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Forex Forum Archive for 05/17/2004

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Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 23:56 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
nice for seeling usd/jpy...now at 114.22 to get 113.71 as minimal profit

chester wb 23:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
euro/jpy looks ready to short but no clear signal yet

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 23:54 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning all !!
eur/jpy still on the bullish signal to get 138.58 ...top

Brisbane L 23:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Japan Jan-March Annualized Real GDP Up 5.6%
Japan Jan-Mar Real GDP Up 1.4% On Qtr;Mkt Expected +0.9%

Ldn 23:40 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
A Dow Jones survey with 21 banks finds much of USD bearishness of earlier in year is evaporating solid U.S. data herald start of Fed hike cycle. USD outlook next 6 months brighter than it's been for some time, talk of U.S. rate rise

Brisbane L 23:26 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Aussie getting smashed today ( Risk Aversion )

David Mozina, head FX strategy ABN AMRO. Says sell-off of Asian equities today could push AUD/USD through 0.6800 level says 6500 in 3 months.

probably best not to catch a falling knife at the moment !!

hk ab nzd 0.65 23:10 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
need some more brave aud and nzd here......:)

Brisbane L 22:45 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Also not helping the AUD at the moment ..it having its usual run of bad news

The Australian government's big-spending election-year budget has failed to equate to a bounce in voter support, according to the latest Newspoll survey published Tuesday.
Major opposition Labor has instead pushed ahead of the ruling Liberal-National coalition in the primary vote measure, recording 44% support compared to 41% for the government.
Two weeks ago, Labor and the coalition were neck and neck on 42% each. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor would win an election if it were held now, the Newspoll published in the Australian newspaper showed. The center-left party commands 54% support after preferences are distributed, ahead of the coalition on 46%.
ABC

hk ab nzd 0.65 22:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
these types of move just showed us all the hot money are still rolling and l/t money stalled.

hk ab nzd 0.65 22:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sam, beware of your dlr/cad short here.... the election is not kidding event....

but undeniably, i am surprised to see 1.397 prints when I wake up.....

Brisbane L 22:16 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Aussie underperforms overnight despite USD weakness , also Asian currencies markets sold them off in European trade on view of underperformance for region, AUD lumped in with Asia, China story still a stress, now India too.Break at 0.6800 opens path to test 0.6300 over next month.
Michael Workman currency strategist at CBA

Charlotte Stafilo 21:56 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
test

CAIRO AG 21:40 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
If Aussie breaks here, it might show us a descent 30 pips quickly on the way to another attempt towards 0.6965 !!!

NY GG 21:39 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sell both euryen and gbyen for 100 pips. both have reached a top for the 8 hour charts. place stop slightly above the 8 hour top mark.

OK SZ 21:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I am really curious as to why the euro is still hanging around the 120 level..I thought we would have had a nice retrace by now..maybe this evening..gl, gt all

Livingston nh 21:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Watch the US bond market - idiots buying from the highs of last week - this is not furrinners

CAIRO AG 21:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has a view to short EurYen from near here???? Or GBPYEN???

GL & GT

GVI john 20:54 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2030…$/yen 114.30
DJIA 9,907, -106 pts NASDAQ 1,877, -28 pts
10-yr 4.69%, -9 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE



See GVI for full text


Gen dk 20:37 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 19:29 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Look at the charts -- these are spikes - do not subscribe to the anti-usd talk

OK SZ 19:22 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, oh yes I do agree I was just pointing out that a lot of us were calling for the 117-115 to come sooner rather than later..I like your remarks about letting the market take us there; gl, gt it will be interesting to see if what asia wants to do though

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:18 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
SZ it sure is but this trend has not changed yet this is still a sell on rallies mid term logic until the market says otherwise. This Bull Run is still intraday contra trading. Looks like some support here where the resistance used to be at 1.2000-10 for now IMHO.

Wisconsin tim 19:14 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
add to that in a few days they will most likely be back unless the range breaks when we are sub 11900 again

Gen dk 19:10 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

OK SZ 19:10 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
it's kindo of funny when you think that just qbout everyone was calling for euro to hit 117-115 here we are back up to over 120 and possibly beyond..I always get nervous when I hear this and it seems to always happen..just a note due to boredom..gl, gt all

Moscow Mishanya 18:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh
agree. no fundamental support.

Livingston nh 18:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
unloded all USD/CADat 1.3978 - still expect 1.43 but need flexibility

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hope you are well ZA you are right about the gate concept 1.2140-50 is the gate for 1.2460 with 1.2230-40 as the last stand and 1.2460-70 is the gateway for 1.2930-40 with 1.2640-50 as the last stand IMHO. Happy trades to you

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
1.2470

Livingston nh 18:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
that's 175.80 not 1.7780 of course

Livingston nh 18:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
short Cable at 80 (target sub1.7780) - none of this movement today has any fundamental support --

OK SZ 18:17 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
za, thanks mate..will do; gl, gt

Stockholm za 18:14 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ >> Every Gate has it`s swing parameter on both side … the 2060 level is not that important…It’s just a factor of the swing. Put up a 30min chart and measure it … there is many stronger gates before the 1,24….
& Very BIG important DNT way up the road…..
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo…… lol
Happy trades to you all

OK SZ 18:12 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, thanks for the info..I like your ideas very much and they seems to confirm mine..thanks again..have a great afternoon

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:10 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 17:29 GMT May 17, 2004
I believe there could be a temporary top for the moment at 1.2060 although I have no sell signal in my system yet. It is no man’s land at this time in my system for eur/usd so you are right at this time it is not a good idea to guess where it will go. The intraday indicators are in O/B territory with mid term indicators turning to bullish mode. What goes up must come down so watch for the fibos I posted before. As long as 1.1880-90 holds the bulls are still in control. On the other hand if resistance is taken out 1.2060 and 1.2090-95 then we could be looking for a move to take out a bigger resistance 1.2190-2200. That resistance would give way to the 1.2460 level. These are levels that we can use but eventually the market will let us know where it is going it is better to follow the market and let it tell you what it is going to do % is for a drop to the fibos I posted before IMHO. GL GT

Livingston nh 18:08 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Think about how insignificant Canada is to the USD - the only thing that saves them is interest rates // a poor excuse for a currency

OK SZ 18:08 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I cannot remember who said this but monday's usually follow the trend from fridays which in this case was up..(think maybe BC had said this) I have not studied this at all but is interesting just the same..

