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Forex Forum Archive for 06/04/2004

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Chicago JMI 23:34 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver GG 22:27 GMT June 4, 2004

I believe euro is still headed lower. It might top out at about 1.2400-2450, but I think we will see it below 1.1700 before we see 1.3000. The recently upleg has been driven mostly by panic USD selling with no real fundamental basis behind it. It becomes pretty apparent when you look as USD/CHF. It's only a couple hundred pips from its previous lows, while euro is over 600 pips from its highs. This seems to be the uncommon view, but I think I am correct because there are way too many people who think the bull is back on euro.

Dublin CK 23:12 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver GG 22:27 GMT June 4, 2004

Good chart, nice analysis. The new name of the game for the moment is inflation, watch out for all those figures and the CRB index (Excl Oil).

Non-farm payrolls were the final piece of the puzzle for growth in the US, good numbers will be expected each and every month.

I see inflation and its effects on interest rates, FX,bonds and equities becoming more and more important for the direction of the dollar.

Happy weekend.........

Vancouver GG 22:27 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
The USD breached it's January trend line on a closing basis today on the G7 basket of currencies. That's significant and
that's bearish.

http://tinyurl.com/37g89

The EURO still looking strong on all charts above the 45 Min.

Looks like a little sloppyness until it breaches 1.23 on Monday.

RSI lines still strong.

Any opinions??

Ldn 21:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Ny could you post the link if possible thanks

ny amc 21:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
very interesting article in the july issue of money magazine on page 36a by richard medley

Normandy Nick 20:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
By the way GEP, you are a good trader( very relevant opinions as far as I can check), I was worry not to see you around the last days , take my email, [email protected],
everyone is welcomed actually, let's do a conference on monday, I've done 250 pips this week, and I want everyone to profit of it. Life is too short and the Earth gets warmer and warmer....don't judge me, just my opinon for or against dollar...Have a nice week end and may the force be with you!

Barcelona Tony 20:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
nothing at yahoo ok

Gen dk 20:11 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona Tony 20:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
do u receive me gep?

Barcelona Tony 20:05 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP U AROUND???

Normandy Nick 19:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I told you!!!
euro 1.2300 if chf prints 1.2430! I'm right so often! (sorry, I'm a bit drunk on friday night! have a good week end!) big kisses from my girl lol!

Calabash TarHeel 19:40 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Wishing everyone a great weekend and profitable coming week.
See Ya Mon.

Bah Bahrain1 19:08 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
small long GBPCHF @ 2.2790 s/l at 2.2740 p/t at 2.2850 GL
Have a nice w/e frnds..................see you Sunday nite.

Dublin CK 19:02 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Its been a fun Friday, I think the bond market have turned a corner and going for a new direction. Interesting what will happen in the months to come in all markets.

Have a good and safe weekend,

Slan CK

Bah Bahrain1 18:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi Frnds, Any one buying GBPCHF here??? GL.

Calabash TarHeel 18:42 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:33 GMT June 4, 2004

Hey GEP, just ignore such comments, I'm sure the rest of us do. Stops are all about preserving ones equity. Pity the trader who doesn't know how much he can afford to have at risk at any given time. If someone is really getting hurt by a 50 pip stop, his positons are too large to start with. IMVHO
gl,gt

Dallas GEP 18:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Ok really Angus!!!, Tell you what I make more money doing this than you can count so I personally am not too conerned about moving stops to account for KNOWN support levels. This is NOT a static environment so if you are not flexible then you need to be doing something else!!! Little things like false breaks I guess don't happen in your make beleive world. Now I will say that someone with limited equity should indeed NOT move stops generally beyond what would be a logical level because the ability to hold the postion of course is much less and the damage percentage wise would be much greater than someone with larger equity positons.

Sydney Angus 18:21 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Lowering stops and raising stops, as we have seen happen today in the Canadian dollar, only guarantee larger losses. This is a BEGINNER mistake. We have to be disciplined with our original orders people.

Dallas GEP 18:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
THANKS for CADDY prices guys. I will email you a little later AG THANKS!!!

CAIRO AG 18:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Hello my friend... well, am arround... problem is that i lost the phone memory and will be able to get the backup TOMORROW as its here a working day.... Even my yahoo password!! Only thing working is the msn hotmail which mail is exactly like alll of my addresses except its at hotmail...

U may mail me the number... and i will take it from their or try to call me if ur phone was fixed.



Calabash TarHeel 18:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT June 4, 2004
AG, if you are around please call me.

Guys where is usd/cad price now please???

1.3492 bid

Tor Pumpkin 18:08 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
1.3490-93

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
AG, if you are around please call me.

Guys where is usd/cad price now please???

LHR B747 17:50 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin: thanks for your opinion, I will wait to 1.2160 to cash out and will start scalping all over again as within four weeks half year is gone and it is about time to the satisfication to replace greed.

Have a nice weekend to you and to all good people around.


GT

Sydney Alimin 17:45 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
ok guys, i dont think there will be any significant moves from now on till NY close, so have a good weekend everyone, see u next week

CAIRO EGYPT 17:32 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN//

without getting me wrong my friend.... do u still carry the same view on aussie??? if so, where should it close to be still looking for the downside??? Thanks

GL & GT

Sydney Alimin 17:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: if you hold euro short from 1.2306, that's a very good point to short in this dead range we have had since 2 weeks ago, i would go on holding it, stop loss is your choice though

Sydney Alimin 17:26 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: LOL yes blame the perpetrator 'booring'....my view is as long as we dont hit 1.2350 first and beyond, there is a good chance to see 1.2100 again (personally i would like a bit lower, maybe 1.2050) but then we will never know if sh*t happens next week

LHR B747 17:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, do you see 1.2100 coming soon (within two weeks)?
I am bit down as BOORING robed me...it is easier to blame booring than to face greed...

GT

Sydney Alimin 17:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
haha yes i did that once too, missed by 2 pips and the next direction was opposing my initial direction!

LHR B747 17:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 17:14 GMT: second lesson for today :)

Sydney Alimin 17:14 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: 'boring' means big move in one direction, 'booring' with that extra o means big move in BOTH directions like today! LOL

LHR B747 17:13 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 17:12 GMT: did you see what greedy means?! :)

Sydney Alimin 17:12 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: do you see now what 'booring' means? :)

Hong Kong Qindex 17:11 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 17:05 GMT - We don't run projection for 2 weeks.

LHR B747 17:10 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q: Sorry, I did not saw your post of a minute earlier.

Have good time.

GT

LHR B747 17:05 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q: good night to you in HKG; may you provide me with your view regarding EUR/USD for 2-3 weeks?

TIA and have a good time

GT

Hong Kong Qindex 17:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 16:54 GMT - EUR/USD : My view is still the same.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection reference is 133.33 - 137.06 and the mid-point reference is 135.20.


