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Forex Forum Archive for 04/04/2004

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Shg 23:57 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD supported 7550 focus of economic data this week RBA's decision on interest rates due Wednesday

Melbourne Qindex 23:53 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Taif Imad 22:59 GMT - AUD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 77.91 - 79.13. The odds are on your side to take a short position when the market is trading around 79.

Saihat 23:50 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
stop below 1.3100

Saihat 23:47 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
for demo

may good to long usdcad from 1.3118

Lindstrom MWH 23:47 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Thank you.... Thank you very much

ithaca sjm 23:46 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   

10 day ema 1.3166, 100 day ema 1.3233

If I traded spot (which I rarely do), I would sell $/Cad at 1.3166 up to 1.3200, with a stop behind 1.3233. Then, if 1.3233 holds, move stop down based on hourly/daily movement, based on your trading m.o. & r/r perspective. IMHO happy hunting.

Makati Obelix 23:45 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Oppps. Agree w/ CK. Should be Humble

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:44 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
seem someone is protecting 1.2100 for option magnet...

can anyone update about that 1.2050 DNT expiry?

Makati Obelix 23:44 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
MWH of Lindstrom, IMHO = In My Honest Opinion

pj amc 23:44 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
taif amed...........usd/cad in my opinion is one of the better long positions out there. i am waiting for the ny open to take another look at it but will definitely be going long on that position

Dublin CK 23:43 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry - right hand side

Dublin CK 23:43 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Lindstrom MWH 23:35 GMT April 4, 2004

IMHO - In my humble opinion and yes there is a financial, treasury and political forum.

Click on the links on the left hand side.

Kind Rgds,


Taif Imad 23:40 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello people
What do you think about USD/CAD?
Any commentes are apriciated.
Thank you.

Lindstrom MWH 23:35 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry to be ignorant but what is imho??? And another question do you discuss other stocks/commodities which look good or just stick with the forex?

Lindstrom MWH 23:29 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Strike 179 Expire May

NYC YIPPEE 23:27 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Adding to AUDJPY short at 70... Quicker than I had expected....

ICT ML 23:24 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Lindstrom MWH 23:15
what is your strike price on that put and when does it expire? You stand to make darn good $$$ IMHO.

Taif Imad 23:22 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
What do you think about USD/CAD?
Thank you

Taif Imad 23:15 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
pj amc
Thank you

Lindstrom MWH 23:15 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello peoples, new around here... Personally, right now have put option on GBP/USD bought March 23rd around 184.5 figure it for 179-178.5

pj amc 23:13 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply the ny close

Taif Imad 23:11 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
pj amc Thank you.
When do you excepected to reach that level(65-70 pips)?

ithaca sjm 23:10 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Long on CAD i.e. I would buy c$, sell u.s.$

pj amc 23:08 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply said you had a sell signal on usd/cad but you will only trade long on the position? i am confused

ithaca sjm 23:05 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
sell euor/cad here, s/l 1.5990. sell again below 1.5850 s/l per your R/R. Short small and adding all the way down to 1.5700. Target 1.5350/1.5400 level.. 4 week rule sell signal triggered last week in both euro/cad & $/cad. will only trade from a long CAD perspective until signal reversed.

pj amc 23:00 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
taif opinion would be to short it right here. i think we see at least 65 -70 pips down from here

Taif Imad 22:59 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
Of course I's my resposiblity.but I'm at a critical situation.
Just need your recommendation/advise if you don't mind.
Thank you

Melbourne Qindex 22:56 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Taif Imad 22:52 GMT - You have to take your own risk. I have no idea whether you are a position trader or not. Anyway I don't have a short term cycle analysis for AUD/JPY at this moment.

Taif Imad 22:52 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello Melbourne Qindex
It's now 78.57;is it good to go short?
Thank you

Melbourne Qindex 22:49 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT April 4, 2004
AUD/JPY : The market is vibrating around the quantised level at 79.13 with an expected magnitude of 122 pips, i.e 77.91 - 79.13 - 80.35. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 77.28.

Melbourne Qindex 22:47 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market will penetrate through 126.

taif Imad 22:47 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
pj amc hello
At what level to enter?
"Is it valid now?"

pj amc 22:42 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy looking very, very weak. I say jump on for a quick 75 pip downslide. imho

Shg 22:36 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Airport seeks $2.5bn
Sydney Airport Corporation is planning to raise as much as $2.5 billion through the debt market to repay existing borrowings and build a war chest for future spending.

Melbourne Qindex 22:25 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil (NYMEX - May) : The critical point of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 36.03. The market is under pressure as it is trading below the critical point. It is going to consolidate between the following ranges of 32.91 - 33.69 - 34.47 - 35.25. A projected supporting level is expected at 32.13 - 32.35.

