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Forex Forum Archive for 05/04/2004

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)toronto Dr Unken Katt 23:54 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
euryen looks long to me

Athens 23:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, no problem my friend. EUR/JPY remains in buy mode on decent corrections but even in the mid 132's it is fairly O/B for me (not a bargain to buy here although one may still get a profit, just not a bargain buy). 133.00-20 is fairly tough, 133.60-90 heavily O/B, 131.00 strong support, 129.70 also. Trading within these levels accoirdingly sounds reasonable to me. all of them valid for Wednesday until closing time. Good luck. I am off to some sleep.

GA TJ 23:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, EURJPY I just took a Short on that one. Also Sold Cable at 1.7966

Brisbane L 23:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
JP Morgan economist Andrew Pease Says window to up rates narrowing every month as election looms and that body of data needed to justify rate hike increases as election nears.

Dallas GEP 23:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry ATHENS, I had a brain MELTDOWN. I meant EUR/JPY my friend.

Athens 23:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, perhaps you had another cross in mind? I've never made any comment on EUR/AUD and I don't trade it.

Ltn th 23:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
AU rates unchanged

Dublin CK 23:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry typo "Vibrant"

Dublin CK 22:59 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dr Q,

Good analysis once again.

May I ask is it sell on rallies for cable/dollar also?

I hope Hong Kong is treating you nicely, it one of the places I have always longed to visit. It seems like such a vibrate city.

stockholm za 22:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

fwiw...
It is not every day the market is so generous to give oppertunites to set the mariton position trades...
Happy safe trades........

Dallas GEP 22:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED pound shorts @ +21 pips because usd/chf was shorting

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 22:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
and what about the usd jpy ?

Hong Kong Qindex 22:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:58 GMT May 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is now working on the upper barrier of my weekly cycle at 1.2035 // 1.2097 and the mid-point reference is 1.2066. Sell on rallies is the preferred strategy.

Dallas GEP 22:22 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OK got shorts on gbp @ 1.7992, shorts on Euro at 1.2097, short on Aussie @ 1.7310. target on pound is 1.7870, target on euro is 1.2020 and taget on Aussie is 1.7250.

Hong Kong Qindex 22:20 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 22:14 GMT May 4, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference

Set A : ... // 1.1803 - 1.1883 - 1.1962 - 1.2042 - 1.2121* // ...


Set B : ... // 1.1787* - 1.1864 - 1.1941 - 1.2019 - 1.2096* // ...


Set C : ... // 1.1763 - 1.1845 - 1.1926* - 1.2008 - 1.2090 // ...

Dallas GEP 22:12 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi ALL.

ATHENS, you are the best I know on EUR/AUD. Can you give me your view for the next 24 hours what you think HIGH and LOW on this crazy pair???????

GVI john 21:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2115…$/yen 109.35
DJIA 10,317, +3 pts…NASDAQ 1,950, +12 pts
10-yr 4.56%, +6 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


See text on GVI

Porto PJT 20:57 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Porto winner of UEFA and now on the final of Champions League, yessssssssss

Athens 20:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Indeed EUR/JPY near nmd around 133 proved an O/B case as I suggested in the morning, suitable only for contras up there.

Tor Pumpkin 20:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
jaco, 1.7971 on the matching.

nyc jk 20:15 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sure OMIL.

Wisconsin tim 20:02 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
meant 31 not 13

Wisconsin tim 19:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Out Eur/USD on Long SAR @ 1.1995
Out GBP/USD Long @ 1.1950

Total on Position = +13 pips
---- no follow through on EUR forced closing

Wisconsin tim 18:01 GMT May 4, 2004
sold eur/usd 1.2076 SAR 1.2106
bought gbp/usd 1.7888 SAR 1.7855

yes, i'm a glutton for punishment

Gen dk 19:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

TA Jaco 19:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
can someone tell me what was the high in the cable?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Islander I will do that. Thank you

JK the price was to close for me to have a fighting chance especially when another platform had it even lower but I gave it try anyway. I will ask jay for your email if that is ok with you.Thank you

st. pete islander 19:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, ask Jay for my email .... or better yet, I'll pass on a landline number. Might be able to help you in a way. If you wish, that is.
gt

nyc jk 19:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sure OMIL. I know that's how they operate, but sometimes if they are clearly off market they will put you back in the trade if you bellyache enough. gl , cheers

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
The irony is that we may have seen the top for eur/usd today and all of this stop hunting was not necessary. I may be rushing a bit these numbers and might have to post them again later. Rough numbers are 1.2040-45, 1.2020-25 and 1.1995-2000 IMHO. I will post with better details later. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:16 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
JK thanks for the suggestions. The sad part is I am about to leave this broker for another broker that practices the same thing and yes I have had similar discussion with them in the past about this but they can pretty much do what ever they want. Thanks for the help JK I really appreciated. GT

nyc jk 19:14 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, EBS low post FOMC was 53 I am told fwiw.

slv sam 19:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
1.2040/50 is the maximum we can see before 1.23+.GT

nyc jk 19:09 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - maybe someone can help you out and post the real EBS low here, anyone? If it is much higher than where you got stopped at , ie 56,57 ish I would go back to your broker and with this info and say WTF??

Bucharest Razvan 19:03 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I'm long EUR 1.2070 stop 1.1980 t/p 1.22+

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:03 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the response guys and gals as you can tell they took my stops by one pip and I have now confirmed the action thanks to you. That can only mean they were stop hunting on some systems IMO. Oh well enough of my crap. BTW I have no sell signal for eur/usd although the intraday indicators are in O/B territory and the first attempt at resistance (1.2120-30) has failed at this time. Again thanks to everyone for helping me out. GL GT

dc fxq 19:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Oops make that 1988 not '98

dc fxq 19:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 18:49 GMT Bush was only elected ONCE in 1998. He was one term, that was the last time in recent years rates were hiked and the final on came on 8/11/88 (or 11/8/88 Euro style).

houston st 18:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

unable to snag the low in eur/usd but did p/u a few in 60s, majority in 70's/80's..failure to followthru above 1.21xx is concerning, so will nurse these for now..tp above 1.2219, which is the april 8 high on my platform. gt.

OK SZ 18:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GH, hope that works out for you..thanks and gl, gt

Eilat Dolphin 18:55 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL/ HI! 48. seen, verified.

slv sam 18:54 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
do not be confused with $/cad price action...only to confuse us...BUY EURO for the next new high..I DID!GT

Newcastle GH 18:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ
You did well. I had a short Euro which had a limit @55. My platform went as low as 51 but it didn't pay me and I got stopped out for a loss. I have enquired so I'll have to see their reply to see their integrity.

Livingston nh 18:52 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Edinborough - G'span = G. WIlliam Miller - "At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack," - what economy is that

st. pete islander 18:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello, OMIL .... 1.2053

houston st 18:50 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT - watch gbp/jpy for direction in gbp/usd...only time will tell w/ mpc. gt.

london cam 18:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I have a low of 1.2057 offer. GL GT

Chicago Irish 18:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
DC FXQ:Though you would have remembered that Fed hiked on George Bush 1 prior to his re-election.History likely to repeat itself.

Chicago YM 18:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL i got 2054 as the low in the past hour

Edinburgh mike 18:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
The FED statement is a mastery of balance - in fact it is written in what should be termed the ‘language of equilibrium’ - a skill mastered by few.
This is, first and foremost, a move to a true coincident neutral bias, and has the added bonus of telling us of a future tightening bias - almost certainly in June.
It would be foolish to pre-empt the data and events which may transpire in the intervening period but assuming we continue to see the picture of a steady US recovery, I stick with my view in last month’s article that we will see the full fat tightening bias in June and the first hike in August at the earliest.
In the meantime I feel the payrolls should show a healthy 200+ on Friday.
Just remember where you heard it first !!!

OK SZ 18:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ST, yes that is a good observation. tanks

houston st 18:47 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:45 GMT - 1.2053 was the low bid on my platform, fwiw. gl/gt.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
The question was for a low within the hour for eur/usd

LAX-LGB SNP 18:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
not me OMIL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Some platforms got a good excuse there to spike the price as far as they needed and take out a lot of stops along the way IMO. Does any one have another low in their system for eur/usd that is not 1.2049? TIA

houston st 18:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

okie, today's market action reminds me of one of the first things I ever read about FX: It is a sentiment game w/ a crowd mentality where even the best players w/ the best forecasts are tricked out of good positions by the magic of price action.

stay sharp. gl/gt.

slv sam 18:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
1.23 before 1.20..let us see!GT

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
houston st - MPC meeting - Cable??