... // 133.33* - 134.27 - 135.20 - 136.13 - 137.06* // ...

Sydney bl 17:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
thank you Dr Qindex, wish you have a nice weekend

Hong Kong Qindex 16:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 16:46 GMT - EUR/JPY : The odds are in favour of taking short position.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 16:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
added one more 1.5225.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 16:56 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hope the eur/chf 35 pips s/l is enough.

Sydney Alimin 16:54 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex, do you see any change in eur/usd's trading range after today's data?TIA

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 16:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
attacking the option during NY lunch, smart....

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 16:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
move eur/chf limit a bit hihger
now longed 1.5227.
tight sl.

Sydney bl 16:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex what's your view on EUR/JPY thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 16:44 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:43 GMT June 4, 2004
USD/JPY : Quantized Level of 3-Month Projection


... 87.78 ... 93.87 ... 96.92 // 99.96 - 103.00 - 106.05 - 109.09 - 112.14 // 115.18 ... 118.23 ...

LHR B747 16:35 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 16:33 GMT: looks very intersting case...maybe it should be enough for the options, my contract with them is commission free options/futures.

Thanks again...!!!


GT

sf mike 16:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR// Those are futures rates and contracts. Not the same as spot rates. CME is the exchange for currency futures here.

LHR B747 16:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 16:28 GMT: WOW, on the platform that I use the low is 1.2133...are CME good? :)


I print that out and will contact with them...let's see what will come out....thank you!!!

Thanks again!!!

GT


Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : High probability values are building up in the extreme range of 93.87 - 106.05.

Jakarta onk 16:32 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys, will it still any big moves from now to todays' close?
Any one have Idea, what pair to chopy trade?
Thanks

LHR B747 16:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 16:28 GMT: WOW, on the platform that I use the low is 1.2133...are CME good?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market rhythm of my 3-month projection profile is represented by 304.4 pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:29 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Mla Evan 16:25 GMT - You may be right.

sf mike 16:28 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Anybody shared this yet. http://equivalents.cme.com:443/index.html Order flows from the CME.

LHR B747 16:27 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Greed is the name of the game...

I had meeting today, so between 13:00-16:00 GMT I had no access to any computers and/or trading tools/information.
I was holding EUR short from 1.2306 and some EUR put options both while buying with 1.2150 as target, this morning I had the greedy mood and left T/P @ 1.2130...now it is very easy for all of you to see how much greed costs.


Just sharing my daily lesson, it is for free to all of you.


GT (without greed) :)

Dallas GEP 16:27 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ST, that's EXACTLY why I put stop @ 1.3460

Hong Kong Qindex 16:26 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:25 GMT June 4, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection profile is 109.09 - 112.14 and the mid-point reference is 110.62.


... // 109.09* - 109.86 - 110.62 - 111.38 - 112.14* // ...

houston st 16:25 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX--me either..sold some 111.81 during the frenzy, but couldn't resist buying it back @ 110.35..easy $ is hard to turn down, especially on Friday..take care.

Mla Evan 16:25 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex 16:21, I doubt it and feel there is more to go this month.

jkt diablo 16:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I'm off for today. The market's very uncertain now so I better save my bullets for next week. Have a great weekend guys! :-)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:21 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
houston st 16:15 GMT - USD/JPY : I would not be surprised that we have seen the monthly cycle high today.

houston st 16:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP--here's a little blip on the usd/cad..good luck & good weekend.

USD/CAD is coming under heavy pressure from US bank sales, as the pair trades below 1.3500 for the first time since late April. Fund bids are attempting to prop the pair for now, but momentum types are eyeing stops on a clear break below the figure, from 1.3490. The next target for bears comes at the key technical support level at 1.3467 (April 27 low). Some contacts suggest that a break of this level could turn this market very bearish once again.

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
1,3460 stop now on usd/cad longs

houston st 16:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 16:12 GMT--thanks for the reply..I noticed on your forum that the range on this pair has steadily declined..good news for my short..your posts have benefited me again this week..many thanks & have a great weekend.

LAX-LGB SNP 16:13 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
short and breakin even on eurusd, eurjpy - hoping to cash in on retracement
closed gbpchf and usdcad shorts and going to look for better entry levels next week after weekend trip to 110+ desert reorients the mind ;-) TTYL TC + have fun

Hong Kong Qindex 16:12 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
houston st 16:03 GMT - USD/JPY : A minimum of 106.05 or lower.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:10 GMT June 4, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection profile is 109.09 - 112.14 and the mid-point reference is 110.62.


... // 109.09* - 109.86 - 110.62 - 111.38 - 112.14 // ...

Aden PK 16:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi all loonie lovers,
BULLET: DOLLAR-CANADA: Enjoying decent two-way flows around..
DOLLAR-CANADA: Enjoying decent two-way flows around C$1.3500 area of session lows, a trader reports, noting Canadian name demand for USD appears to be offsetting model-driven account demand for C$ vs Aussie and yen. Earlier reports mentioned bids in place at C$1.3500/10 but also warned of stops below.

Provided by: Market News International

houston st 16:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX--do you still feel like we will see something below 105 in the next 2 months? tia.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : My 3-month projection profile indicates that the odds are in favour of taking short position when the market is trading below a projected resistant level positioning at 112.14 - 112.19.

mex sjs 15:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
just longed usdchf 1.2428 s/l 1.2400 tgt above 1.2500...anyway will close before NY close...risk reward attractive....

BEIRUT MK 15:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk kevin, it might work, this is my assumption
after all, iam not a god.

HK Kevin 15:50 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 15:44 GMT, many thnaks. Does inverse SHS ususally work at the bottom, not at the top. May be some techncal traders could help me on this. I have sold this pair at 136.48 with tight stop.

BEIRUT MK 15:48 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
short usdchf at 1.2425 target 1.2360 stop 1.2490

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 15:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
long eur chf 1.5225 limit placed.

BEIRUT MK 15:44 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk kevin, simple eurjpy broke 136.35 (4 times hit before)
inverse H&S.

NY GG 15:43 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
selling eurusd 1.2260 for 1.2150 stop 1.2315

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 15:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NY close looks extraordinary crucial now.

Calabash TarHeel 15:35 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT June 4, 2004
Longed USD/CAD long @ 1.3510, stop @ 1.3480, 1.3550 intial target

Same here, filled at 1.3510, s/l 1.3460

gl.gt

HK Kevin 15:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 14:57, just curiosity. What signal you have to long EUR/JPY at 136.45?

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 15:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
martin, would like to see if u have view on dlr/cad.

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Longed USD/CAD long @ 1.3510, stop @ 1.3480, 1.3550 intial target

Closed E/y short @ 136.30 from 136.50 for +20. Won't test continuation on this pair

Barcelona Tony 15:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP are you online ??

ln 15:00 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
London Firewire 14:58 GMT. good luck to you.

