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Forex Forum Archive for 05/23/2004

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Normandy Nick 23:58 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:46 GMT May 23, 2004
I'm very carefull about the long term trade but I take a good note of your analysis. 117 by the 31th. This turn I would be very impressed if you're right. Even 115 would still be a brilliant call for me. GL/GT

Ltn th 23:52 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks John. Still I cant help thinking that maybee that in itself is significant??? I just found a reuters report. ID=5228736

Normandy Nick 23:51 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
As I posted earlier, gbp/usd touched the upside of its downtrend canal. Many players are going to be tented to sell here. I have a sell order ready at 1.7847 to get 1.7780

ps 23:49 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
how many ar you involve

Lahore FM 23:46 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Nick,that 117.00 target for 31st may is a most serious analyis.I am already impressed by ur posts here and i think ur anaylysis quite regularly concurs with mine and so does the method of analysis possibly.

Provo John 23:45 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
th, Nothing of signifcance was said.

Tokyo Jon 23:42 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Taro, ok will do.

Ltn th 23:42 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have details on Snow's NY speech?

Montréal Taro 23:39 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
I can't get to the lounge. Keep me inform, you know my email. And when you are ready for the test, let me know.

Normandy Nick 23:39 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:32 GMT May 23, 2004
An other thing that has motivated my decision is that the pair managed to open above the top of the week of the 11th of march. If that level holds, then buy here is a smoky juicy long trade to make, at least, a double top.

Tokyo Jon 23:33 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
hello all, I have updated, you know where the details are, or search the archives.

eurusd(1.997) upward move expected today(57% probable), not a good figure but still 1.2021 should well be seen, at which point the system indicates rangebound trade. A high of 1.2097 is possible
usdjpy(112.40) upward move expected today(64% probable), a reasonable percentage if the markets can reach 113.26(79%) then a high of 11384 is possible.
usdchf(1.2804) downward move expected today(62% probable), 1.2758 should well be seen(65%) then setting a low of around 1.700
gbpusd(1.7879) downward move expected today(67% probable), 1.7706 should cap any downward move, but watch resistance at 1.7745

Lahore FM 23:32 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
RIGHT ON THE DOT! Nick,I have a very unusual chart for USD/JPY,with a study of my own deduction which says USD/JPY may well be at 117.00 on 31st MAY.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:32 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
MAX go to this link from there go to marketplace and you will find a bunch of services offered by this website and most of them will give a free time limit to try them out before you use them. That is fair enough in my book. If you stick around here long enough you will also learn that occasionally we have them drop by and give their insight on what is happening too. Qindex for one visits the most frequently here and helps others as well. Hope that helps.

OK SZ 23:30 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
well I sold the euro at 120..let's see where she, gt

Normandy Nick 23:28 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM 23:17 GMT May 23, 2004
Yes. Now, it must open the new hour above 112.45 to confirm a certain strengh. But after five consecutive days of fall and a rebound on a key level, I think that 113/112.90 is a reasonnable target.

new york max 23:21 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

i'm kinda new here ..please elborate. when you say HERE ,you mean this site 's ad buttons....where do i find it ...

Lahore FM 23:17 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick,fine timing on that yen trade.

Lahore FM 23:15 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanx Limey.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:14 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
new york max 23:08 GMT May 23, 2004
Why don't you try the services offered here you can't loose a thing by trying them out. Did I mentioned they are free to try out. Go ahead press the button and see for yourself. GL GT

Brisbane L 23:14 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Detroit Limey and thats the truth - from a Pom

Detroit Limey 23:11 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:53 GMT May 23, 2004
Its political, the politicians have been trying for a long time to change over to the euro currency but the overwelming majority of the voters do not want the change, two things you cannot mess with are the British "pint" measure and the "pound" currency and the politicians know that.

new york max 23:08 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Dear Global View pros.
i 'm a first time user of this forum and had know idea that mentioning a company's website here is deemed advertising; even if it's in the context of an the future it won't happen again..

However i WAS in fact searching for a good service. If any one can email me personally ([email protected]) with information i'd be thankful.......again i apologize!!!!

