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Forex Forum Archive for 07/29/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:43 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dublin CK 23:14 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Glenn,

Sorry for the delay.

Sure I would love to, I am on holidays in Spain until 26th of August. Ill be back that morning. If you are around that week.

Ill get your email of Jay and get in contact soon. Night Folks.

athens 23:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanx to all

Bah Bahrain1 23:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Athens/// EUR1700= GBP 1125.91 .

Goes (NL) B747 23:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=37548


gt

syd 23:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
It must be The Lord of The Rings of The Rings

New Zealand's residential building boom continued in June, with the highest number of new building consents issued in 30 yearsStatistics New Zealand said the seasonally adjusted number of residential building consents issued in June was up 32.4% from May, and up 39.9% from June 2003. In real terms, consents were issued for 3,447 new dwellings in June 2004, the highest number since May 1974, Statistics New Zealand said. There were 2,544 dwelling consents issued in May Interest-rate hikes so far this year appear to have had little effect in cooling New Zealand's housing market. On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand made its fourth 25-basis-point rate hike to take the Official Cash Rate to 6%.

wisconsin tim 22:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
athens:

http://www.xe.com/ucc/

houston st 22:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
for those of you playing the sterling/yen, Noody pointed out a seasonal play in that pair for the end of July/first part of August....check out the monthly charts for the past several years...good trades.

athens 22:57 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Some body can tell me please how much is 1700 euro in English pounds?
Thanx

Livingston nh 22:45 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Raven are you around - better late than never - just back from City of Brotherly Love -- so now I'm around

Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Traget on GBP/JPY long could go as high at 204.40, more likely 204.10

clonakilty glenn 22:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

CK - I'll be in Dublin mid-august....would be nice to do lunch or something

Brooklyn mhi 22:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:17 GMT July 29, 2004
wher is your target on gbp/jpy i am thinking of shorting @ 70-90 with stop @ 204.3

Syd 22:32 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Australia June building approvals scheduled for 0130 GMT. Consensus -2.0% on month.

Dublin CK 22:30 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
clonakilty glenn 22:11 GMT July 29, 2004

Cheers, ill buy u a Murphys for real one day.

Dallas GEP 22:17 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Possie presently working:
USD/JPY short from 112.34 target is 111.40
EUR/CHF short from 1.5420 target is 1.5380
USD/CHF short from 1.2805 target is 1.2730

Looking at:

Longing usd/cad from 1.3200
longing Euro from 1.1995 tight stop
longing gbp/jpy from 203.10

clonakilty glenn 22:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

CK sorry for late reply - of course...no problem

houston st 21:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam 21:16 GMT -- hey, what's my Grandma's picture doing on foreign currency (I'll let you figure out which one)...gl/gt.

Dublin CK 21:50 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Glenn, if you dont mind, can I get your email off Jay. I wouldnt mind asking for some frank advice about employment prospects in Ireland for trading. Especially if you have heard of any funds being set up or running, which have specialised in forex. TIA

saratoga sam 21:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
You guys are to funny!! Thanks for the feedback.

Dublin CK 21:33 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Sam, party? Ill bring the nacho's.

clonakilty glenn 21:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
party at sam's house !

Riga Jim 21:27 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam 21:16 GMT // It says 'Kyrgyz Bank'. 105 units of Kyrgyz currency are worth around two US cents. It must be a very tiny can of beer to be bought by this...
Here is a link about the currency:
http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/kyrgyzstan/hypermail/200009/0026.html

clonakilty glenn 21:25 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi Sam

The 2nd one is certainly Kyrgystani - maybe they both are....hope that helps

saratoga sam 21:16 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys I need some help in identifying what country these two currency notes
are from and if so what is there worth in USA dollars. Can I purchase a can of Guinness with them? Thanks :)
Currency
.

syd 21:09 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
The dollar's recent good fortune has been a stunning story of a market trading against itself. In just under two weeks, the currency has blasted higher versus other major rivals, driven by a massive rejiggering of what had been a record number of dollar-bearish positions. It's left the dollar broadly stronger, with the euro having lost about 3.5% since Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony on Capitol Hill last week, in which he affirmed that economic weakness seen in June was temporary. Ironically, the rally had little to do with true market sentiment. Throughout the dollar's surge, most major banks and advisors remained solidly bearish on longer-term prospects for the dollar. A survey of 16 major banks by Dow Jones Newswires earlier this week, for example, found only three expect the dollar to appreciate against the euro, and only one against the yen, over the next six months. With those kinds of views, investors and strategists are sanguine in their sense that the rally was a "correction" or a "repositioning" rather than a change of heart about the dollar. In market terms, that constitutes a "short-squeeze," a term for what happens when the market goes against the collective wisdom, and trading bets, of investors. In essence, the rally that's propelled it thus far is the fallout of a dollar-bearish trade that tipped too much to one side, and violently snapped back. That notion is backed up by data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission that showed short dollar positions, or bets that the dollar will fall versus other currencies, were at all-time highs just two weeks ago.
Betting that the dollar would slip due to structural problems, such as the nation's current account deficit and signs of a cyclical pause in the U.S. economic recovery in June, currency investors thought they had a can't-lose bet against the dollar. More recently, the dollar's rally has started to fizzle, and shell-shocked traders say they are wary of taking on risk after being burned by the market's switch from "can't lose" to "can't win." On both Wednesday and Thursday, for example, the euro found fierce support when it twice crossed the significant $1.2000 level, its six-week low. One trader called the dollar "toppy" and said it's likely to get knocked around listlessly until next week, when July data on key areas such as manufacturing and payrolls are released. The big blow to the anti-dollar sentiment that's propelled the currency thus far didn't come in any shocking revelation. Instead it was rooted in the Greenspan testimony. For markets, that was enough to cause at least a trickle of dollar bears to rethink the risk of their short-term strategy. And with market positioning against the dollar at such an extreme, the trickle quickly turned into a flood. The central theme, then, for the dollar's rally hasn't been bullishness for the greenback, but rather desperation to bail out of trades that were failing.
"This undoubtedly forced the hand of the many who were betting on a weaker dollar," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York. "Everybody was on the same side of the boat, leveraged up against the dollar, and when Greenspan popped the bubble, people started getting squeezed out." That's even though Greenspan's testimony essentially stated the obvious: the Fed, which started hiking benchmark interest rates on June 30 with a quarter-point increase, isn't going to suddenly abandon the rate-hiking cause. So obvious, in fact that most analysts note there's been no major shift in monetary policy expectations to help explain the dollar's resurgence. In general, interest rates can often play a big role in currencies' relative strengths, since investors instinctively gravitate toward higher rates of return. But since this rally was solely a game of dollar positioning, there has been little selectivity on the part of investors in choosing which currencies to sell against the dollar. For example, some of the worst performers against the dollar over the past week are currencies of countries with some of the lowest interest rates, such as the yen and Swiss franc, as well as high-yielders like the Australian dollar and South African rand. The rand is the weakest currency of the past week, having lost 3.6% against the dollar, followed by a 2.6% loss in the Australian dollar. Likewise, the Swiss franc has fallen 2.2% and the yen 2.1%. "This is a broad-based dollar move," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank USA in New York. "It's being fueled by position squaring by the speculative community." However, he sees the yen's selloff as driven more by flows from portfolio managers than short-term investors, as reflected by the sale of about Y556 billion worth of Japanese bonds and equities by foreign investors in the week ended July 23, according to data released Thursday by Japan's Ministry of Finance. While bets against the dollar by speculators reached new extremes for European currencies, including a record long position in the euro against the dollar, yen positioning has remained only modestly long
Reuters/Blm

