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Forex Forum Archive for 04/28/2004

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Ga Lee 23:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tony's around here from time to time..

ny DTA 23:56 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone here know the trader whos nick name is "Fat Tony" ?? from NYC

Melbourne Qindex 23:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dublin CK 23:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi & Welcome Sp Fork MZ

Sp Fork MZ 23:23 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
First time here...just wanted to say hello

Global-View 22:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
GVM. Heard the same thing but better to be safe than sorry.

Sydney gvm 22:52 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
GV not sure if anyone has mentioned it but that Virtual Card email virus you mentioned yesterday is a hoax

Global-View New research Section 22:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

We have launched a new research section, which has gotten off to a great start and will be expanded over time. It is accessible on the center of our homepage or on the GVI links on our right sidebar or by CLICKING HERE

OK SZ 22:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex (NY) thanks for the heads up..gl, gt

Spotforex NY 22:07 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
The $380 area offers some support for the moment, but downside acceleration below that level with $340 as a potential target....

Spotforex NY 22:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
from GVI...

The longer gold stays below $387...then a further correction is likely...

"Spotforex NY 01:27 GMT April 26, 2004
For those who saw me turn very, very, very bullish on Gold a few years back - my weekly system has turned BEARISH the yellow metal last week.....I was looking for the 440 high hurdle mark, but seemed to have fallen short for the moment.

This is the first bearish reading since March 5th 2001...yes 2001. The first bias change in over THREE years.

The daily charts have the makings of a potential double top, but the $387 level needs to be taken out...."

SF MRZ 21:56 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I'm looking at the same number 1.1853

OK SZ 21:51 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
euro has to push thru 11853 resistance now to have any legs..

SF MRZ 21:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ needs to stay closed above 1.1837 in the next half hour to confirm down movement stall for range trading.

SF MRZ 21:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
That's great, I got stopped out alot yesterday, but this last down move on Eur/$ I made it all back and then some.

Munich Ronny 21:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Is anybody else seeing this 460 pip movement or is this only on my EURUSD chart ?

slv sam 21:22 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:58 GMT January 19, 2004
euro could sink to 1.14 level if bad news started to come out of europe.just a feeling!GT

according to shanghai bc $/chf will visit 1.35...this means e/$ 1.14?GT

ny amc 21:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
just closed usd/jpy short +16 pips. 3rd time in that one today for a total of 81 pips.............i finally did something right

SF MRZ 21:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Average daily market move is about 68 pips, if I only try to capture 15%, then thats's about 10 pips.

balmain prop 21:14 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
if gdp and job less data tomorrow in US isnt as good as expected - wouldnt want to be still long usd.

SF MRZ 21:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
1+2+3+5+8+13+21+34=87 Plan to play 8 in a row. If I loss then take a break.

Jbl s 21:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin
me too but getting another one

Sydney alimin 21:10 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
i couldnt access the fxtrek chart, anyone else is having this problem?

SF MRZ 21:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
1:1, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1 -- win:loss -- depends on the market

Va Raven 21:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Then, you are telling me that you are not serious.
Thanks for the answer anyway.

SF MRZ 21:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Let just say for 1 pip I can risk 87 pip to finally make 1.

Va Raven 21:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Just curious, how many pips do you plan to risk for that a few pips gain? I am serious.

SF MRZ 20:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 20:50 GMT April 28, 2004

Yup, a few pips a day is all I need.

GVI john 20:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1840…$/yen 110.10
DJIA 10,343, -136 pts…NASDAQ 1,990, -43 pts
10-yr 4.49%, +9 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
Forex trade was volatile Wednesday and the dollar wound up on top. The logic of the markets was a bit hard to figure, but a news report that the Chinese Premier had indicated in an exclusive Reuters interview that China will have to take stern measures to keep the economy from overheating saw the price of precious metals and basic commodities tumble. Stocks and bonds fell as well. This all could be an overreaction.

Also, there was some carryover from the headlines out of the Middle East on Wednesday. Additional activity in Fallujah, Iraq Wednesday caused a case of the jitters early in New York along with reports that a couple of major International airports had been closed temporarily due to local threats. Terrorism fears can fade pretty fast if nothing serous materializes.

One key focus was preparations for the release of the U.S. 1Q04 GDP figure on Thursday. The street is widely expecting real annualized growth of 5% in the quarter, so there is ample room for disappointment on the report. The problem with the headline GDP figure is that inventory swings can have a major impact on the result. Rising inventories will boost GDP, but they might then have to be worked off, while falling inventories will depress GDP, but they might have to be restocked. The net export figure must include an estimate for March Trade since that figure is not out yet. Watch the Real Final Sales subcomponent, they are a cleaner measure of the strength of the economy. Estimates are for a rise of +4.2% after +3.6% in 4Q03.

Thursday also sees Weekly Jobless Claims. They are seen at a 340,000 level after 353,000 in the previous week. Jobless Claims at this level are consistent with monthly employment figures on the order of 150,000-200,000 per month Also, 1Q04 GDP is seen at 4.9% p.a., vs. +4.1% p.a. in 4Q03. Thursday marks the start of the Golden Days holidays in Japan.
CALENDAR
THURSDAY APRIL 29, 2004
JPN- Holiday-- Greenery Day
08:00 GMT- EUR- Mar M3 (money supply): vs. +6.6% in Feb
12:30 GMT- CDA- April Industrial Product Prices
12:30 GMT- CDA- April Business Conditions Survey
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT- US- 1Q04 GDP: vs. +4.1% in 4Q03, see +4.9%
14:00 GMT- US- 1Q04 Employment Cost Index: vs. +0.7% in 4Q03, see +1.0%

FRIDAY, APRIL 30, 2004
23:50 GMT- April Tokyo CPI, vs. -0.1 y/y
23:50 GMT- March Unemployment Rate, vs. 5.0%
06:45 GMT- FRA- Mar Unemployment Rate: vs. 9.8% in Feb
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr preliminary CPI: vs. +1.7% y/y in Mar
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr Business Sentiment: vs. -7 in Mar
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr Consumer Sentiment: vs. -14 in Mar
12:30 GMT- CDA- March GDP, vs. -0.1%
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Personal Income: vs. +0.4% in Feb, see +0.3%
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Personal Consumption Expenditures: vs. +0.2% in Feb, see +0.6%
13:45 GMT- US- Apr University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: vs. 93.2 in early Apr, see 94.0
14:00 GMT- US- Apr Chicago PMI: vs. 57.6 in Mar, see 59.0

slv sam 20:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 20:29/
there is no stupid market there is only stupid traders!GT

ny amc 20:51 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
raven....I wouldnt know a bs from a ps

Va Raven 20:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
SF MRZ 20:43 - Buying eur/usd here at 1.1840 for 1.1850?

slv sam 20:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc/
good Q!
It was close watching of price action from 14 to 20/April and some luck!GT

Va Raven 20:47 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
AMC, if I try to explain, you would know I am BSing you, because I don't know.
The guess is 0.6630 suport meant the business while gbp was overbought across the board.

SF MRZ 20:43 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Buying Eur/$ here. I think the market is going to try for 1.1850.

ny amc 20:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
raven.............can you explain to me why eur/gbp is showing so much strength over the last 2 days. thanks

Va Raven 20:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
No need to ask, very simple; money.

ny amc 20:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
slv..sam..............great call. wondering what in your eyes you saw that set that trade up

Va Raven 20:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
that's because market just realized today that uncle Sam was buying usd/cad under 1.35..... stupid market!

slv sam 20:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tks Raven. However I did not expect action this soon.I expected it next week!. I shall collect profit just under 1.40.GT

Va Raven 20:12 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Nice trade, sam!

slv sam 20:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:25 GMT April 28, 2004
slv sam 19:26 GMT April 26, 2004
Buy $/cad here at 1.3480/85 target 1.39+ stop 1.3280.GT

Now S/L raised to 1.3360.GT

S/L raised once more to 1.3460.GT

OK SZ 20:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
any guesses if we test the euro lows in asian session?

OK SZ 20:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
biscuit boy, I have a link I wanna pass along..you might find it to be of some assistance...I lost your email though..if you can put it in the help forum..

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Graphs can be interpreted several ways for the same graph. Oviously only one is correct. So another way to look at the overall EUR/USD picture is quite the opposite of my post a couple hours earlier which said that the trend is to incline for 1.5 years whereupon it that pair willl peak and start to decline. On the 1mo 5 yr. chart, exactly where we are right now, note a gradual decline after a rather steep decline of 1.26+ in Dec 2003.

Historically that formation (gradual decline after a steep decline) means there is a switch in trend and there's much more decline to come and the graph has topped out back in Nov '03 1.26+, making those who said that the dollar devaluation has just about come incorrect. It's all in the game. Time will tell.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
As the 1.1860-70 support for eur/usd gave way an intraday sell signal was given by my system and took out the last support at 1.1830-35. The market has made a statement that it will try to test the bottom (1.1760) once again but with a lot of traders holding out for the GDP data tomorrow we might not have enough strength for now to test the bottom today IMHO. GL GT

Gen dk 19:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Biscuit Boy 19:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq are you around....did u catch this very nice move in usd/cad? Maybe I need to start trading this pair!

hk ab nzd 0.65 19:52 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 19:09 GMT April 28, 2004


You can ask any hker to explain to them what does it mean by "negative asset".

