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Forex Forum Archive for 07/06/2004

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Brisb L 23:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
RBA likely on hold till early next year, says Macquarie Bank
RBA won't want to hike if house prices are falling; would risk much greater damage to economy
auspress

Goes (NL) B747 23:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 23:44 GMT July 6, 2004

As we are on the same timezon e I allow you to answer in my behalf :)


Good mroning...gl & gt

Bruxville Jim 23:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
B747, good night. Isn't it late now in Holland? Here in Latvia it is 2:49 AM already... good night...

Bruxville Jim 23:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 23:11 GMT // japanese money supply comes in at 23:50 gmt July 7, after 24 hrs 9 mins.

Sydney gvm 23:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
no change in aussie rates

Brisbane L 23:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
No rate hike

GVI john 23:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
RBA unchanged policy, as expected

GVI john 23:29 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks

Brisbane L 23:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Costello had lunch with RBA yesterday....Australian Treasurer Costello not expecting July rate hike; tells Sydney radio station monetary policy focused on inflation

Brisbane JM 23:27 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
John, yes 9.30am local

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes//
Tks for the link...
"Guta Bank is one of Russia's largest institutions, with reported assets of Rbs 34bn ($1.1bn) at the start of June...shut Moscow and St Petersburg branches during the day..said its cash machines and telephone banking service were temporarily shut" Guta's action raised concerns about the effect on other large banks, with fears that a run on deposits could trigger far broader problems within the country's fragile financial sector, rebuilt after Russia's August 1998 default.

This happened in Ecuador a couple years back, I got stung for $85K..37% of all depositors got shafted...soooooorry! Schidt happens.

Goes (NL) B747 23:11 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
23:30 GMT- JPN- Jun Money (M2+CD): within 20 minutes, or 24hrs and 30mins?

is [email protected] CD got the chance to move the market?


gt

Spotforex NY 23:10 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Web Fxperience.cjb.net - 9 big figure stop on that trade rec....wow.....deep pockets.

GVI john 23:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
JM- Could be. The double switch of clocks always messes me up. Cheers. 09:30 local time?

Brisbane L 23:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rate decision RBA 23.30GMT.

Gen dk 23:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes//
I agree, this single currency crap has got a real wicked shimmy to it. Death rattle. Let's hope we're wrong 'cause if it goes, opps...


Jay GVI...glance at yer Yahoo chatterbox amigo. Cake's done.

Bruxville Jim 23:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Web Fxperience.cjb.net 23:01 GMT // I'll rather buy your stops;)

Brisbane JM 23:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
John, actually in 1/2 hour from now 2330 GMT I think.

GVI john 23:01 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
01:30 GMT- AUS- Reserve Bank Decision

Web Fxperience.cjb.net 23:01 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
New trade Alert

LONG gbpchf @ market, target 2.3355, stop 2.2455

GT GL all

Pecs Andras 22:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Anybod yknows what time the RBA rate decision is due? TIA

Brisbane L 22:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Australia's RBA Expected On Hold

bkk cad 21:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/stg daily has made an evening star, perhaps another swing up for Euro above 1.23 before back down again to test a new low.
Night All

bkk Cad 21:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Like a PC, one has to upgrade :)

Brisbane L 20:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
bkk cad Dr. Who we had many a laugh with my friend Ldn Joe hope you are welll and it was a painless retirement for him good luck

bkk cad 20:52 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
yes, you have a good memory, K9 is retired.

Brisbane L 20:49 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
bkk cad is it ex Bne CAD with K9 ?

bkk cad 20:45 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Hourly: The reason cable help up here better than the euro was because of eur/stg selling.

Goes (NL) B747 20:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
paris jony:

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373524492


Russian banking !


gt

prague viktor 20:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim : a long answer,but think about oil.and china !!the EU need it very much to be in the same line,,,

Bruxville Jim 20:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
paris jony 20:33 GMT // Then the question goes - why 2012?

paris jony 20:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 20:30 GMT July 6, 2004:to year 2012 the old ussr is going to be one of the EU....

SD tht 20:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Okay Bruxville, let's see how it goes. I'm trading on my techs anyway. Good luck to you.

Bruxville Jim 20:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 20:25 GMT // If you were crazy enough to include Russia (around 150 mio) among candidates, then I would be crazy enough to admit that you are almost right:))

Bruxville Jim 20:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 19:58 GMT // Why are you so pessimistic? These countries are growing some 10 times faster than old EU on average, so what's the problem? Even if their economies turn into the red, the proportional impact on euro might be negligible.

Goes (NL) B747 20:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Good evening Jim,

I worte:
...."the new EU comers and would to be new comers population is larger than of the establishing countries"....

Turkey, Romania etc...etc...
Some (crazy) voices even mentioned Russia!

My english is broken but based on HARD facts :)

Bruxville Jim 20:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Yra Rygoje:))

Bruxville Jim 20:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 19:51 GMT // You aren't right concerning the number of inhabitants. Ger, Fra, Ita, UK - all have at least 60 mio inhabitants (Ger >80), while the biggest newcomer Poland has only 40 mio and others are significantly smaller (e.g. 0.8 mio in Cyprus, 0.4 mio in Malta, and around 5 mio on average in others). Of course , a lot changes when you add >60 mio Turkey, but this one is not even a candidate officially (although GWB called recently they belong to EU).

SD tht 20:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas.. Slovenia.

Kaunas 20:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ldn paul 20:14 GMT July 6, 2004

thank you

Kaunas 20:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Kur yra "bruxville" ?

ldn paul 20:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
kaunas
slovenia

Bruxville Jim 20:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 20:08 GMT // Sveikas, braljukas:))

Goes (NL) B747 20:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373524492


any views how it will affect the FX markets?

gt

Kaunas 20:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 19:12 GMT July 6, 2004

3 more - lithuania, estonia and... ?

SD tht 19:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thks Bruxville. Didn't know, if that is the case these countries will be a serious drag to the Euro.

Bruxville Jim 19:53 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 19:48 GMT // As far as I know, the experience with those three outsiders forced EU guys to include this condition to newcomers.

Goes (NL) B747 19:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 19:38 GMT July 6, 2004

the new EU comers and would to be new comers population is larger than of the establishing countries, this move is a creation of social unrest within the first 12 countries (i give 4-8 years to this thing to blow!).

The way things are moving (I live in Holland) at the present delivers the feeling that we all sit on a time bomb, the bottom line of this move is a (very) short run speculation with profits now and no tomorrow.

The new comers cannot and never will be able to replace China, India and the rest of Asia and very soon the "cheap labor" will translate into collpasing of the first 12.

JPY, INR, CNY, SGD and the rest of Asian CCYS are the CCY to have if you look 3 and more years further....EUR is dead just because of being born from the wrong reasons.


gl & gt

SD tht 19:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville.. you're right it was only ten, but why do they have to convert to Euro? Sweden, Denmark and Great Britain are Eropean Union members with their own currency. These countries don't have to adopt the Euro as far as I know.

Bruxville Jim 19:38 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 19:12 GMT // Actually only 10 did join this year. And all of them will have to convert to euro at some point of time, as mentioned in the accession treaty.

