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Forex Forum Archive for 05/18/2004

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hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 23:53 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy next station 127 to paint the big big pennant/contracting triangle?

houston st 23:44 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

technically, the usd/jpy is struggling to keep it's head up..looking slightly weaker heading into the Tokyo open..as volatile as the market has been we could make both new highs and lows tonight and end up right back at this level..I believe there are some upcoming holidays in France, Germany and other parts of Europe on thursday, which could make for a thinner market as well..it all points to choppy, volatile markets ahead..use stops and good trades.

houston st 23:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

ny amc 23:34 GMT - technically, I have a few reasons, but also you have a couple of days of BOJ monetary policy meetings, plus a light week of US econ news, which tends to put the $ in a tp mode, and it seems like they have run the $ up earlier than usual this week..nothing really scientific, but I'd rather sell the $ than own it at the moment..gl/gt.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 23:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Many funds buy ahead 1.1350....

ny amc 23:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
houston.........any reason why you think the dollar will be weak tonight ?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 23:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// after a failure + no big deal mj....

here the nzd brings profit.

aud/nzd should fly off first. Holding 2 positions 1.1415, 1.1400.

Let's see.

houston st 23:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

hello all...still riding the eur/usd train, although I've unloaded some cargo north of 1.2045 yesterday..have reloaded today on dips..would like to see it get back towards 1.2035/60 range by Thursday evening Asia open..also short usd/cad..looking for some $ weakness tonight otherwise will TP..good trades.

Dallas GEP 23:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
KL, good question, Well I am still short on it with some lots and I beleive we have seeen the top. Now whether of not it may long up again 100 pips or so, that could be debated .

London MJM 23:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai/bc // Good morning.. Where do you see the possible high and low of the USD/JPY in a timeframe of the next 7 months? Is 120 hi and 95 low possible? Appreciate yr comments.

LAX-LGB SNP 23:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
i was planning to buy EURUSD ahead of last week's 1.1880-1.1895 since yesterday but stuck my guns to GBPJPY instead. Now i doubt if i get filled @ that level since EURJPY has bounced off daily 5 sma and might gun for a double-top

KL KL 23:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, JON, OMIL...your view on Euraud....looks interesting to short or it is too obvious trap??

Dallas GEP 22:54 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Jon, Euro to me looks very heavy to me. I think we will see 1.1890 tonight but that system of yours is CORRECT most of the time. If We had GOOD housing data instead of mixed I earlier today I think euro would alreday be in the 1.18's.

Having said that I think a LONG from 1.1935 would stop @ 1.1915 would be worth a try with TP @ 1.1970

Montréal Taro 22:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
Nice to see you, You got mail

Gen dk 22:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI john 21:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1960…$/yen 114.30
DJIA 9,969, +62 pts NASDAQ 1,898, +21 pts
10-yr 4.74%, +5 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE TEXT ON GVI

mex sjs 20:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
am shorting usdchf here at 1.2830 stop 1.2880, and longed gbpusd from 1.7672 s/l=1.7600... looking for curent week's low & high...

Nottingham 20:54 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
road, the technical zone I posted yesterday still stands (1.75-1.76) and tomorrow this zone will convieniently fall in line with o/b levels too...however I'm bound to say that flows may still dominate despite the hunch being that unwinding in this particular area has subsided for now...that said, I expect traders will continue to sell into strength to the 1.75-1.76 zone with stops above the zone or above today's high depending on strategy they are tied to...gl gt

mex sjs 20:52 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
quito are you around, am in your site...need some info.

Melb mpfx 20:43 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 17:27 GMT May 18, 2004
LOL.... :)) gt to u

beijing road 19:49 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham :EUR/AUD moves like a rocket, any special O/B level plz? Thks.

Nottingham 18:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
re euraud...this one is as polarised/binary as they come...a close under 1.73 whenever it comes and it's adios amigos...close over 1.76 and oilman will get his final leg up courtesy of the hedge fund community, so if planning to short you may wish to consider stops above there...gl gt

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JHB SA// You ain't got Miss Universes walking around on your beaches amigo...LOL, if it's anything like Ecudorian beaches (mas LOL) it's a pig farm, medical waste instead of shells and unwashed porked neanderthals too cheap to buy a small Coke watching women they COULD NEVER EVER get within 10 meters of let alone.... (:/

prague viktor 18:31 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Oilman.goodevining I was lookining to the 1,67 but i hope we will see ur 1,65G/L and G/N

JHB SA 18:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito. Hey BOET, we have those marching around on the beaches in Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth.....AISH.. sommer EVERYWHERE !!! GL GT. Get your ZAR possie correct now & you & familly could get here for free!!!

st. pete islander 18:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Well, if that happens .... give me time to get there to watch or take pictures. LOL. gl to both. :o)

UAE Oil man 18:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Noted...
And no worries i can find a few camels and Homars(donkeys) around ..

Dublin CK 18:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 18:11 GMT May 18, 2004

Eur/Aud - if thats true by friday Oil man, i promise to fly to Dubai and wash your car.

Even your camel if you have one.

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JHB SA 18:01//

The heck with soccer in SA, we're going for Miss Universe in Quito Ecuador NOW. Humm baby. I like to watch long haired long legged players....and I'm not talking freak show footballistas either. ;^{>

JHB SA 18:16 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Yebo/yes...no problem....all ok!! GL GT.

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
The forthcoming news this week should see you with both longs and shorts in place for your given fav USD pair(s) if your platform allows it, placing opposing plays if you will, each with appropriate limits and stops to automatically take profit on whatever initial hype driven explosion the news may initiate in the mkt. Autopilot, no fuss no muss, just let it run for 50 pips then take your profit..no whip saw and no re-entry and go to lunch.

Any predictions on the news effects this week Knottingham? Your opinions are golden.

clonakilty glenn 18:13 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Yebo - mind if I ask Jay for your email?

UAE Oil man 18:13 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Oh and the fractal failure on top of that coming in at 1.7340

JHB SA 18:12 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Yebo/yes do trade the Z!!!

UAE Oil man 18:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Oh and We might have seen Euroaud last exhausting upside..last move up in a panic..usually the last of a move..

Next on the cards 1.7240=>1.7033=>1.6980=>1.6941 then
Watch for 1.65xx by friday.

clonakilty glenn 18:04 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Yebo
I'll be there mate, cheering on "ingerlund" as I was in Japan and will be in Germany.
Question for you: Do you trade ZAR?

UAE Oil man 18:04 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Well out of $yen 114.20..

But keeping my GBJPY 200.20 s/l entries..So don't you guys knock on my stops while i sleep ...I wanna hear that stuff flew while i slept in the morning ..

GN GT.

JHB SA 18:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP. Yebo from S Africa. The PIPRAIDERS are the dealmakers/brokers u trade thru!!! Amazing how stops JUST get taken !!! Anyway, u guys think about world cup football in SA, you are invited to contact me via Jay, & have a great time in SA in 2010 !!! Get a true SA experience. GL GT.