Wellington amac 19:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Kiwi's a buy. Interest rates likely to rise. IMHO.

Livingston nh 19:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
A dozen pips separate the AUD/USD and the USD/JPY from their respective 200 da mva - yen bounced off this level hard last month - aussie hasn't broken this average in nearly two years

USA Biscuit Boy 19:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Sold eur/usd at 1.1839.

Nottingham 19:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
similar situation in the uk, but the argument here for continued price growth is the "island" one...still the fact that people are borrowing 8 to 10 times their salary clearly signals danger especially with zero savings and record consumer borrowing elsewhere...it will only take a small rise in rates to burst the bubble and the UK MPC isn't helping by sitting back and hoping for the consumer to see sense, as history proves they never do, given that there has never been a soft landing in the UK property market...so how to play this? Probably now best to avoid the market with new money since you cannot guarantee a safe exit, but those already involved may well find it prudent to start liquidating their portfolio into the sytrength we are seeing...expect most seem to be doing the exact opposite

nyc jk 19:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I went to a party on the weekend, one couple I was talking to were buying a 2 br apt as an investment, because they weren't getting a good enough return in cash. they were doing it on a highly leveraged basis. I asked "have you considered some worst case scenarios in case things don't go as you have planned?." the response was "well even if the bubble bursts and prices don't go up 10/15% or more a year as it has in the recent past, we will still at least break even on it in the next 3-5 years, better than sitting in the bank". I didn't really know where to begin responding to that so I just nodded and changed the subject to the Yankees poor start.

ny amc 19:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny.jk.............out east on long island

USA Biscuit Boy 19:14 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Squared my cable contra for 15 pips. Not an inspiring bounce to say the least!!!!

nyc jk 19:11 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Arty, I know what you mean. Scary some of the "investments" I am seeing people doing now in Manhattan real estate, and the way they are financing them too.....

LA ARTOFYEN 19:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Chicago, I think you are right in regards to equities as some people have gotten a little less brash with their investments are getting their due fills on last big move down. The market were people can't seem to fathom any losses are in real estate. Every day I met knew folks that just figured out the best way to finance their enormous apetites for consupmtion via quick plays in real estate. This very people will get stuck with property that was to be just a quick play for 100k but it will turn into a 500k loss!! They don't understand r/r like most of us seem to. Their quick investment will turn in to a long-term play (cuz real estate only goes up!!) and they will ride the storm. Until the bank comes knocking that is!

Chicago JMI 18:56 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gibraltar PW 18:37 GMT April 28, 2004
"Everyone thinks the bull is back times. That they'll retire rich from stock portfolios, pensions, real estate investments etc and the majority are rarely correct."

I don't know anyone who thinks this. Most people actually share your view that companies can't be trusted and the "sky is falling, chicken little" mentality. In the end, the market goes up, down, and sideways. It's better to go with the flow instead of trying to predict.

nyc jk 18:52 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
PW, some truth in the bearish factors you cite, and I agree that expectations of future returns for many are probably too high. However, I think if we are talking about a long term view, these things will only lead to diminished returns vs recent history, not a collapse that you are suggesting, imo. Bear markets (even really bad ones) come and go, but over the long term there is an undeniable, systematic, upward bias to equity prices. As for Elliot Wave theory, the big problem I have with it is it is not falsifiable, even Prechter himself has admitted that as it is wide open to subjective interpretation of the practioner.

Va Raven 18:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas - What exactly do you mean by that? Tia.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:42 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd still will touch 1.7671 . this number is very potential drift chart until 1.7815. IMO

Gibraltar PW 18:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc - jk You have a fair point ,I know they called it too early in 1995, and had to reassess the mania a couple of times after that no doubt. Though the did get THE top, and overall they could be wrong ,but I doubt it. The world has changed, scandals galore, frauds, 3rd world war against terror etc, corporations can't be trusted. I look at the charts and can see all is not well with stocks. I mean 75% off nasdaq about 35/40 off dji etc, Its no longer a buy and hold market, things have changed. Everyone thinks the bull is back times. That they'll retire rich from stock portfolios, pensions, real estate investments etc and the majority are rarely correct.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ya... helllo..

Calabash TarHeel 18:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gibraltar PW 18:19 GMT April 28, 2004
I don't have any idea where you are coming up with the statements you are posting here. In the late 70's, I was in my late 30's, there was no talk of the DJ going to zero or banks folding here.
Your posts make as much sense as the Elliott Wave theory,
None!

ny amc 18:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
just shorted usd/jpy at 110.16 looking for 109.80

Barcelona JP 18:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gibraltar PW 18:19 GMT April 28, 2004
UAE Oilman
This is the last I have to say on the matter.As you clearly don't know what you're talking about, I feel i should enlighten your blinkered view on the subject. If you'd read 'The elliott wave priciple' by frost and pretcher published in the late 1970's when the dji was ard 800, you'd know they stated in 'black and white' that the dji was about to increase atleast fourfold, when the majority consenus was that banks were going to collapse and the stock market was going to zero. Now almost everyone is a stock owner and can't percieve that stocks will go to zero and banks collapse. Everyone expects to be made rich by an ever increasing market. The fact of life is everyone can't be rich, it doesn't work like that. So I'm putting my money on the majority losing theirs owning stocks.

Gibraltar PW, Pretcher is one of my worst investments I ever made.
If you like Elliot, I did, change to Robert Miner: he is better.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
PW if DJI hits 40,000 in 10-15 years current stock owners will not be "rich". You must remember this figure of 40,000 is in nominal terms. You must discount for inflation. Remember 10 years ago how much a new car cost? Less than half of what you pay now! In 10 years your average new car is going to cost around $70-$80k. And the minimum wage here in the US will be around $20 per hour (currently $8 where I live). It's all relative.

nyc jk 18:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
amc - Manhattan, east side....you ?

nyc jk 18:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
PW, I don't know about what they were saying in the 70's so you may be right on that part. However, I vividly remember a salesman from Prechter's company coming to my bank to market their services in 1992 and giving a presentation about how we were at the peak of the "Grand Supercycle" I think they called it, and US equities were on the verge of a trememdous collapse starting within 6 mounths. Well, we all know how that turned out......

ny amc 18:22 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny.jk..........where in ny are you from

Gibraltar PW 18:19 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oilman
This is the last I have to say on the matter.As you clearly don't know what you're talking about, I feel i should enlighten your blinkered view on the subject. If you'd read 'The elliott wave priciple' by frost and pretcher published in the late 1970's when the dji was ard 800, you'd know they stated in 'black and white' that the dji was about to increase atleast fourfold, when the majority consenus was that banks were going to collapse and the stock market was going to zero. Now almost everyone is a stock owner and can't percieve that stocks will go to zero and banks collapse. Everyone expects to be made rich by an ever increasing market. The fact of life is everyone can't be rich, it doesn't work like that. So I'm putting my money on the majority losing theirs owning stocks.

Va Raven 18:11 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Very well put, Oilman!

UAE Oil man 18:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gibraltar PW 16:54 GMT April 28, 2004
We should see dji trade sub 1000 in our lifetime if believe elliottwave.com, which i do.
The decline of over 200 years of rising prices (UK stock mkt translated into US stock prices) started in the year 2000. Since the lows ard 7000 (wave 1). we have just finished a bear market rally (wave 2), which has taken over 18 months and terminated in the last couple of months. The first real base/support should be ard 4000 (wave 5 of A). However an eventual market low is expected in the next couple of decades sub 1000 fwiw.



------
I guess this explains all....AN ELLIOT WAVER....HIDE CHILDREN AND WOMAN NOW..(lol).........The boat's sinking....Talking about elliot wave, if you were following elliot wave since 1930..you would have lost 60 years of enormous bull markets looking for a wave down...

Va Raven 17:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hahahah.... jk, you are a sharp guy, very much so from the posts you contributed here, relatively new though. Looking for more out of you in the future!

nyc jk 17:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I saw once you did the other day.....but you used good discipline and got out with not big losses, now you more than make up for it catching the bigger move. Of course you could have just followed a well used technique here and doubled, tripled , quadrupled up and made stacks more money instead :) seriously though, well done on this trade.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
just to note...check the 10 year eur/usd chart. The general incline we are in now (USD devaluating - EUR evaluating) has if you want to speculate on graph techniques, about 1.5 years to go before it reverses big time and the USD will theoretically be on a 5 year evaluation process. But then again this 10 year sample postulation above is not in the least bit accurate since the Euro hasn't been around that long to make the above statement back trackable.

I think some of us are tempted to get too dependant on shorter term technicals and don't use common sence over the broad scope. Forex impresses me but it also impresses me of those (like me) who are playing the short run (for lots of profit!!) yet lose the long run trends.

Va Raven 17:46 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jk, you know I paid the price twice first for that..... I guess we should never quit, eh?

nyc jk 17:41 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
lol Raven. nice GBP trade by the way, you really nailed that one!