Tallinn viies 19:37 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 18:04 GMT July 6, 2004 - we are memebrs but not yet in erm2. applied for that last week I guess. so, fastest with 2 years.

Bruxville Jim 19:23 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
US Ligth sweet crude oil up 1.26$ already today to 39.65. This has served as a reason to escape from yen.

SD tht 19:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Valdez.. tvelve countries joined the European Union in May this year, three of these were accepted as ERM II (Euro) members. The 9 others may or may not convert to Euro. Three new candidates for the European Union are Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. All these will have to qualify to join the Euro Zone or ERMII
or what we want to call it.


perrie como 18:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
tks livingston ..I saw that 114.85 last may top...but yet little mixed and slow...guess the game behind is the Nikkei already mad It's summer top or we go some 13K....
also the complex us fundamentals are dollar negative on the other side...

would closely watch for now ..think eur/usd might double top july to aug

stay well and have a nice evening..

bibi now

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
E zone = EZ = all countries which have Euro-ized. 3 more eh? supposed to be a dozen soon enough...hope they've got their stuff together, EL Euro is getting pretty top heavy and wobbly if you ask me with the participants they've got now, let alone a bunch of flakey ones to come. Hope Brittian and Switzerland don't dive in the mud with them, Europe needs at least something solid and propriatory.

Livingston nh 18:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
perrie como - daily chart on USD/JPY shows possible new up channel (Mar 8 hi, apr 2 lo, may 17 hi, june 25 lo) - currency above 21 da sma and MACD turning up // a break above May's high might be the surprise of the summer

USA Biscuit Boy 18:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Go for it Valdez.....what is your site address and I'll do the same.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:40 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Tks Biscuit..and I have your nice table on the wall...may I link to your page from mine?

KL KL 18:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Maybe I meant to say so many $ -ve news yet USD is holding "up" quite well....maybe setting up a trap for us...anyway I am looking to sell $ when those obvious levels come up. Right now it just not attractive yet....waiting for bounce on the US equeties tomorrow to sell $ & buy gold

SD tht 18:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Here's another link, also posted on sunday. Three new ERM II (Euro) mebers June 28th.


http://www.eu2004.ie/templates/document.asp?sNavlocator=5,236&content_id=1499&letter=T

(Half way down the page)

perrie como 18:36 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
anyway usd/jpy seems looking to set a smaller top ..maybe 109.60/80...seems japanese economy to show stronger data ..only doubt is taiwan-china near to war climate

Quebec 18:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone think Aud/Usd will see 0.72 before 0.7115?

USA Biscuit Boy 18:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Still holding short Valdez....13 day ema at 1.2200.....aiming for that and maybe more.

SD tht 18:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Allright, sorry. What's E-Zone? Do you mean ERM II, the Euro body?

perrie como 18:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
am I in europe? :))

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold down USD up is the norm...that is if you are comparing gold to USD. What's a gonna happen?...chart not impressive last couple days... Again, we're at upper end of 30 day range. After that nice jump on Friday too. 3 year trend is pointed decidedly UP. Just a hunch...I still think a drop to 1.21 is not out of line at all before a continuance up to European pain threshhold levels after Xmas-early spring '05. Still got my eur/usd short in place @ 1.2290, how bout your 1.2335 short Biscuit?

Bruxville Jim 18:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SD tht 18:25 GMT // E-zone stands for Eurozone not EU.

SD tht 18:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville.. Sweden is a EU member, and so is Estonia. Here's a llink
(don't know how to post a proper link). Sweden never converted to Euro, neither did Denmark.

http://europa.eu.int/abc/index_en.htm

Bruxville Jim 18:23 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 18:19 GMT // USD is holding down not holding up. Euro is holding up.

KL KL 18:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
This is rare, Gold down USD$ holding up quite well against all ccy. I smell something fishy but don't know what.

perrie como 18:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
seems to me eur/usd is going next days above 1.24 also s&p sub 1100 to 1080...not a trading advice as yet organizing ....an august crashy month as 97 98 years might also fit

Bruxville Jim 18:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 17:55 GMT // Thanks for your advice concerning France numbers. But Sweden is not yet in E-zone. When do Estonians join it?

Tallinn viies 17:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 16:59 GMT - u dont need to follow all the data (bel, itl, swe, etc). it is enough when you follow German and France numbers.
actually it is enough if you follow only France number because those are correlated most by Euroland numbers, although traders tend to follow German numbers because by their idea euro took over old german mark position.

Dublin Flip 17:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit boy I agree that major players didn't get a chance to sell dollars much last week. Normally after a similar move like this one to 1.2335 we'd have everyone bulled and stops would be lined 1.2220/50 and monday or tuesday they'd be nailed. Instead (at the moment anyway) that's where everyone want to go long (for the ubiquitous 1 big fig stop 1.2120/50). I think we have mexican stand-off at the moment.
Daily closing of cable above 1.85 and a $chf below 1.2260 would provide some mmotivation though.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
A nice clue is the reaction to the soft ISM data.....where is the follow thru dollar selling? Better create some value up here and break those barriers soon.....

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Jay GVI - you've got mail amigo.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:37 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim I think most big players didn't get a chance to sell a good amount of dollars last week and are waiting for lower levels. The smaller accounts carrying on the dollar selling now are going to have a hard time breaking thru the barriers you mentioned. The pressure is squarely on them to keep this thing going now.....lets see if they come up with the bids.

GER ad 17:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 17:12 ,
You may be right but if you are looking to GBP/JPY (>5 big figure in few days) and EUR/JPY (>3 big figure in the same time) and no top clear until now - it may be dangerous.
GT & GL

HK Kevin 17:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 17:07 GMT, sorry for the late reply as I am revising my s/l before going to bed. Frankly speaking, no idea for expected low in tomorrow's Asian session, but I think 109.00/10 may hold now.

Bruxville Jim 17:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
You are welcome to comment on my posts...

Bruxville Jim 17:15 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Today's cable price action might be explained by intentions to trigger stop orders to the upside.

Bruxville Jim 17:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
I mean it - levels of 1.8435/40 are marvellous entry points for trading 1.80/85 range on cable. in addition, big sellers sit up there - use the chance. take into account that gold has fallen sharply by fund sales - and these funds might be willing to buy back only at 350-370, which corresponds to a much stronger dollar than it is now (even far below 1.80 gbp/usd).

hk ab lazy 17:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nice dlr/jpy, let's see.

Goes (NL) B747 17:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:45 GMT July 6, 2004


what about the lows of far east session?
I will try to take an entry that time...what are lows you expect during the asian session for entry to the 110.40 ride?

tia & gt

Bruxville Jim 16:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasili 16:51 GMT // Do you follow all those data figures from ger, fra, ita, esp, etc. and try to interpret them?

Moscow Vasili 16:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville, Jim
No, thanks, I'm not good at appreciating the UK fundamintals, and I don't like trading without knowing what is really behind the figures on the screen. I'd better remain with my eur/usd

Bruxville Jim 16:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasili 16:44 GMT // I'm with them and I invite you too:)

HK Kevin 16:45 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:39 GMT, my radar is pointing 110.40 for USD/JPY tmorrow, providing that 108.80 holds. Re EUR/JPY, 135.20 is my t/p.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
B747 it is against forum policy to post brokers and in the end doesn't really matter....allow a good 10 pip range on those prices as possible prices traded around the place.

