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Forex Forum Archive for 08/06/2004

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hk ab lazy 23:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Laowen, 135.60 is a good place for s/t short eur/jpy.

but weekly chart is near its upper barrier.

So, short one more 135.60 with another limit 136.55 and put a heavy SAR above previous weekly high (136.68) will be my plan.

Beijing Laowen 21:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:01 GMT August 6, 2004 //

Be cautious to go against the major trend,mate. There is not always an obvious retracement after a strong trend begins. I wonder if your remember how eur/usd performed when it appreciated from 1.12 to 1.19 last year.

Livingston nh 21:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I am always grateful that the chief economists, analysts, strategists or whatever of XYZ bank or ABC brokerage firm offer their opinion or crystal ball observations - I might like to know what their employer's book looks like though // a "structural imbalance" will cause USD to weaken - sounds good to me but why is sterling not jumping against the EUR?? - seems a bit contrary to the perceived wisdom // Beware of MYTHS

syd 20:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Standard Chartered Bank expects recent USD gains to be reversed, paving way for gold to hit S$420/oz by year-end; "we expect structural imbalances to underpin further dollar weakness in 2004 as the market also focuses on slowing growth in 2005." Says EUR to continue to appreciate, "reaching $1.29" by end-2004

Livingston nh 20:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
US Consumer Credit growth continues to slow the Fed reported this afternoon - this is the cause of the slowdown in Personal consumption not oil and is more important at this point than employment figures // Cape Town has a good point (link) on the Financial Forum about the BLS stats - one of the PLUG factors that are used to develop employment numbers

Don't listen to the Siren Song of a moderate Fed - rates will be hiked // look at EUR/GBP - rate hikes are not helping sterling // USD/CAD will probably takeover the correction lead from the swissy

USA Biscuit Boy 20:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
It might pay to give Asia a chance to react to the payroll numbers and then think about buying dollars.....but I would have to say odds definately favor selling dollars on any retracement rather than trying to pick a short term top unless Greenspan removes acommodative language from the FOMC statement or hikes 50bp instead of 25bp (odds extremely low on both IMO).

syd 20:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
RBA semiannual monetary policy statement on Monday economists expecting hawkish tone to emerge

jerusalem sam 19:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
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ct david 19:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Any bottom pickers for usd/chf here? TIA.

Wien GD 19:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP: Woah ... that one looks indeed interesting ... thx.
Maybe we will see turnaround after sm closes ... looks like eur/usd follows sm.

Gen dk 19:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

wisconsin tim 19:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
or it will go up/flat into close as all the people who punted USD longs start to panic and close before weekend

dm ny 19:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
where is van gecko these days/ has anyody heard from him?

Dallas GEP 19:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GD, I would not short the pound at this time but I DO like eur/gbp short with 6690 stop

Wien GD 19:18 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Joined your last mentioned short ... already to late for short gbp/usd?

Dallas GEP 19:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your view Cael Buying USD on retracement opportunities tho is certainly not pointless. There are ALWAYS retracements and thus opporunities to make profits going bOTH ways. Fir example: USD/CAD has longed 60 pips since it's low printed.

Udine Cael 19:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP/ Today's action was not based on any terrorist activity and neither a rumour - the message is clear: the US economy is much more fragile than previously thought. There's not going to be any squaring off and hence, no need to take profits. I expect more US dollar weakness during the next Asian/European sessions. The current momentum would seem to target 1.2335/50 then 1.2415. Buying USD here is risky and quite pointless. Thus USD demand would be expected around 1.2415/1.2455 - the latter being a critcal level.

Time to leave. Happy weekend.

Bah Bahrain1 19:02 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds...Any one can tell me what was the high EURYEN and EURGBP for the day so far pls? GL

Dallas GEP 19:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Quite frakly, I am not sure wht there hasn't been more profit taking.

RE: eru/JPY To me eur/jpy is a wonderful short from 135.60 with stop @ 135.92. Should see 135.20 as a minimum. Not sure we will have enough time for this to work today tho.

Philadelphia caba 18:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
To Dallas GEP : your view EUR/JPY?

Wien GD 18:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP: I closed my positions against USD, because I expected some rate-hike related fear on monday before fed decision.
Now I'm also wondering why no profit taking in currencies, metals and pm-stocks? What do you feel about that?

Haifa ac 18:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:36 GMT //Good point.

Dallas GEP 18:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Actually Cael, I was just mentioning to a friend of mine that if there is at not least SOME profit taking before the day is over, I think we may gap down slightly over the weekend. But I still expect SOME profit taking for today but as faith would have it it probably will be 10 minutes AFTER my platform closes!! LOL I think the pair MOST likely to have some squaring out today before close would be Eur/Jpy.

Udine Cael 18:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Today's EUR/$ upmove is characterized by a lack of profit taking, suggesting that medium term traders will be aiming to take out the 1.2455/1.2570 area. A long term non-profit (hedge) account is still present above the mid 1.25s. Should be an interesting battle.

Dallas GEP 17:33 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim, did you get that 135.60 eur/jpy short????

USA Biscuit Boy 17:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Martin :) Have a good one mate.....next week will be interesting to see what Fed does and its impact on the market....my next round of betting will be selling the dollar at the 50 day ma on the index chart.....stop above. GW all.

Brooklyn mhi 17:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Just pulled up a Daily FX chart and it look ther as if 8:30 market was stil @ .7049 12:31 GMT it went till .7092 etc (off course I dont know if the brokers allowed traders to trade) My Firm Drove The charts up to .7178 and then pushed it down to .7053 the spread up and down respectivley .6990 .7098

Bruxville Jim 17:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 17:13 GMT // 10 pips for Aussie is approx the same as 25+ pips for GBP/YEN (in % terms). That's nonsense.

CA Clouy 17:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 17:10 GMT August 6, 2004
CA Clouy 17:08 GMT // 10 pips? You must be joking...

No Jim. and GBP/JPY is even higher. But eur/usd, usd/jpy, gbp/usd, and usd/swiss are all 3~4 pips spread, which are ok.

Bruxville Jim 17:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 17:08 GMT // 10 pips? You must be joking...

Dallas GEP 17:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
WEll JIM I amalready short eur/jpy from much lower levels. The stochs haven't quite turned down yet so I would try 135.60 short if seen.

Brooklyn mhi 17:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex I must complemet you that your upper barrier and lower barries were to the tee (except euro and swissy) TY 4 the trial

CA Clouy 17:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:54 GMT August 6, 2004
Clouy, Aussie stop is .7174

Thx GEP. but the spreads of aussie on my platform is 10pip round. tooooo high to take. Plus, never into this pair and know nothing about it. GL on ur trade.

looking at eur/usd again. :-) eur/jpy just printed new high.

Bruxville Jim 17:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY - 'going high'
EUR/GBP - short
Is it GBP/JPY going to explode?

Bruxville Jim 17:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what do you think of shorting EurYen?

Dallas GEP 17:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
In the next 30-45 minutes watch for some squaring out of at least SOME of these dollar shorts.

EUR/JPY going HIGH.....

Dallas GEP 16:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Shoryted Eur/GBP .6660

saloniko 2004 nk 16:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka..


Van Gecko is always Gr888 and Gold one..

Well... G.Wknd!

nk

GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
BISCUIT BOY...i will send you the box of famous australian tim tam biscuits i promised you as payment...lol...g/t

Dallas GEP 16:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Clouy, Aussie stop is .7174

Brooklyn mhi 16:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 16:40 GMT August 6, 2004
I understand. and respect everyone view. and today data was a toss of a coin. Even though some people "say" they new.

CA Clouy 16:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT August 6, 2004

I ran out the previous eur short with +8 pips. thx.

what's ur aussie s/l? TIA.

GL & GT.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
We must remember Martin's calls are for a longer time frame than most who post here so there is the conflict. For him a 200 pip blip on surprise data does not mean much (especially since he already made 400 pips on Greenie's statement 2 weeks ago). Coin flip today could have easily gone the other way although the shocking personal spending was a pretty big tell payrolls was not going to be good (but certainly not this bad either).

omar omar 16:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
market absorbing the shock it took at data time ... very much sideways and choppy ......

lahore eur/usd 16:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
in the strat this hour i wrote eur/usd may tuch 1.2253 and he tuch 1.2257 no body say this is good trade

sar jf 16:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
jim i dont vote here - i only work here - but bush got more problems now than he had at 8.29.59 am - gl/gt nice w.e

Brooklyn mhi 16:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
TO THE FORUM
I would like to know where brokers honored STOPS if any one had.

CA Clouy 16:40 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 16:24 GMT August 6, 2004

As what I know, the first price through which is above (below) the s/l would be used, from my broker. But combined with the risk management (1~2%), that shouldn't cause big problem. It would be a different story if the risk was already been stretch up too much.

Anyway, I still feel it's unfair to blame those ppl just because their opinion (forecast) are not right. imvho.

Bruxville Jim 16:40 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 16:35 GMT // Those +32K are the reason why you finally chose Mr.Cherry?

Bruxville Jim 16:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN // Thanks for keeping up the good work.

sar jf 16:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
personally i was dead wrong on eur thought we would see 1.15 but then again didnt expect such a shocking no. - but also from experience i dont run posns over numbers like those so my p/l doesnt look like a crater- now i got to figure how to cover for kerry winning the election - gl.gt

GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP....THE CHEQUE I PROMISED YOU FOR SAYING THAT IS IN THE MAIL!... LOL..G/T///on a serious note the aussie has been dragged up to that level and is not doing anything on its steam....looks like a duck out of water...has not moved at all like all week...good opportunity of a short for target of 7080..g/t

NYC YIPPEE 16:33 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

My timing is perfect ALWAYS..

Although, it is the direction that I have trouble with!

Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SCREW it that AUSSIE IS at a good place to short. I am going short here @ .7140. On a personal note, I have made ALOT of money in the past on MArtin's Aussie calls. I have had to hold some large stops to keep possies IN sometimes but the bottom line is I made money. NO ONE's timimg is PERFECT....it never happens that way...it never will. It takes alot of guts to make public calls on this forum and evryone IMO in earnest gives their BEST effort to be helpful. you can be right 10 times and wrong ONCE and THEN you catch grief for it. No reason for that at all....if anyone here thinks they are perfect then post away and the rest of us can just watch and profit.

Bruxville Jim 16:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for making fun out of today's situation... (to those who didn't end up in the black today)

Roumeli anka 16:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Three posts of interest the last two days was for me a warning do not buy USD today because big appetite leads to indigestion

Bruxville Jim 17:29 GMT August 4, 2004
Interesting comment from a trader:

Economists at HSBC say non-mfg ISM shows no jobs but booming growth! They say the index had "something for everyone" with the employment index having "MASSIVE downside risk for Friday`s payrolls something like 0K to 50K!"

van Gecko 09:08 GMT August 5, 2004

QDN composite index:
0-3 dead market, great time for snooze or top/bottom suntaning

Sing 06:44 GMT August 6, 2004
- c9's selling euro at market –

DC Greendogg 16:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
"Although incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated, a portion of the increase in recent months appears to have been due to transitory factors." In other words, we, the FOMC, believe that we have an edge in calling the energy markets.

lahore eur/usd 16:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
see only technical do no go what greenspain says and any other every one judge to see this

Brooklyn mhi 16:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 16:10 GMT August 6, 2004
Even the flow just turned, a reasonable s/l would manage today's loss.
Do the brokers honor a stop say @ 121 on euro when euro gaps up to 121.58 or 122?

Bruxville Jim 16:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Martin, I'm speaking seriously. Please be consistent. Long-term views don't change in minutes, do they?

Bruxville Jim 16:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Martin, the one involving 'stamps' will do:)

Bruxville Jim 16:22 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 16:10 GMT // I want to see Martin's posts when euro is up, not just when it's close to bottom, you know. That's it. Otherwise it feels like the situation has changed...
Martin, could you post a really bearish comment regarding euro right now, and next week as well? TIA.

Dublin Flip 16:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Actually we still haven't made it back to pre Humphrey Hawkins fairyland speech and testimony in FX markets.

Dublin Flip 16:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
For most of these markets we were here 2/3 weeks ago before Alan Greenspan's dementia had him making up stories over estimating growth, underestimating inflation and see June's bad data as being 290mio people glued to their sets to mourn Pres Reagan. The Bond market have again been buried by Greenspan. He's at a credibilty low point right now that will take alot to arrest.

Brooklyn mhi 16:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:12 GMT August 6, 2004
My Aussie Trade fell off the Cliff -100 pips (ouch!) ;-))

UAE Oil man 16:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Like most who remember only the last few girls, the market remembers only the last calls..

Well GW.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
BROOKLYN...you are spot on....martin is shortin at these levels which have not been seen for months...good trades

CA Clouy 16:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:58 GMT August 6, 2004
Concerning Euro Bears in the forum - I'm a bit frustrated.

Jim, may i say, lots of ppl on the forum gained $$$ pips when viies, martin, alimin... posted their bearish calls during last 2 weeks. Even the flow just turned, a reasonable s/l would manage today's loss. I don't think anything wrong with that. imvho.

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW, I would say around 1.8420/30 area

GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
BRUXVILLE JIMM..how misguided you are...we have been at the 12270 level for only an 3 hours in a log long while and you are already assuming a a trend has developed..Also just to correct you if you go back 6 months and read my posts i was calling for traders to short euro when it was at the 129 levels and every body was calling 130 plus ..also was shorting aussie at 79 when the concensus was 80 plus..have been following the overall general downtrend ever since for both currencies and this will be the theme until the end of the year,,,so please do not make generalisations before studying the facts...g/t

NYC YIPPEE 16:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 15:30 GMT August 6, 2004

Your size and volume will allow access to the interbank rate.

Bruxville Jim 16:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi// Or just waiting for 1.20 to urge to sell again... Hope he hedged or closed his shorts.

Dublin Flip 16:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Guys if some of the members are having a tough few hours I don't think it's too cool to "sink the slipper" when they are down. Bad Trading Karma and all that...

lahore eur/usd 16:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
now 1.2253 can tuch and up goes1.2329if break 1.2300

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim I go both ways (as far as FX goes!!! LOL). Bull bear I don't care as long as it is the RIGHT way!! LOL

LA fxnew 16:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
gep:

where do u think gbp/usd will close at?

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
BTW, my last comment was meant as a joke.

Brooklyn mhi 16:02 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:58 GMT August 6, 2004
Martin Either busy shorting @ higher Prices .or. just rethinking his stratgey.

saloniko 2004 nk 16:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening...

once we close today above 1.2265 B ready in my free opinion to travel on the high way...above 1.30

This 2004 was really tough year and a survive will be suxxes 88,88%

Thanks to George!
nk

Dallas GEP 15:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
You are right LAHORE, I sure it will go straight to 1.30 and NEVER ever retrace.

Brooklyn mhi 15:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Just testing maybe people cant see my messages. Made several inquiries but " no one RESPONDED"

Bruxville Jim 15:58 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Concerning Euro - I guess we are set to go up step by step (perhaps to 1.235/240) while sufficiently many traders take long positions on dips and breakouts (so that sharks can load up fresh shorts).
Concerning Euro Bears in the forum - I'm a bit frustrated. When we are at short term bottoms, they actively urge to sell. While when euro picks up a bit, they tend to disappear (e.g. while we are above 1.22, odds are low that you'll see Martin posting his emotional posts). An ugly phenomenon.

lahore eur/usd 15:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
there is no sell in eur/usd

Dallas GEP 15:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I don't know CLOUY, may not have enough time or voulume to do that TODAY on sub-1.2200's. I think it will close around 1.2220-1.2230 and there IMO is the potential for a small gap DOWN over the weekend.

UAE Oil man 15:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Lots of stops and last die hard bulls throwing the towels.

UAE Oil man 15:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
It is very possible and 1.2360 is very close now.

nouman eur/usd 15:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd if brek 1.2273 then it may go 1.2300 and 27

CA Clouy 15:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT August 6, 2004
It IS risky CLOUY...it is trying to top pick

Thx GEP. I just felt the up momentum should not keep any longer. But, who knows... Anyway, do u feel it is possible to break even .2300 before NY close? TIA.

GL & GT

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
It IS risky CLOUY...it is trying to top pick....I also shorted MORE eur/jpy @ 134.97

CA Clouy 15:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:32 GMT August 6, 2004
Sold EUR/USD @ 1.2265

I thought not much ppl like me who still has faith in selling eurs now. Glad to see GEP is there, too. :-)

GL & GT.

Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
NL, 1.2230 target and 2290 stop...could bREAK low bELOW 1.22 before close

CA Clouy 15:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Another fresh bout of broad USD sales is taking place. A US investment house has been selling [USD/JPY], the pair falling below 110.00 again. [EUR/USD] returned back to 1.2265.

What a day. Seemed eur/usd Bulls won the battle. Anyone is taking possie on this pair now? View is appreciated.

perrie como 15:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
another yukos?? and monday market crash??

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A new filing in a shareholder class-action lawsuit against Halliburton Co. contends that the world's No. 2 oilfield services company and several top executives intentionally engaged in "serial accounting fraud" from 1998 to 2001, court papers show....

Goes (NL) B747 15:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:32 GMT August 6, 2004

s/l & target please

tia & gt

Dallas GEP 15:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold EUR/USD @ 1.2265

LA fxnew 15:30 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know where to trade with interbank rate? not market maker rate?

UAE Oil man 15:29 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
that might also open the doors for a stronger yen vs $ for the close.

lnd 15:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
in a fast market when everyone else is not making a straight price then the price they make is the price you get. it is the best price as there are no other prices available. you can say that this was available at such time but at the moment you wanted the price it was not so their price is it. it might not be fair but that is the way the market works. as my boss always told me 'they need em, and they need em now'. gl & gt.

perrie como 15:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
this one's funny

To put stop-loss orders in perspective, imagine that you and your neighbor own two-year-old cars of the same model with a Blue Book value of $10,000. Your neighbor posts a sign in his yard advertising the sale of his car, and the two of you sit on his porch drinking lemonade while awaiting prospective buyers. The first person to stop and look at the car offers $9,500, but your neighbor declines the offer. The next buyer offers only $8,500. Your neighbor declines again, but now he seems disappointed and worried by the lowball offers. The third visitor offers only $7,500. Your neighbor becomes distressed and tells you that he is going to sell for $7,500 because his car price is "crashing" and he needs to "get out" while he can.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/040806/114020_2.html

UAE Oil man 15:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Yukos flash , government seize is illegal..might see a dip more in oil.

Brooklyn mhi 15:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 15:08 GMT August 6, 2004
what time does fix related buying start and end

hk ab lazy 15:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
close dlr/jpy 110, nice w/e all.
phew,...exciting week.
reload next Mon.

Ldn 15:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD & Euro/USD Dips Supported By Fix-related Buying

Bruxville Jim 15:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Business is business. But still customer is the king.

Sydney gvm 15:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
wow I wonder what it feels like to be leveraged long US assets (real estate, shares etc) and massively in debt and at war - makes 1929 look like a picnic

USA Biscuit Boy 14:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim if they filled sell orders at 0.6697 then fair enough....still sucks but excusable under the conditions as long as they too were willing to buy at these levels.