Va Raven 17:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 17:18 - Like Gspan, other than the good point, nh simply doesn't know how to make the point..... So, I usually just say, point well taken, nh and thanks.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
In regards to the near bottom of EUR/USD...I like looking at 'big picture' than 'small picture' analysis. The 6 month EUR/USD chart puts the "bottom" for this leg at around 1.1600 max. - 1.1550 min. in another 10 days- 2 weeks, perhaps a week at the inside given we don't have geopolitical variables intersecting. Note the slope of this last large leg (Jan '04 to present) is less abrupt than the slope of the incline from Nov 2003- Jan 2004 meaning that the trend of down movement of eur/usd is less abrupt than the upward movement. This to a studier of graphs means a more lengthy timewise 'down' in trend, supporting the idea that the end is nigh for the evaluation of the USD on this cycle.

Expanding the view further looking at the 1 year chart (big pictures tell more than little pictures) you'll see an obvious "general" decline of dollar value against the EUR.

Going yet further to the 3 year chart it's even easier to note. By the 3 year chart you can see we're about due to change to an up leg on EUR/USD meaning of course USD devalues, EUR evaluates on this pair.

The postulaton of a USD that is toilet paper in 10 years is pure speculation (not to insult the poster!) because:

1. The big-big-big picture hasn't happened yet...it's "vous ja de"...the Euro hasn't been in existance enough time to form a 5 or 10 year chart/trend much less a prediction.

2. If the USD is toilet paper it will mean somewhat like the Chinese, it will then become an export nation like never before and will flat out kick butt until the entire process repeats itself again and again and again. The upcoming countries of today such as China and India will peak just like the rest and eventually will ebb. Cycling is not only normal, it's predictable.

Remember, this planet has been around for over 4 billion years, there's plenty of time left to cycle.

Responsible management globally, care not to allow excesses or deep faults and generally good "business sence" on a global level will prevent catastrophic world wide events. If mankind has evolved at all in the last 12,000 years, that will be the test.

hk ab nzd 0.65 17:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nk, my bet on cad is around 1.4 fwiw.

Wash DC Tempus 17:33 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
To Gibraltar:

Not to get personal but are you kidding.... The US is and continues to remain that catalyst for global growth....
Until the Euroozne has soem cohesion in several issues, including but not limited to teh Satability Pact, interest rate policy, growth rates, unemployemnt rates....
and most importantly non-state sponsored growth, there is little concern about the US$ losing luster.
Underfunded state pension liabilities (aging baby boomers n'est pas), strong unions and fertile ground supporting radical Islamic terrorism will all hurt each of teh currencies over teh next five years.

in other words i will happily be on the opposite side of any 1.5000 2 yr EUR calls you buy

USA Biscuit Boy 17:28 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Bought small gbp/usd at 1.7716 for a contra, target 1.7780/90.

nyc jk 17:18 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
good point nh. they talk about that in the book a bit and break out returns by dividend and equity risk premium effects. in a nutshell, I think what you ae saying is part of their argument about why returns will be a little lower in the future.

Athens 17:06 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Re my 08:54 it didn't take long for the market to show once again that when it comes to big trends (or big corrective moves) the reversal is not a touch-and-go process. I had many calls from friends since last night (not on the FF) suggesting that USD downtrend has already resumed. Pesonally I was/am not sure that even its medium term bottom is already in place although I must repeat that regarding EUR/$ the area 1.1690-1.1750 may indeed serve as the end of the correction. We shall see.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Speaking of long term investment... rule of thumb = double money in 5 years or less, label it "good". "Excellent" = 3-4 years. Loan officers go by this in alalysing loan applications for feasability and ability to repay the loan. That goes for funds, stocks, business..whatever, taking into consideration NO inflation. So 100% return in 10 years is sort of slow and you can do better. FX & day trading stocks are "incredible" if such .

Gibraltar PW 17:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I believe the dollar is going to lose over 50 perct of its value in the decades to come. It will be the 'toilet paper' currency, not the euro. Eur$ targets 1.80+, cable 2.50+, $chf 0.8- etc. Which i think aren't unreasonable.

melbourne farmacia 17:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hehe ...just had a bad feed on my charts .. candle spikes down to 1.1846 on swissy.. Might be telling us something down the track. - Cable might bounce from current 1.7718 support to @ 1.7780 .Good night

Livingston nh 17:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jk - dividends used to exceed fixed income returns those many years but only because stocks were risky - not being the case anymore seems reasonable that treasuries outpay dividends

Livingston nh 17:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
PW - and the USD will be equal to __ ? Go back to the first time Dow hit 1000 and check against currencies -- EUR at .3072?

USA Biscuit Boy 17:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
arizona AZ 16:47 GMT April 28, 2004

I am looking foward to shorting it 1.1860/70 very much. Whether we get back up there before fqalling again I don't know.

nyc jk 16:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
actually very reasonable views by Oilman, imo. there is an excellent book written by 3 London professors called Triumph of the Optimists which did an exhaustive study of returns of markets in 16 countries, including US and British equity markets over 101 year period. Cumulative return on US stocks over that period? About 1.5 million percent. Yep that is correct, 10% a year compounded over a century. Now the authors own conclusions are that the next century will see lower returns, but hey, I'd be happy with 1 million percent!

nyc jk 16:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
actually very reasonable views by Oilman, imo. there is an excellent book written by 3 London professors called Triumph of the Optimists which did an exhaustive study of returns of markets in 16 countries, including US and British equity markets over 101 year period. Cumulative return on US stocks over that period? About 1.5 million percent. Yep that is correct, 10% a year compounded over a century. Now the authors own conclusions are that the next century will see lower returns, but hey, I'd be happy with 1 million percent!

Nottingham 16:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
in the uk, investment boutique and internet championer, durlacher, reached over £40 at their peak where their own analysts called the surge in new economy stocks as being based on a "new paradigm"...durlacher threw in the towel on their internet portfolio near the lows when there shares fell as low as 5 pence (not pounds)...can anyone remember the name of the american guy that called for nasdaq 10,000 and dow 100,000...used to be a regular appearer on cnbc...I'm sure he'll be dusted down if the markets climb much further...it seems people never learn...gl gt

Gibraltar PW 16:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
We should see dji trade sub 1000 in our lifetime if believe elliottwave.com, which i do.
The decline of over 200 years of rising prices (UK stock mkt translated into US stock prices) started in the year 2000. Since the lows ard 7000 (wave 1). we have just finished a bear market rally (wave 2), which has taken over 18 months and terminated in the last couple of months. The first real base/support should be ard 4000 (wave 5 of A). However an eventual market low is expected in the next couple of decades sub 1000 fwiw.

Helsinki iw 16:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ If EUR/USD closes under 1,1830 today it will make a key reversal down. While a fan of 4hour and daily reversals, this would come at a late stage in a downtrend and as such could be an exhaustive sign. Interesting though, and worth following if momentum picks up. Especially with the Chinese story on base metals out.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I think Oil Man's expectation of Dow Jones at 40,000 in possibly 10 years is very reasonable. In 1987 the index was 2,000. In 1997 the index was 8,000. Where will it be 2007?

Even a relatively risk-free investment in cash you will realise an average 100% return over 10 years so in the long run you will be rewared significantly more by investing in much riskier stocks. But remember you have to account for inflation.

arizona AZ 16:47 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone's opinion of short-term euro/us; trading range?

Va Raven 16:43 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Oilman for assuming that I might live for another 300 years..... very nice of you!

UAE Oil man 16:43 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I guess dow jones breaking 20 000 will bring as many sceptics as when it broke 4000....This is it...market is finished...bla bla bla...

OK SZ 16:43 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
the thing that worries me now is the expectations of a much higher than expected gdp..with everyone thinking of shorting this thing we go the other way for awhile..

San Francisco Jin 16:40 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

anyone trading eur/usd, aud/usd, usd/chf from san francisco bay area..

i am part time and trade for more than a year but didn't go anywhere.. need some local advices... i like to use yahoo messenger.. my yahoo id is jinnisf.

UAE Oil man 16:40 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:31 GMT April 28, 2004


Yes Raven....You might see 100 k ;)

OK SZ 16:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy, agree with you, I thought with the 1.1832 level we would have bounced much higher..bears have control now. just depends when this will happen..gl,gt

sf cc 16:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Pls do not mock Oilman. Say reported inflation finally reflects reality.. say 5% a year... throw in real GDP growth of 3% p.a., so the base is already 8% p.a. Or dollar depreciates by half. so 'real' value of DOW is much lower... lots of ways for 40K to come thru.... after all, Dow 36K is pretty much a given, no? LOL...

OK SZ 16:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
JK, yes I agree with that..thanks for your reply..gl,gt

KL KL 16:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Maybe Gbp usd can have a final dip to the 1.7650 area soon before a spring to 1.78. Don't like the price action...losing power for the GBP bulls at the moment IMHO

USA Biscuit Boy 16:33 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Net dollar shorts continue to build and is gaining momentum on my platform. Guys this is not going to be a pretty week for dollar bears.

nyc jk 16:33 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
sure SZ, respect your view, just saying I wouldn't use James Grant as supporting evidence for it though. Buffet on the other hand has a slightly better track record....:)

OK SZ 16:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
oil man, I hope your a very young man:)

Va Raven 16:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Oil man, by rough estimate, I am 23 now, do I have a chance to see that 40k in my life?