I would prefer to trade usd/jpy from the short side at these levels.....my sell order at 109.89 didn't get hit and I am hoping 109.70 wasn't the hi for this week. I am not really enthused on the pair either way so I will hold out for 89....if not there is always next week.

Moscow Vasili 16:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
a US investment house as a persistent seller at the highs of 1.8440 gbp/usd is noticed once again.

Antwerp Tom 16:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Vasili, congrat long €/$ 2280 TP 2315 SL 2270
So maybe you'll get your € from me.LOL GL GT

Goes (NL) B747 16:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
thank you BB and Tom,

BB, your # shows with me as the lowest bid - which system do you use?

BB, do you give a chance for short USD/JPY from 109.30 to 108.40 before this week's close?


TIA and gt

HK Kevin 16:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed my 2nd half of short EUR/JPY from 134.82 at 134.18 and reverse to long before taking a rest.
Now long USD/JPY at 109.08
long EUR/JPY 134.18 (new position)
long EUR/CHF 1.5178
long EUR/GBP .6673 (new position)

Moscow Vasili 16:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Tom Antwerp
I quit the trade long eur vs usd at 1/2294, will look for another opportunity to by at 1.2260-1.2270

USA Biscuit Boy 16:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that should be 14.01 GMT.

Antwerp Tom 16:31 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
B747 I have 108,84 bid at 14H00 GMT

USA Biscuit Boy 16:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
B747 I have 108.85 at 15.01 GMT.

Goes (NL) B747 16:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
what was today's USD/JPY low and exact time stamp, please.

tia & gt

Goes (NL) B747 16:20 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
what was today's USD/PY low and exact time stamp, please.

tia & gt

Oakland Daimyo 16:18 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy---Yes I'm sitting on my hands for now but will look to sell if bulls cannot hold onto the 1.23 handle. Looking to put on trades that I can hold until the end of the week (I'm moving the office; cable modem & dsl backup will not be hooked up until Thurs) I'm in transition between two places right now and to top it all off I rolled my ankle over yesterday and it's making my life very difficult. Doctors appt at 3pm PST Maybe this week is not a good week for me to trade. I keep telling myself that but here I am still working.

Moscow Vasili 16:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
yes, sorry , 1.2335

Antwerp Tom 16:11 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Vasili, you mean 1,2330?

Moscow Vasili 16:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd looks like has firmly passed through the downtrend from 1.2335 to 1.2265. Now looking for a retest of 1/2230 level. GT to all

hk ab lazy 15:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
will catch some aud/jpy at 78 and 77.80 if reached again.

USA Biscuit Boy 15:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Daimyo. Well we haven't even got a look at whats up at 1.2350 yet for EUR/USD. But with talk of barriers all the way up to 1.25 I don't think anyone is too keen to find out right now. Big buyers certainly aren't chasing the market. But as long as prices don't move below 1.22 for any length of time dollar bears certainly in control now.

UAE Oil man 15:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
As for oil, my support (which i have been talking about for some time now) at 36 held, and as long as it does the bull oil run is still in the game..
And again low consumption month (summer), so don't be surprised to see higher oil prices in the next few months...

perrie como 15:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Clearly, given Beijing's repeated warning that it will use force, as a last resort and whatever the cost, to stop Taiwanese independence, the US feels it needs to send Beijing a message.
seems if tensions develops further here...oil gold might go sharply up

melbourne farmacia 15:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
London e 14:52 GMT July 6, 2004
Jim Sinclair has $450 Aug target fwiw.

nyc jk 15:38 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
B747 - the Gann stuff was directed at London e who asked a question in a previous post. cheers

perrie como 15:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5359494/site/newsweek

The end of cheap money threatens local property bubbles from Seattle to Sydney. The bursts will rattle cocktail parties, but (probably) not the global economy.

Bruxville Jim 15:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:19 GMT // No, interest rate differential gold-usd is negative (for long positions).

UAE Oil man 15:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Removed the lower entries of positions..
Well off for a few hours.
Gl.

Goes (NL) B747 15:27 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:19 GMT July 6, 2004

I got an answer and a lesson in one, thank you JIM (sorry for the mistype within the first post).
I will not ask again! :)


gl & gt

hk ab lazy 15:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
aud still has some room left when aud/jpy hasn't hit it "anticipated" 80 target.

The whole aud/jpy move in daily is interesting, a double key day reversal at around 75.

Moscow Vasili 15:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
14-periods EMA on 5 minutes chart eur/usd has been broken. Is it a false breakthrough- minutes will show.

Goes (NL) B747 15:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:19 GMT July 6, 2004

I got an answer and a lesson in one, thank you Joim.
I will not ask again! :)


gl & gt

KEN HOUSTON 15:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
gbp yen has gone nuts i sold out to0 early.

Oakland Daimyo 15:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Loss of 1.2270 (10 x 3 P&F) &/or 1.2267 (Tweezer Bottom) on EUR/USD will confirm needed correction back to the 1.2211 old Fractal Top (b/o from last Friday). I believe we need to see a test of this area before we can try upside again. Also, I have a channel line drawn on the 8hr chart which is serving as old resis/new support/now new resistance @ 1.2300 -- The most recent (therefore most relevant) Fractal Top is sitting @ 1.2337, so it is not likely we will move above this level w/o fresh catalyst. Waters are murky and patience is necessary. Sell uptick strat is focus for now. 1.2299 is the pivot for today. As long as we stay under this, bulls will be in a problem near-term. If correction does take place and this channel holds, we could see pullback to 1.2129 (Fractal Bottom) and 1.2100 (TL)---Please note: Fractals are taken from 8HR chart. GT to all

Dublin Flip 15:20 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Smelt more like one of those European Central Banks was getting shafted by their broker on another sale. You'd think they'd just ring up their friendly Asian Central Bank i.e. China "now that treasuries are rallying, you want to offload a couple of yards of dollars and help out a dim european central bank out???"-LOL

nyc jk 15:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
b747.... this is (potentially) a bit longer term trade, sl on EUR 1.2120 , GBP 1.8230 ... key levels to overcome from my models 1.2350 and 1.8450, if that happens will look for a lot on the upside potentially.

re Gann - as a matter of fact, I did do some testing back a number of years ago. The basic premise of the whole approach is flawed. Think about it, when you connect the signficant high and low to get your supposed 45 degree angle, what happens if you widen or narrow the X (time) axis of your chart? well the angle of the line changes. so if you 3 year old kid drawing the lines stuffs up the axis, you will be trading on faulty Gann lines lol. seriously, Gann is a complete waste of time.

Beijing Laowen 15:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
In usd/jpy from 108.99, targeting 110.08.

hk ab lazy 15:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
long gold needs to pay interest right?

Cairo Amgad 15:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thank you UAE Oil, appritiate your help.
GL GT

Moscow Vasili 15:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
What do you think, will gbp/usd lead eur/usd higher again?

