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Forex Forum Archive for 07/16/2004

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NYC mab 23:55 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
If you want to survive in this business (Ive been trading for 35 yrs). You MUST do two things.
1) reduce your leverage to no more than 20% of your equity.
2) establish a reasonable stop-loss level on evey trade BEFORE you get in and STICK to it. If you lose you lose. There will always be another trade. Don't blow all your equity on one trade.

As for your position, nobody can tell you with a high degree of confidence what to do. If they say they can, don't believe them. It is not true. If you want to try to trade out of this mess, reduce your exposure and trade with the two simple rules above. Plan to make back what you lost with a number of small low leverage trades.

ny amc 23:35 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Canada.newbie..........in my opinion I say sit tight I think you will get enough of a retracement on your position to get back close enough to where you own it.........but remember that is my opinion and I dont own your position

Canada mb 23:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
I am a new trader. I opened a retail account with ACM in Geneva. I was doing great until today. I ended up buying 8 lots in total of USD/CDN(long story) and came so close to exceeding my margin I almost had to offload 1 lot at a time to not run afoul of ACM's 1% margin rule. Anyway, I really need advice on how to get out of this mess . My entry point on the trade is 1.3238(don't laugh), and I am down USD8000 of the $22000 I had on acct.

Forest Park SKR 23:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone thinking the euro will break the 1.2550 mark next week.....Good day for the euro....sorry to say but I think the dollar is not gonna get strong anytime soon

Melbourne Qindex 22:42 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:03 GMT July 11, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.8709 and the critical level is located at 1.8709. Initially the market is going to consolidate between 1.8552 - 1.8709. The lower barrier is expected at 1.8317 // 1.8395. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.8865 // 1.8944. The market rhythm is represented by 157 pips (k=0.0156932) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.7988 - 1.8598. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of taking a short position if the market is trading below 1.8709).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.8042 ... 1.8238* - 1.8317 // 1.8395* - 1.8474 - 1.8552* - 1.8631 - 1.8709* - 1.8787 - 1.8865* // 1.8944 - 1.9022* ...


Hong Kong Qindex 00:23 GMT July 11, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 108.39 and the key quantized level is positioning at 108.91. Initially the market is going to vibrate around the critical level at 108.39 with an expected magnitude of 107.88 - 108.91. A projected supporting point is located at 105.82. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 105.30 // 105.82. The upper barrier is expected at 109.42 // 119.94. The market rhythm is represented by 103 pips (k=1.0317) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 106.33 - 109.42 (Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 109.42).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 105.30* // 105.82 - 106.33* - 106.85 - 107.36* - 107.88 - 108.39* - (108.91) - 109.42* // 109.94 - 110.45* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 15:44 GMT July 10, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7209. The critical level is positioning at 0.7239 - 0.7300. Initially the market is going to trade between 0.7209 - 0.7300. Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 0.7117. The lower barrier is expected at 0.6872 // 0.6933. The upper barrier is located at 0.7300 // 0.7362. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips (k=0.0061182) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.6933 - 0.7362. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7300).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 0.6872 // 0.6933 - 0.6995 - 0.7056 - 0.7117 - 0.7178 - 0.7239 - 0.7300 // 0.7362 - 0.7423 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 15:02 GMT July 10, 2004
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.3139 which is also the critical point. The pattern of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.3034 - 1.3348. The lower barrier is located at 1.2981 // 13034. The upper barrier is expected at 1.3401 // 1.3453. The market rhythm is represented by 105 pips (k=0.010486) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2929 - 1.3348. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of taking a long position around 1.3139).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2929* - 1.2981 // 1.3034* - 1.3087 - (1.3139) - 1.3191 - 1.3243* - 1.3296 - 1.3348* - 1.3401 // 1.3453* ...


Hong Kong Qindex 11:28 GMT July 10, 2004
USD/CHF Weekly Cycle Charts

USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2250 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2190. Initially the market is going to consolidate between 1.2190 - 1.2250. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.2129. The lower barrier is located at 1.1947 // 12008. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2371 // 1.2432. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 61 pips (k=0.006062) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2008 - 1.2371. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2129).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.1947 // 1.2008 - 1.2068 - 1.2129 - (1.2190) - 1.2250 - 1.2311 - 1.2371 // 1.2432 ...


Hong Kong Qindex 09:23 GMT July 10, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2427. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2366. Initially the market is going to consolidate around 1.2366 - 1.2427. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2551. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 1.2181 // 1.2242. The upper barrier is located at 1.2612 // 1.2674. The market rhythm is represented by 62 pips (k=0.0061624) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2242 - 1.2612. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.2427 ).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2119 - 1.2181 // 1.2242 - 1.2304 - 1.2366 - (1.2427) - 1.2489 - 1.2551 - 1.2612 // 1.2674 ...


GVI john 21:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez

We tend to watch the Fed Funds (1.25%) rate more than prime because the overnight rate for money is the only thing the Fed can really control. Long–term rates, such as the yields on 10-yr (4.36%) and 30-yr bonds (5.11%) are set entirely by the marketplace. There is a theory that to control inflation (CPI-core rate 1.9%), that there should be a positive real “cost” of money of 1.0-1.5%. The “real” cost of money is defined as the Fed Funds rate plus 1.0 or 1.5%. Thus a “neutral” Fed Funds rate now would be 2.9% to 3.4%. The basic theory is that a negative “real” cost of money tends to drive asset prices higher and fuel bubbles, such as the ones currently being experienced in the U.S., U.K. and Australia. The RBA and BOE have already acted to let some of the air out of their asset bubbles and the Fed has just started to do the same thing. The Fed drove the Fed Funds rate down to 1.0% because it was worried about the risk of deflation and that risk has passed. The Greenspan move to a one percent Fed Funds rate was unprecedented. It is unlikely to happen again. It was an emergency move to prop up the economy and now that crisis is over. The Fed now would like to carefully return to a neutral cost of money, but does not want to cut the recovery short.

So the question now is how fast can it raise the Fed Funds rate back to a neutral 3.50% or so. Is it months or years? At the start of this year, many were expecting no rate hikes before 2005. Then about a month ago the markets were projecting five Fed Funds rate hikes of 25bp this year (to 2.25%), now as the economy has cooled, many are scaling back on their expectations, which is why we asked the question this week.

Before the data this week our respondents had scaled back on their expectations for yearend Fed Funds to 1.75% or 2.00%. They moved ahead of the interest rate markets, and when the interest rate markets caught up with them today the dollar fell, as you would expect.

This is my simple-minded answer to your question. There are many others here such as Livingston who are much smarter than I am and might have more to say on the issue.

