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Forex Forum Archive for 04/24/2004

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Quito Ecuador Valdez 22:07 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am// You're what Lea & Perrins is to T bone steak. Nice post. Afterall, the soup's got to have more than just salt and pepper. Was just saluting cause in preference to materialism. "If no one remembers it in 100 years, it wasn't important." Henry Ford. Material things vanish. Valor, never. The fact that Iraq had no direct war with anyone except its own horribly repressed people from a lavish fat cat dictator who lapped up oil money like a cat does milk, who thought more about his own embellishment than a hungry waif on the street, was fact enough for us to vanquish this rascal and all who would do him proud. 9-11 served as only an excuse to clean the dessert. One can embrace servitude or magnitude, depends on who's doing the serving and who's not. I say we did the right thing in principle but the planners do most certainly get an F-.

It's like when you enter a great possie and it goes against you and you lose some pips before you realize it's time to close. Then you watch for another opportunity and to cover that loss you enter but with a few lots more than the first possie. And again it turns on you. So you sit back, think, re-enter with even a few more lots to cover the first two losses and boom, it backfires again. You think of the thousands you lost and all of what you could have done with that. And so is war. This war. All war. When will the "big" account be margin called and after how many lives and resources that could have been better spent? When the last taps blows.

Wellington am 21:36 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
The latest US$ bull run is a function short squaring. I, like many others, saw an opportunity to borrow cheap USD and invest in property and other asset classes. We benefited from low rates, a falling USD and rising asset prices. The latest spike comes a sea of this money is repatriated. The underlying US weakness is still there. Big question is how much money is still to be returned, and what the herd effect is that follows this money back.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 21:26 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Having been a volunteer (RA) Nam vet, ex sgt, beret..my view is that money & glitz are not everything. Pat Tillman volunteered for freedom, to defend our very lifestyle, and died for what he felt was right, turning down millions of dollars to do so and vanquishing tyrants in the process. Fine. I think there is a little of Pat Tillman in any decent man. To me, Pat's glory today far outshines the glory of the NFL, million dollar contracts and material things. He simply wanted to help and would not take 9-11 sitting down enjoying a high life style when his countrymen died around him. His glory is real and no one can take it away. "Death to tyrants". "Semper fi". "Can do". "Don't tread on me". Clichés mean business when men like Pat Tillman prove it. I hear taps in the background. Over 700 U.S. brave men have died in Iraq this go 'round, adding to that coalition forces' casualties not to mention thousands of wounded. Each deserves the same individual supreme freedom fighting glory. 'Nuff said. GL GT.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:47 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Today: A former American football star, Pat Tillman (Arizona Cardinals) who gave up a £2m contract to join the U.S. Army Rangers in the 9-11 aftermath, has been killed in Afghanistan.

American officials said he was killed during an intense gunfight in the south-east of the country as his Army Ranger unit hunted al Qaeda and Taliban guerrillas.

GVI john 18:51 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   

Statement of G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors - April 24, 2004

The global economic recovery continued to strengthen and broaden since we met in February. Prospects are favorable, and although risks remain, such as energy prices, overall the balance of risks to the outlook has improved. Additional pro-growth reforms are essential to deliver stronger and more balanced global growth, boost employment, and raise incomes. As part of the Agenda for Growth, we discussed our priorities for tax and labor market reform. We reaffirmed our commitment to sound public finances and monitored implementation of strategies for sustained medium term fiscal consolidation as economies recover. Progress in these fiscal areas and in the Agenda for Growth are key to addressing the current global imbalances. To deliver faster and more widespread global growth, and to fight global poverty, rapid progress on and early conclusion of the Doha Round is imperative and will require action by all parties to resolve key outstanding issues.

We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely and cooperate as appropriate. In this context, we emphasize that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas that lack such flexibility to promote smooth and widespread adjustments in the international financial system, based on market mechanisms.

Economic fundamentals have improved in many emerging market countries. Yet, sustained and sound policies are essential to support lasting growth and reduce external vulnerabilities. In the case of Argentina, progress has been made, but further progress is required.

In developing countries, the private sector is key to growth and poverty reduction. Small businesses play a critical role, but unfavorable business climates are often a constraint. We call on MDBs to accelerate the development of joint action plans with governments to improve investment climate and to scale up their support for small businesses with specific measurable results. The G-7 met entrepreneurs from developing countries and reiterated support for their efforts. We urge private sector views to be consistently included in MDB assistance plans. On remittances, we will continue to work on our initiatives to reduce barriers that raise the cost of sending them and to integrate remittance services in the formal financial sector. We are committed to working with governments, the private sector, and MDBs to broaden the access for families and entrepreneurs to financial services.

Official development assistance, including more effective use of grants, will remain key. We reaffirm our commitment to fight global poverty and to help countries achieve the international development goals of the Millennium Declaration through our work on debt sustainability, aid effectiveness, absorption capacity, and financing facilities.

