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Forex Forum Archive for 05/09/2004

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Gold Coast martin 23:56 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
GOOD MORNING..MYy post regarding crude dated 8.36 GMT MAY 6,STILL APPLIES FOR TODAY...Pevious post regarding gold has reached posted terget and beyond...will post AUD,nzd and euro short-term stretegies shortly....g/l g/l

Brisbane L 23:34 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th , Shanghai BC is the expert on China and its future expectations re: Currency and Economy with any luck he may give us his views as this seems to be a major issue for Australia and many economies going forward , its very hard to get a handle on the real situation without being literally on its doorstep

Ltn th 23:28 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 23:12// As traders we need to focus on the timelines for China changes. Some while back we had indications that China may have preferred to see GWB serve a second term and focused on the end of the year for changes such as RMB revaluation or portfolio moves. Are things moving a bit too quickly?

Brisbane L 23:12 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Sorry lost the link
Link

Brisbane L 23:10 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Steady rates but changes looming
DECISIONS to hold interest rates steady in the US and Australia mask fundamental changes taking place in both economies.

In Australia the focus is on the big fall in property values. In the US, it's on the rise in housing interest rates which is outside the Federal Reserve ambit. But it will be China that determines much of what happens in both countries.


hk ab nzd 0.65 23:02 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
nk, is your 1.40 +++ for eur?

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 22:44 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 20:44 GMT May 9, 2004

IN ur Dreams..;)


GL
nk

Brisbane L 22:43 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello To Hold Briefing At 2300 GMT

Dublin CK 22:24 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Howdo folks,

Another day another dollar.

Good luck

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:53 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
That is part of the strategy Oil Man, ride the train until it stops and you are right no PAIN NO GAIN in this business. Thanks for your advice always appreciated. GT

UAE Oil man 20:44 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
and if you have enough patience and luck wait out (as per my december 31 post) the new all time low for euro$ at 0.6550 ;)...

UAE Oil man 20:39 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 06:59 GMT May 3, 2004
And as interests move up in the U.S ,the sense of holding euro instead of mighty king dollar are slowly becoming less evident for most players..
----

Omil, Might be a good time to sit tight and add on different breaks as it moves lower..(placing part profits each time, but no guts no glory..)

1.1750=>1.1550=>1.1370 etc...

GL.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:21 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. For the people following the fall of eur/usd the pair has taken out the 1hr support (T/L) but now faces a support around 1.1855-65 which is the 4hr T/L I have moved my stops to protect profit at this time. With intraday indicators in O/S territory and midterm indicators pointing south at this time the question is how big will the imminent bounce be before the support at 1.1800-10 and a bottom test of 1.1760 will happen. The % are for the bottom to be tested again at the very least but if support holds then this will be a big blow to the bears with hope to reach the 1.1500s IMHO. GL GT

Nottingham Daniel 19:02 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
I think the report below makes sense in my view:

DJ. Oman Oil Min Favors Oil Price Between $25-$30/Bbl -Report

MANAMA, Bahrain (Dow Jones)--Omani Oil Minister

Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said in remarks published by Omani local newspapers Saturday that he favors oil prices of between $25 a barrel to $30 a barrel because high oil prices "don't serve the market".

Crude oil futures settled up 1.4% Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with Nymex light, sweet crude set for June delivery up 56 cents at $39.93 a barrel. Earlier in the Friday session, the contract hit $40 a barrel - a new 13-year high and the highest price on record since Oct, 12, 1990, when prices soared to an intraday high of $40.60 ahead of the first Persian Gulf War. Al-Rumhy said he expects the oil prices to drop below $33/bbl in the second half of this year and that a price between $25-$30/bbl is "the best for both producer and consumer countries".

Nottingham Daniel 18:56 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Gold is getting close to a technical target on the downside close to $376," Rinehimer said. "A lot is going to hinge on the implications of the data relative to interest rates. I'm still thinking the upside is limited for the dollar and the downside limited for gold."

The euro fell to $1.1894/98 as the dollar rallied, from $1.2066/72 late Thursday.

The unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent in March. March payrolls were revised up to a 337,000 rise. Last month's report was the first strong sign that the labor market had turned the corner and might reinforce strong recoveries in other sectors of the economy.
"Certainly, the expectation for the Fed to move is increasing. Markets are pricing it in and gold is trying to determine what that means for it," said Paul McLeod, a precious metals vice president at Commerzbank Securities.

The Fed chose to leave interest rates at 45-year lows this week but signaled it would begin a measured tightening soon. The market is now betting on June, or August at the latest.
"There is quite a debate as to interest rate changes and the impact on metals prices," McLeod said.

Low U.S. interest rates were a boon to gold, which hit 15-year highs last month above $430 an ounce. With its zero yield, gold looks more attractive when U.S. deposit rates are low and the speculation that the Fed will abandon its accommodative policy has scared speculators out of the market.

But gold has been a popular portfolio hedge against inflation and could benefit from any perception that the central bank is worried about economic overheating.

Spot gold (XAU=) fell to $378.75/9.45 from $387.50/8.25. London's afternoon fix was $380.80.

July silver (0#SI:) fell 23 cents to $5.60, trading from $5.91 to $5.585. That was within reach of the April 29 low of $5.555, last seen before that on Dec. 11, 2003.

Spot silver (XAG=) fetched $5.57/61, down from $5.81/85. The fix was $5.80 an ounce.

