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Forex Forum Archive for 05/16/2004

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USA Biscuit Boy 23:33 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Wellington perhaps you can post the report in the new GV research so we can all read it. Cheers :)

wisconsin tim 23:30 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
gee thanks well. it's not like we can't read the one 5 posts down

Wellington 23:27 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
*** SPECIAL USD Forecasting Report ***

Max McKegg (proprietor and founder of TRL) has just
released a Special USD Forecast to his customers
world-wide. If you would like to receive a copy, then
Email: [email protected]

sarasota jf 23:20 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
ab - they been making so much cash doubt give up now - would think another tough week for the small guy - in office at midnight et gl

hk ab nzd 0.65 in 3 months 22:55 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
jf, do u think elephant will leave this week? Have a nice week.

Tokyo Jon 22:20 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello all, If you wish to see my probable daily range and forecast visit www.causeandfx.org.uk

Charlotte Stafilo 22:13 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
ck, that is so true

Dublin CK 22:05 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Stafilo,

The best way is to become the middle man and make money both ways. Like a retail broker.

Most other ways are a hard slog.

GL/GT

Charlotte Stafilo 22:02 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
hi Dublin, how do we do that?

Dublin CK 21:51 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Howdo folks,

Lets get ready to make some money.

test 21:04 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
test

Wellington 20:51 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
*** SPECIAL USD Forecasting Report ***

Max McKegg (proprietor and founder of TRL) has just
released a Special USD Forecast to his customers
world-wide. If you would like to receive a copy, then
Email: [email protected]

brisbane sunstate 19:58 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
HCM 19:41 GMT May 16
This one may help
http://www.omatrix.com/easmanual/fprobband_frame2.htm

HCM 19:41 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone use probability bands in their trading? Anyone know a link on the web to explain the formula behind them?

thanks

sarasota jf 19:27 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
gep - if we all werent trying to help or add our 2 cents we wouldnt post - we all make mistakes - lets put in a good week of effort gl.gt

Charlotte Stafilo 19:14 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
many thanks to both Mel & Sarasota for the info......i'am greatefull. I 'am a new kid in the block....i think i just found a new place to call home :)

TORONTO aviator 19:02 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Sarasota JF
Many thanks for your informative post.

Dallas GEP 19:00 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
OK, I will put it as bluntly as I can. CS was right about what he posted Friday and I was wrong. It was actually ME that was dummer than a sack of rocks on this one. LOL

I know there those of you on the Bank side that don't care too much for us retail guys anyway for whatever reason. I never really understood the concept of why there always has to be a winner and a loser. I think we could learn from each other if given the chance but egos for the most part get in the way. We all know something the other doesn't. If my path is wrong, that's fine with me. I will go your way.


GL Good Trades

sarasota jf 18:37 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
re these hedging transactions talked about friday - all that is if your system says eurusd is 70-73 and on one you sell and the other you buy so you think your hedged - you really are selling below below the 70 bid or buying above 73 offer - the only way not to have market risk is to have no position - these hedge trades give your broker more money and open you up to o/n interest charges depending on your set up - if you calculate it out it doesnt matter how far the market moves you are locking in a loss for yourself - as a further example at a bank i can sell eurusd and buy euryen net out my euro and be left with a usdyen exposure and i can cover it exactly but on retail you cant do that you have to clear each currency on its own and pay away a further spread - no-one should ever think hedging or taking offsetting positions helps you - the reality is it makes you poorer

sarasota jf 18:31 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
adding to mel - all the dealers in that early timeframe had a good handle on each others limits (ie how large a position they could hold and if you gave them anymore they would be forced to follow you) - so if for example dean witter in those days dealt in three places the market would move 200-400 points prior to tokyo open and clear out all the orders - after a couple years of this - the orders from nyk came with the clause not to be executed till tokyo open - and the sydney market died down alot - plus some of them were getting killed with the volatility - once the daily losses by a couple of banks hit the million dollar mark per day - that ended that - now these retail guys are saying you can trade on the weekend - that is simply not true and your orders are cannon fodder

st. pete islander 17:58 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Mel, great post. Many thanks. I hope all that come here see it. Maybe Jay can have it reposted again for those who might miss it in this time frame.

Madrid CAB 17:49 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP / Mel
Tank U very much for your posts.
GT/GL 4 week.

TORONTO aviator 17:41 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Weekend Transactions:
Thank you MEL.
You have answered my questions and increased my knowledge, by way of your excellent post. I hope lots of others on this forum will also share their thanks.

Va Raven 17:22 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
This forum used to have some nice educationable pieces posted by some experienced and sharp traders during the weekends..... I see that returns again today, good one, Mel.