Rye, NY et 17:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 17:19 GMT May 18, 2004
But we need the eggs
Nottingham Daniel 17:18 GMT May 18, 2004
But we need the eggs

Boca Raton 17:31 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
The low FOR the Canadian was 1.3885 in case ANYONE was wondering.

Minnesota Mark 17:31 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Otherwise known in my book as "bad timing"

beijing road 17:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
I think most important point is "Fundamental Injustice Law of Nature" .

LA ARTOFYEN 17:27 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Beijing, thanks for that. So I guess that Sinus condition is nothing to sneeze at?

UAE Oil man 17:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
And you think that reading wether trends exists in the minds of mathematicians(I'm sure they can prove trends don't exists..like 1+1=0 or whatever..from a theoritical point of view.) bla bla bla and yada yada yada exists of some value??

beijing road 17:19 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hi,all,just read a interesting postings at elitetrade/com,how do you guys think abt this?
Arcsinus law: distinguishing trend from persistency of chance
At high school you could have learned statistics and probability but never heard about the Arc Sinus law because it was discovered by the statistician Levy only lately (even on search engine you would barely find a link). This law is different from more famous Laws from the same Levy which concerns no-mean and no-variance family of laws. Some statisticians have given to the Arc Sinus Law the metaphorical name of "Fundamental Injustice Law of Nature" - but leave the consequences to the Philosophes .
Why ? Because this law says for example that at a fair coin game between 2 players chance will have tendancy to ALWAYS favor CONSTANTLY the SAME PLAYER for a LONG TIME so that persistency of apparent trend of the fortune of this player is in fact totally due to chance since the two players here have no special advantage one above the other.

Some gurus have profited from that to show that some people could win at casino and stock market with only money management without specific knowledge of market (which is in this is case a soft word for martingale and pyramiding scheme). Yes some people could win but it doesn't change the fact that if they continue the game LONG TIME ENOUGH the chance will finally revert. That's why if you only count on chance and you make gain especially huge gains thanks to pyramiding the best decision is to STOP once you reach the fortune. If you make gain and have real knowledge of market's action you have more chance to escape ... this chance's law.

Some technical analysts even use this law to justify that trend exists in stock market whereas it cannot be used to justify the existence of trend from the statistical point of view and in a conference on Finance and Chaos Theory a Mathematician in the field has mocked precisely the abuse of that law to make a false justification by showing a chart from a technical analyst with a trendline and justifying - falsely - with arc sinus law.

P.S.: why is it called arc sinus law because the sinus is in the expression of the law but it is not important for the subject discussed here.

Nottingham Daniel 17:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
It seems that President Bush will nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to another term - Well this does not supprise me!

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:03 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Interesting that most traders lose money. I read that several times and not on this forum and not disagreeing but shaking my head wondering why. But fact is fact nonetheless. My eur/usd short at 1.2030 looking nice...half way there to 1.900 or so. What I figured would be the last part of a head 'n shoulders yesterday turned out to be a ski slope, nonetheless going my direction but slower than calculated. Lots of "reasons why for things" on this forum today, good posts! I don't gain much from just reading posts, I wanna know "why, daddy, why?" Brokers' tricks and gimicks are good to know too...ARE there any really good ones..what you click is actually what you get? I'm beginning to think not.

NYC CS 17:03 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
In OTC markets it's really a misnomer to call them brokers...broking connotes agency function whereas FX brokers are really principals. They fill you out of their inventory, i.e. their risk. They DO make money on average because they have clients (nearly) simultaneously lifting their offers and hitting their bids. They make the spread. Sometimes, they have to pay someone elses spread to do an offsetting transaction if their orders are imbalanced and that can cut into their margin income. On top of that, there is what they make or lose from pure directional risk. The analogy is a bookie taking bets.

SLC Al 17:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,
I know what you are talking about. I've experienced all those things when SPREADS become wider and you can't enter quickly.
If you know…Which broker is better?

Boca Raton 16:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Was the LOW Canadian 1.3886?

Dallas GEP 16:49 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GH, ONE of mine DOES. They are the contra party to every trade, I was told that by the trade desk. And that would make sense if MOST people lose money which is the case.

OUT FOR NOW

Newcastle GH 16:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Thanks for that addition! They were the other things I forgot, after all we are 2:45 here in Oz! If you think your broker, platform is making money- sorry it is not so! I have experienced all those things! They don't make money tht way!

Gen dk 16:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Newcastle GH 16:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks SZ. Just trying to give a perspective that might help some people think that it is the easy way to riches! I'll say goodnight for now!

Dallas GEP 16:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GH's comments are RIGHT on. PIP raiding is NOT looked on favaorably by some platforms providers and they make it almost impossible to do at times ESPECIALLY if THEY are the ones holding on to the OTHER side of your trade (they are the contra party in other words). It's alot like counting cards in Blackjack. I can do it and it's TECHNICALLY not illegal but if you are blatant about it the casinos can ban you from playing.
The way most platform providers allow for a pip raider is that he is put on auto-execution and at times of high volatility the SPREADS become wider.

Your platform has to allow you to very quickly exit and enter possies and at LEAST half of them are NOT quick enough, PLUS YOU as keyboarder have to be quick enough. MOST pip raiders lookk for 5-8 pip gains on LARGE amounts. So PIP raiding can be HIGHLY profitable but very few can do it successfully.

Wisconsin tim 16:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
1.3885

Boca Raton 16:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Does ANYONE have the LOW USD/Cad?

OK SZ 16:31 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GH, well put

Newcastle GH 16:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Some comments about pip raiding. You might call it pip raiding here or scalping, or short term trading or whatever! I have done it with stocks, futures, warrants, options etc for 30 years. I have made lots of money doing it and it suits my personality. To give you a dollar perspective I have traded my personal account with stocks( and this is the hardest and unleveraged) up to $750K in and out 10-30 times a day. Often $750K per trade, same stock, 1-5 minutes in the market and a good profit! 20 times in one day- same thing! The point I would like to make is that it really can be done and done very successfully but it is very hard and it takes all the skill that I admire from the great analysts I know here but the time frame is different! What it is not, is shooting from the hip! That's what most beginners do!
Sorry for the long post but people think it either is stupid or just luck! It is not - it is the same as any other way of trading! Personally, I advise against it!

Nottingham 16:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin tim, today has been a day for frontrunners

saloniko 2004 nk 16:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

Said to an old frnd today to Buy Euro around 1.1750-1.1650 for 1.3888


Have a nice Evening..

nk



Wisconsin tim 16:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
looks like EUR/USD will end up being an inside day trade the breaks tomorrow?

if followed this on Monday would of had nice gainer

houston st 16:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

eur/usd still bouncing off of 200 dma around 1.1955.

Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
YEP Tim, in fact in some trading systems the "rules" state you should take profit on HALF your lots when 30 pips UP and THEN move stop to breakeven on the second half of the lots to see if you can get a longer run.

Having said that THIS will work best when ccy's are NOT range trading and there is a possibility of a major break.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB do you have messenger?

Stockholm za 16:06 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 16:01........ lol

nyc jk 16:05 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
now you have it , tim.

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Raton, different timeframes. If you expected for instance a 30-50 pip long on a ccy but it was a contra trade and you already had shorts on another account and the overall trend LONGER term was short, you might want to stay the course in that one account with the existing short

Nottingham 16:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 15:44 GMT

no reason why you can't do another 27 +ves...not all systems have a win loss ratio...some fixed income options systems are 100%...gl gt

Wisconsin tim 16:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nm ... i see it now, just sell half the position and set s/l at 1.1980

Gen dk 16:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 16:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 16:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 16:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chambery FR JFB 16:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 15:57 GMT May 18, 2004

Thank you... So you know NOT to follow my next entry :-)

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
And while we are at it, many times we talk about putting a stop at BREAKEVEN once we are up on the trade. BUt remember if you have a good initial entry you will want to add the spread back to the stop because otherwise you have to pay the spread again to get back in the SAME position you came out of.

For example if you are SHORT on USD/CAD from 1.4000 (an excellent level) and you get up 20 pips and want to put a stop at breakeven, I suggest you put it at least @ 1.4005 if you have a 5 pip spread although TECHNICALLY if you stop out it will cost you the 5 pips.

Boca Raton 16:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,

Why would you take different positions in different accounts? How can you keep your reporting straight?

Wisconsin tim 16:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
I don't see a problem with this (never done it but maybe some of the more enlightened will help me out)

if you sell 2 @ 1.1970 and you get to 1.1950
you don't want to tp because might have more to run (1.1930) but at the same time you don't want a winning position to become a dud.

so buy 1 @ 1.1950 ... you will exit these 2 positions at the same time or close to i assume
so you are giving up 10 pips for every 20 pip move down

In effect you are locking in a 10 pip profit at 1.1980 which would be a 10 pip loss without it if you just put a s/l at that figure

nyc jk 16:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry if I have stated things a bit harshly b747, it's just that in doing things that way a ) you don't have any net position is the bottom line and b) you are needlessly adding to your transactions costs. I guess I'm just pointing out there are better ways to do things. if you are making 34 pips a day or whatever that's great, but it is not because of the "hedging" it is because you are picking good spots to buy and sell, and if you picked the same good spots to buy and sell without "hedging" you would be earning an extra 3 pips a day. I think if you analysed your previous trades in that mindset, you would see what I mean.

OK SZ 15:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB, that is one heck of a streak. congrats to you. gl, gt

Gen dk 15:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:55 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Nice codes their JFB sort of like a spy movie. Now I have to decode on the other side LOL. I will see if my decoder works and by the way don’t go putting a jinks on your streak like that LOL. GT

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
If you look at the last couple of days RE: hedgeing talk, you will see why this DOESN'T work. I fully admit to being brainless the other dat when I took both a EUR/GBP short from 1.6950 and 1.6955 and a GBP short. I made money on the pound short @ +38 pips BUT I have had to wait until today to get near BE on my eur/gbp shorts IMAGINE that!!!!

Now I DO have multiple accounts and can take opposite possies on different accounts but NOT on the same account nor would I want to. CS and JK explained this very thoroughly the other day here on GV. Search the ARCHIVE.

LHR B747 15:52 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:50 GMT:sure, it is lot of money - but being a good customer have some advantages that you cannot value in dollars.

Minnesota Mark 15:51 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:29 GMT May 18, 2004
in my system clear for buy gold more here to get minimal 388 and objective 407

Ah Raden Mas, again we are on the opposite ends of the spectrum.. This morning at the US open I dumped all my gold mining stocks and bought puts on the XAU and a load of calls on the Yen.

nyc jk 15:50 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ok so 3 pips, basically you are adding 1 extra in and out trade to take this hedged position versus just doing a long or short trade, meaning paying 3 pips in spread extra. doesn't sound like much on an individual deal, but say you did this every day, you are taking about 6% off you annual return, not an insignificant amount of money........

LHR B747 15:46 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:44 : 3pips (at the moment)

Gold Coast martin 15:46 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
chamberry..IF you have the record of qantas you would be able to retire comfortably..bon chance,,,,

Chambery FR JFB 15:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:37 GMT May 18, 2004

Try fxbrg, am an aoler :-)

Chambery FR JFB 15:44 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 15:35 GMT May 18, 2004

Thx..; I am in a situation where probabilities run against me : my last 27 trades were positive... It's like flying with Qantas : they never had a crash, meaning that they've never been that close to their first... it becomes more and more probable than my next trade will go and stay in the red... may get retired soon, finally lol :-)

nyc jk 15:44 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
b747, how many pips is the bid/ask spread on your platform for EUR?

LHR B747 15:43 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD @ 1.1960 for 15pips (closed @ 1.1975)
Short EUR/USD @ 1.1970 for 40pips (closed @ 1.1971)

Bottom line: 34pips for the day, I am happy and also the market maker - I hope that also tomorrow will bring the same.

By the way, most important for me is that the profit is tax-free....until my 25th birthday I had to work more than four months for I made today only.

Center, not losing the center is all about in this trading

sarasota jf 15:39 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
jk - u dont have to worry if he is on autoexecution you know what that means - obv not thriving - till tom gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB I am still waiting for a reply I will try again.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:37 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Islander that sounds good to me. ;-)

Stockholm za 15:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB... It`s all good ..
Always wait for YOUR set up to trigger your entry....
Happy trades to you .......

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
You are right ZA the pip raiding is not meant for everybody including me that is why I do not pip raid. My comments were about the pure speculation of today’s possible small range that is all. Sorry if you misunderstood my comments. GL GT ;-)

Makassar Alimin 15:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
euro looks heavy, but i would not bet a house on it yet

Chambery FR JFB 15:31 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:11 GMT May 18, 2004

Hi Omil, didn't hear of you today... No pb with jay, I hope :-)

Hi Za, Happy trades :-)

Am gonna check the pool (as there are no beaches here, only mountains :-), Euro still stands in a no man's land on my system...


I'll be back later, take care :-)

nyc jk 15:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
lol viies.

no B747, I have only been doing this for 13 years, I have never seen a stormy session. whatever, you guys just keep on doing your "hedging", I suppose it at keeps the platform operators' deal volume and profits higher. cheers

NY 15:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 15:02 GMT May 18, 2004
Long EUR/USD @ 1.1960 for 15pips
Short EUR/USD @ 1.1970 for 40pips


Scenario 1 euro goes to 1.1930 t/p euro finishes at 1.1850 you're loosing 1.1960-1.1850.

