Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2004

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 23:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
shorted aud macd crossed 1 hr

Brisbane L 23:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Seems ANZ are bullish the Aud, along with quite a few on GV and have so far been proven correct , as Van Gecko says shorting is expensive. There are said to be some small sell orders at 7075 which Anz expect to be filled today. opening an extension to 7120, they are also quite bullish on the Australian building approval data we shall have to see.

Minnesota U-genius 23:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your views on Aud

Goes (NL) B747 23:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
In case you would like to pay EUR 0.41 for USD 1/-, just take contact with the nearest North Korean embassy. :)

just watched BBC report about Super Dollars.

Amazing story!

Brisbane L 23:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD continues to edge higher helped by data showing job vacancies at highest level in May since 1974, credit growth at fastest since 1980s. numbers increase likelihood of rate hike which is AUD positive so we may see a little higher today RBA next week should also be supportive nearterm

QC WC 23:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Now that Usd?yen above 108.31/40, should be safe to hold long positions.

Singapore Sfx 23:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Please ........ Cablyen is a wrong term. Please search archives for the history of how Cable got its name. Cable is Gbp/Usd. Gbpyen or Stgyen are just that. apart from being frisky.

KEN HOUSTON 23:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
u can take profit or wait to enter for long position i dont advice any shorting position now on aussi too bullish mean time ausssie $

Minnesota U-genius 23:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hello, friends, AUD/USD gurus,
IMO this pair is @ its climax, maybe one more try to reach please your comments,0.7070?
tia

KEN HOUSTON 23:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
to me gpd is bullish and usa cad is berish i will wait entrying any of the position will reverse soon

LAX-LGB SNP 23:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd below 1.8256 is still a sell in my book
long on usdcad (96 hours of selling ought to squeeze higher)
eurgbp below falling TL (06/03) seems enroute for mid-0.65s

GL TC everyone :-) have fun

p.s.
for the longest time i thought LHR was short for Lahore, Pakistan ;-) should have taken a cue from the reference to jumbo jets

Goes (NL) B747 23:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 23:08 GMT July 1, 2004

London Heathrow Airport

Goes located in South-West of Holland (the province called Zeeland)...the area is famous for the dams,

GT

PC Beach, FL Chris 23:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like the EUR$ is forming a symetrical triangle..jobs report tomorrow morning may show the way to go..

Good trades To All

Beijing Laowen 23:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 23:04 GMT July 1, 2004 //

Mate, what's LHR you were located? tks.

Goes (NL) B747 23:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Now I am back to Holland, so I will change the location...:)

KEN HOUSTON 22:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
buying euro$ here thanks stp 15 pips below

LHR B747 22:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

please correct me if I am wrong; you actually looking for 197.50-198.10 to short GBP/JPY - right?


may I have your email address?
I would like to ask you so much about the process into full-time FX trader...if you do not mind.

GT to you GEP and to all the good people in this forum

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
i sent mail to [email protected]

you got yahoo mssgr? what's your handle

Dallas GEP 22:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
B747. It indeed IS my job. I howver am a relative rookie, I have been doing FX for about 4 years.

LHR B747 22:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
KEN HOUSTON; please let me know taking which position NOW is healthy, TIA.

Va Raven 22:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
For instance, Jim?

LHR B747 22:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, when reading your posts I feel something that I do not have, I feel FX trading expirience.

MAy you tell me how long already you do FX trading and if this trading is your 'job'?

Thanks for guiding by sharing from your expirience!

KEN HOUSTON 22:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
gdp yen is not retracting and weekly chart is very bullish shorting now is not healthy

Bruxville Jim 22:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
E.g. trading range tops and bottoms often turns out to have great r/r no matter is it gbp/chf or nzd/jpy.

Bruxville Jim 22:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 22:34 GMT // It's more important at what price and direction you enter instead of caring whether the pair is a lucky one or tricky one

Va Raven 22:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Which pair will allow you to minimize the loss when you are wrong and maximize your gain if you are right?

Dallas GEP 22:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, I never got your email.

Dallas GEP 22:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Right now I agree GBP/JPY is bullish It is approaching a resistance point around 197.60. The problem with GBP/JPY is trying to determoine WHEN it might turn and runthe other way and that's why it is dangerous because those POINTS can be 60-70 pips away from each other. I will post later my view on it specifically for tonight . Quite frankly I may have to wait for a while because I would like to find a plce for a good short on it.

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY is a whippy currency.... any ccy that moves about 200 pips a day in either direction is...

you have to have a really good mathematical model to trade it so you can always replicate successful calls/trades... trendlines stochastics and all that stuff won't work with this pair or well they will work few times maybe most times... but the times that they do not work could be the last time you placed trades on your account if not careful.

Bruxville Jim 22:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I've heard of a guy who wiped out his 5000$ account by one non-stop cableyen position. He bought 1 lot at ~200 but then the nice range ceased to exist.

GA TJ 22:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP

The GBP/JPY is the FLAME and I am the MOTH. Sometimes invigorating and sometimes dead. So now the times comes and its calling my name. Short me, TJ, Short me now!!! So being the brave lionhearted trader that I am, I will without reservation go fix another Vodka Tonic and sit on the deck and read the paper.

Brisbane L 22:15 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Market talk that the australian Dollar is benefiting from summertime carry trades

Bruxville Jim 22:15 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 21:57 GMT // yes, occasionally. I managed to take some advantage of the nice 200/202/204 range recently - but for all times - low leverage of no more than 10 is the name of the game with CableYen...

KEN HOUSTON 22:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
gdp yen is very bullish on 4 hr chart any pullback is buying opporturnity short this cross will get u in trouble stay long

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
okay here is my situation... i have JPY and GBP rates in my live data feed but no GBP/JPY... does it make sense to do the cross rate conversions and then go from there or could it be that each pairs rates are independent of what is happening with GBP/JPY?

i calculated a signal last night (MANUALLY) using the GBP/JPY rates but by the time i finished the move was almost over.

Would love some opinions on this as don't want to waste the time.

LHR B747 22:07 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you are right - it is maybe a good idea to see myself as a sick puppy too...I cannot stand aside when this battle flied is accessable with a mouse click :)

What is your view for this teasing pair for the next 2-3 sessions?

Dallas GEP 22:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
YES B747 I do trade GBP/JPY. It makes GBP/USD look almost timid in comparision, I have made alot of money with it and I have lost alot of money with it. It is so challenging I have a hard time avoiding it. That makes me one sick puppy I guess!!! LOL

LHR B747 21:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 21:53 GMT July 1, 2004

I will be happy to close the position @ 194.50...do you play kamikaza/harakiri too?

Bruxville Jim 21:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 21:18 GMT July 1, 2004
what bout 194.50? You didn't go short there, did you?

LHR B747 21:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Oil man, if this one fails than I will move to USD/HKD

Brisbane L 21:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Traders were seeing fresh demand for high yielding currencies since the Fed was rather dovish in its statement yesterday also a strong Tankan fuels demand for Aussie, since Japan
is Australia's largest export market. Yield spreads have widened as well and exceeded the recent 100/120 bps range vs. 10-year US Treasuries. A pair of US investment banks bought a chunk of Aussie and a hedge fund knocked EUR/AUD back below 1.7300. The 0.7050 barriers were triggered later in the session with a rise in commodity prices
Views overnight

UAE Oil man 21:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well B747 , be careful , GBPJPY doesn't take any prisoners..be flexible and nimble, and live to another trade.

Well off for good.

Haifa ac 21:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Opening game=final
Second time in history. In 88 Holand played Russia at open. Russians won 1:0. In the Final Holland won with 2 goals (one amazing by Van Basten)

LHR B747 21:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Gep, your words of wisdon are what I start to discover (negative side of it regarding the position I hold).

do you trade GBP/JPY?

Brisbane. 21:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
US M&A Flows To The Euro Zone Up Sharply ..

LHR B747 21:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
oil man, 194.50 before 198/-...if not nightmare is the term for me!


GT

GER ad 21:17 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
A new god in Olymp...
His name is Rehagel.

Dallas GEP 21:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
B747 GBP/JPY is beyond almost everyone's expectations. It CAN be an absolute killer because of it's movements and false runs both short and long. It most times requires 60-100 pips stops and it can run easily 200-400 pips. It is very nasty and it's difficult to average out of a possie if you are wrong. It though is NEVER boring!!!! LOL

Roumeli anka 21:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
The god of luck has a Greek name Jim. Hermes

UAE Oil man 21:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
It can be a dream or a nightmare...

Porto PJT 21:11 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Congrats Greece, we see you on the final..........

Roumeli anka 21:11 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
...and Greece wins. Again...

Porto PJT 21:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Guad juan 21:02 , silver goal is a goal that have value at the end of the first or second part of the extra game, gold gold, put a imediatte finish on the game.

LHR B747 21:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Oil man, I am new to GBP/JPY and must admit that it is far beyond my wildest dreams...

for the moment, if 197.50 breaks than I will start to face a problem - we will see...

GT

UAE Oil man 21:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Stops to entry by the way B747 now , and GN GT all.