Sydney Alimin 14:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ok calling the day now...have a nice w/e everybody....enjoy the holiday, winning or losing is just part of the game..
next week will be interesting indeed to see what the fed will say to us..till then..ciao

Brooklyn mhi 14:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 14:44 GMT August 6, 2004
what r your barrier for aud/usd tia

USA Biscuit Boy 14:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas the big question is did anyone else besides your broker get to sell eur/gbp at those lofty levels? What was the bid on this pair at that time (was 0.6702 offered the result of say a 100 pip spread??). Well if the bid was say 0.6698 and nobody else got to sell here then I would ask some serious questions.

UAE Oil man 14:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia you are talking about stradling the market with options , it wouldnt have paid that much with the vols out here, I guess a negative R/R trade.

Melbourne Qindex 14:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that the market will pullback and consolidate around the barrier at 1.2159 // 1.2211.


Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT August 1, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is also the key quantized level and is located at 1.1952. Speculative selling will increase if the market can penetrate through a projected supporting range of 1.1900 - 1.1921. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.1849. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.1746/ 1.1798. The upper barrier is located at 1.2159 // 1.2211. The market rhythm is represented by 103 pips and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.1849 - 1.2262. (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.2211 ).


Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.1746* // 1.1798 - 1.1849* - 1.1900 - (1.1952)* -1.2004 - 1.2056* - 1.2107 - 1.2159* // 1.2211 - 1.2262* ...

U.K. J.B. 14:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:55

Thks vm just noticed your post i did not mean to ignore you. As for the market now, intend staying out no reason to enter again. Will have a good look Sunday night as i feel there maybe some value out there. Gut feel Euro looking toppy dolls/yen seems to be basing . All the best nice w/e

Bruxville Jim 14:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
c~m~c had a 0.6657/60 high after data on the pair.

melbourne farmacia 14:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - Gbp/Usd should top out on tuesday based on yesterday's cycle period....

and re post from this am

Just a idea: if anyone benefits from straddling the market on NFP release... how about donating some or all profits to the Red Cross Sudan appeal....

Bruxville Jim 14:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

Brooklyn mhi 14:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim
Is the aud/usd S=a=x=o spiked up to 71.78 then back down to 69.9 but it was only for bid not ask too cost me a 100 pips

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim, they have an off-market feed, THEY KNOW IT, they won't admit it, and they stand by it EVERY time.

Philadelphia caba 14:40 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 14:35 GMT August 6, 2004
well Just shorted aud/usd and not easy to get pips but the real culprit was the usd/nzd

your view on $/nzd?

Dallas GEP 14:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
OK guys MORE examples: Today HIGH on eur/jpy shows 135.90 high on EUR/JPY. LOW of 1.3076 on USD/CAD!!!!

Bruxville Jim 14:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, it's common for censored to react to news in different speed for different pairs. Commonly, eur/usd moves a couple of seconds faster. This way, eur crosses make fancy spikes. Of course, they don't do this if there aren't sufficiently many stop-loss orders to trigger. Sorry to say this, but that's the way they work. Either leave limit entry orders (they will finance these by triggered stops, I guess) or stay flat on crosses ahead of news.

Dublin Flip 14:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
My guys has .6657 as high FYG

Brooklyn mhi 14:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
well Just shorted aud/usd and not easy to get pips but the real culprit was the usd/nzd

prague viktor 14:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy :hi,i think they will keep on hold or do u see rate hike this timeG/L

Calcutta Vikram 14:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Yes, Van JV...........I was Long EURO at 1.2055 and I squared up at 1.2056 15-20 minutes ahead of the data. Not bad, what do you say? C'est la vie

SanFrancisco tg 14:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Gep - showing 6648 and 6652 on two others. Cant imagine how the 6702 can be honored.

Bris TW 14:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thats right GEP Ive complained to the authorities a few times about the famous Ref/fxc pair of crooks that fell on deaf ears as usual. Its the first time Ive had trouble with * tho as I usually find them to be a pip either side of EBS. Im flat for now and out of euro at 1.2248 and cable 1.8435 that was luckily enough to be filled as soon as I saw the sa-x-xo ticker move.

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
TW...that just burns my asss... How in the hellll can you have that much discrepancy in a LIVE feed??? You can't!!!!

Van jv 14:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Old wisdom--be square ahead of data ....there were some warnings of low employment.......

KL KL 14:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Back now with KFC....yummy...gobble gobble....hmmm DOW ...gbp usd short limit adjust to 1.8455 sl 25 above...how come no more power so fast and eur limit stay the same . Well fwiw I think Dow will give a grave stone doji tonight just to suck more bull in today and monday....looking to short DOW nearer to yesterday high if possible...look bad numbers means low interest are here to stay...so a bit of fuel for DOW and some short covering later....reality will set in sometime early next week...

GENEVA FHR 14:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
After what happened this afternoon i think a lot of peole are over
confident about their brokers or their platform thinking
that they can always get a price or get filled at their stop.
I want to remind them that forex market is an non-regulated market.Spread in the euro at 3 pips or better are the lowest spread seen for years.If any event or panic starts you will see
spreads of 15pips to even 1 or 2 big figures.That what happens a few years back.Keep that in mind and good week-end

USA Biscuit Boy 14:22 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Well just like that dollar index back below its 50 day ma coming in around 88.8 now. Now it is simply a matter of waiting to see if this is a small bad patch for the US economy as Mr. Greenspan has stated or something more serious to be concerned about. Very interesting FOMC ahead now.....going to be a hard call for the Fed on another rate hike this month......do these guys get a preview of July's data I wonder to help them with the decision?

Ldn pm 14:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP - high for Eur/Gbp on Reuters 02 platform was 0.6653. Printed at 0.6655 but told not sure that one was a correct hit - hope that helps. High on EBS - but not as active as Reuters for prices - was 0.6650. Hope it helps

Bris TW 14:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 14:16 GMT
No dramas mate. Im sure Sky Satellite has the Bloomberg channel for ya over there. Sorry about ol leeds dropping back a div bud. ;)

Dallas GEP 14:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
oK thanks guys....those guys at F_X_C_M must have been hungary today

leeds jb 14:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
TW
thanks mate, i lived 20 years in perth till 2000,
I WILL BE BACK!

hk ab lazy 14:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nt// 200 pips min range.

Sydney Alimin 14:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: no worries, i still need to travel back to sydney next wednesday so won't have many plans until i find some stability there...hate this little hassle of travelling back and forth myself but i would like to see some price action on monday and tuesday first, as they always say friday's action doesn't make a trend, this could be a bull trap as mentioned by mckegg and other analyst (cant remember his name)

Bris TW 14:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
.6654 here GEP

Brooklyn mhi 14:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
S-A-X-O showing high bid .6649

Calcutta Vikram 14:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Euro-Yen is probably ranged between 135-133 for several days to come. Shortlived 80-90 poin spikes on either side may have to be allowed for.

Question.....is it just me, or has the Forum become slow to load?

hong kong nt 14:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 14:01 -- does 300pip weekly range qualify "typical summer exaggeration"?

Brooklyn mhi 14:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
second bounce off 9850

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I show 6649 as high on ONE platform on EUR/GBP and on another I am showing 6697 high on the same F+cking pair!!! What WAS high guys???

Melbourne Qindex 14:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : 44-day cycle barriers are as follow :-


... // 1.2476 - 1.2525 - 1.2572 - 1.2630 // ...

Brooklyn mhi 14:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
first bounce off 9850

Bris TW 14:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 14:04 GMT
Sure I use sattelite TV with the Bloomberg channel. Its only lagged 4 seconds from the US and Im in Australia. I only use it for data.

Brooklyn mhi 14:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dow cant find bottom approaching 9850 think that qindex had some 9700+

Riga RIA 14:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Viktor hi , think very possible, now first my tgtr 31.45 and than 31.20 , seems 31.80/85 hold agn......GL

hk ab lazy 14:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy short first positional entry 135 done.

Global-View 14:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
There was just a long post about institutional desks that seems to have disappeared. If it was deleted, it was inadvertent but it wasn't done on this end so we have to investigate. Apologies.

Brooklyn mhi 14:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 14:01 GMT August 6, 2004
r your numbers still intact for all pairs?

pd cumino 14:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Someone has a view on EUR JPY? TIA

prague viktor 14:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Riga RIA :Hi the cnb the last m sold 68m euro,still a lot to sell so i think we are going to the 30,8 or to the 31,2 level G/L

leeds jb 14:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
i dont know about you guys but my news streamer for non farm payrolls came in at 13.33.............by that time i was frozen by at least 1 minut. any body got quicker news than tommo`s

Melbourne Qindex 14:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 13:51 GMT August 6, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my 3-month projection profile is 1.1969 - 1.2272 and the mid-point reference is 1.2121. The odds are in favour of a pullback.


... // 1.1969* - 1.2045 - 1.2121 - 1.2197 - 1.2272* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 14:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is pulling back to my weekly cycle barrier at 1.3092 // 1.3155.

hk ab lazy 14:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
martin// yup, lose a battle.
it's ok, didn't take eur short as pix moved too fast after NFP. no need for decision almost.

typical summer exaggeration.

oilman, looks like you have made up decision on next eur move to the north side.

ldn 14:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
European funds have been selling US 5-yr bonds and buying into the European 5-yr area, says dealer. View is if US economy is slowing, the Fed can afford to be less aggressive and the ECB has fewer reasons to contemplate tightening

Goes (NL) B747 14:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:56 GMT August 6, 2004

please share with me the cs (chicken stealing) plans.

tia & gt

perrie como 14:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Economists, however, look more closely at the payroll figure as a better barometer of the health of the jobs market. The 32,000 net jobs added in July represented the smallest gain in hiring since December and followed a revised gain of just 78,000 in June, even less than previously reported. May's payrolls also were revised down to show a gain of 208,000.


"Employers got cold feet," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "Employers just don't have the confidence in the economy that we need to sustain the kind of economic growth that we've seen."

