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Forex Forum Archive for 04/17/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:54 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The sequence of movement between 1.1694 - 1.1785 - 1.1876* - 1.1968 - 1.2059 is going to be in a form of random walk. Other short term cycle analyses will be used to follow the market movement.

Melbourne Qindex 23:45 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Interpretation of the Following Equation

The market is going to vibrate around the 44-day cycle quantised level at 1.1876 with an expected magnitude of +/- 183 pips. Projected supporting point and resistant point is positioning at 1.1511 and 1.2241 respectively. The market rhythm of the 44-day cycle is represented by 365 pips. The following equation is still valid for another 22 trading days.

Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT April 17, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference (17/03)

... 1.1511* ... // 1.1694 - 1.1785 - 1.1876* - 1.1968 - 1.2059 // ... 1.2241* ...

nyc sa 20:47 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
oilman ,thnx for the enlightening posts re -euro. What about swissie , do u feel it will ultimately break 1.3070 ? if the dollar uptrend against euro continues ? I understood u to say sell euro on strength up to 1.25 ,do u see it at 115 before 1.25 ? that should take $/chf to 1.35 first before 1.25 ? I know things aren't that simple as u rightly said ,but u seem to have a better view of the big picture than many of us .Also what's ur view on cable?

UAE oil man 19:33 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:54 GMT April 17, 2004

Hi there biscuit boy, Long time no "see"...Hope everything is running fine out there for you...I posted a market exchange reality few days ago(as someone said market went up "cause there were more buyers than sellers" which is completly wrong and so i went on the "simple" concept of an exchange market..(simple only in it's the simple concept in itself is not understood at buyer one seller...200 buyers 1 seller for the same amount as the buyers..etc..Exchange.)..)..This is a continuation...just getting more into our favoritve subject the Dollar..

Bris th 19:23 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
UAE oil man 16:47 GMT April 17, 2004

Bris th 19:22 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
UAE oil man ..Great post mate..

Dublin CK 19:16 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Oilman,Biscuit boy, Valdez & Jay (on GVI), very good posts.

Thank you all, I am learning more everyday.Its still not enough, but.....

One day ill crack this forex nut.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:54 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Oilman for reminding me how this game is really played. Just recently I am understanding how the 5% need that nice liquidity to enter/exit positions efficiently and how little Friday afternoon moves in thin markets are useless indicators and mean nothing to the larger trend.

I now understand those 5% have been gradually booking their LARGE profits and this has required the 95% to be on the other end of these trades i.e. the 95% buying on dips at these "bargain" levels allowing the 5% to realise their very respectable profits from much lower levels.

Thanks for the lessons!

UAE oil man 18:16 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Well everything under 1.25 is a good place to sell..once that number is might be a good point to think about longs for 1.50...meanwhile the direction is down as of now.

hk ab .6 nzd 17:39 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
oilman, that means a violent upmove is pending from 1.15-1.2 again?
To make those 95% believe it will blast the 1.3 line fast? TIA.

UAE oil man 16:47 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
The real players (the ones with the big lines..the 5% winners in the world), will transform their book profits(called the paper-profits by some) , in the coming months, how will they do this?.....Well while the 95% of the rest of the world buy a "cheap" euro (hey it was s now 1.20 s a bargain...then 1.15...etc...till another real bullish $ sentiment is made by the public..where the 5% will turn and go the other way..the number never foreseen but the price movement will be ..And some Technical analysis method will have found the bottom ...and it will get New adherants...offcourse the said method never to work again..), they will unload their euro long position slowly has not to rush the market in a major way..just a bit more than what the 95% of the public buys and offcourse whipsaws will happen as the with them they can sell again from a higher's not feasable to sell big lines from the "top" have to do it when the market goes down..(while the 95% are now buying...Remember they were selling the will buy the descent)..

Then why did i hint at Selling E$ 1.25-1.35 in december?..Well I felt the reversal was bound to happen..The extreme and the public view was changing..Offcourse i couldnt know where (at what price) it would happen...(that the 95% say ok this is it will go up let's stop shorting and buy ....and where the 5% will START booking/selling..) a big way i was wrong to start shorting the move as i should just have waited for the direction to be down..The only way to learn it is to pay for it..

Since the move is down and positions from the 5% are being cashed, it s very wise to follow the move, remember the Real money isnt made on a 60 pips gain on a friday afternoon, or from bottom or top pickers...but on directional trades that can go Well over few big points..

I hope this can help some traders, and good luck !

prague viktor 16:38 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT: I agree with u I was looking to 1,425,but the timing if it will be after 6 m or after 2years that is the problem ...G/L

hk ab .6 nzd 14:15 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
nk//seems you are on the upside bias, 1.3458?

saloniko 2004 nk..1.3458 10:17 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning...

Lets get loud one more time in this critical 200*4* year..

Euro had Kiss 1.2888 last months...
and i rememper i said very clear that the way for 1.3058 was open..

$ came on the game on all fronts..AND this make $Bulls smile..

200*4* the year of the double or nothing..??or the year..of "buy high/sell low accident waiting to happen.." ??


HK [email protected] 08:31 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 05:08 GMT April 17

What will bring the Euro to 1.5641? It is not ECB policy nor FED Decisions. It is the potential raging power of cup & handle which has created that enormous powerful price catapulta.