Guad juan 21:02 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
what is the diference between a silver and a gold goal

UAE Oil man 21:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
B747 it sounds too complicated for me...

Not sure how long you been trading this one, But watch out usually few little soldier's bars on the hourly and it goes and goes.

Bruxville Jim 20:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
An unbelievable disaster for Czech soccer team...
Lucky Greeks!!!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Congratulations to Greece a great game 1-0 against the Czech's with a silver goal.

Dammam M 20:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man Thank you very much.
I appreciate your time.
Good luck

Goes (NL) B747 20:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 20:00 GMT July 1, 2004

OK...I wish you good luck with the position as I do not mind to see 197.50 hit...but than short for 194 than to 191...and than we will long together to 203...:)

Make your money until 187.50, than be with me for 194..!!!

Even being opposite to your position, I still wish you good luck upto 197.50

GT

UAE Oil man 20:07 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well Dammas,$/cad is going down..but it seems they just ran made a quick stop hunt on it today..but still don't see it as a long here but a short...If you look back in archives I posted it wasnt a good long @1.3610(due to resistance at 1.3725 which wasnt broken)..so at 1.32-1.33 it's even less attracting.

UAE Oil man 20:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well friend i shorted last night 197.94 (around the same time Gep was talking about it..He got 198.14 if i remember right..So didnt need to comment on it..),closed 196.20
And now I think it's going to move back up towards 198..
And ya talking the book here as i longed it 10 minutes before the damman guy asked about it..that is why i talked about it..

Moscow Hawk 19:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
We have reached my second target in AUD/USD � 0.7065-00. This zone is good for taking partial profits. I still can not see the weakness in the pair. Rather the opposite. Market is going to close near the highs second day in row. Test of 0.7200-50 is still in sight. I do not favour shorts till downside confirmation (now it is move below 0.69) but if short it is better not to keep the possie for a long. Possible downticks due to the intraday correction could be short-lived.

Good luck.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
If 0.6650 breaks I will cut my losses on that one, im neutral on the pair below there.

Dammam M 19:56 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil Man ..... Thank you
What do you think about $/CAD?

Goes (NL) B747 19:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 19:50 GMT July 1, 2004

Holland already lost, please do not make my short GBP/JPY position to lose too...bring it first to 194/- and we will take the ride to 293/- together!

Is it a deal?

GT

UAE Oil man 19:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Where's stop BB?

USA Biscuit Boy 19:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well one of us will be happy with eur/gbp action at least hehe.

KEN HOUSTON 19:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
men there are serious trading going on who said that this is holiday?

UAE Oil man 19:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Damman , well i think 196.50-197 area is good place to long the GBPJPY stops near 195.80 and watch it fly.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur/gbp at 0.6685 for 0.6740.

UAE Oil man 19:48 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes biscuit, still holding 67+ for that EurGBP..and still looking for 65xx..


As for AUD$ it's looks tired,And as for it's long-term wouldnt be surprised to see another huge failure round here 7080-7130 or at the daily trend line and weekly average respectively @7280-7250

USA Biscuit Boy 19:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Meanwhile eur/gbp is testing support at 0.6680.....break gives 0.6650 which must hold for upside bias to continue.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas I am bullish from a longer term view...you are right it could easily go back to 0.6980 or lower before taking out 0.7080....and maybe it keeps on heading lower. When Martin comes back he will tell us so :)

toronto dr.unken kat 19:15 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
but the end is close stochs are in the 80s already on 1 & 4hr

)toronto( dr.unken kat 19:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
it doesnt matter gep , just check the 1hr macd , wide open and raising , when they cross .............ooops sorry gep i wasnt supposed to influence

hei remembr my cable call ?? heheh

KEN HOUSTON 19:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
weekly chart is very bullish in aussie i know smaller charts indicates oversold i think that will be little pull back .

Dammam M 19:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man Thank you very much.
I'v a sell position(GBP/JPY) & long position for $/CAD since few days.I'm thinking to close those positions.

*I'm trading a mini account.
I appreciate ur response;Oil man and would like to know ur & the other experts thoughts.

Dallas GEP 19:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well it seems most of you guys are bullish Aussie. I just don't see it based on the fact it is over bought on 2 hour 1 hour 30 minute and Daily are all over bought.

censored you guys could be right I dunno. No doubt it could go against technicals but I beleive EVEN if it does eventually long we will get retracement to below FIG first.

UAE Oil man 19:02 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPy looks like a good buy at this levels.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Oil Man may the wind be on your camels back tomorrow. GL GT

Dammam M 18:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello good people ...

Any thoughts about $/CAD & GBP/JPY for the comming week?
Any response will be appreciated.
GL

UAE Oil man 18:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well Omil, euro has a chance here..just gotta hope it doesnt miss it, and starts trending.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I think the double bottom for aud/usd would be the one at 0.6790. Either way the aussie is headed up. If 0.72 top of this range is broken we can think about a run to 0.76 in coming months.....censored that van gecko was right :)

Dallas GEP 18:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Fred, my average SHORT Aussie is .7037 not bad at all and I haven't seen the .7070 I was looking for,

Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Those usd/cad shorts last night may very well have been a false breakout. HARD to tell really.

Aussie @ .7065 on hourly chart shows to have been a possible double top. .7077 was high on June 7th.

Sydney Angus 18:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Aussie is heading for 0.7215. But hey, stop loss orders are always arbitrary.

Bangkok FBF 18:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP//At the lvl you sold, you might find the break over 50 lvl rough going. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man are you favoring up or down at this point for eur/usd?

UAE Oil man 18:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Don't see why all of a sudden it should be bad omil..good news have a way of trending as much as bad news..

San Diego San Diego 18:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd movement has been great the last 2 days.

Dallas GEP 18:24 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NY, Well as far as the Aussie goes THERE is a potential double bottom @ .6970.

NY 18:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:16
No. Bottom. I hope for your case, it is top.
Good luck

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Again my worst fear tomorrow is that we don�t break this spell eur/usd has us under and we continue on this range for the rest of the dull boring summer. What are your thoughts on the effects of NFP Oil Man? tia

Dallas GEP 18:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NY, you mean a double top on AUD/USD?????

UAE Oil man 18:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dow jones is coming in a more or less straight line from 7400..but you are fixxed on a 150 pips dip..Guess everything is in the eye of the beholder..

NY 18:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Could the AUD have seen a double bottom?
I was told this early this morning and am having mixed readings.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
In this tight range a small bullish channel has been created for the eur/usd and the whipsaw of an NFP Friday could throw you of the horse before you begin riding it I agree. Thanks for your comments SPOT. GL GT tomorrow

NY 18:11 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 18:09
I agree, some. Enough of the selloff is due to higher costs to corporates to borrowing and effecting profits. We will see what follows next week.
Good luck

Nottingham 18:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NY 18:04 GMT

some of this is down due to July 4th long weekend...nevertheless, a close below 1127 on s&p is bad news

NY 18:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 18:06
Thanks for the info.
Foreigners hold a great deal of $ assets. If the DOW and the dollar move down together, then it might.
Good luck

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 18:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   

happy trading all Gaynadian traders , aud nice move, missed macd cross on 1hr

UAE Oil man 18:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
$ has nothing to do with stocks NY.

NY 18:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sometimes, the CAD and AUD lead the pack against the buck. It is difficult deciding when it is true.

Madras JJ 18:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NY WTI is trading at $ 39.05 now..

NY 18:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
If a 1/4 point is driving stocks down 150 points what will many hikes do to stocks going forward?
This down day on equities is being driven on high volume and time to think after yesterday's Fed.
THink the dollar breaksdown in a VERY BIG way, very shortly.
Good luck all.

UAE Oil man 18:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
And Raven will see 30 000..;)

UAE Oil man 17:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Ok, Just remember we are in low oil consumption month, so don't be surprised to see oil going higher than present..starting september..(still think 36 is a good key level btw.)..Apart from this i do NOT see this oil run as majorly negative overall for the Equity markets..due to the present Barril consumption/% of GDP...(not talking of currency here.)
Again I believe (something I have stated now for over a year so people should be sitting good LEAPS, CALLS, stocks etc on equities..) that we're standing in front of a major bull market(for equities.), and people should buckle up and watch 13000 fly by..

ny amc 17:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy......very nice call on aud/usd......keep your posts coming. learning alot from them...thanks

Spotforex NY 17:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
bias is for the upside for the euro....but the signal has not been confirm...above 1.23 or sub 1.19 IGNITE momentum....I will go with it...Personally - I use a 100 pip stop on initial range break to filter out noise. Use 'sensible' leverage.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
No idea when Jim sorry...pressure keeps on below 108.40 tho.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 17:42 GMT July 1, 2004
I hope so this range is not healthy for the trend followers. What are you favoring right now before the NFP up or down for eur/usd? tia

UAE Oil man 17:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Let's hope so spot.

Bruxville Jim 17:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 17:35 GMT // Do you expect that huge $yen move before payrolls?

