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Forex Forum Archive for 05/10/2004

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Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Shorts for eur/usd are still alive; as the bounce has confined resistance to the once support of 1.1860-70 but I feel a bigger bounce is needed for a healthy test of the bottom and eventually the 1.1500s that the bears are looking for. With intraday indicators unwinding there is a possibility that the bottom will be tested very soon. I know everyone here can draw but these are the rough fibo numbers for this last fall 1.1890-95, 1.1940-45, 1.1985-90,1.2025-30 and 1.2075-80. Resistance at the moment is at 1.1920-30 and 1.1960-70 IMHO. GL GT

LA KB 23:42 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
China. Watch the Nikkei for a clue.

china qq 23:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
hi.guys.. moring in china.. new day, and anyone have views for today's asians' session?

Global-View 22:55 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
There was an excellent discussion on the Help Forum about how to intrepret some of the information, specifically flow information seen on our forums. I would like to thank those experienced traders who generously took the time to give explanations to those newer to the game. This sense of community, IMHO (if I may toot our horn), is what I feel makes G-V unique and special.

Normandy Nick 22:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf has opened above 1.30, an encouraging sign for the bulls. the chart of euro and gbp also favor a strong dollar. Let's wait the opening of gold to see what's the situation.
Pound just gave a sign to short it at 1.7750.

LAX-LGB SNP 21:15 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
$chf looks like a decent buy but eur$ and gbp$ are close to old supports @ 1.1790 and 1.7665 ... mkt couldn't close past those levels even after 5 days

GVI john 20:58 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1850…$/yen 113.70
DJIA 9,990, -127 PTS NASDAQ 1,896, -22 pts
10-yr 4.78%, +1 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE GVI FOR TEXT

Rivonia PipPirate 20:48 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
LAhore RK 20:09 Your figures make sense , but gbp will be o/s @ about 17620/600 in next 24 hrs, so can not see your extreem figures materializing. imho

LAhore RK 20:09 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello forum

Any thoughts on how much GBPusd pair could bounce in next 24 hours and what is strong support ---( i think 17840*>>17890 and 17942** on the down side 17635 if it break below 17704 and if breaks 17635>>17540)
Tia

GL/GT

houston dave 19:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
jhb sa...Good to see somebody for my hometown.... I;m a Texan now... heared you folks are having quite a drought.

Rivonia PipPirate 19:20 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
JHB SA 19:13 No, I think they have all retired to their game farms.

JHB SA 19:13 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Yebo from SA.Anybody from SA still trading forex? Shanghai BC, you still around? GL GT.

OK SZ 18:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
well from asia session last evening to ny session we have had a high of 11892 and a low of 11814...78 pips, not a good day for trading in my book..gl, gt all

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:53 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I inform you my Rupiah versus usd gave crazy movement today.

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:45 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
It appears on the 3 year eur/usd chart we've got a little way to go down yet ($ strengthening) even in light of today. Today it appears to me is a "bounce" day after the fall. If the charts say anything at all there's a line connecting all the lows in the last 3 years aiming right at low 1.17 to high 1.16.

BTW all soldiers aren't bad. Every prisoner I captured I offered a drink of water OUT OF MY CANTEEN first and formost. In Saigon MPs died often from "friendly calibers" meaning "our side" shot the sadistic bas+ards. I hate to say it, I'd rather shoot an MP any day than an enemy soldier! They were merciless to us, insulting, sadistic and loved to mess with good ole grunts A LOT. They havne't learned. Let alone the enemy. MP stands for Military Prlck.

Normandy Nick 17:43 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ok, the pairs are on a reversal point, if it goes further up, I close my short trades and wait....

London fox 17:29 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/usd in a clear down trend but if you plot 1-hour chart for 5 days you will notice that at this moment it crosses 5-EMA so it may go up rest of this day..........
Dont laugh on me am a very newbie

Trader Extraordinaire 17:21 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Yes Mike, I saw that Buffet was stepping into my currency arena. I decided to punish him, and bought $50 billion dollars and moved the market. I did this only because only beacuse I bought BRK/A at 95,650 a share.

Normandy Nick 17:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
my system shows me a rebound for usd/chf at 1.2980 bid, if 1.2970 print, I would worry about the strenght of dollar....in any cases, the price should not open below this point, otherwise we might see a bigger retracement...

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I think is nice level for sell.. nice start for gbp/usd at 1.7745 area. sell !!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:15 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
yes.. I think gbp/usd ready to move down from here 1.7746-60.
yes.. from here . it's time

nyc sa 17:14 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
speaking about Buffet , wait till end of the week , maybe he is right after seeing numbers as of wednesday dollar might slip again !

Chicago Irish 17:09 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
sf mike:No.

sf mike 17:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Do you guys think that Buffet is being punished by the large FX players for intruding in their domain?

Sydney alimin 17:04 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
how early is early though for warren buffet, if he cut his losses already he would not still take a position or make comments against holding usd, would he?

UAE Oil man 16:59 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Phoenix 16:47 GMT May 10, 2004

Ever heard of cut loss early and let profit rides...he wouldnt be Warren buffet if he didnt cut losses "early".

Nottingham Daniel 16:48 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin tim 16:45 GMT May 10, 2004
did he actually book the loss?

It"s not clear whether he is liquidating his position

Vilnius Phoenix 16:47 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
It's Buffet, he can wait for few years more ...

OK SZ 16:47 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
yes on the other side (gvi) they said he cut the loss on friday.I do not have a link but looking

Nottingham Daniel 16:46 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
US names are seen buying on dips to 1.1820, dealers note, hence we may see a move north sooner then later!

Wisconsin tim 16:45 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
did he actually book the loss?

I would assume so, link to story?

OK SZ 16:42 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
yes heard that too, so much for the brilliant buffett..like someone on the other side said he should have checked with gvi first..I hear he bought the top at 12930..it just shows you that no matter who you are the forex market does not care..

Nottingham Daniel 16:39 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Heard a rummer that $600 mln loss on short USD punt. by Warren Buffet ! even he can make a loss!

OK SZ 16:36 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
well for intra day signals the euro has found support around 11815 so I am hoping for a return there to go long..but it doesn't look to promising now..so will probably place a small order there and head to the gym..

la sid 16:32 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
blood!

hk ab nzd 0.65 16:25 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
jf// What do u see on eur/jpy?

nycnycnyc 16:23 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks

Dublin Flip 16:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that was to nyc*3

Dublin Flip 16:15 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
The reason the dollar is so strong today is funnily enough not a US thing. The nikkei is down 5 % today and it 's been mainly people being exited out of their nikkei, yen etc. The knock on effects are other long term trades are margined (stopped out as well). It's not economic, it's not political it's financial stop losses.