Riga RIA 13:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
usdsgd good capp 1.7250/60 ress agn n push to 1.7150 with my tgt 1.7070/60 near term , keep my short n think sell more after break 1.7070.....GL

Riga RIA 13:58 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
usdzar shaprly drop after payrolls to 6.16 but few good bids remain here ard 6.16/15 with stops below 6.1200 , offers ahead 6.20/23 now....Yesterday had number of interbank types selling dollars first thing but importer interest saw it off the lows before the start of the NY session saw real money sellers pushing it back down again.



SA holiday on Monday so most of the locals preferring to keep it tidy today as well.

Ldn 13:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD: Stops Building Under 1.3070

Sydney Alimin 13:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: crap, is my internet frozen or what? are prices moving on your screen? at the moment euro is 1.2248 on my fxtrek chart but 1.2235 on my trading platform.....yup i should trust your crystal ball now hehe, you must have made lots of money today then! congrats!...i feel like stealing some chickens tonight...but i think liquidity is the problem here..blah....oh well...full action next week

Riga RIA 13:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EURPLN hold very choppy ranhe 4.43/39 now , sell now prefer - my med term tgt still ard 4.3450/3350 , best sell place ard 4.44/46 now.....GL

NYC YIPPEE 13:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow
Prices after NFP
1.2085
1.2120
1.2185
1.22

Tuff fill, but to be honest I bet there are worse stories today.

Bris TW 13:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
A lack of liquidity on the machines has ensured that price action after the data was messy, with dealers reporting an immediate move to 1.2120 in [EUR/USD] before the trend line was broken to the topside at 1.2150. The market has since gapped to 1.2250 area, where it has stalled, as players reassess the outlook from here. The market has covered 200pips in pretty short order with gaps along the way, that some woill see necessary to fill before the next upleg happens. With banks still filling stops from lower down however there remains very little supply of Eur/Usd in the market, and as such a dip back to 1.2180-00 could find another layer of dip buyers. Eur/Yen and Eur/Gbp are also both attracting demand and are adding support to Eur/Usd.
(Source censored)

Goes (NL) B747 13:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:50 GMT August 6, 2004

do you remember the 1.2200 call ?! - it came 48HRS later!

gt

Moscow Y 13:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, thanks, but I am interested in the first tradable price after the numbers

Goes (NL) B747 13:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:50 GMT August 6, 2004

strange, first price on my platform is 1.2164...please explain me how this works.

btw, at least you did something good for you tooth :-)

tia & gt

Melbourne Qindex 13:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Riga RIA 13:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/HUF dropped below 250 level yesterday and was further strengthened by the good auction results and better than expected

budget figures. FX market expected to be quiet again today - ahead of next weeks batch of macroeconomic data - and is expected to

remain in 248-249 range.

Ldn 13:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Y I have high 1.2268 Euro

Sydney Alimin 13:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: i had my order waiting there for several days sell at 1.2108 and stop loss put just above last friday's high 1.2128...oh well -20 pips....should have listened to that little voice this afternoon to cancel that order and wait for the reaction to the nfp....now i am looking for something to blame..yeah should blame my tooth!

pd cumino 13:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Someone has a view on EUR JPY? TIA

SPb Mike 13:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

Many thx frnds, appreciate yr help.
Have a nice weekend!

Moscow Y 13:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone here trading through Ce*M*Ce been filled on euro at better than 1.2220? I am going to file a former comlaint to FSA. I feel I was just been robbed for 30K

Sydney Alimin 13:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: dunno what's wrong with my bloody internet too....my fxtrek charts still showed 1.2055 when i got home and that was the first thing i saw on moving my mouse and then switched to my execution screen, censored euro 1.2235 ....almost got a heart attack LOL

Goes (NL) B747 13:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
alimin,


which price (s/l) ???

gt

Dublin Flip 13:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Maybe 1.2220 is a bit rich and shuld be 1.2190 but they can hardly make up liquidty from no-where. I'm not trying to maek you feel bad but I'm confident the trader who was no doubt watching only stops (due to the tight ranges of late) at the other end is down millions on a day like this.

perrie como 13:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
smells of sort of that forecasted mid august crash
eur/usd might go 133 as dollar yen round 100 very easily
lock on your seat belts, this market is ready to fly sirs

KL KL 13:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
busy day set short limit gbpusd at 1.8460 and eurusd at 1.2267 both sl 25 above ...need to go out and get kentucky bucket ...too hungry now. Need to deal with Dow later

Sydney Alimin 13:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: yes i am here just got home from dentist (again $#%[email protected]#^ ouchhh) and wowwwww euro 1.2235 hahaha nice, got order filled in and stopped out straightaway :)

lnd 13:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
if you have prob with platform you should also have a spread bet account. this means you can hedge or trade even if your platform is down. dont want to miss out on those pips.

warsaw tms 13:40 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
moscow, bought at 1,2190 after figures

houston st 13:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
PETE -- that would be fine...mine went down - again - right after the number came out...just got it back up and running to see my eur/usd length still intact (and ready to take $$$)...I'll watch for your email....good luck today.

Tor Pumpkin 13:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SPb Mike, here is the price action in cable off of Reuters:
12:29:59 1.8265
12:30:00 1.8300
12:30:02 1.8279
12:30:02 1.8279
12:30:03 1.8300
12:30:04 1.8279
12:30:04 1.8285
12:30:04 1.8285
12:30:05 1.8279
12:30:05 1.8279
12:30:06 1.8270
12:30:06 1.8290
12:30:08 1.8300
12:30:09 1.8292
12:30:09 1.8315
12:30:10 1.8315
12:30:11 1.8340
12:32:21 1.8455

Beijing Laowen 13:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
What's the matter? Was off the computer for 2.5 hours and the prices have moved so much!

st. pete islander 13:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Is it okay to ask Jay for your email .... we seem to have even more in common .... unless you have a platform that is up and running ... I don't.

Moscow Y 13:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends, what was the first tradable price in eurusd after the numbers? My broker filled my 1.2080 buy order at 1.2220, said so was the gap.

Ada, MI G $%& F T 13:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
G $%& F T -- These guys better get their @&*( together. Perhaps they can tone down their ads, as s/ #@%& X C M and a lot of these other retail wannabes. Even worse than royally failing twice this week for their custies, they are exclusive provider of FX data to T R A D E S T A T I O N. Down for ~ 6 hours on 4rth and down right after NFP, great job!!!!

Udine Cael 13:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SPb Mike 13:28 GMT
GBP/USD low bid 1.8214 at 12.30 GMT
GBP/USD low bid 1.8203 at 13.15 GMT

melbourne farmacia 13:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SPb Mike 13:28 GMT August 6, 2004
Might help - bid & low
08.30 1.8216 / 08.31 1.8216 / 08.32 1.8275 / 08.33 1.8279

houston st 13:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Pete -- yes, I'm here....

Ldn 13:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Analysts said that the weakness in July job creation will join a host of other factors that are seen as a negative for the dollar. "This creates a heightened concern about the economy, which comes on top of the already existent headwinds of a large current account deficit, fear of terror as we head into the Olympics, renewed fighting in Iraq, and rising oil prices impacting consumption," said Jeremy Fand, director of foreign exchange at WestLB in New York.
"We're going to look at a significant fall in the dollar over the next week to test the lower end of the ranges," said Fand, who suggested that the euro could test the $1.25 level as soon as next week. In the wake of the report, the dollar's drop brought it to a new two-week low versus the euro and yen.
Fand said that the market is likely to start to build short positions in the dollar immediately, restoring some of the dollar bearish bets that got crushed when Greenspan inspired a dollar rally in July. The yen was able to advance despite a 2.6% drop reported for June household spending, continued strength in oil prices, and a 0.80% drop in the Nikkei, which caused it to close under 11000 points for the first time since May 25.
Reuters

KL KL 13:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
OK took profit for gbpusd short +39 pips and eurusd short + 30 pips...sorry not that gutsy as you may think....now have 69 pips to fight another day....still in hit and run mode...

st. pete islander 13:33 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
houston st ..... are you in the house?

Goes (NL) B747 13:29 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
alimin, are you around???

Brooklyn mhi 13:29 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 12:53 GMT August 6, 2004
Saw your question "Sa"? What is high on aud/usd from C.MC

ny amc 13:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
kl....kl........nice job on your ballsy trades...good for you

Goes (NL) B747 13:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 13:26 GMT August 6, 2004

no chance...if they will accept 1.2090 please let me know...please!!!

gt

SPb Mike 13:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I'm still lost :((

Could u pls look for EBS or Reuters low for the GBP after 12:30gmt (i'm interested 12:30-12:31) TIA

EUROPE M 13:27 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
1,2190 was traded in interbank for info

Sydney 13:27 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Strong Buying From Asia Underpins EUR

leeds jb 13:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
unable to log on. had a stoplmit at euro/us 1.2190, will this be honoured when the system is restored
also could not get through on phone.

KL KL 13:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Nicely come down now ...also moved sl to + 5 pips profit for a bucket of kentucky for both eur and gbp short......

Goes (NL) B747 13:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
anyway, like it looks now DOW will test 9.7K and below - means that EUR/USD still can go over 1.2310 today...


gt

Ldn 13:22 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Cheers everyone for gold data

GOLD COAST MARTIN 13:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
HK..NT...Stamp collecting until next week....data was bad ... lost battle,,,but will win war...welcome to the summer of volatility where a downtrend will be dominant.... good trades to all......

Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/cad from 1.3095

SanFrancisco tg 13:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
yup sorry, 401 not 410

PRague IB 13:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I am quite new to here, how offten does it happen that the system colapses like now? For how long usually? Why is it? Is it locale or global colapse? .... sorry for stupid questions....

