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Forex Forum Archive for 04/19/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:58 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AMC. We are constantly tweking that but 7-10PM EST, 1AM-4AM EST, 8AM-11AM EST, 2-5PM EST

Singapore Pilot 23:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
US Investment house buying truck loads of usd yen... they have more to buy...looks like we see 110.00 ...

Miami 23:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Is there is website with high activity in the chat area?

Dallas GEP 23:46 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD I see hit my target of 1.3442 (ASK). I already tho had taken profit @ 1.3451 for +21 earlier.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:41 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Intraday indicators are well out of the O/B territory and into O/S area for the eur/usd pair. The support is being tested right now and price T/L now sits around 1.1970-60 area as support. As long as intraday range confines to this movement we have a bullish run. Mid-term outlook still looks bearish and everything can change in a heartbeat when Greenspan opens his mouth later this week IMHO. GL GT

Ldn 23:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
FX OPTIONS - Prices suggest euro has room to fall
A lot of options guys are incorporating a low into their newly formed strategies," he said, adding that he believed the euro was likely to dip below $1.15.

"It's pretty much a given that we're going to get below $1.15," Caruso said.

Brisbane L 23:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Legally, Australian PM Howard can wait to call an election as late as April 2005 so he may hold off till after the new year with circumstances slightly altered due to the talk from the opposition of withdrawing troups

Melbourne Qindex 23:20 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:19 GMT April 19, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is pulling back from the projected resistant barrier of 1.2058 - 1.2079. The short term target is 1.1895 - 1.1902 and the mid-point referenceis 1.1980 - 1.1987.

Melbourne Qindex 09:33 GMT April 19, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantised Levels of 3-Month Projection Profiles


Set A : ... 1.1529* // 1.1712 - 1.1895* - 1.2079 // 1.2262* ...


Set B : ... 1.1590 // 1.1746* - 1.1902 - 1.2058* // 1.2215

Brisbane L 23:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP)--As worries about the Iraq war and terrorism have pushed ahead of the economy among the public's priorities, President George W. Bush has edged ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry, national polls suggest.
The ABC-Washington Post and CNN-USA Today-Gallup polls, both released Monday, showed Bush with a slight lead over Kerry in a three-way matchup with independent Ralph Nader.
Bush was up 48%-43% over Kerry among registered voters, with Nader at 6% in the ABC-Post poll. In the CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Bush was ahead 50%-44% among likely voters, with Nader at 4%.

CAIRO AG 22:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ML// Hi hope all is well with you....

When u have time, pls look into GBPCHF... looks interesting..lol?

Good Luck & Good Trade

spring hill lw 22:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
whats the thinking on a eur/usd long ?

ICT ML 22:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
London Cam...if you care, the eur-usd 4 hr will have broken its RSI trend if this candle closes red.

ny amc 22:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep................what times do you find yourself trading during the day. est time if you could. just curious

Houston ST 21:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
welcome to ambush hour. gl/gt.

GVI john 21:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2020…$/yen 108.40
DJIA 10,438, -14 pts…NASDAQ 2,020, +25 pts
10-yr 4.37%, +2 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
SEE TEXT ON GVI....

Va Raven 21:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Air, fresh air, HN.

Livingston nh 21:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Raven - do you want a shovel or a rope??

Va Raven 20:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
"The most frequent and most significant of all perversions".
Help me out here, NH.

Va Raven 20:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
NH, Sigmund Freud?

Livingston nh 20:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Raven - maybe it could be SM - who could possibly more sado masochistic than FOREX folks

Va Raven 20:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I have already suggested GVI to open another forum side by side with FF, it's called SF. When we get bored, we go to SF for relax. But GVI doesn't have the gut to try......

ADK and GEP are just two different type of traders; one is more experienced and the other is more active.
Yes, P&L is the only thing counts in the end, but we are talking about P&Ls in long run, not in a trade or days. Wrongly managed trade sometimes could also be ended up with profit, but it's sometimes and we (assume) are doing this for a long time if not life time.

Houston ST 20:36 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
oops, make that "Housing", not Houston. gl/gt.

Houston ST 20:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I believe Greenspan speaks at 2:30 p.m. tomorrow in front of the Committee on Banking, Houston
and Urban Affairs/US Senate.

Livingston nh 20:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Chief1Oar - used them in the past - highly recommended

london cam 20:30 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Jubail S 20:01
I'm not sure when Greenspan will speak tomorrow but likely to be after 12:00GMT
On Wednesday he'll be speaking @ 14:00 GMT (Fed's Beige Book)
GL GT

houston ken 20:29 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
JUST BOUGHT AUD STOP AT .50

Colorado Chief1Oar 20:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dial 1-800-SacrificialMaidens

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I would volunteer for the sacrificial burning but I have been burned to a crisp lately by the market so I would not be a good specimen.

Helsinki iw 20:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Irish 18:23 ; The thought had occured to me as well. Good
point to bring up, I believe.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:17 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
NH might be a good solution but who will volunteer LOL.

Livingston nh 20:13 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Omil - maybe a sacrificial burning at the stake to clear the air ??

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I have noticed over the years here that when the market is in a tight range as we are lately the natives seemed to get restless and lash out at one on another. To each his own and remember that we should help not criticize each other IMHO. GL GT

ICT ML 20:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP....I responded to your email this weekend.....check it and get back to me :-)

Dallas GEP 20:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BTW SID, results are what counts. Everything else is BS!!!!

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/cad shorts for +21 PIPS, which I am sure displeases some, LOL. I will be back in Asia. I NEVER btw take any of this personally. I am unorthodox, I realize that. What works for me may not work for ANYBODY else, I dunno. My last euro shorts now have a SL at breakeven. The best to you guys. In for Asia later.

Jubail S 20:01 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello London cam

ThankWould you tell when will be the Greenspan's speech?
Thank you.

london cam 19:54 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 19:44 GMT April 19, 2004

Thanks viies and GL. I'm still on the sidelines awaiting the outcome from Greenspan's speech.

London ADK 19:52 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:40 GMT April 19, 2004 - I am sorry you feel I am attacking you and also to hear you think r/r is bs. The reason for not suggesting any trades is that r/r depends on your targets, stops, time horizon risk profile etc etc. You are asking me to give you a target an stop.

I have noticed a huge degree of megalomania around here and I sometimes I do wonder about the consequences for some. I hope this forum continue to be a place for thought provoking ideas and most of all respect for others.

Like they say,...whatever blows your hair back. Good luck with your ventures.