Gondomar fxbasilio 21:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry to be so long. i wrote in portuguese in my site then i translate to here in english using babel fish.
thanks

Gondomar fxbasilio 21:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
- EUR/USD - they do not remain you doubt. Cross goes to break the 1.2000. I place as targets the 1,1680 and if to break.... the 1.1400. It will be that the Bin Laden studied AT and uses to advantage to launch the panic in the Europe? (thus the analysts technician if cannot complain of it) - USD/JPY - one cross to go up. It comes the 113,20 there, later the 115,80....parece a little impossivel....mas we will be there for October in the house of 119.xx? (curious it is the Aroon pointer not to be to the side of this forecast.... ) - GBP/USD - cross that together in carrocel of the descending with eur/usd. We have to reach the 1,7550 as first support, that to be broken will go it to shoot for the 1.7160. Ask I... I go to have gbp/usd in the house of 1.65xx? - USD/CHF - eur/usd to go down and as he is obvious we go to have usd/chf to go up. What question always is the values. Then: I see as 1ļ attack point the 1,3200 and breaking (as I wait) we will go to the 1.3520. He will be possivel with the value of 1.2800 in ends of July, to reach the 1,4000 for October there? Later I say! - EUR/CHF - this cross already is not so clearly as the others therefore already the half one of an ascent meets. It will be able to reach the 1,5580 and with some probability the 1.5700. The 1,5920 are that more it will be complicated. - USD/CAD - of fact I have the signal that the Canadian dollar must fall for the next months. That I do not have contact with Canadian prime minister but yes I say in the certainty to be to make the reading more correcta possivel of pointers technician. Next value to reach will be the 1.3880. It will be able to break the barrier (still distant) of the 1,40 and to reach the 1.4130. The value of 1.4550 will be a value that I consider as maximum of the maximums (I do not believe that there chegue)(mais a time aroon pointer does not support this my analysis) - AUD/USD - of fact who to fight against dolar in the next times must exactly lose. Plus a case he will be aud/usd. I see as values to reach in first place the 0,6820 and later the 0.6600. Values below of the 0,6240 I do not obtain to glimpse. The series of three values that I give in all crosses as he is obvious third are same the situation have limited, or either, to less probable to happen. It was a tremendously simplista analysis and with awful aspect. Somebody wants to comment? As the Jo„o says Young chicken... prognostics alone after the game. In these prognostics I will go to be cilindrado 7-0? If it will be patience, but I made the reading of the graphs... to my way. They also make yours.

fxmoney.net

Bah Bahrain1 20:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
test

clonakilty glenn 20:50 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks CK - from the lovely clear skies at the moment in county cork - I'm also off to spain next week so enjoy!

Dublin CK 20:35 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Glenn,

Sorry for the delay on the Murphys, I was letting it settle. Hope things are well with you. Im getting soaked in Dublin at the moment in this Monsoon summer weather. Roll on Scorching Spain late next week.

Tim, thanks for the songs, they have been fwd onto worthy recipients.

Bah Bahrain1 20:10 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
test

GER ad 19:51 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Ahmed Ghailani was indicted in the Southern District of New York, on December 16, 1998, for his alleged involvement in the August 7, 1998, bombings of the United States Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya.

Indicted for: murder of U.S. nationals outside the United States; conspiracy to murder U.S. nationals outside the United States; attack on a Federal Facility resulting in death.
---
rewardsforjustice.net

Chicago Irish 19:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
That was the guy wanted for the embassy bombings in Africa

Ldn 19:35 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Pakistan Interior Min: Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani Arrested

perrie como 19:32 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
seems couple of weeks more of dollar strenght to me here
maybe 3, but It could well also be some 10 weeks more of beer, b4 the picture clears up

nite

wisconsin tim 19:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
long 1 more usd/jpy and lowering stops to +30 on EUR/USD shorts and with that I'm gonna go play some volleyball and drink some beer.

Beer

The Beer Song

clonakilty glenn 19:27 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

Murphy's mate - cheers!

Dublin CK 19:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Ill drink to that Homer, My rounds next. What does everyone want?

Homer Simpson 19:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

Me on

beer
..........

Jkt Sen 19:07 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Yeah........Beer is the best!

wisconsin tim 18:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hmmm .... beeer

UAE Oil man 18:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
If you had bought $1,000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.
With Enron, you would have $16.50 of the original $1,000.00. With Worldcom, you would have less than $5.00 left.

If you had bought $1,000.00 worth of Budweiser (the beer, not the stock) one year ago, drunk all the beer then turned in the cans for the 10-cent deposit, you would have $214.00.


Moral of the story drinking is good for your capital health.

RIGA RIA 18:04 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
very possible , viktor.....But now need capp 31.80/82...GL

prague viktor 18:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Ria,thx but it must go down,i still see the 31,45-50 is a good tgt but its better to waitG/L

RIGA RIA 17:45 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
HI Viktor, think if we cud break 31.80/82 we can see 32.00 very qucik , a mom hope we cud hold 31.80/60..Heard very hard usdczk buying from London during this week....GL

prague viktor 17:43 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
RIGA RIA 17:38 GMT July 29, 2004:hi,how do u see the czk

RIGA RIA 17:38 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EURPLN sharply drop from 2.39 to 2.3650 after geman selling thru stops 2.38/37-- next tgt cud be ard 2.3440/50..GL

hong kong nt 17:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF -- 1.284 maybe the high for Jul/Aug..

Brazil, JH 17:12 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin, That's why I'm buying the beer, stamps can add up fast. :-)

Gold Coast martin 17:09 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
BRAZIL..JH..better give him some currency advice as well...tell him to stop stamp collecting otherwise the only holidays he will have is in his back yard looking at his stamp book...lol....g/t

Brazil, JH 17:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Brazil Zorro, any chance you will be passing threw Salvador Brazil :-) I'll buy the beer

wisconsin tim 16:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
closing USD/YEN longs for a small profit will by more on push above 112.18


Closing 1/2 EUR/USD shorts lowering to BE on remaining


out for golf ... gt's all

Roumeli anka 16:17 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD... trying a iii-wave down, stop above a-wave.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=24970&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

melbourne farmacia 16:10 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 15:47 GMT July 29, 2004
I would say yes for todays low... week.. need thurs closing level first.... finished selling for now & holding contra only.. not buying again until i see the friday's picture.
DJIA info - nothing until August.. do the email thing with jay.... Goodnite.