Dublin Flip 16:08 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Well nick it probably does cost them. It makes it harder to convince other countries to pony up the liberation cash, it's likely the risidual battle for grassroots support is undermined and therefore costlier to continue, and will make Iraq an even riskier place for business to come. Far from the "land of opportunity" that has been the constant mantra Iraq will be seen as bandit country for years to come. The longer and more intensive the occupation needs to be the costlier (in both cash and votes) it is. Also while they are busy on this front the more the US is stretched on other (future) "liberations" and home security. Of course it will cost extra money. It will take additional months (or years) to rebuild arab support that has been forgone.

hk ab nzd 0.65 16:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Place buy limit aud .6825.

Normandy Nick 15:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nycnycnyc 15:39 GMT May 10, 2004
When The United States Of America declared the war to Irak, that meant: feeding soldiers, pay them, throw missiles, fill the hummer's tanks etc... 1 billion dollars a week, a important gap in the budjet. Now, torture is absolutly free of cost and even if the the population was 100% hostile to the Us Army, that wouldn't really increase the bill....

hk ab nzd 0.65 15:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, may I ask you when is the next cycle day? TIA.

GER ad 15:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nycnycnyc 15:39,
IMHO the politic situation already priced in the market (to some extend) what was not priced was FED tightening in June (look as sure for the moment after Friday data), some extended reaction to China (breaks, resource story… affecting JPY, AUD...) and stock market sell off recently (affecting stronger Asia where the markets are more overextended). Resistance in Yen crosses pushing Europe currencies lower.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
for gbp/usd players.
wait for action sell if 1.7703 (bid) be broken to get 1.7620

OK SZ 15:50 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I have a feeling when more photos are released this week it could get ugly..but then again (normandy, nick) has a point..gl, gt all

Normandy Nick 15:46 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nycnycnyc 15:39 GMT May 10, 2004
It is very sad to say....but....torture doesn't cost money....so , make your conclusions..... :(

Dallas GEP 15:46 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks NOTTY.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:46 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
good evening friends !!

Nottingham 15:42 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nycnycnyc 15:39 GMT

leveraged plays are being forced into liquidations due to shifting interest rate expectations...since they sold $ they must buy back...however, as shanghai bc has stated many times, real money rules the market and at some stage it will make its presence felt...gl gt

Belgrade Knez 15:40 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks NY.

Bye for today. I am off.

nycnycnyc 15:39 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone suggest why the USD is so strpong in the face of the widening Iraqi torture etc scandal?

Thanks for any insight.

Belgrade Knez 15:34 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Daniel.

Spotforex NY 15:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
the post was on the GVI subscription site...I got the news off the Dow Jones news wire....

Nottingham Daniel 15:32 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 15:23 GMT May 10, 2004

one of the F/insituations I use - I don't keep copies so I don't have a record of which one - I post if I feel it will be of help!

Belgrade Knez 15:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 15:24 GMT May 10, 2004

looks like your 14:34 post is missing

Chicago Irish 15:25 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Knez....It's on MNI

Spotforex NY 15:24 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
from GVI...

Spotforex NY 14:34 GMT May 10, 2004
Fed hits UBS with $100 mio fine for wire transfers of dollars to Cuba, Libya, Iran, Yugoslavia....

Belgrade Knez 15:23 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 15:05 GMT May 10, 2004

where you got that news please?

Chicago Irish 15:13 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Can't help thinking that anything with a "Stan" in it's name has a Laurel following behind it.......

Nottingham Daniel 15:05 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
News is just hitting the wires that UBS has been
hit with a $100 million fine for sending money to countries under sanction by
the US.

Nottingham 15:02 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:32 GMT

that pair can do easily 1.73 then back to 1.6940/75 for a breather...close below the latter scuppers momentum and risks 1.6700/50...gl gt

Dublin CK 14:38 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Howdo folks,

If anyone has a moment and would like to share some wisdom, i have a question on the help forum.

TIA,

Rgds,

CK

Dallas GEP 14:32 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Well it's no secret that the EUR/AUD went long thru that STRONG resistance @ 1.6980. The EUR/AUD shorts stopped out @ 1.7014. Flat now.

houston st 14:11 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   

not really a scoop, but interesting nontheless.gl/gt.

Interest rate boost before election

May 9, 2004

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST




The Bush administration has been alerted that Chairman Alan Greenspan will guide the Federal Reserve Board to a small interest rate boost before the presidential election, and President Bush is reported to be satisfied.

According to these sources, the central bank this fall will raise the federal funds (interbank lending) rate from the current historic low of 1 percent to 1.25 percent. The Fed is expected to push the rate to 1.5 percent later this year after the election, and up to 2 percent early next year.

Typically, Greenspan's public statements have been so difficult to interpret that Fed-watchers have disagreed in their predictions of future action. But the administration has been assured that interest rate increases will not affect the election outcome.

houston st 14:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   

good day all; still holding some eur/usd length; have scaled into some w/ 1.18xx handle and holding all for next assault into 1.20xx territory (or better).. can't get too excited about $ rally, but will respect it for now..still itching to sell usd/jpy, and hope to scratch it this week or next..without fresh news/data this mkt should trade in narrow range, but w/ 800 gorillas trying to move it their direction from time to time..$ may continue to rule the roost for now, so enjoy the ride..gl/gt.

Normandy Nick 14:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
SB report ( Mr Hardy)

Normandy Nick 14:01 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Do you guys watch the report of censored on Forex Television???

NYC Bill 13:59 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
It is nice to see this integrity London. At least we now know that you wont come back and say "I was too busy to post my 1.2930 fill on my sell order, when it is 1.2000 offered". Kudos.

LONDON SS 13:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
my motto is to live by the sword die by the sword. please by all means place the letter A b4 my initials now for your own good measure...but i can and will state againeur/usd will get up to 1.19 b4 NY open 11/05/04.

OK SZ 13:55 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
well so far not a very good trading day..flat still and waiting to get in either direction..gl, gt

cla, keep up the good info..

Normandy Nick 13:54 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
1.30 (around 1.30)for usd/chf is a psychologic point for the bulls that would be protected. We all know ( sorry , I tend to generalize my convictions!) that the dollar will get stronger this week. Then, buy dollar at this point, no matter the price of euro.

ham cla 13:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
sry SH that was at the same. cheers 2 u 2.

ham cla 13:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
sry SH that was at the same. cheers 2 u 2.

ham cla 13:51 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
thanks, spot, nick, bill, glenn & martin

Gold Coast martin 13:49 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
LONDON SS...nothing in forex is 100% certain....marking your words will add an "A" in front of your initials...good luck anyway...

