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Forex Forum Archive for 06/21/2004

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LAX-LGB SNP 23:39 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
gotta agree with ML below 1.8394 ... but then i'm long on gbpjpy and looking for 200.20-50 first
so far eurjpy isnt able to tackle 131.96-132.10 either

P P 23:38 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
My system give me a signal to stay quiet, very quiet, to rest well, sleep well, to enjoy the calm, to be prepared for the next week........good luck all.

ICT ML 23:35 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
KEN....I was thinking maybe 1.8375 area to sell from in London myself. But lately, the market and I are at odds as to proper direction ;-(

HOUSTON KEN 23:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
i think i will be selling GBP $ may be during newyork trading the weekly chart is very berish and it looks like it topping on 4hrs anybody with an opinion??

USA Biscuit Boy 22:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
My system gave a buy signal on eur/usd....long position entered at 1.2118....gl and gt.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:08 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Value at Risk= MAximum % Loss / Gain on a stock within a given amount of time.
VaR for Euro=0.705%*1.645*(Time)^.5... (^.5=Sqr Root)
So say You want to know how much you could loss within 15 Days
VaR=.705%*1.645*15^.5=4.49%
Pip Terms=4.49%*Your Price




Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:58 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Euro Is going back now to it's low

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:51 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
VaR...Is what's used for risk these days
Value at Risk
Not Much...really...but good tool to Measure Risk Exposure

nyc jk 21:10 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
the Sharpe ratio definitely has its limitations, however if you are a hedge fund reporting performance or marketing to new investors it is 100% required.

HCM Mezarashii 20:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi,

Anyone here use Murrey Math levels to determine possible reversal levels? I am curious to hear your opinions if you use this method. Can't find any info on Forex and Murrey Math anywhere. mezarashii
at
yahoo

SD tht 20:04 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sharpe R - take it for what it is, it's formula, Statistics can be used for anything.

Chicago LS 19:56 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
yippee--that's what one would conclude after reading Schwager's take on it--several different filips on methodology (the standard method, regressed, and a few others I can't remember off the top of my head), so you often are comparing apples to oranges if you are looking at the numbers presented by the traders/advisors.

Haifa ac 19:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sharpe Ratio simply measures your biggest DRAWDOWN
Large equity allocators are more interested today with Traders who have less than 20% draw down from any equity high than 1000% returns.
The 87 and 97 experiences were scorching.
Very few are like Buffett that did not mind taking 85% draw down on his way to riches.

NYC YIPPEE 19:50 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
A Sharpe ratio in the World of managed funds is as about as helpful as a chocolate teapot IMO.

Chicago LS 19:39 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
re Sharpe: Jack Schwager has a very good analysis of Sharpe ratios in "Managed Futures". He points out that while typically viewed as a measure of risk, it's really a measure of volatility, not the same thing as a trader with a volatile or erratic upside performance will be punished by the number as much as a trader with volatile downside. fwiw.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:23 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 19:06 GMT June 21, 2004///
Yes...Sharp Ratio...can be used for anything
Over Supplying Your account with losses/Profits

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
EURCHF 1.5260 1.5042
Close

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Oh..
Might wanna use Data---> Text to columns in Excel

chester wb 19:08 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
ZA: I would like to look at your work. Is it allright if I ask Jay for your email too?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:50 GMT June 21, 2004 ///
Sort of what U had in Mind? for eur?

SD tht 19:06 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
ZA - Sharpe Ratio is a method to track your performance, profit in excess of a risk free investemnt (90 day T bill). I'm pretty sure the biggest players on the forum are tracking their sharpe ratio.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:02 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Eur is going up I think

USA Biscuit Boy 19:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain I think this week will be choppy trading again so both dollar bulls and bears will be given a chance to profit. Just have to watch action at certain prices to determine if we go up first or down first that is all.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:54 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:50 GMT June 21, 2004 ///
I am not sure Man...
I have to stick to this for while
Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.2239 1.1868
USDJPY 111.1169 107.4942
GBPUSD 1.8586 1.8040
USDCHF 1.2810 1.1788
EURCHF 1.5260 1.5042
AUDUSD 0.6983 0.6735
USDCAD 1.3889 1.3536
NZDUSD 0.6381 0.6137
EURGBP 0.6661 0.6506
EURJPY 134.1392 129.4617
GBPJPY 203.8212 196.4402
CHFJPY 88.5433 85.4094
GBPCHF 2.3293 2.2703
EURAUD 1.7859 1.7269
EURCAD 1.6927 1.6268
AUDCAD 0.9575 0.9248
AUDJPY 76.5616 73.2022

Stockholm za 18:53 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
JIM >>>> fwiw...... You do NOT need all these garbage to be a successful trader.
The best way to go is SIMPLICITY, by watching price action and being a Reactive but not a Predictive analysis.
The reason I posted that was for the traders in the know that understand our trading methodology.
Due to the above mention we do not use any over exaggerated mathmamatical garbage to access the ratio for we are only talking about a single currency pair. Every thing is seen from our charting method that we use. Other wise we might as well go work with the fed to get involve in the deep mathematical gismo..- Which is useless..
If you are interested in seeing our work, just get my e-mail from Jay & I will give you some pointers..
REMEMBER.. SIMPLICITY..
Happy trades to you..