RIGA RIA 20:33 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nice weekend all///

Gen dk 20:16 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RIGA RIA 19:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
usdzar finally break 6.00 but main stops now only below 5.80-- break cud provoke drop to 5.50 but now some correction possible-- expect bounce off 5.90/85 to 6.10/15..GL

prague viktor 19:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez:Amigo to the year end if the oil [email protected] so there will be a nice inflation level all over the world and if the fed move to the 2%it will be okay imo.

ICT ML 19:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
valdez.....that was the overwhelming opinion of the professional traders survey...2.00 by years end.

It is based on there being 4 meetings left, and since a .25 hike at each would result in 2.25 at years end.....we left room for a meeting with no hike in there to hedge ourselves a bit :-)

I see 1.75-2.00 myself.......fixed income invested old folks are getting slaughtered...just talk to my Grandpa about that!

There is no reason to keep rates low..*unless* things aren't as rosey as they are being portrayed out there...IMHO

RIGA RIA 19:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Prague , viktor, thx for helpful info..GL

prague viktor 19:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
RIGA RIA: thx the same to u mate it was from u a nice call also watch the usd /czk its new freah low 25,04 if we will take it so to the 24,8 and after it free fall.G/T

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GVI John//
Please send me an email or better still please explain on this forum or the help forum why you feel the Fed will push up prime to 2.0%. The Fed's sales point on pushing up interest was to stave off inflation. If inflation is so small, and apparently it is per the data (0.10% core), then why would the Fed push interest UP? If anything it seems that would cause deflation to further push prime up still, in a practically inflationless economy, and that's not healthy either. I really do want to know -your- take on economic theory here as all of us value your opinion greatly. Remember also USA wants cheap $$...and 2% prime would increase USD worth...the opposite of what they want.

prague viktor 19:34 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 18:58 GMT July 16, 2004:Great work .

RIGA RIA 19:33 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
very good pregue , viktor....I expect bounce off 31.15 to 31.40/50 before fresh selloff..GL

prague viktor 19:32 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
RIGA RIA:yes it was my limit so now Im flat with the czk, but cnb like such kind of fast move ,what is ur view point for the next week,do u think it will go back to the 31,45 or it will go to the 30,8level .and there is a big buyer on the 30,8level that is the talk here.G/L

Gen dk 19:30 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brooklyn mhicpa 19:19 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 15:48 GMT July 16, 2004
thank you for usd/cad comment

RIGA RIA 19:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
EURCZK finally reach my tgt 31.25 n drop lower to 31.17 , GBPZAR also reach tgt 11.15//GL

ICT ML 19:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
everyone have a good weekend.
Calculated target on gbp-usd from 1.7450 still stands at 1.9050 area min.(flag pole tgt). Weeklies are at a spot where they could possibly retrace some, but price action building up to this has me doubting that will happen. Calculated target from 1.5600 is still 2.105 (flag pole tgt).......there is enormous room to run in the upside in my tech studies;-).

The first buy signal generated on 5/21/04 and the breakout buy signal on 7/2/04.....heres to a LONG and profitable GBP trend this fall!

$CAD has almost reached our 1.3000 target, it bounced at 1.3200 which we expected it at 1.3000....might still see a bounce at 1.3000 but I think it will be minor.....still looking for 1.2600 and lower relatively soon.

enjoy

GVI john 19:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
NA DDD 18:54 GMT July 16, 2004
We do not pernit the posting of email addresses. Thanks

GVI john 18:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Survey call on yearend Fed Funds is looking pretty good right now (2.0%). CLICK HERE

Dublin CK 18:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Happy week end. Have fun, excellent posts this weeks. Hats off to those that analysed GBP/YEN couple weeks back and said it would hit 204. Think it was Oilman & others. Good work, keep it coming.

Tor Pumpkin 18:29 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
ebs high 1.2461.
sorry late reply.

Van jv 18:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
1.2458

Toronto Deeb 17:54 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
anyone have the high for EUR for today please

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 17:36 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
maby i should not type this , however i would like to say that many in here are vary good traders, but to address a issue that i kinda took to the heart:
i do not care your color, your race, your creed, or your beliefs, we are here to trade that is it, go to your own religions or what ever you want to do, i am white, however i was raised in a black school, = lol white/black, or christian or jew, or u hate them because they hate u, i just do not beleive this way, it is as much a violation against me to call me white as it is to call a black man black, and this applies to religion as well, offinded i was growing up, and cannot tell all but have had a few (blacks) that are my best friends, and a few jews, these things we must sort out amongst ourselves, i have been screwed by many treated well by many in business now almost 30 yrs, learned much, people are not bad because of the color of their skin, beleifs, that is bs, i am 1/2 keller tribe of the cherokee nation, and dont look like it,y secetary is same, and she looks like a cherokee, judgment i dont know, but i have good will for all = good luck and good trading, would not have posted this eirlier but now we have time off
simply matters not we are all human!!!!!!! and should get along

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:15 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks you for your kind words amc I hope you did good this week although these summer months are tough on any trader IMO. You have a good weekend.

ny amc 17:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami...omil.......very nice call this week on eur/usd

ny amc 17:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne...farmacia.....may i ask jay for your email

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd holding steady now with support found around 1.2420-30, 1.2390-2400, 1.2380-60 and 1.2340-50 for now. I am calling a day for now and hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

HK Kevin 16:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 15:48 GMT, many thanks for your views on USD/CAD. Today's drop around 150 pips really made me surprise, particularly below 1.3140. Fundamentally, I am bullish on this pair since the establishment of the new government which I think will not adopt a tightened monetary policy.

Nottingham 15:48 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...not sure if it will be able to move significantly below 3070 today, but market will want to close under last weeks low...outside chance may provide opportunity to pick up at 3030 but better to grab it if it presents itself than target it since it would be akin to closing stable door after horse has bolted...gl gt

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 15:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Have a nice weekend all..



nk

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 15:15 GMT July 16, my stop for short USD/JPY at 110.31 were threatened. Trade with fear over the past 2 days while Shanghai bc mentioning buyiing USD/JPY anything under 110 is like money in the bank. But I can now have an easy and pleasant weekend. Any views on USD/CAD

melbourne farmacia 15:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 14:53 GMT July 16, 2004
Out of intraday near posted level.... closed few more carry positions..... no plan to sell at this time of the day...... good run today ONLY because of US figures.. GT

hk revdax 15:15 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:40 GMT//i closed out mine at 108.60 but the Macau indicator does not favor going long yet.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Morning's news: "According to the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.3 percent in June — half the previous month’s rise — and “core” prices, excluding energy and food, rose just 0.1 percent. That gave investors, concerned about whether the economy would grow too fast and inflation would take hold, much needed relief. An upbeat outlook from IBM also boosted investor sentiment, especially in the battered technology sector". This tells me the Fed ain't a gonna increase interest rates much more if at all. So investors in paper will yawn at USD paper and continue with GBP stuff. Thus low demand will allow U$D to further devaluate.

