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Forex Forum Archive for 04/27/2004

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Normandy Nick 23:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hi everyone,
Right now the charts are set to favor the dollar. Morevover dollars buyers got "chechmate" again today. So the wind is likely to change of direction. Native sectors for the opening:
Euro/usd: overbought (factor 3/8) 1.1940/1.1900
usd/chf :oversold (factor 4/8) 1.2960/1.3000
gbp/usd : overbought ( factor 2/8) 1.7930/1.7870
aud/usd overbought (factor 2/8) 0.7355/0.7380

These numbers can change a little bit(except the o/bs factors) with the new daily tick on my chart and if so I would tell you.

PD SAP 23:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS, ANY TOUGHTS EURO/SWISS CROSS?

Global-View New Research Section 23:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY, CHECK OUT THE NEW FREE RESEARCH SECTION ACCESSIBLE ON THE BOTTOM LEFT OF THE GLOBAL-VIEW HOMEPAGE or See LINK

Global-View Virus Alert 23:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
A new virus has just been discovered that has been classified by Microsoft as the most destructive ever! This virus wasn discovered yesterday afternoon by McAfee and no vaccine has yet ! Been developed.

This virus simply destroys Sector Zero from the hard disk, where vital information for its functioning are stored. This virus! acts in the following manner: It sends itself automatically to all contactsmon your list with the title "A Card for You". As soon as the supposed virtual card is opened, the computer freezes so that the user has to reboot. When the ctrl+alt+del keys or the reset button are pressed, the virus destroys Sector Zero, thus permanently destroying the hard disk. Yesterday in just a few hours this virus caused panic in New York, according to news broadcast by CNN This alert was received by an employee of Microsoft itself.

So don't open any mails with subject: "A Virtual Card for You."

As soon as you get the mail, delete it..! Even if you know the sender..!

shanghai bc 23:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

Dollar Index hit 200 dma and is having a reaction for the last several days..Even for short-term strategy,it is not very attractive to go long Dollar when Dollar is touching falling 200 dma for the first time after a long time..Money must be on the other side..For medium-/long-term strategy,one must be careful of Eur/Gbp and Eur/Jpy forming the solid floor some weeks down the road..All in all,caution is the word for new born-again Dollar bulls at this late stage..Dollar may bounce more towards Usd/Chf 1.35+ at some point but it is who holds the bag that counts..No money in holding the bag for others..Fwiw..

ICT ML 23:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 22:30 GMT....yes, I was referrring to the hourly RSI trend line that it just won't break for some reason......in a wedge now.....I guess it is just the choppiness that has caused this to occur....


Brisbane L 23:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
LTN th my personal view is that interest rates are far too low in the US and UK and need to reach a level that will take away the Speculative mentality from the market - the problem with the housing market most punters get deep into debt and many individuals are not aware of the workings in the financial arena , only what is presented to them on the Lifestyle channels and local newpapers promoting how to renovate or sell your home for a profit. your statement( I prefer the fundamental view that it is and should basically reflect the supply/demand of loan funds in each market sector.) I think this leads to problems down the track if punters are loaning on interest rates at unsustainable levels and believe they will be never increase , its very sad but many get into debt way over their head as in the early 1990s only to find when prices drop they have negative equity.
And nobody on the Lifestyle Channesl warned them of that.

Stockholm za 23:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...
The hourly Point Your Finger charts has given a doubble top today with no brake out , Bull trap range at ~1,2000/80
Happy trades.....

LTN th 22:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 22:03 // Some peoples expext all sorts of weird and magical things from interest rates. I prefer the fundamental view that it is and should basically reflect the supply/demand of loan funds in each market sector. To expect more over any protracted period is deluded.
Currently in many countries the supply greatly outstrips demand for a wide variety of reasons, and US and japanese printing presses are not the least nor necessarily inappropriate. Tinkering with interest rates is like a headache tablet. It may give usefull short term symptonatic relief and compliment effewctive treatment. The danger occurs if it masks problems.
This is all very well airy fairy stuff but I would point the finger directly at the need to restructure business environments to encourage widespread, prudent and confident demand for investment funds. People need to re-read Henry Ford.

Eilat Dolphin 22:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML/ I checked stochs, macd, rsi, sars, and seen no discrepency among the indicators on all time spans you mention, including the 2 hours.

Eilat Dolphin 22:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
While some good guys are fighting the Villains of Babylon
The night is slowly fading off on the Pacific rim
These people dress up for their morning hunt
They are out to get your stops.

Brisbane L 22:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Australia's consumer price inflation (CPI)is expected to remain subdued in the March quarter Due 11.30 AEST

Calabash TarHeel 22:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Chicago JMI 21:39 GMT April 27, 2004
I tend to agree with you. Going to give it some more time to see if it will make another run towards 1.1955/60. Should it break thru, I would probably be thinking about selling euros around 1.1990. The key word being, thinking. Too early to call if it does get there.

gl, gt

Brisbane L 22:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

UK interest rates should rise says MPC dove

UK interest rates should rise says MPC dove
One of the leading doves on the Bank of England's monetary policy committee has argued that interest rates need to rise, raising the likelihood that the cost of borrowing will go up next week.


ICT ML 22:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
some bizzarre things happening in my eur-usd techies......the hourly has still failed to breakout of this down swing resistance...but the 4 hr broke out in London time....don't recall ever seeing this before.......usually the 30 min and hourly breakout first then the 4 hr follows.....

go figure.

Brisbane L 21:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
UN Envoy:Iraq Interim Govt Should Be Picked By End Of May
Reuts

Calabash TarHeel 21:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL
Thanks for the prompt reply, we'll see how it plays out. BTW, from a born southerner "Thanks for Stopping By"
Thanks, GL.

Chicago JMI 21:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I don't think 1.2000 will be taken out that easily. Still more downside IMO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel I am not counting the bears out yet but a momentum is building around the bottom of 1.1760-50 and if the 1.1950-60 barrier is taken out then I see rough fibo numbers at 1.2000-10, 1.2070-80, 1.2145-55 and 1.2240-50. Resistance is around 1.2010-30, 1.2180-90 and 1.2250-60 for now IMHO. GL GT

USA Biscuit Boy 21:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Just got stopped.


CAIRO AG 21:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy// Thanks..

GL & GT

Calabash TarHeel 21:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:07 GMT April 27, 2004
I am thinking that if 1.1955/60 is taken out then 1.1990/00 would be the next barrrier and if it clears that, 1.2050/60 would be next.
Your thoughts please.

Tia, gl, gt

USA Biscuit Boy 21:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 21:04 GMT April 27, 2004

Yes doing fine. Placed stop at break-even and looking to take profit around 1.1880.

Moscow Hawk 21:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
pt.jr thank you for your kind words. I hope it will but good correction (4-7 figures) from 1.1550-1.1750 zone before the break looks good for me. Good trades.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
It is nice to see so much useful information in the forum thanks to all those that share with us. The bottom line here is the momentum is shifting to bullish on the eur/usd. If the 1.1950 barrier is taken out it will open the doors for the bulls to establish some kind of ground. There is some room left for more upside on this bounce IMHO. GL GT

GVI john 21:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1925…$/yen 109.40
DJIA 10,479, +33 pts…NASDAQ 2,033, -4 pts
10-yr 4.40%, -5 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE COMPLETE TEXT ON GVI

CAIRO AG 21:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy// Hi... hope ur trading is going ok.

Well, am shorting as well from same level nearly.... where do u think is the SAFEST take profit area for those shorts, as am not gonna be infront of the platform ??? Thanks

USA Biscuit Boy 20:58 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Well that last test of 1.1940 was hardly inspiring. Ill take profit on latest eur/usd short position wherever strong bids emerge.

Tallinn viies 20:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
explaining quite well what is going on out there...
selling in front of 1,1940/50 still not too bad idea.
going to sleep now. hopefully DNT guy keeps in the range

pt.jr 20:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk 20:32 GMT April 27, 2004 ...great job,keep them coming.......do u think 1.550 is gone be seen in the summer?

Tallinn viies 20:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
summary from IFR:
EUR/USD] looks to be trapped in a range just inside a 1.1750/1.1950 double-no-touch. The price action suggests as much after yesterday"s rebound from 1.1760 stalled at 1.1945 today. Barriers are rumored on both sides of the range. The topside barrier got a stern test this afternoon after a coordinated terror attack on the diplomatic area of Damascus, Syria rattled the market as did a resumption of large scale US military activity in Fallujah. Strong US data say 1.1860 given hard, but the market quickly rebounded, tripping stops above 1.1925. It tested 1.1945 after the attacks, but failed. Stops are seen at 1.1960/65, bids at 1.1860.
fwiw

Moscow Hawk 20:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Today’s EUR/USD performance and strong finish indicate upside risk for the pair in coming days and the continuation of upside move to 1.2000-50 is not excepted. It is early to say about the end of this downside leg but time to make more upside for the dollar is running out.

Now it is not bad to look back and see how the downside trend in EUR/USD has developed.

Moscow Hawk 10:22 GMT January 8, 2004
EUR/USD gave up and I think the preferable tactic in EUR/USD for now is selling upticks. 1.2700-50 and 1.2790-40 are good selling areas if seen. Current picture points that upside in EUR/USD is almost exhausted and the bias changed. Mid term targets are 1.2300-50 and 1.20-21. But I hope they are not being reached in a straight line.

Moscow Hawk 16:07 GMT January 25, 2004
Selling EUR/USD 1.2740-75 as suggested proved to be very accurate money-maker. But I think market still needs more time to form the reversal pattern.

From mid term picture updated through weekend on my site:

«…The crucial for the EUR/USD mid term will be 1.2300-50 zone. Clear break of the zone will be very negative for the euro and open 1.20-21 for a test. However while above 1.23 the range trading 1.2300(50)-1.2700(50) is preferable. Move above will ease pressure downside and indicate strong probability that 1.2850-00 will be tested again...»

Moscow Hawk 15:58 GMT March 29, 2004
EUR/USD looks heavy mid term and despite intraday oversold levels I expect it continues to trend downside soon. For few weeks euro has flirted with my mid term zone 1.20-21 after 1.2300-50 was broken and we got reversal confirmation. So far it has managed to escape a break downside but I have almost no doubts that the zone will be passed eventually and we will see the test of 1.1550-1.1750. The break of 1.20 will be catalyst and will open 1.1880-30 for a test initially.

