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Forex Forum Archive for 05/20/2004

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SA Newbie 23:59 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks.

Normandy Nick 23:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Newbie,
I use the Macd above all. It's more reliable IMO.

SA Newbie 23:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick--Hi, may I bother you again? At the moment the stoch on the hrly chart is oversold, and the macd is just crossing for a buy. Which one in yr opinion then the more important? Thanks again!

Bali Golla 23:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hallo every body..

SA Newbie 23:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick---Thanks!!

Tokyo Jon 23:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD(1.1962) has 75% probable upward move today, but could play a tight field between 1.1917/1.1967/1.2010

USDJPY(112.75) has 63% probable downward move today, but once again rangebound of 113.30/112.50

USDCHF(1.2849) 60% downward move

GBPUSD(1.7774) rangebound

ran out of steam at the end, must sleep,bfn

Normandy Nick 23:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Newbie,
I use ema, 50 ema, and Macd 15/35/15 Stochastic 14/3/3

GOLD IN GREAT MOOD...

Ldn 23:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
typo US

Ldn 23:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg reporting US investigating 'suspicious'activity on SU railway links

SA Newbie 23:24 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick-- May I ask if you mainly use ma`s, or do you use oscillaters as well? Reason I ask is that many times the ma`s cross, the oscillaters look ob or os, and then it keeps me out.----to my detriment. Do you use some kind of filter? TIA

Normandy Nick 23:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
long on pound at 1.7765, square on the 50 ema 1 hour chart, stop below

Normandy Nick 23:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I think a bottom is developping on gbp/usd, I'll buy a return above the 50 ema , 5 minutes chart, ideally, a return on 50 ema 1 hour chart, 2 white candlesticks (one higher than the other one) would also do the trick on 5 minutes chart....

hk ab nzd .65 23:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
That will involve a lof of countries LDN.
And I forgot to mention those ex-USSR countries.

hk jn 23:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good morning ab, you are early bird, hope you get good meal today

hk ab nzd .65 23:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
according to what he said, that's the parity.

But I won't take it of course even oilman is not that hawkish except Fed hike with a serious statement....

Ldn 23:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd .65 if the gold sellers are not too careful they will make the mistake BOE did !!

Normandy Nick 23:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
"me eur 1.0 by summer....." what do you mean? eur/usd at parity by summer 2004???

houston st 23:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

hello all..still buying eur/usd on decent dips, which we had today..sold usd/jpy & usd/chf earlier today..will probably square everything up before NY session & enjoy a long weekend. good trades to all.

Antwerp Tom 23:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys. What (promise) did Bush get for renaming G.?

Dallas GEP 23:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
CAEL, quite alot actually. It makes no difference to me whatsoever.

Dallas GEP 23:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Actually TJ. Texans do very well with math historically. ONE RIOT = ONE TEXAS RANGER for example.

hk ab nzd .65 23:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Oilman, I got a friend (the one recommended selling nz .65-.69) saying that Finnand, Canada, European countries are selling gold reserve big time. And he told me eur 1.0 by summer.........
Thought it will be too far but I want to see what will u regard on the above piece?

If so, I think this selling will be balanced by China buying and China selling T-bond to stabilize the eur and usd.

houston st 23:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

what's math? gl/gt.

verona cael 23:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP .... out of curiosity, are you ever bearish USD?

Dallas GEP 22:59 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jon, what on your system looks to have VERY best potential gain tonight (which pair and from where???)

london david 22:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hi, where i can find CFD live chat rooms

GA TJ 22:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Come on GEP. do the math.
7 Days X 7 Hrs Per Day sleep = 49 Hrs sleep
From Friday at 5pm to Sunday 5 pm = 48 Hrs Sleep
I suppose those Texans have a hard time with the math (LOL)
Just got back to the screen, have been gone all day. Just doing a little raiding for 20 here and 20 there. It does add up but not as thrilling as the Big Hit.

Normandy Nick 22:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Ok GEP, your posts have all my consideration and I will think twice before shorting the greenback.
Otherwise, I just went short on usd/jpy at 112.72. The attack angle to the downside is very high, square around 113.2 ; stop above.

Ldn 22:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
USD Strength Looks Stretched

A number of indicators that have been consistent with recent USD strength now look stretched .The stars are aligning for the USD bounce of the last 3 months to stall and possibly reverse - short-term.
Westpac report

Tokyo Jon 22:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hello all just updating, what a great day yesterday. Dallas GEO I hope you didnt short your gbpusd last night

Dallas GEP 22:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Angus you are clueless as usual. ANYBODY with any sense that does this MORE than fulltime has somebody he partners with so that if NOT on the board your partner can watch and make adjustments if necessary. ESPECIALLY if you trade all three sessions. This is an EXTREMELY common practice but it does assume you have at least one very close friend and that indeed may be a problem for you!!!

Dallas GEP 22:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OK guys if yoiu think about it ALL day today we had WEAK US data and to top it off a FED Chairman that gave USD bears even more opportunity to DRIVE all these postions very hard against the dollar.

Now IMO, the USD has held up VERY well. My belief which may be in the minority is that USD will rebound as soon as BEFORE THIS week's end. And if it doesn't, NEXT week it should.

We MAY VERY well see consolidation in ASIA tho and the bigger movements in LONDON and US



Sydney Angus 22:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
SA Newbie 22:17 GMT May 20, 2004

My advice mate, is get a platform that gives you magical fills 20 points better than banks can get. Also, acquire some mates that offer posh timing in raising stops for ya. Sound luck management, if you believe the lines of hogwash put out here.

SA Newbie 22:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick Thanks, I posted before I read yr reply. Thanks a lot for everybody sharing ideas and knowledge.

SA Newbie 22:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep Hi, burning the midnight oil this side. Do you still hold yr view on cable, and if so, till what level ? I was short whole day, got stopped, and now a serious case of the jitters.TIA

Aden PK 22:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, I am short in Euro from1.1940,stop 1.1985 bid GBP short from 1.6737 stop 1.6815 bid, Aussie short .6957 stop .6977 bid any suggestion should I keep these positions or close earlier what is your expectation will market retrace first in Asia or we see directly higher from these levels. Thanks

Normandy Nick 22:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hi,
technically speaking, the majors are oriented against the dollar with significant divergence on each Macd. This is a clear strike back against the dollar especially for the cable that has rebounded of more than 100 pips. In my opinion, the market expects, at least, a re-test of 1.7850. I'll buy on dips (50 ema) or on a clear break of 1.78. But first, I think a "poker strike ' can be tented at 1.78 if the trend misses of conviction, stop/reverse at 1.7815 . 1.78 is the key IMO.
Clues: usd/jpy dangerously low, usd/chf double top? if Gold > 380
GL/GT

Ldn 22:09 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Fed McTeer:Wants To Be Less 'Preemptive' On Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer said Thursday in an interview with CNBC that he's grown less inclined to try to head off inflationary pressures with rate hikes. "I try to be less preemptive" in thinking about monetary policy relative to the past, McTeer said, referring to the Fed's historic desire to stop inflation before it happens, as opposed to killing off inflation that's already rising. McTeer said he saw little chance that any economic data between now and the Fed policy meeting at the end of June could force the central bank to hike rates before that gathering. "I think the only thing that could legitimately do that would be a bad inflation report. And we are pretty well through this month. We have only one more month to go."
CNBC.

Mtl JP 22:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nh / wide-eyed enthusiasm eh ? I posted this on GVI earlier today:
"just because no economist expects a rapid rate rise, including Bernanke: "The good news is that, because of the impact of private-sector expectations about policy on current long-term rates, a significant portion of the financial adjustment associated with the tightening cycle may already be behind us.", does not mean it can not happen. That is why the language has the term "surprise". Ok, so not 5, how about 3.5-4.5 % ? Now that would appear to fit a gradualist's "and then they all lived happily ever after" scenario, but in real life croccodiles eat antelopes for lunch. Chances are good of real-life credit cruch . "

Dallas GEP 22:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Ok friends . Those last possie suggestions I had absolutely SUCKED. The FED chairman owes me some money for being so wishy washy about rate changes which is CONTRARY to what everyone else was saying at the FED. I DID NOT anticipate that event risk.

The usd/chf long never had a chance and the ONLY reason I am not stopped out on GBP short and CAD long positions is that a very dear friend of mine was watching while I was out stuffing my ignorant face and stops were raised on those two.

Ldn 21:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
USD: Less Hawkish Fed Tone May Be Hurting USD

Livingston nh 21:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
weak ?? - i don't know but AUD could go to 71 lvl on its MACD and EUR closed above 21 da mava so maybe a test of 1.2075 // I just don'tknow about weak US data

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Of course this could be wishful thinking on my part lol.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:18 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Support held the progress for eur/usd at 1.1890-1900 area. I have an intraday buy signal coming for eur/usd pair if it can clear this resistance level that used to be support around 1.1980 area. The fibos from the last move are 1.1955-60, 1.1975-80 and 1.1995-2000. Resistance is still 1.1995-2005, 1.2025-35 with the T/L around 1.2035-40 area and 1.2060 as top. I think eur/usd might get to break out of this range this time after all IMHO. Now back to finish my nap. GL GT

Brisbane L 21:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh data out of US weak also aussie has tried downside several times and look exhausted same applies to Euro however, looking into Monday Dollar strength

Livingston nh 21:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
L - WHY??

