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Forex Forum Archive for 05/12/2004

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co 23:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
? I got a news item on my censored that said," Our Asian opening commentary is posted on page....."
Where do find it? Anyone have the link? I would like to read it...
Thanks

GA TJ 22:56 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
If EURGBP can get thru 6720 my long might show some promise from earlier today. Otherwise I will exact at 6706 for a B/E trade

Dallas GEP 22:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
WB, I prefer to play at the end of the anticpated ranges. I usually will see these because I trade all three sessions. I normally will take the first possie that is near any of the aforementioned areas. So for example if we see Euro near 1.1940 tonight but pound only gets as high as say 1.7750, I would probably take the euro possie and NOT the pound possie. You can take a postion in the middle or a range but your stop has to be much larger and I would prefer to enter a LARGER postion with a tighter stop that has MORE potential for PIPS.

OK SZ 22:35 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I apprecaite your posts and time..gl, gt to you

Gen dk 22:34 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
SZ I have no intraday sell signal at this time so this could happen and turn against the bears too. Like I said before 1.2025-30 is the gateway for the bulls to get some steam going so this scenario could also happen IMO. I will be ready, were ever the market goes I will follow.

Dallas GEP 22:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD in all likelyhood we WILL seee 1.39+ tonight BUT watch eur/cad because it more than likely will short with euro and that will limit usd/cad upside to perhaps no more that 1.3920 area

chester wb 22:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP: are you looking for pound to get back up to 1.7785 area to short from, or are you referring to a short from that level earlier today?

Dallas GEP 22:28 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
HIDDEN CCY: GBP/CHF short from 2.3035 could be AWESOME if seen for 200+ pips

OK SZ 22:28 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, thanks for the post and I do agree with your assessment..I would like to see another pop to 1940 level though for the short..gl, gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
SZ on the eur/usd front we have a weak move for the bulls and the 1.1950-60 still stands as good resistance. Intraday indicators are unwinding and coming down maybe for another try at the 1.1760 support soon but as long as 1.1860-70 support holds the bulls are in control ( not much of a control either ). We have other support underneath but I think this is the important one now. I believe that we are still in sell on rallies mode and will treat it as such until the market proves other wise IMHO. I tried to get some scraps earlier by doing a contra intraday long but my timing was off and got out on entry level my broker is happy at least. GL GT

Dallas GEP 22:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Correction usd/chf long should be from 1.2880

Dallas GEP 22:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
These are what I consider to be good levels:

SHORTS
USD/JPY from 113.80
EURO/USD from 1.1940
GBP/USD from 1.7785
GBP/JPY from 201.20
EUR/AUD from 1.7120*

LONGS
USD/JPY from 112.50
EURo/USD from 1.1840
USD/CHF from 1.2980

I beleive POUND will take the biggest hit tonight. POUND could easily short 100-150 PIPS

*In trade now at that level

OK SZ 22:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, what is your reading on this may I ask?

OK SZ 22:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
well back to trading I have a pivot at 1.1892 so will sell euro if we break that..upside resistance is 1.1926, 1.1940, 1.1955

Dallas GEP 22:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
DG, the Aussie is destined to be a short. From where is the question and I believe the .7030 to .7050 area is where shorts should be intiated.

OK SZ 22:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
oh no I'm glad to be onboard:) more days like this and I will start my own chapter:)

GA TJ 22:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
This is a Kettle One inspired trade. Sold Cable at 1.7720. It will punch my ticket for the DA Club or prove the benefits of liquid courage.

Global-View 22:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Okay guys, enough spoofing. If you want some reading to pass the time, see our new research section.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I believe we all have a pass at this club before we graduate to a higher club. Then the mistakes we make there are only considered as a professional error in other words we will always make mistakes and dumb ones too LOL.

Dublin CK 22:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
SZ = El Vice Presidente

Welcome Amigo :-)

Kiddin.....

OK SZ 22:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I joined today:)

Dublin CK 22:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hey some weeks im so good at the D-A$$ competition they made me president, even gave me a green jacket to with it.

LOL

Montréal Taro 22:05 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GA tj
Must be a crowded club, and shame on me, I should have a pass as well!!!

GA TJ 21:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro 21:22

DA Club , which any honest traders will admit to, is making an absolut stupid trading decision that you know is stupid and yet you still do it. Been there, done that, took the loss (or greatly limited profit). Gotta beer. Moved on.

That is the DA Club

Chicago YM 21:31 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dumb Azz that is

Chicago YM 21:30 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dumb censored

Montréal Taro 21:22 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Brazil, JH
What is the "DA Club"

GVI john 21:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1870…$/yen 113.15
DJIA 10,019, +29 pts NASDAQ 1,931, +35 pts
10-yr 4.75%, -3 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE FULL TEXT ON GVI

ny amc 21:05 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
long eur/usd at 1.1901 and long gbp/usd at 1.7730 looking for 20-25 pips on each with the same downside for stops

CAIRO AG 20:59 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
G COAST... MARTIN?? if you re here... what do you suggest for the aussie? TIA


GL & GT

Swiss DG 20:36 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:26 ,
What is your view regarding aud/usd? tia

Dallas GEP 20:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
The short 1.7120 EUR/AUD is working VERY well. this could drop 500-700 pips over the next week or so (NOT in a straight line of course)

OK SZ 20:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
RK, yes that is good way to look at it..

Lahore Rk 20:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Any thought on the euro (11982 * break >> leads to 12092 and on the down side 11845*>> 11735 and 11680) any cooment would be of great help
Tia

GL/GT

Toronto BA 20:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Anyone going short on the usd/cad pair?

Livingston nh 19:59 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Try another short cable at 1.7721 - o/n stops 1.7770 - target 200 damva

Brazil, JH 19:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP, Welcome to the DA Club which I'm a full member.
You don't qualify as a member yet but I'll give
you a free daily pass :-)

london phil 19:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
dow at 10000 regained nearly 160 piooints in an hour

Dallas GEP 19:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Well like a complete DA I closed one set of the long usd/chf @ 1.2906 for + 2pips profit because I wasn't goint to be on platform. No more than 10 minutes later USD/CHF longs so on other set of usd/chf longs from 1.2885, I have just closed them @ 1.2948. I am pretty miffed I didn't get the 1.2904 longs in on the long.

nyc jk 19:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
that's true CAR, I was only trying to point out that they don't HAVE to go hand in hand with a lower dollar. The main difference in the 80's was the higher level of interest rates that were attracting capital which isn't the case at the moment. Having said that, where was the dollar on Jan 1 of this year - EUR 1.26, JPY 107, etc. Today - EUR 1.19, JPY 113 - if what you said is always true, then how could that be?

