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Forex Forum Archive for 05/14/2004

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Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I fell a sleep and did not wish everyone a good and safe weekend. I feel we are like a big family here. I read each others comments have discussions about certain issues and eventually disagree about certain issues. In the end we always come back home (here). Islander that was a good story that seems to be the problem sometimes in life. My saying is live and let live so from there I wish everyone a good and safe weekend and hope to see everyone back Sunday eastern time see you on the other side. GL GT

Gen dk 21:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 20:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Thank you PK....very helpful. Good luck next week guys.

Aden PK 20:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, Pl find below commentary of Mellon
The AUD and NZD have rebounded powerfully but still hold below resistance at .6900 and .6035. For now it is too soon to give up on our cyclical view calling for AUD and NZD weakness into Monday and we should see a re-test of the days lows and a close between yesterday’s close. The supports at .6850 and .5980 should again be tested. However, if the resistance mentioned above go this would signal our short term outlook is wrong.

However I personally feel that .6925 & them .6960 are stiff resistance levels. Wish you GL in your trades and wish all forum freinds a very happy weekend.

Global-View 20:32 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
We gave alot of leeway on a Friday but if you want to continue the discussion, do it on the Help Forum and not on the FF. This is where it belongs.

Dallas GEP 20:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
BTW, took some MORE aussie shorts @ .6921 in honor of my friend Gold Coast Martin. GOOD TRADES TO ALL

Dallas GEP 20:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Everyone have a nice weekend. CLUELESS in Dallas!!! ROTFLMAO!!!

Dallas GEP 20:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
CS, If I were to just to limit myself just to reading your posts. your wish would be realized. NOTHING to be learned from them AT ALL. LOL

NYC CS 20:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
You are geniunely and profoundly clueless. I sincerely hope that you never learn another thing...

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I thought would review so of my so called idiotic positions from earlier. You know the ones that were deemed INCOMPATIBLE with each other!!!!!

Eur/AUD short closed at 1.7176 from 1.7220 +44 PIPS
GBP/USD short closed @ 1.7592 from 1.7630 +38 PIPS
Eur/GBP short from .6750 and .6755 (still working)
AUD/USD short from .6900 (still working)

Yeah, I guess I agree, those were all pretty stupid. LOL
Once again. monet talks and BS walks!!!!

ICT ML 19:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 17:26 ...and all this time I thought we (Beechcrafters of long ago) called it a "forked tail DOCTOR KILLER" because of its poor engineering....not because of "Wild Jim's teach a doctor to fly" school...HAHAHHA

Sometime I'll tell ya about the dozen or so pairs of Geese feet I had the honor of helping tear out of one of those things (several in the cabin!!!!) and the B.S. story the "pilot" told to explain it.......Ya didn't teach a guy to find a twisty old dried up River bed to practice deadsticking into (or buzzing his fishing buddies) did ya?...LOL

Have a good weekend everyone.

Chicago Irish 19:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sometimes amc when they are deep in the money.

ny amc 19:24 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I know it was a stupid question its just that sometimes i cant control myself and just blurt censored out

ny amc 19:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
irish...............so normally you dont hold positions over the weekend

LAX-LGB SNP 19:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
tres interesting formation on GBPUSD & AUDUSD daily ... EURUSD, GBPJPY & Gold weekly

UAE Oil man 19:21 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Well ....It's like asking what can happen during the weekend....
As anything can happen from E.T landing in New york..(But i guess he's there already in the form of Mickael jackson) to terrorism which could move the currency during the weekend in any direction.

NYC CS 19:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
amc - chasm between "probably" and "possibly"

Chicago Irish 19:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
amc:Pick a number and make it a very big one and there's your answer :-)

Boston SAS 19:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hey there I am new to this forum so wanted to introduce mysefl officially to you! I live in the US and work in FOREX so am always interested to get news and info from other who are linked to the industry too.

Hope to hear from some of you soon.

Regards,
SAS

ny amc 19:00 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex.............i have never carried a position over the weekend. right now i amshort eur/usd and long usd/jpy..........how much risk could there be?

Spotforex NY 18:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
soon the dow and oil prices will cross over....with oil being higher than the dow....

ny amc 18:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
cnbc saying oil going to 50 dollars?

OK SZ 18:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Gep, you are the man:) I hope you have a great weekend..

Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
SZ, there is ONLY ONE school in OK, OU, right????

OK SZ 18:38 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
BB, thanks for that heads up..just popped in for a quick sec before pick up my school boy..

saloniko 2004 nk 17:53 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Think will wait little bit more 1.35+ USD/CHF..COS the Big 1.31 elephant dont like to move...


Have a nice weknd!..

nk

USA Biscuit Boy 17:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
This may shed some light for Monday:

"We still see plenty of supply coming in on EUR/USD ahead of the 1.1900 area, but would be slightly more hesitant on USD/JPY. Regulars will know that we have been warning about potential coupon payment repatriation orders at Monday's Tokyo fix. These numbers could mean some USD2bn offered at a time when both the US and European markets are asleep. Therefore, despite a belief that we will see USD/JPY higer in the coming days, we would be very hesitant about going home long today." 4CAST

QC WC 17:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Very possible but expecting a correction first.

ny amc 17:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
does anyone think we see 115 in usd/jpy in the next few days?

Spotforex NY 17:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nice story Pete....

Dallas GEP 17:38 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Very enjoyable ISLANDER!!! Sounds like the student was so focused on the PROCEDURE, that he forgot to assess his other options.

This happens to us all every day. There are ALWAYS other options. Attached to at least ONE of these options is a SUCCESSFUL outcome. If one doesn't see it himself ask another, NO SHAME in following someone else's path. PRIDE gets in the way of success ALL THE TIME. When it's broke, don't worry and despair about WHY, concentrate so that the OTHER opportunities can be taken advantage of like a grass landing field beyond those two trees.

UAE Oil man 17:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 17:26 GMT May 14, 2004

Great one ...cheers.

QC WC 17:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Finally the Contis are firming up again.

st. pete islander 17:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
About teaching:
Many years ago, in another life, I taught a very successful surgeon how to fly. His 'touch' was that of a natural, but he was constantly missing some of the other fine points of flying. He eventually passed his written and flight test. Two years later he came to me for check out in a high performance single engine Beechcraft that he was going to use for fishing and hunting trips into Canada. We worked on emergency procedures more than any other facet because of the rough terrain he would be flying over. One of the biggest was having to make an engine out landing in the land of tall timber. The procedure is to try to place the fuselage of the airplane between two trees and allowing the wings to absorb the impact. When it was time, he went to Wichita and picked up his shiny new airplane and started back home to Chicago. Over Kansas, he lost the engine. Remembering his training, he picked a spot for his emergency landing and placed the aircraft dead center between to huge oak trees. The impact took the wings completely off the aircraft but he stepped out of the cabin without a scratch. It was a textbook operation ...... except for the fact that he went between the only two trees within 16 nautical miles and they were located next to a 3000 foot grass runway belonging to a flying farmer. Sometimes it is very hard to get a student to remember all the lessons taught.

Sorry for the length. Good w/e everyone.

ny amc 17:09 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
oil man.thanks

UAE Oil man 17:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
NY AMC,
Well a bottom is usually found when long termer's and heavy accounts buy then it moves 200-300-500 pips...then you look back and say "hey, there's a bottom"..let's buy...so far there's nothing but a huge top at 1.30..So euro$ trend is still down...It should continue so..there was no bottom found but a range market ..So keep to short side till that euro$ shows some real strenght...That's the only way you won't be buying something that crashes on you..
And look at other $ pairs where strenght were seen ($YEN, GBP$,AUD$,$CAD, and here we gotta skip the $chf and place it in the no mover rank..and to be watched..and not traded.)well it surely doesnt mean that $ is weak...Gold is down 375 , aud$ is down to 6891..Don't need any $ weakness myself but some heavy $ bulls ..Offcourse If euro$ gets back up to 1.24 change views and long it to whereever it wants...but right now it s only showing weakness..

Dallas GEP 17:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sluggish now, but late friday push is possible, which direction is the question???

BTW, if you put a blonde on her head, all you get is a brunette with bad breath!!!! (JUST KIDDING, it is a JOKE!!!!)

NYC CS 17:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark - that's another one...be careful to strip out the currency component of the volatility in the price of gold. Gold is usually quoted in USD. If the USD price of gold changes but the CHF price stays exactly the same, there will certainly be a correlation in the price of gold with the USD, because the change was entirely a mathematical function of CHF/USD. There is correlation, and then autocorrelation.

Van jv 16:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 16:48////Double bottom...potential on Daily EUR/USD

Stockholm za 16:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB >> well done my friend.. wish you a happy weekend…

0… in the scenario that this week we were only able to carve out an Expanding triangle on the daily candles and are now playing the symmetry line for the close…

Oakland Daimyo … fwiw … 99.999999 % of traders do not know jack-$hit about sentiment values, application , implementation & inflection of Fundamental economic war-games in trading……..results = 0…. ………lol
Happy trades to all……….