SD tht 18:53 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Allright 10 pips, here's the URL for it (I don't know how to post a link BTW).

http://www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/sr/sr.htm

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:53 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Try Sharp Ratio on Volume...
Take a stock say QQQ...
check out the bidder Volume (= Demand),
Divide over Offer Voulme (= Supply)
if that number is above 4---Means MKT has tendency to go up--
if < 1/4---then the other way..

USA Biscuit Boy 18:50 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain if eur/usd manages to close above its 13 day ema again today however then buying at 1.2080/90 may be very good value as it will signal to me we head up a few hundred pips before hitting low 1.20's again. Will sell it above 1.23 tho.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:49 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 18:46 GMT June 21, 2004 ///
Means not yet
Take decision only if above 4 or less then 1/4

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Jim..if U wanna try this regression
Use the excel function =linest(,

SD tht 18:46 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 pips - my sharpe ratio is 2.22 what does it mean?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:45 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bis
USDJPY 111.1169 107.4942
is what I got...not sure

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:42 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Delta is just the %change--->(p2-p1)/((p2+p1)/2)---->or Just simply
ln(p)/p

USA Biscuit Boy 18:42 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
No Bahrain I will be buying eur/usd at a better value price (1.1980/1.2020) for 1.23's. Dollar bull's power is starting to wane. I would really like to see yen weaken fairly soon to help out my long usd/yen position lol.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:40 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sharp Ratio Says that ~ 4 Times---> Significant---> change in direction

Bruxville Jim 18:39 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I have a clue of what Sharpe ratio is. However, I would like to hear more about the 'delta' formula.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:38 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
to estimate the elasitisty with time...
take the price and ln of it...LN=Natural Log...
The same for Time..
Regress and b= elastisty with time..
Meaning %change of price to % Change in time...use excel date..
The ratio=%Change of price(supply)/%change Price(Demand)...without the time factor...

Calabash TarHeel 18:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:11 GMT June 21, 2004
Hello BB, hope all is good for you. Wondering aout your thoughts for the kiwi at the present. Sold some at .6301 this morning. I'm thinking if it can take .6280 out, might be good for 50 or so pips.
Tia, gl,gt

Madras JJ 18:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   

For Sharpe ratio explanation pl see http://www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/sr/sr.htm

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:33 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Hey Bis,
U shorting the euro at 1.2235 ~
Might happen late tuesday...not sure

Bruxville Jim 18:32 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:30 GMT // Could you please explain the logic behind the formula in popular-scientific language?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:30 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sharp...did it buy imperical estimation...
I did it with Mathematical proof...
That ratio is exponatialy Distributed with mean of 1 and std of 1

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:26 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
USe sharp Ratio~4 for that to be called over supplied.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:25 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Jim..Like no other.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Supply Side
Delta(Price)=a+b*ln(1/(TimeDate))+e
Supply Ratio=b from his equation/b(from the last One)

Bruxville Jim 18:23 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:21 GMT // Do you use the formula for trading?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Detla(Price)=a+b*Delta(timeDate)+e
where b=Demand Elasiticty
e=Random error with E(e)=o...
Jim?

Bruxville Jim 18:15 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 18:07 GMT //please don't hesitate to explain how to measure this supply and demand!

USA Biscuit Boy 18:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Hope so Bahrain been a dull start to the week! Dollar bulls keeping eur/usd below 13 day ema so far.

Stockholm za 18:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... /$ .. trading above ~1,2085 is weekly positive...
Note :- A shift in the supply/demand ratio by 20 % over the last few weeks..
Happy trades......

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:54 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I Have a good feeling the MKT will shake a little soon....Last Hour Maybe.

GVI john 17:22 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Livingston You are correct:
"The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI."
-- from BOC website

The BOC has its own mreasure of core inflation. More on the BOC website. Use "Quicklinks" to find their webaddress.