OK SZ 18:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
were are at the price levels before the annoouncement..should tell you something there

OK SZ 18:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ST, yes a friend told me about that but did not feel comfortabel with that...he has done quite well with it..just not my game..gl,gt

houston st 18:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
prices should start to thicken back up and settle down by 1900 gmt..back to range trading until Friday?

dc fxq 18:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Rate change history link. 1988 was the last time rates were raised within 6 months of a presidential election.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PRIME.txt

USA Biscuit Boy 18:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Good deal SZ. Im still waiting for AUD to dump :)

Van jv 18:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
No guts to face realities---so bottom in , BOD now---only where it dips ---1.20 zone ?

houston st 18:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

SZ - probably pretty smart..I've seen some so-called "experts" get whipsawed and double-murdered with some of those straddles due to the price action..today was a prime example of that..better to outright buy/sell like you did imho..good luck w/ the pos.

OK SZ 18:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ok out for now +25 on euro short..will sit and wait for better direction

dc fxq 18:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Clinton was in office in '96, didn't happen then and in '92 economy had taken a hit so no increase then.

OK SZ 18:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
this friday now becomes more important

Alicante RTN 18:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Believe Greenspan raised rates ahead of '96 election and it may have cost Bush Sr. a second term. FWIW.

OK SZ 18:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
chickened out at the last minute shorted at 121 though

Eilat Dolphin 18:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
TJ/ Excellent strategy to go running.

Livingston nh 18:31 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
year 2000 from Nov 99 to May 2000 -raised it a full point

houston st 18:31 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
pretty obvious the market doesn't know what to make of this news...gt.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:29 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Much ado about nothing. SZ how's that straddle working out?

GA TJ 18:29 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin, my interpretation is that the Fed will hold off for as long as possible before theyu raised rates. watching the initial reaction I would say that there are many different interpretations. WTH knows. I am going to go run a few miles and let this thing work itself out.

dc fxq 18:28 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.65 18:25 - I can not remember how long it has been since the FOMC moved rates up ahead of a presidential election. Certainly didn't in 1992 or 1996.

LAX-LGB SNP 18:28 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
interesting formation on audusd daily/weekly charts
29th apr set stage but 0.73 holds the key for 0.75 where the weekly 21 sma lies in wait

hk ooozmeeh 18:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
fxq.. i agree with u, were back to square one where in we anticipate for a FED raise.....

hk ooozmeeh 18:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
fxq.. i agree with u, were back to square one where in we anticipate for a FED raise.....

hk ab nzd 0.65 18:25 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
FOMC should simply state that due to Bush election in Nov, we will not hike till then......

Not sensible judgement on the econ. environment at all.

Gasoline alone rises from 28 to 37 this year....

Eilat Dolphin 18:25 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Thus $ neg.

Eilat Dolphin 18:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
""... at a Pace that can be measured"" isn't that fast.

dc fxq 18:21 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
total nonsense to bull EUR and GBP higher on as expected news!

Global-View GVI 18:20 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GVI 18:19 GMT May 4, 2004
FOMC Statement:

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid rate and hiring appears to have picked up. Although incoming inflation data have moved somewhat higher, long-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. Similarly, the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy actions were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

nycnycnyc 18:20 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
By miles most of Buffet's cash is parked in US Tbills.

dc fxq 18:18 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
so basically as expected.

OK SZ 18:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
I think if they do not raise rates but the statement is strong the euro goes down, but heads to the topside again

hk ooozmeeh 18:08 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
tim.. your move quite amaze me. are you betting on the cross? gl gt

LAX-LGB SNP 18:07 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg dot-bomb posting 2 articles re: Fed's neutral stance

USD going lower this week while Buffet parks his $$ overseas

Wisconsin tim 18:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sold eur/usd 1.2076 SAR 1.2106
bought gbp/usd 1.7888 SAR 1.7855

yes, i'm a glutton for punishment

OK SZ 17:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
yes

mtl gg 17:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Rate hike by Fed would be USD positive correct??

OK SZ 17:50 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
let's try this strategy..at 2:14:30 place a straddle at 15 points above/below the market at that time..risk 30 pips and depending on the severity of this statement adjust profits accordingly..

Global-View Research 17:14 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Self Indulgence - Why The Fed Should Hike (FXA)

Okay I am practical enough to not call for a Fed rate hike today. But I can't help but get a tad self-indulgent and say why the Fed should hike 25 basis points today. First of all the Fed has the Funds Rate targeted to 1.00%, a 46-year low. It really should be in a bind over having to explain why rates are still this low this late into the recovery should be guiding the current Fed policy debate among market participants. Instead the Fed is preoccupied with trying to convince markets that removing patience from the statement today does not imply any change in the Fed's urgency to tighten. And for every 1 person who dares to say the Fed is behind the curve on monetary policy, there are 9 who think the Fed has it right once again.... LINK

NYC SA 17:06 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
any views on $/chf direction ?

hk ab nzd 0.65 16:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
BB watch gold closer first.

HK Kevin 16:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, have reply your email. Really sorry I can't make it this time.
Re: USD/CAD, don't trade tonight before the FOMC meeting.
Covered my short USD/JPY from 110.40ish at 109.73 before leaving office, but my m/t short EUR/JPY looks very bad. Abandon to enter the 2nd position and place a s/l. Still seeing chance to escape at breakeven or small loss/profit.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Tell me about it AB! Commodity currencies in demand today.

hk ab nzd 0.65 16:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, something must be wrong on dlr/cad.

GA TJ 16:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Isn't the Fed Handicapping Game fun. My thoughts are no rate hike but the statement will say something to the effect of " We are moving in the direction of a rate hike in the future but current activity does not warrant such action now." Don't forget the budget deficit problem and the best cure for that is economic growth as long as inflation does not get out of control. But I'm sure Uncle Al has more smarts in that department than I do.

How will this effect the greenback. I will tell you 1 hour after the announcement.

Still flat. Not interested in selling into this nice move that happened while I was getting my Ugly Sleep.

Nottingham 16:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
some research circulating that argues that the larger an economy gets, the more sensitised it gets to rate changes and the more effect every increment increase/decrease in rates will have...the report goes on to say that a neutral US rate may not be far from 1.5/2% and that interest rates of 4% in the US may not ever be seen in a normal economic cycle for some time...the risk to the economy is that the Fed's own neutral level is too high...gl gt

OK SZ 16:06 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
my last should read with a 30 pip trailing stop..if nothing is done in 5 min. then I will cancel the order.

brisbane jeb 16:00 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ah well
if I cant see I cant trade
save money that way

Spotforex NY 15:55 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
just P/L probs here.....charts are fine.

brisbane jeb 15:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
anyone having chart problems?
mine have been down for about 20 mins

OK SZ 15:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
I will wait to the last minute before placing on order. my thinking now is to place a sell order 20 pips below the market at that time with a 30pip stop loss..will decide closer to the release

KL KL 15:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
If it is a 50% rate hike would that be $ bull....in any rate....are everyone here position to short at the 2 pm release??? or has the rise been already factored in ??? Lots of traps are in place now ....

Dublin Flip 15:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
For those interested that bond heads page is a little difficult to read...
@ futuresource there is a 30day fed funds instrument. on a monthly (medium) setting you'll be able to see the monetary settings for the past fifteeen years alot clearer.
catch you guys later on.....

Livingston nh 15:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sorry for the rants - I am watching a very profitable AUD short turn into a not good position // will see y'all later

OK SZ 15:38 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
you increase your wealth by producing, not by consuming

Livingston nh 15:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
SPOT - the good news is G'span can only serve until 2006 IF he is reappointed

dc fxq 15:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ws - personally I haven't enough hands. You know: on the one hand .... on the other hand ..... and yet again ....

clon glenn 15:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

pontotoc ws - not being a US citizen, they wouldn't give me the job. Also, the job doesn't pay very well - thanks

Livingston nh 15:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
PONTOTOC ws - did you ever hear the phrase "Whip Inflation NOW"? or maybe the Greenspan Commission - you know, the one that saved Social Security 20 years ago

Spotforex NY 15:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sorry - i am a huge Greenspan critic.....
and not a fan....my last post is confusing in the beginning...