BRAZIL ZORRO 16:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Spot....I'm travelling around....went Rio last week...Lovely country....!!!!

Gold Coast martin...Hi friend...!!!!...I Like to buy cheap stamps...

Good luck all....

Va Raven 15:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Is Livingston around?

Spotforex NY 15:54 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Zorro!!!!!

The new month is 2 trading days away!!!

Sounds like you are soaking up the sun in Rio.
Enjoy!!!!!!

Gold Coast martin 15:52 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ZORRO.....Taking a break from stamp collecting is good for the soul not to mention the pocket......g/l

BRAZIL ZORRO 15:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 12:40 GMT July 28....

...sorry for late reply....I'm enjoying holidays...

...Next month is good to Long EUROS again...!!!

Good trades

KL KL 15:47 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia , Do you think 1.8080 is the low for today and this week? R U buying on dips on the gbpusd pairs or a seller?? Also any news on turn date for DOW S&P ASX etc....do you post them here or e-mail them...would appreiate those news too TIA

GVI john 15:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GVI Pro --
Biweekly Forex Survey results

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THANKS TO ALL PARTICIPANTS!

wisconsin tim 15:21 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
buying USD/YEN 111.88 again TP 112.18

will add to EUR/USD shorts if 1.2120-1.2130 area contains up move otherwise will probably exit above there

houston st 15:12 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
BC -- I hope so too...I'm quite sure when one returns you'll be on top of it...watching and waiting for $bears to return to the scene...have a good night.

wisconsin tim 15:09 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw ... eur.usd sell 1.2087 stops above 1.2160

USA Biscuit Boy 15:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw dollar index 50 day ma is coming in around 89 now and dollar must maintain above this to keep moving upward.....a move below and the odds will move in favor of dollar bears yet again. Later guys and gl.

Gold Coast martin 15:03 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
PORTO.. wishful thinking but good luck with your position....what our pocket desires the market does not always respond to....

melbourne farmacia 15:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Andras - nice work.. going to hold 1/3 with B/E stop.. as spike lows can develop into good rallies in my book.... plus it's a cycle day for Gbp/Usd... I could be wrong... but no risk to my account.. GT

shanghai bc 15:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

ST -- Good evening..Thanks..Too narrow a range for the whole year so far..Hopefully, there is a big trendy move for the next several months..Good trades..

lahore rugal 15:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
where is fays. i only trust him.!!. because he is the one who censored me quiet hard today ..

Porto VMA 15:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Here goes euro like a rocket.
I think 1.20 was a good low for this retracement. Couldnīt break it. itīs time to rock, so lets go higher with euro

houston st 14:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 14:43 GMT -- I see your here past the dreaded 14:00 gmt...hope you are well and making lots of profits...good trades to you.

Pecs Andras 14:48 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Paul
Just closed out a few minutes ago. Nice pips from 8097:-)

melbourne farmacia 14:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras - indeed it did Andras.. u jump too ?

shanghai bc 14:43 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   

A very thin summer market..Several hundred pips does not mean much under present thin market conditions..Fwiw..

Nottingham 14:42 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...10 day sma comes in mid teens and demand should be expected around those levels...stops likely to be positioned below there...gl gt

Pecs Andras 14:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:34 GMT July 29, 2004
Great trade Paul
8080 held nicely, didn'T it?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd only have little time to stay. ideally in current time 15 minutes be dominated by selling orders. IMO

melbourne farmacia 14:34 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Off loaded 1/3 at 60 fwiw

USA Biscuit Boy 14:32 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
With the dollar index now at 90 resistance I would say it is a nice bet to sell dollars again here for at least another look at the recent lows and maybe even another leg lower. GL and GT.

GER ad 14:32 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CAD,
out at 2.4102

hk ab lazy 14:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
SF LongView 14:23 GMT July 29, 2004

you trust bloomberg??? quite hazardous to trades.... imvho.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
just my opinion.
eur/usd in my system have time only maximal 20 minutes to stay arround 1.2050. potential move down fast in 20 minutes, but if after 20 minutes from now still stay at 1.2050 that, not good for selling.

UAE Oil man 14:27 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
meant 10 the stops.

UAE Oil man 14:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
it's meant as it was written go long at 1.3270 stops 20 , AB...

SF LongView 14:23 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ECB doing a much better job than the FED?
Good article on Bloomberg: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aAzKccWtBxSI

ECB Trumps the Fed on Achieving Price Stability: Mark Gilbert
July 29 (Bloomberg) -- In any poll of ``best central bank,'' you'd expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to trounce the European Central Bank. Run the numbers associated with price stability, however, and the Frankfurt-based bank comes out on top.

Price stability is desirable because it takes a chunk of uncertainty out of planning, for governments, companies and individuals. It follows that the more successful a central bank is in securing stability, the better the chances for prosperity.
...................
Three measures of price stability -- inflation, central bank interest rates and bond yields -- show the ECB doing a better job than its Washington counterpart in the past five years in squeezing volatility. Moreover, the ECB's refusal to bow to political coercion earlier this year for a rate reduction means less pressure now to match its peers in the U.S. and U.K. by pushing up borrowing costs as the global economy recovers.
...................

hk ab lazy 14:21 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Note the gold divergence vs eur and aud.

Gold Coast martin 14:12 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW.....my system picked up 30th of july as crucial date for euro and other commodity currencies as i posted at begginning of july..tonites tussle to break 119 resistance level before the 30th gives me more confidence into my systems timeframe calls....g/t to all....

GER ad 14:07 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Long GBP/CAD at 2.4072

hk ab lazy 14:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
But with so many options taken out on eur 1.2 (I believe many small fishes to the same buy call.)... Mkt will have some large swings seen around this 1.2 before one side gives up....

BUT.... hm...summer move is not a reliable moment.

UAE Oil man 14:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 05:05 GMT June 24, 2004
Eur/cad sell near 6450, 6540 stops t/p 1.5555
...

We getting there...slowly slowly.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Nottingham on the eur/usd daily a bullish concealing baby swallow or a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern is emerging depending on the closing today

hk ab lazy 14:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, I would like to do THAT with shorting eur/gbp.
GT. and thanks.

hk ab lazy 13:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
bought half at 1.3280.

hk ab lazy 13:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
oilman, you mean s/l on dlr/cad long here at b/e?

I haven't entered yet 'cos my focuses are on chf and jpys....

melbourne farmacia 13:54 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Got bored selling Gbp/Usd... so picked up contra... stop at B/E

UAE Oil man 13:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Comporting itself as planned , AB..very close now to Take level.

hk ab lazy 13:51 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad so interesting.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes NH that is why I believe this will be a highly contested area for the eur/usd pair. If this goes then bottom could be a long way down.

