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Forex Forum Archive for 04/18/2004

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Dublin CK 23:49 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,

Good post earlier in relation to trading strategies. Good advice my friend, keep them coming.

GL/GT

Dallas GEP 23:45 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Taro Ok now the pound is a little more volatile imo at this time. Potentially 1.8060 is the level to short from but this is a new week so we will have to wait for more action IMO.

On Eur/GBP however I longed EUR/GBP from 1.6668 because 1.6660 is a hard bottom and 1.6720 area is a hard top IMO.

Brisbane L 23:41 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone, just a bit of information in the UK FT today.
US warned to prepare for interest rate rises
LINK
Preview: Eyes fall on Greenspan testimony
LINK

Montréal Taro 23:37 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

For the POUND, what are the strong support and resistance level for the next session ?

Melbourne Qindex 23:33 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 23:31 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 22:55 GMT Im long from 1,1923 average

Dallas GEP 23:30 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
BTW the original shorts I took were from 1.2025 which is also a good shorting level but wider stop of courses is necessary that the 1.2040 entry level/

Dallas GEP 23:25 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Taro, for the Euro, I am short already BUT I will take additional shorts @ 1.2040 if seen with stop above 1.2070 for now. AT this time 1.2047 is a pretty hard top on Euro.

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:55 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
viies, I am curious if you have closed all eur longs and opened shorts, did ya?

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 22:43 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 21:34
euro is touching 20ema /1hr though now
looks like resistance here

Chicago JMI 22:06 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy,
I agree. I think the sheep are looking to buy around 1.1750, which is a very obvious support level. Below that level, they may be looking to short so the 1.16s is a good place to start accumulating longs.

Brisbane L 21:59 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Government U-turn on Europe poll
LINK

Montréal Taro 21:56 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:34

What are the strong support and resistance level for the next session ?

USA Biscuit Boy 21:45 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:37 GMT April 18, 2004

Have to observe the price action Valdez. Let me qualify my statement further. There are obviously sellers at every price traded but I mean sellers in large size I am expecting to emerge either 1.2115 or 1.22 and price will fall from there imo. If either of these resistances holds up it would be a good place to sell there. Good luck all this week.

Tallinn viies 21:34 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:17 - higher. no way we gonna see 1,1950 again today. my view

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:17 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Viies Tallin , whats your take on euro ite now , tnx in advance

Tallinn viies 21:10 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 18:20 - wrong
95% are fooler than you

OK SZ 21:02 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
ok folks, I have r1 on the euro at 12054 and s1 at 11927..have a good trading day all..

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:46 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
as time approaches Tokyo opening, lets you and me post non trading issues on the political forum so the pros can trade here. Being it's a non trading time I went ahead and posted stuff but it's time to quit and concentrate on trading info.

dc fxq 20:43 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
will everyone KINDLY take the political blabber to the POLITICFAL forum please.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:42 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
I am not saying I agree with this Juneau...warming will further melt arctic and antartic ice caps, inundate LOTS of shoreline but that is not shoreline useful by Frankfurt itself. Higher temps mean more inclimate weather, lots of bad stuff..but those who stave off action are those who want no ice age, which is slightly overdue. Correct or not...I think it's a possiblity that the "club" wants no ice age at the expense of risking a global environment and other countries' shorlines. Why else in the face of solid proof of warming would governments ingore the facts?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:38 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Juneau//
To Quito equador: What do you mean global warming is intentional? That is just fanciful thinking? Bush denies it is even happening.

I'm presenting a theory held my many who think warming is an intentional thing, not accidental nor caused by neglect of the environment. Ice age = ice. Ice=2km thick over northern Europe, half the USA, all of Canada skipping down to Andes elevations in South America. Dry climage, low crop yields...we know this happens each ice age every 28k years. No one with a brain could deny warming is happening and sure it's caused by elevated co2 from petrol emissions. I'm just saying it's intentional to NOT do anything about it for the above ice age scenarios I listed above. In plain words, world govm'ts don't want to live in a deep freeze with no food.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:32 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
But how does this forum feel about any perceived usd bears running off with the picnic basket? That's the question...effect on fx usd

Juneau CAR 20:30 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
To Quito equador: What do you mean global warming is intentional? That is just fanciful thinking? Bush denies it is even happening.

But global warming is happening and it is caused by man and it will soon have a huge affect on everyone.

