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Forex Forum Archive for 06/06/2004

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Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:55 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 23:32 GMT June 6, 2004
I agree with that comment on eur/usd. I have 1.2330-40 as possible top for now and 1.2180-90 as T/L with further support around 1.2260-65, 1.2225-30 and 1.2170-80 for now. GL GT

houston st 23:34 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   

USA Biscuit Boy 23:32 GMT -- looks to be pretty thin..I'm still short from 111.50..holding for much lower, but wouldn't mind a chance to sell at higher numbers..gl/gt this week.

Ldn 23:34 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
FX market has confirmation it wanted that Fed to start hiking end-month, but USD still enveloped in bearish clouds: Even with another solid payrolls report, players say USD has squeezed about all the juice it can out of hopes for higher U.S. rates, has resumed long-term downtrend. That means old weights have returned to haunt USD, including U.S. current account deficit. There's a modest negative case for the dollar the market has become excessive about the case of Fed tightening.
Citigroup

OK SZ 23:33 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit, I agree..I see the euro at 12175 sometime this week..q"s 12103 level looks very good..so will watch and see for now..gl, gt

OK SZ 23:32 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
12345 is the 50% retracement of 12929/11760

USA Biscuit Boy 23:32 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
That's what has me worried ST everyone thinking the same. And why dollar bears attacking at this early hour when market is thin. I personally don't buy it so I'll have to wait and see what happens before making a decision.

Detroit parkfx 23:30 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone recommend a good FX buying and selling alert service provider to me? i need it please. OR better still a good trading software for forex?

houston st 23:26 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Dollar May Decline Against Euro, Yen, Bloomberg Survey Shows. Read it at this link.

Rye, NY et 23:14 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW...
Nymex Crude (basis July) opened $38.44;Last $38.49 (unch)

USA Biscuit Boy 22:57 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q are we close to a weekly barrier on your system for eur/usd? TIA.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 22:53 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
martin, let's see how your magic work (word) this week ......

it's tough.

Bahrain Within 10 pips 22:48 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Saihat 22:16 GMT June 6,
This is what they are.
Highest High and Lowest Low...for cover can use...1/3 of the range...from period to period...otherwise...just use the wave.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 22:47 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
oilman, I am looking at your .7030 aud line...

USA Biscuit Boy 22:47 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Wow traders wanted those stops early on in eur/usd. Have to wait and see if there is follow thru buying now. Very interesting time for it too!

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 22:34 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
bc// do u see something special if eur leads gold on this move?

I think there's sth wrong with this pattern...... but no way to go contra on eur short at the moment.....

Saihat 22:16 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 pips
hi,
in your data

could you high light the highest high & lowest low

it hard to me to see

Bahrain Within 10 pips 22:07 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
this is the sell of the week...(Date is EST=NY)...Dr. Q...what do You think?
Curr CHFJPY 15 minutes