Minnesota Mark 16:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ok, I'm going to put my 2 cents worth in here. I know some of you watch the gold market and mining stocks. Looking at the YTD XAU index it seems to have pretty much broken down. Anyone agree to the possibility of this thing dropping into the low 70's? And if it does continue will the recent relationship with the dollar break or continue?

OK SZ 16:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
oil man, was just gonna post that question on the double bottom,,tks..I did no see that bottom and potential top is all I see..

BB, way to catch up..have a good weekend

Dallas GEP 16:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man , what is your target on Eur/GBP (noticed guys I used correct abbreviation????)

Sydney bl 16:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
guys any comment on EUR/JPY thanks

ny amc 16:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
oil man..........where do you see eur/usd going to ?

USA Biscuit Boy 16:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi SZ my position trades got hammered and all stopped out a few days ago. Been concentrating on range trading which has been very effective the past couple of days and will be until the market decides which way we want to go.

Dallas GEP 16:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OK guys SELF ASSESSMENT time:

GBP short from 1.7630 LOOKS very good. pound MIGHT break
AUSSIE short from .6900 good but longer term - 2 days maybe
EUR/GBP short from .6750 OK but could have take it higher
EUR/AUD short from 1.7220 OK but could ALSO have taken from higher level - least favorite of the possies

st. pete islander 16:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, not much wind today ... outside anyway. lol Hope your trade works out for you. We sat on our hands today. Have a fine weekend. gl

UAE Oil man 16:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Van Jv, What "double bottom" ...you mean double tops??

Rivonia PipPirate 16:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:44 Well, since the good Dr appears to have retired, pull your keyboard over to the couch and lets start with your early childhood.:-}

Dallas GEP 16:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
PipPirate, you are a good listener, why don't I just use you???? LOL

OK SZ 16:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
BB, what's up you been quiet this week

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Islander seems like a nice day to take the sailboat out. Looks like I am going to let my eur/usd contra intraday long position sit in the oven over the weekend. Who knows I might get some scraps out of it after all lol.

UAE Oil man 16:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Well not a really good day but good thing i m still up...but could be different(like down so overall things are bright lol.).., as i m still holding my wonderful GBPCHF (bought 10 pips from the day's top...Cheers)..
Got rid of the gbpJpy..and holding eurogbp (which is not a scary one in anycase..)..And i'll get rid of the gbpchf if the weekly 50 average is broken(2.2720 or so)..if not still looks "ok" to hold..

Apart from the resume, weekly close to weekly close our famous euro$ princess has held us all in a 10 pips range.
So i get ready for more bull/bear fight next week...And ....Winner takes all...as usual...

USA Biscuit Boy 16:38 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
If it aint broke don't fix it. Money talks and bs theory walks!

OK SZ 16:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I had a fractal buy on the euro at 11787 this morning but did not take it due to it being friday and I usually do not trade on those days..will be interesting to see what we do at 11940 level though..have a good wekend all..off to my second home the gym..gl, gt

Rivonia PipPirate 16:36 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:31 I use Dr Frazier Crane, he is very good.

Dallas GEP 16:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OK FINE. I am not sure how in the world I will be able to make it thru this from day to day with all these rookie mistakes I am making. I am sure I need therapy of some sort. Thanks for the help guys. ROTFLMAO!!!

NYC CS 16:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP - that's like saying that an IBM trader that consistently makes money believes that the reason he makes money consistently is because he insists on buying $1 through the offer and selling $1 through the bid. He may be a great trader, but that doesn't change the fact that he is simply giving money away. You are simply widening your bid/offer spread. You should strip out all of the extraneous parts of your trading that are pure giving money away, and distill out the parts that are making money.

Van jv 16:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Euro was lucky on Fundamentals.....8 ind. prod. strong but may not be sustainable ? with growing inventories.....and Euro numbers improving---they will not cut rates---Inflation will hit both US and Europe.........double bottom confirmed imo today..1.1930 and 1.2170 possible

Va Raven 16:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP, the reason you make money on these trades is because you can sell long at the high and buy back the short at the low.
But if I were you, why not do a straight trade with that skill?

Van jv 16:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
closing 2 positions at different times yields usually different result than that of one

Mfld JM 16:21 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AMEN!!!

NYC CS 16:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Prices used were .675 in Eur/GBP and 1.7590 in Cable.

Va Raven 16:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
If you see profits in long eur/usd position, you book it and wait for the porift in short eur/usd.... ok, what if eur/usd continues to fly another 5 big figures after you booking teh long eur/usd profits? What are you going to do with your short eur/usd position? You have noway to get a win-win case in such so called "hedging" trades. It's not dumb, it's just inexperienced. Trust me.

st. pete islander 16:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Irish, my first trade was in 1973 .... and I can do "dumber" better than anyone I know!

Dallas GEP 16:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
IRISH and CS,Perhaps my last post was a little harsh, I apologize.

Hellll who knows you may be correct. All I know is THIS, I do make very very good money at this and I am not going to change. My thinking is outside the box and IMO it HAS to be to do very well at this because ulimately the HERD gets slaughtered and THAT's a fact.

It is VERY easy to be technically correct and go BROKE. I would MUCH rather be unorthodox and be successful.

NYC CS 16:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Last post on this GEP, no need to get nasty. The whole point is that you only have 1 egg. This is mathematically indisputable. This is not subjective. Do the algebra...If you are short 10mm Eur/long 6.75GBP in the short Eur/GBP position, and you are short 6.75GBP/long 11.87mm USD in the short Cable position, you are net short 10mm Eur/long 11.87mm USD. It's straight algebra.

Chicago Irish 16:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I'll be the first to admit being dumber than a box of rocks every now and then....over the past 25 years of trading.

Va Raven 16:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP, trust me, you are a active trader and eager to learn the game, but don't take other trader's comments too offensively, think it over.
These are so-called "hedging trades" because you need to make the call to cut them or hold them at some point anyway and that's calling for straight biased view like any other straight trades. Another words, you could cut them wrong and hold them wrong too. Market is on-going based flow.

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Irish you and CS are dummer than rocks. BEST trades to you both. HOPEFULLY you don't put all your eggs in one basket nor should anyone else because WHEN you are RIGHT it is wonderful but when you are WRONG, you are broke!!!!

NYC CS 16:09 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP - JK is giving you benefit that each position is following a separate and distinct strategy, and you want to avoid commingling the P&L's so that you can do proper P&L attribution. If your Eur/GBP trade is in a separate account than the Cable trade because you are tracking the CUMULATIVE P&L's of 2 different strategies/models, then fine. I do that too, but don't kid myself that I'm taking 2 positions to reduce overall P&L volatility. I'm intentionally paying away 2 bid/offers for PURELY ACCOUNTING PURPOSES. From your trade rationales, it would appear that you consider all of these trades part of 1 portfolio, and that you believe you are using 2 different pairs to reduce volatility/exposure to GBP. Well, the reason that your P&L will be less volatile than a pure cable trade is because you have no/little (depending on your sizes for the Eur/GBP and Cable trades) GBP exposure. It's just pure Eur/USD.

NYC NYC 16:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP. It is simple math and even if you treat each position separately, your net exposure is what is netted out from these positions. Net exposure is your risk.

OK SZ 16:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
looking on the calendar I do not see anything about hitting Gep today...focus on your trades..Gep been around long enough and can handle his positions just fine..agree to disagree and move on

GA TJ 16:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
If anyone cares I closed the Swissy and Euro trades for 48 combined. Just a little raiding for a Friday.

Chicago Irish 16:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas.Fool yourself all you like.

NY KAY 16:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP should't EUR/AUD goes down when EUR/$ goes down?? why now both are moving the other way around? am i wrong?

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Coming from you IRISH, that's a compliment!!!!

Chicago Irish 15:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
That could be the dumbest thing I've ever seen posted here.

Dallas GEP 15:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
CS, I do get it!!! JK has it perfectly nailed....these possies are NOT on the same timeframes. I purposely DO NOT Have the possies going the same way. WHY????? Because THEN ALL you possies are either MAKING money or LOSING money. I want to be making money on at least SOME of the possies ALL the time and If I can hold the losing possies until THEY are profitable, I make money on BOTH!!!!

Dallas GEP 15:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
JK, you are PRECISELY correct. Under different timeframes we CAN be all correct in our positions, The KEY is can we stay in the game long enough to realize our profits and more importantly WHEN to cut bait and re-enter at a more favorable level. It's NOT the entries that are the MOST important, it is the EXITS!!!