My son in law has a PHD in atmospheric chemistry and a 3 year NOAA grant to study global warming at a major US university where he also teaches chemistry.

He told me: " pretty much all of the top guys in golbal warming believe it is happening and is casued by man".

What is weird is that we are still debating the subject when the scientists who study this event pretty much all agree.

It has become political so the lieing trumps science.

Juneau CAR 20:30 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
To Quito equador: What do you mean global warming is intentional? That is just fanciful thinking? Bush denies it is even happening.

But global warming is happening and it is caused by man and it will soon have a huge affect on everyone.

My son in law has a PHD in atmospheric chemistry and a 3 year NOAA grant to study global warming at a major US university where he also teaches chemistry.

He told me: " pretty much all of the top guys in golbal warming believe it is happening and is casued by man".

What is weird is that we are still debating the subject when the scientists who study this event pretty much all agree.

It has become political so the lieing trumps science.

Minnesota Mark 20:26 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
The worlds security forces have been quite extrordinary in stopping terrorist attacks before they have happened since 9/11. The problem is, there are more of them than there are security people out there. After this last attack on Hamas I think we will see more groups banding together. Initially this was only to be a war on terror and an attempt to make the world a safer place. If care isn't taken this could escalate into a global religious war. Should that happen this world and it's people will forever be changed. I only hope this never comes to pass.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:00 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Realizing that the Iraq thing isn't effecting fx that much these days (fortunately), the anger factor caused by Israel toasting Hamas leader Abdel-Aziz al-Rantissi, 2nd Hamas leader in as many weeks, what if any effect would you feel increased hate towards USA itself as well as coalition nations ACTUALLY would have on fx? Do you think the USA or it's foreign holdings/consulates/embassies/citizens would be under any more danger? Would this perceived increase in actions against the USA not pound the USD even more and be USD neg? Your opinions.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:57 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
I hope I have not confused any one here as my post states many pressure points my first post is for intraday. A bullish mode until the support lines are taken out. My second post is for mid term position and it is still selling on rallies mode. That is why sometimes the picture can look so different when looking at different time charts. The gift is to put it all together and make it work for your advantage IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:44 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 19:26 GMT April 18, 2004
I have on the daily chart a top at around 1.2200-20 the 100ema is also right above and bottom at around 1.1900-10. Resistance is seen at around 1.2130-40 for the time being but these are rough number the idea is to sell on rallies until the top is taken out. Hopefully the bottom because as cruel as the market is it left me hanging for a few pips the other day I am looking for 1.1860 to print and if the top of the daily is taken out I might have to wait longer than I really care for. GL GT

GA TJ that is what I was referring to that is why selling on rallies is still the mode until the market shows us otherwise IMHO. GL GT

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:37 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy//
How/where would I find out where the sellers are on any given pair amigo? We've got 4 or 5 more hours til Tokyo opens...good time for Qs & As.

GA TJ 19:35 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Omil

I looks to me like there is a Sup turned Res line on Euro sitting in the 1.2050 area. I am willing to wait for that to be tested. Trend over the last 40 Days has been down so looking to pick a spot to go with the trend.

Disclaimer: Never excelled at predicting SR and Trend Lines. A mental block I suppose..

UAE oil man 19:29 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:49 GMT April 18, 2004

Alright so 100% out of that 10% wins on rotations of 5% and the rest loose..you can change the %% but the idea is the same.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:26 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:06 GMT April 18, 2004

I am of the same opinion Omil. Time to find out where the sellers are positioned this time around and join them there again. No point shorting euro till then. Could be stationed at 1.2100/15 or even up at 1.22 which would make more sense.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:06 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have in the intraday charts a bullish T/L running now at around 1.1930. This started after we hit the low 1.1870 for eur/usd on 4-14 last week. The 55ma on the 1hr chart will also serve as support for the time being as long as these supports are intact I can only see a bullish move for the eur/usd for the time being to challenge fibo 1.2040-50 and 1.2080-90 area IMHO. GL GT

Edmonton Canada 19:01 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Just saying hello to everyone and hopefully as time goes on be able to share some insights.

Been a long time Stock Market investor, 2 years trading futures and now a few months of Forex. So far so good time will tell.

I like to pick the marco and fundamentals, but must say the forex took me off that game and into trading off the min charts...very exhausting but fun, hopefully I can get back to the big picture trading.

I like the Yen long term and commodities although this US$ strenght could be a little tough on commodities for the short term.

