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Forex Forum Archive for 05/27/2004

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Stockholm za 23:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon >> all the best... & i hope you can work out all the bugs.....Happy trades

Tokyo Jon 23:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I am having trouble accessing my homepage this morning, so no updates till later, the lounge is working however.

Yesterdays results from my system,
Thursday 27, May 2004 High: 1.8398 Low: 1.8100
GBPUSD (1.8137), 75% Probability of a upward move

from 1.8290 75% probability of upward move target 1.8390
from 1.8116 60% probability of upward move target 1.8215

Ltn th 23:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
SNP. I havent redone the charts today yet but I had been hopeing to see above .73 earlier. London is right in his comment about overbought appearance but only on some time scales. I dont know how to properly interpret what I am seeing.

Calabash TarHeel 23:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Char. NC.
Are you around today?

LAX-LGB SNP 23:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
TH
you are right ... i should probably just let this week pass and look for another opportunity next month :-)

USA Biscuit Boy 23:06 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Martin I believe for today aud will be in big demand and short supply. Lots of aud short positions to cover for month end. Yesterdays close above 0.7150 will cause alot of hedge funds to rethink their aud strategy (i.e. cut their losses). USD will be offered again today so aud/usd especially a good buy for today IMO. Good luck tho.

Ltn th 22:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
SNP- You might be lucky to buy AUDUSD at those prices. Martin did very well to get it down below 7170 a little while ago. But you would have had to be pretty slippery to buy at those figures.

REVDAX. Have you any thoughts on this days actions?

Ldn 22:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Overbought condition suggests rally in AUD should stall in Asia session and pull back to 0.7120/40 before continuing higher. A drop through 0.7110 will suggest high in place. Further break of 0.7030 needed to suggest decline in place

ny amc 22:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I would like to ask you guys a question, i am very ignorant about certain things, but why where most of you saying that usd/chf would fall apart the worst ( which it definetly did )

LAX-LGB SNP 22:47 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
going to try and buy gbpusd ahead of 1.8310 & 1.8250, also audusd at 0.7120 to 0.7070 ... not looking @ euro since rollover from Queens and Convicts appears more lucrative

Montréal Taro 22:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
do you still here ?

Tokyo Jon 22:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hello all

Gen dk 22:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 22:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 21:46
The only problem is you were bringing down your ranges every time the Aussie fell another 50pts and on reaching 68 you then were quoting 57 as the next target...if you had stuck to the 68 on the initial call ,more people no doubt would have traded this range . I agree we will be seeing a stronger dollar in the second half of June - feel you lost focus towards the end of that run . cheers
Also agree the aussie has more downward bias but a range of 75-68 would not be a suprise.

Gold Coast martin 21:46 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USA BISCUIT BOY...dont get carried away with the aud gain view..it has managed to just keep its head above the 7150-7165 range..it has already reached its peak in this mini-rally..will continue more or less in the 7060-7150 range {maybe stay at current level for a short while)for the next 2 sessions as posted yesterday ,before resuming its down ward bias next week...the u.s major economic data of next week will assist the aussie downward spiral...talk of 74 to 78 levels are long gone as i posted 3 weeks ago...those were different times with totally different economic and geophysical circumstances...g/l g/t

USA Biscuit Boy 21:36 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Let the aud squeeze begin.....I am betting aud will gain across the board today.

Livingston nh 21:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tempus - the jump in the swissy has been pretty big - this happened back in March (Madrid)// bond market (some flite to quality) seems to be unwinding big short positions so this recent run-up may be near over

Fed now seems to be squeezing money supply again after big jump in Q1

Rivonia PipPirate 21:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 20:42 Do you prefer "Your Royal Highness" or "Your Royal Lowness"?

GVI john 20:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2275…$/yen 110.85
DJIA 10,205, +95 pts NASDAQ 1,985, +8 pts
10-yr 4.60%, -6 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE



See GVI for full text

LAX-LGB SNP 20:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 20:42
tell me abt it ... all that talk of consolidation made me closeout last nite itself - what was i thinking

USA Biscuit Boy 20:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tempus given the US economy is leveraged to the hilt on these low rates the Fed would have to be censored sure before hiking. And let's not forget Bush and co. would be very happy if they didn't hike before the election....

Wash DC Tempus 20:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Before we all start guessing on Fed policy at the June meeting several factors to closely watch....

Markt has priced in 25 bp hike at teh June meeting, however recent US$ weakness and bond strength shows taht some of these expecattioons are being scaled back. Why?

the answer to this is two-fold. The price of oil above 40 per bbl has an even greater effect of slowing US economc growth than a Fed hike. We believe taht if oil prices do not settle to levels near 35 per bbl teh Fed will keep rates steady as any hike could have a double slowdown effect on the economy. SO WATCH OIL PRICES

in addition, there seems to be some significant geoplotical risk premium weighing on teh US$ this week. We are watching teh direction of US$ CHF to help dtermine this premium. We believ any push in US CHF back above 1.2700 will reveal a signicant easing of this risk premium and help promote US$ strength.

until these factors are resolved think FED hike is secondary influence on USD direction.

ICT ML 20:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
damnnn....looks like 1.8400 might print after all. Call me the KING of early withdrawl.....

USA Biscuit Boy 20:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
LHR given the Fed's statement on raising rates at a "measured" pace tells me they are not in any rush to raise rates. I personally think August much more likely than June. Either way rate hike is already priced in where it counts.

LHR B747 20:15 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Fed meeting @ 30/JUN/2004

Rates unchanged means USD drops very hard (10% chance)

Rates up by .25% means USD range will be 2% higher and 6% lower (60% chance)

Rates up by .50% means USD will rise 10%-12% during the next three months (30% chance)

Your comments and opinions about this very simple sheet :)

Stockholm za 20:09 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

10,87 million :-oooopps !

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 19:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
so do we see 111.00 or 110.50 on the usd jpy first -- gl gt

Spotforex NY 19:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
the recent lows in euro under 1.18 tested the 1 yr uptrend line in euro.....

I wish I was a euro bull back then Zorro......

I saw the 1.1940 upside break as pivotal.....then 1.2050....

I don't have the conviction of my views like in the spring of '02 (I wrote THE dollar obituary on this forum back on May 20th 2002)...

happy hunting

spot

EU ZORRO 19:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Spot....

...Let's see if this week was the last week of the year to buy EUROS below 1,20....

LAX-LGB SNP 19:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
today's usd selling could be attributed to usdcad's 3 hanging men on daily - also euryen above 136 signifies mkts potential for further growth

Stockholm za 19:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP >>> and a forum........ lol

LAX-LGB SNP 19:20 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ZA ... true that ! but it takes all kinds to make the mkt

Stockholm za 19:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......
It gets very entertaining when FX noise traders become micro.
Nice try !!! The Guys on the POLITICAL FORUM Does a better job...........

Bah Bahrain1 19:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds, Buy $CHF @ 1.2405 if seen with stop @ 1.2370 for a move 1.2530 tom. GL

houston st 18:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

usd/jpy: a couple of key levels here -- 200 ema @ 110.49; 50 ema @ 110.29.

OK SZ 18:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
zorro, yes good post

houston st 18:36 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Tim--here's what Dr. Q had to say about that last night. He's expecting 105 in usd/jpy within 1-2 months..fwiw

Hong Kong Qindex 02:56 GMT May 27, 2004
houston st 02:40 GMT - If you are a position trader I guess you don't care too much about 20 -30 pips difference.

good luck.

Wisconsin tim 18:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
want to re-enter/sell $/Y any thoughts on a possible level -111.30 area?

Spotforex NY 18:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Zorro....

you are the man!!!!!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
see you later my friends !!

CAIRO AG 18:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ// SMART COMMENT...

GL & GT

EU ZORRO 18:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello all...

..1,2200...and MA21....key levels here...

...IMO...EURO must close this week/month above 1.22 to confirm double bottom at 1,18......next target could be around 1,26....

....Happy trades...

OK SZ 18:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I should have been paying more attention to the 10yr note..when support at 4.70 broke it was bad for the $..now it looks like it will head to 4.40% which in turn should put the euro at 12345 which is the 50% retracement of 12925/11760

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
NYC.
I use stop loss too in every entry level with stp 30 pips
but my stp not liquidation. My stp is locking/hedging/straddle.
now all my possie have be opened today.

NYC NYC 18:14 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas, you said the same thing yesterday at Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 11:22 GMT May 26, 2004. Don't you trade with a stop?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Don't loose this big train.
usd/jpy bottom is at 110.68
usd/chf bottom is at 1.2435
gbp/usd top is at 1.8380
eur/usd top is at 1.2280
aud/usd top is at 0.7240 (not yet be get)
gold top is at 396.00.
please save in your memory book !!

houston st 18:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:04 GMT-thanks for your viewpoint..least we forget too, this adminstration is still touting the "strong $" policy! enjoy your lunch..