Spotforex NY 17:42 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
euro models are bubbling over with fresh signals.....buy Volatility friends......1.26 or 1.16 very, very soon.....

Dallas GEP 17:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
A usd/chf LONG here @ 1.2480 with 30 pip stop should bring profit

USA Biscuit Boy 17:35 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes Valdez I think eur/usd can crawl up slowly.....bigger move will be yen, especially against the dollar.

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Will add more aussie shorts if .7070 is seen

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Working some Aussie shorts from .7038, USD/CHF longs from 1.2485.

quito_valdez @yahoo 17:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
So Biscuit Boy, your gut feeling is eur/usd UP in proximal future sessions...still have eur/usd long at 1.2130 as resistance wasn't impressive enough for me to short it. What think?

USA Biscuit Boy 17:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bought a small amount of kiwi at 0.6412.....stop below 0.6380....maybe good for a run at 0.65+.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
see you later my friends.. may succes for you all here.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad..have founded bottom 1.3252, now is on the way to get 1.3480. buy !!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
for usd/chf,
if touch 1.2465 is good level for buy.welcome 1.2621 as the top...I think move from 1.2465

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hi friends..eur/usd is on the sell signal now (have made). maximal tick can be toleranted is 1.2200.
welcome to 1.2094 ..move from that area. ..in TA

USA Biscuit Boy 16:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/usd really needs to close today above its 13 day ema at 1.2140 to keep its positive tone and prospects to pressure 1.2350 in coming sessions.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
in TA, aud/usd pattren condition is too danger now for hold your buy.
my little opinion.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
good pattern of aud/usd for sell again.

Gold Coast martin 16:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good evening...Despite aud breaking 7020 resistance barrier its current run is looking tired due to no legitimate fundamental reasons of its own,,so look for a retreat back to 6970 levels with another attempt to break the 6950 level..timeframe:end of ny trading friday....good trades to those that have patience....

Va Raven 16:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Very impressive, NH, will certainly keep these numbers in mind.
Thanks mate and happy hunting!

Livingston nh 16:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raven- fwiw - Retail weak - construction and manufacturing +56K, gov't +16K -- Financial and health services are wild cards +158K (seasonal adjustment +44K)

NFP +243K // hrly earnings +0.4%

UAE Oil man 16:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes biscuit, via the euro cross.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd 0/7055.
time to action sell for 0.6965 again

Va Raven 16:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NH, any take on NFP tomorrow?

Livingston nh 16:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
out on USD/CHF - broke the 21 da sma support and yesterday's low ( -50pips)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
need 3 minutes again for gbp/usd form now to invite selling emotion. welcome to 1.8155 for first step.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd when at 1.8176.
my forcast map moving : 1.8176 (sell level) and then down to 1.8102 and then up to 1.8148 and then down to 1.8086 and then up again form there...

USA Biscuit Boy 16:27 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
One interesting development for the aud is buyers willing to chase the market at these levels....haven't seen this in a while.....a nice clue now.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:24 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hello friends !!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF Buy 1.2821 1.2267

But Eur/CHF is better
EURCHF Buy 1.5372 1.5146
More on
1.5120
and A little more on 1.5102
Should make 2 figures buy late Friday

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:07 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
bahrain within 10 pips// what say you about CHF.. been reading your posts recently.

TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sort of What I am plan to do
EURUSD Buy 1.2399 1.1936
USDJPY 110.1832 106.1927
GBPUSD Sell 1.8458 1.7890
USDCHF Buy 1.2821 1.2267
EURCHF Buy 1.5372 1.5146
AUDUSD Buy 0.7164 0.6790
USDCAD Sell 1.3577 1.3201
NZDUSD Buy 0.6539 0.6199
EURGBP Buy 0.6763 0.6622
EURJPY Buy 134.2202 129.0653
GBPJPY Sell 199.8758 193.3490
CHFJPY Sell 87.8617 84.5836
GBPCHF 2.3046 2.2536
EURAUD Sell 1.7718 1.7155
EURCAD Sell 1.6550 1.6032
AUDCAD Sell 0.9524 0.9158
AUDJPY Buy 77.0015 73.9409

Goes (NL) B747 16:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

You sound like the song of the SMITHS "The queen is dead" :)

UAE Oil man 16:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Removed my Euro to pay oz's stops..And only holding Eurogbp 67+ for the nice carry and the next move towards 65..

Off GL.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys..
In general I suggest You don't Long GBP
Does anyone here Long AUs/CAd Long Term....> 9 Figures
Or Short Eur/AUs...> 6 Figures

Goes (NL) B747 15:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Alimin,

GBP/JPY is not boring, these two are giving new dimension for LONG/SHORT for 35-45pips...it looks like very possible to make 200-250pips a day with GBO/JPY.

What do you need, a boring or booring?

GT

UAE Oil man 15:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well done Tarheel, Can't always get them all of them right, and peace of mind has better value than a few pips.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Rafe :) Sort of a power index for a short time frame.

amc first hourly support at 0.7005/10. A big clue for a dollar reprieve will be if dollaryen can move above 108.40.....but I am expecting it to come off 2 big figs tomorrow.

Sydney Alimin 15:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
B747: looks like someone need to mention the magic word ;)

quito_valdez @yahoo 15:42 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 14:06 GMT July 1, 2004
ref: gbp and yen..no, sorry, I stay away from yen pairs entirely. Quindex likely or other HK based trader pros would know. I never see Japanese posters here...why is that? You are most welcome too, you know! This forum is lopsided without you!!

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
biscuit boy// i mentioned a few days back that i get the commitment of buyers and sellers... this can change in a couple minutes.... and so will the figure i get as an end result.

just observe for some time and then provide some feedback as we go along.

my explanation: you got a magnet on either side of a needle the needle will go towards the side that has stronger pulling power..... thereby alerting me to the fact as to who is stronger at that time...

GL

ny amc 15:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
biscuit......where is support now for aud/usd

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
in with a small JPY long.

Bandung Dewan 15:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd buy at 1.2110 GL

USA Biscuit Boy 15:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe how can one calculate the number of buyers and sellers at a given time? And isn't it trading size that counts not the number of participants....e.g. 2-3 big sellers can easily push a price down even if there are 50 smaller buyers with smaller combined orders?

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 05:33 GMT July 1, 2004

Naturally if there is a higher ratio of sellers your wrong to go buying unless of course you have sure knowledge from reliable sources on the direction of things. It's a nice edge to have while day trading...

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
been holding GBP EUR CHF since last night and they are just starting to show a slight profit.

Short EUR and GBP

Long CHF.

JPY missed the signal last evening.

Calabash TarHeel 14:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
houston st 14:39 GMT July 1, 2004
Thanks st, I really do hope it dries up for you guys in Tx. Nice here now. Mosquitos are here but not a huge prolem. It will get hot and humid here as the summer goes on, like a steam bath unless you are on the beach with a good breeze going, which is where I am a lot of the time now.
Maybe your fireworks won't be soggy afterall. Happy 4th to Ya!

USA Biscuit Boy 14:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st aud/usd broke important upside resistance at 0.7030.....time to explore the upper range now 0.70-0.72.....a break of 0.6950 would negate this.

London AKA 14:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
one thing that i am almost 90% sure is that european stocks are DEAD. i am massive short ftse100 from 4510. target 4160 - as a third wave.

Nottingham 14:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
kiwi...all sorts of muck between 6420 and 6435...unlikely, but if it is able to clear that zone then 6465 should be expected before the rollover...gl gt

houston st 14:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:33 GMT--nice one...the oz has been very stubborn today and most would rather sell it than own it..good luck with it.

London AKA 14:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs: i am a bit confused medium term... the rise from 103 to 114 is a very clear five, that conforms to pretty much every textbook example... the question is, whether it is a "C" of the a-b-c from 105 to 112 (a) from 112 to 103 (b) and then c to 115, or is it a 1 of an impusle to highs beyond 125? so far looking like the latter... (i mean highs to 125+) but right now i think we go to about 105.50, as this is an equality target of a pattern of corrective waves from the top...
a bit concerned right now about usd/jpy not going into a sell-off mood, seems reluctant to go either way. bodes well with wave 4 personality though... patience... ;-)

houston st 14:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 14:36 GMT--same to you..hope you have a good one..not sure on aud/usd..looks like it wants to move higher..no sure bets in this market..looks like our rain may be going away soon..then we only have to deal w/ 100% humidity and giant swarms of mosquitos..lol..happy Fourth to you and yours.

Bah Bahrain1 14:37 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Seems some one on the down side on the OZ???

Livingston nh 14:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - tomorrow's number is the earnings numbers inside the payroll report - will the earnings confirm the "wage and salary" number reported in Personal Income release (+8% annual)?? - despite Chairman Feelgood's reassurance of the transitory nature of recent inflation a steady rise in wages might even get his attention

Nottingham is right about talk of a less than expected jobs number BUT the seasonal adjustments (weak numbers of last two years) should help

Calabash TarHeel 14:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well folks startng my weekend early, throwing in the towel. closed two aud/$ shorts avg .7012 at .7010,
closed two $/cad longs avg 1.3295 closed 1.3315
closed 1 nzd short .6370 closed.6400
Might be premature in this, but I am ready for a long peaceful weekend with family and friends.
Wishing everyone here a great weekend.
Take Care and Good Luck.