SA Pat 13:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
gold 401

SanFrancisco tg 13:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold 410.00 and 399.50

Goes (NL) B747 13:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
every game got rules...no smart FX traders, just very smart platform developers...!!!


gt

CA Clouy 13:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
It seemed the golden rule shows its effect again:

never take risks bigger than what you can afford...

One of my friends just phoned me that he was liquidated 'cuz the huge hike of eur/usd. He adjusted his s/l higher before he left for work this morning to prevent being hit. Sadly... it was. 12 lots with -201 pips ... He was so optimistic about $ and put too much.

I hope this doesn't happen on ppl on this board.

GL for all.

Spotforex NY 13:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
spot gold 400.00 now

high today 401.20

KL KL 13:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Stop complaining and start shorting .... by tuesday next week things will change again depending on where you are. currency cannot keep going up without retracement and may even make other central bank cut rates from now on...think about it and what it does for US $...

Spotforex NY 13:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Zorro - do you complie the payroll numbers???

Touche

Bris TW 13:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
have we seen 1.2275 highs in euro yet? That was my target for today.

Eilat Dolphin 13:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Oil Man. The $ woke up with a scorpion.

Ldn 13:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone got the spot gold price tia.

UAE Oil man 13:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
They are probably ringing for margin calls Bris tw too their loosing customer pool for awhile.

UAE Oil man 13:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Well the Gbpjpy super oil man's attractor is here.

Off for the weekend, GL .

nyc sa 13:11 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hi all good traders , back from holidays .Farmacia or anyone trading cable could u plz post levels ?

Ldn 13:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
When the change in payrolls is expressed as a percentage, there was only 0.02% increase in July . At the same time, the unemployment rate was 5.543%, meaning it was just barely revised lower from 5.600% in June.

Bris TW 13:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Too true Oily but I just want my fooken broker to switch back on their bloody server! Cannt get through to the dealing desk either. Its a conspiracy I tell you.

UAE Oil man 13:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Everyone is wrong at and everything just above 50% of right calls is already enough to make lots of money.
In anycase don't spend your pips looking for tops/bottom on a friday.

Bris TW 13:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sure we know Martins attitude. Bull or Bear I dont believe it. Just trade the flows and your never wrong ;)

KL KL 13:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I just shorted gbpusd at 1.8450 s/l 30 pips abovehit my top channel also eurusd at 1.2267 sl 25 pips above. I call it over reaction...until sir Allen speak. we shall see how long this joy last. Also I subscribe to US sneeze world catch SARS flu..gl gt

USA Biscuit Boy 13:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys....dollar index at 90 still capping and after terrible US personal spending and payrolls numbers still looks good for now. However one slow month in the US does not make a trend although July was pretty bad if anecdotal evidence is to be believed. Still 25bp rate hike still in the cards.....might pay to lock in profits....good weekend all :)

U.K. J.B. 13:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 21:04 GMT August 5, 2004
Been out for a while good r/r trade sold dolls/yen 111.78 tar 110.85 s/l 112.20

Positioned closed 110..00

Gone fishing......

prague viktor 13:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
bc thanks for ur answer G/T

Ldn 13:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane, BC is more diplomatic

hong kong nt 13:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW -- up or down, right or wrong don't matter but altitude..

Gen dk 13:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SPb Mike 13:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thx guys!
Could u name yr feed, pls?

Antwerp Tom 13:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
€/$ will probably close around 1.23 tonight imvho

Bris TW 13:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 12:56 GMT
Come on now dont kick old Martin I know its fun but its not nice you know ;)
Would you kick BC if data went the other way?

melbourne farmacia 12:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Retail orders should be done now.. GT all

hong kong nt 12:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 12:56 GMT -- lucky to collect enough cheap stamps from Euro, Swiss and Aussie in time. good trades to you..

van Gecko 12:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
QDN @ zero....
vely quite..


GENEVA FHR 12:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SPB Mike i have 75 at 30.42 however with these markets
may have been lower

lugano f. 12:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
stopped out at .6645 ... :-((
shorted again eur at 1.2257

Bruxville Jim 12:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY short - got stopped out at 203.45
+50 pips (-rollover)

hong kong nt 12:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
MARTIN -- Are you on your way to stationary shop buying stamp collection album?

sgp sp 12:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi nt..

How's ur stamp collection coming along?

gl & gt

CA Clouy 12:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SPb Mike 12:47 GMT August 6

I guess u just rocked high in ur acc. Sterlings was .8447 high.

though I can't see now 'cuz my platform frozen.

Surabaya Medallion 12:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh

Yes, but the unemployed must be paid $400/week which would be a burden to taxpayers. But Bush has cut too much taxes so the Fed printing machine should come in to wrap up things around.

slv sam 12:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 21:04 GMT August 5, 2004
Been out for a while good r/r trade sold dolls/yen 111.78 tar 110.85 s/l 112.20


very well done J.B congrat.

lnd 12:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:51 GMT. you the man.

Bruxville Jim 12:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
c-m-c no problem, finally my 111.40 short appeared on the screen:)) No slippage of a single pip!

LONDON savage 12:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ahhhh up and running again

Dublin Flip 12:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Well played over the past few weeks BC.
Thanks ofr your views mate.

lDN 12:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jobs number is just about as bad as it could be, with growth of +32K extremely close to nothing at all and practically statistically insignificant. What's more, June and May were revised down. Far from assuring that June was an aberration, the July data absolutely call into question the nature of the apparent recovery in the labor market. This could have implications for the presidential elections and will likely cause some economists to question their certainty about Fed policy this year REUTERS.

shanghai bc 12:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

VIKTOR-Good evening..Euro
/Usd fell from 1.24 largely thanks to Sir Alan's professed optimism which is a wishful thinking so far..I still believe "buying anything below Eur/usd 1.20 is as good as money in the bank for the whole year" roughly in 1.20-1.25 range ..Good trades.

Milano CS 12:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EU Zorro, well done.
GOLD COAST MARTIN, any comments?

Detroit Limey 12:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
cee m s

Detroit Limey 12:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
censored

SF Lux 12:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
good luck getting through the dealing desk

Bris TW 12:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
G-F-T

SPb Mike 12:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hello frnds!
Need yr help!
I was done @8250 (buy GBPUSD), time 12:30:07. After that I've put SL @BE (8250), wich was done @12:30:42 :((
Could u check a possibility of such action with yr feed, pls.
TIA

LONDON savage 12:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks ST pete lucky i moved my stop up to lock in some $$$ before it froze, pisses me off this is the second time this week

Bris TW 12:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
How many retail platforms went down then to protect themselves? censored and Refc0 for me has. At least the euro buys were filled the second data was out BUT now they wont let me place stops or take ANY profit! GRRrr

Livingston nh 12:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Let me take the other side of this - Persons employed number expanded faster than new entrants in the Labor market (as long as this number continues to expand y/y at better than 1.5% a problem in the economy is unlikely to surface) -- the Fed is now focused on inflation, employment is not its concern at this point so interest rates will continue to rise // any continued slowdown in the growth of Consumer credit is more significant at this point than NFP

st. pete islander 12:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, Savage ... it did.

UAE Oil man 12:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Nice show,particularly in the bonds market.
Nice clean break out of the 1.2125 which was one of the levels to watch and follow,so a directional move is very possible from here.

Belgrade Knez 12:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
got this info from a friend yesterday night, should listen to him:

"I think people are a bit too optomistic on those employment numbers. Construction work around here is very slow for this time of year. There are some saying that the employment numbers should go over 250K, but it won't be for good jobs, maybe Mcdonalds opened a few stores, or Walmart"

"hard to have a good jobs report when carpenters are off during the week when they should be doing overtime.

LONDON savage 12:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
G F T

LONDON savage 12:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hello is anyone using censored has there platform also frozen

Bruxville Jim 12:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
MAMMA MIA!!!:))) Nice Show!

Antwerp Tom 12:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, even Manuel would say 1.19 off the menu GL GT

lugano franco 12:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
look like at 1.2240 to sell now! stop at 1.23 for a fast profit

prague viktor 12:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
this it was for shanghai bc

B.A. BOCA 12:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
looks like the bobby fischer news had more of an impact than i thought..

prague viktor 12:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
are we inside ur range 1,20-1,22 or the new is 1,20-1,25 thanks

Kaunas 12:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
heh..
i feel sorry for tallin viies and other dollar bulls.

Ldn 12:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Plunges On Weak July Employment Data
looks like rate hikes are as Basil fawlty would say
Off the Menu

Surabaya Medallion 12:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Lol, maybe playing Roulette is one of my hidden talent after all. Seriously, I think we still need to be careful on Tuesday.

shanghai bc 12:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

Sir Alan was over-optimistic like a politician on election campaign trail.

Togliatti Ant 12:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thats was cool, 100 pips in 1 sec

lugano franco 12:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
as before go short again on eur/chf and eur/gbp at apr. 1.5370 and .6625 stops at 20 pips look for 1.5325/25 and .6550/75

slv sam 12:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
never go gainst euro from now on ;( GT

Dallas GEP 12:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Limted out USD/JPY shorts @ 111.00 +39

Ldn 12:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

US June Unemployment Rate Unrevised At 5.6%
US June Payrolls Revised To +78K From +112K

US July Overall Workweek Up 0.1 Hour to 33.7 Hours

US Manufacturing Payrolls +10K; Svc-Producing +14K

US July Average Hourly Earnings Up $0.05 To $15.70

US July Unemployment Rate 5.5%; Consensus 5.6%

US July Nonfarm Payrolls +32K; Consensus +215K

lugano f. 12:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
closed at 1.5320 and .6595

bombay A A 12:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
WHAT WAS JOBS DATA

GENEVA FHR 12:30 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
NFP + 32

Dallas GEP 12:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED cad shorts at BE

Gen dk 12:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano frank 12:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
moving stop to 1.5380 and .6626...