Livingston nh 18:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rate hikes are not necessarily USD positive (see 1994 thru April 1995) -also talk of trade deficits and funding needs are too simplistic with respect to USD values because of the 2 sided nature of trade // as far as gold and the USD that world changed in August 1971

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:04 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
houston, don't want to spam this board but since trading has sort of come to a halt, I'll explain some other factors. I find traders often don't percieve world econ as much as fibs, retracements and sma. If the usd gets really cheap, trade sanctions and import duties could control the flow of US exports, not that it wouldn't start a row, but that cartridge is in the cylinder of the revolver. So there are more ways than interventions to control things. Besides, the USA doesn't want to make too many more enemies that it already has made...to tighten the dollar up with systematic Fed rate hikes would not be to the USA's ultimate disadvantage. Again, we will see a strengthing of the USD starting next year and likely for 3 or 4 years...this downtrend for USD's worth is just the last cough of the flu. I'm gone...lunch becons.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:04 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hello all my friends here. I hope you are fine today.
Until today my view still wrong..I got floating loss and still be hold until now (average strategy).
Until today I still deposit in placing order sell gbp/usd.
My highest sell gbp/sud at 1.8353 and 1.8380.
I feel today is buying climax and strong feeling from my analysis. Today all pairs (include gold) have get harmonic number ecept aud/usd must get 0.7240/44.
Yes... begin tomorrow I think we will see new history with the opposite of what we thinking today(maybe by strong worry).
I don't thinking gbp/usd will move up so far again but my extreme opinion today have get Top of chart from several tops of "hill". Need deep valley. Maybe I need patience.

Okay I hope my analysis is objective and can help you to take your decision today. m:-)
BE CAREFULL WITH TODAY AND TOMORROW !!!!! Climax selling of usd.
Start new opposite phase.

LAX-LGB SNP 18:01 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
the less time i spend on the FF, the better i trade ;-)

since i am flat after closing my winners too censored soon, i have decided to 'let it go' and wait for a retracement (nx month ?) before i open any new positions

Sydney alimin 17:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
that was a nice discussion, thank you all..time for some sleep here
see u in the morning

CAIRO AG 17:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ramallah// thats based on the GOLD CHART my friend....

However, there are A LOT better than myself here in the forum, i was just sharing the info with our friends here.

may need to ask any of the SNIORS here, and to name just a few of them for you: Athens ( of course), farmacia, Oil Man, ML, GEP, BC, ... etc ( sorry if i missed the rest).

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
houston, historically CBs such as big CBs as in ECB and BOJ have flexed their muscles. They run out of beans eventually. Really, since the last muscle flexing the bean pile has diminished to a point. The big red panic button won't be pressed until 1.35 is reached. Frankfurt (the Euro nest) has already indicated that above 1.30 for the eur/usd pair would cause some pain but not to the point of tears..hence the word pain thrshhold..tolerance of pain. So we've a way to go yet to exceed 1.35, the percieved pain threshold, and not to say natural corrections wouldn't intervene before CBs had to. big CBs if clung together could however form a formidable force.

ramallah 17:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
dear sydney i think usa will lead the whole wide world for another recission as long as they are the leaders and they are fooling the whole world about thier healthy economy

nyc fxdh 17:50 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
bought some $ cdn here....oil coming down should help $ cdn?? any thoughts

ramallah 17:49 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
thank you MR CAIRO, are you tech or fundemental ?

Sydney alimin 17:49 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
could there be another global recession imminent? i wonder....

Ramallah 17:47 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
we are long euro at 1.2239 ,for half a million (euro) , your view my friends ??

CAIRO AG 17:46 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Well... for those who INSISTED on shorting the euro and family, I REALLY DONT THINK WE WILL SEE A CORRECTION, before GOLD reaches 398.70... ( now at 396.05)



GL & GT

houston st 17:46 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:40 GMT - along those lines, I was wondering just how much market chaos would occur had a cb, such as the ECB or BOJ, decided to flex their muscles today...just a thought..gl/gt.

Ramallah 17:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
euro view my friends please ????????????

weston rcs 17:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Interest rates, tech (especially semis), retail, and oil prices have led during May.
Fixed income keeps, rallying, but is short term overbought.

Longer term (> than beyond this weekend up to about 3-6 months), a new buy signal has just been issued:

Same for homebuilders. Bonds are overbought now short term. Take some profits shoprt term. Long term solid long.

Energy getting dumped. Much larger losses are ahead from large oil production increases. No threat to major refineries or production from terrorists; too well guarded. Substantial reduction in positions for cash to buy back in six months or more.

Gasoline crash beginning to as predicted. Larger declines ahead. Futures show another 20% lower.

want details? please hit:
EMAIL
this is just the beggining! charts, insights and money maker. jump on board -- free to peek.


quito_valdez at yahoo 17:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
About intervention..things have a habit of correcting themselves without intervention, the point I'm making is that the nature of things itself is a limiting factor. Afterall there is a limit of extremes that would come into play if/when eur/usd reaches 1.32-1.35. The USA and other dollarized countries such as Ecuador, Panama and part of Argentina and even Russia would produce more products for internal consumption and import less, strengthening their already perforated economies. If the USA is attacked and the USD further weakened, the USA exporters will go wild with even more exports..grain, petroleum, tech, fabrics, all sorts of things. So if we're attacked, USA wins (economically speaking), if not, they still win. Nice to be the king.

houston st 17:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

quote of the day: "Only the big cats walk at night."

Sydney alimin 17:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
geez looks like it is a complete byebye to usd
if, as KL pointed out before, intervention will be the saviour, they will need a pretty well coordinated approach...historically, how successful is such intervention?

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I've visited Toledo Ohio and Paris Kentucky but never visited New York, Italy; Must be a new city? How's the pizza?

USA Biscuit Boy 17:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 17:10 GMT May 27, 2004

If the dollar correction is indeed over then recent history will show us good US data saw the dollar sold even more and left quite a few scratching their heads in its last medium term downtrend. This time it looks like the dollar may gradually be ground down over the coming years. Who knows aud may hit parity in a few years!

New York NY new guy here 17:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hallo to all of you, i am new here and I just wanted to introduce myself. I am trying to trade gold and silver because so far i really never traded online, all the gold i own is in a safe here and in italy. I was trying earlier to use the paper trading program but buying 10 golds made me loose $7000 with price of the gold changing $1.00 really didn't understand how. I must be a moron but if some of you is soo kind to explain to a 30 years old who wants to learn.....

quito_valdez at yahoo 17:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD Plus would be, yea rate hike priced in..uh...well...I simply don't know of any other than a major-major top notch win over Al Quaeda (how much is that worth?), or if USA uncaps it's immense oil and gas reserves and begins selling it's true petro asset (not likely), a new barbeque sauce recipe that takes the world by storm maybe or a major worldwide disater in which the USA is NOT implicated? Pretty far out stuff..naw, the USD needs to be low to make the country solid, square off irresponsible deficits and get it's stuff together. Anyone with anymore USD positive info out there that would thwart Washington's zest for a low dollar?

chicago cal 17:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
it's a plugin to my platform f x c m

KL KL 17:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 17:10 GMT May 27, 2004 ..probably eom squaring.....importers/exporters...lastly....interventions by government to push their ccy lower to be competitive....lets face it .... all countries pretending to be o.k but deep down.....cracks are appearing...imho

USA Biscuit Boy 17:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 16:59 GMT May 27, 2004

All I can say is last time I saw the current setup of client positions on my platform (net short eur/usd, net long usd/chf and net long usd/jpy) the dollar trended down over 1000 pips.

There were minor corrections along the way but these were just more selling opportunities. As a previous poster said the greatest risk is among the commodity currencies as they may rally for a long long time. Cable and Kiwi must be favored for imminent rate hikes. Good luck to you!

Sydney alimin 17:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
guys, can anyone think of any factors that could make usd stronger in near term? i just want to look at things from different perspectives
atm, i think rate hikes by the fed is pretty much priced in, it is just a matter of time, any good data if within expectation will just be washed aside (need extraordinary data which at the current climate is just out of my imagination), so what else is there that can help usd?

if there is no other factor that can help usd, wouldnt it be too obvious to everybody to go against usd? TIA to all inputs

OK SZ 17:06 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Cal, where is that located?

OK SZ 17:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
MNI- market news international

chicago cal 17:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
does anyone else use squawk box internet headlines ? if not i highly recommend it; especially the order flow board

does anyone else recommend a news service?

quito_valdez at yahoo 16:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy! top o' the marnin to ye! Wouldn't you agree that generally for the rest of the year longing XX/usd would be pretty safe strategy, shorting carefully only on peaks?

Nottingham 16:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 16:44 GMT

smooth operators...losers are knocked on the head as soon as...gl gt

USA Biscuit Boy 16:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Time to buy aud and sell usd for the next leg higher (above 0.7220 tomorrow). End of month and plenty of aud short positions need to be cleaned out and real money looking to get in next week I think. GL and GT.

quito_valdez at yahoo 16:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
To remove mystery of EUR/USD, again, look at the 3 yr and 10 yr charts. It's no mystery, the pair is simply ascending to next level as any child could predict from those two charts. Don't be surprized when you see 1.25-1.26 for this pair in the next 45-60 days nor 1.30+ in the next 2-3 months, which is under the pain threshold of the EZ. Sure you'll see dips, don't think they indicate a major drop. We've got a good half year before a major 3 year down trend will start, then you can short with confidence. USD exports especially of no or low material entities such as software, high tech hardware, nano tech, satcom tech and military tech will increment with other low dollar produced USA exports. That's the plan needed to get USA deficits squared. The USD is property of the USA and not to be controlled forever by the EZ or Asia. LHR B747, get those tootises clean, your time is soon to come. The 1.15 eur/usd tribe can tuck it in cubbyholes for at least 20 months. Longing of all XX/USD pairs is the menu of the day keeping some asset in safe houses of CHF & gold metal.