NYC CS 15:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP - you don't get it. Those pairs offset. Perfectly. It's like those morons that are long Eur/USD in one account and short Eur/USD in the other account and think that they can make money on both trades. Mathematically, being short Eur/GBP and short Cable is just short Eur/USD, just as being long $1mm Eur/USD and being short $500K Eur/USD is mathematically long $500K Eur/USD, even if you think they are separate positions.

hk ooozmeeh 15:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
balmain 1.1750 will give in in due time, fwiw..GL/GT bro

hk ooozmeeh 15:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
balmain 1.1750 will give in in due time, fwiw..GL/GT bro

15:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
balmain 1.1750 will give in in due time, fwiw..GL/GT bro

nyc jk 15:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
lol on your 15.30 GEP
yes I can see if you are playing different timeframes on those positions they potentially can all work out for you. gl

Chambery FR JFB 15:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 15:05 GMT May 14, 2004

Not exactly 0... my yday's long @1.1815 and a second one from 1.1800 are in the green, s/l moved at b/e :-)

Happy trades! :-)

sydney balmain 15:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
i am convinced the usd is king. i am putting a euro short i took @1.1987 in the bottom draw (s/l above 1.2000) - away from my pip trading and will pull it out at xmas time at parity for a nice present to myself. once we start the rate rises euro will be a lead ballon.

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
JK, it would appear so BUT there is DEFINITELY more action in the crosses. EUR/AUD ranges 150-200 pips a day normally MUCH more than Euro really. You are absolutely CORRECT I do want the Euro to short but if it DOESN"T short significantly I can still make very good money on the pairs I am in NOW> I like the AUSSIE positon the BEST, THEN the GBP short. BOTH those possies COULD be good for 100 PIPS each EVEN if EURO does NOT short significantly. I only need the eur/gbp pair to move 20 pips and I will be happy it ALready did that once from 6750. I will take some MORE from 6755.

GA TJ 15:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP ROFLMAO.....true but the can be very expensive. If anyone cares I am Short Swissy from 1.2987 and Long Euro from 1.1856. Just looking for 15 to 30 PIPs each. nothing major unless something spooks the market.

hk ooozmeeh 15:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
new york star imvho, fwiw.... sell yen on dips. gl/gt

new york star 15:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
how is the yen looking room?

Dallas GEP 15:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
TJ, this pair longed in ONE day over 500 PIPS. It can damnnn sure go back the other way and I will be there for it. It is like an incredibly beautiful trophy wife, under the RIGHT set of circumstances, that can be a HELLL of alot of fun as long as you keep in mind she ain't there for your looks!!!! YOU GOT THE MONEY BABY I GOT THE TIME!!!!

surabaya ginta 15:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
bee bandung, r u there?

nyc jk 15:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP - a constructive comment - you positions don't seem to match your views. you say EUR is a mixed bag but you are bearish on STG, yet you are short EUR/STG and short
STG - the net of those two positions is basically just short EUR. similarly, you are short EUR/AUD and short AUD also, net of those two positions is short EUR. so all up you are basically just short EUR even though that is the one you say is a mixed bag.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP you are busier than a squirrel in autumn LOL.

GA TJ 15:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP, How many times are you going to the alter with this pair. I would have personally learned after 4 divorces. BTW, my signals are still upfor this one. Hard to believe but.....

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Took EUR/AUD short @ 1.7220. Add that to the dammm list!!!! LOL

Oakland Daimyo 15:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 15:05 GMT May 14, 2004
My sentiment exactly. Technicians 1 Fundamentalists 0
GT to you.

Livingston nh 15:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
two profitable Fridays and still not happy - very bad, very bad
// last thing I went to my gas station to get my "rebate" because CPI said gasoline price actually declined .3% but the dealer had charged me 4% more -- he said I don't get a seasonal adjustment / I hate Fridays

Stockholm za 15:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

After All the Noise - We are back to 0
Happy trades.....

Livingston nh 15:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Closed Cable short at 1.7601 - lesson learned - last Friday I closed AUD ahead of employment - - 1.20 profit but of course AUD went south big time after the number - so this week don't make the same "mistake" (was not a mistake charts looked bad but target was reached and didn't want to carry over the w/e) -- anyway waited today and it cost me 120 "shoulda" pips

I hate Fridays - see ya'll next week

Gen dk 15:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 14:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

whitesea YJ 14:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY IS HEADING TOWRDS 205.00 IT IS MEAN 400 pip profits!!!!

boulder dat 14:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 14:33
i prefer the simple adage: go with the flow. i try not to lead anything in the markets. when the markets start moving, i just get on board and go with the flow. served me well in the past ten years.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ooozmeeh you are right again you cannot get in the market without a plan and a good R/R. I have no fear of my eur/usd contra intraday long because I play the % in my system IMHO. GT

hk ooozmeeh 14:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP 14:42 re:GBP same here bro.GL/GT to you

HK Byron 14:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD still looking for 1.1930

Dallas GEP 14:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Current possies include short on Eur/GBP from .6750, short on GBP/USD form 1.7631, short on Aussie from .7900. Looking to LONG eur/jpy from 135.23 with tight stop. Euro is a mixed bag but POUND IMO is a definite short.

ln 14:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
reading all the posts seems mkt still 2way and undecided about where we are going. play the ranges and dont try and be smart and look for breaks is my opinion. when it breaks it breaks but until it does just by low and sell at key levels rebying on any breaks...ps long cable from 1.7510 stop at entry

hk ooozmeeh 14:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ let me borrow what OMIL said earlier " as the saying goes on" if your in doubt stay out!!!

OK SZ 14:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
think if I am long the euro I'd be a bit worried here..

Gen dk 14:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LHR B747 14:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat: it is bit more than your view, rules in FOREX trading died long, long time ago!

It is better to be a leading fox than a following lion :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
You are right ooozmeeh the market is wild today as the saying goes no pain no gain lol. GT

hk ooozmeeh 14:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...i agree.. anything is possible..watchout!!! the market will be wild toady!!! fwiw

hk ooozmeeh 14:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...i agree.. anything is possible..watchout!!! the market will be wild toady!!! fwiw

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AMC I hope not because it will take my stops out lol. ;-)
Anything is possible I put my cards on the table and hope that it works out for me but I don’t think we will see 1.1800-10 today at least.

boulder dat 14:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 14:02
often times just the opposite. euro should come down as the individuals who were protecting the 1.1750 options will now start unloading their long euro's that they were buying to protect. if you were going to play that theory of options expiring, then you would want to short the euro.
just a though.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia I know your platform printed the number about 3 hours ago so don’t worry about it and have a beer.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:55 GMT May 14, 2004
Ok it is about time I am in now for a contra intraday buy signal on eur/usd. Will raise stops after it breaks resistance. I have a low on fx cm for 1.7450 on gbp/usd pair FWIW.

sydney fg 14:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
was stopped out at b/e on an aud long earlier today. bugger.
Threw a fair whack out at 6920 as eur hit.1900, took them back here for 15 ticks and now I off for a couple of sherbets.
good luck all.

ny amc 14:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
miami......do you think we still could see sub 1.18xx

hk ooozmeeh 14:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
datas already came out...the market did its part... time to buy dollar, fwiw....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AMC I have rough numbers around 1.1855-65, 1.1810-20 and major support at 1.1760 for now IMHO.

sgp sp 14:09 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
ok nottingham.....that is good enough for me....half now, half b/e

thanks :)

melbourne farmacia 14:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
WC -closed on limit, I don't give a censored, my platform hit the level...

Gen dk 14:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ny amc 14:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
miami..omil...where do you see support now for eur/usd

Nottingham 14:03 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp, those offers are not insignificant but if those stops above are taken there will be good supply at 6945/50/55 which ought to limit the rally, is what I'm hearing from people...gl gt

QC WC 14:03 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
1.1885

houston st 14:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

NY KAY 13:59 GMT - congestion around 1.1900, and likely resistance at May 12 high of 1.1940..gl/gt.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I posted this earlier as resistance:

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:54 GMT May 14, 2004
VIIES how far are you riding the eur/usd for? I have 1.1900-10 and 1.1950-60 if it can break this resistance. GL GT

LHR B747 14:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR set to rise, options just expired

Gen dk 14:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

OK SZ 14:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
11920/11940

NY KAY 13:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
what is the next major res. in EUR anyone pls?

OK SZ 13:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
remember my earlier post the euro 21dma is 11920 and I am looking for a pullback there..will see

houston st 13:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

peeling off some eur/usd length here..hope everyone had profitable trades today..have a great weekend.

london 13:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF finishing the week with a failed weekly buy fartal

sydney balmain 13:57 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
ooops

Van jv 13:57 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
seems 13:15 Ind. production strong No +.8% sent EUR down/ balanced by +.7 bus. inv?/; 13:45 Michigan cons. sent. no change=> Eur up

boulder dat 13:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
ny amc...

