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Forex Forum Archive for 07/17/2004

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Mtl JP 23:16 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
NY 23:08 / and like any bible, subject to interpretation.. hehe

Spotforex NY 23:08 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Varna NEM 21:08

Check out the GV bookstore..John Murphy's tech analysis is the bible.......

Varna NEM 21:08 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
How can I forecast what the exchange rate of the x currency towards the y currency will be in short term on the basis of the past rates ? I will be grateful if somebody could help :)

Dublin CK 18:51 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
JP - So true, your never apreciate anything till you can lose or do lose it. Having next to nothing in my early college days was the best. No worries, no hassles. I worked to live and help out with tuition.

Cumino - Good point, I never thought of the "next guru's" like that. Its like saying no one remembers who came 2nd. Till they come 1st.

Mtl JP 17:46 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:18 / There is one uncomfortable feature to holding Gold: Fear of losing it to some who have the means to take it away. Saddam being a case in point. As one of cynical friends says: your troubles only start when you have something to lose (presumably because you have no means to defend it)

pd cumino 16:40 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
There is a old valid rule, among analists. You have to forecast a quite spectacular event, mainly a contrarian event. No risk.
If that doesn't happen who will remember your name? You were that man before, you are the same man then. But if it happens, you are the next guru, and you will make money by saying everything. It is only a matter of luck, because sooner or later something, historically, happens in all the markets.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:18 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
I love Saturdays on the forum..lots of neat commentary when trading is closed and emotions aren't running high. London, that link about France was real interesting, especially the part about Nepoleon developing gold and silver hard currency ostensibly to prevent government abuse again. Feeding on this, it has been a slow demise of the USD since FDR removed gold from currency. A disagreement over removing silver from it preceeded JFK's assasination in fact...JFK wanted to keep silver not only in coinage but in the currency backing for "silver certificates" (remember those!) AND wanted to go back on the gold standard itself putting gold bullion back into backing notes to have a sho'nuff gold backed currency 100%, just like Nepoleon did.

The Fed I believe said that would not happen in disagreement with JFK, but I suspect there was/is a force behind the Fed, using the Fed as "point man". Whatever, that and the fact JFK didn't want a war in Vietnam; he wanted to befriend Ho Chi Minh and likely develop a Hawaii out of VN (pretty place actually), the man thought "development profits and not war" to make money. But unfortunately wars make lots of money for stock holders of the awardees of military contracts. Congressmen as well as LBJ were heavily invested in those awardees' stocks. Uh? War was inevitable just from that fact. So JFK was a 5th wheel preventing lots from happening with his love for his country, and was eliminated. Sorrily the resulting Warren Report, spoof as it was, was white wash to cover up the details of exactly who/what played what roles. No other government investigation ever resulted to this day. What basta'ds.

Now the USD is backed some say by only 8% precious metals, the rest as Scott points out is "thin air", highly vulnerable in my opinion to an eventual EURO buyout..sure setting itself up as such. Some say less than 8%...some say more. The actual amount of precious metal bullion and it's location(s) are kept secret..makes one think. The Swiss Franc is currently the highest backed c'ncy at 32%...68% of that even is "thin air". Some Arab groups want to reinstal the gold Dinar as hard currency in the Arab oil rich world. For them it would be a super move..for weakly backed paper currency countries, it would spell death.

Mtl JP 14:50 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
london 11:31 / in the same cheerful spirit, Bill Fleckenstein had recently published a thought-provoking missive.

Odds of a crash are higher than you think
Stock-market crashes are rare, statistically, but the odds today are dramatically higher than 'normal.' Ask yourself how you'll handle it.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:40 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
I might add that indeed these tidbits of information and countless others which economic professionals take their time to post are super valuable to all traders. Thanks to the GV team we have this free forum to serve in fact as the planet's unique such dynamic learning platform. (Valdez slides 2 beers down to Jay & John). My hat goes off to GV, it is an honor and valued privelege to be here.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:34 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 19:49 GMT & GVI John,
Thank you both so much for your valued explanations and I'm sure many here benefitted from them as well. From what you said then it seems like the Fed obviously has confidence in the US economy (I do trust their in depth analyses) and it's time like you said to move back to normal neutral rates to keep things even. It makes more sence now, thanks again for that commentary...some things I need to learn which I evidently skipped about economy and how it relates to Fed rates.

london 11:31 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP--very true,nonetheless, an excellent education tho, also, had Big Mac's been around then, surely would have been another excellent avenue for the 'salt smugglers' of that era provided they knew how...

Mtl JP 11:12 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
typo: dated July 15, 2004

Mtl JP 11:11 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
london 09:41 / thanx for the link; fun and entertaining if not educational reading. Small observation tho: .."In 1802, the French Franc was established, and it continues to this day".. The piece is dated July 14 2004. As we both know the French Franc is NO LONGER, and that from Jan 1. 1999, tsk tsk..

