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Forex Forum Archive for 07/21/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : I would consider my 3-month projection profile is a much bigger celestial body than my weekly cycle quantized level. BTW I would imagine that the key quantized level of my weekly cycle in next week will shift higher.

Melbourne Qindex 23:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
houston st 23:51 GMT - USD/CHF : The key quantized level of my 3-month projection profile is positioning at 1.2993.

Syd 23:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Noods if your around appreciate your Aud views.

WASH DC SRQ 23:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
houston st 23:41 GMT July 21, 2004
thanks. you too.

houston st 23:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Q -- I think alot of the celestial bodies from this forum, including me, got too close to a black hole and almost got sucked in...the rise of the $ was relentless, and almost everyone I spoke to was puking a position...still itching to sell usd/chf and the yen crosses...I'll keep watching the skies (and charts) for a sign!
good luck/trades.

Melbourne Qindex 23:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 23:46 GMT - We have to wait and see how it goes. USD/JPY is in a neutral position at this moment.

QC WC 23:46 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, oh so you mean the contis will weaken but the Yen will firm up.

Melbourne Qindex 23:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 23:41 GMT - The odds are high that Yen crosses are going to make a move today.

Melbourne Qindex 23:42 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
houston st 23:35 GMT - I am fine, thank you. We have to shift our attention from weekly cycles to monthly cycles. A better analogy to our key quantized level is a big celestial body. If a comet can swing away from a big celestial body, it must carry a great momentum and it has a long way to go in the deep space.

QC WC 23:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, in that case the Yen crosses will be nuetral?

houston st 23:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
WASH DC SRQ 23:40 GMT -- approx. 19 minutes...good trades.

WASH DC SRQ 23:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
houston st 23:35 GMT July 21, 2004

In how many minutes from now does asian session open up please?

ty

Melbourne Qindex 23:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : I have a feeling that this pair will run in a different manner.




Melbourne Qindex 02:28 GMT July 18, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 108.73 and the key quantized level is positioning at 109.77. Initially the market is going to vibrate around the critical level at 108.73 with an expected magnitude of 107.68 - 109.77. A projected supporting point is located at 106.64. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a potential to tackle the extreme region of 111.86 - 112.60 if the market can overcome 110 mark. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 105.60 // 106.12. The upper barrier is expected at 110.82 // 111.34. The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=1.043) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 106.64 - 110.82 (Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 110.30 or open a long position around the lower barrier at 105.60 // 106.12).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 105.60* // 106.12 - 106.64* - 107.16 - 107.68* - 108.21 - 108.73* - 109.25 - (109.77)* - 110.30 - 110.82 // 111.34 - 111.86* ...


houston st 23:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
QINDEX -- what a wild 24 hours...I hope you and your super magnet survived it in one piece...

speaking of surviving in one piece, I see on Drudge that a severe storm hit Miami.....if Miami OMIL is around please let us know you are okay...good trades to all during Asian session.

Melbourne Qindex 23:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Va Raven 23:23 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the insight, NH.

Melbourne Qindex 23:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:57 GMT July 17, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7291. The critical level is positioning at 0.7314 - 0.7361. Initially the market is going to vibrate around 0.7314 with an expected magnitude of 0.7267 - 0.7361. The lower barrier is expected at 0.7127 // 0.7174. The upper barrier is located at 0.7408 // 0.7455. The market rhythm is represented by 47 pips (k=0.0046764) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.7080 - 0.7501. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7314 or a long position when AUD/USD is trading above 0.7361).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 0.6987 ... 0.7080 - 0.7127 // 0.7174 - 0.7221 - (0.7267 - 0.7314) - 0.7361 - 0.7408 // 0.7455 - 0.7501 ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : This pair gave the earliest warning signal for a strong US$ market in my system. This is followed by EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Global-View Research 23:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Taking Stock Post Greenspan (FXA)

I do not know anyone who is enjoying this market. It is the mother of all wood chippers. Views and positions regardless of what side of the market(s), invariably end up in the wood chipper, and usually within a few days of asset markets and exchange rates "breaking out". Markets have a serious dependency on Greenspan and it arguably amplifies volatility. I have images of Pete Townsend windmill strumming his guitar in front of screaming youth some 35 years ago next month in the Catskills...complete adulation there at the Woodstock nation. Well I am older and marginally wiser, and Townsend does it do it for me anymore than Greenspan. Don't get me wrong I still love the Who and admire Greenspan. But I am skeptical that either will lead me to the promised land.... See full update on our new research section... CLICK HERE

Brooklyn mhi 23:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you for your comments

SYD 22:10 GMT July 21, 2004
S 22:43 GMT July 21, 2004

Melbourne Qindex 23:05 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:00 GMT July 21, 2004
USD/CHF : The market was able to trade above the upper barrier at 1.2364 // 1.2426 of my weekly cycle for the last 24 hours. This would suggest that a trending market is developing. We will put our attention to the location of my monthly cycle upper barrier.

Melbourne Qindex 08:47 GMT July 17, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2175 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2301. Initially the market is going to consolidate between 1.2175 - 1.2301. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.2050. The lower barrier is located at 1.1987 // 12050. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2364 // 1.2426. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 63 pips (k=0.006271) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.1987 - 1.2364. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2113).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.1987 // 1.2050 - 1.2113 - 1.2175 - 1.2238 - (1.2301) - 1.2364 // 1.2426 ... 1.2614 ...

Livingston nh 22:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raven - think G'span was a little concerned that the carry trades that had been unwound in the Spring were starting to rise again as 10 yr rallied -- "measured" was being interpreted as .25 with plenty of time for all players to exit later -- he didn't yell fire but I think may have said smoke in order to speed the players towards the door

Syd 22:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Also got Australian Treasurer Costello talking about the election on Sydney Radio ,says this year's election will be close, with opposition Labor ahead in opinion polls on two-party preferred basis. says it looks like election might be held possibly in September or October which may be bearish Aud now

Syd 22:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven also noticed he mentioned that in his talk... anyone got the transcript ?

WASH DC SRQ 22:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 22:47 GMT July 21, 2004

Could u please share why u went short eur/usd today.what chart directions did u use pls? I am pleased with ur calls today.

thanks

Va Raven 22:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
"carry trades" sorry.

Va Raven 22:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Speaking of the "cary trades" issue that Greenspan mentioned yesterday, anyone know what he exactly meant by that, I mean why he mentioned that as it's not in Q&A situation?

Tallinn viies 22:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
anyway, I got to go now.
tommorow morning stop must be trailed to 1,2319.
cu later

S 22:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUDsuffering amid general pressure on high-yielding FX more hawkish Fed Chairman Greenspan Dealers saying that carry-trades start to unwind.

Tallinn viies 22:42 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
yes of course,
I like those times when liqutations is going on...
money is there..
just collect it :)

Va Raven 22:38 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
You mean his personal account, viies?

KL KL 22:37 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Long eurusd here at 1.2255 looking for 1.2350, SL 1.2246. Time to move up now or lets see how $ strength can carry on ...gl gt

Tallinn viies 22:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 22:25 GMT - hows pope money doing?

Tallinn viies 22:28 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
going to bed now.
stop and revese level lowered to 1,2364 ...
cu later

QC WC 22:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, are you implying Today 22nd will be a reversal date?
What level will you start to long GBP? TIA

Va Raven 22:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Ya, scientists may name that as the "viies situation".

Tallinn viies 22:23 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
we just tested 50% retracement of the days move...
and failed.
now after hourly stochastic crosses lower, sell it big time again :)

Tallinn viies 22:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
situations like this comes only once in a quater,
this time is exactly sitation like that. shoot and it is hard to loose money. market is so bearish.
we gonna see 1,2160 today :)

Johannesburg JW 22:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallin Viies, congrats, you trade as a true tech. trader. Simple and effective. Keep your posts rolling

SYD 22:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Up The Stairs & Down The Chute As Carry Trades Unwind

LAX-LGB SNP 22:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
JK - likewise :-)

FWiW 1.3270 has held USDCAD 4 times this month

also since 0.90 kick-off, EURUSD tested 21ma twice, 50ma once, 21 ma again and 50 ma again - this recent selloff seems to be aiming for 21 ma (approx 1.2150) but doubt if current weekly selloff (after 5 weeks of buying) goes on esp since price cannot close below last month's 1.2245

Bgd PS 22:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

Thanks for your view Tallinn.

Tallinn viies 22:05 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
idea is that situatin is so bearish right now that shoot only. money comes later :)

Tallinn viies 22:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sorry 1,2357 stop now. far away yes but not achievable at this momtant I guess

Roumeli anka 22:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
eurusd... a bearish chart

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=24623&u=contrarian&a=contrarian's&id=497

Bgd PS 21:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 21:56 GMT July 21, 2004

Very big stop this time Tallinn!