Goes (NL) B747 12:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
it is +/- 240K area...IMVHO

gt

slv sam 12:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SOLD euro at 1.2060 stop 1.2125 target 1.1960.GT

B.A. BOCA 12:18 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
the USD may also be hit by the news that Bobby Fischer wants to renounce his citizenship..

Goes (NL) B747 12:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
only MA5 is USD positive...

gt

hk ab lazy 12:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
one eur stop taken.

hk ab lazy 12:11 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
also stop sells at 1.2043.

hk ab lazy 12:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
aud looks v. tense.

B.A. BOCA 12:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
good day all...payrolls will probably be another wild number like all of them this year. biggest surprise would be a straight 220 reading..

watch your necks when the headfakes come....remember we are still trading in august...closing levels might be the same
gl

hk ab lazy 12:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
If my stops got hit, I will put my new eur short limit at 1.2145, 1.2190.

Togliatti Ant 12:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
if we go under 1.20 after data, stops will bring us to 1.19 mb even under

GOLD COAST MARTIN 12:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
HK ..AB...Thank you quietly......g/l

Togliatti Ant 12:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion , you better never play russian roulette frnd

Livingston nh 12:02 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
viies - fwiw (I missed last month's number by more than 120K) - the NFP will not exceed 300K (IMVVHO) - my guess 184K - upward revision of last month maybe +18K // whatever the number watch the SPIN

Surabaya Medallion 12:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I've decided to put my bet on Euro. Boy, what kind of Russian Roulette game we have for today?

eur lg 11:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
While I'm reluctant to have an outright usd pos through a wildcard number like this, I will carry short eur gbp and long eur jpy. Logic being (and I know its nothing new) high oil, falling nasdaq bad for the yen. High rates, high oil, and possible Citi-Barclays merger makes gbp a strong asset ccy. Low nfp number and the pos should do ok, high nfp hopefully won't punish too bad. Good Luck.

hk ab lazy 11:58 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
martin// eur--> a place in between 60-70 region.
Now, squeezing time (0.5 hr) before the announcement, gl.

112, was missed together with the 135....sigh.

hk ab lazy 11:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
oilman// feng shui...

GOLD COAST MARTIN 11:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
HK..AB LAZY..Please tell me where your have quietly placed your stops and your limits on your euro shorts...reason i ask because i have similar positions.....g/t g/l

Tallinn viies 11:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 11:50 - plan to cover half before NFP numbers or maybe my take profit order filles before numbers

UAE Oil man 11:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Ab, you can shout you are sell a pair as with your position amounts i don't think any whales will look for you..

hk ab lazy 11:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
will tighten the stop prior NFP to 60-70 region.

aud to .7040 and nzd at b/e .6458 for 2 positions.

That eur/jpy was missed by 15 pips, great pity!

hk ab lazy 11:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone,

seems all people are ready now.

viies, watch show tonight after exit at 1.2025 or join the battle today?

I am now only holding aud, nzd shorts, cad longs and new dlr/jpy shorts +...

of course, the quietly shorted eur 1.2070,1.2075, 1.2080.

quietly, quietly...

europe M 11:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
talks about NFP arr +200K.... already seeing some speculative buying of eurusd from some private accounts in last minutes...

Tallinn viies 11:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
livingston - if u there, do u think it is possible to see NFP +300K? what do you think?

lugano f. 11:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hi! gone short eur/chf and eur/gbp at current level.stop at 20 pips looking for profit around 50/60 pips.
nice weekend to all when today is over!

Goes (NL) B747 11:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 11:24 GMT August 6, 2004

what is your avg. short price regarding EUR/USD ???


gt

Sydney Alimin 11:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
if today's nfp doesn't provide the move to either side, what data or events do we have for next week that have the market-moving potential apart from fed's rate decision?

Dallas GEP 11:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
NP NM....I always have a great concern in the rare times that global-view is having problems that we are unable to keep each other informed as to what we may be doing. At that time there were some people getting beat up pretty bad with the YEN being sold across the board.

Dallas GEP 11:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
YEP Dolphin.....I had that 1.3200 order in there from earlier and I just flat missed the fact we had Canadian numbers out so that was the dumbest thing i have done the last couple of days. Good news is 1.3200 IMO is fully recoverable but just another PITA to deal with.

Kaunas NM 11:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:10 GMT August 6, 2004

ok.

sorry for misleading remark.

Eilat Dolphin 11:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Hi! Cads jobs numbers should have come out thirteen minutes ago. They must be below expectations...

Dallas GEP 11:11 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
The usd/cad short may have been a mistake. It looks bullish at this time

Bruxville Jim 11:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas, there were 2 possies w/ different entry prices.

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 11:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
06.08.2004 (02.50 am US TIME)


BRENT - NEW RECORD $45!!!


USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 111.65) - USD BROKE RESISTANCE AT 111.45/70. STRONG SUPPORT AT 111.25/110.70. IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD BE WITNESSES THE TEST 112.45/50 REGION AND EVEN 113.00. ONLY CLOSE BELOW 110.70 WILL NEGATE POSITIVE IMAGE OF USD.

EUR/USD(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2072) - EUR IS TESTING 1.2100 REGION BECAUSE OF RISING IN PRICES BRENT. IN LONG TERM HIGH PRICES THIS MATERIAL SHOULD VERY FORTIFY EUR. TODAY COURSE DEPEND ON US DATA (NFP). IF DATA WILL BE WORST THAN EXPECTED AND BRENT WILL STILL RISING IN PRICES, IN A FEW DAYS USD WOULD BE VERY WEAK.

USD/CHF(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2740) - UNTILL US DATA - RANGE 1.2700 - 1.2840. TODAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.2845 WILL BE BUY SIGNAL ON THE NEXT WEEK, BUT TODAY`S CLOSE BELOW 1.2680 WILL BE SELL SIGNAL ON NEXT WEEK.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8249) - RANGE 1.8200 - 1.8300 SHOULD STAY TILL US DATA. TODAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.8300 ALLOW TEST 1.8450 ON THE NEXT WEEK, BUT TODAY`S CLOSE BELOW 1.8200 WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALL TO 1.7950/1.8000 REGION AND LONG TERM EVEN TO 1.7500 REGION.

Dallas GEP 11:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
NM, I added more to get my average up. I don't have to calculate it, the platform does it for me. THX for your concern. Most of us couldn't post earlier with internet glitch.

Bruxville Jim 11:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Oil man// For how many days is your daily range meant to be valid? Can't it suddenly move sharply? Say, range is 203-205 for Mon?

Dallas GEP 11:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
In short on USD/cad off an order @ 1.3200. Forgot about Canadian numbers were coming out. Like possie anyway unless NFP is a great number

Kaunas NM 11:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:32 GMT August 6, 2004
Closed gbp/jpy 203.26 for +30 (worst floating loss was -48 pips during Asia)

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT August 5, 2004
Took GBP/JPY 203.34 short. stop OVER 204.00 target 202.80
WARNING: very dangerous pair

interesting calculation.....

Bruxville Jim 11:03 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Oil man// That's another reason to choose c-m-c:)
Was seen right before 21GMT, so I was forced to pay my daily rollover fee just seconds after opening the possie:))

UAE Oil man 11:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 16:33 GMT August 5, 2004
Range 201.88----202.23--203.78.----204.13
//
Jim, 203.95 was not seen by most..

Bruxville Jim 10:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Oil buddy// I'm sitting in a short from 203.95 (magic 204 offers, that's a Bruxville Great Wall of Magic). Looking to close ahead of 203. Another walk to 204 can't be ruled out today (esp right after NFP release)

EUROPE M 10:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin .... yeah, I agree totally with you... it can go both ways and in my opinion it will go somewhere. Expecting volatility, thin market is here.

europe M 10:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP bounced nicely be4 from minor supp 0,6600...however first offers seen already at 0,6620...

EUROPE M 10:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
minor bids now jumping in at 1,2050/1,2045... more bids at 1,2030.... cant see any mid amounts offers until 1,2080.....

Roumeli anka 10:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
well, it seems everybody woke up with a great appetite to buy $ today.

Dallas GEP 10:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp/jpy 203.26 for +30 (worst floating loss was -48 pips during Asia)

UAE Oil man 10:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jimmie, Well if you have the position from 203.78, like i pointed out it's super oil man attractor, just keep the stop at entry and just pray it goes down..it's friday toss a coin in the air and go with it..at least that gbpjpy will not cost on the stop.lol.

Sydney Alimin 10:18 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
B747: haha, like hk ab said...shhh quietly
oh well i haven't seen 1.2090-1.2110 broken the second time despite all the talks about it bouncing as high as 1.23, so until that is shown of course i am still going with the flow :) there is always a possibility of course that today the reversal could come but that is also the same as saying there is a possiblity that it could go down to new low too

Sydney Alimin 10:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
regarding NFP, even if it is a so-so figure, the previous NFP could be revised up and that will help usd

Goes (NL) B747 10:11 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 10:08 GMT August 6, 2004

good afternoon Alimin,

your sound like EUR 'super shorter' :-)

gt

Belgrade Knez 10:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:56 GMT August 6, 2004

preda6634

Sydney Alimin 10:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
baby euro is going down tonight, leave all the talks about 1.22/1.23 level for next week

slv sam 10:05 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 10:00 GMT /
:) if i had you would never see me here!! no..it is just other pairs price action...it tells me euro is likely to sink..aimho!GT

Bruxville Jim 10:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 09:57 GMT // Got some insider info concerning NFP?:)

slv sam 09:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
some indication that euro will be heading lower today!!GT

Dallas GEP 09:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
JIm I was just thinking about that. I think the JPY pairs will be less affected by NFP EXCEPT for usd/jpy. On bad news that COULD short consderably or of course the opposite if GOOD so I may do something with usd/jpy specifically

hong kong nt 09:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 08:49 -- yr Y! id?