Sydney alimin 16:44 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 16:27 GMT May 27, 2004

that's an interesting one about the hedge funds, imagine if they all get out of their losing positions (after being hurt too much by double blows in currency and commodities)

OK SZ 16:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
didn't buffett get out of his short $ positions a week or two ago? he should have been in the forum with us:)

KL KL 16:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 16:27 GMT May 27, 2004
If that is correct, we may see abig retracement come june??hmmm interesting...maybe all these has to do with eom....well then dollar bull should be a right play at about thesse few days... interesting....

chicago cal 16:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
it's hard to imagine 99 year old buffet day trading

sydney fg 16:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
buy aud back here. time for zzzz.
good luck all.

chicago cal 16:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
any long term money manager that's still in this business is probably holding positions against the dollar

chicago cal 16:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
if others are taking profits now prolly a good time to get in a 15 pip cable or euro short

Sydney alimin 16:33 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
i wonder if warren buffet is still holding his positions against usd? this guy could be proven correct again

i know a guy who is a gold trader, he was losing money when gold went down to below 380 but still holding his position, he must be happy now, he must be betting now if gold will go up to 400 again or else he will just take his profit happily

HK Kevin 16:30 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Long small ugly EUR/CHF at 1.5282 

Nottingham 16:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 16:21 GMT

I mentioned this a week or so ago...hedge funds...after suffering carry related losses on commodity/commodity related currencies, large bets were made on euro to also make a leg lower (in an effort to get on the right side of the trend and recoup some losses)...now their end of month bottom lines are going to look even worse...gl gt

saloniko 2004 nk 16:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

$ is Like A BUTTER..A soft Butter..

But

Will try to Buy some Butter with a STP 1.2378

nk

chicago cal 16:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
i think i'm going to exit now if, i make a trade early europe i'll post it, typically this time of day slows down quite a bit for most markets

Sydney alimin 16:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
it is very interesting when we look back just about 3 weeks ago, people were calling for euro 1.14-1.15 within striking distance, and then the double bottom formed, everything has changed since then...i am sure there are still plenty got caught off guard with short positions, unless there is something dramatic happen, i agree that buying on dips is the preferred strategy...congrats to all that have made good calls and ridden this euro train!
me myself will wait next week

GER ad 16:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5275

chicago cal 16:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
i don't know monday; i entered long positions at 1.8020 and 1.8150 still holding i did not think it would go this hi so i'll have to do some reasearch and figure out where to exit i'll get back in a bit, i just woke up

Sydney alimin 16:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
with current rate plus some help from data tomorrow, there is a possibility that euro will touch 1.24, downside correction is always there too but atm i just cant see what would cause big retracement
next week will be very very interesting

Stockholm za 16:06 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 16:00.... Loud and clear......... lol
Happy trades....

KL KL 16:04 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 16:00 GMT May 27, 2004 , what level do you plan to exit your position?? I am sure it will retrace some where??your view please..tia

chicago cal 16:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
good thing people talk of shorting cable; when i clearly stated 2 days ago that the market was long on the pair for the week

gl trying to squeeze 20-30 pips on a short when technically you could have longed it for 200-300 pips

JHB SA 15:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Glenn. Mail 4 u.GL GT

Bah Bahrain1 15:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Many thanks Oil Man.

HK Kevin 15:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF is approaching critical level 1.5280 in the weekly & monthly chart.

Nottingham 15:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
excuse my spelling...short of a recent fast ma top

Hong Kong Qindex 15:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:41 GMT May 27, 2004
GBP/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.8002* - 1.8127 - 1.8252* - 1.8377 // 1.8502* ... 1.8751 ...

Nottingham 15:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 15:37 GMT

shorted cable at 8365, dhort of a recen fast ma top is a coincidence more than anything else...but as in my discussions re the aussie, I'm prepared to maintain my position for two weeks...I would be happy with levels closer to 8300 to take profit if closing today...gl gt

UAE Oil man 15:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 15:18 GMT May 27, 2004

Intra-day?..might wait for a little 50 pips dip and long!.

KL KL 15:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:48 GMT May 27, 2004
R U looking to short gbpusd near 1.84...looks heavy from here ?? your view appreciated.tia

jkt diablo 15:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ok, now that we've seen the highs for EUR and GBP now, what do you think will happen tomorrow? Do you think weekend off loading (or profit taking) will happen before further rise next week?

I'm planning to short cable at 1.8370, looking for 1.8320 or lower.

london 15:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
why you have to eat your own pants if you're square?

HK Kevin 15:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
For those who short the Conts, must place stops for your positions. If the tide of USD strength since Feb really turns, the existing price may not been seen for months or years.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ZA thanks for asking I am currently riding this euro train with a mid term position and at the moment it looks very healthy. I don’t know many people that use the P/F but I like to compare it to the other charts for breakouts, etc. Like the Oil Man says “good trend slowly slowly” LOL. GT

USA Biscuit Boy 15:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Well I wouldn't want to enter a long dollar position but taking some profit is wise for now IMO.

Tallinn viies 15:33 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:31 - okidoki, is euro eating your pips?

im sq here

london 15:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ok viies, fair enough, you eat your pant while euro eat pips :))

HK Kevin 15:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 15:17 GMT, good call. I really need to learn from you on riding/sitting on positions. My short Cable was stop out for ~50 pips loss yesterday.

Stockholm za 15:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> ........ Thanks !!
It has been a relative good / easy week hiting from the base line... & fwiw . P&F horisental BU. count target is not met as yet....we are just hiting the expansion gate.. Hope all is well with you ... happy trades ....

OK SZ 15:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
also hear of small option at the 80 level

OK SZ 15:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ok back from my workout..agree, no way we see 12350 today..I would be surprised if we break 12280..I see slow move down from here..

Nottingham 15:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...decent demand coming in at 3560/70 but related stops are below...next large orders due at 3510/00...o/s at 3475
euro...conventionally o/b at 2270 which is enough for a positive result on this pair today/coming days...gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I believe next resistance will hold for eur/usd which is 1.2290-2300 area IMO.

Tallinn viies 15:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:21 GMT - Im ready to eat my pants if we see 1,2350 today before NYC close :)

sydney fg 15:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
i have sold some aud here for a minor retracement.
usd/jpy is my enemy as it looks to have more downside in it, but I am working on the theory that it should find some support as it closes in on previous range. Will hold it while 7205 caps and 1.2300 caps eur.

london 15:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 15:09 GMT May 27, 2004 you had enough? how about wiping out all the tight stops with a stretched daily ATR & place the might euro up at 1.2350/70? :))

Tallinn viies 15:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 15:15 - no instincts unfortunatelly :(

although I see that euro is 65 pips over my higher bolliger. rarely it is 50 pips over...

Bah Bahrain1 15:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oilman/// Hi mate, what u think for euro pls? intraday pls?

UAE Oil man 15:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Does look like my little trend is picking up some little speed finally !

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
In other word ZA that is retracement numbers from 5-24 to this top now.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:15 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I think so Viies. My instincts are telling me to sell more USD so time to buy hehe.

Bah Bahrain1 15:14 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds gd day to u.....where is this EURO is stopping now.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:14 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ZA I am mainly looking at the daily chart but the intraday indicators for1hr and 4hr chart are in O/B territory for eur/usd suggesting a retracement with mid term indicators (daily-weekly charts) showing a bullish run not over yet for this pair IMHO. I hope you are doing well this week. GT

Vilnius george 15:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 14:54
i would say :
today was a day when nobody wanted to die ...
he he he gl

Tallinn viies 15:09 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I guess it is enough for today. top could be forming here 65/75?

Stockholm za 15:03 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:41 >>>>
what time frame are you looking at ? .. tia & happy trades...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ML hope you are doing well eur/usd looks to have the same configuration you just mentioned about cable.

ICT ML 14:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
This is too early to be of use, but in my daily stuff, if cable is going to retrace this move at all, it will be tomorrow, and probably in a big way. If it closes tomorrow with a new high, then the down move is confirmed dead in my studies, as it looks to be now.

Done for the day, took profit on the intraday stuff, looking to buy into 1.8275-80 and sell below that for Fridays trades. GL

USA Biscuit Boy 14:44 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:41 GMT May 27, 2004

Make that three! We are not done yet :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the point and figure chart for eur/usd I see a support around 1.2220 and 1.2140 for the time being. Retracement has changed to 1.2135-40, 1.2095-2100 and 1.2055-60 area for now. GL GT

nyc jk 14:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
bob, you are going to have to buy a second piggybank to put all your profits in!

uk bob 14:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
good morning
lots of Sterling pips rolling into uncle bob's piggy bank now. 7 big figures so far. more to come
stay long be happy

Stockholm za 14:20 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ny amc 13:49 GMT May 25, 2004
Recap... Reality.......... lol
Happy trades to you.......

Nottingham 14:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 13:54 GMT

you need to look back to last year for last secondary o/b...either we are due one or it's unlikely...play your own spin on it! Euro never fails to disappoint by failing to reached its own o/b...have been waiting six months for a euro o/b so I'm not holding my breath...these days I give thanks to the aussie as its been the most fruitful this year; primary at 7186...gl gt

nyc jk 14:15 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Debtor - probably at least in part because Oil is coming off.

melbourne farmacia 14:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - three figures would be nice for the day. GT

London Debtor 14:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas why the SP500 is up? TIA

nyc jk 14:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks for that, looking to sell some on a little rally myself if seen. gl

houston st 14:06 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

nyc jk 14:01 GMT - pretty generous stop..113.57..don't see it getting there but have it "just in case"..stranger things have happened..good trades to you.

nyc jk 14:01 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
st - like your trade in the jpy - where will you leave your stop out of curiousity?

ICT ML 13:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:48 GMT May 27, 2004

thanks much....I have a TP at 1.8400 now for this leg....hope to see it today still.....never know

Nottingham 13:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 13:46 GMT

secondary 8411...gl gt

ICT ML 13:46 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:20 GMT May 27, 2004
cable...primary o/b 8359...gl gt

where is your secondary OB on cable right now?

houston st 13:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

good day all..volatile market..sold the small eur/usd I bought overnight..currently flat..short usd/jpy - thanks to Qindex's excellent analysis last night - and holding for medium-term play..short from 111.57 level and looking for below 105 in 1-2 months..from today's postings most made money..don't give it back before the long weekend..sit on your hands or get away from the screens and do something else..it's not always this easy..good luck & good trades.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW on the mid term long position for eur/usd moved stops to 1.2060 to protect profits at this time.