Scenario 2 euro goes to 1.1975 you take t/p, euro finishes at 1.2050

again you are loosing...........

Boca Raton 15:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ln 15:24 GMT May 18, 2004

The crack pipe has to be getting hot. Best set it down.

LHR B747 15:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:20 GMT: It looks like you never went through a real stormy session, bottom line of winning 30pips per day is a great thing (for me and many more hedgers) if you play with the right amount of lots.


Tallinn viies 15:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ln 15:24 GMT - we need your money mate. keep shooting

nyc jk 15:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
but you don't have both positions ln think about it, in essence all you are doing is having an entry order either way. this "hedging" is the most ridiculous thing I have heard here, you would get laughed out of any professional dealing institution.

Gaza Ibiza 15:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ln so lets u are short eur at 1.1950 and long at 1.1951....and euro goes to 1.25.....how do you make money? after squaring both positions?

st. pete islander 15:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OMIL .... Good idea! Go check out the beaches and the view and maybe even a boat yard or two ... just for fun. Does ya good! Will not surprise me to go all day without hitting the orders placed. gt

Stockholm za 15:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL… intra-day pip raiding can be very dangerous to your trading health and R/R..
Don’t get carried away ..
Eg :- went S yesterday on 1,2035 & still holding … that is why I do not see your range… lol
Happy trades to you…

athens KT 15:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Friends. As i said yesterday morning i have s eurusd at 1.1970. Target is 1.1880. I hope that will be near soon.

Good trading to all.

ln 15:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:20 GMT. we are not in a bank here. trading via a lot of platforms and auto execution means that you can have both positions with a view to playing a big breakout. i do this everytime there is employment data in states and it gives me more than moneys worth.

nyc jk 15:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
FX Math 101

Long X CCY units + Short X CCY units = SQUARE POSITION

A trainee on the spot desk of any bank learns this the first day on the job, you should too.

LHR B747 15:17 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
NY 15:15 GMT: Finally, more winning pips than losing pips is what we all are after - right?

NY 15:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 15:02 GMT May 18, 2004
Long EUR/USD @ 1.1960 for 15pips
Short EUR/USD @ 1.1970 for 40pips


This forum is full of "hedgers" .............

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Well ZA that sounds good but I don’t think it is going to happen today and that is what I was talking about. I should take the day off and get some outside air for a change LOL. GT

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin.
based on RSI-14 and Momentum-14.
also sell more usd/jpy.. my prediction go to 110.65

Stockholm za 15:08 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL… We all have different ways, timeframe and methods of looking at ranges.
And often times is these intra day market noise that gets us out-focus and confuse as to our market out look ..
Eg: - I am looking at one of my charts range at the moment –
1,223x -top
1,191x -pivot
1,159x- bottom
We all make our choices….
Happy trades to you…..

Dallas GEP 15:06 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
PIP Value gbp/jpy around 8.75

Dallas GEP 15:04 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP buyers are keeping usd bear hopes alive across the board but something will give today for sure.

Boca Raton 15:03 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP. How much is a pip worth in GBP/JPY?

LHR B747 15:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD @ 1.1960 for 15pips
Short EUR/USD @ 1.1970 for 40pips


GT all

Dallas GEP 15:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
PLEASE note that CROSSES tho are MORE difficult to trade and especially gbp/jpy can be hazardous to your equity

Ldn pm 15:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
If 1.1950 gives way see 1.1880 thereafter but 1.1950 looks solid at the moment and might see a short-squeeze first towards 1.1985/90 first - IMHO

Nottingham 14:59 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
re euro...demand expected at 1935/45...gl gt

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AMC. 1.1910 IMO

hong kong nt 14:54 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- USD/CAD inverse head and shoulder, sees 1.43, entry 1.385. fwiw...

ny amc 14:53 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
if 1.1950 gives on eur/usd where do you guys see the next major support ? thanks

ln 14:52 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
only way to make money is to take a view on big move and play it. mkt undecided about being long or short dollar here so potential is for some very big moves. i still think long dollar until weds end and then go short dollar. fwiw

Dallas GEP 14:46 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Eur/cad is pulling usd/cad down with it presently.

Dallas GEP 14:44 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
When the MAJORS are not ranging much; MUCH more money can me made on the crosses. LOOK at Eur/Cad, eur/Aud, an the YEN crosses.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ZA I am looking at a possible 1.1900-20 if the 1.1950 support is taken through 1.2000-30 range and that is my fear for the day. In that kind of range it is tough to trade on IMO.

hong kong nt 14:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- no change on my ST trade...

ny amc 14:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
rumors that they have 4 people in custody regarding the killing of nick berg

Stockholm za 14:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

Miami OMIL.... What range are you talking about ?.. tia.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:29 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
in my system clear for buy gold more here to get minimal 388 and objective 407

Gold Coast martin 14:29 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
SOLO RADEN...what do u base your AUD reversal you today on?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:25 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
seen reversal pattern for aud/usd to get 0.7260 ..start from today.
not too brave if thinking for action buy .

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
my view aud/usd when at 0.6865
full confidence now buy aud/usd for target 0.6970 with stp at 0.6785.
more !! :-)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:21 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello raden hope you are well these days.

UAE oil man 14:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
stops to entry now on both $yen 113.6 and gbpjpy 200.20.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
I hear you ZA but this could be a small range on eur/usd movement. Just enough to get the bones left LOL.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
HELLO FRIENDS..

Isle of Wight DHE 14:17 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
cable bounced off hourly 200 sma fwiw - it is normally a strong barrier but I feel it wont hold today - does anyone else have any strong opinion against this view? Thanks...

hk ooozmeeh 14:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
if 1.1950 will be broken, it will be a dollar move
accross-the-board, fwiw...

Stockholm za 14:13 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw ...
€/$ < 1,1985 = neg. flow...

hk ooozmeeh 14:10 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
EURO 1.1950 will give way pretty soon.....glgt

Dallas GEP 13:59 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Longed USD/CAD @ 1.3930, stop @ 1.3910

Boca Raton 13:58 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Dallas GEP. Now I can trade with confidence. I needed that.

Dallas GEP 13:55 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
CABLE controlling market NOW

Mtl JP 13:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
amc 13:23 / glad of it. try again 1.3950 still support

Dallas GEP 13:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Well it probably is irrelevant now because I probably missed the usd/cad short but 1.4016 allows for a minor run thru of 1.4000 which is strong resistance on USD/CAD. I saw 1.4001 and 1.4004 print on two diffrent platforms and 1.4016 is ABOVE both of those. SHOULD have taken it at 1.3990 instead DAMMITTT

ny amc 13:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
mtl.jp>>>> thanks for the $cad call before. I went along with you for a quick ride. Thanks

FL MC 13:22 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, what is the significance of a 4016 stop? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
I really did not see any but I don’t put to much importance on the rumors. My fear for now is that we will be in a tight range and that is not good for me. I have a plan to sell eur/usd under the support of 1.1950 with rumors or without.