Spot - Thank you for your kind words

Tallinn viies 19:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
london cam 19:19 - becasue my charts said so, dont think we will be able to move there within next 48 hours. imo

Livingston nh 19:30 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The Fed is really not relevant - watch the BOND market - if these guys sniff inflation (and it takes them awhile to catch on) the 10 year note is going to 5% by June

Houston ST 19:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies, good luck to you. I've been tempted several times to jump on the eur/usd. $Bulls seem to have control at the moment but eur seems to have found at least a temporary home at these levels. w/o significant econ data for the most part it's just Fed watch central, which is probably going to be a non event. having said that, a rate increase appears to be in the cards but how soon and how much is the million yen question. my charts aren't showing me any money laying over in the corner at the moment, but when it does I will post early and often. gl/gt.

Tallinn viies 19:21 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
london cam 19:19 GMT - Im humble. dont want too much money. I leave some to others

london cam 19:19 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Viies - Any reason why you did not wait to buy @ 1.1960/70?
GL GT

Gen dk 19:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA SID 19:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
So Dallas, you are risking 40 pips to make 5 pips? What do you place the odds on that one? Odds are....something is amiss!

Tallinn viies 18:59 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
good evning
bougth more euros at 1,2018. target 1,2125. stop at 1,1954

london cam 18:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ML - thanks. I get the picture. GL GT

ICT ML 18:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Cam...the price TL is at 1.1965 area. The corresponding Trend I watch is an RSI trend line, which will break long before the price TL will and give me an early entry if it does break......GL

london cam 18:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ML - re my last post, I meant EURUSD

london cam 18:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 18:14 GMT April 19, 2004
Hi ML. Out of interest, is your EURGBP T/L support on the 4hrly around the 1.1960-70 region
TIA
GL GT

Chicago Irish 18:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
To me it seems clear that Fed funds have priced in a US rate hike and Euro politicians are calling for a rate cut,said calls are getting much louder lately,brave Euro CB'ers who think differently get their expense accounts examined.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:17 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Well the setup to Greenspan is going to be very interesting. If the dollar strengthens between now and then and the market prices in some tightening hints by Greenspan further gains by the dollar are going to be very hard going. If we continue to float about at these levels tho then dollar buying can really pick up momentum again after Greenspan talks, especially against cable and aussie IMO.

Dallas GEP 18:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
This looks to be coming true. I apologize for the one pip miscalculation on the top side!!! LOL
]
Dallas GEP 01:07 GMT April 19, 2004
WARNING I think Euro/GBP trading range will be LOWER this week perhaps .6620 to .6680

ICT ML 18:14 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
this is getting scary now...as I too still have the most bullish chart I've seen in a LONG TIME, and of all things it is $CAD weekly target around 1.4000 over time......too many of us agree on this for it to be a good trade IMHO...we'll see I guess :-)

other things I see...possible to see 198 on gbp-jpy very soon
also eur-usd and cable have broken my trends for this last move up on the hourly, but not the 4 hr yet...so sell with caution if shorting it. problem is that $swiss cannot overcome its down move trends right now.

the eru-gbp and Aud-usd trades I mentioned in Asia worked out, but eur-gbp is on a good support ema right now, might get a bounce here...might not. Aussie though looks to be good for a bit more yet.

trade safe...be nice....etc...

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The stop on my usd/cad short is now @ 1.3492. The TP is now @ 1.3442. This is based on 30 minute chart. IF 1.3492 prints then in all probability 1.3550 will be seen.

Spotforex NY 18:03 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
my system is brewing for a nice increase in volatility in USD vs CAD.....My pivot points of a new acelleration zones at 1.3390 and 1.3510..

happy hunting all!!!

Rivonia PipPirate 18:02 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
$/cad has been yo-yoing between 13490 - 13400, about 5 times in the last 70hrs, plus 1.3500 "remains the subject of Asian option defence", so has been an excellent punt from both sides imo.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The idea here is to make money if you are comfortable with your style and you make money then that is great. I don’t like to preach to anybody and when I am telling somebody how I trade I always use R/R as an example with the rest of the arsenal used for the marathon. I believe that survival here is just as important as making the right call and that is what the R/R issue is all about. With that said I turned to eur/usd as I posted before the prices have been riding the 55ma on the 1hr chart and the bullish T/L since the bottom was formed on 4/14 of last week. On thing I did not mention was the market is very thin and people are waiting to hear from Greenspan about this interest rate hike issue. It would definitely be a good idea till then unless you have a longer position already set to wait for the market to let us now where it is really heading next IMHO. GL GT

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD above 200 da mva for the fourth day and MACD rising -- BUY

Stockholm za 17:52 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   


Bashment time again ?????

Who let the dogs out ??




newc as 17:47 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
tim,i assume you mean 130.00, not a good idea, as overbought levels are around here up to 131.00, rather look for a short a bit higher

LA SID 17:46 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, is the 75-80% chance put out by the bookies? Seems to me most trades entered into naturally have a 100 % can for success or why in the heck do them in the first place? Your 75% chance seems as arbitrary as your intial idea!!!!!

Dallas GEP 17:40 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
OK this is my last post on this matter. If I believe there is a 75-80% chance that USD/CAD will hit my TP before the stop loss then why is that a SENSELESS trade??? I still see no other trade suggestions from you ADK so I assume as usual that those than CAN "DO" and those that CAN'T criticize.

This is FAR from betting on a 50/50 chance IMO and sense I am the one who is putting money on this, ultimately, my opinion is the one that counts anyway in regards to this trade. COULD this usd/cad stop out??? Well YES. Could it make money???, YES, more probable in my view and the pricing action is more stable than the majors in my view.

We spend too much time on useless BS like this. If you don't like the suggestion GREAT, offer another. None of us are paid to post here on GV and quite frankly if I am wrong then I will simply move on to another possie. I have posted time and time again that is someone else makes money because of something I suggested I am very HAPPY for them even more so than for myself. I don't do this for my benefit (post). I truly beleive this forum makes everyone better, But I am an idealist so there are people that don't like that either. To each his own. Good luck and Good Trades to EVERYONE>


Wisconsin tim 17:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any thoughts on a eur/jpy long in the 103.00 region.

tia,
tim

vancouver jpb 17:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
OK... enough with all the drama. This isn't a bloody soap opera.

We are traders, we play by big boys rules. You lose money sometimes.

AND YOU KNOW WHAT:

ITS YOUR FAULT! You can't blame anyone for your actions. You enter and exited a position.

