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Forex Forum Archive for 05/06/2004

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Hong Kong Qindex 23:59 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 23:56 GMT - GBP/JPY : I will work on it later. I am bias to the downside. Anyway we will change our mind if there is a shift in our curve.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 23:53 GMT - AUD/USD : I will work on it later today.

nyc sa 23:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex What's ur view on GBP / yen ? I remembers u said last week it is going to 1.9157 , do u still maintain ur view ? looks bullish to me .

Hong Kong Qindex 23:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level in my 44-day cycle reference is located at 1.1991. The market rhythm of my 44-day cycle is represented by 369 pips. The expected maximum magnitude of vibration around 1.1991 is +/- 0.0369, i.e. 1.1623 - 1.2360. It is obvious that the market was blocked at the middle reference between 1.1991 - 1.2360, i.e around 1.2176. It is very likely that the market will vibrate around 1.1991 with an expected magnitude of +/- 185 pips for the time being.


... // 1.1623* - 1.1807 - 1.1991* - 1.2176 - 1.2360* //

QC WC 23:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, how about AUD? TIA

nyc sa 23:52 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
dollar/CHF anyone trading it ? levels please.. looks like it will make another go to 1.30's ? any view ?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:37 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD , spot gold and crude oil make a turn on the same day.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle 38.22 - 39.76 and the trading reference is as follow :-

... 37.84 // 38.22* - 38.60 - 38.99 - 39.38 - 39.76* // 40.14 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 23:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : high / low = 39.97 / 39.15 and closed at 39.37.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:25 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : It is still range bound for the time being.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:13 GMT May 6, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle is as follow :-

... // 0.6718* - 0.6766 - 0.6814* // ...

ny amc 23:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
qindex.....do you follow eur/gbp..........this one has really been hard to get a grasp on.......what are your views......thanks

Tokyo Jon 23:20 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Eurusd(1.2074)

High: 1.2150

Low: 1.2045

Close: 121.07


1.1683(0%), 1.1970(30%), 1.2037(80%), 1.2090(100%),1.2117(60%), 1.2149(40%), 1.2197(10%), 1.2256(0%)

Hong Kong Qindex 23:19 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : I am bias on the downside movement and the following equations will be modified as follow :-


Hong Kong Qindex 10:17 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference


Set A : ... 1.1599* - 1.1681 // 1.1763 - 1.1845 - 1.1926* - 1.2008 - 1.2090 // ...


Set B : ... 1.1623* - 1.1715 // 1.1807 - 1.1899 - 1.1991* - 1.2083 // ...

Dublin CK 23:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for my ignorance Za what is fuckry?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:16 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following curves are governing the downward movement of the market.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:17 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference


Set A : ... 1.1599* - 1.1681 // 1.1763 - 1.1845 - 1.1926* - 1.2008 - 1.2090 - 1.2172 // 1.2253* ...


Set B : ... 1.1623* - 1.1715 // 1.1807 - 1.1899 - 1.1991* - 1.2083 - 1.2176 // 1.2268 - 1.2360* ...

CAIRO AG 23:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ZA// ?????

Hong Kong Qindex 23:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 23:13 GMT May 6, 2004
EUR/USD : Trading reference from my monthly cycle is as follow :-


...// 1.1928 -1.1973 - 1.2018* - 1.2064 - 1.2110 //...

stockholm za 23:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

Is it time for more fuckry ??

Gold Coast martin 21:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Same scenario with AUD...will not close at 7210 target but willinstead look to close at 7125 as this is figure that is likely to be realised before payrolls data ...

LAX-LGB SNP 21:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy has taken off - 200 is not far off
gbpchf/audusd weekly formation suggests a buy
eurusd unsuccessful to close above daily 50 sma but eurjpy above 133 might pull her along

Gold Coast martin 21:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
want toclose my NZD short at 6290 as this was my previously posted target from 4 hours ago but i believe thr nzd has more downside than the 6290...so i will not close at 6290 and instead look for a 6190 figure that will be realised before the payroll data of tonite...g/l g/t

GVI john 21:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2080…$/yen 109.80
DJIA 10,241, -70 pts…NASDAQ 1,938, -20 pts
10-yr 4.60%, -2 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE

SEE GVI for Text

CAIRO AG 21:08 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML... appreciated.

GL & GT

ICT ML 21:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AG.....choppy as cable is right now, I want to wait until London to see if it is a sell or not myself. BUt would be looking to sell into 1.8000 with a darn tight stop if I did

Nottingham Daniel 20:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Productivity rises in Q104
Non-farm productivity in 1Q04 rose at an annualized rate of 3.5%, up from 2.5% in 4Q03. Unit labour cost, the pressure wages place on product costs, rose 0.5%. Hourly compensation rose 4.0% compared to 2.5% in 4Q03. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is expecting productivity growth to fade slowly and hold above historic averages in the months ahead helping to keep a lid on inflation even while wage and income growth begin to recover.

Initial jobless claims down to 315,000
Initial claims for the week ending May 1 fell more than expected 25,000 to 315,000. This is the lowest level since the week ended October. 28, 2000. The four-week average, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, was down 3,750 to 343,250. The report from the Labor Department fuelled expectations that Friday's April payroll numbers could be higher than expected, prompting the Fed to hike rate sooner rather than later.

Upbeat data hobble Treasuries further
U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields crested multi-year highs on Thursday, as a drop in initial jobless claims was seen raising the odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Rising rates implies higher yields for new debt to be issued than notes and bonds already in circulation. The Labor Department also reported, productivity in the U.S. non-farm business sector rose at a 3.5% annual rate in the first quarter. The gain was in line with the consensus expectations. Into close the 10-year Treasury note was down 4/32 at 95-10/32. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction to the price, was up to 4.60%. The long bond was down 7/32 at 100-01/32, yielding 5.37%.

Rate hike dampens investor sentiment
U.S. stocks were under pressure for most of the day on Thursday as continued interest rate worries following another round of positive economic data caused a sell-off. Weakness was widespread across both the Dow and the Nasdaq. Retail stocks drifted lower as April same-store sales was slightly disappointing. High oil prices (just shy of $40) amid growing supply concerns, instability in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, ahead of the peak summer driving season was the chief topic of discussion on Thursday. OPEC even issued a denial of rumours that it plans to hold an emergency meeting prior to its scheduled June 3 session. Also few investors appear keen to make big bets ahead of the jobs report on Friday. GM led decliners on the Dow. Other stocks leaning lower were Caterpillar, DuPont, Home Depot, McDonald's, SBC, and Wal-Mart. Drug stocks fared well, with J&J, Merck, and Pfizer higher. Into close the Dow was 0.69% lower at 10,239.69, while the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.99% lower at 1,937.79.

Upbeat data, early rate hike hopes boost dollar
Upbeat U.S. data helped the U.S. dollar post decent gains, especially against the Japanese yen. Also giving the USD a leg up was the decision by the European Central Bank to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Late session in New York, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.2077 down from 1.2168 late on Wednesday. Cable edged up to 1.7950 up from 1.7927. Earlier on Thursday, the Bank of England hiked rates 25bps. USD/CHF was higher at 1.2846 from 1.2748. The USD was higher against the JPY at 109.76 from 108.68 late on Wednesday. It was higher against the CAD at 1.3769 from 1.3746 and higher against the AUD at 0.7235.

Source: intermoney

CAIRO AG 20:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ML// Where do you think cable should be a good short in your opinion, if it is at all?? Thanks.

GL & GT

Nottingham Daniel 20:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Looking ahead to strong payroll growth

What we expect: Outside of the FOMC statement on Tuesday, the payroll number is the most anticipated release this week. We see payrolls rising close to 200,000 in April, putting enough new entrants to work to keep the unemployment rate steady at 5.7%.

Why we care: Improved conditions point to hourly earnings up 0.2% and the average workweek up a tenth to 33.8 hours. Employment growth will have a lot to do with how the Fed manages the return toward neutrality at least in its the early stages. Our forecast for a 500-650,000 in 2Q04 follow up to 513,000 in 1Q04 would be enough for the Fed to withdraw a 'measure' of nominal accommodation in August. April and May monthly payroll growth closer to the 300,000 seen in March may even be enough to move in June.

Where markets will go: U.S. Treasuries are ripe for an oversold bounce, but must clear the Friday employment report first. For demand to surface in next week's refunding at current levels, hiring cannot be much above 200,000. If non-farm payrolls hit or fall short of the 170,000 consensus, a decent bounce should ensue. Data disappointment, again, should see government paper edge up moderately

Source: intermoney

USA Biscuit Boy 20:24 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
RBA Monetary Policy Statement due out today. Will show how close we are to next rate hike.