Sheffield SH 13:49 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ham cla: your posts help us gauge the immediate depth of the mkt.

Pls continue to post and ignore any negativity. TIA

Gold Coast martin 13:47 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GENTLEMEN..ham clas reporting provides a guide to cross flows on an hourly/daily basis...keep it coming ham.....g/l g/t

LONDON SS 13:44 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
forget all that rubbish...eur/usd has to rally to retrace the big down move...no doubt about it!! 1.19 will be seen b4 NY open tommorow....mark my words!!

NYC Bill 13:43 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
lon 13:28 GMT May 10, 2004

Mate, if you only knew. Good luck with you 1 lot.

Nottingham Daniel 13:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I have heard that a pair of US investment banks are on the bid side in the 1.1820 area, which may contain the downside in the near-term, while rallies are being met with European offers, with a Parisian leading the selling. Global equity market weakness has got dealers somewhat spooked, and any further rallies in the dollar today will likely come from forced buying rather than speculative -

1.1805 and 1.1760 are support on dips. 1.1850 and 1.1900 are resistance on rallies.

clon glenn 13:38 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
lon

ham cla knows what he's talking about and doesn't post misleading info...the big german buying at the earlier price was 50 minutes before his later post, and prices change in this game you know?

The guy's an institutional trader and is trying to help us little guys where he can. I agree it's sometimes confusing, but misleading it ain't. Keep 'em coming cla, and thanks

Normandy Nick 13:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
lon 13:28 GMT May 10, 2004
You know lon, maybe a german was on the bid but he finally concluded it was not a good idea...or, simply, the bid has been absorbed....

Spotforex NY 13:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
info is probably accurate.....such postings provide insight to overall market sentiment.....such bids are being absorbed.....perhaps he can post whne this buyer 'dumps' his accumulated postion....

remember - you need two views to make one trade....

LHR B747 13:30 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR:USD: Will entry for 1.2010 at 1.1810 look like right move?

lon 13:28 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ham cla 12:20 GMT May 10, 2004
eur/usd... big german bids at 1.1840/43


a German is now buying at 1.1825

get is right buddy and stop posting misleading info.

ham cla 13:10 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd ... a german in ny buys at 1.1825

cairo mdr 13:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
If 1760 is seen in euro today, I will go long targeting at least 1995 as 50% retracement 2177
gl>

ham cla 13:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 12:28:
hamburg cla 14:00 GMT April 7, 2004
LA ARTOFYEN 13:57 GMT April 7, 2004
well. both LA :)

Hong Kong Qindex 12:58 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 12:44 GMT - GBP/JPY : If we know the right reference point and the market rhythm, we can guess its destination.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 12:44 GMT - GBP/JPY : If the reference point is 202, it can move up one step and it is 208. On the other hand if it moves one step down the rate would be 196 and 2 steps would be 190 and 3 steps down the road would be 184.

nyc sa 12:44 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Qindex ,what do u mean by " 3 steps down the road we' ll take 1800 pips " do u mean on the upside of GBP? YEN or to the downside ? thnx.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:39 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 12:33 GMT - GBP/JPY : The odds are good but one have to take a small position. It is becuse this pair of currency is governing by a big cycle which has a market rhythm of 608 pips. One can see that 3 steps down the road would take 1800 pips.

nyc sa 12:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Qindex ,are the odds for a move lower still on GBP/ JPY still ?

Hong Kong Qindex 12:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:30 GMT May 10, 2004
USD/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantized Levels (03/05)


... // 109.74* - 110.57 - 111.39* - 112.22 - 113.04* - 113.87 // 114.69 ...

ny amc 12:28 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ham.cla........How can you find something like that out?

ham cla 12:20 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd... big german bids at 1.1840/43

Hong Kong Qindex 12:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:15 GMT May 10, 2004
USD/JPY : Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection


...104.87* // 109.55* - 110.72 - 111.89 - 113.06 // 114.23* ...


The mid-point reference of 113.06 - 114.23 is 113.65.

LONDON SS 12:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd looks a good [email protected] start retracement after big down move after fridays non farm figs.

OK SZ 12:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
BC, excellent post. Thanks for your posts

shanghai bc 12:00 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Good evening..Eur/Usd is likely to get back to 1.19+ soon even in the short-term..Not sure how many real money players(except unfortunate Asians) are piling up their medium-term bets on Dollar ..What is in Dollar assets now?..Falling stocks,falling bonds and falling real estates..Short-term play on Dollar cash side is OK but for medium-term asset plays,it is the least attractive option..It is the real money that drives the forex market in the end..Good trades..

Bahrain KZ 11:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
watch GBP/USD 7680 it will do a wild north move

OK SZ 11:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
why has euro held up so far with this yen move? must be some big buyers?

Bahrain KZ 11:42 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY is a good sell at 202.80..any one?
How was asking for the pivot...
if you give an email I will send you a file on how to use..

Bahrain KZ 11:37 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Dow is great buy at 9800...should bounce back to 10,600 again in about three weeks

Bahrain KZ 11:35 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
EurGBP is a sell here? or to be exact 0.6685...??

GVI john 11:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1835…$/yen 113.55
DJIA -89 pts… 10-yr 4.78%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
In our Friday NY open report. We cited four reasons for a loss of confidence in the yen. They were: rising oil prices, higher rates abroad, a topping of Japanese equity markets and concerns about demand from a cooling Chinese economy. Monday was the first opportunity for Japan to react to the stronger than expected U.S. April Jobs report and the yen has been hit hard. Local fund managers are said to be looking overseas now for better returns with yields on bonds up substantially abroad and foreign investors in Japanese equities now worried about the impact of rising oil prices on the economy.

The Nikkei and yen are off sharply today. We wonder if this is an overreaction to oil, because Japan has been very successful in insulating itself from oil shocks. Rising interest rates abroad are another issue. Also, our best guess is that the Ministry of Finance at some point (above 115.00?) could start to disgorge some of its billions in excess dollar reserves. Another issue is when rising oil prices/tight supplies will start to impact the Chinese economy. Nevertheless the yen still looks vulnerable.