OK SZ 16:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I really never have followed him, my case being that being in cash at this time is the safer bet at this time..thanks for your follow-up

UAE Oil man 16:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I m still very bullish on Dow jones(13 000), and believe i will see 40 000 with my own eyes in a decade perhaps..

nyc jk 16:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
SZ - not sure how long you have known of James Grant for, or if you are aware of the history of his calls in Grant's Interest Rate observer, but that is almost always his view. The guy is an excellent writer, erudite and lucid, with a knack for penning a good phrase. Having said that, in all my time in financial markets, I have never seen anyone more spectacularly wrong than him. He was bearish equities throughout the entire great bull market of the 80's and 90's. The huge bond rally in the 90's? yep you guessed it, he was bearish there too. If you had followed his advice in the past you would have long ago been wiped out.

OK SZ 15:52 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Jim Grant of grant's interest rate observer was just on the box and said with these rates and the p/e of the indexes it's best to be in cash than the markets at this time..totally agree..if the great warren buffett is sitting with 35 billion in cash something has to tell you something there..even though cash your not making squat..this is a tough call for many though..

Wisconsin tim 15:47 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gep, i am doing that using stop ins and reverses on both sides

used it to get into this gbp short with 20+ pips on up side then reverse for current short leg hope these 20+ pip swings hold up

thoughts?

Gold Coast martin 15:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Should this 7240-50 level hold for the aud until the end of the ny session then the 7150 level should be seen within the first 2 hours of the australian trading session...g/l g/t

Dallas GEP 15:42 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
GUYS I will be back later. IMO what MIGHT work now are some contra trades for 20-30 PIPS ONLY. NOTE: Contras are MORE risky because your positon is AGAINST the current trend (eur/usd long for example would be contra)

Nottingham 15:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
cad...1.368x important zone

KLA KLA 15:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes I agree with u about Brown, I bought at 7745

LAX-LGB SNP 15:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
oops - i meant long on gbpjpy/eurjpy

LAX-LGB SNP 15:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
PAR - amen to that ! bought aud$ too ... still short on conti-yennies ;-)

saloniko 2004 nk 15:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Just sold

USD/CAD..and LONG Euro again...


nk

PAR 15:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Bougth GBP at 1.7750. Brown wants BOE to raise UK interest rates.

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
OK RIGHT now I would say EUR/USd is SELL on rallies to 1.19, USD?CHF is a BUY on dips to 1.3020, USD/CAD a buy on dips to 1.3620. In other words I am not to terribly excited about CURRENT levels

saloniko 2004 nk 15:19 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man..
Market like u..LOL!..but try first 1.17..

UAE Oil man 14:54 GMT April 28, 2004


nk*!*

Livingston nh 15:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's big figure is likely to be the Employment Cost Index - wages and salaries have not been rising but even with pass along of insurance costs to employees most employers are seeing 15 to 20 % hikes in benefits

USA Biscuit Boy 15:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
FWIW net long eur/usd positions have increased again on my platform suggesting buy on dips mentality may be back for the short term. Good indication of dollar strength to continue for at least the short term. Looking to re-establish eur/usd short positions on rallies.

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
What is needed NOW IMO is a little time to let the water boil on these possies!! LOL

Brisbane L 15:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   


US Jobless Claims Seen Dn 10,000 Apr 24 Wk
US Advance 1Q GDP Seen Up At 5.0% Rate
CNBC Survey:

Dallas GEP 14:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I think dollar bull possies will consolidate here at these levels and may pull back slightly. I think continuation of dollar bull positions PROBABLY will continue but at a very slow choppy pace UNLESS there is a concerted effort to run these stops (that is unpredictable for the most part)

ham cla 14:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: frenchman sold agressiv to the 1.1829 low.

houston st 14:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

scaled in a few more eur/usd during today's dip; my thanks to those giving gold away today. :)

UAE Oil man 14:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 16:33 GMT December 31, 2003
UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x ˆ
Then 1.0450
Then 1.16+
1.12
1.26
the coccoon is ready to mature!
-------------
December 31 2003 :
Sell EURO$ 1.25-1.35 (use options if u have too) target .9550..(before .6500 in 2 years.)

Ciao happy new year .

----------


I m already thinking about my december 31 2004 post ;)

OK SZ 14:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
by the way i did take a small long euro at 11832 for a scalp/

Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
BTW, YES my typing still sucks!!!

OK SZ 14:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
earlier this morning heard a report aboutthe chinese may have to rein in the pace of expansion..that should have hit me that this pullback was going to hit..missed that boat..oh well..

houston st 14:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

ny amc 14:49 GMT - nice job.

Dallas GEP 14:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Ok Guys Continuation MOVES can be very HARD to predict so opening possies based on that scenario is MORE risky than normal. For example: Eur may very well break this 1.1830/35 level BUT if you short from here you may have to hold a 50-80 pip stop. I would be better to see a sustained break of 1.1830/35 OR to take a short from 1.1880/1.19 area. I AM NOY saying shorts from here won't work but that they are MORE risky.

houston st 14:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

ny amc 14:44 GMT - hope it works out for both of us; gl/gt.

ny amc 14:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
just closed usd/jpy short at 109.80 for a quick 20 pips

melbourne farmacia 14:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Singapore SFX - Some hope we see new lows ( spikes ) for next week.. ( my email's out with a virus tonight ).

OK SZ 14:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
remember the other day when euro hit 11832 it went up from there..

ny amc 14:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
just shorted usd/jpy at 110.02 looking for a pullback to 109.75-80

Gold Coast martin 14:41 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
A POINT TO REMEMBER GENTLEMEN:in relation to gold remember the 'HEARD MENTALITY"..while everyone is dumping it short term you all should be looking for a bounce to a more median level of 392-392.50 range within the next 2 trading sessions....just thought i remind everyone....g/l g/t

houston st 14:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold spiking down thru the 200 dma didn't help it's case. any gold gurus here have an opinion of where support is? tia.

van Gecko 14:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
every pip at these temporary depressed major vs usd levels is worth its weight in gold.. $380 gold is a tough nugget to crack..

Calabash TarHeel 14:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q.
Great calls as usual. If you ever get to the southeast coast of the US, I owe you a dinner.
Many Thanks.
TarHeel


ham cla 14:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ham cla 12:55 GMT April 23, 2004
SILVER: romour of huge stops, below 6.00!


LondonJoe 14:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
metals all taking a hit on the news of china tighening equity requiremnts for capital investment projects.. of course aud cad and zar all getting a work-out on the back of this.. i am happy to buy the dip here in AUD .7225/.7175 region in aud in wrong below .7125 and look for a retracement back to .7350/.7425 region.

ham cla 14:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
but silver lead the whole move in gold. there was the romour the other day of huge stops below 6.00.

slv sam 14:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Closed long euro!
we could see 1.1640/50 by Friday.IMHO.GT

Van jv 14:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
And Dow -70

ham cla 14:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : dont know really.... all i heard was heavy fund selling after the pm fix in gold. and then stops...

Nottingham 14:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
silver now at huge levels fwiw

ICT ML 14:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ham cla 14:27
cla...what the helll is going on today?

houston st 14:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

gold is the wildcard today; it's loss is $Bulls gain. gt.

ham cla 14:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
forget it!!!

ham cla 14:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold low so far 384.50/85

London MaM 14:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Whoa silver down 25% to 4.67 ...

USA Biscuit Boy 14:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys well a little bit of action for everyone today :) Thanks Dr. Q, gold as usual!

london phil 14:23 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold 384 printed not good for long aus

HK Kevin 14:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 14:07 GMT, very good s/t term. I covered my long USD/JPY last night at ~109.60.

Dallas GEP 14:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
NEWBIE "large" depends on the size of the account of course. It also means the position size is larger than normal so a LARGE amount could be for example 150 lots if normal possie size is 50.

Closed rest of euro shorts from 1.1925 @ 1.1860. Expect tho 1.1835 to probably print or lower

ny amc 14:19 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Just closed my usd/jpy long from 109.25 at 109.70.....still short eur/gbp

london phil 14:18 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
wowjust popped out for half hour gold now at 386 xxxnearly 10 dollars on the day

GER ad 14:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Long AUD/USD at 0.7238 tight S/L

UAE Oil man 14:07 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
closed the Daily $YEN 108.85 from this morning @109.60..

keeping GBPJPY .

prague viktor 14:06 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin :Good call,Im with u from few looking with u for the 0,715 I hope we will be there soon or may be 0,69 G/LGT

HK Kevin 14:06 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Last change to sell Cable is when it rebound to 1.7840.

Bandung Dewan 14:02 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Gbp/usd going to 1.7900
GL

Gold Coast martin 14:01 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I wonder where florence pinnocchio is,,,or was his name finnocchio?....

OK SZ 13:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ST, thanks and I am also watching the 1.1866 level Mr. Q has suggested as a deciding factor..have a good day..

houston st 13:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 13:49 GMT - good job; range trading seems to be the order of the day again today; appears most are waiting for Thursday's releases; might as well go with it; continued success to you & gl.

SA Newbie 13:51 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
LONDON IJ go to the help forum, most of yr questions will be answered there

Global-View 13:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
London IJ 13:44 GMT April 28, 2004 - Ask you question on our Help Forum

OK SZ 13:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Morning ST, yes I picked up some pips on a short from 1.1910 and closed them at 70..still feels like euro is heading higher though..will wait to see if we can push above 119 to try a small long there..flat now though..gl,gt to you

houston st 13:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

OK SZ 13:39 GMT - good morning; been sidelined most of the morning, although I did scale back into some cheaper eur/usd below 1.19xx a short time ago; still holding some length and watching the ranges today; hope you are well and good trades.