Tallinn viies 18:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:38 - I think euro is even here OK buy ahead 1,23 withn a week.
although would prefer to buy near 1,1960 or 1,935

Global-View 18:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:
GVI 17:34 GMT May 17, 2004
Canada's Goodale to skip New York G7 as vote looms
Monday May 17, 11:18 am ET

OTTAWA, May 17 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale told U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow he would skip this weekend's meeting of economy ministers from the world's seven richest nations, a spokesman said on Monday.

Prime Minister Paul Martin is expected to announce a federal election within days and schedule the vote for June 28. Campaigning could be under way as Group of Seven finance ministers meet in New York on Saturday... LINK .

nyc fxdh 17:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hit market news at 12.52....didnt see reuters in nyc

Tor Pumpkin 17:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ok, but the Goodale announcment came around 11:20 EST.

nyc fxdh 17:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
goodall claims schudling difficulitets

nyc fxdh 17:54 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
reuters has a story cad finance ministrer Goodall wont attend g7 this weekend...rumors of rift with snow

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 17:48 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Za PS: Happy trades to U too....
My IMHO - go south )

France Paris-the rumour man 17:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Kangooroo hunters with wild guns on the prowl , offers chunks, BEWARE.

Nottingham 17:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
swiss dg, re aussie, some demand seen at 6850/30 with stops below and, if triggered, way open for 6770 fibo, the next key support...gl gt

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 17:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ZA We stay in the gate at the moment :) I'm only interesting your view on direction ;) up=sky, down=he1l!!! )))

OK SZ 17:44 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
za, don't you think that the 2060 level has to be cleared to open the gate at 124? TIA

Stockholm za 17:41 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:13 GMT May 17, 2004
fwiw.......
gate to censored = ~1,24
gate to censored = ~1,15
Happy Trades To you ......

JHB SA 17:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanx friends, I will take up the battle....GL GT.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 17:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR high 1.2059

Swiss DG 17:32 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
What happened to aud/usd. Any target?

OK SZ 17:31 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I have 12060 on one and 12061 on other

JHB SA 17:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Yebo.Can anyone please tell me the high for eur/usd today. Got closed out at 1.2067, but see on my broker's screen 1.2060 high? TIA. GL GT.Closed out at 9.40 usa time.

OK SZ 17:29 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I am either going to buy the euro break above 12060 or wait for a sell signal maybe 40ish or so..OMIL what is your take this afternoon?

trademan 17:28 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hi to all. I try to develope a trading system according to daily charts. I try this because i want to play 1 - 3 trades per week. From your trading is this aidea right? Thanks a lot

london cam 17:09 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham. Many thanks.
I was called away and just read your response. I'll avoid EURAUD for the moment. gl gt

london phil 17:08 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
a triple top hourly charts on gbp jpy just hit

sarasota jf 17:04 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
gaza/jk thanks - getting ready to go agst the recent euryen trend ard 138 - altho doesnt look like the premise is false "china" , however ill play my tiny part - gl.gt

nyc jk 16:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:43 GMT May 17, 2004

I guess there are probably a lot of them, but here is one I know of :
"I am very cautious about going against the herd; I am likely to be trampled on.....Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of a herd and am on the lookout for inflection points."

OK SZ 16:58 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
well folks just stepped in and see the euro has made a nice move today..looking at the charts I do not see a short as yet..maybe the around 40 or so but that does not look appealing..anyone see anything different with this pair as yet..

Gaza Ibiza 16:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
jf!---Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it" .....I knew i was doing something wrong with this trend following systems!

Nottingham 16:56 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sorry london cam I just noticed you were after euraud...only one thing to say here and that's carry trade unwinding...flows dominate and technicals take second place...today traders here were stopped out/and or longs triggered on the break of the key 1.7300/20 level and targets would be in the region of 1.75/1.76 with not much interest to short until the latter is reached or until a key day reversal is seen...gl gt

CAIRO AG 16:50 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Biscit Boy// One day, TWO YEARS AGO, I shorted the CAble from 1.6990 if i remember well ( was the 1st tim,e i chat with ML as well ) and u asked me the same question..

WISH YOU REALLY BEST OF LUCK.... ure a nice guy.

GL & GT

nyc jk 16:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thanks Biscuit Boy, was just curious as "large" has different meanings to different people here, gl with it.

Spotforex NY 16:45 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Good luck BB, thanks for clearing that up....you have a strong conviction and you put your money behind it...

happy hunting....

USA Biscuit Boy 16:43 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Well large for me is 100 lots (using alot of leverage). I know this is piddly to most here but I like to use small, medium, or large to convey conviction.

sarasota jf 16:43 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
anyone have that soros quote about trading against trends ?

nyc jk 16:40 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
how much is "large AUD" ?

Nottingham 16:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
london cam 16:15 GMT

the standard system that I use for this pair would still need a couple of figures from here before o/b reached but I have been reading a report today which suggests that the cross is vulnerable to a heavy fall should the pair show signs of lost momentum...amongst various conventional (for want of a better word) arguments they point to recent IMM commitment figures which show sharp increases in cad shorts as well as a healthy increase in euro longs...while IMM volume is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, it has proven to be a good indicator nonetheless the report argues...as always you need to take it with a pinch, but food for thought if nothing else...gl gt

USA Biscuit Boy 16:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Bought large aud/usd at 0.6885. GL/GT

Sheffield SH 16:22 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 16:20 GMT May 17, 2004

Thanks Mark

Mtl JP 16:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
nh / latest M-3 shows $58.3 billion UP for wk ending may 3. y-t-d up $349 billion, in a ten trio economy.. that money, unless US = Japan, has to go somewhere.. slosh slosh

Minnesota Mark 16:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Sheffield SH 15:57 GMT May 17, 2004
Can anyone post AUDUSD low for the last hour pls?