Dallas GEP 14:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
STOP on E/Y is 136.80 TP is 135.80

London Firewire 14:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I think:
USD /CHF will climb up from RIGHT HERE breaking range on upside.
USD/JPY will see 105 next week.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
For me eur/usd looks a fantabulous buy at 1.2080. Whether we see this level before 1.24 is up to the FX gods tho.

BEIRUT MK 14:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
long eurjpy at 136.45 target 137.50

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:56 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 14:49 GMT June 4, 2004
I agree and I was also frustrated at my little problems with the platform. When I can’t think straight I shut everything down so I won’t make any more mistakes. I have learned my lesson I hope with this new platform. Every platform has its glitches and I paid to find out about this one. Not the end of the world so I have some ground to cover now to get back in the saddle for this month before the dull days of summer hit us. Thanks for the comments and have a good weekend.

OK SZ 14:50 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
$index falling further now..still below 89 so looks like buy euro on dips till the $ can break above 89

Oakland Daimyo 14:49 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:07 GMT June 4, 2004

You did the right thing. USD is hurting but I think this one still has a few tricks left in it. Loss of EUR/USD 1.2250 after current test is negative for this pair. Operators selling in order to protect the 1.21--1.23 range. We could easily see 1.2150 again as this would not hinder the uptrend (better chance to buy). Liquidity is starting to dry up so I don't think real money players are gonna push through (start b/o) It appears that todays moves have been electronic order books only. Those who went long earlier are starting to reconsider. GL & GT

Dallas GEP 14:44 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
136.50 SHORT on E/Y could go either way

Vilnius Phoenix 14:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Dublin CK 14:29 GMT June 4, 2004
I just relaxed little bit to much after predictible April and May ... Good trade for everybody.

Dublin CK 14:29 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Phoenix 14:02 GMT June 4, 2004

My take on it, was that the figure was anticipated and expected. Therefore no surprise or major movement from the centre point. It had already been factored in.

Remembers March's figure, strengthened the dollar by 200 pips, similar in April. But May, the news, is old news when it released.

The market is in sell dollar mode for the time being.

L.A. Igrok 14:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 14:15 GMT June 4, 2004//// I would say 1.42-48 before the end of the year.

GER ad 14:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5238

Van jv 14:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Possibly I assign too much interest and involvement to central banks---somehow I suspect they are often present to keep the market, when possible, within ranges that they consider beneficial to their and regional/worlds economic health,or just some level of at least temporary stability......????

mex sjs 14:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LA Igrok, good to see you....what is your medium term view on usdchf? say, 3-6 months..TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Out of my long eur/usd and I will call it a day (bloody day). Well everyone have a good and safe weekend see you on the other side.

hong kong nt 14:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin -- 0.685 and 0.615 maybe the monthly lows of AUD and NZD respectively...

L.A. Igrok 14:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I suppose USD/JPY is likely to hit 112.30 today or, perhaps, on Monday.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH no problem. Like I said I would have to put this one behind me as experience with my new platform I guess.

Dallas GEP 14:04 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
110.28 blu

Vilnius Phoenix 14:02 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Unbelivible ! So good news for $ and so strange reaction. Do somebody know WHY ? It was already calculated early this week ?

Newcastle GH 14:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL,
If it is OK with you I would like to ask Jay fo your email. I would like to discuss platforms privately with you.
I had 3 live platforms open and two froze totally and the other I had success with.

Sydney bl 13:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Bandung BLU 110.32 on my platform

Bandung BLU 13:56 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hi, what is the low for usdjpy today
is it 109.79 or 110.27?
thank you

Sydney Alimin 13:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
you made good calls this week martin, congrats on your aussie shorts
have a nice weekend mate

Gold Coast martin 13:41 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NZD still has further pain sharing to close close to 6070 range,euro has been spared tonite and will close around 122,the aud will close at 6895..monday is shaping up as major pain sharing week for euro as i posted yesterday...looking for 119 range by wednesday next week...good trades and good week end...

Hong Kong Qindex 13:39 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:23 GMT June 4, 2004
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 109.66 - 110.29 - 110.93 - 111.56 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:58 GMT June 4, 2004
10-Yr Bond (September) : The critical level of my daily cycle is located at 107^31 - 108^08. The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 107^11 - 108^08. The lower barrier is expected at 107^01 - 107^11 and the upper barrier is positioning at 108^18 - 108^28. The odds are in favour of taking a short position.


... 107^01 // 107^11 - 107^21 - (107^31 - 108^08) - 108^18 // 108^28 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:57 GMT June 4, 2004
Spot Gold : The key quantized level of my daily cycle is located at 389. The upper barrier is positioning at 390.8 // 392.6 and the mid-point reference is 391.7. The lower barrier is expected at 381.7 // 383.5 and the mid-point reference is 382.6. The odds are in favour to sell on rallies and it is very likely that the market will challenge the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 381.7 // 383.5.


... 381.7 // 383.5 - 385.4 - 387.2 - 389 - 390.8 // 392.6 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:36 GMT June 4, 2004
Crude-Oil (September) : The key quantized level of my daily cycle is located at 39.32. The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 38.37 - 40.27. The lower barrier is expected at 37.42 // 38.37 and the mid-point reference is 37.89. The upper barrier is positioning at 40.27 // 41.21 and the mid-point reference is 40.74. The preferred trading strategy is to sell on rallies.


... 37.42 // 38.37 - (39.32) - 40.27 // 41.21 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:17 GMT June 3, 2004
EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


Set A : ... // 133.00 - 133.43 - 133.86* - 134.30 - 134.73 - 135.16 - 135.59* - 136.03 // 136.46 ...

ln 13:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
my stop got hit on euro long by 11 pips. think market is square and it will take someone like bc to show us the way toward a weaker dollar.

Nottingham 13:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, the initial up then down are easily explainable by first the release and secondly the revisions...the remainder of the action so far falls in line with a consensus number...gl gt

Dallas GEP 13:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LAst post for a while.... Basically believe what happened is that USD was bought of the RUMOUR or a LARGE number (whisper rumour over 300K) and when data was LESS than the rumour so USD was sold on the FACT.

Now that number is still GOOD so whether of not USD makes it back to pre-data release area is in question (my guess is YES).

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I will take it in stride and chuck it up as experience with my new platform. I also have a long intraday position for eur/usd and that does not look healthy either. 1.2220 looks like support for now will see.

ny amc 13:34 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
miami............me too. got the worst print ever on both the buy and sell and there answer to that was .....oh well

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
You got that right GEP that and a little freeze up on my platform cost me about 140 pips today.

HK [email protected] 13:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I like this piece...
The U.S. economy has kicked in to high gear, creating another 248,000 payroll jobs in May, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.6 percent. That's because tens of thousands of jobless are renewing their search for work in the wake of an improving labor market.