Equity markets elsewhere are faring no better. U.S. markets have now penciled in a Fed rate hike for June 30 from August 10. It is not the timing of the initial 25bp hike that matters to investors; it’s the size and timing of the sequence of rate adjustments that come subsequently. Some see short term rates up 100 bp by the yearend period and many perceive that 3-1/2% now represents monetary “neutrality” for the Federal Reserve. In this regard, once the markets sense that employment growth is secure, they will start to focus on inflation. The same goes for the Fed. Rising interest rate should help the dollar, although soft equities are a major concern.

Stock prices in Europe have been hit hard today by concerns about energy prices and supply and the risk of a premature (for Europe) rise in global interest rates. Like it our not, global debt and equity markets have becoming increasingly unified. The current environment could prove stressful for the euro.

The “commodity currencies” (AUD, CAD, NZD) have been hit hard today on concerns about the potential for falling commodity prices as demand cools and the cost of carry rises. We are not comfortable about lumping these three together nor is the logic of the trade unassailable. Nevertheless the Aussie$ is through the .70 line and $/cad is approaching 1.40.

No key data are set for release from the U.S. today, although Chicago Fed Pres Moskow will speak at 14:30 GMT. Tuesday sees no major U.S. data, but German trade is due and EcoFin meets in Brussels, plus U.K. Industrial Output is due. Wednesday sees the BOE inflation report and U.S. trade.

CALENDAR
MONDAY, May 10, 2004
No Key data expected

TUESDAY, May 11, 2004
AUS- 2005 Budget Announcement
23:30 GMT- JPN- 10-Yr JGB Auction
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
05:00 GMT- JPN- March Leading Indicators, vs. 77.8%
06:00 GMT- GER- Mar Trade surplus: vs. EUR12.1 bln in Feb
06:00 GMT- GER- Mar Current Account surplus: vs. EUR5.1 bln in Feb
06:45 GMT- FRA- Mar Manufacturing Output: vs. +0.7% in Feb
08:30 GMT- UK- Mar Industrial Output: vs. -0.6% in Feb
08:30 GMT- UK- Mar Manufacturing Output: vs. -0.6% in Feb
EcoFin meeting in Brussels
12:30 GMT- CDA- New House Price index

WEDNESDAY, May 12, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN-Forex Reserves, vs. $827 bln
01:30 GMT- AUS- March Housing Finance
06:45 GMT- FRA- 1Q04 preliminary GDP: vs. +0.5% in 4Q03
08:30 GMT- UK- Apr Unemployment: vs. -4,200 in Mar
09:30 GMT- UK- Mar Trade deficit: vs. GBP4.2 bln in Feb
09:30 GMT- UK- Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:30 GMT- US- March Trade deficit: vs. $42.1 bln in Feb, see $42.5 bln
12:30 GMT- US- March Import and Export Prices
12:30 GMT- CDA- March Trade, vs. +C$5.7 bln

THURSDAY May 13, 2004
01:30 GMT- AUS- April Employment--
Jobs: See +9,000 vs. +66,900 in March
Rate: See 5.7%, vs. 5.6% in March
05:00 GMT- JPN- March Machinery Orders, vs. +4.9% y/y
06:00 GMT- GER- 1Q04 preliminary GDP: vs. +0.2%, -0.2% y/y in 4Q03
06:45 GMT- FRA- Apr preliminary CPI: vs. +0.4%, +1.7% y/y
BOC Monetary Policy Review
12:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
12:30 GMT- US- Apr Retail Sales: vs. +1.8%, +1.7% ex-autos , see 0.0%, -0.1%

FRIDAY, May 14, 2004
06:00 GMT- GER- Apr final CPI: vs. preliminary +0.3%, +1.6% y/y
10:00 GMT- EUR- 1Q04 preliminary GDP: vs. +0.3%, +0.6% y/y in 4Q03
12:30 GMT- CDA- March Manufacturing Shipments
12:30 GMT- US- April CPI: vs. +0.5%, +0.4% ex-F&E March, see +0.3%, +0.3%
13:15 GMT- US- Apr Industrial Production: vs. -0.2% in Mar, see +0.3%

13:15 GMT- US- Apr Capacity Utilization: vs. 75.5% in Mar, see 76.7%

13:45 GMT-US- Mid-May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: vs. 94.2l

London fox 11:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY is in uptrend I made limit profit at 203.00..........but hope that not go against me

hong kong nt 11:21 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY -- 113.8 may mark the top for today...

hong kong nt 11:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
BC -- thanks for your calls on "buy euro below 1.20" and "buy usd/jpy below 110". a perfect hint for eur/jpy bulls...

London fox 11:14 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas
Thanks very much
Now it is 201.44

GER ad 11:13 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPJ ~113.60,
Anyone have an idea how much money made BOJ (MOF) through this round of intervention after Sep 2003 G7 ?

Kaunas 11:10 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
London fox 11:03 GMT May 10, 2004

201 is good fibo support. stick with it.
u might want to move your stop loss to 200.90.

Gold Coast martin 11:05 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
CRUDE ...has started its short term downward bias to 35 ....be patient with it is the key....

shanghai bc 11:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good evening..What kind of Dollar bounce is this..I have been repeating Usd/Chf 1.35+ as Dollar bounce target in this round since Feb.here..I now sound like a broken record by now..In other words,this is just a very very weak Dollar bouncing market..Bulls do not behave like this..If something does not behave like a bull,then,it is not a bull..Again,anything below Eur/Usd 1.20 is a good bargain for me..Usd/Jpy 110 has already proven my point since Jan.by now..Good trades..

London fox 11:03 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY I have bought it at 201.65 stop loss 200.95 Now it is 201.22.....is this an ordinary correction of this uptrend or complete change of the trend? any comment welcome.........

You may have to know that this were last trade if end with loss.............Forex trading is very difficult and I loss much


Livingston nh 10:53 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Cable looks to break its 200 da mva this week - the end of week the US inflation and production reports might see the final spike in this part of the USD strength

Canadian employment changed my expectation for another rate cut - still look for 1.43 but will start to completely close out around 1.40 level

Nottingham Daniel 10:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
The FTSE 100 has tumbled, with British Airways and Vodafone leading the decline. Market watchers say the rise in oil prices to near 14-year highs and worries that U.S. interest rates are bound to rise after Fridays surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data have spooked investors already worried about global security issues. "Oil prices are going through the roof& Its a disaster for all businesses that have to move goods from one place to another," said Henk Potts, investment manager at Barclays Private Clients.