London IJ 13:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
someone kindly help me out here please

OK SZ 13:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
for the euro I believe the 11835 level is the key..that was pretty good support and if we fall below there...as they say look out below..today should be interesting though..gl, gt

London IJ 13:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Please I am new to forex trading. When trading with a candlestick char, which is the best to use, a 1 minute,5,10,15 or 30 minute candlestick chart?

Also what do I watch out for in the sticks to indicate BUY or SELL?

Kaunas DP 13:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 12:07 GMT April 28, 2004
are u trading on your own, or working for corporate/institutional oys - TIA

HK Kevin 13:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR under 1.1865 opens the gate for 1.1810/20. Still short from 1.1920. This USD/CAD is really amazing.

ny amc 13:19 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
qindex.............what are your thoughts on usd/jpy and eur/gbp. thanks for always taking the time to help

Livingston nh 13:19 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable looks to have started one of its many two day drops and the 200 da mva comes into focus // the AUD/USD has broken yesterday's low and is headed for a test of last week's low around .7230

london phil 13:14 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold 391xx

Normandy Nick 13:10 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I hope it will hold the shock till gbp/usd gets 1.78 or usd/chf 1.3055 or euro 1.1850 where I expect a rebound. If it works, that should be enough to recover my loss.

london phil 13:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nick the aud usd follows the gold closely and that has come off 4 dollars today

Normandy Nick 13:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Actually this long trade on aud/usd is bad engaged as eur and gbp haven't touched the ground yet IMO. I'll try to escape around 0.73 is possible, stop 0.7260

Ulaanbaatar baagii 12:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Happy trades............

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Heard about a lot of options EUR 1.18 exp tod NY session
Any ideas? TIA

Cleveland Newbie 12:51 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:48 GMT April 28, 2004

Conventional wisdom here in Fantasyland would suggest to double up!!! Just ask some of the stars here mate.

Nottingham 12:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
aussie...fwiw one report is looking for 7100/50 if US GDP comes in strong (>6%)...gl gt

melbourne farmacia 12:48 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Florence Pinocchio 12:34 GMT April 28, 2004
Hey mate, i longed AUD/USD at 0.7950 some weeks back, when should i take a loss. Thanks pino and keep up the great work..

Melbourne Qindex 12:46 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:11 GMT April 28, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my 5-day cycle charts suggested that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1777 - 1.1954 and the mid-point reference is 1.1866 which is also the key quantized level of my 5-day cycle. It is reasonable to believe that a strong pullback is imminent.


... 1.1644* ... // 1.1777* - 1.1822 - 1.1866* - 1.1910 - 1.1954* // ... 1.2087 ...

houston st 12:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 12:13 GMT - I currently use cqg, which I first started using back in 2001. there are lots of good packages out there - most much cheaper too - but I really like them. Get my email address from Jay if you want to know more. gl.

Nottingham 12:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
also silver very weak and has printed a new low (albeit barely)...needs a move above 6.10 and a close above 6.23 to inspire bulls and force some short covering...key levels on the downside are 5.93, 5.88/5.85, 5.71...gl gt

slv sam 12:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
fxdh/ yes i still hold..but price action since 1.1955 is not good for euro!GT

Bristol David 12:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
We believe you despite you long nose !

Florence Pinocchio 12:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends, earlier I sold EUR at 1.1952 and took profit at 1.1877, sorry couldn't post at the time.

nyc fxdh 12:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
slv sam...you still long euro looking for 1.20.?? thanks

london phil 12:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold continues down 392.7-393.2

UAE Oil man 12:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Cleveland Newbie 12:27 GMT April 28, 2004

Everything is relative to one's mind and wallet...Like a floor trader thinks a day trader is a positional trader...

e=MC^2 ;)

Cleveland Newbie 12:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi Friends. Just out of curiosity, what dollar amount constitutes a "large number", when people refer to it?

slv sam 12:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 19:26 GMT April 26, 2004
Buy $/cad here at 1.3480/85 target 1.39+ stop 1.3280.GT

Now S/L raised to 1.3360.GT

london phil 12:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coming off the boil 394.5-395

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:16 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 12:07 GMT April 28, 2004
We need a couple of jokes to loosen up the atmosphere here it is as thick as an iron curtain lol.

ST I am also on the sideline after the whipsaw effect yesterday will see were the market will take us next. GL GT

Dallas GEP 12:14 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Morning Friends. Have a large number of shorts from 1.1925 average traded now. Closed some much earlier at 1.1910 and the rest I am targeting 1.1865. Very boring market in regards to eur/usd.

ny amc 12:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
houston............i think we get 110.xx on usd/jpy as well. curious as to what charting software you use? take care

houston st 12:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:00 GMT - expecting alot of consolidation in today's market unless some real money players try to manhandle the market; range trading may be the order of the day; currently on the sidelines holding eur/usd length and watching for opportunity. good luck.

Kaunas 12:07 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:00 GMT April 28, 2004

I don't think "55ma on 1h chart and 20ma on 4h chart" sounds very reasonable.

That sounds verymuchlike "127ma on 15min chart gives very strong support!".

sorry for sarcasm, but couldn't hold on.

Normandy Nick 12:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hello,
I've just bought some aud/usd at0.7306. I expect a minimum around 0.7280, target 0.7370

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Something is got to give as eur/usd pair rides a very tight bullish T/L and the 55ma 1hr chart or the 20ma on the 4hr chart as support for now. With very little data coming out today I guess the market might focus on any headlines that concern the US. GDP data on Thursday will now carry more significance now since it is clear that the market is waiting for that piece of data to decide were it will go next IMHO. GL GT

hong kong nt 11:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
AB -- your EUR/AUD is heading 1.67...

houston st 11:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

ny amc 11:30 GMT - something north of 109.87, which was the April 27 bounce high area on my platform, preferably w/ a 110.xx handle would be even better. I'm showing the 200 dma on my charting software as 110.10 at the moment, so probably around that level. gl/gt.

Stockholm za 11:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
re:-
-- Stockholm za 15:15 GMT April 27, 2004
( EUR/USD - GBP/USD )<------- [ ema 21 ] ----- >

Both pairs got their initial target which was given..

Sorry Jay,- it look like it is time for a long-long holiday..
Happy trades to all......


GVI john 11:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1890…$/yen 109.25
DJIA -23 pts… 10-yr 4.43%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
Forex markets seem to lack a strong focus at the present time and thus choppy trade has ensued while the markets lurch from headline to headline. U.S. action against Fallujah, Iraq and the Damascus bombings roiled the late Tuesday markets in NYC, but these events have already faded from view. All the markets have to look forward to for the balance of the wee is the 1Q04 GDP figure on Thursday. A rise on the order of 5.0% is already priced into the dollar, so we suppose there is some room in the report for a disappointment. GDP figures are always hard to trade on anyway because of the distortions that the inventory figures can create.

The BOJ met today before Japan embarks on the Golden Week holidays that start on Thursday and extend through the first three days of next week. The bank kept its ultra-easy monetary policy intact as widely expected. The bank also issued its semiannual GDP and CPI forecasts for FY2004. It predicted GDP growth of 3-3.2% and core CPI of -0.2%. The deflationary CPI forecast ensures that monetary policy will be left unchanged for the rest of the current fiscal year, as BOJ chief Fukui has promised that rates will not be raised until inflation turns positive. Position-squaring in the yen has seen $/yen trade lower.

BOE MPC committee member Marian Bell, a dove, further solidified expectations for a BOE rate hike next week when she indicated that rates will have to be raised. The current thinking in the City seems to be that rates are headed up “a quarter a quarter” this year until monetary neutrality is achieved. There is some debate on what constitutes neutrality, but there is agreement that it is at least 50bp’s higher from here. This view should be a sterling positive over the next few quarters.

In Europe, ECB V.P. Papademos stated that rates in the Eurozone are currently low enough to support an economic recovery. The FT reported Tuesday that in the ECB governing council of 18 members, 8 have recently offered the view that Eurozone interest rates are at least neutral or appropriate and three others have said the Eurozone will experience a gradual recovery. Thus more than half the members seem to be happy with leaving rates where they are. The ECB is not about to ease policy this year. It’s not clear if this is positive or negative for the euro. We feel it is neutral at best.

Australian 1Q04 CPI was at the high end of market expectations as it rose +0.9% in the quarter but it was up only +2.0% yr/yr. That is the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range. Inflation is not a concern in Australia and the economy remains well underpinned. The outlook for the Aussie$ should be constructive over time, once the current position adjustment phase has run its course.