Nottingham Daniel 19:17 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP that was a good call on the $CHF -

Nottingham Daniel 19:17 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP that was a good call on the $CHF -

NYC CS 19:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Juneau Car - careful with that 92% correlation between gold and USD...you're looking at the USD denominated price of gold.

Juneau CAR 19:12 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
nyc, I noticed you use the term "not necessarily"; and "granted some other circumstances were different then". Not necessarily means, probably will, but not necessarily-lol.

Yea-l! Like asian competition, an intractable problem in Iraq costing a ton, baby boomers, etc and declining tax base, medicare and social security problems. Corporations 20 years ago paid 4% in tax's. That is now 2.5%, not to mention the multi trillion dollar give away to the rich the minute bush was elected. Congresional budget office (CBO) said that is 2/3rds of the deficit not the war at all.


nyc: "CAR - make that 2 of us. the twin deficits are not necessarily a problem for the USD despite what you think and what you read in the popular press. you are forgetting about the capital account of the balance of payments. for a historical example contrary to your opinion, look to the 1980's at Ronald Reagan's "benign circle". you had a case of expanding trade deficits and budget deficits yet the dollar appreciated substantially due to capital inflows to the US. granted some other circumstances were different then, however it is simplistic to think that because the US is running trade and budget deficits that the dollar must weaken.

nyc jk 19:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
lol ML.

been surprisingly good considering have not had as much time to devote to it as normal this week due to a couple of other matters. I hope you have been faring well!!

LAX-LGB SNP 19:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ML - hehe yea
we might as well vote fat-fart Michael Moore for president

LAX-LGB SNP 19:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD thrown out of 1.7675 ballpark
EURUSD didnt even come close to 1.1785
going to short EURJPY as long as twin-tops hold

ICT ML 19:04 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk....SHHHHH.......don't give out our secrets man......the more that subscribe to the twin towers (deficits) B.S. as written stone, the more $$$$ for us to pick up off the floor later ;-)

hope you are trading well this week.

nyc jk 18:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 18:30 GMT May 12, 2004
UAE: not sure I get your meaning, but it sounded sarcastic? If you think the TWIN deficits are not a problem for the US you are the only one in the world-lol.


CAR - make that 2 of us. the twin deficits are not necessarily a problem for the USD despite what you think and what you read in the popular press. you are forgetting about the capital account of the balance of payments. for a historical example contrary to your opinion, look to the 1980's at Ronald Reagan's "benign circle". you had a case of expanding trade deficits and budget deficits yet the dollar appreciated substantially due to capital inflows to the US. granted some other circumstances were different then, however it is simplistic to think that because the US is running trade and budget deficits that the dollar must weaken.

Livingston nh 18:34 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
If the US solves its trade deficit a lot of sellers go out of business too - it is two party trade

Juneau CAR 18:34 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
kaunus: todays metals prices:

www.kitco.com

houston st 18:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

nice little uptrend on the 15 min eur/usd for awhile now..keeps bouncing off of the 20 ma..looking good..gt.

Juneau CAR 18:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I don't think so kuanus. The dollar fell to 1.19 euro today from 1.18 yesterday and so metals were up today. In fact if one was watching, the metals tracked the dollar almost perfectly.

Juneau CAR 18:30 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
UAE: not sure I get your meaning, but it sounded sarcastic? If you think the TWIN deficits are not a problem for the US you are the only one in the world-lol.

I call them twin deficits because everyone calls them twin deficits and together they are much more serious than if it was just one or the other.

By the way the trade deficit was sky high last month. 46 billion. They threaten to cause real problems for the US.

Kaunas DP 18:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR 18:12 GMT
time frame is the problem...as of today we had an opposite moves gold/silver down...usd down as well...nk

UAE Oil man 18:17 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
You call them "twin deficits" to make the word more ominous?..

Juneau CAR 18:12 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Gold has a 92% correlation with the dollar. I am a mining stock trader. I do not know why anyone would even consider floors and ceilings with regard to gold when the correlation with the dollar is so high.

I do not even read the gold threads. I read the currency threads. Gold TA, ceilings and floors are meaningless when the correlation with the dollar is so high.

If you can figure out the dollar you will have figured out gold. And if you figure out gold you will have figured out silver and probably base metals.

All has to do with the dollar. Even in an indirect way i.e. rising interest rates slowing economic growth, and raising the dollar will predict PM's and base metals.

Twin deficits and inflation are the only things I can see which might cause a divergence between gold and the dollar.

Kaunas DP 18:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
yesterdays silver long from 5.5 was ok
any ideas for tonight/tomorrow intraday movement - TIA

UAE Oil man 17:59 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
As for Oil and the $ index, they have low correlation(0.333)..

you might be better off looking at Lean Hogs prices which are reverse correlated(-.90)..


Thus There could be very strong oil prices and very strong $ rates...

Nottingham Daniel 17:53 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:44 GMT May 12, 2004

I have a support on Gold at 345/50 - also suggested buy point, I am not sure now as you have said not good day today ! but 362 good also be a good buy! May close my short position if things don't improve

Hong Kong Qindex 17:50 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The odds are in favour of taking short position for the next 24 hours. Good night!

UAE Oil man 17:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 17:20 GMT May 12, 2004

Perhaps...What can i do i m a RAGING $ BULL lol.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:44 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:44 GMT May 12, 2004
Spot Gold : The market is going to consolidate between 376.2 - 379.4 in Asia session. If the projected supporting point at 373 fails to hold, the next targeting point is 366.6.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : It closed at 377.3 / 377.8, very disappointed performance after it has overcome the projected resistance around 381.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 17:23 GMT - Good on you!

Nottingham Daniel 17:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:19 GMT May 12, 2004
DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3

That was a good call Dr Q - I had a futures contract on the DJIA which I closed this morning - a little early but profitable -looking to short again if we have a good bounce.

Van jv 17:20 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man /////// not just Old timer's luck.. do not seem obcessed with long USD

Hong Kong Qindex 17:19 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3
Thursday May 6, 2004 - 04:28:13 PM GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html
DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3

The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle is positioning at 9981.3. A projected resistant level has been established at 10305.4 - 10444.4 and a projected supporting level is expected at 9518.3 - 9657.1.

GER ad 17:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF,
out at 1.5374, will rebuy lower if seen

Nottingham Daniel 17:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
good selling from a major European name near the 1.1930 level, but order are apparently pretty light above that level

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Ok so I got two sets of lots LONG on usd/chf. One set from 1.2885 and one set from 1.2904. TP is 1.2954. NO euro possies right now and I have some GBP possies SHORT from various levels. Latest from 1.7770. EUR/AUD shorts from 1.7120.

UAE Oil man 16:34 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Old timer's luck.. :)

nyc jk 16:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
well done Oily

houston st 16:25 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

nice job Oil Man..I have been in and out of the $/jpy all morning..it's been a range-traders dream, but I can't compare to your +319..my compliments..gl/gt to you.