Normandy Nick 10:40 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
This week will be in the name of dollar. I know, it's not a scoop. I've got a new sell order on euro at 1.1805 to get 1.1760. I hope you managed the move of friday. Even the guy of forex tv said he never saw that before. Crazy really.I got smoked on the upside and my sell order just recovered my loss.Happily, it doesn't happen oftenly; Concerning usd/chf , my buy order is at 1.3084 bid, for gbp/usd, I close my short trader at 1.77,from 1.7764 to re-enter at 1.7685 for 1.7625/30

Have a nice one and make no mistake, we will see new highs on dallar this week...

Dublin Flip 10:40 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
meaning euro expectations have swung from 1.40 to 1.10 and $jpy expectations from 95 to 115 (or 120).
Not great news for US stocks.

Dublin Flip 10:37 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
PAR it's ironic that we did have under the list of "Risks to the global recovery" three months ago a weakening USD encouraging deflationary pressures. Now the most immediate risk is that the strengthening USD has now remove the offseting effect benefit (from higher import prices including oil) and at the same time undercut US exporters rosy FX expectations by 20% (i.e. 1.40 to 1.10 and 95 to 115) and therefore profits. The politicians and bureracrats are going to regret they didn't accept the weakening USD as the godsend it was. With it's inherent inlfation problems the deflationary benefits to Europe (opined by Wim and Trichet) of the stronger Euro were a welcome development now removed.

hong kong nt 10:34 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
AB -- no hurry to sell usd/jpy. fwiw...

prague viktor 10:30 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
oil man:What I wana to say that its logical to talk about the 0,65 level and i think uv got right as u post it once that we are goinig to see it befor the next move to the euro,I like the way ur posting and Im reading ur post with a lot of respect.

van Gecko 10:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Malaga boqueron.. you might be right.. in hindsight, I might regret closing my euro shorts up at 1.19 in April.. however, after a month I had only left 70 pips on the table after giving up my 'Sons Of Beatrice' status..
it's against my risk/reward appetite to dive in here even though '1.15 is a given' as so many 'me too gurus' are advising the herds at the moment..

UAE Oil man 10:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
20 years from now???
The dow jones could be at 40 000 already....

PAR 10:15 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
With gasoline prices hitting € 1.25 a liter real live inflatiion is becoming a problem for European consumers and further EURO devaluation will only increase those problems. Like BOE ECB should start looking at real live inflation and start to raise European interest rates.

Swiss DG 10:14 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
What's happening to the kiwi?

prague viktor 10:11 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
oil man: yes my friend I still have this post in my mind,and i was thinking to TP now but I hope I will see the 114 level as u said,and by the way 0,65for the euro it was in the 1984,and its 20years from now ..G/L G/T

UAE Oil man 10:11 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
As for more details on the $YEN,

when the pair was going down from 120-10x area...every week BOJ was seen "slowing" down the move ..Billions after billions were "spent" but still prices were moving down...thus we can only imagine the Short-stops that are on the upside are titanesque..and possibly will add lots of fuel for a fast-continuation (something the $yen likes to do...move fast...go down fast....something bottom/top pickers should be aware....but short term memory..)..

UAE Oil man 09:58 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello Viktor,

Nothing changed from that post :

UAE Oil man 05:27 GMT April 29, 2004
One has to remember that most yen pairs have been very gentle this last few years and yen can/used to continue in a certain direction ...quite relentlessly and exhaustively..more or less straight arrows was not uncommon..

break of 111=>113.50=>114.70 then well hmm 120..

prague viktor 09:54 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man:how do u see the usd/yen,thanks.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
see u all during NY later.

Nottingham Daniel 09:32 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Outlook for gold still positive
UBS continues to forecast that gold will trade higher from the current level, however, due to the change in our economists’ forecast for USD/EUR, we now forecast that the peak in gold will occur in the first quarter of 2005 rather than the
fourth quarter of 2004.

UBS has cut the end 2004 forecast to USD/EUR to 1.32 from 1.40, while maintaining the 1.40 USD/EUR rate for 2005.

Source: UBS

UAE Oil man 09:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Everything is ready for a Bull $ market,

-Low yields seen/expected as going higher on positive future economic prospects;

-Euro/$ interests differential reducing (and seen/expected as continuing this way).

-4 years bear stock market cycle.

-High commodity prices (Have room to lower.)

-Housing bubble (more $'s repatriated into a rising stock market).

-Certainty in the general population that the $ is going down...That "value" is out of the $ at present.(they have been certified in january of the $ bearishness by most newspaper..)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:24 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
dlr/chf looks like a rubber band.... either a nose dive or blast.


positional short dlr/jpy 113.54 1/4 position.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
dlrjpy gap closed soon....

Gen dk 09:08 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:02 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
gold is a pile of dead water.....

poor me I am still waiting 360......

Sofia NYK 09:00 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Would you tell me friends why the E/chf is falling down so sharply today???

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:00 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Maybe OBL sold those "good bargain" dlr/chf on their actions....

Can't see why dlrchf should be picked with gbp and jpy much better choice in terms of economies.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:50 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
why dlrchf holds so well?

preparing the next USD bull cycle?
or the end of the USD bull m/t cycle?

Seems 50/50.....should be known by the end of the range on dlr/chf.

Malaga boqueron 08:50 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello van Gecko once again. Yes, agree with your thoughts. This could just be a much needed shakeout, before the usd resumes its downfall. However, since mid-February the dollar uptrend is clearly intact, and now it is in the process of breaking key trend lines since the downtrend began in earnest in early 2002, hence good odds the dollar lo's seen this past February will mark the lo of this year. Odds are good the market is in the process of going for the other extreme.

Nottingham 08:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 08:24 GMT

most of the majors are far too orderly and for some weeks now the pickings have been poor but aussie is the one that's the exception and has provided a good deal of ops, today being no different...now trading below the secondary o/s at 6977...rarely makes a close below the secondary o/s but I'm bound to say that that doesn't mean it won't happen today...instead I plan, as always, to maintain a long position in the pair within the o/s band until daily targets are met on any particular day...it would be nice to have a further day or two of downside since it would provide a much needed opportunity to gain some ground on commodities but I'm not holding my breath...gl gt

Ldn Viewer 08:38 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Guys thks for all the views , appreciated ...
Melbourne Famacia ... always suspect action .. just seems USDCHF may be showing that USD bulls beware ..

Haifa - Thks for comment ...

GL all ...

Eilat Dolphin 08:35 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
One's got to be Indiana Jones to keep climbing the $/Y on such slopes.

Probably for those who play with Hollywood monies, or rather other people's monies; and those whose wildest bets do pay always buy themselves a studio (with some starlets).