UAE Oil man 13:39 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Jordan Joe offcourse there's room for a blip..which should be shorted..

Minnesota Mark 13:36 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
This would be fantastic if I didn't feel like throwing up right now... I've never made this much in this short of time in my life..

Stockholm za 13:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB >>>> re. my weekend mail...
Happy trades to you.....

Normandy Nick 13:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
close chf and pound;

OK SZ 13:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
euro is overstretched so we need a pullback..I closed my long from 07 at 50 so done for the day..gl, gt

sydney fg 13:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
righto, sell my aud here at bottom of previous range.
oilman u are on fire

jordan joe 13:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man
last question
do u see retrasment befor down again

Chambery FR JFB 13:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... even good things come to an end... s/l hit @1.2200 from 1.2142, -58 pips... Happy trades :-)

nyc jk 13:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
well done Oil Man, nice trades.

Nottingham 13:20 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
cable...primary o/b 8359...gl gt

ny amc 13:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I must say that there has been some VERY good calls on this side over the last 2 weeks by some of you and I just want to say thanks for sharing your insights.

UAE Oil man 13:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jordan joe 13:16 GMT May 27, 2004

108.38.

jordan joe 13:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man
can you tell us what now after 110.85 in yen TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man at this rate you won’t need camels when you can have private Jets at you back door LOL.

UAE Oil man 13:09 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nice little slow trend..

it's actually just the start...Remember that i want FEW weekly bars in my direction..Patience.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:07 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
The end of the month and a long weekend with terror alerts glooming in the air sets up a choppy market for Friday not for the faint of heart IMHO. GL GT

mex sjs 13:05 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
yes , me...long usdchf here at 1.2555 stop 1.2520 tgt above 1.2610....see what happens...range for the week is already way far from past ones...329 pips

USA Biscuit Boy 13:05 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
There will not be a bounce IMO. Who wants to go home long dollars over the long weekend?

Singapore Sfx 13:04 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
yup debtor

London Debtor 13:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Anyone buying USD/CHF here for a bounce?

Helsinki iw 13:01 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/USD broke the previous top at 1,2170ish and the
resistance at 1,2190/00,which is quite bullish for the 1,2350/00 area. However intraday charts are somewhat stretched, so after the stops are run, we may see some retracement towards 1,2170 max. USD/CAD also following after unwinding o/s status on dailies. IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
BB you are right and they did not put up much of a fight on the last run. I know I have posted this before but these are the rough retracement numbers for the complete run from 1.2900’s 1.2195-2205, .12330-40 and 1.2475-85. At times like this it is easy to pull the trigger to early or to late if you are not in the train it has left the station wait for the next one IMHO.

USA Biscuit Boy 12:56 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
1.2220 is the next resistance for eur/usd. Aussie looks the safest way to buy dollars but kiwi may drag it thru 0.7150 soon enough

sydney fg 12:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
martin on the offer here in the aud. If we can get through it's going to be nasty. I'm short while 40 holds, reverse at 50 if need be.

USA Biscuit Boy 12:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I believe 1.22 was just taken out.

Stockholm za 12:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw….. €/$ at the moment ….Today’s drama
[ Ema (21 crossing 34)+(13 –C- 233 & 55)+(5 –C- 89) ]= ↗
Most interesting ema 55 moving back over 233
The price drift is in proportion – at some time it will return to round-table with ema 5.
So don’t get carried away when it does…
The inner weekly spectrum is given as 2249 – 2105
Weekly bullish :- 85,7%
Happy trades & have a nice day….

Sydney alimin 12:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa: you wanted the move, you got the move :)

OK SZ 12:49 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Omil, good numbers..I have a buy order in at 12207 just in case we take out 122..gl, gt

nyc sa 12:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
not much move after the numbers

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
The data was not all that bad I believe the DNT 1.17/1.22 is still protected so we might range for now. Good Idea to buy on dips as the next retracement numbers are 1.2190-2200 and 1.2290-2300 IMHO.

USA Biscuit Boy 12:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Remember tomorrow is month end and long dollar positions will continue to get squeezed regardless of data IMO.

OK SZ 12:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I would like to see euro pullback to 12130 where that would be a good buying opportunity bit it may not..so will watch the 122 level and see from there. If we clear 122 then 12250 for sure towards 12450

manila stubbs 12:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
good evening raden mas.
what in your view will offer strong support for the pound as of now? and what will it be if 1.8280 is broken later tonight?
thanks

Minnesota Mark 12:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
8:29 U.S. weekly jobless claims down 3,000 to 344,000
8:30 U.S. 4-week avg jobless claims up 1,500 to 335,500
8:30 U.S. Q2 GDP revised to 4.4% from 4.2% previously
8:30 U.S. Q1 after-tax profits up 36.7% year-over-year

Normandy Nick 12:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
did not reverse on chf, datas still not out

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
plan sell gbp/usd at 8329 if 8285 be broken.
ideal 8280 is the top for sell.

OK SZ 12:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
well the way I see it is if the 122 level is taken out then we are headed for 12450 level..the 12080 level has shown strong support which looks like bottom..gl, gt

Normandy Nick 12:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ready to reverse short on pound at 1.8290 and long on chf at 1.2600

ny amc 12:07 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
normandy...i was just about to say that

Normandy Nick 12:05 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
it looks like the Dow Jones expects good datas...

Gen dk 11:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 11:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab...employment + earnings...market looking for canadian bullish numbers...US data may take lead but either way I hear same demand expected to pick up dollars on dips...down to 3625/20...below there I'd say some associated/unassociated stops will fire...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 11:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, what cad info do we have today? TIA.

Normandy Nick 11:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
pound broke its "mini" interim support, pointing 1.8210 now

melbourne farmacia 11:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Flip - lol - he was on the radio yesterday... bit of dead censored...
and he worked in singapore the same time as "Nick" ....GT

GVI john 11:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2150…$/yen 111.50
DJIA -1 pts… 10-yr 4.67%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


See Full Text in GV Research Section


Normandy Nick 11:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 11:17 GMT May 27, 2004
Mark, you freak me out! lol but that's what I say about France, 10 years to go before the economic judgement day!

Minnesota Mark 11:30 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
List of people not to trust (not in order) Lawyers, ex-wives, business accountants, and bankers. (J/K sort of)

Nottingham 11:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...demand expected to pick up dips if canadian data due shortly surprises to upside...gl gt

Normandy Nick 11:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 11:12 GMT May 27, 2004
yes sure. I just think his opinion is good to contrast mine, to "smooth" my convictions. The market has been created by humans for humans but obey to fundamental datas and Hardy gives me the main lines of it. I mean he works for a bank! the banks! the main actors of the forex so,I always give him my consideration.

Dublin Flip 11:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, It's probably a smart tghing to get the book written and out now. He's going to be a little busy living his next one
"f..ked: My life as a gaol bitch"

melbourne farmacia 11:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 08:18 GMT May 27, 2004
One of the NAB ( Looking at Aussie Chart upside down ) guy's, has just released his autobiography - Fake: my Life as a Rogue Trader...fwiw

Minnesota Mark 11:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
As far as the US GDP and other such data, I really don't know, they will lie as much as they think they can get away with. The US economy is going to crash and burn once people open their eyes. I went to the store yesterday and a package of beef I normally buy went up $1, milk is up .50 per gal, bankruptcies are rising, incomes are falling, jobs are debatable if up or down, energy prices are up. I can't see how these euphoric lemmings can continue to prop things up. Sorry for the length but on this I could cite facts for hours.

Nottingham 11:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 10:41 GMT

I'm not targeting any particular individual...point is most follow each other and are useless...bottom line is you aren't really learning anything worthwhile from the majority of them...in order to know what is worthwhile, it is necessary to have experience, so it's no use telling someone that they should only listen to the "good" ones, as the average punter won't be able to differentiate as most of these analysts have silver tongues and are able to sound convincing, which is their job in the end...if you are planning to treat fx as a long term interest, you need to be able to stand on your own two feet, otherwise you will come unstuck sooner or later, that's a fact...gl gt

Normandy Nick 11:10 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I moved the stop on usd/chf at 1.2605
interim support on pound at 1.8237 bid now, self confidence number for bulls at 1.8276 bid

Minnesota Mark 10:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jkt diablo 10:48 GMT May 27, 2004 --the currency completed its correction phase at 1.8105 and has made marginal high since then, to currently trade at 1.8200. The rally should accelerate in accordance with the specifications of an Elliott third wave type appreciation. As such, the ongoing rally may be focused at 1.8400 area. The entire third wave sequence may end at 1.8650 area next week.
I am playing options right now so minor moves/corrections on the way to the goal line, (and interference from Nick) gives me room to let it wander.

jkt diablo 10:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:49 GMT May 27, 2004
diablo, they have targets at around 1.92.. time frame diff.

ab, that's a quite unbelievable target :-)
Is that a short term or long term target? Is USD really that weak? Honestly, I doubt it.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
long eur/chf 1.5350.

Normandy Nick 10:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
long usd/chf 1.2628 stop 1.2609 bid

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:49 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
diablo, they have targets at around 1.92.. time frame diff.

jkt diablo 10:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man, Mark, and those of you who are still long GBP, may I know your exit target? Do you think cable may close near to 1.84 this week?