As part of the preparation for the Sea Island Summit and to mark the 60th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Institutions, we continued our Strategic Review of these institutions. Our focus is on giving clarity to official sector policy and objectives, increasing accountability, and country ownership. We are committed to improving the delivery and results of their programs and policies.

We met again with Ministers from key countries to strengthen the fight against terrorist financing. We call on all countries to meet their commitments to tighten asset freezing regimes, to prevent abuse of non profit organizations, and to stop cash transfers used to finance terror. We strongly welcomed the IMF/World Bank commitment to comprehensive assessments. We reaffirmed our commitment to further enhance transparency and supervisory standards in financial markets, in particular non-compliant off-shore centers.

Economic growth and job creation in the greater Middle East are a shared priority. We will meet with regional Ministers this evening to discuss their reform efforts and regional economic integration including through financial reform and private sector growth. We stand ready to assist Iraq, Afghanistan, and West Bank and Gaza in their development efforts. We reviewed progress on the Afghanistan Action Plan, including the positive results of the Berlin conference. We call on others to join us in reducing the debt burdens of Iraq and Afghanistan.


LAX-LGB SNP 17:34 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 15:22 GMT April 24, 2004

Dell moved back its operations after customers told the higher-ups that its call center reps were receptive 'like a sponge' but just as non-effective

FWiW the next blow to the call-center industry is going to come from speech tech systems

Eilat Dolphin 16:38 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
75% Of Greek Cypriotes vote against reunification, 60% of Turkish Cypriotes vote for it.

After Marechal Luyauté took over Morocco in 1913 and ruled it, he used to say: " You put a Frenchen head in a pot together with a Native, and after ten years you still get two soups."

I just hate this sentence, so I thank you for bearing it with me...

Global-View GVI 16:37 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
G-7 Ministers Pledge `Pro-Growth Reforms' to Ensure Expansion LINK

perrie como 15:29 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
for trivia lovers would suggest the following book...bibi now

With his best-selling Globalization and Its Discontents, Joseph E. Stiglitz showed how a misplaced faith in free-market ideology led to many of the recent problems suffered by the developing nations. Here he turns the same light on the United States.

This groundbreaking work by the Nobel Prize-winning economist argues that much of what we understood about the 1990s' prosperity is wrong, that the theories that have been used to guide world leaders and anchor key business decisions were fundamentally outdated. Yes, jobs were created, technology prospered, inflation fell, and poverty was reduced. But at the same time the foundation was laid for the economic problems we face today. Trapped in a near-ideological commitment to free markets, policymakers permitted accounting standards to slip, carried deregulation further than they should have, and pandered to corporate greed. These chickens have now come home to roost.

ham cla 15:26 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Sheffield SH : thats a great link sh, have a good w/e!

perrie como 15:22 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
seen some outsourcing particurlarly india call centers for US might move back home....global failure?

perrie como 15:12 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
might start to short trade for some months for now I am not

perrie como 15:09 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
haifa...:) that one is not human I guess

hk ab...sorry for talking so widerly, but I think also following other trough forums, even for short term purposes, could well be a karakiri tactics....seems also many demo traders just learning here more than trading.....btw this was just a look to the g7 to me, more thant else....

see you in june
bibi

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:54 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
como// I think the FF accomodates quite a number of diff. traders here. For your excessive view on the negative bias on USDs, it's just seem too trivial to be discussed.

All we here well know the basic structural problem of USD. However, you can't tell what could happen in 3 years time and 5 years times. Views bounded to be reasonably time span might be more treasured.

I am just looking forward to seeing your more objective view 'cos it sounds to me those could be quite "fatal" to short term traders.

GL and GT.

Haifa ac 13:36 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 12:05 GMT April 24, 2004
..in the tech sector in couple of years they went from near to 100K USDs to 25-30K....//
Bill Gates made a few (Million) bucks yesterday.

perrie como 12:09 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
ref eur/usd... I have to agree might even move if below some 1.17 to 1.12-11 just there will start to consider eventual dollar positivity but think It requires a widened war...but this is not a risk I like to manage

perrie como 12:05 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
btw the dollar negative view is fundamentally sound...salaries in US are deeply fallin...in the tech sector in couple of years they went from near to 100K USDs to 25-30K....people not buying anymore general consumptions...plus there were official warnings about the shares offered to cover home loans, seems there are huge imbalances....guess peple will prefer to hold the house and sell stocks, if not forced to sell houses if stocks fall as they will be asked for margin covering

too many different risks is the only thing still holding the market this way....so staing out...

perrie como 11:55 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
thanks for your opinion Shangai BC..I am still mumbling about the classics concepts of int. trade balances and global flows as M&A...those could bring more flows to china I guess, if the yuan starts to free float, but guess might take more complex rounds of talks+US elections later on might be you right...probably too soon to consider .....tks

ref..hk ab....well I stay on my own which is euro, no trades presently....just thinking about vacations somewhere may to june and then start anew if markets becomes less risky

Sheffield SH 11:30 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
re my previous post; The correct link to the Euro 4 hourly: Here

Sheffield SH 11:26 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Tho I see Euro down to 1.1590, the link to the weekly Euro chart highlights a possible area of support in the 1710/50 area IMHO.

