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Forex Forum Archive for 05/07/2004

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Global-View Reseacrh 22:15 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Getting Inside Greenspan's Head (FXA)

The April US non-farm payrolls numbers and for that matter nearly every component in the latest month's employment report indicated a labor market kicking into gear over two years into a recovery and more recently behind robust growth rate fuelled itself by strong corporate profits, solid consumer spending and an extraordinary round of tax cuts and spending increases. Firms, households and the government are spending. Perhaps not with reckless abandon. But in a synchronized fashion that has not been observed in several years. For most observers of central banking, the case for tightening policy is strong. It is stronger today than Tuesday when then Fed chose to leave rates on hold at 46-year low, but it was arguably strong on Tuesday. CLICK HERE for the Full Story in Our New Research Section

dc fxq 20:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
... 10-years yielding a sizable 3.767% over the fed funds rate and no clear indication as to when the Fed will tighten monetary policy. Fed funds futures are pricing a 92% probability of a quarter point hike at the June meeting and a 45% likelihood of a half point move...but like all forward indicators, they are subject to error. Just over a month ago futures were looking for the first hike in September.

briefing.com

clon glenn 20:31 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

good weekend everybody....see you sunday night for more of the same!

Gen dk 20:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

clon glenn 19:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

CK/GEP/JWD - learned my lesson after a complex straddled possie was badly whipsawed earlier in the week with the FOMC announcement. Made it back today when my long euro rode up the spike immediately pre-announcement...credit to my platform too - filled my hastily thrown-in stop to lock 50 pips in with never a hint of a rejection or re-quote.

ICT ML 19:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well friends, you all have a nice weekend. If anyone happened to take note of who (banks or specs) was on the bids in cable and euro during the pre data fiasco and is willing to share that with me, please contact me through Jay.

I ended up not trading after my positions were spiked out....as it is not wise to trade while throwing stuff in a fit of rage.

Next week will be interesting.....cable being supported by carry traders in gbp-jpy again, and the smart folks dumping euro for Sterling....but that shouldn't support it forever.

$Cad hit the weekly channel top again today, $Yen is close to hitting its Trendline around 113, Aussiie should sell off off into oblivion in the next several weeks.

KL KL 19:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gep, what area in EUR CROSSES WOULD YOU LOOK TO SHORT.Give me afew like vs usd, jpy aud

AUSTIN JWD 18:40 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

Do you take any stock in the advice of trading light on the days that financial info is released?

Dallas GEP 18:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
No CK, in general that is NOT a good idea. The only contra trade I am leaving open over the weekend is the eur/aud short. In fact, presently I have no other trades open at this time.

dc fxq 18:29 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
more conspiracy theory, right?

Dublin CK 18:28 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:13 GMT May 7, 2004

I had used that technique today on a demo account to see if it would work, because in the past, last month for example it would have reaped massive dividends. However....

Stopped on both.

Defo something to learn from in the future.

Gep are you going to do another technique that you mentioned previously. The contarian trade over the weekend? See if it gaps the opposite way?

AUSTIN JWD 18:27 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
CK,

Whoa, so you friend got stopped off with losses on both ends, very bad whipsaw...

Dallas GEP 18:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OILY. I had a good friend of mine place an order and it filled at 1.6920 earlier.

Dublin CK 18:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Have a safe and fun weekend everyone.

Dr Q thks for all the freebie info

Jay & John thks for running the forum

To everyone else - next week is a new week to make money.

Ps: Martin, I respect the dogmatic way you have been posting your views on Aud. U are a man with great foresight.

The beer garden is calling me "Colum, COLUM" and i cant keep a crisp pint of bulmers waiting.

Dallas GEP 18:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Under the conspiracy theory, the FBI as you know has been investigating HOW the number got leaked the last time. I would not doubt that is is POSSIBLE that in a cooperative effort with the "Guilty party or parties" Bad info COULD have been leaked prior to official release to see WHO may have placed orders based on that bad info. THESE are NOT small players!!!! I would NOT want to be one of those caught in this deal.

nyc Observor 18:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
maybe your friend shud have layered

Hong Kong Qindex 18:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 17:56 GMT - Good night and have a nice weekend.

Dallas GEP 18:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
This was the FIRST time I can remember that the market swung so fiercely the WRONG way just prior to release. I had a friend who tired to bracket the market by taking a SHORT @ 1.2071 with a STOP at 1.2110 and HE ALSO had a long ORDER @ 1.2130 with a stop @ 1.2050. So market takes off LONG at first STOPS him out @ 1.2110 on the original 1.2071 short, THEN takes the 1.2130 LONG order and THEN of course GOES SHORTwhen REAL number is announced and STOPS him out again @ 1.2050 on his LONG from that 1.2130. THIS SHOULD NEVER have happened but it did and it was a HUGE position for him anyway. The REALLY bad thing about this is his platform WOULD NOT allow him to adjust stops at the time it was rapidly moving. THERE are MANY lessons to learn from this.

AUSTIN JWD 18:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
So, have we determined what caused the spike in EUR/USD right befor the plummeting drop a few hours ago after the job news?

UAE oil man 18:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well gep, anything 1,6900-40...just remember that one has a VIP HIGH_FLYER card ,and over 1,6980 all bets are off =>1,736 next.

sgp sp 17:56 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

Thank u for ur concern......I would like to wish u good night and hope u have a nice weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:50 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 17:38 GMT - I hope you dad can recover soon. My e-mail address is posted in my website (qindex dot com).

sgp sp 17:38 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

Sure, no problem....if need be, I will ask ab for ur e-mail but I think I will reserved that for extreme cases becos I do not wish to take up too much of ur valuable time.

And I think some misinformation was given, it was my Dad who is ill.

:)

Dallas GEP 17:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
It never ceases to amaze me just how good JAY is at what he does. THANKS from all of us.

dc fxq 17:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Although the comment below refers directly to US Treasuries it aplies equally to FX.

"Treasuries: The market continues its downward spiral, as firms revise Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, bringing them up to the June 30 FOMC meeting, looking for the rate ratchet ride to begin. Early, just before the release, in a moment strangely reminiscent of the previous payrolls report, "somebody thought they had the number before hand," the wrong number in this case. The rumor, which caused a run up in the currencies against the dollar and a pop in prices in treasuries, had been "much, much lower, but, after the last go around [the previous, actual release leak], the market fell for it."

briefing

Hong Kong Qindex 17:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 17:30 GMT - Good morning, thank you for the dinner. It was very nice.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:31 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 17:22 GMT - Good morning! It was a very nice dinner and the French wine was very good. We can communicate through e-mail. I am sorry to learn that your grandma is very sick.

st. pete islander 17:30 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, if you are still around ..... you have mail!

HK Byron 17:30 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q... Tonight was really great! Thank you very much!

Have a good night!

sgp sp 17:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

How's was dinner? I heard the wine was an excellent one. Makes me hungry listening to ab and Byron talking abt dinner.
Thanks for ur g/j levels.....appreciate it very much.

gt 2 u

P/S : would u like to join us in my conference room?

Dallas GEP 17:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Angus. I have contacted Jay in order that you might be able to get in contact with me via email or phone. I will no longer acknowledge your CLUELESS posts here.

Sydney Agnus 17:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Syd gm, thank you for leaving some of those numbers for me! We just might hook up after all, huh mate?

Hong Kong Qindex 17:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:12 GMT May 7, 2004
GBP/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 194.71* - 196.39 - 198.08 - 199.77 // 201.45 ...


The mid-point reference of the upper barrier is positioning at 200.61 and the odds are in favour of taking short position.

Juneau CAR 17:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bloodbath in metals:

Question: The US bond market is likely to keep falling. Will this not weaken the dollar? And if this is true how does this square with interest rates making the dollar stronger?

And what is causing dollar strength now and do most of the traders see dollar weakness later this year?

I am a mining stock trader and am sitting mostly on cash now except for a couple of nickel cooper plays.

TIA

Sydney gvm 17:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Angus - mate go watch some late night TV - there's plenty of date line phone numbers for lonely guys

Dallas GEP 16:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OIL Main, I was going to board the train @ 1.6940, Do you have a better suggestion in order that I might NOT miss out on the fun????

Livingston nh 16:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Van JV - fwiw - the Fed (so far) has not monetized the price increase in oil (unlike the two '70s disruptions) - last Fall the Fed actually tightened the money supply while the oil price rose // I don't know whether this will continue

quito_valdez at yahoo 16:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 16:40 GMT//
Could not agree more..folks like GEP make this forum worth visiting. No one can be right 100% of the time, those who forget that are the "chop busters", those who appreciate gurus like GEP posting (like the rest of us!) can benefit.