Livingston nh 17:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 13:52 GMT June 21, 2004 - sorry just got back to see your question about Cdn CPI -- BoC follows "core inflation" (I think) which has been running hotter than total CPI - tomorrow may see the Total CPI take a big jump while Core moves to 2.1% /// 2% is the BoC guideline but I don't think they will raise rates next week - but later in the Summer // I'm sure some of the local folks have a better handle on BoC moves than me

Haifa ac 17:14 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:37 GMT June 21// I s this Naked? no spread involved?

LA ARTOFYEN 17:14 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
A yard in Forex means 1 billion so basically Raven's current exposure in currencies

Haifa ac 17:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Burnley kz 16:50 GMT // Few (Ahe, Noodygirl...) . They are MUCH SMARTER than listening to a bunch of idiot males.

jkt diablo 17:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Just an update that I've taken new long positions for euro @ 2085 and cable @ 8285. USD still looks weak but things may change in the next few days as the Fed rate hike fear may arise again, so I don't plan to keep these positions for long. I'll be watching USD/JPY closely as it has the potential to drop below 108 which would be the time I take the profits from my positions. Good trades everyone!

Saihat 17:09 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 15:31
hi,

for more help, just post 5-10 items (if you got them)that you add to your mind...so no need to buy

Madras JJ 17:09 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:37 GMT June 21, 2004
My understanding of a yard is one billion. I've also read ina book by Niderhoffer who refers to one yard as 30 million. Which is right? I think you mean 1.5 billion..

chicago cal 17:02 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
if 1.2500 is broken on usd/chf would be considered bullish

UAE Oil man 16:54 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Burnley kz 16:50 GMT June 21, 2004
i am new to this forum is there any gals online


///////////////

No but i got camel team.

Burnley kz 16:50 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
i am new to this forum is there any gals online

Va Raven 16:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
"There was one notable trade today, it was a buyer of 1.5 yards of EUR/USD 1.4500 10-month calls. The traders went though at with vols at 12.0%, for these 0.05 delta options".

Good luck!

Mtl JP 16:33 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 15:27 / Trading in the Zone also available at the GV Bookstore (catalogue number 1774 in Quick Search) List Price: $45.00 Sale Price: $31.00 You Save: $14.00. Helps keep GV access free of charge.

Antwerp Tom 16:15 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
B747 You got 1,2111 bid? GL GT

LHR B747 16:10 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
*** Correction ***

short EUR/USD @ 1.2111
S/L @ 1.2122
T/P @ 1.2088


GT

HK Kevin 16:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:09 GMT, sorry for the late reply. Off-line for a movie. I still long USD/CAD from 1.3638. What is your t/p?

LHR B747 16:06 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
short EUR/USD @ 1.2111
S/L @ 1.1222
T/P @ 1.2088


GT

buc nick 16:04 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know a site where i can see live the major indices?tia

Gothenburg XON 16:03 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Time for a "small" long EUR/USD...Target 1,2135

Haifa ac 15:35 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Next hour crucial. Nasdaq 26 hours potential cycle. If they move--it should reflect in some forex move.

HKG SK 15:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas

You can buy this book through amazon.com.

Kaunas 15:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 14:27 GMT June 21, 2004


by any chanve this book is available online?

LHR B747 15:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, it is boring :)

Bring some 60pips move in EUR/USD that I will be able to purchase the opposite of the movement.


GT

Sydney Alimin 15:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747: hello, what can i do for u? :)

Belgrad KZ 15:18 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GL!

Saihat 15:14 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
1-if i like to fight market (sell high , buy low)

2-i have 2 options to sell high and 2 option to buy low

3-if no1 same no2 or almost mean to me strong S or R

Belgrad KZ 15:09 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Saihat 15:06 GMT June 21, 2004
What said us this numbers, I don`t understand! Thank u for your answer!

Saihat 15:06 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
1.3849 1.3837
1.3599 1.3587
daliy USDCAD
1.3675 1.3665
1.3695 1.3683

1.3791 1.3779
1.3541 1.3529

LHR B747 14:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon Alimin,


Are you around?


GT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:47 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
mUMBAI jAY 14:28 GMT - GBP/USD : See my page.

mUMBAI jAY 14:28 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q..What's your call on GBP/USD? TIA

HKG SK 14:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I have to thank you whoever advice me to read the book"Trading in the zone" I finished 1/2 of the book during the weekend and I will recommend this book to all traders in this forum.

San Diego bobl 14:22 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd...
weekly came down to 2003 support and held;
daily shows double bottom holding tests;
2-hr chart shows 10 day range with us trading in the middle right now;
looks like coin toss/junk to me

Hong Kong Qindex 14:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Xrape 14:17 GMT - AUD/USD : Follow my weekly cycle charts. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page. In general we would pay more attention to our weekly cycle charts on Monday and Friday.