Bah Bahrain1 14:35 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
London, AKA(13.25GMT)/// Many Thanks my frnd, do you see this happening today or during the nextfew days pls? GL.

USA Biscuit Boy 14:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bought aud/usd at 0.7008.....looking for above 0.71...gl and gt.

Sydney Alimin 14:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
aud is getting hammered now

Haifa ac 14:27 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
$yen on the precipice right now

Nottingham 14:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
ny amc...you are going to here the exact opposite elsewhere if you look hard enough>>>that dollar at risk even if payroll strong
personally think dollar equally well positioned to run either side but risk for payrolls number may be on the downside; hearing this more and more as the week has gone by...gl gt

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 14:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good evening..

Zorro..would love too...(Its only a game..with smile if tonight...)
Roumeli..
Pisteuo pos pame gia teliko..alla na thimase pame kai gia kana mpanaki;) in case ...

Euro : as long we stay above 1.2140/50 ..i like it..
$/CHF ...as long is under 1.27++ ..i like it for under 1.20

GL..
GT..
By
nk

Nottingham 14:22 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax...not much downside from here imo...2110 at a stretch otherwise 30's would be an achievement...this mkt has one eye on tomorrow and the other on the holiday imo...gl gt

Stockholm za 14:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.... Keep reading the sell-side A. and you will censored ..
ps..Investing in any market, including Foreign Exchange, does involve a substantial risk and can result in significant losses &/or gain....

hk revdax 14:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone make some inspired guesses as to how low Euro could drop to before close? TIA

ny amc 14:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
DOLLAR: With the Fed decision and Japanese Tankan report out of the way, FX players have turned their focus to Friday's non-farm payroll release (MNI's median analysts' estimate +250,000) Despite the dollar's lackluster performance on Thursday, a strong payroll report could prompt a new wave of dollar buying, analysts say. Barbara Rockefeller of Rockefeller Treasury Services says a 300,000/+ number will "instantly trigger the idea of 50 bps in August." "This is dollar-favorable, especially in the context of the euro, but also the pound, since the BOE may be contemplating no move in July, and the yen, since the Tankan by itself doesn't hasten the pace of the BOJ rate change," she says. Steve Pearson of HBOS Treasury Services says, "If we continue to see payroll prints of recent ilk, then the bigger, 50 caliber, gun will be wheeled out, Presidential election or not." Wed's Fed statement leaves the dollar set to rally "quite aggressively" on the "first sign of robust economic growth," he adds. MNI

DXB Maldine 14:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Afternoon!
EUR/GBP any takes?Is it ever gonna move down....
want it crashing today:)
GL

Goes (NL) B747 14:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
quito_valdez,

Good afternoon to you!

Are you familier with GBP/JPY?

GT

GENEVA FHR 14:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM 61.1

Global-View 13:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Tks

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 13:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
update city info

Global-View 13:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
chr,nc svi, we are asking you to spell out Charlotte so in the future, no one has to guess where you are located.

chr,nc svi 13:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy : Thanks for the word.. gl,gt

quito_valdez at yahoo 13:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I note on the "general incline" of the 30 day eur/usd chart, every 6 days we've completed a 150 pip cycle, & every 24 hrs on the average there's a "mini cycle" of 80+- pips. Now we're in the midrange for another "mini cycle" peak likely seeking 1.22xx again today. Going on the above, & drawing support & resistance lines from date 6/13 to present, this Monday-Tuesday may bring another nice short from 1.2250 to support of 1.2030. So much for charting. Geopoliticals don't effect the charts much lately & news has had a buffered effect so the above may likely be of strategy value. I really like the 30 day chart for this overall snapshot.

van Gecko 13:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Cad..
the Goose had level shifted down below the 3 month range.. 1.34 should now cap any retracements while 1.30 is waiting as the next stop on its mid term merry go South journey..
bottom picking contras could paid a few piking pips (1.36/37 is now a distant memory), but its less risky (avoid un-expected diving accidents) & the payout is much better to be a patient SOB'er & sell blips on approach to 1.34..
have a nice flight to 1.30..
Cheerios..

manila stubbs 13:27 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
London AKA 13:25 GMT July 1, 2004
i have same position as you. do you see usdjpy even lower in medium term? TIA

London AKA 13:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain: think usd/jpy goes to 106.50 area. done a very corrective rise in a double zigzag, and an impulsive fall from 109.00 has made 4 waves so far. given as wave 3 is almost equal to wave 1, wave 5 should be extended (yen likes extended fifths)... that targets 106.50-30 area...

i am short from 108.20

chr,nc svi 13:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 12:26 GMT July 1, 2004
chr,nc svi 12:21 GMT July 1, 2004 (and others). Please take the time to include a recognizable location when posting a message. There is a "save" feature so you only need to take the time to do it once.


Thanks my info is saved, how recognizable should it be?

Hong Kong Qindex 13:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:57 GMT June 28, 2004
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.3719 and the critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3444 - 1.3535. Initially the market is going to consolidate around the critical level and the odds are good that it will move ahead and tackle the weekly cycle upper barrier at 1.3673 // 1.3719. The lower barrier is located at 1.3306 // 13352. The upper barrier is expected at 1.3673 // 1.3719. The market rhythm is represented by 92 pips (k=0.009199) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.3352 - 1.3719. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of taking a long position if the market is trading above 1.3398).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.3260* - 1.3306 // 1.3352* - 1.3398 - (1.3444* - 1.3490 - 1.3535*) - 1.3581 - 1.3627* - 1.3673 // 1.3719* ... 1.3811* ...

Bne bkk 13:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Oops, cut and reverse! + short dol/yen for 107. Goodnight all!

quito_valdez at yahoo 13:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP//...yes but your eur/usd short for 1.2140 came in early this morning I see, so score one more 4 U. I figured it would find support back at the high 1.2000's by mid day today but I guess we're in for limited range plays today.

bkk cad 13:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Cable: 30 min quazi evening star doji good for move back to today's low. (I commit ALL my work to the Lord, Amen!).

Dallas GEP 13:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
YEP AMC. my target is .6985 short term

ny amc 12:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...........I just shorted aud/usd at .7034. think it ducks its head to .6980 again

Dallas GEP 12:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
NO problem AMC. I missed on the CAD call, I didn't think it woould short below 1.3310 BUT I do think it is still on it's way back up towards 1.35, I helped a friend of mine with his cad longs by putting a stop @ 1,3240, BUT I wasn't quick enough to edit my stop and I got stopped out. Aussie shorts still working tho,

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like we are going to be in this bloody tight range for eur/usd until hopefully tomorrow�s news comes out. Upper T/L is around 1.2230-40 with good resistance around 1.2200-10. Lower T/L is at 1.2070-80 with good support at 1.2120-30 for the moment and now back to sleep. GL GT

Boca Raton 12:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, what do you think of the Canadian unit now?

Global-View GVI 12:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 12:31 GMT July 1, 2004
351K vs rev 350K

ny amc 12:42 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas..........I am sorry I wrote down yesterday your call on usd/cad and wrote the wrong price. i had your call at 1.3229 but i see it should have been 1.3329. Please disregard my last post because in hindsight it looks like I was being a wise censored and it was me who screwed up the prices. I really do look forward to your post and do not want to come off like a jerk.. once again my last post was sincere but my prices were wrong

USA Biscuit Boy 12:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
chr,nc svi 12:21 GMT July 1, 2004

Unless there is very good US data beyond expectations excellent odds aud and nzd will take a stab at 0.71 and 0.65 respectively this week.

BGD PS 12:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   

Anyone have jobless data please?

melbourne farmacia 12:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP - traded mate @ 6:40

ny amc 12:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...Gep.....nice call again so far on usd/cad....you have been hitting'em straight lately. keep them coming, great job

DXB Maldine 12:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone feels the USD/CAD cud come back to 1.3400 levels?Save me:(

Bah BAHRAIN1 12:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Frnds, Good day to you all, Hope all fine with you....
Looking for $YEN view pls?

Good luck to you all.

Chicago YM 12:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
chr,nc = Charlotte, North Carolina?

Global-View 12:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
chr,nc svi 12:21 GMT July 1, 2004 (and others). Please take the time to include a recognizable location when posting a message. There is a "save" feature so you only need to take the time to do it once.

Dallas GEP 12:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I saw a spike down to 1.3250 momentatrily on usd/cad HAD to be BAD feed?????

chr,nc svi 12:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
good day all, any word on aud$ and Nzd$ gl & gt

Nottingham 12:17 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
some bits n pieces...

from last night's statement we derive that the Fed is equally willing to call off the show as well as step on the accelerator...this will have an effect of polarising dollar reaction to A list events

yesterday's weaker than expected Chicago PMI has triggered lowering of forecasts for June manf. ISM (due out later today)...there isn't a great deal of correlation between the two as far as anomalies (which PMI is being described as) are concerned and since the market is certainly looking for a pullback to around 61, a positive surprise of any kind should help the dollar react more positively than would be expected

gl gt

Porto PJT 12:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Pd cumino, your eur/nok views please.tia.

