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Forex Forum Archive for 08/1/2004

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CA Clouy 23:59 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, i've sent to him again. GL for ur long position.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:57 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
well i'm in on this since 1.2061. Gunning for 1.2141 later on during the day if all goes well.

good way to test out my model too by following every call blindly if even technical indicators say the opposite. with very small risk of course nothing to lose sleep over.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:53 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
clouy// you can try to e-mail him again.

Ga Lee 23:52 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Close below the 50 wk av looks pretty gloomy to me Rafe, imo..think I'll be sellin' yeah, it's probably

wisconsin tim 23:52 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 23:40 GMT August 1, 2004
anyone opened eur/jpy long?

yeah i am long at 133.95

CA Clouy 23:49 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, 15&30min MACD all show a buy signal, but...

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT August 1, 2004
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1952. The odds are good that the market will head for this target on Monday.

btw. I haven't got the reply from Jay about ur email. If you can post ur email address here, I"ll send u the two signal websites.


Caribbean! Rafe... 23:44 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
any comment on my 23:40GMT?

hk ab lazy 23:40 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
anyone opened eur/jpy long?

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:40 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Got a buy signal on Euro but wondering if i should take it.

ENTRY 1.2058 1.2141 1.2170 1.2187 1.2201 1.2215
STOP 1.2002 1.1945 1.1917 1.1889

hk ab lazy 23:26 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
could buy some later.

hk ab lazy 23:20 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
wants to break the uptrend on eur/chf on news?....

Let's see.

oslo oskar 23:00 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 21:54 GMT August 1, 2004
Dallas GEP 22:25 GMT August 1, 2004

Many chuckles over this in terchange!

Dallas GEP 22:25 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
WHATEVER RATON....Most of the so called "PROFESSIONALS" are losing money BIGTIME.

Dallas GEP 22:22 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy longs @ +17, closed usd/cad shorts @ +10 FLAT NOW

Bilbo T&O Fx 22:17 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Euro Rally:
Is the euro inside a little rally?
Read FREE the EUR/USD elliott wave analysis at Weekly Forecast:

Dont understand the charts?
Tutorial at:

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Ldn 22:15 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP) - The federal government warned Sunday of possible terrorist attacks against "iconic" financial institutions in New York City, Washington and Newark, N.J., saying a confluence of chilling intelligence in recent days pointed to a car or truck bomb.The government said the new intelligence indicated the meticulous planning of al-Qaida. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge identified explosives as the likely mode of attack, as opposed to a chemical or biological attack or a radiological "dirty" bomb.In an unprecedented action, the government named these specific buildings in densely populated areas as potential targets:

Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York City._The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank buildings in Washington.

_Prudential financial in northern New Jersey.

"The preferred means of attack would be car or truck bombs," Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said in a briefing with journalists. "That would be a primary means of attack," he said.

The government said the new intelligence indicated the meticulous planning of al-Qaida. Ridge identified explosives as the likely mode of attack, as opposed to a chemical or biological attack or a radiological "dirty" bomb.

Ridge said the government's threat level for financial institutions in just these three cities would be raised to orange, or high alert, but would remain at yellow, or elevated, elsewhereThe official said the intelligence gathered from several sources included security in and around these buildings; the flow of pedestrians; the best places for reconnaissance; how to make contact with employees who work in the buildings; the construction of the buildings; traffic patterns; locations of hospitals and police departments; and which days of the week present less security at these buildings.To illustrate the level of detail included in the intelligence, the official cited these examples: midweek pedestrian traffic of 14 people per minute on each side of the street for a total of 28 people; that some explosives might not be hot enough to melt steel; and that the construction of some buildings might prevent them from falling down.The official said he had not seen such extraordinary detail in his 24 years in intelligence work. U.S. counterterrorism official said the threat information is based in large part on documentary evidence obtained by CIA in successful counterterrorist operations, working independently and in concert with other countries. Some other information also played a part in the warning.Ridge said it would be up to New York City officials to decide whether to move to the highest level, red. The city has remained on orange since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.The threat potential remains through the Nov. 2 elections, Ridge said.The secretary said the government took the unprecedented step of naming particular buildings because of the level of specificity of the intelligence. "This is not the usual chatter. This is multiple sources that involve extraordinary detail," Ridge said. He said the government decided to notify the public because of the specificity of detail it had obtained.
Ridge acknowledged that protecting these buildings, located in heavily populated areas, would require additional security measures, especially because thousands of cars and trucks travel through these cities daily."Car and truck bombs are one of the most difficult tasks we have in the war on terror," Ridge said.Local and state officials were notified earlier in the day and Ridge said new security procedures were already being put in place.The exchange and the Washington institutions were to open for business Monday.An NYSE spokesman declined comment on security, but increased measures since the Sept. 11 attacks have included barricades on all sides and checkpoints to enter the building. A Citigroup spokesman cited a company e-mail to employees that said they should expect to see tighter security at all of its New York buildings.In the capital, the FBI, Secret Service and city police will provide additional security. Messages for Prudential officials were not immediately returned.A White House spokeswoman, Erin Healy, said the intelligence on the threat was "very new, coming in during the last 72 hours.The president made the final decision today agreeing with the recommendation of Secretary Ridge to go ahead and raise the threat level in these select areas," Healy said.This was the first time the color-coded warning system had been used in such a narrow, targeted way, Ridge said at a news conference at department headquarters."With this kind of information comes action," Ridge said. "This is sobering news."Referring to terrorists who are hostile to the United States, Ridge said, "Iconic economic targets are at the heart of their interest."