I do not know have we seen the high for the year in EUR/USD. But from this point it looks like it could be the case. As far as downside is concerned I do not expect that zone 1.1550-1.1750 will be broken from the first attempt. If break of lower border of ascending monthly channel occurs most likely it will take place in July-August.


Good luck






Tallinn viies 20:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:26 ignore it

Gen dk 20:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

st. pete islander 19:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, you in the room?

Safes nonstop 19:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
On my 4 hour chart, Eur/USD and Eur/Yen are both at resistence while USD/SF is at support.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
SOLD eur/usd at 1.1936.

Calabash TarHeel 18:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:50 GMT April 27, 2004
fwiw. Waiting to see if AUD/$ will print .7380 to go short.

gl, gt

USA Biscuit Boy 18:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Took my 10 pips on the aussie trade and flat now. Where's the follow thru buying???

Houston ST 18:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
thx; sometimes you get lucky; it's been painful holding during the dips, but profitable in the long run; the past two days have been pretty good as far as range trading; I will try to hold the line thru Thursday's GDP release, then coast for the remainder of the week/month. keep the faith. gl/gt.

OK SZ 18:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
busy with other things...have not traded today..see you have done quite well...good job

Houston ST 18:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ, you up to much today?

Ina mr.co'z 18:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:25 GMT April 27, 2004
its my number 1.8050 - 1.8175..., focus to support at 1.7820...imo..lg/gt..

OK SZ 18:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
my last should read the weak shorts...

OK SZ 18:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
euro I believe has till tursday to move up..with a good gdp number coming I cannot believe the euro will go even higher...this is a move upward to shake all the weak longs out and my belief is we resume the downtrend then..probably wrong again..

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
signal gbp/usd for make higher than 1.7943 before make sell signal.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 0.73 handle

Stockholm za 18:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

fwiw .... Key top side gate-ways at the moment ..
EUR/USD :- 11975 ~ 12010 ~ 12040
GBP/USD :- 17965 ~ 18000 ~ 18040
Happy trades ........

USA Biscuit Boy 18:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Bought aud/usd at 0.7737

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Toronto: will be in my chat shortly..Jay does not want web sites advertised on this forum as it would start a chain reaction of EVERY mother's son wanting to do same. email my Yahoo and I'll give it to you.

eur/usd is straining to get back up to 1.1935 before it shorts, maybe 1.1950..am holding off a bit longer with finger on the trigger. Might long it for a few pips. But in week of 4/1 it spiked 50 pips above the line before shorting.

GER ad 18:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF out at 1.5491

Toronto YV 17:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez , what is your site?

mex sjs 17:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
quito , are you in ur site??

Ldn 17:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sky reports:
A series of blasts have been heard in Damascus, Syria, it has been reported.
The explosions were heard in an area of the capital city where Western embassies are located.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:46 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Prague victor//
Using the 1 day 6 month chart eur/usd could start shorting ANY TIME now and I think that's why it's stagnating this moment. I'm putting in a massive short as I type. As to the temporary bottom, the line of the last few lows puts it at 1.1720ish. But as in the week of 3/3 when it dropped 250 pips..1.15 or 1.1480 isn't impossible. I'm learning, nothing is impossible in FX. The more it drops the happier I'll be!

prague viktor 17:40 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez :Amigo to see 1,14 u need GDP 5%and more and NFP more than 200000 so take it easy there is a lot to do ...G/LG/T

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
St. Pete// OK on the email. quito_valdez is my new yahoo webmail, I guess it's OK to give out webmail isn't it? webmail is "throw away" and not email. If I broke a rule I accept the penalty of being whipped silly with a wet carp.

Van jv 17:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy ///If we reach above 1.1934 ,the April wedge res. line broken, target may be 1.2050-1.2100/latter channel line/ opinion??

mex sjs 17:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 13:33 GMT April 27, 2004
shorted usdchf here at 1.3033 stop 1.3080 tgt 1.2920-50 area, & longed gbpusd at 1.7880 stop 1.7810 tgt= 1.8200, for a couple of days....think usd has room to fall tothose levels ,let's see if it really goes that way...

adding another round of shorts usd.....usdchf here at 1.2992 and gbpusd 1.7888....

Va Raven 17:26 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dear viies,
?????????

st. pete islander 17:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, you folks got some wicked starch and baking soda down there! I've been told it is about $10 each in the states. No wonder they are making sure no one gets in the market. BTW, would like to get your email from Jay, if that is okay. gt

Tallinn viies 17:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:39 - for you I can put target to 1,05 ...

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sheffield sh//
Right on Leon...good charting. The big thing is that whale of a nice short that will follow...down to I suspect 1.17+ max and 1.16+ min if we're being sensible and not hyped. I don't see 1.14 like some do but who knowz in FX? It's fine w/me :^> If it prints 1.14+ then I'd say it would have to be driven by something highly variable in Europe other than "normal" FX. The "true" eur/usd ratio is supposed to actually be 1.10 as viewed by many..the eur is still too hyped...only thing keeping from 1.10 or even lower is USA's tripple deficit. BTW Spain pulled some troops, U.S. g.i.s went in after them and immediately tagged 40 some insurgents, no fuss no muss. Maybe it's best boys step aside.

Sheffield SH 17:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
clon: glenn - Thanks

Va Raven 17:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi, islander, I have never used that pill before, how is it, as good as advertised?

clon glenn 17:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

Thanks for the link SH...nice work

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
St. Pete Islander//
Lucky Al Greenspan isn't in Ecuador to get his Viagra. You can get some prescrip drugs super cheap here. But they busted some guys in Quito making fake Viagra pills out of colored starch and baking soda..looked real according to the news..$1 ea...charging a buck a f***. True! The bottom line was that the fake pills worked according to the buyers! What a placebo.

Rye, NY et 17:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
re: Rye, NY et 16:53 GMT April 27, 2004
"Add" = Re-enter

Sheffield SH 17:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: Agreed - link is to a 4 hourly from Saturday

Sheffield SH 11:30 GMT April 24, 2004
re my previous post; The correct link to the Euro 4 hourly: Here

st. pete islander 17:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raven .... please don't knock that little blue pill! gt

saloniko 2004 nk 17:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

I always rememper ur posts too..;)..

Sometimes really enjoy it..and watch first days of May ...




nk

Haifa ac 17:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:03 GMT // I want him to go home. It is late.

Va Raven 17:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
AC, he is on the wires now, but what are you expecting? Expecting him to say how important and useful that drug is?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
If we look at the 1day-6month chart it's plain to see why this blip is occuring and where it's going, news or no news. This isn't news driven, it's a step in a set of stairsteps that have been forming really regularly. Put your ruler on the screen on the chart I mentioned above and it points to 1.1950 - 1.2000. Then it will short all the way to 1.170 or 1.165, a nice big juicy money making short if I ever saw one.

Haifa ac 17:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 17:00 // OK. THanks

USA Biscuit Boy 17:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks a nice trade AB but who sold all that yen earlier today and why? Time for japs to invest abroad again??

Minnesota Mark 17:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 16:50 GMT April 27, 2004

Apparently he is done and my post below said he said nothing about the economy or monetary policy, only spoke of energy related babble.

Haifa ac 16:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:56 GMT April 27, 2004
AC, what is that?//
Someone said earlier thaqt Greenspan starts talking Energy (and Viagra) at 16:00 GMT

Va Raven 16:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
AC, what is that?

Rye, NY et 16:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW...

Rye, NY et 14:59 GMT April 21, 2004
Short USD/CAD 1.3572;cut 1.3650;take 1.3350

Gold 398.40 Bid

Add:
Short USD/CAD 1.3530;cut 1.3585;take 1.3350

Haifa ac 16:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
50 minutes and NO ONE KNOWS WHAT HE SAY????

Van jv 16:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
who is buying? New B. or mainly short covering?

hk ab nzd 0.65 16:46 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
last train, short chf/jpy....

USA Biscuit Boy 16:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Looking to buy eur/usd around 1.1880/90. I think we have to expect at least one serious test of 1.1940 (and good odds it breaks IMO).

Va Raven 16:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Then why target 1.1840 only, viies?

Tallinn viies 16:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
good evening guys.
sold euros at 1,1929. stop at 1,1959. target 1,1840.
earlier today stop at 1,1904 was done, sad of course but still think as long as 1,1945/50 contains this move we may see new lows maybe even during this week.
fwiw

USA Biscuit Boy 16:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Maybe we are waiting for question time (if any???) at the end of his speech?

Minnesota Mark 16:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Higher prices appear to be in our future, Greenspan said. After years of benign prices, contracts for delivery of energy goods six years from now have spiked higher, reflecting a new balance between supply and demand.

He made no comments on the current U.S. economy or on monetary policy

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
if I see from 1 minutes chart.. make lower from 1.7914 is good signal.. that's mean give more enetrgy for up.

Haifa ac 16:26 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
25 minutes and NO ONE KNOWS WHAT HE SAY????

USA Biscuit Boy 16:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I would position myself the opposite way to the brokerage houses. Long the USD Index now? Missed the boat by about 3 months I think!!!!!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hey friends.. maybe my opinion can help you.
I predict gbp/usd ready move up from 1.7914.
let'see.

Brisbane L 16:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ny amc I wouldnt like to pick one out, GV Jay may be better at answering that question

ny amc 16:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
brisbane.........regarding that post I was curious as to which big brokerage firms are the better ones when it comes to forex investing. I have friends at most of the big firms thats why i was curious if you knew? thanks

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan "know" with his comment will make weak of usd index . give fuel gbp/usd rocket and burn that... 1.8096 is welcome.

slv sam 16:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
bought e/$ here at 1.1925 target 1.2070 short term.GT

Brisbane L 16:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Bear Stearns Goes Long USD Index...

USA Biscuit Boy 15:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
If eur/usd breaks 1.1940 then aud/usd looks a good buy at these levels.

Houston ST 15:58 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
scaled out of some eur/usd in the 30's ahead of 200 dma; thank you Mr. Market.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Taking profit on long eur/usd position from 1.1845. If we get a kneejerk dip after GS will load up again.

LA SID 15:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Or a few minutes!

