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Forex Forum Archive for 06/30/2004

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Bruxville Jim 23:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
+22 versus forecast of +17 (previously +12)

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur gbp both lining up for buys

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
forgive me, i should have read the posts before about tankan.. initially i thought it was some new type of derivative alogrithm related to ichimoku.

now i know it is a report.... but what exactly is published in it?

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
by the time i typed up that JPY is getting ready for a sell.. it moved way too fast!

fwiw..

JPY BUYERS SELLERS
5.76 47.74

jakarta r4v3n 23:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
tankan is a survey published by the boj every 3 months.
useful when u are trading yen and nikkei.

Chicago YM 23:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
i have no comment

Brisbane Ron 23:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Aud heading for .7200.

Bruxville Jim 23:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
01Jul 23:50 JPY Tankan mfg sent DI Jun prev12 !17! min14 max21

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
what on earth is tankan? and what exactly does it do?

Minnesota Mark 23:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BOJ [TANKAN] preview: Large mnfs" DI is expected to improve to +16 vs +12 in Mar. Small mnfs" DI is expected to rise to +1 from -3. Large non-mnfs" DI and small non-mnfs" DI would be +8 and -17 vs +5 and -20. Sep DI's are also f/c to improve to +16, +2, +9 and -16 respectively. Domestic econ has hit the bottom in Jan 2002, and GDP has continued to post positive growth since Q2 2002. Nominal GDP has also marked positive growth since Q2 2003. Broad based growth is now seen with not only external demand but private consumption and capex leading the growth. Companies" current profits vs sales are increasing both in mnfs and non-mnfs, according to corp survey. As for FY2004 capex plan, large cos in all industries would rise to +4.5% vs -0.6%, and small cos also be higher at -11.0% vs -18.1%.

Bruxville Jim 23:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
mtl gg 23:40 GMT // This week's Biscuit Range:
USD/JPY: 105.91 - 109.28

Jakarta r4v3n 23:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
anybody know what is the expectation for tankan? tia

mtl gg 23:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
the expectation (?) is for usd/jpy to move towards 107 no? I see all kinds of jockying for position.

Bruxville Jim 23:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ms.Tankan speaking on the wires very soon:) Might see a 50 pips move in usd/jpy immediately after this.

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
23:50 for TAKKAN for you guys just coming on

GVI john 23:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GVI FOREX SURVEY

The second GVI biweekly forex survey of professional traders resulted in another set of interesting responses. Our sample size increased to 87 from 78 in mid-June and it appears that a more unified outlook on the market emerged.

The short-term outlook for the market was remarkably narrow in terms of the forecasts of traders for where the dollar will close in Europe on July 9. The base values at the time of the survey were: eur/$ 1.2080 and $/yen 108.30. Mean forecasted levels were 1.2093 (standard deviation 5.31) and 108.24 (7.18). Thus while each of the two dollar values are seen unchanged, there is a wide range of views. If these forecast are representative of the markets, to some this might suggest that the market is not heavily unbalanced (overbought or oversold) in either direction.

In our special topic we asked what the main forex theme would be in the second half of this year: twin deficits (budget and trade), monetary policy/interest rates, or politics/terrorism. Monetary policy outpolled the deficits by about two and one half to one. This is a curious result because the dollar is seen lower by yearend and most attribute its weakness to the twin deficits.

In our tracking polls, those expecting Bush to beat Kerry in November increased insignificantly from two weeks ago to 72%-28% from 71%-29%. As for yearend dollar values, the eur/$ is seen at 1.2152 (10.28) from 1.2030 (13.08) a week ago. The $/yen is seen at 106.11 (10.28) from 108.18 (10.04). Note that the standard deviation on the higher eur/$ forecast narrowed indicating that this view is becoming more widespread.

CLICK HERE FOR RESULTS

WE WANT TO HEAR YOUR COMMENTS.

Dallas GEP 22:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY could be nasty ride. You might need a 60-70 pip stop on that one.

Calabash TarHeel 22:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Bon TOM 22:36 GMT June 30, 2004
You may very well be right, but I don't see it that way.

Dallas GEP 22:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OK I like 198.13 for gbp/jpy short, 132.80 for E/y short

KL KL 22:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, do you have possie on eurjpy & gbpjpy...tia...looking to short at current levels

Bon TOM 22:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 20:02 GMT June 30, 2004,yes Mr:Flip that is the point,the first and the last 0,25for this year.Japan still in the FED memory IMO..

NY,NY GFX_PWS 22:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ECB @ 1245BST or 745EST

rom nick 22:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
when will ECB announce rates?

Bon TOM 22:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
No one is talking here about the ECB...after 14h 90% we will see 2,25% any idea about that

Gold Coast martin 22:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
While the euros attempt yet again at the critical 12220 level has failed, the aussie is headed for a breach of the 6950 level ...Should this level break we are back to 6870 in no time...g/t

Calabash TarHeel 22:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
That is pretty much the way I trade. Wait for prices that imho give me a good hand, worth playing anyway. If it goes my way great, take profits and wait for the next trade. If it is not going my way, don't throw good money after bad, close/fold, wait for the next trade,
Take care

Dallas GEP 22:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LOL No Martin, it wasn't her. BTW for anyone wishing to do possies on the AUSSIE, that is NOT a fast moving pair. VERY lazy at times so don't put ALL your money in that basket if you wish to trade someting else in the meantime.

Gold Coast martin 21:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP...that wasnt MELBOURNE FARMACIA?LOL

Dallas GEP 21:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm,, Blackjack....The other day I was playing and dealer had a 5 as an up card. The idiot playing BEFORE me stands on a HARD 5 (3 & 2) because he THINKS the next card is a face card and he want to give it to me because he knows I am doubling down. What a goof!!!!.....dealer then draws to a 20 and beats everyone at the table. the cards are totally screwed up after that and I paid the guy to leave the table. UNBELEIVABLE!!!

FX can be the same way, Don't THINK too much. Play the percentages . React to market conditions the best way you can and have a EXIT plan UPFRONT if you are wrong.

UAE Oil man 21:52 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps but it's a small animal, and it gets fed and full pretty quick..

Gold Coast martin 21:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE..The kangaroo has jumped into a green field and is grazing for 3 days....maybe....

Gold Coast martin 21:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
London..HE!HE!,,Dont be misled by the manner of my latest posts...maybe a touch reflective for the duration and aftermath of the fed rate hike...but make no mistake...my black box has got the euro and usd in the red until december the 30th...g/t

UAE Oil man 21:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Another recovery london?..it recovers every 3 days that ozi ..lol.

London 21:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Aussie gained ground today as traders are beginning to
anticipate RBA rate hikes again ahead of the next meeting July 7th, with May's 1.2% rise in private sector credit taking it to a 14-1/2 year high. Yieldspreads have risen to 126 bps vs. 10-year US Treasuries and the recent expansion may attract buyers. There is further evidence that the market is set to test the middle of the 0.6800/0.7200 range at 0.7000. Many see today's break above 0.6950 as endorsing further gains in the days ahead
ifr.(extracts)

London 21:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin agree however, your post are bearish to the degree that you are now a $USD bull with every post

st. pete islander 21:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 21:21 GMT June 30, 2004

Not bad at all, thanks. Sir Alan didn't shock anyone and that's just as well. Down side is maybe more range trading for the summer. Good luck with the "house money". Just like blackjack. gt

Chambery FR JFB 21:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
G'night all :-)
Fwiw, just got another sell signal for eur/usd, so adding some @1.2184 traded. Time for a sleep, CU all tomorrow...
Happy trades :-)

Calabash TarHeel 21:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 21:24 GMT June 30, 2004
Thanks Oil man. I've had a good week, playing this one with house money so to speak, doesn't mean I want to give up any, but not so painful if I have to eat it.
Take care.

Gold Coast martin 21:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LONDON...painful yes....not denying that...but no pain no gain...the painful shorts all become part of the medium to long trades which have a downward bias....within a time frame of course...g/t

UAE Oil man 21:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
they coming out 10 minutes before midnight GMT..just to make everyone tremble..THE BOJ IS A GHOST ..LoL.

UAE Oil man 21:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ya gep.

Dallas GEP 21:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Is Takkan 23:50 guys???

London 21:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin if your short as you mentioned in earlier post sub 68 - van geckos mention of holding shorts must be quite painful !!!

UAE Oil man 21:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GL, Tarheel..I wanted 24 but decided against it..
have enough to rock the boat..

Dallas GEP 21:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OK leaving for a couple of hours but the Euro could be starting it's southbound train, Any pip ups from here would be a good place to get short IMO. 1.2195 to 1.2199 would be good IMO

Dallas GEP 21:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OK guys on the usd/cad longs you do have to watch the eur/cad SHORTS because it can pull usd.cad down but it SHOULDn'T have as big an influence as the USD when it starts to go bullish

Calabash TarHeel 21:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 21:12 GMT June 30, 2004
Islander, I hope so, that's a 170 pip drop today. Looked to be o/s and expect some retracement from around here. Who knows, may wind up eating it.
How goes it with you today.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have retracement numbers for eur/usd at around 1.2170-75, 1.2150-55 and 1.2120-25 if the resistance holds for now IMHO.

st. pete islander 21:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Okay, TarHeel .... north form here, right? gl

Calabash TarHeel 21:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Correction, filled 1.3330, typo,, sorry

Calabash TarHeel 20:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, buy order on $/cad 1.3320 filled, s/l below 1.3280 t/p open. See what happens.

Porto PJT 20:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Omil, good trades to you.

Zorro , we are on the final, olé.

Dublin Flip 20:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I agree that the Fed doesn't want to rock the boat mate so I don't see some enormous rate hiking frenzy to underpin a dollar surge. It seems to me every week we are getting more noises from Snow and Greenspan about the double deficits and sound slike they are talking down the dollar again (to me)
to continue maximizing the US profit/employment outlooks. I don't know whether the US is going to slow at the moment (next year is my tip) but then I don't see a strong USdollar as being in anyones intrest and it's certainly not a weathervane for how an economy is travelling -otherwise the ozzie would be above parity after the past five years performance-LOL
best of luck mate.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Congratulations on the victory by Portugal (2-1) over Holland.

Porto PJT 20:41 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
YES, Portugal.....................

Calabash TarHeel 20:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 20:02 GMT June 30, 2004
This is not to dispute anything you have stated. It is just to say that having lived here many, many years, watching the ups and down in our economy, there is nothing happening to indicate that the economy is slowing down. Actually, judging by the number of plants being retooled and reopened, new housing still booming. tourism booming, etc, it says that the economy is still picking up steam.
What this has to say about the fx market, probably nothing, but I do expect the economy to improve for awhile yet to come. This is an election year and people here have a tendency to vote their wallets, so I don't see the Fed doing anything to rock the boat.
Good luck and take care.

Gold Coast martin 20:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EURO ..Looking tired of bashing its head against the 1220 resistance level...a retreat to 12140 is pending...

Dublin Flip 20:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
You have to take the Fed's comments at face value and it isn't implying 50BPs in August. The market has built alot of rate hikes into the strip. Things like the other day's GDP revsion to 3.9 are all reasons for the intrest rate market to take a breather. I think dollar is vulnerable to dissapointing data in the next few weeks.

Gold Coast martin 20:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP....the fed statement while dovish in effect, will have a short term positive flow on the cable and aud..in fact we are seeing it right now...however The statement is an open book in leaving uncle AL and his chronies to comment and respond according to market conditions...and we all know what a few words of encouragement from him can do to the market..it is this open ambiguity that will have the market guessing and when the market guesses the rumour sells...THE STATEMENT is a brilliantly prepared document that delivered little but promises a lot so as to maintain the current equilibrium before the election...g/t...

Dublin Flip 20:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Martin I actually think the dovishness of the Fed's statement is a pretty positive development for both cable and ozz. UK and Ozz have both had data out recently to suggest that despite the fact they are well into the rate hike cycle they may well have not finished. The Fed have today hosed down speculation that the rate hike cycle is one way course to 5%. Given that the economy is already slowing, oil has topped and many confused signals from the retail sector it's going to be slow and measured. As I've said before 2.5 could be the new 4.5. I think the Fed is mindful of the BOJ's mistakes at a similar stage in the early ninties when it hiked too agressively at the first sign of inflation and choked off the recovery. Given the mountain of debt in Japan is still having a deflationary effect there (last CPI was -0.5 I think) it doesn't seem a stretch to think it won't eventually be a factor in the US. People have looked in their funding out for the next eighteen months now. The Fed may just ride it up the curve but there is still a risk of the cycle not being completed. "Normal" Intrest rates for Australia were considered by Stevens to be 6.5-7.5% only late last year I believe he said.
I think ozz and cable (I understand Euro may be sluggish) should be well supported over the next couple of weeks unless NFP comes in collosal.

hk ab lazy 20:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Portugal 2:0 Holland...

Holand looks so tired.

Gold Coast martin 19:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
CALABASH..You may see the levels you are targeting an hour into the australian session...g/t....g/t

Calabash TarHeel 19:52 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 19:34 GMT June 30, 2004
Hello Martin, I am going to sell the aud and kiwi somewhere along the line. I am going to give it a little time and see if the aud can be had in the .7010/20 range, may not happen.
gl,gt

Gold Coast martin 19:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE...More aussie pips for everyone and more euro stamps for zorro...he!he!

hk ab lazy 19:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
See such a distorted mkt yet? Cad celebrate the 0.1% GDP with a break of 1.34....

such irrational break occured upside few weeks ago, in about a week time, the true move will set in later.

bc word's on ranging mkt rather than a trend mkt is valued.