Brisbane L 21:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Anyone see the dollar under a bit of pressure in Asia today ?
we could see aussie try 70 + again later Euro 120+

ny amc 21:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
where do you guys see eur/usd next resistance level ? thanks

GVI john 21:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1965…$/yen 112.80
DJIA 9,938, -0 pts NASDAQ 1,897, -2 pts
10-yr 4.71%, -6 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE



See text on GVI

Livingston nh 20:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
JP - ya could puke after ya read that -- sounds like some 1960's save the world do gooder stuff- gradualism (that must be an economic concept I missed)

Livingston nh 20:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
JP - typical - Bernanke thinx 2001 was gradual ( he doesn't speak of where they were) - of course, nobody in the audience has any sense of history just wide eyed enthusiasm

CAIRO AG 20:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Cable might stop longing at 1.7787

Mtl JP 20:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Fed Bernanke's Gradualism speech

Bahrain KZ 19:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
stg tommorow will hit todays high maybe 1.7890..would be nice short...have a nice day everyone...chf will hit it's low 1.2740 some place..
:) Bye

dc fxq 19:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
exactly what I had to do to adapt but since I had also traded IMM currency futures I had begun that process before I made the switch.

prague viktor 18:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 18:35 GMT May 20, 2004:Good day ,do u think its the same case befor 11,03,2004

houston st 18:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

fyi, eur/usd 200 dma still around 1.1955. gl/gt.

Livingston nh 18:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP - when you get time (w/e) look at the march of the majors against the USD and then match the the non-USD pairs // set Cable at the end / then AUD // CAD, EUR, CHF - rank'em as you see'em (My personal political opinion on CHF is terror heavy i.e., swiss will be hit) - your scope is shorter than mine obviously so fwiw

Livingston nh 18:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
fxq - thanx - I have brought my stock indicators here and there are only minor adjustments (mostly time - forex is quicker)

Dallas GEP 18:18 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dammm I do need a break, those USD/CADS are longs that I have NOT shorts.

dc fxq 18:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 16:57 GMT

re: ur ??? to za: just saw it and let me respond as well.

From the late 1980's through 2000 I traded Bonds and Notes using the same package of indicators I have used for forex since that time. Fibs, EMA, RS and Support and Resistance projections worked just as well if not better than with spot forex.

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Shittttt OIL MAN, they can't all be heavy!!!! This is what I like:

GBP/USD shorts with 1.7770 stop
USD/CHF Long from 1.2895, stop 1.2860, TP 1.3010
Euro/USD short from 1.1915, stop 1.1945, TP 1.1885

Cad is ALL screwed uo with Eur/CAD going so short

I got the SWISS possie waiting from above, and I am in GBP shorts and the DUBOUIS at this time usd/cad shorts with stop @ 1.3677 target 1.38.

Out to Lunch (physically and mentally)

Gen dk 18:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Minnesota Mark 17:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Ok Oilman - Selling everything, the wife didn't appreciate me putting that "For Sale" sign on her though.

UAE Oil man 17:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Guess we hit 1.1760 tommorrow ..Close at 1.1880..ZzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZZZZ....

UAE Oil man 17:51 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Nh, All the pairs look heavy..Euro$ looks heavy,$chf looks heavy,$cad looks heavy,$yen looks heavy,Eurojap looks heavy,GBJPY looks heavy,EuroGBP looks heavy,GBP$ looks heavy,gold looks heavy,Oil looks heavy..


Just sell across the board ?:)

UAE Oil man 17:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Well tuesday ,thursday..always had the problem..
---

Livingston nh 17:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Ahhha - OILMAN - will you share the lost hours between Tuesday and Thursday with us?? -- anyway GBP/CAD looks heavy but maybe not enough to short

ny amc 17:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
genoa.nic/spotforex.......thanks for answering my ignorant question

Toronto YV 17:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Genoa Nic , thanks for the site very useful . GL.

Bandung Zink 17:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas
Do you still believe in your position against USD? What is your stop loss for GBP/USD??

Livingston nh 17:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OIL MAN - TUESDAY ??? do you still have 2.50 on the GBP/CAD screen?

Gen dk 17:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UAE Oil man 17:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thursday

UAE Oil man 17:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Well lots of talks, to keep things shorts we closed for the last 2 weeks at 1.1880 (or so)..Where are we tuesday ?1.1900..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I do not mind SZ go right ahead and now I will go to my nap later fellow traders.

Stockholm za 17:19 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh ..........
NO I do not trade nor track bond movements (with EMA) I only follow the normal reports and E-letters from the proofs to know & keep update with what’s happening on that side… (Knowledge is power)…
However I an sure that the ema-fib sere will work as well as it does –
Any thing with high/low & time shift will respect the law..
Happy trades to you ….

Genoa nic 17:15 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi amc, try this:
http://www.aboutforex.com/timezones.html

OK SZ 17:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, do you mind if I get your email from jay? I would like to ask you something

ny amc 17:09 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nyc..nyc.........come on cut a fellow ny'er some slack.....i know it is open 24hrs..i should have phrased it what time does it start to get active at.....

Spotforex NY 17:06 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I use the change to 0:00 GMT as the start of the Asian session (Nikkei opens then too)...that currently corresponds with 8pm EST......

Yes the market is 24 hours during the workweek....but things like what time does it open does ring some truth.... NY interbank dealers usually report to their desks at 7am EST.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
AMC there is no stupid question that you learn from. I consider 6-7 pm to be my asian session to do some homework.

NYC NYC 17:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
amc. It is a stupid question as we are on EDT and there is no official opening. Centers come online as they open up but alot of desks use 24 hour trading.

NYC NYC 17:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
amc. I tis a stupid questiuon as we are on EDTR and there is no official opening. Centers come online as they open up but alot of desks use 24 hour trading.

ny amc 16:59 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
miami.......stupid question but here goes...what time is the asian open in EST

Livingston nh 16:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za - do you track bond movements with EMA?

Stockholm za 16:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.......
You Guy`s Are Very Entertaining....... !!
Happy trades .....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Keep watering ML the fruit of your labor is sweeter when there is a lot of work involved. I am glad you are doing well.

Islander I will take you up on that suggestion and take a nap before the Asian session later.

Livingston nh 16:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ml - don't worry global warming will allegedly allow the midwest to be covered by water again (not good for lawns but great for fishermen) - meanwhile EUR and GBP have broken back below 21 da mva so we might get the test we need

nyc jk 16:51 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
pretty soon ML will be resorting to painting the house and watching it dry!!

Indonesia, Jakarta mike 16:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hmm, just got 32 pips on EUR/USD... :)

st. pete islander 16:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
You saw it here first .... the market is dead and ML is growing grass!

st. pete islander 16:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Easy to do, my friend. I still put the dog in the kennel every so often. When we get into tight ranges like this, he tends to snap at anything. Must be boredom. He also likes to chase cars! Bad Dog! I suspect things will put me back to sleep soon. Perhaps Asia or the "Friday" effect will cause a break out of this. Still seems to be 1.18 to 1.22 range intact. Summer is here. gt

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Eur/CAD shorts are REALLY pulling usd/cad short. If this continues, they will pull usd/cad thru that 1.3690 trendline and below. My stops at 1.3680 look to have 50/50 chance of survival.

Now I am out.

ICT ML 16:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...yes...trying to keep water on newly seeded lawn in 90 degree temps.......requires constant attention. If only they'd invent sprinkler systems with a ground moisture level trigger.....

anyways, the market is a dead duck lately...nothing showing any real strength, nothing following through on any weakness.....eur-usd been making love to its weekly ema50 now for far too long...should have bounced high and far off it if it was to do so I think.

Think we'll probably see another burst of $$$ buying tomorrow and next week but nothing is a sure thing.

have fun.

athens kos44 16:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT May 20, 2004

Hi.. Very intresting and correct opinion.

Happy trading

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OK guys candle patterns SUGGEST that we are in a consolidation mode here for now. I will return in a few hours. CHOW

Minnesota Mark 16:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT May 20, 2004

Yes, emotion, my major fault.. I do have to be VERY careful with that. Though, unlike you, at the moment I'm playing options and have to be really careful on that 12 hour period when I can't make any changes.

OK SZ 16:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
well I am hoping the euro trades up to 40 so I can sell it there..will see where the market goes..gl, gt all

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:36 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good to hear from you ML you hardly get out of your hobbit hole anymore. GEP is kicking AS**** and taking names today LOL.

Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Mark, I am probably of the LEAST patient people you will ever meet BUT that characteristic will cost you alot of money in Forex if you are not careful. How many times have you seen people including me post that if they had just waited they coould have made alot more money on a possie???? The market moves at it's own pace and it doesn't give a dammmm about whether or not you are tired or not paying attention etc.

Have you ever noticed that if you are holding a LOSING position and it starts to go back your way that there is a tendancy to just close out when you are near BE especially if you have held possie for sometime???? That's the type of thing I am talking about.

ICT ML 16:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
eur-usd broke its swing support from 1.1750 at 00:00GMT today, and giving another preliminary daily sell signal with falling support line at 1.1600 today (not saying we see that level yet) , cable and gbp-jpy and aud$ and eur-gbp are looking to possibly break their swing supports on this 4 hr candle close of NY.

$Swiss broke out of its resistance, $cad and $yen are still not quite finished with their pullback, but when its time, they should take off strong to the upside, maybe in London session.