If economic growth is waking up jobless people from their hibernation... can anyone know or has an indicator of how many more are still hibernating????

Gen dk 13:30 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 13:28 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Well I basically will trade in almost any environment BUT my advice FWIW is if you are square now, I WOULD NOT enter possie at this time because it is VERY uncertain as to direction.

The payoll numbers were basically GOOD numbers and AT LEAST should have held USD steady but after the intial push quite the opposite happened. So WHY did that happen??? Well as usual there were BIGGER forces at work, at least bigger than us measely specs!!!!

Gen dk 13:27 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa ac 13:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Miami and ln.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:21 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 13:18 GMT June 4, 2004
At this point unsure on where the market is heading both resistance and support on this bloody range have not been broken yet.

GA TJ 13:21 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 13:09 GMT June 4, 2004
Kinda agree with you. But what made this report scenario a little different is 1) yesterdays report didn't have much movement, 2) the preceeding 24 hrs leading up to this report had a very narrow range which leads me to think that we were in a thin market (Lot of sidelined players) 3) The Big Money short term players were probably having a sub par week and were very hungary.

I think this is a good formula for wicked market action. And it was. I think we are going to revisit the the 30 Min bar leading up to the report and then we will have an idea of how the day will play out.

Sydney Alimin 13:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
man, looks like we are still in this dead range for another week

ln 13:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 13:18 GMT. These options will not impact. We are not close enough for the deltas to count.

B.A. BOCA 13:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:10 GMT June 4, 2004
difference there is between a good day, a great day and a bad day...

same difference between a couple of drinks, a lot of drinks, and too many drinks..

speaking of.. GL all leave this mess for you guys

Haifa ac 13:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:54 GMT June 2, 2004
"...Large 1.2100 and 1.2550 expiries Friday. IFR GL GT"...//

Could we possibly go for the 121????


Gen dk 13:17 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Texas jb 13:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know whwere I can purchase software to determine support and resistance, 1st, 2nd resistance and support, intermediates and pivot points with next 24 hour highs and lows.

Calcutta Vikram 13:11 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy.....agree with you there. Definitely a wise strategy many a times.

Dallas GEP 13:10 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
My platform shows a low of 1.8317 BID on cable (data release) which is 1.8322 ASK on my platfrom. My Take Profit of the GBP shorts from 1.8425 was 1.8320 (ask of course), so basically I miss that DAMMM TP by 2 stinking pips, Anyone that tells you a 1-2 pip spread difference doesn't matter is FOS!! So basically I am out at BE instead of 105 pip gain!!!

Net for the day and week is a gain because of the usd/jpy longs so that's ok but it just goes to show how little a difference there is between a good day, a great day and a bad day.

USA Biscuit Boy 13:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. I think this demonstrates not to have an open trade when major US data is due unless you are deep in the money already. And don't trade on a Friday unless the same. Saved me so often it is a given for me now. GL and GT and GWeekend.

Gold Coast martin 13:04 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
EURO game not over yet..we could very well wind back to our pre-data range of 1200-1220..g/l to all...

slv sam 13:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
guys i think it is more safe to play in casino!....my $/cad is doing well.GT

OK SZ 12:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
there was a euro fib retrace at 12274 which it hit then bounced down..if the euro hits 12299-12312 I would take a long position and target the next fib at 12428..fwiw

Sydney Alimin 12:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: maybe this is what 'booring' meant! that extra 'o' did the trick!

Minnesota Mark 12:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Well that helped the options nicely, a shame I'm still practicing on the demo acct.

ln 12:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
got hammered on payrolls. went long cablebut now that is under water as well...should have waited but thought it would fly to 1.85

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 12:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Next step..

EURO ..1.2388 further out..

Have a nice weekend!

nk

dc fxq 12:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:53 GMT June 4, 2004


Odd that US data is always not as good as it looks and then keeps getting revised higher or late but EZ numbers are never as bad as they seem and in generally show little forward progress but who cares ... its a mugs gmae anyway. :)

Normandy Nick 12:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 12:52 GMT June 4, 2004
LOL! very funny!

B.A. BOCA 12:56 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
1,23 held pretty comfortably first try...

Dallas GEP 12:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
This feed thing really pissessss me off. I leave it up because I can't leave all the platform feeds up at the same time and if that is not working right, I am screwed!!!

HK [email protected] 12:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 12:47 GMT

Sometimes what looks good is not so good.
There are wise people who know how to break data into details just to show us how things really are. Have to wait and see.

GA TJ 12:52 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Looks to me like the FX Animals feast is about over. Bull and Bear carcasses are littered all over the place. Someone is fat and happy. I am thinking that it will settle down over the next 30-45 minutes and we should see some SANE trading prospects or it will just float the day with little or no action.

jkt diablo 12:52 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I cut my short position from 1.8324 at 1.8368. This payroll data is not going to help out USD. Will try to buy on dips to recover my loss.

Sydney Alimin 12:52 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
will be interesting to see today's closing price

UAE Oil man 12:51 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Maximum pain...

Boca Raton 12:50 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
And for my next trick, now that its 25 offered, watch me pull this rabbit out of my hat!

Dallas GEP 12:49 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NEVER mind!!! USD/CAD stopped out @ 1.3540. My feed was frozen.

OK SZ 12:48 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
does anyone else get the feeling that euro want to hit 12345 which is the 50% from 11760 to 12929? seems that way

melbourne farmacia 12:47 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NFP within the expected range. So still buy cable on dips etc

Sydney Alimin 12:47 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
phew, usd is saying bye bye again, what else can save it if even good data failed? more and more terrorists attack fear certainly wont help

Tallinn viies 12:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 12:38 - no no. doesnt like such strategies. want to see chopping and then I come with white suit and pick the chips from the tabel :) :) :)

Boca Raton 12:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, are you saying you lowered your stop loss again?

Nottingham 12:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...good stops have been done below 3550...some demand expected at 3510/00...gl gt

Normandy Nick 12:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
euro is pointing 1.23 if chf prints 1.2430

Dallas GEP 12:45 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD shorts stopped out at BE, I think BIG BOYS are running stops

USD.CAD long though still looks workable

GVI john 12:45 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2004

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The May increase in payroll employment follows gains of 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March (as revised). Job growth in May again was widespread, as increases continued in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in May, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent. The unemployment rate has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent in each month since December 2003...

Dublin CK 12:44 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk

Get the jump start cables out and kick start that euro puppy.

LOL

OK SZ 12:43 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
it looks like the same old song and dance, whatever the us # is usually good sell the $. makes no sense..but just go with the FLOW..these were good numbers especially the revisions

Normandy Nick 12:43 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
as the downside has been more puffed out than the upside, I think there is more convictions to sell but don't underestimate the power of the dark side....