Melbourne Qindex 21:21 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:53 GMT April 4, 2004
AUD/USD : Basically my 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market is currently vibrating around the quantised level at 0.7526 with an expected magnitude of 162 pips, i.e. 0.7363 - 0.7526 - 0.7688.
Melbourne Qindex 23:44 GMT April 3, 2004
AUD/USD : My 44-day cycle charts (2/4) suggest that the market will head for 0.7058 as long as it is trading below 0.7688. A projected resistant point is positioning at 0.7583. The short term target is 0.7321 - 0.7374.

Melbourne Qindex 03:52 GMT April 1, 2004
GBP/JPY : My 44-day cycle (1/4) indicates that there are two key quantised levels, namely 185.44 and 194.64. If the market is trading above the critical level at 192.34 - 192.80, I would assume that the market will head for 194.64 - 196.48. Otherwise GBP/JPY will continue its downward trending movement and head for 185.44. The critical supporting level is expected at 181.28 - 181.77 as suggested by the 22-day cycle (1/4).
Melbourne Qindex 02:58 GMT April 1, 2004
EUR/JPY : My 44-day cycle (1/4) suggests that if the market is trading below 128.30 - 128.37, it has a potential to head for 123.87 - 125.24. The short term target is 126.37 - 126.77.

Melbourne Qindex 10:10 GMT March 20, 2004
EUR/USD : Heading Towards 1.1686?

The distribution profile of my 22-day cycle (19/03) probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1686 - 1.2356. On the way to 1.1686 there are 3 major barrier, namely 1.2222, 1.2088 and 1.1954, for the market to tackle. Other cycle analyses will be used to closely monitor the situation.

Aden PK 21:15 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi freinds, first of all I wish all of you to have a profitable week
I am placing an order to sell Euro/Usd 1.2150 & 1.2188 stop 1.2236 bid target 1.2035 and then 1.1985
Also placing an order to sell GBP/USd at 1.8345 stop 1.8373 bid target 1.8260 & then 1.8175.
Will buy USD/CHF at 1.2885 stop 1.2850 initial target 1.2950 and then 1.3025 (favourable trade for today)

I will take profit on half of the positions on first profit targets hopefully before N.York opened provided stops remain intact.
Once the first target level will be broken the stops will be adjusted above the entry point to protect the equity.

Good luck and Good trades to all of you.

Ltn th 21:07 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
I would be surprised if MOF are out of the intervention business entirely. Last tuesday I had the idea initially, and posted in private emails, that they would hold the range 10375 to 10446 for the first couple of days. When we saw 103.3 I amended this upper limit to 104.6 and
thought that 104.81 may be on their screen as the upper intervention point for friday and start of week.
Whilst they will be testing the water monday. I expect them to still want to return to a nominal 103.8 region within the day. I would be surprised if they maintain the 103.3 as the lower intervention point past mid week. They may then set 103.3 or 10346 as their upper intervention level. MOF is likely to be as zealous defending the upper as the lower levels of their range.
These thoughts are based on necessarily incomplete funnymentals so need to be tempered by TA if being traded on.

Taif Imad 20:53 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
An answer which's not an answer

New York FX Breeze 20:27 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
They're all good if you have them on the right way!!! :)

New York FX Breeze 20:26 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
The 103 area looks like it will be defended. IMHO, the MOF heard too much chatter about the quarter end marking the start of a "rest period" for intervention, and they certainly need to send a message, especially if the latest US payroll figures point towards an accelerated growth path for the US economy.

Taif Imad 20:24 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello people
Any suggestions on which pairs maybe good trades?
Thank you

SF Augustus 18:49 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Despite the talk, in a slow upcoming week, does anyone think that the MOF might want to take advantage of lesser volume and add some juice against the yen? Also, perhaps surprise and front-run expectations of protecting 100, instead attempting to revive 105? All speculation, any thoughts though would be welcomed. Cheers.

GA TJ 18:10 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Non Trade Related:

For all our Aussie Friends one of your native sons is playing in the National College Championship Monday night at 9 PM EST. For those that are not aware his name is Luke Schenser and plays for Georgia Tech.

Roumeli aek 18:02 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
A stagnant market all the week until Thursday . What could be the cause of a drop of a such magnitude , who knows. It seems we have to buy the dollar at any dip. This is a forecast of course.

Spotforex NY 17:40 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Bud - I can only say that that site seems as exciting as watching paint dry.....nice try....updates are quarterly?????

Spotforex NY 17:38 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
BERLIN (AP)--An economic adviser to the German government cast doubt on his panel's 2004 growth forecast in an interview released Sunday, arguing that risks to a recovery in Europe's biggest economy have increased.
The government's five-member council of economic advisers has said it expects growth of about 1.6% this year following three years of stagnation. However, domestic demand has remained weak.