I mentioned looking to buy bounce off 1.3650 $CAD this week on Monday, think I might get the chance still, but will catch it on its way back up not pick a bottom. Gbp-chf looks to be a buy for 2.3050 maybe, it cleared its resistance.

These are 4 hr signals and require wide stops to trade off of. I'll update them after NY close. enjoy.

Minnesota Mark 16:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT May 20, 2004

Still hanging in there with you on the GBP shorts, but this battle is getting tiring. With a decent consolidation here we could see a nice run up afterward. (which would be good for my JPY longs and my XAU shorts.)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:25 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I have about the same Islander my stops were not taken out today I manually bailed from my short intraday position which is a no no for me and shows the frustration of this ranging week for eur/usd. This may prove to be another valuable lesson. Intraday indicators are in O/S territory and with the bad data out of US I don’t see where this is going. I guess that is why the systems that we use have a better % over our emotions they don’t think they just follow. GT

Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
WE may VERY well have some consolidation here due to indecision PRIOR to any additional moves.

Bahrain KZ 16:23 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The whole think is waiting for the dow to hit 9818 then every is back to normal

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The break of 1.2900 on usd/chf was bullish. USD/CAD is being a LAGGER....you could BUY usd/chf with stop below 1.2860 for test of 1.2940/50 area (about 1.1880 on EURO when 1.2940 is seen). Eur/cad short is putting a lid on usd/cad longs for the time being. If and when US gets stronger THEN that is when usd/cad will long. GBP has the POTENTIAL to move the MOST of the majors.

Gen dk 16:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain KZ 16:18 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
chr
Try Longing EURCAD
cover with 150 points

st. pete islander 16:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Morning, OMIL .... I got 1.1893 on that little Euro dip. What did you show? Interesting to see if it tries that critical spot you are looking for, eh? gt

Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Well it ain't over yet but if it were me I would like for upticks on euro and gbp as opps to BUY usd. Already heavily committed to GBP/USD shorts and USD/CAD longs and EUR/AUD shorts

chr svi 16:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep:
what will be a good buy enry? any comment?

OK SZ 16:14 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, yes 11890 must break for further downside

Boca Raton 16:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
You are da MAN GEP!!! Da MAN.

chr svi 16:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep:
i must confess..............you re d too good

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
As I said before this is critical support here for eur/usd IMHO.

Dallas GEP 16:09 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Told you boys DOLLAR BUYING DAY!!!

ny amc 16:09 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
yes...............i make my own mistakes and give credit where credit is due

Sydney alimin 16:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ny amc, if the reverse happened, will you still love him though? :)

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The TECHNICALS are saying to BUY dollar if that is worth anything. GBP sellers at 1.7746 (FIB), buyers at 1.7630/40.

ny amc 16:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
mtl....jp...........i think I love you. i just read your post over there about usd/jpy so i put a short in and in less than 45 seconds i took a 19 pip profit on a pretty big position.

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
No big dollar dumping yet....may get reverse WATCH out!!!!

Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Number is BADD 23.8

Gold Coast martin 15:59 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP..It is called thinking "outside the circle"...if you are in the circle you become perfect prey for the big fish as they know that is where the concentration of money is and since the big fish are outside this circle they choose an alternate route(they think outside the circle) using various methods to relieve the sheep of all their money ....good trades friend..

Bahrain KZ 15:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,
I sort of share ths same idea...if you can't tell where something is going...then focus on where it cannot go...must do the reverse... I think might agree with me in that?
Cheers Dallas...You are a very clever man!!

Dallas GEP 15:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Expected PHILLY FED NUMBER is 32 out in few minutes

hk ab nzd .65 15:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, how are you? What's your take on eur?

HK Kevin 15:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd .65 15:16 GMT, because we are small investors.

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Prior to WWII the French built this great line of defense that could defeat or at least greatly limit the advance of an armoured invading force into their country. What they DIDN'T count on was an attack BYPASSING their defense lines altogether and going directly through the BLACK Forest.

It currency trading it is the same, the best results are procured by using an ALTERNATE route because there are too many obstacles on what MOST would perceive to be the best most direct route.

Sydney Rosebery 15:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas... are you still bullish for GBP?

Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF has longed about 30 pips over the last hour and a half. It APPEARS to be the leading indicator at this time IMO

Dallas GEP 15:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
BTW that USD/CAD trendline is at 1.3690 NOT 1.3790!!!!

ny amc 15:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
mtl..jp..what are your thoughts on gbp/usd here

Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Well EV, the absolue minimun in theory could be only 1 PIP between HIGH and LOW but of course when you apply the FIB percentages you would would fractional untradeable values. The WIDER the range between the high and low lends itself to MORE accurate predictions of exactly where pricing action may stop and reverse.

Bahrain KZ 15:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Great to be of some assitance to anyone here... :) Happy Trading all..

Mtl JP 15:25 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
amc 15:16 / that means risk of a loser next time is increasing.. LOL . good for you, and g/l !

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
NH, I am going with the theory that the 1.3790 trendline WILL NOT be broken and that PHIILY FED will at least be neutral or positive. I will also say that the VAST majority of the time YOU are correct with your techniical calls so I could be as wrong as the GERMANS were in their predictions on the D-DAY invasion!!!!.

Hasselt EV 15:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
mister Dallas GEP, what is the minimum pips (between high and low) you need for fibonacci....thank you

Bahrain KZ 15:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
1.3670 sorry about that..Dallas.. :)

Bahrain KZ 15:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas;
1.3940 Next week for cad
I would buy 1.3970 somewhere there...But I think the rally already started
:)

ny amc 15:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
mtl.jp>>> I booked a quick 19 pips on your dlrcad call. thats the 3rd time i followed and third profit.......thanks

Dallas GEP 15:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
PHILLY FED comes out at 16:00 GMT expected is 32 (higher the number the better of course)

hk ab nzd .65 15:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
why I feel that buying aud is a contra........

Dallas GEP 15:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
SAINT3, I beleive that GBP/USD will test and go THRU it's low of 1.7636 TODAY or TOM. I think CAD could see 1.38 TODAY or TOM. GBP/USD went to 50% FIB (daily move) at 1.7746 (1.7857 to 1.7636)

FIBS do work MOST of the time. You just have to figure out WHICH one.

hk ab nzd .65 15:06 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nk, mkt listening to you....

Bahrain KZ 14:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
houston;
sounds like;
Currecny Short Long Short Cover Long Cover
USDCAD 1.3858 1.3648 1.3854 1.3660
from down there...few messeges down
Cheers

Livingston nh 14:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP - USD/CAD -take a look at daily 21 ma and 55 ema - they crossed for the first time since end of March (MACD crossed down yesterday) - hourly looks weak // CPI and employment figs have probably removed fundamentals for rate cut (which I had expected) // there may not be much upward pressure on this one for a bit

houston st 14:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

this just in...fwiw.

USD/CAD has extended the technical break of 1.3740, but the drop has been a surprisingly slow affair despite the depth of longs exposed in the market. In addition to the 1.3740 break we have taken out the May 6th low at 1.3700, and this looks to have opened the door for a run upon the strong support level at 1.3630. On top of the technical breakdown in the headline we should also expect pressure via Eur/Cad into 1.6400, which despite attracting buyers into 1.6400 has now broken knocked out strong support at 1.6370, and has set up the possibility of an extension towards 1.6250-1.6300.

LA saint3 14:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep...

What is your view on gbp/usd ??

TIA

sgp sp 14:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
no problem ab, my aud/nzd limit longs hit at 1.1463.....fig suggested by nt and Byron....becos lately alot of my limit odas missed by 13 pips...so ur suggestion of 1.1450 + 13.....

hope u can get ur laptop fixed asap.

Bahrain KZ 14:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Qatar,
I never been there nor Bahrain....Hot I hear about these places...Right?...I just like the name ... :)
Cheers

hk ab nzd .65 14:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
To make aud rally, first we need aud/jpy bottom out.

sp// I am now using my bro note book, so I don't have yim tonight.
Let's talk here.

slv sam 14:34 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
US military raids pentagon favorite man Chalabi..is negative news for US$..as it reflects deep division within Bush administration...IMHO.GT

Bahrain KZ 14:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
I would order more at that stop
I would leave it without a stop if I where you... :)
It's going up..

qatar YJ 14:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
yah am from qatar.

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I have addded more LONG USD/CAD's on more accounts, stops on ALL usd/cad is now 1.3680.

Bahrain KZ 14:24 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
qatar...are u?

qatar YJ 14:23 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain..are you arab? are you from bahrain

Bahrain KZ 14:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I would buy double at your figure...It's great there!!
And Thanks Nottin
these are my levels for the rest of us MKT time..
cheers

Currecny Short Long Short Cover Long Cover
EURUSD 1.2136 1.1878 1.2113 1.1885
USDJPY 113.89 112.21 113.85 112.31
GBPUSD 1.8025 1.7635 1.7988 1.7647
USDCHF 1.2894 1.2659 1.2890 1.2673
EURCHF 1.5403 1.5281 1.5395 1.5283
AUDUSD 0.7039 0.6857 0.7024 0.6863
USDCAD 1.3858 1.3648 1.3854 1.3660
NZDUSD 0.6129 0.5988 0.6119 0.5992
EURGBP 0.6771 0.6698 0.6770 0.6702
EURJPY 136.90 134.61 136.75 134.66
GBPJPY 203.49 199.49 203.22 199.58
CHFJPY 89.19 87.71 89.09 87.74
GBPCHF 2.2914 2.2620 2.2897 2.2626
EURAUD 1.7384 1.7130 1.7379 1.7144
EURCAD 1.6656 1.6379 1.6636 1.6384
AUDCAD 0.9659 0.9466 0.9645 0.9471
AUDJPY 79.42 77.80 79.31 77.84

Nottingham 14:14 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain KZ 14:08 GMT

You may be right, use usdcad as a guide...trendline at 3690...gl gt

Bahrain KZ 14:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham,
Thanks for thoughts and this eurcad...it might be over supplied at 1.6636 as well...;)
Thanks :)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:06 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
confirm will get 1.7781

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
in my system gbp/usd now have given buy signal.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I think now is the time for weak of usd.
let's go !!

