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Forex Forum Archive for 04/12/2004

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LTN th 23:55 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
SNP // I have cable and AUDUSD lookinh like they want to go in different directions at a fair rate. I agree with martin about a lot of big ticket items which on the whole should eventually be AUD nett +ve, but the timing in the short term (week) is crucial. The probability and opportunities of reinvestment within AUD could skew things further.

LAX-LGB SNP 23:46 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
TH ... AG
find it hard to justify selling GBPUSD and AUDUSD till we start closing below March's open/close levels ... the last 12 days have seen price fall from highs but the market seems inclined to send them higher ahead of last month's levels

EUR - on the other hand has broken past March's EURUSD levels and resting on EURGBP, EURCHF double bottom ... if they go then the market will dive-bomb a la german Stuka ;-)

LTN th 23:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 23:16 GMT// What do you make of cables hourly chart in conjunction with 4 hr?

SHg 23:27 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD will likely extend losses, with players expected to continue buying USD on brightening U.S. economic outlook, says Daiwa Securities SMBC's Mitsuo Imaizumi. Adds strong U.S. March retail figure expected 1230 GMT. Says EUR/USD could try key support at 1.2000 in Asia; break below there expected to trip some stop orders, then send EUR/USD to 1.1987. Reuters//

CAIRO AG 23:16 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Khalid// Just looked at the 4h on Cable.... IMO, look for a break of 1.8410 on the upside or 1.8330 on the downside... and FOLLOW for some nice pips... AGAIN, thats my personel opoinion....GL & GT

Shg 22:46 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--Gunmen released seven Chinese men in central Iraq Monday, a day after seizing them amid a wave of abductions of foreigners, the Chinese government said.

The men "were safe now," the government's Xinhua News Agency said, citing China's chief diplomat in Iraq, Sun Bigan.

Belgium sidekick 22:11 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Asian Bids Protect 1.2050:
Asian bids seen in EUR/USD at 1.2055; Stops eyed starting
at 1.2045

CAIRO AG 21:50 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Khalid// Thats the market my friend..... but:
1- Aussie short from 0.7688, if seen, with a sl 25 p is not gonna be that bad.
2- A Cad long from here for a 40-70 p target... is not bad either, sl 1.3217
3- A short on Cable from here with a sl at 1.8450 SHOULD not be bad as well.

Good Luck

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 21:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
florida, or new york imho

Riyad Khalid 21:45 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Would any one tell to where the following pairs heading:
eur/usd
aud/usd
usd/cad
Thanks

Riyad Khalid 21:43 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Would any one tell to where the following pairs heading:
eur/usd
aud/usd
usd/cad
Thanks

GVI john 21:43 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2075…$/yen 105.45
DJIA 10,516, +74 pts…NASDAQ 2,065, +13 pts
10-yr 4.23%, +4 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
See full text on GVI..

ICT ML 21:40 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
bailed on the gbp short.......got better things to do this evening than babysit an iffy position. Will catch you guys in Ldon session or late Asia.

CAIRO AG 21:21 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Well looks like we will see a TOUGH TRADING 10 days...!!!

Gen dk 20:48 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Valdez 20:42 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Riyad// most mkts closed or nearly closed actually...Monday is a continuation of the world wide Easter Egg hunt. LOL What's left is a strange mkt.

Riyad Khalid 20:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello
Market & platform are dea :(
There're many -ve's on the dead screen. :o(
What's the matter?

ICT ML 20:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hat....nice to see ya again. My stuff started turning on a monthly chart basis in Jan. and has continued to turn U$D positive vs GBP in March.....so we'll see what happens. Once the range breaks it should move at a rapid clip I think......

Hope you got out okay on those gbp shorts last week...got pretty hairy for a day or two there....LOL

Ldn Hat 19:59 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 19:28 How r u doing? I am looking at the same, I have a turnaround for Dollar singal at the end of the next week tops, other external factors excluded, so lets see what happens ;-)

CAIRO AG 19:37 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML// LOL... hahaha

ICT ML 19:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AG....it could take quite awhile to get down there...so 2005-6 is entirely valid...your friend from the UAE:-)?

CAIRO AG 19:25 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Well ML, that reminds me with a VERY GOOD FRIEND OF MINE HERE... he was seeing the same but think he was talking end 2006...

GL & GT

ICT ML 19:23 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AG if you meant Eur-Usd.....I think 1.1200 is a nice place to rest on it if it fails to bounce out of 1.1850-75 hard.

ICT ML 19:22 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
.6000 to start without blinking an eye AG. A bold target, but WTH....been right about it all year so far :-)

CAIRO AG 19:20 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML// IF u re SHORTING EurPound, while seeing 1.7350 happening soon... THAN WHATS R TARGET ON THE POOR EURO IN THIS CASE??)) thanks my friend..