Provo John 17:33 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Oil and Gasoline Futures sell off on waiver hopes

RE: Imad :-) 17:22 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY allways was a good pair :))))

Taif Imad 16:46 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello people
I'm watching this from 2 or 3 months ago.I saw good recomendations from good people here.
After the drop of EUR/USD last week;which pairs do you think are good to trade?
Thank you.

Van jv 16:23 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
sure this need more explanation--not being economist, there any new policy reducing working hours , does this 308k No. is deliberately to explain the two contrary interpretations of empl. data? Will this change outlook?
Quote from center on budget

WASHINGTON, April 2 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Following is a statement from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:

The Labor Department announced today that the nation added 308,000 payroll jobs in March. The report marks the first month of substantial job growth in a previously weak labor market. On closer inspection, however, the good news is much more mixed than it may first appear.

-- Americans are working less, not more, due to shorter average work weeks. The rise in the number of payroll jobs was more than canceled out by a decline in the number of hours worked in the average payroll job (from 33.8 to 33.7 hours per week). The total number of hours worked by all Americans in payroll jobs declined in March, the Labor Department said.

-- The gain of 308,000 payroll jobs, while welcome, was canceled out by equally large losses in self-employment. Although the payroll figures leave out the self-employed, other data in the Labor Department report show that the number of self- employed Americans dropped by 304,000 in March. (Those figures, from a survey of households, show that the overall number of employed Americans was essentially unchanged in March. Like the payroll data, the household survey found that employment other than self-employment rose by about 300,000.) The shift from self-employment to payroll jobs may, in most cases, represent an advance toward more desirable employment, but it is not the pure employment gain it may initially seem.

-- The percentage of Americans at work is the lowest for any March in ten years. Over the past 12 months, gains in employment have not been sufficient to keep pace with normal population growth. The percentage of adults working in March -- 61.9 percent -- is the lowest for any March since 1994. (This figure is not seasonally adjusted.)

-- Long-term unemployment also rose in March. The Labor Department data show that the number of long-term unemployed - those who have been out of work for more than 26 weeks and are still looking for a job -- rose by 117,000 in March. The data also show that the proportion of the unemployed who are long-term unemployed individuals climbed from 22.9 percent in February to 23.9 percent in March.

Houston ST 15:59 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello all. Hope everyone is having a good day, and a prosperous week ahead. To quote Shanghai BC, "good luck & good trades."

Tallinn viies 14:33 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:19 - this is my really humble opinion but there are first signs that we have seen oil highs for the time being. most likely until presidential elections are over. all the spec market is long and their brothers and sisters also because they knew OPEC wanted to cut. now after we saw decision to cut all the guys wants to see higher prices but there no buyers at those levels. market has moved to other phase...
knowing that oil issue will become second issue in presidential campaign after employent, Im in belief that Bush will do everything to stop further oil upmove.

Quito Valdez 12:39 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
dumb question: when (GMT) does trading start world wide on USA Sunday...Asian session...?

Melbourne Qindex 11:35 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT April 4, 2004
AUD/JPY : The market is vibrating around the quantised level at 79.13 with an expected magnitude of 122 pips, i.e 77.91 - 79.13 - 80.35. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 77.28.

shanghai bc 10:19 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   

Oil,commodities,Yen and Euro..Yen has been putting heavy pressure on all its crosses for a while while it floats with Oil and commodities at presents..It is highly unlikely MoF folks will do much till Usd/Jpy 100 line is reached..Even then,if Oil and commodities shoot up further,they will at most try to control the speed of Yen rise rather than trying to defend 100 at any cost..And this Yen/Oil gambit by Japan will put heavy pressure on Eur/Jpy in coming days too checking any attempt by Eur/Usd to hold its head above water..That is till Japan changes its forex strategy or till Oil and commodity prices stabilize..Pound,Aud and Cad may stay reasonably firm against Euro and Usd while being pressured by Yen..

Melbourne Qindex 03:36 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Disclaimer : All rights reserved. I assume no responsibility for any error and am not liable for any damage that may result from the use of this information.

Melbourne Qindex 02:39 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.7165 is also a key quantised level in my system.

Melbourne Qindex 00:57 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:53 GMT April 4, 2004
AUD/USD : Basically my 44-day cycle reference indicates that the market is currently vibrating around the quantised level at 0.7526 with an expected magnitude of 162 pips, i.e. 0.7363 - 0.7526 - 0.7688.

pj amc 00:21 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
Raven...............extremely well said

hk ab nzd 0.6 00:04 GMT April 4, 2004 Reply   
london 10:20 GMT April 3, 2004
By Arloc Sherman link

Unfortunately, I feel that people are founding "explanation" to explain the surprise to push USD down.....

though myself not believing the number too, but using the hrs to explain for the rosy rise is not something tasty.


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