Folks, always remember to look at the big picture first, then the 1min/1hr candle second. That way you are never surprized. On the wall in front of me I've a printout of a 10 year eur/usd chart just to remind me of the big-big picture and another of the 5 yr. for a smaller "big" picture and another of the 1 year. This is why neither good news nor bad news affects this graph..the path of major currencies is predestined by those who control the world's money. Cycles permit underdogs like China and India to flourish when majors permit (by cycling). Without preordained cycles the world could never develop no more than a peach tree would bear fruit without a winter. You can believe that or not but numbers simply don't lie. Look at the big 10 year cycle picture.

UAE oil man 16:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
passengers flight euro-aud 1,63 ...please remain sitted...
have your boardin pass 1,69 ready ,so we can promptly take off..temperature will Be ok as long as 1,6980 skies stay clear..offcourse NO REFUNDS..

take-off .......

Dallas GEP 16:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
It's a very starnge pair but over the last 4 weeks or so EUR/AUD has LONGED over 800 PIPS. Oil Man's post deserves some VERY careful consideration as I beleive as well that EUR/AUD may indeed be TOPPING.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I will leave my eur/usd shorts cooking over the weekend. I hope everyone has a good and safe week see you on the other side.

Sydney gvm 16:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia 114 ish is my gut feel but I am systematic in approach with client money so might be long this time next week

Van jv 16:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
St.Louis SAJ/////Quote:
However, with geopolitical and economic uncertainties looming larger in the oil-rich Gulf States and in Asia, we believe that markets will increasingly focus on alternative possible price trajectories. As a consequence, we flesh out two alternative scenarios around our revised central case.

In one — our worst case scenario — serious political troubles in Saudi Arabia trigger a supply disruption. If the Kingdom is not able to play its marginal supplier-of-last-resort role in today’s taut market conditions, we might well re-visit price levels not seen since the second oil shock (USD 80 /bbl in 2004 dollars) before the transfer of income from oil consumers to producers chokes off global demand sufficiently to clear the market. At the other end of the spectrum, a second scenario involves an easing of political tensions in the Middle East, combined with a sharp slowdown in China that would send prices plummeting to the low twenties; we assume in this alternative that OPEC discipline would weaken if its members had to cope with a sudden loss of revenue and income

stockholm za 16:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy >> fwiw ..they help me out every day..
HK Kevin >> Well done - Thats Happy trading

And To the educated traders -
re:- stockholm za 16:41 GMT May 5, 2004

fwiw ... EUR/USD - GBP/USD :-
we have not broken the bearish price channel as yet .
be carefull with counting chickens...
Happy trades...


dc fxq 16:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
stockholm za 16:15 GMT May 6, 2004

looks like you had it pegged yesterday, za.

ny amc 16:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
tarders=traders

ny amc 16:40 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dallas...gep..............trust me Dallas there are people here who want to see your posts and learn from you. to all the experienced tarders here forget about the jerkoffs that bust your chops you guys are helping alot of us out and we appreciate it immensely

Newcastle GH 16:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
I agree with this stategy. This is the first time since the fall began that my system (term loosely applied) has shown signs of a turn up at all!
You can take multiple lots with very tight stops and you won't lose much, but you just might be on the turn!
Overall, I wouldn't bother as there will be much better opportunities next week i am sure!

melbourne farmacia 16:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gvm - u still looking for 1.1500 euro within two week period ?

Angus - go to bed mate.

Wisconsin tim 16:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Like Gold and Haifa said this is not for real investment money hence my possie size (I should of noted this clearer) but anyhow there are some great resources out there both in books and webs
Options as a Strategic Investment is a good starter

g weekend all

-----
Bucharest Razvan 07:43 GMT May 7, 2004
Tim, HAIFA ac, Goldcoast martin:

Hey guys.. could you point me to some resources (websites, documents you might be willing to mail me, etc) so that I may understand what you're talking about? :) That's an area I always wanted to cover but never did.. Thanks..

houston st 16:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

I thought I saw a shooting star formation on my 60 min usd/jpy chart earlier, but was a false alarm, however it does look like this pair's trying to run out of steam..if you trade it stay frosty..gl.

quito_valdez at yahoo 16:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
For those of you who may be a bit overwhelmed by this move (which gives me plenty of weekend money!!) look at the 1day/6 month candle chart. This move is the "massive short" eur/usd I was talking about a few days ago soon to come "anytime now" that now is here. My USD check is lookin' nice. (remember that?) It doesn't take much finesse, math, charting and hokus pokus mumbojumbo to have seen this OBVIOUS move. This move is exactly like the ones preceeding it like 8 beads on a string from 2/18, neither early nor late...right on time. And it ain't done yet, needs more than today to belly whomp the temporary bottom. Keep shorting. Hope you all got in on this JUICY one, if not there's more to go. Now the eur/usd 1.17 & 1.16 players may have a fighting chance..hope so!!

B-747... look at 5 & 10 year chart..in about a month we'll see 500-600 + pips and your 1.24+ as this move is a repeat starting 6/30/2003 ending 8/31/2003. We've one more stair to go before we descend for 3-4 years in the normal 10 yr. cycle.

UAE oil man 16:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Euro-aud 6 months + triple top 1.6949, sell here 1,6900-40 sl 80 and 1,63 tp

gl

houston st 16:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

my two favorite posts from this week:

Chi Sammy 19:21 GMT May 6, 2004
What seems to be your beef, angus?

Rivonia PipPirate 09:07 GMT May 6, 2004
china 外汇金銀分析 6 Looks like you have squared off all your trades for today.

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Back to more useful things. I THINK the BIG moves are over and contra moves will be in play. THIS IS DANGEROUS howver unless you maintain tight stops. For example, I think EUR/USD might go back up to 1.1920 anyway. So a long from 1.1885 with a stop @ 1.1865 MAY work. The danger is that we MIGHT have some continuations but with tight stops the risk can be minimize.

GVI john 16:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
We just updated the GVI Market Tracker. Note especially bond yields.

CLICK HERE

Sydney gvm 16:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GEp its fun mucking around buying/selling a few here - a few there - as you say - but once you start putting 20 buck trades on (as my system did in 3 currencies tonight) - time starts to shrink - doesnt it?

GL/GT

Newcastle GH 16:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
You seem to have had your share of whacks on the head this week! I am sure most people who have seen your posts for a long time know that you don't hide any failures and aren't afraid to admit them. You're not providing a subscriber service so people should be thankful and if they don't like your post just ignore them! GL

HK Nicole 16:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
martin, how do you view the AUD from the level of 0.7035? go to 0.68 or bounce back first? TIA.

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BTW that PARTICULAR aussie long was close at .7230 for 10 pips PROFIT at @ 19:42 5/6/01 according to the time stamp on my platform and that was some 24 trades AGO!!!!

nyc jk 16:05 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ok fair enought then GEP. missed all the action this mrng myself, had an important meeting that had to be today, bad timing unfortunately! gl

dc fxq 16:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
rotflma!

Hong Kong Ahe 16:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
jv 15:01 - I agreed with yours. US bonds keep declining due to the hope of earlier rate hike of FED. That may lead to a collapse of dollars as in 90s. US is having a hill mountain of Debt. HK Monetary Authority has gained 168 billions at the 1Q of 2004 but lost it all within the month of April 2004 due to the hope of earlier rate hike of FED. It will force them to sell out more US bonds in this month of May. Other Big Asian holders will do the same. Then it will become a big headache for Alan Greenspan as US is still borrowing money by Issueing more Bonds to financing their current account deficit. Dollar will collapse once the market gets the alert no sooner or later. At that time, everytime there was US good data, the dollar will dive deeper and deeper.

Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Quite frankly JK, I don't post all my trades anymore because I am more focused on building up equities in various accounts. I do as many as 15-20 trades a day culmultive and no longer have the time I once did to keep all this updated on GV. Plus it seemed the only people that gave a shittt about it lately where the ones that wanted to bust my chops over some idiotic point or another so basically I didn't see the point. Why waste energy with all that???

St. Louis SAJ 15:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Van jv -- Interesting figures. Could you translate/define them just a bit, pls? ''Disruption'', for instance, is defined ?how?

Many thanks!

nyc Observor 15:54 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
JK - it's called accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative

Van jv 15:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
No response to comment on bonds---must pour oil on the starting fire
Exhibit 2

Alternative scenarios: Disruption vs. Glut

Brent $bbl

Baseline Disruption Glut



2004 Q1e 31.7 31.7 31.7

2004 Q2e 35.8 38.5 31.0

2004 Q3e 33.3 68 26.0

2004 Q4e 30.3 75 21.7

2004e 32.8 53 27.6



2005 Q1e 30.0 65 22.5

2005 Q2e 30.2 60 24.2

2005 Q3e 30.4 56 26.3

2005 Q4e 30.7 55 27.0

2005e 30.3 55 24.8




e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Sources: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research.