New York O 16:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man, +319? You are AWESOME!

UAE Oil man 16:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped on my raised stopped 6721..EURGBP +31

288+32=
319.
---
Left to go short 1.7790 GBP$
long 1.39 $CAD.

GER ad 16:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5348

Chicago JMI 15:58 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
london 15:21 GMT May 12, 2004

I agree, and if I were Gordon Gekko, i'd be looking to scale in short euros around 1.1980 if seen.

melbourne farmacia 15:56 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dow taking hit .. down 127 points..... Oil up $ 40.40 fwiw

sydney fg 15:40 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
We have aus employment out tomorrow. Meanwhile aud/usd to be contained by mild trendline support and yesterday's lows around .6930, today's double top at .7020 + res from .6990 and eur/usd loitering above the weekly trend support and not knowing which way to go. Would suggest it be traded as a eur/usd proxy until tom.

g/l all.

Van jv 15:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
london 15:21 the Euro, "its a dog pal, a dog with fleas", that may be OK- closer to the nature---and USD needs detoxification

UAE Oil man 15:36 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

out $YEN 113.30 ....+70.
--
-GBP$ stops to entry.

Back later.

UAE Oil man 15:28 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 15:00 GMT May 12, 2004

I work with the trend..

london 15:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
the Euro, "its a dog pal, a dog with fleas"

Livingston nh 15:19 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Overall US trade expanded by nearly 9 bio (imports and exports) in March - imports from the EU increased again so the "weak" USD is not hurting the EU economy so it must be something else // surprising that export prices (+0.6%) rose more than import prices (+0.2%)

still see a few more days of USD rally before a 50% retracement can start (expect folks to start talking about a 1/2 point hike in June)

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ln 15:11 GMT, sorry for hear about that, but every trader has this experience of being stop out. Re: EUR, my original t/p was 1.1940 and 1.1970.

ln 15:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:10 GMT. my stop losses have been hit. am out for the day gl gt.

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
censored, stop profit order at 1.1879 of my long EUR from 1.1862 just hit.

Normandy Nick 15:02 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf is still in the bear's cave and pound in the bull's field.
Bought euro that looks the cheapest compared to chf and pound.

OK SZ 15:00 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
oilman, that is called a good day, nice trading.

Plovdiv Gotin 15:00 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Oil man/Do yu work alone?

sydney balmain 14:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
bought aussie @ 0.6960. it needs a bit of loving. will stop loving it if .6930 seen. looking for above 0.7000. will be patient.

UAE Oil man 14:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Daily trades summary.

closed

Out aud$ 6950 ..+50.
GBPJPY closed +200
EURO$ stopped -38
AUD$ closed +50
=218 (but got stuff to close)

LEft overs:
Long $yen 112.60 stops 112.80
Short Eurogbp 6752 Stops 6721
Short 1.7790 short Stops 1.7820.
Long $cad 1.390x.

sydney balmain 14:42 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
thats what u call a clean out... got to fast to book the p+l

Nottingham 14:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
euraud...held support at 6940/75 but will need to take out 7130 to confirm move to 7300, otherwise there will be risk of a double top and thus a retest of 6940/70 and probably 6700 too...gl gt

Normandy Nick 14:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
got kicked out! both chf and pound. I will try at better levels :p

ham cla 14:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd.... frenchmen was selling from the mid 90ties down to 85

Stockholm za 14:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...EUR/USD...at the moment
Stop by 33fib of last week high + ema 21
Value-price line given ~1,1940...
Happy safe trades .....

UAE Oil man 14:30 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Well my euro$ got stopped at 1.1910

-Tightning stops on EUROGBP to 6721 (locking +31 pips)
**New position GBP$ 1.7790 short, stops 1.7820

-Removed 113.15 $yen to be left with only 112.6x entry..

Ciao and GL.
ps my Aud$ is still alive ...stop not touched by 3 pips..that was a lucky one.

Tartu kuues 14:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Chicago JMI 14:21 - seems reasonable and if jobless claims will dissapoint tommorow then i am buyng more
Above 1,1750 we have still chance to see 1,24-25
hope we close above 1,19 today
GL & GT

kp ibm 14:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
yeah am buying euro right now till 1.20

hk revdax 14:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:07//That is what I like to see. Too many $ bulls for the past few days.

Chicago JMI 14:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Tartu kuues 14:18 GMT May 12, 2004
I am. Stop below 1880.

Normandy Nick 14:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
long pound 1.7757 offer tight stop

Normandy Nick 14:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
short chf 1.2923 bid , stop 1.2940 bid

Tartu kuues 14:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Anyone buyng EUR down here ?

kpl nasdaq 14:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
am seeing the euro atlease go above 1950 for today

Normandy Nick 14:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
close euro at 1.1925. I'm sure there are still some room for the upside but, we could see a little strike back from here. I

Nottingham 14:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
euro...may now have seen its best levels for the day...important consumer and inflation data out over the next two days may be enough to put off probes above 1940 today, but a move above 1950/60 would likely draw in fresh buyers...gl gt

melbourne farmacia 14:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax - would be good to see swissy @ 1.2850 by close. GT

Nottingham Daniel 14:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
kpl nasdaq 13:47 GMT May 12, 2004

Closed my $CHF position with profit I feel we may not hit the target, I could be wrong !!!!!!

Nottingham 13:59 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
decent options at 7000 (aud) and 1950 (euro) coming off in a sec...may release both pairs...gl gt

Normandy Nick 13:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
many players are going to be tented to short pound around here; I've got a sell order at 1.7805 and actually, I would re-enter a short on chf at a higher level not on a new low...

hk revdax 13:56 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
kpl nasdaq 13:47 //I see $ sliding on its fat aZZ for the balance of this week. There had been too many bulls prior to today.

Nottingham Daniel 13:55 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
kpl nasdaq 13:47 GMT May 12, 2004
are we seeing $chf breaking 2900? or any one with an idea

1.2885 could be a target - I have a short but sure at the momment if I will last to this target

Normandy Nick 13:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
close short on chf, re-enter at 1.2885

slv sam 13:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
london 13:39 GMT May 12, 2004 /

I expect and within this year: euro/$ 1.29+ again and $/cad at 128 at least!.GT

kpl nasdaq 13:47 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
are we seeing $chf breaking 2900? or any one with an idea

hk revdax 13:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:37//What is your probable target for $/CHF before today's close? TIA

Gen dk 13:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

houston st 13:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

fyi, eur/usd 200 dma currently @ 119.56 on my charts..gt.