Michigan sentiment came in a little less than expected. it was a combination of about five peices of data that came out that wasn't what the market was looking for. lower CPI says the Fed can wait, and now this saying that Sentiment isn't as high as the market had hoped.

Nottingham Daniel 13:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
14May 13:45 USD Michigan Sentiment - just out

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ok it is about time I am in now for a contra intraday buy signal on eur/usd. Will raise stops after it breaks resistance. I have a low on fx cm for 1.7450 on gbp/usd pair FWIW.

sgp sp 13:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
thanks nottingham....are they as substantial as the ones from 6830 ~ 6850? I was eyeing 6930 ~ 6950.

will problably close half first and move the remainder to b/e

ny amc 13:53 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
what made eur/usd pop like that

Porto PJT 13:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:47 , other day i was stopped on aud 6 pips below others banks.and aud is less volatile than gbp.

Gen dk 13:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 13:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp, aussie offers from 6910 to 20 with stops above there

QC WC 13:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, checked many banks, maximum low seen was 1.7480 and not sure if can buy at that level.

GENEVA FHR 13:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UOM 94.2

sydney balmain 13:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
we've seen the high for the euro. mrk needed a good clean out of shorts. if the euro were to keep going it would need dollar sell off across the board.. thats not happening. downtrend still intact and just a matter of time.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia is checkmate for eur/usd and me until it breaks the range it has acquired for the last few days. GT

ny amc 13:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
thanks nottingham

melbourne farmacia 13:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - been holding for three days, nice to off load them at good level. Hope Euro's keeping u well.. GT mate.

Gold Coast martin 13:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Love trading these aud ranges...its pure profitable adrenalin.....

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
add nzd short .6025 all s/l .6045.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Like I said before I don’t think it is a good idea to pull the trigger to early for eur/usd. The resistance has held up but it is not over for the bulls yet and as long as the bottom support stands there is no real strength for the bears. Intraday indicators are still bullish in my charts IMHO.

Nottingham 13:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
ny amc, omens are not good whilst below the 1870 trendline...you have some ma support at 1833 which may inspire some selling down to figure/1790, below which you'd fancy a crack at recent lows...above the trendline exposes 1885, then 1900/05, 1920, 1940 1940...all of which makes the pair very sticky today and a nuisance to trade...gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 13:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 13:34 GMT - You are welcome.

Sydney bl 13:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
thank you Dr Qindex

sgp sp 13:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,

I will have to take a raincheck on that invitation....there is no way I can leave Singapore anytime in the near future...but thanks anyway.

And ur usd/cad levels....thanks for that too.

;)

Hong Kong Qindex 13:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 13:31 GMT - EUR/JPY : I guess a pullback is imminent.

ny amc 13:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nottingham........what are your thoughts on eur/usd here. i am thinking of shorting for a pullback to around 1.1775?

Sydney bl 13:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
DR Qindex what's your view on EUR/JPY thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 13:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:27 GMT - I do not follow Spot Silver.

Nottingham 13:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q...re gold 366...bang on what we have here...any take on silver, fwiw here 5.39(5.37)...gl gt

Nottingham Daniel 13:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q - I sq'd my position yesterday - as I feel their is something in the air - and will relook at the situation early next week. My view is still down but don't wish to risk anything at present. - Always respect your views Dr Q.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 13:19 GMT - Good evening! Tomorrow I am going to have lunch in the canteen of Aberdeen fish market. I will bring you there if you come over.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:21 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 13:17 GMT - Spot Gold : I guess it is not a bad idea to square short positions around 366 if seen today.

sgp sp 13:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening Dr Q,

Hope u r having a great time in HK.....had just initiated a small aud/usd long......at 6859.....30 pips s/l .....if I make some pips, nt will get his seafood dinner courtesy of me....if not...well, looks like he got pay for his lobsters, king prawns and giant crab legs.

gt 2 u

Gen dk 13:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham Daniel 13:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q Thanks - but I am expecting Gold to drop a little further - and Euro to revisit the recent low again - (need a little more time before I can be certian on the Euro)

Hong Kong Qindex 13:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:43 GMT May 9, 2004
USD/CAD : The congested area of my weekly cycle is projected at 1.3533 - 1.4225 (1.3533* - 1.3706 - 1.3879 - 1.4052 - 1.4225*).

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nzd .5955.

that's it for me.

GL!

Hong Kong Qindex 13:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 17:04 GMT May 9, 2004
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.3587. The pattern of my weekly cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to trade between 1.3793 - 1.4000 initially. The lower barrier is positioning at 1.3484 // 13587 and the mid-point reference is 1.3536. The upper barrier is expected at 1.4000 // 1.4103 and the mid-point reference is 1.4052. The market rhythm is represented by 103 pips (k=0.0103) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.3414 - 1.3792. (Suggestion : Assume a range trading between 1.3793 - 1.4000 initially and maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.3793).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 13484 // 1.3587 - 1.3690 - 1.3793 - 1.3896 - 1.4000 // 1.4103 ...


Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Qindex the resistance held for now. GT

LHR B747 13:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:11 GMT: yes, Mr. Buffet paid USD 600M for things going wrong some weeks ago.

Inflation on such low levels with sky rocketing oil prices proving your point.

Gen dk 13:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, I am still figuring out the exit for the nzd short prior my mj...

will place limit and have mj fun.

Ldn Viewer 13:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Rent paid ... no beer money .. Martin good call ...lets see Numbe .. GL all

QC WC 13:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks , will watch out for it specially if can trade lower like below 1.1695 as of today. Ur 13:05 refers to GBP, agree if below 1.7435 will cut.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 13:08 GMT - We have to wait and see.

OK SZ 13:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
qindex, yes agree it bounced off the 11870 pretty good..thinking you might be right..thanks Q

sgp sp 13:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 12:55 GMT May 14, 2004

Well I am glad that it is working for u.....had not looked at usd/cad for quite a while and thought abt it today and remembered ur feb's posts.

Will be glad to read ur opinions on this pair should u feel incline to share them with us.

Good Day to u. :)

Hong Kong Qindex 13:12 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 13:07 GMT - Spot Gold : The odds are in favour of pulling down to 370.6.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:11 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 13:07 GMT - EUR/USD : I don't like the response of EUR/USD so far, something is not right.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:06 GMT - I have a feeling that EUR/USD will challenge the lower barrier of my weekly cycle in the New York session.

Sydney bl 13:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex, please explain more

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Good trade Farmacia you got your beer money for the weekend now lol.

Nottingham Daniel 13:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:04 GMT May 14, 2004
I have a bad feeling for EUR/USD and Spot Gold today

"What is your feelings" Dr Q

OK SZ 13:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, please explain

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex what bad feeling do you have about eur/usd today? tia

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
History repeats.... traders remember well what happened last Fri.....

melbourne farmacia 13:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
WC - low on my platform 1.7450, My levels after 1.7515 -1.7473 and 1.7434 etc..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
VIIES sounds good. I will take it one step at a time. We will see how it pans out. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 13:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I have a bad feeling for EUR/USD and Spot Gold today.

hk ab nzd 0.65 13:03 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
recent eur/jpy is really a big hoax in this year......

Maybe we can see a hike in Jap earlier than EU :D

Gen dk 13:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 13:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:54 - I have bigger plan for this position. trying to ride it up to 50 % retr at least.
with in and out trades improving my b/e.
everything from 1,1550 to 1,1750 is very very good area to get long in my view for the test of the double top neckline near 1,2325..

oc 13:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
small plane did crash in residential neighborhood only pilot on board

houston st 12:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

QC WC 12:43 GMT - a little delayed reaction, but gravity finally took hold..gt.

Porto PJT 12:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Just a small acident, only the pilot on board and crashed in residential area.

saloniko 2004 nk 12:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ant Tol 12:46 GMT May 14, 2004

Dont bother of the posts of anyone here and dont believe all the posts..lol.........;)

Have a nice weekend ;)

nk

LHR B747 12:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

A small plane crashed in a residential neighborhood just east of Baltimore-Washington International Airport Friday morning, killing the pilot.

dc fxq 12:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
an MU-2 carrying small cargo crashed on approach to BWI (closer to Baltimore than DC. no fatalities on the ground - big deal!

LHR B747 12:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR // True, a kind did not estimate right the range from his remote :)

Ldn Viewer 12:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 12:45 - Mate appreciate your call , position is protected and if done then ok with that ...let see anyone confirm this plane rumour ... TIA

Nottingham 12:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 12:48 GMT

has been working until now...and you know my motto by now...use it until it stops working on a regular basis (since it will always fail when the trend changes medium term)...i.e. look for a warning sign of 2 or 3 sequential closes on opposing sides of the line to signify a trendless market and only get back on the boat after the first time it starts to work again...however, so far so good, although I have a suspicion we are due a reversal, but that's just my own opinion and isn't reflected by prices as we stand...gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
VIIES how far are you riding the eur/usd for? I have 1.1900-10 and 1.1950-60 if it can break this resistance. GL GT

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:53 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, the 1hr bb protects the nzd.