OK SZ 15:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, yes sir, you do the same:)

houston st 15:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

gold down $10 & some change..oh the humanity...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:50 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 15:41 GMT May 7, 2004
Plan your work and work your plan lol. You have a good and safe weekend.

houston st 15:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

fwiw, usd/jpy @ new high for 2004. gl/gt.

nyc jk 15:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP last AUD trade you posted was your long from .7220, what happened to that?

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Well all my Euro shorts are clsoed, all Auusie shorts are closed Lokking for contra trades for 20-30 pips now

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Covered my long USD/JPY from 111.21 at 112.22. And keep the short EUR overnight. Can't ask for more. Good night and have a great weekend.

OK SZ 15:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
the hardest part of days like this is watching the price fall and not being able to get in..for me that is ok but I bet for newbies they jump in all over the place. the afraid to miss the train syndrome. everyone have a great weekend..see ya sunday night.

UAE oil man 15:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i guess E$ longs will start panicking soon.

Sydney Angus 15:29 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Laughing more like it mate.

melbourne farmacia 15:27 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Angus - go to bed mate, or are you still watching big brother....

dc fxq 15:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
The July fed funds futures have pushed up the likelihood of a Fed move at the June meeting to an 88% chance of a 25 basis point hike and 44% chance of a 50 basis point bump. The dollar has been well bid against the majors, having tested either side of its recent range in the past few days against the euro.

briefing

Sydney Angus 15:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I am the master at getting out of trouble.

OK SZ 15:19 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I have weekly support coming in around 11860

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BTW there is talk of an exotic barrier at 1.1900. I am looking at some support coming up at 1.1880-1900 I will move stops if this support clears. Initially looking to test 1.1800 area again IMHO. GL GT

Van jv 15:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
US bonds keep declining--some 12 points from top now--if it persists it is/will be USD negative---checking history--1994 some 20 points down, but from 100---around June 2003 --20 p. down--what is behind that 2003 decline?-can not recall....

Tel-Aviv ZG 15:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
as we talk about it i get low 1.7840
fxq, i took consideration of the rate rais and i still thought it should at least take its formar low today 1.7851
London can, thanks again
gl,gd

OK SZ 14:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, sory my fingers not working too go this morning:)

OK SZ 14:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
farnacua, thanks for the heads up..gl, gt

dc fxq 14:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
This is a bit late but ...

Economic release: March wholesale inventories rose 0.6% as sales surged 2.7%. The result is a drop in the inventory to sale ratio to a new record low of 1.13 months -- screaming for accelerated inventory rebuilding over the coming quarters. Lack of available supply risks lost sales as extremely strong demand has left a 2.4% average jump in sales over the last two months.

briefing

dc fxq 14:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Tel-Aviv ZG 14:17 GMT - my take is the MPC raised this week and we have a v. strong probability of a June FOMC hike of 25 bps. EURGBP has been pressured because as we ll know the ECB will do nothing. Also unlike EZ data, UK and US numbers are typically strong, EZ's are not. FWIW.

london cam 14:54 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Tel-Aviv ZG 14:47 GMT May 7, 2004
london can,
thank you, but i still dont get what im looking at (GPBJPY) the cause or the result?

Cable often follows GBPJPY and also closely tied to EURO. Euro down would normally help cable drop. GBPJPY up would normally help cable rise. In effect, we have some temporary equilibrium in cable price. If GBPJPY drops today, I would expect cable to follow with a substantial move down.

All IMVHO.

melbourne farmacia 14:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 14:34 GMT May 7, 2004
My 1.17XX bounce happened, 400 odds pips, as expected. Current market moves are undertaking new cycle period from 5th may..
sa - swissy might cap 1.3005 for now.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Oilman. Hope you kept your stop at 1.2235 as posted! Good trades sir :)

HK Kevin 14:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
TelAviv DOR 14:36 GMT, I trade with a bank for mid-term (several days) trades. They don't have such facilities and even I have to cancel limit order by phone.
For intraday trades, I have another account at F??M.

Ldn 14:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
NZD/USD has been dragged lower by the continued fall in the
AUD and the metals, with gold dropping under $380 and the lows since October last year fall in the gold price is expected to accelerate with hedge funds said to be long the yellow metal, having funded these plays with low-yielding USD and other low yield currencies. The global tightening cycle is forcing a squeeze on these plays, as well as the high yielding currencies such as NZD & AUD. Further pressuring gold have been the reports in the last two weeks that France and Germany and maybe even Italy will start selling their gold reserves in order to offset their budget deficits, and put further pressure on the metals market. reuters

houston st 14:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

HK Kevin 14:43 GMT - what's the old saying: "I'd rather be lucky than good!" Perhaps this will make up for missing dining w/ the good Dr. & friends..have a great weekend and congrats again for your good fortune..gl/gt.

Tel-Aviv ZG 14:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
london can,
thank you, but i still dont get what im looking at (GPBJPY) the cause or the result?

OK SZ 14:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
euro has too much downward pressure now; the upmoves are very little..best to sit out or sell these brief rallies..me I am out..

HK Kevin 14:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
houston st 14:23 GMT, I can't join the dinner with Dr Qindex and other HK traders because of this appointment.
Normally I would cover my positions whatever it's at loss or in profit before important economiic figures. Also cancel the stop/profit orders after the profit/stop orders got hit. But this time, all happen in several minutes while I was giving a presentation to clients.

clon glenn 14:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Notty - thanks for the tip

Ldn 14:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
The dollar is taking flight across the board, helping push EUR/USD back toward a significant area of support around 1.1920/25 stops are seen below the 1.1920 level littlesupport below that until 1.1850.
IFR

Sydney alimin 14:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
blah i missed the big drop in eur/usd today!! hope someone here make big money....but looking at the spike up just before the drop i think i would have been stopped even if i got the direction right
good call Gold Coast Martin on the aud/usd!!

TelAviv DOR 14:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Kevin , you dont use OCO on your limits ?

nyc sa 14:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia ,ur view on $/sfr plz ?

OK SZ 14:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Remember what farmacia said the other day; looks as if the 117 fig will happen and then a big jump up again..wth

melbourne farmacia 14:32 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bottom line is 90% of traders got censored_ed today, including interbank dudes, so take your losses and move on..

UAE Oil man 14:32 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Oil Reaching 40..

$ is booming...


It's bonus time :)

london cam 14:31 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Tel-Aviv ZG 14:17 GMT May 7, 2004
take a look at the GBPJPY chart. This might be a factor
GL GT

sf mike 14:26 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 14:23 GMT // Sorry typo. ap is gap.

Spotforex NY 14:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Thanks amc.....

I know how 'tough' it is to book a loser...I have had my rough runs as well (I was stopped out of my euro shorts at 1.2180 two days ago).....A shame - but one cannot get 100% of any move...

The mistake I see most people make is trying to get 100% out of every ccy move.....When one starts to pray for breakeven as the best result of an open position - it is probably time to close it, take a break and re-evaluate their approach...

Nottingham 14:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
clon glenn 14:11 GMT

very rarely is criteria met which allows me to trade on data releases like these...but others are here for that so it's no big loss overall....worth watching euraud at these levels...testing major resistance, which could see good losses in the dollar cross if eur wins that particular battle...gl gt

ny amc 14:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sf..mike..........what did you mean by the "ap in september"

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
That is good advice Spotforex but sometimes the lesson is only learned when the money runs out. Looks like 1.1920 is the next support for eur/usd and I have intraday sell signal below that support. Next support should be around 1.1800-10 area.

NY KAY 14:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
spot NY you are right! but the speed of this movemnet today made me just forget what was my orginal trade...it ran so fast that passed my mental stop and then I was just paused to see this move

Newcastle GH 14:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Kay,

Many of us have been in that position. I know I have more than once. Spotforex NY is, of course, correct. Eventually, I learned that it is never too late to employ a money management strategy. So if you do not at this moment have a plan that you can live with then exit and cut your losses. From my experience: IT CAN GET WORSE!

houston st 14:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

HK Kevin 14:21 GMT - you should go to appointments more often..good trades.