Goes (NL) B747 15:13 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:05 GMT July 6, 2004

target?
s/l?

gl & gt

lnd 15:10 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gann can be useful provided you get the starting point right. Used to know a guy who was a master at this stuff. Tried it myself and ended up with a lot of lines on the screen with little in the way of entry or exit points. As with fib the art is in knowing (or picking) where things start and end there are a few who use this with success.

London e 15:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gann = absolutely useless
Have you tested Gann? Why is it useless? Thanks

Ldn 15:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
dealer said fund players were disappointed by gold's lack of sustained lift Tuesday despite the overnight softness in the U.S. dollar, and took profits , precious metal downside targets $385 and $382, dealers

UAE Oil man 15:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Amgad, I m looking for the lower band of the trading range, so 1.80 and 69-70..and e$ 1.19-1.20..but once it starts to dip(more than current I'll place stops to entry and watch..).

nyc jk 15:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
just gone long EUR @ 1.2270, GBP @ 1.8390 fwiw

Gann = absolutely useless

melbourne farmacia 15:03 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:39 GMT July 6, 2004
Cheers mate - understand the euro blues... options around every corner... At this stage i'm dumping open positions on good cable upticks...GT

London e 15:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone here use Gann? Any opinions of Gann?

Dublin CK 15:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 14:55 GMT July 6, 2004

To disagree - is the only thing

hk ab lazy 15:01 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
If gold is still dictating the majors, the others retracement will come soon together?

hk ab lazy 15:00 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad key day reversal?

Dublin Flip 14:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Elliot wavists? do those people ever agree on anything???
must be the trap before 450 then -LOL

Cairo Amgad 14:54 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:38 GMT July 6, 2004
Sold 1.8424 Gbp/$.
Sold 7175+52 Aud/$.

May i ask you about TP level of these pairs shorting GBP/USD, shorting AUD/USD
Thank you.

Nottingham 14:53 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
aussie...some way off as yet, but I understand there are some large stops below the week's low...gl gt

London e 14:52 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GOLD: Apparently Elliot Wave analysis says gold is going down to around $350.

Ldn 14:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Drops Over $8 To $389 On Dealer, Fund Selling

HK Kevin 14:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy boy. Me too at 109.08. Also long some EUR/CHF at 1.5178 for m/t trade, hoping for 1.5280.

Ldn 14:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold afternoon fix at $394.50 an ounce

Hong Kong Qindex 14:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : It is having some problem in the New York session.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 14:43 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold like a stoun....

hk ab lazy 14:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, in already 108.98

USA Biscuit Boy 14:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Looks like we need eur/usd to consolidate further before attempting a range breakout on the topside.

Nice entires on aud/usd Oilman!

Looking to buy eur/gbp soon around 72.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:20 GMT July 6, 2004
Good for you patience paid off but eur/usd does not move like cable so I had to cut my long intraday position loose and hope for the best on a short on this pair as a contra trade. Now it gets tricky with the summer winds blowing on the FX market. Eur/usd is being driven by it’s crosses and right now they are driving this pair down with very little movement and the first support holding process to the next support IMHO. GL GT

HK Kevin 14:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
If we look at the 4-hr chart of EUR/$, the previous bar signals a buy for 1.2340-60. However, I don't act on it.

Chicago YM 14:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
morning all

HK Kevin 14:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed half of my short EUR/JPY from 134.82 at 133.92. Waiting to long USD/JPY.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
The following posts are still valid :-


Crude Oil : Projected Resistant Level at 39.35 - 40.39.

Friday July 2, 2004 - 02:57:47 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.htmlCrude Oil (Monthly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my monthly cycle charts is located at 36.75. The lower barrier is expected at 34.15 // 34.41 and the upper barrier is positioning at 39.09 // 39.35. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 34.15 - 40.39.


Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 34.15* // 34.67 - 35.19* - 35.71 - 36.23 - (36.75) - 37.27* - 37.79 - 38.31* - 38.83 // 39.35* ... 40.39 ...


Spot Gold : A Strong Pullback is Imminent
Saturday June 19, 2004 - 08:17:07 GMT
QIndex - www.global-view.com/beta/qindexguide.html

Spot Gold (22-Day Cycle) : The pattern of my 22-day cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to trade between 383.5 - 396 initially next week. The distribution profile of my probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 358.6 - 396. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 383.5. A projected barrier is located at 371.1 - 377.3.

... 352.5 // 358.6 - 364.9 - 371.1 // 377.3 - 383.5 - 389.8 - 396 // 402.2 ...

Gen dk 14:27 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 14:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
KEN HOUSTON 14:19 - they always grazy during the summer time. trade range and small.

Ldn 14:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Components including new orders, employment, prices paid, rise, limiting downside affect on USD

KEN HOUSTON 14:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
forex market gone crazy no direction

UAE Oil man 14:16 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Will probably see the lower part of the range in this summer-trade range.
Unless offcourse E$ starts closing over 1.238-1.24
But so far it looks well offered at those levels, and trading range goes on..
Gl.

LA newfxx 14:13 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
what did the data tell?

us $ is weak or what?

Ldn 14:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
US ISM June Non-Mfg New Orders Index 62.4 Vs May 61.3
US ISM June Non-Mfg Prices Index 74.6 Vs May 74.4
US ISM June Non-Mfg Employment Index 57.4 Vs May 56.3
US ISM June Non-Mfg Business Index 59.9 Vs May 65.2
ap.

Global-View GVI 14:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI john 14:02 GMT July 6, 2004
Challenger layoffs -12% vs May

Spotforex NY 14:01 GMT July 6, 2004
overall headline number softer, but improvements in employments and new orders....

GVI john 14:01 GMT July 6, 2004
59.9 vs. 65.2

GVI 14:01 GMT July 6, 2004
ISM Services PMI 59.9, lower end of forecasts but
Employment 57.4 vs. 56.3 in May
Prices Paid 74.6 vs. 74.4 in May

Makati Obelix 14:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ISM Service for June, 59.9. Prior is 65.2

Ldn 13:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
traders USD/JPY Stops Building Below 109.00

Moscow Vasili 13:53 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim

Thank you much too

Moscow Vasili 13:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GER ad

Thank you much

hk ab lazy 13:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
long dlr/py 108.98.

Nottingham 13:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
London R J 13:19 GMT

cable in between levels at present...it needs to overcome 8451 to avoid losing momentum and in order to draw in buyers for test of June highs, where some good supply is expected to materialise (all the way up to 8510)...on the downside, a close above 8400 will be quite bullish (as well as creating a two trading op for BoE meet) so any intraday dip below there may see it slip down to 8367 with better support at 8355...as far as trading recs go, I have seen a note suggesting euro sales above 2330 (stops above 2360) on any ISM inspired strength i.e. sell blip if ISM comes in weak and pushes pair high...not sure it's going to be relevant now, which is a shame, but next time I bet they'll keep schtum until a few minutes before the numbers are due...gl gt

hk ab lazy 13:40 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp is dictating the range mode market at the moment.

