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Forex Forum Archive for 07/08/2004

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ny amc 23:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
just sold gbp/usd at 1.8532 for +16 pips. looks a little heavy here. will look to buy back aroun 1.8490-xx

ny amc 23:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
La.newfxx.....by the way I am no expert

ny amc 23:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
La..newfx.........i just went long gbp/usd at 1.8515 looking for 1.8565-70 with a s/l at 1.8495

Gen dk 22:43 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA newfxx 22:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
I missed the down movement for gbp/usd ..

Any expert could tell which way it will go for tomorrow?

TIA

Tallinn viies 21:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 21:36 GMT - thnks for that.

but now Im going to sleep cu tom

brisbane sunstate 21:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hb Stefan 21:23 GMT
old chinese proverb "He who asks a question is a fool for five minutes; he who does not ask a question remains a fool forever."
gl.

Stockholm za 21:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Economic Releases Updated Thursday 07/08/2004

RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 2.9%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a weak 2.9% in June according to the ICSC chain store index, the weakest growth since last June. Weather and high gasoline prices received much of the blame, although weaker nonwage household cash flow growth also played a role. Sales were generally mixed relative to expectations with discounters disappointing, and luxury and teen retailers and drug stores performing relatively well.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [Korea]: No change
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of Korea left rates unchanged at 3.75%, which was wholly expected. The Korean situation remains unchanged with a strong external sector propping up a dead domestic economy.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Turkey]: 16.5%
FIRST TAKE: Turkish industrial production growth was 16.5% in May on a year-ago basis, up slightly from 15.6% growth in April. On a monthly, non-seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production was up 5.9% from April, reaching a record high.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Germany]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production continued to expand in Germany. Seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 1.1% compared to April. The advance was particularly pronounced for investment goods. Thus, the industrial production data point to a continuing, albeit slow, recovery in Europe's largest economy.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Sweden]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Total industrial production rose 1.1% m/m in May, according to Statistics Sweden, versus an upwardly-revised 2.9% gain in April. Despite the slowdown, activity remains a sharp 7.2% above year-earlier levels.
RELEASE: Monetary Policy [United Kingdom]: 4.50%
FIRST TAKE: The Bank of England held monetary policy constant today. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain its target for the repo rate-the central bank's monetary policy instrument-at 4.50%. This is a pause in the still unfinished process of bridling liquidity, house prices, and general inflationary pressures. We expect another 25 basis point increase at the conclusion of the August meeting.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [Brazil]: 9.5%
FIRST TAKE: Brazilian output surged in May. According to IBGE, Brazil's statistical agency, total output increased 2.2% from April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was strong across the board. Recent data have been volatile, but the report nevertheless raises hopes that Brazil's manufacturing recovery is getting on track.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 310,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims plunged last week, to their lowest level since October 2000, to 310,000. However, the cause for the decline was likely the result of seasonal adjustment factors. Continuing claims fell sharply as well - to 2.872 million.
RELEASE: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey [United States]: 80%
FIRST TAKE: The MAPI index of future business activity set a record for the third straight quarter by increasing two points to 80 in the June survey. Nearly all of the components of the survey rose, indicating that manufacturing output should expand the remainder of this year.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,047 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 109 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 2, slightly above expectations. Thus, today's storage data will have a small bearish impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 305.0 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 2 are mixed. The Energy Information Administration reported flat crude oil stocks and a moderate build in gasoline stocks, while the American Petroleum Institute reported a drop in crude oil stocks and a modest build in gasoline inventories. Overall today's data should be slightly bullish.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $8.2 billion
FIRST TAKE: May consumer credit rose about in line with expectations, with outstandings growing $8.2 billion. Nonrevolving gains were largest.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [Mexico]: 4.4%
FIRST TAKE: Mexican inflation accelerated slightly during June. According to Inegi, Mexico's statistical agency, headline inflation increased 0.16% in June from May, which put prices up 4.4% over the year. Inflation in Mexico is firming, and tighter policy is needed to steady the peso, and prevent higher prices from being captured by expectations.
>>> TDS

This sure beat`s the CRAP .. !! .. ??

hb Stefan 21:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
sorry guys, I made a mistake, I just wanted to thank you for helping me. :), but the other thing came back up. thanks again for taking the time to anwer my questions.

Bruxville Jim 21:20 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Stefan, you are so ... constant:))

hb Stefan 23:05 GMT July 7, 2004
hello, sorry for interupting ur conversation, I am a newbie and I have some q's. where can I find good info to get knowlegeable about the forex market? How would u compare the stock market with forex as far as risk and rewards? thanks in advance for helping me!!!

Mtl JP 21:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Stefan / suggest u use the Archive button to search a bit, same on the HELP forum, (also re-post u r Q there..)

Tallinn viies 21:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hb Stefan 21:13 - use 1:1 ration, never use stops and this market is piece of cake!

buy a book called trading for a living.
set up demo account and shoot

hb Stefan 21:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hello, sorry for interupting ur conversation, I am a newbie and I have some q's. where can I find good info to get knowlegeable about the forex market? How would u compare the stock market with forex as far as risk and rewards? thanks in advance for helping me!!!

Tallinn viies 20:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 20:28 - dont get me wrong...
Im trying to say (also with my position) that top is close. 1,2485 is retracement level where all the world is selling euro calls or buying puts here....
20 pips this or that side doesnt matter.
now it is time to take care of strategic positions.
so, I was saying that all the signs are showing we may see even 1,25 before pressure easying

Antwerp Tom 20:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Viies, still so many traders -and many are jumping blindly on the train - are focussing on 1.25, that imho the big sharks are waiting for the unexpected dramatic shake out. We should all be very careful.

Porto PJT 20:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
interesting hourly channel on gbp/usd, holding for 7 days despite % degree.

Tallinn viies 20:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 20:17 - I think they will push it up to 1,25 and then back to 1,23 imho

Antwerp Tom 20:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Viies, a correction is due. But will it happen at 1.2430, 1.2450 or earlier and on the other hand I thought it would happen at 1.2300 and look where we are now... wish you good luck

Tallinn viies 20:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 20:13 - after US rate decision people got impression that their expectations for quick rate hikes during this year should be revised to much slower pace.
after US numbers indicated short of slowering, people are scared. today after UK decision, people started to revise their UK rate hike outlook also to much slower pace. this may move it now IMHO

Livingston nh 20:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
viies - Britain is trying to slow its economy - the ECB is standing still allowing others to carry the weight - so EUR/GBP may appreciate as MPC moves further on rate hikes// same with EUR/CHF

Tallinn viies 20:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
also what makes me nervous being short euro here are euro crosses. euryen moves higher and higher although all kind of rumours saying big orders to sell are due and so on. this makes me think that someone buying them all what rumoure follower and short term specs are supplying.
also look at eurgbp. yesterday tested last week lows. failed and today broke higher than previous day high. I really wouldnt be suprised if it will close this week near week highs...
fwiw

USA Biscuit Boy 19:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Cool I thought the bandwidth was gone already :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Never mind BB it was just me pushing the wrong buttons.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Chris I trade mid term and intraday when I talk about intraday signal it is off the 30mn 1hr and 2hr charts I also analyze the 5 and 15 min charts too for intraday. Hope that helps.

BB can’t get into your head your website is down LOL. Good job with the website. ;-)

USA Biscuit Boy 19:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
CHF also hanging tough.

PC Beach, FL Chris 19:43 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Miami:

What timeframe do you use to derive signals or trade from intraday with EUR/USD?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
If I may add to my comments I have no intraday sell signal in my system for the eur/usd pair at this time. I will be back with retracement numbers later.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Nice push by the bulls for the eur/usd pair I did not think they had enough firepower. Next level to over come will be the tough 1.2475-85 area. Indicators on intraday and midterm are in O/B territory suggesting a pull back will be favored now for eur/usd pair. Support is found at 1.2360-70, 1.2330-40, 1.2300-10, 1.2265-75 and 1.2225-35 area for now. Resistance is around 1.2430-40 for this pair IMHO. GL GT

GOT PK 19:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
juneau - fiscal politics deal with taxes.

SD tht 19:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Juneau.. when USD is traded against another currency the financial health of the second half of the equation is not irrelevant I guess. Can you elaborate on "Dark Ages Of Thinking", just curious.