HK Kevin 14:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
stockholm za 13:57, I must say I love FX too.
Just back home from a late appointment. I go long EUR/$ at 1.2032 and short USD/JPY at 109.66 today. Before I left the office for a meeting, I left profit lmit order for EUR at 1.2120 and stop order at b/e, and profit limit order for USD/JPY at 119.21 and stop order at 111.21. The sudden move before the employment payroll hit my both profit orders. The more interesting things to follow is it hit my stop order 1-3 mins afterwards.
So I am now short EUR from 1.2032 and long USD/JPY from 111.21.Now the prices are 1.1926 and 111.87.
The most impressive experience in my almost 15 years of fx trading trading life. This time, God really treats me not bad.

houston st 14:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

NY KAY 14:08 GMT - no one knows where $ is going for sure, but all signs currently point to a stronger $, at least near term..one of the cardinal rules of trading is to stop the bleeding and then you can focus & regroup..as already stated many times in this forum, money management is the no.1 priority when trading..I hope you are able to work this out..good luck.

ny amc 14:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ny. kay..................spotforex told me the same thing about 5 weeks ago and thank god I listened or my account today would be worth almost 0

Spotforex NY 14:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
NY Kay....

The kiss of death in trading is not having the proper risk management skill......I am sure you are thinking that by adding to your current losing position - you may get out of the trade with a break even (and a victory).....That is not the way to tackle the market.....

establish guidelines and a $ amount of risk on each trade.
It is the discipline that keeps one in the game.....

You should know where you would get out when the position was originally established...

good luck!

Tel-Aviv ZG 14:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Can anybody explain me why GBP is still refusing to cross 1.7851 even after what we had today? EURGBP just can't stop dropping?

USA Biscuit Boy 14:12 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Za sounds like those x's and y's helped you out today. Good trades!

sf mike 14:11 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Just exit Kay. Weekend is here and the ap in September could be closed next week for a target around 113.50.

clon glenn 14:11 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Notty - glad to hear you didn't get burned....g/l with the aussie

NY KAY 14:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i know it is wrong to add on your lossing position, but my short Dlr/Yen already run against me badly. :( hope to scape at NY close if there will by any profit taking...

Gen dk 14:05 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

stockholm za 13:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OooooPpSs....
Just have to love FX..

Is there any censored today ??
Happy safe trades to all........


houston st 13:54 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

just received this analysis in an email from a friend...

"With the three-month growth in payrolls at 236,000 and with other labor market indicators, such as unemployment claims at the end of April, pointing to further strength in the labor market, the missing link of the recovery story appears to have been found. When combined with signs that core inflation may be rising, we have to think that the Fed will likely raise rates at the June 30th meeting rather than wait until August 10th. Since the Fed suggested it would like to move in quarter-point increments, we think that the funds rate will be 1.25% at the end of this quarter, 1.5% at the end of the third quarter, and 1.75% at the end of the year."

Nottingham 13:49 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
clon glenn 13:44 GMT

thx mate everything just fine here...best bunch in nottm imo but then I'm biased :) personally I'm not likely to be involved in anything but aussie today (on the long side as part of system trades)...gl gt

hk ooozmeeh 13:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
MK i guess you have a lot of margin to support your cable long possie and wish it does not close below 1.7871 on the hourly chart.. GL/GT

GVI john 13:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 13:43 GMT May 7, 2004
Reprise of NY Opening Yen comments
The recent yen performance had been disappointing even before the resignation of Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda today. He was the top aide to PM Koizumi. Yen weakness is coming from four primary sources. The first has been the start of a pattern of rising interest rates abroad. Note that bond markets are moving ahead of the central banks. The second major factor has been concern about the impact of rising global oil prices on the economy, and the third has been a topping out of equity indices in Japan for now. Foreign investors are no longer rushing into Japanese equities. The fourth major concern is the prospective slowdown demand from the booming Chinese economy. Also major long-term players already made their commitments to long yen positions at the start of the current fiscal year around the $/yen 105-106 levels. Major resistance levels in the $/yen are just above the 111.00 line and then above 112.30. Exporters are said to be sellers up here, but they are unlikely to be able to stand in the way of significant adjustments by major position players.

For a free trial to GVI contact: [email protected]

houston st 13:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

eur/usd flirting w/ 200 dma..not looking good..

ICT ML 13:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
KAY...I think I have 113 as a channel top somewhere

clon glenn 13:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
nottingham...hope all ok trentside mate - how did you end up?

NY KAY 13:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
anyone what is the next rest. in YEN pls. Thanks

BEIRUT MK 13:39 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
still there is a chance to break 1.80

Livingston nh 13:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dat - goods producing in the report was a slower gain than March BUT there are two components - MFG and Const. - MFG showed a 21,000 gain

BEIRUT MK 13:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd at 1.7878 stop 1.7840

boulder dat 13:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i'm getting my numbers from the dismal scientist. interestingly, they give two different numbers. they aren't putting out the right number in their charting. these are the numbers that are initially released. but, instead are quoting a different number in their analysis. this would be the reason behind the discrepency. not sure who actually is at fault here, dismal scientist, or the government who do no wrong.

Livingston nh 13:26 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dat - manufacturing had the biggest jump in April (Mar was originally flat but revised higher - first gain since Noah built the Ark) - goods producing includes construction - that took a big jump in March // this is the side of the economy that is starting to kick in

dc fxq 13:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 13:20 GMT

"Manufacturing employment rose 21,000, and March was revised to show an increase of 9,000. Those were the first gains since July of 2000. " briefing.

Don't try to read too many negatives into the mfg number, it is still an improvement.

boulder dat 13:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
the change in goods producing employment, i.e. manufacturing is 42. last month was 82. the trend is actually moving down. this is what traders may be focusing on as it shows no growth in the manufacturing sector. mostly all of the gains were in the services sector. resonable to predict this as most of the u.s. is a service related economy. however, without growth in the manufacturing, don't look for any interest rate hikes any time soon.

Livingston nh 13:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dat - revisions up or down are confirmation of a trend change - when last month's figure came out there was a big revision to earlier releases - the ISM, beige book and Seasonals argued in favor of a stronger number and a possible revision to last month // the Fed will be watching bonds they can't let them get too far away -

Gold Coast martin 13:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BOULDER DAT....The reason for the FEDS patience is one word...THE ELECTION...

houston st 13:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

boulder dat 13:14 GMT - that revision was pretty significant..hiring is clearly picking up and for now the gains look sustainable..now expect $ to hang in there awhile longer..gt.

Gold Coast martin 13:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY...ARE YOU A BULL ANGUS?..lol....if you want longivity in this business change your attitude and be prepared to learn....manners would be a good start...

melbourne farmacia 13:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - good thanks mate, had euro orders to place before data but things moved early, so nothing filled, GT

boulder dat 13:14 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i'm looking over this data. one of the things that is most surprising is the revision up of last month. that really was a monstrous number. and then follow it up with this month. still, i'm doubtful that the fed will be in any hurry to move interest rates. there is a reason that they are being so patient.

houston st 13:14 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

btw, my charts show 200 dma on eur/usd @ 1.1960..needs to hold there, otherwise...gt.

OK SZ 13:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ST, thanks, and yes I as well. have a good weekend all..

houston st 13:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

OK SZ 13:02 GMT - that would be fine. good trades.

Miami OMIL - yes, I have become acquainted w/ some real money FX players that think I'm loco to not trade FX futures & also for leaving myself open to the wide spreads and lack of regulation w/ the spot brokers..I plan to rectify that soon. gl/gt.

QC WC 13:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
G-V, error 1135 keep on appearing.

Helsinki iw 13:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
based on the releases this afternoon I would be a seller of
EUR/CAD.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:05 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
To say the least Farmacia that kind of messed up my charts lol. Hope you are doing well mate.

slv sam 13:04 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:21 GMT May 7, 2004
i think most traders are euro long!!and if true that most loose..then 02/April may repeat itself!!GT

IT DID!!!GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Have a good one ST that is one of the things I will look into in the near future myself.

OK SZ 13:02 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ST, can I get your email from Jay?

melbourne farmacia 13:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well that was interesting ..

Lahore FM 13:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
after some rumination on the numbers I wud have my weekend start early.USD/CHFwill converge around 1.2840/50.GBP/USD around1.7940/50. Eur/USD at around 1.2050/60 by end of Friday session and new moves will start early monday from those points in Dollar's bullish mode.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
We will have to catch the next train ML looks like support (1.1950) might hold the show up for eur/usd IMHO.

houston st 12:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:51 GMT - same here..it's been a great couple of weeks..still expecting eur/usd to continue back up @ some point, but will be flexible & patient until then..looking to sell usd/jpy @ some point, but that point's not here yet..perhaps next week, but again in no hurry..looking to start trading the currency futures soon..after some research & soul-searching I believe that trading currencies is best done in the futures market, as I can't see any substantial benefits that would outweigh the lack of customer protection that seems to occur with the spot brokers..will continue to play the cash market for now, but at some point I will do most of my FX trading via the CME..fwiw..gl/gt & good weekend to all.