UAE Oil man 13:38 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold 1.8424 Gbp/$.
Sold 7175+52 Aud/$.
Bought $/cad 1.3213
Sold E$ 1.2320+1.2289
Still holding Eurgbp from .67+ level and still looking for 65xx..Just getting the rolls at present ..So no complains.


Gl.

GER ad 13:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Vasili,
If you understand german try this:
http://makeashorterlink.com/?A1EC36BB8

hk ab lazy 13:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy is painting the similar type of pictures as eur/jpy.

manila stubbs 13:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:17 GMT July 6, 2004
i take it you reckon a pull abck is in store. do you have a target? personally i still think its on its way to 204.00 but probably not without taking a dip first - where i would like to long it.

Bruxville Jim 13:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Vasili 13:19 GMT // This is a rumoured option, so it presents good opportunities of taking shorts (short 1.2320/30, may wait till 1.2345, stop 1.2355, already a couple of times good levels for covering these shorts have been reached). Don't be so naive to expect a site which publishes the names of all buyers and issuers of the option as well as their financial depth.

Moscow Vasili 13:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
The uptrend eur/usd form 1.2270 to 1.2330 seems to have been broken.
could someone give a link to a page explaining what dnt option structure is.
Are option issuers or buyers, trading on option structures so strong to hold the whole market in a range?

London R J 13:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham,
Hi, been a while since I last posted, Any comments on where cable is headed, or in other words, sell gbp now and buy usd??
will appreciate suggestions from all
Many thanks

Bruxville Jim 13:17 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 13:09 GMT // CableYen has rallied decently recently and might have reached its new range top already. And surprisingly good data from u.s. might hit this pair hard, too. But if you are determined to take a long, you may try buying ahead of 200.30 hourly trendline (with a stop below trendline or below 200.00).

prague jv 13:17 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 12:55 GMT July 6, 2004
USD/JPY is very close to daily low, is it time to long USD/JPY?

I do not thing so . 109.30 did not hold and now is ressistance. Only move back above 109.50 will take the presure from down .imho gl

Porto PJT 13:13 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 13:09 GMT , buy high doesnt seams a so great idea.

Bruxville Jim 13:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 12:59 GMT // rumoured 1.1950/1.2350 exotic option rolls off tomorrow, so we should stay in the range today. But bkk's forecast seems to have run out of time.

manila stubbs 13:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone care to venture a suggestion of a good entry point to long gbpjpy? TIA

Porto PJT 13:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
TUESDAY, July 6, 2004
14:00 GMT- US- June ISM Services PMI: vs. 65.2 in May, see 63.0
14:00 GMT- US- June Challenger Layoff Index


you right Jim, thanks.

Ldn 13:00 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks everyone for that can get a coffee now cheers

Goes (NL) B747 12:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon & thank you Jim,

now I see it back, strange! (maybe I was wrong).
Jim, do you the bkk baloon touches the ground (comes true)?


gl & gt



Bruxville Jim 12:57 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 12:56 GMT // Isn't it in 1 hr?

Bruxville Jim 12:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 12:54 GMT // 06Jul 14:00 gmt USD ISM Non Mfg Index - Jun

Porto PJT 12:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 12:54 , in 2 hours.

Goes (NL) B747 12:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY is very close to daily low, is it time to long USD/JPY?


gl & gt

Bruxville Jim 12:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) - do you mean 'bkk cad 11:30 GMT' ? - it is still there...

Ldn 12:54 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
What time is the US data out please

Global-View 12:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
No clue but if it was removed, it was inadvertent. Suggestion, in the future, email us (this goes for everyone) if you have a question, a problem, need trading help or anything to discuss as we have an open door policy and are very responsive. This way, the FF also stays free for market flow.

Goes (NL) B747 12:45 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Jay, a message from someone nicked bkk was on screen for few seconds (also in the archice) and left from both boards.

Global-View 12:43 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
What message? Nothing was removed. (intentionally anyway). We often do some cleanup on the FF, correct typos, spacing, etc.

Goes (NL) B747 12:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Jay, why you removed the message from bkk?

perrie como 12:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
US long rates+real estate prices picking+
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040626/wl_asia_afp/china_us_hongkong_040626025541

Moscow Vasili 12:27 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
par was right, gbp/usd pulled eur/usd higher. It's loathe to fall back

melbourne farmacia 12:20 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:02 GMT July 2, 2004
Had to wait few days mate, but Gbp/usd target met 1.8379...
LOL.. Looking for 1.8465 next fwiw GT

Gen dk 12:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 12:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
cable...may find some resistance at 8426 but next of significance is at 8451...gl gt

Ldn 11:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
German manufacturing orders seen falling by 0.5% in May, correcting from 1.9% rise in Apr.Reuters

Gen dk 11:35 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bkk cad 11:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Pip pickers 30 min candlestick chart: engulfing taking 3rd body of failed morning star. Next 30 min will re-visit 1.2266

London ADK 10:57 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Par - what if eur/gbp goes to 0.6650?

Nottingham 10:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
cable...important for pair to hold above second level of resistance (8355) in order to maintain momentum and keep half an eye on 8400...a failure to do so is likely to result in disappointed buyers exiting and may drive pair back to 8340...gl gt

PAR 10:52 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Higher GBP will bring EURO back above 1.2350.

Bah BAHRAIN1 10:43 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds good day to u all,
Hope all fine with u, Any view for today pls?

Tallinn Viies/// Welcome back.

Good luck to u all frnds, nice trades.

Tallinn viies 10:21 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:19 GMT - thnks

Nottingham 10:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
viies, good demand expected in 2200-2150...gl gt

Tallinn viies 10:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
I would like to see correction down to 1,2230/35 or even down to 1,2200/05 to buy cheap euros....
target 1,2475 within a week

Nottingham 10:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
euro...bias towards downside whilst pair trades below 2282 trednline...gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 10:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:29 GMT July 6, 2004
EUR/JPY : Quantized Levels of 44-Day Cycle Reference


... // 130.24 - 131.38 - 132.53* - 133.68 - 134.83 // ...

Tallinn viies 09:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
good day all!
back from 2 weeks holiday. nice to see you all are alive :)
lets make money now!

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 09:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/jpy can hit 136-137 roof.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

prague viktor 09:29 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab:sorry weekly I was looking to the daily..

prague viktor 09:16 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART.are u looking to the 136-137??

prague jv 09:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy offering good intraday buy with stop just under todays low . ( 109.30 on my chart )

Stockholm za 09:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab >>> it was`ent me....OR maby Radan Part 2..... lol

Gen dk 08:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 08:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
sorry, should be 08:41 one.

Normandy Nick 08:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
1.8330 rejected, lack of conviction, I don't think we'll see 1.8350 and further up before 1.8270 or maybe the direction will be given by the EZ number...

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 08:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Someone used my handle without my permission, Jay. That 8:34 is not mine.

hk ab this is much easier reminder than the hassle o 08:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks Jay

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 08:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, the roof is still a bit farther away for the eur/jpy, watch out for the roof-top-finding-spike.