Dallas GEP 13:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OK I am doing a 1.3995 SELL on USD/CAD with @ 1.4016 stop IF SEEN

Boca Raton 13:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL, Do the rumors have stop loss orders too? I hear the rumors are pretty big. That's just what I heard.

OK SZ 13:12 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
looks like then we will be in a tight NY range today..

Dallas GEP 13:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AB, not sure about option barrier 1.4001 has already printed

Gen dk 13:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Rumors have offers around 1.2020 and bids at 1.1950-40.

Nottingham 13:08 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 12:49 GMT

creatively titled report "everybody knows" from just about my favorite source for oddball research states that OPEC line on oil is just as fake as US administration policy on dollar...official line is spouted at every possible opportunity by Snow and co but it's the worst kept secret that they have no problem with the benefits a weaker dollar brings and are happy to manage the decline...OPEC's true line now slowly becoming an open secret it is said...gl gt

OK SZ 13:05 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
I am also hearing of a 120 euro option..anyone know of this?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 13:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad 1.4 option holder?

Hong Kong Qindex 13:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 10:27 GMT - It is very likely.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:58 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nt, what do u think about your eur/jpy long now? after OPEC idea?

Dallas GEP 12:51 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
USD CAD is at MAGIC 1.4000 line. I could see it long even to 1.4020 BEFORE possible reversal

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:50 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
gep, small tyr 6024 short nzd. Wish us luck.

LHR B747 12:49 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OPEC asks for range of USD 22-28 per barrel.

Production increase (official, in addition to the unofficial) of 1.5M barrels per day will be the outcome of this meeting.

Happy YEN longing


GT

Dallas GEP 12:48 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OK EURO 1.1950 will need to break, probably will take some time but test of 1.1760 before week's end is PROBABLE IMO

Closed some Eur/GBP shorts from .6780 a little prematurely at .6783. Still have 6750 and 6755 shorts on that one from last week.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:47 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have an intraday sell signal for eur/usd coming up if the support 1.1950 is taken out in the next hour. GL GT

LHR B747 12:43 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 12:42 GMT: will you (also) attend the meeting in the Okura hotel?

Nottingham 12:42 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
euro...support seen 1935/45

UAE Oil man 12:42 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Here we go.

LHR B747 12:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:40 GMT: my dear, in Holland people used to "blow" grass and not human :)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
B747... Blow OPEC then oil supply out of control?.....

LHR B747 12:39 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OPEC will meet @ 22/MAY/2004 in Amsterdam; let's hope their next steps will not be under influence of some staff legal only in Holland :)

Or maybe it is not such a bad idea to let them blow first?


hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:37 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, thanks!
but chart wise, seems it's just too clear to "tell" a long trade on it.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:36 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
add 1 more at 1.14

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Tough range for eur/usd and not much reaction to the housing data which was a bit low 1.969m but permits are still up so looks like we will be in for a range for a bit longer IMHO.

dc fxq 12:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
U.S. APRIL HOUSING STARTS OFF 2.1% TO 1.97 MILLION
U.S. APRIL BUILDING PERMITS UP 1.2% TO 2.0 MILLION
U.S. APRIL HOUSING STARTS IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

Nottingham 12:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ab, re audnzd...good demand expected from 1365 down to 1330...gl gt

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
STARTS down, PERMITS UP. Mixed results. SHould be NO EFFECT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
in case if that happens, I will prefer long rather short and looking for my handle above ^^^^

Belgrade Knez 12:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

Anyone have data please?
TIA

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, it hurt me last Fri. Just leave it dun want to feel the pain twice.

Indeed, it has a nice chance to make a key day reversal now let's see those 4hr t/l can bound it or not.

Dallas GEP 12:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AB, how about a NZD.USD shhort That looks better to me that AUD/NZD long????

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
gold 378.05

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 12:12 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy could have bottomed out if no more vigorous move during NY the doji is v. apparent in daily.

GVI john 11:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1995…$/yen 113.55
DJIA +29 pts… 10-yr 4.71%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE

SEE GVI for TEXT

Stockholm za 11:43 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

fwiw.... DPUD @ 526 Happy trades......

Gen dk 11:42 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:36 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
it was scary 10 mins ago.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nt... funny! How's today?

Look like your eur/jpy is now safe.

hong kong nt 11:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- with your talent on AUD/NZD, RBA and RBNZ must welcome you on board always...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
got aud/znd long 1.1415.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
.6048 nzd 4hrs t/l resistance.

Gen dk 11:10 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
come on aud/nzd.....1.1415.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
come on aud/nzd.....1.1415.

Gen dk 11:06 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 10:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko 2004 nk 10:54 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:45 GMT May 18, 2004

And above..

As for USD/CAD is overbought..and better wait imo

Have to Go rest..

nk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:48 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nk, cad/jpy is on the table... waiting for our take.
want to send it under 80 or rebounds will control this beasty dlr/cad.

But I respect oilman 1.42 target.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nk, shouldn't it be dlr/chf 1.298?

UAE Oil man 10:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Long 200.20 GBPJPY ...205 t/p.
Long $yen 113.60 117.80 t/p.

hong kong nt 10:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hope EUR/JPY 135.8 may mark the low for today...

Gen dk 10:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko 2004 nk 10:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

What about trio ...Euro 1.1988 ,USD/CAD..1.3980,USD/CHF*1.28*!!..

U see something intersting here?

nk

Brisbane L 10:27 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex, hi do you see Aussie near the low again this week thanks

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:19 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nk, nice to read your dlr/cad view and in fact, am planning to short it for my family at 1.41 above. if 1.4298 holds.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
IST Sez 10:13 GMT May 18, 2004 : The odds are good.

saloniko 2004 nk 10:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

ok..Might u are right but i said what i think..

nk

IST Sez 10:13 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Mr.Qindex,
regarding your usd/jpy post,
can we say that eur/jpy short for below 130 in the near term?
thnk u very much for your reply..

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:13 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad 100 wma is now coincide the interesting 1.4298 resistance.

hong kong nt 10:12 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY -- buy at 135.8...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:11 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
just like aud/jpy is now rushing for the completion at 74 (hopefully).

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:10 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nk, one reason to shoot above 1.4250 is the complete liquidation of cad/jpy..... which is still on the table.

Gen dk 10:07 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:06 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
sp, aud/nzd should have bottomed. and now, will place order to add to my original long at 1.1430.

may try 1.1415 for tonight.

Gen dk 10:05 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 09:58 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GA TJ 09:51 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
For all you Candle Stick traders the USDJPY 60 min chart appears like it may reject a Morning Star. My experience with major reversal signal failures is that these are just as strong a signal. If 113.60 falls there might be some nice movement to the downside.