Caribbean! Rafe... 21:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I guess I was right last night about the dlr/yen pivot being at 109.25, when it was trading at 108.55, it really did perform.


i'll go about generating next days levels so be back later on.

Tallinn viies 21:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
going short here at 1,2277.
stop at 1,2377-
target 1,2170 now
cu

U.K. J.B. 21:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (nl) b747

Class post re your dolls/yen trades heh this Forex business is easy a license to print money

Good noight all at least you are bearish....

Brooklyn mhi 21:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ny market big range day approx 190 and closed down 100 points this should afffect nikkei wonder what effect this will have on usd/yen?

on another thought a decent pullback on aud/usd to 72 any opinions tia

Bgd PS 21:45 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

Thanks Tallin.

Tallinn viies 21:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
closed my long position here.
now its time to short it big time again

Bgd PS 21:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 21:30 GMT July 21, 2004

was that closing your long position from earlier or openning new short position?

TIA

U.K. J.B. 21:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk

very little cost today short dolls/yen currently 109.97 let the boys have there day no special interest at moment would rather be out in my boat fishing for sea bass c u soon GL

Roumeli anka 21:33 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
spot gold @ 397.8

Roumeli anka 15:02 GMT July 21, 2004
spot gold at 395.2, close to the rising trendline, time to sell the $ again.

Tallinn viies 21:30 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
hi again boyz n galz!
:)
sold
my euros here again...
at 1,2267 sold it!
tnks guys again
I need that money today :)
cu tom

nyc jk 21:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
cheers SNP. well I guess making a little money better than losing! gl to you

LAX-LGB SNP 21:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
jk - tell me abt it ... i closed usd longs much too soon ;-) compared to June, July is @ half-strength
anticipating EUR$ pullback to 1.23+ as long as 1.2245 holds

nyc jk 21:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. - sounds like the same boat as you my friend, I posted this on the GVI side earlier:

nyc jk 15:50 GMT July 21, 2004
st - a bit on the sidelines now except for a couple intraday trades I had. stopped out of the longs in EUR, AUD, GBP I posted yesterday obviously. the good news is even with the losses on reestablishing those positions, net net still did very well with the longs. the bad news is, had some big moves down and really didn't take advantage of them. inclined to agree with your view now, but I just wait and see for now. gl

gl !




Philadelphia caba 20:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
(nowhere newbie 07:56 GMT July 21, 2004
ALL I see today is EUR/GBP
Buy EUR at 0.6650 Stop-loss: 0.6600. Profit target: 0.6815.)
Hi, your view for next few days? Thanks.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUDUSD

EURGBP

EURUSD

USDCAD

USDCHF

all views appreciated ! TIA :-)

dammam m 19:32 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
test

usa kcmo 18:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
FX CHARTS NOT WORKING?

KL KL 17:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GEP, oilman...man where are you these days...need some of your wisdom mate...tia

Van jv 17:38 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tech. people? EUR Short term getting/is OS...and MACD daily OB and crossed....

Porto PJT 17:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Order to sell usd/chf at 1,2550(done), + 1,26, + 1,2695, stop 1,2725, target 1,2250.

ny amc 16:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
You want to laugh....Microsoft declared a one-time special dividend to there shareholders yesterday....Gates take on that will be 3.3 billion and they icreased there quarterly dividend as well so he makes an extra 180 million a year now

Paris jony 16:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 :and what u will do if the 120 printed.......

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sorry the comments are for the eur/usd pair.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
It is kind of early and no buying signal is given by my system but I believe that the bottom has been set for now. FWIW resistance is found around 1.2250-60, 2280-90, 2320-30, 2360-70 and 2380-90 for now IMHO. GL GT

p p 16:39 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 16:26 , why you ask opinion if you have all the awnsers?good luck.

Goes (NL) B747 16:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
and remark about gold:

gold pays only profit/lose, not working for you.
you can sell gold only with a mice click or sell it to your local "hot stuff" dealer........is point clear?


gt

Goes (NL) B747 16:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ok, let's make it clear:

Target: NET 350% @ 21/JUL/2009 over certain amount in USD

to make USD 1/- into USD 4.50/- in FX trading you need 450pips run...calculate intersest and the rest.

sounds less crazy now?


gt



HK Kevin 16:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 15:40 GMT, why not define a market range before entering a trade?

Van jv 16:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Problem of acquiring skills for workers---nobody asks if a certai percentage 0f workers /actually at all levels/is able to do that??

lnd 16:09 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747. seriously speaking. think you are better off doing things via the options market. the fact that you can afford the pain means that you can afford to see an option expire worthless but when it goes ITM you will be a star. your style of trading is probably going to be costly for your p&l as the market is very rare in offering the kind of rewards for your kind of strategy for too long. the margin call usually gets you before you retire. anyway gl and gt to you.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
A bounce from this support and an objective reached for eur/usd I believe it is time to take the money and run with a possible test of 1.2170-80 for now and a key support coming up at 1.2150-60. Intraday indicators are in O/S area screaming to unwind at this time with retracement numbers at 1.2305-10, 2335-40 and 2365-70 as long as this support holds IMHO. GL GT

Van jv 16:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
A.G: Business caution may stretch future expansion

Van jv 16:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Adjourned--written question to be presented

Eilat Dolphin 16:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
B747/ You'd be better off buying a 747 and attempting to take off blindfolded.

U.K. J.B. 16:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk

Trend yr frd today , i was not part of it but my strict s/l policy saved the day u ok ??

Goes (NL) B747 16:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:52 GMT July 21, 2004

it is not about deep pockets, it is about doing the right thing.
I actually like the FX world but do not like doing that, favt!

so, I look for away to combine the long time vision (Asia going further) with investment within higher than average products.

gt

Eilat Dolphin 16:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
B 747/ You'd be better off buying a 747 and attempting to take off blindfolded.

Web fxperience.cjb.net 16:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
All trades that were called here on the forum have been closed.

Result : +1,265 pips .

No new trades for the rest of the month.

GT GL everyone

Discipline is everything

p p 16:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 15:40 , if you go to do some kind of long term strategy/trade why you dont try one where rollover is good for you? 5 years rollover against, have you calculated how many pips you will loose only in rollover?
and you are putting all eggs in the same basket.....even if it is with a mini account........good luck.

nyc jk 15:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
b747 - looks like the ol' keep doubling your bet until you make back your money blackjack strategy. the odds that you at least breakeven with it are high, of course as $/JPY keeps going up, so does your risk of ruin.....

Bruxville Jim 15:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hello, mates! I'm back from a small rest;)

Goes (NL) B747 15:40 GMT // If your pockets are deep enough to acquire (and survive some volatility) more than 200 lots all the way over 117 - why do you bother at all about 1 lot of short now?

GER ad 15:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD,
out at 0.7147 (-8 pips)

Goes (NL) B747 15:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY I consider to take the following long term investment:

Short @ 110.20 (1 lot)

in case it goes extreme higher than:
short @ 111.25 (2 lots)
short @ 112.30 (4 lots)
short @ 113.35 (8 lots)
short @ 114.40 (16 lots)
short @ 115.45 (32 lots)
short @ 116.50 (64 lots)
short @ 117.55 (128 lots)........

target 108.60/-
max lots can load 512....for a good return within 5years!!!
as I mentioned on top...an investment!!!

will sail a bit and will make my mind, looks better the daily headache....any opinions?

gt all

Sydney Alimin 15:39 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
houston st: yes i would certainly wait until NY close to see where we end up at after all this mess

houston st 15:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 15:19 GMT -- I certainly changed my mind about buying cable @ 1.8460...as they say, this too shall pass...good trades to you.

sgp sp 15:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good night Dr Q

Sydney Alimin 15:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
well i mentioned earlier 1.85 is a very good resistance for pound and now 1.84 is a good one too LOL, suddenly 1.86 handle is almost forgotten

houston ken 15:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
mel i agree with you 100% this dollar run will continue for awhile.

Nottingham 15:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, of the cont majors, chf is closest to os, being about half a figure off...ahead of that, a couple of trendlines come in below 2600...gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 15:18 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good night and good trades to all of you.

Melbourne Qindex 15:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Don't under estimate the current market movement.