GER ad 15:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR?CHF at 1.5458 S/L under 1.5420 T/P 1.5510+ (may take few days)

Oakland Daimyo 15:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw ---Looks like USD bears have the upperhand today. Let's see how long and how far. good call

Slovenia MK 15:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GVI John....
very nice.. hope to see even more valuable researches.. thanks... GL all

TORONTO aviator 15:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GV1 JOHN
New Research feature is excellent. WELL DONE

Normandy Nick 15:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Ok, I'm off now. See you later at 00:00 GMT for the NST

Normandy Nick 15:19 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
the "self-confidence point" for buyers on usd/chf is at 1.2991 bid now, open above this level is a bad sign

HK Kevin 15:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sell small EUR at 1.1920.
QIndex, see you recommend short GBP/JPY in previous post. If so, you also see EUR/JPY down, right?

Normandy Nick 15:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Odessa GM 15:08 GMT April 27, 2004
1.2964 but 1.2957 is the real support. Try a buy at this point , very tight stop, it makes sense

GVI john 15:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY, CHECK OUT THE NEW FREE RESEARCH SECTION ACCESSIBLE ON THE BOTTOM LEFT OF THE GLOBAL-VIEW HOMEPAGE See LINK

Stockholm za 15:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

( EUR/USD - GBP/USD )<------- [ ema 21 ] ----- >

Happy trades .........

Helsinki iw 15:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ The market looks like the short term positions are short EUR/USD and are being squeezed. More to come. IMHO

Odessa GM 15:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick, where are target on CHF? Thanks

Normandy Nick 15:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Odessa GM 15:00 GMT April 27, 2004
Ok, i hope my target would be close to be closed, and I will close it before anyway, that would be to silly to lose my pips when he opens his mouth.

nyc jk 15:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
cool, looking good now for you, cheers.

shanghai bc 15:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Good for you..I am happy for you..

Normandy Nick 15:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:01 GMT April 27, 2004
No, my reverse is at 1.3060 bid...:p

nyc jk 15:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nick did you get stopped out of $/chf on the move above 1.3050 after the number?

Odessa GM 15:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 14:47 GMT April 27, 2004
Greenspan speaks about energy sector & growth on 16.00 GMT

Normandy Nick 14:58 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
a good sign for euro buyers: open the new hour above 1.1906 bid

Odessa GM 14:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Just like this... The FED Inclination more actively to react on growth of economy is visible in history... Besides more frequent all is levitated at once on 50bp

Stockholm za 14:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw ......
EUR/USD Gives weekly value band at 11860/70
GBP/USD Gives weekly value band at 17860/75
so keep watching your candle ....
Happy trades ........

Gen dk 14:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hong kong nt 14:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
BC -- scale out 1/3 property, 35% return in <12 months, thanks for your great vision and insight...

Odessa GM 14:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
16.00 GMT, about energy sector & growth...

Toronto Silverfox 14:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Odessa . So do you mean Usd rates higher
and Eur rates flat?

Normandy Nick 14:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Odessa GM 14:48 GMT April 27, 2004
Ok Thank you

Oakland Daimyo 14:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw --- Only pointing out what I see, I let others decide on what's wisdom or not. GL & GT

Odessa GM 14:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
That Trichet did not speak, a difference between EU and US rates will change in behalf on the second... from history we know... IMHO

Normandy Nick 14:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Odessa GM 14:44 GMT April 27, 2004
Greenspan will say something today? what time? what about? Thanx

USA Biscuit Boy 14:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know if BOJ suspected intervention today?

Helsinki iw 14:46 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, with all due respect, I think you are going with the conventional wisdom there which is always dangerous.

Odessa GM 14:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Remember, today yet the Mr Greenspan:)

hk ab nz 0.65 14:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Daiymo// If dlr/cad doesn't move around much, other majors will follow.....

just a piece.

Odessa GM 14:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I'm going short EUR 1.1940, SL 1.1970 TP 1.1760 Good evening!:)

Oakland Daimyo 14:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Just a warning, not a prediction of turning point.

Oakland Daimyo 14:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Don't be over-anxious. USD buyers not ready to give up the fight. EUR/USD buyers showing divergence between Price and Volume (non-confirmation) and selling pressure is greater than buying pressure in AUD/USD. Several Resistance points overhead for both so we may see further weakness before next major leg higher. Range trade strats remain in focus for time being. GT to all.

Normandy Nick 14:38 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I'll close my short trade on usd/chf at 1.2962 bid or when euro is at 1.1945 . and reverse at 1.3060

Nottingham 14:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
euro...1930/35 1945/50 both zones will give indication as to strength of underlying trend...gl gt

Brisbane L 14:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex hi not still flat Aud any view there thanks.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Herd still selling on rallies so higher eur/usd for the short term.

Van jv 14:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Confidence within exp.ange 85-95; still a good number--but response may reflect consumers dreaming with that high household debt....

Normandy Nick 14:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
about eur/usd, if it manages the upside, 1.1945 bid (always bid) is the next big border.

Melbourne Qindex 14:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that it will try to overcome the upper barrier of my weekly cycle.

hk ab nz 0.65 14:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
and eur 1.1850 -1.1920?

hk ab nz 0.65 14:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
eur and chf are actually played between two big hands now...
the dlr/chf is obvious fight between 1.3 and 1.3060.

Brisbane L 14:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Fed Funds Still See 45% Chance Of June Hike

Normandy Nick 14:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 14:15 GMT April 27, 2004
Praying! how do you know? I just come back from church!
No seriously, I believe Religion divides humanity. Anyway, it's not the point here. My system identify a certain "red line" , 1.3038 bid is the red line, below that point, buyers lose self-confidence, the same way I said yesterday usd/chf was " trapped" to go to 1.3050( and went to that point). Of course, the fox can always puff out a leg to escape, but right now, that's what says Mister Market...GL/GT

Houston ST 14:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
still betting on the eur/usd pair; $ seemed to shake off the positive news for the moment; perhaps $ is overdone at these levels, but it's early in the trading week and as we know anything can/will happen in FX market, usually to inflict the most damage. remember - operators are standing by - to take your money! gl/gt.

Normandy Nick 14:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
below 1.3038 bid actually :p

hk ab nz 0.65 14:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick, seems you are praying for a doji?

HK Kevin 14:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 14:02 GMT, the price movement of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY yesterday made me worried and almost hit my stop. Just covered all EUR/JPY from 128.88 and 130.14. Also took half profit of USD/JPY from 108.78 and 108.43 at 109.69 and put a trailing stop. Possible top for today is 110.20/30. Need to watch NY close for clue.
RIght now, better watch EUR and CAD, prefer sell EUR/$ and long USD/CAD.

Minnesota Mark 14:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
So great currency wizards.. The question is, will these numbers have a strong dollar effect for the next day or so or not??

hk ab nz 0.65 14:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
with some luck, we see martin's .7155?

Normandy Nick 14:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
a good sign that would shows usd/chf is resumming its downtrend would be to open the next hour below 1.3042 bid

Global-View GVI 14:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 14:01 GMT April 27, 2004
Homes +5.7% to 6.48 mln

GVI john 14:00 GMT April 27, 2004
CB 92.9 vs 88.5

Normandy Nick 14:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 14:05 GMT April 27, 2004
Very good, exept for gbp/usd that should have gone to 1.7808 to rebound but rebounded at 1.7818 but that was predictible as euro gave the tune( upside). Otherwise, the other pairs filled their sectors.

sgp sp 14:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab....no way I can make it this sunday....another time perhaps. who knows I may end up in Melbourne when I visit my bro in summer. great lobster sashimi served in Chinatown.

ny amc 14:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
normandy...........how did your native sector theory work today?

ham cla 14:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
CC 92.9, home sales 6.48mln

hk ab nz 0.65 14:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
key for chf today 1.3060....

hk ab nz 0.65 14:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, 110.xx? any confidence?

hk ab nz 0.65 14:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp// bingo.....

Brisbane L 14:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Conference Board Apr Consumer Conf Index 92.9 Vs Mar 88.5

hk ab nz 0.65 14:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
visit of the ultimate top/bottom again....
anyone got data?

nyc fxdh 14:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
consumer confidence was 88.3 median est 88.3
ACTUAL 92.9
Existing home sales were6.12 est 6.2
ACTUAL 6.48

HK Kevin 13:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, it's time to unload my long USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Minnesota Mark 13:58 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hey you guys, yer making me hungry.

hk ab nz 0.65 13:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, did u join our dinner 2 years ago?

Will see what kind of food Q prefers lu...

Edinburgh econoscot. 13:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Pretty bullish report from US ISM, and one which supports recent data. In particular equity positive if revenues and capital spending projections are fulfilled. Capacity use is also projected up some 9% from current levels which is the sting in the tail since 80% has historically been a FED trigger point for rate hikes. Nevertheless costs are projected at the modest end of the scale so there is little in there that is inflationary in the short term.

Melbourne Qindex 13:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:54 GMT - You are right, Lobster and Wine!

HK Kevin 13:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65, Qindex's favourite is lobster and finest wine.

hk ab nz 0.65 13:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Then, sp should try very best to join. ;)

Melbourne Qindex 13:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Shenzen Gong 13:47 GMT - The odds = Chances

Melbourne Qindex 13:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 13:49 GMT - Once every week in exchange for tips.

Melbourne Qindex 13:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 13:48 GMT - Just keep an eye on it. I hope Oil Man would take the short position again.

sgp sp 13:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
:) Dr Q....A Dinner? singular?.....

Melbourne Qindex 13:46 GMT April 27, 2004
hk ab nz 0.65 13:41 GMT - You can then treat me a very very nice dinner.

Melbourne Qindex 13:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 13:47 GMT - I hope so!

NYC TP 13:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Seems the market is on hold awaiting Conf Bd consumer confidence in 12 mins. Forecasts are for 88.0 v. 88.3 in March. March existing home sales are also coming out.

hk ab nz 0.65 13:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
qindex, unfortunately, I am now bounded with some poor position at hands.... hahaha

OK SZ 13:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, thanks for your view..

sgp sp 13:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, appreciate your speedy response. For sure it is gonna take a few days....may I ask whether today's high is also possibly the week's high?

Thanks...

Shenzen Gong 13:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Quindex, what exactly are the odds please?

Melbourne Qindex 13:46 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 13:41 GMT - You can then treat me a very very nice dinner.