There's a maxim I live by: DON'T TRADE TO TRADE. If you are unsure about a trade, don't do it. Just beacause the platform is running does not mean you have to be in the market.

If it takes 8 hours to get your entry point, wait it out.

Be safe and protect your profits.

Remember one thing, NO ONE WINS 100% of the time. NO ONE.

GL GT

NYC Jerry 17:11 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I am not trying to make ANYONE look bad. Its is just that there are quite a few very seasoned people here that can distinguish BS from real trading.

NYC Jerry 17:09 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
What amazes me is how all the bad trades are forgotten, and all the good ones APPEAR.

Spotforex NY 17:05 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
just for the record - ADK is a very reputable name on this forum.....

He is just throwing caution in the wind for those who 'blindly' follow the posts of members.....

What makes sense for one type of style and trading parameters...will be gabblygook to others....

The moral here that ADK is rightly pointing out is that risk/reward discipline is the key to probitability and survival......

Livingston nh 17:02 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Personal bias talking - folks are concerned about G'span talking in next few days -- What's worse - Inflation at 4% with a patient Fed at 1% or inflation at 5% and a Fed at 3%? Don't forget this is the same group of folks who in the face of DECLINING inflation hiked rates from 3% to 6% in a year -- mortals make the same mistakes as other mortals// Any country that doesn't match US inflation is going to be a contracting economy

GA TJ 16:59 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP, don't stop doing what you are doing because of the likes of ADK and that knucklehead a few weeks ago from NY (Jerry , I think). It has always amazed me that people think that something can not be successful because they have not been successful. The ego can be very dangerous to success or at least limiting.

Nottingham 16:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
r/r comes a poor second to quality of analysis...you can have 4:1 r/r but if your win/loss ratio is worse than the inverse of that you'll get nowhere fast

btw GEP...a slight digression...as far as I know that has only been one risk free bet (arb side) and that was in the last World Cup when Brazil played China...most had Brazil down to win by 4 or 5 clear goals which was fair enough and certainly not worth going "long" for, but the electronic bookies that were offering binaries on the game were offering 80 odd and it was simply a question of how much they'd let you stake

vancouver jpb 16:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
RE: the euro, what do ya'll think?

Is this the bottom for today?

London ADK 16:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Augustus -huh?

nyc sa 16:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Thnx Dallas , there is an interesting post on the Dailyfx forum about cable by someone named cable as toi the levels of sterling /$ ,was 1.0582 in 1985 , around 2.01 in 1992-93 , go figure in which direction will be the next move !

LONDON AVERA 16:46 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
TKS DALLAS

London ADK 16:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Problem is GEP, you don't seem to understand fully. r/r is something you calculate yourself, based on your own priciples/tiem frame, in an unsure environment. Teh fact that you are willing to dump money on any thing I point out, scares me.

SF Augustus 16:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ADK: Not necessarily. One most multiple the probability times the exp outcome. So if GEP attributes a 75% prob. towards a winning trade aiming for 30 pips and a 25% chance of losing 30 pips then.... (Win) .75 x 30 = 22.5 (Loss) .25 x 30 = (7.5)thus total net (gain)= 22.5 - 7.5 = +15 pips thus the r/r is justified.

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
OK ADK, tell me ONE postion with even a 1:2 risk reward and I will dump a LOAD of money in it. JUST ONE.

London ADK 16:36 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
And also takes no more skill than putting some money or red or black.

LONDON AVERA 16:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BUT,IS BETTER CLOSE SHORT

London ADK 16:34 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Exactly, thats why risking the same amount as your potential winnings is just senseless

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
SA, I think cable will test 1.8120 again.

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BTW there is NO such thing as a sure winner, ANYWHERE!!!

LONDON AVERA 16:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
time for buy eur , what do you tihinK???

nyc sa 16:31 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone following cable ? it seems to be moving in a very tight range ,ready to break down or up ? Dallas ,would like ur view , thnx .

Dallas GEP 16:30 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ADK, I don't get it I guess. The days of Risk Reward ratios of 1:3 are OVER and have been for some time. What is pretty clear howver to me is that when you get greedy on the TP side you almost always get burned, A good entry of a possie should earn you at least 20-30 pips and IF you try to hold for the home run play of say 80-100 pips you almost ALWAYS wind up at BEST with BE and often with a LOSS. I have seen it happen time and time again. So specifically do I think USD/CAD will short MORE than 30 pips absolutely. BUT I want to bank those pips if given before they have a chance at backing up on me.

If you have a better method, I am all ears. ESPECIALLY in this market where ranges are being broken fairly consistently.

London ADK 16:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT April 19, 2004 - The probability is closer to 100% that we will see at least 30 pips movement. Problem is which way and when. How much potential pain are you willing to take for how much potential gain? You say 1:1
You might as well bet on a horse with odds 1:1 A sure winner.

SURABAYA GINTA 16:10 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BDG bee, welcome 2 the jungle ha.., good trades, more learn lah!

SF Augustus 16:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone shorting Dollar/Yen at these levels?

Stockholm za 15:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
LONDON AVERA >>>>........
Can you PLEASE take-away ( take off ) the cap-lock ????
Thank you ....

PAR 15:29 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
US banks keep buying GBP on all the crosses.

london GG 15:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The Euro "it's a dog, a dog with fleas" GG

USA Biscuit Boy 15:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Yes the markets have been very thin and due to stay that way till the man talks on Tue/Wed. Hopefully we see fireworks after then.

ln 15:05 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
there has been much talk on the forum but the market has not done much today and you would have been lucky to get a few pips from the market today. think its best to stay out unless you have info that we all dont. Want to short cable or euro but not attractive enough...gl gt

PAR 15:02 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Looks like GBP could go to 1.8200 due to expectation of higher UK interest rates. Carry trades are being put back on.

Gold Coast martin 15:01 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
large swiss bank selling chf and buying yen in a big way....thought it may be of interest to traders that trade CHF/JPY..i dont trade this pair ...the info will definitely impact this pair in the next 34 hours....g/l g/t

Gen dk 14:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LONDON AVERA 14:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I KNOW , LETME SEE YOUR MSN AND MORE LATTER WE CAN SPEAK, I HAVE TO CLOSE MY SHORT KNOW

PAR 14:52 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Selling of EURGBP by UK banks, aiming for stops below 6630 and below 6600.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:49 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
London Avera//can't talk here..vamos al political forum tu y yo.

Byron Bay jeb 14:46 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Roger that Houston!