What's your prediction on tonight's US revised GDP? Do you think it would trigger a strong reversal on cable if the data's very good for the US?

Sorry for asking too much, but I'm just too impressed with this strong rally and I just want to know your view and conviction that make you keeping your position since last week. Thanks!

Normandy Nick 10:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:34 GMT May 27, 2004
You're nasty with John Hardy! lol! have you ever watch one of his audition? If not, try please. He talks about oil , interest rates, fixed incomed, currencies of course and stocks...he did screw with the last rally on stock but appologized lol! but most of the time he has the point ( well as far as I can check )no seriously, he is a professionnal who tells objectively what think the professionnal. He can't be right all the time but on this point he is like you and me...

Normandy Nick 10:36 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I see an interim support at 1.8230,

Nottingham 10:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 10:24 GMT

99% of so called professional analysts are next to useless...business tv worst culprits...try to avoid acting on such "advice" as invariably it will be wrong...work things out for yourself and you can do just fine...money and sentiment drive fx, nothing else...broken down it is all just numbers on a screen...don't over complicate matters...gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 10:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 1.8195. The short term target is 1.8024.

Tallinn viies 10:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 10:19 - you are welcome. it is pure pleasure to talk with real proffesional!

Normandy Nick 10:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I'm watching the audition of John Hardy (professionnal analyst)on forex television , he's saying the pound is in taking profit mode at 1.8250 and that euro would turn in bearish mode below 1.21. He is talking about a bullish dollar.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
10-Yr Bond (September) :- My daily cycle charts indicate that we have a good chance to see a low trading range at 107^23 - 108^01.

Aden PK 10:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Agressive traders can buy near 1.8225 level the 100 day moving average (short term support now)

UAE Oil man 10:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:12 GMT May 27, 2004

I am impressed, here i was thinking the market makers were dealer's and now i learn the BIG CONSPIRACY..
I thank you for your VAST knowledge and enlightment you have thus provided me.

---

Ab, it was a joke,like those guys selling rolex copies at subway stations...(Want some cheap euros...Man i got some at 50..they are pure stuff.)..

Aden PK 10:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Personally I feel Cable is buy on dips near 1.8190 or buy on stop loss order on breal of 1.8295 fibo level for reaching measured target of 1.8575/ 1.86 in max next 10days.

Aden PK 10:13 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi alll freinds,
Quoting from Market News Intl for cable lovers

BULLET: STERLING: Still looking confident at 6-week highs....
STERLING: Still looking confident at 6-week highs against the weaker dollar but some traders note the UK bank sales from NYC that greeted the cable move higher to $1.8200 on Wednesday and suggest the same names may be happy to sell cable early in the NYC session. Talk of further sterling demand may get linked to the sale of stg2.5 billion in new Gilts but there is little in the way of evidence to back this up. UK housing market data showed continuing strong gains in the housing market but further talk of the gradualist approach to UK rate increases from BOE&'s Nickell in the Times should serve to negate this upward pressure. Technically, cable faces tough resistance at $1.8280.

Tallinn viies 10:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 10:08 - dont spend all your money before you actually understand what makes fx world go round

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 10:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
oilman, you meant cheap eur right? not dlr?

UAE Oil man 10:08 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
viies,

Pssst...psssst want some ...want buy some Cheap $ at 1.2170..

In anycase you are talking of your "market-making" , im talking why the prices are moving up or down.
And sorry they are not moving up/down cause you deal them.

Ldn 09:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Seen Struggling To Maintain A 0.7100 Handle
IFR

jkt diablo 09:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
There's rumour that the UK bank which protected the 1.82 barrier yesterday may be protecting 1.8280 now.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 09:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Why a pair rallies?

'cos there are more BUYING positions than SELLING positions?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT May 27, 2004
GBP/USD : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.8263 - 1.8288.


... 1.7740 - 1.7871 - 1.8002 - 1.8133 - 1.8263 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT May 27, 2004
GBP/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.8150. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.7276 // 1.8339.


... // 1.8024 - 1.8087 - 1.8150 - 1.8213 - 1.8276 // 1.8339 ...

Normandy Nick 09:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
the pound is attempting to break its 50 ema on 5 minutes chart, 10/15 pips below would suggest the bigger fall but it could also rebound on it as it keeps doing since a " considerable period of time" now.....

Tallinn viies 09:50 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 09:32 - no mate I think you still dont understand what market actually is!

if you have been a marketmaker for certain time you understand what I mean....

if all the incoming calls take your right hand side whatever price you show then there are more buyers than sellers. if you are quoting two way all the time, then during normal days you are making pips out mechanical quoting beacuse sellers and buyers match most of position. if market is leaned to one way you are loosing money. how to avoid that? basically in one stage you got to grab all the offers from the market (currency moves of course higher again) and turn your position long again, just to make money when guys still taking your right hand side...

Normandy Nick 09:46 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ok thanx guys,
usd/chf should find a support around 1.2630, that could reverse the pressure...

Brisbane L 09:44 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Uk ECON: GfK May Consumer Confidence Index -2 vs -2 In April

Nottingham 09:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 09:38 GMT

came out a few minutes ago...non event...gl gt

sydney fg 09:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nick, this is all i see. due in 20 mins, whatever it is....

5/27/2004 6:00:00 AM (ny) GB CBI Quarterly Orders Survey -10.0 -14.0

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT May 27, 2004
GBP/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.8150. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.7276 // 1.8339.


... // 1.8024 - 1.8087 - 1.8150 - 1.8213 - 1.8276 // 1.8339 ...

Normandy Nick 09:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I thought there was the consumer confidence at 9:30 but nothing happened...does anyone knows something about it ? thanx

UAE Oil man 09:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Viies ,Let's not start again;)..
buyers are just more confident than the panicky sellers at present..

Tallinn viies 09:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw 09:09 - because more buyers than sellers :)

UAE Oil man 09:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 08:56 GMT May 27, 2004


I am long E$.
Please long my archives.

Normandy Nick 09:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
in case of bad datas (I'm pessimistic about the downside), tp 1.8215, re-enter 1.8200 for 1.8160

Warsaw 09:09 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas why Eur/Usd rally now ?

Normandy Nick 08:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I will close short trade on pound on a new high( ££censored it!*££), the bull conviction is dramatic!
buy order at 1.8290 if not filled before the datas for 1.8340

nyc sa 08:56 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Oil man ,are u still bearish eur/dollar ? still see 1.1370 ? thnx .

Sydney gf 08:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ditto

Moscow Mishanya 08:47 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
Many thanks
Same boat

LOL

sydney fg 08:47 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
just checked my blotters to make sure it's not me...phew ;)

Sydney gf 08:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc, no worry matey. thanks

FC PORTO Dragon 08:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

.....PORTO PORTO PORTO.....!!!!

...Keep Buying EUROS....!!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.1951 ... 1.2026 // 1.2064 - 1.2102 - 1.2140 - 1.2177 // ...

UAE Oil man 08:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ab,

For eurgbp long near 6550-6600-6630..Any of those should be ok.

There's still some room for a little more decline before it might actually start going the other way(that's up.).

It doesn't mean much as far as for the euro$ and gbp$ trend,just that GBP is stronger at present than beloved euro.
(as reflected in the prices in both E$ and Gbp$..thus the result in EGBP.)

shanghai bc 08:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

GF 07:56 -- I thought only National Bank boys were trading without stops..Good luck to your stops..

Normandy Nick 08:09 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Diablo,
"BTW, do you still keep your short position earlier at 1.8140? If so, my hats off to you for the courage and patience."
No, I stopped at b/e and I've been disappointed by the dodji and the bearish opening. I'm not a long term players, I never allow a loss of more than 50 pips and I know it's better to be in the bull clash. (I'm couragious, but not patient lol! ) GL/GT

Chambery FR JFB 08:03 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Morning all :-)

fwiw, got a sell signal (taken) here @1.2142. Happy trades :-)

Jay, when you have a minute, would appreciate you answer my request, thx :-)

Brisbane L 07:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
BC thanks

Sydney gf 07:56 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc how about USD/CHF 1.35? I am long and under deep water. TIA

hongkong ark 07:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
any data out in france and italy

Normandy Nick 07:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jkt diablo 07:43 GMT May 27, 2004
I don't know how will react the market with the datas. By the way I'm sure the people who collect those datas and publish them must be loaded! That's not fair! but that's not the point neither. There are four levels, very good, good, bad, very bad; If it's very good we could see 1.8340 but otherwise (and because I'm short!) the retracement could go on till the us datas. If it's bad or really bad 1.8140 or 1.8080. 1.8050 being a very strong support that, if it breaks , would mean there is a problem......

Rivonia PipPirate 07:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 07:45 GMT May 27, 2004

I fear this will result in Some sort of new taxes on the weekly bars!!
LOL
Minnesota Mark 07:44 GMT May 27, 2004
Pip Pirates Forex Fourm and dating service
Enquire within

shanghai bc 07:49 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

GAZA -- Good afternoon..Dollar bounce since Feb is over and the bias is now to the downside..Imho..Good trades..

HK Byron 07:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD 1.2180 may mark as this week's high again! fwiw

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
oilman and bc// THANKS so much!

bc// I hope that the train can give me one more chance ;) to load more. Almost picked the eur/gbp in a bad way.

During the dinner with Dr. Qindex, he inspired me one v. impt thing in FX.

Choose the weakest to attack, the strongest to follow........

Gaza Ibiza 07:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:39 GMT May 27, 2004 what has changed? thx?

UAE Oil man 07:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 07:40 GMT May 27, 2004

I fear this will result in Some sort of new taxes on the weekly bars!!

Minnesota Mark 07:44 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Pip Pirates Forex Fourm and dating service!