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:13 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply

Boca Raton 21:54 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, You just can't help yourself can you? The professionals are on to you pal.

Dallas GEP 20:10 GMT August 1, 2004
I noted on Friday I moved stop down to 1.1985.

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT July 30, 2004
Longed eur/usd @ 1.2032 stop 1.2010, target 1.2072

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:54 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
39.5 is where Oil is Heading

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 21:51 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   

UAE Oil man 21:37 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
The other thing oil between 35-40 is not that cheap..what's wrong with supplying those prices.

wisconsin tim 21:34 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
buying EUR/JPY chart

selling EUR/USD @ 1.2166 or break below 1.1990
buying USD/YEN @ 110.40 or break above 112.49
buying AUD/USD @ 0.6967 SAR 0.6927

UAE Oil man 21:34 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
The other thing is whatever happens to Yukos, the oil will be pumped ,wether yukos belongs to someone else or government ,oil will still be pumped.

UAE Oil man 21:31 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Ya well ok Might see 39 or so by friday and 37 by mid next week or so..most important is what's happening at should definitely start doing a bottom process at those levels or it's not good particularly if 35.80 breaks.

Tallinn viies 21:24 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 21:21 GMT - thnks, isnt it too quick ? I mean with one week down so much on very bull market

UAE Oil man 21:24 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Unless offcourse something ELSE happens,another shock or panic by whatever event.

Melbourne Qindex 21:24 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 16:22 GMT - I need to update my cycle analyses when the market is trading below 1.19.

Brisbane L 21:22 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
The International Monetary Fund has been advised by U.S. authorities of the "possible threat" from terrorists, and is "taking appropriate security precautions," a spokesman said Sunday. The spokesman wouldn't elaborate. The headquarters of the IMF and its sister organization, the World Bank, in are downtown Washington, less than a mile from the White House. Both institutions were mentioned by Homeland Security Secretary Thomas Ridge Sunday as potential targets of a terrorist attack

UAE Oil man 21:21 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
//viies,There is enough supply to satisfy everyone at current price levels..

Tallinn viies 21:09 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
you think of course

Tallinn viies 21:05 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 18:11 - If I undersatnd you correctly then I think we may see Nymex crude light down 13% with this week?
why? thanks in advance,

Brisbane L 21:02 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Al-Qaeda may target New York-based firms - report
Al-Qaeda had been plotting suicide attacks on major corporations headquartered in New York City, ABC News reported on Saturday based on what it said was "credible intelligence" from federal and city officials.

ABC News said sources at several law enforcement agencies told it "that an 'overseas source' provided the information about the threat to New York and that it is more significant than the usual 'chatter' intercepted from likely terrorists that has prompted warnings in the past". ABC said the sources also told it Wall Street firms may be among those targeted.

Authorities were particularly disturbed that the intelligence reports indicate attacks may be carried out by one or more suicide truck bombings, ABC News said. Local and federal officials met late into Friday night and on Saturday morning to discuss the matter, ABC News said. A statement from the New York City Police Department posted on the ABC News Web site said: "Intelligence reporting indicates that al-Qaeda continues to target for attack commercial and financial institutions, as well as international organisations, inside the United States." The police department said it "recommends that corporate and institutional security directors review their protection of HVAC (heating and air conditioning) systems, parking installations, and security in general

Dallas GEP 20:37 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Ok SUGGESTION...nothing has really changed from Friday it seems USD is being bought on all dips. So if doing contra trades like I am ....close quickly after usd shorts because USD buying will be happening again on dollar dips. USD/CAD will be delayed on dips so allow for that if short.