QC WC 14:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Yes, he is the best with GBP, have seen no other.

KL KL 14:53 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia , when r u planning to take profit and reverse on gbpusd....good one on your entry and top!!

Goes (NL) B747 14:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Chaveax Abdula Silverstein,

relax and consider to fill first some promises you made!
clean and waiting for you...!!!


gt

HK Kevin 14:40 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax, thank you for your wonderful Macau indicator. Just cover my short USD/JPY from 109.40 and 109.90 at 108.67. Also turn only 1 contact long at 108.65l Think 20-day MA 108.60 could provide support for today.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
My real name is Chaveax Abdula Silverstein. A little consideration is all I ask. See my post: captured Bin Laden Cave memos in Political forum where obviously our dear Sydney belongs this AM. And I've hidden his coffee perker. LMFAO. GL GT.

Dublin Flip 14:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
I think you'll find GVM is a kiwi actually guys.
Enough said though I think.

HK [email protected] 14:29 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GVM

Maybe the Aussie boon-boom did not reach all the masses, time to attack all minorities .

Now we have shet from eall to wall.

chester wb 14:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GVM-hopefully Jay will remove you and your offensive post

Bah Bahrain1 14:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
stop done on my short cable with -36 pips.
Waiting for GBp hrly chart to show sell signle and will hit hard.
good luck to u all.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:19 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Whoa GVM! No more coffee for you today!

Bah Bahrain1 14:18 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
.

Gothenburg XON 14:15 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped out on cable @ 8720, leaving me a 150 pip profit! Still in EUR/USD....

hk revdax 14:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Fairfield R 14:08 //No rules! A losing position to you represents a more advantagious level to someone else. It all depends on your conviction...imo

prague viktor 14:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: Amigo yes its a chance for every one to make money,amigo the oil now is the name of the game ,and try to use oil man systemH-R(hit and run).for me Im closing all my position which I have it from the last NFP.

QC WC 14:10 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Yes, most FX players do that, thats why i told you no stop yet.

San Diego bobl 14:10 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp and aud over $ is really giving us a gift...waiting patiently to get a good move and hanging with it makes for good trading. Personally, I am trailing 20 pt stops around now...euro/usd; gbp/usd; aud/usd.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney// Exactly.

Correction: when I posted "when the USD peaks" to have said :when the chart for eur/ peaks". Precision can never be compromised.

It is pretty much a guaranteed thing for position traders to long XXX/USD the next 6 months; buy on valleys, sell on big peaks, don't worry about the small ups and downs..go for 1 to 3 week positions, sit on hands, don't worry - be happy. I've made a lot of money doing position currency trading over 8 years and can't remember when I took a significant loss. Day trading...ouch.

hk revdax 14:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 14:05//Once the mkt reacts, i will begin to alter the stops or narrow it....or get out totally. It is like playing kung fu. My 'whimp' dictates.

Fairfield R 14:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
First rule to making money trading, never, never add to a losing position

QC WC 14:05 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Same same style, but 200 pips is almost no stop as may add at 108.40 if seen but will cut if below 107.75

Sydney gvm 14:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
reality will always prevail - sell Bush - sell dollars - eat censored turkeys

hk revdax 14:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:35 //I do use stop every time. Sometimes the stop is 20 pips away while other times 200 pips. There aren't no rules for me. It all depends on my whimp.

Gen dk 14:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Prague Victor// Yes. 3 yr chart is my key. After all those cheap USD's accumulate in the pockets of exporters of the USA, Panama, Ecuador (and a bit of Argentina), around late 2005 the USD will again evaluate slowly over a period of 3-3.5 yrs to parity with EUR, giving EZ a chance then to export and the USD countries to purchase those exports. China or anyone else pegged to the USD will be forced to float when the USD peaks in 2005, shaking lose the last shakles. It's just a big cycle giving all a chance at the gold, keeps the world going 'round. Gotta scram...enjoy the view.

Calabash TarHeel 13:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Closed nzd/$ long from .6484> >.6590
Thru for the week.
Good Luck, Good Trades to all.

Sydney gvm 13:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Long and wrong - how do you feel dollar chicks - I am lovin this - my stop is so farrrrrrr away

melbourne farmacia 13:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:17 GMT July 16, 2004
I never suggested selling Gbp..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:55 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW 1.2450 option barrier rolls off at 1400 gmt today for eur/usd pair.

Sydney gvm 13:55 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
woah !! out for a few beers in Weliington before the clash tomorrow night and censored I feel good - sell dollars - wear DIAMONDS

prague viktor 13:53 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdezAmigo 64 pips and u will see ur 1,25

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Michigan Sentiment comes in at 96 from June reading at 95.6 but expectations were a bit higher than that at 97.

GENEVA FHR 13:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
UOM 96.00

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:48 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Yea, it's a spike Livingston...but a pebble in the road on the way to 1.30 by Dec. LOOOOOOOng city. Micr$soft and the re$t of the U.$.A. juicy export business will lick their chops. # yr chart. Those waiting for 1.21, bring your lunch.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:46 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
The 1.2440 resistance is still intact for eur/usd and with mid term indicators in O/B territory the upside move for the bulls may be limited if they can break this resistance IMHO. GL GT

San Diego bobl 13:45 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
mich sentiment due out...protect profits just in case

Gothenburg XON 13:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 13:25 GMT July 16, 2004,

Thanx...!

Gothenburg XON 13:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
My next projected level for EUR/USD is 1,2486...

lnd 13:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
respect the price action. tried a small short on cable before range break. wont do that again. the $-bears have regained control and there is no doubting this. well time to think about buying on any pullbacks.

QC WC 13:35 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Frankly no stop as will buy some more if lower, same tactic as yours, right?

Livingston nh 13:33 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - thanx but this smells like a spike -- G'span has to explain next week to congress what "transitory" means and when do these hikes become "sticky" - the Mr. Hyde part of G'span next week

hk revdax 13:30 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:26 //Where is the stop?

Nottingham 13:30 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL, speaking of options some here have just taken off topside of some intraday structures...downside is in for free now but nobody expecting much rather it would be a bonus/confidence to come...gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry my previous comment was for eur/usd pair.