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 12:42 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Come ON EURO!!!




nk

Calcutta Vikram 12:40 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Why the volatility? My guess is everyone had gone square before the data and as such the market is trying to find direction after it. Looks like it hasn't made up its mind yet

Sydney Alimin 12:39 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
is this it? boo boo no party this weekend to either side

Dallas GEP 12:39 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Stop on USD/CAD longs is at 1.3540
Stop on gbp/usd short is @ 1.8425 (BE at entry)

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 12:38 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
viies, u want buy break?

OK SZ 12:38 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
no clear direction as yet..least for me

Normandy Nick 12:38 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
i'm short below 1.8410 and long above 1.8455
I just watch pigs and sheeps getting killed for now...

Nottingham 12:38 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius 12:35 GMT

data as consensus so Chicago VM's scenario played out i.e. stops done both sides...gl gt

Tallinn viies 12:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
if 1,2250/60 taken we may see lot of FUN :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hold steady, heck of a rebound.

buc 12:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
euro is crazy too!!!

Dallas GEP 12:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Limted out on USD/JPY longs @ 111.74
Holding usd/cad longs still
Holding gbp/usd still

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 12:35 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
crazy eur and gold divergence.....

KL KL 12:35 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Normandy...I thought my provider systems has gone crazy....up down...what is your possie...Long??

Vilnius 12:35 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
How can you explain this horrbile volatility in past 5mins? cable went down 40 pips then up 50pips then down 60pips..

Normandy Nick 12:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
woa! the pound is crazy!

GVI john 12:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
May +248K
Apr +346K revised vs +288K

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Mark for the post.

Calcutta Vikram 12:32 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
$-Yen to touch 112.25....guss its there already

Minnesota Mark 12:30 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
U.S. MAY NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 248,000; JOBLESS RATE 5.6%

8:30am 06/04/04 U.S. APRIL, MARCH NONFARM PARYOLLS REVISED UP 74,000

8:30am 06/04/04 U.S. MAY AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.8 HOURS

8:28am 06/04/04 4 U.S. SOLDERS KILLED IN BAGHDAD BLAST - REUTERS

Minnesota Mark 12:29 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Stickin with -$ on GBP and Yen

slv sam 12:28 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
:) very simple the move will be against the bet! it is a casino! you do not know?? GT

Gold Coast martin 12:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Time for the euro and nzd to share the pain....good luck to everyone on this bloody friday....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Did somebody leak the info again LOL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone has plan a, b and c ready. No one with weak hearts allowed in this one. Remember to wait to see clearly before commencing fire and GL to all.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
8:30 am

SOFIA trader 12:14 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
excuse me guys,

can someone post US data releases due for today in EDT time?

houston st 12:10 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
current access crude prices:

July $38.77 -.51
Aug $38.77 -.46
Sept $38.77 -.51

Genoa nic 12:00 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
AB 11.24,
Haven’t the background for an educated answer, unfortunately. I posted the weekly contraction because of recent days debate on the matter. I think that looking at recent correlations and effects on Euro/$, if any, the only noteworthy fact is that after 3 months contraction ( Stept to Dec 2003) the euro topped out in January (M3 grew unceasingly May 2002 to Aug 2003). So the effect on the markets surely is lagging and is not only one week of contraction that matters.

UAE Oil man 11:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Maximum pain (which is usually the case) is DOWN for the $..
As all forecasters have forecasted SO GOOD numbers that even a GOOD number (but not as good as forecasted) would again send the $ tumbling...

Again wait and see..go with the break and eat stops..That is on the program today..

houston st 11:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

morning all..my dance card's empty as well, waiting for NFP..for those of you that like to go direct to the source here is the link:

http://stats.bls.gov/home.htm

good trades to all.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 11:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
oilman, tks!

UAE Oil man 11:54 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
No boats, Ab..

It's friday..and market is ready for a nice massacre..Let's just go with the flows.

St-Petersburg, RU Jam 11:43 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:11 GMT thx, Sir...i will use this as mnemonic key for "lull" from now on...:)

GVI john 11:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2205…$/yen 111.15
DJIA +38 pts… 10-yr 4.72%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


See GV research section for text

Minnesota Mark 11:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Seeing as they upped the guesstimate over night from 225K to 265K on strong payroll, could be setting themselves up.

Dallas GEP 11:32 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY showing a little life here long.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 11:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
oilman, are u still on any boat? or waiting to join?

Dallas GEP 11:30 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks JP. Notty

Nottingham 11:27 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
No problem GEP...fwiw if you want data on time you need a professional feed from reuters or bloomberg for eg...and even then you might one at least another one as back up as different providers will be faster/more precise in specific regions/sectors...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 11:26 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
nh// from a genius "Macau indicator" I see many smaller traders are expecting worse than expected number rather 'cos everyone seems knowing the "price-in" tone....

I would be sitting on my hands to watch the show. only keeping little long chf 1.2465 from last night.

Mtl JP 11:26 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP / FFR, Canadian numbers can be had for free and on time at StatCan.com

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 11:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
nic// what's your implication on the contraction of the M3?

Dallas GEP 11:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NOTTY. your post on CAD release was MUCH appreciated. IFR had NOTHING on cad data release, can you beleive that???

Mtl JP 11:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
nh 11:14 / because that is the "now and here" nature and market focus of spot traders, who are "instant oriented". Fed rate will have its moment in the spot light in due time.

Dallas GEP 11:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Current possies working:
1.3596 long on usd/cad
1.8425 short on gbp/usd
111.00 long on usd/jpy

1.2190 stops on Euro in danger

Livingston nh 11:14 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
as the world awaits the US employment figures perhaps a flaw in the "priced in" theory -- if a June 30 rate hike is "priced in" why would a 300k or even a 400k non-farm payroll number (which would seemingly confirm what is already priced in) roil the USD level? seems only a weak number should be a market mover

Dallas GEP 11:13 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Took USD/CAD long @ 1.3596, stop 1.3560, TP 1.3690

Haifa ac 11:11 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
St-Petersburg, RU // It is a short for this:
Toora, loora, loora
Toora, loora, li
Toora, loora, loora
Hush, now, don't you cry
Ah,
Toora, loora, loora
Toora, loora, li
Toora, loora, loora
It's an Irish lullaby

St-Petersburg, RU Jam 11:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark thx...poor vocabulary, sorry...thought LULL is a kind of abbreviation...

Nottingham 11:05 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 11:01 GMT

+56100 and 7.2% better than consensus

Minnesota Mark 11:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
St-Petersburg, RU Jam Lull, as in lull after the storm, quiet boring, peaceful, boring, lull..

Chicago YM 11:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
canadian numbers good?

St-Petersburg, RU Jam 11:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 10:48 GMT June 4, 2004 ...excuse my stupidity, but what is lull?...thx

Nottingham 10:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
canadian job data coming up...+20-40k and 7.3% expected...data will play second fiddle to US so may be an idea to fade a strong canadian number and buy usdcad dip if seen...gl gt

Haifa ac 10:48 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
So many are expecting storm after the lull. I begin to think possible LULL after the lull.