I would like to see Greenie NOT take the fifth (term that is) at the end of June.....

Gen dk 15:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Spotforex NY 15:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
pontotoc ws -

I admit that I am am NOT a big Greenspan critic and fault him personally for the asset bubble of the late 1990's....His gross miscalulation of Y2K was a major hiccup....

however - but my doom and gloom scenario has yet to materialize as I was looking for a sub 6k dow after 9/11....I did admit my 'wrong' outlook when 8,200 was regained....

the low rate environment has buoyed the US consumer with the re-fi boom but at a cost. The US has some very tough issues to eek out and trouble lurk sout there at every turn....

I do not like Greenie, but I respect his position and his ability to repel the potential 'sky is falling' scenario to date....

Dublin Flip 15:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Not big on having opinions then mate????

USA Biscuit Boy 15:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Sold AUD/USD 0.7288.

pontotoc ws 15:24 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
all of these arm chair economist bad mouthing Greenspan. if you are so smart then why arent you head of the FED?

nyc jk 15:21 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
yeah that is a good point I think Flip. Thanks for the links, cheers.

Dublin Flip 15:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
jk the aggresiveness of the easing is not what I was at issue with. What was going on with sept 11 and the nasdaq implosion were enormous events and we weren't to know what was going to happen. My point soley lies in the fact he left settings on too long. They were emergency monetary policy setting and he then convinced the investment community (and then the public) they were here to stay. That was misplaced arrogance. If he'd raise only 1% back to 1.5% or possibly 2% he would be allowed to do nothing till next year until he had 9/12months of evidence. He had no plan B and for a risk manager that's unforgiveable.

Dublin CK 15:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks,

Links work now.

Livingston nh 15:12 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
try this LINK

Porto PJT 15:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Who is betting on Usd exposure at this moment should be closing and/or changing for the laggers.All imo.

Dublin Flip 15:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sorry guys. I'm using an old (networked) computer for my global view stuff.
I tried to link futuresource charts (ten year Tnote weekly) and the bondheads chaps's "history of the fed's rate moves"...

http://beta.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=TY&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=

http://www.bondheads.com/the_Fed.htm

saloniko 2004 nk 15:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

I didnt understand ur post to me...but i guess was for Good..

A Good one explanation about why Euro is going UP might be the New countries who are new mempers in Euroland..

A Nice locate trick..for many years to come..

nk

nyc jk 15:09 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip, I am in broad agreement with most of what you are saying with regard to Greenspan cutting rates to too low levels and keeping them there too long. However, I think criticism is valid only as to matter of degree though, not to the fact that he cut rates aggressively. The reality is that US economy was facing some serious troubles from the post equity bubble fallout, 9/11 fallout, etc and if wasn't for the agressive stimulus from fiscal policy, monetary policy and overall monetary conditions (ie weakening dollar), who knows where the economy would be right now? Of course these actions seemed to have created their own set of problems - stock market potentially as you have pointed out, potential real estate bubble, but really what choice did Greenspan have than to ease fairly agressively??

Livingston nh 15:08 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
On the links - you have to take out the Global view part

Dublin CK 15:06 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY

Ditto, thought it was my browser.

Spotforex NY 15:03 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip - each of your links from your last two posts failed on my browser...is it just me???
or the hyperlink is not working.....

Dublin Flip 15:00 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh I think I'm actually agreeing with you.
The bond market still sees risks both ways over the course of the next few years

Dublin Flip 14:59 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Mark I believed that Greenspan should have acknowledged that 1% was emergency funding and should have returned it to 2% fairly smartly a while ago to reload his monetary policy options holster. Now I'm sure no-one will know what would've happened but when a stock market is on the move it can shrug these things off as being a good thing. With everyone hooked on cheap funding (especially the stock market's overally geared hedge funds) because he left it out for too long it will be more painful now (I believe). I'm sure Al would love to have his intrest rates higher but what can he do now??? Only two months ago he was recomending to john and joan punchclock to get out of fixed mortgages for floating like they do in Britain (man what timing has that guy got?????). Anyway Mr Magoo has habit of delaying and delaying and by the time he put his foot on the break it's because he's run into the guy in front. Run off an S+P or Nasdaq chart and use this History of the Fed’s Moves on Interest Ratesto see how good his timing is. It's frightening. cheers

Porto PJT 14:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sorry, forgot to mention, 50% fibo at 1,3628 too+ 200 ma.

Livingston nh 14:55 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip - bond traders always lag inflation - even with a 6 month lag the real rate demanded by traders on the long bond does not equate to a normal 2.8 to 3.2% real rate // the rate was very high during the '80s and very low recently -- the current mentality is still skewed towards "deflation"

Porto PJT 14:54 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad hope a touch on hourly trendline ~1,3729 to sell it.

Porto PJT 14:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad, bounce on touch hourly 200 ma.

Dublin Flip 14:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Remember part of the reason inflation expectations are high is that everyone is pumped after last years 45% rally in the stock market which was largely the result of 1% stimulus and a tidal wave of tax breaks. Soon people will realise that Nirvana the band and Nirvana the economy are actually very similar. Inspired but unfortuantely prone to a little depression which can cut short their lifespans prematurely. By the time Al is ready to put a 2 at the front on his Fed Funds shingle it will recession time again. If everyone is so worried about inflation, how cometen year bonds haven't taken out last september's lows????
Yes I'm sure they to but the majority of the reaction to the inflation news is in the short end where the artificiality of the curve is.
anyway be liucky

Vilnius Phoenix 14:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
As a conclusion of opinions below is it good idea to sell $ right now ?

Minnesota Mark 14:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip

What I said was to get to the "norm" 4.5 - 5% not that he was going to do it over night. But, they have two choices, watch inflation or raise rates. You yourself just said that he should have raised a bit last year, so where does that leave him? Either way he goes someone isn't going to like it. He's sweating like icy foo-foo drink in the tropics.

HK Kevin 14:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Any news out on CAD?

boulder dat 14:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th...

i doubt we will see anything today other than a change in wording. i thing Spotforex nyc has it right. the Fed learned not to surprise the market. keep in mind we are in an election year, and very possibly will only see one rate increase this entire year.

OK SZ 14:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Flip, totally agree, good post

Livingston nh 14:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Minutes of FOMC
"the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the future." OCT 2000 -- Fed worried about energy price and USD

"the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future." NOV 2000 - still worried about inflation

the Committee consequently believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. DEC 2000 - hmmm, no intermediate step there

These guys are mortal - but they don't care about elections or positions when they panic -- two weeks after the Dec meeting they cut 50 basis points and twice again in q1 2001

Ltn th 14:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
boulder// The jury is still out. If there is a serious underlying inflation, then when rates start to rise we are likely to see a massive cascading effect as marginal profits and wages etc strive to keep up. Perhaps a gentle nudge now will test the waters and trigger a small avalanche before the overburden is catastrophically large?

Dublin Flip 14:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Anyone who thinks the Fed will be raising rates to 4.5/5.0%fed funds anytime soon probably needs a cold shower and very large whishky. These guys aren't looking to choke off a recovery or control commodity prices (including oil) through monetary policy. The sledgehammer to crack a walnut theory would have enormous ramifications for asset markets including property which would further weaken US governemnt incomes (i.e. taxes) and blow out the budget deficit even further. Yes Al should have taken his foot off the accelerator and normalized rates somewhat a year ago but he didn't and he go back in time now. He's not going to (intentionally) bring down the hole house of cards now. Normal rates are realative. Some gradual moderation of execessive stimulus to 1.75-2% while monitoring the effects are as far as he will be prepared to go this year. If an initial rate hike of 50bps saw the asset bubbles (stock and property) come under much pressure you would very quickly see the Fed reassure everyone they were finished until they saw what effect the hikes had delivered (lagging effect blah blah blah). Remember even in spet 92 Al was happy to leave rates @ 3% for eighteen months to see whether the economy could handle more medicine.

Spotforex NY 14:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh - '01 rate increase was well advertised IMHO...the rate hikes of 1994/1995 wrere brutal on the tsy dealers.....

The Fed learned from that 'mistake' in judgment and have sent a slew of warnings the past few meetings....The Fed suggested patience...but the signs are there for a rate hike....

I just do not think it will happen today....

Greenspan's job is to sing a lullaby for the markets....