Wellington 22:53 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD – Recovering as Forecast

The Euro’s forecasted recovery is developing well and with support now at 1.1980/1.1930, looking for a strong advance onto 1.2250 over coming days, enroute to 1.2450.

To receive TRL's Chart Analysis, Email: [email protected]

Gen dk 22:33 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Normandy Nick 22:28 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
! I did take a decision on usd/jpy actually! bought at 112.23 square 111.80 stop 111.60, the macd shows a positive divergence and it's oversold. so, 112.50 makes sense obviously and a bigger retracement is likely to happen.

Lahore FM 22:27 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Today means 24th may GMT.

Lahore FM 22:19 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
OMIL,if by 8 gmt today euro is below 1.1973 and closes there at the houly close my sell signal will be triggered,signalling the plunge to 1.1805 to break it for once and for all.But since we cud be alwys wrong we have our ultimate insurance in the stops.GTGL ALL>

Normandy Nick 22:18 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I've just switch on and I won't take any decision tonight (it's midnight here), simply, I would like to attrack your attention on the gbp/usd daily chart. You will see that we have touched the upper line of the down canal;...very interesting because from here, either we break that canal either we resume the daily downtrend with a potential to ...1.72xx
In the same time euro is also at the crossing ways on the daily chart...
So whatever happens, I think we are on strategic levels for long term players...
See soon, for the London opening....

Chicago Irish 22:15 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Max:Cheap advertising tricks don't go down well with this site's administators,if you think the sites mentioned are good then stick with them otherwise why ask?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:15 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
I have a stronger intraday sell signal for eur/usd if it can break the 1.1950-60 support you would miss some of the move but a better risk IMO.

OK SZ 22:14 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I got your email and appreciate it very much, I agree don't waste your money when you have really good traders here who share there place like it..see everyone this evening.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:11 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
new york max 22:07 GMT May 23, 2004
Why go there when you can get them here with no nonsense forex talk LOL.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:09 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW ML and FM a weak sell intraday signal for eur/usd was triggered by my system around 1.1980-75 with immediate resistance around 1.1995-2005 and support as I commented before IMHO. GL GT

indonesia newbie 22:03 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:53 GMT May 23, 2004
thx guys i will do that

Lahore FM 22:01 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
ML,I strongly suspect monday to wednesday,the time when we see 1.1805 and 1.1750,the low on euro being taken out.Will wait for ur weekly views.Bon Appetite'.

ICT ML 21:58 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Stepping out for dinner...I'll give my other weekly views when I get back.

ICT ML 21:57 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
FM...the euro, well I haven't decided if I am running a tight 40 pip stop here from 1.1985 and then reselling higher, or if I'm running a rather large stop. I'm leaning to a 40 pip stop here and sell again higher if the line I have holds. One thing is for sure.....I won't hold a bad trade very long with it so close to a major weekly trend line support I have at 1.1805 now.

Good luck to us though!

Lahore FM 21:53 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Newbie,Euro land and single currency,historically a matter more connected with being a memeber of EMU(European Monetary Union) than being a memeber of EU.i think u shud search the archives of Financial Times website.U will find relevant help there.

indonesia newbie 21:49 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 21:29 GMT May 23, 2004
ok sorry about this
but what i don't get it is the Uk is already member of EU
so why don't they merge the curencies.or it's about political?
thx for the attention

Lahore FM 21:48 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
ML,the indentity and timing of views is somewhat uncanny.Excellent forecasts by u.o u think i shud move stop to 1.2050 from 1.2030?

Wellington 21:45 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD – Recovering as Forecast

The Euro’s forecasted recovery is developing well and with support now at 1.1980/1.1930, looking for a strong advance onto 1.2250 over coming days, enroute to 1.2450.

To receive TRL's Chart Analysis, Email: [email protected]

ICT ML 21:43 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
I'd say same thing on eur-usd...sell now (1.1985) or up to 1.2050 with a stop tight above that. Above that and its not a sell anymore in my stuff mid-term anyway.