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy @ 111.05 ask

Dallas GEP 20:30 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed long eur/usd @ 1.2070, closed short usd/chf @ 1.2740

Global-View Jay 20:21 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
From GVI (why dollar is opening weaker)

GVI john 19:55 GMT August 1, 2004
The U.S. raised the threat level for financial institutions, warning of possible terror attacks against "iconic" targets like the Citigroup and New York Stock Exchange buildings in New York, the Prudential building in Newark, N.J. and the IMF and World Bank buildings in Washington, D.C.

GVI Jay 18:11 GMT August 1, 2004
Rainy Sunday here:

DJ reports US warns of possible terror attacks on following:

Prudential Building in Newark
NYSE and Citicorp in NYC
IMF, World Bank in Washington DC

GVI john 16:52 GMT August 1, 2004 E
Washington, DC raising terror alert level to orange. NYC has been at orange since 9/11

Dallas GEP 20:10 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
I noted on Friday I moved stop down to 1.1985.

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT July 30, 2004
Longed eur/usd @ 1.2032 stop 1.2010, target 1.2072

Dallas GEP 15:31 GMT July 30, 2004
Shorted USD/CAD at 1.3280, shorted usd/chf at 1.2780

GER ad 20:06 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
out at 2.3245

Dublin CK 19:42 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:06 GMT August 1, 2004

Thanks for the chart, i have been following your posts. Some have been quite excellent. I was wondering though, how accurate in the past has been your forecasting/modelling? TIA

Va Raven 19:30 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks NH, always enjoy your views on the macro economic front, sharp and to the point!
Good luck for the new week and month!

Livingston nh 19:25 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Raven - Japan's debt as % of GDP is over 140% - it pays 21% of its annual budget for debt service - as interest rates rise there the holders will lose significant wealth // Italy is over 100% and Germany and France are in the mid to high 60s with annual deficits expected to exceed the EU limit again next year // even Canada has been near 80% the past few years

Dallas GEP 19:19 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Current USD/CHF is 1.277 and euro is 1.2045...This is what I was expecting late FRIDAY

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:06 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply
Eur Next three weeks with time chart
1st virtical Line is this monday...each line is monday

Va Raven 19:03 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
"perhaps Japan or the EU core might be a better place to look for debt problems"

NH, could you elaborate it a bit? Tia.

UAE Oil man 18:11 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes Jp not exactly a pure correlation in those 2 instruments.
More easily spotted in Euro/$ against CL .

It does look like a panic move last week in oil , we thus might be in front of the end of the uptrend in a straight line(at least for the next 2 months), we will see this week how oil behaves in front of 38 with the major support at 36 too(now over 43)..
Another thing to note is the bullish sentiment increase in Oil which should make a nice exhaustion pattern in the uptrend for the next few weeks..I do not foresee any shortage more in oil supplies (at least in august..also one of the lowest oil consumption months during a year.)

As for the euro/$ note the still very high OI(open interests) in the IMM's which could lead to the lower targets posted 2 weeks ago for the dollar against the euro..Same for the Dollar against the yen..

Also noted the quite bullish high sentiment for the dollar in the forum and in many subscription services (which has raven pointed out where all looking the other way just before the downside in euro/$...As usual..) howerver as we all know they/it(the sentiment) will turn to bearishness in 100 pips dips in the dollar which is the common case in the world of the zero sum game played by the general loosing players(more than 96%..)

by qmc 18:00 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
sar..jf.......why will euryen n gbpyen hold the key

Va Raven 17:59 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 03:20 - What made you come to that conclusion?

Ltn th 06:13 - The figures were given by FXW which actually no one knows for sure what the numbers should be, I saw that from 100 - 800 in the past. The point is that this is not a real news, it's been the issue for many months now, if we see some sudden and unexpected dollar strength out of nowhere, we might have something to "blame" or look at....