Tallinn viies 15:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
need to run for today.
left order to buy more euros at 1,2175.
cu later

U.K. J.B. 15:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I would be very careful bucking the trend this aft. I know i look for value and tend to be contrarian at certain levels but as i menioned earlier something is not right today i.e very illiquid dangerous markets. I would suggest a strict s/l policy. GL

lnd 15:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
baharain...good call on $/cad. lucky for me i stayed long after your post that you went long at 83. gt.

Tallinn viies 15:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
seriously said 1,2215 is 50% retracement level for 1,1770-1,2465 move.

also we are out from lower bollinger band and up trendline is quite close....

Melbourne Qindex 15:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : It is going to enter into the new trading range of 385.7 - 395.7 and the mid-point reference is 390.7.

Antwerp Tom 15:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Norwich, Ind, Viies my tiny voice gets direct instructions from my G-spot (the GREED-spot) LOL

Roumeli anka 15:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
spot gold at 395.2, close to the rising trendline, time to sell the $ again.

lnd 15:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:52 GMT. i always think twice about tiny voices that say things to me in my head. but then its either the voices or my wife...guess its voices it is then. gl

norwich mc 15:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
my tiny voice lie's to me! can i listen to yours :-)

U.K. J.B. 14:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Fine performance buy the doolar today r/r selling dolls/yen 109.97 s/l 110.30 call level target 108.25

Antwerp Tom 14:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Viies, I know this tiny voice too well...LOL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Evening star on the daily charts, Greenspan talking or a mix of both has the eur/usd headed straight to test the 1.2205-15 support at this time IMHO. GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 14:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 14:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 14:49 - because inside me there was tiny voice which said BUY THE EURO HERE

Riga RIA 14:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Talk exporters selling from 109.90/110..GL

Melbourne Qindex 14:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:46 GMT July 17, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2436. The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2386. Initially the market is going to consolidate around 1.2386 - 1.2436. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2589. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 1.2231 // 1.2283. The upper barrier is located at 1.2589 // 1.2640. The market rhythm is represented by 102 pips (k=0.010217) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2283 - 1.2589. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.2589 ).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2180* - 1.2231 // 1.2283* - 1.2334 - 1.2385* - (1.2436) - 1.2487* - 1.2538 - 1.2589 // 1.2640 - 1.2691* ...

Melbourne Qindex 14:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:49 GMT July 17, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.8697 and the critical level is located at 1.8801. Initially the market is going to consolidate between 1.8697 - 1.8801. A projected resistant point is expected at 1.8905. The lower barrier is located at 1.8385 // 1.8489. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9009 // 1.9112. The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=0.0138) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.8489 - 1.8905. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of taking a long position if the market is trading above 1.8905 and a short position if the market is trading below 1.8801).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.8282 - 1.8385 // 1.8489 - 1.8593 - (1.8697) - 1.8801 - 1.8905 - 1.9009 // 1.9112 ...

Antwerp Tom 14:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Dr.Q's super magnet (post 10:45 GMT) at 1.2209 will be hit
Viies, how come you suddenly turned € bullish?

Ldn Viewer 14:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Well 110.00 hit ... hope you all enjoyed the ride , I didnt wait long enough .. to those who did Kudos... USD seems king for a day .. lets see if the reign lasts

Sydney Alimin 14:38 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
dollar index is looking to take the 89 level

SD tht 14:37 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
All I can say is congrats to all top pickers above 1.24.

Nottingham 14:37 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
np sgp sp

Tallinn viies 14:37 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
hi again,
bought euros 1,2236 fwiw

manila stubbs 14:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone have a target for gbp?
TIA

Melbourne Qindex 14:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:28 GMT July 18, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle ) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 108.73 and the key quantized level is positioning at 109.77. Initially the market is going to vibrate around the critical level at 108.73 with an expected magnitude of 107.68 - 109.77. A projected supporting point is located at 106.64. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a potential to tackle the extreme region of 111.86 - 112.60 if the market can overcome 110 mark. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 105.60 // 106.12. The upper barrier is expected at 110.82 // 111.34. The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=1.043) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 106.64 - 110.82 (Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 110.30 or open a long position around the lower barrier at 105.60 // 106.12).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 105.60* // 106.12 - 106.64* - 107.16 - 107.68* - 108.21 - 108.73* - 109.25 - (109.77)* - 110.30 - 110.82 // 111.34 - 111.86* ...


Riga RIA 14:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Talk fresh stops n bids mixed ard 1.2240-20, us big guys expect test 1.2200 today..GL

Melbourne Qindex 14:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:07 GMT - GBP/USD : I will post the most appropriate cycle ranges in a minutes.

Gold Coast martin 14:32 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Next crucial level for aus is 7125...should this be breached aud will find itself in the trading range of 68-72 of 2 weeks ago.Euros next crucial level is 122...should this level be breached euro will finf itself in the 118-123 trading range of 2 weeks ago....expect thse trading ranges to hold until 30th of july....g/t

sgp sp 14:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, nottingham, for taking the trouble to answer my mail. All the Best 2 u :)

Riga RIA 14:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
usdmxn also run higher follow total usd buying today , main ress zone now remain at 11,4650 break abv cud see move to 11.50/53, sppt now 11.41 n 11.3650....GL

Riga RIA 14:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sgd sp , hi, good luck

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 14:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
well i must have missed it why is the usd jpy up?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Stock Last Short Long Hours ahead Short ( T+ 24 ) Long ( T+ 24 ) Decision Probablity
EURCHF 60 minutes 1.5333 1.5287 1.5168 24 1.5219 1.5130 Sell 75%
USDCHF 60 minutes 1.2487 1.2358 1.2190 24 1.2303 1.2145 Sell 75%

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
With all the $ buying happening with Greenspan's silver tongued monologue, the $ STILL HAS a nasty trade deficit ($1B+/day) and it is almost guaranteed that when the 3 yr. EUR/USD support line is hit and the air rushes out of $ sails, will be a mad dash out of the $ resulting in a FAST reversal to rejoin the heretofore trend. Careful of whipsaw traps in the next 2 days that take out stop losses before the final impact of the 3 yr support trend line, to make the subsequent charge of $ bears well greased.

sgp sp 14:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Ria,

I am surprised to see a post on usd/sgd....must be a first for me. Nonetheless...it is great to read your view abt my country's ccy. Keep it coming.

gl & gt.

Nottingham 14:18 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp, you have mail

Gen dk 14:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GER ad 14:15 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD,
Long again at 0.7155

Riga RIA 14:13 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
usdsgd good jumped to 1.7150 after stops triggering abv 1.7110/30, dont hear abt good offers unitil 1.7200...seems sgd now follow jpy...ress 1.7160 n 1.7200..GL

Ldn Viewer 14:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Riga RIA 14:07 - Not with EUR offered and USD so bid

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
reinforce the $ bears' onslaught CHANGE TO reinforce the $ BULL'S onslaught. That's what I get for posting before my 2nd cup of coffee.

Riga RIA 14:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
stops now done abv 6.05 usdzar n 11.19/20 gbpzar..gl

Riga RIA 14:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, viewer... thin us market now...think we cud see fresh selling only from 6.10..GL

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:05 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
That 3 year support line still looks like support for current dollar bulls...around 1.2150ish. If Greenspan's Q&A period is what we think, it will reinforce the $ bears' onslaught, likely touching in the next 36 hrs the support line. I've held off layering more eur/usd longs for my December target until the bear charge subsides to place the brunt of my play then and placing possies upward. At 1.2150, if we reach it, I'll layer longs again. I'm not shorting this AT ALL even tho the shorting hype is baiting the trap, as uncertain waters sucker punch raiders all too often, but so is the trading mind of a position man who is not a day trader.

Ldn Viewer 14:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Riga - Your Rand info spot on .. and follow through ... Poor exporters , think they are getting a bargain and all that is happening is they are being sucked in ...

Tallinn viies 14:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
closed all short at 1,2282 fwiw cu

GER ad 13:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD,
out at 0.72 look like can go a little lower today.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/USDJPY.htm

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
if after 8 minutes hourly stochastic crosses higher, I need to buy my position back.