Nottingham 10:47 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 10:31 GMT

Depends on the release...if number is away from consensus nobody will be hanging around to play stop hunting as market will move half a figure within a few seconds...today if non farms between +210-250, the consensus, you may see your scenario play out...so bottom line is it just depends on where the actual falls in terms of forecasts...gl gt

Chicago YM 10:43 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
ln 10:39 GMT

I was looking at the chart for last month on the 7th and that seemed to be the case then and i remember similiar things happening in past months. I shall watch it closely again today.

ln 10:39 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 10:31 GMT. I have seen this occur but have not looked at it very closely. Think the intention is to get rid of a few stops and then wham...

Chicago YM 10:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Question: When US payroll data comes out is it usually the case that a pair will spike in the opposite direction of where the pair will actually go as soon as the data is released but then proceed to go the other way?

Gold Coast martin 10:08 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
TU FERRY...i dont try to be different from anyone else for the sake of been different..part of my system has a "defensive contrarian" component built into it..good luck to those who follow and good luck to those that lead....

Tu ferry 10:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
@Gold Coast Martin

In times when everbody is bullish EUR/USD I find it very interesting to have your contrarian view about this currency pair. I still remember one of your forecasts for a Friday not too long ago, which has perfectly been hit, although it seemed to be impossible before.

Thanks for sharing your views and keep your comments coming.

GENEVA FHR 10:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
German manufacturing order + 2.5%

Bah Bahrain1 09:56 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
UAE, Oil Man/// Good day to u mate, Nice trades...... GL.
Hi every one wish you all a gerat day.

Bah Bahrain1 09:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
UAE, Oil Man/// Good day to u mate, Nice trades...... GL.

jkt diablo 09:54 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I heard that the market is expecting payroll to print above 300K in order to boost USD significantly. Between 200-300K means neutral and could be USD negative. Is this true?

Well, if payroll prints above 300K, which one do you think will get hit the hardest between euro, cable or yen?

LHR B747 09:37 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
I read that "Pick Up In German Mfg Orders Expected"; weaker EUR will help a lot! :)


GT

Gold Coast martin 09:26 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LHR747....The euro has to share the pain...

Stockholm za 09:25 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw..€/$ - Key pivot play into the check mate zoan

Chambery FR JFB >> you have mail..
Happy trades.......

Genoa nic 09:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
B747, that would be at least a 200 pips number

Normandy Nick 09:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hi,
all of us are waiting for a nuclear reaction at 12:30 GMT.
Here are my plane tickets for the pound that should move of at least 120 pips after the datas.
buy at 1.8453 bid for 1.8510--->1.8570
sell at 1.8310 bid for 1.8250--->1.8180

May the Einstein Spirit be with you.

Gen dk 09:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Genoa nic 09:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone

FWIW, given during the previous days there were discussions about money supply (I posted an alarmist article on the matter), just noticed that the last FED update on the preliminary M 3 week average number (out yesterday 4.30 pm ET) for the week ended on May 24 showed a contraction seasonally adjusted to 9197.5 from 9222.7 (week ended on May 17) . This would be the first week to week contraction since the week ended on April 5.
13 and 4 week averages still well rising.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

LHR B747 09:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
ING points (forecast) on payrolls @ over +400K; any comments/opinions/views for this number?

If this number is a hit than EUR is walking to the butcher later today - IMO.

GT

Gen dk 08:54 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Moscow Mishanya 08:41 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
Please post ur AUDUSD view.
Thanks a lot.

Pretoria SS 08:25 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
What are the views on USD/EUR - sit tight under 1.2200 or will it break north?

hk dong 08:22 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 07:42 GMT June 4, 2004 eur/jpy and eur/gbp are good short play while aud/jpy and aud/nzd are good long plays.

London 08:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
moscow vasya 08:03 GMT June 4, 2004
Gold is against USD (XAU/USD) and the spread is 50 pips usually.

hk dong 08:04 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
agree Gold Coast martin 07:53 the massacre will get bloodier, the present 1.76 levels are still good levels for you to get in

hk dong 02:14 GMT June 4, 2004
NYC YIPPEE 01:49 GMT June 4, 2004
good move

FWIW another great 5:1 r/r sell is
Selling EURAUD 1.7730 stop 1.7840 target 1.7200
great odds for EURAUD to print 1.7500/1.7400 today

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 08:04 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
B747, seems we should not trying for those risky ones.

selling at here then collect b4 data might be more acceptable.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 08:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
the aud/nzd has a special line at 1.1050, a break of that think will draw RBNZ attention.

moscow vasya 08:03 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
pls tell - is "GOLD" (=387) measured in usd or what?

melbourne farmacia 07:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax - "Now Euro/Jy has taken out 13510 today " that's news to me.... anyway i'll take my old benz 2 the pawn shop too.... GT

LHR B747 07:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:53 GMT: I agree with you but still trying to define the 'stops'...what are your stops?

GT

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:55 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
my last mentioning of eur/chf looks getting more and more valid.

1.5225-50 will be a good place for retracement towards the upside. Reverse-carry trade?

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
747, think if price continues to stranggling like this, the same "both stops hit" story will repeat on this Fri. night....

HOUSTON KEN 07:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hey do u all think that the dollar trend will be strong cos i want to go to sleep without taking profit??

Gold Coast martin 07:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
HK..DONG...massacre will get bloodier...hope you are on the right side...

hk dong 07:49 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
re. 300 pip massacre for EUR/AUD, 100 pips so far.
very ugly below 1.7500

LHR B747 07:47 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,

Payrolls +150K and lower means USD down 1.5%-2% today, do you agree with this view?

GT

hk revdax 07:42 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
farmacia//That is better. Now Euro/Jy has taken out 13510 today. So we should be looking at your 134 target. But let me go to the bank and mortgage my house first.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:41 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:23 GMT June 4, 2004
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 109.66 - 110.29 - 110.93 - 111.56 // ...

melbourne farmacia 07:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax - ok without cycle input... just voodoo lines eur/jpy ... needs to hold 135.20.. if not look for 134.38...

moscow vasya 07:23 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
people - i see "GOLD" quote on my tradedesk - (388,26-76). Is it measured to usd or what and why spread is so wide?

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:10 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
aud/gbp might have a go towards .34 first....before aud rebound..

UAE Oil man 07:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:07 GMT June 4, 2004

72...;)

Gold Coast martin 07:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
HAIFA...i think there is a virgin camel in those clouds..i sure that will change your inclination.....good trades despite your inclination!...lol

hk revdax 07:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 06:52//you wrote:" I would need to do some work on eur/jpy... if u can wait a day or two... GT"

A day or two??????????? 5 minutes are all you have got, pal!