Xrape 14:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Evening Qindex


please some comments on aud/usd
thanks

Xrape 14:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Evening Qindex


please some comments on aud/usd
thanks

Porto PJT 14:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Paco 14:04 , thanks, hope so lets see how far we can go this time.Sorry about Spain.

hk revdax 14:09 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin//When $/CAD goes up, what do you think the rest of the ccy will do? This is a relationship bearing on all ccys.

London Stenliaka 14:08 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Turbo Gazara
if you buy you better place your stop bellow 2020 because 2040 is more then crtain

Barcelona Paco 14:04 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 13:58 // Good trade!

Congrats for Portugal, you could be EURO 2004 champions

Porto PJT 13:58 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Out gbp/chf short from 2,3175+90 at 2,2820.Happy and flat.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:49 GMT - EUR/USD : It has a good potential to move lower.

Belgrad KZ 13:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 13:15 GMT June 21, 2004
What are your expectations about the figures and the market reaction? TIA
BTW great call van Gecko for USD/CAD!

HK Kevin 13:49 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, good evening. EUR may test you 1.2027 key level tonight.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 13:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
chown? dun get it, Revdax.

hk revdax 13:47 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab//Have you had a few 'chown' tonight for dinner with your c9?

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 13:45 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
welcome to eur/jpy 130 line.

I will close out those eur/jpy shorts if we see 129.xx prints and even do a s/t reverse to go long.

hk revdax 13:44 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Anyone trading euro/chf these days?

UAE Oil man 13:42 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Yes Jim, your accounts are in monetary value (for the most part I guess) in Euro or USD..Thus the strategy back at the time at .9920 (which was posted on december 4 2002 but erased with Global view removing old posts...thus i reposted it in january 2003)to long euro was change all to euro(or start accumulating)..
Then in december 2003-january 2004 roughly 1.25-1.35 area start accumulating the CHEAP dollars for the next cycle.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:39 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:29 GMT June 20, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2385 - 1.2478.The key quantized level is expected at 1.2507 ................................................................

Gen dk 13:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bruxville Jim 13:35 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Oil man, I'm sorry but what is 'main cash'? Is it 1:1 leverage?

BULGARIA TURBO GAZARA 13:33 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR TG 1.22 DIS NIGHT

Kaunas NM 13:33 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:24 GMT June 21, 2004

i just lost a big chunk of confidence in you.
after these "forecasts".

BULGARIA GAZARA 13:32 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
BUY EUR$ BUY ON DIPS

Bruxville Jim 13:29 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:24 GMT // Are you expecting 0.6500 in 1.5 yrs? Could you give a valid reasoning for this?

UAE Oil man 13:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
As for implications of interests rates differentials and my previous post, which most people will not be able to play ..as this long term strategies are valid only for the main cash deposits...

UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x
Then 1.0450
Then 1.16+
1.12
1.26
the coccoon is ready to mature!
-------------
December 31 2003 :
Sell EURO$ 1.25-1.35 (use options if u have too) target .9550..(before .6500 in 2 years.)

Ciao happy new year .

UAE Oil man 13:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
In all markets wisdom, due to the simple game more or less of 0 sum game(again More or less cause it's not really a 0 sum..there's lot of bacterias ..as in any exchange markets..which makes it negative), most people will be holding Euro longs when it s going back under parity..and Vice versa...and most people will be calling E$ up while it's going down..(and Down when it's going up..)
If it wasnt the case there wouldnt be any Forex market..(or any Exchange-Trading markets)

Livingston nh 13:15 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Canadian CPI figures out tomorrow (might support CAD) - good indicator for BoC action post Fed

UAE Oil man 13:06 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Ya Martin, one also has to remember that the only time Greenie was that much behind the curve was in 1994...
And rates took a 250 hikes..
Euro reconstructed levels were at 1.40 or so (we could talk DM but it would only complicate matters as we're not precisely talking charts but a general views..where a few couple of 100's pips don't matter)..and finished after the rate hike cycles near .9200 (the rest to .8300 was the panic spike.)..

Offcourse one could fight for the last drop of blood out of this $ weakness cycle and be ready to be burned sooner or later for a couple hundred pips..

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 13:05 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
It will be a 74-75 fight. Let's see if it closes under / above which barrier first.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:04 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Entry Time is at End of US Session...Not Now

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 13:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy struggled to break 75 will not be a good sign for aud

UAE Oil man 12:51 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I don't think the flag over Rising oil prices, just be placed now, we are in low consumption months, and still 36 isnt broken..

Bruxville Jim 12:39 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay, what's up?