UAE Oil man 19:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Yes martin, that AUD$ is ready to spit some more pips..it's a GOLD COAST OF PIPS ..Ah.Ah.

hk ab lazy 19:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:09 GMT June 30, 2004
day trade money now liquidating before the FOMC and will invade again once a "0.25" is flashing.

Guess the close will be around 1.22 if they come in again WITH a "0.25".

"0" would be equivalent to "1.24" but next move will become mroe and more interesting.




Work NOW!

UAE Oil man 19:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Sell euro 1.2193 stops 37, target the moon and fast.

quito_valdez at yahoo 19:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I see the eur/usd chart just proceeding up gradually as it has been, low 1.22xx. I think it'll just be part of the game maybe rest of today-tomorrow's Asian-London session... just like a couple days ago...then back down in it's normal range cycle to 1.2060-1/2120 to give GEP his "selected shorts". With ya, GEP, thanks for the call.

houston st 19:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 19:31 GMT--early this morning it looked like gbp/jpy had stalled out at 38.2% fib, and I sold @ 196.32..looked good for awhile but couldn't break under 195.70..no follow through and then yen sellers galore ruined that deal..waiting on Asia session to see what transpires there...hoping to see some yen strength by Friday, but as they say the market is always right..take care.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP has been rising for 3 weeks
if it cannot close this week above the falling TL (06/23/03-11/03/03) then its time to aim for the old (_|_) @ mid-0.65

Gold Coast martin 19:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BRUXVILLE...WAIT UNTIL IT GETS TO 6990-95 LEVEL AND THEN SHORT WITH TARGET OF 6935...G/T..alternatively 6975-80 is still a good short....g/t

Bruxville Jim 19:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 19:20 GMT // Do you recommend shorting aussie now?

LAX-LGB SNP 19:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ST
eurjpy's failed below 50 dma & closing below 21 dma, gbpjpy also below 10 dma
but i'll be more confident once price is safely below the 132.74-132.69 and 197.95-197.83 zones for eurjpy and gbpjpy respectively

GEP
Rafe's the bandmaster, ML's the beastmaster and you're the contra-king ;-) !

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I don’t have a sell confirmation for eur/usd pair although the 1.2200-10 is being defended well so far.

Dallas GEP 19:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd @ 1.2190 target 1,2140

houston st 19:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 19:15 GMT--have felt that way all week long, but so far it's resisted strengthening..maybe tonite/tomorrow nite w/ booksquaring and Tankan report.

Gold Coast martin 19:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
A reliance on the fed to set a trend for the euro in the medium term has not occured in either direction so its back to the drawing table with the employment figures to look forward to on friday..just proves that there is no easy money in this game....g/t

quito_valdez at yahoo 19:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I still have my eur/usd 1.2130 long in place...will hold that; the pair is on general uptrend w or w/o mkt jitter. The amusing high inflation hype we've heard has been (I agree) snubbed by the Fed...Greenspan said: "With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low..." and the rest of the rather ho hum speach indicates to me no more Fed rate hikes in the near future...no reason to and many reasons why not to. BTW .25% tacked on to the prime = $100+- more house payment, i.e. for a $1,000 payment to sustain totaling $1,100, so don't think the trickle down is only 1/4th%. It will be felt in the realestate, construction, auto, & commercial loan sectors. Bad idea in my book but I ain't Greenspan.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
closed all conti-major longs for profit and one ill-timed gbpchf for a small loss - feel i should load up on yen but too early to pick a top agst BoJ

p.s. Oil man i hear ya ... Fed's getting over-rated nowadays

Rye, NY et 19:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:59 GMT June 30, 2004
I agree with you...Thanks.......................

UAE Oil man 19:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
But looks ok on euro/gbp front lol...the snail roll giver.

prague viktor 19:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BB I hope we will be lucky all the time,and we will see the next level1,23 ..G/L

UAE Oil man 19:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Yawn.......so much for volatility picking up..

USA Biscuit Boy 19:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Stubbs I don't know anything about cableyen........better for me to roll the dice at another table.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi Viktor.....luck definately with us this week....chf weakened more than I expected initially but usd/chf firmly below 1.2623 now.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 18:55 GMT June 30, 2004
Yes I have seen it and that confirms that even on what I consider a tight range for eur/usd it is still in a bullish channel IMHO.

prague viktor 18:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BB:Good day,your levels 109,28-132,93-1,2066-1,8034 perfect work...G/T

USA Biscuit Boy 18:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP starting to look comfortable above 0.67....maybe we test the trendline resistance at 0.6740 Oilman mentioned before too long.

houston st 18:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami--even a blind squirrel can find a pecan ocassionally! :)
good luck to all in H2!

manila stubbs 18:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:42 GMT June 30, 2004
gbp/jpy still good to short? TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st 18:52 GMT June 30, 2004
I am glad you got the joke ;-)

Rye, NY et 18:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:50 GMT June 30, 2004
HaHaaaaaaaaaa....................................
Thank you, sir.......................................
If you're into Fibonacci numbers, check the
relationship between "our" mutual line and
the two most recent up-channels.............
Very nice fit..........................................
GL/
GT

houston st 18:52 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:50 GMT--can't imagine her garden needing it with us being 20" over average right now..hope she's high & dry! gt.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 18:46 GMT June 30, 2004
Well interesting question she lives in Houston at the moment probably watering the garden I suppose. Now my other mother is around the same area yours is. ;-)

Minnesota Mark 18:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:42 GMT June 30, 2004 -- 105.4 is my guesstimate. Then up a bit then fall to 103 level before the Japanese have a total fit.

Rye, NY et 18:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:44 GMT June 30, 2004
Where's your "mother" now? I have 1962...TIA

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Islander turn the chatter box on.

Rye, NY et 18:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:42 GMT June 30, 2004

Nice call on your weekly low.........
GL/GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well as I feared this is looking like more of the tight range for eur/usd that has been with us for a couple of weeks. We shall see what the rest of the week can hold for this pair.

st. pete islander 18:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
So, Sir Alan did as expected ..... and he didn't surprise or scare anyone. Of course, he was a couple minutes late with the announcement .... his sense of humor showing perhaps?

USA Biscuit Boy 18:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Cheers for that link :)

I take it those defending 107 usd/jpy last time will not be there this time......bring on 106.

Van jv 18:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
With underlying inflation STILL expected to be relatively low,..........
still till when?

quito_valdez at yahoo 18:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Welllllll, just got back from lunch, Wednesday is garbage day on my street and my charts look like you guys were visited by the "sanitation specialists" as well. Net result..nada. I guess it's gin 'n tonic time for the rest of the day. Ahhhhhhhh

Van jv 18:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
"The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability"

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Andras I agree with your statement tough to hang on with a tight stop better to let the dust settle as you say. There is a considered pull back for eur/usd to 1.2130-40 and 1.2110-20. The 1.2200-10 is so far holding so I can imagine it will be tough for the bulls to get through the 1.2230-40 IMHO. GL GT

BB try bloomberg.com you will find the statement there.

SPb Mike 18:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 18:32 //

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040630/default.htm

Global-View GVI 18:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GVI 18:22 GMT June 30, 2004
FOMC Statement:

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions have improved. Although incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated, a portion of the increase in recent months appears to have been due to transitory factors.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.

Haifa ac 18:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
That is NOT an auspicious close for the euro. IT is closing the quarter and the semi annual down. That means we are into 3-6 months of choppiness-- trading range. Good luck to all short term traders.

London e 18:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ouch. Thats the last time I trade a news announcement. lol

chicago cal 18:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
yea, it's nail bitting time for port. fans

Calabash TarHeel 18:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, seems Greenie got what he wanted, .25 and positive response from the Dow.
All"s well that ends well
gl,gt

Chicago YM 18:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
http://www.federalreserve.gov

USA Biscuit Boy 18:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have a link to the statement they could post? TIA

ICT ML 18:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
well that was fun while it lasted....stopped out on the gbp that filled and cancelled the euro order. Those orders were there to take advantage of any surprise Greenie might have thrown at us......nothing doing this time.

Pecs Andras 18:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I do not think it is worth entering any position now with tights stops until the dust settles. This wipsawing must be killing some guys out there.
Better watch soccer myself too -:)

perrie como 18:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
fed sees dollar to tumble against yen tryng to offset against euro

Sydney Alimin 18:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LOL so much for fed's rate hike...back to normal trading till next rate hike
it's soccer time guys... see you all tomorrow

Dallas GEP 18:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out on gbp shorts.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Non-event....with long weekend for US quiet rest of week as well.

Pecs Andras 18:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
25 base points!

rom nick 18:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FED RAISES INTEREST RATES BY QUARTER POINT TO 1.25%

Minnesota Mark 18:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
2:18 Fed raises interest rates by quarter point to 1.25%
2:18 Fed sees inflation, growth risks balanced

Rye, NY et 18:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
25;"measured pace"

Gothenburg XON 18:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
0.25 ....

ny amc 18:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FOMC: 25 BP tightening to 1.25% FF target, keeps "measured" in 12-0 vote but says "will respond to changes in econ prospects as needed." - Growth risks and Inflation risks: up-down "roughly equal." Expects inflation to be "relatively low" and says "a portion of" price hikes in recent mos "appears to have been due to transitory factors." Output still expands "at a solid pace." - Primary DR +25 BPs to 2.25%, on requests from all 12 dists.

ICT ML 18:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
well haven't done this in awhile, but straddled the decision, entries for long gbp and short euro with 10 pip stops and 50 pip TP limits.....see how it goes

Sydney Alimin 18:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
where is it?

Rye, NY et 18:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Anybody have EBS high offer on EUR for today?TIA

rom nick 18:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
now

Dallas GEP 18:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well so much for that theory STOP @ 1.8175 now on GBP shorts

Pecs Andras 18:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi everybody
What time is the rate decision due?

Rye, NY et 18:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 16:06 GMT June 29, 2004
Short EUR/USD 1.2122;cut 1.2185;take 1.1995
stopped 1.2185

USA Biscuit Boy 18:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Move stops to B/E....eur/usd 1.2066, gbp/usd 1.8034, usd/chf 1.2623

Bruxville Jim 18:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, the Day of Judgement has come!!:)

Wash Alan Greenspan 18:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
can someone post the result of the meeting asap please.
I left my notes at home and I don't have the decision.

houston st 18:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel--like I said yesterday, here in Houston they are saying "chance of rain through October" and I don't believe they are kidding. No relief in site for the moment. Soggy fireworks in the forecast as well. Told my daughter in L.A. to get the spare room ready just in case. take care.

Minnesota Mark 18:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Night before Christmas?? More like Trick or Treat I think.

Calabash TarHeel 18:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander
Hello Islander, wondering where you were. My condo is on the 3rd floor, so that should hold as long as the roof holds. Besides, my cat wants no part of a boat. She likes hurricanes, sits at the deck door and watches things go flying by. Tropics nice and calm so far. Trust you and yours are doing well.
Oh well, almost time to watch and wonder.
Take Care.

houston st 18:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 18:00 GMT--nice job..you played it right because that usd/jpy hasn't really looked back since then..continued success to you.

LAX-LGB SNP 18:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
am i the only one who feels this is like the night before Xmas ? gonna go watch some telly now

st. pete islander 17:49 GMT June 30, 2004
i hope GEP & TarHeel swat the flies off though

Minnesota Mark 18:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st 17:56 GMT June 30, 2004 -- Closed out the Yen option for a nice triple.. still holding onto the cable. Just threw some of the profit into another Aug Yen call.. Thanks for asking. :)

LAX-LGB SNP 17:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ya guys are lucky to be blessed with warm tropical rain
even a dog pees harder than the rainfall in so. Cali and even that leads to 20-30 car pileups on the fwys

Jim - LAX/LGB are codes for airports closest to me

Dallas GEP 17:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
time stamp:

EURO 1.2161 and GBP 1.8140

houston st 17:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 17:53 GMT--greetings..how'd you fare on your options? good trades.

Dallas GEP 17:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OK right about NOW and for the next fifteen minutes we should start to see some dollar short possies square out.

Minnesota Mark 17:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I've found Marketwatch.com to be very fast on all announcements.

Gold Coast martin 17:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BISCUIT BOY..good simplified post on the position of the euro and aud...you have a clear vision which will guide you...g/t

ny amc 17:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Where is the best place to hear what he says as fast as possible?

st. pete islander 17:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP & TarHeel .... Actually, I think both of you guys should start building a boat and collecting some animals if the rain keeps up!

USA Biscuit Boy 17:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Alimin if the Fed hikes 50bp or Greenspan removes the word "measured" from his speech the dollar will be bought I guarantee!

Bruxville Jim 17:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 17:44 GMT // SNP, what does LAX-LGP mean?

LAX-LGB SNP 17:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LA tg 17:13 GMT June 30, 2004
sounds good - hope ya like the June gloom ;-)
SNP - In LA, I'll call you later.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:27 GMT June 30, 2004
thanks - lets see what havoc the FOMC wreaks ;-)

ny amc 17:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
US data: Economist Bill Sharp of JPM says "The MarketNews International (MNS) "Reality Check" story published on Wednesday, June 30th suggests a below consensus outcome (+240K) for June payrolls, as well as low odds of an above 300K reading. The tone of the headline was less positive than in recent months, and these Reality Check stories, which are based on anecdotal information collected from recruiting firms, have a very good track record in providing useful signals for the upcoming employment reports (correctly predicting the direction of payroll outcome relative to consensus median in 61 of prior 85 months (72%), and in 6 of the last 7 Junes)." MNI

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 17:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/#calendars

let read Bombspan' s speech first )

Sydney Alimin 17:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
somehow i just got the feeling that usd will be sold no matter what the decision later....i hope i am wrong

Dallas GEP 17:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well Tarheel, it has been a very wet year. The developers around here think you can take away all the ground areas up lay payment down and THEN they wonder why they have a drainage problem. IDIOTS!!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 17:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SNP for eur/usd it is pretty simple....if 1.2080 holds we can explore the upper range at 1.23+ and if broken we can think about 1.26 to come. If 1.2080 breaks then there is 1.1960 and a long term trendline to get thru before another test of 1.1780.