Nottingham 08:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
cable...imp resistances at 8340 and 8355...gl gt

Normandy Nick 08:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
It looks like the market expect bad news, nonetheless, stop at 1.8341, reverse at 1.8351. If it's really bad, we could see 1.8220 or even 1.82. Anyway I try a purchase at 1.8270 if this number is not reached too quickly.

PAR 08:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
As usual UK manufacturing and industrial data will be much stronger than consensus despite the strong GBP , also since the FTSE is heavily oil related higher oil prices mean higher FTSE and higher GBP, finally dont forget sterling is a high yielding currency with interest rates more than double that of EURO and almost four times as high as US interest rates. But high yielding currencies are risky so an accident is waiting to happen.

sar jf 07:45 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
the slower yen cross rises the better means more money left to gather - also option spot sellers means option spot buyers on range trading bit of a trap to sell weakness when appears gt

HK Kevin 07:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, 1st trade this week. Sold EUR/JPY this morning at 134.82, looking for a correction back back to 132.80.

NY,NY GFX_PWS 07:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
looks like big support level here in cable at 1.8300..anyone have a strong opinion on the direction at this point? Industrial Production number due out in an hour will be a key.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 07:15 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy is still a buy till 80 prints.

MONACO OGA 07:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 06/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2320), same as yesterday opening. The pair as expected consolidated in a tight range (1,2275-1,2325) in a very thin US holiday market. Today we believe 1,2350 will provide enough resistance on the upsides, so we will be looking to sell any rallies with a stop at 1,2380. Supports still at 1,2280 and 1,2220. The big picture hasn't changed, we still believe the market will hover inside 1,1750-1,2350 for some time.

Data out today:

Ger many unemployment rate June expected 10.5% 07.55 GMT
UK Ind production May expected 0.4% 08.30 GMT
UK Manufacturing production May expected 0.3% 08.30 GMT
EUROzone retail trade May expected -0.7% 09.00 GMT
US ISM non manufacturing June expected 63.00 14.00 GMT

Gold at 398,50, with WTI August at 38,37.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (109,40). The pair regained 109 level yesterday on disappointing NIKKEY and worries on PM KOIZUMI's lowest satisfaction percentage in latest poll. Overnight, the pair broke 109 and printed 109,64 on another bad NIKKEY performance and ahead of sunday elections. For today we see supports at 109,10 and resistance ahead of 110, a level we have been calling since last week.
EUR/JPY currently 134,60, printed 134,88 overnight, the cross is looking overbought around 134,50 while 133,50 has now become a supportive zone.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8320), following EUR/USD price action closely. 1,80-1,85 has been containing the market since the end of May, and we still believe playing the range remains a valid strategy. Support for the day at 1,8270 with resistance at 1,8360.
EUR/GBP (0,6718), almost unchanged from yesterday. We remain neutral for the time being.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Normandy Nick 06:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
target 1.8270 unless euro= 1.2280 or chf= 1.2385 first

Cairo MDR 06:52 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney
I guess he was talking about the daily chart, because it might seem there is a head and shoulder formation but I am not sure
GL & Gt

KEN HOUSTON 06:52 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
buying us cad here

nyc sa 06:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney , was looking at a long term chart , but I am no expert at chart reading .

Mla Evan 06:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, what's your view on GBP/YEN now? TIA

Normandy Nick 06:32 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
short pound at 1.8330

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 06:16 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
If tomorrow's RBA stops hiking, aud/nzd 1.05 per nt mentioned?

nt's now having a nice trip to Hokaido now.....

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 06:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
guys if u would like a challenge....

http://www.fasco-csc.com/works/viridian/index_e.html

Check it out only if you have guts.

Sydney gvm 05:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 05:33 GMT July 6, 2004 - cant find a H&S on my charts - what time frame are you looking at?

Sydney2 05:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Guys, do you have any views about SPI200? why does it keep going up? Good short around 3570? tia

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:40 GMT July 6, 2004

sorry that was in reply to your post

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Doesnt seem to be worrying the Japanese, aud/yen very well bid today

ind maharani 05:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 05:33 GMT
You look which time frame chart?
you mean it will break below or above to new highs?
Tnks
GL/GT

Ldn 05:40 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   

Aussie overbought levels flag caution .

nyc sa 05:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
euro/usd chart looks like a head and shoulder with right shoulder starting to build ,any views ?

KEN HOUSTON 05:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
dont know what to trade everthing is oversold or overbought i wait for a while .anybody has anything in mind?

Ldn 05:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Japan Household Spending For May up 4.8% y/y

melbourne farmacia 05:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ab - re: 22 July... yeah could see a nice Dollar rally from this point. GT

ldnl 05:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Japan index of leading economic indicators in May at 66.7, . Reading marks 9th straight month of index holding above boom-or-bust line of 50, suggesting nation's economic pickup likely to continue in coming months. Data in sync with robust BOJ tankan survey last week, too, showing big Japan manufacturers at their most upbeat in 13 years. rts

ldn 05:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Japan: Leading Indicator Index 66.7

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 05:01 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
let's say hello to aud/jpy 80 first.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 04:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
and eur is now simply relying on the support by eur/jpy once the roof is hit again, it will snap back fast....

136-137....

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 04:56 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, now looks like 22th July can give some interesting move later.

Ldn 04:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Option releated sellers lined up between
0.7175/95.

Moscow Vasili 04:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold usd vs eur half an hour ago. Thing the pair will go to 1.2320 in the coming 30 minutes.

ICT ML 04:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SZ.....between the torrential rains and the unsupervised idiotic kids down the street shooting bottle rockets, etc.....in the direction of my massive WOOD SHAKE roof, I am relieved it has passed....without my having to inflict bodily harm on anyone!

I'll be trying to trade the US session the remainder of the summer, so see you in the NY morning.

melbourne farmacia 04:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 03:26 GMT July 6, 2004
Nothing to inspire adding to positions at this stage... wait for London to kick start the day. Gbp needs to move above 1.8350 for new buying IMO. Aud/usd could drop back from current levels based on tech tools. GT

OK SZ 04:04 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ML, great post, hope you had a great 4th weekend.see ya all in the morning..gl, gt

ICT ML 03:42 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 00:53 GMT July 6, 2004
ML

Hope life is good. Got any prophetic words of wisdom for the pychologically challenged individuals how trade FX?


How about "If in doubt...STAY OUT"....and "SCARED $$$ is LOST $$$"......and "nobody said I have to take a position every single frickin' day of the year!".................if you get my drift here....

to quote a great trader (not me)...."wait until you see the $$$ laying on the floor in a corner, and all you have to do is go over and pick it up"........"MOF trades are the best kind", and there aren't any right now IMHO.

Cairo Amgad 03:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hello everyone, anyview about AUD/USD at .7140, Thank you.

KL KL 03:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia any views on gbpusd and audusd... All the ccy now in limbo imo. Something needs to give and I cannot see which one short term.... I suppose $ weakness still the theme but showing some power lately...