LONDON AVERA 14:43 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
QUE PASA VALDES COMO VA MI LATINOAMERICA!!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:41 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
darnit..I can't type today..should be support of 1.1950!

nyc 14:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Berlin SP 14:36/// Thanks.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
sorry typo: 1.2150 should read 1.2050

Houston ST 14:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Byron Bay jeb , he must have been sampling too many fries!

Berlin SP 14:36 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc 14:25 GMT//GBPCHF doesn't have live execution at the moment but usually it does, spread 8 pips.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP// sounds like you need an "assistant' amigo to do the menial stuff...how bout Valdez for a month for free and I buy the beer? I'm serious.

Byron Bay jeb 14:34 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Mc Donalds CEO dead from heart attack.
you know what they say too much of a good thing!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:33 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm not telling anyone anything new here but on the big picture (1 hr 20day chart) "rogue" (EUR/USD) has a general downtrend (shorting). There is a hackey updown history pattern, just a downtrend. It seems to be peaking right now on that 20 day chart ready to go down further maybe to below 4/14's low.

On the 1min 6hr chart it's a definite downtrend for shorting.

On the 1 min 2 hr chart, ditto...shorting itself nicely.

"rogue" as I've begun to call it looks by my study a general 3 hour or longer short with to me a support of 1.2150??

Dallas GEP 14:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
PTJ, I have NOT been posting all my trades for the last several weeks because I have been devoting more time to growing some new accounts. That HAS to take priority as I hope you understand. I can't really even keep up with all the yahoo messenger conversations that are comimg my way so I try to just do the best I can with my time but there is not enough of it quite frankly.

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Yeah in looking more at GBP/JPY, that is VERY bullish. Shorts may have to wait !!!

WARNING: for the last few weeks this market for a technical standpoint has been VERY challenging. I have received what are normally very strong sell and buy signals and the market reacted the other way. We have been breaking outside ranges and so forth.

London ADK 14:25 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Just dashing oput GEP, but will talk later.

nyc 14:25 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
To anyone who trade with s*a*x*o ... Could you check GBP/CHF pair on your s.x.o trading platform please? Does this pair have auto execution or not? Thanks in advance.

NYC PTJ 14:24 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, does that include rasing your 1.1985 SHORTING stop from last week?

hong kong nt 14:20 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- GBP/JPY 196 may mark the weekly top...

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
ADK, not hardly in my view. probability is closer to 75% in my view that I will see at least 30 pips. I would PREFER to have taken it at a higher level but it was making lower highs. If something else looks better to you please offer up, I don't care who makes the call on it I just want it to make money. LOL

GA TJ 14:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
NYC PTJ
The last three trading days have not seemed quite right to me. Gut says that Euro will go down but my Tech setups are telling me to enter a long posi. Which one gets trashed, gut or tech or both and go play a round of golf. I am leaning to place a buy order at 1.2060. (you can read that as complete indecision)

Dallas GEP 14:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I have been in and out of euro 5 or 6 times since then. I am currently still short from 1.2070 level and from 1.2000 levels. I originally had stops at 1,2070 but I thought it might turn so I added some at 1.2070 instead. Average traded is now 1.2035.

London ADK 14:13 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
What is the risk/reward on that. seems to me black or red in the casino might be the same bet.

Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
shorted usd/cad @ 1.3472, stop @ 1.3510, target 1.3432

NYC PTJ 14:10 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT April 15, 2004
Friends this Euro action doesn't seem quite RIGHT to me. A NEW set of shorts from here with stop @ 1.1965 should be profitable. I have a large number of shorts already.

Dallas GEP are your ORIGINAL shorts from this level? Thank you. Would you view this as a LONGING level? Thanks.

nyc fxdh 14:01 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
leading indc up .3 as expexted

Dallas GEP 14:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I have got some signaling to long euro from 1.2030 BUT I don't trust it really since I still have some shorts working LOL Actually tho tho it looks heavy. USD/CAD short looks like one of better plays from 1.3470/80 area and GBP/JPY could be a REAL mover short from 196.00 area with a TIGHT stop.

Dublin Flip 13:56 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
SG don't you think you've sold enough at the lows???-LOL

Melbourne Qindex 13:54 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 13:54 GMT April 19, 2004
AUD/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 0.7395 - 0.7489.

... 0.7182 ... // 0.7276 - 0.7324 - 0.7371 - 0.7418 - 0.7466 - 0.7514 // ...

8887 SG 13:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
CAN I SELL SOME MORE EURO????

Dublin Flip 13:51 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
bee Did you spill some coffee on your keyboard????

Gen dk 13:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bdg bee 13:39 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
>surabaya-GINTA
fin ga forum laen yg bhs nya ga musingin?

bdg bee 13:36 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hi trades!...

Melbourne Qindex 13:28 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : 402.8 / 403.5

Melbourne Qindex 13:27 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:02 GMT April 19, 2004
Spot Gold : The key quantised level of my weekly cycle is located at 406.6. The market is likely to to trade between 396.6 - 406.6 for the time being. A projected resistant level is expected at 409.9 - 411.5.


... // 396.9 - 400.2 - 403.4 - 406.6 // 409.9 ...

nyc fxdh 13:24 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
stops at 108.25

nyc fxdh 13:22 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Hearing large order from German bank pushing up $/yen

LONDON AVERA 13:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
OK

GER ad 13:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
George SA 12:57,
Better sell it near 1.2930 and 1.2960 with a S/L over 1.2990 for < 1.28
IMHO.

George SA 13:01 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Thank You For U'r Input LONDON AVERA!

LONDON AVERA 12:58 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
WAIT FOR US DATA

George SA 12:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Any comments on buying [email protected]

LONDON AVERA 12:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GOOD LEVEL FOR US...I HOPE

SURABAYA GINTA 12:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
>8887, u think US will stronger after leading indic data?

8887 SG 12:47 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
HOPE SO SURABAYA

LONDON AVERA 12:47 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
50´S

LONDON AVERA 12:47 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
WAIT FOR SELL

SURABAYA GINTA 12:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
how about US leading indic ?

SURABAYA GINTA 12:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP will test low now? any comment?

8887 sg 12:21 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
u selling euro @ 12050 , vera?

LONDON savage 12:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
thx nottingham

LONDON AVERA 12:14 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
1.2050 sell

8887 sg 12:13 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
any real comment on euro???
pls advise?

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:33 GMT April 19, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantised Levels of 3-Month Projection Profiles


Set A : ... 1.1529* // 1.1712 - 1.1895* - 1.2079 // 1.2262* ...