For cable as long as 1.8000 holds plenty of upside to it as well. Aussie same boat if 0.6830/40 holds we can start probing above the 0.70 level again. All IMO. GL and GT.

Calabash TarHeel 17:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Thanks Gep, my little homegrown system says $/cad would be oretty well o/s around there, today anyway.
Think you're getting right fair amount of rain too. Hope it abates for you guys soon.
Take Care

Dallas GEP 17:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OK 1.8144 short on GBP 1.8165 stop

GVI john 17:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

GVI Biweekly Professional Dealer Sentiment Survey Results.

CLICK HERE

Interesting results. More of a consensus (bearish dollar) than two weeks ago.
Thanks to all who participated.

Belgrade Knez 17:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 17:15 GMT June 30, 2004

FOMC announcement at 18:15 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 17:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Monthly high/low = 402.6/383.1 (on closing basis) and the mid-point reference is 392.85.

leeds jb 17:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
just heard about an hour to go before rate announcement

melbourne farmacia 17:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 16:53 GMT June 30, 2004
I've closed out gbp at this stage, but note 1.8175 as 50 retracement level 1.8338 - 1.8011 etc.. fair target for intraday players. Will see how things pan out when i wake up thursday morning. GT & Good night.

LA tg 17:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SNP - In LA, I'll call you later.

LAX-LGB SNP 17:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
with ref to 06:21 GMT June 30, 2004 - never came close to being filled

but filled on 20:51 GMT June 29, 2004 so a lot greener but doubtful about AUD, GBP & CAD, also EUR long fate now

any views/suggestions ?

Calabash TarHeel 17:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st
Hello st. Watching the weather channel, the rain doesn't seem to be giving Tx much of a break. It has been raining here off and on for the past two days, We really need it tho, rainfall level several inches below normal. With hurricane season only about 6 weeks away, won't take long for the rainfall to catch up. So if you want to travel to the east coast, suggest you do it before mid Aug, otherwise you might get the same weather here.
I've been flat since early this am, trying to out guess the market on days like this has proven costly in days gone by, so no more.
Hope all is good with you, maybe you will get dried out soon.
Take Care

leeds jb 17:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
how long do we wait for this rate hike. any ideas.

Dallas GEP 17:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, the CAD WOULD be good buy @ 1.3320 with 1.3290 stop,

houston st 16:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 16:54 GMT--since our last conversation it's done nothing but rain here..what's your weather like for the next few days? I may have travel to a dryer locale..you up to anything or waiting for Big AL to do his thing? gl/gt.

Chicago YM 16:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
it can be done.

Bruxville Jim 16:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:43 GMT // Fair point. With 1:100 leverage you will be forced out of the game in no time. it doesn't pay to hope you'll be super-truper lucky and enter the market at the ideal price - don't forget normal market volatility.

Calabash TarHeel 16:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hello GEP. Any thoughts about longing $/cad around 1.3320 if it get down to that region?
Tia, gl,gt

QC WC 16:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 07:21 GMT June 30, 2004
Great call on GBP, what's your target this round mate?

Goes (NL) B747 16:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
watch CHF/JPY, was already +/- 2.5% up for the day.

taking long JPY positions at current levels will pay great for sure during the next 60-90 days.
but, it is really for deep pockets - 1:100 leverage on JPY is craziness (actually on any CCY).


GT

Bruxville Jim 16:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
cad/jpy - a sure short on a repeated approach to 81.90 today - double bottom completed + downtrendline at 81.90. 80.00 should be retested very soon.

Goes (NL) B747 16:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 16:33 GMT June 30, 2004
Thank you for the idea

I beleive that shorting GBP/JPY withj aveage price between 198-200 is right, in case needed I just will stand aside and will watch my money doing nothing until it will go below 194/-
Frankly, I am the type who will wait even months to prove the point...JPY/GBP are stimulating guts with me (or stupidity).

Thank again for the idea!!!

GT

houston st 16:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:32 GMT -- good luck w/ that pair..I posted a similar trade earlier today, just like you, and the mkt had moved down in the 7 minutes it took me to get around posting it..still not sure why he got so angry but I noticed that his usd/jpy short was already under water so perhaps that explains it..it seems like the yen is getting deeply oversold, so maybe we'll see different tune after the FOMC announcement..if 25bps then it really all depends on how tough they want to be with future application of increases..good trades.

melbourne farmacia 16:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:09 GMT June 30, 2004
I've spent many a time trying to trade Gbp/Jpy with lots of red results... then one day i started following the flow... now more green than red. That said, just wait for the next sell signal.. maybe thursday & maybe a 200 pip ride.. GT

Goes (NL) B747 16:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BP/JPY:
short @ 198.53
s/l @ 199.30


GT

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well guys I wish I could be more helpful here but I am here just waiting on the FED decision like the rest of you. I have several times aLMOST entered E/Y , usd/jpy and gbp/jpy shorts but they are JUST now slowing in their ascent!!!

Goes (NL) B747 16:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Jim: I hope so, I really hope make some pips before raising the white flag.

Alimin: I lost two times more (today alone!) than I did the last three days, but I hope to study this cross before I get dried off the study funds :)
btw, I lost but I love it as greed did not made me run away with 60pips on very (very, very) serious amount (in my view).


GT

Van jv 16:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:18
"..Usd/Jpy may go down a bit more short-term..But again,do not expect it will stay below 110 that long..They have RMB,not USD, to worry about.."
Seems relevant to the discussion...can bc or anybody explain??

LA newfx 16:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP:
what is your prediction after fmoc out? for gbp/usd

UAE Oil man 16:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT June 30, 2004

I got 109.71 has the next wall (of worry)..

QC WC 16:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Jim, Usd/yen may fall after FOMC or Tankan but bet its a good opportunity to go long.

Sydney Alimin 16:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
B747: are you moving now into trading gbp/jpy? is euro too 'boring'? :) go holland!

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well be careful guys about top picking these JPY pairs because it is not known really when they could top because SOMEONE is probably driving them long. 133.60 WOULD be good level for e/y short anf that 198.40 level has already been breeched. 109.40 also was supposedly good resistance but we are beyond that as well.

Bruxville Jim 16:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:15 GMT // $yen is going up to have a good room to fall after fomc&tankan;)

ny amc 16:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
US data: Economist Brian Wesbury of GKST says "Many will attempt to use the declines in this (Chi-PM) report as an indicator that the manufacturing rebound is coming to an end. We do not agree. Even with their June contractions, all components still signal expansion in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, we view June's result as an aberration not the beginning of a new trend. We expect the index to climb towards its 6-month moving average of 62.6 in the months ahead." MNI

Goes (NL) B747 16:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
JPY: do last day of financial QTR have to do with the bloodbath that JPY went (still going) through today?


GT

HK Kevin 16:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/JPY got stop out too and give back 2/3 of my profit from long USD/JPY. Good night and see you all tomorrow.

Goes (NL) B747 16:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY: kicked out @ 198.40

GT

perrie como 16:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
1/4 will be good nite market...bibi

Chambery FR JFB 16:05 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:18 GMT June 30, 2004
Hi Jim, sorry for late reply, was in the pool :-)
My system is mainly based on 30' timeframe, but the duration of the trades is somewhere between a few hours and a few days (to give you an idea, this one is the 78th trade YTD), and the average pips/trade is 69 (all inclusive : + & -).
Happy trades :-)

Bruxville Jim 15:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:46 GMT // What's your view on AUD/NZD? Are we bottoming out together with EUR/CHf?

Goes (NL) B747 15:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
JPY: trading this CCY is a Kamikaza that leading to Harakiri, only now when dark green is around GBP/JPY (but, bloody red for me) I realize that bottom line for Kamikaza and Harakiri is death :)

CHF/JPY: may someone provide a suggestion about entring a short on this pair?

GT

Van jv 15:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 15:10....""" FOMC, the direction of $ for today is down""", not so for JPY, which makes it all more??

hk ab lazy 15:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I just need some magic on my euraud short and now, I will go for sleeping....
see ya all later before FOMC and Portugal VS Holand.

hk ab lazy 15:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, fwiw, I have some bullets reserved for the 110.00 touch and go strategy.

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:27 GMT June 30, that's fx trade. I can't do anything. Stop order for short USD/JPY also at risk.

hk ab lazy 15:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, News said 300K
I think 100-200K.

Belgrade Knez 15:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez at yahoo 15:26 GMT June 30, 2004
2:15 PM NY time = 0015 /GMT? right or wrong?

14:15 NY time = 18:15 GMT

clonakilty glenn 15:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
18:15 gmt

hk revdax 15:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:12 //How many are expected to show up in the demo tomorrow?

USA Biscuit Boy 15:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Jim I don't trade cableyen but if I did I would sell it near 200.

hk ab lazy 15:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, operators are all in action today.
That big contracting triangle in weekly is getting squeezed. Will be one way or the other...
Should tell v. soon.

quito_valdez at yahoo 15:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
2:15 PM NY time = 0015 /GMT? right or wrong?

USA Biscuit Boy 15:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
That's me short dollaryen at 109.36....gl and gt.

nyc jk 15:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:21 GMT June 30, 2004
thanks OMIL, gl to you!

Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
YEN may be being SOLD across the board in preparation for the Tankan report 23:50 GMT in an effort to position market for some YEN BUYING later.

UAE Oil man 15:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Doesn't look good for the euro just now..unless top retaken, it's going to fall back towards 1.20xx in a few ..

Bruxville Jim 15:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
B Boy, what about CableYen?

Bruxville Jim 15:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I mean, are you selling for 100 pips or 10 pips?

USA Biscuit Boy 15:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dollaryen at nice sell levels IMO for 106's.

HK Kevin 15:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
OH! short EUR/JPY postion stop out.

Bruxville Jim 15:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 15:17 GMT // Could you mention the time frame of your system?

Chambery FR JFB 15:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
G'afternoon :-)
Fwiw, just got a sell signal for eurusd @1.2164 traded.
Happy trades :-)

nyc jk 15:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
2.15 pm ny time cal we get the result

quito_valdez at yahoo 15:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Just an interesting thought while we're all waiting, a lot of top money men speculated just a month (or so) ago the Fed won't raise nuthin' til after the election. Wouldn't it be a hoot if they were right? The post below mentioning "0" rate hike = 1.24 (eur/usd) would be reality. Remember, inflation is a calculation based on a LOT of parameters, sometimes in conflict, and variables...depends on who/what calculates it as to what you get.

chicago cal 15:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
what time is the FOMC meeting?

tia

hk ab lazy 15:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, in a nut shell, unless a 0.5 suddenly comes, otherwise, see all of you above or near 1.22 tomorrow morning?

btw, just a quick qns, will you demon tomorrow? I won't.

hk revdax 15:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy //REgardless of whatever may come out of FOMC, the direction of $ for today is down. The surprises from the meeting could alter the magnitude of the fall but not the direction.

hk ab lazy 15:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
day trade money now liquidating before the FOMC and will invade again once a "0.25" is flashing.

Guess the close will be around 1.22 if they come in again WITH a "0.25".

"0" would be equivalent to "1.24" but next move will become mroe and more interesting.

Mtl JP 15:05 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
revdax 15:00 / sorry revdax, I can not tell you when you have enough candy in your pocket.. :-(

quito_valdez at yahoo 15:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
For those new to this forum, click at right: "Analysis & News" & then on "GV Research" for Global View TODAY's and past free analyses on c'ncy pairs.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 15:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems final correction before FOMC. EUR ----> to 2135 IMO

hk revdax 15:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:55 //No, it does NOT depend on the entry level. When it turns, it does so regardless of various entry levels.

HK [email protected] 14:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Just a feeling...that many are just waiting to take the counter-trend of the last move, means buy $$$.

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
revdax 14:45 / how much pleasure you can absorb is a personal thing. I suppose it may depend from which number you are short...

HK [email protected] 14:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Maybe at 1.3511

hk revdax 14:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:50//Really? OK..I could short it again now but where would you place the stop?

Helsinki iw 14:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
If Bush manages to pull off a Chinese reval and the Homeland Investment Act as election stunts, the USD index will be much lower, and so will EUR/USD. Not to mention EUR/JPY.
Unfortunatly very difficult event to trade.

hk revdax 14:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Jim//Thanks. I am already out. Goodnite.

HK [email protected] 14:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:39 GMT June 30, 2004

How about.....USD/CAD1.3333

hk ab lazy 14:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
For eur/gbp the last ultimate top .72xx to the end of the first leg down is 33 weeks. We are now just 28 weeks from there. So, I think there're some more weeks to go....

hk ab lazy 14:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
iw// same thought as US doesn't need to export much to Europe and Jap.

Bruxville Jim 14:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:39 GMT // 1.3390/95 retest is on the cards. 61.8% retracement of 1.3-1.4, a verrry important level. Asian buyer at 1.3390.

hk revdax 14:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP//Not good enough, JP. I want to know where I could tp on my shorts.