Tallinn viies 19:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
this move up doesnt look very nice for bears (like my position is right now).
week amplitude only 150 pips. lower than average (of trading week is also shorter).
week before last week slow stochastic weekly close crossed higher and last week people immideatelly started to buy the euro.
weekly amplitude 260 points and euro moved close to higher bollinger. all this week we have been fighting with the daily higer bollinger...
it seems to me that maybe 50-100 pips are still possible to see higher during this trading week.
thats why Im planning to get rid of my short euro. although Im only 26 points underwater. I guess I will try to grab them back near 1,2350-60 area. and maybe even go long there or near 1,2320/25...
fwiw

Gen dk 19:06 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Biscuit Boy 19:04 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Viktor I am short cable at 40....didn't want to miss out on a chance again.

Valdez the chart looks good but some big names may be interested in keeping us roungebound. It's anybodys guess.

Juneau CAR 19:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Fiscal politics is what drives currencies and gold. If you keep fiscal analysis, which is driven by politics, off of the forum you might as well flip a coin to see what to do.

The USA currency is directly related to USA fiscal policy (i.e. politics), e.g fed action, interest rates, the huge trade deficit and general economic malaise is what most analysts believe will/is holding the dollar down.

"The sophistication with which one solves a hypothesis is dependent upon how many variables one can hold in consideration at any give time"!

I always cringe when I see fractals of the "Dark Ages of thinking".

prague viktor 18:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
BB Good day,1,8548 did you short it on this level BTWtheyen missed your level just with few pips great work mate G/L

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tks Biscuit. I think you'll agree: on big picture 3 yr chart eur/usd safely started the big leg uptrend again, your 1.25+ next way station. I'd bet any dips would probably be relatively small ones (comparitively speaking on 3 yr terms) 100-200 pips.

Porto Azarento 18:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy

EUR/USD will top today at 1.2420 and then i take a short

houston st 18:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
heading out, but wanted to update crude/products:

Aug04 $40.30 +1.22
Sep04 $40.50 +1.30
Oct04 $39.95 +1.06

heating oil: +219/+263/+263
unleaded: +525/+484/+384

USA Biscuit Boy 18:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Valdez euro looking quite strong now......if it closes above 1.2380 it will be hard to knock it off its perch. It is in the middle of my range and has plenty of room both up and down so it is difficult to say.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy//
I see a wedge formation: 6-15 to present - eur/usd chart..your comment about a somersault coming soon..you're uncanny about predictions..your predicted low of 1.2133 would be one juicy short, your predicted high of 1.2512 isn't out of line either. Trading comments on this anyone?

ICT ML 18:26 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Cal.....market treats me the same as anyone else.."fairly"..LOL

I am doing okay, not been real active the past few weeks. Missed getting filled long gbp-usd at 1.8465 today. Thought that was a gimmee entry level today myself...guess not. Not liking the way she stalled out here around lunch though.

Bruxville Jim 18:22 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Crude oil at 39.98$ now.

Tallinn viies 18:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:54 - what about Russia?

GVI john 18:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
We just removed all of the offending posts (I hope!) feel free to have this discussion on the Political Forum.

Tallinn viies 18:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:53 GMT - yep. got to do it now. eur/usd and oil products.

la gold 18:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
I dont make political coments on this forum, unless I am
replying to one appearing on this forum.
Back to forex: euro/$ is a sale @1.2430/40.
$/chf is a buy @1.2180.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:05 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Oilman cable warming up for an olympic sized sommersault? Maybe we will see gbp and euro moving in opposite directions today.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 18:04 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Cairo AG..

GBP/J ...

one more time around 180 ...minimum 188 but then...

will talk again if im right


nk

Global-View 17:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Van jv, point taken.

Van jv 17:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay ////you are right...and that last note was an excellent contribution on deficits, so relevant to Forex: possibly such contribution you might in future replace to political Forum or ask the contributor to do that....just to be fair

Bruxville Jim 17:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
la gold 17:40 GMT // Just say "It will be because it will be" to be a perfect copy of Mr.Bush:))

houston st // no I'm not long Eur/usd. Turning my attention to crosses.

chicago cal 17:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
how have the markets been treating you lately ml?

chicago cal 17:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
as far a trading forex goes; if 1.8605 breaks on cable look for 1.8745 by the end of the week

gt

Bruxville Jim 17:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:54 GMT // That story of RDS oil reserves did get attention back in April:
http://www.forbes.com/2004/04/19/0419automarketscan12.html

KEN HOUSTON 17:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
i am shorting gbp yen on the next upward movement

Antwerp Tom 17:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Went €/$ short 1.2385 while ago. Probably too early, should've waited. GL GT

Global-View 17:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
We have a Political Forum for such discussions. With members from over 100 countries, we prefer to keep politics off the Forex Forum.

Juneau CAR 17:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Right on Bruxville!

Bruxville Jim 17:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
la gold 16:56 GMT // Why do you pray for Bush? Are you keen of cheap greenback and dear oil? Or superlow taxes and superhigh deficits? I don't know whether JFK2 will change this, but I'm quite sure GB2 won't... Am I wrong?

chester wb 16:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
la gold-----you got that right

houston st 16:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:51 GMT -- well, I hope you can tp and vacation worry-free, except for how to spend your $$$...gl.

Rye, NY et 16:57 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
st, thanks. Good point re: products. GL/GT

houston st 16:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 16:48 GMT -- nice chart...I think we'll get there very soon, but others will think otherwise - that's what makes markets...I also thought that whoever has been unloading yen cargo across the board this past week would be finished by now, but still no yen strength (not yet, but it will come)...did you take a long pos on eur/usd? good trades.

la gold 16:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
I hope and pray that the present occupant in the White House
will remain for 4 more years, and then be replaced by another
fellow REPUBLICAN.

Bruxville Jim 16:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold marching above 408 already.

Goes (NL) B747 16:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Just a thought…..

Royal Dutch Shell were misleading investors with reports by mentioning oil/gas reserves that were higher by +/- 25% than the actual reserves – this story never got the attention.

This gap can be fill only with higher oil/gas prices, also few top men of the company left without too much noise around, this is how business is done in Europe and when it will blow only Europe will suffer.
Let’s do not dare to forget the most simple fact, USA is the only country on earth that can go as normal without any imports (including oil/gas).

gt


Ltn th 16:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Martin// Slight differences with large surpluses v's massive deficits?

nyc jk 16:53 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks Viies. you watching that now for your new job?

Gold Coast martin 16:52 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
VAN J...We have record personal debt..just had 2 interest rate hikes,a cooling house market and as yet we had no catastrophe...australia may serve as a little model for you to study and base your predictions...g/t

nyc jk 16:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
st - thanks vm. hope you are right as going on vaca next week and that way won't have to bother checking up on things! cheers

nyc jk 16:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
jv - not disputing the existence of a housing bubble, or the likely outcome of housing prices coming off, was just asking for a bit more background on that publication if you were familiar with it. as Jim points out, does seem to be written in the chicken little the sky is falling type tone. anyway, not to worry cheers.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
For housing prices to collapse wouldn't we need high interest rates or the threat of high rates? Last time I checked Greenspan said the Fed will remain accomodative and really coddle this recovery attempt.

Van jv 16:48 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 16:37 For Sale:
White House, in good area, owner relocating to Texas

I hope your prophesy is right...

Bruxville Jim 16:48 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
houston st // See the link below, it might be the way how 1.2540 target is determined:

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23565&u=contrarian&a=contrarian's&id=497

Van jv 16:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc///you certainly heard about housing bubble---in this kind of ref. its overdone....but its a problem ..timing????
from serious sources"
Bill Gross the portfolio manager of the world’s largest bond fund, writes that even a small rise in rates in a highly debt-leveraged economy such as US could have devastating repercussions

houston st 16:43 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 16:38 GMT--looking to get back above $40 short term...then range bound above $37 for remainder of the year...products/nat gas and event risk will keep it from dropping too far..imho...nat gas will be the next one to get "bulled" up by funds and spec traders..gt.

Bruxville Jim 16:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Van jv //

"The dominoes in this horrific game have already begun to fall..."
"A total of $2.5 trillion - or more - will be wiped away"
"the enormous house of cards" [..] "the entire U.S. financial system is in jeopardy."
"A nightmare scenario has already begun to unfold"
"a collapse far greater than the 1929 Stock Market Crash" -

I don't see any facts here, only a fantastic tale like The Lord of The Rings.