ICT ML 19:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Amc, well, eur-gbp is sitting at its hourly ema200, so I think it wil bounce a bit off 15-20 area and form a RH shoulder on the hourly chart. But if it don't bounce, then it could be a good sell later on.

Sysney Angus 19:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
0.7185 Martin? That looks like a great level to DOUBLE UP.

Gold Coast martin 19:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
WE are nearly at 6290 daily level for NZD....be patient ....

Gold Coast martin 19:40 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP....As posted earlier...i am looking to close my daily aud shorts at 7210 but i beleve we will see 7185 as i posted earlierbefore the payrolls data.....g/l

Gen dk 19:37 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CAIRO AG 19:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ML// Thanks my dear friend.....

Actually, after i started to settle myself on the possibility that Euro may long and long.... u made re-think AGAIN....

One of the main reasons am inclined to your view, simply that if we neglect the fact that euro coldnt breach the 1.2200 yesterday nor today, even though that BIG OPTION expired today at 4p.m !!! Also, cable didnt even TRY to approach its line at 1.8060 for TWO DAYS !! Along with the fact that aussie and any other pairs ARE ALL DECLINING infront of the $ !!!

The thing about CABLE s that i was anyways planning to short it from 1.7980 if seen in Asia....

Now, for EurGbp, I longed it from round here ( at 0.6731 ask) three hours ago, was planning to leave open for a descent 70-80pips before closing it.... Now, i will close at your 60-70 level and WATCH THR....LOL?

Anyways, i really thank you for devoting your time to post me AS USUAL.....

NYC jc 19:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Angus, can we brand you a blatant bear?

Chi Sammy 19:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
What seems to be your beef, angus?

Sydney Angus 19:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Australian dollar mate looks to drop to 68 cents. The fallout from China's hard landing will affect the Aussie Dollar more than others.

ny amc 19:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ict.ml...........you dont think eur/gbp is still a good short from here

ICT ML 19:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AG, I covered a short eur-usd from last night at 65 on a TP limit earlier. I have a few things saying that 1.2050 is going to fail in my techies, and maybe 1.2000 is a BOD point if so inclined.

I blew my chance to sell eur-gbp at 80, I was already short eruo vs $ and didn't want the extra risk. I am thinking that I still have a monthly sell signal in play on that pair, and a little hourly H&S is forming. SO I may sell into 60-70 with a tight stop if seen again

I see $CAD finally printed my 1.3800 target, took long enough, I gave up on it last week...LOL

CAIRO AG 19:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Biscuit Boy....

Good Luck

USA Biscuit Boy 19:04 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Would like to see how the 1.2060 support goes in Asia and if it holds ill buy there.

dc fxq 19:02 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Just reading some interesting "look ahead" reaction possibilities to Jobs data tomorrow. Thought is a blowout number (250k +) would dicatate a 50 bps rise in June, strong (201 - 250k) limits any move to 25 bps but would not madate it, inline data (150-200k) would not dictate any immediate action but could well at the August meeting and finally a sub 150k number would still mean an August possibility.

OK SZ 19:02 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
for my 2 cents on the euro is still buy on the dips as long as 1.1920 holds. off to pick son from school and then ball game..see ya in London. GL, GT

CAIRO AG 18:59 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy// Hello... where do suggest longing the euro from 1.2050 or 1.2059 or else?
Thanks

GL>

USA Biscuit Boy 18:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Well wouldn't these high oil prices then be a significant component towards the inflation number we have at present. If oil prices fall (as some are confident will happen) then the meager inflation we have will also fall how can we expect a rate hike anytime soon? From the cooked jobs data?

dc fxq 18:35 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
From Briefing

"The FOMC minutes from March 16 show some members were concerned about leaving emergency rates low for such an extended period, but left policy rates unchanged with the federal funds rate targeted at the 45 year low of 1.00%. The statement noted there was concern over encouraging "increased leverage and excessive risk-taking" in the 1% environment that would lead to "financial and economic instability," once tightening did commence. They also said that the Fed could be patient in altering policy accommodation. The disinflation worries remained to a degree as "recent price trends were not clear, with some measures of core inflation still declining."

Dallas GEP 18:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Martin Closed all AUSSIE shorts @ .7250 earlier an d now have AUSSIE long from .7220. What's you view on these levels sir???

dc fxq 18:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:23 GMT - yes but "seasonally adjusted" rottflma

wellington ad 18:28 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Van - I think numbers will speak louder then words...

USA Biscuit Boy 18:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
With regards to the inflation numbers in the US do they include oil prices in the equation?

Van jv 18:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
iom stan 17:21 GMT
""This from the Greenspan speech which to my mind he says the doolar is not worth the present pricing."""IMO you are right LT ---ST we may have correction which may be a B. opportunity......

Wisconsin tim 18:19 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
talk about quibbling --

"The main point was over inflation, and whether to consider it quite low or just low. In the end the FOMC agreed that inflation was expected to remain low."

Van jv 18:12 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Stan, overlooked that it was today's A.G. on Budget Gap

USA Biscuit Boy 18:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD 200 sma at 0.7225. If we don't close above here and no buying interest in Asia then Tim you have jinxed me hehe.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:59 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hello money hunters !!

OK SZ 17:57 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
you cannot post that here..nice try

dc fxq 17:54 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 16:51 GMT seems as though the "whisper" number is in fact around 200k after the UIC report earlier today.

Gen dk 17:52 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Van jv 17:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
iom stan ///
"This from the Greenspan speech.."-----interesting quote, can you give date......that was possibly rational A.G.--as compared to ..........

iom stan 17:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
This from the Greenspan speech which to my mind he says the doolar is not worth the present pricing. Any thoughts any one. Stan

He said that the dollar's foreign exchange value has remained close to the average level of the past two decades in spite of soaring trade deficits and there have been no major economic disruptions triggered by record high household debt.

"Has something fundamental happened to the U.S. economy and, by extension, U.S. banking, that enables us to disregard all the time-tested criteria of imbalance and economic danger?" Greenspan asked.

Answering his own question, the Fed chairman said, "Regrettably, the answer is no. The free lunch has still to be invented

CAIRO AG 17:18 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
SZ// Well, thats may be the BEST thing to be done for now, till things gets clearer.

GL & GT

GENEVA 17:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
$ RALLYING ON THE BACK OF STRONG JOBLESS CLAIMS. MARKET IS CLEARLY PRICING IN STRONNG ECONOMIC GROWTH GOING FORWARD. NON FARM PAYROLL EXPECTED AT 173K - BLOOMBERG. FOR THE TIME BEING 1.2060 HOLD. TOMORROW GONNA BE DECISIVE FOR $.

OK SZ 17:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
well good afternoon folks..me and my better half decided to take the day off and play golf..beautiful day here in sunny okalhoma..I see the market is still undecided on what to do from the looks of thinggs..will watch the rest of day..gl, gt all

dc fxq 16:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 16:51 GMT I am still seeing 165-170k

Van jv 16:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Empl. data US---/// any adjustment for recent ec. data..??---expectation in seems around +200k /old range +60-250/

athens 16:46 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
I have a long position in eurusd at 1.2140. is there near a level support?? i thing to wait in the 9 and 18 moving averages.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Something about X and Y ???? I flunked algebra so couldn't tell you.

dc fxq 16:28 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
censored

Hong Kong Qindex 16:27 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3

The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle is positioning at 9981.3. A projected resistant level has been established at 10305.4 - 10444.4 and a projected supporting level is expected at 9518.3 - 9657.1.

st. pete islander 16:24 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
What'd he say??????

clon glenn 16:20 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

run THAT through babelfish!

stockholm za 16:15 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

fwiw...
this censored forum only like to censored it self, so you censored guys can continue censored each other...at EUR/USD = (x-2)+(y-1/x)
However i wish you all censored trades & a censored day.....

USA Biscuit Boy 16:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
We will know in the next few days tim. Only time will tell.

Gen dk 16:03 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wisconsin tim 15:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Well hope it works for you I have this uncanny ability to do exactly what i should not have done ... this whole zigged when I should've zagged.

Stop was taken out by 1 pip hope I did the right thing for your sake

gt/gl

USA Biscuit Boy 15:49 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
LOL tm!!! Im confident tho it is a strong position.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Not sure yet have to watch eur/usd closely and also see if buying interest continues in Asia at this price. Would like to hold for a test of 0.7360/70, sell it there, and buy again if we break on a dip.