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:44 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
roller coaster....

jkt diablo 07:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Normandy Nick 07:31 GMT May 27, 2004
Noway to see a new high on pound now before the C.C, otherwise ,that would mean the conviction of the bulls is extremly strong and I hope those datas will be bad enough to push the pound back to 1.8210--->1.8140--->1.8080

I hope so. This strong rally to 1.8271 should result in a strong reversal. Do you think the coming UK consumer confidence data would move the market significantly?

BTW, do you still keep your short position earlier at 1.8140? If so, my hats off to you for the courage and patience.

Rivonia PipPirate 07:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 07:00 GMT Do not forget to occasionally recalibrate your Max Payne Meter. BTW with two large weekly GBP candles in your pocket I know a young airhostess living near you who would like to meet you.:-)

shanghai bc 07:39 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

AB 22:42 -- Good afternoon..Sory for late reply..Been busy whole day..Buy Cable,Eur/usd and Aud on dips and sit on them..Once Dollar Index .89 goes,Dollar may see new year low in coming months..Anything bought below Eur/usd 1.20 and aud/usd .70 look very cheap now..The tide has turned and it is now a time to ride the tide..Good trades..

UAE Oil man 07:39 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
There's very good and increasing liquidity in them,which might in the long term might dent somewhat their U.S counterparts.
It's still good time to hold them as i don't see rising raises come in europe very soon..

GER ad 07:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable,
Out at 1.8233

Normandy Nick 07:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Noway to see a new high on pound now before the C.C, otherwise ,that would mean the conviction of the bulls is extremly strong and I hope those datas will be bad enough to push the pound back to 1.8210--->1.8140--->1.8080

sydney fg 07:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
well how about that. aud crunched there while all else remains steady.

Nottingham 07:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
kiwi...6299 marks primary o/b...gl gt

sydney fg 07:25 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ab, i would do the same if usd/jpy didm't look like it was about to fall off a cliff

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
martin, it comes to your cannoning zone, will do a v. small short aud on exhaustive move.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
oilman, how's the eurbond mkt lately? TIA!

jkt diablo 07:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 07:12 GMT May 27, 2004
This is the second time in an hour I've seen 1.86+ mentioned as a possible target.

This cable movement since early Asian session looks unusually wild. I think anything can happen today to cable. It does look extremely overbought though. Anyway, I'm still recluctant to open any new position now.

UAE Oil man 07:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:54 GMT May 27, 2004

yes.

Normandy Nick 07:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
set a sell order on pound at 1.8269, I'll close the long euro in the same time. Euro, chf and pound look synchronized for a reversal and many players will be tented to short the pound at this overbought level before the consumer confidence. Stop 1.8290

Minnesota Mark 07:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Cable (currently 1,8240), up 100 pips and still bullish. We reiterate our bullish views: the market is moving upwards and is setting up a new 1,82-1,86 trading range.

This is the second time in an hour I've seen 1.86+ mentioned as a possible target.

MONACO OGA 07:08 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 27/05
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2160), 50 pips higher than yesterday opening with US data slightly weaker than expected (durable order goods and new home sales). We finally reached our much awaited 1,2170 target (200 period daily weighted moving average) and we are now looking for the market's reaction. On a technical point, 1,2150 defense was overcome and there are now talks of a 1,2200 option defense. We still think there are chances to reach 1,2350 since enough momentum was accumulated since April. Overnight there were talks of new terror threats in the US for this summer and oil prices are still near their highs, so the USD should remain under pressure. For today, we will be looking to build long positions on 1,2080 that appears to be a pivotal point. We are calling for range trading inside 1,2080-1,2180 short term with a 1.2350 target for next week.

Data out today:

US GDP Q1 expected 4.5% 12.30 GMT
US personnal consumption Q1 expected 3,9% 12.30 GMT
US GDP price deflator Q1 expected 2,5% 12.30 GMT
US initial jobless claims May 22 expected 335K 12.30 GMT

Gold at 391,50, with WTI July at 40,56

***JPY***
USD/JPY (111,40). The pair is currently hovering inside 111,20-112,10. We remain neutral and still wait for 110,50 level to turn bullish (115 still remains to be broken to open door to 114-120 range)
EUR/JPY currently 135,40, exactly like yesterday. We're looking for price action to hover around 135,50 today.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8240), up 100 pips and still bullish. We reiterate our bullish views: the market is moving upwards and is setting up a new 1,82-1,86 trading range.
EUR/GBP (0,6665) looking offered since a couple of weeks. We abandon our bullish stance and remain neutral. However if selling pressure accelerates, we'll go short with the flows for a test of 0,6620.Resistances at 0.6730 then 0,6760.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Minnesota Mark 07:08 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 07:02 GMT May 27, 2004 - Keep the faith.. GBP train still running..

ICT ML 07:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
So Ldn HAT sold cable at 1.8250.....and I am still long but frustrated that it doesn't act like a real bullish gbp-usd move of recent pasts.......have a TP at 1.8300 but might have to think this over again if it stalls out here.

nice to see ya again HAT.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 06:57 GMT - Today is critical, we have to wait and see. Certainly the most important thing is the closing rate of this week on Friday.

UAE Oil man 07:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 06:42 GMT May 27, 2004

hi there pippirate,
just feel the relief on every 30 pips down..in the forum and you'll know which side the market is going.
Maximum pain as usual..Quite a BDSM market ;)

nyc sa 06:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex , do I underrstand u r still bullish dollar against euro ? bearish dollar against yen ? do u expect a resumption of the dollar uptrend against all majors after the GDP announcement later in NY time ?

sydney fg 06:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
wow, someone just scooped up a load of usd/jpy at 111.20.
might be the floor till gdp data.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:56 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
indonesia newbie 06:52 GMT - I have to travel between Melbourne and Hong Kong.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:54 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone trade eur bonds here?

indonesia newbie 06:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
sorry it mean do you traveling in asia.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
10-Yr Bond (September) : The critical point of my daily cycle is positioning at 108^18. The daily cycle normal trading range is 108^07 - 108 ^30.


... // 108^07 - 108^18 - 108^30 // ...


The June contract should be used as a reference. The market is negative if it is trading below the key level (super magnet) at 109^19. Basically the market is consolidating between 108^20 - 109^28 for the last 6 trading days.


10-Yr Bond : Critical Level at 110^12
Tuesday May 18, 2004 - 07:22:51 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html10-Yr Bond : Critical Level at 110^12


The congested area of my monthly cycle charts is projected at 106^17 - 112^22 and the mid-point reference is 109^19 which is also the key quantised level. During early period of this month the market is basically vibrating around 109 ^19 with an expected magnitude of 108^25 - 111^05. The critical level of my monthly cycle charts is positioning at 110^12. The upper barrier is located at 111^29 // 112^22. The lower barrier is expected at 105^25 // 106^17. The odds are in favour of taking short position and the market has a good chance to tackle the supporting range at 105^25 - 106^17 later this month.


Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 105^25* // 106^17 - 107^10* - 108^02 - 108^27* - 109^19 - 110^12* - 111^04 - 111^29 // 112^22 - 113^14 ...

indonesia newbie 06:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT May 27, 2004
Thx Dr q for ur coment.so as far as i get from ur post is -ur predicted that the yen and dollar will become stronger in same time.Me too.
lastly dr q do traveling around asia??(to make seminar).

Brisbane 06:52 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro seems to have hit overbought levels

Ldn 06:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
Therefore what is your opinion of Aud/Yen?
Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
indonesia newbie 06:39 GMT - It is because I am expecting EUR/JPY to go time in a big time.

EUR/JPY : Heading Towards 132.34
Wednesday May 19, 2004 - 04:48:35 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html


EUR/JPY : The critical level of my 44-day cycle reference is located at 134.09 - 135.84 and the market rhythm is represented by 175 pips. The pattern of the 44-day frequency chart suggests that the market is likely to vibrate around the critical level with an expected magnitude of 1.75, i.e. 132.34 - 137.59. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 130.58, EUR/JPY has a potential to go all the way to 127.07.


44-Day Cycle Quantzed Levels


...127.07* ... // 130.58* - 131.46 - 132.34* - 133.22 - 134.09* - 134.97 - 135.84* - 136.72 - 137.59 * // ...

Rivonia PipPirate 06:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 06:18 GMT Daily speed ok, weekly a little worrying.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 06:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
sp, aud/nzd stopped out.... too bad.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 06:33 GMT - EUR/USD : With a little bit of luck we can see 1.1951 - 1.1986.

NY GG 06:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
shorting euro here with a stop at 1.2185. 100 pips expected r^r 5/1 GTs

indonesia newbie 06:39 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
Dr q i have been following ur coment since last month and i'm just want to ask something.
i see ur por about usd/jpy to maintain short but the eur/usd too, so i'm wrong or ???.bacoz i'm curently short usd/jpy.
ur coment apreciated.thx

Ldn 06:33 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
A sell ? where are you aiming for down side thanks

Ldn Hat 06:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP/USD at 1.8250 target 1.8150 and more IMHO Thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
UB GG 04:39 GMT May 27 - EUR/USD : I am afraid the market is ready to make an about turn at any time today.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
guangzhou lolo 04:35 GMT - GBP/USD : he following is still valid :-

Hong Kong Qindex 15:41 GMT May 25, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is challenging the upper barrier of my monthly cycle at 1.8060 // 1.8256 and the mid-point reference is 1.8158.


... // 1.8060 - 1.8109 - (1.8158) - 1.8207 - 1.8256* // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:11 GMT May 25, 2004
GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 1.7471* - 1.7668 - 1.7864* - 1.8060 // 1.8256* ...