.6879

london cam 16:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, if you're around I'd appreciatte your view on EURAUD. Been climbing nicely. probably too late to long so waiting for an opportunity to short it. Do you consider it anywhere near o/b yet, or has this baby further m/t upside potential?
thanks

Livingston nh 16:00 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I keep reading about high oil prices can cause recession - high oil prices force cutbacks - high oil prices are like a tax -- believe any of this at your own risk// for the US this can only cause inflation - the consequences of that are different if the Fed funds the inflation -- the US only pays higher oil prices if the Fed squeezes money supply -- others pay higher if the USD strengthens

Sheffield SH 15:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone post AUDUSD low for the last hour pls?

TIA.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:42 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Thank you CK I am here learning from everyone and getting better for it. One more thing to add as others might have a different concept of the break away number for eur/usd. To be safe you can also use the fibo 62% (1.2140-50) from the move 1.2390-95 to 1.1750-60 as a no return to the bottom for a while number too. Coincidentally the move for today stopped at the 50% fibo (1.2065-70) from the same move. I have commented earlier about this move and the fibo’s that pertaint to it. GT

USA Biscuit Boy 15:41 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Time to take profit on aud/usd short position. Cheers.

Dublin CK 15:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 14:35 GMT May 17, 2004

Omil - Ditto - thks for the posts.

Livingston nh 15:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip - do not underestimate the ability of the Fed to react - a 2% rate would not even approach a neutral level - inflation at 4% requires at least 4% Funds

hk ab nzd 0.65 15:09 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sp, just sent you some YIM. GT to you too :D

sgp sp 15:06 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
good evening ab, no mj today?
how abt usd/cad....

gt 2 u

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I am glad it helps you amc my system is a combination of fibo, support, resistance, T/L and ma’s acting as support or resistance. I also use a bit of gut feeling too sometimes. Indicators used can be many combinations but the idea is always the same when you go fishing you throw a small fish (what you are willing to loose) to catch a big fish (what you want to gain) that is called R/R very important in my system. You will probably not catch big fish all the time and every time you throw the line you might loose the little fish but when you do catch the big one it will make up for all the little ones you have lost that is what I mean when I say % is on my side. I don’t try to forecast the market I found that to be almost impossible for me. It makes up for good conversation but that is all. I simply let the market tell me were to throw the line. For example the 250 sma on the 4hr chart held up the eur/usd express for now that was one of the resistance but as I commented before the break away number is still around 1.2090-95 the T/L. It takes practice and time to get the numbers right because it all depends on were you draw the lines and perceive to be the tops and bottoms. These numbers will probably be different on other chart system because of different close price computations that is why I always say rough numbers. I hope that helps and as I always say you can use different systems and they will all work but the magic here is to be able to loose very little compared to your winnings all IMVHO. I will be back later as my chart system is not completely operational at the moment. GL GT

hk ab nzd 0.65 15:01 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf closed NY above 1.54 will be interesting!

HK [email protected] 15:01 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Roadside bomb containing sarin nerve agent explodes in Iraq
Monday May 17, 2004
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) A roadside bomb containing sarin nerve agent exploded near a U.S. military convoy, but there were no casualties, the U.S. military said Monday.

``The Iraqi Survey Group confirmed today that a 155-millimeter artillery round containing sarin nerve agent had been found,'' said Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, the chief military spokesman in Iraq. ``The round had been rigged as an IED (improvised explosive device) which was discovered by a U.S. force convoy.

``A detonation occurred before the IED could be rendered inoperable. This produced a very small dispersal of agent,'' he said.

In 1995, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo cult unleashed sarin gas in Tokyo's subways, killing 12 people and sickening thousands. In February of this year, Japanese courts convicted the cult's former leader, Shoko Asahara, and sentence him to be executed.

Developed in the mid-1930s by Nazi scientists, a single drop of sarin can cause quick, agonizing choking death. Small exposures can be treated with antidotes, if administered quickly.


(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)


Tokyo Jon 15:00 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, the following are the percentages for the daily movement.
from 22GMT it had a 67% chance of trading higher than the last high, 1.2098 had 0% chance of being seen followed by 1.1996 at 46%, 1.1946 at 74%, 1.1884 at 100%, 1.1810 at 63%. These numbers are based on probability. I will post tomorrows numbers around 0GMT
bfn gl & gt

Stockholm za 14:52 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

quito_valdez at yahoo >>>>> Take Time OUT !!!!!

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:50 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
NOT 5 min, I'm talking 5 -hour- chart here just as I stated. Big picture. Try the 5 hour or thereabouts. This is why I trade with a 1 or 2 hour chart yet view the 5 day and beyond...6 charts in all...to get the big picture.

Nottingham 14:49 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
euro...approaching 200 day sma...failure to hold may see rate dip to 1940 were demand expected...gl gt

hk ab nzd 0.65 14:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 14:42 GMT May 17, 2004
Why I closed my 1.1810 EUR/USD long for 1.2030 minutes ago:
1. on 5 day chart, double top formation in last 24hrs completed and descending nicely now for good short. 2nd top was less than 1st, usually means net down mvmt. past valley to come.




5 mins chart instead?

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:42 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Why I closed my 1.1810 EUR/USD long for 1.2030 minutes ago:
1. on 5 day chart, double top formation in last 24hrs completed and descending nicely now for good short. 2nd top was less than 1st, usually means net down mvmt. past valley to come.
2. A modified "head & shoulders" is forming the last part of the head, (head=the doubletop in this case) now (IMO)descending to the last shoulder (we'll have to see) from: 09:35 GMT 5/14 using 5 day chart. This is where the 1.17 boys might be happy. Meeee 2!

Saihat 14:42 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
maybe Closed AT 00.00 gmt

eur 1.2010
jpy 113.65

eurjpy 136.50

toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Tallin Viees , what do u think of euro now looks short of the target , but doubletopped

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
The comments were of course for the eur/usd pair.

ny amc 14:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
miami..omil.......I follow alot of your posts and find them very helpful..one question i have is what makes up your "system"

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I may have to adjust these numbers again because I still don’t have a sell signal but it is coming up soon. The rough numbers are 1.1950-55, 1.1915-20 and 1.1880-85 for now. I am still trying to get the system 100% operational but who cares about my problems lol. It was a nice ride on the eur express and I believe it is not over yet we will see in the near future. GL GT

verona cael 14:29 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Very quiet in here, without the Euro bears, they must all be asleep.