Set B : ... 1.1590 // 1.1746* - 1.1902 - 1.2058* // 1.2215

Nottingham 12:08 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
LONDON savage 11:57 GMT

Option related selling is taking place on every approach to 1.35...if it can finally be cleared then stops will kick in above the figure and that, combined with some expected liquidations, may provide enough force to test 1.3550...downside should be limited to 200 day sma...with the market looking ahead to Greenspan's second testimony of the week on Wednesday, it would be no surprise to see this pair stuck between those two "barriers"...the consensus would be so, therefore any break that does occur should give good ground in either direction...gl gt

GA TJ 12:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The 1st part of my setup has flipped to Short on AUDUSD. Not confirmed yet though. EURO, Cable and Swissy are flirting with flipping. Is it possible that the correction from from last weeks move is about over? Wildcard is the prognostication of Uncle Al's words tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Melbourne Qindex 12:02 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.8088.

Melbourne Qindex 11:14 GMT April 19, 2004
GBP/USD : The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.7772 - 1.8088. The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.8140 // 1.8193.


... 1.7666* ... // 1.7772* - 1.7825 - 1.7877 - 1.7930 - 1.7983* - 1.8035 - 1.8088* - 1.8140 // 1.8193* ...

LONDON savage 11:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham any ideas on cad been stuck in this range any chance of a breakout to the upside or downside thx

LONDON AVERA 11:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hi good morning..sell level in eur

SURABAYA GINTA 11:33 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
HI TRADERS...

GVI john 11:31 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2050…$/yen 107.85
DJIA -16 pts… 10-yr 4.32%, -3 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
Forex trade on Mondays is often difficult because of the lack of continuity from a previous continuous session. This week has a mixed outlook with little major data due in the way of macro economic figures, but FRS Chairman Greenspan will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday. His appearance on Wednesday is the major focus for those following the outlook for monetary policy. He is in a position where he now will be forced to provide some sort of guidance about what the Fed is thinking. Two FOMC board members last week sent signals that policy is likely remain on hold for a while longer. Financial markets have a tendency to move much faster that the real economy and odds are that the Fed is still waiting for more solid confirmation that the employment picture is improving before it backs away from its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.

My best guess is that they tighten for the first time on November 5, although it doesn’t really matter. A 25 bp’s increase in a 1.0% Fed funds rate is not going to rock the economy. Besides, 6 month deposit rates are now 1.27% and three month rates are 1.15%. Figure it out, if you want to “create” 3-month money for three months from now (borrow 6 month money and lend it for 3 months), it will cost you about 1.42%. In the real world, the markets have already tightened for Greenspan. All the Fed can do now is have an announcement effect.

At the end of the week the G7 Finance Minister and Central bankers will be meeting in Washington, D.C. China has been invited to participate. We assume that dollar policy is on hold and that Japan’s massive dollar intervention policy is on ice. It is fitting that China will be attending because yuan policy is likely to be at the top of the forex agenda. Japan is not going to let the yen rise significantly until the yuan mores. I have seen several reports in the past few weeks suggesting greater forex flexibility from China. It’s all a question of timing.

As for Japan and the yen, as they were early in the year, capital flows are said to remain heavy, but currently they are two way. Foreigners are still said to be putting money in while local fund managers look for opportunities abroad. It the fall and winter, flows were all in one direction (inbound).

This week will see the 1Q04 earnings reports from about one third of the S&P. We might be able to glean something about the strength of the economy and the economy and what is in store for employment from the general trends evident in these data.

Data today are only Leading Economic Indicators. This index is built on figures we have mostly already seen.

CALENDAR:
MONDAY, APRIL 19, 2004
14:00 GMT- US- Mar Leading Indicators: vs. 0.0% in Feb, see +0.3%

TUESDAY, APRIL 20, 2004
01:30 GMT-AUS- NAB Quarterly Business Survey
08:30 GMT- UK- Mar CPI: vs. +0.3%, +1.3% y/y
11:00 GMT- CDA- March CPI, vs. +0.2%
US- FRB Chm Greenspan testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on “examination of the current condition of banking and credit union industries.”

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- March Trade, vs. Y1.04 tln
08:30 GMT- UK- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes
12:30 GMT- CDA- March Leading Indicators
11:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
14:00 GMT- US- FRB Chm Greenspan testifies to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on the U.S. economy
18:00 GMT- Fed’s Beige Book

THURSDAY APRIL 22, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- weekly Portfolio Flows
08:30 GMT- UK- March Retail Sales: vs. +6.5% y/y in Feb
GER- Apr preliminary CPI (date approx): vs. +0.3%, +1.1% in March
EUR- ECB Governing Council meeting: non-monetary policy agenda
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims

FRIDAY, APRIL 23, 2004
01:30 GMT-AUS- 1Q04 Trade Price Indices
06:45 GMT- FRA- Mar final CPI: vs. preliminary +0.4%, +1.7% y/y in Feb
08:30 GMT- UK- 1Q04 preliminary GDP: vs. +0.9%, +2.7% y/y in 4Q03
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Durable Goods Orders: vs. +2.5% in Feb, see +0.8%
G-7 meeting on April 23-24
IMF and World Bank meetings on April 24-25

GA TJ 11:28 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
farmacia

The reason I posed the Q is that AUDUSD is starting to roll over to the Short side with my goodies. Not confirmed yet but starting to see some initial indicator change. Not interested in being the sacrificial lamb so will wait for more confirmation.

Melbourne Qindex 11:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:14 GMT April 19, 2004
GBP/USD : The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.7772 - 1.8088. The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.8140 // 1.8193.


... 1.7666* ... // 1.7772* - 1.7825 - 1.7877 - 1.7930 - 1.7983* - 1.8035 - 1.8088* - 1.8140 // 1.8193* ...

Minnesota Mark 11:14 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 10:53 GMT April 19, 2004

Went short cable at 1.8124, looking for downside around 17650-17700, possible rush of selling at that point to 1.75 area. After that looking for upside to 1.85 area. Of course this is just my fantasy but I'm stickin with it.

melbourne farmacia 11:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 10:53 GMT April 19, 2004
Assume longs still in play from friday, as indicators haven't turned as yet.

LONDON AVERA 11:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
short is my view 1.2025-1980 more later

GA TJ 10:53 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
There were a few traders how posted thoughts of taking Short positions for Euro at 1.2050, Cable Shorts and Swissy Long in the 1.2880 area (I think). Include myself in this group. I was wondering if the market movement in the 5 hours or so has changed your view?