Mtl JP 14:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
dlrcad needs close above 1.3385 today else..

hk revdax 14:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone would venture to forecast the downside target of $/CAD of today? TIA

ny amc 14:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: RES 4: $1.2330 Top of daily Bollinger band RES 3: $1.2240 Weak trendline from 18 Feb RES 2: $1.2230 Daily high 28 June RES 1: $1.2195 76.4% of $1.2070 to $1.2230 & Daily high 29 June CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2180 SUP 1: $1.2145 38.2% of $1.2195 to $1.2070 SUP 2: $1.2070 Hourly low SUP 3: $1.2037 Support line from 14 May COMMENTARY: The euro risks a pullback now following failure around $1.2190/95 level, which is the 76.4% retracement of the decline from Monday's move. The hourly studies are approaching overbought levels, but have yet to cross bearishly, which suggests pullback has further to extend towards $1.2145 and potentially $1.2130, which is the 50.0% of today's move. 06/30 10:21

Helsinki iw 14:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
My two cents on the FOMC: Personally see that, as so often is the case, the comments from Sir Alan are what or wont move the market. 25bps are factored in and a very likely outcome, but Greenspan may try to temper down the expectations of the speed of the coming hikes in his statement, which could be negative for the dollar. If he strongly underlines price stability, that will be seen as aggressive and very likely lend support to the USD. The US may need a weaker dollar, but looking at the magnitude of trade flows, they need it with Asia, Europe doesn´t matter.

bahrain gd 14:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
omil,miami,thanks again.

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:15 GMT June 30, 2004
Logically (that tupid word again) the .25% has been priced in and it, as you said, is a wimpish hike (I think to appease EZ). More hikes would have to follow to get any effect on inflation up to 2.0-2.5% prime rate. I think other CBs may copycat this hike too making relatively null any Fed hike as far as comparitive worth of US paper and c'ncy price relationships go.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Great trade and good move to bag some at this time JK congratulations.

Gold Coast martin 14:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
QUITO....if you take the cash your guru status will simply ensure that you live to fight another day...

Hong Kong Qindex 14:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The following is still. A projected resistant point is positioning at 396.


Spot Gold : A Strong Pullback is Imminent
Saturday June 19, 2004 - 08:17:07 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html

Spot Gold (22-Day Cycle) : The pattern of my 22-day cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to trade between 383.5 - 396 initially next week. The distribution profile of my probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 358.6 - 396. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 383.5. A projected barrier is located at 371.1 - 377.3.

... 352.5 // 358.6 - 364.9 - 371.1 // 377.3 - 383.5 - 389.8 - 396 // 402.2 - 408.4...

Nottingham 14:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
JIM>>>payrolls

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
bahrain gd 14:13 GMT June 30, 2004
As I said in my earlier comment my greatest fear is that after all is said and done we will still be in a tight range for eur/usd. Next resistance is 1.2200-10, 2230-40 and 2250-60 but this can still be a bull trap as we have experienced on this pair many times these past few weeks around this level. There is talk of the 1.2235 option barrier expiring next week and they have defended that level well so far. Many things have to fall in the right place between today and the end of the week for this eur/usd to start moving in some kind of direction IMHO. GL GT

nyc jk 14:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
just closed rest of EUR long @ 77, be back for FOMC, gl!

USA Biscuit Boy 14:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez one idea may be to take half profit now....move stop to break-even......and see if we land on red or black after the kneejerk reaction and real direction is established.

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Tks Goldcoast amigo...was thinking on that same line. Take it and run! With glory and 60 cents I can buy a cup of coffee. When I get guru status, do I continuously polish my nails on my lapel and get my free secret decoder ring and bumper decal too?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil : The following is still valid. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the super magnet at 37.45

Crude-Oil : Pulling Back to 37.45
Wednesday June 2, 2004 - 04:41:21 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html


Crude Oil (3-Month Projection) : The critical point of my 3-month projection profile is located at 42.19. The pattern of the probability chart suggests that the market has a tendency to trade between 39.03 - 45.35. The key quantized level is positioning at 37.45. The lower barrier is expected at 32.71 // 34.29. The upper barrier is located at 46.93 // 48.51. If the market retreats and trades below the key quantized level at 37.45, crude-oil has a good potential to penetrate through the lower barrier at 32.71 and the market will head for 29.55. In the mean time the market is going to vibrate around the critical point at 42.19 with an expected magnitude of 40.61 - 43.77.


... 29.55* ... 32.71* // 34.29 - 35.87* - (37.45) - 39.03* - 40.61 - 42.19* - 43.77 - 45.35* - 46.93 // 48.51* ...

HK [email protected] 14:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
One has to remember that one point of view is that 0.25 rate hike, may be too little to tame the present wild inflation, which means bearish news for the $$$. I wonder if that is what the market tries to factor now by the late price move.

Bruxville Jim 14:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 14:09 GMT // PMI?

Gold Coast martin 14:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
QUITO...Take the cash and forget about the glory....if you cash out now before greenspan. ...that decision will make you a 'GURU"...g/t

bahrain gd 14:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
omil,miyami:thanks for your asusual correct direction, now EUR/USd has crossed the resistence level of 1.2175, is there any chance for 1.2220 next?

Stockholm za 14:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin >> I think you must have mis-understand my post!!..?
Bla. bl.a. . blaaa….. The Q is that figure… the one that is kept secret…
Q. Are we going to agree to that # and if so what is the time span of the delivery..?
Q. Why that # ? It is the one required to Establish true equilibrium both domestic & international…
Until then, we will only have the sling shot effect..
Noted- eg: - an upward shift of fair value of the €/$
Re - "Our understanding of the nature of markets is based on the hypothesis that people’s expectations adjust slowly and manifest themselves in long-term price trends."
Happy trades….. fwiw....

hk ab lazy 14:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
With Chicago PMI plunge like this and eur still stay below 1.22, you can see most people are still reluctant to do anythign bold.

Nottingham 14:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
spotforex ny...I have read a report suggesting that there is particular risk of disappointment this time around...gl gt

Gen dk 14:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Chi PMI: 56.4 vs. 68 in May
Employment 53.6 vs. 54.8 in May
Prices Paid 84.5 vs. 80.0 in May

From GVI Forum

quito_valdez at yahoo 14:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy// I like the way you put that! I'm shickled titless. My euro/usd long that got laughed at yesterday 1.2130 is up60 pips to 1.2190...about time I "guru'd meself". Now, question is, to cash in now or wait for Bombspan to speak?(..and I was having such a good time playing Guru too..shucks.)

UAE Oil man 14:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well there's a nice trendline top at 6740(or so)..so with a bit of luck it holds...and see us back towards 65xx..

Spotforex NY 14:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
from GVI

GVI Jay 14:03 GMT June 30, 2004
Chi PMI: 56.4 vs. 68 in May
Employment 53.6 vs. 54.8 in May
Prices Paid 84.5 vs. 80.0 in May

Kaunas 14:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone got the number?

HK Kevin 14:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:58 GMT, why not 131.50 first?

Gen dk 14:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

MDS PVR 14:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
London AKA., thks . Let's see how the apparently divergent Euro & CHF counts vis a vis the $ resolve. Thks .

USA Biscuit Boy 13:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
That's it Oil Man who gets to pretend they know something others don't this time......dollar bulls or bears? I have to say I am feeling very lucky today....even my usd/chf trade is in the money :)

Spotforex NY 13:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Purchasing report due out in afew minutes....yesterday there were rumors of a strong payroll report due out on Fri.....maybe this will bring back that talk.....

QC WC 13:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems Euro/yen target this round is around 134.

QC WC 13:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Seems Euro/yen target this round is around 134.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:50 GMT June 30, 2004
After all is said and done we will still be in this bloody range for eur/usd that is my greatest fear LOL. GL GT

HK Kevin 13:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/JPY at 132.59. Kept short USD/JPY from 109 earlier.

Gold Coast martin 13:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE..OIL...very true....perhaps we should be factoring in fridays employment figure into out weekly positions from now..g/t

Bruxville Jim 13:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:53 GMT // What might be the target for these shorts?

nyc jk 13:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks Farmacia, hehe yeah JB would have gotten after me otherwise ! (just joking). filled on that part of it, like you say just see how the rest goes and wait for FOMC. cheers

UAE Oil man 13:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur-GBP offers good short opportunities here between 6710-35.
GL.

UAE Oil man 13:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well let's hope this is not a non-event and that market just continues ranging back and forth..up down..take your pick Mr euro..some guys will get a new guru status..others will be sent to oblivion and hated/forgotten until their next good call...and the forum continues..LoL.

Gen dk 13:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London AKA 13:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
MDS: i think the decline is chf is impulsive. currently doing fourth wave of a decline from 1.3080. NOT from 1.32. i do not see an impulse in the decline from 1.32 to 1.27... however i do think that the decline from 1.3080 to 1.27 is wave one, then rise in 3 waves to 1.2910 is a 2, then fall to 1.2320 is a 3. currently doing a 4, as per my post about a week or two ago? this count is correct to me so long as we do not breach 1.27, which is the end of wave one... and looks like we failed to do so twice... which might actually mean that we are doing a 5???

HK [email protected] 13:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
If we assume that...

A) The US wants weaker $$$ for the time being.

B) That the weekly chart for Euro is fantastically bullish(cup and handle with a bullish flag ).

Whatever...Today is the time to strike for a weaker $$$. This is a view for the medium term players.

BUT THE RISK OF RETURN TO AROUND 1.18++ still exists without abandoning the Euro bullish view.
A BREAK ABOVE 1.2250 IS NEEDED to confirm a new bull move for the Euro. That from a simple point of view

hk ab lazy 13:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dlr/cad drops to celebrate the 0.1% GDP?
Maybe next move will follow Euroh brother into -ve region?

melbourne farmacia 13:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 12:37 GMT June 30, 2004
Sorry mate ..I was watching the tennis... 1.2175 done i see, nice trade ( and posted entry too.. hehe ).. 1.2180 is tech level for me, so like u say just run the rest IMO GT

Gold Coast martin 13:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
CHICAGO...thanks irish....when system says go hunting have to go hunting....same to you...

Chicago Irish 13:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good hunting Martin

Gold Coast martin 13:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
CHICAGO IRISH...stop loss for euro...12212....g/t

Gen dk 13:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney Alimin 13:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
cleaning up stops both direction and just before fed decision we all go back to the opening levels

HK Byron 13:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Cheers, EURUSD 1.2180 target reached. Closed longed from 2115. Hold 2080 long for 2200 or higher... or lucky enough to hold and see 1.25 :P

hk ab lazy 13:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Look at how eur/chf and eur/jpy are manipulated....

One way or the other?

Chicago Irish 13:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 13.17 gmt. Bold call....where's your stop loss on Euro?

MDS PVR 13:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LONDON AKA 13.05 .. Yes., both Cable & Euro structures look $ positive , but $/CHF decline from 1.32 looks impulsive thus far. What's your CHF count? thks

hk ab lazy 13:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Portugal VS Holland
ZORRO VS Martin...

Just kidding in a nervous light LOL.

Gen dk 13:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Goes (NL) B747 13:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 13:04 GMT: maybe shorting three of them will pay big term to you, GT

Gold Coast martin 13:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good opportunity for entry levels of euro at 12160 and aud 6930..may be last chance at these levels before the rate decision....the market sometimes does give us one last chance...we just have to recognise it...g/t...

London AKA 13:05 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
cable is correcting the fall from 1.8285 to 1.8010 (which i believe was a third wave of a five wave sequence that started at 1.8340... if this is correct, we should see a rise to about 1.8155 or 1.8180... then a fall in a fifth wave. this is invalidated above 1.8240...

Spotforex NY 13:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
My spin on the rate announcement is a LOSE-LOSE for US assets (stocks, bonds and Dollar).

EU ZORRO 13:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 12:55....

...Good luck for the match and for your positions... :)

London AKA 13:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
in the very near term, the rise from 107 in usd/jpy is rather corrective, suggestive of a double zig-zag, which is nearing completion... medium-term target at 105.50

Spotforex NY 13:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
A handful of names I highly respect on this forum have expressed a unch rate decision by the FED today.....

If that event unfold I will bow before these forex gods!!!!!

MADRID ppp 13:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I will be BOUGHT EurUsd if 25 bp increase

Vilnius george 12:00 GMT June 30, 2004
MADRID ppp 11:55 GMT
which one side do you stand for ,cos i don't wana hurt u ;-]

Goes (NL) B747 12:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 12:49 GMT June 30, 2004: maybe you are right as more people will watch the match than people who will trade :)

but, the impact of the FOMC on those who will watch the match will be much higher than the outcome of the match on those who follow the FOMC and will not watch the match :)

GT

Gen dk 12:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

EU ZORRO 12:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

...and the BIG EVENT is....??

...EURO 2004 semi-final....Portugal Vs Holand...!!!

...and I will be there, with my orders in place...

Good Luck and enjoy.....

San Diego bobl 12:41 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pre-FOMC decision and language...
IMHO a lot of position squaring is and will be going on into the release of announcement. This translates into a lot of conflict on charts and technical analysis views. I have seen this over and over again. What looks like a good trade set-up gets snapped off just like that.

Bottom line for me...I do not trust chart views short term from now until the announcement. Then we will probably see the usual starts and stops and slop before a directional trade unfolds. As tempting as some charts appear, I prefer to be flat and "miss opportunity" until the market digests the report.

I have learned not to feel "left-out" if we get an original good move that holds up, and I have to "pay up" later to get into the longer term picture. That is just how I feel going into FED rhetoric...talk about "double-talk"...lol...