Spr Noods 12:07 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
selling Oz 0.7065 tight stop 0.7090
good nite & may your team win the next match

Nottingham 11:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
lol Spr...Greek team perfect example of your new phrase...let's hope passion wins out over organisation tonight

Spr NoodyG 11:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
laowen no need to thank or repeat the message
caveat emptor rules learnt a new phrase during the current european soccer games ball is round meaning all even bets?

GVI john 11:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB unch no surprise

Livingston nh 11:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
long USD/CHF at 1.2528 -- looking for another test of the 55 da ema (July "better be better" than June)

hk revdax 11:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Buying $/CAD today is like swimming against currents ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:31 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Porto PJT 11:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
True, hope last much more time.

Roumeli anka 11:15 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
yep

Plovdiv Gotin 11:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
1.2531/36/47/54?

EU ZORRO 11:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 11:01....I never had seen such hapiness in this country....

Roumeli anka 11:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Gotin...12540-12550 if seen with stops above 2575

Porto PJT 11:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 10:53 , happy days around here......

Bruxville Jim 10:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Exotic Barrier at 0.7050, rolls off tomorrow.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:56 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Anka/Thanks and where do you see sell enteries?

EU ZORRO 10:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...

..."Hope I can play the last game against you"....

Prague jv 10:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas . the very short timefrime move on to the 1.3360 level give you false sence of usd/cad comming on correction move from its broad down trend . ( hr.chart )
yesterday stockholm za mentioned and reminded me to trade what is , not what we thinging happen and todays trading is more relaxing for me .

GO CZECHs, go get the Greeks !!!! :))

Helsinki iw 10:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Odds are that the Greek will Czech out of the tournament today. Personally off to always lovely Crete for a vacation, so good trading all.

Roumeli anka 10:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin ...
my idea is for 1.2360 to test the bottom trendline

Plovdiv Gotin 10:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Some ideas about $/SF mates? TIA.

Nottingham 10:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
dallas, mkt was short of cad into the election whilst in general well long of others vs dollar...throw in some playskool techs and you get your mini avalanche...but as I say, system o/s will kick in around 1.32>>>haven't seen that since last year...gl gt

Bruxville Jim 10:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, seems that a bunch of multibillionaires are right now moving from US to Canada - and taking their capital with them...

Dallas GEP 10:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Well this is a pure CAD play can't really explain it

Dallas GEP 10:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hmm... must have certainly missed something on USD/CAD guys. Gave back all gains on gbp/jpy on this one.

BGD PS 10:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:27 GMT July 1, 2004

Gep, Maybe better to watch 233 daily SMA then 200

Roumeli anka 10:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Saloniko...
Yep, today is the turn of the sirens of EUR to sing their songs :)
Pame gia teliko ?

Nottingham 10:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...clean take of 200 day sma...not as certain as it may appear (close below it) as historically pair takes on average 1.75-2 days but that aisde, anything around 3200 makes pair o/s (no such signals since 2003...gl gt

Dallas GEP 10:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GD it...lost my cad longs stopped out. Bummer looks like stop run., Still in AUSSIE shorts

Cairo AG 10:31 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
SALONIKO: I wish ur team ALL THE BEST TODAY...
Its not gonna be that easy i know, but hopefully the GREECE team will win.

GL & GT

Bruxville Jim 10:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:27 GMT // Maybe better don't throw your money in C$ hole...

slv sam 10:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:51 GMT May 6, 2004
closed all positions...liquidity raised used to sell $/cad here at 1.3760...will sell only at 1.28..ready to wait for months to realize profits!.GT

I hope my target will be realised this month!...GT

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 10:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Dont lose the Football Game today ..Vive la Grece!

Euro GOOO..
sr

Greece GO GO GOOOOOoooo!

nk

Dallas GEP 10:27 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD should find support now @ 1.3280

hk 10:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
george, & don't forgot all those bears gone hiding in the caves

Dallas GEP 10:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Very Walt Whitman like...George. I like.

Vilnius george 10:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:05 GMT
yeap, for you its better to see the whole picture from such highs , then for us (buyers). we can only see ground under foot, and mountains above the sky ....

NY Raider19 10:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Information //// My post is more a general comment. I just wonder how one can expect to make money in markets when they can not collect the most basic, most widely known information. Look in the archive yesterday, how many asking about FOMC this and FOMC that? My response is to try to get people to help themselves and learn how to fish and hunt rather than ask for food.

Beijing Laowen 10:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Spr NoodyG 05:28 GMT July 1, 2004
Aud cheap trade buy 0.6965 stop 0.6940
and hope they blast those stops 0.7030s

Excellent Call on Aussie!

Saihat 10:07 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I HOPE MY POST WILL STOP FOR AT LEAST 6 MONTHS

0.7118 0.7139
0.7058 0.7068
0.7020 0.7024

0.6952 0.6960
0.6937 0.6947

0.6853 0.6857
0.6816 0.6826

Bucuresti C.S. 10:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Oh, by the way, what is tankan?

Dallas GEP 10:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE .7036

rom nick 09:56 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
raider19// I saw people helping each other on this forum,exchanging information. haven t u?

HK RF@ 09:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like euro likes to make approx. 1.2265.

Dallas GEP 09:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
OK now in on usd/cad long @ 1.3325 off an order. This could be an EXCELLANT long with 100-150 pips potential. 1.3310 moving average 200 day on dailies

bombay 09:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q

thanks in advance

NY Raider19 09:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Information //// Whatever, information is money. It takes diligence and time and effort to collect it. Believe it or not, you can get a lot of it for free on the internet.
Most government institutions have internet sites.
Most major financial newswires, general newswires and newspapers offer some version of their services for free on the internet -- try major internet portals
Several of the brokers here offer economic calendars or news for non-clients
etc., etc., etc.

I can understand questions re Swiss data that is very hard to track, but there is a constant onslaught of when is the FOMC decision? Is the FOMC today? What is the Tankan? When is the next major event that everyone has been watching for days/weeks/months, etc? -- Why s/ people here just feed those answers consistently -- and reward the laziness of others? LOL!

bombay 09:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q

has eur/usd and gbp/usd bottomed out ?

rom nick 09:35 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
thanx Raider19 // I am new here so don t make jokes.

NY Raider19 09:27 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB Decision //// rom nick, I am making a leap here, but I assume that you have internet access, so here is a hint: Try http://www.ecb.int --- you will be amazed at what is on the internet these days!

hk ab lazy 09:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
oilman, aud short sl I think should be moved to .7038.

hk ab lazy 09:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// Try my best.

hk revdax 09:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 08:04 GMT//End of July...OK?

Gen dk 09:17 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Goes (NL) B747 08:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
"DJ German May Retail Sales Down 1.5% From April - Bundesbank "


GT

rom nick 08:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know if ECB will announce rates today?thank you

Gen dk 08:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Goes (NL) B747 08:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
closed long GBP/JPY @ 196.18 for 17pips

will be sidelined for the next 3-4 hours

Nottingham 08:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, mkt caught a bit short cad (elections)...gl gt

hk ab lazy 08:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, the moves look to me ridiculous.....
Let's see what "will" develope afterwards.

Nottingham 08:11 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
eurcad + usdcad both approaching 200 day sma

hk ab lazy 08:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I will soon got enough for my phuket trip thru the eur/aud shorts.

hk ab lazy 08:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
btw, the TV just said those socialist estimated the number to be 200K (my number mentioned yesterday!)

hk ab lazy 08:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, could you gimme a "deadline"? ok?

London AKA 08:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
stop at 108.75

London AKA 08:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
usdjpy: sell at the market, target 106.65
good morning!

Gold Coast martin 08:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening.....the euro and aud has re-assumed its downward bias and currently trying to breach resistance levels of 12080 and 6950 .Yesterdays fed non-event did provide a positive..it created new levels of entry for both currencies..so as posted yesterday traders who entered at 12195and 6990 will see positive return in the next 3 trading sessions....so for now range trading of 30-40 pip increments is the order of the day but remember the range trading should be with a downward bias as this trend is still evident...g/t

Goes (NL) B747 08:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
long GBP/JPY @ 196.01 for 40-50pips

GT

Sydney Alimin 07:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
B747: sorry mate, i dont follow gbp/jpy and thus no idea at all....i only saw you mention it quite often recently

yup no worries for holland, they did their best against the host, some magic from maniche did the trick that sent them home...anyway, as far as euro 2004 is concerned, my last ammunition is with the czechs tonite

HK Kevin 07:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 07:34 GMT, no estimated figure reported by TV stations, but the 6 dualway lanes of Hennessy Road and Queensway are all full of people. People are still rushing to the start point at Victoria Park where the 6 playgrounds can accomadate 110,000 people.
My wife just wake up, I need to dress up for a night cruise.

hk revdax 07:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy //Would you like to arrange another dinner party before Q leaves for Oz and I Canada?

hk ab lazy 07:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// Told ya that I don't want to join.
Manipulation by the mass media (appledaily) and rubbish party (Democrat, big mouth and useless)......