Gen dk 15:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wisconsin tim 15:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
biscuit might want to wait on that long

my anti-tim trading rule looks like it might come in:
just lowered my stop on short to protect profits, which means it'll come up take my stop out then tank lol

Sydney alimin 15:28 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy, what's your target for that aud long?

Bahrain KZ 15:27 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
An shorting GBP/CHF any time soon

Livingston nh 15:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
thanx sam

USA Biscuit Boy 15:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
And thats me long now AUD/USD at 0.7249. Cheers.

slv sam 15:18 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nh/
thank your view, may be true in addition to some political risk in Canada (election!) causing unease but in my view over medium to long term we will see sub 1.30 level.GT

Gold Coast martin 15:15 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BISCUIT BOY...HOPE YOR FOLLOWED THROUGH YOUR AUD/NZD....

Swiss DG 15:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 14:55,
Thanks for your post regarding kiwi, just caught the train to recover from my bad position with aussie.

Livingston nh 15:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Sam - what do you see in CAD?
CAD is only currency still left looking at a rate cut - employment figs for Canada tomorrow expected to be pretty sour -on the charts all the mva moving higher //

Gen dk 15:08 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 15:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:04 GMT - Good on you.

slv sam 15:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
expecting $/cad to fall like a rock soon...it is very tired after countless attempt to vross 1.3770!GT

HK Kevin 15:04 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:56 GMT, very good forecast on EUR. Covered my short position from 1.2160 last night at your 1.2085 point. Also covered the long USD/JPY from ~108.40 at 109.58.
Now looking at the 15 min chart for a signal to go long EUR.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is now trying to pullback one step further down from my monthly cycle. In other words the current expected trading range from my monthly cycle charts is 1.2018* - 1.2110. After expansion the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.2018* - 1.2041 - 1.2064 - 1.2087 - 1.2110 // ...

Gold Coast martin 14:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
KEEP AN EYE ON THE CRUDE GENTLEMEN....

Hong Kong Qindex 14:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 22:15 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : A projected resistant point is positioning at 1.2202 and the current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 1.2110 - 1.2202. After expansion the trading reference is as follow :-

... // 1.2110* - 1.2133 - 1.2156 - 1.2179 - 1.2202* // ...

Gold Coast martin 14:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
very true BISCUIT BOY...the crumbs in 2 hours will be substantial....

Hong Kong Qindex 14:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : I am bias to the downside.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:58 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference is as follow :-

... // 1.1991* - 1.2036 - 1.2081 - 1.2126 - 1.2170* // ...

GA TJ 14:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 14:41 GMT May 6, 2004

Tend to agree with but not ready to committ yet. Think I have seen enough today. Closing all open posi's. Went 3,1,1 for the day so I am going to take the PIPS and run. Will check the charts again in a few hours.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
It might pay to buy aud/nzd soon then.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:23 GMT May 6, 2004
USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2654 // 1.2715 - 1.2776 - 1.2837 - 1.2898 - 1.2959 // ...

HK Kevin 14:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ooozmeeh 14:10 GMT May 6, could you elaborate?

Gold Coast martin 14:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BISCUIT BOY...the kiwi will follow its aussie cousin downward in the next 2 hours..down to 6290 range..has to overcome resistance barrier of 6325...

USA Biscuit Boy 14:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Interestingly kiwi staying quite firm. Nobody willing to take a position in this currency?

ny amc 14:41 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
GA...........to me its a short from here

GA TJ 14:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Sitting here wondering which one is going to fail on the Swissy 1) the double Bottom from a month ago or 2) the down trend line from 2 weeks ago. Looking at the 60 Min chart. Any prognosticators out there?

LondonJoe 14:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW current pricing or expectations on the fed via FEDFUND Futures is:
FOMC Date
30june 14bp ~ 56% chance of a 25bp hike
10 aug 33bp - i.e. fully prices a 25bp hike and in fact has 66% chance of a 50bp hike
21sep 51bp - fully prices 50bp hike
in 1yrs time there are approx 150bp of hikes factored into the current strip.... and all of this on the back of 1 strong NFP last month... tomorrows number will either put the june meet more in play if we see >200/250k IMHO and eur back to 1.1780-1.2180 trading range

or sub 120k print will take some of the expecations in the curve out or push out hikes till post the election IMHO.... and be usd negative.. eur back to 1.22-1.25 range

Hong Kong Qindex 14:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : 387.8 / 388.3

Next target is 379.7.

Gold Coast martin 14:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
As posted 3 hours ago crude is excellent short term entry at anywhere in 39 range to drop back to 35 in next 3 sessions....g/l...

USA Biscuit Boy 14:25 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Oh and cheers to Dallas GEP for his thoughts yesterday. Ca-ching.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD and AUD/USD heading for my 1.2050 and 0.7245 buy zones. Pricing in a good NFP figure.

IST Sez 14:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
I closed at 0,7270 my aussie short from 0,7308.
;-)

Wash DC Tempus 14:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Concerning tom. jobs number.....
I think everyone is underestimataing the effects a strong number will have on US$ direction and interest rates. I think that a number which prints above 200k with little revision of last months figure will be extremely US$ positive. I keep hearing chatter that the Fed will be slow and steady yet the majority of the street sees interest rates 125-150 bp higher in one year. We believe a robust figure tom. coupled with strong data for the month of May (which we see as very likely) will prompt a 25 bp hike at the June 30 meeting. Expect US$ strength to remain in market based on this assumption. Clearly trade today reinforces market anxiety about the jobs data.....
Be very careful if you maintain the mindset that the Fed is not hiking soon. Greenspan et al are way behind the curve and being very politically minded (and blamed by some for Bush 1 defeat) we think that the Fed could hike now rather than once the full swing presidential electoral process begins. IMHO

GA TJ 14:20 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ooozmeeh 14:11 GMT May 6, 2004
...yen barrier 109.80..

Be very quite when you say please. I don't won't the Yen to hear you. I still have a long posi going.

Gold Coast martin 14:18 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
SYD....My short term position on the aussie today has been..i entered at 7308....looking to exit at 7210...

Bahrain KZ 14:16 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Short Long
EURUSD 1.2182 1.1940
USDJPY 111.01 108.78
GBPUSD 1.8014 1.7678
USDCHF 1.2968 1.2701
EURCHF 1.5546 1.5417
AUDUSD 0.7333 0.7143
USDCAD 1.3849 1.3633
NZDUSD 0.6373 0.6204
EURGBP 0.6813 0.6700
EURJPY 133.89 131.21
GBPJPY 197.52 194.73
CHFJPY 86.48 84.64
GBPCHF 2.3094 2.2716
EURAUD 1.6828 1.6477
EURCAD 1.6768 1.6376
AUDCAD 1.0043 0.9854
AUDJPY 80.15 78.94

hk ooozmeeh 14:11 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
...yen barrier 109.80..

Gen dk 14:11 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney 14:11 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin - AUD - what's your entry and stop ?

hk ooozmeeh 14:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
very interesting candlestick formation on the daily chart of euro (southbound) and yen (northbound), fwiw good trades to all!!!!.....

Gold Coast martin 14:09 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
SWISS..DG..Should the aud breach the 7250 resistance barrier tonite you can forget about the aussie going back to 73 tonite or tommorow....maybe it will get a little lift if tomorrows payroll numbers are usd negative..but even then,if 7250 is breached tonite it will slide back to 7185 by the time of the payrolls announcement,which means that the 73 range is going to be as elusive as the 78 barrier for long term hopefuls....g/l g/t

Swiss DG 14:02 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 13:46 GMT,
Hoops, yes! got confused! Do you expect aussie to go back to .73 later on today or tomorrow? tia

Nottingham 13:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 13:48 GMT

as they say, one number doesn't make a trend and many will be looking for a confirmatory number in the 200/+ bracket, so while there may be a case for buying the euro dip, I think being short dollar on the release of a number in the region of the above would see you losing money initially at the very least...gl gt

slv sam 13:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
closed all positions...liquidity raised used to sell $/cad here at 1.3760...will sell only at 1.28..ready to wait for months to realize profits!.GT

boulder dat 13:48 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel...

interesting little bit there. i was just thinking the same thing. either way, the dollar probably won't get much out of tomorrows number. we got a fairly decent number today (although they aren't entirely correlated), yet have not gotten anything more than a correction from some good buying over the past few days. i'm looking for a price and level to start buying euros. hoping to start buying for a fairly good run up.

Nottingham 13:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Generally nobody is up for boat rocking ahead of the payrolls so fading the sharper moves should pay off...for aussie some interest may lie at 7250/40...gl gt

Gold Coast martin 13:46 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD....Is going south....by the way,interesting article nottingham...

Swiss DG 13:43 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Is aussie going to go further north or .... need help!