The weekly energy survey results at 14:30 GMT are always worthy of scrutiny with global energy stocks still in short supply. Otherwise this is a slow day on the scheduled news and data front.
CALENDAR
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 28, 2004
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories

THURSDAY APRIL 29, 2004
JPN- Holiday-- Greenery Day
08:00 GMT- EUR- Mar M3 (money supply): vs. +6.6% in Feb
12:30 GMT- CDA- April Industrial Product Prices
12:30 GMT- CDA- April Business Conditions Survey
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT- US- 1Q04 GDP: vs. +4.1% in 4Q03, see +4.9%
14:00 GMT- US- 1Q04 Employment Cost Index: vs. +0.7% in 4Q03, see +1.0%

FRIDAY, APRIL 30, 2004
23:50 GMT- April Tokyo CPI, vs. -0.1 y/y
23:50 GMT- March Unemployment Rate, vs. 5.0%
06:45 GMT- FRA- Mar Unemployment Rate: vs. 9.8% in Feb
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr preliminary CPI: vs. +1.7% y/y in Mar
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr Business Sentiment: vs. -7 in Mar
09:00 GMT- EUR- Apr Consumer Sentiment: vs. -14 in Mar
12:30 GMT- CDA- March GDP, vs. -0.1%
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Personal Income: vs. +0.4% in Feb, see +0.3%
12:30 GMT- US- Mar Personal Consumption Expenditures: vs. +0.2% in Feb, see +0.6%
13:45 GMT- US- Apr University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: vs. 93.2 in early Apr, see 94.0
14:00 GMT- US- Apr Chicago PMI: vs. 57.6 in Mar, see 59.0


ny amc 11:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
houston...........what price would you be a seller of usd/jpy

houston st 11:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
morning all; still have eur/usd length; itching to sell usd/jpy but will probably wait until after Thursday's numbers; watching usd/chf for bc's potential runup towards 1.3500 level; would like to see eur/usd break thru 200 dma today; gl/gt.

van Gecko 11:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
well ab..may be the market will fool all of us with a foul ball.. anyways near term price actions sure looks like a bull teasing dollar dead cat bounce from a recent top..

dc fxq 11:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc fxdh 10:21 GMT - sorry I missed your orginal ??? here but CAD has taken out both 5 ema and my prop. reversal prices (1.3529 and 1.3548 respectively) to the upside. Would have been a decent hold unless 1.3548 was taken out again to the downside. :(

nyc fxdh 11:12 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I should have let that trade run !! lol

Stockholm za 11:06 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
fwiw..........
DPUD @ 500
Happy trades............

nyc fxdh 11:02 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
29 for me...LOL..thaks

No. It sv 11:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc fxdh, out at 35

hk ab nz 0.65 10:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
aud seems given up

No. It sv 10:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc fxdh 10:21 thoughts no, fingers crossed yes

Gen dk 10:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 10:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
gecko, if it fails 3 times, it will even have a greater effect I think.

nyc fxdh 10:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I amlong $cad @ figure...any thoughts

hk ab nz 0.65 10:14 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, thanks v. much, by conincidence, many experts eyeing an ultimate run of eur towards 1.16-1.1750 area to bet m/t reversal.

I think I will enter small first and add along the uproad during retracement.

also dlr/cad and gold will be closely watched.

Bristol David 10:10 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
euro/$ testing the 11900 figure

sarasota jf 10:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ab - personally thought 70-40 wud be short term eur range yesterday kind of went outside a little - now its eurgbp buying locking eur into a tighter range - personally gbp maybe better play looking for 1.7825/1.7925 range - my own view is i dont want to be long eurusd into tomorrows numbers so i will play from short side at some point (not short now)- gl/gt

van Gecko 10:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
A falling or rising 50 week dollar index ma always cap any m/t mid trend corrections..
At times, over/under-shoots will tease excited bull/bears into a buying/selling frenzy at/near the m/t corrective top/bottoms just prior to the m/t trend continuation reversal..
The dollar had failed for 2 consecutive weeks up at the falling 50 week ma..
more m/t freebie fx food for thoughts from the voodoo school of psychoanalysis..
cheerios..


hk ab nz 0.65 10:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, I remember the 600 pips blast in dlrchf prior to Christmas 2002.
same situation, same setting...

IST Sez 10:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Thnx D.Q.
watching your precious comments.

sarasota jf 10:02 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
eur = chf = gbp - all affected by one large movement in chf by an internal bank adjustment to buy chf- quite large size - the usdyen finding an accurate explanation -other than everyone followed dr q in euryen - is tough to explain - gl

hk ab nz 0.65 10:02 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, do u think 1.1950 has already marked another s/t top?
running for the ultimate bottom today.....

hk ab nz 0.65 09:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
what happened yesterday actually?

maybe they listened to q's recommendation and go longs altogether ? :)

hk ab nz 0.65 09:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, I got all of them GREEN TODAY!

Thanks jf.

sarasota jf 09:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ab - i hope you are out of the red today

Melbourne Qindex 09:46 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
IST Sez 08:45 GMT - AUD/USD is tracking the movement of EUR/USD. EUR/AUD is going to consolidate further.

Bristol David 09:40 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
certinainly is
keeps gunnig for the 1.7850 area

hk ab nz 0.65 09:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
bc// I am curious to ask sth on the m/t buy on eur.

you said the biggies will buy and accumulate quietly.
If say, they bought 1.19,1.18, 1.1775. And now they see 1.1921. Will they sold some of the euros bought first and then buy at a bit lower laterz? or they simply add to the positions no matter which number prints? In short, will they close position for short term trades if they see fast move up/down?

Know it's a kind of bothering, sorry.

hk ab nz 0.65 09:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
v. interesting cable.

Brisbane : 09:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
A large Asian sell order reportedly caused the late Sydney damage with the AUD sliding from 0.7340 to 0.7315.

Ga Lee 09:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
mark you can always ask your q's on the help forum..

IST Sez 09:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
No pay,no view!
I got it.thnx any way.

hk ab nz 0.65 09:17 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
oilman, u make my gb/jp short nervous ;))))

will close them whne my target meets and join your boat wagon.

Gen dk 09:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Minnesota Mark 09:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Hey you peoples, well, got myself spanked on the call options the past couple days, moves went againest me when the PHLX was closed and I couldn't trade. On the good side it only took away some profits from the previous week.

I think I need to get involved with what you are doing with the straight forex trading and just use options for long term trends. I have a ton of questions, but don't want to mess up this forum. ie.. where to trade, who with, platforms, etc.. If there is a way for someone to email me or MSN or something so I can pick a brain or two apart I'd be grateful.

UAE Oil man 09:07 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Picked up some $Yen (85) and GBPJPY(46)..

Athens 08:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Without claiming that history always repeats itself, let me remind that big medium/longer term moves don't change direction in touch-and-go fashion and, more often than not, the market tends to test at least twice a major low or high if it is to be the ending point of a straight trend or a corrective trend. To give a relatively recent example, last year at the time of the major EUR/$ correction from 1.1930 to 1.0760 we saw the following moves during the final stage. First a low 1.0790 on Aug 26, then a rebound to 1.1015 on Sep 1 and finally a low 1.0760 on Sep 3 before the uptrend resumed. Although I gave lately 1.1750 as a good support level and 1.1690 as the long term support line, I am not at all sure that a bottom is already in place or, less so, that the previous long term EUR/$ uptrend has already begun again.

IST Sez 08:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Qindex,
May I ask your view on aud/usd and eur/aud ?
TIA..

Melbourne Qindex 08:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 08:32 GMT - USD/CHF : I am bias on the upside. It should be safe to see 1.31.

Tokyo Jon 08:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hello qindex, hope all is well and you have been having a great week with the calls thanks for all the lobster. As you may well be aware I dont follow the USDCHF and would like your levels towards this pair. I am upward bias personal and looking looking for touch at 1.3130 for tonight. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 08:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 05:09 GMT - With a little bit of luck we may see cheaper EUR/USD in New York session.

Melbourne Qindex 08:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 06:30 GMT - See my updated weekly cycle analysis in my page.

Sydney alimin 08:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
your super magnet is working qindex :)

Sydney alimin 08:22 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
wow what a good fight we have here with eur/usd, trading range is narrowing

Melbourne Qindex 08:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:43 GMT April 28, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection profiles are is 1.1575 - 1.1959 and the mid-point reference is 1.1767. After expansion the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.1575* - 1.1671 - 1.1767 - 1.1863 - 1.1959*// ...

DAK Tk 08:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
sry sellin px is 1.7882

DAK tk 07:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
selling cable here with s/l at 1.7915 t/p 1.7840. Comments welcome. TIA. GL GT

sg tpe 07:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
any comment on euraud. anybody buying at 1.6200. TIA

MONACO OGA 06:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 28/04
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1890), 40 pips higher than Tuesday's opening. The pair tested 1,1920 many times despite some better than expected US consumer confidence data (high 1,1955 overnight) but as we stated yesterday , 1,1900-30 is still holding so far. Deterioration of the geopolitical situation should weight on the USD, but we still believe 1,1650 will be very hard to break, at least untill friday and the US jobless claims data. Support levels today : 1,1850 then 1,1790. Resistance kicking around 1,1920 then a stronger one at 1,1940-50. Overall we are still neutral on the medium term.

Data out today:
EURozone labour costs 4Q2 expected 2,5% 09.00 GMT

Gold at 397.50, with WTI June at 37.46

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 109,20) jumped from 108,40 to 109,85 on heavy buy orders and stop losses ahead of the golden week, retracing from 109,70 overnight to current levels on reported exporter offers and failure to break 110 psychological level. Support at 108,90 then 108,40. Next big level to watch on the upside is 110.
EUR/JPY (currently 129,80) hovering inside 128,50-130,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7890) tested resistance at 1,7940 (high 1,7973) before retracing to current levels. Trading range for today : 1,7820-1,7970.
EUR/GBP (0,6645) Like yesterday, we'll play the range and remain neutral on the cross as long as 0,6610 or 0,6750 have not been printed.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Cairns Aussie 06:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks...Newcastle GH and Ldn for your reply's...GT

QC WC 06:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, have we seen the pull back magnet level you were mentioning or there is still more to come?