You wrote .. "it can't happen", but sh*t can happen” Just go to DM value at Sep1992 which was the equivalent of>>>> 1.4575 Euro today.
To prevent it (temporarily) from happening there is only one simple way. Push down the EURO price below that line and then continue driving the Euro down as possible causing interest in the USA to shoot up rapidly… loss of jobs, bond, stocks housing and other bubbles melt down and then faster back to above 1.5641 and above and above. And on the longer term one will be able to use 100USD bills as a starter for bonfire.
Nothing to worry, the market will take care of itself and everything will be allright!!!

Melbourne Qindex 08:31 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My daily cycle charts suggest that the odds are good to maintain a short position if the market fails to overcome the projected resistance at 1.2005 or EUR/USD is trading below 1.1975.

Melbourne Qindex 08:10 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key level of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.1957. Therefore it is reasonable to believe that the market will continue its pullback from the Friday high at 1.2046.

Melbourne Qindex 07:35 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantised level of my 5-day cycle is located at 1.1856. The market is likely to trade in the following ranges initially next week, 1.1951 - 1.1999 - 1.2046. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.1904 - 1.1923 and a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2086 - 1.2094.

... 1.1666* ... 1.1761* ... // 1.1856* - 1.1904 - 1.1951* - 1.1999 - 1.2046* // 1.2094 - 1.2141* ...

Quito Ecuador Valdez 05:46 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
I think we're all forgetting Frankfurt wants a Euroized world...EVERYONE on the band wagon..they'll have all the gold reserves that way...opps..nice "remote control". What else do you think buys all those Euros when a country Euroizes? Good looks? Scrapped currency? Nope. That being the case, if we -all- have Euros, NO FOREX. EUR/EUR doesn't sound very exciting. Not tomorrow but sometime. Make hay while the sun shines, more join up every year, by next year it'll be double. The oldest c'ncy on record (Greek Drachma) was scrapped for Frankfurt's Euro. GBP in 2-3 yrs, USD within 8. Betcha. Rest will follow. Glad I'm also into stocks and construction.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 05:08 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
Amigos, please C my post minutes ago for time/date reference in political forum re: thanking you all 4 comment on my posts today about EUR/USD. Truely, thank you!

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT April 17, 2004//
Not to say anything is impossible in FX especially w/infamous EUR/USD "surprize pair" nor bash your post, but do you really think the EU itself who cries bitter tears at less than 1.30 would allow a 1.56-1.57 EUR/USD? Hey, I'd bet 10,000 traders would grin like a mule eatin' briars with those big numbers and the shorts that would follow afterwards. But it would be like:

1. Putting a brick wall around every exporter and exporting manufacturer and every tourist industry in all of the 12 countries of the EU.

2. At the same time opening the flood gates from hades for the USD, Yuan (pegged to the USD like glue) and the JPY to flood the EZ with their exports almost exclusively. Talk about pizzed off EZ exporters and tour industries and spin offs therefrom!

Do you really think the Frankfurt boys and their duffless Euro clones would stand for that? Even if they would, the EZ would be devistated (it's a hairbredth from that now) with such a high priced Euro and nowhere to sell their exports except other EZ countries and then they would have to compete with a China/Japan import deluge. That alone would lower the EUR and keep it in check. Right?

Since the USA is improving more economically than most of the world, the USD's stability, double deficit or no double deficit, will not let the bottom fall out no matter what the fat cat USD bashers want to do to it. I'd love to see a yet stronger US econ as the whole world would benefit but 1.5+ is way out of kilter.

Your technics do make perfect sence, I checked them, nice job, exempliary work in fact, but in practice, "it can't happen".."Vous ja de". I'd bet Frankfurt would throw a molitov cocktail in their own meeting room to lower the ratio and say "..dem gol danged Islam terrorists done it! Lookie here, we seen it!".

The only way for a 1.56-7 EUR/USD to happen would be to nuke the USA or create severe and almost universal mass pandemonium and it's such a big place that's not likely. Or for some fool Fed God to melt down bonds and stuff. Snicker.


BTW the flim flam fool posted its "I'll manage your FX account for you" ad in the political forum twice with its email address. I'd suggest if he/she/it wants email that we give it alright, copy it and put it on every spam list, viagra peddling, organ enlarging, debt consolidating outfit imaginable. The gift that keeps on giving. And remember to reward me for this idea with that new BMW Z4 Roadster.

hong kong nt 03:56 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
BC -- thanks for your teaching, have a nice weekend...

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT April 17, 2004 Reply   
I suggest a longer point of view for Euro/Usd which I believe many of you have copmputed long ago.
I like to look on the cup and handle formation on the euro weekly formed since 1998 (at that time DM) and this formation has to be respected because it spans over a long time, and cap and handle is known as a relatively reliable formation. If I take 5/26/03 as the reference high (the last peak B4 the break of the high of 10/5/98) for the target computation for that C&H formation I get Euro target at 1.5641. Frightening? Not so; compared to other doomsday prophets. Let us look at (shorter time frame of few weeks) the last downward wave from 1.2926 Top to the last low 1.1866 . Project that 3.618 times and you get a trend which may exhaust at 1.5701 (0.3% away to 1.5641).
Looking at the weekly charts and the Weekly 50-SMA . Last time the down trend at 1.0761 was stopped on WEEKLY 50-SMA at 1.0796.
Last decline was stopped at 1.1866 a touch from the same 50-SMA (1.1862) and just above the line connecting the highs of 10/5/98 & 5/26/03 now at 1.1845 .
An additinal look at the 14-3-3 Weekly Stoch. show similar low reading. So if one believes in a $$$ bull, better take a position upon the break below that line mentioned above . If one is a Euro bull, he must be already in the market with a S/L below that line .


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