Nottingham 13:40 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
aussie...7250 option expiry at top of hour said to be behind weakness

Gen dk 13:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham Daniel 13:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Comments by Chuck Butler - Food for thought for traders waiting for the job numbers tomorrow:

Tomorrow though... Hold on to your seat, for we'll see the monthly Jobs data at the Jobs Jamboree. It will be interesting to see if there is any major revision to last month's surprising 308K jobs created, and it will be interesting to see it there is a strong follow up in April to the March number. But, I've got one more thought on this that I'll share with you... And that is even if the jobs created number is strong, I don't see that as something that's going to rally the dollar again...
You see, last month's did because it was the first time we saw strength, which led everyone to believe U.S. rates were going to go higher... But now, we know that, and we know that the Fed is going to take it slow and steady, which isn't going to give the dollar any more fuel to rally!


dc fxq 13:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 13:10 GMT May 6, 2004
08:37 EUR NOW! ECB's Trichet plays up more encouraging growth signals - from 4castnews

or if you prefer from IFR
12:46 EUR/USD: A Hint Of Pessimism In Trichet"s Comments

depends on your POV I guess. LoL

Gen dk 13:25 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bucharest Razvan 13:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys.. Moved the stop to b/e on the 1.2070 long, fwiw. Will load more on a clear break of 1.22 (but I'm not holding my breath) :)

Nottingham Daniel 13:15 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
This is from Hussmanfunds.com... "In my view, the market has the whole China thesis wrong. Economic growth in China has been extremely rapid, to the point where the Chinese government is quite concerned about "hot money" investments and profligate bank lending. As a result, we can
expect China to tighten its grip on monetary policy. The implication for the markets, however, is profoundly different from last week's interpretation.

If China tightens monetary policy (and given its strong central control, it has much more effective tools to do this than the Fed), it must also allow interest rates to rise domestically. Yet that sort of tightening is completely at odds with a policy of holding down the value of the yuan, which is already under heavy pressure to revalue. As a result, we are probably very close to the time when China will finally, and possibly abruptly, allow a revaluation of its currency."

dc fxq 13:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
08:37 EUR NOW! ECB's Trichet plays up more encouraging growth signals - from 4castnews

yesss, like the unexpected drop in German mfg orders? :)

Livingston nh 12:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
G'span says inflation well contained - from today's productivity report the implicit price deflator jumped to 1.9% in Q1 from 0.6% in Q4 2003 - and compensation - "Hourly compensation increased at a 4.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2004, more rapidly than the 2.5-percent increase in the fourth quarter. When the rise in consumer prices was taken into account, real hourly compensation grew by 0.4 percent in the first quarter; it had increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003."

Wage pressures will build

washington MMM 12:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys
Any views on GBP/JPY ?.....Thanks

dc fxq 12:48 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
NY KAY 12:38 GMT - shouldn't be USD -ve.

Nottingham 12:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
imo cnbc is a parallel universe where nothing is as it seems, or at least not as they are on planet earth

Tel Aviv ZG 12:45 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
on CNBC i mean

van Gecko 12:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk
Kali mera Roumeli..*!*

Livingston nh.. thanks for the info..
cheers

hk ab nz
euro/gbp is a BS trade for May.. Buy & Snooze..

ny amc 12:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
the DXC is not too excited about the number

Tel Aviv ZG 12:43 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Funny nothing about job claims in U.S only trichet talk

Mfld JM 12:41 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
NY KAY 12:38 GMT May 6, 2004
Good for $

NY KAY 12:38 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone pls, jobless claim good for the $$ or not?

GA TJ 12:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
If anyone care I have moved the Stop to BE on Cable. If it fails to break 1.8000 in the next few hours I will exit if not Stopped by then. I which point i will make every effort to complicate the process and confuse myself.

Roumeli aek 12:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Geia sou Saloniko

dc fxq 12:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Productivity 3.5% as expected

dc fxq 12:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 12:29 GMT - don't we though? :)

dc fxq 12:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
weekly UIC -25k at 315k

houston st 12:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

US jobless claims fell 25,000 to to 315,000 in week of May 1.

GA TJ 12:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 11:44 GMT May 6, 2004

Totally agree. Hence the LOL. Sometimes we make this more complicated than what it should be. Up 53 on the Cable trade from post release.

Gen dk 12:27 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko 2004 nk 12:15 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning all!

van Gecko 11:18 GMT May 6, 2004..(a post for tough stomach!)

Roumeli..

Have a nice day!

nk

Livingston nh 12:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Possibility that the US productivity may disappoint - GDP was essentially the same as Q4 2003 (except for the inflation component) and employment expanded by more than a half million in Q1 (more hours worked) - may not move the market as much as Unemployment Claims but we'll see

Gen dk 12:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Normandy (in London today) Nick 12:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
pound at 1.7982/////!!!!!!!

Normandy (in London today) Nick 12:09 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
close euro short at 1.2121 , ready to buy pound at 1.2182

hong kong nt 11:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AB -- thanks for you call, exit at .6789

PAR 11:52 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE de facto admitting that inflation is much higher than officially reported. This should lead to higher compensation demands by unions and make Browns demands for wage moderation rather hollow.

GVI john 11:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
At today’s meeting, which was held in Helsinki, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 3.00% and 1.00% respectively.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. (C.E.T.) today.

houston st 11:46 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

ECB leaves all key rates unchanged.

GVI john 11:45 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ECB unch as expected

dc fxq 11:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 11:30 GMT I meant only from a very S/T perspective, TJ. Basically if one has positioned himself ahead of the news release and it comes as or better than expected profit taking is a natural "urge". :-)

hong kong nt 11:40 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF -- 1.267-1.284 range today...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, but in case a .25 seen, will rethink on this limit.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:37 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, fwiw, I would like to put a limit on eurgbp .6683 long.
Let's see.

GVI john 11:35 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2120…$/yen 109.40
DJIA -42 pts… 10-yr 4.60%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
The Bank of England 25bp hike in its Repo rate to 4.25% was as widely expected. The ECB will announce its policy decision shortly at 11:45 with a press conference to follow at 12:30 GMT. After the European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions today, the only suspense out of Europe is the Press Conference by Jean Claude Trichet at 12:30 GMT. Odds are he will confirm that European monetary policy will remain in a holding pattern for an extended period of time. This statement out of the BOE jangled some nerves in the Gilt markets. “With a small and diminishing margin of spare capacity, inflationary pressures are likely to build despite a higher level of sterling than at the beginning of the year.” The BOE meeting notes will be released in about two weeks time.

Another key focus today is the 12:30 GMT release of the Weekly Jobless Claims Report. Street estimates are for an outcome of 335,000 after 338,000 in the prior period. These figures in general will help color the outlook for the April employment report tomorrow. Street estimates currently center around an increase in Jobs of 175,000. This figure will have a major influence on whether the Fed will consider a Fed Funds rate hike at the June 29/30 FOMC. Also 1Q04 Productivity figures are due at the same hour. A sharp rise on the order of +3.7% is seen vs. +2.6% in 4Q03.

As we often remind ourselves, its not the news but the market reaction the news that counts. The dollar very recently has not been responding positively to good news. That suggests that dollar demand at current levels has been satiated. The same pattern has been evident in U.S. equity markets as well. Such suggests that investors are content with the current state of their portfolios vis a vis the outlook for corporate profits also. A new rush into shares would fuel dollar demand.

German March Mfg Orders fell unexpectedly by -0.7%. Consensus forecast were for a rise of +0.7%. This is more bad news for the ECB. The U.K. CIPS services PMI for April improved to 59.0 from 58.7 in March. These data support the view that the British economy remains on an advancing track, In Switzerland, the April Swiss Consumer Sentiment Index improved to -13 from -22 in January. The data further support the view that the SNB will move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy on June 17.

Japanese markets returned from holidays since last Friday as the Golden Days holiday period drew to a close. The Nikkei played catch up and fell 190 points to 11,571. Anything below 12,000 casts a mildly negative shadow on the economic outlook. Exporters were said to be capping the $/yen with offers from the 110-111 level. The 108.62 20-day moving average is being touted as key dollar support. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in Brussels called for a gradual cooling off of the Chinese economy. He said the economy grew 9.7% in the first quarter, pointing to a construction boom and inflationary pressure from high energy costs. He said we must not have a very sudden slow down. China desires a soft landing of the Chinese economic transformation. Odds are that fears in Japan and elsewhere about a hard landing for China are overblown and at least premature. Also a comment that China is ready to explore market oriented exchange rate has made headlines.