Good trading to everyone

Java7

Stockholm za 18:53 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Re :-
Stockholm za 17:11 GMT April 16, 2004
Yes - "To predict the markets IS impossible, as is predicting any kind of future event. The proof of this is that were it possible, the person(s) with that ability would very rapidly acquire all the money in the world. And as far as I am aware, that hasn't happened yet .
-However everyday, the top 5% (In The Know) traders take some money off the other 95%."
Happy trades - Happy WE - Happy life...........

We all as FX Traders know the original concept and root of the 5% - 95%…

Don’t We??

Now if any one wants to take my post and turn it into an over intellectual University debate topic there is more than welcome…

Then we can start to discuss the what is the ( √-1 )

Happy trades……..

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:51 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP//
I second your motion. I traded mid stream on a gamble and regretted it last week. Before I traded as you suggested..at the extremes of the flow, excercised patience and I won. Simple as that. GEP you could not have produced a better post for us new fellas.

The only exceptions are when the market does a compeletely radical and a totally unpredictable thing as we've seen with "rogue" (EUR/USD). There is no "perfect" in trading, that's why the pros excercise stop losses..that's why GEP'S ADVOCATING them. It ain't a perfect world.

I think us new comers are often more interested in gaining some money fast to make chest puff out out a little, making ourselves feel good, (natural tendency!) giving less importance to learning curve than chest puffing. Uh uh. I tried that a bit...got skunked and I wasn't learning anything either...the latter being the worst part.

Take each trade you see on the forum as I do and mark it down on a piece of paper, see where it goes. Then see if the poster reported the outcome. If so, good, if not..you still learned. If it goes well, ask yourself what that guy knew that made that trade work. If it the trade went sour, again, ask yourself why. Write down the answers, tabulate everything in an orderly notebook or onscreen in a word editor.

That's a full time job in itself and job enough for a beginner. If you pursue anything like this, be it whatever, miticulously and scientifically, you'll stand solid when others are uprooted. Remember to search the archives of this forum to gain whatever it is you may have misssed. Thanks again GEPster.

Dallas GEP 18:34 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. There of of course many trading startegies expressed here one way of the other and there is no doubt times when any one of these will make money. The key of course is to know WHEN to use what strategy and NOT to incurr heavy losses in the meantime on INCORRECTLY timed trading stategies that for whatever reason will not work in present market conditions.

I am firmly convinced that taking positions in the MIDDLE of their expected trading ranges is NOT advisable to making money at this time. Continuations and buying or selling on a break is dangerous as well IMO. One of the BETTER strategies is to buy osr sell at very strong resisatance or support points with fairly tight stops and perhaps with larger than normal lot sizes,

EXAMPLE: You COULD sell euro here at 1.2000 but it would be much better to sell @ 1.2025 with stop around 1.2070. A eur/GBP buy for example would be good @ .6665 and so forth. The reason I say this again is that IF you play in the MIDDLE of these ranges probabilities are BETTER that you could lose.

Be very patient for market to get to your entry, impatience tends to ALWAYS cost you money. Let market come to you and don't chase market.

Good luck and good trades to everyone this week, On a personal note I have Euro shorts and eur/gbp longs. Imagine that!! LOL

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:25 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
BTW, I recommend GVI pro and the rest of GVI's paid servives to increase the learning curve...afterall, your trading business even tho it might be in the fledgling stage (like mine) has to grow on sound information, training and a lot of learning from experts and leaders in this field. GVI paid services provide such. I'd say Jay and John et al have provided us with one dandy suite of recourses. 'Nuff said.

Va Raven 18:20 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank you fellow traders for understanding each other, we share the same pain and happiness everyday here as we are working hard in the same business. No one is smarter than the others and that's why we are here, no?

spring hill lw 18:16 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
I for one appreciate everyone here. I am totally new to this and I am learning so much from everyone.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:12 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Raven// If I knew 1/10 the amount about FOREX trading that you do I'd be happy. That goes for a lot of posters here..you people are some kind of great resource and anyone worth his/her sheckles would appreciate your time, patience and the quality of your posts. I see Raven's posts on GVI pro...love 'em! Keep 'em coming all. To me, this is family. Can we all ever agree 100%? Of course not..that's the big wine choice we have.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:08 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Raven good of you to take your time and explain these facts to the people on the left of your monitor thanks for the valuable info. Hope you have a good week and hope to see more of your comments. GT

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:01 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Raven..your bank figures are 100% correct and your rendition of transaction movements..right on. No prob. I think we got sidetracked a bit tho. I'm not talking about just FX trading, that's small stuff. I'm talking about who controls things world wide...more than big money. We have 4 levels. First, the lowest: the rank and file Joe. That is, individuals, micro cap, small and large cap businesses etc.. Second, the main-main banks who have on deposit Joe's dough. Third, the CBs. Forth and last, the "club" about which we are talking. They don't play FOREX so much (oh I'm sure some of their offices do and stocks too!) , they play world.