I am not those easily manipulated U-students.....

Goes (NL) B747 07:35 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Alimin,

Did we ride short GBP/JPY together?
Regarding Holland, we did the very best with actually winning only one match - so I am not too sad.

Please share with me your views/opinions for GBP/JPY.

GT

hk revdax 07:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 07:24 //How many people are there, roughly speaking? HK AB might have gone there.

MONACO OGA 07:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 01/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2160), 70 pips higher than yesterday opening. The pair rebounded on 1,2065 in the morning session before extending gains in the US session on weaker than expected Chicago PMI index (high 1,2193). As expected, FOMC raised rate by 25bp to 1,25%. In its post-meeting statement, FOMC declared they would follow a measured pace on interest rate increases in order to curb inflation. EUR/USD printed 1,2205 overnight before retracing to 1,2150 and stabilizing to current level. We favour some range trading for today (1,2060-1,2230) and will closely monitor future US employment data that should determine timing of next 25 bp rate hike (our guess is September meeting).The big picture hasn't changed, we still believe the market will hover inside 1,1750-1,2350 for some time.

Data out today:

UK CIPS manufacturing June expected 55,4 08.30 GMT
Eurozone PMI manufacturing June expected 55,0 08.00 GMT
Eurozone unemployment rate May expected 9,0% 09.00 GMT
ECB monetary policy decision expected unchanged at 2% 11.45 GMT
US initial jobless claims expected 342K 12.30 GMT
US construction spending May expected 0,7% 14.00 GMT
US ISM manufacturing June expected 61,5 14.00 GMT

Gold up 2 at 394,50, with WTI August at 36,86.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (108,10). The pair continued its recovery against JPY yesterday, took out 109,20 japanese car maker offers and tested 109,50 where some option knock-out was related (high 109,58). Overnight a much better TANKAN corporate sentiment took the market by surprise and triggered a wave of JPY buying sending the pair down to 107,90 where USD support emerged. We are still trading inside 107-112 range. For today we see support below 108 and resistance around 108,70.
EUR/JPY currently 131.50, still stable despite overnight spike to 133,30, we still favour the upsides with 132 equilibrium point and next resistance at 133,20. Support around 131 today.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8170), recovered yesterday but met selling interest at 1,8220 (200 period weighted moving average on the hourly chart). GBP looks to be recovering from last two days turmoil. 1,80-1,85 has been containing the market since the end of May, and we still believe playing the range remains a valid strategy. Support for the day at 1,8120 with resistance at 1,8220.
EUR/GBP (0,6690). The cross was rejected at 0,6720 yesterday. We remain neutral for the time being and expect to see 0.6650-80 again soon.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

HK Kevin 07:24 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:29 GMT, the demonstration has begun at 14:45 HK time. The 6 playgounds of Victoria Park are all fully occupied.

socal mar 07:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
look at the euro dropping. that is the impact of a manipulated market.

st. pete islander 07:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:00 GMT

The Euro, Sharon Stone, Dunnigan and the Thrust Method. Okay, I've got it. Thanks.

LAX-LGB SNP 07:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 03:16 GMT July 1, 2004
since ya tempted me, i am going to watch a ripped copy now

hk revdax 07:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Look at how Euro is dropping. That is the impact of gravity.

LAX-LGB SNP 07:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
adding shorts on eurjpy & gbpjpy

Sydney Alimin 07:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax: haha right, celestial technical analysis...that's perfect

Haifa ac 07:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Euro. At best a trading range. THerefore, theoretically speaking (that is measuring carefully the number of buyers and sellers every 5 minutes) it should test the bottom of last month at 117.59 sometimes in July. If it goes lower it creates one of Gann's reliable rules of reversal (2 bars in the opposite direction). Trouble with Range behavior is, of course, that other than the boundaries---you Level of Knowledge (LOK) is rather low and market has full right to be as choppy as it likes. July is also a hot month. This year it also contains 17 of tamuz and Ninth of Av. Woe.

hk revdax 06:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Guys...just watch for the turn in the market when gravity pulls...

Ina co'z 06:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello all !

Range Trade for Cable : (R) 1.8335 -- 1.8120-1.8063 (S)

gl/gt.....!

Minnesota Mark 06:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:40 GMT July 1, 2004 -- I'll relate that one to my wife and see what she thinks of "diminished returns".. Or, better yet I won't! lol

st. pete islander 06:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
revdax, okay .... I surrender. But no farmer's daughter is safe, IMHO. Did you get your border card back yet?

hk revdax 06:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 06:38 GMT //When gravity pulls on the frontal development of a woman, Euro/$ will be pulled down as well. This is called celestial technical analysis...hahaha

hk revdax 06:42 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 06:39 //not necessarily. Haifa ac was simply propagating the imperialistic esthetic value...

st. pete islander 06:42 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 06:28 GMT July 1, 2004

Or, just want to practise .... yes. Except for revdax, that is.

Chambery FR JFB 06:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
sorry for previous post, typo :-(
Just wanted to note that daily, hourly and 30' POC are all three at the same value : 1.2170. Surely we won't sit here for too long, there will be some distribution soon, I would say to the downside first (am short from that level and a little higher since yesterday)
Happy trades :-)

hk revdax 06:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 06:35 //You obviously have not had enough sh't from women who fully exploit their market value before the cycle of diminishing rate of return sets in on them ...lol

st. pete islander 06:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:31 GMT July 1, 2004

Hahaha .... revdax you were always chasing the young farm leggys and you will never change, I bet.

Chambery FR JFB 06:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
G'morning :-)
Fwiw, just noticing tha

Sydney Alimin 06:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
and what's sharon stone supposed to do with fx? LOL

Minnesota Mark 06:35 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:31 GMT July 1, 2004 -- Hey now, be a little more sensitive about that age thing.

hk revdax 06:31 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 06:28 //i don't. she is getting old and her body shape is increasingly subject to gravity. i prefer the younger ones around.

hk revdax 06:29 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Qindex //Is there any demonstration in HK today? What is the number expected to show up?

Haifa ac 06:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 05:47 // I think there is not a man alive who does not want to impregnate Sharon Stone.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 06:12 GMT - EUR/USD : It is still range bound.

Goes (NL) B747 06:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:53 GMT July 1, 2004

Good morning Dr. Q,

Do you mean that your forecasts do not share the EUR bull bias?

Minnesota Mark 06:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Just once this week I'd like to enter a trade and not have the pair use my entry point as the ok to shoot 20 pips the opposite direction.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Get on the box Islander ;-)

Brisbane L 05:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Autralia Channel Nine's Sunday program set to air 40-minute cover story, The Unathorized Mark Latham. Australian newspaper's media section says Sunday has come up with report said to be "explosive," revealing "another violent incident in Latham's past." Before becoming leader of center-left opposition in late 2003, Latham's profile was shaped by event where he broke taxi driver's arm during fare dispute. Latham has told reporters in Sydney: "I've got nothing to worry about in my past particularly." PM Howard sure to be tuned in on Sunday morning as he mulls election date
ABC

st. pete islander 05:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 05:44 GMT July 1, 2004

Haifa .... is any one of them Sharon Stone? :o)

Haifa ac 05:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 05:37 // I prefer the pregnancy test:
3 women are in their 6th month. 3 women are not pregnant.
ergo: we have 6 women in the third month.

NY Raider19 05:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
And with that, I say JPY- Buyers 50% vs. Sellers 50%!

NY Raider19 05:38 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Ganjaland LOL //// ok that was me posting. I encourage any of you who find it worthwhile to spend some time here to spend some time using the Archive tool. I think you will find it time well spent. LOL/GT/GL

Goes (NL) B747 05:37 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 05:33 GMT July 1, 2004
Good morning,

I love the way you present the point, reminds me the following:

49 people earn USD 2K a month and one person makes USD 5M per month, what is the average income of those 50 people ?!

GT

Ganjaland LOL 05:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Buyers vs. Sellers - censored I love that archive thing!

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:31 GMT June 25, 2004
Debatable Comment- You don't need to even look at the charts when you have this type of flow info infront of you, although the info can change in a couple minutes.

Do brokers have this type of info in front of them and whom do they depend on for this info?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:16 GMT June 25, 2004
EUR- Buyers 3% Sellers 25%

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:15 GMT June 25, 2004
EUR- Buyers 25% Sellers 4%

CHF- Buyers 24% Sellers 2%

JPY- Buyers 24% Sellers 4%

GBP- Buyers 9% Sellers 13%

Caribbean! Rafe... 06:48 GMT June 24, 2004
ATM= at the moment.......

LOL!

Caribbean! Rafe... 06:39 GMT June 24, 2004
EUR- buyers sellers =lly matched ATM.