San Diego bobl 13:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd...aud did take some stops and ran on daily b/o...again, the nibble to be in if they ran em was worth the risk and now is paying well

melbourne farmacia 13:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Jay - breaking Iraq story...

Allawi shot inmates in cold blood, say witnesses


QC WC 13:26 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Order done, am long some now.

Eilat Dolphin 13:26 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Are some news out right now ? My computer is donkying some.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 13:26 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
any comments on gbp usd, being a little toppy here ? tia

Ldn Viewer 13:25 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Gothenburg XON 13:20 - Boost away mate its a great trade well done ...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Exotic barriers remain tipped at 1.2450--inclusive of some triggers expiring
today (Friday), and Monday. Further barriers reside at 1.2475, 1.2485,
1.2490, 1.2500, 1.2525, 1.2550, and 1.2600. From IFR

ny amc 13:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Well lets just say that good old cable gave me a royal whipping today.........made me move stops and all that good stuff............oh well

Gothenburg XON 13:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Well my long cable @ 8570 turned out fine! 100 pips while getting out of the house for 2hours...(dont wanna brag, just happy to get a good trade for once)

QC WC 13:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Faramcia, you mean you will short GBP at 1.8715/20 on Mon?

San Diego bobl 13:16 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd...speaking for itself

Nottingham 13:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 13:09 GMT

fwiw...with refernece to closing levels, inflation data doesn't always have an impact but any decent moves that occur off the cpi tend to ripple on for a week or two...gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:08 GMT July 16, 2004
I agree that is where I thought it would test first but with the not so hot data coming out of the US the fear of a touch on the breaks by us FED concerning the interest rate hikes are back in the picture and that is $ negative IMHO.

melbourne farmacia 13:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 12:57 GMT July 16, 2004
System level 1.8689 - 1.8759 ....... big T/L @ 1.8715 ish

Caribbean! Rafe... 13:11 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out my GBP short for a loss since last night, but in profit for all the others.. JPY did well. =)

Had tight stops on all the pairs so was stopped out prematurely on a pullback but with a profit of course.

San Diego bobl 13:11 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat...on phone...will comment in a minute

QC WC 13:10 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Feeling may pick some near 108.80

boulder dat 13:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
disregard... Jay posted it.

Livingston nh 13:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Watch for the Opposite Spin to start -- the knee-jerk reaction has been about "core" CPI again -- some comments have already surfaced that the Fed may not move in August -- BUT as these CPI numbers get looked at, the Opposite Spin may start -- G'span testimony to Congress will indicate "some" concern (Don't forget nothing is priced off CORE CPI - TIPS, Social Security and wage adjustments are based on CPI)

San Diego bobl 13:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd...daily setting up to b/o also...looks better lower, but may be worth a nibble in case in cobbles up stops and goes

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
With the TIC data down that should add more wood to this slow burning fire for the bulls for the eur/usd pair IMO.

Nottingham 13:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
re TIC, a little bit below what some were expecting...euro climbing wall of worry it seems...I am very impressed with its performance this afternoon as I was expecting a look at downside stops below 2300...first significant zone of supply appears at 2470/2510...gl gt

boulder dat 13:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
San Diego BOBL...
the average daily high/low spread on the pound is about 145 pips. We're at about 200 right now. I'd say we may have gone about as far as we can expect.

Does anyone know how to find the Treasury Capital Flow data tath was relased 10 minutes ago?

hk revdax 13:06 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 13:01//It is always healthy to take profit but i doubt if i would bottom fish here...

San Diego bobl 13:05 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd...as per comments, we are picking up stops based on daily breakout here; just nailed this one. I took a little more off in this area 1.8680. Unless we find strong contrary evidence before close, this looks like one we can carry for a bigger trade. I am down to half size, but will add if we come into daily breakout area.

Gen dk 13:05 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View GVI 13:04 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay 13:01 GMT July 16, 2004
TIC data: Foreign purchases of US securities $56.4 bln in May, down from $76.0 bln in April.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bullish trend continues for the eur/usd pair with 1.2390-2400 and 1.2430-40 as resistance and gateway to 1.2475-85 IMHO. GL GT

QC WC 13:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Below 109 already, watching to take profit first.

Ldn Viewer 13:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:58 - Add on dips , officals will soon be back from KTV ... GL

Gen dk 12:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin Flip 12:58 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks vm viewer. I'm thinking the dollar may back off a tad into the weekend but less so in $jpy I suppose. Thing is Nikkei and Yen have traded well together. If stock market picks itself off the floor this after noon $jpy may come back near last few weeks closes @ 108.30/80
cheers mate and be lucky

lnd 12:57 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
would wait for 109.25 before going long. not for me.

KL KL 12:57 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Maybe 1.8660 a formidable la-resistence....looking to scalp there on first attempt for a few pips....Your majesty politically is a bit not supporting the pound.imho. Farmacia where is your projected top for this drive up??tia

LAX-LGB SNP 12:56 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 12:51 GMT July 16, 2004
not just yet - maybe next week, watchin 7 others carefully though

lnd 12:56 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
still flat. waiting for cable to break. if back below 1.8590 will short but nothing in the market makes me want to risk my capital. enjoy...

QC WC 12:54 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Maybe 110 or better?

Melbourne Qindex 12:54 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LAX-LGB SNP 12:54 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Viees - tell me about it ;-)

p.s. EURJPY failing below falling weekly TL gonna go for 1.3450

hk revdax 12:51 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 12:50 //Long $/JY???

Ldn Viewer 12:51 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 12:40 - Buy USDJPY and see you again at 110.00 ..

hk revdax 12:51 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 12:45 //The upside of $/JY is ???

LAX-LGB SNP 12:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold is painting a failed bull flag on the dailies - fairly reminscent of EURUSD/AUDUSD - not buying @ these prices
think i'll load up on USDJPY soon

San Diego bobl 12:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd on fire

Tallinn viies 12:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
sold euros at 85.
sq now.
oh god. two days fear and beer money only.
tired of it

San Diego bobl 12:48 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd just gave quick 30 pips on add
...talk partial there; extended

QC WC 12:45 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
My target for Usd/Yen still 109 or just below 109 to reverse again.

San Diego bobl 12:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd...cable best trade of day so far; i added here on pullback for possible daily chart breakout and go; not much else to hang your hat on now imho

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 12:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
will only stick to trading and vodka!!!!