NYC 13:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan will repeat his prepared text to the House Financial Services Committee today so the focus will be on the Q&A period.

slv sam 13:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
imho one of the best buy at the moment is aud/$ at 0.7185. target 0.75 not 4 so long!GT

Goes (NL) B747 13:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:29 GMT July 21, 2004

I hope you play for USD 100/- per pips or more, days like today deliver 200pips within range of 90pips.


gt

Tallinn viies 13:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 - thnks again I,ll try to survive :)

I can give some pips back to the market, no problems.
others also want to make money. right?
see you later (I hope near 1,2220)

Sydney Alimin 13:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
may i ask what's this 22nd july cycle day? TIA

Goes (NL) B747 13:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
if EUR/USD go above 1.2330....USD bears will start talking like the current bulls.

close below 1.2240 may give some hope to Europeans for better lives starting from 2006...1.2200-1.1700-1.1200-1.0700...back to real pricing or not?

gt

Goes (NL) B747 13:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:09 GMT July 21, 2004

again becareful!!!
wake-up call always arrive when you cannot waker than what you are...becareful.
to make my point clearer....cemetries are full with bodies of brave people.

do not want go against your mood, just making sure you are awake and aware!!!

gt

Van jv 13:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
The futures markets are quite a bit higher this morning after a slew of very positive earnings led by (the news from) Microsoft," said Harry Michas, stock index futures trader at manmarketmonitor.com. "Greenspan's comments today could help continue this rally."

Investors are confident that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will continue to make upbeat comments about the economy when he speaks to the U.S. House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee at 1400 GMT.

Sydney Alimin 13:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
viies,you got the bounce you wanted :) you are one happy man these few days

Tallinn viies 13:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
they said this nuclear story in Iraq is stupid fwiw

Eilat Dolphin 13:18 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Iraki MP says story stupid.

slv sam 13:17 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
may be 22/July already started?? Take care!.GT

Dallas DH 13:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hey GER ad,

Like your AUD/USD retracement play.

GER ad 13:12 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Long AUD/USD at 0.7186 tight S/L

Dallas DH 13:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD in 1.83 land!
Retracement play coming soon.

Targeting 1.8340's!

Tallinn viies 13:09 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 13:03 - I,ll try.
but usually I let the market prove me that Im wrong. right now surfing on the waves of FX sea and it feels super :)

anyway, we are right now at serious levels. no bounces show clearly that sellers are serious about they are doing.
more likely sharks will help them also now on the way down to 1,2210.
btw isnt there 200 day ma near 1,2190?

Sydney Alimin 13:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
good call Dr Q, as usual, your super magnets are just awesome! looks like you need to put new trading range again for pound :)

Goes (NL) B747 13:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:56 GMT July 21, 2004


becareful, fire have some affects beside it's beauty!!!


gt

Eilat Dolphin 13:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Location: northwest on Bagdad... if true.

Riga RIA 13:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Same rumour abt very good EURUSD n GBPUSD selling from US invest-- we quick move to 1.2265 n 1.8380...GL

Eilat Dolphin 13:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Strange story carried by a Iraki daily al Sahah, taken by UPI stating that Iraki security forces uncovered a concrete trench with three nukies mounted on missiles. FWIW

Tallinn viies 12:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
at 1,2276 bought back half. reselling again at 1,2305-15 fwiw

Antwerp Tom 12:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Viies, great call! You did it again

Dallas,Texas DH 12:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Wow!

The US counter curr shorts are smiling. Looks like the GBP/USD may enter the 1.83's.

Tallinn viies 12:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
did you sold under 1,2310?
and bought back at 1,2285?
wait, we see 1,2270/75 also and maybe even 1,2210/20

sgp sp 12:33 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good Afternoon nottingham,

You got mail :)

gl & gt 2 u.

Roumeli anka 12:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney, yes we may see a violation. I remember the same pattern few weeks ago with nzdusd. The neckline was panetrated for a day or so but finaly worked out.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Nottingham.
Good post John thank you for your comments that shed some light on the subject.
chicago forex thank you to for bringing up this subject in a strange way. ;-)

Tallinn viies 12:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
if you are brave enough selling in front of 1,2310/15 is adviced. stop over 1,2350. fwiw
hourly highs and lows still lower and lower...

Sydney Alimin 12:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
if NY also buying dollar, i think the neckline of the inverse SHS mentioned by Roumeli anka and also Max McKegg could be breached tonight....very interesting set up....as how strongly bullish market couple days back can suddenly be put into question within several sessions selling action

Ldn Viewer 12:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Riga RIA 11:57 GMT - Good info and seems market has got itself short USD and wants to suck in Export USD before paying it up and bailing ... below 1.2280 would help that move up .. Supply and Demand ... GL all

Nottingham 11:58 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL re IMM, GVI John's post below may be useful...gl gt

Riga RIA 11:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Talk us names stops abv 6.05 usdzar break abv cud see a quick move to 6.10/13, also talk good UK fund buying usd ard 5.98/95...GL

Melbourne Qindex 11:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
chicago forex 11:51 GMT - I would imagine that COT Charts can only describe 15% - 20% of the total world forex trading volume (option, future and spot).

GA TJ 11:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
chicago forex 11:51 GMT July 21, 2004

And if memory serves me the Non Reportables are the small specs. They usually get smashed but not always.

GVI john 11:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
A couple of words about currency futures. I have had a lot of experince in those markets.
Most participants in currency futures are speculators. Most commercials are institutions who provide liquidity to the markets by jobbing it. Thus when speculators are buying euro, they tend to be sellers. That is why commercial shorts rise when spec longs increase and vice versa.

As to the precentage of the total forex market, the IMM is very small. I would guess in the single digit percent area. Nevetheless, they are looking at the same charts as everyone else and are an integral part of the larger forex world and completely integrated into it via the institutional players. Their behavior (changes in open interest) are an excellent barameter of overall market sentiment.

chicago forex 11:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
non commercials are speculative investors.. or what some might call dump money... commercial investors are never wrong as to the direction of the market.. maybe because they move the market....

Roumeli anka 11:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD testing the neckline of the inverted SHS @ 1.8400

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=24586&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

Sydney Alimin 11:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia: what's your view about pound here mate? your view is highly appreciated, thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham what do you mean by IMM commitment? tia

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:37 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I was going to put the link up Syd but you beat me to it thanks. ;-)
This is just another angle to look at the picture but if you look at to many angles you might get confused IMHO.

melbourne farmacia 11:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hk ab - Current market setup is positioning for one interesting 22 july....

Kaunas 11:33 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
can anyone explain why comercial and non-comercial COT usually go in different directions?
if comercials are net short then non-comercials are net long.

Nottingham 11:27 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, desktop traders should keep it simple...IMM commitment historically a good guide and tells all you need to know...gl gt

shanghai bc 11:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

CHICAGO FOREX -- What percentage of forex world does that COT represent?..Tia..

Syd 11:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/menu.html

May help

Riga RIA 11:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
usdzar very slowly rise abv 6.00 but exporters selling there cud capp move , expect 6.05.5.95 now,,GBPZAR find good byers ahead 11.00...GL

chicago forex 11:17 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released weekly on Friday afternoon (the reporting requirement varies by commodity). These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Well I guess the cheap ads are coming in early today I am still waiting for the punch line (web link or email address) LOL.

Cape Town 11:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
re 11:11, that was for GBP.

Cape Town 11:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
COT: on 29 Jun commercials reported 3:1 short, by 6 July they had increased to 5:1 short...were they taken to the cleaners?

SA Newbie 11:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
will u plse explain what does cot charts mean, and where can they be accessed? Tia

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:08 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 11:00 GMT July 21, 2004
It all depends what time frames you are looking at eur/usd. I believe it has been in a bullish channel since about two years ago with mid term indicators giving bearish signals at this time that is the way I see it right now. GL GT

Bilbao T&OFx 11:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bearish for Euro
The euro finish the three first waves within a i subminuete wave. Now is making an expanded flat wave .iv.
Look the elliott wave analysis at:

http://www.torosyososfx.com.ar/pdf/psfree.pdf

and markets updates at

http://www.torosyososfx.com.ar/ewimn.htm

Bgd PS 11:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
chicago forex 11:00 GMT July 21, 2004

can you give us link to COT charts, please?

chicago forex 11:04 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
that is alot of bull... no pun intended
charts will tell all ..learn to read them.. and don't listen to anyone...
COT charts will tell you what the institutional investors are doing.. just do what they do...

Tallinn viies 11:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
new resistance for daytraders appeared at 1,2310.
if 15 traded selling pressure eases but really doubt.
we may see 1,2210 today before NYC close

Goes (NL) B747 11:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:57 GMT July 21, 2004

some big guys say that we are in "bear inside bull market" and others "bull inside bear market".

what fits best to your opinion.


tia & gt

chicago forex 11:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
guys you should all use COT charts... play this game the way the big boys do.
its like having a crystal ball.....Aussie run was being bought buy commercial traders weeks before it ran up...

U.K. J.B. 10:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 2:46

Been out for a few hours so i have just seen your post.
My long aud 7269 stopped out at 7233. I am keeping position size down at the moment as i am not sure and don't trust the market. I do expect the dollar to weaken from these levels but intend staying out as i am off until Monday.