ICT ML 19:20 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Time frame on cable is sometime towards the end of this week I think....but note, I do not have real conviction on this view just yet, it is only a small position I took today and won't keep it long if wrong, which could be.

HKG SK 19:15 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
What is your time frame for Cable to dip to your targe 1.7900??

ICT ML 19:13 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Well AG..sometime in this or next month I want to buy a bounce off 1.7350 on cable. Whether or not that ever happens I don't know yet.....as long as 1.8600 keeps it capped there is a chance.

I would expect another trip to the range bottom soon, 1.7900-8000 area though.

or 19:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Must have been me who paid you for that cable ML hehe. But if 1.8380 breaks ill be selling it too :)

CAIRO AG 19:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML// Let me thank u for sharing the info... appreciated my friend.

BTW ML, u still looking for 1.7900 in Cable? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:08 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone tough day to trade in this thin market think I will extend my weekend for now have a good day.

ICT ML 19:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AG...sold a bit of cable at 82 here, decent R/R on it stop just above session high.

or 19:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AG unless you were buying yen today it was extremely slow for everyone lol. Volume will pick up in Asia but you may have to give it some more time.

CAIRO AG 18:57 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, that should be " a SHORT RUN"

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 18:55 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
.7690? okdokey

CAIRO AG 18:51 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
or// YEP... i agree... am waiting for that 0.7690 since 15 hors now...!!!

Cable doesnt look like it ll long, and if it does, think it ll be ahort run anyways...IMHO of course.

GL & GT

HKG SK 18:50 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Time to short Cable. Looking for at least 120 pips by European opening tomorrow. 1.8280.

or 18:43 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Aussie is meandering around 0.7670-75 area waiting for cable to move higher before it has a run at 0.7690. But you are right its not really doing much of anything although the ticker on GV is stuck.

London Misha 18:40 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD$ 0.7670 - 73 indic

Belgium sidekick 18:39 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
port jeff ny amc 18:36 GMT
Thanks for sharing your opinion.
I always hate it when a pair lags around a psychological barrier like 1.8400 :(

port jeff ny amc 18:36 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Belgium.............I agree that it does look overbought and ripe for a pullback. imo

CAIRO AG 18:33 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Is the AUSSIE not moving as in here on GV as well as my platform...or it really not ALIVE??

Belgium sidekick 18:32 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Any idea if cable will break through 1.8400?
I still have a long in play, but technicals seem overbought.

CAIRO AG 18:15 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML// On last trading day just before the weekend, was telling to a friend of mine that i think we will see that GBPYEN at 197.xx today where it should offer a good SHORT..... having said that, I Shorted a very small position today at 195.10 with a sl at 195.48.... but due to the fact that i was under the imprewssion that it will long, i closed my shorts at 194.58 !!! However, am HAPPY...still being in the green s mch nicer than the RED...LOL?
Have a great trading week..& Good Luck.

Gen dk 18:10 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 17:58 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AG...thanks much!....I am not really sure on cable right now. I am/was sure of eur-gbp tanking today though but don't know ifit breaks .6550 this time.

I thought there was a chance to buy 195.50 for 197.50 on gbp-jpy today too and that didn't happen.

CAIRO AG 17:56 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML// HAPPY EASTER... BTW, what do think of cable from here?
TIA

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 17:51 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
well i guess ill eat at mc donalds tonight aud/usd + 4pips

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 17:40 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
is that all she is going to give back

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 17:30 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
their she blows

port jeff ny amc 17:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
i apoligize.............7677/82....mine was stuck also

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 17:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
i have aud/usd .7678/7683

port jeff ny amc 17:05 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
.7665/70

washington MMM 17:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Guys...whats the AUD/USD quote now my platform is stuck.........
thanks

Dallas GEP 16:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Aussie I feel will at least test that .7690 level Will short from there

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 16:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
but target below .7550 ?

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 16:46 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
short aud/usd .7675

mex sjs 16:32 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
just shorted audusd here at .7665 stop .7700 tgt below .7550...

ICT ML 16:22 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
correction on last post...1.3475 target not 1.8475....(too many gbp trades in my head)...LOL

ICT ML 16:21 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
sjs...I calculated a flagpole target at 1.8475 area, and think that is a good TP place myself...could see it overshoot to 1.3500.

Shg 16:18 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD IMM data released on Friday show a rough doubling of net long
AUD positions, which may leave the market vulnerable to a nasty pullback if we
cannot clear the recent 0.7690/95 top. Short term support is at 0.7620, with key
medium term support at 0.7575/80.
IFR

mex sjs 16:18 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, what is ur tgt on your long usdcad? am also long from 3306, waiting for 1.34 to go, so 1.3550-1.36 ..lets see

ICT ML 16:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
well just came in, my buystop entry $CAD at 1.3315 filled but the limit sell entry Eur-Gbp at .6600 did not......bummer as that one was going to be the $$$ maker I thought.

staying away from the majors for now due to geopol happenings.