Brisbane L 12:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD has found support just above 1.1950, a key support level, and it may not go any further today, The jobs data aren't necessarily that dollar positive, since the Fed may be perceived to be behind the curve in fighting inflation
Bank Leumi trader Tommy Malloy. reuters.

Texas Red 12:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Its called FX trading. You guys haven't seen volatile markets yet.

B.A. BOCA 12:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
great looking dolcad intra-day chart...try trading that!

Gold Coast martin 12:58 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ..ML...as ong as you live to fight another day....good trades await us next week friend...

ICT ML 12:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I thought my damnnn clocks were off when it took off long like that 2 minutes early....

nothing like working for free all week again ..thanks to a few ..censored Dooosh bags

dc fxq 12:54 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 12:51 GMT - possibly some proft taking ahead of European close as well as NY but then we always see some players squeezing out the last possible trade for the week after most platforms shut down at 20:00 NYT.

dc fxq 12:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
there is no question that the runup, which began at 8:28:14 NYT and ended at 8:30:14 NYT was "gamesmanship". this has been a pattern ahead of jobs reports for some months now. probably a few IBD prop traders bleeding at the moment.

boulder dat 12:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq...

just shows how little liquidity there is right before a big number like that. and, how little it takes to move this market. the whole reason that we saw this huge move down is that no one is really in to take the other side. one reason why i've never really been crazy about playing the number.

if all will remember last month, after the release, and shock, the market was pretty much rangebound for the next few hours being friday. not sure that we will see much more out of today. maybe not enough to enter new positions.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:51 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ST this is why stops are so important I guess my weekend will start early today.

houston st 12:49 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

by the price action ahead of the numbers I was thinking that they had leaked...far from it...somebody got double-murdered if they bought eur/usd and sold usd/jpy prior to their release..hope everyone came through w/o getting hit too bad..gl/gt.

OK SZ 12:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
think this 11930 level is critical, then 119 if we break them euro heads towards 118 easy

HKG FEI 12:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
now is save to buy yen at this level, buy yen now!!!!
traget 105xx

Texas Red 12:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Time to DOUBLE up NEWBIES. Let's LAYER this sucker.

dc fxq 12:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 12:43 GMT - no "leak", just front running in hopes of an "as expected or sub =200k number.

Pecs Andras 12:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 12:41 GMT May 7, 2004
Just reading on IFR that some guys ramped EUR and Pound up just before the data only to get crushe dimmediately afterwards

indonesia paijo 12:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
and even the stop don't get filled in my platform which 1.2095 ( i short from 1.2071 on eur).at last they filled my stops at 1.2131.

Livingston nh 12:45 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
And this is why the Fed always panics - from tuesday's statement "At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack," -- they are usually wrong - inflation figures start next week

OK SZ 12:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well aint' that my luck, I placed a sell order at 12160 and my platform went out had to reboot and saw it missed by 15 pips..just my luck this week:( oh well will see what happens here before getting in..gl, gt

Gold Coast martin 12:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GENTLEMEN....MAY 5TH 22.45GMT POST STILL APPLIES...G/L G/T

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004
Platform froze and I got my order out before they could be executed I guess I got lucky this time. They are catching on with orders filled and I guess they are wiping out everyone before the game starts lol. GL GT

boulder dat 12:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ML...

it happened pretty much accross the board. i have it on three different platforms. at the time i was wondering if reuters screwed up again, and released the information early. that was a weird move.

dc fxq 12:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - yes it did.

Gen dk 12:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore Sfx 12:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
yup ML

Helsinki iw 12:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Technically EUR/USD is testing the previously broken
downtrend line on daily charts. If it holds, it could be quite
bullish for the euro.

ICT ML 12:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I had good shorts going in euro, gbp and aussie, from Asia session, they hit all my stops (big stops) then took it down....

did that action happen on Rueters and EBS too?

UB GG 12:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
wow, what a big move.....

dc fxq 12:39 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Economic release: April nonfarm payrolls rose a far stronger than expected 288K as March was revised to an even stronger 337K gain. The unemployment rate fell off to the 5.6% level seen in Feb as hourly earnings rose 0.3% (2.2% yoy) and the workweek held at 33.7 hours. Very strong data which will spur expectations for a June or August Fed tightening. Briefing.com sides with a June tightening bias and an August policy move.

Gold Coast martin 12:39 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sydney angus...DUMP IT!! i keep telling everyone it is going south fast....68 level is next stop...

USA Biscuit Boy 12:38 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur/usd at 1.1975 just before platform crashed.

london cam 12:38 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ML - I didn't get whacked but my 1.2120 didn't get filled!!! The almighty must be on my side today!!!

houston st 12:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

$bullish for the moment..gl/gt.

GVI john 12:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in April, and the
unemployment rate was about unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The April in- crease in payroll employment follows a gain of 337,000 in March, and job growth again was widespread. In April, employment rose substantially in several service-providing industries, construction continued to add jobs, and there was a noteworthy job gain in durable goods manufacturing.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the unemployment rate, 5.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, 8.2 million, were essentially unchanged in April. The unemployment rate has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent since last December. The unemploy- ment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.0 percent), adult women (5.0 percent), teenagers (16.9 percent), whites (4.9 percent), blacks (9.7 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.2 percent)--were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.4 percent in April, not seasonally adjusted.

Bucharest Razvan 12:36 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ML: yep..

Sydney Angus 12:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP, What do we do with the 0.7220 LONG AUSSIE position?

GVI john 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004
Jobs +288K
March revised to 337K from 308K

Ina mr.co'z 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Phoenix 12:30 GMT May 7, 2004
US March Payrolls Revised To +337K From +308K

ICT ML 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
anyone else get whacked on a 150 pip spike up in euro and gbp?

dc fxq 12:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
so much for front running ROTFLMA

OK SZ 12:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
288k

Vilnius Phoenix 12:30 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Who will be able to do it first - please post payrolls numbers ASAP

Eilat Dolphin 12:23 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Kay/ Not posting, but enjoying the show...

Normandy (in London today) Nick 12:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
I don't know what you think but for me, the market looks ready to go further up as if bad us datas was expected.Anyways it is positionned to go up and the us datas could be the pretext for a new high. Then, i've got a buy order on euro at 1.21 tp 1.2140 and a sell order at 1.2043 tp 1.2010. I may keep the trade engaged depending of the surprise the datas could give and the strengh of the trend.
Have a good one!

NY KAY 12:19 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
YEN ??!! any news

Gen dk 12:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY KAY 12:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
test test it seems all are waiting no one is posting here!!

Livingston nh 12:15 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Closing short AUD/USD - no fun in making in making another round trip back to .73 lvl

Gen dk 12:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI john 11:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2185…$/yen 110.65
DJIA -21 pts… 10-yr 4.59%, -1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE

Full text on GVI

houston st 11:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

good day all; still riding the eur/usd on it's assault towards 1.2219 and beyond; sold length in usd/jpy overnite @ 110.50; waiting for overreaction to job numbers like the rest of the world & opp to sell @ better levels; gt/gl today.

dc fxq 11:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
PAR 11:10 GMT

Interesting that EURUSD can rally on poor Ger IP or maybe its was excellent Cdn employment data. LoL

slv sam 11:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
PipPirate/ :) in fact she is able to move not only a market but a mountain!GT

slv sam 11:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Houston DK /tks. i did not realize it was to be released this time!GT

PAR 11:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
As usual German industrial production much weaker than expected - 2.3%. Germany is becoming the economic graveyard of Europ.

Global-View GVI 11:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 11:02 GMT May 7, 2004
Canada
Following slight declines in the previous two months, employment rose by an estimated 50,000 in April, all in full-time jobs. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%, the lowest since September 2001.

April's increase in employment brings job gains since August 2003, when the recent upward trend began, to 235,000 (+1.5%).
More full-time jobs

Full-time employment increased by 56,000 in April while the number of part-time jobs changed little. So far in 2004, full-time employment has grown by 117,000 (+0.9%) while part-time employment has fallen by 87,000 (-2.9%). This continues the trend observed over the last four months of 2003 when employment growth was mainly in full-time work.

Rivonia PipPirate 11:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:43 GMT May 7, 2004
mother in law heard of your plan and now taking evasive action?

Livingston nh 11:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Cnadian jobs +50,000

Houston DK 11:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
slv sam= cad employment number just realesed

slv sam 11:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
any info abt cad sudden fluctuation?GT

Nottingham Daniel 10:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
The FTSE 100 has added to yesterdays 53-point slump as losses in heavyweight telecom stocks weigh on the index. "There are two major concerns people have got at the moment," said Andrew Bell, a strategist at investment managers Carr Sheppards Crosthwaite.

"One is oil prices and what does that say about growth and, in the back of peoples minds, is the continuing bad newsflow from the Middle East." Brent futures are hovering close to 13-year highs and traders suggest oil could break through $40 a barrel.