Dallas GEP 17:20 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks MEL, so for all intents and purposes you CAN'T trade unless you are actually ONE of the market makers??? (as far as weekend trading goes). This reminds me alot of black market trading if that is the case in that it is not a REAL recognized market YET transactions are seemingly done at least on paper. I have one platform that I no longer used that did a REPLAY on after hours trading so they took your stops if thet were hit at ANYTIME from Friday close until Sunday opening. I could NEVER get a handle on this exactly because they closed down the platform feed of course and when I asked EXACTLY on what basis some of those stops were filled prior to MY platform becoming LIVE again I always got some BS answer.

Moscow Mishanya 16:45 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
LA Mel thanks for a great post

LA Mel 16:09 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Re: weekend transactions

in order to have a better understanding of these fiascos, one has to have a little bit of history. real exchange rates are set by banks. and in the end determined by capital flows. (we wont go there now). before the electronic age in fx, rates were set by banks using voice brokers. banks also traded directly through one another via phone, and the reuters dealing system. dealing would start in auckland/wellington on sunday afternoon/monday morning wel. australian banks would start early monday too. not every bank in the world had nz or aust branches. so on friday afternoon, they would telex their orders to a friendly bank down under and have them watched until their tokyo came in. some banks wouldnt even consider the early pacific region a viable center, and would send their orders directly to their tokyo or singapore branch.

so in new zealand, the dealer whould look at where his currency closed. lets say dollar yen closed at 118.00. he would look at his orders which were at 117.90 to buy and 118.10 to sell. he would then punch into the phone line to his broker and say ninety-ten i deal. there would be the nz open of dollar yen. 20 points wide. then another bank would be a better buyer, and punch into the same broker and say ninety eight bid. another bank might be a better seller and say, 03 i sell. thus, 98-03 would be a reasonable dealing spread. this would be the same for the other major currencies. scandies and some european currencies were not traded until at least tokyo.

sometimes, before the first price was made by the dealer, there might have been a geo political event that had happened over the weekend. it could be a comment, terrorist event, natural disaster, or even a revaluation/devaluation. since we are on yen, lets say that for example, over the weekend, tokyo had a horrific earthquake. this would obviously be bad for japan, and the yen. the yen dealer at the bank would know this, and at the very least would not want to be selling dollars and buying yen. more accurately he would raise his bids much higher in the market. an american in sydney was famous for this. he might have had a 120.40 stop loss for good amount, and trigger it. other banks would have similar orders, and follow suit. that is how true 'gaps' happen.

in the early 90's EBS or electronic broking system, was created by a consortium of 14 banks, and almost completely did away with voice brokers. it is the benchmark for establishing highs and lows in most currencies with the exception of cad, sterling, and sometimes aussie. banks relied more and more on the ebs, and a whole consolidation of the industry started to happen. banks would close branches, and many, even go 24 hours.

this whole business of retail platforms filling their customers on stops before the real market opens is bs. these platform operators are making an absolute fortune doing it.

there used to be some trading on saturday within the arab world, and some bullion trading in between the houses in hk, but it was not recognized in the real world.

prices are only as good as the people who input them. the market opens in wellington in the morning. anything in between ny close friday, and then is not real. anyone who wants to tell you different should go back to macau, vegas, or atlantic city...



TORONTO aviator 15:52 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry typo:
I was referring to your 15:22GMT

TORONTO aviator 15:50 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:33 GMT
Excellent question.
I have wondered the same thing. I look forward to an answer from 1 of the experts.
Have a good week/

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
BTW that post earlier was suppose to read shorts from .6900 and .6921 on AUD/USD

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Something I never really quire fully understood is how prices GAP over the weekend if NONE of the platforms are open??? who are the market makers then and how exactly are transactions done when everybody is supposedly closed down????

For example I have that AUD/USD is currently .6862, from a close of around .6910 on Friday so WHO was it that was selling AUSSIE AFTER HOURS and how are those transactions handled????

Karachi sgs 15:13 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Plse advise an alternative webpage where I can get history, hi,lo,close for the majors. Apparently Global-view has not updated so far. It may be due to some technical reasons. They have been very punctual so far. Thanks.

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JON. I got two possies left open from Friday, AUSSIE shorts from .7900 and .7921 and Eur/GBP shorts from .6750 and .6755. Pound shorts were closed as well as eur/aud shorts

BTW CS, you were correct on the EUR/USD thing. I made more money on the gbp/usd shorts than I would have on the eur/usd shorts BUT had the gbp shorted significantly eur/gbp shorts would have been negative

Tokyo Jon 11:10 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
still trying to work out the link to post

Tokyo Jon 11:08 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
hello all, trying to find how we can post in this stuffed up version

houston st 03:40 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   

Q - I agree..looking forward to the coming week..have a good weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:57 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : A Strong Pull-Back is Imminent
QIndex - Sunday May 16, 2004 - 02:52:48 GMT

GV Research


nyc sa 01:12 GMT May 16, 2004 Reply   
good evening , could someone please give me a link to currency quotes history going back to 1994 ? thnx .

 




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