Nottingham 13:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 13:41 GMT

outside bar is a higher high + lower low than previous bar...you have various derivatives of this based on closing levels but historically they have no real accuracy advantage...gl gt

HK Byron 13:41 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hi Nottingham, with my poor eng understanding, can u explain little bit more about "outside days today"... your views are highly respect!

gl and gt 2 u

Livingston nh 13:41 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw -- Unlike Cable which has the 200 da average underneath the EUR has only white space if the mid-June lows are taken -- the 1.1750 supports were negated for the most part by the June test

hk ab lazy 13:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
careless break of 1.2?
but this will roll off a lot of stuff.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
This area is too important for the bulls to let go just yet for the eur/usd pair. I donít think they will go down quietly Oil Man. After that support you mentioned (1990-2000), 1930-40, 1890-1900 and a revisit to the 1760-70 area would be next if the bears can break these supports. It will be a good fight IMHO. GT

Nottingham 13:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
looking to Friday's session, outside days today for euro cable and swissy all bode well for those expecting a strong move following the raft of numbers out of the US...gl gt

UAE Oil man 13:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
1.1990=>1.1936.

Global-View GVI 13:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:

LA Mel 13:17 GMT July 29, 2004
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, head of the group suspected of beheading two Bulgarian hostages, has reportedly been arrested in Western Iraq.

London Rhood 13:16 GMT July 29, 2004
Big Al Quaeda capture ?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Oil Man looks like you are headed that way. GT

Va Raven 13:16 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
I prefer not, if 2/3 run, not much left for tomorrow or nothing at all.

Tallinn viies 13:14 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
euro under pressure. someone fights for his rights? right?

we see today under 1,1990 I guess

UAE Oil man 13:12 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Omil, 1/2 and reload.

RIGA RIA 13:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
usd little soft ag zar to 6.2450 but bids remain ard 6.24/22 now n offers ahead 6.28/32 , large offers near 6.34/35....Expect hold 6.32/22 now but my med term tgt 6.15/12 agn n I watch sell higher....The better than expected CPI yesterday has also helped the rand but the higher oil price should nullify the effect..GL

Livingston nh 13:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Riga - have the currency bands for EUR entry been set for the new members of the EU

RIGA RIA 13:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EURHUF can hold now 247/249 range with good local bids ard 247.50/247 n Ldn offers abv 248.00..GL

RIGA RIA 13:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Poland - MPC raised interest rates by 25bps yesterday to 6% - confirming tightening bias. Next move expected in September when 2Q04 GDP data is available - with rising CPI, rising inflation expectations and rapidly expanding economy

the important factors..Heard many buyers ard 4.40/39 but heavy stops start under 4.38-- quick drop can provoke rally to 4.3650/3450....ress noz 4.4250 n 4.4400..GL

RIGA RIA 12:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Talk GBPJPY large offers near 205.00...GL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:58 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Key resistance for the eur/usd pair is at 1.2240-50 for now. If this continues to hold the bears are in control in this intraday time frame. Longer term time frame the bulls still have control but we can see how important this area is for both at this time IMHO. GL GT

RIGA RIA 12:58 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Low yesterday at 1.2000/05 was reported to contain Euro zone central bank bids. Stops below 1.2000 and above 1.2100..GL

Pecs Andras 12:54 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ab
GOld is at 386.30 now,down more than 2 bucks from previopus close

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Real good numbers will only do right now for dollar to continue to get stronger. The US data was as expected. Oil Man if you don't mind me asking are you going to dump your whole position for cad at resistance 3390 or unload some and let the rest ride? tia

hk ab lazy 12:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hey where's that Gold under 390 story? someone said funds would rush to load gold under 390......where're those people?

I am waiting in the range 350-370.

Pecs Andras 12:47 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Why is this 1.2000 so hard to crack...

hk ab lazy 12:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
oilman, looks like the eur is very mighty to guard 1.2 and eur/gbp, eur/chf, eur/jpy, eur/aud are helping at the moment with the last effort.....can't imagine gbp 1.81 handle with oil soaring so much...

Speculative VS speculative.

UAE Oil man 12:33 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes , NH..

Livingston nh 12:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Oil Man - I hope you rferring to CAD
Raven - data is unlikely to deter Fed on its path to neutral but data may panic these fine folks at some point

Roumeli anka 12:25 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
gold hammered

UAE Oil man 12:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
No first one was Today :)

UAE Oil man 12:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Longer time frames might see 1.37 and over during the next week as long as it stays above 1.3210 on daily close.

Va Raven 12:23 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Time frame is this week, Oilman?

UAE Oil man 12:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
1.3270 take..1.3390 Resistance breaks to 1.3450.
Stops 1.3210, raven.

Va Raven 12:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thans, nh, so the data from now on is becoming increasingly important.....

Livingston nh 12:17 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Raven - higher costs (especially in wages) -- seems market gets jerked around a little bit by a continuing debate about whether Fed will move in August or how many moves by the end of the year

Beijing Laowen 12:15 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Closed and reverse my short Aud/Usd from 0.6990 @ 0.6962.

Gold Coast martin 12:13 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hk nt....I WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO GIVE YOU TIMEFRAMES..But as far as entry and exits are concerned:enter NZD 6320..EXIT 6120 TIME FRAME:14 days
exit 59 31 days....EURO..ENTER 12045 ..EXIT..11920..TIMEFRAME..4 DAYS....EXIT 11780 TIMEFRAME.. 16 DAYS...AUD ENTRY 6980..EXIT 6860 TIMMEFRAME 3 DAYS...EXIT 6690..21 DAYS...G/T

Va Raven 12:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
In what way, nh?

Livingston nh 12:09 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
CAL - Employer Cost Index (part of G'span's Productivity myth) -- benefits cost continue to rise - anything above 1.1% (exp 0.9%) might tick treasuries and then USD

Dublin Flip 12:08 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Ok martin best of luck.
Heard RBNZ have 15yards to go at .6315
keep it to yourself though-LOL

Gold Coast martin 12:04 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP...Another reason why the poor flightless bird will fall into a cliff following the fate of the kangaroo....do you really think the RBNZ will allow parity with the aussie dollar?lets just be on the right side of the fence when both currencies tank...i know i am...good trades....

hong kong nt 12:03 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 11:41 GMT -- can you advise us on entry and exit levels for AUD, NZD and EURO trades??

chicago cal 12:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
is there any data out today that may boost these markets a bit?

tia

Dublin Flip 11:58 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Martin the kiwi traded 52/72 for fiteen years (including teh asian crisis) until we had an artifical and shortlived take-out to 39c. Given we traded less than 2months above 65c and we are still at the top end of a twenty year range in CRB I'm sure RBNZ give alot less thought to the NZD$ than you imagine. The biggest driver of NZ's economy is Australia. The dog wags the tail and the kiwi's fortunes are tied to the ozzie.