Shg 15:58 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
PREVIEW: Australian House Finance Likely Down In Feb-ap

Ldn 15:43 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Two Czech Journalists Missing, Believed Kidnapped In Iraq

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:40 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
hello.. good evening my friends.

Minneapolis U-Genius 15:37 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello, Does anyone looking to go long at some point with Eur/Jpy?
IMHO it's getting oversold.
Any comments appreciated.

Ldn 15:31 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
NYC cheers


US Generals Claim Tenuous Cease-Fire In Fallujah

NYC 15:29 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
.7664-68

Ldn 15:29 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Iraqi Insurgents Attack US Military Supply Lines

Ldn 15:27 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Anyone with correct Aud getting enormous spread

Dallas GEP 15:08 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Looking at these levels:
1.2075 short on Eur/USD
1.2830 long on USD/CHF
1.8355 short on GBP/USD

Euro right now probably prefferred possie

Dallas GEP 14:58 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello friends. Well the USD/CAD SHORT from Friday stopped out at BE. The JPY pairs were the only movers really during late asia to MID london.

A gbp/jpy short (not posted) from 195.10 closed at 194.58. And a USD/JPY short from 106.58 closed @ 106.20.

Ldn 14:37 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
The body of a civilian contractor has been found on the outskirts of Baghdad, NBC news has learned, cable TV station MSNBC reported Monday.

Shg 14:22 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD 0.7700(lge).NY

Shg 14:20 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD option expiring NY Cut 77.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 14:15 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
and when i see perfect trades and i dont pull the trigger they go perfect but when i trade them its like a gremblin sitting inside my computer

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 14:13 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
never cease to amaze me how i can be so right when i read the news and be so wrong when i make a trade !! lol

Houston ST 13:32 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
shanghai, thanks. gt this week.

Quito Valdez 13:31 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
thanks bc.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 13:30 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
1.0450 to 1.0650 pretty big range

Gen dk 13:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

shanghai bc 13:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

ST -- Good evening..Eur/Jpy 1.2750-1.2700 may have some support this week and stabilize Usd/Jpy in 104.50-106.50 region..Good trades..

VALDEZ -- Good evening..Euro and its satelite currencies moving around Euro in EZ..In Asian Zone,even Aud and Nzd are treated as Asain currencies by real money folks..

Quito Valdez 13:27 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Qindex// right...and thanx.

Melbourne Qindex 13:24 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market can easily retreat further down to 1.2035. It has a potential to test the supporting strength of 1.2005.

Sydney M 13:24 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Strictly speaking, no they not, but I do believe bc, included them.

Can someone enlighten me on gen dk last update, does he mean we should exit the current 1.8360 GBP/USD short position asap?

Melbourne Qindex 13:24 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market can easily retreat further down to 1.2035. It has a potential to test the supporting strngth of 1.2005.

Melbourne Qindex 13:23 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market can easily treat further down to 1.2035. It has a potential to test the supporting strngth of 1.2005.

Quito Valdez 13:19 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
I've been trading for 8 years (my sole income as of late) but not in this forum and not using a broker...just cash. Like now, hence my limited vocab. Getting a broker in June. Just discovered GVI a month ago. Nice place to hang out! , thanks for the help too everyone...need all I can get! :^)

NYC NYC 13:18 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
UK (GBP) is not part of the Euro Zone. Neither is Switzerland (CHF).

Sydney M 13:15 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EZ = Euro Zone, in other words GBP, CHF etc. . .

NYC NYC 13:14 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito. I assume you haven't been trading forex for 8 years. EZ = Euro Zone

Quito Valdez 13:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
I haven't seen "EZ" in 8 yrs of trading...what c'ncy is that please...4give my ignorance.

Houston ST 13:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc, good morning. your thoughts specifically for usd/jpy this week would be appreciated and helpful. gl/gt and good day.
thanks.

sng km 13:06 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
thanks ...another interesting cross is eur aud..looks broken down

shanghai bc 13:03 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good evening..Usd/EZ is not that weak and likely to get a good support in coming days..Usd/Asia is very weak and likely to be weaker in coming days..The pig in the middle, Eur/Jpy and Eur/Aud, may be slaughtered ..And EZ currencies get weaker on all fronts except the Pound..Asian,Usd and EZ currencies in the order of their strength in coming weeks and that is where the hot money is heading..

Quito Valdez 13:03 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Yes, still holding euro long.

SNG, my chart says low on GBP/CHF was 2.3497.