OK SZ 13:42 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
jf, cannot agree more..good post, gl, gt

london 13:39 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
well sam, in-order for usd/cad to meet your 1.28 target you better hope or shout like a mother goose for eur/usd to go up, below 1.17 you may need to mortgage or hedge more mother in laws.

sarasota jf 13:39 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
eurusd is an absolute mess - as long as people call for 1.15 and 1.22 - we going to go sideways and keep rewarding the options traders - take what you can get and live to play another day - gt

sydney balmain 13:39 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
sold cable at 75 tight s/l at fig for 50 pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


ra Jaco 13:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:09 GMT May 12, 2004

dollar index just formed a evening star on the daily chart .... watch out

HK Byron 13:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD doing zigzag up... 1.1960, 80, and 1.20...

Normandy Nick 13:20 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
chf should not print 1.2940 if it's really bearish.
euro openend the door for 1.1960
I'm out of pound ,waiting for a better level to buy/
Hope you catch your train!

slv sam 13:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
London 13:06 GMT/

slv sam 13:23 GMT May 4, 2004
slv sam 19:26 GMT April 26, 2004
Buy $/cad here at 1.3480/85 target 1.39+ stop 1.3280.GT

profits realized.GT

slv sam 13:51 GMT May 6, 2004
closed all positions...liquidity raised used to sell $/cad here at 1.3760...will sell only at 1.28..ready to wait for months to realize profits!.GT

will wait till..no s/l...i go bankrupt at 1.60!!GT

Stockholm za 13:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

Time decay= key factor @ price band...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I still believe that this eur/usd long is an intraday contra trade. I will not loose focus of the trend and the T/L still unbroken. 1.2025-30 is a turning point and a gateway for bigger moves for the bulls on this pair but 1.1950-60 should contain the bulls for now if the T/L is broken IMHO. Good move VIIES I was looking for those scraps and you got them lol. I guess the early bird does not get the worm always. GL GT

london 13:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
sam you still short USD/CAD from below 1.37??

Tartu kuues 13:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
We have seen some good jobless figures and inflation as well, so probably rate hike is in the cards but C/A should keep USD in bearish mood for a while

slv sam 12:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 12:48 GMT /

as long as below 1.2025..we may see 1.17 level next week!GT

Tartu kuues 12:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 12:49 GMT - I think its wake up call
GL & GT

Gen dk 12:51 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 12:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
whilst above 1900 then 1950/60 possible, otherwise back into range back to sleep...gl gt

Ldn Viewer 12:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
USD bearish number .. but MACD bearlymoving on this fig induced bounce ... may fade this move to start to build short for 1.1750 break ...
GL all

saloniko 2004 nk 12:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Euro is Kissing Good Bye 1.17..


Have a nice day!

nk

houston st 12:47 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

finally scratched my usd/jpy itch..sold above 113.xx..still riding the eur/usd train..good trades.

OK SZ 12:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I do have an intermediate resistance at 11926

OK SZ 12:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
for ny session I have 11901 as r1 and 11950 r2..pivot 11855..currently flat

hk ooozmeeh 12:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ab... ur views on the result of thr trade figures based on details..TIA

IST Sez 12:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Deficit:45,96

Makati Obelix 12:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trade Deficit widens to 46B

london 12:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
can someone post the number as soon as its available. cheers

Ldn 12:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
German President Says National Mood Threatens Economy

ham cla 12:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
par ... he also said he doesnt believe the stability pact itsef should be changed, perhaps there could be an alteration in the way it is implemented.

OK SZ 12:21 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
well let's see if the euro support still holds today @118..if it does we should see 120+..gl, gt all

PAR 12:20 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Eichel says deficit reduction impossible without growth. This is Russian plan economy theory. What a non communist finance minister should say is: GROWTH IS IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT DEFICIT REDUCTION. Eichel is hopeless.

NY NY 12:17 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
TY

UAE Oil man 12:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Out GBPJPY +200...Will rebuy lower.

GL.

Belgrade Knez 12:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
NY NY 12:10 GMT May 12, 2004

lowest of the day was 112.40

ham cla 12:12 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ny 112.43

NY NY 12:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
anyone have the low bid on $/JPY please?

test 12:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
test

Gen dk 12:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Normandy Nick 11:58 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I closed the long trade on pound from 1.7675 at 1.7725 (I didin't have the willing to close at 1.7730 to re-enter at 1.7740---> too greedy!), and I wish to close my long trade on euro from 1.1887 at break even or so before the datas. We never know what dish the market is gonna serve even if now, it looks to be against the dollar; Gold took some ticks during this hour and buyers took back the control on euro reagarding the Macd but it's very very fragile. Have a nice one....

Normandy Nick 11:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
here are my train tickets: eur/usd sell at 1.1825 for 30 pips
gbp/usd sell at 1.7664 for 60 pips
usd/chf buy at 1.3045 for 40 pips

eur/usd buy at 1.1885 // // //
gbp/usd buy at 1.7752 // // //
usd/chf sell at 1.2938 // // //

GVI john 11:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1860…$/yen 112.95
DJIA -9 pts… 10-yr 4.74%, -1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE TEXT ON GVI

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, eurjpy and eurgbp turning down at the moment.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
gtg now for the dinner, let's see in an hr.

houston st 11:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

good day to all..still romancing eur/usd for the moment..looking for assault of 1.20xx (or better) again..will be watching for the deficit numbers like the rest of the world..gl/gt.

Livingston nh 11:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
HK ab makes a good point about the details of the trade figures - IMO export growth is the key for the USD - if recent gov figures about March increase in factory orders and manufg employment are correct the export area may surprise// my expectation is for a smaller trade deficit (41 bio)

short Cable at 1.7705 - tight s/l 1.7740 - looking for a break of 200 da mva under 1.75

Global-View Reseacrh 11:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

Please note we have launched a new research section, which is accessible via a promotional link in the middle of our home page, in the Analysis & News category on our right sidebar links or by Click here for Our New Research Section

Gen dk 11:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 11:04 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Vilnius Phoenix 11:04 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Just to remind:
Strong consumer demand is expected to help propel the U.S. trade deficit close to record levels in March, economists said. The trade gap is expected to widen 2.1 percent in March to $43.0 billion, according to a survey of economists conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The figures will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Brazil, JH 10:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
atl, you need to go to the help forum

atl magnus 10:51 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hey,

Somebody help me out here

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
once again said, it's not the number but the details of the deficit.

Normandy Nick 10:47 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Even if the actual situation seems to favor the dollar, I mean we are fiirting with psychologic levels, Gold is still well oriented and key levels hold the shock, 1.30 for chf/1.77 for pound at +/- 10 pips. Anyway, the real direction will be given with the datas but the next two hours should give us some clues about what really wishes the market.

atl magnus 10:47 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Please I would like to know the best time chart to use with a candle stick chart as a day trader (5minutes, 10, 15, 30, or 1 hour)?