GVI Jay 12:36 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville, please check your email

Gen dk 12:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LHR B747 12:30 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
"Iraq has resumed exporting about one million barrels a day through its southern Basra terminal after completing repairs to one of two pipelines sabotaged last week."


FYI & GT

Ldn pm 12:20 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim - thks vm

chicago cal 12:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
right, range trades seem to be the most popular theme today

Bruxville Jim 12:15 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Concerning the overvaluation issue:

[07:19 GBP/USD: Extends South - Cable 21% Overvaluation touted] London, June 21: Cble has extended its profit-taking on long position-assisted decline from an Asian session high of 1.8400/10 to a fresh base of 1.8332 since the European open, with Rightmove figures revealing that UK house prices fell by 0.4% between
June 6 and 12 (Daily Telegraph, p27) helping weigh.
A survey conducted by a leading player suggesting that cable may be as much as 21% overvalued (The Business, p2) is also helping depress the pair, as is MPC member Lambert"s weekend comment (in Saturday"s Guardian) that 50bp UK base rate hikes are neither "necessary nor appropriate" at present. 1.8300 serves as a bear target in the event of a break below 1.8332, with sub-figure support pegged at 1.8270, and Friday"s low of 1.8255. Resistance runs t 1.8375 (Asian session low). [email protected]

Gold Coast martin 12:14 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
LIVINGSTON...agree about about deficit not been bad...all large companies run on overdrafts...the key is to manage the debt and keep it under control by finding ways to improve the bottom line so that more investors are attracted on return as well as the perception of long term capital gain on their dollar...good trades....

LHR B747 12:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Cal,

EUR/USD @ 1.2155/60 would be T/P , SAR or hold from your point of view?


GT

Ldn pm 12:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Note some talk about Gbp being 'overvalued' - anyone have a link to this please ?

chicago cal 12:10 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
i don't know when or if but, i bot some euro's about an hour ago will buy more if 1.2170 breaks or look to tp if that price fails; it may break in an hour or when you said it would

LHR B747 12:02 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 12:00 GMT June 21, 2004:

Good afternoon to you cal,

I agree with you but I do not see break of 1.2170 before 30/JUN/2004, please let me know when the crystal ball showing you this break.

GT

Gold Coast martin 12:02 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
HONK KONG ..nt...not at all..by new highs i meant 123 tops...highest recently...the 130 is not even on the radar due to the fundamental weakness of the european union countries..in fact my system has indicated PARITY by 30th of december based on fundamentals when it compared to US fundamentals...i am doing more detailed research before i fully commit to such a signal...bottom line: look for 11970 prior to 30th of june,..116 mid july......g/t

UAE Oil man 12:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
just iran who captured 3 U.K vessels.

chicago cal 12:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will pick up bullish momentum if 1.2170 breaks

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 11:59 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Any news? Gold +EUR spike .. TIA

Livingston nh 11:56 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Martin -fwiw - higher interest rates in US are not good for USD (something to do with declining asset prices, valuations or such) and the trade deficit is not "bad" as long as exports AND imports grow

hong kong nt 11:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 11:48 GMT -- in Euro term, do you mean seeing 1.16 in June and 1.30 in July?

Gold Coast martin 11:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI..bc....summer volatility combined with 'MEASURED INTEREST HIKES"(measured according to inflation...fedspeak} will ensure that we see new highs for the $ as well as new lows...overall more new highs than lows for the year....in the short term we will see new highs before and shortly after the 30th of june,with the possiblity of a new low in mid july when market starts to re-focus on US CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT...AT THAT POINT THE US will have to find new avenues to finance its foreign debt apart from relying on the waning enthusiasm of the asian central banks...one way would be to agressive step up its interest rate hikes to attract flows back into the US market...g/trades

vta baluka 11:37 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
BULGARIA GAZARA , ne kupuvai a prodavai

Stockholm za 11:36 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... on /$ ..... My ema fibo comes in today in a tight flat range ( 1,2118-1,2092 ) except for ema 233 which is flat on 1,2023... so when ever they burst away make sure you are on the right side of the trade for x00 pips....
Happy trades...