Minneapolis U-Genius 13:01 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez// Are u stilll holding your EUR/USD long?

sng km 12:45 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Can anyne please tell me what was low gbp chf in last one hour please? many thanks

Gen dk 12:45 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nzd 0.6 12:38 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
bc// good evening. Do u expect buying dollar over the summer sounds better?


nt// I am sorry, I have hurt my right ankle and think I can't join all of you now. Too sad.

Gen dk 12:36 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Valdez 12:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Reuters: just in: Dupont to cut 6% workers.

Bkk Cad 12:17 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/YEN any views out there on this level of support right here not holding? Gulp!

shanghai bc 12:14 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

Kuroda of MoF of japan expects Dollar would rise before the coming summer..Presumably,without him lifting a phone..Fwiw..

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 12:12 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
good morning

GVI john 11:37 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2075…$/yen 106.200
DJIA +7 pts… 10-yr 4.19%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
London and Frankfurt markets are closed today but a few European centers are open. The absence of London will keep trading interest at a minimum today. Note also that no major data are due from the U.S. as well. We do expect a return to a measure of normalcy by Tuesday when Australia and Hong Kong reopen for the new week also.

The first major highlight of this week is the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy decision Tuesday at 12:00 GMT. The Bank of Canada targets its own measure of core inflation at the mid-point of a 1-3% range. Bank of Canada February Core CPI was a meager 1.1% yr/yr, and March employment fell unexpectedly by 13,300. The markets have fully priced in a 25bp fall in the target rate for overnight funds to 2.00%. The only major question in my mind is what is implied for policy subsequently. I think another cut may have to be considered. There has been a random quality to the price action in the Canadian dollar recently.

I think the March U.S. CPI figure on Wednesday could prove worthy of note. Watch the “core” rate. A spike in this figure would be hard for the Fed to explain away. Once inflation gets imbedded in the system, it can become very difficult to root out. This figure must be viewed in the context of future monthly job reports. The Fed cannot continue to pursue its ultra-easy monetary policy indefinitely. At some point it will be forced to return to a neutral policy posture, and odds are when the time is right that this could be an abrupt adjustment.

As for the dollar, the market has grown weary and leery of the euro. The ECB stubbornly has been pursuing a monetary policy that is too tight in Europe, plus Europe faces major structural rigidities. The market wants to trade a relative growth scenario now but that does not always work. Odds are that Iraq will start to fade again as an issue in fairly short order. I think the abduction of civilians could backfire on the terrorists because no government can be seen caving in to blackmail. No major data are due from the U.S. today, nor are any key officials slated to appear.
CALENDAR
MONDAY, APRIL 12, 2004
Easter Monday Holiday—AUS, GER. UK
No Key U.S. data Due

TUESDAY, APRIL 13, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- CGPI
01:30 GMT- AUS- Feb Housing Finance, vs. -8.1%
01:30 GMT- AUS- NAB Business Survey
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Retail Sales: vs. +0.6%, +0.0% ex-autos Feb, see +0.6%, +0.6%
13:00 GMT- CDA- BOC Monetary Policy Announcement
14:00 GMT- US- Feb Business Inventories and Sales
18:00 GMT- US- March Treasury deficit

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 14, 2004
JPN- Minutes of 2/26 & 3/15-3/16 BOJ Meeting
RBA Governor Macfarlane speaks in Sydney
06:50 GMT- FRA- Mar preliminary CPI: vs. +0.5%, +1.8% y/y in Feb
14:30 GMT- CDA- Feb Trade, vs. +C$5.2 bln
11:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
12:30 GMT- US- Mar CPI: vs. +0.3%, +0.2% ex-food & energy, see +0.3%, +0.1% ex-food & energy
12:30 GMT- US- Feb Trade vs. -$43.1 bln in Jan, see - $42.5 bln
13:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories

THURSDAY APRIL 15, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
RBA- Monthly Bulletin
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT- US- Apr Empire State manufacturing Index: vs. 25.3 in Mar
16:00 GMT- US- Apr Philadelphia Fed Survey: vs. 24.2 in Mar
14:30 GMT- CDA- BOC Monetary Policy Report

FRIDAY, APRIL 16, 2004
04:30 GMT- JPN- Feb Industrial Output (rev), vs. +3.3%
08:30 GMT- UK- Mar Unemployment: vs. -6,600 in Feb
09:00 GMT- EUR- Mar final CPI: vs. preliminary +1.6% y/y
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Housing Starts: vs. 1.855 mln in Feb, see 1.910 mln
13:15 GMT- US- Mar Industrial Production: vs. +0.7% in Feb, see +0.2%
13:15 GMT- US- Mar Capacity Utilization: vs. 76.6% in Feb, see 76.6%
13:45 GMT- US- Early-Apr Univ of Michigan Cons Sent: vs. 95.8 Mar, see 95.5

Melbourne Qindex 11:23 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:44 GMT April 12, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2005 - 1.2066...............................................