Nottingham 14:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
KZ,

Nottingham 16:36 GMT May 17, 2004
london cam 16:15 GMT

the standard system that I use for this pair would still need a couple of figures from here before o/b reached but I have been reading a report today which suggests that the cross is vulnerable to a heavy fall should the pair show signs of lost momentum...amongst various conventional (for want of a better word) arguments they point to recent IMM commitment figures which show sharp increases in cad shorts as well as a healthy increase in euro longs...while IMM volume is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, it has proven to be a good indicator nonetheless the report argues...as always you need to take it with a pinch, but food for thought if nothing else...gl gt

demand for that pair seen at 1.63...gl gt

Gold Coast martin 14:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tonites market is a 'DEAD MARKET" with no dominant players to give it clear direction....it is neither good to watch and learn from it or trade profitably.. ...if open positions the propabilities of losing are extremely high...one solution only....shut shop and re-charge for an eventful friday... g/l to all...

Gen dk 14:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

OK SZ 13:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, looking forward to it..take care

OK SZ 13:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
also hearing of a strike on the eur/jpy at 135

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
SZ I also appreciate everybody’s effort here. I hope I can prove a point with out loosing integrity. This will be no BS because the positions are clearly on the archives stay tune buddy.

sydney fg 13:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Doing same here Nick. Finish off this cuppa, take my pips for the day and come back with fresh eyes tomorrow. g/l all.

Bahrain KZ 13:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Eur/cad longing anyone? Like right now...;)

Normandy Nick 13:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:49 GMT May 20, 2004
Exactly! it is always here! GL/GT

Normandy Nick 13:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
it's on my platform CFD (c)(m)(c)

Dallas GEP 13:49 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OK Nick. I had a place saved here on the MAGIC carpet ride for you but the market is alwys HERE my friend. LOL

MSC EQWIS 13:49 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 12:21
Pls,if it"s possible, what is your sourse of the gold quotes?

Normandy Nick 13:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Ok, I'm out. Something is telling me this is the kind of session perfect to lose money! GL/GT see you tommorrow

Dallas GEP 13:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ONE has to remember that by the time MOST traders react, it is too LATE. It is easy to be caught up in the price action when the market is moving rapidly but you must ask yourself WOULD you take that position NORMALLY under less frantic conditions. And if the ANSWER is NO or porbably NOT, it is best NOT to take possie.

OK SZ 13:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, you know I will be waiting..I appreciate your time and effort..

Gen dk 13:32 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sydney fg 13:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
omil,
hehehe. Looking fwd to it. good luck fella.

Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Raton STOP stratgey will be diffrent with each trader. Number ONE you have to determine you ability to hold a stop. SO for instance if for some reason, you couldn't hold more than a 20 pip stop for some reason than that would be a paramter you would have to factor in. The stops should be IMO 10-15 pips ABOVE strong resistance or support, They work better for me if they are ODD numbers, like 1.7761 stop instead of 1.7760 stop. AND on RISK events, the price action can likely go thru strong support or resistance levels and the go back to levels they were previously IF the data proves out to be nOT trend altering (that's a judgement call you have to make on the fly ,,,, DIFFICULT).

Once 30 pips up could THEN set stop at BE OR take HALF your lots out at PROFIT and then put stop at BE on rest of lots,

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:19 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Not at this time FG I will continue to post my positions as I have this week to prove a point at the end of the week. Stay tune (R/R) experiment (lesson) coming up Friday.

Nottingham 13:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...trendline at 3690...more demand expected 3655/70...gl gt

Normandy Nick 13:15 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I now favor the upside on gbp/usd; 1.7743 is a signal to get 1.78 maybe but if it's too boring , i switch off the computer. The upmove we saw just after the datas shows at leat, that the datas don't deserve a stronger dollar so..let's see....

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hey friends..
I look chance in aud/usd for buy now when at 0.6947, because in my TA rule price must show minimal 0.7015.
let's action for buy !!

sydney fg 13:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
thanks for your thoughts omil.
I suspect you'de be a buyer above 1.1960?

Boca Raton 13:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:50 GMT May 20, 2004
Note about STOPS, prior to these RISK events you will have to widen stops especially if you beleive price action will revert back to the trend BEFORE the data release if price action goes aginst your possie.

I am trying to understand your methodology on why some stops are wider than others. Especially on the doubled up or LAYERED as you call it British Pound short position you had before it was stopped. What criteria do you use in setting stops? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that should have been 200 sma support and 200ema resistance on the 1hr chart for now.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW FG the 250 ema on the 1hr chart has held court all week long and I have to be patient if I want to catch the big fish. There may still be a chance for this move and I might of pulled the trigger to fast this time as the 250 sma contains the upside for now IMO.

Dallas GEP 13:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
YEP Jon, those usd/jpy longs worked very well, the eur/aud shorts are fine, the original gbp/usd short worked very well, and the GBP is going to short like a dog if not now then THIS week and USD/CAD will long at least 50 pips. The last two are my opinion of course.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I look 5 minutes chart.. if any candle close below 112.85..that's too bad for buy possie. Rule is price must below 112.77. better sell. LOL

Dallas GEP 12:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Pumpkin. Once gain BANKS enjoy the float and their depositors do not!!!!

Nottingham 12:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:52 GMT

some looking for 111.75 to be done...gl gt

Tokyo Jon 12:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hi dallas all well i hope

sydney fg 12:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
omil, you ooze patience!
aud/usd and usd/jpy correlation has resurfaced this week and has presented some good short term contras in the aud. Plus, plenty of golf time!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I add my sell possie in usd/jpy for 111.17
anyone support me?

Tor Pumpkin 12:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
On holidays: All major banks still staff their major trading centres on holidays. The holidays mean only that you cannot settle a particular currency for that value date.

Dallas GEP 12:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Note about STOPS, prior to these RISK events you will have to widen stops especially if you beleive price action will revert back to the trend BEFORE the data release if price action goes aginst your possie. 1.7730 was a good stop on GBP/USD BUT with jobless claims being disappointing USD took a hit.

Just took USD/CAD long @ 1.3739. Pound shorts still in STOPS now @ 1.7760.

DB in Coopenhagan is closed.

Boca Raton 12:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP are you around?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Yes FG it has been futile for me the whole week waiting for some kind of break of this cursed range on the eur/usd. I guess I will patiently wait some more. I imagine it has been good for pip raiders as I have had at least 40 pips or more print on my positions this week at one time or another but I don’t usually get out with less than 80 pip moves on my side. GT

Bahrain KZ 12:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jobless claim or Mrs Ruth...GBP is going to last high...
GBP/JPY going to 202...

sydney fg 12:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw omil, aud not budging and dollar yen noodling around this trend support on the hrly. Seems we at a nexus for the dollar this week. Safest to watch imho.

Gen dk 12:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham Daniel 12:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 12:35 GMT May 20, 2004

The UK is Open

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:36 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
With that bit of news my eur/usd short intraday position is taken out with some pips in hand but I was hoping we could push through the barriers today. Well I guess I will have to wait some more as we stay in this range trading some more IMO. GL GT

sydney fg 12:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sorry gep - i see its ascension day as posted.
tempted to sell eur at 1.1950 if it gets there for a rub back to 1.1910

Boca Raton 12:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, where sis your stop loss on the LAYERED POUND shorts? If Deutsche Bank didn't put out a report, then how can they place orders?

Nottingham Daniel 12:34 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
A number of European centers are
closed today due to the Ascension Public Holiday

OK SZ 12:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
there is a large 120 option expire at 1400gmt today

Nottingham Daniel 12:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
[US jobless claims +12k to 345k] in May 15 wk, well above expectations and 2nd straight increase. No special factors, Lbr Dept analyst said. Employment survey wk comparison shows initial claims -11k vs. 356k level in April 17 wk. Four-wk moving avg of 336k a 42-mo low. Cont. claims in May 8 wk -23k to 2.943 mln.

Nottingham Daniel 12:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
US Initial Claims - +12k to 345k in May 15 wk,

Dallas GEP 12:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Maybe certain branches are closed. Hellll I dunno, I just get their reports and I haven't got any today. you guys would now better than me

sydney fg 12:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
the desks will be manned gep. What's the holiday anyway?

Dallas GEP 12:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Cashman, DB did not put out report today because supposedly they were closed for Ascension Day. Obviously I guess they still could have place orders

Toronto PC 12:25 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 12:17 GMT May 20,
gbp is stuk betwee 1.80&1.745

ny amc 12:24 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I just spoke with her???

Ldn Cashman 12:23 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP- DB pretty active in Ldn mate...