chicago cal 11:52 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
london:

basic economic cycles would indicate otherwise

GVI Jay 11:50 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan Growth Story Unstable (FXA)

Just because he says it's so doesn't make it so...Greenspan that is...oh that the June slowdown was a dip and there is no looking back as the economy bursts forth. Sure the US consumer confidence data from July, the first data point for Greenspan validation, was as the Chairman said...June was a temporary slowdown, count on the consumer coming back and jobs growing.. To see the full update, go to our New reasearch ection by CLICKING HERE

UAE Oil man 11:48 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Why recession?..the recession is behind us..in case you didnt notice..And yes there's lots of talks about recession, on how the market might drop any minute..Good..we're in front of a gigantic bull-market as I ve said many times..just wait the chinese and indians have bought all our products...and that china and india are totally upgraded to our levels...then you'll see the MAJOR recession..for now ...there's lot of work and money to be made by most companies selling their products to a huge consumer pool..debts arent a problem till everyone has the products and people needs to start paying as there's no growth ..

Gold Coast martin 11:41 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP...while the interest hike is a public show of an attempt by RBNZ to put a lid on the housing boom and stem any 'FUTURE" inflation fears they are simultaneously creating an over valued kiwi and they fully know this.....its a double edged sword flip.....g/t

Ldn 11:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man if we see the levels below you mention and Greenspan hikes rates the US will tailspin into recession.

UAE Oil man 11:32 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Morning,

As posted for some times (some weeks) $/yen is still a good buy for 114 and over(possibly 130 +) (we were near 107-108 at the time.) and now 110 is becoming a good support.

$/chf rocket launch 1.2670 also made it's work..and $/cad 1.3270/20 the next awaited captain's log flight for 1.45+ in the next few months.

As for Euro the trend will in a matter of months move prices 1.1879,1.1559..and slowly move within my time frame of 2 years towards the number posted in december.

As for oil , 36 was definitely a good buy (which i have advertised for some time..and low was 35.80), we should from here not take more risk than 36.45 and target 45-46.

Have a safe flight,

Captain oil.

Dublin Flip 11:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Martin the RBNZ are trying to slow the economy mate.
I'm sure they'll f... it up like they normally do and eventually they'll be trying to revive it but exports are hardly their major problem at the moment.

Tallinn viies 11:28 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Riga Jim 11:25 GMT July 29 - yes yes, thnks a lot

Gold Coast martin 11:28 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GENTLEMEN..without arguing this point further cast you minds back when kiwi was at 70 level and export sales were dropping anf RBNZ officials were quoted as been anxious to restore kiwis competitaveness....RBNZ currency interference is just preventative medicine despite current export sales figures which are high due to the kiwis value been between 59 and 62 in the last 2-3 months....g/t

Riga Jim 11:25 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 11:16 GMT July 29, 2004 // www.jibjab.com

chicago cal 11:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
masandi:

how's that cable long doing?

Ldn 11:18 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
The RBNZ obviously havent got a problem with a higher Dollar and feel that inflation is more of a problem , as far as exports are concerned they are at record highs and doing quite nicely.

Tallinn viies 11:17 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
good day all
how is it hanging?

Tallinn viies 11:16 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/contentPlay/shockwave.jsp?id=this_land&prepla

Gold Coast martin 11:14 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP....a weaker kiwi means a maintanace of export sales.... a strong kiwi means a decrease in exports which is the main feeder to nz economy...simple facts....g/t

Ldn 11:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Is it time for specs to start rebuilding short USD positions?

ABN Amro reckons it could be. Notes USD will need strong jobless claims and GDP data to maintain positive momentum. If not, market will look at high yielders again after RBNZ's rate hike and promise of more, and suggestions BoE is just waiting to raise its rates again.
ABN Amro rpt.

hk 11:03 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD is a buy above 1.72 & add above 1.7310 for 1.7450

Dublin Flip 11:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Kiwi may go down but it's got nothing to do with the RBNZ wanting a lower currency.

Dublin Flip 11:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Martin if the RBNZ is actually trying to slow the new zealand economy and exports are going through the roof there (and in Asutralia) why would they want to drive down the currency???
A weaker currency is also meant to be inflationary.
They aren't trying to revive a recession or respark a dormant sector of the economy but the opposite.

hk m 10:58 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
arnie for president in 2008 ?

Dublin Flip 10:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ac I don't want to break it to you but the big-hearted, square jawed cowboys in the movies are actually fake. They're actors. I'm sure in years to come we'll have a President who proclaims he tries live by the virtues of "Spiderman"-LOL

Roumeli anka 10:55 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
"Terrorism" is not the issue, the ability of the imperor to use his power is the real issue.

vancouver Thrakos 10:52 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
prbly alot he will just send 100 000 tropps to each central bank to make sure no one terorise his trades :)

chicago cal 10:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
looks like we have a few political types in a trading forum i wonder how much money w. bush would make trading currency

chicago cal 10:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
another opportunity to short cable today is if it breaks 1.8125 for about 100 pips

vancouver Thrakos 10:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
LA u r not making any sense.
what u call some one sanction a country starve its citizen, then bomb them, destroy their military then take their oil? Peace keeper? yea right

LA GOLD 10:39 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Mike, only the once with a culture of terrorism. Terrorism
is the desease.

yvr mike 10:33 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
LA GOLD 10:22 // Oh, please... there are tinpot dictators all over the world . Are Bush and Blair going to topple all of them??

Nottingham 10:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 10:03 GMT

dollar finding cad a difficult opponent and is really struggling to pull away from key 200 day sma...Canadian data due in a couple of hours is likely to take a back seat as market looks to form ranges ahead of tomorrow's key US numbers...overall US unit should maintain its bid tone into tomorrow's US data at 12:30GMT, but surely there will be a stop run to take out weak dollar longs ahead of it (either this US session today or London early tomorrow)>>>for euro read above 2085 to 1220 and back, while cable might get away with it having already taken good orders above 8260/65 this morning...gl gt

chicago cal 10:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
i think it will take a lot of guts selling dollars today. i don't think we'll see a major pull back until friday morning when the big guys take profits. i indicated tuesday morning that the market was long on the dollar. if you've been in this market for any length of time you would know that most of the weekly players take profits on friday.

gl,gt

LA GOLD 10:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ln, you are way off the mark. a world with people like saddam
running a country as if they own it, is not safe. we should thank, and pray for Bush and blair. we are lucky to have them,
instead of people like saddam. stick to forex,because you havnt a clue.