Dublin Flip 11:20 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Appreciateed Martin and th.
Yeah there are no free bets in this business and today's paradigm becomes tommorrow's obsolete rationale- LOL. Martin you are right that flows always overule any fundamental theories how well thought out they may appear. I do also believe that the local Ozzie market is getting progersively beared up on watching euro come lower the past few weeks. There have been so many opportunities to get short on the "mimic trade" I can't believe that the locals aren't short. Obviously could be wrong, but also given Cable is still hanging tough above 1.83, if Euro squeezes back above 1.2160 when the market reopens in earnest this week, ozz will take out 77c pretty convincingly. Anyway better hop, all this holiday yip-yap is bad for ones social life.
Be lucky

Gold Coast martin 11:17 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
LTN...just an example of japanese relocation....info i have received states that a large joint venture between an australian and japanese company in relation to farming southern blue fin tuna has been terminated..it was done 2 years ago but with the glut of tuna on the jap market from spain and mexico it has made this joint venture not viable.Tuna exports to japan are worth 845 mill.aud to the australian economy plus...this is just one of many examples that will occur in the near to medium term but it is not visible to the market trader and therfore its impact on the currency cannot be assesed but only felt after the fact....this week promises to be a volatile week indeed and the harsh reality is that traders with small capital outlays will get blown away ..so the safest thing to do is to wait until the end of the week when the market trend has emerged and go from there...g/l

LTN th 11:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:49 // I dont have details but a big item on rural programmes in Oz today has been large reassesment up of yields for wheat, sorgum and oilseeds for coming seasons. You may already have the figures. A negative might be if Cheney convinces Japs to relax 100% inspection on US beef despite US consumers themselves switching to pork.

Quito Valdez 11:03 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
LTN..right. Me 2. Note EUR/CAD..rose in past few hours 268 pips...this chart usually leads the EUR/USD chart as an indicator. That being true (this time anyway) look for proximal rise in EUR/USD chart. There are a fair amount of EUR longs coming across ready; as someone said below this is a week of up up up then possible profit taking sell of of EUR Fri on good econ news from USA. Any comment? Any hot coffee!!

Gold Coast martin 10:59 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN...flip..your thoughts are exactly according to current fundamentals...on the surface it appears the aud is pretty good hedging for all the reasons that you stated.....my strategy has been formed mainly by the japanese asset relocation information but i do have to take the fundamentals you have mentioned into account...such a large relocation in assets within a short time frame would influence the aud and will override most positive aud fundamentals in the short to medium term...g/l g/t

LTN th 10:52 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Martin// thanks. It is sure going to be an interesting week. For small traders like me it is probably a matter of stop management and being ready to adjust them fast enough to stay in for the big profits.

Dublin Flip 10:49 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Martin I'm not sure what allocation story you are running with but the economic numbers out of US if anything are supportive of Ozz. While the numbers out of the states continue to reinforce economic vigour along with similar in Asia (including Japan) there seems to be plenty of natural insatiable support. The obvious 4.5% differential makes it an obvious parking spot for cash during uncertainty (as Kiwi and Cable have been) and while it may come off with a clearing of the geo-political air that just isn't in the offing at the moment. I do think the biggest risk to ozz would be a reversal of fortunes for the commodities (e.g. CRB) but given ozzie has actually underperformed the gold and virtually all corresponding commodity indexes I think she could have less downside and the range trading may continue.
I realise you have based your directional bias on Japanese reallocation beliefs but I'd be assuming we are talking about future O/S earnings and therefore where those funds may or may notget parked and not necessarily where present funds get moved. Given Australia's strong position and the present beliefs that inflation (if only import driven at this stage) is taking hold than it would appear the hedge many in Asia (and others) just have to have is to buy ozz. I'm actually pretty bullish ozz against most.

Ldn 10:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Terrorist chemical threat 'worse than suspected'
LINK

Quito Valdez 10:26 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
"The rising number of foreign civilians being abducted in Iraq will eventually weigh on the dollar." said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase.
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2004/04/11/rtr1328577.html

Gold Coast martin 10:12 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
LTN..i am not referring to the timor sea situation....it is simply taking into account the economic releases out of the u.U.S, as well as the current situation of asset relocation out of aus. by japanese institutions and the worldwide geopoliticals.This points out to a drop in the aud to 7150 and nzd in 10 trading sessions...i posted this last week.....g/l g/t

LTN th 09:48 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
meant 500 or 600 pips.

Sydney alimin 09:46 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
this week eur/usd maybe similar to last week scenario, up up up early week and sell off friday when data come out

Quito Valdez 09:45 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs..en char. thanks amigo!