Ldn 06:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD surged to 1.1955 to take out a 1.1950 barrier before back under 1.1930. The move higher was sparked by a large buying flow in the
GBP/USD.

Karachi A.A.A 06:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
can anyone reccomend a forex site which features a couple of months archives i.e exchange rates on a particular day/month

Karachi A.A.A 06:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
can anyone reccomend a forex site which features a couple of months archives i.e exchange rates on a particular day/month

Newcastle GH 06:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Cairns Aussie

Euro lift could also have been, as often is, an option barrrier being taken out. Then market retreats!

Newcastle GH 06:18 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Cairns Aussie
Small stops were triggered which lifted the pair on small volume. Nothing more to hold it up there.

Bristol David 06:16 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Woke to find my Cable limit long of 1.7952 had been filled
Now flat..and looking more at a higher dollar

Cable off nearly 100 pips in the last 2 hours

Cairns Aussie 06:13 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Question…I notice every now and then we get a large spike followed by a reversal move, is this due to stops getting kicked out before the move in the other direction…I am referring to what just happened in EUR/USD 1 hr ago. Any view on this from you more experienced traders would be appreciated. GL/GT

melbourne farmacia 06:10 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat - good morning, yes your probably correct, but i like to watch current action with london guy's , ie quick sell off on open before rally / pop higher before sell off etc.. one of these outcomes will show direction for the day. ( still long from lower levels ) GT

ps my charts have gone down, so i'm currently blind.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:10 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
FWIW a touch of the option barrier happened before a drop on the eur/usd pair. The resistance was not taken out so now we might test the bottom if the last support is taken out at around 1.1860-70 area. I have an intraday sell signal coming up if that support is taken out IMHO. GL GT

Ldn Hat 05:53 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 05:26 Dont you think if the next test of the 1.7930 level fails to deliver we see a move to test the lows, besides technically it should go short soon IMHO

I will short at 1.7930 target 1.7850 at least

shanghai bc 05:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

NT 04:35 -- Dollar bear-rally in a major bear market is just like that..zig-zags all over the places like a drunken sailor..Anything below Usd/Chf 1.2950 may be a good buy area for a few days..And then, another zig-zag..Good trades..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:43 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Good to read your comments again Farmacia hope you are doing well. GT

hk ab nz 0.65 05:42 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
we should be careful with a very very sharp fall in aud due to all the crosses positions together in the coming 2 days....

hk ab nz 0.65 05:40 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
thanks farmacia.

QC WC 05:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, from the highs seen in USD seem reversal date was on the 26th.

melbourne farmacia 05:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ab - 05 May ( not a reversal day, just a day of interest )..

nyc sa - well 1.7955 was my banking some pips level. Bigger picture fibo being 1.8000ish, so i would wait for london dudes regarding this sell off ( stop hunt ) reversal etc.. for short term direction. Assume fibo range again. I will start selling cable once flow turns neg again. Not a great insight, just as i currently see it. GT

Brisbane L 05:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Gaps Higher On Large Buying Flow, Stops Triggered

hk ab nz 0.65 05:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
qindex, once again, the Top trades on eur.

KL KL 05:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
wow...that was a sudden spike down in cable...what is happening?

hk ab nz 0.65 05:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nice deep pocket.

hk ab nz 0.65 05:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
stop loss running.
then hit the option DNT barrier.

flu.....

nyc sa 05:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
HI Farmacia , long time no see , what 's the new cable game ? going long or short here ? do u have a target ? thnx

hk ab nz 0.65 05:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, would u mind telling us the reversal day again in May? I forgot the exact date. Thanks.

hk ab nz 0.65 05:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, would u mind telling us the reversal day again in May? I forgot the exact date. Thanks.

melbourne farmacia 04:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa - as Singapore SFX pointed out, cable still ranging between fibo points with current flow bullish. I'm still waiting for 1.7955 to print which is my system level and just above fibo level. Next few hours should help in seeing upper targets of fibo rebound etc..
( as i write cable printed my level ... good ) GT

UAE Oil man 04:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY looks like a good buy for last barrier 197xx before 20x..
BOD near in front of 194.80-193.45-192.20...Stop all if 192 goes..

nyc sa 04:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
thnx ICT ,agree with u watch till we get a sense of direction after data is released .

hong kong nt 04:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you think it is reasonable safe to range trade USD/CHF 1.27-1.32 for a while? many good trades to you..

hong kong 04:25 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
would like to know more about eur-jpy.

ICT ML 04:16 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Nyc sa....watch the aussie........it could very well sell off from these levels soon, a 50% retrace of the last plunge has stalled its recovery so far.....

other than that.....I can only say, ya don't HAVE to trade right now....I been taking probing trades and not liking the reactions, so I am done until things become more clear this week myself.

nyc sa 04:06 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   

ICT , the problem is I can't find any other pair to trade , rangesare narrowing as there isn't much trading going on , it seems traders are waiting to see the outcome of the ECB meeting cut or no cut ? then bank of England next week and the US GDP later this week .

ICT ML 03:46 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
sa...should be good but be vigilant with it.....I stopped trading it on most of my accounts due to the volitility....(that "surprise" yesterday was out of the blue even though some were long, nobody I know expected that spike)...some folks cannot handle watching their equity fluctuate wildly in real time ....hahaha

nyc sa 03:40 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ICT , ml 2:35 post , thnx for ur view on GBP/yen I am looking to go short this pair if it goes above 196 again tomrrow NY time .

SF MRZ 03:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Buying Eur/$ here. I think the market might try to run the stops up higher. Hourly chart does look down though. Back in U.S. Market

Brisbane L 03:12 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Only one thing on the Costello remark , he hasnt got a say in the matter

Brisbane L 03:04 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Aussie took a hit on Costello saying that Australian rates wouldn't necessarily follow a rise in U.S. rates comment today came after Australian CPI for March came in a bit higher than
expected even though the annual inflation rate fell from 2.4% to 2%, which is the bottom of the RBA's range a
break below 7315 would turn the pressure back to the downside.

hk ab nz 0.65 03:03 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf buying day.

Gold Coast martin 02:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
As posted before the key resistance barrier for aud is 7250 as that is the wholesale dollar level....(as posted earlier ).once this level is breached the 7150 level should be seen very very quickly....There have a few attempts in the past week to breach this level but the they did not have enough numbers behind them...one factor that may assist the breach of this level is that institutions have been downgrading their medium to long predictions over the past few weeks...further downgrades coupled with the downward bias of the euro should breach this crucial level....timee span wise it may not be until the end of the month...in the meantime lots of $ to be made on the aud as wel as euro simply buy trading the ranges as it has been the case in the past 3 to 4 days....g/l g/t

Brisbane L 02:54 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's RBNZ rates decision with economists split over likelihood of 25 bps rate hike 5.50%. some see it as a buying opportunities in AUD/NZD a move to 1.1550 first and potentially of a further dip to 1.1460 analysts at NAB recommends buying this dips

SF MRZ 02:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Tight stops just keeps getting hit.

hk ab nz 0.65 02:44 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
sp// look at the chf/jpy...so funny eh.

Sydney alimin 02:42 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
thx qindex, ur view is very much appreciated..i'll keep an eye on it

Melbourne Qindex 02:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 02:34 GMT - EUR/USD : My bias is on the down side. We have to monitor the market closely at the end of the month.

Melbourne Qindex 02:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 02:32 GMT - GBP/JPY : This cross is very volatile, better not to touch it.

Melbourne Qindex 02:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 02:31 GMT - USD/JPY : The market is still range bound for the time being. I have a feeling that it is going to tackle my weekly cycle barrier. I am bias on the down side.

ICT ML 02:35 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa......gbp-jpy gave a pretty good 4 hr sell at 196.30, so targeting the range bottom at 190.15 is pretty ambitious for the next few days. After that I don't know yet

Sydney alimin 02:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
qindex, if 1.1866 is a super magnet, does that mean it will prevent eur/usd from going beyond 1.1940/1.1950 today and possibly till the end of this week?

hk ab nz 0.65 02:32 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
qindex, full confidence of your gb/jp short unforunatelyI don't have much margin left.

ny amc 02:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
melborne.q.........what are your thoughts on usd/jpy

nyc sa 02:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone trading GBP/YEN ? can this pair possibly fall below 190 in the near future ? need a good TA . thnx .

Melbourne Qindex 02:28 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my current 5-day cycle is positioning at 1.1866. This is super magnet.

Melbourne Qindex 02:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my currebt 5-day cycle is positioning at 1.1866. This is super magnet.

Normandy Nick 02:26 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
actually sell at 1.3007

Normandy Nick 02:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I've got a sell order on usd/chf at 1.3010, square 1.3056, stop reverse 1.3066, tp 1.2960

Normandy Nick 02:15 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:42 GMT April 28, 2004
Ok, good night...i
t could " chichen out" effectively....still blured at the moment

Melbourne Qindex 02:15 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 01:59 GMT - See details in my page. EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Looking for a dip here for eur/usd this will set the tone to try to break 1.1950-60 area or go down and test the bottom. Fibo rough numbers are 1.1900-05, 1.1890-95 and 1.1870-75. Second set is 1.1875-80, 1.1850-55 and 1.1830-35. Resistance is 1.1900-10, and 1.1860-70 at the moment IMHO. GL GT

Eilat Dolphin 02:08 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nick/ Will the market chicken out above the figure on this downleg ? My guess is yes.