Australia saw Retail Sales improve +0.7% in March. They were up +8.4% y/y. The markets had been expecting an increase of +0.6% in the month. Additional Reserve Bank tightening is not completely off the table for the rest of the year, depending on the course of future data releases.

Speaking today will be FRB Governor Bies, Chairman Greenspan and Richmond Fed Pres Broaddus and St. Louis Fed Pres Poole
CALENDAR
THURSDAY May 6, 2004
11:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council meeting decision
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT- 1Q04 Productivity: vs. +2.6% in 4Q04
18:00 GMT- US- Mar 16 FOMC minutes

FRIDAY, May 7, 2004
AUS- RBA Monetary Policy Statement
10:00 GMT- GER- Mar preliminary Industrial Output
11:00 GMT- CDA- Apr Employment Report
Jobs vs. -13,300, see +12,000
Rate vs. 7.5%, see 7.4%
12:30 GMT- US- Apr Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. 308,000 in Mar, see +175,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.7% in Mar, see 5.7%

Jakarta FOX 11:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BoE rate hike will threat manufacturing recovery in England, said Trade Union Congress.

Livingston nh 11:30 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
GECKO - SNB is probably next to raise rates

GA TJ 11:30 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 11:23 GMT May 6, 2004
It has got to be much more complicated than that. LOL

Vilnius Phoenix 11:22
Give it time to get thru the intitial reaction. I view it has gift that I was able to Buy at 1.7920. Stop at 1.7898

PAR 11:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE raised rates because they are worried that high prizes of Picasso painting could impact British art.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
geez, wrong stop again ? ahahha

the yen might want to be strengthened a bit to cancel the high oil effect.

houston st 11:25 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

good day all; still riding the eur/usd train towards 1.2219 and beyond; awaiting ECB news & weekly US jobless numbers; hope all your trades today are profitable; gl/gt.

PAR 11:25 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
German banks selling EURGBP aiming for stops below 6750 and putting on carry trades.

dc fxq 11:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Phoenix 11:22 GMT the market had factored in a .25% rate increase over the past week or so therefore buy the rumor, sell the fact.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Gecko, this round, we need to watch gb/chf as well, imho.

Vilnius Phoenix 11:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
WHY Cable falling down, it should come up for about 100 pips after 0,25 ?

van Gecko 11:18 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
market moving dollar bulls may had lost interest in top feeding the Dollar after spending tons of ammo in April pushing the euro_swissy twins with little or no return.. (may be some had over-heard Confuse_cious mumble "Fx_elephants who chooses to stand in front of Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, & Daily Falling Dollar Knives may soon lose weight & have ever-lasting peace away from FX"..?)
;
this week's break under 1.29 is fatal for Dollar/chf..
the little dollar looks exhausted after repeated failures to over-shoot 1.31 in April..
with 1.2888 acting like a stonewall to heaven, 1.2650 may be the gateway to mid term bliss for the little dollar down at 1.2150.. 1.1111..
Cheerios..


Milan ED 11:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD "if you subscribed to the large head and shoulders scenario then the recent up-move may be a textbook pullback to the neckline before breaking down bigger picture"

PAR 11:16 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ECB could lower rates by 0.25 today because of ever increasing unemployment in Europ especially in France and Germany and because of political inaction on the European economy.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:15 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
oil rises..... all those oils belonged to ME countries....

And of them use USD....

Hong Kong Qindex 11:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 11:13 GMT May 6, 2004
EUR/GBP : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle is as follow :-

... // 0.6718* - 0.6766 - 0.6814* // ...

Nottingham 11:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
cable...1.7975/80 will take some breaking...pivotal...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:04 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
those c9 longed gbp long long ago on rate hike news......

what interested me more is if eur/gbp breaks and close under .6729...

PAR 11:04 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE wants deflation.

Brisbane L 11:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
: BoE Meets Expectations With 25BP Rate Hike

PAR 11:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Buy GBP . BOE raised by 0.25. GBP will go to 1.8200.

IST Sez 11:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE:+0,25 to 4,25

Hong Kong Qindex 11:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : The extreme limit of my monthly cycle is 45.94 which has less than 1% chance.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 35.13 - 39.76 and the critical point is positioning at 36.68. The next targeting point is 41.30 if crude oil can overcome the projected resistance.

Nottingham 10:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
martin, could go much much higher imo

Livingston nh 10:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Par - re: FTSE - more energy dependent // other European bourses are more heavily down

Gold Coast martin 10:54 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Does any one in their right mind expect oil to breach the 40 range and stay there in the short term?

PAR 10:46 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Oil at + $ 40 should sent stock markets crashing but is good for government financing since taxes are % of oil price.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:43 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
An expert once told me that if oil approaches 40, it is definitely negative for euro.

QC WC 10:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks anyway, just asking cause you have daily, 5 days, weekly, 22 days, monthly, 44 days, 3 months cycle analysis. Isn't daily very short term?

athens 10:41 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
is there any forecast for oil??

thanks

Livingston nh 10:38 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Par - oil price near $40

PAR 10:37 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Why is the FTSE holding so well with UK interest rates approaching 5 % ?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 10:29 GMT - It is better not to use my material for reference if it is very short term.

QC WC 10:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, sad because he missed the move or sad because he didn't place a stop?

QC WC 10:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, very short term.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, chance for a fast approach to make a double bottom for aud and nzd upcoming?

Will have work tonight and see you all NY lunch.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 10:22 GMT - I really don't know your time frame. I would prefer not to say too much. I can see someone is very up sad this morning.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 22:54 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.1959* ... 1.2020* ... // 1.2081* - 1.2112 - 1.2142* - 1.2173 - 1.2203* - 1.2234 // 1.2264* ... 1.2325* ...

QC WC 10:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, what are the odds Euro about to correct now or rise further?

Normandy (in London today) Nick 10:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
short euro 1.2140 target 1.21 stop 1.2165

Hong Kong Qindex 10:16 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 21:58 GMT May 5, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference is as follow :-

... // 1.1991* - 1.2036 - 1.2081 - 1.2126 - 1.2170* // ...

Normandy (in London today) Nick 10:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
since euro went below 1.2140 , I think there are some good chances to see 1.21

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
target 131.30.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
short little eur/jpy 132.78 tight s/l 133.08.

PAR 09:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE has replaced BUBA as best central bank of the world and GBP behaves like the once rock solid Deutsche Mark.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:48 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
wosh... gbp is the star.

Gen dk 09:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:40 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, did u unload some eur/gbp at 100 dma and reload later?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
my interest is at 109.85.

ham cla 09:34 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hearing middle east man offers here in dol/yen.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:30 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
martin//with current "fundamentals", I, if I am a funnymentalist,, I will short aud/gbp for a trip back to .34xx area.

Brisbane L 09:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
(REUTERS)-Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called Thursday for a gradual cooling off of the Chinese economy.
"There is a concern that the Chinese economy is overheated," Wen said to the European Union-China Investment and Trade Forum. The Chinese leader is in Brussels as part of an 11-day European tour. He said his country's economy grew 9.7% in the first quarter, pointing to a construction boom and inflationary pressure from high energy costs. He used the analogy of a driver on the autobahn in his Mercedes who must gently lift his foot from the accelerator. "We should reduce speed but we mustn't have a very sudden slowing, this is what people refer to as a soft landing of the Chinese economic transformation," he said.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:50 GMT - It looks great.

Rivonia PipPirate 09:07 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
china 外汇金銀分析 6 Looks like you have squared off all your trades for today.

Gold Coast martin 08:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk...ab.. nzd....if you are planning to consume as much lobster as your claim may be the export price of lobster to hong kong will increase and there will be a good opportunity for aussie companies to increase their lobster trade with hong kong!...enjoy your dinner....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:54 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
bc// It's our great pleasure.

Yup, the gold is still some interesting thing that we need to monitor carefully at the moment.

Do u think it will take a bit long term (3 -6 months) to digest the sale of that hedge funds?