Well done nk & Zorro ;)

ny amc 14:23 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito...........nice trade buddy

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
closed EUR/USD (1.1810) for 1.2030, 220 pipsters. Shorting USD at this point..maybe too soon but that's life in check changing land.

Nottingham 14:11 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
s&p...has opportunity to carry out inverse shs (hourlies show this well), with market currently at base of second shoulder...of course, any failure to play the bullish pattern out will see kneejerk selling and 1067 would then be favourite for next reaction low...gl gt

LHR B747 14:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez 13:57 GMT: OK , your opinion/forecast noted with me.

I am looking forward to long DOW when it comes to 9.6K for 0.8-1K pips during JUN-JUL/04.

GT

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
..aside from all this, EUR/USD has got a really sweet trading range to take consistently 15 or so pips long and short...on the way. And remember, I stress: look also at 3 mo, 6 mo, 3 yr & 10 yr EUR/USD charts. Sure, 1.17 will be seen...follow our noses of course. Last post, I'm spamming again.

Dublin Flip 14:04 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 13:43 GMT May 17, 2004

There is a bit of difference with the rate hike cycle this time around. The rate hikes didn't force the stock markets higher. They were making all time highs and as such the rate hikes could work themselves through as amidst the over-riding "brand new high" optimism. From my GVI post....

Dublin Flip 19:37 GMT May 13, 2004
I posted comments about how comparing the expected behaviour rate hike cycle with earlier ones from the past twenty years was pretty stupid as each other time the stockmarket was marking all time highs and the economy was "ten foot tall and bulletproof". I am even more convinced of this after a bit of research.
Alan Greenspan has presided over three rate hike cycles. In 1989 the S+P had grown by 67.5% over the previous five years. By 1994 price huke cycle it had grown 66.5% over the five years and in 1999 it had grown a whopping 167% over the same period. In 2004 (note the five year deceptive pattern) the S+P capital change over the past five years will be most likely -26% (or even backdating it to include a ripper year -11%).

So to compare how he raised rates by three percent before is ridiculous. The economy may well not be in the same positionto handle anything more than a one percent slug. Given the amount of funds out there who are still 30/60% below their 1999 peak the capital gains most are sitting on is their homes. coupled with oil raging how long before the consumer get's "that sinking feeling".
I think it's painfully obvious the fed will be getting more bang for their monetary policy basis point this time around.
Forget the talk of 4% Fed funds. 2 is the new 4.

hk ab nzd 0.65 14:01 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
oilman, did u take partial profit? or just let the 1.2250 runs?

quito_valdez at yahoo 13:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
B747//
Where does Iraq's oil money go? Below are several links I just found about Iraq's oil econ and potential:

Click:

HERE

HERE

HERE &

HERE



I included a selection of pro UN/USA and anti UN/USA viewpoints. Google: search keywords/phrases: "Iraq oil where does the money go" and "Iraq oil account". Do a search yourself to see more.



Hong Kong Qindex 13:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
[email protected]

IST Sez 13:52 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Any one types jay's e-mail ?thnx

IST Sez 13:45 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thank you Mr.Qindex,
I will do it.

Gold Coast martin 13:44 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
QUITO....Take the geopolitical factors out of the market right now and what have you got?Euro at 117 levels...one swallow does not make a summer friend....good luck....

LHR B747 13:43 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 13:34 GMT: The conflict starts with what USA needs and what Mr. Bush needs for re-election.

History managed to show us that rate increase ALWAYS followed by raising markets, the fact that USA is "sitting" on the Iraqi income from oil is just another winning card in Mr. President's hand to bring oil prices down exactly at the right moment for his re-election campign.

Raising markets + falling oil prices + streong USD + "good" news from Iraq @ SEP-NOV-04 = re-election works.

IMHO & GT

Hong Kong Qindex 13:39 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
IST Sez 12:02 GMT - EUR/USD : The weekly quantized levels has been updated in my page. Send an e-mail to Jay and he will arrange you to see it free for the next 2 weeks. I guess EUR/USD will trade in the higher levels in the next few days.

quito_valdez at yahoo 13:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 12:40 GMT//

To positively target 1.24+ late summer would be ONLY with the use of graphs. Practicality dictates that with fed increase...not likely a 1.24+ but more than now. But rate increase or not, the USD fundamentally isn't in any better shape that it was 4 months ago with tripple deficit burdens and less demand on tsy notes per below post. Smear honey on crap and it's still crap. Right? I think the rate increase is pricing itself in as we KNOW they Mr. Fedspan will do this, so when it happens, no big deal..sure, mkt range increase will happen but I don't think -overall- a rate incr of .25% would have "mucho" impact. You'd have to nearly double..to 1.75% - 2.00% to have a sizable evaluation of USD. Remember USA does NOT want a high USD.

houston st 13:18 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Nottingham 13:07 GMT - who knows where we will be this time tomorrow? gl/gt.

Nottingham 13:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
houston st 13:04 GMT

april + may will tell the story but who knows where we will be by then...gl gt

Makassar Alimin 13:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Looks like at the moment geopolitical factor plays more role than economy data, but it is still pretty early in the week

houston st 13:04 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

net foreign buys of US tsy notes/bonds $61.5B in March, much larger than $37.0B in Feb...

Toronto Silverfox 13:02 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
tics 78.6 not as weak as expected

GENEVA FHR 13:02 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
US March capital flows 78.6 B$against 83.3 B Feb

houston st 13:02 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

net foreign buys of US securities $78.6B in March, down from a revised $83.3B in Feb..

Nottingham 12:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
March TIC data in a moment...may move market but April and May likely to be more influential...gl gt

Genoa nic 12:45 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon all

Economic release: the first of the regional manufacturing indices -- NY's Empire State index -- fell off to 30.2 in May from a lower revised 34.0 in April. The May decline came as the prices paid index was the only component to show a decline. May gains in new orders (36.6), shipments (42.3), employment, average workweek, order backlogs and prices received (17.5 reflects pricing power) are all consistent with a very strong manufacturing sector in New York and suggest a strong level for Philly later in the week and Chicago and the national ISM index released at the turn of the month. The index for the coming six months also showed a rise to 50.4.