Gen dk 14:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 14:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Spot - how many guys got screwed in January of 2001?

boulder dat 14:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th...

not sure how much inflation plays in on this particular figure. someone borrowed my book that describes all of these statistics. but, i really don't see inflation being that big of a player just yet. it is still fairly low, but is moving up a bit.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Wow someone couldn't wait to buy euros hey and looks like some specs joined in. Looks like the big players are still on the sidelines though so be careful prices could fly either way if size comes into this thin market.

Spotforex NY 14:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
only one (1) of the primary dealers (26 in all) of the US Tsy debt expects a rate hike - and that is expected in JUNE....

The Fed will not disrupt its primary dealers and their inventory of US debt......

dc fxq 14:25 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh - that would be ideal! by moving now they would help to erase the stigma on the FOMC that they put on it themselves by failing to raise rates quickly enough during the equity bubble.

nyc jk 14:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh - how do you figure 70% chance of a hike today? none is priced into fed funds and the vast majority of economists/analysts not expecting a hike at this meeting?

Minnesota Mark 14:20 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh

Thinking about it, you may be right on that .25 this afternoon. That would be the only way they could attempt to ease into it.

slv sam 14:19 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
euro is a buy in any dip..let us go for 1.23 this week!GT

Livingston nh 14:18 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
fxq - there is a 70% chance of a 1/4 point hike this afternoon

Minnesota Mark 14:16 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Old "Bubbles" Greenspan has been digging himself a hole now for a few years. Now they have waited while the economy has chugged along. In order to get the interest rates back to a "norm" 4.5-5% they are going to have to take the risk of shutting off consumer spending or wait and let inflation run rampant. It will be interesting to see which way they pick. I doubt we will see a .25% increase, will be at least .50% and sooner than people may think.

Ltn th 14:16 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Boulder// I wonder if some of the supposedly good figures we may see are driven by less desirable aspects of inflation? A bit like the good bacteria and the bad?

Livingston nh 14:16 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Factory orders jumped 4.3% in March and big revisions to prior months in most catagories - this confirms ISM and employment data - the Fed's industrial production figures for March were understated and willl likely be revised higher on May 14

Gen dk 14:15 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney alimin 14:14 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat, i think market will wait for 2 pm NY time

dc fxq 14:12 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh - key point being "if". like the ECB I feel the FOMC, like the ECB are far too patient before taking necessary action as needed as they so often shown in the past.

Perhaps a shift to a more frequent cycle of meetings ala ECB, MPC etc might be a better approach.

boulder dat 14:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
From Dismal Scientist.....
March factory orders blew by expectations rising 4.3%, driven by a strong upward revision to March durable goods orders (from 3.4% to 5.0%).

this is much better than expected, and yet the dollar is having a very tough time making any significant progress.

Livingston nh 14:05 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq - I don't know that they have yet but this Fed always (with an 1988-90 exception) responds in Panic Mode // see my comments on Financial Forum // you'll know if the statement jumps to inflation risk today - we could see an intermeeting move if employment and CPI for April are high -- the Fed says Capacity Utilization is focus indicator - they have weekly figures that tell them what next week's monthly figure is likely to be

dc fxq 13:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nh - precisely why do you perceive the Fed has gone into a panic mode?

Livingston nh 13:52 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq - the expectation that the Fed will merely move to balance does not apply when the FOMC goes into panic mode - G'span tenure is running out and some members may not buy into the productivity and core scams that G'span preaches if there is a sense inflation is starting - lags are key to monetary policy to these folks --- so when do they start to move if inflation is already here// the regional bank members may be getting a bit uncomfortable w/ a 1% rate -- history does not bear out the belief that Fed prepares the market and is gradual in its responses

OK SZ 13:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ST, yes isn't that something..will have to see how this baby closes..

MiddleEast Mr 13:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Where is the GBP heading?

houston st 13:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
check out 200 dma on eur/usd; usd/jpy; gold; dollar index...

OK SZ 13:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
yes my wife also:) mine always wants more:) me too on the sidelines..

Milan ED 13:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

Deat Traders, what time do u expect the EUR and cable sell-off ? (how many hous ahead of the fed announcement) i believe it can start at around 4.00 BST.....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, mj time, laterz.

houston st 13:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

sz - that's what my wife, the trading goddess, keeps telling me..these past two weeks have been pretty good and I'm afraid she will expect this all the time..I am on the sidelines for now..waiting for market-moving type of news, and staying out of event risk (and harms) way..gl/gt.

dc fxq 13:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
I am somewhat puzzled by the focus on the FOMC rate announcement (14:15 ET 18:15 GMT). It is a foregone conclusion there will not be an increase and certaintly no cut. It is equally factored into the markets that any shift in "leaning" will go to a balance between inflationary/deflationary pressure (a bit absurd since the recent run of data strongly suggests greater infaltionary than deflationary pressure).

So where is the impetus for a major move higher in EURUSD or GBPUSD should the consensus opinion be realized?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
at least, we need to give jpy crosses a break.

Vilnius Phoenix 13:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Do you expect rebound after FED decision ?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Make me be the nimble one......

short eur again 1.2090.

Another tight s/l for day trade.

OK SZ 13:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ST, yes indeed but profit is profit..makes the day better:) hard sitting and waiting for good entries..should be an exciting one around 2pm..gl, gt to you:)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:27 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nk, I remember a special day during my "naive period" of trading prior 911......

I have no idea why eur suddenly drops from .90 to .88xx....

for no special reason during mid-night (NY session).....

Hope you have a safe trip on eur.

houston st 13:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   

OK SZ 13:16 - good morning; had a pretty wide tp limit order in for overnight and got hit; eur/usd was trading @ 1.1930 area when I put in scale-up sells on my length @ 1.2025-1.2050; I never thought I would be upset for taking profit; no opportunity to reload either; watching eur/usd for now & looking to sell usd/jpy on any decent rebound on econ news; gl/gt.

slv sam 13:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 19:26 GMT April 26, 2004
Buy $/cad here at 1.3480/85 target 1.39+ stop 1.3280.GT

profits realized.GT

LDN SAM 13:18 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Any specific buyg pulling EUR?? Or thin mkt conditions?

OK SZ 13:16 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
boy I had put an order in to buy euro at 1.1920 last evening and missed it by a few ticks, woke up this morning and as they say the boat left without me:( hopefully we get a nice pullback today after the announcement..

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:12 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, any current thoughts?

slv sam 13:10 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
may be it is wise to remember that it is exactly 6 month when euro started to appreciate out of control almsot 14 big figures...if this to be repeated (recall similar market mood!), we shall see 1.34+ by end of June...GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:04 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Moving stops again to secure profits next resistance is around 1.2120-30 with fibo around 1.2140-50 IMHO. GL GT

slv sam 12:47 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
euro bulls have to be patient till Friday! I am expecting to see 1.23 level on Friday!GT

Gen dk 12:20 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bucharest Razvan 12:19 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
lol.. thanks jk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, sidenote, possible mj tonight for me.

nyc jk 12:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
apparently it is a group of retail margin traders in hk that these guys spend an inordinate amount of time talking about....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:12 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, better keep an eye not to see eurjpy could make a key reversal today.

Bucharest Razvan 12:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
c9? forgive my ignorance, but what's that? ;)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:59 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, from jf, if asian CB buys from 1.1930 today, I think 1.1950-1.1980 reasonable.

nyc jk 11:57 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
do you guys actually make trading decisions based on what the "c9" are doing or is that some sort of joke?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
I sell dlr/jpy.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:52 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, I c.

hong kong nt 11:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
AB -- as Euro has already relieved some 10% overbought (1.293 / 1.1 = 1.176), i prefer to buy on dips esp this is going against c9...

GVI john 11:31 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]view.com
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2060…$/yen 110.00
DJIA +21 pts… 10-yr 4.50%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
It appears that stop-loss orders above the eur/$ 1.20 line have been one reason behind the euro rally a short while ago. It’s not a profound observation, but a lot of the dollar longs had started to become a bit stale. Either the unit rises or the market gradually will nibble away at resting stops. The dollar is still behind the eight ball when the cost of carry is factored in.