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 03:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
yen isnt ready just yet for sell, macd still bullish on 1hr blue candles only , 110 is the 38% fibo , good level for sale heheh

U.K. J.B. 03:16 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold doll/yen 109.62 Euro/yen looks toppish around t/l res. 134.89. All this political uncertainty giving us nice r/r trading opportunity.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:14 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 02:50 GMT - EUR/USD : If the market is trading above 1.24 - 1.25 then we have to search for the new trading range. Our system is a mathematical model and is working in a black box. We are a service provider and there is no answer for your question.

melbourne farmacia 03:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - I'm no expert on Eur/Jpy... but looks to be pulling towards 135.70 area.. Usd/jpy nearing voodoo line at 109.90/100.00. GT

Ldn 03:03 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Australian investor confidence slipped in 2Q amid concerns about interest rates, economic outlook,
Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry survey

houston st 02:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
NYMEX access session:

crude +.63
heating oil +151
unleaded +216

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   

Dr. Q// Please tell us how you arrived at the range you predicted for eur/usd in coming months. I think most of the value of this forum is understanding at HOW predictions are derived..much more than the predictions. TIA.

Goes (NL) B747 02:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion 02:41 GMT July 6, 2004

I do not see the JPY trading lower than the lows we already saw, BUT it will be narrow range trades.

USD EUR above JPY 110/135 will move the trading of JPY to OPEC and Mr. PUTIN, but there things always move slower than what FX traders need.

btw, Mr. PUTIN made YOKUS to understand who is the boss, oil prices were never so Russian tailored :)

gl & gt

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:48 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
when 110 is near, may place a stop sell underneath.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, my feeling is this yen retracement story will be extended a little bit further. Could be 115 again?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
JPY long doing well expect it to move some more.


IMHO entry is crucial... i took it with a 60 pip stop and set a trailing stop as soon as it moved in my favor then the stop was moved to break even...

stops like that have minimum exposure, key to trading successfully.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Exporters must be happy like a bird for this special present before repatriation.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
It's always better to follow the train rather than running ahead of the train....

Surabaya Medallion 02:41 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
I feel that JPY must wait for oil and Koizumi next week to strengthen.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:38 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
This will definitely change many things we have seen these few days.

The bomb could be delayed, but don't think it could extend further after summer.

hk ab PAY ATTENTION TO EURJPY WEEKLY CHART 02:36 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
The eur/jpy cargoes are ready......

Either dive or die....

Ldn 02:30 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Drifting Towards 1.2270 Support

st. pete islander 02:26 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe ... No problem, your secret is safe with me. Fair winds.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
islander.. don't. :)

st. pete islander 02:20 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, I know .... and I know which island ... but I won't tell! :o)

NY 02:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 02:15
Daily.
GL

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Islander// I really do live in the Caribbean. I grew up in this region been here 20 years exactly this june the 1st.

Sydney gvm 02:15 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
NY - what time frame on DX?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SMV// The caribbean is a small region, I am spread all over the caribbean if you know what I mean.. I won't give out specifics on my location apart from that.

st. pete islander 02:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe .... I believe he meant to say .... what was your 10-20 .... which is a 2-way radio code asking for your location. He wants to know if you really live in the Caribbean. The 10-4 is the code for saying 'yes' or afirmative to a question. Must be he was born to late after the C.B. craze. gl

Melb mpfx 02:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GA TJ, my stop came close to being hit, will hold on and see how it plays out, have too.....
Your stuff seems very disciplined, well done....

NY 02:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
USD index looks like head and shoulder formation. Anyone see this?

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
opps..10-20 = location. Gettin rusty.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
10-4 is in Citizen Band radio speak "OK" or "acknowleded" I think what he meant was 10-7 which is "location".

NY 02:06 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Keeping an eye on Aud and Cad for further indication of dollar move. Recently they have bee the pack leaders.
GL

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:05 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP has a weak sell signal ATM.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
SMV// what is the meaning of 10-4?

FWIW! CHF is a weak BUY EUR weak SELL

CHF is stronger signal but i expect them both to equalize soon.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:59 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q// wow! Much lower range eur/usd than I figured in coming months. Tks 4 the heads up. Enlighten me & others...how so please? I'd be much honored to see as I figured we'd see 1.24+ by Oct. TIA.

GA TJ 01:58 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx FWIW my stuff just issued a signal to close short USDCHF so I did for a 7 PIP loss. No new entry signals since.

Dublin CK 01:57 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thks Dr Q

Hong Kong Qindex 01:55 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still good for the next 24 hours.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:41 GMT July 5, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 1.2187 - 1.2211 - 1.2236 - 1.2260 // 1.2285 - 1.2309 - 1.2334 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:46 GMT - Don't be disturbed again when my system is still looking forward to see 1.1550 - 1.2350 trading range in coming months.

Vancouver SMV 01:49 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean, are you actually located in the Caribbean?
What's your 10-4 if you don't mimd saying?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have NO buy signal on eur/usd for now I have immediate support now at 1.2260-70, 1.2230-40, 1.2200-10 and 1.2165-75 at this time. There is more support numbers below but I do not want to confuse with more numbers. One more thing I would like to add this is the summer months coming up and they are usually filled with choppy ranges so I would expect no less at this time. With talk of expiring by the middle of this month there are plenty of land mines (option barriers) all over the upper 2300 and 2400 area to stop a train and it might stop this trend for eur/usd or at least slow it down IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Tks on behalf of all of us Dr. Q...nice to know. Comforting when you agree w/my humble possies. I win. :^>

Hong Kong Qindex 01:43 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:29 GMT - Good morning! I am fine thank you, getting ready to go home on Sunday. EUR/USD : The odds are good for position trader to take a short position as long as the market is below 1.2370.


Hong Kong Qindex 13:24 GMT July 3, 2004
USD Index (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts a projected supporting barrier is positioning at 87.97 - 88.08. If the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through this barrier, the next targeting point is 86.27. A projected resistant level is expected at 89.66 - 89.88. In the mean time I would assume a range trading of 88 - 90.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:31 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
OMIL// no problem, we are here to help each other. you know me better than that. =)

GL.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:29 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex I hope you had a good weekend and have a great week.
Hong Kong Qindex 07:17 GMT July 5, 2004
Your numbers look good by the way your calls were not bad I think the market was caught off guard with the bad numbers and the events in general that happened last week. I believe the contra position for eur/usd would be a short at this time to test the supports which you already stated in your comments and buy on dips for a test of the 2340-50 area IMHO. GL GT

Rafe you got your head straight I know is none of my business but I believe you are doing it right. Keep chopping away at the FX market until you get it right in your sleep. When you have some cushion money put away then you can devote full time to the FX market. BTW have a great week. GL GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:28 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP very weak buy signal ATM.

NY Logic Police 01:20 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
sensible clarification, gl Rafe.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:17 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
logic police... need to feel comfortable first and my job is stable FX most times i can make a profit but in the case i don't profit i break even or have a small loss.. now if trading full time with no other source of income.. i cannot tell my landlord oh! i had a loss i won't be able to pay you your rent this month. i can't tell the light and water companies this either neither can i do this at the supermarkets.

job pays the bills.. FX profits go into my savings account.

your the logic man why not figure it out?