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 12:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Remind Me never to get coffee in morning

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:40 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like another bloody ranging Friday await us to many land mines (option barriers) for the bulls and no real incentives for the bears time for tequila shots and take it easy IMHO. GL GT

Dublin Flip 12:40 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Lighten up Viewer. At least he's got the ticker to risk giving a view.
Any calls from yourself you'd like to share ???

San Diego bobl 12:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
i was long euro and gbp going into report as posted; i took a combined 80 pips on the pairs for half with b/e stops in now for second.

usd/jpy ended up a sell and only gave 15 total on whole shot...took it off; not enough volatility for trade

KL KL 12:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Fast hands short 1.8630 take 20 pips cover at 1.861....looking again to short later with next figures to be released....fast hands needed today...just take profit

Gen dk 12:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
June CPI +0.3% ex food & energy +0.1%, core below forecast
From GVI Forum

USA Biscuit Boy 12:35 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
US June CPI 0.3% (exp 0.2%, prev 0.6%)
US June Core CPI 0.1% (exp 0.2%, prev 0.2%)

San Diego bobl 12:34 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
taking 20 first half usd/jpy

San Diego bobl 12:33 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
euro/usd only gave 20 pips/half...plus earlier hold for more but didn't post it

Ldn Viewer 12:33 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:12 GMT July 16, 2004
GBPCHF 2.2989 2.2944 2.2899
this baby will crash

Question is when ? GBP a big gainer today , you may be coming aa good contra for GV ...

San Diego bobl 12:32 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd...took 60 pips half

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Well hopefully the data will push eur/usd pair out of this bloody range we have been since the beginning of the month (2300-2440). Or will this be another choppy ranging Friday that the summer usually brings we will see soon. Remember to save your bullets for the real hunt LOL. GL GT

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 12:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
just pulled trigger on gbp usd @ 1.86 sitting on hands for now, do u see more upside from here i picked +30 out of it tks

QC WC 12:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thanks again. Any data avail on Mon that can drive or move the market?

lnd 12:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747. you are asking the wrong person on MA. Think there are better experts on the forum. gl & gt to yourself.

Goes (NL) B747 12:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
lnd 12:11 GMT July 16, 2004

thank you, it makes picture even more complicated :)
how you translated the MA into positions?

gt

San Diego bobl 12:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
sorry...note: will put in stop/reverse on euro and gbp (pairs i hold in the money now)

lnd 12:11 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 . 110.33 (50MA) and 109.39 (100MA)

San Diego bobl 12:11 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Several pairs are sitting very near their central pivot of the day and will probably hold in that area going into the CPI number at the half hour. I will spread at least 3 pairs +/- 12 or so pips going into the number. Prime candidates for me now...
euro/usd (already long; will tighten stop going into number)
gbp/usd (already long; will tighten stop going into number)
usd/jpy
aud/usd

Goes (NL) B747 12:08 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
I need the MA50 per USD/JPY, may someone help?


tia & gt

Gen dk 11:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/GBPCHF15minutes.htm
I think will convince anyone

melbourne farmacia 11:30 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 05:19 GMT July 16, 2004
Sorry mate.. i calculated wrong time period..should be Monday not today.... cheers

GER ad 11:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/GBP at 0.6651 S/L under 0.6520 T/P 0.6685+

Belgrad KZ 11:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 11:20 GMT July 16, 2004
Thank u for your comment, appreciate that! GL to u!

Nottingham 11:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad kz 11:13 GMT

fwiw for today, I think dollar sits in front of 4 elevators...3 go up, 1 goes down>>>without going into details, more scenarios end with a higher dollar than those ending with a lower dollar...CPI (and TIC) is going to have an effect but any impact they have is likely to be magnified on upside but more muted on the downside for dollar...gl gt

Belgrad kz 11:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 11:07 GMT July 16, 2004
Thanks man! I think US$/CAD is a buy, but will wait the US data.
Bah u are wellcome!
GL all!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBPCHF 2.2989 2.2944 2.2899
this baby will crash

Nottingham 11:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
canadian june cpi +0.1/+0.1...a sniff below expectations

Bah Bahrain1 11:06 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ/// Thank you frnd. GL.

Belgrad kz 11:04 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone pls with the CANADA data? TIA

Belgrad kz 11:03 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 11:01 GMT July 16, 2004
It`s NY!

Bah Bahrain1 11:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain with in 10 pips/// Hi mate, The timing on your levels sheet is GMT or Bahrain time.? GL

Kuala Belait Saham 10:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Test again.

KUALA BELAIT Saham 10:51 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Test

Nottingham 10:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
cad...June cpi due at top of hour...headline and core both seen at 0.2%...market priced for success somewhat and if disappoints then could quickly move over 10 day sma but 3300 should cap the pair ahead of the US cpi...gl gt

Surabaya Medallion 10:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
QC WC

Yes, these high oil price is hurting the Yen cause Japan got payment in term of $ from their two biggest client (e.g: China and U.S). The fact that Yen has zero interest doesn't help the matter too. Right now, Yen is obviously undervalue compare to Euro. But I'm betting that after good news regarding Oil Production from Russia and OPEC, those hedge funds will take away their profits from future oils and golds.

P.S: I'm sure Mr. Greenspan is not going to let Oil price rises further. Afterall, he has succeded to keep commodity prices in check thanks also in part to China.

U.K. J.B. 10:29 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 18:17 GMT July 15, 2004
U.K. J.B. 13:39 GMT July 15, 2004
Well back to range trading again i presume until CPI. Tom not a gr8 deal on my radar screen so to keep the mind active i have spotted a good r/r trade.

Sold eur/cad at 1.6395 s/l 1.6450 tar. 1.62 will adjust t/p levels in due course

Bring s/l down to cost 25 % locked in
Lock in a further 50 % run bal.

Goes (NL) B747 10:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aNqytRp06Zgg&refer=us


gt

melbourne DC 10:21 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Global View .. Thanks.

Crissier Sergio 10:18 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Houston, TX FXopt

Thanks your help. Finally found everything I neede at

http://www.censored.com/convert/fxhistory

Ciao

melbourne DC 10:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
abb .. thanks .. the forex forum is refreshing fine but not the GVI .. thanks n GT.

Global-View 10:16 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
DC. Everything is fine on our end. Try clearing your internet history, if using XP, go to control panel/performance/clear disk space and also try a cold reboot of your computer to clear anything stuck in your cache.

JDH abb 10:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
DC i think u have to delet cokies and tmprry files and restart ur pc

melbourne DC 10:06 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi .. is anyone having problem with GVI auto -refresh? TIA

lnd 10:04 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 09:51 GMT. dont like $/yen. it was a buy closer to 108.00 but now think euro/yen might be better way to play. stop at 135.25/30. but will wait after cpi. am flat now.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Just longed CAD using these
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/USDCAD15minutes.htm

Houston, TX Fxopt 09:53 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Crissier Sergio

Try www.censored.com .... click on FX History on left hand side.