TJ

PS I never entered a position instead choose to get some sleep before the moves happened. Hindight says that was a good decision.

Ldn 10:51 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BBC report news that police in Manchester have carried out raids under the Terrorism Act said to be putting pressure on GBP

singapore stevany 10:49 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
anybody here know the service of forexforesight ? thank u

oslo oskar 10:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
???????? Quiet here.

Melbourne Qindex 09:54 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:54 GMT April 19, 2004
EUR/USD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2099 // 1.2146 and the lower is expected at 1.1862 // 1.1910. The critical level is located at 1.1957 - 1.2004. A projected resistant barrier is located at 1.2058 - 1.2079.


... 1.1862 // 1.1910 - 1.1957 - 1.2004 - 1.2051 - 1.2099 // 1.2146 ...

Montréal Taro 09:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Bris Th

I left a question on the help forum for you

hong kong nt 09:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- 195.9 may mark the top for today...

Melbourne Qindex 09:34 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

UB Tulga 09:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Longed EUR/USD at 1.2063 targeting 1.2115

Gen dk 09:28 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Minnesota Mark 09:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Thank you for the imput peoples, that is the one thing I love about this forum.. Not only will people share their ideas, but the thoughts behind them giving new lost souls like myself more of a wide view in which to base further choices on.

Edinburgh econoscot.com 09:08 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Eurozone industrial output a smidgeon higher than expected +0.1% m/m +0.6% y/y for Feb and Jan figures revised up by 0.1% also. Not a big deal really, the best you can say is that things are not getting any worse. Notably though, the high euro in the comparable period seems to have had little overall effect on the numbers.........despite all the bleating at the time.

hong kong nt 09:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP -- weekly upside potential noted at 1.840 line, see if the tech sales at 1.8120/50 may work or not...

Nottingham 09:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 08:59 GMT

there is resistance at 8130/35 and more substantial at 8175/85...a short at the latter would be, to coin one of viies' soundbites, a gift from the fx gods should the pair have failed to provide any kind of retracement from the 8130/35 zone...I would watch eurgbp and look for it to be close to 6625 levels at around the same time (as 8180/85) as a secondary indicator...gl gt

Ldn Viewer 09:04 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   

Cable has rallied to-and-through Friday"s high of 1.8055 since the European open, with buoyancy aided by a BBC website-reported prediction from a Rightmove director that UK house price inflation could hit 20% this year--compared to 10%
in 2003.
Such predictions increase the pressure on the MPC to deliver further base rate rises down the line in addition to next month"s expected 25bp hike.
The session high-to-date falls just shy of 1.8095--a 50% Fibo retracement point of the fall from last Tuesday"s high of 1.8420 to last Thursday"s 2004 low of
1.7764, with a break of 1.8100 opening up additional topside risk towards 1.8170(a 61.8% Fibo retracement point of the fall from 1.8420 to 1.7764).
Support is now pegged at 1.8055, with 1.8000, 1.7969 (Asian session base), and 1.7925 (Friday"s pullback low from 1.8055), below.

From IFR

Again its all interest rates and will make for choppy markets IMHO ...

Melbourne Qindex 09:02 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Minnesota Mark 08:59 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Ok, just sold my call options on GBP and purchased puts again. Anyone concur on a temporary top? Looking for a fall to around 176.5 from here.

HK Byron 08:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks ab and nt.

Nottingham 08:43 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp...focus now last week's high...failure to hold may see test of 6625 later today/this week...but if reaction low keep honest by last week's high then door still open for retest of key 6700/05 zone...gl gt

hong kong nt 08:41 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
BYRON -- better trade prev range for a while until signals are seen for usd surge...

sgp sp 08:40 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks ab....

hk ab nz 0.6 08:39 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
sp, aud/nzd may mark a double top now.

however, I would sideline and wait for further confirmation.

Edinburgh econoscot.com 08:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
UK PPI Input +1.9% m/m +0.8% y/y, PPI Output +0.4% m/m, + 1.3% y/y. Higher input prices still not being passed on and the major compnents were price rises on tobacco and alchohol at the budget. Not as worrying for inflation as the headline numbers would suggest. Nevertheless, these figures hint at a little higher than consensus CPI tomorrow.

hk ab nz 0.6 08:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
indeed, I am interested in opening a 2 weeks option on nzd.

hk ab nz 0.6 08:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Byron, if this (dlrcad) early bird doesn't move much, the other major will not move too far away.

MONACO OGA 08:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 06:56, I have 1,2172 today for the 200 days moving average EUR/SD daily.
the 50 MA currently stands at 1.2199 and getting closer to 1.2172, the two should soon cross and send a somewhat bearish signal. I would be very surprised to see EUR/USD ABOVE 1,22 in the coming days. I expect the market to turn bullish USD again, with USD/JPY regaining 110-115 and US rates sharply up soon.
Good luck++

HK Byron 08:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 08:18 GMT April 19, 2004
nt, do u note that cad can't show any strength towards usd? maybe that tells sth.

ab, tells sth about?

Tallinn viies 08:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
good day all
humble euro tested 1,2060 as planned. now my new target 1,2120. planning to buy more euros at 1,1960/70 area. selling out half at 1,2120 all goes at 1,2180/90. fwiw

hk ab nz 0.6 08:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nt, do u note that cad can't show any strength towards usd? maybe that tells sth.

vancouver Thrakos 08:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Early profit taking on short USDCHF ... was hopping for more. retracement anyone?

hong kong nt 07:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- hope AUD .7300-.7500 range may work again this week...

Ldn Viewer 07:52 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Seems we have/are seeing some short covering this morning with some stops being run and thus adding to the EUR strength this am .. to me its all position squaring ahead of Mr G and the if/if not he will signal rate rises or not ... will wait for a clearer picture ... GL all

van Gecko 07:33 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
yep Thrakos.. home is Gooseland, but now snoozing & snorkelling off the Strait of Taiwan..

hong kong nt 07:29 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- selling close to fibo res at GBP/JPY 196 maybe safer, if seen...

LONDON AVERA 07:28 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I SEE PLUS MAX TODAY 1.21, SELL LEVEL PROFIT 1.2025

LONDON AVERA 07:27 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
1.81 GBP.........