Dallas GEP 12:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
AMC, DB is closed today

Normandy Nick 12:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Watch out Gold!

Ldn Cashman 12:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
mark- Initial claims, continuing claims

Dallas GEP 12:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jobless Claims is the one out at 12:30 GMT

Normandy Nick 12:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Toronto PC 12:12 GMT May 20, 2004
Me neither. I focuse on sterling. Got kicked out during the last round but 1.7668 in sell order should do the trick this time on the downside. In any case, I've also have a buy order at 1.7760,

prague mark 12:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
do we have us data in 15 min? - TIA

Toronto PC 12:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 12:10 GMT May 20, 2004
u may be right , but i would not go long here

Toronto PC 12:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 12:07 GMT May 20, 2004
i thought some one said , at the end of the game the guy/gal with the most toys win lol

Normandy Nick 12:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Toronto PC 11:27 GMT May 20, 2004
Looks like the usd/jpy found a support here. confirmation 113.17 bid.

ln 12:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hasselt EV 12:02 GMT. you also need thick skin especially when you take a hit on a trade.

CT DB 12:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Toronto PC 12:02
Its a pleasure!
"i will still beat you at the end of the year" wtf is that? we racing?
GL 2 u

ny amc 12:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Deutche Bank................trying to find out...

Toronto PC 12:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 12:01 GMT May 20, 2004
sorry but what is DB , and dollars against what

Hasselt EV 12:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
thank you both, much appreciated. On the side, i do have a sense of humor :)

Toronto PC 12:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 11:58 GMT May 20, 2004
thanx for being so kind, i will still beat you at the end of the year :)

ny amc 12:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
a friend at DB says they are loading up on dollars????

ln 12:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hasselt EV 11:42 GMT. some good advise from toronto pc. i failed to look at technical analysis when i started and in turn lacked any sort of visual game plan. technical analysis will give you a better start and also read the book on mania's. its also about knowing when to follow the crowd and when to lead the pack. gl gt

CT DB 11:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
toronto pc 11:53,
Your point is well taken, we should engender an atmosphere of helpfulness.
Hasselt EV,
Torontos comments are right on the money, investing in TA tools is a gr8 investment. However, should you wish to persist in the art of trading rumours, then I suggest reading the forum, they appear from time to time.
GL & GT

toronto pc 11:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hasselt EV 11:42 GMT May 20, 2004
sorry for that comment on the forum from other member , i dont know how long you have been trading , but from some one who made a lot of money in forex , i suggest you invest your time in technical trading books, i recommend Jhon murphy the visual investor , that book changed my life , technical analysis not rumoers is your best bet , and that you can learn from books, discipline the other ingredient for success is hard to come by you have to learn to take a loss when your signal fails , good luck

Boca Raton 11:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:43 GMT May 20, 2004

Hi there. Do you have a stop in place for the LAYERED short Pound positions? TIA

CT DB 11:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hasselt EV 11:42,
at the expense of being unhelpful and sarcastic, perhaps you should try www.earlyrumours.com (LOL)

Gl & GT

Minnesota Mark 11:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:43 GMT May 20, 2004

Thank you, pulled the trigger at 1.7708...

pd cumino 11:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has a clue on the unnamend source commenting in DJ about "not all members will be Saturday" in Amsterdam OPEC meeting?TIA.

ln 11:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
imho $/yen is not a sale yet. wait and you might get a better level but cant see it sharply lower. risk/reward favours staying out just yet.

Dallas GEP 11:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Mark, yes it is, I mentioned upside risk is 1.7730

Hasselt EV 11:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi everybody, i'm new to this forum and really enjoying it. Could somebody please help me with websites where i can find rumors before a news/data release......thank you

sgp sp 11:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thank you nottingham, I had requested for your e-mail address from Jay.

gt2 u:)

Stockholm za 11:36 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo ........
Shalom, Let`s welcome those few magic words then !
Happy trades.....

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 11:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Shalom, Stokholm! IMHO few magic words - and gates for EUR to down is open...

Initial claims < 325 000 IMHO

Bon pips and figures!

Toronto PC 11:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
any one into silver AUG?

GVI john 11:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.1935…$/yen 113.05
DJIA +1 pts… 10-yr 4.77%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


See GVI for TEXT

Toronto PC 11:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 10:44 GMT May 20, 2004
i agree , u see jpy has broken the down trend line down from 136 , and it is retesting it ( as a support now ) at 112.90, the normally this should be a buy sign , but of 2 problems: the neck line of the huge head and shoulder ( neck line 115) , th eother problem is the over bought on ossilators

Stockholm za 11:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... €/$ .. At the moment....
Back on a test of the critical down side gateway...
with ~1,1860 band on key
and ~1,1810 & 1,1770 given
top side pivot on ~1,1985

True range :- ~(1,2220 <> 1,1650)
Happy trades....

Nottingham 11:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 11:07 GMT

yesterday we got our first close below it for some time...a secondary close below it will provide more evidence that the recent uptrend has faltered and we can begin using the 10 day sma as a guide...entries at/towards the ma with stops a little on the other side can be considered a good strategy...re email, go for it...gl gt

Bahrain KZ 11:18 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks It's too late...I might just keep it then short it from your figure or 201.90...Thanks...Cheers

Toronto PC 11:14 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain KZ 11:10 GMT May 20, 2004
i think gbpjpy is going down to 191 , i would not buy her

Mtl JP 11:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Can CPI
In April, consumers paid 1.6% more for the goods and services in the Consumer Price Index basket than they did in April last year, compared with a 0.7% rise in March. However, April's advance marked a return to rates prevalent during the last three months of 2003.

Bahrain KZ 11:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
All JPY Crosses are buy here?...$$$

Oz 11:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Anyone with the CAD CPI numbers?

sgp sp 11:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good morning nottingham,

I had watched yesterday's usd/cad's close below ma 10....if today close fig is the same....would it fit in with ur style?

Thanks, and gt 2 u

P/S : would u mind if I ask Jay for ur e-mail pls?

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 11:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OPEC president wants to hike oil supply, see price in 22-28 usd range - CNBC lol!!

PAR 11:06 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ln/ go long GBP since the FTSE is oil correlated.

Nottingham 11:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Toront PC 10:55 GMT

3690/60 3615/00 3550 3510/00 3440/20...for resistance use 10 day sma which has worked well as a flexible trendline...keep it simple...gl gt

Minnesota Mark 10:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP - GBP hit 1.7719 - Your downside outlook staying the same?

shanghai bc 10:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

LDN 10:13 -- We have a good market here..For me,Aud/Usd.72+ in coming weeks first..Hope they bet lots of money too..

Toront PC 10:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:50 GMT May 20, 2004
thanx for the replay ., i agree , do you think support is aroud 1.36 or 1.35

ln 10:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
PAR 10:50 GMT. and how does your comment help me make money on fx? why dont you join a chat group on bush or something...

Nottingham 10:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Toront PC 10:41 GMT

cable down euro down aussie also down a bit but uscad only manages a measly rebound...whythis outperformance? Market has been massively short the canadian currency and this will need to be adjusted...until that time the usdcad is vulnerable to further correction and at the very least the cad will outperform...at the end of the day it is about positioning...gl gt

PAR 10:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
In one aspect Bush jr. did better than his daddy. He managed to bring oil prices to a new all time high to stimulate the Texan economy.

Normandy Nick 10:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I see a support on usd/jpy at 112.95 bid, a clear break would be a worry for my long trade on dollar...

Toront PC 10:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
anny one with views on CAD , is the correction over or are we going higher to 1.42

Tokyo Jon 10:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
eurusd, would be good buy above 1.1945 but this is my opinion, not my system, the computer has gone to sleep and I dont want to move, its been a lazy night.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf// ok. I hope that tonight NY will make you happy.

I see the eur/jpy running towards the other side of the pennant at around 128 but might take time for that.

This week close on eur/jpy should be closely watched.

london phil 10:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy has touched the 200 line 4 times in 4 days and bounced 100-200 pips so could be a buy if you beleive there could be a 5th bounce

sarasota jf 10:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ab - it has been an exceptionally good day today - i have no view now - my charts are fogging up and all the stops are done ! - now i take my own advice and wait on next opportunity - gt today

Bahrain KZ 10:32 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Jpy and GBP/JPY are close to my buy levels...few messages below...anyone cares to buy?
Good luck...I am doing it..

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf// seems the stop of eur/jpy is moved.

Tokyo Jon 10:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd(1.7688), this morning my system indicated downward pressure and should see 1.7749. now we are past this, the pressure remained rangebound at 1.7668 which had a 34% probability level for today. 1.7611 is all down(100%) if seen, but the probability level is only 14%.

My odds now are for a slight retrace, if we can trade and hold above 1.1791 then a return back to 1.7777 is most probable.
I am in favour of buying on dips, along with gbpjpy.

london phil 10:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
gbp jpy sitting on that heavily fortified 200 line if it goes could get interesting

Bahrain KZ 10:24 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jay...Just sent an email for you...if you could comments..Please!!
Thanks and cheers...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nk, I think it's time for european curr. to give some gains back to asian curr.

Gold Coast martin 10:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN....finally the institutions are seeing the light with the AUD..but as usual they missed the opportunity already to make money for themselves and their clients...

