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Forex Forum Archive for 07/31/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:19 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Buy on dip is the preferred trading strategy for position trading and the target is 1.3503.

Va Raven 18:29 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
Not some news, but a reminder......

"HONG KONG – Massive investment opportunities in China and India may help Asia withstand a flood of currency repatriation back to the US in the wake of new tax bill the Homeland Investment Act.

The bill will enable multi-nationals to repatriate forex to the US at a slashed income tax rate of 5.25% – down from the current rate of 35% – heralding a potential flow of $100–200 billion globally back to the US.

But while there is little to keep US firms’ cash in Europe currently, the potential offered by the world’s fastest growing emerging markets may help keep money in the region, said analysts.

"New markets with growth potential such as China and India are the ones in which US multi-nationals are looking to invest more – so there’s no particular need for them to send this money back," said Irene Cheung, head of Asian sovereign and FX strategy at ABN Amro in Singapore.

Analysts at Standard Chartered agreed: "It is unlikely that tax cuts alone would make reinvestment in China less compelling," said Claudio Piron, head of FX strategy at StanChart in Singapore. "This is especially so if the returns on investments in China remain favourable."

Piron also noted that in order to repatriate sizeable flows out of the region, US corporates would have to navigate a maze of existing capital restrictions.

Yet while investment opportunities in emerging markets may offer a counterweight to the lure of tax cuts on repatriated cash, more mature markets such as Singapore – accounting for 19% of US multinational corporation receipts from Asia – may suffer as a result of the bill. "Multinationals may want to take advantage of the lower tax rate to take money out of markets such as Singapore, where they already have a lot of investments and are not committing to new investments," said Cheung.

However, the FX impact of this money being repatriated to the US may be limited because much of it is already held in US dollars, noted Piron.

Either way, market participants in Asia are agreed that the impact of the bill, which is still passing through Congress, will be lower in the region than in Europe.

"It’s very much a dollar-based story and the biggest exposure is against the euro. It shouldn’t have much impact against other currencies," said Joe Kraft, head of FX at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the US Department of Commerce, estimates that Asia-Pacific accounts for 21% of US foreign direct investment, compared with Europe’s 49%.

Va Raven 18:25 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
They wrote the other way 2 weeks ago.....

"LONDON – The global currency markets could be in for a bout of unseasonal volatility and trading activity if the US dollar breaks through its recent range against the euro, traders said last week.

Despite late falls on Friday, the dollar was significantly up against major currencies, the yen and the euro, last week. The European currency dropped from $1.24/e to $1.20/e in the space of four days, pushing it to the bottom of its recent trading range.

Bankers said this aggressive pricing action went against a general trend for low volatility. "Option-implied volatility in euro/dollars has fallen dramatically in recent months because the market has not broken out of its range," said Steve Saywell, senior currency strategist at Citigroup.

The decline in implied volatility over recent weeks (see chart, below) has also reflected significant demand from the leveraged community for exotic option structures that have positive returns if the ranges are maintained, according to CitiFX research.

Others said July had been one of quietest months for the wholesale market. "Even in the intra-day market, no-one has wanted to buy any gamma," said Kelvin Jouhar, head of foreign exchange at HBOS Treasury Services.

But the dollar’s rise – up 1.1% against the yen on the week and touching ¥112/$ before falling back in trading on Friday – has led traders to ponder whether the move is technical or could be more fundamental in nature.

"This could be the beginning of a big move," said Tony Norfield, global head of FX research at ABN Amro in London. "In euro/dollar, dollar/yen and dollar/sterling, three-month volatility has risen half a point over the past week."

A strengthening dollar is likely to lead to the cutting back of speculative positions – notably short dollar, long euro.

Banks report that in-house research shows that as many as 70–80% of short-term currency funds have lost money this year. "You have a situation where many of these funds are going to jump on what they perceive as a new trend, especially if it’s counter-intuitive – which, until now, a rise in the dollar has been," said Norfield.

All eyes are on data coming out of the US, which is beginning to suggest a strengthening economy and a potential rise in interest rates.

On Tuesday, confidence – measured by the Conference Board index, which measures confidence in the US economy – jumped to 106.1, its highest level for two years, pushing the dollar to a two-month high against the yen and a six-week peak against the euro. The crucial non-farm payroll numbers are due out on Friday, August 6.

If the softness of the US economy looks like being short-lived, accounts are likely to start to reconsider their hedging positions. "At the moment, US interest rates are low so it’s cheap to sell dollars forward," said Norfield. "As US rates rise, selling dollars forward becomes less cheap or even expensive, and we are likely to see a shift in hedging flows in favour of the dollar." Norfield said that if the dollar breaks through its $1.20/e range, it could strengthen as far as $1.15/e.

The greenback has already broken through its ¥110/$ range, with traders reporting dollar/yen business as the bright spot of a hitherto slow market, with volumes about twice the norm for this time of year.