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:42 GMT June 24, 2004
AB// GBP- Buyers 9% Sellers 22%.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:43 GMT June 24, 2004
shorunmu// Make decisions depending on the level of risk your willing to undertake. one minute there could be a high percentage of buyers compared to sellers next minute it's the total opposite..


Do your techs and let my projections just work as any other trading tools... you cannot trade blindly on just these alone.

I mean no offense so don't take any.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:34 GMT June 24, 2004
Raven// go with the higher percentage of market participants but one thing to note and I am sure 98% of the people on this forum are well aware, is that the market players can change their perceptions within 2 minutes... eg. news driven transactions etc.

Haifa ac 05:33 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 05:19 GMT July 1, 2004
commitment of buyers or sellers.

for every 15.64 buyers there are 66.67 sellers.//
What has the number of buyers to do with buying power?
what if 15.64 represent 2 billion dollars and 66.67 represent 500 million dollars?

Spr NoodyG 05:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Aud cheap trade buy 0.6965 stop 0.6940
and hope they blast those stops 0.7030s

Bruxville Jim 05:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... // Are they jpy buyers or usd/jpy buyers??

Caribbean! Rafe... 05:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
commitment of buyers or sellers.

for every 15.64 buyers there are 66.67 sellers.

JPY
BUYERS SELLERS
15.64 66.67

GL.

Minnesota U-genius 05:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello, any comments on AUD/USD?, it looks like this pair is a little apart from cable and euro which gave a sell signal,
tia

Bruxville Jim 05:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
e.g., JPY means usd/jpy or jpy/usd? and what do those numbers show?

Bruxville Jim 05:05 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 04:57 GMT // Please explain your post in details;)

melbourne farmacia 05:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
QC WC - flat gbp at this stage... levels = 1.8011 - 1.8221 retrace points.

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
JPY BUYERS SELLERS
8.23 74.07

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thank you for your genorosity Q!

I was thinking along the same lines for EUR/USD and GBP/USD but the market is moving quite slow today!

Hong Kong Qindex 04:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 04:36 GMT - GBP/USD : I am bias that GBP/JPY and EUR/USD will move lower, so GBP/USD will follow the path.

QC WC 04:46 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Long Usd/yen at 107.95

QC WC 04:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Faramcia, are you already long? If not, waiting for
which levels? TIA

Singapore Sfx 04:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
farmacia - tks mate - good luck with it.

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q, would you able to point in the right direction where GBP/USD is concerned? will it go long or short... curiosity just getting the best of me atm.

melbourne farmacia 04:36 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sfx - still upside bias based on daily Ichimoku reading..

Hong Kong Qindex 04:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 04:21 GMT - You are welcome.

LAX-LGB SNP 04:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
just broke even on EUR$ shorts :-)
dr Q - many thanks for your generousity !

st. pete islander 04:13 GMT July 1, 2004
am also looking for a bigger place and was looking @ rates on eloan/bankrate's websites but there was hardly any change before/after sir Al's statement. SoCal may not be short on building materials but we are certainly short on space now. Just last month, new homes 3 blocks away were selling for $600k plus and the entire development was virtually sitting on the dockyard railway tracks

hk ab lazy 04:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp, eur/jpy and eur/chf finished their missions, now time to dive?

think the eur/jpy has surprised many "longers".....

melbourne farmacia 04:19 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 03:54 GMT July 1, 2004
Cheers... Will see what London plays @ retracement points..

Hong Kong Qindex 04:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 04:10 GMT - Cheers!

st. pete islander 04:13 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 03:31 GMT July 1, 2004
Not a pro ... definitely a senior. So ... Sure, an increase will add to the consumer debt and consumer debt is a growing mountain. But the cost of just about everything is going up at rates that far exceed a quarter point. Food, clothing, and shelter have been going up for quite some time. I read recently that some 64% of the US population makes $25K or less per year. Hard to buy stuff and things when it is all you can do to cover F,C, & S. Credit card interest has been rising for months. Housing markets are still booming. Commodity prices are up. Here in south Florida, construction is suffering a shortage of cement and steel and lumber. But, I keep asking what happens when there is no one with enough money to buy stuff and things anymore. Or, when no one can service their debt. What happens to the tax base when no one is able to earn and pay the tax bill. When is the last time you heard the word deflation? As for the quarter point .... today I locked in a quarter point drop in a mortgage rate two hours after Sir Alan did his thing. Interesting days. gl

Singapore Sfx 04:11 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia - any biases for which way the cbl range eventually breaks ? - tks.

Calabash TarHeel 04:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:58 GMT July 1, 2004
Hello Dr. Q. Music to my ears, should that occur, the Euro won't be traveling down that road alone either. Again, your words of wisdom are greatly appreciated.
Take Care

Caribbean! Rafe... 04:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I still got a short signal for GBP.. but not yet confirmed. I used to hate trading this pair because it's sometimes unpredictible and would unexpectedly turn.... but since recently it's been the most rewarding currency after CHF for me...

sydney dan 04:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
DR Q. Thank you very much.

Singapore Sfx 04:02 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
th 03:50 - Hi there - not been following it too much myself - but think that they got a bunch of the big guys approaching retirement next few seasons and not sure if sufficient backup in place... they seem like a somewhat unpredictable lot but still amazing how well they do despite the size of the country, domestic turmoil and of course all the Murali controversy ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:58 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
sydney dan 03:47 GMT - EUR/USD : The odds are in favour of taking a short position. The projected supporting level at 1.2047 - 1.2059 is likely to be challenged later today.

Singapore Sfx 03:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia - Hi mate ...

Kinda wierd but just posted this as part of a post on GVI just as you were probably posting this here ...

Maybe a couple of boundaries at 1.8006-1.8355 from a flag - but everything looks like a break lvl when one is in a range this long. So not too excited with them till we get there - when will look at the others and decide.

hk ab lazy 03:51 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Euraud is definitely volatile.

Ltn th 03:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sfx// Have'nt had much time to watch but the darwin test without muralitherin looks interesting. Ceylon may be a significant power in the coming year?

melbourne farmacia 03:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 03:32 GMT July 1, 2004
Hi - what's on your radar for Gbp/Usd today? .. 1.8000 - 1.8350 range play ? GT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I guess the most important thing for President Bush to do before the election is to control the price of Crude Oil below US$43. It is not easy to get re-elected if the price of gasoline is over US$2 on the day of election. The most powerful tool is to increase the rate if it is necessary.

sydney dan 03:47 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, where do you see EUR going today?

Calabash TarHeel 03:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 03:24 GMT July 1, 2004
Your dog sounds about like my cat, only signals I get from her is when her food dish is empty, she does like her food. Give her credit for one thing tho, she has been around longer than either of my wifes and yet to mention divorce.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:40 GMT July 1, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my daily cycle are ... // 107.57 - 107.94 - 108.31 // ... The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position.

KEN HOUSTON 03:34 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
going short now on aussie $

Singapore Sfx 03:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
If you mean weatherwise, Revdax, then yes - as hot as it usually is this time of year - and humid. A bit of rain this morning to ease the pressure but usually temporary that stuff..

LAX-LGB SNP 03:31 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
i have a question for the pros/seniors that might deign to respond

Today, the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation. But won't a higher interest rate add to the already burgeoning consumer debt and eventually add to the deficit ?

TIA everyone :-)

hk revdax 03:26 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx//Is Singapore hot? HK is very hot.

st. pete islander 03:24 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 03:21 GMT July 1, 2004

TarHeel, as I told OMIL .... he gulped down dinner and has been asleep in the corner ever since ..... but he usually wakes up about the time you do and begins to point. Or just to pee .... :o)

Singapore Sfx 03:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
cheers revdax - not gonna argue that.

hk revdax 03:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 03:20 //go in for 30 pips.

st. pete islander 03:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 03:09 GMT July 1, 2004

"Spirutually, China is bankrupt." Well, revdax, they aren't by themselves in that department. I will be very interested in what happens when they do allow their currency to float. Thanks for your comments. gt

Calabash TarHeel 03:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 03:01 GMT July 1, 2004
Good evening to you Islander. I am continuing to ride the aud and kiwi. Shorted the aud/$ .6985, shorted the nzd/$ .6370.
50 pip stops on both. Think those will ride out the London session. Probably take a nap and get up to see what it looks like around 3/4am. That's it for trades tonight.
Your dog sniffed out anything yet?

Ltn th 03:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Ideally, given the disasterous result to Oz of the RBA's consequitive .25% increases, the FED would like to wait 3 or four months to go again. Election timetable throws a spanner in the works. So, which way will they go? I suspect the latter because of the inherently highly inflationary effect of higher rates. But perhaps some may want that?
In terms of a longer term business cycle we seem to be at a point equivalent to 1951. The tactics of 1980 or 1990's are irrelevant to 2004. We need to reinforce and broarden our productive base. Chinas contribution to the consumption sector parallels this and suggests that 1.5 to 2.5% should be regarded as a normal range. RBA, Please take note.

Singapore Sfx 03:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Ok thanks Revdax - not sure I agree with that - thinking choppy back and forth (including false break for usd upside) before higher eur or lower usdchf later ... good luck.

hk revdax 03:17 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 03:14//a day in terms of time...