Bruxville Jim 09:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, GEP. Btw are you going to leave the positions through NFP if targets not met before?

Dallas GEP 09:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim, I have alarms that go off when price action hits certain levels and USD/JPY and Eur/JPY woke me up!!! So up for what I HOPE is an acrros the board break DOWN on the YEN pairs. GbP/JPY seems right now to be the most FIRM si it is MORE likely eur/jpy and uad/jpy will short at this time IF they don't bounce long from here.

Dallas GEP 09:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
4:47 to be more precise

Dallas GEP 09:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
IT is roughly 4:30 AM in Dallas

Bruxville Jim 09:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what time is it now in Dallas? Should I say good morning or good night? Taking a breakfast look at the markets?:)

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Jim 203.10 would be fine with me. 111.00 on usd/jpy and 134.20 on eir/jpy

Gen dk 09:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bruxville Jim 09:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, still targeting 202.80? TIA.

Dallas GEP 09:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Still short all YEN pairs. USD/JPY from 111.39, gbp/jpy from 203.56 (average) and Eur/JPY from 134.45 average

Bruxville Jim 09:33 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Oil man// Any change today for your GBP/JPY Super Attractor?

UAE Oil man 09:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
La gold//You compare AC-M with ubs?.. don't mix towels with toilet paper.

Gen dk 09:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA GOLD 09:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
OIL MAN, Swiss banking regulations are quite strict. Large
deposits are better kept @ ubs.

europe m 09:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP.... bids in eurgbp at 0,6600/0,6590..offers at 0,6620/30/50.

eur lg 08:58 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hearing rumors that over the weekend it will be announced that Citi is buying Barclays. This could put GBP in play.

LA GOLD 08:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
OIL MAN, The funds are not deposited with a-c-m, they
are deposited @ S-OCIETE G-enenal

Dublin Flip 08:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Martin, Western central bankers are generally a lot less interventionist and have little intrest in micro-managing a currency. Quite simply they believe that a floating currency in an open market will cushion and price in changing conditions better than they can by constantly pegging a rate because of a new set of critera.
Since you seem to be worried about the kiwi having an adverse effect on the export sector whereas you don't seem to think the RBNZ might be concerned with the inflationary effects of a weaker currency (Inflation is what they are trying to head off after all). Here is a chart that shows you the kiwi is only accurately reflecting the surge in commodities (export are surging in NZ and Ozz remember???)
CRB and NZD overlay

As I've said kiwi might come lower but it has nothing to do with either the RBNZ's desires or the pain it's causing exporters.

Bruxville Jim 08:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nt// Not too funny a topic, but the concept is well-explained there.

UAE Oil man 08:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Why compare unregulated brokers with regulated ones.the money in that ac-m is highly at risk with the highly disputable managements reputation (even if censored bought them off couple of weeks ago.)

europe M 08:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Well, looks like eurusd is agn now on soft ground so I am expecting to weaken bellow 1,2040 in next few hours - before US data. Interbank... small bids at 55, more to come at 30. Offers now 65/70/80/90...quite a few of them.

Belgrade Knez 08:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

nt.......

can you please contact me on my YIM, would like to ask you something.

Thanks.

LA GOLD 08:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
bah, yes UBS is very secure, no doubt. your deposits are
safe as can be. but they are pricey to trade with, specially
if you day trade. for large strategic position taking they are
ok.

Belgrade Knez 08:47 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:41 GMT August 6, 2004

Well explained my friend LOL

Newcastle GH 08:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
A couple of important areas for short termers are 1.2045 and 1.2014. Both 61.8%. 1.2014 from Wednesday's low! Interesting that both of these are potential double bottom areas as well as 61.8% supports!

Beijing Laowen could I ask for your email address please I would like to ask for some info!

la gold 08:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ubs is ok if you dont mind paying higher spreads. Not good for
day trading. and dont listen to there recomendations, it will
cost you big time, and definatelly dont listen to the traders advise. If you are looking for good prices and do
your own homework, i found A-C-M to be quite good.

Bah Bahrain1 08:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville,Jim//// Hi there...One of my frnds here on the land Have an account with UBS for Big business, he told me that they are the best and very secure.
That's why I ask about them yestreday...I tried to find there FX platform, but could not find that...seems I need to call them and arrange for that. GL.
For Bank Austria I was dealing with them through Reuters system..And they are very very good.

Dublin Flip 08:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I agree with Viies that C M C - are pretty good in the order execution and price buisness. Maybe they don;t have the bells and whistles in the charting and extras department but the prices action is faithful to EBS/Interbank and therefore you don't deal outside ranges by some coked up impuslive 15teen year old like some of them. Bottomline is they have a diversity of clients who are big, small and tiny the price action is ligit and so bigger is better. I think any trader should be more concerned with order ethics, pricing and clarity of accounting over any cute gimmicky add ons like charting. You are going to have to go to something like futuresource for the real market anyway unless you want online broker chart infomation as opposed to i/bank.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
LONDON....what glitters is not gold friend....The NBNZ just like any other central bank look for ways to maintain their currency at an equilibrium that best benefits their economy...the only central bank that are open about their intervention intentions are the BOJ....g/t

hong kong nt 08:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
A joke for present quiet marktet...

What is the best example of Globalisation ?

Answer:
It must be Princess Diana's death.

Question:
Why ?

Answer:
An English princess with an Egyptian boy friend crashed in a French tunnel, driving in a German car with a Dutch engine, driven by a Belgian who was drunk on Scottish whisky,

followed closely by an Italian Paparazzi on Japanese motorcycles powered by Iraqi gas and treated by an American doctor, using Brazilian medicines.

This is sent to you by a Chinese, using Bill Gate's technology,
and you're probably reading this on your computer, that uses
Taiwanese chipsets, and a Korean monitor, assembled by Bangladesh workers in a Singapore plant, transported by Indian lorry drivers.

That, my friends, is Globalisation...

Goes (NL) B747 08:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
JPY: it can be much better, but I am still optimistic.

gt

Gen dk 08:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Beijing Laowen 08:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
If breaking below 1.2040, Eur/Usd is pentential to test 1.1970~80 area, where we can long in the short term. The perfect scenario is it goes up to 1.2210 again where we can short it comfortably.

Tallinn viies 08:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
1,2085/90 held again.
first support at 1,2045/50. if broken, we probably see 1,2025

Beijing Laowen 08:29 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Viies, I cannot decline your comment on s.a.x.o.b.an.k. Sometimes I also came up with their manual operation which might be thought as something like cheating. But now things are much better than before. On spot trading, except for some rare pairs like aud/eur (not eur/aud), all executions are automatic, unlike one year ago, most executions were to be confirmed by human broker. I am also using a separate charged charting service, and I agree with you that with this consideraqtion of charting on the platform can be dispense with. G.F..T's censored FX 2 is perfect and fast compared with some others. To tell the truth,if you don't mind trading only few major pairs and ignore the charting facility, I think A.C.M. is also very nice platform.

Bruxville Jim 08:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 08:28 GMT // cm or sa?

Bruxville Jim 08:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 08:23 GMT // I recall you were looking for UBS' website yesterday. and today you are already recommending it for 'big business'... suspicious, you know... gl.

Brooklyn mhi 08:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:25 GMT August 6, 2004
I asked because i use them and had a hunch they peeking over my back

slv sam 08:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
as long as e/$ stays between 1.20-1.2180 no position.
shall sell euro only below 1.1950 and buy it over 1.22..this is for short/medium term. 4 longer term US$$$ is A SELL.GT

london 08:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
gold coast...martin


i personally met Dr Bollard on his recent trip to london.

i can assure u he is not concerned at 62c.

there is absolutely no danger of rbnz intervention at these levels.

he is extremely upbeat and bullish on the nz economy, puts the ccy strength down to improving terms of trade and unusually low global interest rates offshore.

Ldn Cashman 08:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
iw, just as in Black Jack the casino always seems to be the richest

Tallinn viies 08:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 08:15 GMT - no time to explain, sorry mate.
some day you know if you see

Bah Bahrain1 08:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Frnds good day to u all................
I Think S..A...X...O... and F..X...C..M.. are the best for small business.
For Big business I think UBS and Bank Austria.
Good luck to u all.

Helsinki iw 08:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Cashman, I guess the question still goes unanswered: "Where are the customer´s yachts?"

Ldn Cashman 08:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Did you know that the man in charge of C.MC Peter Cruddas is worth some 300 million pounds. He appeared in the Times Richest 100 people in the city in no. 2 position.

Tallinn viies 08:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
of course Im talking about retail platforms

Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 08:13 - yes you maybe right about charting but if you have charts and stuff from other sources then their prices and execution best I have seen.
sa.xo guys showing sci-fi spread and even then they read your positions and cheat.
imho of course

Brooklyn mhi 08:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT August 6, 2004
Could you be more specific what means "Excellent Service" and "Bad Service"

Beijing Laowen 08:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT August 6, 2004 //

I ever had a demo account with C.M..C,but my feeling of the platform was really bad. Very slow launch-up, and its interface is not easdy to access.

I am using s.ax.o.b.a.n.k for 3 years and feel its quite good and stable. My another recommendation is G..F.T,which is a platform with powerful charting.

Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I need to agree with guys about C.MC. Have used at least 10-15 different brokers and they are the best.
have been using them near 5 years for my private account. excellent service.
couple of account I manage have in sa.xoban.k
so bad service I have seen only when used American online brokers.

Bruxville Jim 08:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Those 5 numbers: IFR estimate; Prev.; Median estimate; Min/Max.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:02 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
IF enough traders like mike voice their concerns about the tactics of the mentioned platform they would get the massage and come back into line..i think they may have already done it....look at their e/usd spread timing and compare it to the ticker above..it was always lagging behind by 2-3 pips....