LTN th 09:45 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 02:48 // I wonder if you may be referring to Timor sea boundaries and oil? If so most of this has already been factored in by the market. There may be a very short -ve glitch on thursday but one would need to be very quick to take any profits. If your broker is iffy or your t/p stops are to greedy then with likely corrective action the prospect of chasing 50 or 60 big ones in losses is a real danger. Where to set stop loss?

mex sjs 09:38 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
quito you have email....

Quito Valdez 09:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Views confliciting on eur/usd: some say 1.18 or less, others say 1.23. And all with good reason!

Iraq volitile...Iraq civil war probable if Falluja not taken...Iraqi battalion wouldn't support US troops yesterday in Falluja. It's showtime or get off the stage for USA...stalemate in Falluja...Japanese hostages still there, kidnappers lied...Chinese now are held hostage & China opposed the Iraq war(s) and has zero troops there... insurgents/kidnappers totally out of control w/no one in charge...many women/children left in Falluja so coalition can't just level it...losing 10 US troops/day not counting other coalition troops & losing US sentiment in war fast. All this USD neg. data spreads like contagen if coalition doesn't win Falluja soon. Street fighting highly costly. Pop sentiment in most countries and on this forum also -against- more war in Iraq..leave them to their own devices but infection may spread to other Arab countries fast if not handled in Iraq...oil prices then?

USD positive: possible good news from gov stats, Chinese hostages may bring USA and Bejing closer.

Gen dk 09:29 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sgp sp 08:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
JH, yes, I read his posts....compared to last year....it is certainly scarce.....

Brazil, JH 08:41 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
sp, oilman was posting here again last week.

brisbane sunstate 08:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 08:04
us is trading today
gl

Shg 08:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
might be thin trade in US though

Belgrade Knez 08:34 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Shg 08:33 GMT April 12, 2004

Thanks.

Shg 08:33 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez London and Europe closed dont know about US

sgp sp 08:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone here trade usd/zar?

Used to remember Oilman's occasional comments abt this pair. Miss his posts. :(

Melbourne Qindex 08:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 06:03 GMT - EUR/AUD : Thank you for your kind words. The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection profiles is 1.5655 - 1.5860. I just came back from Sydney, so no detailed analysis on this pair is available.

Belgrade Knez 08:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

GVI can you help in following:


Belgrade Knez 08:01 GMT April 12, 2004

Can somebody confirm please:
Does European and US markets working today.
Thank you.

Belgrade Knez 08:01 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   

Can somebody confirm please:
Does European and US markets working today.
Thank you.

hong kong nt 06:49 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
any Hong Kong friends like to join dinner gathering tonight 7:30pm in Causeway Bay ?

HK [email protected] 06:30 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
That is a nice piece.....They are all the same, it is time to get out and leave them to their own mercy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3618949.stm

Iraqi troops reject Falluja duty


US officers say there are risks in training a new army so quickly
A senior US military officer in Iraq has said that a battalion of the new Iraqi army refused to support US forces in the town of Falluja.

HK [email protected] 06:08 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
hyderabad rakesh 03:57 GMT April 12

Sorry for the late response.
I suggest you to inspect the weekly gold chart on different indicators. Looks little bearish. I suspect that we are still in a corrective stage. If the market goes now as I suspect on ..."Buy the rumors sell on the guns", It will really need a test of some firm support. Considering that so many smarts are long time in, and looking for some suckers to rush after them I suspect something like double-topped gold. One cant be too sure of course. On background that traders of other commodities are stunned of high prices like the silver madness rush, I will suggest that all those factors which drived up the market may be soon considered nil. Thus for gold I think back to 390 is possible.

hong kong nt 05:53 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 02:48 -- can you give more details ?

Ldn 05:44 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Explosions In Compound Of US-Led Coalition HQ In Iraq
UK Hoon Warns Of Iraq Civil War If Insurgency Not Stopped

London tigger 05:04 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
can someone tell me what in money management is 50/50/30/12MM ? your help is greatly appreciated.

hyderabad rakesh 03:57 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
HK RF...
hello i am from south asia cud u tell me more about gold how can it move ..the support and ressiantance level ya...thx..

Philippines newtrader 03:22 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD (1.2087)
Weekly forecast
Trading range: 1.1870 – 1.2235
Trend: Neutral
Two main factors affect over the trading and will continue to dominate in the coming week. The continue war in Iraq, where stay much harder with the expectations for withdraw of troops and the expecting moving of new US troops in Iraq. Also the starting positive US fundamental date moves the dollar to levels below the level of 1.2000. For the coming week we expect to see new positive data by US economy, with better US Business Inventories and Retail sales on Tuesday and better Michigan sentiment data. Our trading strategy this week will be to sell at high for new test of 1.2000. We expect to see as low as 1.1870 before to see new upward movement. Some news by Iraq but could move the market and higher before to see new dip below 1.2000.