UAE Oil man 06:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Morning,

Nice slow trend...

Normandy Nick 06:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
buy order at 1.2170 actually

Ldn 06:13 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas where is he ...??

Normandy Nick 06:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
buy order on euro at 1.2174 offer. Otherwise the current level is good for a short.

LONDON PW 06:01 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello,
I found a good resource for traders!
I tried it; it works!!!

http://www.TimeTrapSystem.com/x.cgi?adminid=2881&id=72874

Normandy Nick 05:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
set a buy order at 1.8240, let's see if London will buy it to get 1.8280, short then for 1.8212

Juneau CAR 05:51 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Man, quite a run.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 05:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
small long chf 1.2650.

USA Biscuit Boy 05:33 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Time to take profit on dollar shorts. Back in NY. GL and GT.

Ina mr.co'z 05:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy..you have good instincts... :-) ...gl !

GER ad 05:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable at 1.8244 tight S/L

Minnesota Mark 05:28 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Thank you gents - I might be tooting my own horn on that one but after a series of losses this will be my "even" position. With luck when I close this I will be doing real Forex with you guys rather than just the options. GL/GT's to you all.

Ldn 05:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ECB ready to cut rates if oil risk grows-Weber


http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040525/economy_ecb_weber_1.html

USA Biscuit Boy 05:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jkt diablo 05:01 GMT May 27, 2004

I think the Fed will have a hard time hiking next month......maybe in August. But you are right 50bps priced in for the rest of the year.

GUADALAJARA MEXICO PIPHUNTER 05:21 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
[USD/CHF] was thrusted lower by Asia names and model accts joined the selling spree to drive USD to touch a low of 1.2660 print. Mkt looks heavy once again in Asia despite small reaction to the Swiss KOF leading index yest. Suspected bombs found in Osaka train, should leave CHF to more strength, expect to see USD/CHG going below 1.2600 and to ideal target of 1.2500 s-term. However below 1.2650 will smell of stoploss.

GUADALAJARA MEXICO PIPHUNTER 05:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Some fireworks in the [GBP/USD] mkt as thin conditions in Asia, saw anewed buying led by US funds who said to be checking for just GBP 10 mln. The mkt gapped firmer on its own, paid immdiately to 1.8170 on stops and more spike to 1.8200. The pair finally landed at 1.8226 print. A choppy and liquidity is thin in Asia hence gaps are seen everywhere in GBP mkt. Dips are deemed shallow as FX players are logging to long GBP trades for now, targeting 1.8450 first then twds 1.8470 lvl last seen on 8 Apr

GUADALAJARA MEXICO PIPHUNTER 05:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY's price actions at the session low area are still clammy, and consolidation could last longer (like the 111.60 level yesterday). The aforementioned 111.45-35 was tested along with the Eur/Usd's 1.2150 attempt as mentioned earlier. Continue to watch actions at the level, and clear fall means 111.00-110.80 would be eyed (bids reported here).

houston st 05:07 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Minnesota Mark 04:48 GMT--nice position..I hear it's on it's way to 1.8450/70..good trades.

jkt diablo 05:01 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 04:48 GMT May 27, 2004
I've been long cable since 5/17 @ 1.7570 area. Still looking for 1.82

Amen to that, Mark! :-)
If I'm not mistaken Oil Man's still long cable since 1.7817 as well. So kudos to you both!

Even though the Fed plans to rise rate next month, I think it's already discounted. Citigroup estimates EUR at 1.24 and GBP at 1.87 in Q3. Well if cable keeps running like this, I think we may see it at 1.87 next month.

Anyway, I'm hoping tonight's US revised GDP data is super good so cable can retrace to 1.8000 at least, giving me chance to grab a few lots of cable at that time and catch up with you guys to ride the cable train :-)

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
THANKS once again, jf. I highly appreciate your impt help at times.

Exited the two longs from .6685 and .6666 at .6674.

Minnesota Mark 04:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jkt diablo - Did Nick turn his cable to a short? I've been long cable since 5/17 @ 1.7570 area. Still looking for 1.82

sar/tok jf 04:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ab i can see eur/gbp under 6550 personally - time will tell - gl

GER ad 04:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable,
out at 1.8192

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 04:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
jf, BIG thanks.

Couldn't imagine the eur/gbp will hurt but I think I can manage to exit with v. minimum loss.

UB GG 04:39 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:19 GMT May 27, 2004
Hello Mr.Q. I like to read your post. In EURUSD dairy chart it seems that EUR has more bullish sign cause EMA 20 crossed EMA 50. So in my opinion EUR will rise 1.23 - 1.24, GBP 1.83 -1.84, JPY 108 - 107 ... But next month US will raise interest rate and I do not believe that dollar index falls to 85.00 from 90.00. What's your 1 - 3 months view on EURUSD side pls?

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 04:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
i ve already shorted euro mr diabolo , euro challenged but not breacehed the last nite high

guangzhou lolo 04:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex, nice to see your around, any comment on gbp/usd, i shorted cable at 1.8187 last night, target 1.7920, stop at 1.8230. TIA

sar/tok jf 04:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
ab - think eurgbp is going to see more of a downmove - eurusd think its a trap buying up here again and we will be back under 1.2000 soon - just some position adjustment on terrorism fears over holidays upcoming makes mkt bit one way in very short term - gbpusd however despite eurusd movement maybe just sideways to consolidate recent upmove - some large eurgbp longs are held by few players so wud expect this to get unwound - gt

Hong Kong Qindex 04:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
sar/tok jf 04:17 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 03:41 GMT - I will post the daily cycle analysis on September contract after my lunch time appointment.

sar/tok jf 04:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
dr q - just want to say well done with usdyen lately- your work has been spot on -gl.gt

. 04:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
.

jkt diablo 04:11 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
I was quite surprised to see cable rising up to 1.8211 so quickly in this early Asian session. I only expected it to rise to 1.8180 and then go down. I was about to short it at 1.8210 but it now looks more bullish than before, so I prefer to just wait and see now.

Anyone has a clue about tonight's US GDP data? Is it going to be revised up or down? What do you feel about it?

Nick, are you still holding to your short position? What's your view on cable?

Is China still guarding the 1.2150 resistance for Euro?

Rye, NY et 03:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:59 GMT May 27, 2004
Rye, NY et 02:32 GMT - Let me know if you think my projection levels are not correct. It is because I don't trade 10-Yr bonds.

Thank you for your quick response to my question.

I was curious about the contract because of backwardation in the Ten-Year quarterly cycle contracts and the date of your post. It seemed to me more likely that your "Lower Barrier" (105-106) would apply to the September contract because it was trading a point lower than June. The levels certainly seem reasonable to me although, in my view, the bias has shifted in the very short term, to the upside. Thank you, again. GL/and Good Forecasts...


Hong Kong Qindex 03:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : If the market can penetrate through the weekly cycle lower barrier at 109.17 // 109.70* within the next two days, one should consider to roll over the position to next week even if you are a short term traders.

Singapore Sfx 03:37 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
EBS high eurusd 1.2155 paid.

OK SZ 03:34 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
biscuit, yes it was taken out..

USA Biscuit Boy 03:33 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
What was the high on ebs for eur/usd please? Was the option barrier at 1.2150 taken out? My platform shows 52 bid.

melbourne farmacia 03:31 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Good to see market moving during Asian period.....
Gbp/Usd's moving between my system levels - 1.8102 & 1.8187, odds suggest 1.8240 next, if not down she goes imo..

Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : If you are interested in graphic presentaion, click the following :-

USD/JPY : Weekly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 03:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:26 GMT May 22, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The pattern of my weekly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade between 109.70 - 113.88. The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 110.75. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 109.17 // 109.70. The upper barrier is positioning at 113.36 // 113.88. The market rhythm is represented by 105 pips (k=1.045) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 109.70 - 113.88 (Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 113.88).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 109.17 // 109.70* - 110.23 - 110.75* - 111.27 - 111.79* - 112.31 - 112.83* - 113.36 // 113.88* ...


USA Biscuit Boy 03:22 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Dollar is going down yet people are still buying it.....hmmm

houston st 03:20 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

NY GG 03:18 GMT--looking good..much luck with it..btw, loved you in "Wall Street".

sydney balmain 03:19 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
selling gbp here 1.8210 against 100 ma 1.8220 cheap trade with good r/r.

Bahrain within 10 pips 03:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone...

NY GG 03:18 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
well, my yen short is still holding out, hope to see 108.30 by Friday. lets see. GTs

OK SZ 03:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks Q..got it

OK SZ 03:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, may I ask your euro view short term please..do we see 122 today or below 120?

GER ad 03:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Short Cable at 1.8210 tight S/L

Hong Kong Qindex 03:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2051 - 1.2152.

houston st 03:14 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 02:56 GMT--I'm in..wish us luck!
Talk to you in 2 months...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:14 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:05 GMT - GBP/JPY : I will post the updated analysis later this week.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:12 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:05 GMT - The time frame is the same as USD/JPY. It would take 1 - 2 months.

nyc sa 03:05 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Thnx Dr Qindex , what is ur time frame and target for the GBP/JPY retracement ?

Montréal Taro 03:03 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 16:41 GMT May 26, 2004
"My instincts are telling me to buy dollars for a short term retracement so I am selling them!!!"

I like the way you think, mate.

Ldn 03:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney trader with top European bank says gold now looking toppish on intraday basis, expecting slight pullback this afternoon.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:59 GMT - GBP/JPY : It is consolidating in the high range and my bias is on the downside.