Porto PJT 11:34 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 11:25 , interesting, i usual associatte one with another, but looking to yen i see a diferent relation like you are mentioning for usd now, thank you.

hk revdax 11:28 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
IMO...$ is going up today..short term...very very short term...particularly $/CAD.

shanghai bc 11:25 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   

PJT 10:21 - Good evening..Expecting a weak Dollar cycle along with rate hike cycle..We may still have to see new low of Dollar this year..Good trades..

chicago cal 11:25 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
bids on eur/usd were tipped at 1.2080

chicago cal 11:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
scooped up some sterling a little bit ago

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 11:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
84.....maybe after October

BULGARIA GAZARA 11:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD BUY AT MARKET TG 1.2170 1-ST>1.2200/1.2359 SPOT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 10:18 GMT June 21, 2004 /
Aus/Yen...Best buy for a Month...Going back to 84

Nottingham 11:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 10:40 GMT

Hard to call as no momentum + neutral as far as range concerned...10 day sma has capped rallies reasonably well lately and currently pair sits just below it...as things stand weakness may unfold later in session if the average is not overcome, but I'm bound to say there isn't much interest about so convcition may be limited unless the pair makes the upside play which should shake a few into action...gl gt

Mtl JP 10:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
revdax 10:40 / preferable to sell 6990 on next approach

HK Kevin 10:42 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 09:22 GMT, I have covered the short eur/jpy position from 131.85 at 131.18 earlier. Will sell again close to 132.
Now just hold long USD/CAD from 1.3645

hk revdax 10:40 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
In a nutshell, is Aud/$ strengthening or weakening near term(2-3 days)?

Nottingham 10:29 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 10:16 GMT

you can easily write a thousand word trading note on this subject (which I did last week) but simply put I would concentrate on 6770...the well documented bottoming structure (focused on 7200-7400) remains intact whilst the market holds above that level thus you will get your supportive flows whilst this continues to be the case...a failure to hold would bring 6400-6500 into play; that zone could be hit quite soon following any break given the time spent building the current base...gl gt

Porto PJT 10:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
BC, hope everything ok with you, are you waiting a rate hike from fed?if yes you see it already discounted? tia and good trades.

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 10:18 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, if aud/jpy is so struggling to get thru 75... think aud follows aud/jpy.

hk revdax 10:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Would appreciate some comments on Aud/$'s near term trend. TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Singapore Sfx 10:02 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
cheers haifa - good luck mate.

Haifa ac 09:59 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 09:27 // You may be right. Matter of time frame. Seems to me we spent enough time in the 131-132 zone and we are breaking out of it. 128.37 for me is a "creek" (Wyckoff term)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:42 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Eur going back to same high...Not worth it for today

shanghai bc 09:38 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   

Barring further interventions,Usd/Jpy may easily reach 105-100 region..Yen crosses may follow too making Eur/Usd well contained in 1.19-1.25 range while Yen does all the heavy lifting..JGB market is forcing Yen to rise further..Fwiw.

ps 09:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Mr. X you are still in my sistem what you looking for???????

Singapore Sfx 09:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ....... 130-131 a big big swing lvl imho ...
Feb-Mar '03 highs
July 03 lows
Oct 03 highs
Nov 03 highs
Dec 03 Lows
Jan 04 lows
Mar 04 lows
April 04 highs

Just pointing out that its anything but a "no support zone" ..
whats 128.37 btw, ? apart from the t/l ?

Haifa ac 09:26 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 09:21 GMT June 21, 2004
Haifa ac 09:18 GMT //What about 130,70?// Not on the daily chart.

Plovdiv Gotin 09:23 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
130.78

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 09:22 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
nice eur/jpy attacks

LAX-LGB SNP 09:22 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 09:19 GMT June 21, 2004
closing all anti-USD trades and longing eur & gbp v/s jpy once again :-)

Bruxville Jim 09:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:18 GMT //What about 130,70?

Haifa ac 09:18 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Euroyen...there is really no support until 128.37 (131.04 now)

hk ab nzd 0.59 double bottom 08:53 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Oilman, will u be sidelined until 30th June?

Gen dk 08:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa ac 08:29 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 07:31 GMT June 21, 2004
"...I'm the one that gets carried away ...LOL....WOW"

As long as it is not on a stretcher--it's OK.

lnd 08:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
chester wb 08:24 GMT. most sane people called it a night some five hours ago. gl gt. sweet dreams.

UAE Oil man 08:26 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Not really ICT ML..he(the player) might have a good point however it's not cause fair value is 20% lower that it will go there..

In anycase only one week left before the first hike by the fed, I guess the most hardly hit will be the High yielders (ZAR,AUD,GBP,EUR ,more or less in this order) and $/Cad.

So watch out for possible bargains till then.

Gl to everyone.

chester wb 08:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
stop on short euro at +5 (1.2120) t/p at 1.2065- calling it a night..3:30 am here

Hong Kong Qindex 08:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:14 GMT - USD/JPY : This one certainly has a good potential to go down further but I would prefer it to retreat and build up a better downward trending momentum.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:13 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - Good evening! The market is back to normal.

london 07:43 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
that big cable player must be carrying possies 20% underwater.... cable ready to print 186 again

HK Kevin 07:40 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, my previous post should read "I think both USD/JPY and eur/jpy will consolidate around 108-109 and 131-132 early this week"

HK Kevin 07:34 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I think both USD/JPY and eur/jpy will consolidate around 108-109 and 131-132 before Wed and then suddenly continue its downward marching when most traders think a bottom is being formed.