Antwerp Tom 10:15 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Viies, you around? Miss you, any ideas for today? GT GL

Melbourne Qindex 10:15 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 10:10 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham I mean not position longterm trade, but short term.. USD very overbought now, and seems correction to 2700-2680 IMO not good US data will initiate it

Belgrad KZ 10:03 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 09:56 GMT July 29, 2004
Your opinion about the direction of USD/CAD with a view to figures from Canada later today? TIA

ln 09:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 09:53 GMT. the problem is that a few little white lies cost us some 900 service men and unaccounted numbers in afgan. not saying that i dont agree with the operation but dont try and overplay bush. saddam/OBL and the rest of them need to be taken out but we decent people have to live decently.

hong kong nt 09:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
BC -- excellent call on weaker stock market, profit from future now enough to finance all the out-of-money put..

Nottingham 09:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:46 GMT

under 2800 & charts stay pretty for shs so interest there would be no surprise...up to 2870 case for shs probably still ok but after that some stop buying could take place...recent price action on usdcad good example that technical formations based on a longer timeframe have plenty of scope for noise, making trading on these formations alone quite hazardous...gl gt

Ldn 09:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
In a few little white lies are better than choppy people up as Saddam did

Moskow 09:51 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
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Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 09:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Rumours of huge offers US names 1.2800 and german 1.2850.
Sold USDCHF 1.2798

ln 09:45 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:19 GMT. not wanting to get into any political debates on the forex forum but do you not realise that both blair and bush lied to the public, their voters. i would not want to call such people cowboys because they are just cheats with little integraty. anyway back to fx.

Nottingham 09:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
cable...key zone 8095/8110...gl gt

KL KL 09:26 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm seems like those traders looking at our post...got taken out on gbpusd short...now in again at 1.8180 looking to get back my 20 pips loss first then 60 more more pips. sl 20 pips above. also short eurusd 1.2030 sl 15 pips above looking for 1.1960..lets go now

Gold Coast martin 09:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
HAIFA...once again you have excelled yourself!thank you for a thoughtful insight into the world of forex...dont give up selling felafels on the side....g/t

Haifa ac 09:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
One more time about COWBOYS:

What were common attributes of these legendary cowboys?

Here are a few:

They were never looking for trouble.

But when trouble came, they faced it with courage.

They were always on the side of right.

They defended good people against bad people.

They had high morals.

They had good manners.

They were honest.

They spoke their minds and they spoke the truth, regardless of what people thought or "political correctness," which no one had ever heard of back then.

They were a beacon of integrity in the wild, wild West.

They were respected. When they walked into a saloon (where they usually drank only sarsaparilla), the place became quiet, and the bad guys kept their distance.

If in a gunfight, they could outdraw anyone. If in a fist fight, they could beat up anyone.

They always won. They always got their man. In victory, they rode off into the sunset.


....
http://www.catsprn.com/cowboys.htm

(A truly great link)

Gold Coast martin 09:16 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry ..that should have been on the 3rd of july...typo

Gold Coast martin 09:15 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ct...david..why the 30th of july?i wrote about this date on the 30th of july as been a significant turn around date for the aud ,euro and all other commodity currencies including the kiwi..its just that the kiwi will receive a double whammy....g/t

Gold Coast martin 09:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ct david......after the 30th of july THE nzd at the 6280 range is far too uncompetative and as indicated previously by governor Bollard will receive special attention from the central bank in the form of a large currency sell-off in order to increade the kiwis trade competativenes...this will bring it down on its own steam to 61 and combine this with the overall bulishness of the USD the kiwi will go south to the 59 range again from where after a slight bouncr back to 60 there will be no return to the 63-68 range....there are a lot of other fundamentals involved but that is the main part of the story....g/t

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:07 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd 1.8157 (bid) done

Goes (NL) B747 09:02 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: my s/l @ 112.35 is on cards now after filling all sell USD orders since yesterday.
will it hit? - your opinions please!

tia & gt

Melbourne Qindex 09:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The lower barrier is likely to be challeged in the New York Session.


Melbourne Qindex 01:19 GMT July 29, 2004
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.8000 // 1.8062 - 1.8124 - 1.8186 - 1.8249 - 1.8311 - 1.8374 // 1.8436 ...


The key quantized level of my daily cycle is located at 1.8031

hk m 09:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry - should read 1.8150 and 1.8050

hong kong nt 09:00 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD -- 1.1960/70 is likely to be the bottom of present correction from 1.24, which is also an ideal entry level for position traders, if seen..

hk m 08:59 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
any views on cable a buy at 1.8050 or will better to wait for 1.8050?

Gen dk 08:54 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 08:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
be carefull when gbp/usd touch 1.8157 (bid)..buyers emotion level.

Brisbane L 08:47 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Cable dives as UK clearer that hit every bid and kept on selling
not the data caused the drop. trader talk

chicago cal 08:41 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
cable is a sell below 1.8150

Ldn 08:40 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
The Bank of England may have begun to cool the U.K. housing market, as the growth in mortgage lending slowed and new mortgage approvals fell in June, the central bank said Thursday.

However, a rise in unsecured loans pushed new borrowing up by GBP11.2 billion in June. That was faster than May's borrowing growth, which was GBP10.9 billion.

June's rise was the largest since September 2003 and pushed total outstanding debt above GBP1 trillion for the first time.

The increase in borrowing was in line with forecasts. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week estimated borrowing rose by GBP11.2 billion during the month.
Reuters

ct david 08:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
thanks martin, but could you please explain why after July 30th the rate of depreciation will increase?

sh dy 08:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi, everyone! Anyone tells me which direction to go for eur/usd?

Gold Coast martin 08:18 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
CT..DAVID...good evening...as per my earlier posts, the NZD for the next 24-48 hours will just follow the fortunes of the euro...up to the 30th of july the NZD will trade in the 6325-6270 range..after the 30th of july the rate of depreciation will increase more than other commodity currencies...i will post on this on the 30th..have not completed rate of devaluation on this pair yet....g/t

ct david 08:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hi gold coast martin, any thoughts for the next 24 to 48 hours on the NZD? TIA.

Brisbane 07:48 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Large 1.8200 Expiry GBP

Bah BAHRAIN1 07:39 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin,tim///Nice call....GL.

wisconsin tim 07:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
closing 1/2 gbp shorts tp on remaining at 8190 stops 8270

Sin Sam 07:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin Tim,

Good trade.... :)

Cheers

wisconsin tim 07:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
lowering stops to BE on gbp shorts

MONACO OGA 06:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 29/07
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2080), 20 pips higher than yesterday opening. The USD gained strenght against all other majors in the morning session (low EUR/USD 1,1999, low GBP/USD 1,8160, high USD/JPY 111,90) before retreating after the release of weaker than expected US June durable orders, The market interpreted the Beige book report that showed some slowdown in the manufacturing sector as a factor that could keep the FED from hiking rates at expected pace. Closing in NY was around 1,2050. Overnight, the pair hovered in a tight range (1,2038-65) before shooting up to 1,2087 on european open. A deep to 1,1950 is still possible but we think the market is about to rebound especially if the employment data later today is not as good as expected. Our range trading strategy is still valid for the time being, with a 1,1950-1,2525 range.