I have a certain amount of confidence in this "world game" done by world players, a few groups. World everything is more or less controlled by those groups. It's played by players who don't lose. That's the part of me that says all this doomsday stuff is hype, they don't lose. The other part is quite the opposite and that they will lose because of normal human society cycling..the rise and fall of each great civilization throughout human history. That's real. The next fall is what we're talking about here and the fall of the great groups. What's this have to do with FX and this forum? Not much, we can't control it, we can only put in buy orders and trailing stops.

Right, let's put this subject to bed and get on with something else. It's fixing to rain and I can't go out.

UAE KAY 18:01 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Raven, your post and info are great, it makes alot of sense rather than the crap subjet of 5% and 95% imaginations....

Va Raven 17:49 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
OK, let’s put this issue funny issue to the end; There is no such thing that 5% vs 95%.
There are about 1,200 soundable banks in this world, among them we have so called “top 100” in terms of the size. Ok, we have name list of this top 100. No secret to anyone. Yes, they do play a very important role in this business because of the size they trades everyday and “money talks”.
But do you know what or whose money these top 100 banks are using to trade everyday? Right, other people’s money; Corporations need to do M&As, clients need to transfer money for business or private purposes, banks themselves need to make investments on the deposits they are paying interests…..Is it clear enough now that because of the nature of these money they are trading, they have to buy and sell all directions per the specific request? If so, how come they (so called 5%) can all bid or offer in a same direction just to profit from the unlucky 95%? Don't mention the flows from CBs....
Should I go on?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:47 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex// would that include free optical, dental and coffee coupons-wireless connection privileges at Starbucks? :^> If so I'm applying now for a janitorial position to see if their benefit proggie can include me too. Where do I sign up and where's my free BMW Z4 Roadster for all the loot?

Spotforex NY 17:40 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
I have a membership card for the 5% group....great perks to be in this group!!!!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:30 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
..good post Raven, like you I wanna know what groups are the 5%, not doubting that they exist. We're the 95%..that is, 'the rest', that's an easy one. Any lists of the "five percent fat cats" out there? It's Sunday afternoon mates, let fly! I can name a few actually: the Builderbergs, Rothchilds, Duponts, Morgans...remember who originally funded the Fed in 1911? Any more? Not just ONE fat cat controls anything, it's done in groups, strung together like beads on a string, coordinated, working together. Names above are a few. Gates doesn't make a pimple on the afterburners of those groups above.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:22 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Prague// we should be making lots of $$ in the meantime however, stockpiling liquidatable (as in liquidatable) assets to protect ourselves in case the bubble bursting doomsdayers are right (they may be, they may not be). No matter what happens, some people will have some form of usable currency be it gold, silver, flour, milk powder, chickens...something. So trade hard and well, stockpile your gold, have fun and hope all this doomsday stuff we hear is pure poppycock.


Climate has FX influence..crop production/export/import, fish runs, water supplies. I think global warming is intentional. It didn't start off that way but it is now I think. Why? Ice ages have cycled every 28,000 years. That is, from ice to warmth to ice again, it's 28,000 years. We're overdue..the last ice melted 11,000 years ago. What would northern Europe, Canada, most of Russia and northern China, India and the USA north of Columbus Ohio do if they were under 3 km of ice? Think about it. Glaceris won't form when it's too hot...Antartica and the northern ice cap are melting, physical fact baby..as in net melt. Antartica was without ice only 6,000 yrs ago, it cycles. Normal!

Goodby Aussie and NZ lowlands, Auckland, Sydney, Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, NYC, Vancouver, Washington DC (from a backed up Patomic), borders of South China Sea rice/grain producing areas, and so on. Prevent ice, you have lost lowlands. Don't prevent it and have no northern Europe/northern grain producing USA and Canada. Who's in control here? Frankfurt. Who's high enough to survive the melt? Frankfurt. Who'd be under 2-3 km of ice if we didn't have warming? Frankfurt. + Geneva. oops.