Archimedes! Archimedes! What have they done to your Lever...
Aged a civilization that us humans...

QC WC 08:35 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, any views on Euro/Yen? Does it still have upside move?

melbourne farmacia 08:33 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ab - don't play Cad myself, but something to keep your eyes on...

Ldn Viewer - suspect action IMO

Brisbane L 08:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot gold touched a six-and-a-half month low late Monday in Asia, after having briefly recovered from earlier losses just before the Tokyo Commodity Exchange's close. With European trading underway, the yellow metalremained well down from
Friday's late New York quote and in a precarious technical position, traders and analysts said. At 0742 GMT, spot gold was quoted at US$375.13 a troy ounce, down US$3.92
since Friday's Comex close. Early morning liquidation on the New York Mercantile Exchange's electronic Access system put bullion under immediate pressure Monday, with the pullback
soon compounded by fresh Asian stop-loss selling at the Tocom open. Weighing on gold throughout the day was further U.S. dollar strength ---ap

Nottingham 08:26 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
fwiw if s&p500 opens at levels projected by the futures it will make a lower trough...1067(60/70) proved problematic as a resistance for many months so may now act as support for a reaction low, but daily closes below there would point to deeper move to 1012/20 levels...US investors have proved themselves to be resolute bulls all the way up and down, so first support ought to hold on first attempt...however, if it doesn't, one should expect 1012/20 rather quickly...gl gt

beijing road 08:24 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham: any o/s and o/b leve for today please? Thanks.

Nottingham 08:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 08:12 GMT

when everybody starts singing from the same sheet alarm bells should ring...at the very least it should tell you that fast money has already been made and at the very best it will be tough going with better/easier returns likely elsewhere...yen has not yet tested the neckline of the bigh shs patter at 115/116 so I'd expect it would run out of steam up there and the odds would certainly be in your favour if the experts began calling for 120 at that time...gl gt

Haifa ac 08:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 08:12 //LOL. It is the ONLY thing Green on my board (that includes indexes, metals, energy, grains....)
When all is red--run to switzerland?

Jubail S 08:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer

Going up?

Ldn Viewer 08:12 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF telling us something here ... IMVHO

Ldn Viewer 08:12 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Question: Where are all the Banks/Analysts saying USDJPY below 100 .... seems quiet on that front as they bale thier positions ... Nikkei below 11 000 all the buyers there burnt on Currency ... interesting indeed ... GL All

ree coco 08:08 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.1888 1.1806 +/- 50 1.1771 1.1941 1.1976 1.1954 1.2050/233 1.1771/675
USD/JPY 112.21 111.95 +/- 0.65 111.45 113.28 113.78 111.87 113.71/114.77 110.81/108.97
GBP/USD 1.7865 1.7773 +/- 70 1.7733 1.7907 1.7947 1.7902 1.7972/8110 1.7764/694
USD/CHF 1.3015 1.2938 +/- 80 1.2883 1.3115 1.3170 1.2941 1.3132/232 1.2841/650
AUD/USD 0.7038 0.6939 +/- 40 0.6909 0.7051 0.7081 0.7070 0.7154/320 0.6904/820

USD/CAD 1.3828 1.3808 +/- 90 1.3753 1.3937 1.3992 1.3831 1.3922/70 1.3783/692
EUR/JPY 133.39 133.14 +/- 0.80 132.69 134.29 134.74 133.52 134.23/70 133.05/132.34
EUR/GBP 0.6653 0.6616 +/- 35 0.6591 0.6697 0.6722 0.6680 0.6715/78 0.6617/582
NZD/USD 0.6176 0.6067 +/- 40 0.6037 0.6179 0.6209 0.6191 0.6269/421 0.6039/5961
EUR/CHF 1.5472 1.5434 +/- 35 1.5409 1.5510 1.5535 1.5486 1.5507/44 1.5449/28

Nottingham 08:01 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
re pianos, knives and any other analogies you care to think of

one can never truly know the level of the floor until it has happened since one can only judge the viability of a suspected low on the bounce that follows...only then can you know for sure so those that believe they can safely call a floor are deluding themselves...sometimes full retests may occur to make life easier but not every time and not regularly on extended moves...fx is a rubber ball of unknown and changing elasticity...so keep things simple and buy low/sell high at times when others are doing the opposite...gl gt

van Gecko 07:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
good day Malaga boqueron.. the market is very efficient in flushing excess blood.. exercising prudent risk management in when to milk the market & when to hold back is one of the many tricks of the trades in this biz..
imo the risk of l/t trend continuation (or a substantial pullback) for the dollar far out weights milking the dollar for more reward to the upside at this point..

morning Qindex 06:57.. will EUR/USD 1.17 - 1.22 range continue to be a great range for range traders over the next few weeks? good forecasts

UAE Oil man 07:28 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
china qq 07:05 GMT May 10, 2004

Can you catch a falling knife without hurting yourself most of the times?or should you wait till it's on the floor and pick it up...question of choice and experience.

MONACO OGA 07:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 10/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1850), 210 pips lower than Friday's opening. So we got it all wrong in our bearish USD scenario last week. 1,2170 is now confirmed as a major resistance(200 periods weighted moving average on the daily chart). As we feared, the US employment data were the key figures. The strong US economic growth is impacting on employment and is setting all lights to green for a rate hike next month. The reaction of the FX market was violent, with both supports 1,2050 and 1,1980 beeing broken. Next critical support lies at 1,1760. On the upsides, resistance appears at 1,1970. We keep a neutral stance as long as we stay inside 1,1760-1,2170 trading range.

Data out today:

UK PPI input April expected 1,00% 08.30 GMT
UK PPI output April expected 3,00% 08.30 GMT

Gold at 376,00, with WTI June at 39.96

***JPY***
USD/JPY (112,80). The pair has been rising on USD general strengh and poor japanese stocks performance (6 negative days in a row with -4,8% overnight). Last intermediate high 112,30 was taken, and stop buy orders took the pair up to 113,10, and charts suggest next target around 115,00, while support appears at 112, then 110,50.
EUR/JPY currently 133.60, we still believe the cross is looking toppish up there.


***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7770), GBP remains the curency that resists best against the USD. Support at 1,7700, resistances at 1,7820 then 1,7880. Overall we are neutral.
EUR/GBP (0,6660) retraced sharply once 0.6720 was broken. Our bullish scenario is negated, however we still favour some long positions ahead of 0,6620 for a retest of recent highs.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Brisbane L 07:20 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Labour peer Sir David Puttnam said Tony Blair should resign as PM before the Commons summer recess, and be replaced by Gordon Brown, according to an article on the ITV website. A YouGov poll for the Mail on Sunday, meanwhile, claims Labour can only win an outright majority in the next election if Brown is PM, as opposed to Blair.
Article in UK telegraph

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:08 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, thanks!