Tallinn viies 16:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:28 - brent up almost 3% and with 1 hour and 30 minutes. they seems to take it seriously
fwiw

houston st 16:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
jk--thanks...I agree w/ the direction...my guess (and it's just a guess, so don't everyone get in a dither) is that you will see that by tomorrow moc NY...good trades.

Rye, NY et 16:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
houston st 16:34 GMT July 8, 2004
What's your view on Crude?
Nymex looks to me like it's banging off Res. in a new Bear Channel setup, looking for a deeper correction---barring event risk, of course. (If so, I would be a buyer of Dollars vs Euros.)
TIA..............

Goes (NL) B747 16:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 16:27 GMT July 8, 2004


what FF means?

Rivonia PipPirate 16:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
For Sale:
White House, in good area, owner relocating to Texas. POA.
To view call Van jv

nyc jk 16:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
st - this is a model based trade and I have no quantifiable way of estimating timeframe, my guess is though early next week?

houston st 16:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:11 GMT--do you have a time frame in mind on this level? tia/gt.

nyc jk 16:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
jv - is the Daily Reckoning a serious research outfit or are they just one of those persistent doom and gloom type reporters like Bill Fleckenstein and James Grant? serious question as I am not familiar with it?

Bruxville Jim 16:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 16:18 GMT // The terror alert was fake - but just in time to help overcome 1.24. What a surprise again...
The core message of all this might be - u.s. don't need expensive dollar before elections.

nyc jk 16:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
looks that way Viies, gold, etc also up. also the DOE inventory figures were relesed today, don't really follow it closely enough to know how much impact that had though?

Van jv 16:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes///////it may be just a mild start ......from spec.report...Daily Reckoning

""After nearly 10 years of unprecedented growth, the bottom is about to fall out of the U.S. housing market. The dominoes in this horrific game have already begun to fall... and the next significant move will come as early as August 10.

A total of $2.5 trillion - or more - will be wiped away. But - as awful as that sounds - that's not the worst of it. Because of the enormous house of cards created by the U.S. government over the past 10 years, the entire U.S. financial system is in jeopardy.

Let me state that another way: A nightmare scenario has already begun to unfold - whether the U.S. government of mainstream media admit it or not - that could collapse not just the U.S. housing market but the entire financial system as we know it. We're talking about a collapse far greater than the 1929 Stock Market Crash - or any of the top 10 financial catastrophes of our lifetime combined"""

Goes (NL) B747 16:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:02 GMT July 8, 2004

please make it to happen even without a gurantee


gt

Tallinn viies 16:18 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
brent is doing fine I guess after terror warning?

nyc jk 16:11 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
they should call this the top pickers forum. still holding longs for EUR 1.2540 fwiw.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 15:42 GMT - We have to wait and see and there is no guarantee.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 15:38 GMT - Good evening!

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 15:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

Still no reason for $ to change direction..

That slow motion fall give hopes $Bulls who are more thirsty in the Summer..BUT......will wait more some months or in the worst 1/2 years..(may be)


nk

Goes (NL) B747 15:53 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
the number of Dutch house owners that cannot pay the loan back during the first six months of 04 is already higher than whole 2003

meanwhile....EUR goes up!!! - German friends tell me even worst stories..!!!


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur from 1.2430 will hit 1.2120...
I sujest you short at 1.2430 and not today..
I think next trading us session..

Goes (NL) B747 15:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q,

you have the skills and the knowledge, and also hold the right to make mistakes in your forecasts.

But, please make this one work :)


gl & gt

HK Byron 15:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:31// Good evening! and agree with you!

Plovdiv Gotin 15:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Kevin/I too sold it 1.2403.

Van jv 15:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL)...yes, we tend to overemhasize US interests...actually ECB and CBs may be in occasionally...........we may all be heading for a bad + recession

Hong Kong Qindex 15:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My 3-month projection profile indicates that a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2388 - 1.2406. The market is negative if it is pulling away from this barrier.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is likely that we have seen a recent high in this month.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
aussie looks good at .7260
NZ at .6600
Nice dives

SD tht 15:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Anybody at all consider this as a well calculated short squeeze above 1.24? The long term Euro trendline from 2001 is coming in roughly around 1.2050, 1.21++ soon, stophunting on fresh longs and that can easily break FWIW.

HK Kevin 15:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 15:09 GMT, something interesting is developing in the 8-hr chart of EUR/$ which may supports your arugment. I enter short positions from 1.2398.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:23 GMT July 8, 2004
I totaly agree my friend (include Mr.Yen)
long term trade is clear to get top level 121.30
let's remember that

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
NDX will hit 1519 next week
Strik 1500 call same month should go by about 25 bucks

HK [email protected] 15:24 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:20 GMT July 8

I accept your logic..or....dollar will gap down like H_E_LL

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:24 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
let's go !!!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
FOR USD/CHF
seen 1.2170 as the extreme bottom get difficultnes to get caused by cross rate eur/chf. Leader chart is eur/usd now for usd/chf chart. maybe before get 1.2170 usd/chf chart will get reversal move.

Bruxville Jim 15:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
G.S. revised forecasts:
"3, 6 and 12-m:
$ 1.2700, $ 1.3200 and $ 1.3200 vs. previous forecasts of $ 1.1600, $ 1.3000 and $ 1.3000.
Y105.00, Y98.00 и Y98.00 vs. previous forecasts of Y115.00, Y100 и Y100.00."

Yeah, they would really like to turn their acquired dollar shorts into huge profits... Let's see how they manage to convince the market.
To put this in some perspective - Mr. Yen expects Y120 between autumn and year end.
And - GS expected euro to vibrate around 1.30 in the second quarter of this year (in their Dec 2003 forecasts). lol.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
1.8640 is what I got for cable..
Yen heading to 107.60
GBP/Yen...heading to 200

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hello all ...
Short euro at 1.2430??

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:20 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
OK..OK..
warning !!!
now all price are on the critical time in trading emotion.
GBP/USD
1.8575 - 1.8612 is the "best level" for sell.
Eur/usd
have entry important band sell level 1.2401 - max 1.2423
Aud/usd
have done band sell level 0.7240-50
Gold have done top level 406.30 to give information pattern to get 379.30 (bottom).
Be carefull chart will be reversal move from all that number.
LET"S SEE
IS ON THE COUNTING DOWN NOW...IN FEW MINUTES AGAIN WILL WORK (my TA)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:15 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
wait...

Goes (NL) B747 15:15 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
quito says : "non leveraged cap" I add "there is no better cap than non leveraged cap"

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:15 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hello friends !!
In my heart I want to give you my "promise" analysis.
Please give attention for your trade now from this !!

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:12 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
one last thing..Biscuit Boy's projected high for the week was 1.2512 and the projected low was 1.2133 if you remember. Right or wrong I'm still short eur/usd from 1.2290. Will add another one big time ($90k in non leveraged cap) when I feel it's peaked.

Goes (NL) B747 15:12 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 15:09 GMT July 8, 2004

good one, 10pips away with such a call, when we meet you drink as much as you want and I will pay...!!! :)


gt

Plovdiv Gotin 15:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
1.2410, if hold E/$ cud visit 1.2045 in a week.

Goes (NL) B747 15:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 15:03 GMT July 8, 2004

you mantion what USA want/need, but the price Europe may pay during each day the EUR is above 1.2200 is too great to afford.

if European officials will not (they will not!) stop this circus than the old continent is dead, my solution says fix EUR/USD @ 1.0700/- and adjust prices every three months in full.

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville// I've seen this many times over many years in stocks..same doohickey...and it is totally unpredictable as to what to do now other than long term longs. I'd stay out for now on eur/usd unless you feel real lucky. It is "supposed" to hit 1.3+ but w/ a lot of up and down. If you flip a coin you'd be about right..that is, nothing. As Biscuit Boy pointed out last week when we were all happy with our euro longs (included me), too many sprain their shoulder while back patting and that the mkt could have just as well headed south as well making losers out of last week's winners and winners out of last week's losers. So be the mkt. Long term longs on this pair will probably win but it takes a lot of hand sitting. Day trading may be even more of a challenge.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:04 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2406 is a projected chart point in my 3-month projection profile.

Van jv 15:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:44 Correct..look at 3 year chart, going likely to 1.32 before CBs intervene (if they've got the beans). But one thing hos, the USA wants and needs a low USD.""""........Sure, and they want good capital inflow...that needs some return on equities and bonds if USD declining....what is ahead? except housing bubble?...