Hope this helps.

Gothenburg XON 09:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable , gone long instead...

hk revdax 09:51 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
lnd 09:41 //i was not referring to cable.

Bah Bahrain1 09:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain with in 10 pips/// are u around mate?

Bah Bahrain1 09:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds gd day to u all,

Short Cable here @ 1.8560 s/l at 95 GL.

hk 09:48 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 09:38 GMT July 16, 2004
sounds good, I bet you all star traders like the idea of reincarnation after margin calls.

lnd 09:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 09:32 GMT. For today I am not going to be a smart censored. I will stay out before numbers and enter once I get a good feel for price action. Previously I tried to pick tops and bottoms before numbers and it only creates pain for my p&l. It's too 50:50 right now and with ranges narrowing it feels like las vagas.

anyway if anyone tech minded has time pull up a chart of cable and you will see lower highs but not lower lows. interesting so shorts might be attractive but the post data spike might take you out of the position so you need a good stop.

Gen dk 09:40 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk revdax 09:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
lnd 09:31 GMT//People don';t die. They just get reincarnated. The Hollywood stars like the idea of reincarnation. That is why Dali Lama is so popular amongst them.

hk revdax 09:32 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
lnd 08:28 GMT//Only God knows where the top is of $/JY for today. So you could go in with ONE contract and get a feeling. One could 'home in' like a guided missile more easily this way.

Crissier Sergio 09:32 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Where could I get past exchange rates (end 80's beg 90's)?
Any site providing such info?

Thanks

lnd 09:31 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
One for the diary...Wednesday, September 4, 2069. this is when i will die. I have 2,055,436,299 seconds to live!!!

from http://www.deathclock.com/

Reading Diamond Dog 09:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys ...short at 1,8541

Goes (NL) B747 09:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Gothenburg XON 09:23 GMT July 16, 2004

true, 1.8480 looks like a good point to long cable.


gt

Gothenburg XON 09:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Daimond dog,

If its any use to you I shorted @ 8548...
I think it looks like we will see 8479 today

KL KL 09:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Short gbpusd 1.8545 sl 15 pips above dangerous ..lets see what happens

Reading Diamond Dog 09:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Is it a good moment to short cable or is too early?
Thanks for any comments...

SA Will 08:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks

Belgrade Knez 08:56 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Sa Will 08:53 GMT July 16, 2004

NY=GMT-4h

Sa Will 08:53 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, not a fx question, what is the time difference between NY and GMT? Tia

Sydney gf 08:53 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
L.A. rwj 05:43 GMT July 16, 2004 try anything below 110-105-100.
shanghai bc 09:38 GMT June 21, 2004
Barring further interventions,Usd/Jpy may easily reach 105-100 region..

Gen dk 08:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Genoa nic 08:42 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Virgil 8.28, "modica voluptas laxat animos et temperat" ;)

Rivonia PipPirate 08:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 08:07 Time flies like the wind, fruit flies like bananas.

lnd 08:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 08:07 GMT July 16. Indeed.

I was thinking of going to http://www.deathclock.com/ and have a countdown so that I dont forget that time is finite and no matter how much capital I accumulate it cant buy me this very 'precious' stuff. Anyway its quiet and a long wait for those cpi numbers which everyone has a consensus view upon but will wait for market reaction before putting on trade. gl and gt to yourself.

LAX-LGB SNP 08:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
yep man
watching these USD chickens so they come home to roost within 12 hrs hopefully
weekend sailing plans been shelved coz the big boss wants to relax instead ! ;-)

Singapore Sfx 08:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks SNP . Isnt it late at night ? in LA >???

LAX-LGB SNP 08:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
SFX - timeo danao et dona ferentes !
freeware = spyware/malware sometimes

hk revdax 08:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
lnd 07:57 GMT//How time flies?

Singapore Sfx 08:06 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Tks all - - Good luck.

ny rick 08:03 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
http://www.page-1.com/time/clocks.asp

Goes (NL) B747 08:03 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 08:00 GMT July 16, 2004

when you need to know the time around the world, use the following link:

http://teletekst.nos.nl/tekst/777-01.html


gt

Gaza Ibiza 08:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
16.01 BEIJING TIME!

Singapore Sfx 08:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Cud someone tell me what time it is in Beijing now ?

lnd 07:57 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 06:00 GMT July 16:
"Short some now and some tomorrow"...good luck on finding a market maker on Saturday. gl & gt.

Moskow 07:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
intraday forex historical data is here

LAX-LGB SNP 07:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bank of America, Top Forecaster, Says Dollar to Rise

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., which ousted Merrill Lynch & Co. as the most accurate forecaster of foreign exchange rates last quarter, predicts the U.S. dollar will post its first annual gain against the euro and yen in three years.

``We see a modest appreciation of the dollar to year-end because of the comparative strength of the U.S. economy,'' said David Goldman, head of global markets research in New York at Banc of America Securities LLC, the company's investment banking unit. ``Europe is dead in the water. Japanese growth will slow.''

Goldman, 52, and the firm's currency strategy team predict the dollar will strengthen to $1.21 per euro by the end of this quarter and appreciate to $1.16 by Dec. 31. It will advance to 112 per yen by year-end, according to the bank's forecast.

London e 07:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bought USD/CHF @ 1.2351 with stop at 1.2336.

Melbourne Qindex 07:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 07:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
Bies comment about deficit and exchange rate was short term relief to euro.
as long as yesterdays high at 1,2390/95 contains the move pressure to downside is still there.
Im still long. plan to sell near 1,2380. fwiw

MONACO OGA 06:54 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 16/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2360), 10 pips higher than yesterday opening. USD consolidated inside 1,2325-1,2385 with a mixed bag of US data yesterday (jobless claims as expected, good Phily Fed and NY Fed manufacturing index, while June industrial production was lower than expected). All in all, economic perspectives in the US are still looking good and this could trigger some rate hike anticipations for FED's August 10th FOMC meeting. Above 1,2430 seems to offer enough resistance so far, while minor support now stands around 1,2325-30 (next ones at 1,2300 then 1,2240). Our range trading view inside 1.1750-1,2450 is still valid. On the medium term, 1,2200 now appears as a major support.