(Pricipalement, remplacement très precis de grandes vitrines de magasin (500 kg), grace a un appareil purement mécanique (vis d'Archimède) et un seul opérateur pour les manoeuvres dépose pose = gros avantage.)

Good night, or what's left!


LAX-LGB SNP 02:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 02:33 GMT April 27, 2004
both eurjpy and gbpjpy are well above their pivot zones ... rather early in the week but why fight agst the flow ? ;-)

i especially like usdcad and audusd daily formations right now but i'm short on usdcad since the high 1.35s so i may have to wait to buy aud$ within the 0.7339-0.7359 zone

Calabash TarHeel 01:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:45 GMT April 28, 2004
Brisbane L 01:39 GMT - AUD/USD : If it runs side by side with EUR/USD, it will have problem this week.

Dr. Q. Any guess as to how deep this problem might go?

Thanks
TarHeel

Brisbane L 01:58 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Australia's consumer inflation rate slipped to the bottom of the Reserve Bank's target range in the first quarter of 2004, helped by the recent appreciation of the local currency
The index was up 2.0% from a year earlier, lower than the 2.4% annual rise posted in the fourth quarter.
hABC

Gen dk 01:57 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane L 01:51 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex yes this is what I am thinking also

Brisbane L 01:49 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
AUSSIE Election: October Poll possible- August A Chance
Sol Lebovic, managing director of Newspoll, suspects the election will be held later in the year and October is the logical choice, allowing Howard to avoid any Iraq-related fallout from Bush's own reelection bid.ASol Lebovic, managing director of Newspoll, suspects the election will be held later in the year and October is the logical choice, allowing Howard to avoid any Iraq-related fallout from Bush's own reelection bid.

Normandy Nick 01:47 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:42 GMT April 28, 2004
I'll buy euro at 1.1895 and closed gbp/usd at 1.7890 as usd/chf touched 1.30
C'est génial ça mais c'était un brevet de quoi???

Melbourne Qindex 01:45 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 01:39 GMT - AUD/USD : If it runs side by side with EUR/USD, it will have problem this week.

Eilat Dolphin 01:42 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Nick/ looks like the E could go to 1.1895 on this very run.

- Exploitation d'un de mes brevets dans une entreprise moyenne sur presque tout le pays depuis un manoir aussi perdu qu'actif.
A présent, Red sea, Israeli side.

Brisbane L 01:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex notice the Aud is trading on the coat-tails of the Euro regardless of any good data.

hk ab nz 0.65 01:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, those commited exporters.... interesting game players on both side.

Normandy Nick 01:39 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Ok, I will close my short from 1.7920 on gbp/usd as soon as euro gets 1.1894 bid or usd/chf 1.3000 bid or if gbp gets 1.7870 to think seriously to sell dollars.

nyc sa 01:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
thnx Singapore SFX for the cable view , this pair seems to move only as of european time , not doing much now , is it just a pause ? also have a feeling it will close the month below 1.80 ,option related maybe.

Melbourne Qindex 01:36 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 01:20 GMT - See how many times we can get together.

Melbourne Qindex 01:34 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab nz 0.65 01:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
commodities look tired again somehow.

bc// can we start accumulation on aud yet?

Normandy Nick 01:30 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:22 GMT April 28, 2004
c'est marrant! where do you live now? and was you doing in such a lost place?!

Singapore Sfx 01:23 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny sa,
Hi - Just basing my view on the fact that we've taken out 50% of the 1.8140-1.7630 move - on the break above 1.7885 yday ... As people here have pointed out, in the recent past, that 50% has been a important barometer of stg minitrends.
That said, if we get below minor support in the 1.7885-90 area now, will have to re-assess the bullish view and then watch cbl's reaction on the fibo retracements. (1.7820 for a start). Good luck.

hk ab nz 0.65 01:23 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
bc// looks like apart from eur/gbp, eur/jpy, eur/chf may also wants to help to lift up the eur....

have reserved positions to long eur in this final s/t retracement for 1.23+ target.

Eilat Dolphin 01:22 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Nick/ The E on your way, sir.

7 Km S E de Livarot, vers Trun: Beauvoir. Tant on se connait. ;^)

ny amc 01:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
can someone explain to me why eur/gbp is strong here when eur/jpy eur/usd and eur/chf are all weak ?

hk ab nz 0.65 01:20 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, many of us own you many dinners...............
;) Top trades!

hk ab nz 0.65 01:18 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
jf, have u found out what's the substance in the yesterday move? THANKS!

Normandy Nick 01:18 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:12 GMT April 28, 2004
Wao! I used to lived at 20 kms de Livarot pendant 15 ans (Gacé)! funny!

nyc sa 01:12 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
singapore sfx , where would be the starting level ,i.e., strong support area in order for cable to reach 1.8150 ? shouldn't there be a stronger retracement for the bounce to happen ? thnx .

Eilat Dolphin 01:12 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Nick/ Your view has more technical legs than mine here.

Etions nous voisins lorsque je résidais en forêt au large de Livarot durant toute la dernière décennie ?

ny amc 01:11 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
long usd/jpy at 109.25.....looking for a bounce to 109.50-55

Eilat Dolphin 01:09 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
alimin/ It could reach that target, mainly because I want it to. However the 5 and 10 min stochs ""begin to suggest"" it should.

ny amc 01:05 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
took my profit on eur/jpy at 130.24 +37 pips

Sydney alimin 01:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
what's the chance of eur/usd making new high? or is 1.1940/50 level capping it well before going down again?

ny amc 01:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
yes but eur/gbp wont budge

Normandy Nick 00:59 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
amc, your trade on eur/jpy looks well engaged now :)

Maryland NewTrader 00:55 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick, I will check it out. Thank you very much.

Normandy Nick 00:50 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 00:41 GMT April 28, 2004
forex tv is just on the right of your screen, in the blue menu and yes, it's very informative and well realized, with reseaches, news, technical analyses ..etc...and also with girls who don't look too bad! have a look, but I'm telling you ,it's good!

Ga Lee 00:48 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
amc- at the bottom of the home page...

Normandy Nick 00:46 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 00:37 GMT April 28, 2004

Hi,
perso, I went short on gbp/usd at 1.7920 for 1.7865.
Euro pierced a kind of red line on my system and for now I favor the downside to 1.1895. On the other hand it has not really touched the upper barrier yet and aud/usd gave a buy signal. Usd/chf is still neutral but if it touches 1.2960 first, this will confort a dollar buying day for me. I don't mean euro will print a black candlestick at the end of the day , simply it could get a lillte lower to burst its resistance...GL/GT

ny amc 00:41 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
normandy.............where did you find forex tv and is it informative ? thanks for your feedback

Normandy Nick 00:38 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Maryland NewTrader 00:27 GMT April 28, 2004

Good! this book is the bible of the trading! I think if you read it again and again , all you will need then is to read the news (by the way I've just discovered Forex TV and GV reports, it's exellent) and also this forum. I think the most important eventually is to build up an experience and get some basic trading rules.

Eilat Dolphin 00:37 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
nICK: Hi! I am rather bullish EurUsd for the next 24 hours. We should reach the next figure by then.

Where in Normany ?

ny amc 00:31 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
normandy......tar= target

Normandy Nick 00:29 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 00:24 GMT April 28, 2004
what means "tar" ? otherwise, my system shows the square point at 131. stop around 131.10

Maryland NewTrader 00:27 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
I am very interested in learning to trade forex. I have never traded before and would like some abvice on how to go about learning the basic. I have read "Come Into My Trading Room" by Dr. Alexander Elder.

ny amc 00:24 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
normandy........i have my tar at 130.15 and .6630

Normandy Nick 00:21 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 00:16 GMT April 28, 2004
Looks like eur/jpy would have no trouble to go to 130.10 bid.

ny amc 00:16 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Just shorted eur/jpy at 130.61 and eur/gbp at .6655. Anyone disagree with these positions. feedback please.

Provo John 00:15 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
New EU Members Get Advice:Skip the Euro for now

Brisbane L 00:11 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Obviously we have totally different opinions on most thing , but try telling your view to a home owner with a 95% mortgage and prices dropping by the day , I am sure they will be very appreciative and understanding of your analysis

LTN th 00:02 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 22:03 // Not sure if I can agree that much with your views. Each market sector has its inbuilt risk or other premiums and relevant premium assesment procedures. The extreme end of the retail or consumer market has pretty stiff premiums in place. The only way to attract the needed conservative demand is to offer the customer value for money and this includes some affordable surety against eratic or inappropriate rate variations. Whatever you do it is hard to fend off the imprudent, and high rates or their prospect are more likely to result in more of them and fewer of the desirable borrowers.
I appreciate that many are frightened by the historically low rates but this is a consequence of many financial products that are generating an unprecedented amount of investment capital. If you want balance and stability in the market then the market price, ie the interest rates, must be reflective of the basic supply demand curve.

Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT April 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 3-month projection profiles. The odds are in favour of establishing short positions.

... // 1.1575* - 1.1767 - 1.1959* // ...


More extensive cycle analyses are required to examine this pair.

 




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