Anyway, that's my 2-cents...good trading and best wishes.

nyc jk 12:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hi farmacia...will sell half at 1.2175 or if it ducks back under 50...rest was gonna try to hold out for 1.2210/20....what you reckon on it?

houston st 12:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
good day all..looks like I was stopped out on my gbp/jpy short overnight...another heartbreaking trade gone awry after showing promise early on..such is the world of fx..good luck to all today as we approach the Fed's decision (or non-decison, whatever the case may be).

Sydney Alimin 12:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
good entries BB, wish u the best luck
i had no luck today with my long gbp from last night :(

IST Sez 12:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
After the rate decision of FOMC
There could be a fake movement in the market and if the eur/usd down sharply buy it and sell eur if it go up swiftly IMVHO.
Take care and good luck to all u friends!!!

melbourne farmacia 12:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 11:33 GMT June 30, 2004
What's your euro target ? as we hit 618 fibo..

EU ZORRO 12:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello all....!!!!

.....forget FOMC decision....rates unch....!!!!

.....BIG EVENT for today is @ 18.45 GMT....!!!!

VENICE JW 12:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
if mr.pimco claims to be 100bp behind the curve, i think cuome may have a good point of staing put at zero and letting some further air out the dlr

USA Biscuit Boy 12:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Got my eur/usd and gbp/usd buy orders filled at 1.2066 and 1.8034 overnight. Lets see if they hold up after the Fed today.

perrie como 12:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
even 0 could also fit their needs holding bond and stock markets while letting the currency loose

Genoa nic 12:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
The statement was percieved as dovish, the Euro was bought on it and resold two days later because of strong labour numbers, FWIW. This time too labour numbers two days after FOMC, by chance….

perrie como 12:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
1/4 basically the fed will calm temporary markets and bring inflationary verification after elections, by year end....

MADRID ppp 12:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
What will hapen if FED increases 25 bp in eurusd???

Vilnius george 12:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
MADRID ppp 11:55 GMT
which one side do you stand for ,cos i don't wana hurt u ;-]

Genoa nic 11:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon all

Market is on 0.25 as a given, so some food for thought on wording. Here’ s previous statement

Release Date: May 4, 2004
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.
The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid rate and hiring appears to have picked up. Although incoming inflation data have moved somewhat higher, long-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained.
The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. Similarly, the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.

MADRID ppp 11:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FOMC will start 14:15 PM ET lets croos our fingers

MADRID ppp 11:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Will eurusd go up or down more than 100 pips if FED increase 25 basic point??? What if 50 b.p. increase

Sydney Alimin 11:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
everyone is talking about this bloody FOMC decision that makes life difficult, how about this let's take it aside and think clearly as if it is not there....:) i know i wish

KL KL 11:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I can give you Fomca decision now....25 basis points....with strong words on inflation check and measured move. So how would you trade the market given this insight?? Give me the long/short scenerio for audusd, eurusd, gbpusd, usdyen , $cad and $chf..........anybody??

NY Raider19 11:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FOMC Decision //// hk revdax, it came out 15 minutes ago. They lowered rates by 100 basis points.

nyc jk 11:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
18:15 gmt revdax

hk revdax 11:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone tell me when the FOMC or whatever decision will come out today? TIA

Sydney Alimin 11:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
@#[email protected]$! got stopped out this afternoon on gbp long and now it is going up? blah...no trade for me today...better get myself ready for some soccer action later...gl gt everyone

Plovdiv Gotin 11:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Za/What's your expectation?TIA.

Global-View Research 11:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Fed Knowns And Unknowns (FXA)

Borrowing from the US Secretary of Defense line of reasoning when it comes to the Fed there are knowns, known unknowns and just plain unknowns ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and statement.... See full update in our new research section by CLICK HERE

Gothenburg XON 11:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Just got back from lunch and saw my shorts on EUR/USD gone pants... :-(

Stockholm za 11:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.... Trade what IS. Not your expectation...
€/$ up on 54,2% of todays range..
Happy safe trades.....

Calabash TarHeel 10:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good luck to all today. Think it is a good day for me to be on the sideline.
Take Care

hk ab lazy 10:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, eur/jpy action is not over yet....distorting all techny.

hk ab lazy 10:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Oilman, if you don't mind want to know your view for tonight.

prague jv 10:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
trying short usd/jpy one more time . sold 108.88 stp 109.22

HK Byron 10:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Cheers, let's eye for next level 1.2180...
planning to close some position there... :P

Calabash TarHeel 10:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Out eur/jyp short 1.3240 at b/e

hk ab lazy 10:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gbp can't be lifted up with the strong GDP? too said, all are planned move.

HK Byron 10:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:15 GMT // thx for your info! always appreciate! :)

perrie como 10:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
there might be a sharp dollar strenght squeeze on int. rates next week ...take care

perrie como 10:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
good summer all
It seems this eur/usd is going to test again 1.2050 if starts to loose below 1.2120 into tonite nyc

Nottingham 10:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
re dollar bearish/bullish fwiw any post Fed moves will be a lot truer if majors don't stray too far from yesterday's IMM closing levels...gl gt

Gen dk 10:10 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Calabash TarHeel 09:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 09:51 GMT June 30, 2004
Thank you for your prompt reply. I shorted it at 1.3240, s/l over 1.3280 , t/p 1.3120 target. I try to work somewhere around a 3 to 1 r/r ratio. Doesn't always work out that way.
Anyways, thanks for your insight.
gl,gt

HK Kevin 09:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, revdax posted ealier that today is a dlr bearish day. He never made us disappointed.

HK Kevin 09:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 09:42 GMT, I am now try to work on 100-pips profit risking 30-50 pips stop for each trade. Re: EUR/JPY, 20-days ma arounf 132.60 is a good level to short with t/p around 131.00-132.20, s/l above 132.60. However, I now prefer to short USD/JPY around 109.15 with a very tight stop (20 pips) after looking at the charts

Nottingham 09:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I'd agree with you in that for usdjpy, there's a good chance of seeing sub 108.50 before Fed...gl gt

Gold Coast martin 09:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HAIFA..AC..agree if you are long term trading..if you are short to medium term you need to pinpoint within 25-30 pips short ,and 35-45 medium...market needs to breath in either direction....g.t

Goes (NL) B747 09:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Shalom ac,

I agree with your call regarding USD/JPY, but somehow I see at the moment 109.80 as the lowest it can go.

GT

HK Kevin 09:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, if I am not wrong, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY will re-visit 108 and 131 level by NY session.

Calabash TarHeel 09:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 09:21 GMT June 30, 2004
hk ab, USD/JPY above 110 is a different story. I prefer now to

(short EUR/JPY around 132.50)
Hello Kevin, wondering what your t/p target would be, if you don't mind.
Tia,gl,gt

Haifa ac 09:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 09:36 //Any one who tries to pinpoint market levels to 5 pips is doomed. You must give the market room to breath. Look at bc posts--he never talks in less than 200 pips.

HK Byron 09:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin // you are right! :)

Gold Coast martin 09:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
STOCKHOLM za....my sincerest apologies...good trades...

Goes (NL) B747 09:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:31 GMT June 30, 2004: I did place my short USD/JPY stop @ 110.25, does the 5pips looks critical to you?


GT

London AKA 09:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
patience most certainly... patience. jesse livemore (reminiscences of a stock operator): "'tis my sitting on my hands that made me most money"...

Gold Coast martin 09:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HK..byron...patience is the key...it is only range trading....the forthcoming data of the next 24-48 hours will take care of it...go and do something you enjoy for a few hours and comeback refreshed and re-focussed...

Haifa ac 09:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
$jpy--10930 is creek. Worth a sale here. Stop must be above 110 30.

ny amc 09:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone explain to me what Shanghai BC meant regarding China and "Dollar Peg" ?

Nottingham 09:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
all this talk of black boxes makes my head spin...mathematicians belong in classrooms...keep things simple and you can do well...gl gt

Stockholm za 09:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Martin NOT me !!
Look at :- Sofia NYK 08:15 GMT June 30, 2004

London 09:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2235 Barrier Expires A Week Today

HK Byron 09:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
still struggling at 2130 level...
anyone can help? :P

Gold Coast martin 09:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
STOCKHOLM..ZA....Martin has attempted such an amalgamation...it has not been purified...black box with timespan imperfections.... if you find the holy grail let me know.. g/t

HK Kevin 09:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, USD/JPY above 110 is a different story. I prefer now to short EUR/JPY around 132.50

Stockholm za 09:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 08:01 GMT June 30, 2004 >>>
ONLY if you can incorporate the fundamental & the human physiological aspect into the mathematical / MECHANICAL black box … Then it will be pure.
Like martin claimed he did……. lol

Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Goes (NL) B747 09:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY: looks like time to short

GT

Gothenburg XON 09:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more EUR/USD @ 1,2135, target 1,2070....

hk ab lazy 09:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, Apparently, yen crosses saving major is in action now. So, dlr/jpy will be pushed up high via all different yen crosses before coming down again.

GL and GT and see u all in NY.

NY Raider19 09:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Swiss KoF //// 0930 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab lazy 09:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, i prefer 110, if not stop sell.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone knows when Swiss KOF indicators will due?? TIA

HK Kevin 09:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Closed my long USD/JPY from 108.1X last night at 109.02. HK ab, you can short now.

sar jf 09:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow MX
they are placing your stop with another counterparty who is filling them 1-2 points from your level and you are then paying them 1-2 points each time because they do not wish to lose on your business or take risk when their profit is guaranteed each time - im sure you can get something elsewhere that suits your specific needs - gt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London 08:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Boosted by Lower-Than-Expected Q1 C/A Deficit

paris jb 08:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow MX

try r e f c o biger than f x c m , same technology but dunno if

they honor stop like f x c m

Moscow MX 08:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
paris jb//Thanks a lot, yes was talking about them, never had such problems before, always honored my stops until recently, perhaps my deal sizes exceeded their credit lines with banks :)), was thinking about f x c m but concerned about safety of deposited money, they are relatively new and regulation in the US is not as convincing as in Britain, never heard of any forex scums in UK (unlike the US).

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 08:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 07:45 GMT June 30, 2004

Martin..
I will take a [email protected] all ur posts..(this week)

For now i will Go Xalikdiki to enjoy the Sunn and the Sea..

GL and GT!
nk

Gen dk 08:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia NYK 08:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// You had received it (from [email protected]) and your answer was only" No idea" !!!

prague jv 08:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy stoped out 131.93 , start for today as usual :)

Calabash TarHeel 08:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 08:21 GMT June 30, 2004
a tip when choosing a broker...make sure that institution concerned is older than you are...gl gt

In my case, that rules out most.
gl,gy

HK Byron 08:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
1.2130~50 will be another level for us to struggle...
gl for all longer ;)

Las Vegas D 08:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gentlemen it has been a pleasure Time for a nap GL and GT

London AKA 08:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
yes, all good. current account deficit down, gdp yy revised up to 3.40 from 3.00

hk revdax 08:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 08:15 //I have not received any email from you.

HKG AR 08:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
is data out in UK

Nottingham 08:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
a tip when choosing a broker...make sure that institution concerned is older than you are...gl gt

Vancouver SMV 08:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone here using ASCTrend 3.0?

paris jb 08:19 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow MX 07:28 GMT

hi mate if c m c u talk about forget it, try f x c m they honor their stop u can always put this condition before opening acc

paris jb 08:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow MX 07:28 GMT

hi mate if c m c u talk about forget it, try f x c m they honor the stop whatever the market

prague jv 08:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
short usd/jpy 108.72 stop 109.07 target open

Sofia NYK 08:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// But I have certainly found it, friend!!! Honestly.I had found and another one, with the cash, you remember , I'd emailed you some weeks ago, and had proposed you to take a part in it,but you simply ignored me.

Stockholm za 08:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

It seams like, when that day comes, that the bakery stop bake bred. That you are going to starve..!!
>Prices reflect all relevant information. < …….fwiw.
Happy safe trades..

hk revdax 08:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 07:08 GMT //The world has been looking/searching for a purely MECHANICAL system. It has not found it yet.

hk ab lazy 08:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Positions update
short eur 1.2195, 1.2161
short nzd .6302
long cad 1.3450
short eur/gbp .6680
short eur/aud 1.7410, 1.7451, 1.7515

prague jv 07:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy short @ 131.58 stop 131.93

QC WC 07:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, with the Usd/yen well supported and the contis firmer seem Euro/Yen and GBP/Yen targeting the other direction?

prague jv 07:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy offering good sell opp. at the moment . just waiting for the right minut . gl target 130.50

sar jf 07:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
my impression is we have become very stop driven lately (last few months) one day initiation with little follow through then chase stops the nest day - sometimes easier to see than others - but gbp falling due to blair fake rumor in my mind and the other reasons yesterday was a good example after uk bank bght day before

Las Vegas D 07:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
TY Good Ol' Squawk Box Have been very Lucky with EUR in the past week gl/gt

MONACO OGA 07:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 30/06
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2090), 55 pips lower than yesterday opening. The market reacted strongly to best US consumer confidence index in 2 years (101,9 against 95 expected), A favourable employment market and lower oil prices are boosting US consumers optimism. EUR/USD stabilized around 1,2120 support before breaking lower to 1,2070 and closing the US session to 1,2080. Overnight the pair consolidated inside 1,2060-1,2105 ahead of much awaited FOMC rate decision later today. We favour some range trading for today (1,2025-1,2150) and predict a much anticipated 25 bp US rate hike. This announcement should be a non event as far as Forex is concerned.The big picture hasn't changed, we still believe the market will hover inside 1,1750-1,2350 for some time and no wonder why we currently stand right in the center of the range today.