Source: Briefing.com

LHR B747 12:40 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 12:35 GMT May 17: you mentioned that EUR/USD @ 1.24++ during JUL-AUG/04, do you beleive that this tatget is possible with a FED rates increase?



nyc fxdh 12:39 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
expectations 34.5

nyc fxdh 12:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
down from 36.1

nyc fxdh 12:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
30.21

Van jv 12:37 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Empire State Mfg Index May?

Belgrade Knez 12:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Anyone have data please.

TIA

quito_valdez at yahoo 12:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 & others// No matter who says what, geopoliticals & other news/data surprizes can only affect the charts a certain amount. That is to say the charts are almost preordained to "behave" in the historical manner. Elliot Wave theory is important here for overall trends, not dailies necessarily. 10yr 11yr or 12yr charts roughly repeat themselves, learned that in many yrs in stocks. So start with the big-big picture and create charts of half that, 1/4 that, 1/8 that etc. and general trends can be picked out easily.

houston st 12:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

econ news just out: NY Fed's Manufacturing survey slipped to 30.2 in May, from 34.03 reading in April, making the 13th straight month of positive readings..THe bank said Monday in its Empire State Manufacturing Survey that its general business conditions index continued to improve significantly..fwiw.

LHR B747 12:31 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez: a pleasure to have your opinion.

Maybe you know, who is running the accounts that hold the income from Iraqi oil?

Chambery FR JFB 12:27 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 12:24 GMT May 17, 2004

Thanks!! Have to go, bbl :-) Happy trades

quito_valdez at yahoo 12:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747// EUR/JPY will short nicely this morning. 1wk/3yr chart view - Long run: give it 1 or 2 weeks, will trend short for at least 1 month, likely longer.
USD/JPY about the same as above, working on what may be a nice double top right now. If 2nd peak is less than first peak, good short "weather". 5 hr 5 day chart tells me to see 112.70.

I work with 3 time frame charts at least (3 yr, 1 yr, 6 mo) looking at the big picture, as well as 1min/1hr or 1 min/2hr and 1min/6hr to trade with. I love charts.

Gen dk 12:24 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Stockholm za 12:24 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
JFB >>>
When we try to lock the gate with last week low
this is what happens...
As you can see we got stop at the 2070 gate
and need to stay above the 2020 to keep the
momentum on the up side.
the 2100 & 2150 gates are all key for the upside
at the moment. if we come back down and take out
the 1950 gate then we have a problem with
the up side. and will move down in a choppy manner..
watch your mp30min & the ema`s for more clues.....
You will have to go see the charts & i will ud the 3hr later.
Happy trades..

Chambery FR JFB 12:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:13 GMT May 17, 2004

Depends on what side of the door you stay... lol (sorry, couldn't resist :-)

For now, the Point of Control sits @1.1960, but it's very likely that a new one will establish in the 1.2025/30 area, and then oscillate around that value for a while... just imvho :-)

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:13 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ZA ~2020 is gate to sky or to censored? :)

LHR B747 12:13 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 12:07 GMT: I remember very well that you was right, your kisses leftg with you :)

What is your opinion/forecast for the EUR/JPY & USD/JPY?
Does seems to raise?

GT

quito_valdez at yahoo 12:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
B747// Good morning amigo. Remember our agreement? EUR/USD 1.24+ can be "visualized" on 6 mo chart after this and possibly another stair step in the general short term down movement occurs and that pair finally long trends up to peak. Maybe July-August. Meantime I longed at 1.1810, sittin' pretty. (not demo) Your 1.24+ would be welcome to all of us including USA exporters of grains, tech and military gadgetry.

Chambery FR JFB 12:03 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 11:35 GMT May 17, 2004
"Chambery FR JFB >>> You got Mail....... "

You sure..? Can't see it :-)

Have moved my s/l @1.1975, let's see... GL GT

IST Sez 12:02 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello Mr.Qindex,
My I ask your quintized levels for eur/usd and direction predicts?
thanks in advance the Guru.

Stockholm za 11:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Chambery FR JFB >>> You got Mail....... Happy trades......
ps :- [ ~12020 ] Gate = Key

GVI john 11:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2015…$/yen 113.45
DJIA -111 pts… 10-yr 4.73%, -5 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


Today's ommentary will be posted in the new GV reseach section

LHR B747 11:26 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 11:19 GMT: Please answer my question if you know, I need the accurate information to take a bet on the outcome of the US election.

B747 stands for B747...nothing special!

CT DB 11:19 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747,
why would you care?
B747? wtf is that?

Ldn 11:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
MADRID (AP)--Spanish police investigating the March 11 train bombings in Madrid have identified some 300 "potentially dangerous" Islamic extremists living in the country, a newspaper said Monday.Most of these extremists are part of dozens of dormant terrorist cells in the country, daily El Pais said, quoting unidentified police and intelligence sources. El Pais did not name any group or provide details of the suspects but said they were of more than 20 different nationalities.

LHR B747 11:14 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Maybe someone in this forum knows, to which account the incomes from Iraqi oil goes?

Many thanks in advance

CT DB 11:14 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
NY 11:06 GMT
LOL - perhaps the lads from lagos are underwriting it (Lagos Re)
www.scamorama.com

Chambery FR JFB 11:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 11:00 GMT May 17, 2004

Yes it does make it a little easier... Thanks :-)

NY 11:06 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 08:59 GMT May 17, 2004

Guaranteed with "official bonds" from the Nigerian government..

Tokyo Jon 11:00 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB, sorry it is misinterpreted, the percentage is the probability of the direction, so a 60% downward, means 6/10 times go down from this point if it vibrates at this level, I hope this makes it a little easier.

athens 10:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thank you all friends for the answers.
Good trading

Chambery FR JFB 10:41 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 09:59 GMT May 17, 2004

Morning... Just curious : why a 64% decrease in momentum @1.1810 will still target 1.1755 (lower target) while on the other side, a 60% decrease in momentum @1.2098 will target a lower target as well (1.2061)... Wouldn't it be logical to think a move up is probable from 1.1810? (although it's just for the beauty of it today, don't think we will see 1.1810 by tonight, but who knows... :-) TIA

Chambery FR JFB 10:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 10:22 GMT May 17, 2004

Morning all :-)

Za, if you don't mind, your (MP)comments are very welcome on Euro... Am long from 1.1800/15, and will hold them until the 1.1980/1.2010 barrier holds. Still no sell/reversal signal on my system, and none will occur in the next 3/4 hours, and need another attempt up before it can move down again. Your views very appreciated :-)

Happy trades to all!