Goes (NL) B747 15:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:56 GMT July 8, 2004

you are so right!
I took today 3 trades in place of the meaning, clicked on buy in place on sell....costs lot of money.
all I am saying is: make a plan and follow it (you know what you make or what you lose) as markets are faster than any adjustment we can make.

I wish you all better trading than I had during the last week!!
gt

HK [email protected] 15:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
407.6-407.9 is an obvious res. for gold.
Daily chart looks ugly for the bulls.

That target and Res. is not an exhaustive one. So if it breaks (chances are there)one has to change his view to gold bull.

I think what I suggested days ago that this trend will lead to 445-455 range.

Bruxville Jim 14:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 14:48 GMT // Right now major market players might be (and will be) having a tough and deadly fight on the future direction of euro/dollar. As one of the forum participants said - expect the exceptional (or unexpected). 50 pips correction is probable but then it maybe can go 50 pips up instead. Remember a saying from a successful stock trader:
When the odds of success don't weigh in your favor - stand aside. But trading with a small leverage is ok even now.

Goes (NL) B747 14:48 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
does anyone see EUR cooling towards 1.2350 or is better to long here for the 1.25++ level??


tia & gt

Goes (NL) B747 14:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:41 GMT July 8, 2004

I am happy to know that you managed to reach your targets, use the profit to make lives better.

About myself, I managed to make mistakes on a level that smiling became more and more difficult :)

gt & gl

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hos 14:31 GMT July 8, 2004//
Correct..look at 3 year chart, going likely to 1.32 before CBs intervene (if they've got the beans). But one thing hos, the USA wants and needs a low USD. It plays right into our hands. EUR is wobbly at best...getting more so...look at things.

ny ts 14:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
can any one give me a good ind9ication in USD/RAND

Bruxville Jim 14:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
fre&twe - aren't you twins?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747//
It is foot kissing time. I promised to kiss your feet once 1.24 eur/usd was reached as I have a sizable investment in euros made at that pirce (a darned CD). Now that I am finally flat instead much to the neg. (whew!) my promise to you amigo shall be considered fullfilled. (Was it good for you?) The forum shall be relieved to know this.

fre 14:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know how to deal in platinum thro censored

twe 14:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hey can anyone tell who holds all this market and who is market maker

hos 14:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
euro is heading towards 1.3000 only market players can stop it jus by opening long positions and if every body feels euro is bound to rise it will surely go down

Roumeli anka 14:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. The real resistance for gold is the 414-415 area, so target for eurusd 1.2540.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
lnd 14:24 GMT - One can easily do a simple calculation. All my projected chart points are interrelated and are separated by a constant or its multiple.


... 1.1960 - 1.2054 - 1.2148* // 1.2243 - 1.2337 - 1.2431 // 1.2525* ...

Rivonia PipPirate 14:26 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro poss ranges:
Weekly: R1/S1(12419-12174) R2/S2(12541-12050)
Daily: R1/S1(12406-12256) R2/S2(12457-12208)

Stockholm za 14:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 14:23 GMT >>>> ......lol
HT.

Goes (NL) B747 14:24 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
it looks like OBL is the best tool of the EUR :)
seriously, the market have higher EUR in mind so it looks like nothing (even facts) can stop the markets wish.


gl & gt

lnd 14:24 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT. chf at lower level than your lower quant level. do you have one below this?

Belgrade Knez 14:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Guys, I know that price went up through 1.24, but no single candle even on 5min chart have been closed above 1.24 (atleast not on my platform).

warsaw mach 14:18 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Osama ready to act in US again.

slv sam 14:18 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 14:07 GMT /
of course :)

Bruxville Jim 14:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 14:14 GMT // My broker had 1.2404 bid.

nyc jk 14:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Knez - EBS hi in EUR 1.2407 fyi

Porto PJT 14:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
talk about US rise terror alert, bank info

slv sam 14:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Jim 14:08 GMT /
I decided only recently to protect my profit...stop now at 1.3350.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Quantized Levels of 44-Day Cycle Reference


... 1.2148 // 1.2243 - 1.2337 - 1.2431 // 1.2525 ...

Belgrade Knez 14:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:09 GMT July 8, 2004

1.24 hasn't been taken yet.

San Diego bobl 14:10 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
sold partial euro/usd and gbp/usd...nice moves that may hesitate here and offer lower resupply

Bruxville Jim 14:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Well, 1.24 was easy...

Bruxville Jim 14:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sam, if you put a stop on the position, you can claim them as well.

San Diego bobl 14:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
I would never claim to "know" the fundamental dynamics of gold. There are very good websites to research gold macinations; www.321gold.com/editorials.html and www.dailyreckoning.com have interesting material on gold. Gold does have supply/demand equation, production balances, gov't reserves, safety valve, ad naseum. I like to look at the chart!

Rivonia PipPirate 14:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:00 50/100ema = free lunch, sweet goose.

slv sam 14:04 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:00 GMT /
mate...you can claim profits only when it is realized..right?.GT

Bruxville Jim 14:00 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:52 GMT // What do you mean by 'paper profit' Demo profit or floating profit on real account?

slv sam 14:00 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:51 GMT May 6, 2004
closed all positions...liquidity raised used to sell $/cad here at 1.3760...will sell only at 1.28..ready to wait for months to realize profits!.GT

patience=waiting=discipline=wealth

venice jw 13:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
san diego. based on sound economic factors, us$ merits historicals lows against euro. is gold becoming a sound alternative, or is it still controlled

perrie como 13:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
well It has always seemed more a bunch of demo traders rather than anything real

slv sam 13:52 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:43 GMT /
sorry overlooked your citing! 4 me fx is few scenario at any time...so i must always remember "be flexible"...so far i have 'paper' profit of almost 600pips :) GT

perrie como 13:52 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
very funny...summer markets where always like this, excet the exceptional...

USA Biscuit Boy 13:52 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
lnd yes that guy looks like a young Mr. Burns lol. Hopefully Friday is a bit more action packed. BBL :)

ln 13:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
judging by the lack of comments on here and a lack of firm views think market is stuck. price action suggests players are not willing to take a bet.

San Diego bobl 13:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold is always considered "safe haven" for potential global strife/surprises. Dollar longs flip to gold when dollar support broken as is case now. Sometimes it leads currencies; other times it follows. Watch the XAU/leading gold stocks for clues.
Correlation to dollar is always worth a look imho.

LA newfxx 13:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
market is barely move..

what happened ?

venice jw 13:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
san diego. is gold becoming a buffer for us$ soft lending

lnd 13:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know where these $ offers are coming from? the way things are being supported suggests more than just 1.24+ on euro. think its better to wait than be smart.

Bruxville Jim 13:43 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:37 GMT // I merely cited a forecast from a major bank. I don't really see in what way going through 1.27 is better than going through 1.2390/10 to 1.12 actually.
1.27 to allow your 1.28 usd/cad target? I already mentioned in the morning why 1.28 is not likely there. lol.

slv sam 13:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:30 GMT /
your target can be acheived but only after 1.27 imho.GT

San Diego bobl 13:32 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
added euro/usd at 70 per previous post; will offer some mid-90's for probable defense of 84; will reload sellers on second or third test; gold acting as good companion last couple days; seems to know more than the pairs at the moment

lnd 13:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
you know the man on the banner above. he has the most scary grin i have ever seen. if it had not been for the text i would have thought it was an add for a horror film.

anyway. tempted to short euro but the thing just keeps meeting bids. everyone wants a bit of the action on dips. might wait until after the break to put on poss. now i am just watching.

Bruxville Jim 13:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
rbs:
It is highly probable that 1.2410/20 will cap euro's rise. Medium term target 1.1200, unless 1.2550 is breached.

Houston, TX Fxopt 13:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Agree EUR/$ should visit 1.24 sooner rather than later, but think it with take some time to break it.

Antwerp Tom 13:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Shouldn't €/$ have gone at least to test 1.2320 after these better than expected jobclaims? And if not, are we going to visit 1.2400 soon? Long 1.2367 GL GT

Bruxville Jim 13:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hk po 12:56 GMT // Today price was capped by ichimoku cloud base at 109.15. 100 dma stands at 109.26.