Data out today:

UK GDP Q1 expected 0,6% 08.30 GMT
UK current account Q1 expected -7,3 Bio 08.30 GMT
Eurozone ind confidence June expected -5,0 09.00 GMT
Eurozone consumer confidence June expected -15,0 09.00 GMT
Eurozone business climate indicator June expected 100,5 09.00 GMT
US Chicag purchasing manager June expected 64,3 14.00 GMT
US FOMC rate decison expected +25bp 18.15 GMT

Gold lower at 392,50, together with WTI August at 35,54.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (108,70). The pair continued its recovery against JPY and tested once again 108,50 resistance while 108 proved a rather strong supportive level. Overnight we got another rather disappointing data with Construction Orders for May falling 4%, sending the pair to test 108,80. Next big data to monitor will be Friday's TANKAN corporate sentiment.Technically the pair now looks to recover from an intermediary bottom at 107. The 108-112 range we had been calling for a few days ago might actually have been a 107-112 range. Ideally with this string of disappointing Japanese data, we would like to see 110 very soon .
EUR/JPY currently 131.50, rather stable, we still favour the upsides with 132 equilibrium point and next resistance at 133,20. Support around 131 today.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8060), fell much faster than EUR/USD yesterday on a disappointing GFK consumer confidence data and on Mr KING's declaration at the house of lords that interest rates in the UK are likely to be less than elsewhere. Later a rumour emerged that prime minister BLAIR might be facing a non confidence vote in the house of commons and therefore forced to resign. This morning the pair dropped to 1,8010 (same supportive level than on mid June) before rebounding to current levels. 1,81-1,85 range has been containing the market since the end of May, today we need to widen the range to 1,80-1,85 but we believe playing the range is still a valid strategy. Support for the day at 1,8000 with resistance at 1,8250.
EUR/GBP (0,6700). The cross was affected by recent GBP weakness (high overnight of 0,6710). We remain neutral for the time being and expect to see 0.6650-80 again soon.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Gothenburg XON 07:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EUR/USD @ 1,2110, target 1,2070....

sar jf 07:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ab- usdyen obv bid ahead of tankan after number yesterday everything else done nothing- its not necessary to have posn everyday must conserve energy for the more active market and not hesitate at that time

ElectricSavant mb 07:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good trade Las Vegas, How did you know to get long at 120.74 on the EUR-USD.

Las Vegas D 07:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I was long EUR at 1.2074 dont think its done moving yet gl gt

HK Byron 07:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
HKG ARK 07:44 GMT June 30, 2004
IS IT GOOD TO LONG EUR AT THIS MOMENT 1.2103

2080 entry with s/l 2055 will be better... if lucky enough, we may see 1.25 before 1.17. fwiw

hk ab lazy 07:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
will the same old eur/jpy trick work again???
jf// what a day.

Moscow MX 07:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B.//Thanks a lot, I guess Jay is asleep at the moment, could you pls e-mail me: konkor at yahoo dot com

Gold Coast martin 07:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SALONIKO...just go back up to 4 months in the archives and read my views...

HKG ARK 07:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
IS IT GOOD TO LONG EUR AT THIS MOMENT 1.2103

nyc jk 07:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks vm, will talk to Jay in the mrng then, signing off for now gl.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Martin..

I agree with u..But in case u want to offer somthing to all here u could post ur short term ,med term or long term..opinion of urs..

To Say that he is good or he is not good is the most easy way ...to the view(and 88% say it after the fact)

Kali ti(x)i to u too!
nk

Dublin Flip 07:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
no probs mate. I hope I can help.
I look forward to speaking to you...

nyc jk 07:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
gotcha Flip, well a nice trip while it lasted then. I am planning on going there a little later in the summer, perhaps I can contact you through Jay to ask a couple connectivity questions if ok?

Sofia NYK 07:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
MX// Change the broker, there are plenty of them around.

hk ab lazy 07:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
entered short nzd .6302.

HK Byron 07:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
looks like real move is coming :)

U.K. J.B. 07:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moscow MX

It seems rather strange that they should move the goalposts with you. Stops are always a very delicate issue in volatile markets. I am very pleased with my 3 institutions if you ask Jay/John @ GVI i could pass you there details.

Dublin Flip 07:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
no unfortunately jk.
We would have stayed for longer (especially given the crap weather here currently) but we have an unavoidable clash of timetables. There must be something in the global view water -LOL
well ML if you are up YTD you must be doing something right. The market is always here for when you get back.

Gold Coast martin 07:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SALONIKO....short hot money,medium hot money and long hot money will always prevail within the apprepriate time frames...kali tihi....

Moscow MX 07:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello friends, need a piece of advice. I've been trading with my FX broker (London based, advertiser here) for more than three years now. Had no problems whatsoever, but in the last couple of months slippages on stop orders have become intolerable. Yesterday paid 4.5k only in slippage. That's too much I guess. I understand that it is summer, illiquid conditions, etc but when on a quiet market you get a 3 pip slippage on GBP 5mio position.... Had a chat with a dealer yesterday, he said "you should expect slippages on stop orders from now on". In this respect I wonder whether anyone else trading through them noticed this or they just don't want my business anymore. It all seems strange because this company was very reputable. I assumed that the bigger amounts I trade the more they earn. So should I stay or should I go? I realize that slippage is common among FX brokers but it all depends on how often it occurs.

ICT ML 07:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
well guys...see you before the stop runs in Ny time...time for a snooze for this fat cat

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Martin..

Right now the real hot money will work..if Euro fell to 1.10 and lower...

AND rememper ...
2 foot...a good Strategy...and Time..

Might u have to search and political forum for some posts of me about Euro overshoot 1.2888 and 1.03

nk

ICT ML 07:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Well Flip....I'm still here;->.....and I am up YTD a decent return...but nothing near like this time last year. Don't have the same focus......and it looks like my last trade just stopped at even AGAIN.........

nyc jk 07:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
well said, Flip. no more sunny Spain for you?

melbourne farmacia 07:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ML - if your a fan of B Bands ( i'm not ) note cable playing with lower band... hourly picture... time to buy..

Dublin Flip 07:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ML the thing about this business is sometimes in your trading life you can't win a one horse race you and yet at other times one can't help but trip over bundles of cash on the side of the road-LOL One thing is certain everything goes in cycles. The hardest part of being a successful trader is about keeping yourself alive (or sidelined if that's your style) when you lose money until things turn back around. Everyone loses money (except commentators) in this business. The ones who expect it will occur for periods and bounce back are the ones who keep working.
be lucky

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Its a mind system, spending many hours of the day painting..

Thats call it voodoo..LOL!

nk

Gold Coast martin 07:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
saloniko......nikolaki....the KEY right now rests more with fundamentals rather than technicals...time to upgrade euro view.....g/t

Vancouver SMV 07:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
what system is that ?

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 07:50 GMT May 26, 2004


$/CHF E/$ E/GP E/J

GBP/J $/J

1/12/87 1.2780 1.30 0.74 166 241 133

1/01/91 1.2465 1.39 0.72 186 258 137

1/09/92 1.2255 1.44 0.82 178 247 125

1/05/95 1.2445 1.34 0.84 112 137 87

1/10/95 1.12 1.32 0.83 133 160 102


2004 1.2140 1.2890 0.7080 1.3780 198 108

Good Morning..
Still the KEY is here i think....

nk

Sofia NYK 07:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML// With my new purely logical system I have already been beating the market and I'll do i in the future.

Moskow 07:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
the best intraday forex historical data is here

jkt diablo 07:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
1.8000 is the psychological support level for cable. Watch this level carefully and if you want to buy cable, try with tight stops only. Seling on rallies should be safer though.

nyc jk 07:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ml - I have learned it many times believe me! hang in there. I was just joking although it does seem that way at times here.

ICT ML 06:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
now now jk...I think this year I for one have demonstrated an astute ability to post LOSING trades here...HAHAHHA can't beat the market even close to all the time....a lesson we will all learn eventually ;-0

hk ab lazy 06:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
place first nz short .63

hk ab lazy 06:55 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SFX// This cable is carried "away" by eur/gbp.

nyc jk 06:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sfx - that can't be a real trade, nobody ever loses money here haha

Singapore Sfx 06:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ok - my trade

bot stg 1.8065 got stopped 1.8040 ... !!

Ldn Viewer 06:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:49 - and place a few trades that you will never know about ....

U.K. J.B. 06:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ldn viewer

just keep on viewing

Brisbane L 06:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex many thanks again

ICT ML 06:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pindi looser 06:44 GMT June 30, 2004

mate....session before critical data release....if we KNEW where it was headed I would NOT be asking other guys input ;->

but 1.7996 area looks like a possible target, so does 1.7975

nyc jk 06:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
good stuff ml, well looking like you may get a chance to get em back at 1.8000 ish (or better yet farmacia's 1.7996 !), maybe just trail it at b/e and try your luck!

Ldn Viewer 06:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:39 - My friend I think your comment is actually in reverse ... You hit your own nerve always waiting for others to make a call for you to trade on and when they dont you lose YOUR NERVE and scream and shout ... DOWN boy abd get back to your BUSY TRADING ...

As for others , Qindex has called it see GBPJPY and still plenty in that call ...

So JB hit the sell button ....

Gold Coast martin 06:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk...the 64 level entry of 3 days ago on the kiwi will make some people a lot of pips...g/t

ICT ML 06:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
well then, I cover at fig and sell break below if happens.....thanks Farmacia.

pindi looser 06:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 06:40 GMT June 30, 2004
ICT ML 06:32 GMT June 30, 2004
1.7996 seems to be the key based on voodoo theory.

pliz tell us in simple english where cable is heading ?
where to buy and where to sell?
tia

hk ab lazy 06:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
martin, was already on the aud south train, unfortunately, dropped off.
Lookingto load up the nzd short .63....

Hong Kong Qindex 06:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 06:31 GMT - AUD/USD : The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is likely to be challenged if 0.6808 fails to hold. The odds are good that we may see the weekly high already.

hk ab lazy 06:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
break of cable 1.7905 will violate Mckegg inverse shs pattern.
Prefer to buy lower at 1.7910-50 tight SAR.

ICT ML 06:41 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
yeah jk...sold some at 42 with stop 52 for kicks....don't know if i TP now it or put stop at even......

melbourne farmacia 06:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 06:32 GMT June 30, 2004
1.7996 seems to be the key based on voodoo theory.

Gold Coast martin 06:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
We should commence to see visible signs of the kiwi shedding its feathers in the next 1 hour...g/t

U.K. J.B. 06:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn viewer

Class did i hit a nerve. tried trading and realised you were c*rap

hk ab lazy 06:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Moment of truth, moment of lies.

nyc jk 06:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hey ml, sure looks heavy but leaning towards the false break option myself, at least in short term here. EUR, CHF, etc are holding in pretty well and really would need those to take out supports to confirm the move to me. I am not touching the GBP at the moment, but just gone long some EUR at 1.2077, will ditch it if breaks 1.2040/50 support, otherwise we are just at lower end of range now I think.......what you reckon on it?

Ldn Viewer 06:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:35 GMT - and to be frank , i would say I have had more positions in FX than you will ever dream of ..

Ldn Viewer 06:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:35 GMT - Your a joker .. BIG TRADER ... take your own advise and censored off

Sydney Alimin 06:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
i think cable and aud are in very bad shape right now, putting aside the fed's rate hike, if us data on friday are good again, well...bye bye to those two

U.K. J.B. 06:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Exactly you are a taker and probably never had a position in your life, so kindly keep your comment about pulling the trigger to yourself. Lead by example.

Plese do not reply i am busy trading..

that reply for ldn viewer

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
jkt diablo 06:23 GMT June 30, 2004

You are a winner already but you already know that!!
Congratulations on the new bundle of joy and god bless.

ICT ML 06:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
jk...what you think here...false break lower or the real deal...on gbp-usd

Ldn Viewer 06:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:22 GMT - Mate I dont have to post trades and as my handle shows I view and take in information and pass info on markets in general ... trades and positions are one's own book ... GL ...

Brisbane L 06:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex if your around on the Aud appreciate your short term e.g. this week on aud. feel the up and coming election here may be causing some negative flows

jkt diablo 06:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP - thanks a lot man! It's much appreciated.

Normandy Nick 06:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hi everyone,
long on sterling at 1.8032 , stop reverse 1.8015

nyc jk 06:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
lol Martin, you must have been down to the pub at lunch or something! gl

U.K. J.B. 06:28 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
oh i forgot to mention sold cable at 1.8098 while all that was going on...

only joking...

LA newfx 06:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone can tell where is gbp/usd targeting?
Thanks

Gold Coast martin 06:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC JK...i know you may think i am delirious but i AGREE with your last post ....P.S..Enjoyed last nite...must do it again soon...g/t

nyc jk 06:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sure J.B., will have to wait until Jay gets in later today, but I will send him a message, cheers.

houston st 06:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
calm down JB..I can't imagine you giving a hoot about me posting my trades..what's the real beef?

U.K. J.B. 06:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Enough said lets get back to trading

U.K. J.B. 06:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk

Thanks again i am glad you appreciate perhaps we should exchange e-mails addresses

London 06:25 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk correct.