Odds are from here that this will be a cautious session as the outcome of the FOMC meeting is awaited later. There is virtually no chance for a change in interest rates, but everyone expects the central bank to start to lay the groundwork for a move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Two items of concern vis-à-vis the policy statement for the markets will be the FOMC views on the employment situation and on prices. It is unlikely that they would change policy based on a single employment report, so any insights they may have into future trends will be closely monitored. Also rising prices can no longer be ignored. Just Monday the prices paid component of the ISM PMI rose to 88 from 86 in March. This was its highest level since 1979. Furthermore, oil prices seem to make new highs almost daily. A study out today suggests that rising gasoline prices are likely to have a significant impact on future vehicle purchase preferences.

A stronger than expected rise in the April U.K. CIPS PMI to 55.1 from 53.7 is likely to have solidified the case for a rise in rates to 4.25% on Thursday from 4.0%. A 25bp hike is widely anticipated. The European Central bank will likely hold steady on Thursday. On balance these are likely a modest weight on the dollar at the moment. The Eurozone March unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.8%.

The FOMC decision will set the stage for Non-farm payrolls on Friday. There is growing room for disappointment on this figure, in light of the expectations that have been built around a single point outcome in March. The markets are set up for an increase on the order of 175-200K in the month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia met on Tuesday. Its decision will be announced Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. No rate change is expected. The March Balance on Goods and Services trade deficit was A$1.986 bln vs.-A$1.728 bln in February.
CALENDAR
TUESDAY, May 4, 2004
14:00 GMT- US- Mar Factory Orders: vs. +0.2% in Feb, see +2.1%

18:15 GMT- US- FOMC decision: no change expected

WEDNESDAY, May 5, 2004
JPN- HOLIDAY – Children’s Day
23:30 GMT- AUS- Outcome of RBA meeting
01:30 GMT- AUS- March Building Approvals vs. +3.2%
07:50 GMT- GER- Apr Unemployment: vs. +23K (SA) and -120K (NSA)
08:00 GMT- EUR- Apr Services PMI: vs. 54.4 in Mar
UK- 2-day Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting begins
12:15 GMT- CDA- International Reserves
11:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
14:00 GMT- US- Apr Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI: vs. 65.8 in Mar

THURSDAY May 6, 2004
01:30 GMT- 1Q04 Retail Trade vs. +2.6%
08:30 GMT- UK- Apr Services PMI: vs. 58.7 in Mar
10:00 GMT- GER- Mar preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +0.5% in Feb
11:00 GMT- UK- Bank of England MPC decision: risk of a 25bp rate hike
11:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council meeting decision
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
18:00 GMT- US- Mar 16 FOMC minutes

FRIDAY, May 7, 2004
AUS- RBA Monetary Policy Statement
10:00 GMT- GER- Mar preliminary Industrial Output
11:00 GMT- CDA- Apr Employment Report
Jobs vs. -13,300, see +12,000
Rate vs. 7.5%, see 7.4%
12:30 GMT- US- Apr Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. 308,000 in Mar, see +175,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.7% in Mar, see 5.7%


hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
anyone interested in establishing eur/jpy longs?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:29 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
It would be more interesting if tomorrow is not a jap holiday.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Let's see 109 dlr/jpy first b4 anything happen?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, did u try to sell this dangerous eur above 1.2070?

Nottingham Daniel 11:13 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY – trying to test an uptrendline – 109,80 – if this broken the bulls could fail – if the support holds then we could see 110.60 – Loss of the support could see 109.00 – note that Japan has a holiday

Nottingham 11:09 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 11:00 GMT

Neither cable nor euro are o/b as yet and with US rates later today, it all means euro can quite easily finish at 1.19 or 1.22. With so many permutations, short term traders are probably best taking a reactive stance to order placing today...gl gt

Nottingham Daniel 11:07 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Euro/$ has broken through the long term outer trendline, and looks like prices are forming higher highs and lows – it looks as the bulls are fcusing on 1.207X area after a pullback may be in order to the inner – uptrendline - buying on dips in this area could be considered

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:06 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
a break of 109.65 10 dma for dlr/jpy is not a nice thing.

Gen dk 11:06 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

houston st 11:05 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
good day all; looks like I tp on eur/usd overnight, and my usd/chf short was covered mechanically as well; no opinion on usd/jpy at the moment; watching the continued assault of eur/usd upward, and waiting for a pullback to reenter. gl/gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:04 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The trading reference after expansion is as follow :-

... // 1.1712 - 1.1804 - 1.1895* - 1.1987 - 1.2079 // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 10:05 GMT May 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 3-month projection is as follow :-

... // 1.1712 - 1.1895* - 1.2079 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:02 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:05 GMT May 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 3-month projection is as follow :-

... // 1.1712 - 1.1895* - 1.2079 // ...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
When will see dlr/jpy rate hike eventually..........

could some exp. ones tell me how long have they adopted to this 0 rate policy? THANKS.

Oakland Daimyo 11:00 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Notty how right you are. Got caught in last nights Cable sell uptick strat. Will short again if 1.79 level fails.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:59 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, tomorrow is your crucial day....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
jf, ic.

I was just checking, eur/jpy longer term chart.

Seems the price is making big pennants/contracting triangles.
First Top 140.87
Then Bottom 124.15
Second Top 139.03
Second bottom 125.82

140.87-139.03 = 184 pips
125.82-124.15 = 167 pips....

Let's see how this triangle develops.

Nottingham 10:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Since there has not yet been any follow-up the below is still appropriate:

Nottingham 13:34 GMT April 26, 2004
fwiw...a report circulating (don't ask for source) draws attention to the fact that euro can reach 1.2045/60 without too heavily damaging the prospects for bears...a consolidation above that zone, however, would then make euro "innocent 'til proven guilty"...essentially a bottom will have been formed and, in order to change the situation back to a bearish one, it would require proactivity from the bears i.e. key supports would need to be taken out as it would no longer simply be a case of selling upticks...gl gt

Oakland Daimyo 10:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Looks like were gonna chop around here for awhile. Standing aside. Will be back later.

sarasota jf 10:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ab also asian cb was buying 1.1930 area so u know they will sell at some point try to help keep a range so eurusd does not run away from them- gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
jf, thanks too. Guess u must be v. busy today.

Finally, someone provide us more liquidity.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:47 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nk, thanks.

have u joined some eur bulls last week when the key day reversal seen?

sarasota jf 10:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
ab - buy in morning (done) sell in afternoon (still to come) - gbp up on british telecom deal/numbers - lehmans/citl buying euryen invest type - i am not watching too closely but athens has it covered very technical trade patterns.. gl . back in 2-3 weeks

Oakland Daimyo 10:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Please note: strictly working USD buying campaigns but have recently traded small tests of the other direction with moderate success. I still favor USD but believe it could be time for some correction giving us another chance at buying dollars at a more favorable level. However, USD bulls have been quite strong this year and cannot rule them out (trend in their favor short-term)

saloniko 2004 nk 10:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..


USD/CHF...seems will test 1.2650 again...But for me the low of USD/CHF need to be test again and again B4 ..B sure that the BIG $ship WANT to reverse..cos the point is where really $ want to be..(For example around 1.15 or 1.35++)

hk ab have a nice month !

nk

Helsinki iw 10:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Was on the phone to an ex-collegue just now, who had a
very simplistic view on the dollar, maybe also quite accurate:
"If Buffet is advising Kerry and Kerry is gaining in the polls,
would you want to hold dollars ?".

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
jf, what do u see on eur today?

Athens 10:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Nice technical price moves today in all pairs. I am out now, have a good trading day.

Oakland Daimyo 10:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks Athens, USD/CHF support comes in 1.2829/23 here

slv sam 10:38 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
IMHO e/$ trend reversed last week and now we are heading to 1.23 level where possibility increses for all time high..... 1.35??GT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
think the dlrjpy worth a go....

Athens 10:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
My moderate reistance in EUR/$ at 1.2075 remains intact and could cap the upside for a while. $/CHF next support 1.2825.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
commitment to blast USD?

we can even ride with all the bits to hit 1.2080.

Then, see who is there.

citi is still on the sell side with s/l 121

Oakland Daimyo 10:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM-- I agree w/ you about USD/CAD yesterday, however current buy/sell pressure as measured by Demand Index and OBV do not suggest this. Just sharing what I see. 1.3663 Fractal Bottom is impt support.

Oakland Daimyo 10:31 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Looks like sharks are coming out to hunt. ATR volatility spike higher.