Bruxville Jim 13:11 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold has posted a new high since April 19 - 405.36$

Livingston nh 13:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - seems that since last Friday's US employment report the USD has been trading (fundamental side) on a slower Fed and lower interest rate expectations -- this is the headline stuff from analysts and economists (large firms and banks) -- the Fed is beyond the employment figures so better to focus on inflation and GDP (effect of deflator) // the measured Fed is factored in so the risk is the Fed reverts to form

Bruxville Jim 13:05 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:03 GMT // They do get done usually, but this time there are bids instead...

Nottingham 13:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:01 GMT

I'm not predicting, but big stops usually get done...down and up can't be ruled out...gl gt

Eilat Dolphin 13:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
BOOTSY: Digital risk is when we get our fingers burned due to a too heavy exposure to fX radiations. I guess.

Bruxville Jim 13:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 12:57 GMT // Large bids at 1.3170/80 as far as I know. And see weekly chart...

melbourne farmacia 12:59 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bugger... missed 1.8465 gbp entry by few pips.. my current trade range fwiw 1.8379 - 1.8465 - 1.8517 and 1.8603. GT

NAIROBI bootsy 12:59 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Does any one know what digital risk exposure is ???? its something to do with currency options.

San Diego bobl 12:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
imho...it is not good to take any position solely based on anyone else's opinion; if shorting follows a rule set or method defined by your research/experience, then obviously yes: personally i am long the pair based on my method

Nottingham 12:57 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...making its daily run at 3180...big stops below...gl gt

hk po 12:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hi there.... any idea where yen is headed for? seems like studies are going down but still the price is sticking... thanks

hk ark 12:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
is it good to short euro @1.2360

NY,NY GFX_PWS 12:53 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
current trading range in cable looks like 1.8548 up and 1.8512 on the downside..we see a break above 8550 hello 86. 1.8450 looks like the next major resist on the downside after the figure. That scenario looks a little less likely in the current situation.

San Diego bobl 12:47 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
late on cable...small lot long gbp/usd 1.8530 adding on test of 85 potentially depending on interaction of pairs

nyc jk 12:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Jim - I agree with that.

Bruxville Jim 12:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Currently seems some solid buyers used great u.s. data to sell-off dollars. Another stop run ahead (1.24,1.86)?

San Diego bobl 12:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
taking entry lot of eur/usd...1.2350; if pivot area holds and we clear 2-hr flag [email protected] 1.2370 will add; pivot fails on held trade then stop and look to reload; low risk

NYC NYC 12:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville. Note the lack of market reaction to the claims data. This tells you there is likely a seasonal distortion.

Bruxville Jim 12:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Andras, it's OK.

NY,NY GFX_PWS 12:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
310 new 2872 continuing claims

Bruxville Jim 12:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
News:
Some say that seasonal issue have caused the drop, but the sharp fall in continuing claims (to 2.87 mln from 2.95 mln) may be an even more bullish item for the dollar.

Pecs Andras 12:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Jim
That is right, I misread your post

Bruxville Jim 12:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
-39k to 310k (from 349)

Pecs Andras 12:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
JIm
What I raed is a fall to 310K
What is the correct number?

Bruxville Jim 12:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
-39k against forecast -11

Goes (NL) B747 12:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Is there a chance of 100-150pips moverment from 1.2350 still today in case date is --250 or 450++....

gt

Aden PK 12:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Refer my post of yesterday, close Aud/Usd @.7185 now long @.7177 stop at .7135 offered, will add on dip @.7150 stop .7100 offered, take profit open

Nottingham 12:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
one view is to expect +/- unchanged which will serve to weaken dollar...also recommends fading moves to 1.86 and 1.24 fwiw...gl gt

warsaw mach 12:20 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
I would rather expect claims around 380k

Rio 12:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Any internet site with REAL TIME data news? My platform uses to delay 2/3 minutes and then is too late!

Livingston nh 12:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
US jobless claims (Jul 3) may be low because of the Fourth of July holiday - these numbers will likely stay in the 315K to 345K range for the next few months

LAX-LGB SNP 12:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 09:13 GMT July 8, 2004

most prefer to chat one-on-one after NYC close or Asia open -i used to 'network-chat' with a lot of ppl @ once but it eventually turned into a noisy bar with little objectivity so everyone backed out eventually

Bruxville Jim 12:05 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Very good claims (say <325) might initiate massive profit taking on dollar shorts while bad claims shouldn't have much followthrough (as they usually aren't very influential). lol

Belgrad kz 11:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
For the Initials claims I see market expectations between 340-345K, but some analysts forecasts are for claims around 325K.

CAIRO AG 11:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Saloniko: Good day.... whats ur thought on GBPYEN?

Thanks

GL & GT

Bruxville Jim 11:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
NY // [11:00 MPC Leaves UK Base Rate Unchanged at 4.5%, As Expected] Minutes from the meeting will be published on July 21.

PAR 11:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
With European interest rates at recession levels european consumers dont believe the ECB s talks about european economic recovery. Too low interest rates favor production factor capital over production factor labor, induce unemployment,and lead to collapsing internal demand while inflation is running out of control. Trichet will never see inflation like he never saw problems at Credit Lyonnais.

orlando 11:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
...Looks like market anticipating drop in US jobless claims for June...if claims # surprises higher...eurousd goes beyond 2400...if lower than 341k...she heads for 2300...my 2 cents !

NY,NY GFX_PWS 11:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone catch BoE statment..hawkish or dovish?

hk ark 11:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
any data out in germany and u.k

Bruxville Jim 11:32 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Currently the market seems to be awaiting a catalyst for a substantial move. Maybe Jobless Claims can help today?

Bruxville Jim 11:25 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sam, why are you so sure about 1.28 $/C$? Hope you have stops to lock in profit on your position though.

slv sam 11:22 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
imho..selling aud/yen here at 78.35 can be rewarding for short term.GT

Rivonia PipPirate 11:12 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tata, sorry, only joking, I can not speak Serb, dovidyenja(google):-)

EU ZORRO 11:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...

....150/155 EURJPY...It's my target for year end....!!!!

Bruxville Jim 10:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:49 GMT // See USD/Cad weekly chart - we may have already completed (or maybe still get down to 1.30/31) the downmove to draw a nice long-term inverse H&S. Next move might be from 1.30/32 to testing (and eventually breaking) 1.40. Take care.

prague viktor 10:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++:yes mate,what Im looking for is 150-160,230-240,115-120,that is my tgt what you say about it..G/L

Bruxville Jim 10:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
DXB Maldine 10:39 GMT // Rather yes, if you are trading with a healthy leverage. IMHO.

slv sam 10:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 10:39 GMT /
I am certain $cad reaching 1.28 this year...however...I am hoping it happens by autumn...already I got 500pips profit ..but keeping my target for 950pips profit :) GT

Stockholm za 10:47 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
There is a thin spider tred between the trader & the forecaster..
As is written by the spider in his journal - The Trader Verses the Forecaster.... fwiw

Brisbane Tata 10:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate, mate I haven't received your mail.

DXB Maldine 10:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim, should I remain short (pos 1.8511)? or get out before the BOE decision?

Bruxville Jim 10:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:36 GMT // I'm sorry to say that, but hoping is the last thing you should do in this market.

KL KL 10:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 10:34 GMT July 8, 2004 ..I agree..exited short gbpusd and eur toooooo early. Oh well looking to long later tonight

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 10:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..


Anyone see E/J around 155+-?

Zorro the most funny goal was frome Jimmy the Jump..lol


nk

slv sam 10:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden mas 10:15 /
Thanks...but i shall wait for 1.28 by autumn i hope! GT

Bruxville Jim 10:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
London opening today gave a hint that it will be a down day for Cable.

Belgrade Knez 10:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
eur?4 = eur/$

Belgrade Knez 10:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden mas 10:15 GMT July 8, 2004

Raden, If you see usd/cad going up, do you see eur?4 going down at the same time?

LA newfxx 10:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
raden mas:
gbp is moving to 8676?
Are you confident in this?

Sydney Alimin 10:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
thx Dr Q, appreciate your input very much at the right time

Indonesia solo Raden mas 10:15 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:13 GMT July 8
USA/CAD buy now.If you are short , cut and reverse now. You will see 300 pips move up next.

Indonesia solo Raden mas 10:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EURO/AUD at 1.7225, buy now.I am confidence to get 1.76 soon.

slv sam 10:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden mas /
Any opinion about $cad.TIA.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 10:11 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 10:08 GMT - Will let you know later in an appropriate time.

bombay a 10:10 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks geneva fhr

Sydney Alimin 10:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, how hard/easy is it for euro to go to 1.2174?