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
got lakshya... we are showing the movie this sunday... full house only 2 shows. not many sindhis here.

Bruxville Jim 03:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 03:08 GMT // Euroyen should retest 130.70/00 area at least.

LAX-LGB SNP 03:15 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe
chal rahela hai - saw Hum Tum ? am gonna see Lakshya next week

watching eurjpy/gbpjpy TANKan ;-) when gbp stops, time for eurgbp to go too - despite a bad start, this month went well so taking off inland for long weekend

Singapore Sfx 03:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
for how far on the downside Revdax ?

hk revdax 03:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sell Euro at mkt, risking today's top...???

Dallas GEP 03:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Adjusted limit buy on usd/cad to 1.3325 since 1.3319 was low today (bid)

hk revdax 03:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 03:03 //As a whole, China is better off now than the days under that anti-Marxist/reactionary Mao. Spirutually, China is bankrupt. But the world is better off with a vulgar than an ideological China.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
SNP// what's up yaar! =)

LAX-LGB SNP 03:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
any short eurjpy/gbpjpy targets ? TIA GL GT :-)

HKG SK 03:04 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
** Currency Trading Update **
1) Fed raised rate 1/4 % as market has expected and priced in, therefore it is considered a non event after the announcement yesterday. Words came out from the committe are all expected.

2) ISM data tonight is important, will expect good data therefore it will be $ positive

3) Unemployment figure on Friday, will expect 250,000-300,000 more jobs added anything more $ will put on wings and fly.

Euro/US$
1.2060 proved difficult to break and so is 1.2200. For the rest of the week short Euro at 1.2190 and TP at 1.2060.

US$/Chf
1.2460 - 1.2660

GT

st. pete islander 03:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 02:56 GMT July 1, 2004

Hello Revdex .... so is China a better place now as you see it? Or, does dollars and cents erode as it has in other places. Hope you are well and found your border pass. :o)

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
SELL signal for EUR confirmed. in @market price now.

st. pete islander 03:01 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 02:55 GMT July 1, 2004

Good Evening, TarHeel. Interesting observation .... what do you have in mind, if you don't mind the question. gt

hk revdax 02:56 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
When the British first came in contact with the Chinese during the time of Ching Dynasty, they were impressed by the memo system used by the Chinese bureaucracy and by the civil exam system in China. Thus they borrowed this part of civilization from the Chinese. Now the Chinese are learning this part 'back' from the British.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
gep you can check your mail now at hotmail..

Calabash TarHeel 02:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw: If the Cad should go long, strong from here, it won't be traveling alone. Imvho.
gl,gt

hk revdax 02:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 02:41//No! But it is safe to do so in Hong Kong. HK is now part of China so on that basis it is safe to demonstrate in *only* this part of China. The old people in Peking are very afraid of social instability. If anyone has any grievances against the government, he could do so by writing a memo or an intellectual analysis which is to be passed through the bureaucracy. The memos or analysis that are most likely read by people at the top are those writen by university professors, not by the grass-roots. In writing these memos, one should avoid the use of emotion-loaded words or phrases, and the content should be devoided of slogans and sentiments. Those old days of an 'ideological' China is gone. Now, China is a country of dollars and cents!

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:49 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
over here they demonstrate by blocking roads setting tyres on fire, putting refridgerators in the road and then burning car bodies as well.

not to forget firing big guns after the military and police...

sad world we live in. better places in the world.

UAE Oil man 02:44 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes jim, as long as there is no tanks around.

Bruxville Jim 02:41 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 02:31 GMT // Is it safe to participate in demonstrations in China?

Dallas GEP 02:37 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
WEll I will tell you this RE: usd/cad, I think there is very little chance of it going below that 200MA at 1.3310.

It could very well long from here

hk revdax 02:31 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 02:28 //But HK nt yesterday did very well by forecasting 1.3330 being the bottom where I should have taken profit. He is out there in the street of HK joining the anti-communist demonstration today and as a result is unable to comment on this CAD...LOL

UAE Oil man 02:30 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
No..stops 7021.

Bruxville Jim 02:28 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 02:23 GMT// It has been tough lately to forecast $/C$ bottoms... But there's got to be a >100 pips retracement this week.

Bruxville Jim 02:25 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
//UAE Oil man 01:10 GMT July 1, 2004
Sell AUD 6982.//

Stops above 0.7050?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:24 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
yes they looks like shorts... but am waiting for exact confirmation of this. i ain't entering until i get a model break.

hk revdax 02:23 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD seems to have touched the bottom of today.

Views?

London 02:21 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Strength in Australia retail sales suggests consumers cashed up ,still upbeat, suggesting economy ticking along nicely appears more than likely next move in rates will be upward before end-year.
CBA chief economist Michael Blythe.

Bruxville Jim 02:20 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 02:18 GMT // Eur and Gbp shorts seem like ATM's to you?:))

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP...EUR lining up for sells.... ATM but this could change am waiting for confirmation of sell signals.

CHF still not clear... seems to be stuck ATM.

Dallas GEP 02:16 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
dallasgep RAFE

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:12 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
conveyance or dxxx_ [email protected]? which one at hotmail?

Dallas GEP 02:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
RAFE....I have hotmail now with same handle YAHOO I can't get in

Dallas GEP 02:08 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
No problem!!!

OK I now have a buy order waiting on USD/CAD @ 1.3320 with stop @ 1.3290 and TP @ 1.3500. There is a 200 period moving average @ 1.3310 on the daily charts so my order MAY not get filled.

QC WC 01:59 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Think current levels good to pick up Usd/yen.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP// do you still use the same address at yahoo the one i last e-mailed you at some time ago?

if you have changed it can you mail me with your new address.

TIA

Sin HS 01:55 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:52 GMT July 1, 2004
The BEST risk Reward POSSIE RIGHT now is probably usd/cad LONG at market stop below figure...150 pip potential IMO

Thanks for the tips.

Dallas GEP 01:52 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
The BEST risk Reward POSSIE RIGHT now is probably usd/cad LONG at market stop below figure...150 pip potential IMO

London 01:48 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian retail trade rose 0.5% in May after flat showing in April; in line with Dow Jones Newswires survey. Also, job vacancies +26.3% March-May from quarter before. rts

Sin HS 01:48 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Q, I was thinking of long dol/cad. Thanks again.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:45 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sin HS 01:43 GMT - USD/CAD : I am expecting it to trade above 1.33 this week. See details in my weekly cycle analysis.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 01:40 GMT - You are welcome.

Sin HS 01:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Q, any thoughts on cad? TIA.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:43 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY : There is no change in view and both are expected to go down.

Dublin CK 01:40 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Thks Dr Q once again.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:26 GMT June 26, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 105.66. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 108.04 - 109.63. It is likely that we are going to have a range market between 105.66 - 109.63 initially. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 104.86 // 105.66. The upper barrier is expected at 110.43 // 111.22. The market rhythm is represented by 159 pips (k=1.58913) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 104.86 - 111.22 (The odds are in favour of taking a short position at the upper barrier of 110.43 // 111.22. In the mean time it is okay to maintain a long position as long as it is above 107).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 104.86* // (105.66) - 106.45* - 107.25 - 108.04* - 108.84 - 109.63* - 110.43 // 111.22* ...

London 01:32 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone having problem logging on ?

UAE Oil man 01:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Let's go Kangooroo hopping ...Yoohooo.

UAE Oil man 01:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Sell AUD 6982.

Dublin CK 01:10 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Howdea All,

Has Dr Q given any direction after the Fed's decision?

hk revdax 00:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
tampa lw 00:50 //Euro might have a slightly downward biase today...imo.

USA Biscuit Boy 00:57 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Big stops below 108......only a matter of time IMO. GL and GT.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:54 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
I'll post signals for each pair as they come.. JPY is already done... CHF EURO and GBP left.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:53 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
TW// if your long close and wait for another signal if in profit take your profit and be happy for now...

tampa lw 00:50 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any thoughts on eur/usd I am long from 2186 for hours but it's not going anywhere.

hk revdax 00:39 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
HK nt//I should have listened to your forecast on $/CAD. Are you joining the demonstration today?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:18 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
sunstate// cheers mate.

brisbane sunstate 00:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 23:58
Rafe this site has all the info on tankan
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/tk/tk.htm#0101

Bruxville Jim 00:14 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
BoJ @108?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:09 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
euro banging on resistance.

London 00:06 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Edges Above 1.2200 As Tankan Gives USD Offered Tone

Spr Spr 00:03 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at Japanese manufacturers are the most confident since the nation's asset-price bubble burst in 1991, helped by surging demand for their products from China and the U.S., the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed.

The quarterly index of confidence among large manufacturers rose to 22 in June from 12 in March, the central bank said in Tokyo. The median forecast of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 17. Confidence among large service companies rose to 9. A reading above zero means optimists outnumber pessimists.

jakarta r4v3n 00:00 GMT July 1, 2004 Reply   
what is the capex in the tankan??? tia