LHR B747 10:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
A very good read!

http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=9&aid=16030

nyc sa 10:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
/Thnx Qindex ,eom.

QC WC 10:23 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
athens 10:06 GMT May 17, 2004
Not this week

Stockholm za 10:22 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

athens 10:06 GMT May 17, 2004
fwiw..... IF you is not the ORIGINAL Athens, I should Recommend that you ADD some initials to your identity...
Thank you and Happy trades ........

Hong Kong Qindex 10:13 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 09:34 GMT - GBP/JPY : I am bias on the downside.

sarasota jf 10:11 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ab i think your euryen target is about right

athens 10:06 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning to all. Today i s the eur/usd at 1.1964. Target is the 1.1880. do you think that is a realistic target?

Thank and good trading

Bandung Zink 10:01 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Ginta
salam kenal ya :)

Ldn 10:01 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Buba: Self-Supporting German Econ Upswing Not In Sight

Buba:German Govt Deficit Likely Around 3.9% Of GDP In

QC WC 09:50 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
SA, Usd/yen may drop but limited and think GBP will rise. GBP/Yen would depends on which moves more, otherwise nuetral.

Gen dk 09:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc sa 09:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Qindex could u plz give ur short term view on GBP/JPY ? thnx.

slv sam 09:32 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
$cad at 1.3760...starts to be promissing for my longer term target at 1.28!GT

ln 09:27 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 08:54 GMT. thnks. still think the trend is down but nice to make something the otherway for a change. i am tempted to short here with s/t 1.7450 reversing if this level breaks. but you say 1.7770 is important. will reconsider.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Ginta,
met kenal.
ya..right person if you ask co_z especially about GBP/usd.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:24 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
BC..

ANY m/t view about USD/CHF would be very intersting ..

nk





Tallinn viies 09:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
eurstg moved over inverse head and shoulders neckline.
if 0,6845 taken I expect it to move toward 0,7050/60. fwiw

london 09:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz forex trading is not suitable for the bleeding heart types, nice girls (or boys) finish last.
look how presistent & nice la S.O is in peddling his service. JIMVHO

Gen dk 09:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CT DB 09:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 09:03,
No denying his persistance and enthusiasm!
LOL

surabaya GINTA 09:04 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanx 4 ur adv. Mr.Coz!

Hong Kong Qindex 09:03 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
mumbai maninder 08:59 GMT - Spot Gold : The next target 388.8.

Dublin Flip 09:03 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Lagois I think you need a new marketing spiel. How about

"Stick em up. Take it nice and slow. Now empty your money into the sports bag. and no funny stuff"

what do you think ???? -LOL

mumbai maninder 08:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hi mr qindex
any views on gold pliz

CT DB 08:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
la S.O 08:54,
Rumour has it you turned a $50k account into $15k!
My advice to anyone considering this is to get "the requisite skills".

BTW, Do you gaurentee 80% on any size account and what backs this gaurentee?

FWIW
GL & GT

ICT ML 08:54 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ln 08:46 GMT ...earlier in Asia I was thinking 7700 was a good sell point if the signs were right...they aren't.....if you get past 7740 I think 7950 is realistic today......

ICT ML 08:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ab...I understand completely your feelings.......unfortunately, we as a species seem to be determined to speed up the process of our own extinction through gross acts of violence against each other.

odds are it will get much worse in the next several years...so reacting to horrible news as a trader will become a mandatory learned survival skill......sad world we live in.

That $Y trade I was looking to take at 113.50 is a bad idea right now...glad I busy buying swiss instead when it hit the level.

ln 08:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on cable today. s/t at 1.1615 now looking for 1.8000 but want to know if tech guys out there see the same. my trade is on gut feeling.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:44 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ML, please don't mind my last post.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:36 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ML, just a deep feeling on life.

I will see if this event can bring eur/jpy to hit the top of the big triangle pennant on weekly.

137-138 area.

ICT ML 08:28 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
well ab....that is fine and good, I very much respect your view....but would you prefer I take a huge loss in a portfolio because it is not "nice" to react to market moving news events and protect my clients $$$$$?

something to think about....that is why we have markets like this...to hedge risks of the "unknown" type......

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 08:24 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
JIMVHO, it's not nice to trade on tragedy.

Why there is need of these "bloody" mkt.....

slv sam 08:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:29 GMT May 14, 2004
imho $/y is ready for a pull back..108 level next week??!!GT

I still think so....

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 113.

Nottingham 08:04 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp...key zone 6814/17

Brisbane L 07:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks everyone , thought it was my PC

Ltn th 07:58 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
GOLD

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:58 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Bad day for my chart system to go down but I am riding the eur/usd for all it is worth. I hope you got your computer up and running.

ICT ML 07:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
well OMIL...I bot Swiss on the car bomb in Baghdad...so doing well

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:52 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
ML hope you are doing well I have the normal 10 pip spread on my platform at the moment for gbp/chf.

Nottingham 07:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
euro...resistance at 2040...if taken 2065/75...gl gt

Dublin Flip 07:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Yes mate has been having troubles last half hour (assuming GVI server)
it looks sorted now

melbourne farmacia 07:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L - yep

Brisbane L 07:48 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone having problems logging on GV today

london 07:48 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
market squeeze eur/usd bears on the left nutz

ICT ML 07:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
anyone else getting insane 15-20 pip spread on gbp-chf right now?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:43 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
One more post and I will shut it down for now. I did mention before that 1.2025-30 for eur/usd was a key level and would add more wood to the bull fire but I believe that if 1.2090-95 T/L and fibo break then the bottom has been set for another bull run to test these next levels I commented before (1.2015-25), 1.2190-1.2200, 1.2335-45, 1.2460-70 and 1.2640-50 IMHO. GL GT

quito_valdez at yahoo 07:21 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Good morning/day all. Sky News..Bagdad car bomb kills governing council leader.