Hong Kong fong 09:48 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk thanks, just add more down at 1.2772. it's fun, up 30 pip already.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong fong 09:35 GMT May 18, 2004


Im not the one who is expert here ...give those advice..but place a stop above and go have funn..

GL
nk

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:13 GMT May 18, 2004
USD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is positioning at 114.68. The lower barrier is expected at 113.13 // 113.44 and the upper barrier is located at 114.68 // 114.99. The market rhythm of my daily cycle is represented by 31 pips. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 111.90 ... 112.52 ... 113.13 // 113.44 - 113.75 - 114.06 - 114.37 - 114.68 // 114.99 ... 115.61 ...

Nottingham Daniel 09:37 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:21 GMT May 18, 2004

Many Thanks Dr Q - I came out of my Gold short last week with a health profit and went long late Friday - I do feel that we may see $350 at some point but for now I am looking north !

saloniko 2004 nk 09:36 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:29 GMT May 18, 2004

Tough..

I think will be Sell sell sell...
1.4180 max 1.4250 will change view in my mind only..


nk

Hong Kong fong 09:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk I am long USD/CHF from 1.2704, should I buy more now? tia

saloniko 2004 nk 09:29 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ln 09:25 GMT May 18, 2004

Close Euro longs..and wait ReBuy Lower..

BOD right now USD/CHF for target above 1.30+

nk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:29 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
nk, this dlr/cad might want to have a taste above 1.4 first.

Do u see it can flirt very long above this 1.4 line?

Good trade.

ln 09:25 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 09:20 GMT. does that mean you sell and rebuy at that level?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:21 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 08:59 GMT - Spot Gold : It has a potential to move above $390 later this month. We have to wait and see how it goes for the next few sessions.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:20 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro is a Buy below 1.18-1.17+


IMHO
nk

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:16 GMT May 18, 2004
AUD/USD : The congested area of my weekly cycle indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.6805 - 0.7020 and the mid-point reference is 0.6913. The key quantised level of my weekly cycle is located at 0.6858. AUD/USD was able to find support around 0.68 in Asian session. It is likely that the market will try to tackle the upper trading range of 0.6967 - 0.7020 later this week.

AUD/USD (Daily Cycle) : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.6785 // 0.6809 and the upper barrier is expected at 0.6884 // 0.6909. The odds are in favour of taking long position.


... 0.6760 - 0.6785 // 0.6809 - 0.6834 - 0.6859 - 0.6884 // 0.6909 - 0.6933 ... 0.6958 ... 0.7057 ... 0.7107 ...

ln 09:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
at 1.1980 should i buy or should i sell? my gut says sell with s/t at 1.2040. but you guys here are calling it way above what i would consider as 'normal'. am short with that stop now so wait and see.

PAR 09:08 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Germany again reaffirms itself as the weakest economy in Europ.

Brisbane L 09:02 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
German May ZEW Index Below Forecasts Of 50.0


German May ZEW Econ Expectations Index 46.4 Vs 49.7 Apr

Gen dk 09:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham Daniel 08:59 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:03 GMT May 17, 2004
- Spot Gold : The next target 388.8.

Dr Q - Do you still hold this opinion !!!!

PAR 08:57 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
German ZEW expected to show sharp drop due to rising oil prices,rising unemployment,rising interest rates and rising taxes.

saloniko 2004 nk 08:49 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning...

USD/CHF ...Might is time for a good bounch as i see it today..

A BOD opportunity is likely to me again around..4... 1.32+

BUT same on Euro..

Have a nice day..
nk



Bahrain KZ 08:37 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trade with these if you liek to get away from the screen..cheers
Currecny Short Long Short Cover Long Cover
EURUSD 1.2131 1.1801 1.2096 1.1836
USDJPY 115.18 112.35 114.87 112.64
GBPUSD 1.7873 1.7449 1.7829 1.7496
USDCHF 1.3052 1.2657 1.3010 1.2697
EURCHF 1.5476 1.5288 1.5457 1.5307
AUDUSD 0.7039 0.6822 0.7019 0.6849
USDCAD 1.4040 1.3684 1.4002 1.3720
NZDUSD 0.6146 0.5944 0.6127 0.5969
EURGBP 0.6842 0.6715 0.6827 0.6727
EURJPY 138.03 134.18 137.63 134.60
GBPJPY 203.72 197.87 203.15 198.47
CHFJPY 89.74 87.19 89.46 87.47
GBPCHF 2.2929 2.2433 2.2882 2.2489
EURAUD 1.7460 1.7035 1.7409 1.7073
EURCAD 1.6801 1.6384 1.6757 1.6425
AUDCAD 0.9746 0.9482 0.9721 0.9511
AUDJPY 80.0676 77.7120 79.8417 77.9750

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
We are under attack by commercials now LOL.

PAR 08:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
UK inflation will be much higher than expected leading to higher UK interest rates.

sydney fg 08:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
g'day all.
fwiw, oz, euro and dollar yen all look like they are no man's land to me. Will consider playing the ranges if the extremities are seen. Maybe buy some dollar yen 112.50 area, sell some aud 6940-50, sell some euro 1.2100 area. Other than that, I'm fresh out of ideas.
good luck all.

Ldn 08:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Upcoming 1.1700-1.2200 DNT Expiry

LAX-LGB SNP 07:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
back after a slightly long weekend

after Friday's closing levels, i see a missed gbp$ long @ 1.7595 & would-be aud$ long @ 0.6909 (stopped @ entry)

however eur$ provides decent longing opportunities as long as price stays above 1.1880-1.1895 and gbpjpy @ mkt is close to last week's 200.50 and needs to close above 200.95 before price can take another hike

Gold Coast martin 07:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
MOSKOW...trading rubles on steet corners is safer than your stats .....

Ldn 07:45 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Australian dollar climbed off a fresh 7-month low in Asia of US$0.6796 on Tuesday but the gains may be fleeting in a market that continues to be jittery and risk averse, dealers said. Australian dollar is not a core asset for most international investors and is easily dumped at times of uncertainty, said Peter Jolly, senior strategist at National Australia Bank. A key support level exists at US$0.6772 which is a one-third Fibonacci retracement point for the Australian dollar's rally from US$0.4775 in April 2001 up to its recent peak of US$0.8008 achieved in mid-2004.
"It may hold above that level, but I would not bet the house on it," Jolly said.
AP..

sarasota jf 07:39 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - i was asleep by then and to be honest theres not alot of interest in $cad from people i speak too - esp now its here

Moskow 07:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
if you are looking for a reliable history data for trading system verification and precise technical analysis visit
this
it is one of the trustworthiest & effective forex quotes history for intraday trading over net.
Intraday data are presented since 1997.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:34 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
jf, do u know who fired that big rocket by NY close on dlr/cad?

France Paris-the rumour man 07:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Kangooroos seen hopping back as wild hunters finished their liquidations.