TIA!

china 外汇金銀分析 6 08:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
外汇攻略 06/05/2004

4月份欧元区服务业PMI持续扩张,欧洲货币持续攀升,欧元於欧洲市时间见企稳向上,但汇市波动较为平静,纽约市时间,美国公布服务业ISM指数表现理想,阻碍了欧洲货币再行大幅上扬,但美元亦未见因此能受到提 ,只限收复局部失地,市场关注明晚非农业新增职位表现。




技术上美元已跌破近期关键支持,因此短期将处弱势,欧元於欧洲货币中呈最强表现,欧元区经济复苏与预期相近,因此减息压力降低,协助欧元企稳,而美国的双赤问题困扰美元仍会为经济带来冲击,IMF新任总裁亦再表示对此感到担忧,美元新一轮跌势将会展开,预计明晚的非农业新增职位亦只会短期为美元带来支持。

今晚美国将公布一 周 首 次 申 领 失 业 援 助 人 数、非 农 业 生 产 力及平 均 劳 工 成 本。



欧元

欧元区四月份服务业采购经理指数报54.5,预测报54.6。三月份零售销售较上月份下跌0.2%,预测报持平,较去年同期上升0.9%,预测上升0.9%。

欧元持续上扬,由於已上穿前期区间波动区域,因此近月跌势已面临终结,美国强劲经济数据表现及美联储为加息铺路亦未有打压欧元走势,现阶段仍反覆测试1.22关口,但预计此为置有较大阻力。

建 议 1.2050-1.2200间高沽低买,100点止赚,60 止蚀 。



日圆

日圆随欧洲货币企稳反弹,下跌动力减弱,回试108水平後,盘整上落。

建 议 108.20-109.80间高沽低买,100点止赚,60点止蚀。



英镑

英国4月份HALIFAX房屋物价上升1.8%,3个月数据较去年同期上升19.1%。

英国因加息预期而上涨,如预期破1.8关口,但有平盘压力未能企稳收市,後市将盘整上落。

建 议 1.7850-1.8000间高沽低买,100点止赚, 60止 蚀 。



瑞士法郎

瑞士政府保持今年1.8%增长预测,及2005年的2.3%。
欧元瑞士法郎交叉盘持续回升令瑞郎直盘未如其他欧洲货币般强势,区间整理後再行突破。
建议 於 1.2700-1.2880间高沽低买, 100 点 止 赚 , 60 点 止 蚀 。



澳元

中国宏观调控影响,商品货币上涨未及欧洲货币,但消息渐见消化,商品货币开始稳定,低位盘整。

建 议0.7250买入,100点止赚,50点止蚀 。



纽元

纽元因加息提供支持,低位盘整,纽元将反覆上落。

建 议 0.6300买入,100点止赚,50点止蚀 。



加元

加元为直盘货币中较为弱势的,澳纽低位徘徊,加元走势将反覆整固。

建 议 加 元 於1.3780买入, 100 点 止 赚 , 60 点 止 蚀 。



金银满屋

欧洲货币持续企稳,贵金属走势亦较为稳定,区间内波幅,现时欧洲货币倾向短期转势上扬,预计美元再进一步攀升机会微,而美联储加息可能虽存在,但市场已完全消化此冲击,对贵金属後市打压全有限,相信未来美元仍陷於中期弱势中,双赤及伊拉克问题仍会困扰美元走势,有助资金流向贵金属市场。



黄金

有效突破390(港金∶ 3622)後,反弹走势延伸,现阶段宜回位买入,385(港金∶ 3577)为中期支持。
建 议390(港金∶ 3622)买入,目标395(港金∶ 3667),破387(港金∶ 3595)止蚀。



白银

白银走势与黄金相若,低位反弹,消化超卖情况。
建议於5.85买入,目标6.20,破5.75止蚀。

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hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:50 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q, see if you like the dishes or not, THANKS. We can change till you satisfy the dishes by 6:00 pm today. TKS!

Gold Coast martin 08:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Look out for a drop in crude to 35 level within next 3 sessions...presents excellent short term trade opportunity..g/l to all...

shanghai bc 08:30 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

AB 07:24 -- Good afternoon..Thanks for your invitation..Gold is still telling us Dollar bounce is not over and done yet ..Still blocked by previous floor of 395 with huge mountains of Gold above it..In any case,it will move a bit earlier than Eur/Usd if there is a real medium-term revival of Euro at some point..Cannot imagine a situation where Gold is falling while Euro is rising for several weeks or months although Gold and Dollar rising together for a few months were seen before..Good trades..

Nottingham Daniel 08:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank Take For ToDay

Sterling bulls exit ahead of rate decision 6th May, 2004

EUR USD (1.2145) Although the euro came dangerously close to 1.2190/00, our current target, we do not really believe that the churning that we witnessed was due to the expected medium-term sales. Remember that this is the point that approximately corresponds to the average entry price of the medium-term dip-buyers of the last two months.
At this level (importantly, not before this level) they could exit remaining long positions without loss and put the whole episode behind them. But yesterday’s sellers seemed to be of the daytrading variety. Possibly encouraged by the worsening employment situation in Germany, by a stronger US ISM Index and by the prospect of a better-than-expected US non-farm payroll number tomorrow, short-term players sold the singlecurrency and snatched it back ahead of the earlier Asian low. Of course, the most convincing argument for short-selling among this group is the relative high spot price, thus they will almost certainly be back today. A break above 1.2240 today will mean that medium-term traders have
nothing more to sell. It would also squeeze short-term bears. This point is therefore the trigger for a continued advance to 1.2390. On the downside, the tightened limit to our current bullish scenario now stands at 1.2095. An eventual decline would only become critical below 1.2010/15.

USD JPY (108.90) On the second attempt yesterday, the dollar’s recent decline also violated the critical 109.25 support. Although short-selling has been the favoured strategy among daytraders over the last couple of weeks, we suspect that most of them have already taken profits (or gotten out without loss, as the case may be). With increasingly fewer of such bids in the market, there is little to prevent a deeper slide to 107.10/25, which is therefore the current target. Nearby resistances stand at the breakpoint and at 109.55. The latter must
be used as the upside limit to the bearish view,

EUR JPY (132.50) The current objective remains at 135.65. Yesterday’s first move however, was a swift decline right to the limits of our bullish scenario. This point, 131.50, held and ultimately rejected the cross to the current level. Similar choppy trading conditions can be expected at higher levels too. A number of intermediate resistances could serve to complicate an advance at 133.50 and at 133.95. Although it is distant, it is also worth noting a critical point to the downside at 129.75; a break there would be devastating for the
cross. Intermediate support also comes in at 130.40/50.

EUR GBP (0.6780) After three days of indecision, selling Sterling seemed to be the most urgent priority for short-term traders ahead of today’s UK rate decision. It would appear that all of their efforts to talk up the UK economy over the last few days (high oil price, recovery in UK manufacturing, house price inflation, etc) were aimed at providing them with a better exit price for existing short euro positions. The cross pushed to a twomonth high of 0.6790 and thereby opened the prospect of a continued advance to 0.6940 in the near-term. For
today, good resistance stands at 0.6820. If this upmove is some kind of false break , it is likely to end there. The downside limit to the bullish scenario must be set relatively tight in any case, at 0.6735.

Nottingham Daniel 08:14 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England appears set to raise interest rates by a quarter-point for the third time since November today as all signs point to an economy powering ahead on all cylinders.

Forty five out of 46 analysts polled by Reuters last week predicted the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee would raise the benchmark lending rate to 4.25 percent at the end of a two-day meeting.

Since then, economic data have been uniformly strong and only reinforced expectations that the MPC will hike again a month after it voted to leave rates steady at 4.0 percent by a margin of eight to one.

Consumer debt and house prices keep rocketing, high street sales are booming, and surveys show that even the manufacturing sector is benefiting from the upturn in global demand despite the strength of sterling.

"It would be surprising if the MPC were not to act on Thursday. We continue to expect a 25 basis point hike at this meeting and possibly another one in August," said Lorenzo Codogno, co-head of European economics at Bank of America.

Futures markets are predicting rates will hit at least 4.75 percent by the end of the year.

But with inflation still running well below the BoE's target of 2.0 percent and high uncertainty about the effect higher borrowing costs will have on debt-laden consumers, analysts expect the bank to lift rates only gradually.

LEADING THE CYCLE

A hike in the benchmark lending rate to 4.25 percent on Thursday would take British borrowing costs even further above the level of the euro zone and the United States.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave euro zone benchmark rates at 2.0 percent when it announces its monthly decision 45 minutes after the BoE.

U.S. rates are even lower, at just 1.0 percent, though the Federal Reserve signalled this week that it may be ready to start raising rates again soon, while also suggesting it too would probably take a gradualist approach.

The gap between Britain and other G7 nations should help support the pound and temper the need for further rate increases in the months ahead by keeping inflationary pressures in check.

Still, analysts said that with economic activity strengthening, the BoE would find it hard to keep rates down for long, particularly as the half percentage point of rate rises since November seems to have done little so far to dent consumer demand.

"Solid growth momentum, a rapid erosion in the output gap, household sector strength and revisions to the Bank's forecasts will be the main factors behind the decision," said George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank.

"Sub-neutral interest rates in this environment are looking increasingly difficult to justify."