ICT ML 07:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
IFR saying big cable player says its over valued by 20%....that puts fair value at 1.4720 area by my calculations then ....and people around here think I'm the one that gets carried away with targets sometimes...LOL....WOW

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
NZ is good to short I think for 1.1 figures

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:23 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I Just QQQ to Post the levels for FX...at the bottom just in case

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:21 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Guys.. :)

brisbane sunstate 07:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
yes bahrain no problem

hk ab eur/chf 1.43 Long Term 07:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
wonder why aud can't hold the strength to survive above the .69 line by its cousin aud/jpy.

Perth pm 07:12 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:07 GMT June 21, 2004
yes, can see it.

hk ab eur/chf 1.43 Long Term 07:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/jpy will make anything under 130 soon.

And I will buy at the long term weekly support line with a bit wider stops.
Not bad for running 500 pips for each of those shorts made previously.

eur/gbp, eur/chf cousins are back?

MONACO OGA 07:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 21/06
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2110), 110 pips higher than Friday opening. The market tried the downsides during european session (low 1,1975) before rebounding and hedging higher later in the day on wider than expected US current account Q1deficit (record -144,9 Bio). We favour range trading for today again, with first support around 1,2060 while resistance should appear above 1,2150 (stronger one at 1,2200). The big picture hasn't changed, we still believe the market will hover inside 1,1750-1,2350 for some time.
No important data out today.

Gold at 394,00, with WTI July at 38.66

***JPY***
USD/JPY (108,50). The pair dipped one full point since Friday on USD general weakness. Overnight the pair printed a 7 week low on strong japanese stock performance, and on future rate hikes expectations. We still believe that USD/JPY is defining a new 108-112 trading range although some option related activity might push the pair lower. Rumours of BOJ checking prices are resurfacing again...
EUR/JPY currently 131.60, prety stable and unchangeds against the EUR today.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8370), rebounded on 1,8240 Friday but was rejected again ahead of 1,8400. 1,81-1,85 range has been containing the market since the end of May. Playing the range still seems to be a valid strategy.
EUR/GBP (0,6600). The cross rebounded from 0,6550 critical support to current levels. We are neutral.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
http://moneycentral.msn.com/community/recommend/recindivrec.asp?HandleID=kalzayani&Symbol=QQQ&StartDate=6/20/2004

Can Any please tell me if they can see the page above?

london 06:57 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
gold heading for $400 again should finish off the dollar.

Ldn 06:48 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Whats the conspiracy theory of the day, ab ?

hk ab eur/chf 1.43 Long Term 06:45 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
a true fight of eur/jpy.

Qindex good afternoon and good trades.

Final week before crazy summer comes.

chester wb 06:32 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
sold euro @ 1.2125

ps 06:13 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
bla bla bla and frinze the screen
thanks all

los angeles cjj 05:29 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
long yen technical signal weak sorry

los angeles cjj 05:28 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
From Columbia University economist- Long Yen Tecnical ignal Weak

Ina mr.co'z 04:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
hello all !

Thirty-six of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on Friday predict the bank will leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged next month and raise it a quarter point to 4.75 percent in August. Three expect an increase in July and two in September.

Saihat 04:04 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
jpy-daliy
110.40 110.46
109.80 109.86
pp
(109.07 109.03
109.16 109.22)

108.52 108.58
107.92 107.98

houston st 03:31 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
I'm reminded of one of bc's comments a few weeks ago regarding a rise in rates:

"In the medium-term, rate rise in a debt-ridden economy can only be a disaster for the currency of that economy.."

fwiw..gl/gt.

houston st 03:27 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 03:16 GMT -- my 2 cents worth...nothing to prop the $ up short-term other than the expectation of the rate hike..whether 25 or 50bps is anyone's guess at the moment..after rate hike it may make new lows..one of the wild cards now is how low will it go before June 30...this is all conjecture on my part and truthfully I would wait for clearer signals, but one thing for sure in trading is it never hurts to bank at least partial profits...good trades.

Sydney Alimin 03:25 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
dont rush it guys, monday morning is always full of surprise, in 3-5 hours we should see some real moves

Minnesota Mark 03:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY -- I'm still holding my option for almost two months now.. JPY Finally got down into the low 108's I've been waiting for mid 107's to take profit...

QUESTION: What is the general concensus for the Yen at this point. And, is the thought that it will push down hard or will it play around like it has the past month?