Updated: Dramatically turning on of the current situation in Iraq could happen with the start of the new week with the situation with the hostages and the ultimatum situation about the troops in Iraq. How seem the deep crisis in Iraq could affect of the dollar much negative and to see jump trading to 1.23 at the start of the week.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast and Analysis
USD/JPY (106.36)
Weekly Forecast
Trading range: 104.75 – 107.55
Trend: Upward
The starting by Friday upward movement will continue and on the start of the coming week. We could see high to 107.45 before to see new downward movement.

Gold Coast martin 02:48 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
HK..AB NZD....good evening.....there are 10 sessions left before doomsday for aud and nzd.....g/l

Quito Valdez 02:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
See you 'round everyone...got to get 6 hrs shuteye before NY opens. Yawn...night night. By then things should be a hoppin', assuming it's not Easter Monday all over the world. I guess one has to be a workin' man to appreciate all the durned holidays.

Quito Valdez 02:23 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GA TJ. We've got a long way to go before 12 noon EST when this mkt may tell us about what it wants to do...and today might be totally opposite the trend too..a lot of panic will go on today and you pip traders should make a bundle with the ensueing volitility range I think we'll have. Who knowz.

GA TJ 02:17 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez
Only thing I got going is Long Swissy from earlier tonight. Have already moved stop to B/E. Waiting for it to breakout of this range and will then add to it. If it does then Euro will do the same. Cable will probably be the last to follow. Thats it. Not very exciting so far.

HK [email protected] 02:16 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
SG Jay 02:12 GMT April 12, 2004

I think that gold is heavily overbought, looks to me that the war fundamentals do not play that important role anymore.
I expect it to correct to about 413. If that breaks see you at 390.

Quito Valdez 02:16 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle// It's work city Monday here. Dunno about the rest of the woild. Sorry for the chat here..can't resist on a quite Sunday night-Mon morn. I'm in my FX chat room if anyone wants...

Quito Valdez 02:14 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
No Sydney...but thanks anyway...no futures for mua...I merely change money in my bank...Euros and USDs. I don't trade like you guys do.. yet...that's coming in June however. I've made 5% in less than 3 weeks..not bad for neanderthal trading. Done it for 8 years now.

Newcastle GH 02:13 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez! Good afternoon to you. Just after midday here now! I was just curious to know if the European and US markets will be in full swing later or are we going to see thin holiday markets on top of the usual Monday type markets. I cnnot remember whether the rest of the world thinks of Easter Monday as back to work or not!

SG Jay 02:12 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
any body have an outlook on gold or silver / $

Bwp Imran 02:12 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
any one is looking for share trade msg me please

Quito Valdez 02:11 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Hk Rf//
YOU'RE a realist! I love it! Same in Vietnam...we paid for it, we didn't rape like the French who were kicked out in 1954. Fond mamories. :`) Is anyone trading anything right now...how bout some action posts!!

Sydney GVM 02:10 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito you do hav ethe ability to hedge on futures - CME globex has been open a few hours now

Quito Valdez 02:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle// Good morning amigo! It's too early I think...my charts don't work either and the Internet is strange...traffic I guess on the w/e. I've lost 30 pips on my Euro long 1.2090...whatever..what do I know? GEP said last Fri that it looked USD bullish to him come Monday but EUR technicals said different. Flip a coin. :^/ WTH. I can't trade at my bank anyway for 12 hours. I could be massacred by then or nice and rich...

HK [email protected] 02:05 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 01:53 GMT April 12, 2004

What evolvement one wants to have. If you want to sleep well in South America there must be some rough guys in Iraq breaking necks for you and me. Sorry that is the sad reality, or the fanatics will be soon everywhere. About positive evolvement(hahahaha), is the discovery by the american army of the power of chocolate, candies and silver dollar (today USD) in laying the enemies girls rather than raping them.

Newcastle GH 02:00 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell what is happening today in terms of market trading today. It is still a national holiday in Australia so things are all closed down here.

Quito Valdez 01:53 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
HD RF//
Interesting responce, thanx 4 Ur input. Mankind hasn't evolved much in the last 250k years, have we? Since Europe AND the USA are vulnerable to attack, wonder if CHF wouldn't be a good base c'ncy? I don't think this war will end soon..maybe this particular phase in Iraq...this year, but I have a gut feeling this Islam vs. Christians & Israel will be a festering uncurable sore for a long time. Glad I live in Latin Am.