USA uses 25% of all petro fuels worldwide and most city-held assets are concentrated on low coastal areas. That's contributing to ice cap melt. oops. NYC, LA, under the briney deep. Hence high gasoline prices = alternative energy cars, tricycle vehicles, electrics charged by solars on your roof, less global warming. Gasoline/deisel vehicles are the biggest CO2 offenders. Makes sence now the gasoline hike? Encourages electrics. Washington D.C. doesn't want to be a giant aquarium or scuba park. Who'd benefit if it were? By default, Frankfurt.

OK SZ 17:20 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
(Raven) could not have said that any better..good day all..

Va Raven 17:14 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
I am impressed by some creative and imaginative thoughts here; from where did you guys get the exact 5% and 95% ratio?
More demand, price up, more supply, price down. This is economy 101 and works in any time, anywhere, any market and to anyone.
5% of what or who? Citi suffered big losses during 1991-94, had good time during 97-99, down again in 2000, now enjoying 3 straight year profit.... Soros? Well, he made a billion in sterling trade in 91-92, lost 800MM in usd/jpy bet in 95-96.... Are they in 5% or 95%?
I agree this Forex market has its unique feature as opposed to the other financial market - the size of daily turnover. But because of that, this forex market can be hardly controled by anyone. BoJ spent hundreds of billions, we are still unable to see 115 and who can trade like BoJ in this market, the 5%? Who are they anyway?
Just a thought, no intent to offend anyone here. I know we, human being, are easy to believe something big when we find something tough to explain.

prague viktor 16:59 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez :Amigo thx for ur posting,yeah the crash is coming and we must be ready for it all the friends here are giving warning about it..so take care and G/L

Mtl JP 16:58 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
bc 15:54 / there a few ..
I suspect Buffet sits on 35+ bios because he has something else than a fetish for cash mountains, another is Sir Templeton, now largely out of the popular media circus spotlight.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:49 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
amc// another thing on gold. Buy it as I said as a hedge only...you can make a lot more $$ on trading fx and stocks than on gold. What you want is liquidatable something-or-other when things get nasty (as in NASTY). If you buy at $400 and it dips to $300 (which it will someday) don't even think about it. When you will need it is when it automatically E-valuates to OVER what you paid for it. Even if it's an even-steven, that's fine, you have spendable asset to eat and to even reinvest when stocks and realestate is practically a gift. In the stock mkt crash of '29, fat cats sold on the down side fast (probably causing the downside!) then bought it all back at the bottom and then some, made a nice handy Daddy Warbucks WWII entry, evaluated everything and made ba-freeking-jillions.

Gold still is worldwide currency and always will be because of the cost of mining it..some $295/oz these days and going up in keeping with inflation, a good hedge on that too. It can never go below mining costs + meager profit because simply the mines can't sell it for a loss and stay in business. Gold is a technology commodity...bajillions of circuit boards and gizmos are made of it, glass is coated with it to prevent UV entrance etc. and it can't be recouped from broken window glass. Being a tech commodity that means it is used up, not just recycled (as much of it was in the past). Even dental gold and some jewelry is burried with it's bearers.

Geez I love Sundays, we can post and read like crazy and not interrupt trading data!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:33 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
NY amc// Don't sweat all this doom and gloom stuff we write here, just be prepared in case it comes to pass. All societies in human history have to end. Question is from what and when? No government in this world is over 250 years old but man's been on this planet some 400,000 years in the present day cranial displacement volume. What's that tell you?

It's a dynamic world we live in friends...anything can happen..even asteroids, Ebola and HIV! Sheesh, what next? Just play FX with a finger on the "sell" button and the other finger on the "buy gold button". It wouldn't hurt to increase your overall gold portion of your portfolio to at least 15% physical metal (not paper gold futures etc....metal in your bank safe dep. box)..some say as much as 25%...some soothsayers of doom even say more. But get some if U don't already have it as a hedge, not as an investment. Right now gold is medium in price, it fluctuates from high $290s to more, could go up to $1k/oz if things get nasty.