Thanks anyway and GL

Gen dk 10:58 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hello I am still struggling with my connection I am only about 45% operational at this time so I will be in and out as this eur/usd short position is taking on the 1.2280-90 support with 2240-50 as the next support. I would like to have seen a better bounce for a healthy shot a taking out the tough support at 2205-15 and the T/L is around the 2230-40 area at this time. Mid term indicators continue to develop as a strong bearish signal is coming in but still well with in the bullish channel IMHO. GL GT

chicago forex 10:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I will post in the future. Commercial traders very short on British pound and swiss franc!!!!!!

Goes (NL) B747 10:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 10:47 GMT July 21, 2004

according to what I realized in FX trading, correction process takes five days (today is the 4th day)...in case the current wave will keep on after next Tiesday than FX traders will pay attention to set (some will change) positions accordingly.

by the way, EUR hit the FX markets during a period of very top IPO prices - if you will look on EUR as a stock it may enlighten you regarding the next two years.

gt

Harry Hindsight 10:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
COT charts, what a brilliant idea, no one else ever thought of that. Where was your post before Cable collapsed 3 big figures.

chicago forex 10:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
speculative investors buying pound... the big dogs are selling it to them...

Genève JZ 10:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, what did it happen today at 11:40/45 AM CET when the GBP and USD moved so quickly? Any special news? Thanks.

Livingston nh 10:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Cable and EUR are trying to hold at 21 da sma -- still think Cable may break 200 da sma before we know whether this USD since january is just a correction or a trend // today's Q&A for G'span will be less friendly from democrats concerned more about wage and fixed income erosion of their constituents than the nuances of "measured" and "transitory" so inflation may get bigger play

chicago forex 10:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
commercial investors are dumping the pound.. you all should use COT charts

Melbourne Qindex 10:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:48 GMT July 21, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-


... // 1.2209* - 1.2249 - 1.2288 - 1.2327 - 1.2366* // ...

Sydney Alimin 10:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
i am actually quite surprised how easily cable went down these last three days after pushing to high of 1.87...must be stops triggering related plus some help from heavy and consistent selling

Melbourne Qindex 10:45 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level (super magnet) of my monthly cycle is positioning at 1.2209.

Bah BAHRAIN1 10:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
closed my short balnce on the EUR$ at 1.2290 +53 pips.
Good luck to u all ....happy trades.

Riga RIA 10:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
good noksek selling today push EURSEK down to 9.1750 from 9.20 n EURNOK rise to 8.4900...expect eursek soft to 9.15/14 tgt but eurnok shud hold range 8.47/52...GL

Sydney Alimin 10:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
1.85 should be a very good resistance now, i'll sell on rally near it and stop somewhere above 1.85....if gdp on friday below expectation well maybe 1.80 will be seen next week

Nottingham 10:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
euro...demand expected 2260/40... cable 8370/60...gl gt

Sydney Alimin 10:36 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
wow, just logged in, cable crashed again? is this the beginning of new bear trend?

Riga RIA 10:33 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Talk cable good selling from US invest thru next stops below 1.8450/30..GL

Gen dk 10:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Riga RIA 10:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
prague, viktor, agreed with u but direction to 30.80 n 30.50 med term ranges...GL

prague viktor 10:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Riga RIA:its seems it will not be easy to break the 31,10for no there is still a lot of interest to buy the euro from this level to the 30,8 but lets hope Im short too G/L

Gen dk 10:28 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Riga RIA 10:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
shud read eurczk , sorry

Riga RIA 10:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
usdczk capp 31.42 ress zone , expect hold 31/31.45 range now , take short at 31.38 for 31.10 tgt..GL

Melbourne Qindex 10:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : next Target is 396.1

Melbourne Qindex 10:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Heading Towards 398.7

Tallinn viies 10:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
correction from 1,2450 may turn to heavy blood letting if we see the euro lower than 1,2200 this week.

now after last week low traded let the blood run on streets.
will add to my shorts near 1,2335. moved stop down to 1,2384. target 1,2210

Melbourne Qindex 10:09 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Makati Obelix 10:06 GMT - It took almost 48 hours to reach that level............. Cheers!

Gothenburg XON 10:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
What a ride, got 63 pips of cable, shorted @ 8493, stopped out @8430 !

Makati Obelix 10:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, your level of Pound at 1.8314 was reach. You were wrong when you say it will take a while. :)

Helsinki iw 10:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you very much, Jay.

Bah BAHRAIN1 10:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Part P/T done @ 15 +28pips on the EUR$..holding balance for 1.2290. GOOOOOOOOOOOD luck to u all
see you later
Tallinn viiess/// I told you that you r the best. :-). GL

Tallinn viies 10:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I can take poision that we see 1,2275 traded :)

Gen dk 09:58 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Jay 09:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Note,
GVI Jay 15:44 GMT May 27, 2004
The Homeland Investment Act LINK

Also,

Senate Passes International Tax Legislation: Includes Homeland Investment Act/Invest in the USA Act Provision
May 12, 2004 (last updated: 8:00 A.M.)
Yesterday, the Senate passed the Jumpstart Our Business Strength Act (S. 1637). The bill is needed because it contains the repeal of the Extra Territorial Income Exclusion (ETI), which World Trade Organization (WTO) previously ruled is a prohibited export subsidy. As a result, the EU began imposing sanctions against selected U.S. exports on March 1, 2004. The tariff currently stands at 7 percent, and will rise 1 percentage point every month for a year.

Importantly, the bill contains the AFP-endorsed Homeland Investment Act/Invest in the USA (HIA/IUSA). The proposal would allow companies to repatriate offshore cash balances at a reduced tax rate. The legislation would temporarily (for one year) reduce the current 35 percent rate and replace it with a 5.25 percent rate on dividends in excess of normal distributions from foreign subsidiaries, and requires that companies develop a domestic reinvestment plan. However, unlike the Breaux amendment (see below), the proposal does not specify how companies could reinvest the repatriated resources.

Last week, during debate on the bill (S 1637) the U.S. Senate defeated an amendment that would have severely restricted U.S. companies’ ability to take advantage of repatriated off shore cash balances. The amendment, offered by Senators Breaux (D-LA) and Feinstein (D-CA) would have required companies to prove that the repatriated cash was used for job creation, research and development, and shoring up pension plans. The amendment was rejected on a bipartisan vote of 68 to 31. Senators Boxer (D-CA), Ensign (R-NV), and Smith (R-OR) led the successful effort to defeat the amendment.

The U.S. House has not yet acted on its version of the legislation, H.R. 2896.

Syd 09:53 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
This market very treacherous looking to long aud but censored knows where

Melbourne Qindex 09:53 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT July 20, 2004
AUD/USD : The market is likely to trade between 0.7239 - // .7285 initially in Asian time. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position.


Daily Cycle Quantized Levels

... 0.7140 - 0.7171 - 0.7202 // 0.7232 - 0.7262 - 0.7292 // 0.7323 ... 0.7353 ...

Helsinki iw 09:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good day all, just back from a sometimes too hot, but always lovely Crete. Saw in passing yesterday a comment about the Homeland Investment Act in the process of being put through. As I can´t find anything on the net about the story, was wondering if anybody can fill me in on the status of this?

Fwiw/ Pretty much in agreement with viies; 1,2480/90 is critical, a break would turn the outlook bullish for 1,29++. But this level should be pretty strong. Very nice sell, viies.

Melbourne Qindex 09:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:27 GMT July 20, 2004
GBP/USD : Pulling Back to 1.8413 - 1.8423.

Melbourne Qindex 09:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:02 GMT July 20, 2004
GBP/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.8413 - 1.8572. The lower barrier is expected at 1.8405 // 1.8442 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.8554 // 1.8591.


Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8331 ... 1.8405 // 1.8442 - 1.8479 - 1.8517 - 1.8554 // 1.8591 - 1.8628 ... 1.8702 ...

lnd 09:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie. you are annoying. most people here are trying to earn a living not talk. if you want to chit chat then go to another forum. just post your trades and if you feel there is something useful that others are not looking at then tell them. but you are making this forum useless today.

kept the $/cad long from yesterday. got my pips back from market. cable looks like a good buy above 1.8475 any break below here means you play this puppy from short side. euro looks like it wants to make an attempt below 1.2300 but will stick to cable for now. gl & gt to all.

nowhere newbie 09:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
THANKS for clarification...ESTONIA joined EU few months ago as I THINK.