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:08 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
short little eur/aud here.

Haifa ac 07:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 06:31 GMT June 4, 2004
UAE..oil man....my system is seeing gathering dark clouds over the euro on the horizon within the next 4 hours//
I would like to know if there is a VIRGIN amongst them? (that will certainly change my inclination)

Gold Coast martin 07:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
RE:I FAIL TO UNDERSTAND THE LOGIC OF EXITINF AUD POSITIONS NOW ...when it has so much short, medium to long term downward bias...still its not my money so good luck to every one....

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 07:01 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
oilman, thanks re: aud

exit with 16 pips.

MONACO OGA 06:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 04/06
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2200), exactly like yesterday with market very little moved, ECB leaving rates unchanged as expected. Trading range is narrowing (1,2190-1,2250) and everyone is waiting for the US data later today to trigger next move (1,2050 or 1,2400). Beirout OPEC meeting was as expected but oil is still trading around $40 as market is warry of terror attacks against plants ($7 to $8 "fear factor" currently priced in). We still think there are chances to reach 1,2350 and higher (1,2450) in order to complete the W pattern shaping up since March, however momentum seems to be fading away. For today, we will remain neutral unless we break 1,2310 (bullish signal) or we retrace to 1,2120 (buying opportunity). On the downsides, a violation of 1,2080 pivotal point should encourage EUR bears into selling (1,1900).

Data out today:

EURozone retail trade April expected 0,5% 08.30 GMT
Germany factory orders M/M expected 0.9% 10.00 GMT
US unemployment rate May expected 5.6% 12.30 GMT
US average early earnings May expected 0.2% 12.30 GMT
US change in nonfarm payrolls May expected 225K 12.30 GMT
US change in manufacturing payrolls May expected 20K 12.30 GMT
US average weekly hours May expected 33.8 12.30 GMT

Gold at 388.00, with WTI July at 39,18

***JPY***
USD/JPY (111,10). The pair finally broke 111,00 resistance as expected yesterday (with rumors of BOJ checking prices) and has been hovering inside 110,70-111,50 overnight. Although looking bid, the pair should encounter some selling interest in the 111.50-112 aera.. We reckon 109,00-50 should be a supportive zone tough to crack, so today we will remain neutra and favour some range trading inside 110.50-112.00.
EUR/JPY currently 135,60, consolidating inside 134,50-136,50..

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8380), rebounded on 1,83 support but found selling interest above 1,84 (1,8420). It looks as if market is building a nice base around 1,8350 (7 trading days in a row). We formerly identified a 1,82-1,86 rading range, but today we feel accumulated momentum could easily send the pair up to 1,87.
EUR/GBP (0,6640) rather stable but still looking offered and attracted by 0.6620 support. We remain neutral for the time being.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

UAE Oil man 06:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
As For AUD$,

I had a signal to short 7141,
did not take it..thought ok that's an Abheration (turning the shirt is always difficult..but arguing is easy.)
Then it fell,Another signal appeared on 7034,
So ...Offcourse stay flat (if not going short is the best way to be safe than sorry.).
Will not attempt long till 7030 is regained..

nyc jk 06:53 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks Oil man, your view much appreciated. I guess just a waiting game now until NFP figures, gl.

melbourne farmacia 06:52 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:22 GMT June 4, 2004
Yes...correct regarding major/minor cycles etc... that said, my turning periods relate to eur/usd only at this stage. I would need to do some work on eur/jpy... if u can wait a day or two... GT

UAE Oil man 06:41 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks,As for your question Jk on the oil,

Well I have never believed in GIVEN money(on oil)..plus we are in summer time where oil consumption is quite low..Thus we could see a nice sized dip till few months coming.
However until 36 breaks, the bull run is still on.
As of note only the consumer in USA are really getting hurt by the surge in oil prices (as in europe for exemple the price at the pump has barely moved since 2000..because oil is sold in $..And E$ is rising..) offcourse situation would change if E$ were to fall..Present production stands at 88% ...will 12% more be enough to satisfy the increasing demand out there?..
or just make a short term price relief..my guess is the latter.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 06:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
oilman, do u mean u have flatted now??

If so, I may do the same on the aud....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Well done Jedi Master

Gold Coast martin 06:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
UAE..oil man....my system is seeing gathering dark clouds over the euro on the horizon within the next 4 hours..caution is recomended...g/l g/t

nyc jk 06:28 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
well done Oil Man

UAE Oil man 06:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 05:28 GMT June 2, 2004
Morning,
As i said Last week, will let you fight the top and will raise stops on cable when 1.84 is reached.
Current posted positions
GBP(1.7817+1.8148)s/l 1.8112 (now going to1.86)
E$(1.2007+1.2017+1.1957(did Not post 1.1957).) s/l 1.2075 (now now going to 1.24+)
$CAD(1.3730+1.3770)s/l 1.3840(slowly going back under 1.30.)

Removing GBP$ 1.8148 @ 1.8380=232
Removing E$ [email protected]=203
Removing $Cad [email protected]=120
Removing E$ [email protected]=193
Removed All AUD$=+23.
Removed GBP$ 1.7817 @1.8370=553
Removed $cad 1.3770 @1.3610=160
Removed [email protected]=248

Total-1732.

Now waiting new signals.

Chambery FR JFB 06:22 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 06:16 GMT June 4, 2004
Request sent...! Thanks :-)

hk revdax 06:22 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 06:17//I suppose the difference between a major or a minor cycle day very much depends on the trend setting in which the cycle day surfaces. A trendy cycle day is inevitably more responsive and powerful than one that is against the trend.

Against this background, please tell me if Euro/JY is in its up or down or neutral mode. TIA

SA AHG 06:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Any one watching CHF. Is that a wedge formation on 30 min chart ?

melbourne farmacia 06:17 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
ab - afternoon, yesterday was minor cycle day... gt

Gold Coast martin 06:16 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
chamberry,,,yes by all means....ask jay to give you my new email address...let me know how you go....

hk revdax 06:15 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIIW...i am tempted to sell Euro/JY today.

Chambery FR JFB 06:13 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Morning all :-)

Za, if/when you are here, your point appreciated on euro... Looks like it's stabilizing in the upper quarter of the recent 1.1781/1.2306 move (on daily), so another push up to come? TIA :-)

Martin : I asked Jay twice but no answer... do you still agree if I ask him for your e-mail? Thanks as well :-)

GL GT

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 06:06 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, is there anything special about today timing? THANKS! Is it your cycle day?

Bris th 05:39 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx ..Thanks mate ..makes sense..