Small Credit S u i s s e bars are best, easily recognizable and therefore liquadatable..from 1 gram (about $14 right now or so) to 1 troy oz and inbetween. I n g l ehard bars are OK too. Coins cost too much premium..wasted money. Stay away from off-brand bars, in a pinch they wouldn't be recognizable currency. Silver...whatever...it's too volitile for me.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:24 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong 07:37 GMT April 18, 2004

As far a I can tell the 95% are still buying on these dips although this mentality is slowly changing. When these 95% finally dump their long euro positions and look to establish short positions then it is time to accumulate euros for the next leg up. One could make an intelligent guess this will occur when the price falls through 1.18 seemingly toward 1.15 where the winning 5% will be buying ahead of this figure. Dr. Qindex's target of 1.16 would fit this picture nicely no?

hong kong nt 16:11 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
BC -- Thanks for your great sharings. Amazing to see a little OBL can pose such a devastating and far reaching impact onto a giant economy like US...

prague viktor 16:08 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc: thank u sir and G/N

Barcelona Tony 16:06 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc .. good you're around ... will we see a break on swiss to 1.3070+?

shanghai bc 16:05 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   

Good night,AB and friends..

ny amc 15:58 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Geez you guys are scaring this young buck................

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:57 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
bc, wish you have a nice dream and we will have more profitable week starting from tomorrow morning! GT and GN.

shanghai bc 15:54 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   

VIKTOR -- 2004 may be a rough year given its tendency to have bad luck in every year with number 4 in US economic cycle, with 10 year cycle floor coming in a year with number 4..Supposing Fed keeps the economy alive with much more injection of printed money in 2004 while building more bubbles,2005 is a year with number 5..USA never had an economic crash in the year with number 5 for the last 140 years..So,2005 may be not that bad again..2006 onward is unknown number although I believe this credit and debt bubble building with astronomical numbers cannot possibly go on that long..Then,not many who expeirenced great economic disasters in the past are still alive today to warn the folks of impending economic disasters..And we humans always repeat the same mistake, economic or otherwise, although the place and time and people involved differ each time..

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:45 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
"The effect on the euro (from hedging) was fairly sharp. But the hedging ratio is close to a peak. There has been marked deterioration in the euro zone economic condition while the U.S. is pretty strong. It is questionable whether another wave of hedging will take place," said Tony Norfield, head of FX research at ABN AMRO.

"Accounts might unwind hedges by buying back dollars. It might be too late, but the next decision will be to lower the hedge ratio. (Reducing hedges gives the dollar support and will also strengthen it.) The hedging bubble in euro/dollar is already deflating and there is more to come." he said.

Full article: HERE

prague viktor 15:14 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc:Good day sir..pleas I would like to ask u about the timing of this crash is it the 2005-2006 or 2006-2007 thank u sir

Ecuador Quito Valdez 14:45 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:42 GMT April 18, 2004//

Super post (as always!) That's exactly what others and I were observing with frustration...no matter what happens in the way of good USD postive news, the USD is kept down in value by BIG BIG money. That's good temporarily for the US econ but as you said, the numbers you cited: $1.6 Tln total or 100 billion+ dollars each month into the market and climbing, for the last 16 months qualifies for "BIG BIG", and to falsely aid the US econ with a low USD in the face of a weak EUR and EZ. When artificial remidies are employed, it catches up eventually and things equalize, often traumatically. What is, is. I thought this EUR/USD mkt was illogical, mysterious and I didn't know who was maniuplating it... it's as you say, the darned Fed and very documented. My suspicions are confirmed. Thanks.

It's a round about crime against the American people IMHO and that's why I won't trade it and thus won't support a maniuplating Fed trying to cover for a weak government and economy falsely propped up with rotten wood pilings. The rest of you can just go ahead and grab that pair's money all you want, support this immorality, whatever..that's your deal. It's dirty money and I won't touch it. I disagree with Nottingham, it's NOT just a board full of numbers.

The Fed's dollars they printed to do this bandaid of a mkt intervention can only spell trouble down the road as the downward momentum turns into an out of control self perpetuating hyberbolic crescendo bubble bursting melt down, right in their freeking laps. Once on it's way, I agree, the USD is doomed to keep falling to the point the USA has eaten too much the forbidden "over printed" fruit, the stock mkt crashes and the great depression is seen again. Prob is the rest of the world will go into the abyss with it since the rest of the world deals in paper security only, not real values.