Indeed, the minutes of the last MPC meeting a month ago noted that it would be appropriate to remove some of the monetary stimulus in due course.

Probably the only thing that is likely to keep the MPC from raising rates at this meeting is the presentational issue of lifting rates when inflation is running at just 1.1 percent.

That is just two tenths of a point from the level at which BoE Governor Mervyn King would be forced to write a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to explain why inflation is so far below the 2.0 percent target.

Brisbane L 08:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Widely expected BoE rate hike said to give GBP limited support as end to rising cycle likely by end of summer. Closure of carry trades and reduced interest by hedge funds also signals reduced buying interest.
reuters

Gold Coast martin 07:55 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
good evening gentlemen....apart from all the upcoming data one factor that is weighing heavily on the aud is the slowing down of the chinese economy which will slow down commodity demand from australia.Add to that,the japanese repatriation of overseas assetts that has been happening gradually over the last 3 weeks as i posted before...also as japanese companies have been going off shore to china,the demand for commodities from australia TO JAPAN is gradualling decreasing...all these variables are all $aud negative and must be taken into consideration when one is forming a medium to long term strategy in relation to the aud... good trades to all....

Hong Kong Qindex 07:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:41 GMT - I just sent you an e-mail.

HK Byron 07:49 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, sorry, what "things" i mentioned last night? i think i didn't tell any joke... shall be serious...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
sp// it looks to me the aud and nzd are being squeezed hard for those longs if they can't withstand this squeezing, a dive hard and fast will set in v. good buying entry these two days.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
mumbai jay 07:00 GMT - I am not closely monitoring the market.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:41 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Byron, are you really serious on the "thing" you mentioned last night? :D

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:41 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
qindex, I have prepared a new style for you on the lobster, kindly sent me the fax and I will fax you the menu for that night.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:24 GMT - I like to taste good lobster.

HK Byron 07:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, :) That's no problem for me!

sgp sp 07:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, lobsters on friday? poor me, missing out as usual...:(

PAR 07:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
BOE will raise rates today because they are well aware that the 1.4 % reported UK inflation is just a bogus political inspired number aimed at wage moderation. Actual inflation in the UK as in the rest of Europ is much higher than official statistics show. So BOE is using the excuse of high house prices to raise rates. High house prices as high oil prices can not be reduced by raising interest rates. As a first year economic student learns the price is a function of supply and demand and that is not different with houses or oil whatever the BOE migth think or say.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
small long eur/chf 1.55

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Byron, we usually don't trade that night... hehehe.

HK Byron 07:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AB... Does there have any wireless internet connection? we may miss big move of market when we having big food... LOL

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:24 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
bc// this eur might change its pace to 300 up, 200 down, 300 up 200 down........

Please let us know if you have a chance to visit us in hk so that we can share the nice food with you too in the future!

Dr. Q, we DO have lobster on Fri. :)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE, am interested your bias on aud/jpy looks like the pair gets narrower and narrower now.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:20 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, I think dlr/jpy worth a small short 109.85...if seen.

Juneau CAR 07:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
NYC re gold proxies: The obvious ones would be Newmont and Barrick (except Barrick hedges). But Barrick also has made the most money-lol.

I am more into the junior speculation stocks.

Hecla and CDE, PAAS are doing real well as major silver proxies which do better than gold, but more volitility.

I like juniors that have the goods coming out of a bear market; and metals districts e.g. sudbury Ontario. Largest nickel, with PGM's, copper deposit in the worlld. e.g. FNX, UMJ. PFN(PGM;s) and MUM (just drilling, no goods yet).

For the silvers CDU seems real strong, CZN (old hunt silver/zinc mine, but no permit yet!,FAN HUnter Dixon, QTR, Redcorp RDV(deposit, but no road. MAI has the silver/gold goods and and maybe happened onto a huge copper poryphery. Sinking adit into mainn vein that runs for miles (Argentina)

Hope this helps. I own most of those.

FCO for cobalt.

Ldn Hat 07:12 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 06:51 Hey ML the BOC decision time is 12PM London time so 11GMT

MONACO OGA 07:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 06/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2160), 40 pips higher than Wednesday's opening. The market stopped on the 1,2170 we had been calling for quite some time now (200 periods moving average on the daily chart). The US currency kept on depreciating after the FOMC but the market seems more concerned over geopolitical worries and a growing scandal about torture going on in Iraq, while some good ISM April data was barely noticed. The bearish USD bias of the market has been confirmed the last two days, with oil hitting 14 years highs and metals looking bid. Supports at 1,2100 and 1,2050, with crutial resistance at 1,2180. Above opens way to 1,2350-1,2450 medium term. Watch out today and tomorrow for the US employment data, they will be the key figures for the end of this week. Overall we are now bullish and we'll be looking for purchases around 1,2050.

Data out today:

UK CIPS PMI services April expected 58.7 08.30 GMT
UK BOE rate policy expected +0.25% at 4.25% 11.00 GMT
EURozone ECB rate policy expected unchanged at 2.00% 11.45 GMT
US nonfarm productivity Q1 expected 3.5% 12.30 GMT
US initial jobless claims expected 2971K 12.30 GMT
US FOMC minutes 18.00 GMT

Gold at 393.00, with WTI June at 39.66

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 109.10). The pair has been hovering inside 108.30-109.20 but is looking toppish above 109,50-60 and short time charts favour a test and break of 108.00 supportive zone.
EUR/JPY (currently 132.75) gathering strenght to break 132.90 resistance. Support at 131,50, target higher between 133 and 133,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7930) following EUR/USD and consolidating since yesterday inside 1,7870-1,8000. For today a 25bp rate hike is widely expected and priced in, so watch out for kneejerk reactions after announcement. Support at 1,7870 then 1,7800 and 1,7700, resistances at 1,8000 then 1,8150 (50 periods moving average on the daily chart). The market seems rather bullish, but charts show a different picture and GBP is not out of the woods yet as long as 1,8200 has not been printed. Overall we are neutral.
EUR/GBP (0,6785) reflecting GBP's weakness over the crosses (GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY). A reverse head and shoulders pattern is confirming, next target on the upsides is somewhere around 0,6860-80. We have now turned bullish medium term and we'll be looking to buy on 0.6740-50 then 0,6700-10 .
Have a nice day,

Olivier

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:09 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Seems dlr/jpy join the dlr/cad to pull up the USD /for a bounce.

mumbai jay 07:00 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q.. What is your take on EUR and EUR/JPY today pl.
TIA.

Bristol David 07:00 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Glenn whoops... of course it is..sorry about that

clon glenn 06:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
David I think it's 11:00GMT/12 midday BST ?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
this eur/jpy testing 100 dma

Bristol David 06:56 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT its 12 midday GMT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
but the 100 hrly sma holding well for the past few days now at 1.1526

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
sp, replace aud/nzd short limit at 1.1550/60 area.

ICT ML 06:51 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
London HAT, good morning to you......what time (local) is the rate announcement? I may leave a sell stop order, still thinking about it

singapore DG 06:44 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JMI, Do you also think that if cable hits 1.80 today and comes off, could we see more retracement if good payrolls tomorrow. Plus want do you think overall cable as now it seems no rate hike in US till probably August? Cheers DG

Bristol David 06:43 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hat totally agree I had an overnight order in at
17978...but as it was not filled, decided on this two pronged approach..

Now lets see if this ams uptrend line gets broken

Have a good trading day

Ldn Hat 06:38 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Bristol David I have a strong feeling that BOC will leave rates as they are, but accompany strong statement for the next decision the selloff of GBP/USD to come after the decision I will wait for 1.7970/80 to short. IMHO Thanks

Bristol David 06:35 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Cable at 1.7950 and will add more nearer 1:80 if we see it.

1/4% rate rise is expected..so I feel priced in
1/2% not going to happen, and the small chance of no change, would I feel see us heading back towards 1:7800

Brisbane L 06:11 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY up on unfounded rumor of another North Korean missile launch. No launch has been confirmed. Earlier
this morning, North Korea was looking to test an engine for a missile that may or may not be able to reach North America.
Reuters Article today

ICT ML 06:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
JFB...thanks for the compliment.....hope you are holding your own against the beast as well.


Stupid charting workstation has just started crashing again, so I will be sitting out again it looks like.

Chambery FR JFB 05:58 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Morning Razvan :-) Am very busy in the house, so not much time to post here... Hope you are doing well lately :-) Back to my "houseworks" :-) Happy trades to you :-)

Bucharest Razvan 05:49 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Morning JFB! What's up? it's been a while.. ;)

Chambery FR JFB 05:45 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Hakuna Matata 04:17 GMT May 6, 2004
Morning :-) Along with Farmacia, ICT ML is the other Beast Master... GL GT :-)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
limit order.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:32 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
short eur 1.2180 s/l 1.2218

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
sp, just review some daily charts on aud and nzd history.