BTW I see a lot of questions about EUR/USD again. Check the 6 month chart for this pair..we evidently are in another long trend (maybe.. the last) stairstep on a general overall downtrend. This step will turn around and short in a week. These steps, if observed provide juicy longs and shorts.

Tallinn viies 07:19 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:32 GMT - sorry mate, eurusd only currency I follow for spec reasons. no idea about goose

saloniko 2004 nk 07:18 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
1.2150..1.2250* Euro/usd i mean...


nk

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I have mentioned this before it is the fibo and that can also act as resistance we have one coming up on 1.2025-30 area. I cannot get my charts up yet but I wrote this last week FWIW. It was a long post so I will just put the fibos. GL GT
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:04 GMT May 11, 2004
Rough fibos have changed for now 1.1880-85, 1.1935-40, 1.1980-85, 1.2025-30 and 1.2090-95.

saloniko 2004 nk 07:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

will watch 1.2150..1.2250* B4 do anything stupid..

Have a nice day!

nk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:08 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
nk, but the white elephant might be on the other side as well.
GL and Good day.

saloniko 2004 nk 07:03 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning....


USD/CHF looks like a stone..and once go trough 1.2650 next target might be 1.25......

Thanks to White Big Elephant @ 1.31

nk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
When gold is still soaring, it's not good to short eur at the moment.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Ok I am partially up with my graphs. Here is a quick rundown on the eur/usd I have support at the moment where the resistance used to be 1.1940-50. Immediate resistance will be found around the 1.2000-10 and 1.2050-60 area for the moment. One thing that was talked about earlier and may cap off the eur/usd is the eur/jpy and eur/gbp they look top heavy for now and may drag down the eur/usd with them IMHO. GL GT

Nottingham 06:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR Pat 06:25 GMT

dow dollar is an elastic relationship with elasticity being highly variable; at times dollar trades as proxy, while others time almost exact opposite...ultimately, sustained dow weakness would serve to weaken the US currency over time...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:32 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
viies, let's see if dlr/cad still takes the lead or lag behind.

EUR Pat 06:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 06:13 GMT May 17, 2004.
Ok, thank you. Look at the Dow Jones future, it under 10 000 and fell a lot this morning.... I don't know what it means exactly but if the Us stock is sold, maybe this could add to the dollar weakness?

Tallinn viies 06:19 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!

I can see more upside for the euro today!
targets today are 1,2000 and next at 1,2075. fwiw

Nottingham 06:13 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR Pat 05:55 GMT

to begin with it may serve to weaken yen more than the dollar (although euro is another matter) but once the oil price really begins to take off, dollar yen should begin to reverse imo...gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 06:11 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai Hat 05:46 GMT - Good afternoon! EUR/USD : I guess it is still range bound.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 05:59 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
http://www.astrologer.ru/netforum/images/Jet/Eur.gif
Astrological forecast for EUR :) lol

EUR Pat 05:55 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
There is something unclear for me. It's about the petrol. The brent is more and more expensive. Should we consider it contributes to weaken the dollar? I mean , does it react like gold (which is valued in dollar as well...) thanx for your lights....GT/GL

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:53 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hm.. gold keeps soaring....

Mumbai Hat 05:46 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q.. Good day to you..What is your call on the Eur/Usd today pl?

LA, California HDA 05:32 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Does anybody know what the (NY Fed Manuf Survey) is and should I be worried about it? Long or short? Previous 36.05 and Forcast will be 34.00

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:32 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad will test daily ssma 10 soon.

Ina mr.co'z 05:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
yes .. ICT Hope your trading good too...,
Her Majesty now is ponder at the same time determine the step will where :-))...gl/gt..

ICT ML 05:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
need to change my $Y post earlier......if buy 113.50 keep tgt 115 +/- a few pips...if lucky enough to buy bounce off 113.00 this week, tgt 125 ;->...but keep stops tight. (this would be a test and hold of weekly-monthly down channel it broke out of)

ICT ML 04:57 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello Mr. Co'z...hope you are trading well. Been a roller coaster YTD for me so far.

Seeing a good chance to sell Her Majesty against the swiss again this week....looks like a weekly bear flag channel bottom will give out this week to me.

Ina mr.co'z 04:51 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
yes.. JMI...and seen in graph weekly, likely eur/usd will make formation of B doji star...imo !...

Chicago JMI 04:38 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Ina mr.co'z 04:33 GMT May 17, 2004
I think it's too obvious. I believe there are more USD bears to be shaken out before Euro resumes its long term up trend.

Ina mr.co'z 04:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
friends...what is your opinions with the theory "repeat it self " at graph of monthly eur/usd..?
eur/usd down from the level 1.1929 (05/31/03) to 1.0765 (09/30/03) = 1.164 pips , ...and 1.2925 ( 02/29/04) to 1.1764 ( 04/30/04) = 1.161 pips...thx !

hi ict ! :-)

Charlotte Stafilo 04:29 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thank byron for the tip eur$, i pickup some few pips

ICT ML 04:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thinkin' to buy a bit of $Y 113.50 bid if seen again for 115.. stop at 35...we'll see in a few minutes .

Miami OMIL 04:09 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 01:12 GMT May 17, 2004
Thanks for the kind words. I go were the market takes me and follow my systems commands. I like to think of it as playing the % on my favor as many times as possible. The position could of turned against me but I had plan B ready. You did not play it because you were not sure and that is good. When your system is not sure don't play it. There will be other times IMHO. I will continue to move stops every time resistance breaks until this move is over. I will be back later with more details on the eur/usd pair as of right now my charts are down but I will get them going again soon ( I hope ). GT

BC I hope you are doing well and thanks for the comments they allways help. GT

Charlotte Stafilo 04:03 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
eur$ is 1.964 a good sell entry? anybody

HK Byron 04:02 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Short EURJPY @ 136.15

Toronto sj 03:56 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
It looks like the EUR/USD down trend (since mid Feb) will broken soon.

Oakland Daimyo 03:50 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I've taken my lumps and now flat. Not gonna make a bad situation worse.