Melbourne Qindex 13:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 13:43 GMT - GBP/JPY : Give it a few days.

Melbourne Qindex 13:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 13:36 GMT : EUR/USD : It shoukd be all right in the New York session. It would get support from all its crosses at this moment.

sgp sp 13:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q....u r talking of a v. v. big drop too.

Normandy Nick 13:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:32 GMT April 27, 2004
I respect your view as well of course. We just have different tools but I am sure we both are trying to be as objective as possible. GT/GL

hk ab nz 0.65 13:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, that's talking about a v v. huge profit!

OK SZ 13:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, do you mind giving your view on the euro for this session?

mex sjs 13:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
shorted usdchf here at 1.3033 stop 1.3080 tgt 1.2920-50 area, & longed gbpusd at 1.7880 stop 1.7810 tgt= 1.8200, for a couple of days....think usd has room to fall tothose levels ,let's see if it really goes that way...

SF MRZ 13:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Buying more Eur/$ @ 1.1866, stops a reverse below. Triple bottom for intra day.

Melbourne Qindex 13:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the odds are in favour of taking a short position. The short term target is 191.56.

melbourne farmacia 13:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick - Cheers, Respect your view. i just see support @ fig..

Melbourne Qindex 13:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Shenzen Gong 13:08 GMT : EUR/CHF : the market is going to test the supporting strength of 1.5460.

Melbourne Qindex 10:48 GMT April 27, 2004
Sydney gvm 10:41 GMT -

EUR/CHF : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-

... // 1.5460* - 1.5508 - 1.5556* // ...


The market is running in an normal manner at this moment.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
in my system gbp/usd now have little time..if will move up I think now is the time.

Shenzen Gong 13:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Mr. JP. What do you think the target then is for 1 week Swiss repos are going to be?

hk ab nz 0.65 13:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
May I ask those candle experts a q?
if a pair makes a double outside reversal on 2 consecutive days, would there be any implication? TIA!

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gong 13:08 - buy, with 100 pip sl

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I think afterl 30 minutes from now..ideally gbp/usd move up fast.

Normandy Nick 13:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:59 GMT April 27, 2004
effectively, I did't really watch euro, but this is relative, yesterday, usd/chf gave a sign to get 1.3050, went to that point while euro didn't take off. What is sure then, is that we are in presence of a strong support, so if 1.2990 prints, 1.2950 is likely to be seen by the end of NY session. Euro also showed signs to go further up and has even opened an hour above an important point so I still favor a weaker dollar. GL/GT

Shenzen Gong 13:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have a view EURO/SWISS cross rate?

Vilnius 13:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 13:04 GMT April 27, 2004

most appreciate that.
thank you

hk ab nz 0.65 13:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
good day nk!
it's always nice to see your interesting post.
I remember them well.

nyc jk 13:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius 12:02 GMT April 27, 2004

the BIS conducts a triennial survey of FX market activity globally. It probably doesn't break it down into quite as much detail as you would like, but it is the most comprehensive survey available by far. Their website is bis.org

melbourne farmacia 12:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick - your swissy level needs euro above todays highs 2 short more etc.. ( some people take that dip under fibo line to buy ) GT

Houston ST 12:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf 1.3020 seems a long way from the 1.3500 level, imho.
gl/gt.

Normandy Nick 12:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 12:46 GMT April 27, 2004
usd/chf has shown several times the sign to go to 1.2950, this was the third tentative, so I thought that would be the good one to make a new low but there is still some rebellion. Now I hope it won't make the players to change their mind, I'm short at 1.2997, I squared at 1.3050, stop reverse 1.3060

TORONTO aviator 12:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 12:40 GMT
Please explain your comment, "usd/chf, this time, it's the good one." GL & GT

Many thanks in advance.

Normandy Nick 12:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hum, the next one then... ;p

OK SZ 12:46 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick, time for what?

Normandy Nick 12:40 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf, this time, it's the good one!

SF MRZ 12:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Buying more Eur/$'s, triple top and bottom, could be busy soon.

Livingston nh 12:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Conference Board Consumer Confidence is a "soft" (how do you feel?) statistic - last month (March) the figure was flat despite DoL report of a huge jump in jobs the consumers felt jobs were hard to find - today's report should be weighed down by gasoline prices and Iraq -- if the feeling on jobs does not improve spending plans may also decline

Manchester Daniel 12:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK sz - thank you

sg tpe 12:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi Mr Qindex, are you still seeing euraud to 1.6320-70 this week. thanks


OK SZ 12:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
10am

SA M 12:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Swiss DG 12:16 GMT April 27, 2004
Is it time to short USD/JPY?

no definitely not, let it rise as much as it planned to

Swiss DG 12:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Is it time to short USD/JPY?

Manchester Daniel 12:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
What time(ny time) is US consumer confidence today? Thanks

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Ginta.. Jakarta...dsb.
hello.. Indonesian trader !!

saloniko 2004 nk 12:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

shanghai bc 01:39 GMT April 27, 2004

I agree but rememper that Braves lose their courage too sometimes, and want a quite life too..

hk ab..
I bet that the Bottom of $ sometime would be around 252 GRD..that mean we already saw 265 GRD= 1.2888+..

No position yet but May, may jump again..

Still acummulate courage , and watching market ...

GL

nk



Alicante RTN 12:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Mostly very s/t accounts are long eurusd and a strong consumer confidence reading this afternoon could take out enough stops to lift the USD towards 1.1750 level.

Plenty of others are positoned long usd and could get squeezed if the numbers show any weakness.

Either way, could be an interesting afternoon.

Vilnius 12:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Is there any way to find out the structure of foreign exchange market? I mean how many % of deals can be atributed to investment funds, central banks etc..

Ldn 11:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: US Existing Homes Sales Seen Up In Mar

Brisbane L 11:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
US April consumer confidence to 89.0 from 88.3.BoA economists are expecting above-consensus rise This they say should stall the USD's recent decline as a positive consumer is normally an employed consumer, which bodes well for the next payrolls report. rts.

ham cla 11:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hearing, a hk banks ny branch the main seller in eur/chf.

Plovdiv Gotin 11:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
About euro:1.1752...1.2930=59 days/1.2930...1.1759=49 days?

Plovdiv Gotin 11:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
About euro:1.1752...1.2930=59 days/1.2930...1.1759=49 days?

hk ab nz 0.65 11:40 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hm.. gold is also tanking.

Bkk boun_bough 11:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Praise God for that little trade the other day. Now long here for 1.1925 and then turn it around short for 1.18 Praise God!

hk ab nz 0.65 11:38 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
jf, thanks.

GVI john 11:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1875…$/yen 109.60
DJIA -9 pts… 10-yr 4.43%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE

See Text on GVI


B.A. BOCA 11:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
from cbsmarketwatch.com. for those that think retail investors actually 'move' the market

..About 20 active foreign-exchange dealers and brokerages are registered with the National Futures Association as a Futures Commission Merchant..Some of the firms provide trading platforms for both small-time and institutional investors, and some offer other futures products.

The 20 firms reported a combined $42 million in customer funds at the beginning of 2002 and $225 million by the end of last year, a near 400 percent surge, according to figures provided by Dyekman.



sarasota jf 11:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab- hard to find out now -will find out in the morning - obv something that we are missing

Mla Evan 11:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
This week onwards should be very careful with long Usd positions except Usd/Yen. Better be on the other side.

hk ab nz 0.65 11:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
jf, that jpy move almost looks like an intervention move.

interesting.

hk ab nz 0.65 11:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy is for one.

hk ab nz 0.65 11:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dear all,
aren't we look like preparing an ultimate exhaustive move for USD reversal to south?

Gen dk 11:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Houston ST 11:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hard market to call right now; I've been reading some of my overnight email recommendations from various analysts and for the most part they've been run over with their choice of trades; many of their resistance/support levels have been obliterated by pretty wide margins, so all bets are off for the moment; still looking for eur/usd to hit 1.19xx and maybe beyond, but at the moment its found a wall of sellers; itching to sell usd/jpy but good sense tells me to wait & watch. gl/gt.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW a break of the resistance 1.1900-10 is a bullish signal for intraday position. The whipsaw today has shaken a lot of stops along the way. The only fear I have initially with this long position would be that the intraday indicators are in O/B territory IMHO. GL GT

Houston ST 11:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
good day all; still holding eur/usd; watching the price action for the moment on various crosses; interesting start to the day. good trades.

shanghai & Q, if your are around your thoughts please. tia.

Brisbane L 11:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Global-View excellent

QC WC 11:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
G-V, you've left out Melbourne Qindex. :=)

Gen dk 11:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View 11:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Please take a look at our new Research Section, which will be expanded over time. A link can also be found udner GVI on our right sidebar and note the link to return to the Forex Forum at the top of the headline page. To access this new area, CLICK HERE

Melbourne Qindex 10:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : I guess it is waiting EUR/GBP to move higher to 0.6682.

Jubail Gamber 10:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
thank u for the reply. I'm intrested in Eur$ and gbp$. I sent email to Jay.

hk ab nz 0.65 10:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
martin// insists on .7155 target?

Sydney gvm 10:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q - forever the gardener huh !?

B.A. BOCA 10:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
held again....

B.A. BOCA 08:55 GMT April 27, 2004
fwiw...after the break lower last week the euro has been capped nicely by the 200ma on the hourly charts. now positioned around 1,1905....

Melbourne Qindex 10:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 10:49 GMT - We need the rain in Melbourne.

Sydney gvm 10:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Qindex - hope the weather is better in HK than what I have heard its been like in Melbourne of late !

Melbourne Qindex 10:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 10:41 GMT -

EUR/CHF : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-

... // 1.5460* - 1.5508 - 1.5556* // ...


The market is running in an normal manner at this moment.

Gen dk 10:48 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 10:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Jubail Gamber 10:15 GMT - Which pair of currency are you familiar?

Let me use EUR/JPY

Melbourne Qindex 03:34 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/JPY : The key quantized level of my 5-day charts is positioning at 131.65. A projected supporting level is located at 128.39 - 128.58 and a projected resistant level is expected at 129.32 - 129.62. The congested area of my 5-day cycle is projected at 128.58 - 131.19. The odds are in favour of taking long position.