France Paris-the rumour man 17:47 GMT May 17, 2004
Kangooroo hunters with wild guns on the prowl , offers chunks, BEWARE.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:30 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
10-Yr Bond : Critical Level at 110^12


The congested area of my monthly cycle charts is projected at 106^17 - 112^22 and the mid-point reference is 109^19 which is also the key quantised level. During early period of this month the market is basically vibrating around 109 ^19 with an expected magnitude of 108^25 - 111^05. The critical level of my monthly cycle charts is positioning at 110^12. The upper barrier is located at 111^29 // 112^22. The lower barrier is expected at 105^25 // 106^17. The odds are in favour of taking short position and the market has a good chance to tackle the supporting range at 105^25 - 106^17 later this month.


Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 105^25* // 106^17 - 107^10* - 108^02 - 108^27* - 109^19 - 110^12* - 111^04 - 111^29 // 112^22 - 113^14 ...

Dallas GEP 07:29 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Correction Those were AUSSIE LONGS from .6805 NOT shorts!!!!!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
from chart, dlr/cad has made a weak key outside day reversal.

Ltn th 07:25 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai BC 05:17 // There appears a lot of indicatins of asian investors liquidating a variety of US, UK and even some european assets, with the idea of repatriating profits at favorable fx rates. I can see how this can work with liquid investments such as bonds or tradeable equities. But will the rates hold long enough for liquidation of real property or would these holdings be in a form that allows faster liquidation? Pity that China has a fixed rate?

Dallas GEP 07:18 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ok closed Aussie shorts @ .6830 off a TP order from .6805. SOME of the eur/aud shorts are still working from 1.7660. Last set of lots I just closed were at 1.7482

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
bc// May I ask if yen should be in the same group wiht the commodities in the coming months movement?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:55 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Good info JF thanks.

sarasota jf 06:51 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - offer at 1.2050 option related (eur) but they are quite bullish usdyen

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:46 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks jf.

sarasota jf 06:44 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - asian options say we see 139.05 i make long on dips from here - small profit from selling little while ago - always a new game to play gl today

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
bc// will eur still be bounded just by 1.22 and 1.17 in brief till Sept?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:39 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
jf, your 138 order may just missed by a few more pips :)

What the...

MONACO OGA 06:33 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 18/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,1990), same level as Monday's opening. The market tried the upsides yesterday (high 1,2060) and sold USD on the back of deterioration of geopolitical situation in the middle east and stock markets tumbling again. High oil prices is a factor also currently weighting on the US currency. Overnight the pair retraced to 1,1950-70 support zone.This morning we have the feeling that the market is accumulating momentum for another upsides test (target 1,2170). First support appears at 1,1950-70 then 1,1900 where we will be looking to build long positions. Resistance around 1,2050, then 1,2100. We still favour range trading with bullish bias.

Data out today:

UK RICS house price balance April expected 48 08.30 GMT
UK CPI April expected 0.5% 08.30 GMT
EURozone CPI April expected 0.5% 09.00 GMT
US housing starts April expected 1980K 12.30 GMT
US building permits expected 1960K 12.30 GMT

Gold at 378,00, with WTI June higher at 41,51

***JPY***
USD/JPY (114,00). The pair briefly retreated to 113,10 before resuming uptrend to 114,65. Although japanese stocks rebounded slightly this morning, the general slump in Asia is putting pressure on the Yen. Abreak of pivotal 115 level could open way to much higher levels, on the downside, perspectives remain limited so far(strong base at 113).
EUR/JPY currently 136,40, retraced from 137,90 and still looking to challenge previous March 8th top at 139,10. Support around 134,70 now.


***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,7640), as expected challenged 1,7750 before retracing to 1,7620 supportive level. We are looking for another try of the upsides later.
EUR/GBP (0,6790) consolidating around 0,6800 level. We still favour some long positions and a retest of recent highs for an intermediate 0,6870 target before 0,70.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JFB your spreadsheet might help me to put my puzzle together faster.

Chambery FR JFB 06:26 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:23 GMT May 18, 2004
Sure, you're very welcome :-)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB good morning I am interested in your spreadsheet system you use to back test. If you don’t mind I will try to get your email from Jay. tia

Chambery FR JFB 06:16 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Morning all :-)

Fwiw, s/l being hit overnight @1.1975, +160/+175 pips. On my system, the next signal should be another buy signal, but needs to go south a little more before it can be triggered... Time will tell :-)

ML, thanks for the link :-)

Happy trades

Normandy Nick 06:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
actually gbp can go to 1.7590

Normandy Nick 06:00 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I hope you had a good week end.
The majors gave some signals: gbp/usd is pointing 1.76
usd/chf--->1.2850 euro 1.1950

Brisbane L 05:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc
really appreciate your views for the longer term which I am interested ,with many here I would imagine and agree the noise at present is a good excuse for funds to knock the markets around a bit , they obviously like to play wide ranges and take us along for the ride, to them 65 - 80 is probably the norm. again thanks.

shanghai bc 05:17 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

L -- Good afternoon..Market is still selling Asian currencies for European currencies..The logic being that China and India are in big troubles..Again,I believe the panic is all overblown..China is just trying to make GDP from 9.7 % to around 7-8% per year..Hardly a crash mode economy..In any case,my feeling is that this panic will last for a few morer months dragging down Gold to 370-350 region..Aud and Cad may not escape fate of being branded as the same family at one stroke too..Then again,I am more than happy to buy anything below .70 for the coming months..US Dollar is in serious trouble down the road,more trouble than most realize at present..Buying Gold and Aud never worry me at the present levels and below..Good trades..

Ldn 05:16 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia
thanks for that

melbourne farmacia 04:56 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 03:47 GMT May 18, 2004
Based on fibo calculations for Aud/USD suggest this current cycle will complete @ 0.6496. From the base levels 0.8003 - 0.7250, AUD retraced just under 618 to 0.7692. Calculating the projected downside targets from 0.7692 = 0.6962 and 0.6496. Yesterday's upside capped at 0.6961 being first projected target fwiw GT

Brisbane L 04:56 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Funds sold AUD and NZD against the CHF in a risk averse/flight to quality move. Sentiment towards the AUD remains bearish. Despite the temporary calm on Asian bourses, analysts feel that the uncertainties that have resulted in global investors bailing out of Asian stocks and carry trades remains. Key support for the AUD/USD comes in around 0.6770. This level is the 38.2 fibo of the all-time
low 0f 0.4770/5-year high 0.8007.

Part of IFR view....
BC would appreciate your view on the aud & Gold

shanghai bc 04:41 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..Good trades to you..