Melb mpfx 04:38 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw// Eur-Usd.
To me at present we are in a simular holding pattern to that which occurred between the 17-5-2004 and the 25-5-2004.
Below are some calculations:

Holding pattern 1:
Date: 17-5-2004 to 25-5-2004.
Low: 1.1893
High: 1.2076
Range: High – low = 183 pips
Target for break of High: High + 183 = 1.2259
Completed

Holding pattern 2:
Date: 27-5-2004 till present.
Low: 1.2153
High: 1.2311
Range: High – low = 158 pips
Target for break of High: High + 158 = 1.2469
Target for break of Low: Low – 158 = 1.1995

Of course which way will it break and will it be a false one is the zillion dollar question.
Selling around the High of 1.2311 or buying around the Low of 1.2153 with SAR orders for a break of these levels will be an option I will be looking at.

All jmvho…..gt & gl

houston st 04:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX--very tight range today..everyone seems to be awaiting the NFP numbers..not a market for the active trader, at least not during the Asian session..time for a cat snooze here but will be back during London to prepare for an active, and hopefully profitable, market..gl/gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:12 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
houston st 04:07 GMT - Both of them are range bound and my view is still the same.

houston st 04:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

Qindex--any change on your view of usd/jpy or eur/usd? tia.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:00 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:58 GMT June 4, 2004
10-Yr Bond (September) : The critical level of my daily cycle is located at 107^31 - 108^08. The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 107^11 - 108^08. The lower barrier is expected at 107^01 - 107^11 and the upper barrier is positioning at 108^18 - 108^28. The odds are in favour of taking a short position.


... 107^01 // 107^11 - 107^21 - (107^31 - 108^08) - 108^18 // 108^28 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:59 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
houston st 03:49 GMT : Good Morning!

houston st 03:49 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX--good morning...good trades to you today..hope you've had a profitable week.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:32 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
10-Yr Bond (September) : The market was neutral in the last session. It did not make any commitment to tackle either my daily cycle lower barrier or upper barrier. The market hit the low and the high at 107^20 and 108^04 respectively. It closed at 108^02.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:47 GMT June 3, 2004
10-Yr Bond (September) : Challenging the Support at 107^12


The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market is pulling towards 107^12. The odds are in favour of sell on rallies.


... 116^21 ... 107^04 // 107^12 - 107^20 - 107^28 - 108^04 - 108^12 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:58 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:57 GMT June 4, 2004
Spot Gold : The key quantized level of my daily cycle is located at 389. The upper barrier is positioning at 390.8 // 392.6 and the mid-point reference is 391.7. The lower barrier is expected at 381.7 // 383.5 and the mid-point reference is 382.6. The odds are in favour to sell on rallies and it is very likely that the market will challenge the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 381.7 // 383.5.


... 381.7 // 383.5 - 385.4 - 387.2 - 389 - 390.8 // 392.6 ...

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 02:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
thanks very much bc, I just couldn't figure out why eur and gold suddenly become so divergent.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:36 GMT June 4, 2004
Crude-Oil (September) : The key quantized level of my daily cycle is located at 39.32. The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 38.37 - 40.27. The lower barrier is expected at 37.42 // 38.37 and the mid-point reference is 37.89. The upper barrier is positioning at 40.27 // 41.21 and the mid-point reference is 40.74. The preferred trading strategy is to sell on rallies.


... 37.42 // 38.37 - (39.32) - 40.27 // 41.21 ...

hk dong 02:14 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 01:49 GMT June 4, 2004
good move

FWIW another great 5:1 r/r sell is
Selling EURAUD 1.7730 stop 1.7840 target 1.7200
great odds for EURAUD to print 1.7500/1.7400 today


shanghai bc 02:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   

AB-- Good morning..The co-relation has been Oil/Nikkei and Nikkei/Yen..Nikkei/Yen co-relation is the key here..On Gold,383 was the breakout point and testing its support is almost a necessity..But Dollar still cannot stand above Index 89 and Swissy 1.25..Good trades.

NYC YIPPEE 01:49 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW

Selling EURUSD 1.2215 stop 1.2256 target 1.2065
Selling GBPUSD 1.8375 stop 1.8450 target 1.8180.
Buying AUDUSD .6897 stop .6845 target .7020.

SanFrancisco tg 01:46 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Martin - see same as you, just plucked a few Aud short to warm up for possible 6820. Market not set to this point on it though so tentative shorts until it gains conviction for me.

Gold Coast martin 01:36 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
hk...its a big move down i agree but look at last 3 day downward move of the aud....my system shows nzd move to follow aud recent move....g/l

hk dong 01:34 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
how about a 300 pip massacre for EUR/AUD in memory of 6/4 Tinnamen Square?

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:33 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
martin, u are talking about 800 pips....

for me, I think aud/jpy will be supported at 75-74 strong.
But anything could happen ;).

And I have already longed together with the STOP.

Brisbane L 01:31 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th I agree with that, the Housing approvals show a rise of 1.5% not a fall as many thought so quite good. cheers
appreciate your view.

Gold Coast martin 01:24 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
HK..ab..nzd...by 60 the 6045-6055 range...

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:22 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
at least now we see that oil down, dlr/jpy up... relationship broken.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:20 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
bc// may I ask if this gold retracement is a consolidation or another down move for us to accumulate more at 370?

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:19 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, short one kiwi to hedge the aud long.

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
martin, when u say 60 range, what do you exactly mean? THANKS...

hk ab nz 0.59 double bottom 01:18 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
nt// dlr/jpy failed the shs... .think I can wait for 114-115 to do the mission.

Ltn th 01:09 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L --Taking some poetic license with my speculations.
My first reaction to McF's comments was to laugh and refer to speculation about how soon RBA will be forced to cut and by how much. It seems their preferred method of controlling inflation to a band is simply to depress GDP.
However I have just had a look at longer term AUDUSD chart. We have just had 38% fib retracement of the full jump from 49 to 80 and may be poised for an attack on 88 to 89 with minor resistance around 8275 and 80.
The timing could be in line recent outlook for next Howard Costello government.

Gold Coast martin 00:57 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
GOOD MORNING...aud has printed sub 69 as posted before...next downward move to 6820..timeframe:close of ny trading monday...nzd is holding up better than the aud but i expect it to move down to 60 range within the next 2 sessions...g/l g/t

Brisbane L 00:30 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
RBA's Macfarlane: Estimates Normal 5.25-6.25%
Concept Of Normal Rates Unchanged
GDP Growth Closer To 4% Than 3%

USA Biscuit Boy 00:28 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 00:17 GMT June 4, 2004

Sorry went out for pizza. I don't use that email anymore sorry.

LAX-LGB SNP 00:22 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 22:44 GMT June 3, 2004

LAX-LGB SNP 00:17 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy
sent ya charts but bounced right back ?

Atlanta 00:07 GMT June 4, 2004 Reply   
Anyone, what is the next level for EUR/USD? What do you PROS think will happen over the next 4-12 hrs & beyond. Any advice would greatly appreciated. Has the increased oil production already been figured in?

 




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