Indonesia solo Raden mas 10:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd when at 1.8499.
my forcast map moving : 1.8676 (sell level) and then down to 1.8102 and then up to 1.8548 and then down to 1.8086 and then up again form there...
Good currency for today for paying lapdancers tonight.
GL/GT

Hong Kong Qindex 10:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:03 GMT July 8, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of 5-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.2112* - 1.2143 - 1.2174* - 1.2205 - 1.2235* // 1.2266 - 1.2296* - 1.2327 - 1.2358* - 1.2389 // 1.2419* ...

GENEVA FHR 10:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
german may industrial output up adj 1.1%

bombay a 10:00 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
any idea on german data out at 10.00 gmt? anybody?

Belgrade Knez 10:00 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
lnd 09:57 GMT July 8, 2004

no problem. :)

lnd 09:57 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 09:03 GMT. My appologies. Did not see post.
gl & gt to you.

hk ab 09:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
exited the aud/jpy bought with 30 pips.

Dublin Flip 09:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
You know what they say nemo ...
if US investys liked selling them @ 1.81 they must love selling @ 1.85-LOL

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Big invest name in NY seems GBP above 1.85 as exellent sell opportunities...

Udine Cael 09:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 09:20 - 53 = range trading

Bruxville Jim 09:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
-//-A study by Oxford Economic Forecasting suggests that a 10% drop in UK house prices between now and the end of 2005 would cut UK economic growth from
3.0% this year to 0.7% in 2006--if the BoE failed to respond with interest rate
cuts (Times).-//-

Hong Kong Qindex 09:24 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:23 GMT July 8, 2004
AUD/USD : Quantized Levels of 5-Day Cycle Reference


... // 0.6856 - 0.6950 - 0.7044 - 0.7138 - 0.7233 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:43 GMT July 8, 2004
Hong Kong Qindex 01:42 GMT July 8, 2004
AUD/USD : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 0.7051* - 0.7104 - 0.7156* - 0.7209 - 0.7261* // ...

Belgrade Knez 09:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 09:16 GMT July 8, 2004

LOL. Your Serbian is perfect. LOL

Nottingham 09:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Nemo, gbp may weaken a little as there is a small chance of a rise in the market (about 3 basis points priced in)...however, assuming cable is around 8500 at the time, it should find enough demand at 8451 to steady itself...gl gt

Plovdiv Gotin 09:20 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Udine/Range 1.2390...1.1760?

Rivonia PipPirate 09:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane Tata 09:11 odgovorio sam ti na mail. Sorry chasps just brushing up my Serbian, the Tribe has spoken. Meanwhile $CAD daily bollingers being squeezed in a vice, ouch.

Udine Cael 09:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 08:57 = range trading

Gen dk 09:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
What will be reaction if BoE left rate unch?? TIA for your opinions

Tallinn viies 09:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
guys I have question to you.
Global-View Forum is the best on FX side.
I need as good forum or chatboard for energy. Can you help me out?

thnks in advance

Brisbane Tata 09:11 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys,
by any chance anybody from Belgrade on the forum?

Gen dk 09:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Belgrade Knez 09:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
lnd 08:49 GMT July 8, 2004

as you can see from my previous post I have appologize already to everyone, and we have make connection outside forum.

Plovdiv Gotin 08:57 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro 1.2391...1.1760=18 days/ 1.1760...1.2391=53 days.

Gen dk 08:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd EM 08:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Outflow Of EUR Expected With Bond Maturities Looming

lnd 08:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade guys. come on...why dont you just meet up or phone each other up at local cost? email/messenger is another option...censored there are so many options much better than forcing us to endure your chit-chat.

Belgrade Knez 08:47 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim and others,

sorry for the bit of Serbian lenguage on the forum. It will not happen again, we just establish connection outside forum. Sorry again.

Dublin Flip 08:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
knez you can probably use the missus' hair-dryer to mop up that keyboard mate-LOL

Bruxville Jim 08:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
C'mon Belgrade guys - everyone's fed up with Serbish language here already...

Belgrade Knez 08:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
belgrade techno 08:27 GMT July 8, 2004
odgovorio sam ti na mail. Na netu sam do 6 po podne a mozda i duze, pa opet od ponoc za otvaranje azijske berze.

Nottingham 08:33 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
LA newfxx 08:14 GMT

supply expected at 8570-8600...gl gt

belgrade techno 08:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 07:51 GMT July 8, 2004
imao sam problem sa internetom - kablovski
odgovorio sam ti na mail
skinucu kasnije yahoo mesenger
do koliko si na netu

Gen dk 08:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA newfxx 08:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
notthingham:
what is the target for cable in your opinion?

Thanks

London 08:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
brisbane L......there are aud options expiring today at 7200 and 7250

Nottingham 08:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
cable...support expected at 8451 again...gl gt

Bah BAHRAIN1 08:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn,viies(07.29GMT)/// Many thanks mate, Good luck to u and have a great day.

Vilnius georgas 07:57 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
to Brisbane L 07:51 GMT

Vilnius georgas 07:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
i would say, there is no such thing as overvalued or undervalued. the price is counting any single factor wich might impact price. If you know that in current situation price is overvalued, than you are a GOD. You should make millions.

Sydney Alimin 07:53 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
1.2345/50 looks like a pretty good support for euro bulls to advance to 1.24xx area...maybe data tonight will determine whether we are going higher to 1.24xx or going down to see 1.22xx area again

Belgrade Knez 07:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
belgrade techno 07:41 GMT July 8, 2004

Poslao sam ti e-mail.

Brisbane L 07:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
PricewaterhouseCoopers suggested that house prices in the U.K. are overvalued by as much as 40% and could fall by as much as 10-15% in the next four to five years.

Athens 07:49 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Re my w/e analysis (posted on Sunday evening), EUR/$ got positive bias when it moved above 1.2350 but he big monthly 1.2385 discussed in the analysis still caps the upside and is worrisome for EUR bulls as long as it stands. If cleared decisively, targets to watch are 1.2480 and 1.2540. A move under 1.2100-50 turns the sentiment negative for EUR again. Good luck.

belgrade techno 07:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
ne ali koristim
[email protected]
windows messenger

Brisbane L 07:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Large 0.7160 Option Expiries Today

Belgrade Knez 07:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
belgrade techno 07:33 GMT July 8, 2004

Ja sam na Zrenjaninskom Putu. Imas li Yahoo messenger?

PRague IB 07:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
clonakilty Thanks

clonakilty glenn 07:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   

IB - 12:30 GMT

KEN HOUSTON 07:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
never you fall in love with any particular currency do not hold any currency for long . just look at aussie for three days now this currency was a darling now look at what they are doning to it. men

PRague IB 07:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
can be, it would be enough for me to make +100... when do they announce the US unemployemnt, does anybody know???..

belgrade techno 07:33 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 07:23 GMT July 8, 2004

Yes, I live in Belgrade.

Tallinn viies 07:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Bah BAHRAIN1 07:08 GMT 1,2435/50 area will cap it with 90% probability in my view.

Bruxville Jim 07:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
PRague IB 07:21 GMT // Maybe, but then we'll see whether 1.24 E/$ or 1.24 $/Chf...:)

belgrade techno 07:26 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
terazije

Belgrade Knez 07:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
belgrade techno 07:21 GMT July 8, 2004

Cao techno. You in Belgrade now?

PRague IB 07:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
when should they announce the US unemployment data today?

as they do so we are above 1.2400....you see

belgrade techno 07:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hi
belgrade knez

Belgrade Knez 07:18 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
PRague IB 07:13 GMT July 8, 2004

Oh, I see you got the help very quick. Good for you. :-)

Bgd 07:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
PRague IB 07:09 GMT July 8, 2004

You poor guy.
I know is not your fault, it's mother nature, so I forgive you.
Go and look for some doctor help.

MONACO OGA 07:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 08/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2360), 10 pips higher than yesterday opening. USD kept a weak tone across the board, due to long USD positions still being unwinded by traders revising their expectations of future US agressive monetary tightening. EUR/USD seems to be well supported around 1,2270. Overnight 1,2390 was printed. Our short term view has not changed, we believe 1,2350-1,2400 will provide enough resistance on the upsides, and now that the market has gone long, we will be looking to build up short positions, however we will closely monitor the US unemployment data later today, with a figure above 350K most likely to propel the pair above 1,2400. Support still at 1,2280. Othe medium term, we need to adjust the upper barier of our expected range, 1,2350-1,2450 likely to provide resistance chartwise, so we still believe the market will hover inside 1,1750-1,2400 for some time.