Gen dk 12:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 12:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ant Tol 12:46 - Im saying that world is dynamic you mora.n

good day. and grow up

GENEVA FHR 12:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
there are rumors of a plane crash in washington nothing confirmed

sgp sp 12:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
good evening nottingham,

I remembered sometime in feb, u posted abt usd/cad and the sma 10 trendline. Have u changed ur mind abt it or is it still workable?

Thanks and good trades.

QC WC 12:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Faramcia, cable did dropped that low?

melbourne farmacia 12:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Out of all cable shorts at 1.7473 fwiw.

Ant Tol 12:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Never mind...., just remember what you saing next time..

i am leaving...

Gold Coast martin 12:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LDN....be careful you may be done like a dinner in the next 4 hours..take your beer money now and enjoy the week end..good luck..

Gen dk 12:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 12:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
euro...trendline at 1870

QC WC 12:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Don't be too sure Houston, place your stops to reverse.

Ldn Viewer 12:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Stop at 1.1824 , rent paid .. now bring on the beer ... if 75 trades stop moved to 50 .. will trial stop all the way up ... if I get done so be it ... GL all

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
gold bounced back down....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have intraday buy signal if first resistance (1.1855-65) breaks IMHO. GL GT

Tallinn viies 12:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ant Tol 12:41 - you were once 5 years old. are you still???

probably you are

Tallinn viies 12:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
no inflation yet, FED can chill more? maybe 25 bips only?
usually they start with 50 bips if they change the trend

Ant Tol 12:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
remember you told you see eur at 1.4000 soon, it was dec 2003
you should be drunk , if you follow your words

houston st 12:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

not as much negative reaction to CPI from the $ as there could have been..round 2 coming up in 38 minutes..gl/gt.

Ldn Viewer 12:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Move stop to ATM on EUR ... if 50 trades stop to 1.1824 and lock in 10 pips , pays the rent , then I hope for beer money ... GL all
Position long EUR at 1.1814

Tallinn viies 12:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ant Tol 12:29

are you drunk?

OK SZ 12:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I have a feeling we are going to touch the 21dma on the euro at 11920 today and then maybe reverse..wthk

LHR B747 12:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
The real movement will start after double-no-touch options expiry, looks like long EUR

IMHO only

GT all

QC WC 12:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, maybe not tonight! Good luck!

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
and now that option buyer can sell his euros bought for these few days slowly... .... v. interesting.

ham cla 12:32 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
CPI +0.2%, Core +0.3%
bussiness inv. +0.7%

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
basically, we are all fighting with that option barrier only......

Hong Kong Qindex 12:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:46 GMT May 14, 2004
EUR/USD : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that if the market can penetrate through the barrier at 1.1766 - 1.1777, EUR/USD will head for 1.1705.

Ant Tol 12:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies where is yuor 1.4000

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Any body think the numbers will be leaked this time LOL.

Gold Coast martin 12:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
HK...AB..NZD..longing any commodity currency in this current market is full of traps....be careful...

Nottingham 12:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.65 12:19 GMT

no sorry ;) but fwiw talking it with a pinch of salt as it could be down to some high usdcad longs sweating over the 1.40 barrier...gl gt

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp// maybe this is the ultimate move I mentioned yesterday.
will long aud, nzd for no doubts.

Tallinn viies 12:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
most of the move down from 1,29 to 1,24-1,25 area came from perception that EUROland is not going to hike soon as most of the market thought.
move down from 1,25 to here 1,18 area came from expectations that US will hike rates and EUROland will be cut rates soon.
today we are in situation where US side is 90% calculated into formula (that why dollar near the strongest levels) and most of the market think next euro rate move will be lower...

Euroland GDP number revealed us that maybe there will be no rate after all, also export numbers showed that even with higher dollar grothw is good.

this is the reason why I think euro could move toward 1,24 soon. probably after taking out stops, and after 1,15sh seen.
all imho of course

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, any source? TIA!

Brisbane L 12:18 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
BAGHDAD (AP)--The U.S. governor of Iraqi told regional officials Friday that the U.S. would leave Iraq if requested to do so by the new Iraqi government .L. Paul Bremer told a delegation from Iraq's Diyala province that U.S. forces would not stay where they were unwelcome.
"If the provisional government asks us to leave we will leave," Bremer said, referring to an Iraqi administration due to take power June 30. "I don't think that will happen, but obviously we don't stay in countries where we're not welcome."

sydney fg 12:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
no volatility in the lead up - unless these figs come in as a massive surprise either way, I see false moves ahead. Stay safe.

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
come on nzd, gimme that blip....

Nottingham 12:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
fwiw there is talk of some fall out for cad if 10 year bond spreads finish the week negative i.e. in favour of US$

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, if we are lucky, we can see some special eur/jpy avalanche next week in 2 days.

Rivonia PipPirate 12:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 12:01 Thx, either way it's a cliffhanger.:-}

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:11 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, I am still keeping the eur/chf long 1.5363 alive.... 4hr, daily all bottom out.

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt// small sell and based on the 1hr bollinger....

it obeys that quite well. So the s/l will be a SAR.

hong kong nt 12:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AB -- really worth to sell NZD at .6000 line?

sgp sp 12:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
another late night again? I don't get it.....the mj stakes don't justify the time spent on it. :)

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
small limit sell nzd .6015. tight s/l (15 pips?)

hk ab nzd 0.65 12:02 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp// fwiw, longed aud/nzd 1.1430 on limit.

mj postponed to 1 hr later.

Livingston nh 12:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia Pip Pirate - yeah but if the trendline ran through the 1.1758 level a few weeks ago it has already broken the extended t/l - look at a line chart on a closing basis// I just can't see the significance of 1.1750 lvl on this move - but the market will reveal all soon

Nottingham 11:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 11:36 GMT

re the figures you stated for US CPI, are they your own/consensus based on your own opinion taking, as we have gathered our own and consensus is a tenth lower on both, although admittedly all surprises were said to be skewed to the upside

Tallinn viies 11:57 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LIE mik 11:51 - no, long

dc fxq 11:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
CPI @ 0.3%--- = USD/EUR 1.2000 and above

are you serious? CPI is not that big a number. I'd look harder at Michigan Sentiment as a major market mover tody and then nothing like 2 big figures on its own.

LIE mik 11:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Tallin, u r short eurusd? tks vm & GT

UAE Oil man 11:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Well a good simple number is 1.00...why look for hard when easy is in front of you lol.

LHR B747 11:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
CPI @ 0.5%+++ = USD/EUR 1.1700 and below
CPI @ 0.3%--- = USD/EUR 1.2000 and above

CPI @ 0.4% (as forecasted) = USD/EUR 1.1750-1.1950 within the next 48HRS of trading.

GT to all

Rivonia PipPirate 11:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 11:33 Good day, Euro sitting on multi-year TL have anything to do with it?

Tallinn viies 11:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 11:33 - for me round figure is 1,1500

hong kong nt 11:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
The surprise of USD may be on the south side tonight...

UAE Oil man 11:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Well..Euro is doing long farewell's to 1.20 line...it's standing over a precipice....And ready to stumble another few figures.

many are ready to drop longs and sell the break of 1.1750...which might not come..But longing and praying that it doesn't doesnt seem like a healthy up trend.

Global-View 11:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade, see the GVI report posted below.

Belgrade Knez 11:38 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

Can someone inform please: Is Michigan sentiment out at 13:15 GMT or 13:45 GMT?
TIA

GVI john 11:36 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1795…$/yen 114.80
DJIA -34 pts… 10-yr 4.87%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
The focus early Friday has been the April U.S. CPI figure due at 12:30 GMT. Market expectations are for a rise of 0.3% in the month after +0.5% in March. As the markets start to discount a jobs recovery, they have already fast forwarded to the inflation issue. If the recovery is now on track the next issue for the Fed will be making sure the inflation genie does not get out of the bottle. The CPI data today will help shape in a general way perceptions about the future pace of Fed tightening. As far as the markets are concerned, a Fed rate hike on June 30 is already done deal. April Industrial production data will be viewed in the same general context today.

With the U.S. economy still in the lead globally, any signs of economic strength will br reflected in the dollar, and thus today it has a positive tone pending the outcome of the economic reports today. The $/yen is virtually up against the 115.00 line where K.O. options are said to be resting and hedge funds are thought to be ready to protect. For symmetry more than anything else some are eyeing the eur/$ 1.15 level also. If the dollar momentum holds a test of both 115 levels could be in the cards.

Eurozone GDP advanced by +0.6%,the fastest pace in three years in 1Q04 as exporters benefited from burgeoning demand in the U.S. and Asia. Europe continues to lag the U.S. and Japan, but these data are yet another nail in the coffin for hopes of another ECB rate cut.