LAX-LGB SNP 06:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Diablo
congrats and GL

U.K. J.B. 06:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I totally agree gold coast but as i have said many times before i am trying to keep this forum professional if you rather i didn't bother i will move away

nyc jk 06:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I think J.B. has a valid point. If someone is posting a trade here, in theory it is so others can consider it, discuss it, debate it, agree with it, disagree with it, etc. If the alleged trade is posted after it is already well in the money, it serves zero purpose except to show what a purported legend the author is. may as well just skip typing the trade details out and just type " Once again I am making money like the true fx trading god I am".

jkt diablo 06:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
How're you doing guys? I haven't been trading anything serious yet since last Friday. I'm still upset because I've lost some of my favorite fishes due to the ich outbreak in my tank last week. And my wife's going to give birth to my second son tomorrow so I better stay away from the platform for a while :-)

Anyway, I think cable and euro are looking very weak now and will test the lower key support levels soon. USD bulls are in control again. Selling on rallies should be profitable for today. GL & GT!

U.K. J.B. 06:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
What a surprise ldn viewer just checked your archive. You seem to make plenty of comments but no trades so i find it rather amusing you are asking me to pull the trigger

again i rest my case..

au revoir

Gold Coast martin 06:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GENTLEMEN...lets have some harmony today....please!....

Sydney Alimin 06:22 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
got stopped out on my gbp long last night....oh well..

LAX-LGB SNP 06:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
considering EURUSD longs ahead of 1.2030 with censored to pay if 1.1985 goes
also looking @ how GBPJPY performs ahead of 195.30 (since GBPCHF is breaking past weekly support of 2.2821) and EURJPY atop 130.75

no hurry to give back month's gains - might just stay away till next week :-) GL everyone

hk ab lazy 06:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
But the key is eur/jpy doesn't want to follow.....

U.K. J.B. 06:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
If you read the archive london viewer you would see that i do
dont waste my time

hk ab lazy 06:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
and chf queen.

Later a big spike will appear on dlr/cad north side.

hk ab lazy 06:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
seems the USD bears are using crosses to protect their King Eur at the moment.

Ldn Viewer 06:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:13 - Grow up and pull your own trigger ... mate

U.K. J.B. 06:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Bring back Harry Hindsight

London 06:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Virgin Mobile Plans Global Offering Of Existing Shares

U.K. J.B. 06:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I rest my case

houston st 06:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 06:01 GMT--sold between 5:45 - 6:00 gmt..missed selling higher actually..why does it matter to you? there is a 10 pip spread on my platform, so I wasn't 40 pips in profit when posted..I have no control how fast the market moves down before I can post my trades for you..I also sold some add'l @ 196.08 on the bounce..hope that doesn't put you in a dither as well..good trades.

U.K. J.B. 06:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Where was your sell at 196.32 ??????

U.K. J.B. 06:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st

Why do people do that post a trade when they are in profit of 40 pips when the so called trade i e open trade was not recorded in the first place

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GM ALL
EURUSD Buy 1.2250 1.2078
USDJPY Sell 108.8954 106.5026
GBPUSD 1.8364 1.8059
USDCHF Buy 1.2652 1.2410
EURCHF Buy 1.5314 1.5172
AUDUSD Buy 0.7091 0.6882
USDCAD Sell 1.3531 1.3331
NZDUSD Buy 0.6468 0.6288
EURGBP Buy 0.6717 0.6637
EURJPY Sell 132.3168 129.7271
GBPJPY Sell 198.3861 193.9331
CHFJPY Sell 86.6971 85.1217
GBPCHF Buy 2.2976 2.2667
EURAUD Sell 1.7597 1.7215
EURCAD Sell 1.6453 1.6223
AUDCAD 0.9493 0.9277
AUDJPY Buy 76.0400 74.4465

houston st 05:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sold gbp/jpy @ 196.32, cut @ 196.72, take @ 195.00..time to put on autopilot and take a snooze..nite all.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 05:49 GMT - You are welcome.

U.K. J.B. 05:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Sold dolls/yen 108.61 tar 107.60 stop 109.10 gl

Ldn Viewer 05:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:44 - Appreciate the post and interesting ... to me USDJPY would be the driver of these cross pairs GBPJPY and EURJPY ... so with USDJPY 105.00 we have EURUSD 1.2305 and GBPUSD 1.8210 odd ...
RR trade the GBPJPY call ... again ... IMVHO

Hong Kong Qindex 05:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY & EUR/JPY : Short term targets are 191.54 and 129.21 respectively.

Ldn Viewer 05:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 05:08 - It was a good call , but an easy call when your Institution is the main buyer of the pair ...IMVHO

houston st 05:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Q..I'll keep both eyes on it..gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston st 05:04 GMT - USD/JPY : Keep an eye on the position of my current weekly cycle key quantized level.

NY,NY GFX_PWS 05:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
It was useful in the european session last night moving into the US today..indicator crossed at approx. 1.8284 and not converging until around 1.8060..not a bad move..we use the hourly to affirm the stance.

Beijing Laowen 05:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi shanghai bc, still remember your call on Aud/Usd for 0.75+ more than one year ago when it was ard. 0.63. Great long term call! IMHO, I think Aussie is walking in a long term falling way from its highs earlier this year. What's your view on it? Thanks.

Beijing Laowen 05:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi shanghai bc, still remember your call on Aud/Usd for 0.75+ more than one year ago when it was ard. 0.63. Great long term call! IMHO, I think Aussie is walking in a long term falling way from its highs earlier this year. What's your vie won it? Thanks.

houston st 05:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
QINDEX--good morning..from your comments I take it you are expecting a yen Bull run soon? gl/gt.

ICT ML 04:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
NY,NY GFX_PWS 04:45 GMT June 30, 2004

we've used similar....20 and 50 emas....but on 10 and 15 min now

what kind of runs you getting off 5 min?

Hong Kong Qindex 04:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:39 GMT - Good morning! GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY have an unusal pattern in my current 44-day cycle.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:40 GMT - EUR/JPY : If we are lucky we can see something below 130 very soon.

NY,NY GFX_PWS 04:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
for those of you technicians out there...my trading desk has been experimenting with a new strategy and having some decent success..we watch the 20 crossing the 40 EMA on the 5M 2D charts..20 under the 40 signaling a sell signal and over a buy..using mainly in Cable trade..something to maybe look at. GT all.

hangzhou sunny 04:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BC: may i ask jay for your e-mail. i have some pers. business
questions.

Singapore Sfx 04:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
bc 03:39 - Thanks bc. Any thots then on what will go best with the Chanel no 5 essence ?

houston st 04:21 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
BC 03:39--good morning and thank you for your response..sounds like basically more of the same for now..I have to admit that I am guilty of supporting this incestious alliance with China...most everything I've purchased lately was manufactured there -- the one item that brought a smile to my face was a card set I bought from the United States Playing Card Company w/ MANUFACTURED IN CHINA displayed prominently on the side..I guess we should be thankful for their ability to furnish us with cheap goods, as everybody from the Kmarters to the US Govt buy from them..but someday the cheap flip-flops will run out and no more double happiness..may the trading angels smile on you..gl/gt.

shanghai bc 04:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..Usd/Jpy may go down a bit more short-term..But again,do not expect it will stay below 110 that long..They have RMB,not USD, to worry about..Good trades..

hk ab lazy 04:16 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, dlr/jpy chart point to 110.00 area.

hk ab lazy 04:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf door is opening again...

U.K. J.B. 04:13 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
PA KH

Can u help me off my bananna boat pls. This is a highly regulated business and you certainly dont fall into that category. I suggest you keep a low profile

hk ab lazy 04:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Good morning bc// Isn't yen even better for the rest of this year than eur?

Gold Coast martin 04:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia....assuming again...get your facts right:1 gold coast is NOT russian,2.gold coast is originally from melbourne..3. gold coast offered an insight into NBZD based on fact not fiction.....dont worry the only whack you may get is on your cable....good trades and smooth sailing for the volatile times ahead...g/t g/l

shanghai bc 04:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

Trading God mentality is a sign of immaturity in the market..When one is battered and stabbed in the market so many times ,the reality of harsh trading world sets in sooner or later..There are traders who beat the market from time to time making millions and billions in the process.. But no trader can beat the market consistently all the time..The real art is when and how to leave the ring before being stabbled for the last time for good..Except Samuel of Lagos in GVI..

shanghai bc 03:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

PJT -- Good morning..Good to see you..Good trades..

bangalore guru 03:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
cable, break of 1.8060, is bearish and a weekly close below this level exposes 1.7580. intrady 1.8120 is a strong resistance. wud prfr to sell at 1.8120, with stop at 1.8135. 1.8040 and 1.7955 are reasonable targets. GL

melbourne farmacia 03:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Yes.. very high turn over of fx gods on this forum...

Porto PJT 03:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
bc, good morning/evening, very interesting point......as always.Thank you and good trades.

nyc sa 03:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Qindex, nice to see u back ,what's ur call on euro/yen ? is the Tankan report priced in dollar /yen ? thnx .

Porto PJT 03:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, lol, sometimes this forum is funny, cross going 1 or 2 fig in direction wanted, turn some traders in fx gods and telling all kind of bs to support is reasons and views.
Time to sleep, gt.

shanghai bc 03:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   

ST 02:39--Good morning..Still believe rate hike cycle is bad for Dollar down the road and buying anything below Eur/usd 1.20 is as good as money in the bank for the whole year..Not much of a techie,but Dollar Index is still firmly below 50 day ma within a down channel.No.5..A sign of weakening Dollar ,not a strengthening dollar..In any case,dollar collapse is out of question with China still on Dollar peg..With another 10% devaluation of Dollar,China will take away almost all manufacturing business of the world..So,Dollar is likely to be ranging in a broad range with weak bias..Not a good environment for trend following models..In a strange way,China, and Asia via China's Dollar-peg, has become the major Dollar supporter by a pure accident of Dollar peg business..That is till the peg goes..Imho..Good trades..

melbourne farmacia 03:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 03:14 GMT June 30, 2004
Good thanks mate...If i talk about things, the Gold Coast Russian Mafia will whack me...Hehe GT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The first hurdle is 194.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : With a little bit of luck we may see 191.54 later this week.

NY,NY GFX_PWS 03:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Here are my takes on the trading for the European Session..

EURUSD:

Fundamentally I have a negative bias on the Euro tonight. The French numbers due out early should be a non-event baring any major change to the upside, which is not likely. We have EMU confidence and CPI (yoy) due out at 500. Consumer confidence is expected to sustain in negative territory for both personal and business..I think especially in the shadow of extremely strong US confidence, we could see added downward pressure here on a bad number. Technically with the move down in the last 24 hours in EURUSD we broke the bottom of the triangle formation on the hourly chart..a bounce back up could find resistance at the triangles base around 1.2110 / 15. This will be a level to watch. Fibo levels to watch : 1.2130, 1.2150, 1.2167 are the 3 going up. USDCHF cross in strong uptrend..in bullish flag. Gains will be capped on heels of fed tomorrow..looking for choppy trading with not much direction..my bias will be dollar stregnth, looking to sell rally's. Support: 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.1990, 1.1950 Resistance: 1.2110 / 15, 1.2150, 1.2125 / 30

CABLE:

Cable bounced off 1.8050, seems to be heading up a bit in the short term, but I have an overall bearish outlook for cable. Fundamentally UK GDP will be the focus tonight here. We are looking for a .3% drop qoq. and a .3 increase yoy. As it is the .6 estimate is considered a disapointment with manufacturing growth lower bc of housing bubble leading retail sector up. A surprise lower on this number could spark another short term slide in cable..especially considering the lack of technical support underneath it currently. Another consideration here is poor consumer sentiment -2 to -4 mom..this with US confidence way up. Gains here capped as well on heels of fed..looking to sell rally's. Support: 1.8050, 1.7900 (not much support here) Resistance: 1.8100, 1.8125, 1.8150, 1.8180

GL / GT all

Quebec 03:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Long NZD/USD 0.6315. Any comments?

Porto PJT 03:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, hope you are well, be carefull, nzd monetary policy stuff is to keep in secret.......cheers & gt.

HK Kevin 03:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 02:38 GMT, please wait until I cover my long position around 109.15 later today.

ny amc 03:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
is anyone going to be putting on any new positions tomorrow before the fomc decision

pa kh 03:01 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks houston, I will try to post daily and maby we can all profit

Beijing Laowen 02:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ab, it seems we are looking at a same thing from different point of view,although in fact we think the same. usd/jpy is still potential to go down to 107,105 and 103. Short around here should be correct but I will begin to accumulate longs from beneath 107.50 if seen.

houston st 02:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh -- I'll quit peppering you with questions & let you get on with your trading..I'm sure this forum looks forward to hearing your trades as they occur & let them speak for themselves..much luck to you.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:57 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh 02:29 GMT June 30, 2004

I hope you are successful with your money management but I have said this before if you want to stay a trader in this business for a long time you have to have good R/R (money management) to make it to the end. This is not a 100-yard dash it is a marathon IMHO. These comments are not meant to criticize only to give you my opinion on the matter.

bahrain gd 02:31 GMT June 30, 2004

We must be careful for we are in a range and a tight one at that with eur/usd lately. Mid term indicators are hinting down for this pair but the intraday indicators are in O/S at this moment. I believe as long as the 1.2170-75 area is not broken there is still pressure to the down side in this tight range. Now key resistance to break for a bigger move is 1.2250-60 and key support is 1.1965-55 IMHO. GL GT

Cairns Aussie 02:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Could we see Buy the rumour / sell the fact tomorrow on EUR/USD...a question for the more experienced here

hk ab lazy 02:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Laowen, I am quite sure LONG term trade would be the south side till the end of the year.

Right now, all the fib from 114.97 --> 107.00 should be kept in mind.

I don't mean to rush to short but plan to short. GT :D

pa kh 02:53 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
risk to return= 1/1.3

Beijing Laowen 02:50 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ab, I think different on usd/jpy. I think we'd better BOD for a long term trade.