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:25 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW first resistance was taken out now eur/usd will be looking for the second with strength growing for the bullish run. Intraday indicators are a bit on the O/B territory so maybe it won’t be able to print 1.2100 on the first try. If the next resistance goes then 1.2130-40 and 1.2180-90 will be next in line. I will be looking for 1.2100 to print soon IMHO. GL GT

vancouver jpb 07:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
The place to be after any canuck game:

Brandies, Yahooo!!!!

LONDON ARK 07:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR GO..TO 1.21 LEVEL TO SELL

vancouver Thrakos 07:17 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
U in Van gecko?

vancouver Thrakos 07:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
:) Yep hunk hunk

van Gecko 07:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Thrakos.. how's the weather back in Lotusland? Canuck fans must be dancing on top of GM Place after last night's win..;)

ZP Nemo 07:09 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Sentiment is only mildly bullish towards the EUR/USD, as economic fundamentals still favour the USD. Analysts feel that if Greenspan delivers a dovish message the EUR/USD could break above 1.2055/65 resistance, but moves
above 1.2100 are viewed as selling opportunities.

Mumbai Mitali 07:06 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Pound's first resistance aeen at 1.8098 , if this is broken, the next target is 1.8150.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:03 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nt// dlr/jpy b/e.

LONDON ARK 07:03 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
1.21-1.2025

hong kong nt 06:56 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
OGA -- the EURO 200-day MA appears 1.202 on my chart...

Nottingham 06:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
euro...very good resistance at 12050/60...if cleared market will take it as an indication of good demand for euro and may well push to next technical resitance at 12100/10...gl gt

hong kong nt 06:51 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 06:43 -- can you suggest entry and stop levels ? thanks

MONACO OGA 06:50 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 19/04
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2020), 35 pips higher than Friday's opening. As already noticed, EUR/USD rebounded once again above 1,19 level on weaker than expected March US industrial production and Univ of Michigan consumer confidence. Today we will be looking for the continuation of the consolidative pattern. 2 intraday supportive levels : 1,1980-90 then 1,1930-40. First resistance around 1,2060, then multi day resistance above 1,2175 (200 period moving average on the daily chart). Overall we are still neutral on the medium term but we will carefully monitor official declarations on USD value (with Mr SNOW reiterating his strong USD policy last thursday) and on the evolution of US interest rates (anticipations of future rate hikes).

Data out today:
UK PPI Mar expected 1,2% 08.30 GMT
EURO Ind Prod sa Feb expected 0.0% 09.00 GMT
US leading indicators 14.00 GMT

Gold regaining ground to 404.50, with WTI May at 37,67 still up on highest demand since 1999.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 108,05) dipped to 107,50 before regaining 108 level overnight, mainly on the asumptions that a BOJ/MOF purchase campain is underway, fuelled by Mr SNOW's recent comments. Support at 107.40-50 and a more significant one at 106.70. Next resistances at 109,00 then 109,75.
EUR/JPY (currently 129.95) stabilizing inside 129.20-130.20.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8030) regaining 130 pips from Friday's open as we expected. We'll be looking for 1,8050 to provide some resistance while any retracement to 1,7920-30 should see buying interest emerge. If 1,8050 breaks, we'll be looking to buy cable for a 1.8150-75 target.
EURGBP (0,6672) testing 0.6660 support but still rangy inside 0.6660-0.6710. We still faour the downside and we'll be looking for a retracement to 0,6630-40.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

vancouver Thrakos 06:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Gecko you read my mind ... :) now let's just hope you'r right

hong kong nt 06:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- we may see GBP/JPY 196.3 today

Gold Coast martin 06:43 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
6 trading sessions to go for aud/usd to go to 7150....g/l g/t

Melbourne Qindex 06:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

van Gecko 06:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Euro may be on the verge of repeating late March's 300 pip retracement up to 1.2390.. however, since not all retracements are born equal, the underlying market dynamics may push it up over 1.24 this time..
with 1.19 acting as a baseline, a near term weekly close over 1.2150 may see long time & born again euro_topians doing bull dances in the streets of Barcelona..
Cheerios..


LONDON ARK 06:35 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
PROFIT 1.1965-1.1925

vancouver jpb 06:27 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
WELL... WELL.... another week in the salt mines. Time to fight for those pips.

I'm betting on downward moves for Euro & Cable.

Looking for a 1.2050 range for a Euro Sell & a 1.8060 range on Cable sell. W/ a standard 50 pip SL.

and

and upward for swissy.

Entery range @ 1.2875 for my buy.

GL & GT

LONDON ARK 06:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR-USD GO DOWN, WHAT DO YOU THINK??

Brisbane L 06:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
(AP)Tony Locantro, a senior private client adviser with Patersons Securities in Perth, feels that the recent pullback on the silver market may be a plus as it eliminated many of the "weak hands". "The washout was positive, however few could have predicted its severity," said Locantro.

Melbourne Qindex 06:05 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 05:42 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
toronto yes drug related

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:36 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
diego overdosed?

Ldn 05:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Maradona 'critical'
Argentine soccer legend Diego Maradona is in critical condition in hospital after suffering a heart attack

hk ab nz 0.6 05:13 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nt, gbp/jpy licking the upper line agan 195, wanna buy break or sell the tough line?

ICT ML 05:11 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
well guys...nothing crystal clear, but weekly cable and euro are tellign me it closes south this week.

tonight, eur-gbp on the hourly had an MA "orgy" crossing at .6675..with 5 short term Ma's converging there, and it broke my support for the bounce last week as well, so looking to see it sell off a bit today.

Aussie looks to me like a sell on a failure at .7500 this session maybe but not 100% about that.

Anyways, trade smart this week, don't get attached to anything entreed this late in the game until something breaks clean. Been flat in our book since 4/14 looking for better R/R scenarios.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:10 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy 108.80.......now trail is placed at b/e

Melbourne Qindex 04:12 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF It is going to move higher.

Melbourne Qindex 04:01 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


HK Byron 04:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Safety sell GBPUSD around 1.8060~1.81, stop loss 1.8155

hong kong nt 03:57 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
AB -- we guess GBP may trade within 1.797-1.812 for today. fwiw...

vancouver Thrakos 03:56 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Ina* mr.co'z 03:48 GMT April 19, 2004
my friends...i got short cable at 1.8028 ...and i used elliot wave for my prediction. ofcoures could b wrong...:) thats why i placed my stop at 1.8060..
Chicago gwest 03:45 GMT April 19, 2004
I think he means that he shorted Cable at spot
and his s/l is.....
hk ooozmeeh 03:42 GMT April 19, 2004
MR>CO'Z..... my cable high today is 1.8030..how could you "SHORTED" it at 1.8060? gl/gt
hk ooozmeeh 03:40 GMT April 19, 2004
thrakos.. your question to mr.coz' should be "How did could he shorted cable at 1.8060 where infact it has'nt reached that level for today?