'Ldn 10:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank fall in AUD, NZD, GBP and JPY all show the period of risk aversion is still not over. Stabilization in equity markets and credit spreads are needed before carry trades begin to trend higher once again ABN Amro AUD/USD has pulled lower again after probing 0.7000 on Wed, and the medium-term trend for AUD is down, . The RBA's bulletin was the highlight overnight and is AUD-negative, supporting ABN's 3-mo forecast of 0.6500 and short AUD/USD position initiated at 0.6917 reuters news.

Gen dk 10:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Normandy Nick 10:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I removed my sell order on pound at 1.7645. Went short at 1.7686 instead, stop 1.7715

saloniko 2004 nk 10:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab

saloniko 2004 nk 09:29 GMT May 18, 2004
ln 09:25 GMT May 18, 2004


Close Euro longs..and wait ReBuy Lower..

BOD right now USD/CHF for target above 1.30+

nk

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, Revdax, do u have current c9 and Macau index? TIA.

Dallas GEP 10:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Pound DOWNSIDE targets: 1.7635, 1.7615, 1.7584 THEN first decent support is around 1.7480. Current upside risk is 1.7700-1.7710 and 1.7730

Hong Kong Qindex 09:59 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nk, are u still in the chf longs?

Gen dk 09:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko 2004 nk 09:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Cold Toast martin ..

Why u bother of my posts?..cos they are free?


nk


Kaunas DP 09:49 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
any silver players to bet we will have another leg up this week...say 6.2 for extream - TIA

Normandy Nick 09:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 09:43 GMT May 20, 2004
That's the better news of the day for me! thanx. I'll do the necessary straight away!

sydney fg 09:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nick, back up now. chk ur orders and posi. Cancelled some odas over the phobe but they were still loaded up in the system and needed cancelling electronically.

Bahrain KZ 09:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Day Traders Levels...Good Luck All
Currecny Short Long Short Cover Long Cover
EURUSD 1.2136 1.1878 1.2113 1.1885
USDJPY 113.89 112.21 113.85 112.31
GBPUSD 1.8025 1.7635 1.7988 1.7647
USDCHF 1.2894 1.2659 1.2890 1.2673
EURCHF 1.5403 1.5281 1.5395 1.5283
AUDUSD 0.7039 0.6857 0.7024 0.6863
USDCAD 1.3858 1.3648 1.3854 1.3660
NZDUSD 0.6129 0.5988 0.6119 0.5992
EURGBP 0.6771 0.6698 0.6770 0.6702
EURJPY 136.90 134.61 136.75 134.66
GBPJPY 203.49 199.49 203.22 199.58
CHFJPY 89.19 87.71 89.09 87.74
GBPCHF 2.2914 2.2620 2.2897 2.2626
EURAUD 1.7384 1.7130 1.7379 1.7144
EURCAD 1.6656 1.6379 1.6636 1.6384
AUDCAD 0.9659 0.9466 0.9645 0.9471
AUDJPY 79.42 77.80 79.31 77.84

Crete kola 09:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
saloniko kmengerti aja aau di tutupt api kahu?

Normandy Nick 09:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:26 GMT May 20, 2004
Hi GEP! your relevance freaks me out lol! the scenario worked perfectly and the recent move makes me believe you've got the point here as well.My system is out of order so I hope my sell order at 1.7645 will be filled "quick done, well done" for a nice fall. GL/GT

Charlotte Stafilo 09:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
thnks

Gen dk 09:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast martin 09:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
SALINIKO....the greeks are synonymous with picking bottoms!!.lol....g/l g/t

Tokyo Jon 09:32 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte Stafilo 09:05, be with you in a minute

Wales PM 09:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
Thanks very much GL

Tokyo Jon 09:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Wales PM 09:06, search the archives looking for me, you should see a link on one of the results.
cheers

Kaunas DP 09:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:26 GMT
thank u brother...to the point for consideration...GL

saloniko 2004 nk 09:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Crete kola 09:05 GMT May 20, 2004

Only my teacher know that always i want try found Tops and Bottoms..

Who said it to u?
nk

Dallas GEP 09:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The pound is on the steps of a small collapse. This is what I posted earlier. I have taken some more shorts from 1.7660. Pound could short ANOTHER 100 pips THIS session.

Dallas GEP 00:12 GMT May 20, 2004
OK let me tell you what NICK is looking at. IMO the most important indicatois the MACD. Look at 1 hour chart on GBP/USD on MAY 11th, that's when the MACD bottomed out and THEN it LONGED over 250 pips. A similiar situation is setting up now EXCEPT it is a SHORT (see MACD topping out) I think however we may see 1.7850-70 first BUT a BIG short potential IS developing

Dallas

sarasota jf 09:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - the remaining stops centre on euryen sub 135.00 - however after getting hurt once not alot of people are keen to be short here at the moment - gt

Kaunas DP 09:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
the risk we face - US data...however, it might be not bad idea to grab some eur for Friday usd selloff...GL/GT

Gen dk 09:19 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BEIRUT MK 09:15 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
close long usdchf at 1.2885
close short eurjpy at 135.29

now long eurusd at 1.1930 stop 1.1880

eurusd forming a bull flag on 4hr-chart
as long as 1.1885 no broken

Gen dk 09:09 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wales PM 09:06 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
Regarding your last but one posting (I think) I am sorry but I dont know where to look!! Can you help? GL

Crete kola 09:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
saloniko Perlu aja aau dibiarin di tutup?? why if want to pick the absolute bottom for 1.3888? Kali mera!

sydney fg 09:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nick netdania dot com

Charlotte Stafilo 09:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning all

jon:
what will be a good buy enty lvl for eur$?

Minnesota Mark 09:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
can't type on this stupid small keyboard.. 1.7653 sheese should quit trying to be fast.

Minnesota Mark 09:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Nick- Still holding same range - just touched 1.7650 back up to 1.7553

Normandy Nick 09:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
oh no, actually, I know;...

Normandy Nick 09:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Is there anyone who knows where I can't find real time prices???

Normandy Nick 09:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 08:55 GMT May 20, 2004
yep....censored...I called them and they don't when it will be fixed so the situation is very unconfortable..I can't even remove my pending orders.. b'l'ody 'h"elll !!!!

Minnesota Mark 08:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
error... downside was 1.7652 sorry

Minnesota Mark 08:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
last 20 minutes ranged from 1.7685-1.7682 now 1.7658

Jkt diablo 08:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm waiting to long GBP/USD at 1.7620/30 (sl: 1.7600, tp: 1.7850). Is this a good or bad idea? Do you think I'll have the chance?

Thanks in advance for the inputs.

sydney fg 08:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nick, c.m.c?
down at the mom here

Normandy Nick 08:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
well....I have a problem....

Minnesota Mark 08:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
showing 1.7659 now

saloniko 2004 nk 08:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

If We count that a lot of stops are below 1.17 Euro might make another DIP through 1.17 B4 strongly fly again higher..


Have a nice day..! frome Sunny Saloniko land!

nk

Normandy Nick 08:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The calm before the hurricane......that's very weird, not a single exchange in 20 minutes....

Tokyo Jon 08:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
eurusd has hit my rangebound mark at 1.1916 but should still see lower, not by much though. which was posted around 23gmt

Bloemfontein SA new bie 08:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Its the same on my platform just one or two ticks

Tokyo Jon 08:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hello all, the eurusd has come down nicely, you can see my levels at anytime. you know where to look.

I will have an update on gbpuusd for those interested shortly.
cheers GL and GT

Normandy Nick 08:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bloemfontein SA new bie 08:40 GMT May 20, 2004
Thank you. That's what I have as well, but usd/chf hasn't moved of a single tick since 15 minutes...do you confirm on your platform? thanx

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 08:42 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
anyone here supprt me sell more in usd/jpy now to get 112.35 ?

Minnesota Mark 08:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
1.7678

Bloemfontein SA new bie 08:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
1.7678

Normandy Nick 08:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Is it very quiet or do I have a problem with my platform? what price do you have for gbp/usd please? thank you....

athens kos44 08:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
To Moscow

Thanks a lot

PAR 08:32 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Y/Y retail sales stronger than expected. 12th consecutif rise in retail sales.

prague mark 08:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
do we have data or it is in 1h

Nottingham Daniel 08:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
UK April retail sales figures - +0.3% On Mo, +6.0% YY

PAR 08:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Risk for UK retail sales is for a much stronger than consensus figure based on anecdotal evidence.

Normandy Nick 08:14 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Squared usd/chf at 1.2875 offer. Complet stop at 1.2855

PAR 08:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Strength of UK consumer sector, low UK interest rates,timing of Easter,good wheather and to a lesser extent massif inflows of Russian and Far Eastern money in UK football teams should lead to unbelievable strong UK retail sales .

Normandy Nick 08:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I said a buy order at 1.7695 but we have almost reach this price before the datas. So better put this order above 1.7710

BEIRUT MK 08:07 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
usdchf: long from 1.2835 move stop to 1.2780
eurjpy: short now at 135.38 target 133

Moskow 08:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
To athens:
I think this is a normal price for data

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jobless no.?

I think the mkt is more nervous on OPEC meeting rather.

sgp sp 07:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Thank u Dr Q......

athens kos44 07:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good morning friends. Please can anybody indicate me a site for forex intraday data in a normal price.

Also for the eurusd i think that a good support is the 1.1880 for close short positions.
Thanks and happy trading

Hong Kong Qindex 07:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 07:34 GMT - Good afternoon! EUR/JPY : It looks okay so far.