Also which values do I input into a stochastic slow

Tallinn viies 10:46 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
bought euros at 1,1860 fwiw
near 1,1800 will try to add if seen
target 1,1960 first. within next 48 hours

Nottingham 10:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 10:35 GMT

I understand a number of funds now have leveraged short euro positions in an effort to recoup losses from poorly timed commodity and carry trades, so take your pick...a poor deficit number could make things very tricky and I wouldn't rule out 1950/60 if number comes in -44 or worse...while I don't have any strong feeling towards the figures there are one or two factors that will mean the US will have had to "run forward just to stand still" on the deficit, which increases the chances of a poor figure...gl gt

UAE Oil man 10:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Yes Za, Exactly....If i had to long Euro$ in a downtrend...I would have least wait for a break near 1.1950-1.2030..

Nottingham Daniel 10:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
LONDON (Reuters) - Inflation is set to move above the official
2.0 percent target in two years time even after last week's interest rate rise to 4.25 percent, the Bank of England says in its quarterly inflation report.

Stockholm za 10:35 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

UAE Oil man... Its always like that when you trade of the
1 min charts...... lol
It has not even reach the 1st key gate way .....
Happy trades to you .......

Brisbane L 10:35 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
European Funds Overweight EUR/USD
European international bond fund managers have gone slightly overweight EUR/USD at 1.20 on assumption pair is bottoming out, says DrKW. Cites its new FX positioning indicator measuring currency overlay positions. Warns that renewed momentum on downside "will force them to close out their positions."

Reuters

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Did not like the reaction to the resistance (1.1900-10) on eur/usd it has failed too many times I got my contra intraday longs out at entry level. Flat now waiting to see what shapes from here IMHO. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 10:28 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

sydney balmain 10:28 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
after todays developments cable has seen its low. that said it doesnt seem fitting euro retesting below 1.1800. north seems to be the direction. it will be interesing to see what happens if the US trade deficit is worse than expected.

UAE Oil man 10:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
20 pips up in euro$ and everyone scrambles to long it(at the top)....While it has been ranging for 3 days...and people talk again of 1.20 ...1.22 tommorrow etc etc.....

That Looks like an UNHEALTHY love story.

-Raising stops on my long GBPJPY from 198.20 to 199.70
-Placing stops EurGBP 6752 (entry)


GL and GT>

ham cla 10:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
swiss bank is a frequent seller of eur/chf .....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:20 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
interesting, dlr/cad is totally locked to prevent to take a 4hr outside reversal?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp leave the eur while eur/jpy is still deciding.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, maybe let's watch the break of today's mini-cycle.

whitesea fx 10:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY bouhgt at 200.00 close now on 200.16

Gen dk 10:12 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 10:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ECB was the last central bank to lower rates ( only under FED pressure) and will be the last central bank to raise rates. While every european consumer is shivering under inflation pressures ECB sees no inflation at all and lives on its virtual economic models governed world. No wonder europeans dislike politicians and well paid central bankers.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
nt, did u add gbp short 17740?

Tallinn viies 10:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
as previous day high on eurusd is taken out prefered stratgey is to buy on dips as long as previous day low not penetrated.
close here today should turn stochastic also up from oversold levels which definatelly supports euro during next couple of days.
first big target then falling trendline
iimho

Gen dk 10:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LHR B747 10:04 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Good day everybody,

Please share your opinions regarding a scenario which FED rates are higher than ECB rates, what exchange rates can show on board if/when this happens?
All indicators on my side are screaming that this scenario will be happening still during 2004

Hong Kong Qindex 10:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:45 GMT May 12, 2004

Anything..is possible..

Even USD/CHF 1.40 frome here

nk

whitesea fx 09:52 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Now I bought GBP/JPY 200.00 am I right??

Nottingham Daniel 09:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
whitesea fx 09:24 GMT May 12, 2004

Is their a problem FX!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I believe eur/gbp is also holding the eur/usd pair from breaking resistance (1.1900-10) at this point IMHO. GT

whitesea fx 09:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY SURGE TO 200.32 is this mean it now trending up ?any way +93 pip in only one hour is something not bad!!!

slv sam 09:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
is it not possible to see euro/$ at 1.12 level $/chf at 1.31 and euro/chf at 1.48?? as i hear euro/chf is waht important not $/chf...any views?GT

Minnesota Mark 09:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY not holding 200 mark.

Ldn 09:44 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Gloomy Outlook From Germany's HD Retail Industry Association. The HDE sees only a slight pick up in retail sales through 2004 and suggests that the sales figures for April would not show much improvement over the previous months. The Association has maintained its 0.5% rise forecast for 2004 sales and continues to look to the second half of the year to deliver the best performance. --
ifr

Normandy Nick 09:43 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
well, well,well.....pound foats the fire today.next target is 1.78

Minnesota Mark 09:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 09:35 GMT May 12, 2004

The battle is on, showing nasty doji on 5 min chart. Need to push through this time.

Normandy Nick 09:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Actually, it's more than an interim resistance....:p , this resistance appears on my hourly and daily chart. I'll close my long trade at 1.7725 to re-enter at 1.7740, a good sign to sell dollar would be a chf at 1.2938. bid(always bid)....

Ina mr.co'z 09:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
imo...my daily resistance for cable at 1.7822/78...gl/gt..

PAR 09:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Despite strong GBP and high UK interest rates BOE is worried about inflation while ECB with negative real Euro interest rates and a falling EURO is not worried . Maybe that is why unemployment in the UK is 3% and unemployment in Europ is 9%.

Gen dk 09:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Normandy Nick 09:35 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
I've read a report saying 1.77 is actuallly a key resistance for long term to get 1.79. Nonetheless, I've got an interim resistance at 1.7730, let's see if it's gonna burst it or not....

Belgium sidekick 09:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
whitesea fx 09:24 GMT May 12, 2004

IFR forexwatch

whitesea fx 09:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
anybody tell me who is that person or firm that post the below forecast? GK

Nottingham Daniel 09:22 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Talk of UK Bids 1.7580 - 90 and offers 1.7700 - 10 & stops said to building up 1.7740 GBP$

Chinese offers at 119.10 EurYEN

Japanese Baought at 112.45/50 - offers said at 112.90 - 113 - $YEN

Gen dk 09:17 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:14 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
nt, if aud and nzd makes double bottom of their respective fig. I will go long today, trade based on timing not much on the levels.

Genoa nic 09:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Got it BC, thanks.
For today I get the feeling that the Euro/$ is working hard on the upside breakout mainly for lack of Euro/Pound support, FWIW

Nottingham Daniel 09:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
5/12/2004 8:30:00 AM (EST Time) US (1) Mar Trade Balance

Nottingham Daniel 08:59 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
A lower-than-expected UK trade deficit in March, which came in at GBP 4.05bn, against forecasts of GBP 4.3bn, has helped propel cable to a test of resistance at 1.7685.