The Aussie$ continues to be weighed down by concerns about the impact of growth in the U.S. on relative interest rates. No matter that at 5.25%, the cash rate is still significantly above the 1.0% fed funds rate and that even the most aggressive forecasts for fed tightening see neutrality at 3-1/2% in fed funds in about two years time. This would still be well below short term rates in Australia. The markets are now also conveniently overlooking a much stronger than expected April jobs report. Jobs increased by 56,200 in the month. An increase of 5,000 had been expected. The unemployment rate was kept unchanged at 5.6%. Recent trends in the employment data suggest the RBA might have to start to reconsider its steady monetary policy in coming months.

We have been on this topic for a good while. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui noted on Thursday that while it would be premature to detail a new monetary framework for Japan that the central bank will provide early signals ahead of any policy changes to prevent disruption of the markets. Another Bank of Japan policy board member, Shin Nakahara on Wednesday might have let the cat out of the bag when he repeated his idea of setting an inflation target of 1-2% for year on year consumer price increases. We have been picking up hints for a while that the Bank of Japan would like to move in the direction of an inflation targeting scheme. On the other hand, this is not going to happen tomorrow as Fukui reiterated that its ultra-easy policy is not going to be changed until core CPI stabilizes at zero or higher.

CALENDAR
FRIDAY, May 14, 2004
12:30 GMT- CDA- March Manufacturing Shipments
12:30 GMT- US- April CPI: vs. +0.5%, +0.4% ex-F&E March, see +0.3%, +0.2%
13:15 GMT- US- Apr Industrial Production: vs. -0.2% in Mar, see +0.3%
13:15 GMT- US- Apr Capacity Utilization: vs. 75.5% in Mar, see 76.7
13:45 GMT-US- Mid-May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: vs. 94.2

Livingston nh 11:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
For some strange reason 1.1750 has been selected as a line in the sand for the EUR -- there is a lot of white space underneath BUT the very fact that most commentators have selected it argues for a sharp reversal once breached// it doesn't seem a major support on the charts - just a nice round media figure , like 1.30

LHR B747 11:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
When the CPI data come out?

saloniko 2004 nk 11:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 12:48 GMT May 12, 2004
Euro is Kissing Good Bye 1.17..


Have a nice day!

nk

Gold Coast martin 11:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UB..GG...I dont see the 110 within the next 3o days...The best scenario for that pair would be a correction to 112 in 2 weeks after a high of 118 has been reached...hope this helps....good luck..

UB GG 10:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin - Hi, what's your one month view on USD/JPY side pls? any chance through 110.00. Thanks

Sydney bl 10:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin thanks

Gold Coast martin 10:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY ..bl....the short term AUD story for the next 2 sessions is down..down...down to 6775 at the end of ny session...g/l.....

hk ab nzd 0.65 10:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nt, gd for you. However, think the group is still rushing for the bottom of the shoulder.

UAE Oil man 10:21 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dc Fxq, Lol yes i had guessed as much too...



---
In eurogbp as posted.

Nottingham 10:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai Mitali 10:08 GMT

depends on what you class as o/s, but based on my analysis, the pair has been this o/s (current level) on at least a dozen occasions this year...this doesn't mean it will go down, but that it still can go down...gl gt

ln 10:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai Mitali 10:08 GMT. watch as i sell some more.

Sydney bl 10:18 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin what's your view on AUD/USD will it go below 0.68 tonight thanks man

dc fxq 10:13 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 05:31 GMT May 14, 2004

for those wondering "that site" is from the infamous Vienna GB aka JessyD et al., if you doubt it check the phrqaseology - Dollarbubble, Housingbubble, etc.

rotflmao

UAE Oil man 10:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Will try selling EurGBP 6741. (not taken yet)

saloniko 2004 nk 10:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 09:46 GMT May 14, 2004


Or 119MAX -100 fast AS i think..

nk

Mumbai Mitali 10:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I think this is the hieghts of "lowness"- In GBP- Hourly, 2 hourly, 4 hourly, Daily, Weekly charts are all highly oversold !!
So....... Pound cannot go lower than this

pd cumino 10:03 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR NOK could be a decent pos. trade.
From a general perspective: CPI was weak, Norge Bank meeting is 28 May, even a rate cut is possible. Nothwitstanding oil is a sure plus for NOK, it means major transfers to Petroleum fund, which means CB will need to recommence market sales of NOK to fund the Petroleum Fund Investments.
Spec positions are squared, RR flat, implied/actual/garch studies not obstacle.
From a tech point of view there is a reverse H&S, with neck at 8.24 (for the Elliott lovers a break could be a C wave).
A simple 1m RR strategy with strike above neckline, to say 8.08/828 at 30 delta could be considered.

hong kong nt 09:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AB -- exited all GBP shorts...

slv sam 09:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 09:46 GMT May 14, 2004 /
I have no more money to cover for any new trade other than $/cad shorting at 1.3760..which i am ready to wait for months..m/time.. my account accmulating interest difference :) as for $/y i am only watching..this is why my opinion here may prove to be correct!GT

UAE Oil man 09:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
114.99 was my previous Bearish point..which acts now as a resistance...but once we're over it..Long marching soldiers will make that one Fly again...like in the good old days.

Nottingham 09:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
beware of the trend on a friday...it may not be your friend

UAE Oil man 09:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hey sam , don't place another mortgage for the $yen , it might come to 120 and 150 faster than you think.

UAE Oil man 09:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I remember on Monday hearing "this is the low of the week"..it s friday things are going lower and lower..and people keep on saying this is the low of the day...

slv sam 09:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
imho $/y is ready for a pull back..108 level next week??!!GT

LHR B747 09:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trichet just said the 10% of EUR holding are at non-EU hands, may someone knows what is the ratio per USD?

Gen dk 09:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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Gold Coast martin 09:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Despite my previous forecast on crude down to 35 not meeting todays timeframe i am prepared to leave my position open as i still believe there will be a turn around in crude price on the week end as my information is still valid until monday night...good trades to all....

hong kong nt 08:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD 1.7500 may hold for rest of the day. fwiw...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
any EU data? TIA.

UAE Oil man 08:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
No at 1.13 add....but lower stops.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp// have a nice NY session.

My take is a reversal on aud, cad and yen. with yen seems more promising after Sunday M/E oil meeting.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
oilman, even eur next target is .99xx I think it will not be reached in one take right?

What level will u decide to unload some m/t shorts?

1.13?

chester wb 08:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
euro/jpy getting interesting 135.49/64 levels may be good shorts if it gets back up there .break those levls wait for 136

sgp sp 08:44 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
no problem ab....just pop in and see us when u r thru with ur mj. :)

hoko 08:40 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
You might need more options and volatility than the stock market like trading the money market. You will find comprehensive information on this subject at www.forextraderengland.com The site is really informative.

pret Aj 08:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Despite doing my homework my stock market investments are not doing as well as I expected. Help please!

pret Aj 08:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Despite doing my homework my stock market investments are not doing as well as I expected. Help please!

pret Aj 08:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Despite doing my homework my stock market investments are not doing as well as I expected. Help please!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp, nt I will have mj tonight. GL for your trade.

nt, hope you can close your gbp short today.

saloniko 2004 nk 08:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 08:26 GMT May 14, 2004

Might u will not wait so Long..*!0


nk


UAE Oil man 08:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 08:07 GMT May 14, 2004

There is no FX god..However buying stuff that falls on weekly is more risky than selling them..
Again I'll look to buy when 1.24 is seen.

EU ZORRO 08:21 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
...Good morning all....

...Just a note......I'm not the author of the "Grand Super Cycle"......and....

....I'm still BUYING/acumulating cheap EUROS....



saloniko 2004 nk 08:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 07:47 GMT May 14, 2004

OIL Man first of all be human and dont try to be God on FX..

Its only posts and opinion of mine..which if u dont like dont read them..

1.17 and ****1.13xx**** is important levels ..i guess.And always say i Guess cos always in FX could everyone be wrong..

Smile..
nk

Tartu kuues 08:04 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
USD bull trend will probably start after US president election

Tartu kuues 08:03 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 07:53 GMT - I am sure he will close his pos
whith profit and we can see 0.85 as well but its just take time
poss rolling is quite expensive (soon interests will change ) but over all if he got balls and pocket then lets carry on
medium term i personally see at least test of 1.24-25

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:57 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy manipulated again LOL....

UAE Oil man 07:53 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
And he is still short from .9950...perhaps in time it will come back...but then it's not really trend-following..unless he's using some kind of charts I don't have access too ..lol.

UAE Oil man 07:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Let me tell you something..I have a friend who is short from .9950....Well he couldnt take it in that euro$ was going up...People don't realize trend change oftenly..