Normandy Nick 07:44 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
it looks like the market is pessimistic about the retail sales. However, a buy order at 1.7695 for 1.7740/50 could feed an eventual surprise. By "contagion", this could push back usd/chf on its 50 ema 5 min chart. I'll square my position around that point , stop 10 pips below.

Tartu kuues 07:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 06:26 GMT - Hello viies, hope u r doing fine
Again, i must say i agree with you lower low and lower high, smells like more down, but on the other hand all this rate hike hope talk had loosing shine, so if we dont get any support from datas (better jobless claims) then i see it above 1,2 again
GL & GT

london 07:41 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
193/195 GBP/JPY is a buy for 208, over 209->239

london 07:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
.6650/6700 EUR/GBP is a buy for .6900->7200

Nottingham Daniel 07:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Sorry should read 0.4%

london 07:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
132/34 EUR/JPY is a buy for 140, over 141->160

sgp sp 07:34 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good Afternoon Dr Q, ab

I still have the E/J levels u posted on 18th May...still valid?

ab, c u tonight. :)


GL 2 both of u

Nottingham Daniel 07:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
UK April retail sales figures are due at 08:30gmt - if better then 0.4$ may cause a rise !

Normandy Nick 07:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
MSC EQWIS 07:28 GMT May 20, 2004
No, I don't overtrade. My oders go from A to B then B to C, 10% of my equity, a golden rule! When I write "new order" I mean the previous target got touched and a new enter point is ready. GL/GT

Nottingham Daniel 07:32 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
(CABLE) Also weighing on the rate is an OEF/Cluttons report predicting a 22% chance of a UK housing market crash in 2005 (The Times).

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sp, see ya tonight and u can tell me about it....

That aud/nzd.... !

london 07:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
1.70/72 EUR/AUD is a buy for for 1.85

MSC EQWIS 07:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 07:02
Isit adding to a previous position?

Ldn 07:25 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Weak Asian stock markets and the ongoing rise of world oil prices overnight played a leading role in pushing the Australian dollar into retreat Thursday, dealers said.
Australian government bond prices were subdued over the day taking some support from the bearish signals now coming from regional equities trading. It would be wrong to suggest that a strong base was now in place for the Australian dollar
Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac said the Australian dollar is vulnerable near-term with enthusiastic selling greeting every effort to push it higher.
Technically, the Aussie "looks stretched," he said, pointing to US$0.6770 as a major chart point for the currency.
The level is the one-third Fibonacci retracement point of the currency's rally from a record low of US$0.0.4775 in April 2001 through to a peak of US$0.8008 in February this year.
A break lower would invite a move toward US$0.6400, Rennie said. "You are going to be in a situation where a lot of the longer term real money will be thinking about kicking out positions," Rennie said.
APP

Hong Kong Qindex 07:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

sgp sp 07:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon ab,

Have a small aud/usd limit long at 6880....will add on at lower levels if seen.

gt 2 u

p/s aud/nzd, have a limit long at 1.1450....but removed it this morning...long story....if u put in an appearance today, u might get the story from the horse's mouth. :)

Brisbane L 07:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD Asian CB Selling

hong kong nt 07:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro -- 1.190 is a buy for today...

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
cad is so quiet.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, 1st order aud buy .6885 if 69 past thru. if not .6905 with 3 touches tolerance.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:10 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, remmeber test of faith?

think we should enter gold in layers.

Normandy Nick 07:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
new buy order on usd/chf

Normandy Nick 07:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
new sell order on pound at 1.7645, a return on the 50 ema , 5 minutes chart could happen but it seems some stops got burst so I think gbp/usd is definitively back in the bears cave....

Moskow 06:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
the best intraday forex history is here

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
oic......

the swings were the tail of all the s/l washing activities.

sarasota jf 06:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ab - well dr q has been right but his levels not exctly accurate but thats as u say increase in volatility- everyday its trigger the s/l and tody is no exception to recent pattern

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
closed my aud/jpy from 78.80 at 78.48....

leave first otherwise, bloody.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf, the volatility of the eur/jpy gets horrible recently.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I think I must believe for sell usd/jpy..will down so far.
I add my sell possie.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:49 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf, how about chf/jpy? same fate?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 06:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
yes.. usd/jpy is good. got nice profit

sarasota jf 06:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ab eur euryen gbp gbpyen - i thnk all stabilise n grind up back up - imo

Brisbane L 06:45 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Aus looks like it wants to go below the figure aiming for 6880 area , anyone game to sell it here?

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:43 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf, u mean eur back up soon? TIA.

Eilat Dolphin 06:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
The only explanation I have for the last hours 100 + Ps of the $ is that the market scared of the US Initial Jobs later today.

Since we have reached a 50% retracement on the E/$ last leg, stabilisation, at least, should be in by now.

sarasota jf 06:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
profit taking will kick in soon - this move was not that unexpected - imo gl

Cairo mdr 06:34 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
i exited my euro short from 2010 at 1924 although i think we can see 1870-60 printed soon today
gl>

Normandy Nick 06:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
high weakness confirmation on pound if it prints 1.7680 within this hour. Opening the next hour below 1.7685 would also be a good sign for the bears.

Normandy Nick 06:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
chf pointing 1.2940 , confirmation at 1.2920

Tallinn viies 06:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
after euro moved lower than prevoius days low I would expect it to try even lower.
range still there 1,22-1,18

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:21 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Critical support coming up for eur/usd in the 1.1890-1.1900 area IMO.

wisconsin tim 06:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
on that reversal loss out and done gl/gt all

Normandy Nick 06:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi, usd/chf gave a buy signal to get 1.2890 since it clearly passed through 1.2850, confirmation at 1.2870.
I got a new sell order on pound at 1.7715 for 1.7655

wisconsin tim 05:57 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
tp on short eur/yen now long

OK SZ 05:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
also the usd/chf is having a tough time getting thru the 12850 level at this time..keep an eye on that

OK SZ 05:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
selling below 30 is probably a good idea, think there might be some strong bids there though..if we can break 30 hear there is some stop at 20

sydney balmain 05:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hi guys any1 looking to sell a break eur/usd below 1.1930?

wisconsin tim 05:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/yen if clear this 135.80 area setting stops to 136.10 lowering tp 135.20

if not taking profit on move back to ~135.95

ICT ML 05:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
AB....in my stuff, $Y is on a critical bounce point today. If it closes red today, then the move from 103 is probably over. But I think it bounces myself.

Eilat Dolphin 05:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dan-k, 02:27/ There is only one good explanation why the market systematically goes against any position we take: a wide world conspiracy that surely include Bush, Saddam, Cofee A and Putin. They feed banks and TVs ten minutes old real time quotes, but only take home 10% of the profit as they have a lot of mouthes to feed.
As for Mr Chirak, I am not so sure... but since he pays his airlines ticket in cash...

wisconsin tim 05:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
well rode this eur/yen wave like a roller coaster my last position:

sold eur/yen 136.20 sl 136.45 tp 135.40

going to bed later all

gl/gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
did my eyes sth wrong on yen??

Bahrain KZ 05:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USd is a sell from 1.2020 anytime for next week..
to cover at 1.1750

Mumbai Jay 05:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q.. Good day to you.. What do you think of EURJPY? Does it look like having finished the downward correction? TIA

Rye, NY et 05:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 01:27 GMT May 20, 2004
Short EUR/USD 1.2008;cut 1.2065;take 1.1890

Adjust: Stop to B/E; t/p to 1.1940

Brisbane L 05:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Reserve Bank of Australia net-sold A$109 million in forex market in April

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I see you have a dog and Oil Man has a cat I am going to have to get me a dolphin or some other pet to see if we can get out of this decaying range we are in for eur/usd LOL. Not much time lately for me but I am hanging in there waiting for any break of this range. I agree that the crosses are dictating this range for now and the rumored DNT option expiring NY time should loosen the death grip that this pair is in IMHO. So we are back in the fishing hole once more buddy and I hope you are doing well too. GL GT

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:54 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sp, I hope u remembered to put a limit to buy aud/nzd 1.1450.....

st. pete islander 04:53 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening, OMIL .... Hope you are well. Euro and others have been strange. Old mechanical 'Bird Dog' hasn't barked much this week. The crosses have been in control it seems to me. Waiting until He points, barks, or jumps up on the desk and peez. lol

Brisbane L 04:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
KL KL problem is when Banks post that kind of report you have to wonder if they are talking their book , what you say is true about NAB which make you even more cautious - but its makes good reading

Gold Coast martin 04:48 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
KL...the nab rogue trader contrarian strategy was correct...their timeframe was wrong..."time decay" beat them...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
JF good post confidence is a big part of the psychology you need to keep your focus. That is why they say that emotion kills most traders in the market. This week is frustrating for me because I look for the big moves on eur/usd and I have to keep trying and stay in focus. Confidence is the X factor in the equation. I have a short intraday position for eur/usd pair looking to move stops under the support level 1.1920-30 IMO. GL GT

Saihat 04:38 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
LIMIT--- may work

buy gbp at 1.7638...and 1.7624.....stop at 1.7605

Moscow Mishanya 04:37 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
While euryen stays above 135 eurusd worth to buy.