Data
Date Sum of High Sum of Low
6/6/2004 20:40 90.53 88.57
6/6/2004 22:30 90.59 88.48
6/7/2004 0:20 90.60 88.41
6/7/2004 2:10 90.63 88.38
6/7/2004 4:01 90.67 88.37
6/7/2004 5:51 90.70 88.38
6/7/2004 7:41 90.72 88.39
6/7/2004 9:31 90.74 88.39
6/7/2004 11:21 90.77 88.37
6/7/2004 13:11 90.78 88.40
6/7/2004 15:02 90.77 88.45
6/7/2004 16:52 90.75 88.47
6/7/2004 18:42 90.73 88.49
6/7/2004 20:32 90.74 88.51
6/7/2004 22:22 90.73 88.54
6/8/2004 0:12 90.72 88.56
6/8/2004 2:03 90.68 88.59
6/8/2004 3:53 90.62 88.65
6/8/2004 5:43 90.57 88.68
6/8/2004 7:33 90.52 88.72
6/8/2004 9:23 90.39 88.79
6/8/2004 11:13 90.26 88.93
6/8/2004 13:04 90.16 88.89
6/8/2004 14:54 90.15 88.81
6/8/2004 16:44 90.17 88.71
6/8/2004 18:34 90.18 88.61
6/8/2004 20:24 90.19 88.52
6/8/2004 22:15 90.18 88.44
6/9/2004 0:05 90.15 88.34
6/9/2004 1:55 90.04 88.28
6/9/2004 3:45 89.95 88.28
6/9/2004 5:35 89.89 88.28
6/9/2004 7:25 89.83 88.30
6/9/2004 9:16 89.67 88.33
6/9/2004 11:06 89.53 88.39
6/9/2004 12:56 89.42 88.37
6/9/2004 14:46 89.39 88.37
6/9/2004 16:36 89.37 88.37
6/9/2004 18:26 89.35 88.35
6/9/2004 20:17 89.35 88.32
6/9/2004 22:07 89.36 88.29
6/9/2004 23:57 89.35 88.28
6/10/2004 1:47 89.25 88.25
6/10/2004 3:37 89.22 88.23
6/10/2004 5:27 89.20 88.22
6/10/2004 7:18 89.18 88.20
6/10/2004 9:08 89.15 88.18
6/10/2004 10:58 89.14 88.15
6/10/2004 12:48 89.14 88.14
6/10/2004 14:38 89.09 88.16
6/10/2004 16:28 89.05 88.19
6/10/2004 18:19 89.00 88.19
6/10/2004 20:09 89.02 88.19
6/10/2004 21:59 89.04 88.20
6/10/2004 23:49 89.01 88.21
6/11/2004 1:39 88.99 88.23
6/11/2004 3:30 89.01 88.26
6/11/2004 5:20 89.02 88.25
6/11/2004 7:10 89.04 88.27
6/11/2004 9:00 89.05 88.30
6/11/2004 10:50 89.06 88.31
6/11/2004 12:40 89.06 88.33
6/11/2004 14:31 89.07 88.35
6/11/2004 16:21 89.09 88.35
6/11/2004 18:11 89.11 88.33
6/11/2004 20:01 89.14 88.31
6/11/2004 21:51 89.17 88.30
6/11/2004 23:41 89.21 88.30
6/12/2004 1:32 89.26 88.30
6/12/2004 3:22 89.30 88.30
6/12/2004 5:12 89.33 88.28
6/12/2004 7:02 89.35 88.27
6/12/2004 8:52 89.37 88.25
6/12/2004 10:42 89.38 88.25
6/12/2004 12:33 89.38 88.28
6/12/2004 14:23 89.37 88.30
6/12/2004 16:13 89.37 88.30
6/12/2004 18:03 89.38 88.28
6/12/2004 19:53 89.39 88.26
6/12/2004 21:43 89.41 88.24
6/12/2004 23:34 89.42 88.23
6/13/2004 1:24 89.43 88.23
6/13/2004 3:14 89.42 88.25
6/13/2004 5:04 89.40 88.27
6/13/2004 6:54 89.37 88.31
6/13/2004 8:45 89.34 88.35
6/13/2004 10:35 89.36 88.39
6/13/2004 12:25 89.41 88.32
6/13/2004 14:15 89.49 88.21
6/13/2004 16:05 89.57 88.15
6/13/2004 17:55 89.62 88.11
6/13/2004 19:46 89.66 88.04
6/13/2004 21:36 89.69 87.98
6/13/2004 23:26 89.70 87.92
6/14/2004 1:16 89.72 87.88
6/14/2004 3:06 89.73 87.80
6/14/2004 4:56 89.73 87.72
6/14/2004 6:47 89.70 87.69
6/14/2004 8:37 89.68 87.66

Saihat 21:52 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR-for demo

sell eur here ...stop 75 pips....limit week end or 200 pips


Bahrain Within 10 pips 21:44 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
what do guys thing of these levels..for a few hours
Curr Dec Short Long
EURUSD 15 minutes 1.2326 1.2133
USDJPY 15 minutes 111.9371 110.2692
GBPUSD 15 minutes 1.8474 1.8297
USDCHF 15 minutes 1.2605 1.2347
EURCHF 15 minutes 1.5325 1.519
AUDUSD 15 minutes 0.6995 0.683
USDCAD 15 minutes Buy 1.3704 1.3456
NZDUSD 15 minutes 0.6273 0.6141
EURGBP 15 minutes 0.6693 0.6607
EURJPY 15 minutes 137.051 134.6665
GBPJPY 15 minutes 205.4795 203.0437
CHFJPY 15 minutes Sell 89.9623 87.9967
GBPCHF 15 minutes Buy 2.315 2.273
EURAUD 15 minutes 1.7859 1.7497
EURCAD 15 minutes 1.6714 1.6489
AUDCAD 15 minutes 0.9484 0.9297
AUDJPY 15 minutes 77.8199 75.7603

Bahrain Within 10 pips 21:41 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hello and GM everyone...
Hope it's gonna be a good week for all...

stavanger risktaker 21:37 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi !
New here. Just checking in for a system test.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:40 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
syd krid 06:02 GMT June 6, 2004

Those would be uridashi deals. If you have any inside info on an upcoming issue let us know hehe :)

houston st 15:22 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   

A China Trade Deal for the Yuan to Float? here's the link. good trades this week.

Spotforex NY 14:58 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
jon...this wouldn't be the 'holy' grail (of trade predictions) that you have in your possession?????

gl gt!!!!

spot

Tokyo Jon 14:17 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, After the first week of Alpha testing the CFX Grail companion went well, looking forward to another great week. I have a few updates for Mondays trades that are produced by the CFX Grail Companion, here goes.

EURUSD Daily move : 87 <-> 111, should be capped at 1.2350/70 today, the system is indicating a 60% probabilty of reaching this mark, but whishes to sell at 1.2265 targeting 1.2198 with a stop at 1.2319. Hmm interesting.

USDJPY Daily move : 106 <-> 125, is expecting 60% probability of a downward move today heading to 110.05, I have an extreme high of 112.15 this will definitely cap any advances today. There is now safe trades for this morning, if I get time to update around euro session I will.