NY Logic Police 01:12 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe - if you can make in a couple hours on your day off what full time traders make in 2 weeks, the question needs to be asked, why do you need a "regular job" in the first place? why not quit, trade full time, make billions of dollars?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:09 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
i'll definately will have to get a datafeed that offers GBP/JPY but like i said programming is going to be a problem.

will have to try finding a way out.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
no signal yet on GBP/USD.. most signals come when i am sleeping.. so i do this.. i trade on the night before my day off and make in those few hours what some people make in 1 week or 2 weeks. sounds like i am boasting but this is what i have been doing.

just made sure my day off is in the middle of the week.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My 44-day cycle reference suggests that a projected supporting point is located at 1.2182.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:13 GMT July 5, 2004
EUR/USD : My 44-day cycle reference indicates that the odds are in favour of taking a short position at the current level. The market is going to vibrate around the quantized level at 1.2307 with an expected magnitude of 1.2246 - 1.2368 for the time being.


Melb mpfx 01:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 00:47 GMT July 6, 2004
Yep just have to keep going, many of times i have entered a trade I did not like but was proven wrong by my system, and of course vice vera... gt

Sydney gvm // thanks gt to u...

LA newbie 01:00 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
rafe ...
what is your view on gbp/usd?

Thanks

GA TJ 00:57 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:51 GMT July 6, 2004

Intellichart has the Email capability built in when an Alert (signal ) is issued. I have used before when I was at another computer. Seems to work fine. The scripting language can be challenging though.

Somewhere on the GVI site is a link to a free trial. You are welcome Jay.

GA TJ 00:53 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ML

Hope life is good. Got any prophetic words of wisdom for the pychologically challenged individuals how trade FX?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
TJ//don't know too much about programming.

Why I ask is that sooner or later I'll be able to send these alerts by e-mail to anyone that thinks it's worth their time..

I'll try to see if i can absorb the costs of doing this though before i start e-mailing them, but have a good friend that is an excel pro and i am doing a little at a time.

what i am really after is GBP/JPY data. can't live without that pair. know what i mean =)

CA 00:51 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Will it effect the Yen during the london trading hours?

ICT ML 00:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, I am an Intellicharts man myself......and TJ is my DDE guru...LOL

yes, GBP-JPY data in Intellicharts works fine.

CA 00:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Dow Jones Newswire just reported that the Bank of Japan said Tuesday the amount of banks' account balance at the central bank increased by Y1.00 trillion from the previous day. http://www.piptrader.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2&get=last#214

houston st 00:50 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
I use CQG, and it uses DDE links..good trades.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:49 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
sheep in a jungle..good analogy. I find comfort in the longer term as it seems (for me) to be more predictable than pip raiding and day trading & therefore more secure. I have a 5 year eur/usd chart on the wall, the 1 year & 30 day to keep things straight w/overall trend. Since overall trend (1 yr and back) of eur/usd is now UP, longing seems less risk than shorting but shorting is what I like best...a decided prejudice I have to fight (or lose), especially now.

GA TJ 00:47 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx 00:43 GMT July 6, 2004

My stuff is screaming Short USDCHF, so I did. However I am always a little unsure of the trade after a prolonged period of flat. You know, those false breaks. Therefore I reduce the size until it proves itself. Otherwise take the loss and move on.

Sydney gvm 00:46 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
melb well put - I totally agree

GA TJ 00:44 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:39 GMT July 6, 2004

Intellichart has the DDE capablility. I just haven't figure out the code to place it into the cells in Excel. So I am using Intellichart Scripting for my systems

Melb mpfx 00:43 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Rafe gt to u...
Fwiw I just went short usd/chf at 1.2342, stop above 1.2370,
Why did I take this trade? because my system told me to..
Am I right?? I have no idea as I am not nostradamus..
FX is the only time in my life when I like to follow and not lead..... gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:39 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
ML// do you know of any data feed provider that offers DDE and GBP/JPY data specifically?

Goes (NL) B747 00:36 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe,

No problem mate, your point is acceptable.


gl & gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:34 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
MpFX// i agree with what your saying. always do LOL!

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:33 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
goes// i got the signal and took the trade. no offence intended but i don't announce the signals for people to trade them blindly..

it's to see if what they have and what i have gels together and if different then we would have to talk it out to see why we both have different results and what could be the outcome.. i guess that can be simplified as market chatter or market emotion.. we are like sheep in a jungle.

Goes (NL) B747 00:27 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe,

Do you think is worth to wait for 109.20 or to take this postion now?


gl & gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:25 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
If beginners are still following this ongoing lesson...SMA 10 40 & 80 are now downturning fixing to cross on 6 hr chart and eur/usd has now likewise SHORTED 20 pips and recovered some and hacking back down...yet unchanged (of course) on 30 day chart that indicates a big long coming up (long term). This is the diff between longer term traders like me who watch the 30 day & 5 day charts, and shorter termers like most on this forum who watch 6 hr-1hr charts. If this is a double peak on 30 day forming now, we've got a short coming regardless of SMAs. Most pros trade both ways..mixing short term with long term...spreading the risk.

Melb mpfx 00:24 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw// as za posted yesterday, Discipline is one of the major keys to trading, very few have, it but ALL need it. As one of the original turtles said ‘ You could place a full page add in the daily newspaper for a trading system that over a period of time was profitable but 90% would fail as they lack the discipline to follow it.’
Whether your system is based on TA, Maths, funnymentals or throwing darts, you must have the discipline to follow it imvho……..
Gl and gt…..

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:22 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
buy USD!

HK [email protected] 00:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
It seems that up to weekend euro may add another 300-points
But needs to break 1.2385/95 first

Goes (NL) B747 00:19 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Rafe,

buy USD/JPy
or
sell USD/JPY


gl & gt

Minnesota U-genius 00:18 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me how far is GBP/JPY going ?
where is the next big resistance?, tia

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:13 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
JPY is a LONG!

ICT ML 00:08 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
regarding the "value" of technical indicators and such........for one to find value/trust in any particular oscilators/indicators, one must first learn and understand the BASIS (formulae) for what they base they signals on ;-)

that should be enough of a hint for the curious....it is called RESEARCH and TRIAL & ERROR......more folks around here should try it some time

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:07 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Book larnin': Contact [email protected] for reading suggestions. He's only been in the money game nearly all his life, let him make a couple suggestions to get started.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:02 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Beginners: my short eur/usd entered last Fri @ 1.2290 has now lost about 18-20 pips as it has also in the last 24 hrs. Not news. Point I make is for DAY/HOUR TRADING, My TA (SMAs) below were correct to close my possie 1 hr ago for zero p/l as suggested to long it. To me makes no diff, I'm in this til it shorts, BB's predicted range goes down to 1.21...a longer term short...didn't enter this possie today but last Fri. So see the diff between longer term guys & shorter term guys...totally different language here. Short termers call me nuts, longer termers don't. Guessing/calculating/factoring/math/TA helps but often doesn't = reality..mkt is mkt, we just try to outguess it using one's developed style.

Goes (NL) B747 00:01 GMT July 6, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 23:53 GMT July 5, 2004


well said/written


gt & gl

 




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