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Forex Forum Archive for 05/08/2004

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hk ab .6 nzd 23:57 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:27 GMT May 8, 2004
The Master of Illusion strikes again -
Seems everybody is focusing on the employment figures and its effect on Fed policy - most analysts are bringing their expectations forward into the June FOMC meeting for a 1/4 point hike - after next week most of these folks will be calling for a 1/2 point hike in June


I suspects there's an abuse of the inflation index 'cos you really can't imagine how the "0.x %" is calculated while oil its self soars to new high by new high.....

Haifa ac 19:48 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Florida vv 17:24 GMT // So this is a pub with internet facility?
Nice.

Livingston nh 19:27 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
The Master of Illusion strikes again -
Seems everybody is focusing on the employment figures and its effect on Fed policy - most analysts are bringing their expectations forward into the June FOMC meeting for a 1/4 point hike - after next week most of these folks will be calling for a 1/2 point hike in June

Employment is not the issue for the Fed - economists like to think of employment as a "lagging" indicator - so to the Fed it was just a matter of time with strong GDP in the last three quarters before employment picked up - THE issue for the Fed is always inflation - it is the reason that they panic (i.e., move earlier and harder than markets expect) - Do YOU really think there is as much chance of inflation as deflation or disinflation? In March the Fed minutes show that the Fed does and based on last Tuesday's statement they still see that "the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance" (the statement also removed the adjective "quite" from the phrase "with inflation {quite} low")

The Fed has said to watch Capacity Utilization (an inflation indicator) and although the FOMC keeps hawking the concept of "core" inflation watch the bond market's reaction to PPI and CPI -- when inflation moves against the Fed's expectations they panic

One last thing - some folks have commented about G'span concern for financial markets if Fed moves too fast (or a credit crash yak yak) - the folks who think he learned anything from 1994 should think again - in FOMC meeting March 1994 G'span expressed a desire to move rates up rapidly but expressed concern for the "fragility of the financial markets", well his concern didn't stop him then and it won't stop him this time

It is a long intermeeting period so don't be surprised if the Fed moves in response to the bond market before the next meeting

Florida vv 17:24 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac

In translation from russian language that means "while drinking in local pubs forgot to count the money and let somebody rip me off"

To my russian friend dont look for help here call your friends in Moscow. You can use a collect call service. Sorry for the truth but money is everything and money is nothing, all depends on timing like in forex game.

Haifa ac 17:00 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Jamaica Rinat Bogdanov.. "during rest me have plundered,"//

What does that mean?

Global-View Research 15:03 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Employment data revives dollar -- INVESTICA Ltd

Stronger than expected employment figures for the second month running will reinforce market optimism over the US economy and currency, while expectations of a June Fed tightening will also underpin the dollar. The US currency will still have to battle with fundamental weaknesses, primarily due to the widening budget deficit and weak current account position. The high level of oil prices will also tend to widen the trade account and confidence in the dollar could quickly erode again. In this context the flow of funds into the equity market and the degree of overseas selling in the bond market will be crucial factors over the next few months. .. Click here for the Full Update on Our New Research Section

hong kong nt 14:44 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
QINDEX -- Thanks for you great sharing last night. Good forecast and trades...

SD tht 14:09 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Rinat.. It could have been worse, you could have been stuck in Moscow. Just check out the Jamaican chicks and you don't want to leave.

Dallas GEP 13:41 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Glenn, your platform did very well for you and THAT is the way it is suppose to work.

Now get this I had ANOTHER friend who had the exact same postions on TWO different accounts and ONE made ALOT of money and ONE lost alot of money on SAME postion. HOW???? Well some platorms require the trading desk people to manually work the stops and limits instead of being on auto execute. So on ONE account the STOP on the EURO spike prior to relaese was EXECUTED by the trade desk manually BUT the other accounts STOP at exactly the same level WAS NOT and so the second account saw ALOT of profits because that position stayed IN for the eventual short. Now if you were the owner of the account that LOST money, and you just happened to be the fund manager, how can that be explained that a friend of yours with the SAME exact position on the same platform MADE big money and you LOST big money????

Dallas GEP 13:31 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
KL, eur/aud by far has the most potential short but look also to Eur/yen because historically 133.80-134.00 has been an EXCELLENT sell off point.

Dallas GEP 13:27 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
JWD, most old timers will tell you not to trade close to data release times because of the whipsaw effect and there are more than a few that WILL NOT trade on Fridays generally for the same reason/ However I am NOT an old timer, but I will achknowledge it IS more risky but along with that of course it can provide for greater profit opportunities.

Haifa ac 07:56 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin tim 16:35 //If you are asking about time decay--just punch in Google and read what you like
If you are talking trading options--this is a WHOLE DIFFERENT WORLD where you MUST UNDERSTAND VOLATILITY and GREEKS rather than Techinical analysis and PRICE MOVE.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:52 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels

... // 188.54* - 191.58 - 194.61 - 197.64 - 200.67* // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:26 GMT May 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Is the market heading towards 1.1623?
Thursday May 6, 2004 - 11:54:54 PM GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html
EUR/USD : The key quantized level in my 44-day cycle reference is located at 1.1991. The market rhythm of my 44-day cycle is represented by 369 pips. The expected maximum magnitude of vibration around 1.1991 is +/- 0.0369, i.e. 1.1623 - 1.2360. It is obvious that the market was blocked at the middle reference between 1.1991 - 1.2360, i.e around 1.2176. It is very likely that the market will vibrate around 1.1991 with an expected magnitude of +/- 185 pips for the time being.


... // 1.1623* - 1.1807 - 1.1991* - 1.2176 - 1.2360* //

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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