Lahore FM 21:43 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Can't agree more on GBP levels just posted.An excellent sell opportunity at present level.Best possible risk reward factor.Likewie in euro,sell now stop 1.2030.Buy dollar/chf at presnt level 1.2820 stop 1.2750.USD/JPY,buy now at 1112.10 stop at 111.60.GT GL ALL.

indonesia newbie 21:42 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 21:29 GMT May 23, 2004
thanks for the answer dude,
but can u give me another reason?
thx gl,gt to u too

ICT ML 21:37 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Looking at my weekly gbp-usd chart.....if one is looking to sell it mid term, do it now (1.7880) tgt 1.7000 area with a stop fairly tight above 1.7900, weekly falling wedge top at 1.7885.......good R/R as it gets here. If it breaks out to the upside, no real harm done.

Eilat Dolphin 21:29 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Newbie/ The £ is not in Euroland because the Brits don't want to share their North sea oil revenues with the Euroies. Just like the Norvegians. But the Northern folks don't have that many years to go.

Hope you have a good grade!

houston st 21:23 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

USA Biscuit Boy 21:16 GMT - I would prefer for them to start now in baby-step increments, at least .25, although I would like to see them go ahead and give us the full monty of .50 and be done w/ it until after the election..expect to see the first in June unless the econ releases change should already be factored in the market place, but there will no doubt be a reaction to the actual increase itself whenever it Doris Day use to sing, "Que Sera, Sera"

USA Biscuit Boy 21:18 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Well im off for a bbq. Thanks guys and good luck all :)

USA Biscuit Boy 21:16 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
houston st 21:12 GMT May 23, 2004

This weekend I watched some interesting analysis on US rates. Seems the Fed may still be very cautious about deflation hence the reinforcement they will adjust rates at a measured pace and not rush into anything. We may in fact see rates on hold until 2005.

houston st 21:12 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

an interesting analysis I thought you might find interesting..good trades this week:

The interest rate trends will remain a vital short-term influence on the markets in general and the dollar in particular. The evidence of the last week suggests that the dollar is unlikely to gain significantly on expectations of a gradual increase in interest rates. There is the possibility of a more aggressive tightening, especially if the next employment report is strong, but it is also doubtful whether a faster tightening would provide sustained dollar support, especially as there would be the risk of capital account stresses. A sustained increase in risk aversion would also tend to underpin the Euro rather than the dollar. The overall risks suggest that the dollar will depreciate on a medium-term view.

USA Biscuit Boy 21:07 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Bill my bias is for more dollar downside initially. Keep an eye on yen if it continues to gain so will the aussie.

indonesia newbie 21:05 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
hi forum
i want to ask something if it is okay
Why the the currencies Euro not included GBP since the Uk is one of EU member.
i need this to make my paper and need to be done before 6 pm est.
anyone helps??

St. Louis Bill 21:00 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 20:40 GMT May 23, 2004
St. Louis Bill 20:19 GMT May 23, 2004


Thank you, so until wed. aud/usd should stay inside r/s??...that reads well with me.

USA Biscuit Boy 20:40 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis Bill 20:19 GMT May 23, 2004

Dollar rally late Friday was just dealers covering any dollar shorts they had left over heading into the weekend. For aud/usd support lies at 0.6960/70 and big support at 0.6885 which must hold for this bull run to continue. No significant data out the first part of this week so im expecting dollar to be offered until Wednesday then profit taking to set in.

Ldn 20:28 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
French Banks proposing on possible sale of EUR4 billion to EUR5 billion of stock in France Telecom SA (FTE)
talk that banks advising on the deal, which include Societe Generale (13080.FR) and ABN Amro (30110.AE), suggested the state lower its initial expectations. Officials previously hoped to sell when the price stood at least at EUR23, current price of EUR19 plans proposed by banks to cut its stake to between 43% and 45%, a move which would mark the first time a public service has ever passed out of government hands in France. The French government is currently studying the situation.