I just simply pointed that out, no personal bias attached.

sar jf 17:41 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
simple mkt - if you trade off old news or old relationships you will lose - mkt looks forwrd - what direction will cause the most unexpected response - euryen n gbpyen hold the key this month - forget the past look to the future gt

Coventry Ledge 17:34 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
I'm new to this forum, I just wanted to say hello and I look forward to reading other Forex Traders opinions

Mtl JP 17:33 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Alimin 15:44 / re dollar <-> relationship, a pic worth a thousand words: usdx vs oil price chart

Sydney Alimin 16:22 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, is there a bounce to expected once we reached euro 1.1952 or are we heading lower to your 1.15 range target? if there is a good chance that we will see a bounce then i would prefer to short again from higher level since the price we have got here is very close to 1.1952 already

Another question is, do you still see this as ranging market or are we heading to 1.09 as some suggested like McKegg?

Fundamentally in short term I think we are heading for much lower levels due to the rising rates but then the latest move could already mean that market is already pricing in August 10 rate hike. Subsequent hikes to above 2% should still bring dollar stronger if economic data are not deteriorating in a big way. After that though is another scenario where longer term, twin deficits should come into play again as well as the overall economic condition (will the hikes be too late already and are we heading to a recession?) which is dollar negative.

Sydney Alimin 15:44 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
anyone care to explain what is the direct relationship between usd and oil price? last time oil price rose, usd was sold off and now oil price rises again but usd is bought

Livingston nh 14:29 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
nearly half of the US public debt is held by Social Security Trust Fund so 4 trio is more like the outstanding debt -- perhaps Japan or the EU core might be a better place to look for debt problems

Mtl JP 11:24 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
am 08:20 /in ref to "as to what there is to keep this 10 day, 200+ pip move going?"

Not intending to minimize them but 200 pip rallies are actually not that much of a move in the grand scheme of things.

US public debt is growing at approximately 1,200 - 1,600 million dollars per day, recently having traversed $7,300,000,000,000 ($7.3trillion) early last week, or grew by 3% during the 2Q, projecting to hit $445 bios - some 19% more than in 2003.

It may pay to keep an eye on the ratio of foreigner demand for US debt instruments in light of the some $145 billion/qtr growth in trade and investment gap, for as demand falls off - and to partially answer your "what keeps .. this .. move going" - interest rates have to rise. Usually when a ccy offers prospects for interest rates rise, it also rises against other ccies.

hk m 11:00 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
regarding inflows to the US, the proposed Homeland Investment Act appears to be the beginning of a move that, if supported by other political and fiscal measures might lend a helping hand to the dollar

wellington am 08:20 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Interesting to detect a usd bullish mood on forum. Can't agree personally. What drove the move up? Some upbeat comments from Greenspun and the market caught $ short? And what is imvho, i'm skeptical as to what there is to keep this 10 day, 200+ pip move going? Not a lot, at least not until next non farm pay rolls come out. Market is over bought on USD, and needs to correct. Just look at a $/jpy daily - this chart is getting vertigo. Pull back to 110 by end of week, probably sooner. Let's not even get into the massive amount of USD treasury bonds just waiting to get repatriated from China/Jpy. Then there's the amount of interest rate rises needed to balance the current us account deficit and inflation rates - these will kill thier economy and be politically unpalattable. All this talk of a us correction is just the result of massive low interest rate pump priming - us deflation + housing/share market crash upcoming.

hk ab lazy 08:09 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// dlrchf?
But imvho, this 1.28 area is obtained too fast and too easy...

hong kong nt 08:04 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
USD bearish scenario -- weekly chart shows a potential triangle with trendline and 50 sma guarding the top at 1.2900, a downside break would call for re-visit of 1995.04 historic low 1.1110...

Ldn Viewer 06:49 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 06:13 GMT - Have also heard numbers of USD 700 Billion FWIW ..

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1952. The odds are good that the market will head for this target on Monday.

Ltn th 06:13 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 18:29 GMT // The figure of $100 to $200 billion seems extremely low, where does it come from? If it is correct then such repatriation could be potentially very dangerous for USD in medium term after they have shot their wad. I would expect some five times these levels if the US economy is at all healthy.

Sydney Alimin 05:39 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
euro heading to 1.18 in two weeks time? let's that level more desperate selling will happen and 1.16 is the next target...having said that, i am flexible enough to change strategy should 1.2250 is reached

hk ab lazy 03:20 GMT August 1, 2004 Reply   
Raven, seems you are big USD bear...
I think a "US-repatriation" if seen, will be as bloody as what japs did in 1998.... 147 to 106 story....


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