KL KL 04:36 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 04:30 GMT May 20, 2004, ..interesting NAB... if those "rouge traders" had been given the opportunity to sit out their position....NAB could be 1.5 Billion ahead???...he he he goes to show no one knows!!

wisconsin tim 04:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/YEN

+25 up
+25 down

go for 3 in a row up?

sarasota jf 04:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
i posted this on gvi at beginning of asian session

sarasota jf 23:16 GMT May 19, 2004
sfx hearing asia cb pulled back orders on top to sell eurusd see if you hear the same when u get in - think its encouraging people to sit long initially so we just see if we regain 1.2010 if not we may see some disapointment selling - gl

this is what is occuring now - stops at 1.1920 fwiw gl

Brisbane L 04:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Next Move on AUD Unclear selling-rallies mentality remains in play and renewed downside risk can't be discounted; 0.6800 base may prove resilient but "don't put your house on it." There are fewer reasons to buy AUD these days, but aren't screaming reasons to sell it either
senior strategist NAB
rts.

KL KL 04:29 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
$ strength....which baddie got killed...afgan or iraq....??? this is scary times in ccy....just play the trend..imho

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:28 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jf, know what happened on eur?

Bk A 04:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
How do you think about Cable?

UB GG 04:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
What's happening in the market? EUR down 1.1950 and more ...

beijing road 04:05 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jon: thanks.

OK SZ 03:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
well good evening all..just stopped in after a night of baseball with my son..euro looks like a fall but not sure if she will fall below the 70 support level or not..

jf, your post are intelligent and excellent reading..I for onw appreciate them very much. I learn a lot from you successful traders in here..gl, gt all

sarasota jf 03:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 02:27 GMT May 20, 2004
first you need to decide which timeframe you want to trade and second this may help you - one of the most successful traders i have ever seen says this about the market and how he keeps such a positive trading mentaility - if he thinks usdyen goes up as you do and the market comes off 30-40 points he says to himself how lucky am i that the market is giving me free money this is great i love trading, i can get more on and make more money - this style of confidence breeds success - if the market shows him he is wrong in his view or something changes (some new factor enters the market for example) he reverses his position makes his money back -takes a day or two off and looks for next opportunity (this too is a lesson you dont need to trade everyday), controlled confidence and not concern - something to think abt - gl

Van jv 03:46 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 05:17///Good Day ////Today’s gold move caught me by surprise…seems change in mood…and weaker USD/JPY + flight to quality??….Re your
“Market is still selling Asian currencies for European currencies.”. ……my feeling is that this panic will last for a few more months dragging down Gold to 370-350 region.””
I did not expect that it could turn into such a long affair or even a panic …..….but why Gold might be dragged down …?? It may be that China’s some 2% GDP decline dragging down all metals and most commodities ??

Ldn 03:40 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Support Around 0.6950 gives Way, Corporate Selling
IFR headline

LAX-LGB SNP 03:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Bel Air KK 02:08 GMT May 20, 2004
thanks a lot ... really appreciate it

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 03:19 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sorry 11080

wisconsin tim 03:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
let it run to your risk point or cut it early ... personally i allow 35+ pips in the jpy pairs

i had a bad buy entry in eur/aud on sunday nite @ 1.7232 and kept adjusting stops down and survived the drop to 1.7270's then when it went up to 42 for +10 i thought i was lucky getting out there and went flat

woke up monday morning and saw the 400+ positive move and was a little illing but that could easily of been 400-.

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 03:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
knox dont worry , just place tight s/l and limit 10310

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 03:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
well ill stop at 113.72 and limit out at 113.20 and get some shut eye
maby thats the best thing

atlanta 03:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dan K don't feel to bad, I'm in @ 113.03. Had 20 pips early on & didn't take it. I'm long @113.03. Anyone, will it get higher in the short term?

ny amc 03:01 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
any chance we see eur/usd at 1.1900-10 tonight ?

wisconsin tim 03:00 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
knox - Occam's Razor

For example, through two data points in a diagram you can always draw a straight line, and induce that all further observations will lie on that line. However, you could also draw an infinite variety of the most complicated curves passing through those same two points, and these curves would fit the empirical data just as well. Only Occam's razor would in this case guide you in choosing the "straight" (i.e. linear) relation as best candidate model. A similar reasoning can be made for n data points lying in any kind of distribution

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 02:58 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
knox , start using bigger frames , dailies are the best

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 02:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
i have a question, when i enter a trade why does it alwayse go against me, if i flip short it will go long, and if i go long it will go short, every time, u should all listen to me and my entrys and go the opposite way, i just want ten percent

Brisbane L 02:18 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo dealer say that Speculator led selling of EUR/JPY helping to push down EUR/USD around 20 pips to 1.1988

Brisbane L 02:16 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
ny amc sorry should have put -Option exiries today in NY session approx 14 gmt.

ny amc 02:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
brisbane...............any chance of explaining that post? i'm clueless

Brisbane L 02:11 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
That large EUR1.17-1.22DNT is expected today in NY
also Euro others
EUR 1.1950
EUR 1.1725
EUR 1.1675 KO
E/JPY 127 (lge
E/JPY 135 (lge

Bel Air KK 02:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Hey SNP, I will repsond to yr email later this week. Cheers and good trading.

Tokyo Jon 02:02 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 00:26 cetainly, jonnyt6 at hotmail dot com

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:56 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
i am looking for a turn here, however im also doing what every trader has done at one time or another , hope wish and pray
lol, gl gt

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
thank you, however im already long = lol 113.10 terrible terrible entry

clonakilty glenn 01:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Dan - not an easy call just now - I'd hold out for 113.50 for shorts, or 112.30 for longs

Saihat 01:50 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
sell..136.60----stop136.80...make stop136.90

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:47 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
so is the usd jpy a short or a long from here?

Saihat 01:39 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy
sell..136.60----stop136.80
buy134.40---stop134.25

Gen dk 01:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane 01:35 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Australian New Auto Sales -1.9% In Apr Vs Mar

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:34 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
jpy hummm confusing

ny amc 01:33 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
anyone looking at eur/jpy ? any thoughts ? thanks

Saihat 01:30 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
or may wait till

1.8012 and 1.8028....stop 1.8044

Rye, NY et 01:27 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.2008;cut 1.2065;take 1.1890

Saihat 01:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
TRY- demo

sell gbpusd 1.7846 ....stop1.7867

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 00:31 GMT May 20, 2004
Sorry I haven’t had much time lately and my mailbox was full try now.

Jkt diablo 00:55 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 00:24 GMT May 20, 2004
Whatever happens, I don't think we could see a break of 1.7860 without taking a deep breath first.

I couldn't agree more. Cable's having a hard time to break 1.7850/60 resistance yesterday. However if the UK retail sales data today is good, it's possible for cable to fly over to 1.7900 -> 1.7950 -> 1.8020.

Ltn th 00:52 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep & Nick// I am finding your discussion very interesting. Normally I would pay more heed to longer timescale MACD's (2,4,6& 8 hr in the case of swissy and euro), but GBP and particularly how carry trades involving it are handled by the banks seem to make these less relevant. On the 2 hr chart, do you see any relevance of the 27th april scenario to current situation? I guess I'm asking, how likely a 100 pip jump may still be before a major decline?
Activities by asian investors of all types seem to argue against much more headroom, although I keep remembering the fact that a lot of these trusts/banks may have head or major branch offices in UK and flexible hedging policies.

LAX-LGB SNP 00:31 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - trust all's well
my mail bounced back off your netzero address ?

beijing road 00:26 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Jon : Very valuable work! May I contact you via email or MSN plz? Thanks.

Normandy Nick 00:24 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Yes GEP, a re-test of 1.7850/60 makes part of my plan. I just worry about the BOE that will certainly hike the rates. Nonetheless, I think it's already included in the price. Today, it was very laborious to get 1.7850 and this price has been badly rejected (spike on hourly chart). Whatever happens, I don't think we could see a break of 1.7860 without taking a deep breath first.

Tokyo Jon 00:22 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY is looking at range bound trade, probably 112.11 to 113.60, the pivot is 112.91
I am expecting a buy on fips strategy today and have a 100% chance of seeing 113.30. Alot of indications today to range bound trade is being indicated by my system. EURUSD data has been updated, you all know where.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:20 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
hummm usd jpy breaking down below 113

houston st 00:17 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   

atlanta 00:13 GMT - chances are it was up on Japanese fixing demand..we'll see..gt/gl.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:14 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
I am still fishing for the a big move on eur/usd pair. I got out of my long position and looking to get in after the support is taken out around 1.1970-60 area. GL GT

atlanta 00:13 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY seems to be falling. Is this temp or an indication of direction change. Any thoughts out there? Could it be a slight retracement before th next level?

Dallas GEP 00:12 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
OK let me tell you what NICK is looking at. IMO the most important indicatois the MACD. Look at 1 hour chart on GBP/USD on MAY 11th, that's when the MACD bottomed out and THEN it LONGED over 250 pips. A similiar situation is setting up now EXCEPT it is a SHORT (see MACD topping out) I think however we may see 1.7850-70 first BUT a BIG short potential IS developing

Normandy Nick 00:08 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf managed to open above 1.2795 bid and should not print 1.2785 if it's really heading north. I've increased my stop on gbp/usd above the high of yesterday.A break of this level will be a significant call for the bulls to get 1.80 IMO

Brisbane L 00:04 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei 225 Stock Average Opens Dn 55ps Pts got to see if the asia markets can continue rally today.

Bermy Flip 00:03 GMT May 20, 2004 Reply   
$/Yen movin on up; back to 114+ any ?

 




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