Data out today:

UK net consumer credit june expected 1.8 08.30 GMT
UK GFK consumer confidence july expected -5 09.30 GMT
US employment cost Q2 expected 1 12.30 GMT
US initial claims expected 340K 12.30 GMT

Gold at 391,00, with WTI Sept at 42,70 (oil at 21 year high on Yukos story)

***JPY***
USD/JPY (111,60). The pair stabilized to 111 before triggering some stops above 111,30 resitance and stopping a few pips away of our 112 target (high 111,90) and hovering around current levels. For the time being, we stick to our medium term strategy with the pair hovering inside 107-112. A violation of later level (not likely for the time being) would open way to critical 115 pivotal point.
EUR/JPY currently 134,75, hedging higher and looking neutral for the time being.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8280), printed a low of 1,8160 yesterday before retracing and closing the day at 1,8240. As far as daily closing is above 1,8200 we can consider we are still inside our expected 1,82-1,86 range. We will reiter our yesterday advice that the pair feels oversold, so we will favour a retracement to 1,8320-50 zone today.
EUR/GBP (0,6605), seems unable to sustain sub 0,66 levels so far. As long as 0,6630 is not taken back, we will remain neutral.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is vibrating around 1.2061.


... // 1.2023* - 1.2042 - 1.2061* - 1.2080 - 1.2098* // ...

wisconsin tim 06:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
selling gbp/usd stop above 1.8300

Caribbean! Rafe... 06:42 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
oh! you'll leave some pips on the table if you hit for 1.2130 level i have a radar reading for 58-87 level.

Brisbane L 06:41 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods been considering taking a punt on the Aud Long, do you see much upside with it ?

Spr Noods 06:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Upside for Euros today should taste 1.2130

Caribbean! Rafe... 06:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD LONG TPL 1 TPL 2 TPL 3 TPL 4 TPL 5
ENTRY 1.2075 1.2158 1.2187 1.2204 1.2219 1.2233
STOP 1.2049 1.2023 1.2010 1.1997

Nairobi TN 06:21 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the info.

Nice trades

Caribbean! Rafe... 06:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF SHORT TPL 1 TPL 2 TPL 3 TPL 4 TPL 5
ENTRY 1.2736 1.2650 1.2620 1.2601 1.2586 1.2571
STOP 1.2766 1.2797 1.2812 1.2828

Beijing Laowen 06:14 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Sold Aud/Usd @0.6990 S/R @ 0.7036 (offer).

Brisbane L 06:12 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi TN Last months house prices higher than forecast

Sgp Harry 06:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Stronger than expected Nationwide house-prices data

Nairobi TN 06:08 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Why the spike in cable?

White Plains NY bdodger 05:55 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Read the beige book just now...my take - U.S. economy drifting sideways & if oil doesn't come down...No way the USD can keep rising. Trouble is "timing is everything" and I am too
prudent to short the USD when it keeps going up.

Bah BAHRAIN1 05:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi FRnds....Good day to you all..........
Market is mixed...Still not clear which direction it will take.......but seems for today might test the up side, maybe a brk of 1.2080 will take us to 1.2110/20.
Let see how it will goes....take care and good luck to u all...wish you all profitable trades.

KL KL 05:10 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam, Looking at weekly, daily monthly...pointing close to 1.8 area but I suspect it will break that go lower tap dance and do a high jump pending this few days US data. Somehow I have a feeling that this drop was meant to hurt people who was $ bear last 2 weeks and those who are still holding $ shorts....there is no logic to currency these days just go with the flow....gl gt...btw just shorted gbpusd at 1.8233 sl 20 pips above and hoping for at least 1.8150 later...BOE almost last bullet to tighten...otherwise FTSE goes down drain....tough choice...

Brooklyn mhi 04:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
New York City pws 04:47 GMT July 29, 2004
was your brother running for public office?

Brisbane L 04:51 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Interesting report just read


High-profile bear,Deutsche strategist Ryoji Musha tipping global share price fall either a slowing of world economic growth and a fall long-term rates Says U.S. leading indicators deteriorating, tech slowdown visible; longer-term effects of higher oil prices deflationary as will sap purchasing power

New York City pws 04:47 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn..where do you trade out of? Do you have a desk there, or are you an individual trader out of home?

Brooklyn mhi 04:47 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:43 GMT July 29, 2004
thabk you will go to archive good night

Gold Coast martin 04:43 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
BROOKLYN.. i will be in a more specific position to share view on rate of accelaration for euro,aud and nzd on the 30th of july as i posted previously...my last post on euro and aud still applies to the 30th of july.....g/t

Brooklyn mhi 04:39 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:36 GMT July 29, 2004
Thank you for the explantion now any targets and stop that you would like to share with the forum

saratoga sam 04:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
KL...where is the Mother of All trendline for the sterling at? Are you speaking about the 1.8040 area on the daily?

Gold Coast martin 04:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
BROOKLYN...i am aware of it...it made little difference to the kiwi overall..their decision to hike was an "obligatory " one...the statement 'OBLIGATORY"...if you look at true fundamentals, their central bank has just artificially boosted their currency making the KIWI less competative export wise...in a country as isolated as new zealand that relies so much on export capability to maintain a relative high standard of living this was suicide...only 2 weeks ago governor Bollard was expressing grave concern at the high value of the kiwi and seeking ways to curb its climb....Basically ,a suicidal obligatory interest hike has sealed the fate of the kiwi short and medium term....g/t

Brooklyn mhi 04:34 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:14 GMT July 29, 2004
Do you mean the weekly bearish flag pattern!?

Brooklyn mhi 04:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:14 GMT July 29, 2004
they raised the interest rate to 6% with very hawkish statement.

Gold Coast martin 04:14 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
While everyone is focussing on the Euros demise short term to make their money a currency that will shed more pips SHORT TERM than any other high yielder is the NZD...its worth following....g/t

KL KL 04:04 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia , Do you have the list for turn date for DOW, $....etc...could you email me or post it here...Just nice to know sometimes.. as for gbpusd looks like tonight is the night to break mother TL which I think will occur and then do a triple toe , somersault up again GLGT..

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 04:03 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ObL switch his attention on Europe. as he says, "time is over"... poor EUR...