HK [email protected] 01:43 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Giving weight to war fundamental in trading. One has to weigh the American response in Fallugah. Two weeks ago I posted something which was removed later. But I think it worth mentioning again; the old American war principle."You kill one of ours we shall kill one hundred of yours". This has been clearly demonstrated in the battle of Fallugah, in response of killing and mutilating American citizens. If the North Korean want to know what will happen to them if they will use nuclear weapons, the last fallugah massacre is a good reminder. If the Shiits will continue their way of killing and mutilating, they have to know what awaits them.
About one hundred years ago in response of killing and MUTILATING the bodies of 54 American soldiers in Balangiga of Samar Island in the Philippines general Smith (More known as Smith Howling wilderness) gave the order: "Kill and burn..." Smith said "the more you kill and burn the more you'll please me." When asked the age limit for killing, he said, "Everything over ten." The order from Smith was that Samar becomes a "howling wilderness" so that "even the birds could not live there."
When American rage breaks out, also Fallugah will turn to a “HOWLING WILDERNESS”. So weighing now the war: Rage of the Americans against the fear of the Iraqis, things will be in balance for at least few days. In that balanced situation one can concentrate on Technicals and worry not of fundamentals.


EUR/JPY Immi 01:42 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
any technical comments on EUR/JPY ?

HK [email protected] 01:35 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
1.2070 is the current value of the neckline let us wait and see.

Shg 01:34 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD And NZD Rise On The Back Of Japanese Buying

ICT ML 01:31 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
TJ..yes, I'll send it via email

ICT ML 01:31 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
TJ...yes, it is a bit early on it, but I think it capped at 47...Friday high...at least that is my play on it right now...


Good luck to all this week.

GA TJ 01:29 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
What is this "Mahdre' (spelling?) thing in the M.E...."

Got any specifics i can go read?

GA TJ 01:28 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ML

The new toy has not flashed a sell on Cable yet. But it looks like it might happen in a couple of hours. It did flash a buy for Swissy and i took it at 1.2832.

ICT ML 01:21 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Sold some cable at 1.8340 a few mins ago...will keep it unless the hourly RSI TL I am playing breaks.

Looking to sell some euro before Ldn comes in as well.

Read an interesting thing about this Mahdre' (spelling?) thing in the M.E....one of the preparations for the prophecy's fullfillment was for Arabs to sell their Euros and buy Gold........HMMM....

RF..agreed....too many things point to it (euro) falling in my techs...but there is always the chance we are wrong.......

CAIRO AG 01:17 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
ab// fact, we shold start seeing some doji's soon on this pair.... anyways, i think just below the 0.7700 might be a good short. GL& GT

Quito Valdez 01:16 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
HK RF//
Right. That's the real delima...bull or bear Euro. It could very well go to what you said..low in the middle teens. And to 1.23. Sheesh. Secret is when? :^0

Oh well, that's FX. Currencies are not backed much by prec. metals so it's merely the whim of the market that moves things. I predict there will be a LOT of money won and lost in the next month's trading.

BWP Imran 01:15 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
any idea about
EUR/USD?
Please give some good comments

HK [email protected] 01:09 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
I prefer to look on the Euro hourly chart rather than the war fundamentals. The war as I mentioned B4 is like a chewing gum which has lost it's flavor. There are so many Tech. attracting the Euro lower, and one threat is the bearish hourly H&S. One needs only patience and go by the K.I.S principle. The only serious current dispute among different analysts is, wheter the Euro will rebound or continue it's way sown to 1.12

hk ab .6 nzd 01:07 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
martin// how many sessions are left for your aud and nzd drop target?

Quito Valdez 00:47 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
spring/hill//

Another thing...around 12 noon EST things usually become more stable during the NY session and take form...range trading/pip snatching before then. Keyword: "usually". Keep an eye on this forum and check the free Financial forum occasionally for posts. Also mid week things calm down a lot of times to where you can see what direction things are headed without all the volitility. Use 1 hr 30 day charts, 1 hr 2 day chart. For this I like line charts best rather than candle or bar...pers pref only. Then also use 1 min 2 hr candlestick too.

Quito Valdez 00:40 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
spring hill//
Browse the archives of the last few trading days last week (Tues, Weds Thurs), see commentary on your question. About half are dollar bulls, the other half are Euro bulls coming out of Easter w/e. I haave Euro long at 1.2090 because I figured that on the outside chance that the USA would have been attacked on Easter, the Euro would be safe haven. Also the war isn't going well and that is USD neg. For those two reasons and nothing more I longed USD apparently like you did as well. Most of the big boys feel the Euro will flower in the proximal days to come but this pal is FOREX...ya neva really know. Remember the asian session is usually dollar bullish in effort to keep the USD up and therefore a good market for them to export to the USA. On all these accounts, don't panic. If it takes its time to ride to 1.22 or 1.23 as predicted, fine, no sweat, wait it out. I've got other things I can do in the meantime myself..dunno about you.

Minnesota Mark 00:06 GMT April 12, 2004 Reply   
Anyone holding or looking at GBP/USD positions? If so what indications do ye see? I'm still blindly holding out on my shorts looking for 179-180.

 




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