Chicago YM 10:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
also oversold

Chicago YM 10:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad is a good buy if 3660 area holds

Oakland Daimyo 10:29 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: I have sell signal on USD/CHF under 1.2880, this one will move quick based on current buy/sell pressure and supply/demand imbalance.

Oakland Daimyo 10:15 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
USD index 89.95 must hold for USD buyers, if not we will see much more correction in USD before buying operations would be advisable. Those late to the party train in GBP/USD and EUR/USD can find short USD/CAD under 1.3680 w/ stop above 1.3740 favorable. Tgt 1.3550/ 1.35 Expecting USD bulls to give a tough fight, however, short squeeze does not appear to be over for the time being.

QC WC 10:13 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, any change in currencies directions?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks viies.

Athens 09:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
$/CHF finally cleared the way and EUR/$ rallied. Moderate resistance 1.2075.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:52 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Moved stops at this point to protect profit I believe the resistance coming up at 1.2070-80 area is strong IMHO.

Tokyo Jon 09:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
The focal points are probable values where buying and selling will increase. they have the highest probabilty of being targeted and reached. The maket is currently tackling my estimated high and if broken should reach 1.2064 where the selling pressure exsists and would then retrace to the lower focal point at 1.2011, droping this price back within my normal trading range and giving it a good chance to close near my expected closing value at 22gmt.

Taken from ealier today
Tokyo Jon 02:17 GMT May 4, 2004
Eurusd(1.1941) Daily probable range
High: 1.2037
Low: 1.1906
Close:1.1966
focusing on the low end, High probablity of play around 1.1905, +38/-16 giving first focal point at 1.1943 and second focal point at 1.1890.
At the high end we have the level 1.2026, +38/-16 which gives us third focal point at 1.2011 and fourth point at 1.2064
odds in favor of sell initially, and then reverse into a buy later during uk/us session.

slv sam 09:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sold $/y here at 110.10 target 108 s/l 110.60.GT

Tallinn viies 09:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:11 - no Im not.
I was planning to sell it near 1,2000 but hourlty stochastic crossed from low levels I decided to wait and see how things develop near 1,2020. now will sell at 1,2080 or buy near 1,1980 fwiw

Redmond Bill 09:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Athens, fyi I brought some EUR/$ today.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
1.2050 comes sooner than expected.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
If this USD bear trend does come as anticipitated, aud/nzd is a big short towards 1.10-1.1100.

Athens 09:41 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Couple of things holding EUR/$ back at the moment: $/CHF resilience around 1.29 and the fairly O/B EUR/JPY.

Mumbai Mitali 09:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
"Trend is your friend"- Trendline has been broken .
Is the Dollar's uptrend coming to an end !!!!!!!!!

Gen dk 09:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Now it's crosses time.

Athens 09:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
With the medium term resistance line now broken above 1.1990 the high probability is that a EUR/$ medium term bottom must already be in place at 1.1750-60.

van Gecko 09:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
This is a 'do or dive' week for the Dollar..
the Dollar diving below usdx 90 at weeks end could see Dollar bears singing "Sayonara dollar..go take a Siesta" in May..


Helsinki iw 09:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Intraday we are a bit o/b, so there might be some backing and
filling until the US joins the party. Probably the market will
start to wait for Sir Alan, but I think we have seen the weak
side. IMHO

Vilnius george 09:25 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk goody 09:07
Not 9 countries , but 10 new members has joined to EU.
That's why eur and gbp is going up lol

Vilnius george 09:24 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hk goody 09:07
Not 9 countries , but 10 new members has joined to EU.

Tokyo Jon 09:24 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Dollar strengthens before Fed meet
4 May 2004, Daily Mail

THE greenback got a boost on evidence of higher inflationary pressures ahead of today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve to discuss monetary policy.

While no change in interest rates is expected this time, the markets will be looking at the statement from the Fed, headed by Alan Greenspan, for hints as to timing of future rises.

Article from This is Money,UK

LAX-LGB SNP 09:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 02:56 GMT May 4, 2004
looking to buy eurjpy to complement overnight eurusd
GL GT everyone :-) have fun

... missed the entry order by a measly 3 bps ... shucks !!!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
key is still quite lie on dlrcad.....

Helsinki iw 09:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ The daily reversal on EUR/USD last thursday seems to
have worked well: the euro is looking quite bid and has broken
a descending trendline, as well as trading above the daily
bollinger midpoint. There is easily room to 1,2160/70 now,
before some consolidation could be seen. IMHO

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:22 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
but eur/gbp down and eur/chf up.....

hm....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
viies, guess u have SAR the eur, am I right?

I s/l the eur.
think momentum can go as high as 1.2080 and 1.2050 should be within hrs.

hk goody 09:07 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
does the movement triggered by the 9 countries joining EU curr? weekly long put a ceiling on 1.2300.....
does anybody got an outlook on NY session?

hong kong nt 09:03 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
GBP upside target 1.7930/50...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:02 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Next resistance for eur/usd is around 1.2050-60 and 1.12120-30 for now this move has enough strength to reach 1.2080 IMHO. GL GT

hk goody 09:01 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
there is a strong ceiling on 1.2050 and followed 1.2100....would EUR test that during NY open?

hk goody 08:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hello friends.....
whats the outlook on euro short, specially new york session,
any data?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:47 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sp, 38.....

slv sam 08:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:43 GMT April 29, 2004
closed short euro and revesed target 1.2070.GT

was good decision!GT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sp, dunno but my eur s/l is v. tight this time.

could be seen soon in mins. :)

sgp sp 08:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks ab....how far up will they buy it?

gl & gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:44 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sell eur 1.2015 tight s/l.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sp, it was c9 buying gbp for higher yields.

QC WC 08:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel, GBP now above 1.7825

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
The moment of truth for eur/usd let see if it takes out the T/L at around 1.2005-15 area. Good data from Europe has new buyers for this pair and it is dancing right now at the first fibo (1.1995-2005) with the other number looking like this 1.2070-80 and 1.2140-50 IMHO. GL GT

TelAviv DOR 08:34 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
does the GBP/$ starts a revers (up) or is it time to short here 1.7844?

KL KL 08:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Short squeeze is on for $ bears....now moving towards 3 resistance....yippie i am shortin there

sgp sp 08:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, where r u? thought I asked abt the C9 sentiment towards gbp/usd?

gl & gt 2 u :)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:57 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
IMO
although gbp/usd move up from 1.7696 until 1.7786 if look hourly chart still not yet give buy signal for confirmation. lagging is too much. if price move down from here (1.7786) that's mean be covered by bigger cyclic (4 hours chart) because 4 hours chart is on the sell signal. also if we see RSI-9 give us bearish divergence.
ussually worked.

sgp sp 07:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks ab.....byron and I are both watching it....4th try?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
And this is the final call for the dinner with qindex this Fri. If u are interested, plz contact me thru Jay.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:46 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sp, the gb/jp is running towards your number.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
viies, I see short squeeze at this moment on eur.

but seems long chf is even better.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
be carefull.. now the key number is at 1.7780 or 1.7805 for sell.
price is on the sell signal... funny if move uip on the sell signal..that's mean will down soon. IMO

Ldn Hat 07:36 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 07:30 Thanks ;-)

Tallinn viies 07:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning.
as long as last week high 1,2015/20 holds Im euro seller. target 1,18sh