... 127.92* // 128.39 - 128.85* - 129.32 - 129.77* - 130.26 - 130.72* - 131.19 - 131.65* // ...


EUR/JPY : The low and high is around 128.45 and 129.95 respectively. In general this is in agreement with our projection in support/resistant level (A projected supporting level is located at 128.39 - 128.58 and a projected resistant level is expected at 129.32 - 129.62).

Send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see my page for free in the next 2 weeks.

Sydney gvm 10:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q : Any comment however general on EURCHF much appreciated - FYG I am short and wondering whether the current move is anything important? TIA

hk ab nz 0.65 10:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I wonder if dlr/chf can make a double key-reversal today......
Pic. will be v. interesting.

Melbourne Qindex 10:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 10:10 GMT - Thank you.

nyc fxdh 10:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
long $/cad here...any thoughts

hk ab nz 0.65 10:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
how's c9 doing today?

Normandy Nick 10:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf gave the sign to go to 1.2955/60

hk ab nz 0.65 10:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nt, the majors could not bring the commodities with them.

hong kong nt 10:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
AB -- USD/CHF fails to break 60, exit long...

Rome Tony 10:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
What's going on with Eur/jpy and where wil it go , anyone please tell ??

Sydney MM 10:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP seems to be trading sideways b4 US consumer confidence no. Expect break to the upside thereafter with initial target of 1.8010.Any thoughts?

Normandy Nick 10:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hello friends, I was watching my charts when I fell asleep like a big mussel! 00:00 gmt is 2:00 Am at my computer.I don't know if there is still people from the opening. The native sectors theory has completly worked again exept for gbp that didn't touch its bottom native line but that was predictible since euro touched its and then gave the tune (the first that touches its line "wins" the game). Reactions and rebounds appeared where exept for euro that has had to let some territory to allow usd/chf to touch its upper native line.
For now, the best strike to do is short usd/chf if and only if it prints 1.2995 bid

hk ab nz 0.65 10:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
these jap visitors always like to come in unexpectedly. Can almost through away all kinds of TA 'cos they are not following TA but their minds at all.

GL.

Any view on this dlr/jpy run?
seems we hit the 109.30 wall again.

Jubail Gamber 10:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
can u help me in understanding ur posts? how can I benefit from the numbers u put.

Brisbane L 10:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
14.00GMT US Apr Consumer Confidence: market expecting lucky 88.0
:-)

sarasota jf 10:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab - dr q stirred up hornets nest but we still only back to where we started couple days ago 130 -

IST Sez 10:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Absouletly yes Q WC,
He is the best of G-W forum.

Jubail Gamber 10:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi all. Salam S
r u from Jubail?

Gen dk 10:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

QC WC 10:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, you've done it again. Great trades!

hk ab nz 0.65 10:09 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
any news trigger?

hk ab nz 0.65 10:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
jf, looks like someone decide to move the yen crosses around.

When do those exporters usually come in?

Brisbane L 09:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
BarCap wary of chasing Chf higher ,given bank's forecast below-consensus KoF indicator Wed 0.50 vs median 0.57 they see risk rate expectations by SNB rates could be unwound, leaving CHF exposed to sharp drop

hk ab nz 0.65 09:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nk, are u in any position?

Gen dk 09:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ham cla 09:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF: same german name still selling here at current lvls.

ham cla 09:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trichet says he sxpects inflation to edge up over the coming months due to higher energy costs and tax, and that will partly be balanced by euro stregth damping commodity prices.

B.A. BOCA 08:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...after the break lower last week the euro has been capped nicely by the 200ma on the hourly charts. now positioned around 1,1905....

Brisbane L 08:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
German politicians Peter Bofinger the wise man, ,says that the ECB has room to cut interest rates. Bofinger
talking earlier today on German radio

PAR 08:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Eichel and other German politicians are so obsessed with lower interest rates that they completely forget that monetary policy is just one facet of economic policy.To get Europ growing you need another economic policy in Germany like Blair did in the UK. High interest rates to encourage savings and to attract capital, deregulation to stimulate the economy and job creation, and low taxes to increase consumer spending. And an independent ECB despite Eichels plans for the contrary.

Brisbane L 08:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro 1.1750 exotic option barriers to roll off today's NY cut
14:00gmt, also large 1.1900, 1.1815 and 1.1800
plain-vanilla strikes.

Jubail S 08:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAd I think there's a chance for longing that pair

ham cla 08:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF: big german is selling at 1.5489/92.

Melbourne Qindex 08:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Supporting range 1.1866 - 1.1871.

Newcastle GH 08:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb

Still reports of offers around the 45/50 level

Brisbane L 08:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ECB: Euro Zone Growth In Past Few Years 'Disappointing"

Melbourne Qindex 08:34 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:34 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.1762* - 1.1786 // 1.1809 - 1.1833 - 1.1856* - 1.1880 - 1.1903 - 1.1925 - 1.1950* - 1.1974 // 1.1997 ... 1.2044* ...

vancouver jpb 08:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Its beinning to look like the cable is running out of steam.

The 15 minute RSI has it overbought.

I think I'll wait for the next pop and get into a couple stacked sells.

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 08:17 GMT - EUR/JPY : it is good enough in my system if the market can trade above 128.95 at GMT 20.00

GA TJ 08:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, I agree with you I thought this move would have played out a little better. Got Stops set so that worst case is I lose a few PIPs on combined Cable and Swissy trade. Not looking good at all right now. But who knows what the next few minutes will bring

sarasota jf 08:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
dr q- 1.20 n 130 will be true tests indeed if we can make it prior to the numbers this week

ICT ML 08:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn HAT....I am doing well lately thanks....I playing a little long against you today ....just trying to see if this is real strenght or not...but still plan to buy at 1.7350 in the near future :-)

so far today I am not impressed with this attempted move up.

Melbourne Qindex 08:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 08:08 GMT - EUR/JPY : I agree that it is too early to say that we will see 131.60 within the next 5-day trading days. However once the market is able to trade above 130, the whole pictiure will change.

Brisbane L 08:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
China Tells U.S., U.K. To Mind Own Business Over HK Row

vancouver jpb 08:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I do hate when Gspan speaks...

Cause 2 things come about:

1. A lengthy boring speach (in his upbeat monatone garbol)

2. A short term screwball market.

Brisbane L 08:09 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
plan to buy Aud 73 if seen, even better 7280

Ldn Hat 08:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Market is trying to test my stop at 1.7950 removed the stop and will set stop at 1.8050 I am still of the opinion that GBP/USD is down but this correction is more than welcome for a further move down IMHO.

ML. How are you mate? Looks like I went Short too early ;-)

sarasota jf 08:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:01 GMT April 27, 2004
re euryen
last week i thght we wud see 131.60 however the japanese exporters seem determined to keep selling this cross in amazing size - the resolute buy nature of recent times is failing and even i now objectively say this market is going sideways the momentum has stalled - gl

Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The odds are good that we have seen the daily low in Asian Session.


Melbourne Qindex 02:02 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : My daily cycle charts indicate that the market is vibrating around the quantized level at 0.6647 with an expected magnitude of +/- 10 pips for the time being. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.6595 // 0.6612. The upper barrier is expected at 0.6683 // 0.6700. The odds are in favour of buy on dips. Use the monthly cycle charts for reference if the market can trade above 0.6700.


... 0.6595 // 0.6612 - 0.6630 - 0.6647 - 0.6665 - 0.6683 // 0.6700 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:24 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that a projected supporting level is positioning at 0.6596 - 0.6616. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 0.6682 - 0.6692.

Melbourne Qindex 01:20 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : 5-Day Cuycle Quantised Levels (26/04)


... 0.6549* // 0.6596 - 0.6644* - 0.6692 // 0.6739* ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : The following two curves from my monthly cycle are governing the movement of the market for the time being. The key quantized level is positioning at 0.6692

Set A : 0.6598* - 0.6630 - 0.6661* - 0.6692 - 0.6724*

Set B : 0.6645* - 0.6692 - 0.6740*

Melbourne Qindex 08:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:41 GMT April 27, 2004
USD/CHF : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2939 - 1.3220 and the mid-point reference is 1.3080.The upper barrier is positioning at 1.3098 // 1.3136 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2911 // 1.2948. The odds are in favour of taking short position on rallies.


... 1.2911 // 1.2948 - 1.2986 - 1.3023 - 1.3061 - 1.3098 // 1.3136 - 1.3136 ...

Melbourne Qindex 08:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:34 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/JPY : The key quantized level of my 5-day charts is positioning at 131.65. A projected supporting level is located at 128.39 - 128.58 and a projected resistant level is expected at 129.32 - 129.62. the congested area of my 5-day cycle is projected at 128.58 - 131.19. The odds are in favour of taking long position.


... 127.92* // 128.39 - 128.85* - 129.32 - 129.77* - 130.26 - 130.72* - 131.19 - 131.65* // ...

Helsinki iw 07:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ The dollar is looking soft against a few pairs this mor-
ning and may have some downside left. EUR/USD has next
resistance at 1,1955/65 which could be tested nad if broken
would turn the outlook more bullish. The dollar is also about
to make 4hourly key reversala down against both euro and
swissy, and oftentimes these reversals work quite well, so
personally trading with negative bias towards the USD for the
time being. IMHO.

shanghai bc 07:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

This move may take Eur/usd to 1.20+ and start another gentle Euro accumulation game over again..

ICT ML 07:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Ham cla....any thing on cable at your desk? offers at 50 maybe?

and thanks much, do appreciate your flow info in a big way.

ham cla 07:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
while apperently ny name on the bid here.

ICT ML 07:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ...not on my life...haha I no buy into hourly and 4 hr EMA50/200 resistence....LOL

melbourne farmacia 07:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 07:29 GMT April 27, 2004
1.7955 should be printed IMO gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the info CLA. GT

ham cla 07:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
good mng! hearing also uk clearer on the offer 1.1899/02.

GA TJ 07:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML it would be nice if you started buying it and push it thru that level. Can you do that for me. Please.......

ICT ML 07:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
eur-usd trying real hard to break out of my swing resistance on 60 min and 4 hr. Thinkin' it has a 80% chance to get through this time.

GA TJ 07:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
And for a little Sadist action just took the Swissy Short 1.3010. Pain is good. Pain builds character. LOL

Move stop on Cable to 1.7890 to lock in a few PIPS

vancouver jpb 07:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Once again th cable pushes through another resistance barrier.