Long before the concept of a universal currency such as the EUR, gold & silver and even copper were indeed the universal currencies. One had to work for it, it represented a currency which could not be molested, hyped nor "created" out of thin air...you had to mine it, purify it, sell it, trade for it and posess it or simply said, you had no money. Metal currency forced mankind to work or starve and without that evolution we'd be nowhere, like we'll be when the paper crashes around us. That being the case these metal currencies will have to be revived in the face of dumptrucks full of worthless paper to buy a loaf of bread, not unlike Nazi Germany in 1944. The buck stops somewhere. The Arabs are already reminting the gold Dinar in anticipation of a world wide paper collapse.

Your statement about stocks: correct again. Stocks are so heavily extended beyond their actual value it's pathetic. Like currencies, they are almost all hype, little backing. The actual worth of a typical company in terms of sellable assets (as in auction!) are less than 1% of the value of its stock. Likewise the USD (as most currencies) is backed by only a few % in precious metals, (CHF is highest at 32%) and the "rest" is pure hype. We live in an imaginary world amigo where almost overnight our very air as well as water, food, wood and manual machinery & tools just might be the only worthwhile things we have. If you want to see a really large teacup with handle, check out man's last 700 years of history...rest of the downside cup in "mvho" forming NOW. Where ever will the handle will lead us?



Haifa ac 14:11 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 13:54 GMT April 18, 2004
May God give peace to Palestain and Isreal......//

She will. Just saw her calendar. Trouble is, it is scheduled in May 2143.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:54 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
May God give peace to Palestain and Isreal......

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:49 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
HK RF// thanks for your views and your time amigo, they are provocative and stimulate thought...afterall, that's what we want. Personally I have a good hunch (certainly not by TA) that we'll have an enormous economic melt down mess on our hands worldwide if things don't change on all fronts...frankly I've bought a farm and am turning it into a totally self sufficient farm for 2 reasons:
1. I just plain like country living, orgainic food, farm fresh eggs and my own cured hams.
2. In case some top economists are correct about a world wide crunch year 2008-9 (agreeing with your words here), maybe my family will be ready..if one can be "ready" for such things. At least regarding food, water and medicinal plants. Am educating an entire indigenous pueblo where the farm is in new agriculture & alternative energy and they're eating it up. Literally!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:30 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
'Mornin! Tkx for all the super posts! Good forum. Best of luck all!! Please, when I post, I want to see those logical disagreements to MAKE ME THINK (albeit us all). Tkx 4 ur time & responces to my posts.

BTW, the 'FX Charts' link on right side panel 4 me doesn't work...

...and I can't find any graph chart today (?) with today's data including f x t r e k.

re: Weird volitility in EUR/USD: If USD/GBP is called "cable", lets call EUR/USD "rogue". :^)

UAE oil man 11:44 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Nor do i see any reasons to close euro$ shorts or try to bottom pick..Not at this stage..In anycase good luck.

UAE oil man 11:18 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong 07:37 GMT April 18, 2004

Whatever ,I m not here to argue with you..Time will tell and in this case I will be on the short side till 1.25 breaks ..where I'll go into long for 1.50..Waiting for another downside while catching an upmove..In the meantime It has been going down nicely since january and I don't see any reasons to buy it(it s going down not up..wether it was going up before is a different scenario..if it goes up again ok buy it)..And you got it backwards as the 95% always have the mentality of getting a bargain..After it has made the move..A simple exemple is in let's say Stock A..Stock A is at 100..in a time span of 3 month it moves to 200..then the papers talk how it s great value, it's divendends and all are but next to pure gold..Offcourse the public will then buy the stocks while the 5% unload on them..those who buy the top will hold..the ones who see it lower will see the bargain ..then the stock A finishes at 60..where it goes into a quiet phase..before a new silent accumulation of the 5%..when it s at 150 again the public goes into a frenzy..That's the why the 95% are said to have a short term memory.

Haifa ac 10:41 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 08:55 // Look up what the market did on 3.22 when Dear Yassin was called for heavenly sex. Rantisi was less significant than Yassin.