Data out today:

UK BOE rate announcement expected unchanged at 4,50% 08.30 GMT
Ger Ind prod May expected 0.2% 10.00 GMT
US initial jobless claims expected 342k 12.30 GMT

Gold at 400,50, with WTI August at 39,19.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (108,90). The pair rebounded yesterday on 108,15, a fistfull of pips ahead of our 108 supportive zone. Another negative NIKKEY performance (-0,5%) kept JPY from appreciating too much against USD and traders are still cautious ahead of sunday parliamentary election. We still like to build up long positions around 108 supportive zone for a retracement to 109,60 resistance before 110, a level we have been calling since last week. The big picture is unchanged with the pair hovering inside 107-112.
EUR/JPY currently 134,60. The cross is consolidating inside 133,50-135,00.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8520), printed a high of 1,8578 yesterday on related string of stop buy orders above 1,8500. 1,80-1,85 has been containing the market since the end of May untill yesterday, we think this spike above is a market exageration and therefore still believe playing the range remains a valid strategy so we'll be looking to sell rallies today. Support for the day at 1,8420 with resistance above 1,8580.
EUR/GBP (0,6675), reflecting GBP's strenght. The cross traded at 0,6660 where support emerged. We remain neutral for the time being as long as we stay inside 0,6640-0,6730.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Syd smack 07:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Good evening. tst

PRague IB 07:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
sorry I meant 1.2400 to be reached today....:-))

PRague IB 07:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
You really believe that EUR will get down?...I expect 1.4000 to be reached today...

Bah BAHRAIN1 07:08 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn, Viies/// Good day to u mate, Where you see the top for the EUR$ today pls? GL.

Hi frnds good day to u all.

Tallinn viies 06:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
good morning! after hard work bulls looks bit tired. no?
we need to break 1,2345/50 level to get going. first minimum target down there is 1,2320/25.
then 1,2270/75. lets rock !

KEN HOUSTON 06:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
to much choppy trading on cad usa anything might happen too early for me to determine the direction i will stay on the side line and wait .l

Belgrad kz 06:48 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi, any opinions for USD/CAD? I think it is ready for 1,3290-1,33 at least. If this is taken, then we will see 1,3400-10!
What do u think guys? TIA and GL to all

KL KL 06:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
KL PJ 05:38 GMT July 8, 2004
Current trend is against US$....so no difference just the time to wait for it to go down to long. Time is money....action can be taken at both end....

KEN HOUSTON 06:37 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
houston st please i like to discuss something with u

KEN HOUSTON 06:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
guys guess what i dont listen to news anymore , infact i dont look at the price of what i am trading , i only watch my indicators for entry and exit point infact the indicators do show the trend of a particular currency pair i want to trade

Spr Noods 06:31 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Tim thanks did not mean to poke
we got stops below...

Bgd 06:27 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
test

Sydney Alimin 05:41 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
one could also ask how high is high and how low is low

Sydney Alimin 05:40 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
hi or low is very subjective....one's hi might be other's low and vice versa

KL PJ 05:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
KL KL... what's the different for you to short at high vs long at low?

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:29 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Im hearing talk of sellers in aud/yen at 78.50, currently 78.38/43

Syd EM 05:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD the past few days that is presumed to be linked to an M&A transaction talk that the large buyer
was finished and this helped to encourage profit taking.
Option related selling interest ahead of a 0.7250 barrier and the 0.7245/50 is very good resistance as well. This level is the 38.2 fibo of the 0.8007/0.6775 move and also happens to be the top of the ichimoku cloud. Traders feel that the market is long on the break of 0.7200 and short-term specs have
left stops below 0.7185. newswire

KL KL 05:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Things that goes up will eventually come down...I prefer to short at higher levels rather that buy high sell higher. No one wants strong dollar so some "magic" hands will be in play to make sure it stays at a certain range. Cover short on EURUSD at 1.2355...waiting for it to try again at 1.24 to short again....Lets face it EURope also not in good shape compared with US or Japan

houston st 05:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
*DJ Japan May Core Machinery Orders Up 8.8% On Year(DJ)

houston st 05:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
*DJ Japan May Core Machinery Orders Down 2.1% On Month(DJ)

Washington Greenspan 04:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   

Evening traders. I was just putting the cat out ( don't like pussy cats on my bed )
Anyway remember my Quote from few months back.. " no model for predicting currency movements beats flipping a coin, bank traders who claim special insight are deluding themselves. " Ok see u all in december for another rate spike.

Good night

Singapore Sfx 04:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Fair enough. Good luck with it, Martin.

Gold Coast martin 04:42 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
SINGAPORE SFX..that is corrcect..I have been on this path since aud was 78-79 and euro 129....g/t

Singapore Sfx 04:38 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin. Guess I misunderstood your timespan for trading. Or the plan anyway. Which is partly, I guess cos its a different trading horizon to mine.
So just so I understand this rite , you're suggesting playing the next six or so months -
a) accumulating aud shorts with 85 cent stop (or stop & reverse?) for 57 cent target
and
b) accumulating eurusd shorts with 1.4/1.5 stop (or stop & reverse) for 1.0/1.10 ?
Thanks.

wisconsin tim 04:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods 04:30 GMT July 8, 2004

beats me, just reporting commentary from my platform since there were some people in the forum calling for shorting euros

Gold Coast martin 04:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
SINGAPORE SFX....as with any system a precise timespan is hard to ascertain...yes these ranges will come back into the scenario soon(by tomorrow..).As far as my USD bias is concerned it will change when aud is trading at 57 by december 2003 and euro is at 110 or parity level by same date..that has been my long term strategy....Should euro reach 140-50 range and aud 80-85 by 30th of december then i am obviously wrong and long term strategy will change....good trades...

Spr Noods 04:30 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
lows 49 on Euros
if there are tonnes of bids why is it here? 55-57

Singapore Sfx 04:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Martin - In what way does that still apply pls mate ? We're trading outside those ranges as we speak ... I suppose you reckon we'll enter back into 1.2050-1.2200 and 6980-7150 soon - . May I ask what lvls, if any, will get you to abandon a bullish usd bias ? Thanks and good luck.

Gold Coast martin 04:17 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 09:44 GMT July 5, 2004
Good evening...in the short term euro to pull back to 12080 in next 3 days while aud back to 7045..medium term (END OF JULY] euro trading between 12050-122 and aud 6980-7150...Long term downward bias still exists for both pairs...new downward trend will not emerge until 2 or more measured fed rate hikes condition the market to accept more realistic payroll figures and abandoning the high expectations of 250-300 figures consistently.. the above medium trading ranges will remain with us for another 2 months...will post short day trade opportunities within these medium trading ranges when market gets some liquidity into its vains tomorrow...g/t

Good afternoon...above post still applies...g/t

)toronto( Dr Unken Katt 04:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
couse rafe is short , but i see 3 completely empty candles on 1hr,aaahh

nyc sa 03:59 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rafe , why do u see euro falling tonite ?? any particular reason ?

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
i believe euro will short like a dog tonight..

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 03:51 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
well euro short was when it hit the upper BB at 9pm ...85

now is too late euro is laying dead on the lowr BB or quantisized level

ICT ML 03:47 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
JK if around, any NY chatter about what Big George (or better yet "Old George"..LOL) and /or WB are up to these days regarding the $?

Last year this time we were at least entertained by the story of "The Three Biggest Sharks" and super secret BNP Paribas dealing desk info........those were the days I tell ya...Hahaha.....

is Bankok Bkk still around these days?

hk ab 03:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, your calm and objective analysis is always what I appreciated and dying for. THANKS!

Really busy now.

NV Newbie 03:46 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Some traders took short positions with a profit in the morning. http://www.piptrader.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=3&PN=1&TPN=3
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=34925

wisconsin tim 03:35 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD - for those going south ...
While reports of downside stops are tempting, a contact reports thick bid orders, reportedly in blocks of several hundred millions, being placed under 1.2350

if reliable ... picking a top might be premature

Rio 03:23 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Montreal!

Chicago YM 03:21 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
censored

Montréal Taro 03:19 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rio de Janeiro 03:03 GMT July 8, 2004

www.freewebs.com/biscuitfx/index.htm

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
geez, what am i doing wrong?

sell euros means to short euros isn't it?

no offense but want to correct myself.