If it closes above that today, will you long till it hit the 50%?

Hong Kong Qindex 07:07 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:18 GMT May 10, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :-


... // 198.66 - 199.69 - 200.71 - 201.74* // ...


The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 201.74.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:15 GMT May 10, 2004
USD/JPY : Quantized Levels of my 3-Month Projection


... // 110.02 - 110.78 - 111.54 - 112.30 // 113.06*


The mid-point reference of 112.30 - 113.06 is 112.68.

china qq 07:05 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
hi..guys.. u r all so nice.. i asking.. is it good position to buy cable @1.7760?

melbourne farmacia 07:05 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ab - fwiw, USD/Cad banging @ 382 fibo ( 1.3872 ) from 1.5803 - 1.2680. GT

Malaga boqueron 07:02 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hello van Gecko. Always enjoy reading your posts. Just seems to me there are too many usd doomsday preachers out there that need be converted to the usd bull cause before this current usd rally can end. Until then keep buying usd.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:01 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : It should be 375.5 / 376.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:53 GMT May 10, 2004
Spot Gold : 365.5 / 366

Hong Kong Qindex 06:58 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 06:08 GMT - USD/JPY : I have the same feeling!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:58 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nt, short term (day top) could possibly set in if this is not taken out in 2 hrs.

I have not entered yet.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 06:41 GMT - EUR/USD : Basically the market is still range bound between 1.17 - 1.22 for the last few weeks. It is great for a range trader..... Cheers!

Rivonia PipPirate 06:54 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:00 Good morning, what does your chart say for GBP/$ Thanks

hong kong nt 06:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 06:08 -- the winners are still those buying usd/jpy all the way up from 103, any excuse for them to give you a favor at 113? 114.50/80 maybe better strategic point for sellers. fwiw...

van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
If history is about to repeat itself, the market seems to be obsessed with enticing more Bears into the 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' before reversing with a club full of bag holders..

Near term, old & new club memebers (& dollar bulls) who are in 7th heaven over Friday's price levels should watch Gold, $/Jap & $/Cad like a hawk for Tadpole extension failures..
meanwhile down here on earth,
US Equities are still falling.. Crude oil is still rising..
Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
..the Beat goes on..

interesting times indeed..


Nottingham 06:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
fwiw front page of sunday time business has article stating oil could hit $50 within months...the UK broad sheet is normally a good contrarian indicator even though I share the view that oil can go much much higher than current levels in the future

aussie...take care if shorting as pair is o/s and has been so for approx 36 hours now...rarely is it o/s for more than 72 hours, so although it is possible for the current situation to continue (has been 5 days once in the past 4 years), shorting in these conditions at these levels should be limited to intraday trading only...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:18 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
They are changing boats now....

gbp 1.7......

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, should be a good one :)

but I would not trust the eur and aud at the moment.

Better short could be on dlr/cad?
wait till it gets tired on daily first.

Bahrain KZ 06:11 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Sold lots of Yen

HK Kevin 06:08 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, think we have seen the high of USD for today. Just sell USD/JPY at 113.02

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:01 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
passenger on eur boat might change to eur boat soon.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:00 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
hello my friends..
I hope good day for you all here today.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
375.00 now...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:50 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
it looks like dlr/cad holds all the USD bulls at the moment.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:48 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
we are now in no man land's now.....

Bahrain KZ 05:35 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Pivot in Excel..can be used in almost anyway you like..for example if you Date Open High Low Close ....Data for each day
5/8/2004 5:00:00 PM;112.20;112.33;112.12;112.27
5/5/2004 5:00:00 PM;108.66;109.85;108.63;109.72
5/4/2004 5:00:00 PM;109.32;109.56;108.35;108.66
5/3/2004 5:00:00 PM;110.31;110.59;109.24;109.32
5/2/2004 5:00:00 PM;110.40;110.69;109.84;110.31
5/1/2004 5:00:00 PM;110.50;110.50;110.36;110.40
for the yen...for example
say you want to average daily Open High Low and Close

Cover the the data then say Pivot..
Take the data into the box then configer it to average
you will get a report that way...
Sort hard the first few times...but helpful to analyse data...
:)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:27 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy no man land 112.95/113.54.....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:26 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nt, does c9 have their head chopped today or they still pick bottom on aud?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:20 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
the slower this drop takes, the more dangerous the aud is.

Brisbane L 05:18 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
IMM commitment of traders show net long USD positions in week to May 4 biggest since September 2002 ,net long USD positions exist in primarily CHF, CAD and MXN. As such, bank doesn't believe this net long positioning is barrier to further USD strength vs AUD, EUR, GBP
rts.

Rye, NY et 05:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
china qq 05:14 GMT May 10, 2004

Here is some explanation:

http://www.advancedtrading.net/pivotexplanation.htm

Hong Kong Qindex 05:14 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 05:07 GMT - Spot Gold : The market rhythm is around $9, so if you want to take a long position one can easily get it at 366.5.

china qq 05:14 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et //
thank you , body.. however, what does it use for?

Hong Kong Qindex 05:12 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 05:07 GMT - Spot Gold : The market rhythm is around $9, so if you want to take a long position one can easily get it at 365.5.

Rye, NY et 05:11 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
china qq 05:02 GMT May 10, 2004
anyone can explain to me what "pivot" means

(High + Low + Close) /3

Hope this helps...
GL/GT

Singapore Sfx 05:09 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
375.2/375.7 - low interbank gold ...

Ltn th 05:07 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Q// Thanks muchly. I think my feed is crook or not taking HK trades.

Bahrain KZ 05:05 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Pivot in Excel is crosstabulation

Hong Kong Qindex 05:04 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 05:01 GMT - That is the price I trade with a gold dealer in Hong Kong. I noticed one of the platform's low was 365.3 / 365.8 .

china qq 05:02 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
anyone can explain to me what "pivot" means

Bahrain KZ 05:02 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Looks Great at 364.5 to me

Ltn th 05:01 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q// ????? Is that traded or your forecast low? If traded where? Hope you have plenty of USD's or RMB's in your acct for spending at moment.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
taken one stop, now let'see see other stops.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:56 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
moment of truth, aud .6980 test....

Hong Kong Qindex 04:53 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : 365.5 / 366

Ltn th 04:46 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have an actual traded low on gold as against the current 375.45 bid?