Tartu kuues 07:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 07:39 GMT - totally agree with you
GL & GT

UAE Oil man 07:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Or are you going to buy to .6550?!?!...

Bris TW 07:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
He wont listen Oilman. Has been reading that website so much and is blinded.

UAE Oil man 07:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 07:39 GMT May 14, 2004

When will YOU become Bearish euro$ ,NK...
let's imagine...that is continues down...in a nice and SLOW move (like from 1.29....trend still needs to pick up speed)...

Where will you say...Alright euro$ is going down...I was wrong..?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:41 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Ok Boqueron good luck us then. :-)

saloniko 2004 nk 07:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Helsinki TK 07:32 GMT May 14, 2004

I think if u follow BC posts u will have suxxes..

Euro..:Smart BUY around..IMO in front of 1.17

nk

Malaga boqueron 07:36 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami, Give it 1,1820-30. I'd be a seller there with a stop above 1,1850

Ldn Viewer 07:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I get a feeling go long EUR at market stop below 1.1750 ... MACD did not even budge in last leg down and RSI has some upside room .. on hourlies .. IMVHO
Position long at 1.1814
Initial Target 1.1930 , will hold iff breaks ... GL all

Helsinki TK 07:32 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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Wellington 07:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
eur close under 1.1801 in 2 hrs will be 4hrs chart key reversal.

1hr has already made one.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Boqueron I might leave some pips on the table but I won’t pull the trigger early and get caught in the crossfire IMO. How high do you see it go up before the test of the support?

Malaga boqueron 07:22 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami, thanks. Good odds stops below 1,1750 will get taken out before those levels are seen.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:19 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Boqueron read my comments earlier a failure at those resistance points will give a good entry IMO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:55 GMT May 14, 2004

MONACO OGA 07:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 14/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1800), 60 pips lower than Thursday's opening. Yesterday the market lost all the ground gained the day before with a 0.25% US rate hike now a certain fact. After European closing, the market briefly dipped under 1,18 (low 1,1773) before stabilizing around 1,1820. Overnight the pair was rejected at 1,1840. This morning we have the feeling that EUR/USD is encountering more and more selling pressure and 1,1760 could well crack and trigger strings of stop sell orders down to 1,1580. On the upsides, 1,1840 then 1,1900 should offer some resistance. We favour a neutral stance but unlike the precedent days we will monitor the 1,1750 level and try to go with the flow if it breaks.

Data out today:

EURozone GDP Q1 expected 0.5% 09.00 GMT
US CPI April expected 0.3% 12.30 GMT
US business inventories Mar expected 0.5% 12.30 GMT
US industrial production April expected 0.5% 13.15 GMT
US capacity utilisation April expected 76.7% 13.15 GMT
US Univ Michigan Confidence May P expected 96,0 13.50 GMT

Gold at 374,00, with WTI June higher at 41,10

***JPY***
USD/JPY (114,50). The pair resumed its upwards yesterday and printed a new 8 months high at 114,80. An explanation to USD general strenght is the increase of Oil prices: with a stronger USD, the US are less likely to suffer from this price shock.
EUR/JPY currently 135.00, rather stable, The cross looks to be forming a base around 133.50, we still believe the market is toppish up there.


***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7575), like yesterday, GBP looks to challenge 1,7540 again. Selling pressure appearing between 1,7680-1,7740. Overall we are neutral, but a test of 1,7450 zone looks more probable than ever.
EUR/GBP (0,6715) still consolidating above 0,6715-20 pivotal point. We still favour some long positions and a retest of recent highs.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

UAE Oil man 07:17 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I don't really think the market is overly bearish on euro$..it's more the case the euro$ are sulking out there....near-term panicky..

melbourne farmacia 07:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sg - that's generally how things pan out...

Malaga boqueron 07:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami, how high is higher ground?

UAE Oil man 07:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY 201.70 short..stops to entry.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I will wait for either a break of support or higher ground to sell eur/usd IMO.

Malaga boqueron 07:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
correction. further out

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I would not pull the trigger just yet on eur/usd. This last move for eur/usd was mostly induced by the eur/jpy. I have a support for eur/jpy holding right now at 134.85-75 and another one at 134.54-44 area for now. Until that support goes then there will be no move to take out the support for eur/usd IMHO. GL GT

Malaga boqueron 07:07 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man, 1,1625 today, but good odds that a little further much lower levels are in store before this thing can turn around. 1,08 should be attainable.

sg 07:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Since everyone is so Eur bearish, it must be a good buy at the current level.

UAE Oil man 07:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 03:57 GMT May 13, 2004
1.8060<=1.7960<=1.7810<=1.7670=>1.7550=>1.7420=>1.7330=>1.7017


I m still looking for 1.1625 today..as i said beginning of week....few hours to go.

Malaga boqueron 06:58 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUUS, looks like all the stops below 1,1750 are going to get blown out. Look out below, as all euro buy on dip crowd bails out.

Wellington 06:57 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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SLC TJ 06:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Where are we headed for this round on cable Oil Man? (You're Highness) Great calls BTW

sydney fg 06:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
long aud toasted.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
famous jpy crosses dive!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:48 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
gb/jpy eyeing 191 Q's target?

SLC TJ 06:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
what's going on with cable? sharp move

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
nice nice... carried another group eur long 1.18....

UAE Oil man 06:38 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I nearly sold it at 135.50 and stops at 135.95 but hesitated.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, eur/jpy has a nice record in May 1997 which dropped 9 fig. in May in two days.

chester wb 06:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Oilman; what do you think about euro/jpy

hk revdax 06:25 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Q//i am in HK. please check your email.

Wellington 06:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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Hong Kong Qindex 06:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 04:26 GMT - Thank you for your information.

sydney fg 06:09 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
long aud stop moved to b/e at 6869. Glove on to prevent smelly bottom picking finger.

SAIHAT 05:59 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR
R-1.1935-1.2015
S-1.1773-1.1691

Brisbane L 05:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Fed Appears Certain to Raise Rate by .25 Percent: John M. Berry

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee have been telling the world for months that rates would rise once it became clear the economic expansion would not falter.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hello Oil Man good to see you around more often. I believe that those same people that have the oil have the power and they will at all cost try to stop or slow other source of energy from being discovered IMO.

BTW my eur/usd short intraday position was closed to secure profits. I will wait to load up again on higher ground. Intraday resistance is 1.1855-65, 1.1900-10 and 1.1955-65 at the moment IMHO. GL GT

UAE Oil man 05:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps..But it s Merely hypothesis, saying "We will find a new source of energy"...Meanwhile Energy is oil..And NO one is ready to let go of their only source of energy reserves and supply for a dream which might not come true.

Bris TW 05:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 05:37 GMT May 14

Yes of course. My wife drive an electric/gas toyota. but when ferrari make an electric car that is faster than a petrol one i will buy heh.

HKG SK 05:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Oil will drop to 9$ by 2030 as we would have founded a new source of energy by then.

Wellington 05:37 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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UAE Oil man 05:36 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Now that's "nice" Super-cycle..lol........

UAE Oil man 05:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
There i found it hahaha..

quote "DOW JONES target 5000 FIRST till 2006, 1000 till 2012, 355 till 2025"

Bris TW 05:35 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
i remember that site from long ago and still look at it now and again for a laugh. it was zorros first ever post here.

and yes oil 200$

UAE Oil man 05:34 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Well the answer is...ELLIOT WAVE...they still looking for the "Grand-super cycle" in Dow jones too...to 900 or "lower" ..

UAE Oil man 05:32 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Now who would think that in a rising demand market and lowering supply , a price would fall from 200$ to 9$.

Bris TW 05:32 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
according to the chart 1.46 euro before november. got to love that elwave jargon lol

UAE Oil man 05:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Quote from Zorro "OIL target 60$ FIRST till 2006, then 200$ till 2012, after oil reserves are empty down to 9$"
from that site ...


Well..lol...No comments.

Montréal Taro 05:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I went there and it works well, with the #

Bris TW 05:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
mid page there is a elwave pointing to 2.00+ without much retracement until 1.46 then towards 2.20

Bris TW 05:28 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
not sure how to ad a link direct to the site. Try without the # it is the same site. works here

UAE Oil man 05:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
The page doesnt load up..

Bris TW 05:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Wonder if Zorro is still busy buying cheap euros for 1.40?

Some strange elwave lines there http://www.geocities.com/jessydgb/#

Bris TW 05:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
I guess so ab

UAE Oil man 05:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 05:00 GMT May 14, 2004

Hi...The cat is doing fine, very $ bullish as usual for this time of the year..but who knows..

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:10 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
TW, sometimes will make .65 in a funny way.

And one of the take is when many people are looking for .5 in short term.