St. Louis Bill 20:19 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Can't really figure out what the small dollar rally was about right before close. Naturally, not good for me. Nonetheless, Aud/Usd should prove interesting for scalpers until it breaks through .7005 THIS time I'm hoping it smashes through the resistance around the .7020 area. Just in case the market picks up were it left off it may push it down a little more. This is what I'm watching for but am unaware of the support levels at .69?? Does anyone know? Thanks for your help. G/L...oh btw please feel free to tell me if you agree/disagree (maybe i'm being

Wellington 20:07 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD – Recovering as Forecast

The Euro’s forecasted recovery is developing well and with support now at 1.1980/1.1930, looking for a strong advance onto 1.2250 over coming days, enroute to 1.2450.

To receive TRL's Chart Analysis (at no cost), Email: [email protected]

Helsinki iw 19:53 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Yes HK, just a feeble try at sarcasm. Obviously they are treating the symptoms, not the illness. Anyway, expect the the market to take the dollar weaker, be it Middle East related or not.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:36 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for the errors disregard the fibo numbers I must be still asleep they should look like these 1.1995-2000, 1.1975-80 and 1.1955-60 and support stays the same as in my previous post.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:27 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. I had posted the fibo for eur/usd Friday but I will put them here again with support. Rough fibo numbers 1.1995-2000, 1.1980-85 and 1.1960-65. Support is seen at 1.1980-70, 1.1950-60 and 1.1910-20 for the moment main resistance still remains intact 1.2060-70 IMHO. I will be back later GL GT

houston st 19:10 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

from an article at this link. Click to read the entire article.

Estimates of Chinese oil demand in 2003 and so far in 2004 are hovering in the 8 to 10 percent range per annum. This compares with an average growth rate of 6.5 percent from 1992 to 2002. By any measure, this growth is significant. If it persists at this level of growth, China might be responsible for higher world oil demand. But this may or may not result in sustained high oil prices depending on changes in supply and inventories. More, put in perspective, China's oil consumption is about the same as Japan's, one-quarter of the U.S.'s, and one-third of Europe's. Also, China's accelerated oil demand is at least partially offset by a slowdown in demand growth rates in Japan, Europe, Russia, Latin America, Africa, and the United States.

houston st 19:10 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

amc/ac - yes, OPEC touts a price band of $22-28 bbl, when in fact they know very well what the consumption and production capabilities of each country are..with the advent of "just-in-time" inventory techniques, the world is always near the ragged-edge of tank bottoms, or at least the low end of traditional inventories..there's also the worry of how rising oil prices affecting business & consumer confidence as well as real economic recovery where it's finally beginning to reveal itself..the situation in the Middle East, along with terrorist threats/worries in the so-called 'free world' is adding a premium to the price as well.

I speculated with a person over the weekend on how different the situation would be if China were the 'host' nation trying to disarm and defang Iraq. Imagine, if you would, what would be happening over there at the moment, and how other "superpowers" would be responding. Fwiw..

gl/gt this week.

Antwerp Tom 17:29 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
They are capable of doing that. LOL

UAE Oil man 17:27 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Yep it's a big event...Nice food, lots of speeches.

Now if you think there will be any effect it's like if Belgium asks the FED to raise rates.

Antwerp Tom 16:36 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Sorry OPEC = G7

Antwerp Tom 16:35 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello everybody. This OPEC event or non event good for Euro versus USD or not? TIA & GL and GT for upcoming week.

Bahrain KZ 15:58 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Moring / Evening..etc
Looks like it's gonna be a More like Sell/Hold Week...for the eur
Anyways..can anyone please help me with this task..
I need Historical Data for Gold,Silver and Oil in the from of
Date Open High Low Close
21-May-04 9939.34 10058.5 9910.81 9966.74
20-May-04 9939.12 10014.5 9867.73 9937.64
19-May-04 9962.55 10124.79 9919.9 9937.71
as an example
The data should include 01-Jan-2001 to current date...if you have a data source or reuiters... Thanks in advance..

Haifa ac 15:58 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
houston st 15:43 GMT // Not sure about the opening SUnday night but the CLOSE of futures Monday--will tell a LOT. Friday was 34 days and closed a 55 week swing in Crude oil.... We shall see how much Oilers respect Italians from Pizza.