NYC YIPPEE 02:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:46 GMT June 30, 2004

Interesting relative to have.

In the big picture scenario room for the Kiwi to appreciate versus the dollar mainly. But have started to look at NZD/MXN which makes for an interesting position to have in the portfolio.

ICT ML 02:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
AG......I still think it is a buy on dip now. But hellll was wrong last night on it bigtime.


I kind of agree with Ravens statement. Today I think we saw the market get long U$D in anticipation of making a quick $$$ or two tomorrow....(bad sign)......which makes me want to join in on the stop attack tomorrow ;-)...sometimes this thinking makes good $$$ sometimes it hurts really, really bad....

pa kh 02:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry again 10 lots or under

Las Vegas D 02:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ANy feelings on whether or not GBP/USD will hit last nights low of 1.8045

pa kh 02:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry-I guess I dont have A sense of humor

NYC YIPPEE 02:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh

There are winners, losers and people who don't even play (They just watch). I am not sure where you would fall.

houston st 02:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh -- I thought you did 10 lots or more at a whack..how is this possible w/ acct size under 1k? I'm also curious what your r/r profile is? tia.

melbourne farmacia 02:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hmmm... Interesting discussion on the forum once again .... Having a family member who currently sits on the board of Reserve Bank of New Zealand, he would be very amused by one's so called knowledge on NZ Dollar, monetary policy etc.... GT

Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - Good luck in your trade.

pa kh 02:44 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
im trying to take A serious side to this

NYC CS 02:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa - kh that was a joke...speaks volumes that you didn't get it

pa kh 02:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
right, with a 50,000 portfolio we could take A hit like that
but I work with amounts under 1k

houston st 02:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI BC -- if you are around today would you mind commenting on this $ bounce and this week's activity..tia.

hk ab lazy 02:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
qindex, I am planning new dlr/jpy shorts now.

CAIRO AG 02:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ML// Long time... hope all is well with u recently....

Might be though... it was 30 p away from that weekly line anyways...

So what do u think on that one?? would u go with the idea of shorting/longing it??

Have a GOOD TRADING DAY...

Va Raven 02:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
The most porpular view for tomorrow's market is "USD down" although the actual market has been moving the other direction.
I am not too sure about that, but do feel uncomfortable with the position adjustment today - better off for dollar if no such adjustment.

NYC CS 02:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I have models that generate 98% or better profitable signals...as long as you don't mind the fact sitting on losers for extended periods of time until they turn around, and that the other 2% that never turn around will be several hundred times larger than the average winner. All you have to do is quit at the 98th trade.

hk ab lazy 02:32 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nz is guarding the 4hrs upward channel.

With more and more stops hit on aud longs, it lost people's confidence and credits.

It will be the 5th touch of .68 line.

ICT ML 02:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 02:15 GMT June 30, 2004

Or because gbp-jpy bounced off the weekly channel bottom today;->

hk revdax 02:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:24 GMT//Technically $ is poised for a down move. i mean my kind of technical analysis, which might not agree to that of many others'. I think it will drop for the whole day.

bahrain gd 02:31 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
omil, which way EUR/USD is heading for, target pl?

hk ab lazy 02:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
You know, the only recent valid commentator which deserve credit is Martin. I hope he will carry on after tonight Fed's statement 16 more hrs to go.

Before that pay attention to yen crosses. No bottom, no life.

pa kh 02:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
miami
still whats so hard about it, if you dond follow strict indicators
but learn A pulse for the market how can the sharks get to you?

nyc sa 02:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn , there is also a possibility of no rate hike until August based on recent data .. could be The surprise awaiting tne market ,hence a lower dollar ?

nyc sa 02:24 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Revdax , why u think dollar is going down ? and what's ur time -frame for this down move ? just in Asia time ? no rate hike u think ? or a smaller hike than expected ,i.e. 0.25 whereas the dollar level has a higher rate priced in ?

Ldn Viewer 02:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:04 GMT - No Hike = Weaker USD across the board in my view ... FED then will be seen as weak and the behind the curve ... .25bp to me is the done deal ... key is the statement .. guys remember the US is keen on a weaker USD to cover the Twin Deficits .. with added higher interest rates makes it more attractive ... but issue is the Bond market and the carry trades with added leverage , do they start an avalanche .... interesting days, weeks , months ahead ... GL all be nimble ...

hk revdax 02:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:04 //$ coming down...imo

CAIRO AG 02:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
ab// WAS 100% with u, till GBPYEN did HH and LL on the DAILY today...

Asked TWO of the VERY BEST TRADERS HERE: BOTH are TOWARDS ( didnt say confirmed ) that it will start LONGING...

I see that Logic, cause the LL & HH bar since its supposed to be a sign for TR, and sice the GBPYEN was down 900 pips than it might start longing...LOL?

GL & GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man if I can get in on this deal I guess I can start living in the Keys of South Florida permanently. I will be looking for a summer home in Cape Coral soon too LOL. The market will humble you sooner or later that is for sure. It will bring you down to your knees and what was working last year this year is giving you losses that is a plain fact and all the traders that have been around not 2 or 3 years but decades will tell you so IMHO. GL GT

pa kh 02:12 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
no gut feeling, just a short change at that.

London 02:11 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Earlier this year, Australian Greens leader Bob Brown anointed Labor leader Mark Latham the nation's prime minister-in-waiting.
But times have changed.
Angered by Labor's views on issues close to his heart, Brown now believes Latham's chances of defeating conservative Prime Minister John Howard at this year's election have slumped to 50-50.
smh.

pa kh 02:09 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
good question but were challenging resistance-the question is why

hk ab lazy 02:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
seems people still don't aware the yen crosses are still making it South rounds......

kh, go ahead with your reversal and long with your "guts-feeling'.

nyc sa 02:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
No rate hike at all tomorrow ? any scenarios for tomorrow ?

Porto PJT 02:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Ok pa, i was just looking noise, you have made any position already?if yes where , what level, what stop and what target please?

pa kh 02:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
porto
follow eur/usd with me at this time and maby we can take
notes

pa kh 02:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
just broke resistance

Porto PJT 02:00 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa, ok, market need all kind of traders...........you really need more years on paper trading, try 14 this time.....sorry if i understand you wrong.

Rye, NY et 01:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Re: Fed Funds

pa kh 01:59 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
are wre seeing a trend change?

Rye, NY et 01:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW...Re: Fed Funds

pa kh 01:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd just entered consolidation, any idea where it goes
next

pa kh 01:54 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry NYC

NYC YIPPEE 01:52 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh

Please don't stick up your P&L.. Makes my stomach turn.

pa kh 01:51 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I count the spread as loss till profit

pa kh 01:49 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
porto
the under 25 pips was the original spread

London 01:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
May credit aggregates show private sector credit +1.2% on-month, 15.1% on-year, housing credit +1.5% on-month, +20.3% on-year. Figures closely watched by RBA as it's hoping for cooling in housing credit growth
Pace of borrowing will concern RBA, which worried about rising levels of household debt, house prices. Perceptions of less widening pressure between RBA (5.25%), RBNZ (5.75%) cash rates should help AUD/NZD
AAP

pa kh 01:48 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
houston
correct
not A lot but its the little bit that ads up if you have the percentage

Porto PJT 01:47 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
but you have been how much underwater ?25 pips one time you said, and how many time?

pa kh 01:46 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
porto
as stated, yesterday was exceptionatly slow-but still managed to get out with +3 pips, not good but still better
than A slash

houston st 01:43 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh -- no offense, but if you trade 10 lots or more than $650 doesn't seem like alot of $$$...is that correct? gl/gt.

Porto PJT 01:42 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa , you have made many profit on the only trade you really posted?long usd cad last night?

UAE Oil man 01:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
No holding on?but with 1 million in a ccy...and targetting 500$..you are targetting 5 pips or what?it sounds FANTASTIC..I can't wait to start.

CAIRO AG 01:39 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gecko: thanks... even thogh i didnt enter yet, but am inclined to ur view...

GL & GT

pa kh 01:37 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
yes to live
size is personal-sorry

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Heading towards 388.7.

pa kh 01:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
the usual in is 10 lots and we take profit as quickly as possible
no holding on

nyc jk 01:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm in too Oil man, but only if he can promise better returns than that Samuel guy who posts here who GUARANTEES 80% per month!

LA newfx 01:35 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh:
are you trading live acc?
what is your trading size?

Spotforex NY 01:34 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
The market has a way to humble those who think they are bigger and better then it.

Mark my words.

pa kh 01:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I dont see a problem with that

UAE Oil man 01:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Yes, it looks interesting pk ph, you could just trade us all(not just rivonia..why only him..)..and make the thousands percent and we relax on the beach with St pete's and Omil?..but hey why 30%...if u make so much 20 will do?..Let us know..we're all waiting for your answer.

pa kh 01:29 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pippirate
would be willing to take that offer
lets set up a week or two of following my trades real time
then you decide

pa kh 01:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry- it took over 4 years of paper trading to get to this point

GER ad 01:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CAD,

1/2 Out at 2.4360 rest 1/2 now S/L at cost

sar jf 01:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
personally still trying to figure the cc number from today out

Rivonia PipPirate 01:23 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh 01:14 pa kh 01:14 Very good day to you, I am just wondering if you would consider trading my account for me. O f course I will be very willing to pay you, shall we say 30% of the profits. There are others offering similar services to you, but I think your record speaks for itself. The fact that you offer the luxuary of a demo trial will clinch the deal(not that I would expect you to actually prove youself). You reputation once again preceeds you. Anxiously awaiting your further instructions.

hk ab lazy 01:18 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
jf// I give 6 more hrs.....

nyc jk 01:17 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 01:15 GMT June 30, 2004

jf - I'm 2 offered for you ! :)

sar jf 01:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh 01:14 GMT June 30, 2004
lets see if you are here in 6 months

brisbane sunstate 01:15 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
pa kh 00:58 GMT
Maybe beginners luck!

pa kh 01:14 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
I mean in the past 2 hrs. I have made just over 650$ whats
so hard about it?

hk ab lazy 01:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
If aud/py can't guard 74, aud longs will be another thought.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:03 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
This helps to keep the mind healthy. good in times like these.

http://www.engrish.com/

pa kh 00:58 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
what i dont get is why i have over 80% on my trades while
outhers struggle at the 60% level

hk ab lazy 00:56 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
To me, the move towards 1.1750, .6775 and 1.75 were all yen/crosses driven. Once the yen crosses finished its job, then, we can talk about further USD weakness. This is exactly due to the unwinding of yen carried over these two years which made the zig zag consolidation.

van Gecko 00:41 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 22:48 GMT.. lazy ab.. fwiw another trick of the trade;
Traders or trading methods must be conscious of inter-market relationships and levels at all time.. otherwise your odds for survival in this biz are limited.. a boxer with only a 'left hand jab' in his arsenal is a quacking sitting duck while waiting for that eventual big KO..
Most prudent risk adversed market movers are reluctant to push the Aussi & Kiwi downside any further from these levels.. however, myopic piker specs going for crumbs may be the exception..

CAIRO AG 00:26.. no, the risk is now to the upside.. the 193/194 band is a very strong support..
gl..

hk ab lazy 00:40 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Noody, thanks though.
:D

Quebec 00:38 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Long NZD/USD @ 0.6315

Any comments on this pair?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:33 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
figure can change later on.

JPY BUYERS SELLERS
11.09 9.22

hk ab lazy 00:30 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Noody, comparing with others it's still on the same point...
The range is tight?

Spr NoodyG 00:27 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
AB have a look at MXN can be helpful on your Cad judgements

CAIRO AG 00:26 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Gecko: GBPYEN did a higher high AND a lower low with a close near its LOW!!

Do u suggest to short it?? FROM WHERE????

Thanks & GL

hk ab lazy 00:20 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Don't know if anyone still remember the cover of a "Economist" magazine which has a traditional Japanese lady face and a drop of tears on her face.....

I remember quite clearly it said, "yen will never strengthen due to the deflation spiral tragedy and dilema......"

Looks like we have the same pic on USD now....

Never "impossible" in this fx-jungle.

hk ab lazy 00:08 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
would like to see dlr/cad breaks 1.37 and eur/chf breaks 1.53 before saying USD bullish.

gbp is so weakkkkkkkkkkkkk even among all the Europhia curr.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:07 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone I am back online after some time off in the beautiful keys of south Florida. Looking back at these past weeks the eur/usd pair with out a direction and trend was a tough pair to trade. Eur/usd has been held in check with stop talk for the past hours under the 1.2060-70 support if this holds up then I have retracement numbers at around 1.2105-15, 1.2130-35, 1.2150-55 and 1.2170-75. Support is found now at 1.2070-60, with stops under 1.2045-35, 1.2010-2000 and 1.1965-55 the mother T/L. Major resistance is at 1.2200-10, 1.2230-40 and 1.2250-60 with heavy stops and option barrier around this area IMHO. GL GT

hk ab lazy 00:06 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
gecko// commodities has its unmoved nature of climb wall, down elevator.......

Noted that cad didn't move much.

Nice to see my eur shorts didn't hit. But need some decision on eur/aud.

ny amc 00:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...gep........Good for you

Beijing Laowen 00:04 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Left the computer for most of the time yesterday and my Long usd/jpy possie from 107.12 was stopped out @108.25. Will wait for a good entry to long again. Usd/Jpy is gradually bottoming up and will go up for a long term until 120+ is seen. Just IMHO.

Dallas GEP 00:02 GMT June 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks AMC Yes I am still short on GBP from yesterday

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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