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:54 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Just to while away the hours, here is a spam list for placing unwanted guests like the spammer below.
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hong kong nt 03:49 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
AB -- USD 50-week ma maybe the key to watch...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:37 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
The eur/usd pair could not break the 1.1990-2000 (60% fib retracement from April to June) and has settled right under the Mother T/L for now and right above the Key fibo retracement line (also the 250ma on the daily chart) for now. Intraday indicators are unwinding and are mixed. Mid term indicators are going into the O/S area with a hint of turning up from there. Traders are probably waiting for the rest of the data this week to make up their minds which way to go with this pair. I have already mentioned the support before so I will concentrate on resistance for now. The % favors the bulls for a bounce from this area. As long as the 1.2000 support holds first retracement numbers are 1.2105-10, 2140-45 and 2175-80. Second retracement numbers are 1.2170-75, 2230-35 and 2280-85. Resistance is found at 1.2070-80, 2180-90, 2210-20, and 2240-60 for now IMHO. GL GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:22 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
just to kill time till london comes online.

http://web.mit.edu/wnellie/www/miniputt.swf

http://www.packphour.com/media/ijustwantbangbangbang.swf

Singapore Sfx 03:07 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
and replied mate..

melbourne farmacia 02:57 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Sfx - email sent.

sar jf 02:36 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nanning,Guangxi 02:16 GMT July 29, 2004
isnt the first rule of marketing know your customer- you obviously dont read too well

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:26 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Typical rogue eur/usd...takes kiwi's lead then shoots off on its own even tho kiwi dips..glad I didn't short! Can we nickname this pair 'ROGUE' for it's hisorically rogue moves?

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nan// This is a trading post forum only. We do NOT appreciate this advertising spam in the middle of a hot trading session!! Your email will be forwarded to known spam companies in return for spamming us. Thank you.

Singapore Sfx 02:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nanning,Guangxi - re your product - is it overbought ?

yvr mike 02:18 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Nanning,Guangxi 02:16// "shove it!" as the future first lady of the USA would say...

wisconsin tim 02:18 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wth, who wrote the novel

Nanning,Guangxi 02:16 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
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wisconsin tim 02:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 02:06 GMT July 29, 2004

4HR OB = now but the last 4 times over bought on 4HR = +480 pips

wisconsin tim 02:09 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/YEN buying break of today's high
EUR/USD selling break of today's low

shooting for ~30-40 each

EUR/GBP selling .6625 STP > .6650 TP < .6600

CAIRO AG 02:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
HELLO EVERYONE.... Can anyone of our Seniors here tell me where does he think EY will be OB ? Thanks

GL & GT

Brisbane L 01:56 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
It appears IFR have shorted Euro -GBP -AUD today for lower levels. FWIW

Brisbane L 01:52 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
AB just checking back but cant find it , it was higher deficit than expected also. for NZ.

hk ab lazy 01:40 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
my third entry limit on dlr/jpy 111.95.

hk ab lazy 01:35 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
L// Do you have the fig. on NZ as well? thanks.
fwiw, I have exited the eur/jpy shorts already and need to wait higher to short with this crazy speculative oil.

Brisbane L 01:33 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Australia's seasonally adjusted balance on trade in goods and services widened to a deficit of A$2.22 billion in June from a deficit of A$1.85 billion in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The figure is higher than analysts' expectations of a deficit of A$1.90 billion.
Australian Jun Exports +3%, Imports +5%

not sure on Aud after this

hk ab lazy 01:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GL and GT all today.
viies// Keep up the GREAT job.

Singapore Sfx 01:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
farmacia - email mate.

hk ab lazy 01:30 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
take care with cad vv,

I am busy today, will see you all later.

hk ab lazy 01:28 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thanks. Note oil is smacking the cable high and distorting the move in gbp/jpy....once oil unfolds, I think gb/jp unfolding follows.

melbourne farmacia 01:25 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
ab lazy - I don't have euro figures on me right now.. but fwiw we need to watch Gbp/Usd today based on time input info. GT

Florida vv 01:24 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 01:20 GMT July 29, 2004

One of which is Long USD/CAD @ market s/l below 1.3260 t/p around 1.40 med term

Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


hk ab lazy 01:20 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
cairo amgad 01:10 GMT July 29, 2004

I only want to suggest you that to wait for a retracment to short, 'cos in that case your stopping "pips" will not generate too much pressure on you.

If you sell stop on some important levels which will initiae a bounce rather an avalanche, it's suicide.

I would not enter if I have missed a gd level, instead, there are many good levels everyday in different pair.

cairo amgad 01:10 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 00:52 GMT July 29, 2004
Thank you

I mainly use T/P1 as a signal to move S/L,
it is good for short time trading (1-4hours); however i do not like to open position and get out without small profit if possible T/P1

T/P2 is good for short time trading (1day) after which i close on market price.

S/L is yesterday high; if broken it is a sign for up-trend to continue, I get out and re-enter again on sell stop price or maybe 111.73 then, I am flexiable in entry and S/L levels but not with target levels.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:08 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR Rangin towards a long

CHF opposite

GBP not yet definate but more towards long side.

JPY not yet definate but ranging towards short side.

will keep updating as time goes by

hk ab lazy 01:05 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, is there any major cycle day in Aug? or in Sept? TIA!

hk ab lazy 00:53 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
seems to me the same scenario as last night... pix will reach 111.95 again, then falls back......
Last night chf move was so "anticipated".

hk ab lazy 00:52 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
cairo amgad 00:44 GMT July 29, 2004
good morning;

Just curious to ask you what if pix can't reach your t/p 2?
You are risking 40 pips with 30 pips profit in the first t/p

cairo amgad 00:44 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
good morning;

USD/JPY has completed its highs(111.92), It need some rest before new high takes place.

SELL Stop (40k) USD/JPY at 111.53(bid) S/L 111.93(ask)

T/P1(20k) 111.20 T/P2(20k) 110.46

Remember to move S/L to entry level after T/P1.

GL GT

Brisbane L 00:34 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
NAB economists say Australia's June trade deficit to widen sharply to A$2.2 billion, vs forecast consensus of A$1.9 billion

Brisbane L 00:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am are you the same Wellington from a few years back Working for ANZ

hk ab lazy 00:31 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
nzd may not even have legs good enough to go pass the .6350 today.....

ny amc 00:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Anyone ever use the website called guru.net

hk ab lazy 00:29 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 00:23 GMT July 29, 2004
Brooklyn mhi 00:19 GMT July 29, 2004
I'm saying that the kiwi looks like leading the majors up against the recent US$ bull run.



kiwi leading the majors up??
hahaha.......

Brooklyn mhi 00:26 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 00:23 GMT July 29, 2004
ty 4 u'r quick response just wanted to make sure i understood

wellington am 00:23 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 00:19 GMT July 29, 2004
I'm saying that the kiwi looks like leading the majors up against the recent US$ bull run.

Brooklyn mhi 00:19 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 00:11 GMT July 29, 2004
you saying kiwi going below .63

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:17 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
Tks Dublin, SFX for rounding up that link! That is a GOOD chart/tool.

Wellington am 00:11 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
personally i'm still a dollar bear, but a conservative view would be a 38.2% retracement of this last run.

Brooklyn mhi 00:06 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 00:01 GMT July 29, 2004
how much can she go

wellington am 00:01 GMT July 29, 2004 Reply   
kiwi leading the dollar bear recovery on rate rise news.

 




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