Gold Coast martin 09:14 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
HSG....yES the market will open with a bottle of moet....lol..seriously it will have no impact on the market.....killing terrorists in palestine is as old as jesus in palestine...g/l/ g/t

HKG SK 08:55 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Is the death of Hamas leader Rantisi have any impact on the market when it opens on Manday???

shanghai bc 07:42 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Fed has been injecting some 100 billion+ dollars each month into the market for the last 16 months..In other words,dollar never had a chance to get lifted in the first place thanks to them printing dollars like there is no tommorrow..Some 1.6 trillion dollars of injection into the market in that period..With that kind of money being injected,even a pig can fly let alone Dow..Then,those trillions are just the money printed by the Fed at their pleasure not the money earned by the nation..No wonder Dollar is having a hard time to get lifted even with very poor EZ economy..The next financial crisis of the world is surely coming in the form of once in a century-credit and debt bubble to be burst starting from USA..Any kind of paper asset especially stox will lose value beyond recognition while gold will rise beyond recognition too..Dollar in general does poorly when the world goes into economic trouble..It used to do rather well when there was a political trouble in the world but 911 removed all that premium off the Dollar as well..Dollar is on fundamentally weak ground despite its sporadic bounces of some months from time to time..Fwiw..

hong kong 07:37 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
UAE oil man 16:47 GMT April 17, 2004
get real oilman, markets rarely reverse long/mid term trends in a "V" fashion. The 5% real money playing winners in FX don't acquire a winning habit by buying the Euro at the top & sell it when it is down 10 figures from the recent 1.29 high. They do exactly the opposite as you had posted, they sold when the 95% crowd was buying up at 1.29 for 1.35, & now they are buying 1.1866 from the 95% who are all caught up with selling Euro down to 1.15 manias. Consistent losers in FX never learn, they have a very short memory span & repeat the same mistakes over & over.

Melb mpfx 05:56 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw some Eur/Usd #…. gt

Eur/Usd
Previous weekly Close ~ 1.1987
Range in Pips ~ 233

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2099

Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2041
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2021
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2010

Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.1983

Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.1955
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.1944
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.1924

Previous weekly Low ~ 1.1866

5 Day Max Price ~ 1.2099
20 Day Max Price ~ 1.2399
60 Day Max Price ~ 1.2926

5 Day Min Price ~ 1.1866
20 Day Min Price ~ 1.1866
60 Day Min Price ~ 1.1866

Melbourne Qindex 05:02 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 04:05 GMT - I do not have any updated analyses on DJIA. I will run the projection when the market is ready to make a good move.

hong kong nt 04:05 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
DR QINDEX -- can you share your view on DJIA? the bulls seem unmoved by the rate hike issue, do you think we may see 10800-10850 in coming weeks? good forecast and good trades to you...

Melbourne Qindex 03:53 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 00:27 GMT - In other words the sequence of movement between the ranges can't be defined from this 44-day cycle analysis. e.g

1) It can consolidate between 1.1968 - 1.2059 and tackle 1.1876. Vibrating around 1.1876 with an expected magnitude of +/- 91 pips, then test the support of 1.1694 or the resistance at 1.2059.

2) It can also go all the way to 1.1694 and then consolidate between 1.1695 - 1.1785 - 1.1876.

etc

It is better to put down Qindex instead of Quindex, otherwise I can't search it from the Archive. Basically it is standing for Quantum Index (QIndex).

Brisbane 02:52 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
AMMAN (AP)--Al-Qaida-linked terrorists were plotting to detonate a large-scale chemical bomb in this Arab country that could have killed up to 20,000 people, plus also attack the U.S. Embassy and prime minister's office with poison gas, officials said Saturday.

Officials close to the investigation told The Associated Press that several terror suspects arrested in Jordan last month have confessed that the plots were hatched by Jordanian militant Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, thought to be a close associate of al-Qaida boss Osama bin Laden.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the terrorist cell was planning to attack Jordan's secret service -the General Intelligence Department -with a chemical bomb that would have killed up to 20,000 people and caused large-scale destruction within a radius of one kilometer.

Jordan's King Abdullah II said in a letter of thanks published this week to his intelligence chief, Gen. Saad Kheir, that the arrests of the terror cell members have "saved thousands of lives."

In his letter, Abdullah said had the chemical bomb plot not been uncovered, Jordan would have seen "a crime that would have been unprecedented in the country in terms of the size of explosives mounted on the vehicles and the methods of carrying out the attacks or the civilian locations chosen."

On Saturday, the officials told the AP that the terror cell was also apparently planning to carry out simultaneous poison gas attacks against foreign diplomatic missions, including the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Amman, vital Jordanian public establishments like the prime minister's office and unspecified civilian targets.





nyc sa 00:27 GMT April 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Quindex , thnx for the euro info , what do u mean by random walk in plain words ?

 




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