OK SZ 03:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Taro, sounds good..gl, gt

houston st 03:00 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 02:53 GMT--I appreciate you giving me more details..my timeframe varies, depending on the current market levels, trends, the value of my warchest, and my mojo..if entered I will consider this a longer-term play..and you're right - 20 to 30 pips difference shouldn't be a deal breaker..many thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 02:32 GMT - Let me know if you think my projection levels are not correct. It is because I don't trade 10-Yr bonds.

nyc sa 02:59 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Qindex ,good evening , what about GBP/JPY direction?

Montréal Taro 02:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 02:53 GMT
My number are same as yours. looks good

Hong Kong Qindex 02:56 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
houston st 02:40 GMT - If you are a position trader I guess you don't care too much about 20 -30 pips difference.

Chicago Irish 02:55 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
FBI looking for the following Link

OK SZ 02:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
my euro daily pivot is at 12106 and I have r1 at 12135 r2 at 12166 s1 is at 12075 s2 12046

Brisbane L 02:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
What is holding the Aussie back a couple of things,risk aversion and Election with any fall in the Equities and terror attack the VIX index shoots up and Aud become a victim

Hong Kong Qindex 02:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
houston st 02:40 GMT - USD/JPY : The mid-point reference of 105 - 104.86 is 109.93. However we do see some profit taking around 111.16 in the last 2 sessions. If you are a position trader the odds are good that we can see something below 105 within 2 months.

Ldn 02:48 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
BOE"s Nickell Plays Down Prospect Of UK Rates "Doubling"- Times

OK SZ 02:45 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
good evening all, I stil believe we don't move above 12150 yet..if we do should top at 12180 for now..will wait a bit before selling..rumor of china protecting the 2150 barrier

houston st 02:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Q--is there a particular level you would wait for to sale usd/jpy, or does it matter at this point? tia.

always enjoy your valuable posts..mucho luck to you.

Gold Coast martin 02:40 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
SORRY..THAT SHOULD BE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM ..

Hong Kong Qindex 02:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 02:35 GMT - AUD/USD : It is negative.

Gold Coast martin 02:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
LDN....Purely short term profit taking before resuming medium to long term positions as they still see aud downward bias is still in play medium to short term....good trades to all...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:38 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 02:32 GMT - Thank you for your kind words. Whenever weekly, monthly or 3-month cycle analysis is used the most recent contract will be applied. In the the case of 10-Year Bond, the June contract is the appropriate one.

Ldn 02:35 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex do you share Gold Coast Martins view on negative aud

Rye, NY et 02:32 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
Thank you for sharing your excellent analyses with the Forum.
If you have a moment...
In reference to your post in the Research section:
10-Yr Bond : Critical Level at 110^12
Tuesday May 18, 2004 - 07:22:51 GMT
Which contract are you using?
TIA

Ldn 02:30 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
Why are they selling it?? Aussie

mtl joe 02:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hello...can someone give me their mid-long term views on eur/aud.....thx in advance

Gold Coast martin 02:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
KL...yes that is what i am suggesting ..also the info i have of major money parked at the 7138-7152 resistance consolidates my technical view in the aud for the next 3 sessions...

KL KL 02:20 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:53 GMT May 27, 2004 , R u suggesting seel on rally strategy near the ema??

USA Biscuit Boy 01:57 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 01:53 GMT May 27, 2004

Kudos! Although I am on the other side of that bet good to see some conviction calls!!!

Eilat Dolphin 01:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Houston/ Roger!

Gold Coast martin 01:53 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
HK..ab..nzd 53 in 6 months....lol...HK...the aud will not breach the 7150 resistance barrier in the short term unless there is a major terrorist attack...it will trade range between 7065-7115 for the next 3 days until it resumes its previous downward bias...will post on the next trend within 2 days...g/l g/t

Hong Kong Qindex 01:50 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 01:43 GMT - I havn't update my analysis on FTSE.


The following is still valid :-

DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3
Thursday May 6, 2004 - 04:28:13 PM GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html

DJIA : Heading Towards 9981.3

The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle is positioning at 9981.3. A projected resistant level has been established at 10305.4 - 10444.4 and a projected supporting level is expected at 9518.3 - 9657.1.

Brisbane L 01:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Australia's PM Calls Press Briefing At 0200 GMT

KL KL 01:43 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT May 27, 2004

How about the FTSE or DOW...appreciate some of your views...tia. are you bullish or bearish??

Ldn 01:36 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Australian New Capex Below Expectations
Australian 1Q New Capex -2.5% Vs +2.0% Consensus

Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:52 GMT May 21, 2004
Nikkei-225 (CME) : Critical Resistance at 11057


The key quantised level of my monthly cycle chart is located at 11057 and the market will maintain a positive tone if it can close above it. It is likely that the market has hit the monthly cycle low around the quantized level at 10423 (low=10420). A supporting barrier is positioning at 10687 - 10740. The odds are in favour of maintaing a long position.


Nikkei-225 Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels

Set A : ... // 10423* - 10582 - 10740* - 10898 - 11057* - 11216 - 11374* - 11691* // 11850 ...


Set B : ... 10132 // 10502* - 10687 - 10872* - 11057 - 11242* - 11427 - 11612* - 11798 // ...

Saihat 01:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
DALIY
EUR
S-1.2077-1.2060-1.2042-1.2025-1.2007
R-1.2147-1.2164-1.2182-1.2199-1.2217

JPY
S-111.21-111.02-110.81-110.61-110.40
R-112.02-112.21-112.43-112.62-112.83

EURJPY
S-134.76-134.56-134.33-134.12-133.90
R-135.62-135.82-136.05-136.26-136.48

Hong Kong Qindex 01:29 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:21 GMT May 25, 2004
Crude Oil : My 3-month projection profiles indicate that the market is basically vibrating around the quantized level at 40.59 with an expected magnitude of +/- 1.58, i.e. 38.78 - 41.94.


Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection Profile


... // 38.78* - 39.57 - 40.36* - 41.15 - 41.94* // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:45 GMT May 25, 2004
Crude Oil (Monthly Cycle) : My monthly cycle charts indicate that the market is challenging the upper barrier of my monthly cycle at 41.68 // 42.14. The distribution profile of my monthly cycle charts show that the current expected trading range is 38.92 - 41.68. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 38.00* // 38.46 - 38.92* - 39.38 - 39.84* - 40.30 - 40.76* - 41.22 - 41.68* // 42.14 - 42.60* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:27 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 110.74 - 111.79. A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 112.12 - 112.44.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:26 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
houston st 01:23 GMT - Very hot! Keep an eye on Crude Oil and Nikkei-225.

houston st 01:23 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 01:17 GMT May 27, 2004
USD/JPY : The following is still valid

USD/JPY : A Strong Pull-Back is Imminent


Q--is the potato getting hot again? tia..gl/gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The following is still valid

USD/JPY : A Strong Pull-Back is Imminent
Sunday May 16, 2004 - 02:52:48 GMT
QIndex - www.global-iew.com/beta/qindexguide.html


USD/JPY (44-Day Cycle) : The key quantized level of my 44-day cycle reference is positioning at 114.86. The pattern of my 44-day cycle frequency and probability charts suggest that the market is going to retreat after it has reached its target around 114.86. It is likely that we can see 109.93 - 112.39 trading range within this week. USD/JPY has a potential to pull-back all the way to 105.00 - 107.47 within 2-3 weeks. We will change our view if the market can trade above 115.53. See details in our weekly cycle analysis. USD/JPY : Weekly Cycle Charts


... // 105* - 106.24 - 107.47* - 108.70 - 109.93* - 111.16 - 112.39* - 113.63 - 114.86* // ...

houston st 01:17 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   

Eilat Dolphin 01:13 GMT May 27, 2004

Japan's April RETAIL SALES falls 0.8% yoy. Large scale store retail sales is down 1.3% yoy.

jkt diablo 01:16 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Nick, are you still bullish for cable today? UK Gfk consumer confidence and CBI industrial trends data are coming at 9.30/10.00 GMT today and terror rumours are still weighing against the USD.

I had long cable at 1.8175, still regretting I didn't exit at 1.8190 when seen, cause being too sure it'd break 1.82 :-(
Fortunately I placed a sell order at 1.8165 before I went out that got filled so I only lost 10 pips.

IMHO, 1.2070/80 is a strong support for euro and if not broken should give it another leg to go to 1.2180. For cable, I see buyers emege around 1.8100. If broken, the next strong support is 1.8020. As long as cable is trading above 1.8020, there's still a good chance for it to target 1.82+.

Eilat Dolphin 01:13 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn/ HI! Would you happen to have tose Japanese retail sales numbers that were due 20 minutes ago ?

Saihat 01:07 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
PP(daily range)

EUR-1.1213-1.2088...AVR 1.2106
JPY-111.62-111.71...AVR 111.67

EURJPY-135.30-135.19...AVR 135.26

sydney fg 01:03 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
>atlanta 00:58 GMT May 27, 2004
>Any thoughts on near term direction for EUR/USD? Thanks in >advance.

sideways.

Ldn 01:02 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Eases As More Japanese Selling Noted IFR

atlanta 00:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on near term direction for EUR/USD? Thanks in advance.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:58 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
martin, your view on aud appreciated.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:42 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Porto PJT 00:41 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:18 , thanks, really happy.

Calabash TarHeel 00:15 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:04 GMT May 27, 2004

Thanks ab, have a great trading day.

TarHeel

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 00:04 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel:
dlr/cad range 1.36-1.4 for 1-2 more weeks.

Normandy Nick 00:03 GMT May 27, 2004 Reply   
Ok! a new clue has confirmed the retracement on pound, chf and euro.They all open above/below critical level... then next targets are:
euro---->1.2080
chf----->1.2770
pound--->1.8080

 




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