Any and all input would be welcome so I can make a choice as to which senario will play out. Thank You.

nyc sa 03:14 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Qindex , do u see further downside to $/jpy ? As far as the GBP/ jpy is concerned I understand why u do not wish to comment .. I feel the quick run up of this pair invites suspicion as to the reasons . It will go down just as fast as it went up with some negative event or news taking GBP down big time for instance ..the question is timing . It might go sideways for a while and then a big Kaboom maybe ...any views ?

Hong Kong Qindex 02:33 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 02:32 GMT - AUD/USD : It will not move too far away from the current level, see my page.

Brisbane L 02:32 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex I presume this will have a negative affect on the aud thanks

Sydney bl 02:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex whanks

Hong Kong Qindex 02:16 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 02:11 GMT - EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY : I am neutral on this two and don't want to make any comment.

Sydney bl 02:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
good morning Dr Qindex what's you view on EUR/JPY

Hong Kong Qindex 02:08 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : All my projected chart points are interrelated and are separated by a single or multiple of a constant, the market rhythm. In the case of the 22-day cycle the market rhythm is represented by 6.2.


Spot Gold : A Strong Pullback is Imminent


Spot Gold (22-Day Cycle) : The pattern of my 22-day cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to trade between 383.5 - 396 initially next week. The distribution profile of my probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 358.6 - 396. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 383.5. A projected barrier is located at 371.1 - 377.3.


... 352.5 // 358.6 - 364.9 - 371.1 // 377.3 - 383.5 - 389.8 - 396 // 402.2 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 02:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:00 GMT - I usually don't want to comment on individual trade.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:05 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 17:10 GMT - There is only one key quantized level(super magnet) but many other quantized levels for a specify cycle time frame.

Minnesota Mark 01:30 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Cairo Amgad 01:15 GMT June 21, 2004 --Disipline young grasshopper.... breath deep, relax, let the trades come to you, don't force 'em...

Saihat 01:24 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP-WEEKLY
1.8589 1.8655
1.8035 1.8101
key pips
1.8277 1.8304
1.8224 1.8290

1.8413 1.8479
1.7859 1.7925

DALIY
1.8485 1.8526
1.8298 1.8339
PP
1.8346 1.8356
1.8328 1.8369

1.8358 1.8399
1.8171 1.8212




Cairo Amgad 01:15 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
ok, now it seems too risky, i will close them at entry level or small profit and wait for tommorow, i think picture is not very clear monday morning, at least there will be corrrection in both sides as 1 hour chart could not tell me much and i can not hold large stop loss as my equity is a littel small


Thank you very much for your help. GL and GT

May you add me on yahoo: [email protected] if it does not bother you AG and Cairo, Thanks

Cairo 01:07 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Amgad your trades are counter trend, USD is going much lower this week.

CAIRO AG 00:52 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Amgad: Told u, even if $Y longs a bit... ure going against the trend my dear....

What i mean is, even if ut will long a bit, it might turn on you at any time... so why the risk in a business already full of risk??

I would close at tiny profit and leave....

GL & GT

Cairo Amgad 00:30 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
refering to your comment Cairo AG, i close Long GBP/USD at entry level 1.8388 as it seems you all do not agree on it.

I still have :
Long USD/JPY at 108.80 , Please comment on my plan i posted a minutes ago about it so i can make decision,

Short EUR/USD at 1.2133

Long USD/CAD at 1.3606

I might long GBP/USD again if it break 1.8400-10 and will short it if it break 1.8350-60.

Thank you again for your valuable notes, GL, GT

Cairo Amgad 00:17 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Cairo 00:11 GMT June 21, 2004
Amgad close them all ASAP before you shout Omigod!!

Thank you friend but i would appritiate short comment on any of them , why you think it will hurt? Sorry for taking your time.

Cairo Amgad 00:13 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you all, Chicago YM, and Porto PTJ. Specail Thanks to Cairo AG,

About USD/JPY, I found it was not strong enough to cross 108.67 line " support comming from June 9, 2004 Low" , it migh return nack to 110.60 but I prefer small profit on short trade and will close at 109.80

as you say not expecting 200pip or it will crash , my targets are 50 to 75 pips and i never exceed 35pip stop loss.

Thank you very much for your help and i wish to see your comments on that if right or wrong?

Cairo 00:11 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
Amgad close them all ASAP before you shout Omigod!!

CAIRO AG 00:00 GMT June 21, 2004 Reply   
TWO THINGS: If r short term, than dont plan for 200 pips target my friend.

For the Euro and the CAD, If it will work, i think uu will have to widen ur stop for an extra 15-30 pips.... IMO

Good luck

 




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