Next Stop could be 1.7950.

The tricky part now, is timing a sell.

GL GT

ICT ML 07:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
and, if this is a mini trend here..1.7900 will need to hold dips.

GA TJ 07:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Opps, forgot. stop has been placed at B/E on Cable. Will take the Swissy Short at 1.3009

ICT ML 07:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ...calculated a 1.8065 target on the long cable trade...flag pole target.

GA TJ 07:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, Long Cable at 1.7867. Getting a little concerned that there is no follow thru yet. Computer has been singing for the past few minutes. Issued Buy on Euro, Aussie, Kiwi, Sell on Swissy. Looks like s Buy on EURJPY is next signal

SPb Mike 07:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
preague mark 07:05

Energy Center of Strategic and International Studies Conference on U.S. - Saudi Relations and Global Energy , Washington, D.C.

hong kong nt 07:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
We may see the low of USD/CHF at 1.301 for today...

ICT ML 07:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
got a 1.1925 level being pointed to by about 6 different short term trend lines...so think that is my sell level if I sell it today.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 06:58 GMT April 27, 2004
I agree this whipsaw movement is shaking the weaker positions out. The next fibo is around 1.1910-20 and 1.1950-60. This resistance around 1.1900-10 will be tough IMHO.

preague mark 07:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
US Mr GREENSPAN speech 16.00 GMT

what this old man wants to say again? - pls. elect Mr Bush or else? - TIA

Brisbane L 06:58 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD o/n short positions squeezed out pair pushes up to 1.1872 from 1.1840, res 1.1910

MONACO OGA 06:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 27/04
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1850), 50 pips higher than Monday's opening. The pair recovered from an new low (1,1760 not seen since Nov 2003) and reached 1,1880 on a higher german IFO, with the market fading the post G7 USD strenght. As noted earlier, 1,1900-30 should offer enough resistance again. A long term chart shows that we are approaching the 1,16-1,18 zone where lots of exchange took place in June 2003 and Nov 2003, logically this level should be tough to break. Support levels today : 1,1830 then 1,1790. Resistance kicking around 1,1890 then a stronger one at 1,1900-30. Overall we are still neutral on the medium term.

Data out today:
EURozone current account Feb expected 2,5B 08.00 GMT
EURozone Mr TRICHET's speech at the european parliament
US consumer confidence April expected 88.5 14.00 GMT
US existing home sales Mar expected 6.2M 14.00 GMT
US Mr GREENSPAN speech 16.00 GMT

Gold at 398.00, with WTI June at 36.95

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 108,55) retracing from 109,30 on continuing exporter offers (SONY and HONDA assuming a rate of 105 for 2004/5 in their earnings reports). Next big level to watch is 107.80-00.
EUR/JPY (currently 128,80) very stable. Next support around 128,00.and offers at 129,50 short term.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7870) broke1,7800 resitance and moving to next level 1,78-1,81 on the back of positive GBP declaration from Mr TUCKER. Nevertheless, a big hurddle appears ahead of 1,7900. Support at 1,78 then above 1.76. On the upside shows 1,7900.
EURGBP (0,6640) hovering inside 0,6620-50.. We'll play the range and remain neutral on the cross as long as 0,6610 or 0,6750 have not been printed.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

GA TJ 06:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, if you are still around my system just flashed a Buy for Cable at 1.7867. In the range that I thought it would. Now the question is to Front run a break or wait for the break. Or this one could go down in the Loss Column.

hk ab nz 0.65 06:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 05:56 GMT April 27, 2004

Thanks. But you know it's the human mentality always easily distract people towards those "crap".
I still have a lot to learn from you, bc and qindex.

GT!

"8", what a nice number in Chinese.

Brisbane L 06:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
WELLINGTON (AP)--New Zealand hospitals and doctors were warned Tuesday to be on alert for possible cases of SARS following new infections in China, a senior health ministry official said Tuesday.

slv sam 06:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 19:26 GMT April 26, 2004
Buy $/cad here at 1.3480/85 target 1.39+ stop 1.3280.GT

I am expecting good movement on this pair first week of May!GT

van Gecko 06:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro has satisfied m/t price time equality objectives with its 20 pip grind under last week's low..
as for the proxy twin, levels above usd/chf 1.31 are exhaustive & not sustainable without a liquidity dive down to the 1.28's..
the near term odds are with Q & dollar selling Sons Of Beatrices..fwiw..
cheerios..

prague viktor 06:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Oilman:good morning we must take care from the Iraqi syndrom,and the aim of the usa adminstration to have a low usd,there is a lot of euro bayres on the level 1,15-1,17 ...G/L G/T

. . 06:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GV

Can you take off india bum posting please.
Thanks yo.

06:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
how dumb! indian bum

india bum 06:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hi




































































thx

Ldn Hat 06:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.7875 stop 1.7950 target 1.7750 and lower IMHO Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my current 5-day cycle is positioning at 1.1866. The critical point is located at 1.1803. Therefore it is reasonable to see a consolidation of the market within this range 1.1803 - 1.1866. The mid-point reference is 1.1835. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1803 - 1.1992. The odds are in favour of taking a long position.

... 1.1740* - 1.1772 // 1.1803* - 1.1835 - 1.1866* - 1.1898 - 1.1929* - 1.1961 - 1.1992* // 1.2024 - 1.2055* ...

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
seen gbp/usd will run to catch 1.8096. IMO
better buy

Brisbane L 06:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Higher Euro from session in New York,said not to impress Tokyo traders giving them the opportunity to reap gains by selling on the rally. With some long-term fund managers reduced long euro/dollar positions on the view that U.S. official rates will start rising in coming months, traders said, also weakening against the yen, capped by offers from Japanese exporters, traders said. bearish Euro sentiment is said to continue dominateing the market with traders focused on the brightening outlook for the U.S. economy and U.S. interest rate hikes.
rts.












UAE Oil man 05:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Well Ab, Value or not(and one has to remember value changes..)..a way to catch a trend is to follow it...which it all simplicity means a trend is a trend only when it s going under way...a trend gets juicy only after 3/8 of it's move is ALREADY done..(panic on the other side of the trend)....offcourse it doesnt have to be 3/8(if you start sticking to definite number you'll end up like ellioters and say market ALWAYS MOVE in 5 waves,with wave c not below wave b and that kind of total crap,which might work sometimes..but far from truth...in anycase a trend is not juicy as it starts..it needs to pick up speed..)....people need to pick up the trend and follow it ...that's when the largest move is done..and the last 1/8 is always the biggest part and swiftest part of the trend...(also a big sign of reversal coming...doesn't have to be 1/8..just a "nice" number..but you get the idea)

ks snk 05:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp, where are you ???

sgp sp 05:54 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab, done......

ks snk 05:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab//hk ab nz 0.65 05:38 GMT April 27, 2004
sp// if u don't mind, could you please send me the url of Byron's site thru email to me?

here is:
fxtradercenter dot com

hk jn 05:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab, remembered FTC? or whatchee in very hot mail, jimmy

HK Byron 05:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ab, it's fxtradercenter

Ldn Hat 05:50 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dailies suggesting down move iminent IMHO therefore shorted GBP/USD at 1.7860 stop at 1.7950 target 1.7750 initially Thanks

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 05:45 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
hello friends.
my TA say eur/usd will up to get 1.2005 and first station at 1.1930

hk ab nz 0.65 05:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Today special, eur limit 1.1775, 1.1750 1.1700.
and eur/gbp limit .6555.

hk ab nz 0.65 05:38 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp// if u don't mind, could you please send me the url of Byron's site thru email to me?

hk ab nz 0.65 05:38 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp// if u don't mind, could you please send me the url of Byron's site thru email to me?

Los Angeles kmv 05:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Any one have a idea how the Eur/Usd pair will react to the Consumer Confidence report tmrw am?

sgp sp 05:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q....it is not the cost rather the constraints on time (personal reasons).....that is preventing me from flying up.....
another time then......hope u have a great time in HK...:)

Melbourne Qindex 05:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 05:07 GMT - Thank you for your invitation. It is going to be very early in the morning, 5am. Take a trip to Hong Kong! There is a promotion going on, a return ticket from Hong Kong to Singapore is around US100.

sgp sp 05:07 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q....in transit in Singapore Airport for a few hours? That is nice.....if u like to, we can have lunch during ur transit but that would mean clearing custom and immigration and vv for u.... let me know :)

Brisbane L 04:44 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Think this is a very bearish view from Citigroup technical analysts -EUR/USD's long-term outlook would shift to bearish from neutral if pair closes below 1.1780-1.1800 area on weekly basis in this scenario, EUR/USD would likely enter medium-term downtrend target then 1.0760, with major support 1.1376. area.

hk ab nz 0.65 04:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks very much bc.

Sydney alimin 04:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
bought eur/usd 1.1835...will see where this one takes me
g/l g/t all
off to lunch now

shanghai bc 04:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   


AB -- Sorry..I should have said "I do not see any value in shorting anything below Eur/usd 1.20 some months down the road..I would rather buy and buy a lot anything below 1.20..

hk ab nz 0.65 04:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
today eur/jpy is still weak.
maybe allow some room b4 buying the pair up later.

hk ab nz 0.65 04:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp// if aud/nzd tomorrow shoots to 1.18, I will have no hesitation to shoot down the pair. big time

hk ab nz 0.65 04:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
from the recent month movement, it looks like jap has repatriated a lot back to the Nekkei.

hk ab nz 0.65 04:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
But I still do not see any value for anything below Eur/usd 1.20 for months down the road..


bc// you meant?... thanks.

sp// but Fred is not bad eh? still in green.

for the chf... .hm..... need to watch carefully now 'cos it made outside day when we were sleeping last night.

Melbourne Qindex 04:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 03:56 GMT - You are welcome. I am going to Hong Kong on Sunday morning, will stop over in Singapore airport for a few hours.

sgp sp 03:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, removed the gbp/usd order b4 I went to bed....just holding a usd/chf long at the moment......using Dr Q's levels as guide.....GT

Morning Dr Q.....thanks for ur levels....when r u going back to HK? pity I cannot join u ppl for a get together.

shanghai bc 03:56 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Have not met many good-sized Euro buyers since 1.20..Market always overshoots even during corrections,so,Usd/Chf 1.35+ may be a good possibility....But I still do not see any value for anything below Eur/usd 1.20 for months down the road..