Source: Reuters

Livingston nh 10:56 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Spin after the release of today's employment figures is more important than ever - there is apparently a large short position in treasury futures - even a good number may get spun away from a Fed move so any initial reaction in FX to a headline figure may run into the bond market

Gold Coast martin 10:44 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI BC...With due respect what in brief is your main reason for a "usd collapse in next few months?

slv sam 10:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
london 10:37 /
tks for your advice! the thing is all available liquidity were raised b/4 shorting $/cad at 1.3760...i might morgage my mother in law if 1.39+ seen!:)GT

Sydney alimin 10:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
no qindex, no ab, no nt tonite....with them enjoy their lobsters, i am taking sideline position too
have a good weekend everybody, good luck!

dc fxq 10:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Phoenix 10:39 GMT

12:30 GMT

Sydney alimin 10:40 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
looks like we really need very very good data tonite to make usd rally hard or else it will just add to another case of recent trend where frinite is usd tanking nite

Vilnius Phoenix 10:39 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
When non farm come in ?

Gen dk 10:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london 10:37 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

slv sam 10:21 GMT May 7, 2004 if 02/April repeat, you can add to your USD/CAD shorts up at 1.3950

Bucharest Razvan 10:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
TJ: thanks mate.. 2 pips, huh? :) well, that's it then..

shanghai bc 10:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good evening..Today's numbers may direct Dollar for the next few weeks..At least,Dollar bounce is not over yet..The dakr cloud on the horizon is possible collapse of Dollar assets in coming months..Once Dollar assests start collpasing,Dollar may head for the new low..Not sure who will be pouring money into USD assets at present valuation levels and interest rate cycle except Asians who have no other choice..Again,anything below Eur/Usd 1.20 and Usd/Jpy 110 is a good value for me in coming months..Good trades..

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 10:32 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
I think gbp/usd is more confirm now for action sell.

slv sam 10:30 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
UB GG 10:27 /
bcos buyers more than sellers!!:)

UB GG 10:27 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello, anyone explain me why EUR, GBP going up pls? tks

Gen dk 10:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GA TJ 10:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bucharest Razvan 10:17 GMT May 7, 2004

The station has a low of 1.2027. Sorry.

slv sam 10:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i think most traders are euro long!!and if true that most loose..then 02/April may repeat itself!!GT

Bucharest Razvan 10:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i had an entry order set last night, long E/$ 1.2030 (that would be 1.2025 bid). I'm not at my station and I can't find out the low for reffcccoo.. can anyone help, please?

Sydney alimin 10:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
are we gonna see another frinite where USD tanks after data released?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 10:14 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
in my indicator gbp/usd is on the selling time range until 75 minutes from now.
maybe can help you.

Gothenburg XON 10:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   

longed E/$ @1.2059 - target 1.2180

will see if it makes sense....

Indonesia Solo raden mas 10:06 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
London R J 09:43 GMT May 7, 2004
yes.

london cam 10:06 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
MK - Sorry, I got my numbers mixed up. Ignore my question.


GL GT

ham cla 10:05 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
cam, low on ebs 1.7853 in cable

sg 10:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
cam, i was stopped out at 1.7860, low was 55.

BEIRUT MK 10:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
London cam, i have a low of 1.7856 on my platform.

london cam 09:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 09:53 GMT May 7, 2004
gbpusd ealier break of 1.7870 with no follow through...?

cable hasn't touched 1.7870 today. are you referring to yesterday's break @ around 13:00 gmt?

GL GT

Ina mr.co'z 09:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK

Yup..!...my number placed at 1.8234...but not sure to day...!

BEIRUT MK 09:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd ealier break of 1.7870 with no follow through...?

BEIRUT MK 09:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
i think gbpusd will break 1.80 today
i will go long on a break of 1.8020 tagret 1.8250 short term.

London R J 09:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
raden,
do you mean buy usd??

hk ab nzd .65 in 3 months 09:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sp// aud/nzd watch 1.1410 100 dma and then 1.1386 200 dma

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sell more gbp/usd !!

hk ab nzd .65 in 3 months 09:40 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp maybe looking for the daily sma 20.

Tokyo Jon 09:38 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, this is from the morning post.
Eurusd(1.2074)
High: 1.2150
Low: 1.2045
Close: 121.07

1.1683(0%), 1.1970(30%), 1.2037(80%), 1.2090(100%),1.2117(60%), 1.2149(40%), 1.2197(10%), 1.2256(0%)

ham cla 09:38 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd...ny investment name offers at 1,2070

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
now !!!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ok. I think gbp/usd have finished the time range emotion. seen difficult to get 1.7980.
now...is the good time for action sell.

london 09:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY going up to 208 again. 192/194 is a soild base for the last 30 days.

hk ab nzd .65 in 3 months 09:32 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
bc//It seems that there's a rush selling for eveyr mkt opens, seems today is still a day for USD.

Kaunas 09:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Quindex, i remember you stating last week, that gbp/jpy has a good chance to reach 191 :)
Spooky.

Nottingham 09:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
cable...same as yesterday applies...7975/80 will take some breaking and is expected to be pivotal...gl gt

Gen dk 09:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
still have only 9 minutes from now for up. maybe to get arround 1.7980 again.
but if that level still not yet be get, that's mean good for selling after time range was finished... wait for 9 minutes again..

QC WC 09:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, is there still upside for GBP/Yen?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:14 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well..well well.
about gbp/usd when at 1.7930
my time range emotion indicator say that gbp/usd still wait 10-15 minutes from now for selling emotion.
be carefull ..... I wait sellers come from that critical time..
:o)

sgp sp 09:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ab, r u interested in g/j?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hello all my friends here. how are you ?
I hope you are well today. :-)

slv sam 09:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
some cracks start to appear on $/cad??GT

hk ab nzd .65 in 3 months 08:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
V. quiet today.

hk ab nzd .65 in 3 months 08:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, dlr/chf might want to take a trial to 1.2924 daily sma 10 first b4 the top formed.

Ldn 07:45 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
mkt said to have been caught over-long above 1.7900 on cable

LondonJoe 07:45 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
DEUT/GS economic derivatives NFP auction closed (not finalized) at 191.36 ... shows that late punters going for a much stronger number than economists are forecasting (+170k) ... and shows the same in price action of eur/usd and fixed income markets over the last 2 sessions....

Bucharest Razvan 07:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Tim, HAIFA ac, Goldcoast martin:

Hey guys.. could you point me to some resources (websites, documents you might be willing to mail me, etc) so that I may understand what you're talking about? :) That's an area I always wanted to cover but never did.. Thanks..

MONACO OGA 07:29 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 07/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2060), 100 pips lower than Thursday's opening. The market stopped on the 1,2170 we had been calling for quite some time now (200 periods moving average on the daily chart) before beeing rejected to current levels (1,2000-50 supportive zone) with better than expected initial jobless claims. 1,2000 needs to hold if the market wants another chance to break 1,2170 resistance. The bearish USD scenario is still in place. Supports above 1,2000, with crutial resistance at 1,2180. Above opens way to 1,2350-1,2450 medium term. Watch out today for the US nonfarm payrolls data, they will be the trigger of any EUR/USD move. Overall we are now bullish and we'll be looking for purchases around 1,2000.

Data out today:

GER ind production March expected 0.6% 10.00 GMT
EURozone OECD leading indicator Mar 10.00 GMT
US unemployment rate April expected 5.7% 12.30 GMT
US change in nonfarm payrolls April expected 170K 12.30 GMT
US wholesale inventories Mar expected 0.5% 14.00 GMT

Gold at 386.50, with WTI June at 39.41

***JPY***
USD/JPY (110,40). The pair has been rising on USD general strengh and poor japanese stocks performance (5 negative days in a row). 109.50 is now a support and resistance stays around 110,80-11,20 (lots of stops above). Once again nonfarm payrolls will trigger next move later today.
EUR/JPY currently 133.10 we still believe 133.50 is looking toppish, support now at 131.30-50.


***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7900) following the much anticipated rate hike, GBP is the curency that resisted best against the USD. Support still at 1,7860, then 1,7800 and 1,7700, resistances at 1,8000 then 1,8150 (50 periods moving average on the daily chart). The market seems rather bullish, but charts show a different picture and GBP is not out of the woods as long as 1,8200 has not been printed. Overall we are neutral.
EUR/GBP (0,6740) retraced sharply to 0.6720 and looking to build a base there. Trading range for today : 0,6720-60, we'll be looking to buy the dips today, we still believe in a move up to 0,6870 medium term.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Ldn 07:26 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
The median estimate from a survey of 22 economists canvassed by CNBC calls for 150,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.7%.

mumbai mitali 07:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
should i go euro long from here ? any views

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:17 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
everyone here wait payroll data

Gold Coast martin 07:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
WISCONSIN TIM...while i make allowances for and agree with some contrarian principles i agree with HAIFA...Advising suuch trades is financial suicide...you may as well go to the races and bet on a lame horse...new traders should NOT attempt such a method..it is very very high risk and all the odds are stacked against you...hope this puts an end to this....