Brisbane L 04:36 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
NAB research head Peter Jolly says "the Aussie can't win a trick" still weak despite bouncing off 0.6800 and broader trend remains down, with focus now rising risk aversion, China's perceived slowdown, commodity price weakness. Key levels on downside include 0.6800, then big Fibonacci level at 0.6770 (38.2% retracement from rally to February 2004 high); break there would pave way to 0.6500 :-(( like a sinking ship only the captain on board

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 04:10 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all! Hope, EUR seems slowdown...
By the way, on Forex backstage: http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf04/opa4928-04.htm

Ldn 03:47 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin appreciate you sharing your view will look out for your levels, just hope they come sooner rather than later not sure if you saw Max Cleggs view he is seeing a bottom around 63 and then up from there. many thanks again

Gold Coast martin 03:23 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LDN...EUR has got a short term appoitnment with the 117 range by the end of business on friday....While gold is around the 378-398 i dont expect it to have a significant effect on the AUD...at 420-450 levels it will start to slow down the current down trend..i dont expect gold to climb to these levels in the short term while this aud downtrend is in motion...my take is that the the aud will bottom out at 57 by end of year with gold trading between 378-398 during this downtrending aud cycle...i dont see 500 in the horizon at all.....

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:19 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
anyone interested in gold?

Dallas GEP 03:10 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
YEP ML after NY would be good. Aussie sees .6835 MAYBE .6860 IMO

melbourne farmacia 03:03 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 02:40 GMT May 18, 2004 - yeah thanks for the link, interesting reading. Sorry 2 hear u missed that yen trade yesterday. GT

Ldn 03:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin what about the Euro do you see that down also and gold , talk its going to $500 how will the Aud react tks

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 03:01 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy failing 78.20 finally.
Now next thing to bear in mind is it's still in bottom searching mode before the next m/t rally.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 02:58 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
bc// Noted your email. It's my great pleasure to hearing from you.

Yesterday, I shared a view with the pals that eur might just range here and there till summer ends.

Sept are for the adults.

Gold Coast martin 02:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
LDN...There are various reasons why the aud dropped so suddenly....It has simply resumed its downward trend which eventually will bring it down to the 57 level by the end of the year(refer to previous posts).In the meantime i am looking for the 6775 resistance level to be breached(was expecting it on friday).Should this occur we will be down to 6650 level by end of ny session friday..We all have to remember that the best -performing currency of last-year got the most up-side last year,so it has got the most downside this year.Some of the reasons that we dont visibly see in relation to the recent drop is the continuation by japs to take their assets out of australia back home,the declining number of uridashi issuances,forecast of falling commodity trade with emerging world powers..in a nutshell the picture short ,medium snd long is not good for the aussie...presents opportunity to make good returns AS IT IS GOING ONE WAY...G/L G/T

ICT ML 02:40 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP.....how ya doing lately.......we need to finish that conversation we started a few weeks ago;-) you be around after it slows down in NY session?

I usually determine my trades for the week on Sunday night....but the only clear thing I saw was gbp-chf selling off and usd-yen heading towards 125 if 113 held....and maybe a sell order at .7000 eur-gbp.

It looked like $CAD and $Yen were at possible weekly turn down points, and I was thinking buying $CAD at 1.3650 was a good idea..looks like I missed that boarding call. I was shocked to come back this afternoon to see how far it bounced today....

OK SZ 02:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, yes I do agree with that..thanks for the updates..

ML, thanks for that link you sent..good reading:)

Hong Kong Qindex 02:28 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 02:25 GMT - Good morning! There is a lot of uncertainty this week.

Dallas GEP 02:27 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Took AUSSIE long from .6805, stop .6788 and TP @ .6835. Got eur/aud short off an order from much earlier @ 1.7660. No euro/usd of gbp/usd possies YET

OK SZ 02:25 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, good call on the euro

OK SZ 02:07 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
BB, that is a amen brother..I just closed my euro short at 70 will look to buy soon..gl, gt everyone

USA Biscuit Boy 01:47 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to ML. Sounds like he will be relieving members of 82nd Airborne (his old unit) for a year. Alot of reservists got the call this weekend.

USA Biscuit Boy 01:38 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Cheers SZ. The call from his recruitment officer was totally unexpected. We will be praying for all of them.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:32 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:31 GMT May 18, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.1964 - 1.2082 and the mid-point reference is 1.2023. Initially the market has a tendency to trade between 119.68 - 120.31.

Gen dk 01:24 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 01:21 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
SZ..yes, my system is up again, but requires some more work this weekend.

looking at $Y, $CAD, and AUD$......think the $bears are about to be ambushed again in a big way.

Now i wish I had taken my own trade reccomendation from London session and bought $Y at 113.5 and 113.05.....

Hong Kong Qindex 01:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:13 GMT May 18, 2004
USD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is positioning at 114.68. The lower barrier is expected at 113.13 // 113.44 and the upper barrier is located at 114.68 // 114.99. The market rhythm of my daily cycle is represented by 31 pips. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 111.90 ... 112.52 ... 113.13 // 113.44 - 113.75 - 114.06 - 114.37 - 114.68 // 114.99 ... 115.61 ...

hong kong nt 01:09 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
AUD MT downside target 0.6600...

OK SZ 01:08 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
BB, my brother-in-law was just sent to afghanistan 2 weeks ago so I wish your brother all the best and a safe return. Take care mate and gl, gt

ML, how are you doing? finally get your system up and running again..have a good evening

ICT ML 01:05 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
USA BB....I know of several former "sharpshooter" types that have been called back up the past several weeks. Think they need guys that can control areas of ground from roof tops.

Tell your Brother to stay smart over there, and many thanks from my family for his service.

Ldn 01:03 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
David Mozina, currency strategist at ABN AMRO AUD factors looking weaker by the day and downward pressure isn't going to abate anytime soon, saying any strength should be used as an opportunity to extend or initiate new shorts
reuters

Gold Coast Martin whats your take on this recent drop and your base
tks

Eilat Dolphin 00:52 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy/ Hi! Ten years from now, Irak GDP will probably beat the Japanese one just out... not to mention all Arab countries' GDP (if they still have one).

And it will only be because Boys like your brother!

Ldn 00:48 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
USA biscuit Boy , think the 30th June deadline for Iraq with the build up of attacks becoming a worry especially after the Iraqi assassination

USA Biscuit Boy 00:42 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:37 GMT May 18, 2004

Not sure if this is to relieve current units or to add. My brother who has been out of military for 2 years just got called up this weekend to be deployed in Iraq also. Not sure what's going on yet.

Ldn 00:37 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
WHITE HOUSE said to be pulling units From S Korea for Iraq.

USA Biscuit Boy 00:35 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out and reversed aud/usd at 0.6830 (-55 pips).

Global-View 00:15 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
GVI 00:13 GMT May 18, 2004
Japanese GDP Grew at Annual 5.6% Pace in 1st Qtr LINK

oskar olso 00:14 GMT May 18, 2004 Reply   
i prefer sealing - fun too vlub thpse little boogers over the head

 




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