LTN th 03:52 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
All yen daily charts seem very suggestive.

BC// Have you watched any of these reality TV shows of late where participants, for example, play the roles of the of the masters and servants in a stately house. And then half way through they swap roles?

hk ab nz 0.65 03:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
bc//from your previous message, do u mean that we still have some continuous bounce of this USD till chf meet 1.35? TIA.

Your eur 200 pips/100 pips helps a lot, Thanks.

USA Biscuit Boy 03:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur/usd 1.1845

Montréal Taro 03:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe
Do you have the bands for cable ? And can you give me some indication on how you use them exactly ...

shanghai bc 03:40 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

NYCx3 -- Japan without US is a butler without a master..

Melbourne Qindex 03:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:34 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/JPY : The key quantized level of my 5-day charts is positioning at 131.65. A projected supporting level is located at 128.39 - 128.58 and a projected resistant level is expected at 129.32 - 129.62. the congested area of my 5-day cycle is projected at 128.58 - 131.19. The odds are in favour of taking long position.


... 127.92* // 128.39 - 128.85* - 129.32 - 129.77* - 130.26 - 130.72* - 131.19 - 131.65* // ...

NYCNYCNYC 03:25 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Long term if anyone might comment, is there a chance japan stops supporting the US in Iraq ?

what is Japan without the US ?

GA TJ 03:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 03:11 GMT April 27, 2004

I think that can be accomplished. Shoot me an email when you are ready.


EURJPY trade looks like it will be Stopped at B/E

NYC YIPPEE 03:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Selling GBPJPY at 193.60 Stop 194.30 target 190.00.

ICT ML 03:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ...yes I have, have you found a way to make an alert on a velocity of change?...say an alert if a 30 min %R50 moves more than 30 pts or so in a 30 min bar...etc.....?

Trying to define my "system" is an elusive task....haha but think I can break it into the different tactics that can be made into alerts....

GA TJ 02:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EURJPY: Stop at B/E

ML have you given any more thought on what I owe you?

ICT ML 02:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
SZ....doing very well YTD again...I make $$$$ hand over fist in flurries....but keeping it sometimes is another story ;->

anyway, was short in asia last night, refused to take my 20-30 pip profits, and ended up SARing cable after a 60 pip loss and euro after a 20 pip loss...but didn't have any conviction in the longs, and bailed at B/E on them the first sign they pulled back.....and they proceeded to head much higher...such is trading.

hope you are all doing well

GA TJ 02:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 02:39 GMT April 27, 2004
I might be front running a new high (if made) on Cable. It looks like the system, currently flat, should issue another Buy in the 60-75 area.

Big Apple 02:43 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
I always contribute money to soros!

nyc jk 02:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ - I do some system based trading and some discretionary.

OK SZ 02:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, thanks for your post and hope your doing well..take care

Melbourne Qindex 02:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:41 GMT April 27, 2004
USD/CHF : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2939 - 1.3220 and the mid-poit reference is 1.3080.The upper barrier is positioning at 1.3098 // 1.3136 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2911 // 1.2948. The odds are in favour of taking short position on rallies.


... 1.2911 // 1.2948 - 1.2986 - 1.3023 - 1.3061 - 1.3098 // 1.3136 - 1.3136 ...

OK SZ 02:40 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
yes me too:)

ICT ML 02:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
well guys, cable is trying its best to make a move up here. Key in my mind will be if 1.7810-15 supports these next sessions or not. In my bag o' tricks, it has broken out to the upside of its last move down from 1.8600 area, and is going to test its supporting strenghth there. It has been in a predictable pattern though, retracing 50% of each leg, which it did at 1.7900 today. So buy a new high and follow the minitrend if it holds, or sell a break below 1.7800 are the best R/R trades on it I think.

The eur-usd, it is not establishing a mini trend up yet. it has't broken above my bag o' tricks resistance, but is instead trading in a falling wedge. I think after the next new low in the coming sessions it could be a buy for a good run of a couple hundred pips. Could be all wet on it though....never know

USA Biscuit Boy 02:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
No I just pick up bits and peices from all the battle hardened traders on this forum.

OK SZ 02:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy, thanks for that info..we keep an eye on it..are you using his service by the way?

USA Biscuit Boy 02:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sorry make that last 1.1810

USA Biscuit Boy 02:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q's levels are usually very accurate.....1.1833 then 1.1807.

OK SZ 02:34 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy, yes I agree with you..at what level is the question..I have a support at 1.1820/1.1810...maybe we test 118 again

LAX-LGB SNP 02:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
considering bidding eurjpy @ 128.72 as we speak but wondering if mkt can take out 129.25-129.53

so far gbpjpy is above last week's 193.92-193.40 zone but barely

OK SZ 02:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Lee, that was the wrong word..anyway it usually trends better in either direction..now it's getting there but guess it took a bit of time..oh well..that is what I get for not trading this session much..gl, gt...will place a buy at 118

USA Biscuit Boy 02:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
SZ a bit slower than usual. Hopefully buyers for euro will appear a tad lower, well I will be one anyway :)

Porto PJT 02:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 02:21 GMT , hourly close below 1 h trendline around 68 is a sell to me too.
simple system too , trendlines, + macd confirmation, rsi in agree, etc......

Ga Lee 02:30 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 02:23 GMT April 27, 2004
Unsettling in which way, sz...tia...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
First fibo (1.1840-35) for eur/usd should hold the show a bit but under that it is a sell intraday signal IMHO.

hk ab nz 0.65 02:26 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
sp// have u entered the gbp?
After I read the 4hr chart and the daily. I think it's better to be sidelined on this or take some small profits to run first if you can.

OK SZ 02:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
is this asian session a bit weird this evening? I usually don't trade it but have noticed this evening a bit unsettling? or is it just me?

GA TJ 02:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Speaking off Systems mine just flashed a Sell on EURJPY @ 128.77

OK SZ 02:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ, can you describe what your system is? mine is simple trade off support/resistance and go with the trend..doing well so far

GA TJ 02:13 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Interesting discussion on "Herd Mentality", Big Fish, R/R.......
But I was curious as to how many traders on this forum trade strictly off of Mechanical Systems. If so what can of success. I have just started doing so and my numbers have improved.

shanghai bc 02:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

AMC -- System is a weapon of a soldier in this market..You must have one as soon as possible..Otherwise,it will be like fighting well-armed forex robbers with a handbag..Best one is a self-made one because you can never feel comfy in borrowed shoes although borrowing good ideas from others is a good idea..Goood luck..

nyc jk 02:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
amc - I think you will find people use "system" to refer to both, however I use it in the context of a fixed set of rules to trade. For example, a fairly well known "system" is the Turtle trend following approach, which specifies entry and exit rules, position sizing rules, trailing s/l rules, etc.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 02:02 GMT April 27, 2004
When I talk about system is the style of trading the entry, and exit what ever initiates and ends your trading that is a system. I hope that helps.

USA Biscuit Boy 02:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Still waiting around for 1.1835 to buy eur/usd again.

Melbourne Qindex 02:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:02 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : My daily cycle charts indicate that the market is vibrating around the quantized level at 0.6647 with an expected magnitude of +/- 10 pips for the time being. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.6595 // 0.6612. The upper barrier is expected at 0.6683 // 0.6700. The odds are in favour of buy on dips. Use the monthly cycle charts for reference if the market can trade above 0.6700.


... 0.6595 // 0.6612 - 0.6630 - 0.6647 - 0.6665 - 0.6683 // 0.6700 ...

ny amc 02:02 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
i hope you guys dont mind a stupid question but here goes...when you guys use the term "system " for trading do you mean there are actual systems i can find and learn about or do you mean your own personal system/style ? Thanks for all your help guys it is very helpful

nyc jk 01:59 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
very true and well said OMIL.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:55 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
JK, I always say R/R is one of the most important if not the most important in any system no matter how good the system is because in the end the R/R will come back to haunt you or save your hide. I believe also that many systems can work with good R/R applied. The main thing is to feel comfortable with the system when you use it day in and day out IMHO. GT

Sedona AZ 01:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 01:33

Where is Eastaway these days?

nyc jk 01:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
well I still disagree Martin, it is NOT a common denominator, that is exactly what I am saying. A systematic trend following approach is by nature "following the herd". As for a higher loss ratio, that is not necessarily a bad thing, and not the most important thing. Take systematic trend following as a stategic example. Many of the systems I have seen (and personally worked with) lose money on over half of the trades they make, however they are profitable systems because they make much more on the winning trades than they lose on the losing trades. They cut losers early and let winners ride. So what is more important is the magnitude of your winners vs the magnitude of your losers, not necessarily the frequency of winners vs losers. You want to have a system that has a positive expected value per trade. Some systems that make money on the majority of trades lose money overall.

Stockholm za 01:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Martin ... Then you will have to explain " flow "


..."if you go with the flow you will have a higher loss ratio"..

Because i went with the flow from november - jan

Gold Coast martin 01:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI..bc...thank you ..you have put the whole matter into perspective....g/ g/t

OK SZ 01:41 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
that level also will be a triple top I believe...I have orders there to sell..

shanghai bc 01:39 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

One cannot make a dime unless follow the herd or trend most of the time..It is just that one has to be cautious when overbought/oversold region is approaching and know how to turn at inflection point for the opposite trend..Following herd needs average intelligence and courage but identifying inflection points and taking a neccesarry action needs not only intelligence but also a lot of courage..Again,fortune favours the brave..

ny amc 01:38 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
there is talk of an asian central bank with a large eur/usd sell order at 1.1885 that is believed to be option related

OK SZ 01:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
thank you

Gen dk 01:37 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane L 01:35 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Australian 1Q Final PPI +0.6% Vs 4Q, +0.9% On Yr

OK SZ 01:34 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
that is between the h/l on the euro...1.1868 high..1.1851 low

Gold Coast martin 01:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
NYC..jk...i have never said that these trading systems trade on the contrarian system...it is a common denominator that they all have....the key is the entry/exit level of these trading systems...when to enter and when to exit......you can read as many books as you can written by every forex guru in the world...what they dont tell you is when to enter and when to exit as this entirely depends on the market at each given time...depends where the money is been parked by the herd....i always enjoy your views and lively debate....g/l g/t...just to keep it simple...."if you go with the flow you will have a higher loss ratio"..