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Rosebery..
GBP/usd
· Based on hourly chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.7689
Entry level sell : 1.7736 or 1.7786
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.7625
Entry level sell : 1.7731 or 1.7807 or 1.7854
· Based on daily chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.7473
Entry level sell : 1.7940 or 1.8355 or 1.8428
· Based on weekly chart : is on the buy signal for target 1.8188 or 1.8428
Entry level buy : 1.7534 or 1.7354
Eur/usd
· Based on hourly chart : is on the buy signal for target 1.1996
Entry level buy : 1.1914 or 1.1907
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.1795
Entry level sell : 1.2030
· Based on daily chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.1776
Entry level sell : 1.2140 or 1.2259
· Based on weekly chart : is on the buy signal for target 1.2330 or 1.2884
Entry level buy : 1.1831 or 1.1776
Usd/Jpy
· Based on hourly chart : is on the buy signal for target 110.57
Entry level buy : 110.10
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the buy signal for target 110.78
Entry level buyl : 110.13 or 109.35
· Based on daily chart : is on the sell signal for target 108.42 or 107.87 or 105.50
Entry level sell : 111.53
· Based on weekly chart : is on the sell signal for target 107.66 or 103.50
Entry level sell : 111.74 or 112.19
Usd/chf
· Based on hourly chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.2937
Entry level sell : 1.3038
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the buy signal for target 1.3056 or 1.3119
Entry level buy : 1.2884
· Based on daily chart : is on the buy signal for target 1.3197
Entry level buy : 1.2981 or 1.2759 or 1.2710
· Based on weekly chart : is on the sell signal for target 1.2693 or 1.2193
Entry level sell : 1.3201
Aud/usd
· Based on hourly chart : is on the buy signal for target 0.7230 (done)
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the sell signal for target 0.7139
Entry level sell : 0.7245 or 0.7300
· Based on daily chart : is on the sell signal for target 0.7105
Entry level sell : 0.7400 or 0.7717
· Based on weekly chart : still wait and see
Gold
· Based on 4 hours chart : is on the sell signal for target 377.60
Entry level sell : 389.30 (done) or 401.00
· Based on daily chart : is on the sell signal for target 376.90
Entry level sell : 401.00 or 404.25 or 425.60
· Based on weekly chart : is on the buy signal for target 407.20 or 426.80
Entry level buy : 387.40 (done)

Nottingham Daniel 07:30 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Source: Deutsche Bank

April was not a good month for medium-term traders.
For the whole month, the dominant opinion was that
the euro, although weak at the moment, was not too
far away from a bottom. A cursory review of the three
and six-month forecast from most of the investment
banks, reflects the same schema of a near-term low
somewhere ahead of $1.15 and a rally back towards
the high thereafter. The problem for these traders was
that each of their attempts to buy the single-currency
on dips ended with the embarrassing concession of a
new low within days.

This week’s collection of viewpoints has not been so
one-sided; both importers and exporters appear to
have opted for the more conservative hedging
strategy. This meant a polarisation of opinion within
the survey sample – exporters grew more bullish and
importers, more bearish - but one that nevertheless
resulted in a net increase in optimism. The Bull/Bear-
Index®, our unique measure of overall bullishness, is
therefore slightly higher compared to last week. As the
euro is also slightly higher over the period, one
could assume that demand from medium-term
accounts lies behind the recovery.
Medium-term traders have called for a ‘time-out’,
but we believe that the return of a more opinionated
sample will probably require just a week or so of
price consolidation. Thereafter, they will
undoubtedly retry their dip-buying strategy. Sadly,
from the sentiment data alone, there is little to
suggest that this is the right one. The only buying
interest over the last five weeks has come from this
group. But their demand has been sporadic and
temporary. Over the same time, notwithstanding a
number of sizeable rebounds, the euro has
relentlessly pursued its drift lower. The current
survey simply says that nothing has changed.

Nottingham Daniel 07:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank – Take For Today

EUR USD (1.1945) The ISM survey data is one of those monthly
economic numbers that one usually becomes aware of only on the day that it is due (sometimes only after the release). Especially when the figure is broadly in line with market expectations, as was the case yesterday, one expects to see little market reaction. Yet, the publication provoked a swift response – in both directions – that covered practically the entire day’s range in the space of quarter of an hour. Finally, however, the euro closed little changed on the day. Our own EUR-Sentiment Survey offered few new insights into the near-term prospects for the single-currency. As has been the case over the last five weeks, oscillations in the spot price could be closely linked to the almost whimsical preferences of the medium-term crowd: when they become more bullish the euro rises and vice versa. Although there was no return to the aggressive dip-buying that characterised the month of April, there was a small net increase in optimism and a small rise in the euro. Thus one must conclude that there is still no new long-term buying interest. For the moment, we continue to monitor the 1.1810 – 1.2000 congestion area, from which a false break has already been registered at the upper border. The potentially bearish consequences of this development will only be drawn below 1.1900, in which case, the euro would conceded a minimum fall back to the lower border, if not lower (1.1730/40). A renewed exit to the congestion via the upper boundary would diminish the likelihood of a bearish
conclusion. Indeed, a break above 1.2040 would trigger gains to 1.2180.

USD JPY (110.30) The dollar produced another neutral session yesterday. In Asia this morning, it has clung to a very tight 25-pip range. We suspect that, at least among daytraders, the short selling strategy remains the favoured approach. In this context, one could expect some daring offers in case of a move to marginally higher highs, e.g. at 111.10. Thereafter, as stop-loss buying kicks in, supply will come only at a premium. We are looking for resistance only at 112.20 and 115.00. The latter remains our current objective. The limit to the bullish is fixed at 109.50 for the moment. However, the critical point to the downside is now seen at 109.25.

EUR JPY (131.75) The cross simply re-traded the previous day’s range on Monday. This time round, however, it settled near the lower end of the price span. Overhead, we still note a tough hurdle in the 132.70/85 zone. A break there is necessary to open a bullish perspective to as high as 135.65. On the downside, supports are still left at 130.90 and at 129.85. The critical point stands at 129.40 now.

EUR GBP (0.6735) The euro’s recent gains have all but filled the immediate upside potential. In order to signal a near-term upward extension (0.6940), it must now overstep the 0.6765 mark. In the meantime, it will benefit from support at 0.6695 and at 0.6650. The latter should be considered as critical, as a violation of this threshold would trigger a fresh slide back to the low (0.6735, poor support).

GBP USD (1.7735) Yet another neutral session for the Cable. However, it continues to hold below 1.7825, the risk-reward limit of our bearish scenario. Thus we adhere to our outstanding target at 1.7495. The relative calm of the last few sessions hides the fact that there are few reliable supports nearby; only the points 1.7660 and 1.7565 emerge as points where short-term players might step in t buy dips. On the upside, a stabilization will only be achieved following a break above 1.7935.

AUD USD (0.7220) Yesterday was a non-event for the AUD. The current objective remains 0.7105. This target was missed by just 20-pips during the latest decline, but we already begin to doubt whether the ultimate demand at this point will be as good as we originally thought. Do not be too surprised by an overshooting to the downside of 10- or 20-pips. Flimsy support stands at 0.7170 for today. The risk-reward limit to the bearish scenario is unchanged at 0.7260. But a reliable stabilisation would now be achieved with a break above 0.7330.


Nottingham Daniel 07:26 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank – Take For Today

EUR USD (1.1945) The ISM survey data is one of those monthly
economic numbers that one usually becomes aware of only on the day that it is due (sometimes only after the release). Especially when the figure is broadly in line with market expectations, as was the case yesterday, one expects to see little market reaction. Yet, the publication provoked a swift response – in both directions – that covered practically the entire day’s range in the space of quarter of an hour. Finally, however, the euro closed little changed on the day. Our own EUR-Sentiment Survey offered few new insights into the near-term prospects for the single-currency. As has been the case over the last five weeks, oscillations in the spot price could be closely linked to the almost whimsical preferences of the medium-term crowd: when they become more bullish the euro rises and vice versa. Although there was no return to the aggressive dip-buying that characterised the month of April, there was a small net increase in optimism and a small rise in the euro. Thus one must conclude that there is still no new long-term buying interest. For the moment, we continue to monitor the 1.1810 – 1.2000 congestion area, from which a false break has already been registered at the upper border. The potentially bearish consequences of this development will only be drawn below 1.1900, in which case, the euro would conceded a minimum fall back to the lower border, if not lower (1.1730/40). A renewed exit to the congestion via the upper boundary would diminish the likelihood of a bearish
conclusion. Indeed, a break above 1.2040 would trigger gains to 1.2180.

USD JPY (110.30) The dollar produced another neutral session yesterday. In Asia this morning, it has clung to a very tight 25-pip range. We suspect that, at least among daytraders, the short selling strategy remains the favoured approach. In this context, one could expect some daring offers in case of a move to marginally higher highs, e.g. at 111.10. Thereafter, as stop-loss buying kicks in, supply will come only at a premium. We are looking for resistance only at 112.20 and 115.00. The latter remains our current objective. The limit to the bullish is fixed at 109.50 for the moment. However, the critical point to the downside is now seen at 109.25.

EUR JPY (131.75) The cross simply re-traded the previous day’s range on Monday. This time round, however, it settled near the lower end of the price span. Overhead, we still note a tough hurdle in the 132.70/85 zone. A break there is necessary to open a bullish perspective to as high as 135.65. On the downside, supports are still left at 130.90 and at 129.85. The critical point stands at 129.40 now.