Haifa ac 06:58 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 06:33 GMT //You are advising to buy premium when Time Decay is the FASTEST!

You should should be shot for that!!!

Gold Coast martin 06:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gold coast josh.....have posted on aud position yesterday and earlier today..check the archives....g/l g/t

gold coast jsh 06:50 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin...what do you see for the aus/$? possible correction soon? let me know if already posted something in archives....thanks

Bucharest Razvan 06:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all.. Got another question though.. :))

I'd really appreciate the low of the day on Reffffccoo.. Thanks a lot!!

wisconsin tim 06:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
well you all have helped me immensely(sp) and here is my chance to give back.

So, if you want a non-forex option play on the QQQ
buy long option 34 May Call option (price should be ~1-1.25/contract) only if QQQ trades below 34.65. Other plays that I have found more profitable but more risky have been to play Ebay or Yahoo instead of QQQ when a QQQ signal is given. Usually I play $1000 - $1500 in contracts.

These trades have been profitable 9 out of 12 times since the beginning of the year (although since I am going out on a limb and starting to post here when the play comes in "tim contrarian rule" is effect, sorry Biscuit).

Anyhow, profit target is +.90-1.10/ QQQ contract or double entry of Ebay/Yahoo entry price. There is no stop since downside risk (ie filling a .05/contract) is a bogus reality.

Exit if:
(1) QQQ price trades below 33.42 or
(2) 1/2 option entry price or
(3) gets to Thursday of next week.

These are short term (1 week only) plays and there is a chance you can lose all your "invested" option money. (ie option expires worthless)

If we get an entry signal I will post updates next week for exits etc ...


This is a contrarian play, hence there is big risk of market tanking and contracts expiring worthless. I will be posting these plays as they arise usually 2 times / 3 weeks unless Jay/John won't allow non forex postings and if you all like it.

GL/GT

Tim

Nottingham Daniel 06:30 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
XAU Gold and Silver Producers Index. And I must say that the
chart looks quite bad.

"Yes, the 'Three-System' triple tops (trend, stochastic and
Bollinger) of 1/6, 2/17 and 4/1 look ominous indeed. But it is
the penetration through this falling trend's bottom band on
4/28, followed by the failure to regain footing within that
trend, that indicates an impending failure of almost
catastrophic dimensions.

"Should this indication hold out (and it is one of my most
reliable patterns), the next move for the precious metals
producers will be a 9.73% drop to 74.8 within the next five
trading days. And from there it could easily go from bad to
much, much worse, as a well-established run and drop pattern
with this steep angle of attack would peel off half the value of
this group within 30 to 45 trading days."

Source: By Adam Lass

Mumbai Mitali 06:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
NFP at 12.30 GMT

clon glenn 06:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Razvan 12:30 GMT

Bucharest Razvan 06:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Howdy y'all.. :) Someone pls tell me when is NFP due.. thanks!

Singapore Sfx 06:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
posting on behalf of Revdax ...


Due to the inaccessibility of the global-view website
where I live in China, I have to post the following
through you, if you don't mind.
==============================
Today's Special for the Private Kitchen/Fortress Hill
diners: 'A' cycle top of $/CHF (May 7).

hk ab nzd 0.65 04:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
nt, qindex and Byron,
I have sent you all an email and finalised the place we meet and time. I will be away this afternoon so if u have any problem please ring me up.

Bris th 04:31 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast jeb ..Tks mate.. Option trader friend of mine has a couple of tickets might go along and see what he has to say...Quiet like the turtle trader mode of trading ..All grist for the mill I guess..

Gold Coast martin 04:27 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
my post dated 6th of may 8.36gmt..re:crude still applies...g/t

Gold Coast jeb 04:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bris th
re Kerry J
I attended one of his seminars (free).
as with all free seminars he is basically trying to sell a product.
his is a version of the turtle trader. weekend course + 1 day pre & 1 day post follow up. cost approx $3500 Au
believe cost has increased since then, Feb 2004

Sydney alimin 04:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
poor lobsters :P

sgp sp 04:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

I will let Byron, ab and nt explain to you why I cannot fly up to HK in the near term.....but lobster and wine dinner with u is definately a must in the near future.

gt 2 u

Bris th 04:15 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L ..tks

Brisbane L 04:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Bris th No.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:10 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 03:57 GMT - GBP/JPY : If the market move down 2 quantum steps, I am sure you can take a rest and come over to Hong Kong to enjoy good wine and food.

Bahrain KZ 04:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Cad looks good for a figure

Brisbane L 04:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin Cheers Martin gt

Bris th 04:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Greeings have any oz traders ..Brisbane, Queensland based dealt with Kerry Johnston tia..
Expecting euro to hold above 1.1980 fwiw unless number tonight is very very strong 200 plus etc..

melbourne farmacia 04:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:25 GMT May 7, 2004
Thank you Qindex - using your market terms if i may, the rhythm will continue in periods of days, ( smaller cycle ) 2 , 3 , 5 and 8 etc. example euro will either turn today or continue downwards until monday etc... 5th May came within a bigger cycle, so bias is down mid term. Last three major cycle periods put euro tops in place. 1.2927 - 1.2421 and so far 1.2180.

ab - yes wednesday - we need to trade as normal on these days, taking signals based on techs etc.. and be on notice that something may look bullish on the day can turn.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:06 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 03:57 GMT - Next time we can have wine and lobster dinner.

sgp sp 03:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

I understand....it's a pity but there's no pleasing some ppl. They just don't know a good thing when they see one even if it punches them between their eyes. You are offerring great work and is deeply appreciated by discerning readers.

My thanks once again. :)

Hong Kong Qindex 03:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:53 GMT May 7, 2004
AUD/USD : 5-Day Cycle Quantized Levels

... 0.6951* // 0.7004 - 0.7057* - 0.7110 - 0.7163* - 0.7216 // 0.7269* ...


The odds are good that the market will tackle the lower barrier at 0.6951 // 0.7004. The mid-point reference of 0.6951 - 0.7004 is 0.6978.

Gold Coast martin 03:54 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hk......nzd..in the event of bounces we are likely to see more nzd bounces than aud ones...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:40 GMT - This cycle is following the US calendar and the last reference is April 1 and the time is 22 + 1. Anyway I like Famacia's time cycle better if it a longer time cycle.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:41 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
martin, jimvho, if aud/nzd continues the d/t, I see aud and nzd bounces are ahead.

Which I will buy nzd instead of aud.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:40 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q, I well remember THANKS!

Bahrain KZ 03:35 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Try these Levels... :)
Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.2197 1.1948
USDJPY 110.86 108.81
GBPUSD 1.8036 1.7681
USDCHF 1.2932 1.2690
EURCHF 1.5549 1.5414
AUDUSD 0.7334 0.7141
USDCAD 1.3862 1.3640
NZDUSD 0.6376 0.6206
EURGBP 0.6813 0.6704
EURJPY 134.06 131.34
GBPJPY 197.84 194.81
CHFJPY 86.58 84.74
GBPCHF 2.3108 2.2699
EURAUD 1.6859 1.6495
EURCAD 1.6806 1.6396
AUDCAD 1.0052 0.9855
AUDJPY 80.14 78.93

Gold Coast martin 03:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane...correction i was reffering to the RBA not the FED....MY TYPO....

Hong Kong Qindex 03:32 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:27 GMT - Last time when we have dinner together I told you about 22 +/- 1 trading cycle.

Gold Coast martin 03:31 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
BRISBANE L...I did post a correction on the range....7185-7210 instead of 7155...typo....this range will hold into the european session until the payroll data..Another dovish statement from greenspan will produce a usd sell-off in a measured dose as the market has already had dovish statements from greenspan before and it is becoming immuned to it.In the event of a mild usd sell-off i dont expect the aud to breach 7235 as its short to medium destiny at the moment is mainly pre-occupied with the drop in commodity demand from china due to chinas attempt to put the brakes on their booming economy...Not to mention japanese assett repatriation that has been happening over the last 3 weeks{i did focus a little on this in one of my posts 3 weeks ago).g/l g/t

Sydney alimin 03:29 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 07:37 GMT May 5, 2004
OOZMEEH, my tp is @ 1.2090 on 1.2140 shorts

dallas GEP must be very happy now :)
dallas GEP are u there? congrats mate

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:27 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, your time cycle didn't come earlier, it's right on Wednesday!!!