Bahrain KZ 04:31 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I think Eur/Aus is a buy here..any thoughts anyone?

Hong Kong Qindex 04:24 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading towards 199.49.

Ldn 03:13 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Watch out for USD bull trap, as market has run ahead of itself in Fed rate hike expectations
DBS Bank's FX strategist Philip Wee

hong kong nt 03:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
As GBP/USD daily chart displays a prominent head and shoulder top (downside objective at 1.69) plus the coming meeting of financial ministers in this weekend, buying dollar on dips maybe the preferred strategy...

Gold Coast martin 02:36 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
GOOD MORNING...my medium term targets on the aud ,usd and nzd that i have posted before on this forum now become short term targets...AUD has resumed downward bias to 68,euro to 116.50 and nzd to .58...timeframe:by end of ny session thursday..but be prepared for an earlier timeframe like wednesday based on the recent speed of the downward movement.....good trades to all...

Brisbane L 02:32 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Chance Dlr Will Go Above Y115 Japan MOF Official -Kyodo

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:28 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
thanks Byron.

HK Byron 02:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning ab, from my chart, Gold's day low was 376.12

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
sp, with eur/gbp and aud/nzd move, we should have entered the 2nd leg usd correction.

gold and aud are to watch.

Gold Coast martin 02:10 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY..gvm...defintely fundamental correction on crude price....based last weeks post on crude on an OPEC memo......thats all i can say at this stage...i dont normally actively trade crude consistently but this info is well worth taking a short position on crude....thats my position anyway....g/l g/t

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:10 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
jap opens....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:07 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
the leader is yenny?

watch the gap.... 113.xx is not too far away.

st. pete islander 01:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening, ML. Well, actually I love this 'little' sell off .... it's a rather nice buying op. When they start saying that Gold has outlived its use ..... it is usually time to buy. Shanghai bc said it would bounce around quite a bit, and as usual, he's on target. Hope you're still short Eur. gt

Sydney gvm 01:52 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin - any particular reason you are looking for -$4 - $5 in Crude over the next 3 sessions? Technical ? or fundamental? My system is long 4 energy markets including CL - my stops are at BE on all

ICT ML 01:47 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Islander...I just hope to GOD we don't see "Just how LOW can GOLD go......" on the cover of Time Magazine anytime soon :-> Hahaha.

I might be a buyer around $275-325 myself it it gets there...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:44 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
thanks.

bc// we have started the m/t USD correction? thanks.
I think gold 360 is quite crucial here.

st. pete islander 01:43 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ab, I show $375.60 spot

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
could some one tell the low of gold today so far? TIA!

Eilat Dolphin 01:41 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I don't see any fx significant economic numbers coming out in the next SIXTY hours.

So, we should be running on charts, emotions and virtual impressions.

Last month, before the numbers and after, can still be perfectly compared to the actual move on a 4H Stochs.
Then, the correction was meaningless, and followed after five candles by almost another 120 Ps.
(I don't remember if there were any news for that fall.)

We should get at least half of than in that timeframe.

Disagreers, welcome.

Eilat Dolphin 01:26 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Government of Japan,
Dear Emperor Hirohito,

Sorry, I have forgoten to mention the worshipping of the
""Land of the Risin Sun.""

But you don't wake up that early? Do you ?

Ok, what's your say? Yes, exactely! How many Yens do you want?

Oakland Daimyo 01:22 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
I'm not one for rumors so I do not spread them, this info comes from some "Chinese" friends I have out here. Those who know me, know what I'm saying. GT to all

Eilat Dolphin 01:19 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Oh Thou, the Killers of the Night
From The New Zeelands and the Austral Lands
Thou that see the Eastern Morning Light first
Yes, Thou, the Early Comets discoverers
Show us the True Way

Of the Almighty The Dollar

Hong Kong Qindex 01:18 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:18 GMT May 10, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :-


... // 198.66 - 199.69 - 200.71 - 201.74* // ...


The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 201.74.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:17 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Daiymo, I think the trouble is the aussie crosses.... which still their bottoms/tops are still far away m/t

Hong Kong Qindex 01:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:15 GMT May 10, 2004
USD/JPY : Quantized Levels of my 3-Month Projection


... // 110.02 - 110.78 - 111.54 - 112.30 // 113.06*


The mid-point reference of 112.30 - 113.06 is 112.68.

Oakland Daimyo 01:13 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Spec accts appear to be in trouble under 0.7000 AUD/USD, if 0.6980 gives this will open up next tgt of 0.6800. Not sure when but this seems to be the chosen strat as quite a few traders are caught on the long side from last weeks rally. Supply pressure strongly outweighing demand pressure for the time being. Could see a bounce soon but I'm not buying at this level (not covering shorts) GT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:09 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
nt, dangerous to catch the knife in the butter on aud....

No signs of returns of major yet.

With eur breaks previous low, another leg down per mentioned in our dinner.

Let's see the support strength of gold at 342 first.

Rye, NY et 01:07 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 00:43 GMT May 10, 2004
Tambem, obrigado...

Rye, NY et 01:06 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 00:48 GMT May 10, 2004
Thanks, CK...owe you a Guinness!
GL/GT

Ltn th 01:00 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
NY// Another link abt China. Despite its currency I suspect the ideas may already be being overtaken by events.

Brisbane L 00:59 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin Aussie budget tomorrow do you see most goodies now already priced into the Aud.

Brisbane L 00:57 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
AUD has turned at least short-term bearish again and set this week to test support at 0.6980 (61.8% retracement of rise from September low); any clean break (daily close) would signal another leg down in subsequent weeks toward September low of 0.6342. Downtrend line from mid-April (now at 0.7300) would need to break to indicate short-term downward pressure was off
reuters-ap

Dublin CK 00:48 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 00:39 GMT May 10, 2004

Ive posted on the help forum what Quito Valdez wrote couple fo weeks ago.It worked for me.

I hope it is what you are looking for.

CK

Porto PJT 00:43 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
http://www.global-view.com/beta/forums/forum.html?f=4&s=1

Rye, NY et 00:39 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Could someone post the HTML code for posting a link (on the Help Forum). TIA

Brisbane L 00:16 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
ny amc article may help
Booming China seeks to head off a bust

ny amc 00:07 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
brisbane & ltn.........when you speak of China can you be a little more specific regarding what you mean..sorry for the ignorance

KL KL 00:04 GMT May 10, 2004 Reply   
Pension scandal in Japan...so watch out those shorting eur, usd, gbp against jpy

 




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