EUR GBP (0.6735) The euro’s recent gains have all but filled the immediate upside potential. In order to signal a near-term upward extension (0.6940), it must now overstep the 0.6765 mark. In the meantime, it will benefit from support at 0.6695 and at 0.6650. The latter should be considered as critical, as a violation of this threshold would trigger a fresh slide back to the low (0.6735, poor support).

GBP USD (1.7735) Yet another neutral session for the Cable. However, it continues to hold below 1.7825, the risk-reward limit of our bearish scenario. Thus we adhere to our outstanding target at 1.7495. The relative calm of the last few sessions hides the fact that there are few reliable supports nearby; only the points 1.7660 and 1.7565 emerge as points where short-term players might step in t buy dips. On the upside, a stabilization will only be achieved following a break above 1.7935.

AUD USD (0.7220) Yesterday was a non-event for the AUD. The current objective remains 0.7105. This target was missed by just 20-pips during the latest decline, but we already begin to doubt whether the ultimate demand at this point will be as good as we originally thought. Do not be too surprised by an overshooting to the downside of 10- or 20-pips. Flimsy support stands at 0.7170 for today. The risk-reward limit to the bearish scenario is unchanged at 0.7260. But a reliable stabilisation would now be achieved with a break above 0.7330.


Tallinn viies 06:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
bc - I asked once what is your feeling about Chinas revaluation. who are winners and who are loosers?

MONACO OGA 06:51 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 04/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1960), 10 pips lower than Monday's opening. The market as expected was very quiet and hovered inside 1,1920-1,1985. The US ISM data for March went out as expected, while the EURozone PMI manufacturing index shows a slight improvement in european companies confidence. Japan is still closed (today and tomorrow), later today we have the FED's policy setting meeting (no change but shift towards a neutral bias expected). The general feeling of the market seems to have turned in favour of the european currency again, with Warren BUFFET reiterating his EUR/USD bullish stance a couple of days ago. Supports at 1,1920 and 1,1850, with resistances at 1,2050-60 then 1,2170 (strong one). Overall we are still neutral on the medium term, but we'll be favouring buy on dips strategy.

Data out today:
UK M4 money supply Mar expected 0.5% 08.30 GMT
UK net consumer credit Mar expected 1.9B 08.30 GMT
UK CIPS PMI manufacturing April expected 54.0 08.30 GMT
EURozone unemployment rate Mar expected 8.8% 09.00 GMT
EURozone PPI Mar expected 0.6% 09.00 GMT
US factory orders Mar expected 2.4% 14.00 GMT
US FOMC rate decision expected unchanged at 1% 18.15 GMT

Gold at 388.00, with WTI June at 38.23

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 110,40) 30 pips higher than Monday. The pair has been hovering inside 109.80-110.70 but is looking toppish above 110,50-60 and short time charts favour a test of 109.20-30 supportive zone.
EUR/JPY (currently 131,90) stable inside 131,40-132,20. Support at 131,50, target higher between 133 and 133,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7750) still consolidating above 1,7700. 1,7800-10 still looks offered for the time beeing. For today support at 1,7730 and 1,7680, resistances at 1,7810 then 1,7900. The market is accumulating momentum for next move, so watch out for any break of 1,78 or 1,7650 (1.78 break favoured).
EUR/GBP (0,6733) consolidating inside 0,6725-60, the BOE's rate decision later this week will most probably break the trading range. We still believe a break of 0,6750-60 implies a test of 0,6850-75 in the medium term. Strong support now appears around 0,6680.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:45 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
bc// I remember that you post few months ago, when eur was at 1.29, you said that the father of eur pointing out that eur will be around 1.05 by Xmas.

What is your view on his statement now? TIA.

Sydney Rosebery 06:38 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Raden, where do you see EURO going?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:33 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd,
1 minutes and 5 minutes chart is on the buy signal.
I wait 1.7786 for sell because 1 hourly chart is wait and see but 4 hours chart is good for sell there.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:29 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Ina mr.co'z 03:58 GMT May 4, 2004
morning..gello sia...

Moscow Serg 05:32 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello, friends,what do you think about EURJPY, any opinion...

Tokyo Jon 05:23 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:37, no I havent heard from Paris JOM for some time now, he just got to busy with law and gave up the forex.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:18 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
aud still good shorts on the formation of a wedge?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:02 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
sp, orginally decided to short some aud/nzd here 1.1550. but seems it should be voided now if this Piggy news is true.

Brisbane L 04:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Untreatable Pig Disease Confirmed In New Zealand
WELLINGTON (AP)--Pig farmers in northern New Zealand are considering a mass slaughter of their animals to stamp out an untreatable disease that kills young pigs, agriculture officials said Tuesday. Some 25 pig farms on New Zealand's North Island are infected with post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS), a disease first detected in the Waikato farm region of northern North Island last September. Pork industry leaders said they are drawing up plans for a mass slaughter on affected farms in a bid to wipe out the disease.

may be nzd neg

melbourne farmacia 04:37 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 03:39 GMT May 4, 2004
Do u still have contact with Paris JOM ? I assume he's still working with a legal hat on now. GT

Ina mr.co'z 03:58 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello all.....!

Morning Jawa Solo...:)...

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 03:43 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning friends..

Tokyo Jon 03:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro 02:53, will go in there in an hour if you like to chat, or you can get me on Yahoo, [email protected]
talk soon

QC WC 03:35 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
G_V, FX-Strategy forecast 4th May for GBP content is same as USD/CHF.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:56 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
looking to buy eurjpy to complement overnight eurusd
GL GT everyone :-) have fun

Montréal Taro 02:53 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
Thank you
During what time are you in your chat room ?

Singapore Bandito/pilot 02:42 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
See good buyers in eur at 1.1930 and gbp at 1.7700 today... Oz as well at 0.7205 10 this morning

Hong Kong Qindex 02:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.7225 +/- 16 pips for the time being.

Tokyo Jon 02:39 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd(1.7733) probable trading range
High: 1.7790
Low: 1.7631
probable close: 1.7701

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:38 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
martin, seems u are v. confident in this usd bull cycle.

Tokyo Jon 02:28 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
montreal, will do the figures now for you

Montréal Taro 02:19 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
what about cable ?

Tokyo Jon 02:17 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Eurusd(1.1941) Daily probable range
High: 1.2037
Low: 1.1906
Close:1.1966
focusing on the low end, High probablity of play around 1.1905, +38/-16 giving first focal point at 1.1943 and second focal point at 1.1890.
At the high end we have the level 1.2026, +38/-16 which gives us third focal point at 1.2011 and fourth point at 1.2064
odds in favor of sell initially, and then reverse into a buy later during uk/us session.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:11 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 01:59 GMT - No, the market is going to vibrate around 0.7225 for the time being. It is because other cycles are exerting thier effect on the market now.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:03 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 01:59 GMT - No, the market is going to vibrate 0.7225 for the time being. It is because other cycles are exerting thier effect on the market now.

QC WC 01:59 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, now that AUD is above 0.7225, is it going to target 0.7368 first?

Tokyo Jon 01:54 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
hello all, its still holidays here, be back in a minute

Hong Kong Qindex 01:49 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Quantised Levels = Discrete Levels

OK SZ 01:48 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
quantize==apply quantum theory; to restrict the number of possible values (of quantity) so that certain variables can assume onnly certain discrete magnitudes that are integral multiples of a common factor

Hong Kong Qindex 01:40 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 01:22 GMT - I answered you on that day in the help forum and in this forum. If you have a Webster Dictionary, check the meaning of "quantize". That is the best we can explain this word.

Brisbane L 01:31 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Australia Mar Trade Deficit A$1.99B Vs A$1.58B Consensus

quito_valdez at yahoo 01:22 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Quindex//
In layman's terms could you please explain what "quantized" means in the help forum? I asked you to do this once before and never saw a post from you. Thanks amigo. Didn't you say we were supposed to be at 1.17 or below last week?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:50 GMT May 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:50 GMT May 4, 2004
AUD/USD : The key quantized level of my 5-day cycle is positioning at 0.7225. The congested area is projected at 0.7083 - 0.7368. Initially the market is likely to trade between 0.7083 - 0.7225 and the mid-point reference is 0.7154.


... // 0.7083* - 0.7154 - 0.7225 - 0.7347 - 0.7368* // ...

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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