Haifa ac 15:54 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 19:46 "..I for one have been biking whenever possible. "//

So did Bush.

ny amc 15:49 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
houston.......sounds encouraging????????????

houston st 15:43 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

The latest G7 headline here

HK [email protected] 14:51 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 14:05 GMT May 23, 2004
The point is not about the ban of holding camera or cellphones with cameras in military installation. Because by the first place, a permit to allow those cameras in military bases or during military operations, points to an extreme stupidity on behalf of the American armed forces authorities.
The main subject which may begin affecting next week politics and may serve as a fundamental weight may be in the followings:

(A)"An estimated 20 Mehdi militia were killed after firing on coalition forces during a raid on the Sahla mosque in Kufa," a U.S. military spokesman said. There no reported U.S. casualties.
Pools of blood lay inside the green-domed Sahla mosque, one of three main shrines in Kufa just outside Najaf, and spent cartridges littered the courtyard. A tank had smashed down the door of the building, where U.S. troops said they found weapons.

(B) Washington's main military ally in Iraq, Britain, has voiced disquiet about "heavy-handed" U.S. tactics, according to a Foreign Office memo leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper.
London officials were also quoted complaining the scandal over U.S. troops abusing Iraqi prisoners had "sapped the moral authority" of the occupying forces, who are due to hand back sovereignty to an interim Iraqi government on June 30..... The Sunday Times quoted a British Foreign Office memo as saying: "Heavy-handed U.S. military tactics in Falluja and Najaf some weeks ago have fueled both Sunni and Shi'ite opposition to the coalition and lost us much public support inside Iraq."

(C) In a new twist to the affair, a military lawyer defending one of the sergeants accused of beating and sexually humiliating detainees at Abu Ghraib was quoted as alleging that the overall U.S. commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, may have been present at the Baghdad prison at the time....(That may even go up to a higher level... into the pentagon ... what a trouble)

I do not see a strong dollar under the present situation, where the war may complicate with unexpected twists.

Helsinki iw 14:05 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Maybe the yen will weaken on a drop in Sony stock; reports
tell that Rumsfeld has banned military personnel from holding
cameras in Iraq. The ban is expected to be widened to all
military bases, at home and overseas. Should have seen that
one coming?

hk ab nzd .65 13:44 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
With oil price soars again, will dlr/jpy be affected?

LONDON PW 13:19 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
It's a good resource for traders!

paris sss 12:35 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

Wellington 07:57 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD – Recovering as Forecast

The Euro’s forecasted recovery is developing well and with support now at 1.1980/1.1930, looking for a strong advance onto 1.2250 over coming days, enroute to 1.2450.

Bahrain KZ 04:49 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
The recovery of the eur is still to come but not yet..need another two days of trading or so...maybe another week...generally more south at week start and good buy at 1.1750

Bahrain KZ 04:42 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Next week levels should be around these..good luck
Confidence 74%
Currecny Short Long
EURUSD 1.2172 1.1802
USDJPY 113.61 111.01
GBPUSD 1.8170 1.7553
USDCHF 1.2976 1.2615
EURCHF 1.5422 1.5250
AUDUSD 0.7340 0.6611
USDCAD 1.3898 1.3576
NZDUSD 0.6167 0.5958
EURGBP 0.6768 0.6653
EURJPY 136.36 132.86
GBPJPY 203.24 197.91
CHFJPY 88.92 86.56
GBPCHF 2.3069 2.2615
EURAUD 1.7355 1.6956
EURCAD 1.6663 1.6278
AUDCAD 0.9722 0.9448
AUDJPY 79.49 77.25

Hong Kong Qindex 04:25 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:24 GMT May 23, 2004
Spot Gold : 44-Day Cycle Reference

... // 372.0* - 374.4 - 376.8 - 379.2 - 381.5* - 383.9 - 386.3 - 388.7 - 391.0* // ...

Saihat 01:07 GMT May 23, 2004 Reply   

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