Normandy Nick 08:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
sell order on chf at 1.2940
euro en route for 1.1922
pound just confirms its strengh

sydney balmain 08:44 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
euro ready to pop

shanghai bc 08:43 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

OMIL,NIC -- Good afternoon..If Usd/Chf cannot even stand above 1.30 with such strong data,there must be something wrong with Dollar..Expecting to see Eur/Usd 1.20 again..

Nottingham Daniel 08:38 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank Take For Today

USD/JPY gets a first taste of medium-term supply 12th May, 2004

EUR USD (1.1865) Although yesterday’s range was slightly wider
than Monday’s, both sessions contributed to the same outcome: a narrow
consolidation practically at the low. The euro even came to within 30-pips
of the year’s 1.1760 low yesterday. But it recovered again by the end of the
NY session and settled slightly higher on the day at 1.1870.
It is tempting to believe that medium-term traders have once again started
to rebuild euro long-positions. But we doubt that this was really the case.
To begin with, the recovery is far too meagre; the oscillations of the last
two days have taken place almost exclusively below Friday’s monster
range. Secondly, we reckon that the experience of last week was a
sobering one for medium-term bulls. This is a group that had been poorly
rewarded for three straight months of bullishness*. Then, to add insult to
injury, the single-currency buoyed their spirits with a 3.5 percent rally, only
to snatch it all back again. So chastened, they might not be in the mood to
plunge back into the single-currency so soon. Thus, the dip-buying
probably has its source in the short-term community. This demand is
unlikely to have any lasting positive influence on the price, but it could be
enough to lift it to 1.1930, our first resistance. Remember that is only
starting from there that risk-reward considerations would support a bearish
strategy from our side, as we consider the near-term downside risk to be
only to 1.1630. The upside limit to any bearish view must be set at 1.2020.

USD JPY (112.70) The current objective remains 114.85/95. This level represents the breakeven of the medium-term traders who were encouraged to buy dollar by the apparent aggressiveness of the BoJ’s intervention campaign. These positions data back a year or more (and also include the intervention positions of the BoJ). It is therefore near this price that we expect the best supply on the nearby horizon (or any horizon, for that matter). Although we detected daytrader selling over the last few days, it could also be that we saw some
medium-term accounts offloading dollars near the peak. The current downside limit for the bullish view, 112.10, was set for risk-reward purposes only; the best supports are much lower, at ¥111 and below. An intermediate support comes in at 112.50.

EUR JPY (133.75) The euro was pressured even lower overnight and, in Asia this morning, undercut the downside limit of our bullish scenario. This threshold had been set for risk-reward purposes only. As mentioned in our last report, the better demand points are only to be found at much lower levels, notably at 132.50 and at 131.30 (critical). The cross thus retains its positive orientation; although it now requires a fresh bullish impulse
above 135.25 to signal renewed gains to 139.75/80. As for the supply that we
formerly expected in the mid-¥135’s, we now consider it to have been spent.

EUR GBP (0.6745) Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected UK industrial production report was doubly disappointing, as most commentators believed that the worst was over for the troubled manufacturing sector. The Pound plunged on the data – a reaction that showed that traders had been much longer of Sterling than we had reckoned. In any case, the upside limit of our euro-bearish scenario was overtaken (apologies) and the cross moved back into neutral territory. The first supports are now at 0.6710 and 0.6680. Resistances are
sighted at 0.6815/25 and at 0.6850.

GBP USD (1.7610) Objective achieved. Disappointing UK industrial production figures were the catalyst for a slide to a new year’s low yesterday. The trough was finally marked at 1.7535. Although we had expected short-term traders to buy at current levels, yesterday’s reaction shows that many must have been long already. This means that leftover positions in the market should hinder a rebound above 1.7710. With this as an upside
limit, we therefore open a new target at 1.7350.

AUD USD (0.7005) The next target remains 0.6875, which is also a medium-term grail . Even from a broader perspective, this level represents the AUD’s last chance to form a base; below
there, it would be drawn into an irrecoverable slide that would wipe away a large chunk of the gains of the last two years. The upside limit to the bearish view remains at 0.7075.


perth rick 08:36 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
buying euro at market 1.1885 for 1.1975 tonite gl to me :)

Normandy Nick 08:33 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
hello everyone,
I just bought pound at 1.7675 for 1.7730

Genoa nic 08:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks BC, do you think a tame CPI on Friday will change again timing on rate hikes expectation?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your comments BC the bears had their chance at the bottom (1.1760) now we will see how far the bulls take eur/usd to. GT

shanghai bc 08:22 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   

At least till Friday,NY session, buying Eur/Usd is where the money is..Fwiw..

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:19 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
gecko, I would like to know how's your view on dlr/index now, please?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
oilman, do u think dlr/cad has made enough and now turned south?

Ihave 1.3781 as the indicator support.

sydney balmain 08:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
cable has popped recently as traders are weary of a hawkish inflation report from the boe soon - plus it needs some sort of retracement after yesterdays selloff. but does any1 think euro is primed for a break of 1.1900 soon? looks like could be very sharp rally judging by hourly charts.

saloniko 2004 nk 08:02 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Goood Morning..

Another sunny day maybe for Euro, while 1.17 is no touch!

But even like this USD/CHF moved LESS than Euro on this maybe Correction..

Stll rememper 1.19-1.08..1.08-1.28..1.28-1.18..1.18-1.40??

nk

Helsinki iw 08:01 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, revdax.

hk revdax 07:54 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 07:42//The Macau indicator agrees to your view on $.

Genève JZ 07:53 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Thank you GT TB , I'm writing him now.

CT DB 07:52 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Geneve JZ,
e-mail [email protected] and ask him for my mail

Helsinki iw 07:48 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
But I cannot subscribe to the rampant optimism on the world
economy that is around, with OECD the last instituton to join
the chorus yesterday. It is hard to see a sudden jump in de-
mand with base commodities trading at multi-year highs.

That said, if world demand should suddenly increase, the
ramp-up will be very quick, like the slowdown in ´01, as logis-
tic efficency is the gift of the technology boom.

Genève JZ 07:44 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Is there someone using the Currenex platform ?
Thanks

Helsinki iw 07:42 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Also of the opinion that the USD bull run may see at
least a temporary halt. After Friday´s figures I do see CAD
as one of those with most potential.

Genève JZ 07:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
CT DB , I'm sorry Who is jay to ask for your e.mail ?

hk revdax 07:34 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 06:58 //Working long hours and making money in fx trading are hardly related in any direct proportion. I used to trade everyday and now I trade only a few times a month. I seem to have come to the conclusion that the fewer trades I do, the better would be the results.