We could probably see aud/nzd 1.11 again and this will go with aud and nzd enroute to .8 and .71 (or near fig target) in about 1 year time.

Then, when US economy is real bad, the aud and nzd will not draw any US interest.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:12 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
JIMHO, eur, touched upper bollinger band on dialy and think price will continue the narrowing of band b4 next upmove.

Selling will be safer for today.

wisconsin tim 05:02 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
well i'm buying aud ~ 7285-55 or selling ~7345

kinda in no man's land but what do I know
gl/gt

Ltn th 05:01 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Minessota// I was hoping for a reasonable buying opportunity in the next 2 or 3 hours, but the Car bomb in Iraq may muck things up.

Minnesota U-genius 04:43 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hello, does anyone have any views on AUD/USD?
My system is indicating Sell on 1 HR chart.
GL/GT
TIA

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:37 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks.

Ltn th 04:36 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
We are well into the pre-budget leak season.

Ltn th 04:35 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AB// I was referring to the federal budget early next mo.

Ltn th 04:34 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L. Golden week is often volatile, yet it seems to anticipate or accentuate trends. I hear 73 and 77 from farming and minerals lobby groups. I suspect that oil will impact RBA and others modelling.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:34 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
th// when will the speech be?

Tokyo Hakuna Matata 04:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Ltn, I just looked at the archive for his/her posts and thanks for the heads up. I will keep a watch for farmacia's posts.
farmacia, could I have your gbp/$ view for the short & medium term please?

Brisbane L 04:24 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th Hi, Martin is possibly correct with his outlook, however as we all know the timing can be anyones guess with the market in such disarray at the moment its hard to pinpoint it. Much will depend as we all know on the numbers and reaction to the US data also RBA speech in the morning .

Ltn th 04:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo. I am not a regular cable trader but farmacia's track record seems impressive.

Tokyo Hakuna Matata 04:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody give me some idea about whose posts to follow for Gbp/$ on this forum ? I mean who are the regular people who trade this pair and have a good track record? I usually trade this pair for my account and would like the advice of regulars. Thank you.

Ltn th 04:11 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L// I must confess to a sneaking admiration of Martins bravery as we are waiting for St. Peter to speak.

NYC JC 04:10 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Juneau, what are the best Gold stocks to own that mirror gold futures prices closest, tic for tic? When the mining companies hedge, it screws up with the up and down nature of the stock to the gold futures...TIA pal

Brisbane L 03:28 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR many thanks - interest rates rose in 1994 and causing a collapse in the USD via the Bond Market , Greenspan is obviously bearing it in mind this time around.
At the time I was holding Long USD/DMK and wasnt expecting such a negative reaction to a hike in rates by the Fed

Brisbane L 03:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Australia PM Details A$5.3B Science, Innovation Package

Juneau CAR 03:21 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Agree again Brisbane:

Iraq war costs could easily become the achilles heel. Inflation caused by the Vietnam war caused gold to go to $850 and interest rates to near 20%.

This time though we may not be able to fight our way out of the huge debt. That is what buffet is betting.

Being a mining stock trader and not a currency trader though, not sure how high interest rates will causue the dollar to fall?

Chicago YM 03:13 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Thinking of buying NZD$, around 6340-6350
Opinions wanted.

Van jv 02:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR///Before calling 1.15 or even 1.17,...we should wait for Friday empl. data.....and following reactiion to those..try to guess next st and mt move....seing DT line broken, higher lows, I do not expect more than 1.18-1.1920 on correction/retest

Chicago JMI 02:42 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
singapore DG 02:39 GMT May 6, 2004
I think it is priced it, but it might spike up to 1.80 and fall again.

singapore DG 02:39 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone think it likely cable will head over 1.80 if the BOE raises by .25 or is it priced in?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:35 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AUS Trader 00:40 GMT May 6, 2004


Your account wasn't wiped out during the last attack towards .71???

Interesting for us to see big bear (martin) and big bull (AUS Trader) here.

Let's see.....

No doubt to buy but .8 target currently is a DREAM with China slowing down quickly.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
bc// gd morning,

maybe I like 3 steps up, two steps down, .... LOL.

Good trades as always.

ny amc 01:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
melbourne and shanghai...............any views/thoughts on aud/usd. thanks

melbourne farmacia 01:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 23:40 GMT May 5, 2004
Remember this:
melbourne farmacia 13:20 GMT April 20, 2004
IMO - before everyone starts calling for euro sub 1.1500 levels, we must focus on the first test of euro's long term channel line which currently stands @ 1.1700 fig. I'm expecting a decent retracement from this level of some 400 odd pips before another possible downside attempt. But as we all know nothing is 100% in this market...this retracement rebound might turn out to test 1.2900 again as the Dollars long term bear cycle is still in play. That said, my next major cycle comes in on 5th May, until then i'm just playing the flow, be it long or short. GT

Many forum members have been pointing this trend line out for weeks now. Breaking this line was not going to happen first time round..... and as bc said once, we all have the same information in front of us ( charts ) The skill is knowing how to read this information. GT

shanghai bc 01:22 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX 00:29 -- Good morning..Thanks for the info..Good trades and forecasts..

SFX -- Good morning..

nyc sa 01:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
"the looming oil crisis will dwarf 1973 " story on marketwatch.com by Erdman , interesting reading .

Gen dk 00:53 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 00:49 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Both spot gold and EUR/USD will turn around if crude oil is going to trun around from its recent high of 39.74.

Brisbane L 00:47 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
News White House seek $25 billion extra from Congress to pay for Iraq is admission war costs mounting more rapidly . Bush had hoped to postpone debate on extra spending until after November elections, but the rapid pace of spending in Iraq raised fears that Pentagon accounts will dry up in October.
This I feel may be the achilles heel of the USD

AUS Trader 00:40 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD can't sustain last week's under-shoot below .7250
m/t bias remains side to up.
buy/accumulate on dips to .7250 & add on break above .7350 for .7600->.8000->.8200 m/t targets.

OK SZ 00:34 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, ok thanks for the reply:)

Hong Kong Qindex 00:33 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
bombay manindar 00:31 GMT - Use crude oil and EUR/USD as trading reference. I can only follow a limited items in Hong Kong.

Singapore Sfx 00:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

bc - welcome back !

Hong Kong Qindex 00:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 00:28 GMT - Crude oil : One can see a triple top in a monthly chart.

bombay manindar 00:31 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
hi mr qindex
any comments on cable and gold?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:29 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:23 GMT - Good morning! I have a feeling that EUR/USD will turn around together with crude oil.

OK SZ 00:28 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Is there a double top on the crude oil chart?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:27 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:26 GMT May 6, 2004
Crude Oil (NYMEX) : Is it going to break through 40 mark?


The congested area of my monthly cycle charts is projected at 35.13 - 39.76 and the mid-point reference is 37.45. The current expected trading ranges are as follow :-

... // 37.45 - 38.03 - 38.61 - 39.18 - 39.76 // ...


A projected resistant level has been established at 39.83 - 39.87.

shanghai bc 00:23 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   

Do not want to be too simplistic in this market,but Eur/Usd climbed down using round figures like 1.22.1.21.1.20.1.19 and 1.18 as the bouncing points on the way down,two steps down ,one step bounce..No reason to believe why it has suddenly got lifted out of this comfy predictable moves to shoot to the Moon....1.19,1.20,1.21.1.22 with the corrections all the way around round figures even in this upmove,two steps up,one step down..Till the steps become too fast to follow..Fwiw..

Brisbane L 00:17 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin agree we will probably see Aud peak later today and lower into the US jobs data, but we could possibly see another try for 7350 first especially if Euro tries 1.2180 again, cant see market taking excessively short USD position with the Jobs data hanging over its head as we may get a suprise to the upside. JIMHO

Gold Coast martin 00:06 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
QUITO..I for one have neve gave a guaranteed 116 by next week...in this business if anyone does that they are irational people and if people believe such things they are irrational themselves...enough said...back to the market....

Juneau CAR 00:02 GMT May 6, 2004 Reply   
Great post, great analogy!:


Brisbane L 22:21 GMT May 5, 2004
quito_valdez at yahoo very true, I was watching a programe about China and as you say many have not realized the tranformation that has already occured and its not in China's interested to cause a slump in their ecomony and doubt they will be able to pull it off its like try to stop the Industrial revolution in the 19 century

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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