Antwerp Tom 09:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Newbie, let's cut the story short: Tallinn is the capital of Estonia GL GT

nowhere newbie 09:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
THEN LET US SPEAK FOREX LANGUAGE and approved it to be the main language in this lovely club

Bgd PS 09:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 09:25 GMT July 21, 2004

We are talking here about some general knowledge and not about English which is not my mother lenguage (as I can see is not yours either).

KL KL 09:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Out of long gbpusd 1.8518 BE. should have taken the 20 pips earlier...market a bit in moody mood...hmmm back to drawing board!!gl gt

nowhere newbie 09:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
gbpd
past????????????or pass learn me

Bgd PS 09:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 09:16 GMT July 21, 2004

Go back to your first grade of elementary school. Past the exam and then come back.

Tallinn viies 09:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 09:16 - yep

nowhere newbie 09:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
TALLIN is it greek language??

Tallinn viies 09:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
hourly stochastic crossing lower...
selling kicks in if previous hour low doesnt hold.

nowhere newbie 08:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
BAH I AGREE with you and the chart looks attractive 1-hour chart plotted bin 5-15 EMA....but am now involve in other positions waiting for closing them...of course successfuly

Roumeli anka 08:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends... spot gold needs more time to reach the lower line of the rising channel, so we may see more downside pression for majors against dollar.
Have a nice day.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=24585&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

Gen dk 08:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 08:40 GMT July 21, 2004
BAH very thanks///
Sure.. :)
I think you might wanna short chf...this a good sell..
cover around 1.23

Syd 08:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
BOE Jul Minutes: MPC Voted 9-0 To Hold Repo Rate At 4.5%

nowhere newbie 08:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
BAH very thanks

Bah BAHRAIN1 08:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Nowhere newbie///Hi...I'm Intraday trader....just looking for 30/40 pips....We need to brk 1.2300 for a move to 1.2270 and then 1.2240/30. Take care and good luck.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 08:30 GMT July 21, 2004
WOW EUR/CAD is working well thanks BAH//
Welcomed..


Bah BAHRAIN1 08:29 GMT July 21, 2004
Bahrain within 10 pips////Hi mate, how r u , hope all fine with you......what's for today. GL//
GBP/chf is a good sell anytime
Should get to 1.26

nowhere newbie 08:30 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
WOW EUR/CAD is working well thanks BAH

Bah BAHRAIN1 08:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain within 10 pips////Hi mate, how r u , hope all fine with you......what's for today. GL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 08:24 GMT July 21, 2004
Bahrain Within 10 Pips//Where do you place the stop?gt

I don't use stops...sorry...if worried use 70 pips offset

Bah1:
I think it wants to go 1.2470 then down to 1.2250...I would wait for the levels

Tallinn viies 08:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bah BAHRAIN1 08:21 -- uuuaaah.

nowhere newbie 08:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
BAH what do u think the next downside for EUR/ESD is it 1.2275?
BTW the long term viw is still positive

hk revdax 08:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips//Where do you place the stop?gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bah BAHRAIN1 08:21 GMT July 21, 2004 //
Amaar...Yalla la

Gen dk 08:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hello again everyone
I think eur/cad is nice buy here

Bah BAHRAIN1 08:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Nowhere newbie 08.09GMT/// Yes think we will see this EUR moving down again.. we have resistance around to 50s anf then strong one at 80s.

Tallinn viies is one of the best guys here on the Forum.

nowhere newbie 08:19 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

Now EUR/GBP is 06662 means +12 pip profits in few minutes not bad for begginer!!! hiii taliin


nowhere newbie 07:59 GMT July 21, 2004
ALL I see today is EUR/GBP
Buy EUR at 0.6650 Stop-loss: 0.6600. Profit target: 0.6815

Vilnius georgas 08:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
nowhere newbie 08:09
Is a capital of NY.

Melbourne Qindex 08:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:30 GMT July 21, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.2255* // 1.2286 - 1.2317 - 1.2348 // 1.2379 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:07 GMT July 21, 2004
EUR/USD : The market will penetrate through 1.2300 and the supporting strength of 1.2286 is going to be challenged

nowhere newbie 08:09 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
bah do u mean that EUR WILL FALL FURTHER..?
BTW WHO IS TALLIN?

Bah BAHRAIN1 08:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
short part EUR$ @ 1.2343 Joining Tallinn viies same boat.
Good luck to u all.

nowhere newbie 07:59 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ALL I see today is EUR/GBP
Buy EUR at 0.6650 Stop-loss: 0.6600. Profit target: 0.6815.
.............................................


Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 07:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
21.07.2004 (02.45)


USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 108.63) - STILL USD HAS SUPPORT AT 108.00 REGION. RESISTANCE 108.70/80 I 109.50. ONLY BREAK 110.20 WILL BE STRONG BUY SIGNAL WITH POSIBILITY TO TEST 112.00 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT BEARS STILL HAVE AN ADVENTAGE AND WE HAVE CHANCE TO TEST 106.00 REGION.

EUR/USD(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2322) - YESTERDAY`S GREENSPAN SPEAKS FORTIFY USD BY 100 PIPS. EUR FIND SUPPORT AT 1.2300. TODAY COURSE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1.2300 - 1.2400.

USD/CHF(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2434) - YESTERDAY`S BREAK ABOVE 1.2415 CHANGE IMAGE ON USD/CHF. IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.2500 REGION. SUPPORT 1.2350/60.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8528) - BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1.8600 WEAKEN GBP BY 100 PIPS. AFTER GREENSPAN SPEAKS WE SAW TEST ANOTHER SUPPORT AT 1.8480/90 REGION. NOW WE SHOULD SEE BACK TO 1.8600 REGION WHERE FIND NEW SELLERS.

nowhere newbie 07:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ALL I see today is EUR/GBP
Buy EUR at 0.6650 Stop-loss: 0.6600. Profit target: 0.6815.
.............................................


KL KL 07:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Apologies meant 1.8518 sl 1.85 looking for 1.857 gl gt

KL KL 07:39 GMT July 21, 2004
Long gbpusd at 1.8618 sl at 1.86...looking for 1.8670. Lets see what happens. Don't like this messy market...hit & run today.

Bah BAHRAIN1 07:44 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
test

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 07:42 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
21.07.2004 (02.45)


USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 108.63) - STILL USD HAS SUPPORT AT 108.00 REGION. RESISTANCE 108.70/80 I 109.50. ONLY BREAK 110.20 WILL BE STRONG BUY SIGNAL WITH POSIBILITY TO TEST 112.00 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT BEARS STILL HAVE AN ADVENTAGE AND WE HAVE CHANCE TO TEST 106.00 REGION.

EUR/USD(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2322) - YESTERDAY`S GREENSPAN SPEAKS FORTIFY USD BY 100 PIPS. EUR FIND SUPPORT AT 1.2300. TODAY COURSE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1.2300 - 1.2400.

USD/CHF(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2434) - YESTERDAY`S BREAK ABOVE 1.2415 CHANGE IMAGE ON USD/CHF. IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.2500 REGION. SUPPORT 1.2350/60.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8528) - BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1.8600 WEAKEN GBP BY 100 PIPS. AFTER GREENSPAN SPEAKS WE SAW TEST ANOTHER SUPPORT AT 1.8480/90 REGION. NOW WE SHOULD SEE BACK TO 1.8600 REGION WHERE FIND NEW SELLERS.

KL KL 07:39 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Long gbpusd at 1.8618 sl at 1.86...looking for 1.8670. Lets see what happens. Don't like this messy market...hit & run today.

MONACO OGA 07:34 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 21/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2330), 110 pips lower than yesterday opening. EUR/USD was rejected again at 1,2455 despite some good ZEW index sentiment and lower than expected US housing starts and building permits. The pair was sold to 1,2370 and kept on to 1,2300 in the US session. As noted a few days before, the market was long EUR and rather thin market conditions made it difficult for traders to cover their short positions ahead of Mr GREENSPAN's bullish statement in front of the congress (the US economic growth is solid and inflation is not a threat, rates are to increase gradually). Overnight the pair tested 1,23 again (low 1,2303) before retracing to current levels. All in all, the US currency regained some strenght but remains rather weak. This morning we feel the market could retest 1,2380 while 1,2300 remains supportive. On the medium term, we would still like to see 1,2225-50 printed. Our range trading view is still valid for the time being, with a 1,1950-1,2525 range.