CT DB 07:31 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Genève JZ,
must be u, other wise f-kc know!?

Genève JZ 07:30 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
CT DB , Who is JZ ?

CT DB 07:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Genève JZ,
yes. ask jay for my e-mail

Genève JZ 07:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Is there someone using the Currenex platform with censored?
Thanks

warsaw tmsmp 07:22 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, Viies, can u give me a link to yr website pls?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man it is truly good to see your comments here again you bring another view to the forum. While we are talking pip raiding you are talking about the true trend and that we must not loose focus on thanks. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
VIIES later on when I have paid my dues to this business like most of you have I will take it easy. I feel a lot better with my contra intraday long if we can get past the T/L (1.1920-30). I would not add long position if I were you until the resistance (1.1900-10) is taken out with tight stops. This long position could turn against me any minute so I have to be ready for it.

Ldn 07:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
USD lost ground in uneventful Asian trade although sterling still suffering from Tue's woeful mfg data. ANZ's Craig Ferguson says cable's break below 1.7580 o/n should have triggered a broader USD upmove. However, EUR/USD's ability to hold above 1.1760 negates this scenario and a minimum 1-2 day rally toward 1.19-1.20 is now on the cards(.Reuters)_ news

Tallinn viies 06:58 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:49 - yeah, first 5 years I worked 20 hours per day and still lost money...

now taking it easy and havent lost money on fx market for last 3 years :)

UAE Oil man 06:53 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Ah euro$ add is 1.1872 not 1.1972..

hk jn 06:50 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
any view on aud please, seems weakening

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
You are right about that VIIES but I am a workaholic can’t help it. Right now there is no action so I am back testing systems and reading the FF comments. You are the one that is holding up the show for the bulls on the eur/usd you need to get on the train buddy. I won’t ask if you are all right because you always are LOL. GT ;-)

UAE Oil man 06:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
New positions.

113.15+112.65 Long en route 116.xx s/l 111.85
**Eur$ 1.1972 Short en route 1.1320 s/l all 1.2222 (but S/l for add 1.1910 moved it 5 pips up)
EurGBP 6752 short enroute .6000 s/l 6825
GBPJPY 198.20 Long en route 216 s/l 195.20
**$cad 1.39 Long en route 1.42 s/l all 1.3680
**AUD$ 7000 s/l all .7210 en route .6500 (s/l for add 7035)

(** are adds.)

KL KL 06:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT May 12, 2004 ..could I ask your quantised view on the DOW...I am just curious of its correlation with $ strength. TIA. Secondly do you trade the index as well?? apart from thecurrency

Tallinn viies 06:39 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:03 - hi there. you are working 24 hours shift?

have found that things are not going well for me when I need to follow markets 24 hours. easiest money comes with 2 hours work per day :)

anyway, hope you are doing well. personally planning turn to euro buyer soon. left order for o/n to sell euros near 1,1909, no fill yet and soon I probably start accumulate euros on dips....
gl

st. pete islander 06:32 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi Oil Man! Yes, but I'd be very happy with just one copy .... sent to me! Instead, we stay up all night. lol Good to have you back here. Thanks for your views. gt

UAE Oil man 06:29 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi St pete!..However it wouldnt do any good if tommorrow's financial page was delivered to EVERYONE...

st. pete islander 06:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, Yes up early (late) as usual. Easy to over analyze. Even after 25 + years, I must constantly remind myself that a fine painting is not viewed properly if you are too close to the canvas. I believe nyc jk mentioned a well known trader that made his decisions when the charts were clear from the other end of the room. Great teachers like Shanghai BC and others are kind enough to give this kind of view. But each of us must trade the time frames we can be comfortable with, I suppose. Tomorrow's financial page delivered today would be a big help. lol. GL

Hong Kong Qindex 06:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:25 GMT May 12, 2004
EUR/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 130.48* - 131.27 - 132.05 - 132.83 - 133.61* - 134.40 - 135.18 // 135.96 - 136.74* ...


The market is currently vibrating around the quantized level at 133.61 with an expected magnitude of 132.83 - 134.40 for the time being.


Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:25 GMT May 12, 2004
EUR/JPY : 5-Day Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 130.48* - 131.27 - 132.05 - 132.83 - 133.61* - 134.40 - 135.18 // 135.96 - 136.74* ...


The market is currently vibrate around the quantized level at 133.61 with an expected magnitude of 132.83 - 134.40 for the time being.


Jeddah abb 06:23 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
thank UAE Oil man

UAE Oil man 06:22 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
There should be some Supports 2.2700-60 area though..but if that falls i guess it s better to cut longs or even short it.

UAE Oil man 06:20 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
A quick peek on GBPCHF , under 2.2700 (closing basis) would bring a fast move down..

Jeddah abb 06:16 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
thank u Dr

Hong Kong Qindex 06:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Jeddah abb 05:55 GMT - GBP/CHF : I do not have updated analysis on this pair.

Jeddah abb 05:55 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex
GBP /CHF low today is 1.2747 do u think possible to go lower, i provide to be long, i think1.27-1.28 is a big support thanks

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Oilman, time will tell soon and I think the "details" not the "numbers" of tonight US trade deficit will tell all needed.

Top trades.

Ldn 05:45 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Bergsten - Doesn"t See Big Fed Interest Rate Rise This Year
reuters newswire

UAE Oil man 05:43 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
A euro love affair ab ? :)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:41 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
nt, how about 12%?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:40 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, THANKS very much!

Will see you all 3 hrs later.

GL and GT.

Those 100 bounces and downs showing that both sides are getting bored and want to have the fight finished today.

Nice day (Trade balance day) is as the minor cycle day. ....

hong kong nt 05:39 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
AB -- are you waiting 10% off from euro 1.2930 for MT buy?

melbourne farmacia 05:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
ab - Next major cycle not until July, that said, my next minor cycle comes into play today. ( Possible break of current Euro range today ). GT

Hong Kong Qindex 05:31 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : My monthly cycle charts indicate that a projected barrier has been established at 0.6724 - 0.6763.

UAE Oil man 05:25 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
...... a testimony to the
tenacity of medium-term dip-buyers; their love affair with the euro has endured three months and a 900-pip decline. For this reason, we are reluctant draw the conclusion that they will suddenly decide to shun the euro and not try to buy again. But there was something different about last week’s
upswing. For starters, it was the biggest recovery since the euro’s February peak. It was an upswing that defied positive US economic data. It also met with the approval of forecasters from the major investment banks and had
the blessing of investment guru, Warren Buffett. That these hopes were dashed in just two brutal sessions must make the bullish view a harder sell.