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 09:35 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 09:23 GMT

Will take some souvlakia with me..LOL!
AND for sure A BIG PILL to sleep!


hk revdax 09:23 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:34//17 hours are toooooooo long. Try to take a break inbetween. Stop by Taiwan or HK or Hawaii or some place where you could get a Big Mac.

saloniko 2004 nk...1.40+++ 07:34 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

The Good news is that soon (Septem)for first time will travel to China..

The Bad news is that, 17hrs have to be in a plane and i dont like it..(sniff..)

Hope will not be nessesary to take my air-contition together and Euro to meet my target till that time..cos if i will do this why not euro the target above..LOL!


van Gecko 07:04 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
The good news for Dollar bears is that the Dollar had settled down comfortably below Dollar Index 89 since the end of June, tilting the odds substantially for the resumption of its m/t bear trend down to Index 85 & lower..
Now, some good news for Dollar bulls..
The Dollar could extend this week's bear run & dip below Index 87 next week, but shell-shocked Dollar bulls can expect some s/t relief as the Dollar consolidates within the 87/89 Index band while both camps re-assess & carry out their mid trend accumulation/distributions strategies.. however, the bad new is that any reliefs may be short lived unless the Dollar regain Index 90..

Montrťal Taro 05:02 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
NYC mab 00:15 GMT July 17, 2004
Thank you for the kind word, we basically said the same thing, so it might be a good advice...Have a nice weekend all!!

hk revdax 02:56 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:43 GMT July 16//When BC mentioned buying $/JY, it is for the long term, or longer than many small account margin could afford. When I mentioned selling $/JY, it was for the short term and for small traders with small margin.

No idea on CAD. I did not take profit at the top but still managed to make a bit this time.

USA Biscuit Boy 02:47 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys....was out of town today but downward dollar bias continued today I see. I will update my page early Asia opening for those interested.

Tarheel nice trade on the kiwi mate......I will hold my long for higher levels......good weekend all :)

Vienna GD 02:27 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Canada mb: Watch the charts and lots of new highs against USD ... traders and investors flee USD assets infront of elections ... this could go on until november ... maybe, maybe not ... but the trend shows the direction.
I'm trading currencies, metals and stocks ... 100% short USD.

One of the mechanisms that affects the level of the US dollar is net capital inflows. That is the net of US treasuries purchased by foreign sources. That report was made this morning and shows a defined fall off in net purchases upon which the US government depends to finance its ever climbing expenses.
Net Inflows:
February 2004 = $83.6 billion
March 2004 = $76.8 billion
April 2004 = $76.0 billion
May 2004 = $56.4 billion
Maybe we will see some retracements on monday ... maybe.
gl, gt

Vienna GD 02:05 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Canada mb: I also lost about 20000 within some weeks ... thereafter I changed to mini's ... and since that time almost all trades got profitable .... patience is the name of the game ... the usual lots (unless you are a millionaire) don't allow patience ... they kill ya overnight!

Melbourne Qindex 01:54 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dublin CK 01:19 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Canada mb 00:14 GMT July 17, 2004

All the previous posters messages are excellent; I shall just add my 2 cents.

I know how you feel; I wiped out my first account in using CFD's very much the same way you did. I had luck with small trades, thought I had sufficient knowledge and wham. Account flatlined over a matter of days, I was devastated. Someone on this forum once said (in so many words "The market has a tendency of putting manners on traders every so often." Which is very true, it happens to most people.

Itís a slow painful process, education I believe is the best way forward and a determined mind and spirit. Ur gut instinct is to marry the trade and hope it retraces back towards your original position. That might, might not happen. I donít know, itís your call at the end of the day. U might decide to cut your losses and wait for another opportunity. Itís up to you.

My advice is cut and run immediately if the money is anyway supposed to be used to maintain a family. Nobody knows your financial situation. U are in a hole at the moment, make sure it doesnít become a crater you canít climb out of.

My friend, best wishes and fingers crossed.

Spr Noods 00:35 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply
apparently somewhere here al QAEDA was seeking the resignation of Berulusconi

NYC mab 00:15 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Your advice was better than mine. mb no matter what you do don't become stubborn. Look at your postion objectively and make your first priority holding onto th capital you have left.

Canada mb 00:14 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Thank you all for taking the time to answer me. Your advice is very sensible. I did trade a demo, and I did limit my exposure, etc and I had so many small successful trades(usd1000 profit per day) that I began to feel like superman. I chased the USD all the way down instead of stopping out with a loss of a few hundred dollars. Man, do I feel stupid! Thanks again for the sage words.

Montrťal Taro 00:04 GMT July 17, 2004 Reply   
Canada mb
You said you were a new trader ? Why did you put so much money while learning ? Why put any money while learning ? There is a lot more doctors that succeed their class than traders who succeed. And doctors don't practice on alive patient.
My suggestion is stop trading, learn, build your strategy, whatever it is, tech. analysis, fundamentals... Spot the good traders on this site and learn from them. When you have a strategy, test it in the past if you can, then live on demo, then with minimum lot size... That way you won't lose your equity and you'll build confidence.


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