Sydney 01:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Yeah we at National Australia Bank FX desk used one of those trading systems.... it was fantastic until October 2003. Going against the trend etc.. It was hard telling the boss about being 350 million in the red, But Gota nice big payout that December. Good trading guys.

Singapore Sfx 01:33 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
SZ - 0.6%

OK SZ 01:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, thanks for posting ur bands..17 pip spread on the euro so far...weird night so far..gl,gt

OK SZ 01:31 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone have the aus ppi?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.1877 1.1891 1.1908 1.1922 1.1936 1.1953 1.1981
LOWER BANDS 1.1849 1.1835 1.1817 1.1803 1.1789 1.1772 1.1744

Singapore Sfx 01:29 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Agree with jk 01:21 -

Martin, what makes a trend ?

Stockholm za 01:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

WE always try to defie the laws of nature..
Soon i will hear that 1+1 = 3
GL/GT To you all.......

Normandy Nick 01:27 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 01:22 GMT April 27, 2004
the round is not won yet! for eur/usd the top is at 1.1897 actually and not1.1905. Then it could go further up or reverse, I just expect a reaction at this level.

Melbourne Qindex 01:24 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:24 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that a projected supporting level is positioning at 0.6596 - 0.6616. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 0.6682 - 0.6692.

Ga Lee 01:23 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:15 GMT April 27, 2004
Indeed he is.Here from darn near day one on this forum..

KL KL 01:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 01:17 GMT April 27, 2004 , Looks like it is working...what are your view of the tops before reversing down again in view of data out tonight...thanks

nyc jk 01:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:00 GMT April 27, 2004
.....someone in this forum mentioned the "herd mentality"...these systems capture the heard mentality and trade against it...i think i said enough.....

rubbish Martin. Ever hear of JW Henry? Campbell & Company? Crabell? Many of the largest CTA's follow a mechanized, trendfollowing approach. Even some of the large well known hedge funds follow trends to a large extent, for example Soros. Ever read the Alchemy of Finance where big George talks about currencies moving in large multiyear waves? To say that all the big funds use only 3 or 4 systems is just wrong. To say that they all trade a contrarian approach is also wrong.

Normandy Nick 01:17 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:14 GMT April 27, 2004
very interesting....

Gold Coast martin 01:15 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
BRISBANE L...yes,athens is a well respected trader based on what i have seen from his posts...

Gold Coast martin 01:14 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
NY amc....all these big fish rely on the same fundamentals as evereone else does in this forum,and use the same technicals as every other experienced trader in this forum consistently....The key to it is they enter the market when the herd has revealed their hand....this way consestantly they have more wins than losses...good trades to all...

Brisbane L 01:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin similar to Athens , one of the Best

ny amc 01:08 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
gold coast................being a contrarian trader was how i traded stocks when i was a broker for 10 years...........i wasnt sure if you could use that same metality towards fx....i will give it a shot....thanks

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT April 27, 2004
EUR/GBP : The following two curves from my monthly cycle are governing the movement of the market for the time being. The key quantized level is positioning at 0.6692

Set A : 0.6598* - 0.6630 - 0.6661* - 0.6692 - 0.6724*

Set B : 0.6645* - 0.6692 - 0.6740*

Normandy Nick 01:05 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 00:49 GMT April 27, 2004
Thanx martin , I've always had the feeling big fishes always use the same stratagem but I'm glad you confirm it.

Gold Coast martin 01:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
NY AMC...sorry friend but i have a confidentiality clause that i have hanging around my neck for the rest of my natural born life...love to tell but cannot....my advice to you is to absorb as much technical info as you can so that you can understand fundamentals and listen to advice from experienced traders in this and any other forex forum....i can just say to you that the 3 or 4 of these trading systems have one thing in common...they consistently trade against the market flows be short medium or long term.....someone in this forum mentioned the "herd mentality"...these systems capture the heard mentality and trade against it...i think i said enough!....g/l g/t

Normandy Nick 00:57 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:47 GMT April 27, 2004
no, they don't offend me at all and I understand what you mean about the risk/reward ratio. Last week, this has worked everyday exept thuesday where the prices did not rebound as expected, but a stop reverse in the third sector saved the steak.what is sure is that if it works today, it will mark the minds...!

shanghai bc 00:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

OMIL -- Good morning..Thanks for your kind words..Good trades to you..

Brisbane L 00:53 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc ok thank you again

ny amc 00:51 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
gold coast..............could you explain about any of the 3 or 4 systems that the pros use. i would love to hear about any of them. us new guys really appreciate the posts from the experienced traders such as yourself...........thanks and take care

Gold Coast martin 00:49 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
NICK...you are correct big fish trade with a Fixed trading system in normal conditions....and also you are correct in saying that luck plays no part in trading under normal trading conditions...of course the big fish would neve divulge their trade secrets....there are 3 or 4 trading systems that are consistently are used by big fish in normal trading conditions....good luck with your system...if it works for you it os a success...g/l g/t

shanghai bc 00:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

L -- Good morning..It is the character of the market moves that tells the nature of the market..Dollar bounce of last three months has been very much zig-zag moves revealing the nature of its correctional bounce ratehr than any start of bull market..The further bounce of Dollar may have the same pattern,two steps up and one step down and repeat..Till fast move from the other side starts sending Dollar fast down the road again in a few week's time..You could not possibly have lost money if you bought Eur/usd around every round figures 1.22.1.21.1.20.1.19.1.18 at first touch..And if you sold on 200 pips bounce from these round figures..Imho..Good trades..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:47 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick just my weird way of talking sorry I should be more professional about this. I forget we have a lot of participants here from many countries and they might not understand. That is why we probably have so many misunderstandings in this forum. I believe that your system has a problem with the risk reward ration and that could come back and hunt you. I would take advice from the seniors here like BC that asked you a question the other day. These people have put in their time and can teach us I thing or two. If you stick around here long enough you will learn who they are IMHO. I know you did not ask me for advice but just thought I tell you my ideas and hope they don’t offend you.

Dallas GEP 00:42 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr. KAT there is a very strong FIB point on EUR/CHF @ 1.5495. Could of course got thru that BUT I think the probabilities are much higher for it NOT to AT THIS TIME but time will tell.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 00:36 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
nah , euro$ resistance from internal diagonal on 1hr , long doesnt look too promising
eurchf looks short on most frames, 5 10 15 30 etc

Normandy Nick 00:32 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 00:22 GMT April 27, 2004
long eur/usd, following the plan at 1.1854. ready to square, ready to lose money but pretty sure it will work tomorrow if not today.

Normandy Nick 00:28 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:16 GMT April 27, 2004
I don't understand what you mean by " lip service" but thanx for the warning anyway. The real challenge for me is to proove that big fishes use a logical plan based on the exponential moving averages and that trading currencies has nothing to deal with luck in normal conditions.For now, eur/usd gave its buy signal at 1.1854 bid, I expect it to get 1.1905 ; square 1.1810 stop reverse 1.18.

Dallas GEP 00:24 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Correction Stop is at 1.5470 on eur/chf long

ICT ML 00:24 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
There is quite a battle going on at current euro-usd levels...interesting time of day for it.

KL KL 00:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 00:10 GMT April 27, 2004 , Do you intend to long at that level you mentioned?? What possie are you in now?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:22 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
BC your comments earlier about the dollar strength coming up has got a lot of people’s attention thanks for sharing that with us. GT

Melbourne Qindex 00:21 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the following is still valid in Asian Session.

Melbourne Qindex 12:07 GMT April 26, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 1.1760 - 1.1785 - 1.1810 - 1.1833 - 1.1858 - 1.1883 - 1.1907 // 1.1932 ... 1.1980 ...

Dallas GEP 00:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK long now on EUR/CHF from 1.5505 stop @ 1,5480 target 1.5550

Brisbane L 00:20 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc good morning, noted earlier that you see the Chf 135 before a reversal, do you think we could see a short term rebound chf and other Europeans for about 2-3 days before the USD rally resumes ? appreciate you opinion on that , many thanks

ny amc 00:18 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
normandy.......................i say go for it. i for one am always open to new ideas from experienced people

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick remember the idea for your test is that you feel comfortable going to battle with it so forget about any lip service you get from anyone and thanks for sharing your ideas with the rest of us. On the eur/usd front I still have a long intraday position but this bullish move has not been very strong. I will turn the intraday position around if the first support (1.1850) is taken out and held IMHO. GL GT

HOUSTON KEN 00:16 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
please can someone tell me the support for cable so i wont get out to early or late? thanks

Dallas GEP 00:12 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Well firends, the two possies I like best right now are usd/chf and eur/chf long. The Eur/CHF pROBABLY has more range but will be a slower mover that usd/chf.

Normandy Nick 00:11 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:03 GMT April 27, 2004
I was referring to Quake III Arena lol !

Normandy Nick 00:10 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 00:00 GMT April 27, 2004
yes , long but only for the sector; then, everything is possible and if you follow this method you have to be prepared to engage a square at the specified level. What is sure, absolutly sure is that reactions appears on those levels, then if the sector is filled at 90 % and then, change of direction, just stop at breakeven or at 10 pips

Normandy Nick 00:06 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 00:00 GMT April 27, 2004
I back tested it for the last two months (can't check before), and I think it's good enough to be presented at this forum and I am ready to be humiliated in public if it fails!

Normandy Nick 00:04 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
revised numbers :bid prices
euro 1.1854/1.1897
chf 1.3060/1.3107
gbp/usd 1.7868/1.7807
aud/usd 0.7333/0.7355

shanghai bc 00:03 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   

Oh,the Normans are coming to capture the flag of King Harold..

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 00:01 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Prague Viktor.
about usd/jpy.
after near 110.00 like I have said before from my system.. in fact too many sellers wait there.
I think 107.45 is the first station and fair if touch 107.17-106.97 keep your selling possie.

OK SZ 00:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick, so in the case of the euro you would be long because 1.1859 hit first, correct?

ny amc 00:00 GMT April 27, 2004 Reply   
normandy................how long have you tried your native sector theory........it sounds interesting. when do you think you will have the test ready?

 




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