)toronto( dr.unken kat 03:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 02:45 GMT July 8, 2004
FWIW. EUR- Sell confirmed.

which is what ? long or short

Rio de Janeiro 03:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
USA biscuit...and your web page is? Thanks

Brisbane 03:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
The Moral of the story?

The a.s.s hole is usually in charge.

Brisbane L 02:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Its a bit quiet in Asian

BODY MEETING
All the organs of the body were having a meeting, trying to
decide who was the one in charge."I should be in charge," said the brain, "because I run all the body's systems, so without me nothing would happen". "I should be in charge," said the blood, "because I circulate oxygen all over so without me you'd all waste away." "I should be in charge," said the stomach," because I process food and give all of you energy."
"I should be in charge," said the legs, "because I carry the body wherever it needs to go." "I should be in charge," said the eyes, "because I allow the body to see where it goes."
"I should be in charge," said the rectum, "Because I'm
responsible for waste removal." All the other body parts laughed at the rectum and insulted him, so in a huff, he shut down tight. Within a few days, the brain had a terrible headache, the stomach was bloated, the legs got wobbly, the eyes got watery, and the blood was toxic. They all decided that the rectum should be the boss.

The Moral of the story?

The censored hole is usually in charge.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
CHF- buy

USA Biscuit Boy 02:55 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sydney check my page first and you will find the projected hi for my probable range this week is closer to your number than you think.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW. EUR- Sell confirmed.

Sydney 02:39 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 02:05 GMT July 8, 2004
I don't subscribe to Dr Q but his .7260 is close enough to my number. Your weekly reference levels looks ok, but they should be used with care during trending markets. strong trends don't just stop & reverse at some pre-calculated levels. good luck

Beijing Laowen 02:15 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Q, Thank you very much.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the following is still valid in Asian session.


Hong Kong Qindex 12:39 GMT July 7, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2258 - 1.2354 and the mid-point reference is 1.2306.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:42 GMT July 7, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.2213 // 1.2244 - 1.2275 - 1.2306 - 1.2337 - 1.2368 - 1.2399 // 1.2430 ...


My 44-day cycle reference indicates that a projected barrier has been established at 1.2370 - 1.2375.

Cairo Amgad 02:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q is one of the best analyst here, you take his quantized levels and buy/sell (bullish/bearish) recommedation and decide your entry and exit points on your own. You can log on in login products on the upper right and chose QINDEX to view his levels. I think it provides free trail too.

GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 02:10 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 02:07 GMT - Yes, I use my system for position trading. It is doing okay so far.

Beijing Laowen 02:07 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Doctor Q, I am being curious about some automatic forex trading systems. As your predicting system has been working well, may I ask if you are trading your own money based on the results of your system? How about its performance? Could you make consistent profit using your system? Maybe my question is imprudent. You can ignore it should you feel uncomfortable. Thanks.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:06 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, I am long dollar yen meaning I am buying USD and selling JPY.

maybe my use of terminology since recently is being changed...

USA Biscuit Boy 02:05 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 01:53 GMT July 8, 2004

0.7120 was a level for me from last week. I don't subscribe to Dr Q.....hope it is working for u tho....good trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:42 GMT July 7, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are 107.58* - 108.49 - 109.40*. The key quantized level of my monthly cycle is positioning at 107.58.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:02 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 02:00 GMT - Are you long yen or dollar yen?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:00 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, I am long on yen am I on the right side or should I have been short instead?

I ask just out of curiosity of your views on this pair.

TIA.

Beijing Laowen 01:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, first Usd/Jpy buy signal was generated when it was in 108.50~60 area. Now it needs to retrace a bit. I am planning buy again but am waiting.

Beijing Laowen 01:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd is very very bullish. Those who are about to short this pair should be very cautious~

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
got a buy signal for JPY...

Hong Kong Qindex 01:56 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The mid-point reference of 0.7209 - 0.7261 is 0.7235.

USA Biscuit Boy 01:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Newfxx gbp looks strong....I am shorting it for the value....I believe if it cannot sustain above 1.85 it should fall all the way back to 1.8000 and maybe even 1.75 in coming weeks.

Sydney 01:53 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 01:20 GMT July 8, 2004 LOL I don't think everyone is looking to screw you for an aud/usd reversal. btw .7120 is a nothing level. Hong Kong Qindex 0.7261* good number

LA newfxx 01:50 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
biscuit boy:

what is your view on gbp/usd?

U trade this pair?
Thanks

Syd EM 01:45 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
The number of people in full-time work rose 39,300 to 6.936 million in June, from 6.896 million in May.
The number of people in part-time work fell 43,100 to 2.715 million in June, from 2.758 million in May

Australia's unemployment rose to a worse-than-expected seasonally adjusted 5.6% in June from 5.5% in May. The number of employed fell 3,800, below expectations,

(Australian Bureau of Statistics )

Hong Kong Qindex 01:43 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:42 GMT July 8, 2004
AUD/USD : Monthly Cycle Quantized Levels


... // 0.7051* - 0.7104 - 0.7156* - 0.7209 - 0.7261* // ...

Eilat Dolphin 01:34 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Syd.

nyc jk 01:33 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
full time employment +39,300 though...

Eilat Dolphin 01:33 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit, give a cooky to Syd so that he shares his number, please.

Syd 01:32 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian June Employment -3,800; Consensus +27,500
Australian June Unemployment Rate 5.6%; Consensus 5.5%

nyc jk 01:28 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks Biscuit Boy...just curious. obviously this number will set the near term tone... still long here, expecting AUD to hold .7180 ish even on a bad number. gl

ML - think we are good for at least a run to .7350/60....M+A related interest to buy, real money buying, models starting to turn should be good for at least a bit more IMO.

USA Biscuit Boy 01:20 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
LOL with everyone looking for an aud/usd reversal I may be screwed on my short!

Syd 01:18 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD completing an irregular consolidation 7255 that commenced at 0.6795 low mid-May, and vulnerable to reversal

USA Biscuit Boy 01:16 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 23:34 GMT July 7, 2004

Sorry for the late reply......covered my eur/usd short so I can hold aud/usd short up to 0.73. Short cable, gbp/jpy and long eur/gbp as well so basically betting pound will tank in next 2 days.

Sydney 01:14 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc .7240/50 is formidable regardless of whatever short term fundamental development.

Syd EM 01:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
U.S. firms expect business to remain strong even if Fed triples rates over next 18 months, shows National Association for Business Economics poll; almost half of 104 corporate planners, analysts surveyed say business won't be hurt even if federal-funds rate hiked to 3.5% by end-2005
Survey further reveals 37% say their company profits up in 2Q, which largest proportion since 1987
NABE.

ICT ML 01:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
JK...you think Aussie is begining a real bull run, or just another P&D (pump & dump) exercise taking shape? A bit early in summer for a trend wouldn't you think?

Gen dk 01:09 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc jk 01:05 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
1.30 gmt Dolphin...

Eilat Dolphin 01:04 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Woops! Looks like I am a bit too early...

Eilat Dolphin 01:03 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi all! Anyone has the Aussies jobs number ?

nyc jk 01:01 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
a good employment number and you will be saying the same thing about .7340/50 Sydney

Sydney 00:58 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L don't worry mate .7240/50 is a formidable resistance, it'll take more then one try to crack it.

syd EM 00:54 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Vulnerable To Reversal - CBA

Brisbane L 00:44 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja thanks very much, just a bit wary they are pushing it for a better level to flog it as there being one main buyer.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......! Not yet confirmed.

EUR-possible sell

CHF-possible buy

GBP-possible sell

JPY-possible buy

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:36 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 00:33 GMT July 8, 2004

The big buyer is a dutch bank, apparently for a us hedge fund

Brisbane L 00:33 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Aud bid early Asia same buyer prominent says IFR.. Does anyone know who the buyer is on the Aud thanks

CAIRO AG 00:13 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
nj// dm: Well yes, i was chatting with him today... I think he will be here at any second.

GL & GT

KL KL 00:10 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Cover GBPUSD short BE...waiting to short at higher levels..in/out with 2 pips gain..he he. Looking to short more EUR USD at higher levels if seen

nj dm 00:06 GMT July 8, 2004 Reply   
Has anybody seen dallas gep lately or is he off doing something else please?

 




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