Euro Weekly Chart

The Euro 4hr chart shows an interesting line in the sand too. Hope it helps. GL GT


shanghai bc 10:44 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   

China is not ready to float its Yuan yet although the study to float it sometime down the road is active progress for a while now..Revaluing Yuan without floating is out of question..Why should China revalue when its overall international trade balance is in red this year..

hk ab .6 nzd 10:37 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
como// After your massive neg. view on USD here, the conclusion is you heavily short USD and it's a great bargain to short eur further till the exhaustion occurs......imvho.

perrie como 10:08 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
to me end of june dollar/yen could well be below 100

also china seems not buying anymore dollar denominated bonds and was the main buyer and only with japan as from last fall......

also us stocks might drop heavily at least for the currency risks implications and also far from reality earnings estimates

only the war industry could do well, but this will deeply influece negative numbers for the US budget

might be a war escalation from mid to far east to change things....hm not predictable....so think to have my vacations early this year

all the best

perrie como 09:45 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
``There's some risk the market may be getting ahead of itself in terms of the trajectory of Fed tightening,'' said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist in New York at BNP Paribas. In a Bloomberg News survey published April 12, the bank predicted the Fed's first rate increase would be in December.

BNP Paribas projects a dollar decline to $1.29 per euro by the end of June.

perrie como 09:37 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
not to mention war/terror eventualities.....

As a result of his survey of the history of money the author concludes:

"The military ratchet was the most important single influence in raising prices and reducing the value of money in the past 1,000 years, and for most of that time debasement was the most common, but not the only, way of strengthening the `sinews of war'." (page 646)

However, despite its importance, military expenditure has not been the only cause of inflation, nor has it been the most important in every case.

One of the author's main themes is the problem of simultaneously trying to control the quality and quantity of money. He discusses many cases of inflation over the past couple of thousand years and identifies several (not necessarily mutually exclusive) causes. These are:

Conflict between the Interests of Debtors and Creditors.
The Fungibility of Money
The Population Explosion
The Military Ratchet
The Developmental Money Ratchet
As a result of the above-mentioned factors the supply of money tends to alternate in every age between too little and too much, with the pendulum swinging from excessive concern with the quality of money to the opposite extreme of an inflationary, excessive quantity of money.

This is the basis of the author's Pendulum Meta-Theory of money, i.e. a "general theory comprising sets of more limited, partial theories, which spring out of the special circumstances of their time. The enveloping pendulum or metatheory also explains why the usual theories of money, despite being so confidently held at one time, tend to change so drastically and diametrically (and therefore so puzzlingly to the uninitiated) to an equally accepted but opposite theory within the time span appropriate to historical investigation." (pages 31-32).

In support of these claims Glyn Davies ranges widely, both chronologically, from the dawn of civilization about 3000 BC onwards, and geographically from China to the New World, Denmark to Fiji. Thus a huge range of evidence regarding the causes of changes in both the quality and quantity of money is surveyed and the author concludes Chapter 12, Global Money in Historical Perspective, with the words of the Russian novelist Dostoevsky:

"Money is coined liberty."

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/war.html

perrie como 09:29 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
hi iw if the long term us interest rate curve raises next weeks/month yes ...sharp flows out of bonds will dominate the dollar fall running towards gold and euro..if china and japan do not open up to international standardization of markets......at least IMHO

Helsinki iw 08:35 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
perrie, would the dollar drop against non-Asian currencies as
well?

perrie como 07:59 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
china free yuan could well mean huge dollar drop...;

would It happen overnight??

opinions?

perrie como 07:58 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
The fund has urged Europe to open up its labor markets, Japan to further overhaul its banking and corporate sectors, and China to move toward ending its yuan-dollar peg.

The monetary fund also said that the trade deficit in the United States, which has done its work of encouraging U.S. and world growth, must be trimmed. The deficit, it warned, could push up global interest rates, thereby dampening growth elsewhere.

"The world economy would be far healthier if the Japanese and the Europeans were growing more rapidly, as well," the fund's acting managing director, Anne Krueger, said.

perrie como 07:39 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
On foreign exchange, the G7 repeated a warning adopted in Florida in February that "excess volatility and disorderly movements" were undesirable for growth. It also reaffirmed that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals, and urged more currency flexibility in big economies that lacked it.

Melbourne Qindex 01:04 GMT April 24, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 02:22 GMT April 23 - Thank you for your kind words.

 




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