Data out today:

UK BOE minutes 08.30 GMT
US Mr GREENSPAN to report on monetary policy 14.00 GMT

Gold at 401,00, with WTI August at 40,84

***JPY***
USD/JPY (108,60). The pair rebounded again from 108,10, printing 108,80 on Mr GREENSPAN's comments. Nothing has changed from yesterday, the market is looking long JPY, so any uptick to 109,50 could trigger some stop loss orders. For the time being, we stick to our medium term strategy with the pair hovering inside 107-112.
EUR/JPY currently 133,90, still in a consolidative pattern inside 133,50-135,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8530), lost 140 pips from yesterday's 1,8670 opening level. 1,86 support cracked ahead of the US session and then moved towards 1,8500 supportive zone (low 1,8495). We are back into our previous 1,82-1,86 range, and monday's spike to 1,8760 might have been a false upside break and an intermediate high. 1,86 should act as a resistance again now, while 1,8500 should provide some support ahead of the BOE minutes later today.
EUR/GBP (0,6655). We still stick to our neutral stance for the time being as long as 0,6630-0,6730 range is not broken.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Bah BAHRAIN1 07:17 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies07.11GMT//// Many thanks mate, I'll be a seller near 50 and moreat 80 if seen.
GOOD luck to you.

Moskow 07:15 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Wanna test your trading system on a reliable history data ?
Welcome ...
Intarday forex history collected for seven years.
No gaps, no spikes ... Free updates.

Tallinn viies 07:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bah BAHRAIN1 07:07 - 35/40 has been resistance so far. I cant rule out move up to 1,2380 but I would rather be short from lower levels than missing the move down to 1,2270 first and then 1,2210.
planning to sell near 1,2370/80 more and stop and reverse at 1,2419/24 area. fwiw
gl

Bah BAHRAIN1 07:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn Viies/// Hi pal, you don't think there is chance to see 1.2350 b4 moving down ? GL

Tallinn viies 07:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sold euro at 1,2329 fwiw
target 1,2210

GER ad 06:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 05:57,
"consolidation between 1.3060 & 1.3190" -Re al ti me Fo rex-
(1.3090-1.3185 IMHO)

Bah BAHRAIN1 06:13 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds good day to u all, hope all fine with you....

P/T on the EURGBP short yesterday at 6684 was done at 6668. +16 pips (Re my post at 08.42GMT)

P/T on the GBPCAD long at 2.4315 was done at 2.4370. +55 Pips. (Re my post at 10.36GMT).

Good luck to you all and happy trades.

GER ad 06:12 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY,
out at 133.94 (-15 pips)

hk revdax 05:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone apply his quantitative model to forecaste today's possible range of $/CAD? TIA

Goes (NL) B747 05:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,

what I can do against dealers (market makers) that insist on openning new positions (opposite) in place of closing.
Always hapenning in forward outright deals....looks to me that it goes about making double pips on our back.


gt

Ldn Viewer 05:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 05:00 - True words but Art of Trading = Timing ...

Now market seems to be marking time ... Summer Months and traders away on Holidays .. Juniors not taking positions , just clearing customer stuff ... Think will be a busy late August till end of year ... of course 2 other factors

1) Event Risk and 2) US Elections .. could sway the USD into bearish mode again ..

GL all

Sydney Alimin 05:13 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
are we gonna see gbp 1.86 handle again soon? to me, if gbp down to 1.84 handle should attract buyers again but then it could easily slide down big time as well

Tallinn viies 05:12 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
lets sell the euro today again :)
resist first at 1,2335/40. thne big one at 1,2385.
target 1,2200/10. stop over 1,2415/20

Gold Coast martin 05:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Whether you view is 110 or 130 on the euro the ultimate trading goals are :if you are in profit dont get greedyANd IF YOU ARE IN A LOSING POSITION make capital preservation your first goal....g/t to all...

Syd 05:07 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Personally feel Shanghai BC has been the most constant over time so will follow his lead on the USD .

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 05:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 04:55 GMT July 21, 2004
Agreed.I personally am looking for higher euro/usd.

everyone's gone...not many posts floating currently?

TIA:-)

sarasota jf 05:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 04:55 GMT July 21, 2004
if everyone agreed on the factors and outlook life wud be boring and one move and it wud be over until the next change - up down doesnt matter as long as it moves - knocking yrself out on this sort of thinking takes away from the art of trading

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 04:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
I was wondering where one can access the latest BUY or SELL orders being made by big players.

Any place at all ??

TIA:-)

Ldn Viewer 04:55 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Guys all your posts very interesting but to me it shows the market is now crossroads where to go :

Twin Deficits = weaker USD

Higher Interest Rates = Stronger USD

At risk is Yeild plays and leverage , as well as possible Homeland Investments Act = USD Buying ...

Market is oneway at Mo short USD ... all leading to confusion
Conclusion = wild swings , no direction for a while to come

AIMVHO

As you can see I am confused personally and now dont know which way the USD will go ..
I hope for my book we see 110.00 but then who knows now

NY,NY GFX_PWS 04:46 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Warrnen Buffet is short the USD mainly bc of the twin deficits..there is no doubt that it is a looming issue, and may worsen with the retirement looming of the baby boomer generation here. As for the short term..I agree with the previous post..he is obligated to express a concern, and mention it..but inflationary data will take presidence in USD stregnth or weakness in a interest rate rising environment. If this data continues to show stregnth as anticipated by the fed..the PCE data in particular..we will continue to raise rates at the "measured pace"

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 04:45 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
A food for thought:
From the MOVE from high of 1.29X to low of 1.178X areas,the retracement back from 1.178X areas hasn't yet even been 50%,so a bullish bias may still be proper.

any comments anyone appreciate. what say Ath [HEN] s?

TIA:-)

Syd 04:26 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan..The shift between foreign public and private purchases of U.S. debt isn't a significant factor for the U.S. So far, there's been very little difficulty in financing deficit, but the long-term, problem is significant, Greenspan said. He said he didn't know at what point in time it would manifest itself

Gold Coast martin 04:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
syd..like i said....he has to address the problem which in the long term will not have an impact on the usd....

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 04:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Who wants to buy EUR/USD currently?
GL GT ALL
TIA:-)

Syd 04:17 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin Watching and listening to Greenspan on Bloomberg, his concern was I would say a little more than of previous and not a matter of if but when the Deficit worsens .

Gold Coast martin 04:10 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
SYD..FWIW...i wouldnt read too much into that...all bank governors by protocol have to show concern officially when country runs a deficit ...deep down greenspan knows that with rates returning to neutral capital flows will increase as well ..so c/a is at the moment like a large overdraft that is required by a very good growing business to expand..with the right credit control and management that overdraft is eventually brought under control......

Syd 03:58 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc thanks,
noticed Greenspan concerned that at some point the Deficit would become a big problem

Porto PJT 03:53 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, bc, good trades.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
chf going short now cover at 1.2290

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 03:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GM

NYC YIPPEE 03:32 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
bc You tell 'em...



Makes a whole lot of sense to me!

Good trades to you.

shanghai bc 03:23 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

Correction..It should be "Targeting 1.22".

shanghai bc 03:22 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

SYD -- Good morning..It was about selling Usd/Chf in 1.2450-1.2550 selling 1.22..I am still buying Aud on dips and to me,since mid May,USD is slowly falling rather than rising..No sign of reversing that trend yet..Good trades.

hk revdax 03:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
FWIIW...the sentiments from the c9s in Macaus do not support that contention that the $ rally from yesterday could be sustained, though it might still produce some pips for the sophisticated raiders.

Syd 03:17 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc good day to you , do you see a lower aud short term with the Euro I notice your calling for 1.22 S/T thanks

shanghai bc 03:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

PJT 01:48 -- Good morning..Usd/Chf is being supported by Chf crosese in recent days around Feb lows..But Dolar is still well within down trend since midddle of May..For short-term,I would be a seller in 1.2450-1.2550 targeting 1.22 level again..For medium-term,I guess Dollar may fall some more against Euro zone currencies..Good trades..

hk revdax 03:13 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 02:16 GMT//The Macau c9 indicator is incapable of price magnitude forecast. I would tighten up my stops if i still had some long $ posi.

nyc jk 02:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
thanks Martin. agreed, will stop out around that level if seen. gl

Sydney Alimin 02:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
looks like euro is ready to go down to 1.22 level

Gold Coast martin 02:52 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
NYC JK...Should the 7250 level hold then your 7257 long is propably good for a week ..should it get penetrated today i suggest a 7225 stop is advisable as after 7225 the next level of 7185 will get breached very quickly...g/t

sgp sp 02:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Dr Q....hope you have a nice week. :)

nyc jk 02:46 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
J.B. - fwiw , my old employer reporting some bids in this 7240/50 area for AUD...just reestablished a long position at .7257. gl to both of us!

Melbourne Qindex 02:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:35 GMT - EUR/USD : The odds are high that we have seen the monthly high. There is a change in the market rhythm of my weekly cycle from 62 pips to 102 pips.