Data out today:

EURozone, HICP M/M+Y/Y expected 0% and 2,4% 09.00 GMT
US CPI June expected 0,2% 12.30 GMT
US Michigan preliminary July expected 97 13.45 GMT
US NY Fed mfg July expected 28.5 12.30 GMT
US Ind production June expected 0 13.15 GMT
US capacity utilization June expected 77,7 13.15 GMT
US Phily Fed July expected 25.00 16.00 GMT

Gold at 403,80, with WTI August at 40,68

***JPY***
USD/JPY (109,75). The pair has been gaining some ground again yesterday and stopped a few pips ahead of our 110,25 target (high 110,05). Overnight the pair retraced 25 pips on the downside on the back of NIKKEY modest gains. As we mentioned the bullish JPY sentiment seems to be fading away. We are still favouring long positions and will buy any dips (109,00 108,50) for a 110,25 target despite the fact that exporters seem to be offering hard around 110 level. For the time being, we stick to our medium term strategy with the pair hovering inside 107-112.
EUR/JPY currently 135,60 tested 135,75 overnight. The cross is still looking bid, however we favour a retest of 134,00 support then some consolidating inside 133,50-135,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8505), very stable so far but looking heavy lately. The pair was unable to regain 1,8550 yesterday and tested 1,8480 minor support twice since yesterday. If later level is tested a third time, support is likely to give way and could trigger a fast move to 1,8250. Political situation seems to be deteriorating at a fast pace for PM BLAIR and Labour Party. For the time being we still believe in the 1,8250-1,8650 range strategy. We will try to sell any rally ahead of 1,8550 today.
EUR/GBP (0,6675). The cross looks to be stabilizing above 0,6660 (0.6655-80 range). We remain neutral for the time being as long as we stay inside 0,6630-0,6730.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

QC WC 06:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Medallion, do I get you right? Think its the higher oil prices that is weakening the Yen.

Surabaya Medallion 06:45 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Hmm, Better stay out from Long $/Yen until Oil is under $38 again.

Spr Noods 06:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
too many bees.........ouch

hk revdax 06:02 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps we could call upon Shanghai BC to start unloading its $/JY position from the BOC so that his good friends around here could benefit and buy some cheap wine for a Friday evening party.

hk revdax 06:00 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Today is a bit tricky. $/JY might have already topped out OR it would shoot up all the way to today's close before coming down tomorrow morning. I wish there were some sophisticated indicator that could shed us the light. unfortunately, the only way to deal with this is through money management. Short some now and some tomorrow.

Singapore Sfx 05:57 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax - if top already in , then reckon your overnite "close" call lvl of 109.29 is somewhat important..

Singapore Sfx 05:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
110.45-50 if 109.20 holds ..

QC WC 05:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, don't you feel upside already reached? Anyway it all depends on tonight's data.

hk revdax 05:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
I want to know where $/JY could hit *today* on the upside. TIA

Goes (NL) B747 05:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
when USD/JPY will hit parity...will prices will be according to the current prices in USD or JPY?

L.A. rwj 05:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
To shanghai bc:
It is wonderful we can read your comment from time to time. There are lots of wisdom there. You are talking about buy USDJPY below 110. Could you clarify what below 110 mean? That is anything lower than 110, such as 109 and so forth? There is a reverse double top with base around 109.5. Do you think USDJPY will get to 112?

Bgd PS 05:42 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 05:21 GMT July 16, 2004

$/jpy PARITY!


Sydney Alimin 05:42 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
maybe it was meant to be 1:100 :)

Belgrade Knez 05:40 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 05:21 GMT July 16, 2004
Bgd PS 04:44 GMT July 16, 2004
And hence the confusion. I was talking about $/yen hitting parity. cheers mate.

DOLLAR YEN HITTING PARITY! (1:1)
WELL MAYBE IN ABOUT 100 YEARS.

QC WC 05:35 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Target on Usd/yen reached and now short. Watching and waiting for levels to reverse again around or below 109.

wellington am 05:21 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bgd PS 04:44 GMT July 16, 2004
And hence the confusion. I was talking about $/yen hitting parity. cheers mate.

QC WC 05:19 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:24 GMT July 14, 2004

So after Thurs close your view is still to long GBP? What level good to buy?

melbourne farmacia 05:05 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
ML - once I configure my outlook program, i'll pop you my current chart & view.

ICT ML 04:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia.....I forgot all about the Nikkei/YEN correlation in my request....will have to add that to it if they respond positively

I think I can get it done.

You still looking for 1.9200 and higher levels on her majesty? That is still my inclination for now.

Bgd PS 04:44 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 04:39 GMT July 16, 2004

Yes Wellington, and your statement: " a lot of folk have it heading down to parity with the usd" (I persume you are talking about eur) - that is $ bullish as well. Isn't it?

Wellington am 04:39 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bgd PS 04:28 GMT July 16, 2004
No confusion mate. shanghai bc wrote:
"I believe buying Dollar/yen anything below 110 is a good value"
This would indicate a bullish usd, not bearish.

melbourne farmacia 04:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
ML - I suggested a Dollar Index chart late last year to them... very responsive too... We just need more numbers asking for extra add ons etc...

Bgd PS 04:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 03:59 GMT July 16, 2004

Listen to yourself!
You are asking why is bc bullish $/jpy, and you are hearing of $ heading for a parity (persume with euro). Isn't that $ bullish?

Roumeli anka 04:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
usdjpy... a sideway activity for the rest of the year between 110-115 as wave-b. A rise at around 118-120 early 2005 as wave-c and a nasty wave-5 to new lows after that.
Here is my chart

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=24201&u=contrarian&a=contrarian's&id=497

hk revdax 04:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 03:41 //Since you are here, look for a top in $/JY sometime today.

LAX-LGB SNP 04:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:55 GMT July 16, 2004
many thanks for your generousity !

Wellington am 03:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:55 GMT July 16, 2004
bc, what makes you bullish on $/yen? a lot of folk have it heading down to parity with the usd, and from what i've read, the fundamentals support a weaker usd.

HK [email protected] 03:52 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like baby-typhoon

http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/SE/00Latest.jpg

HK Kevin 03:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 03:37 GMT, I am here.

hk revdax 03:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:55 GMT//According to turtle traders, a spread more than 2 would invariably lead to loss by daytraders.

hk revdax 03:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 02:59 //No.8 has been hoisted. People like HK Kevin, HK ab are trying to hide their azz from the onslaught of typhoon.

Mukalla 03:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Aud/usd going to 7280 again today ?????

KL KL 02:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Is this the calm before storm...has typhoon hit Hong Kong Yet??...

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 02:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
when does the next one begin on the yen?