UAE Oil man 05:09 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:47 GMT May 14, 2004


No you misunderstood..it's my own setup which is a non-event in itself..and it s 24 days left..Not today...And it's not even on the euro$ it s on the AUD$..My target is .6500..
Long spot .76 and put 7600 and put 7900..all that was taken in january..so it s coming off 24 days.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
seems we have carried another group of aud bulls at .69 now....

oilman, what's your short term target on aud?

mine one is .6750.

Bris TW 05:00 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 08:33 GMT September 8, 2003
Hello there Oilman good to see you back from lurking mode.
I myself am holding shorts in gbp/usd @ 1.5897 and eur/usd @ 1.1105 looking for a few hundred pips between them but not as low as your targets.. I will trail stops at lower levels.
So your cat got stoned on some sweet hash cookies then? LOL good one ;)


Been a while oilman..how that cat of yours? Being long from the above levels would have been sweet. but for now back to the old days of shorting for 1.07 and 1.60

BTW NZD will be down to .50 before seing .65 and it will take a bloody lot longer than 3 months lol. What price are you long at HK ab? 63-64?

UAE Oil man 04:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
and actually the praise is yours..You are the one who stayed in..Wether my post helped you enter or not..sitting on profits is harder than entering.

UAE Oil man 04:54 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 04:39 GMT May 14, 2004

Well done victor!...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:47 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
oilman, u mentioned sth 0.25 days to go last night.

so, u expected all those option expired or going to expire before NY?

prague viktor 04:39 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Oil man:Good morning,I just close the yen @114,6 thanks friend for ur help and ur post from april..

UAE Oil man 04:33 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
No but if people want to say oil is paid in euros, I m not going to argue..or if they think euroyen moves $yen i m not going to argue either....Not at this time (woke up only few hours ago.)

UAE Oil man 04:31 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Sold GBPJPY 201.70

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 04:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
so give it a try, btw are you the one responsible for the oil price ?

UAE Oil man 04:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
"sure" shot...never heard of that in trading.

LA ARTOFYEN 04:26 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hello there Dr Q...hope all is well.....with those rumors of the BOJ lobbying out some of their accumulated 104-105 usdyen purchases around the 114.50-70 area thru corporate custy deals (wink wink), along with the regular japanese solid offers up to 115.00, the odds aren't all that bad. Of course it would help if eur/yen decided to once again run after 134.50 and even take out 134.05 old daily fibo former reistance now support. I see 136.00 as a sticky level to break on topside for now and I also see a serious dog fight to get usd/yen up and over 115, even though that is the direction the market is now leaning towards....Big swiss bank, along with us invsentment house bought loads around 114.25-45 earlier in our day so that would be first warning sign. This 115 could very well be the key. all best and thnks for all your great posts, mate!!

Wellington 04:25 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
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)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 04:24 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
yes good one theres weekly supp line, its sure shot

UAE Oil man 04:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Morning,

Bought GBPCHF 2.2937

milwaukee KLB 04:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
going short eur/usd to 1775 or lower with a fast bounce back north

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:11 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
The vigorous move yet to come.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:08 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
symmetrical tweezer on nz is pointing .56-57.

right now we are at teh .382 from the 2002 upmove to the top .7103.

sydney fg 04:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
i buy aud here. s/l 6840. target 6950.
higher low suggests repeat of monday - wednesday rally to me.

Ltn th 03:56 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
As a nett exporter of oil and natural gas and coal why does the same not occur with AUDYEN? Or dont the USD's paid for the oil etc come back into AUD's?

Hong Kong Qindex 03:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 03:50 GMT - USD/JPY : It seems to me a strong pullback is imminent.

LA ARTOFYEN 03:50 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
HK...oil is paid for in dollars and Japan basically imports all of it's oil needs...that is alot of usd/yen to be bought.........

Hong Kong Qindex 03:46 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
sp, aud/nzd has bottomed in 4 hrs.

place aud/nzd long oda at 1.1435. s/l 1.1380 (may need to be adjusted for 10-20 pips depending on the aud or nzd move) target for m/t run.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:42 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
bc// May I ask why higher oil --> weaker yen?

Isn't that the higher the oil, the yen need to be strengthened to reduce the oil cost?

Thank you very much.

OK SZ 03:30 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
ab, agree but that is one of the many probs with the forex market..hopefully one day it will be cleaned up..gl, gt

mex sjs 03:29 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
florida vv, go to help fprum , tehre is a comment for you...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:27 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
vv// that's probably a hoax... don't believe these stops couldn't be filled wiht the efficiency of automated computer system nowadays....

OK SZ 03:24 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
unfortunately that is one of the problems with the forex market.when markets move fast stops usually are not guaranteed and they will fill you at the best opportunity..probably best to find someone else if your not to happy with them

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:20 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Martin any update for today?

Florida vv 03:15 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Just a question
Last friday I was long 8 lots Eur/Usd with tight s/l... was allready in green, but it crashed like a dead bird and my s/l was never trigered and it closed 60 pips lower. I called that censored broker, he talled me that my s/l never traded that is why it has been closed at the best possible price which was traded after the gap.
Is it common? should I continue to fight my pips, or just forget that service and take my remaining money from them?
TIA VV

OK SZ 03:11 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
watching the eur/jpy has moved about 50 pips while the euro has hardly moved at all..

hk ooozmeeh 02:49 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
test

Bahrain KZ 01:45 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys..anyone shorting chf?

HK Byron 01:43 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Dr.Q, thx very much for AUD update, it's useful and urgent for me :P

Hong Kong Qindex 01:24 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : 370.6 is the key quantized level in my monthly cycle charts.

Gen dk 01:23 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 01:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 01:01 GMT - Good morning! I am concentrating a little more time on the analysis of gold.

OK SZ 01:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
thank you all for your opinions..gl, gt

Dublin CK 01:01 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Dr Q.

clonakilty glenn 01:00 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ
I'm planning to short at the same level SZ....problem is it seems to be a common view, and usually when we all agree, the opposite happens. If it gets up there, I'll be with you in the short trade, because with the US CPI coming out later it won't go too much further north until the figs are released.

Let's hope there's a CPI surprise one way or another so we can finally break this range. GL/GT

sydney fg 00:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
good chance of a few reaction pips in that SZ imho, but danger is that a break above 1.1830 might signal new up trend for the day. I would expect any up move for the next 12 hrs or so to be contained by 1.1920 fwiw.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:55 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is still under pressure and the odds are good that the weekly cycle barrier will be challenged later today.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:26 GMT May 9, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The congested area of my weekly cycle is projected at 1.1674 - 1.2008 and the mid-point reference is 1.1841 (1.1674* - 1.1758 - 1.1841 - 1.1925 - 1.2008*). The key quantized level of the weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2008. A projected barrier is located at 1.1793 - 1.1821. Initially the market is likely to trade between 1.1793 - 1.1916. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1793 - 1.2039. Projected supporting points are expected at 1.1731 and 1.1670. The lower barrier is expected at 1.1731 // 1.1793 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2039 // 1.2100. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips (k=0.006149) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.1670 - 1.2100. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of taking a short position if the market is trading below 1.2039).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.1424 ... 1.1670 - 1.1731 // 1.1793 - 1.1855 - 1.1916 - 1.1978 - 1.2039 // 1.2100 -


Hong Kong Qindex 00:52 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is going to vibrate around the critical point at 0.6909.


Hong Kong Qindex 16:23 GMT May 9, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantised level of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7092. The congested area of my weekly cycle is projected at 0.6836 - 0.7092 ( 0.6836* - 0.6900 - 0.6964 - 0.7028 - 0.7092*). The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 0.6909. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 0.6787 // 0.6848 and the mid-point reference is 0.6818. The upper barrier is located at 0.7153 // 0.7214 and the mid-point reference is 0.7184. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips (k=0.006102) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.6848 - 0.7153. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7153)


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 0.6787 // 0.6848 - 0.6909* - 0.6970 - 0.7031 - 0.7092* - 0.7153 // 0.7214 ...


OK SZ 00:51 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
well think selling euro around 1.1860/70 is a start.. if we get there, any thoughts on this?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:18 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
BC thanks for the comments if this is the case then as I see the charts for eur/jpy chances are for a break of the 1.1760 support soon for eur/usd IMHO. GT

sydney fg 00:16 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
i'd like to put in a periodical thanks to all contributers fwiw.
thanks and good luck all.

ny amc 00:14 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
shanghai.........i feel the same way dublin does. keep posting. thanks

ny amc 00:12 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
thanks guys

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:06 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:48 GMT May 13, 2004

Japan is heavily dependent on oil so if oil price rises Japan suffers thus you trade yen off oil chart by buying usd/yen when oil rises and selling when oil falls

for eur/usd it seems Japanese are buying euro selling yen so you will only see real euro weakness when you see sellers emerge in eur/yen

hope that helps

shanghai bc 00:05 GMT May 14, 2004 Reply   

CK -- Thanks for your kind words..Good trades..

 




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