Tonight fig. is crucial now.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:26 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 03:22 GMT - Good morning! Anything will do.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 03:16 GMT - Good morning! I like you time cycle. BTW, how many days wouldl this move last in general?

hong kong nt 03:22 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
QINDEX -- do you like Lynch Bages for tonight's dinner? any suggestion on the year?

Hong Kong Qindex 03:21 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 03:08 GMT - GBP/JPY : In fact the odds are very good at the current level. The trouble is this pair is currently governing by a 3- month projection profile and its market rhythm is represented by 609 pips. That is the reason why I would keep my mouth shut and don't want to upset any more forum viewers in case the market is consolidating in their defined range.

Brisbane L 03:18 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin In your view can the range 7155- 7210 hold into Europe, or do you see a sharp sell off when they see these lower levels and read the Dovish stance of the RBA .
and congratulation on your call

melbourne farmacia 03:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
It looks like my cycle period on euro provided ideal selling @ wednesday's highs once again as in 18th march period. Bar any unexpected employment number tonight, euro top in place for now.

Bris th 02:15 GMT May 7, 2004
Re auctions, small rise of mortgagee auctions in lower end of the market in melbourne. High end still doing well. I'm still looking for mid year dip, so i can start buying into fwiw.

Have a good day.

Bahrain KZ 03:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Just longed Aus and shorted GBP/Yen...what do you guys think?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:16 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
1.38 dlr/cad looks protected.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:09 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, eur/gbp made key day reversal yesterday?

sp, gd morning, pity that you can't join tonight!

If aud and nzd starts a South journey from here till year end, think aud/nzd will bottom out at around 1.1410.
BUT if aud and nzd decides to bounce instead of south in m/t first, then, I think aud/nzd target is 1.11 especially after hiking yesterday.

sgp sp 03:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

re: gbpy/jpy, would love to see your analysis on this pair....if your bias is still down....current levels would give me better opportunities. :)

p/s : byron is delegated to buy drinks on my behalf.....if u r not carried out of the restaurant, he is not doing it properly :)

Cheers

sgp sp 03:01 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, byron and Dr Q.

ab, re: aud/nzd, under observation.

hope all of you enjoy your dinner tonight.

gl & gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:00 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
bc// thanks for your kind warning yesterday.

300 pips up/200 pips down/300 pips up?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
USD bulls must first push the dlr/cad then dlr/chf for some more fuels.

But caution is the double bottom of gold and eur ahead.

Gold Coast martin 02:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
NY...amc....i trade aud for a living...60% of my trades short medium and long trades are aud...the other 40% is euro/usd,nzd/usd,and crude....

NYCNYCNYC 02:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
what is the theory re tomorrow's employment #s, what should be bullish the USD or bearish?

TIA

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:52 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Byron, I would like to give you a call ok?

ny amc 02:48 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
gold coast..........do you just mainly trade aud/usd ?

Hong Kong Qindex 02:47 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 0.7145.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:46 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 02:34 GMT - AUD/USD : That is good to hear.

Gold Coast martin 02:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
DR Q...We will see it by the end of next week...a 68 range is emerging faster than i thought in the medium term...g/l and enjoy the lobster/////

Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : It would be nice to see 0.7038 - 0.7054 trading range in a few days.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 02:24 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
aud has good target on weekly 7100

Brisbane L 02:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Westpac Expects Another Aussie Rate Hike FWIW

Bris th 02:15 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Auction volumes and clearance rates continued to flounder this week, confirming the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave rates on hold. The volume of auctions held in Brisbane remained stable this week, while the clearance rate rose. 54 auctions were held, compared to 55 last week and 49 in the same week last year. The adjusted clearance rate bounced from 43% last week to 62% this week. At the same point in 2003, by comparison, the adjusted clearance rate stood at 53%. On the Gold Coast this week, 44 auctions were held at a dismal adjusted clearance rate of 24%. This is a level of activity much the same as recorded now for the last four weeks. The week’s biggest auction was in Sydney. 9 Arthur Street Dover Heights was sold for $2.76 million by Ray White, Double Bay. Melbourne hosted the richest auction outside of Sydney this week. 20a Outlook Drive, Eaglemont was sold for $1.25 million by Duncan McIntyre Real Estate.

Gold Coast martin 02:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ICT...hope everyone benefits friend....gl g/t

ICT ML 02:08 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Martin, very nice calls on the Aussie the past few months mate. Good to have you around for a short/mid term Aussie view. Keep sticking to your guns and let the pips fall where they may :-)

Hong Kong Qindex 01:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 01:53 GMT - Good morning, see you in diner time.

UB GG 01:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, what do you think about EURGBP side pls?

Hong Kong Qindex 01:57 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD : Use my weekly cycle analyses for reference today.

HK Byron 01:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
AB, if you have time, pls email me the dinner detail. :)

Gold Coast martin 01:43 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Sorry ..that should be 7185 to 7210...

Gold Coast martin 01:42 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
From this point on the aud after reaching the 7180s range as posted yesterday will trade between 7155 to 7210 until tonites payroll data...good trades to every body

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:39 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
thanks et.

Brisbane L 01:34 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Looks like RBA has
done a job on the AUD

Brisbane L 01:33 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Australia RBA: Narrower Australia-US Rate Gap Expected

CAIRO AG 01:28 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Will GBPYEN overcome 198.00 AND 198.20 ???? Well, if it does, the way will be VERY OPEN!!!!!!!

Rye, NY et 01:28 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:11 GMT May 7, 2004

USD Index : 89.96

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
sp, aud/nzd marching towards the 1.1410.....

if you are interested, probably can try to short on any blips above 1.15 water.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:11 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
A very bearish sign on aud then nzd is the breach of aud/gbp .400 floor.....fwiw.
eur/gbp must go further to confirm further strength on USD.

Anyone has current USD index?

USA Biscuit Boy 01:07 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Martin :)

NYC YIPPEE 01:06 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:22 GMT May 6, 2004

No clue. A little lost with this pair. Focus on other markets.

Gen dk 01:02 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 00:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 00:59 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane L 00:56 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Westpac technical analysis report
AUD/USD breach of 0.7270 has reinstated downside risk toward 0.7070 Initial support at 0.7180, with initial resistance at 0.7240. Pair fell overnight after surprisingly steep decline in U.S. jobless claims, ahead of non-farm payroll data due tonight. AUD/USD last at 0.7230.

Gold Coast martin 00:55 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit boy...Hope you made some crumbs from the downward bias of the nzd ..In relation to the RBA official statement dont expect a smoking gun that will reverse the downward trend of the AUD..the statementwill merely state that the RBA will always be vigilant in watching inflation and the now declining property market and be flexible to react to market conditions...As far as interest rate hikes are concerned the RBA WORDING on this matter could beinterpretedby the market as they have not ruled further hikes out and will react when the economy needs to keep the stimulus in the economy on an equilibrium...there may be a knee jerk reaction by the market sfter the relesse but after 1 hour or so the aud will resume its downward bias to 7185 leading up to the payroll data tonite.....g/l g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 00:53 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 00:12 GMT : In the case of 44-day cycles and 3-month projection profiles they may govern the market movements at the beginning or at the end of its cycle period. Their market rhythm is usually represented by 250 - 500 pips. It is the magnitude of their market rhythm that generate the market volatility. In other words if I am expecting a market movement of 250 - 500 pips in a few days, in general I will look for the right 44-day or 3-month projection profiles to describe the market behavior.

USA Biscuit Boy 00:25 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Anyone from downunder have a good read on what the expectation is with this statement?

USA Biscuit Boy 00:20 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
RBA Monetary Policy Statement due 1.30 GMT (11.30am local Sydney time).

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:14 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
dlr/chf 100 hrly sma 1.2859.

gecko, moment for truth and definitely 1.2888 will be eyed.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:13 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
btw, gb/chf key day reversal.
So expect chf more north.

dlr/cad stalled here and I think among all majors, it's better to short dlr/cad against usd.

am interested to add some more dlr/jpy short.

ny amc 00:12 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
qindex.....when you say big time frame how long do you mean

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:11 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
nt, qindex,

sorry was away from connection due to some problems.

All the things will be the same and we will meet tonight! :)

Hm ...did eur/gbp close below .6729?


AUD TRADER// Now it looks better bargain to buy aud but seems there are still some more room, GL!

buy the right time, sell the right time. *.-

nyc sa 00:03 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
thnx Qindex , plz let us know when there is change in sentiment .

Hong Kong Qindex 00:02 GMT May 7, 2004 Reply   
Warning : We are working on a big time frame therefore it is not advisable to follow our reference if you are not a position trader.

 




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