Will I am not typing any more, but I may let you in on the GBPUSD and USDCHF later. bfn, cheers.

HK [email protected] 13:04 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Strong euro shields Europe from high oil price-EIB
By Opheera McDoom


CAIRO (Milan: CAI.MI - news) , June 6 (Reuters) - A strong euro is protecting European economies from the effect of high oil prices and will make the region's exporters more competitive in the long run, the European Investment Bank (EIB) said on Sunday.

"It's a kind of invisible protection for us (from high oil prices) and at the very same time it requires from our economic system more competitiveness," EIB Vice-President Philippe de Fontaine Vive told Reuters in Cairo.

In the short term, he said the strong euro was putting pressure on European exporters. "But in the long run that's a very good discipline in a competitive world," he said.


"We are not involved in monetary policy but if you look at the big event which is the oil price increase the first effect you have in mind is that we are well protected within Europe," he said.


Ga Lee 09:54 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
syd krid 06:02 GMT June 6, 2004
you talking about urishi(sp?) bonds?

Russia mit 09:50 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi'em all! I am a new human in this forum, however Foreign Exchange - this is more familiar territory. On this moment i am still looking investor. Can you give me some hints on how to do this on this forum?

Washington DC 09:27 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
America Mourns 'Great Communicator' Ronald Reagan

Hong Kong Qindex 08:25 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:22 GMT June 6, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2522.......... See details in my page. USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected]obal-view.com if you have no access to it.

syd krid 06:02 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know the name of those Japanese investment bond vechiles into Australia? TIA

USA Biscuit Boy 03:57 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Seems US economy still relying on foreigners to buy US debt. Im sure the dollar cannot appreciate too far or this arrangement could unravel quite nastily.

USA Biscuit Boy 03:54 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
US Fed custody holdings in w/e Jun 2 +$10.693bn (4CAST).

USA Biscuit Boy 03:41 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
AB im not sure if this is what you are looking for but M3 for week ending 24 May fell by $25.2 billion but from the longer term chart the trend is still clearly up. Jan this year was around 8.8 trillion and is now around 9.2 trillion.

Godspeed to Mr. Reagan and his family.

hk nzd .59 double bottom 03:39 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
BB// I think aud need to stabilize all its crosses first before next meaningful upmove.....
For me, I am also waiting the result of aud/jpy 75-74 band.

However, there're signs jap will take up a strong rebound in the coming year and I doubt if they still want to park their monies in fixed return investment. Thus, Nikkei is quite important lately.

For instance, I think a long of aud and nzd if aud/jpy doesn't break 74 and eur/aud 1.8..... preferably long aud. (aud/nzd 1.1050 is a solid floor.) And I trust that RBNZ doesn't like to see aud/nzd under 1.1.

One wild card is the aussie election. GL and GT :D

Chicago Irish 03:36 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Ronald Reagan has passed away.........R.I.P.

USA Biscuit Boy 03:32 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
AB can I ask your thoughts on aud/usd and nzd/usd pairs?

Thanks for your thoughts on eur, chf and gold previously. Cheers:)

Hong Kong Qindex 03:02 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:56 GMT June 6, 2004
Nikkei-225 (June) : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 11277. The lower barrier is expected at 10860 // 10964 and the upper barrier is expected at 11485 // 11589. The odds are in favour to buy on dips.


... 10860 // 10964 - 11068 - 11172 - 11277* - 11381 - 11485 // 11589 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:00 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:43 GMT - All my quantized levels are acting like a magnet. However, there is only one key quantized level and the market has a tendency pulling towards it initially (certainly it is not a must).

nyc sa 02:43 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex , hi ,what's the difference between the magnet and the super-magnet ,and what does it imply ,in other words how does it impact the price in this case euro ?

Hong Kong Qindex 02:17 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei-225 (Monthly Cycle) : Expected Monthly Cycle High at 12000
QIndex - Sunday June 6, 2004 - 02:09:52 GMT


GV Research

Hong Kong Qindex 02:12 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 11:33 GMT - Cheers!

Rye, NY et 01:11 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
ab, I was just looking at this:
Here

hk nzd .59 double bottom 00:28 GMT June 6, 2004 Reply   
BB-- That Friday trade is a bit special to eur.

If it closes, under 1.2215, it will signal key day reversal which I think, by all means, all the eur bulls will buy the last cent to keep the line away.

This also tells which side has more commitment......

This is only what I "saw" at that moment.

One more thing is gold didn't lead at all but chf......

If I am USD bearish and see it from interest perspective, why I didn't pick eur but chf?

If I am USD bearish and see it from safe heaven perspective, why I didn't pick gold but chf?

remember many chf crosses have moved quite a lot of distance already.....

I believe that if the NPF number was not that good, 1.24 should have been there on Friday.

But now, it's the BEAR to think whether rush through the 1.24-1.25 band or not.....'cos BUSH will push out more nice data for us in the coming months...

Can someone confirm the published M3 situtation? Seems we had different voices from bc and nic.

 




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