One brake on the dollar could be the rising oil price, which reached a 21-year high of $43.05 per barrel last week. Higher crude prices could damage the US economy’s recovery, and therefore weaken the dollar, economists said. "

Haifa ac 16:43 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
"Edmonton, AB MH 18:14 GMT July 30, 2004
"anyone outhere that knows about Scalping....... "//

Cheyenne, Arapaho, Huron, Chichimec, Iroquoi ,Muskhogean tribes. Visigoths (9 th century),

Livingston nh 13:35 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
The US Q2 GDP should at least raise some questions for G'span and his "core" inflation spin - GDP would have been 4.8% if the deflator was at the same level as last year's Q4 // when the Spin stops working the panic starts at the Fed - "measured" may mean 50 bps per meeting

Ldn 10:46 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc could you give your views ont he levels of which
Gondomar fxbasilio mentions are they likely. thank you

Gold Coast martin 10:21 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
HK..NT..Definite on the i dont deal with the dow or the sp i couldnt give you sprecific information on it....monday i will be running all the info through my system for all commodity currencies to determine rate of de-acceleration so i can tell then what the status will be for the cad...g/t

Surabaya Medallion 09:35 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
It seems we must wait for next Friday Employment Report and 10 August FOMC meeting as yesterday news is neutral and in the meantime had better play short EUR 1.19-1.21 range. Plan to Exit Yen as there is no hope for oil to go under 40 although I think resistance is firmly established around 112 next week.

hong kong nt 09:17 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- summer range of euro is about 600 and 800 pips respectively in 2002 and 2003. Now, if we assume euro 1.24 is one end of the range, another end maybe 1.16-1.18; or if we assume euro 1.19 is one end of the range, another end maybe 1.25-1.27, of course, they are other many possibilities..

hong kong nt 09:03 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 03:01 -- if summer is defined as the period between 1-Jul to 31-Aug, on a daily closing basis, eur/usd dropped about 100 and 500 pips respectively in 2002 and 2003 summer...

hong kong nt 08:52 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD -- hope to see a range of 1.197-1.222 with mild upside bias..

hong kong nt 08:47 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
MARTIN -- do you think usd/chf 1.10-1.15 plus a generous discount on Nasdaq, S&P and DJ are pre-requisite for formation of MT USD bottom??

Gold Coast martin 07:22 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
Also worth noting is that it will be a question of which currency has the better structural fundamentals...eurozone/usa....the only entity that can inject a positive spin into the euro will be the ECB by acting and not talking...this is somehow a long way away so for now look for further euro weakness and a strengthening dollar....g/l

Gold Coast martin 07:16 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
good afrernoon,,..The USD data despite the high market expectations,has confirmed the the economy is on an upward momentum but not growing as fast as predicted due to high oil prices...still it is growing....There is a 'MARKET CONDITIONING" that is creeping in to the market that is telling us in simple words that the USD will get stronger in the short ,medium and long term and that any perceived usd weaknesses are slowly been weeded out.This was confirmed by fridays data that despite the weker than expected figures the DOLLAR did not lose ground and gained against the euro.July the 30th als confirmed that the euro was no longer a currency of choice as a haven against any perceived dollar weknesses..that is why i stressed july the 30th as been an important watersheding date for the euro/dollar pair on the 3rd of july...taking this into consideration,it is anticipated that the euros downward tend accelaration rate will be more rapid starting from monday and continuing up to the end of the year...expect the euro to re-visit the 11980 level on monday upon which it should break convincingly,opening the floodgates to the 11780 crucial level by end of the trading relation to the aud and nzd currencies,while their depreciation rate was not as rapid as the euro on friday expect the aud and nzd to break the 6980 and 6250 levels on stop for both currencies will be the 6820 and 6150 levels respectively by the end of the trading week,paving the way for aud to 6750 and nzd 59....good trades to all....

guangzhou lolo 06:46 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
bc. nice to see you here. eur/usd looks quite weak, do you still think it will go up from current level? tia.

hk ab lazy 05:57 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
I got to leave now, have a nice w/e all.

hk ab lazy 05:55 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
bc//I think phuket.

And I REMEMBER well the aud story. If my memory right, that's your first teaching to me in 2002-2003. Thanks!

My highest respect and regards to you, bc.

shanghai bc 05:02 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Where have you been during the summer of 2002 and 2003?..

SYD 03:25 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
IMM update

SYD 03:24 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
A HREF="">IMM update

hk ab lazy 03:01 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// this summer is the first summer "pro-USD"....
Fighting with my inate, still holding the dlr/chf long and eur/chf long.
Also holding 3 dlr/jpy shorts.

hk ab lazy 02:59 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
nt//He doesn't deserve that at all....

hong kong nt 02:32 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- do you want to get a easy job with annual payout some 20 times more than Greenspan? if yes, apply the ceo of Hong Kong Monetary Authority. your job only requires you to speak in front of the tv doing a few presentations, eg "..the external environment is bad, blah, blah, blah and so we loss money in last quarter..." OR "..the external environment is good, blah, blah, blah, and we make some money.. ", if you have time, compare the return of funds under HKMA vs US T-bonds, you may see more interesting findings...

Gondomar fxbasilio 00:15 GMT July 31, 2004 Reply   

A reading that I make of some indicators is the following one (to a period around the 100 days):

- EUR/USD - they do not remain you doubt. Cross goes to break the 1.2000. I place as targets following the 1,1680 and case this value aguente then we will not go to walk in direcção to the 1,1480! It will be that the Bin Laden studied AT and uses to advantage to launch the panic in the Europe? (thus the analysts technician cannot complain of it)

- USD/JPY - one cross to go up. We are next to the 113,80 that without a doubt it will be the hardened wall of breaking. If brokes (as I wait) comes of followed the 115,80....impossible be in October in the house of 119.xx? (curious it is the Aroon indicator not to be to the side of this forecast.... ). Passing the 113,80 bulls will have the free land to go up.

- GBP/USD - cross that together in carrocel of the descending with eur/usd. We will go to reach the 1,7550 as first support, that to be broken will go it to shoot for the 1.7140. If of fact to break this value then leaves to have next net and the house of 1.65xx could be reached.

- AUD/USD - of fact who to fight against dolar in the next times must exactly lose. Plus a case he will be aud/usd. I see as values to reach the 0,6820 proximamente, later the strong barrier of the 0.6740. Breaking the 0,6740 it will go to be with the next well moved away support in the 0.6240. It will go to reach this value? It was a tremendous simplist analysis and with awful aspect? Somebody wants to comment?


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