Ina mr.co'z 03:48 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Toronto sj 03:40 GMT May 17, 2004
..coz usd in overbought area...:-) g/l..

Wellington amac 03:48 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
The question should probably be, why has it been so strong?

nyc sa 03:47 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC , would appreciate ur view on $/CHF ,thnx

Toronto sj 03:40 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Any idea why USD is getting so weak?

houston st 03:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

shanghai bc 03:30 GMT - thanks for the update..still riding the eur/usd train in this latest assault to 1.20xx or better..still short usd/jpy..your opinion on this pair for the week? tia...gl/gt.

Oakland Daimyo 03:33 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: AUD/USD and EUR/USD: I've reversed trades. Will ride until failure. Looking recoup losses and to short again from better prices. Looks like USD sales not over yet. I view this current situation as temporary and have not lost focus of my med-terms cyclical moves.

shanghai bc 03:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

The real resistence may be around Eur/Usd 1.2050-1.2100 region..Then,this is still well within the region of 1.22-1.17 set by range play lovers..Fwiw..

Saihat 03:27 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
eur-maybe-

r-1.1972-1.2039
s-1.1911-1.1785

CAIRO AG 03:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Bisciut Boy// Hi, what is the possibility from yor own point of view, that aussie might break 0.6970 ??

Thanks & GL

Sydney bl 03:05 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
thanks Dr Qindex

Hong Kong Qindex 02:42 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 01:54 GMT - AUD/USD : This pair is very weak. I would prefer sell on rallies.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:41 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:11 GMT - Good morning!

st. pete islander 02:39 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Test

nyc sa 02:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
$/CHF looks like it is breaking down , might we see 1.27 again ?any views ?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:27 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
sp, good morning....

intereting.... US and UK leave Iraq quick?

maybe after robbing enough oil first.

ny amc 02:26 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
where do you think this eur/usd could go to???

houston st 02:17 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

houston st 02:16 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

headline @ drudgereport.com: PAPER: USA AND BRITAIN PLAN QUICK EXIT FROM IRAQ.

sgp sp 02:11 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Good ab, Dr Q,

Had closed half aud/usd longs from 6859 at fig friday and keeping the second half, moving my s/l progressively.

Am keeping an eye on gbp/jpy but atm, see no touch :)

g, & gt 2 u



Sydney bl 01:54 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex what's your view on AUD/USD thanks

USA Biscuit Boy 01:50 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Yes 4CAST mentioned on Friday a possible $2b USD to be offered this morning for repatriation purposes. But there is more than one way to buy yen for dollars so yen crosses may get crunched after majors get pumped up against the dollar.

Rivonia PipPirate 01:42 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 01:35 GMT Seem to remember you mentioning this last week???

USA Biscuit Boy 01:35 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
I believe most of the action so far is due to sales of dollaryen for coupon repatriation not a bomblast. Once these orders are filled dollar offers may be hard to come by. Just MO. GL, GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:34 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is going to vibrate around 113.87 with an expected magnitude of +/- 30 pips for the time being, i.e. 113.56 - 114.17.

USA Biscuit Boy 01:28 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Sold large aud/usd at 0.6930.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:26 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:23 GMT - Good morning!

houston st 01:25 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 01:20 GMT - yes, already have them on the radar..will keep my good eye on them...:) thanks.

Gen dk 01:24 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:23 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
qindex, fully concur.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:20 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
houston st 01:17 GMT - Keep an eye on EUR/JPY. I have a feeling that USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are going to put up a show.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:17 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Resistance is expected at 113.80.

houston st 01:17 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Q - I'm still holding eur/usd length..your thoughts please on this pair..tia.

Global-View 01:16 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
GVI 01:15 GMT May 17, 2004
Turkey bombs ahead of Blair visit. Mr Blair will visit Ankara on Monday (BBC)... LINK

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 01:15 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
watch eur/jpy......

Hong Kong Qindex 01:14 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The next trading range is 112.97 - 113.57.

Global-View GVI 01:12 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
GVI 01:12 GMT May 17, 2004
Dollar Falls Against Yen, Euro in Asia After Bombing in Turkey

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened against the yen and the euro in Asia after a bombing in Turkey.

OK SZ 01:12 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, that was a nice call friday on your euro long, too bad I missed it..It should be interesting to see if they can take out that resistance at 40/50..Keep up the good post:)

Gep, your a good man and a respected trader here, it shows what kind of man you are by accepting your wrong and moving on..I hope everyone here has a great week..

Hong Kong Qindex 01:12 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:11 GMT May 17, 2004
USD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 114.63 which is also the key quantized level. The daily cycle normal trading range is 113.24 - 115.56. The lower barrier is expected at 112.77 // 113.24 and the upper barrier is positioning at 115.56 // 116.03. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 112.30 - 112.77 // 113.24 - 113.70 - 114.17 - 114.63* - 115.10 - 115.56 // 116.03 - 116.50 ..


Hong Kong Qindex 00:27 GMT May 17, 2004
USD/JPY : The congested area of my daily cycle indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 113.57 - 114.63.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:07 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
GEP it takes a smart man to recognize his mistakes. Like you say everyone has a different style of playing. I for one will not argue with your style even though it is not mine. You have to play the style that you are most comfortable with and have proved to make money in the past. You help out a lot of people in this forum with good intentions and that is what counts in my book. I have said this before people should not follow other people blindly this forum is only for comparing and learning not to follow blindly IMVHO. Sorry for taking up more space then I am use to. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:49 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone hope everybody had a pleasant weekend. Just stop by to see what was going on. My eur/usd contra intraday long looks good for the moment I will raise stops to protect profit after the resistance 1.1900-10 is broken. Next resistance on the list is 1.1940-50 at the moment. I will raise stops again when that is broken IMHO. I will be back later. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 00:39 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
houston st 00:30 GMT - You are welcome.

houston st 00:30 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 00:28 GMT - right on the money so far Q...sold some 114.57 into the "fix-type" pre-market action..thanks for the headsup..gl/gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:28 GMT May 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:27 GMT May 17, 2004
USD/JPY : The congested area of my daily cycle indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 113.57 - 114.63.

 




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