NYMEX July platinum (0#PL:) dropped $14.90 to $779.00 an ounce.

Spot platinum (XPT=) closed at $785.00/790.00.
June palladium (0#PA:) went down $11.90 to $242.15. Spot (XPD=) was last indicated at $242.50/248.50.

Source: Reuters

I have a feeling we will see Gold drop a little further, but this is my opinion, a 50% retracement would lead us to around $341.50 but I guess we may see buyers around $350/40 mark - for me well I have a short futures on Gold so if I can get a little more from a further drop this would make me a happy trader.

Juneau CAR 17:50 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Re oil: very interesting:

So some of you guys think oil prices will fall fast.

Re china/asia exporting deflation: that is the only equation that makes sense given the high prices of raw material and just moderate inflation so far.

So do most of you see the dollar higher or lower than 1.20 by the end of the year?

This is the 64$ question and the variable that will most effect everything I believe.

HKG SK 16:11 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
With the price movement we saw last Friday, there should be no doubt in the Forex community that this is what one might call 1-day reversal of the Dollar.
Dollar will gain strength upto 1.1600 Euro within next week.

GT & GL

clon glenn 16:03 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   

Dallas GEP...just returned and read yr post addressed to me re: platforms and the Friday NFP situation. Yes, I was lucky to be using that platform, and yes it's how all platforms should operate. My colleague and I have never had a fill issue with our platform...one that I think you also use, but if I remember rightly you have had issues with them in the past? I guess none are perfect although more of them should get a lot closer than they currently do!

Nightmare story about the 2 accounts with the same orders and different brokers! I'm just delighted to have emerged with a healthy profit from a crazy situation.

GL/GT for the coming week

Spotforex NY 15:12 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
I would amend the Tobin tax to be in force as follows:

When banks, FCMs (online dealers) are in a situation that may/might STOP out a customer from an exisiting positon- the FCM would PAY a tax when such an order is elected.....

No tax on any type of 'take profit' order for customers or initial entry....

Thus make banks/FCMs pay for the priviledge of gunning for market stops (aka JUBBS).

Spotforex NY 14:32 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
My family and most friends have NO clue about Forex ....but I can rest assured that anyone approaching them in regards to a 'tax' would not be met with enthusian....who wants to 'pay' taxes.....even if it is in an area that they have NO clue about....

sf mike 14:27 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Yes, I know implementation is their biggest hurdle. But let us not be complacent. Tell your famly and friends to reject any Tobin tax petition if they are approached.

Spotforex NY 14:04 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
With Forex largely unregulated and no central clearing system - How would the governments of the world collect, and more importantly - fairly allocate the funds......

The oil for food program in Iraq was a disaster with some $10 billion in funds 'mishandled'.- just imagine how many fingers get tainted if the tobin tax funds are in fact collected.......

Malaga boqueron 12:21 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:08 GMT. I side with your previous comment that oil prices are manipulated and good odds they'll be heading lower fast - as quick as silver. Further out however, I'm unsure as to how long they'll stay down. I'm keeping a close watch on the osx and xoi for clues.

Haifa ac 12:08 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Malaga boqueron 10:54 GM// Interesting. A guy on CNN said that actual production by OPEC INCREASED by 1-2 Million bbl per day. He also alluded to some funds joining the herd on the long side. Unusual to hear such a perspicacious opinion on CNN.

sf mike 11:48 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
I don't know how fast. They started back in 1998. Now their list of organizations is growing worldwide.

sf mike 11:46 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
If you belong to another FX forum, please post the Tobin Tax link for them to see how bad this tax would be to our trading.

Kaunas DP 11:46 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 11:28 GMT

how fast these nuts can get things done? - TIA

sf mike 11:28 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
The Tobin Tax initiative is gathering strength. Let's nip this in the bud before it adds $100 for every lot we trade.

http://www.ceedweb.org/iirp/factsheet.htm

Malaga boqueron 10:54 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR, Re Oil prices. Take a look at the behaviour of the OSX ( Oil Services Index ) over the last couple of months. After putting in a double top in late April the index is now in danger of and looking like it's going to break down. Not the behaviour you would expect if oil prices were to remain at these lofty levels.

Mtl JP 10:35 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
CAR / re 5) China exporting deflation: Almost everything China exports is non-essential to survival.

hk ab nzd 0.65 10:03 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
gecko, nk:

Seems this fooling May story might be diffrerent this year.

The daily 250 dma save the euro....

Haifa ac 07:50 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 05:44 //It is one big manipulation. They will collapse as fast as SILVER!

Juneau CAR 05:44 GMT May 9, 2004 Reply   
Oil Prices:

There has always been an inverse correlation with the stock market and oil. I can't see how the world economy moves forward very well with such high oil prices.

There are so many powerful variables thigs are hard to figure:

1) economic recovery seems on rack?

2) twin deficits

3) high commodities and sky high oil

4) record low interesat rates needing to rise

5) China exporting deflation

6) Asia exploding

7) an intractable quagmire in the middle east

8) civil war in middle east: Iran/shia - sunnie/syria - kurds by themselves with many enemies.

9) falling bond market

Like balls on a pool table the more variables one has to bounce off of the less accurate the shot.

I am mostly sitting on the sidelines with cash and watching.

It seems like a storm is brewing.

 




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