Ur right hk, but i still c no reason for shorting if it brakes that level the its a long all the way 40 - 100 pips anyways ... before reversal if not a week of recovery.

DAK TK 03:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Any Aussie view for today? TIA

Ina* mr.co'z 03:48 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
my friends...i got short cable at 1.8028 ...and i used elliot wave for my prediction. ofcoures could b wrong...:) thats why i placed my stop at 1.8060..

Chicago gwest 03:45 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
I think he means that he shorted Cable at spot
and his s/l is.....

hk ooozmeeh 03:42 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
MR>CO'Z..... my cable high today is 1.8030..how could you "SHORTED" it at 1.8060? gl/gt

hk ooozmeeh 03:40 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
thrakos.. your question to mr.coz' should be "How did could he shorted cable at 1.8060 where infact it has'nt reached that level for today?

vancouver Thrakos 03:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
shorted cable sl.1.8060..tp.1.7975..imo..gl/gt..???
Good luck I gess .. just out of curiosity what made u do that? :)

Brisbane L 03:37 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
CANBERRA (AP)--Spain's decision to withdraw its troops from Iraq will encourage more insurgency and bloodshed in the troubled Middle East nation, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Monday.

Va Raven 03:23 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Woodward’s new book “Plan of attack” cited that Saudi’s ambassador to US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan promised Bush that Saudi would low the oil price before Nov. 2nd presidential election to strengthen the US economy.
The impact on dollar is hard to assess; take the eur/usd pair for a study case, low oil price would give us low inflation pressure which would decrease the possibility of an urgent hike by Fed and increase the chance for ECB’s cut while the market is trying to time the both events as a relevant issue to position itself for a short run direction (several month period). Oil price links to economic strength that leads to interests rate direction which would ultimately decide the dollar’s near term future. It’s not a black and white case, but in any case, we have to prepare for a low oil price situation from now on. Believe this would be one of the major background noises for dollar’s near term direction and whoever figures that out early should have the membership of that “5% club”. (just kidding, Oilman)

Ina* mr.co'z 03:09 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hi all..!

shorted cable sl.1.8060..tp.1.7975..imo..gl/gt..

Melbourne Qindex 02:31 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

perth 02:27 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
looks like an early Monday short squeeze on euro & aud stops.

hk ab nz 0.6 02:20 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
sp// I don't feel v. pity on this 'cos the break of aud/nzd 1.1630 in this way seems to me we can have further chance to buy on pull back, let's see.
may be wait for another chance at 1.1550?

singapore newkid 02:18 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD long now

sgp sp 02:16 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, we got to leave this aud/nzd fiasco behind us now and concentratre else where. :(

SG Jay 02:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on euro ?

hk ab nz 0.6 02:10 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nt// the dlr/jpy buying looks v. mechanic and I think it will be bounced up and down with big range on 110.70 and 105.

Dallas GEP 02:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Well Mark, need to talk to Norm Green about that, HE was your owner at the time.

Well it looks like LONDON will have to decide short term this see saw battle. WOuldn't be too surprised to see POUND long and Euro short.

Gen dk 02:00 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.6 01:59 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
short half aussie .7480

hk ab nz 0.6 01:55 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
nt// how's your c9 index now?

SF Augustus 01:46 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
A couple of Questions on the HELP Forum regarding the potential for successful fx trading in the near future with global interest rates poised for higher levels. For anyone who cares. Thx.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Yippee, any view on aud today?

Minnesota Mark 01:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on GBP? Is is going to shoot straight up to 1.88 for me or is it going to retrace to 1.7550 first? Went long on the 15th around 1.7825. Like options but hate not being able to trade until 5 or 6am central time.

Minnesota Mark 01:39 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:41 GMT April 19, 2004

Thats what happens when you steal someone elses team.. Who ever heard of playing hockey in places like Texas or Florida anyway?

jkt leny 01:38 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hk do you know service fxunigma.com is it good thank you?

hk ab nz 0.6 01:34 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd breaks 1.1630 with no blasting effect...
Hm.. should stay long then....
tough luck to have closed it.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:33 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I am interested in shorting eur/chf here, your thought?

hk ab nz 0.6 01:29 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
May be it's time for those late retracement comes on dlr/cad and dlr/jpy.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:20 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
viies, u have 1.21 nut to crack.

sp//how genius the aud/nzd players, hehhee.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:15 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
same time, same order long jpy....

nt//my t/p 108.80.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
chf trying to close gap?

Dallas GEP 01:07 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
WARNING I think Euro/GBP trading range will be LOWER this week perhaps .6620 to .6680

Melbourne Qindex 00:58 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:52 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The key quantised level of my weekly cycle is located at 0.6663.

GA TJ 00:47 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
It looks like I missed my Long Entry on Swissy at 1.2889. My low so far is 1.2892. I think with this eratic market over the past few trading days you really need to pick your spots. Going to hold tight on Euro Short order at 1.2050. Might miss that on too but is better than getting a stop hit from a lower entry. Cable I think is bit more strained. Will consider short at 1.8075

Montréal Taro 00:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep, exactly my point, Hatcher was your best defenceman, captain
and the leader on your team. What about the support ?

OK SZ 00:44 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep, sounds like your also describing the mavericks-lol..defense wins championships...but a long way to go..keep the faith..have a good trading day mate..

Dallas GEP 00:41 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Stars problem was leadership and it has been all year from the PLAYERS standpoint. TURCO was nothing better than average especially in playoffs. I beleive their talent matches ANYBODY out there. Their HEART tho does not. Modano was a BIG dissapointment and DEFENSE was at best average.

Tallinn viies 00:40 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 00:13 - yes, I think we will see 1,2190 this week.
going to sleep now, good night. left order to 1,1967

Montréal Taro 00:32 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep, 1.8060 as resistance is good enough for me, what about 1.7850 as support ?

Too bad for the stars, I think it's been a hard lost when you lost Hatcher last summer.

Melbourne Qindex 00:29 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 00:28 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone shorts aud $ ? its at 38% fibo , any opinions?

hk ab nz 0.6 00:14 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
martin// any sessions left on your .7150?

hk ab nz 0.6 00:13 GMT April 19, 2004 Reply   
viies// noted.

looks like u are planning to add at 1.1950.

 




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