Melbourne Qindex 09:46 GMT July 17, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : ........... The market rhythm is represented by 102 pips (k=0.010217)............... (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.2589 ).

shanghai bc 02:39 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

AB -- HK is still the best place to play China trade card..If they remove the money,where is a better place to put their money..China is still the best place for smart long-term money,so is HK..

sgp sp 02:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Good Morming Dr Q,

May I ask abt eur/usd. Is there substantial changes in your weekly levels this week compared to last week?

Thanks, GL & GT 2 U.

Melbourne Qindex 02:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT July 20, 2004
AUD/USD : The market is likely to trade between 0.7239 - // .7285 initially in Asian time. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position.


Daily Cycle Quantized Levels

... 0.7140 - 0.7171 - 0.7202 // 0.7232 - 0.7262 - 0.7292 // 0.7323 ... 0.7353 ...

Syd 02:28 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
rumour of Large Asian Sovereign North Asia Based has big order to sell USD against the yen 108.80 also Euro sold by South East Asian Sovereign 123.20

melbourne farmacia 02:25 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
QC WC - 1.8465/80.. watch RSI @ zone.

Ldn 02:20 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
CHART: USD Index Says Dollar Bounce Only S/T

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:18 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
martin// thanks mate.

QC WC 02:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
RFevdax, nice call on Usd/Chf, what's your target or till when will you stay long?

Gold Coast martin 02:14 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
CARRIBEAB RAFE...FWIW...rumour of boj intervention at 10750 level plus waiting for outcome of anticipated stability of crude price this week is making both buyers and sellers adopt a sit and wait attitude....hence thin liquidity in the yen..g/t

houston st 02:13 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:01 GMT -- thank you for the input...as they say, "to each his own"...I use what I'm comfortable with, although I know several who use the same setup as you...my setup is pretty basic and I try not to clutter my charts up with excessive indicators...the 50/200d ma setup is on my longer-term charts and as such I don't expect an immediate trade, however I will keep my good eye on this pair over the next couple of days...fyi the rain has let up but we still get a thunderstorm out of nowhere every few days...hope your weather, and trading, is sunny and bright.

QC WC 02:11 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, what is your vodoo zone for GBP? TIA

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
what the F is wrong with yen! buysre and sellers can;t make up their minds it seems. anyone have any inside info on this pair??

TIA.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ST FWIW I look for the crossing of the 55dma and the 250dma on the daily that to me is very important crossing but the last time they crossed was back in 5-2002 when it was around .9212 as a bullish signal and it has not looked back since then. Right now I have the 55dma at 1.2155 and the 250dma at 1.2010 as all charts are not created equal but clearly in a bullish trend since then never in a bearish trend for long time players IMHO. GT

U.K. J.B. 02:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Bought Aud $ 0.7269 s/l 72.35 offered gl

melbourne farmacia 02:00 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sfx - thanks

houston st 01:57 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sfx -- you're most welcome...I use the same and currently show the following;

50 sma = 1.218144
200 sma = 1.218928

gl/gt

Singapore Sfx 01:54 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
st - thank you ... i use simple ma's. and as of now , get
50 - 1.2178
200 - 1.2191
fwiw

Singapore Sfx 01:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia - hi mate ... 1.2302 overnite low ebs eurusd

Ny session eurusd
1.2380open -1.2388-1.2352-1.2388-1.2302-1.2337-1.2330 cl

houston st 01:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:42 GMT--good evening to you...what I don't know about ta and candlesticks would fill several volumes...my analysis of charts is quite primitive and very basic...I am learning each day from the school of hard knocks and the wisdom of others...I will keep an eye on these two ma's to see what happens...good trades to you this week.

melbourne farmacia 01:47 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx - Can i have interbank overnight low for euro.. cheers

syd 01:45 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR bounces to 1.2330 on buying by U.S. model fund and by holders of knockout options with 1.2300 strikes Tokyo dealer; some players attempt to trigger rumored sell-stop orders between 1.2270 and 1.2300

Porto PJT 01:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
BC, good morning, any idea where usd/chf is heading?looking to start builting a short position on it for m/t trade.thank you and good trades.

houston st 01:43 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Sfx 01:35 -- my TA guru taught me that when a 50-day ma crosses above a 200-day ma that is a "Golden Cross" and is a major buy signal. The reverse is called a "Dead Cross" and is a sell signal. When the 50-day crosses above it's a signal to go long, fwiw...not being Japaness I'll have to take his word for it...good trades.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:42 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
ST the closes I see is an evening star on the daily chart of the eur/usd pair but I am not that good on candle chart interpretations either. Hope you are doing well this week (with less rain). ;-) GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 01:41 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 01:31 GMT - You are welcome.

Singapore Sfx 01:35 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
st 01:30 - whats the "golden cross" pls ? tia

hk revdax 01:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:26//So the pivotal point of $/CAD has been penetrated. What next?

Dublin CK 01:31 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dr Q, as always, the analysis is appreciated.

houston st 01:30 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone else seeing the "Golden Cross" on eur/usd daily chart? tia & gt/gl.

hk ab lazy 01:24 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
bc// good morning... Just a novice observation compared with your valuable forecast.

btw, I heard from my bank teller that there's a rumour of foreign funds retreating hk market yesterday. What do you think bc?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
if the market does SHORT today then this is the anticipated range for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD SHORT TPL 1 TPL 2 TPL 3
ENTRY 1.2298 1.2213 1.2184 1.2166
STOP 1.2368 1.2386 1.2403


If you don't like such a wide stop for today then

you can also subtract the first stop level from the entry price divide by 2 and place your stop there.

1.2298-1.2368= n= n/2= n2

n2+1.2298=

stop can be placed at 1.2333

shanghai bc 01:16 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..Watchdog barking 6 months before the theft ? ..That is some kind of a watchdog..Good trades.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:09 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
cloudy// i don't run a website, post here daily though. i don't have a view to open any possies now, but it is helpful to know that euro is ranging towards the sellers side for now but this could change.

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market will penetrate through 1.2300 and the supporting strength of 1.2286 is going to be challenged.

Singapore Sfx 01:02 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Nice call yday Revdax

hk ab lazy 01:01 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
The two watchdogs, aud/nzd and eur/chf has long served as a guide of USD strength for me...

These two pairs often take a lead of 6 months to 1 year to infer USD weakness or strength....

At present, I think a USD strength is spelled only if aud/nzd breaks previous high at 1.18 and eur/chf 1.59.....

GL and GT to all, summer vacation is waiting for me.

Melbourne Qindex 00:56 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:27 GMT July 20, 2004
GBP/USD : Pulling Back to 1.8413 - 1.8423.

Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is still in favour of a short position when it is under 1.8537.

nyc jk 00:50 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
gotcha Rafe, well just give us 1 winner a day and all will be good :) gl

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 00:49 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
aAnyone buying eur/usd around these levels now,what SL?
TIA:-)

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 00:48 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
aAnyone buying eur/usd around these levels now,what SL?
TIA:-)

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It is moving in the right direction.


Melbourne Qindex 12:34 GMT July 19, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-

Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels


... // 199.13* - 200.5 - 201.57* - 202.79 - 204.01* // ..

Melbourne Qindex 00:45 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It is moving the right direction.


Melbourne Qindex 12:34 GMT July 19, 2004
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle are as follow :-

Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels


... // 199.13* - 200.5 - 201.57* - 202.79 - 204.01* // ...

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:40 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
jk// winning trades.

stop placement varies day by day no fixed figure as my model can adjust to the daily variations....

nyc jk 00:36 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
rafe when you say increase the number, you mean the number of pips for s/l?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
jk// i'll increase the number for other pairs also. i also can now repeat the calls consistently provided the market does not run flat =)

syd 00:29 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Looking like Aud poss sell any views

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:27 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Far from a buy signal on my system but intraday indicators are in O/S territory and a hint that 1.2300 might be a good support until the intraday indicators unwind. If 1.2300 holds then I have retracement numbers at 1.2360-65, 2380-85 and 2400-05 with resistance at 1.2330-40, 2370-80, 2390-2400 and 2410-20 at this time IMHO. GL GT

nyc jk 00:21 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
rafe nice trade on that GBP last night.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:12 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
okay looks like i was wrong about the yen upside pivot.


i'm almost ready to get a sell signal on this pair.

just waiting for confirmation.

Porto PJT 00:12 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
Long eur/jpy at 57, stop 25 pips, hope to see some support around the 41 level.

st. pete islander 00:03 GMT July 21, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel ..... You have mail!

 




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