-Deustche bank research.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:24 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Islander you woke up early today. I have a top T/L for eur/usd coming around at 1.1920-30 area that makes this long position a very weak one at that. Sometime I analyze these situations too much especially when I have some time to look deeper into the charts. The deeper I look the more I find things to confuse me lol. Have a good day.

Brisbane L 05:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Taiwan's Central Bank said that they would adjust their FX reserves if a U.S. rate rise hurts their U.S. bond holdings. . China has been diversifying their massive reserves recently and many feel that this is one of the main reasons that the EUR/USD has based above 1.1750. There have been
comments from Japanese officials indicating that they are considering diversification as well. Asian central banks have huge holdings of U.S. Treasuries after extensive intervening efforts to keep their currencies from strengthening too much

According to a Reuters report

Hong Kong Qindex 05:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:11 GMT - Good afternoon! Sometimes it is better not to use the limit order if you have the feeling. Anyway GBP/JPY still provides a good opportunity and odds at this level.

Brisbane L 05:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Shrs Of Taiwan Cos Add To MSCI Surge also
Taiwan firms to be added to MSCI indexes on May 28 surge after index provider announcement yesterday

Hans Redeker on CNBC says this is a negative for USD against Asian currencies

st. pete islander 05:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello OMIL .... you old night owl! lol

sg edy 05:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know where can i get a 6 month forecast of aud/usd by a reputable bank...need it for university project.thanks alot.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone nothing new to add since nothing really has happened in eur/usd. It is a small range trading so it is a good time to do other things while the market decides on where it is going. I am still holding long position so I see resistance is still at 1.1900-10 and 1.1950-60 and of course right now the 4hr T/L that used to be the support is acting as resistance around the 1.1880-85 area for now. GL GT

Brisbane L 04:58 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Treasurer Peter Costello said Wednesday. 2004-05 budget released Tuesday, the government estimated Australian exports will grow 8% in the coming fiscal year, up from modest growth of 2% in the current year ending June 30.
It predicted the improvement will be largely driven by an increase in commodities exports on the back of Chinese demand. he says "From our point of view, hooking ourselves to the emergence of the Chinese growth engine is crucial to our economic future," Costello told the National Press Club in Canberra. He conceded that China's rampant growth will encounter "bumps" and "falls along the way," but the country possesses enormous growth potential over coming years.
"It will take a lot of work on their financial system in particular, but although you will have spurts and falls...the Chinese growth projections are going to be going one way and that's a way which Australia can really benefit from," said Costello.
ABC

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, may I know about the next cycle day?

hong kong nt 04:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD -- hope 1.182 may hold for rest of the day...

UAE Oil man 04:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
195-197 are good buys on the GBPJPY for the next target @ 216.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:25 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
good morning oilman,

The pic. is quite clear we have biggies on both side now, one at 1.17-1.18 and the other one at 1.21-1.22....

For the oil story, I was told this 4 years ago too. Thanks.

Just wonder why european inflation was relatively high with the long marching soldiers in the past 2 years.

Many good trades and sharing.

hong kong nt 04:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD -- hope 1.182 may hope for rest of the day...

UAE Oil man 04:07 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Ab, There was an energy/OECD report on oil last week, to resume it pretty quick it went on to show that european growth will be the most hit by high oil prices Not USA's this time.
to make it simple:
a rough number would be 0.4% less growth...offcourse europe with it's nearly zeroed growth is going to be hard hit..while US with 4,2 will still be leading the pack..

Brisbane L 02:36 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Merrill Lynch says China growth, inflation to surprise on upside in 2004-05, sharp slowdown "extremely unlikely and that very harsh China measures to slow economy, tighten credit unlikely. Recommends small net positions in region until short-term macro view clears up. In equity, means going long domestic demand, short China, HK, regional steel; in FX, warns vs going long Asians vs USD
reuters

Ldn 02:19 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Australia housing data has "alarming details" for RBA with trend in finance for construction up 5.3% in March, reversing downtrend hoped for by RBA. Central bank not getting further slowdown in new loan approvals, also getting reacceleration in loans for construction, so upside risk to non-tradeable inflation. Adds data raises risk further rate hikes
HSBC senior economist Anthony Thompson

HK Byron 02:18 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q, i closed g/j position early last night at 199... from 202 and 201 level... Was scared by its crazy movement :P...

sgp sp 02:11 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Dr Q, Byron,

Missed my g/j limit shorts suggested by nt yesterday by 13 pips.....*sigh*

Ldn 02:08 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Rumors that Japanese exporters also smaller Asian central bank are buying yen for USD

Hong Kong Qindex 02:06 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 01:57 GMT - GBP/JPY : If 197.20 is traded I will ask for more and wait until 196.73.

nyc sa 02:03 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Good evening , why is the dollar /yen selling off any reason ?

HK Byron 01:57 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Thx Dr.Q, i will monitor the yen and e/g cross at the same time!

Hong Kong Qindex 01:49 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 01:42 GMT - GBP/JPY : Around 197.36 is better if you are doing short term trading.

HK Byron 01:42 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Dr.Q. Think g/j next target 197.2 coming soon :)
Good Trade

Brisbane L 01:37 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Housing-finance approvals in Australia seasonally adjusted -1.2% in March Economists surveyed expected -2.0% in March.
Australian Mar Housing Investor Finance +1.9% Vs Feb

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Gen dk 01:31 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:27 GMT - GBP/JPY : One can ask for more.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:27 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
qindex, channel bottom objective 190

Hong Kong Qindex 01:13 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:09 GMT - Good morning! GBP/JPY : It is worth to take a look.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:10 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:08 GMT May 12, 2004
Spot Gold : the distribution profile of my daily cycle probability cahrt indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 371 and 380.2.


... // 371 - 374.1 - 377.1 - 380.2 // ...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:09 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
But Jap liquidates all the jpy crosses longs as well....

Dr. Q good morning, many good trades.

This range could be quite elastic....

Ldn 00:53 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
March U.S. international trade balance to hit minus $43.1 billion bank's chief FX strategist Tohru Sasaki says more negative than consensus of minus $42.8 billion.
JPMorgan.

Ldn 00:26 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
Overseas players liquidate USD longs across board, taking more profits after recent USD rally, pulling USD/JPY down 40 pips to 112.67 and USD/SGD down 35 pips to 1.7165, says dealers says USD still faces further downside risk in session, with USD/JPY's initial support at 112.50 and USD/SGD at 1.7150. USD/JPY's initial resistance at 113.00 and USD/SGD's initial resistance at 1.7200.
Reuters.

china qq 00:15 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
hi.anyone buy Jpy now?

Gold Coast martin 00:01 GMT May 12, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEYgvm..My short term view on crude is STILL the same..only the timeframe has changed..still believe the info i have is pretty strong once it is released so i will stick with my view until the end of the week...g/l g/t

 




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