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 02:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
when does the next one begin on the yen?

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:25 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Yen contractions about 28 min apart each time,.., been timing it.

Syd EM 02:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Goldman Sachs, as expects near-term risks skewed toward downward correction. Notes RBA's recent report, endorsing view Australian house prices falling, and adds it took profit on its long AUD/USD position, which was opened on July 6 at 0.7010
Does anyone share their view ?

Rye, NY et 02:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Re: above: scroll down and click "Get chart"

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 02:13 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
usd yen testing 109.50 curious break for downside possible use caution stops gl gt

Rye, NY et 02:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Crude;Nikkei since April

Syd EM 02:06 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
China's 2Q GDP Up 9.6% Vs Consensus Up 10.6%

melbourne farmacia 01:59 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 01:21 GMT July 16, 2004
Morning.. one account still long Gbp, the another currently long from todays support. Expecting some good moves friday based on yesterdays small daily range. GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:57 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Bc// Thank you Sir.

Good trades to you also...

shanghai bc 01:55 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   

RAFE -- Good morning..Nikkei/Yen co-relation is excellent and it is necessary to use two charts side by side to trade Yen even for day-traders..I am no good at day trading ..DollarYen may fluctuate between 110-105 short-term..But I believe buying Dollaryen anything below 110 is a good value for money for coming weeks and months ..As good as money in the bank..Good trades.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:49 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
fye=fyi for your info

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:48 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
wire note if usd yen looses 109.50 then offloading is expected fye, gl and gt, alwayse use stops

ny amc 01:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
covered usd/jpy short at 109.55 for a quick 35 pips....

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:41 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
if you are asking me, my view is to 109.20-30 range, but ive pulled 50 out now, and have reshorted here, at 109.52 depends on news, and sentement, use caution and stop losses is my opnion, ------ on anythhing you trade good luck and good trading

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:38 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
bc// Sir, kindly can you tell what is your view on dlr/yen for today?

TIA.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
buy signal=long signal

for those who have not grabbed on yet =)

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:37 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
euro just gave buy signal.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:36 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
well their is 50 of the 100 downside on usd jpy wonder if their is 50 more any opnions?

shanghai bc 01:25 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
dlr jpy may not be over yet, use caution and stop losses gl gt

KL KL 01:21 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 01:14 GMT July 16, 2004 , are you still bias long gbpusd...your long still open??

Syd EM 01:21 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
According to Tokyo dealers large-sized stop-loss orders placed around 1.2320

melbourne farmacia 01:20 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:14 GMT July 16, 2004

Saturday

hk ab lazy 01:17 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy 109.70 filled.

Thanks farmacia.

bc// Good morning.

melbourne farmacia 01:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Asian CB on the bid ab... option related 1.2300....

shanghai bc 01:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   

Which day is not driven by fear and greed?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
if it breaks 1.2312 then we go down to about 1.2268 or below to the next pivot.

1.2446
1.2423
1.2401
1.2379
1.2357 {p}
1.2334
1.2312
1.2290
1.2268

hk ab lazy 01:10 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
anyone know if there's an option at 1.23?

Seems to me it's the protection leading to these bouncing.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
todays trading will be emotionally driven.

Melbourne Qindex 01:07 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:04 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP testing 1.8476..

LDN FT 01:04 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
UK's Blair Loses By-Election in Wake of Iraq Report

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair's party lost a parliamentary by-election on Friday, after narrowly avoiding defeat in another, in the wake of a damning report on the intelligence he used to justify war in Iraq.

Parmjit Singh Gill of the Liberal Democrats won 10,274 votes in the Leicester South seat, beating the ruling Labour candidate by more than 1,600 votes. At the 2001 general election, Labour's majority was more than 13,000.

In the Birmingham seat of Hodge Hill Labour just held off the LibDems by 460 votes as their 2001 majority of 11,000-plus was all but wiped out. Both seats have large Muslim populations, making the Iraq war a hot topic.

Livingston nh 01:01 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Anybody know whether China Q2 Gdp out?

hk ab lazy 00:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
small long limit at dlr/jpy 109.70.

hk ab lazy 00:50 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
EM// If you think so, this summer will give you a very painful lesson, GL.

1.2200-30 will be a buy area if I am an eur BULL.
110.45-55 is my sell area.
.7050 aud is my TP
dlrcad...... Sing, I believe it can fly.

Syd EM 00:46 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy in a trendless market most traders are watching US data like hawks.. plus any other market moving news they can get hold of

hk ab lazy 00:43 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
news-driven fx guess is fatal in this industry.



Syd EM 00:36 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Breaks Below 1.8500 After By-Election Result

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/3898823.stm

Syd EM 00:36 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Breaks Below 1.8500 After By-Election Result

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/3898823.stm

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:36 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
now dlr yen at it's pivot! i got a neutral signal

ny amc 00:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Dan...k...........I just shorted usd/jpy at 109.90.........looking for a pullback to 109.35-40 tonight. s/l at 110.20

Goes (NL) B747 00:28 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:26 GMT July 16, 2004

good luck with your short USD/JPY position, I pray for you that 107.20 will hit today.

gt

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:27 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
but ive been known to flip sides without warning -- lol

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:26 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
im short on dlr yen myself right now

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:25 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
newfxx// If your referring to me. it's Rafe, I am short on this pair for now.

LA newfxx 00:24 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
rave,

what is your view on gbp/usd?
thanks

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:23 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
was not making a call, on it was asking a ? of opnions, the wire was stating that this is lofty levels thats all --$ yen

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:19 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Yen= if it breaks 110.18 then we go for 110.50.

110.50
110.34
110.18
109.99
109.87 (p)
109.75
109.55
109.39
109.24

Goes (NL) B747 00:18 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:14 GMT July 16, 2004

we have your call, if right you are the only one who will be right around here.



KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:14 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
hummm, 100 pip reversal on dlr yen, potential came across my trading wire, hummm, kinda hard to beleive any opnions?

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:12 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
$ yen finding 110 tough

hk ab lazy 00:10 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
Rafe// yes, dlr/jpy momentum is strong.

Nikkei tanking reason?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP just gave a short signal!

hk ab lazy 00:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
how many yen can it break to the upside after 110.... interesting.

hk ab lazy 00:09 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
eur nice run.....

ac// let's see if your curse can send the eur to 1.19xx.....

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:05 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
dlr/yen ranging towards the buy side atm medium strength

hk ab lazy 00:03 GMT July 16, 2004 Reply   
KL, I don't see any chance for they intervene at this level but a push by some institutional names from the crosses might hurt the short dlr/jpy plan.

 




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