Bruxville Jim 08:02 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn - that's another number.

Bruxville Jim 08:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
RE: NFP.
06Aug 12:30 USD Nfarm Payrolls ,000 Jul 242 112 220 200 300

Brooklyn mhi 07:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Cairns Aussie 07:56 GMT August 6, 2004
6 Aug. 04 12:30 Unemployment Rate (US) Jul 5.6% 5.6%

Cairns Aussie 07:56 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Evening all, Can someone tell me what time GMT NFP numbers are out, thanks

Brooklyn mhi 07:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Edmonton I suggest that you demo platforms before you trade and c which one fit you better. Paying less on spreads r nice. But nobody giving free pips.

Bruxville Jim 07:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Concerning see-em-see - it takes a lot of patience to open the account, but their spreads and execution are outstanding. gl.

Brisbane RMR 07:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Edmonton Canada Mike I agree with London try (If you want a good broker try C'M'C deal-for-free.)

London 07:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SA Pat 07:32 GMT August 6, 2004
Try www.moneytec.com

Moskow 07:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Wanna test your trading system on a reliable historical data ?
Intarday forex history collected for seven years.

Bgd PS 07:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Argentina moscar 07:39 GMT August 6, 2004

Looks like you will have to close your trade every time before news is out.

Ldn 07:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin here you go again with your sensationalism !!!!!

"grave concern about the kiwis levels at the 62 levesl making it uncompetative and said RBNZ "

Argentina moscar 07:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
They are not garantee the stop-orders in no longer guarantee fills on stop-loss orders when major fundamental news announcements occur

Bgd PS 07:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Argentina moscar 07:25 GMT August 6, 2004

what they have changed in their policy please?

SA Pat 07:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
If brokers are not allowed to be discuused here, can anyone refer me to a site or forum where such topics may be discussed.


Edmonton, Alberta Mike 07:30 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again! i love you freindly englishmen.


but i love freindly english girls a bit more.

London 07:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Edmonton, Canada Mike 07:26 GMT August 6, 2004
Very good. Rarely requotes, 3 pip spreads on some.

Edmonton, Canada Mike 07:26 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
London. is that broker you talked about, good for 10 to 20 minute trades, involving 4-15 pips?

Argentina moscar 07:25 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks

I have an account in G'F'T, but their have changed the stop-orders policy today!

London 07:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Argentina moscar 07:18 GMT August 6, 2004
The forum owner likes to keep the forum freely flowing with direct market analysis / information / thoughts. (If you want a good broker try C'M'C deal-for-free.)

Argentina moscar 07:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
from censored

Argentina moscar 07:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone recived an email from anounce their change of policy of the stop orders?

Any comments?

Thanks.

Edmonton, Canada mike 07:18 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
thank you very much London!

Argentina moscar 07:18 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Why we can't talk about the brokers?

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
CALABASH...The kiwi has been withstanding the usds recent upward momentum better than any other commodity currency..their rate differential has both helped them to attract capital flows and hindered them in that it has kept the currency high and uncompetative in relation to their much reliant upon export trade...despite low unemployment and good export sales but with greatly reduced margins, all the kiwi at the 64 levels is doing is marking time before it becomes competative again at the 59-60 levels..i posted on the levels before...Even the RBNZ governor Bollard has expressed in dispatches grave concern about the kiwis levels at the 62 levesl making it uncompetative and said RBNZ was looking at ways in which to curb its rise...it is plainly fundamentally over-valued over 58 cents when the compared to other more dominant currencies...thats why in a post of 2 weeks ago i posted that the KIWI will shed more feathers than any other commodity currency...tonites data may be the spark to ppush the little flightless bird aver the cliff...g/t

London 07:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Edmonton, Canada Mike 07:12 GMT August 6, 2004
Hi we are not allowed to talk about brokers here, but I suggest you change brokers immediately. GC1 are naughty brokers to say the least.

Edmonton, Canada Mike 07:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I'm a newbie, I'm having problems with "gee see eye" trading ltd. The delay is very long and it's seems i can never open a good postion, and i have more trouble exiting trades as well. Is this a platform thing? or r some other trading platforms though other forex companys better? I'm not trying to sclap, well i'm learning forex, i'm trying to make most of my porfits though market breaks out. can anyone help?

Sydney Alimin 07:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
that's good that NFP can range from anything to anything, stay sidelined if you are not sure or if one feels a bit adventurous, one can try straddling just before announcement but this is too obvious i think...

personally i think we need a bad bad and i mean really bad NFP number for the dollar to be sold off like crazy, any number slightly below expectation still need to face fed meeting next week when they will just say that is another blip and wait one more month, any number which is within expectation or better will then provide continuation to the recent trend

Melbourne Qindex 07:10 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The key quantized level of my daily cycl is located at 1.1998.

PAR 07:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hearing Non Farm payroll predictions from negatif to above 400.000 I start wondering how transparant US economic data are. Economic numbers seem as hard to predict as lotto numbers. Analysts could write a book " How I won the LOTTO ".

Dublin Flip 06:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I think at the moment you could use any group as a contrarian indiciator especially momentum hedge funds. Plenty of big players who don't have a setting for "range trade" mode on their models have been chopped around fairly badly. Another example that models may work in trends but traders work in ranges. Given their natural predispostion for selling high and buying low, I'd reckon the Asian funds and official names have fared much better over the past few months.

ldn hm 06:59 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
You're wrong as usual, Martin. This is the only id under which I have ever posted. Trot along to g-v and ask them. How's the elite trading going?

Ldn 06:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Japanese investors will remain a source of moderate supply
for the Australian dollar in coming weeks.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ldn...do you self a favour and use your 3 brain cells to change your ISP location whenever you post such wisdom..by changing it you can still retain an ounce of credibility when you post under your real location...man,there is one born every minute....!

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Bought USDJPY 11163 target 11225 sl 11111. nice number )

Dublin Flip 06:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks. is there an actual C9 index or is that a playful euphemism???? I understand the "contrarian indicator" factor but from what I read on the archives (despite some daily fluffs) they sold ozzie for the first four months of the year. Not too shabby

Calabash TarHeel 06:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN
Even with a .25bp raise, the kiwi just can't get any real strength behind it so far, it would seem to me that it should start to breakdown pretty soon.
What do you see in the cards?
Tia

ldn hm 06:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin, of coarse, being the global-view's very own c9 contra-ind. Gonna cook the wife a nice meal tonight Martin?

Sing 06:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
- c9's selling euro at market -

GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP...HK..REVDAX is an authority on the subject but in a few short words:it is the asian version of what we have in australia:a whole group of bored housewives spending husbands money at the pokies every day!..as they deal in forex they are are bit more sophisticated and have become somewhat of a contrarian indicator in asian forex circles...if you want a more detailed explanation there are traders in here more qualified who can provide us with a complete history of this phenomenon..a while back there was a detailed description on the c9s posted in the archives...g/t

Beijing Laowen 06:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Buying Eur/Usd ard. 1.2030 is a good strategy for today. 1.2210 should be tested soon. FWIW.

Calabash TarHeel 06:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:24 GMT August 6, 2004

Martin, you are a trip. This forum does need some humor now and then.
Take Care

Tallinn viies 06:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
MMS write consensus expectation is +250K...
where they take it? I can see all guys expecting it lower.
MMS self expect to see +190K

IFR est is +242K and medium est is +220K
???
whatever. numbers today show us if we see 1,1890/1900 today or not. gl

Dublin Flip 06:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Martin pardon my ignorance but what's a C9???

GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY ALIMI...not for much longer ....C9s will spend all their daily pocket money by this asian afternoon...hitting the 12090 brick wall will make sure they get home in time to cook dinner...g/t

LA fxnew 06:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
anybody long gbp/usd?

Thanks

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Just a look

We have bought the break of the numerous highs at 1.2075 and gone long at 1.2080 with stops tucked in at 1.2030 underneath Asia s low at 1.2045. Our initial target is at 1.2190 where we will re assess the position. Prices
should accelerate here and test 1.2120 quickly. We will raise our stop to our entry level if 1.2130 trades to protect capital. [AD] [05:29 GMT]


[05:11 GMT August 6th] Despite surging oil prices and sharp falls in U.S. equity markets, the EUR/USD traded in a tight 1.2022/74 range yesterday, doggedly waiting for the Non Farm Payrolls tonight in NY. A survey of economists by CBS
MarketWatch yesterday shows a median expectation of 230,000.
The tight ranges and low volumes continued into the Asian session today. 1.2047/75 is the range so far, with volumes light and investor interest low. The Yen lead intraday moves. The overnight events were expected to drive Asian
bourses sharply lower and lead to Yen weakness, causing the move in the EUR/USD to the day"s low. This scenario did not eventuate, as the Nikkei showed only a 1% fall at midday; the Yen strengthened and the EUR/USD traded up to the session
high"s. Dealers report offers around 1.2080, with stops building above to 1.2110. There are bids at the overnight lows at 1.2020, with further interest at 1.1975. The EUR/crosses also traded in featureless markets, with the only close noted orders being rumored stops above 135.00 in the EUR/JPY.
Tight ranges to hold ahead of the payrolls. [email protected]

Sydney Alimin 06:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
superheroes are trying to hold and push euro high, how long can they do that?

Calabash TarHeel 06:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 05:46 GMT August 6, 2004
Hello Viies, I don't know what Greenie is going to do for sure, but after his report to congress, I really don't see him doing a compelete about face a mere three weeks later.
The one thing I do expect tomorrow with the NFP is spikes both ways real quick. Any tight stops will get hit. IMVHO.

Good Luck

Brooklyn mhi 06:15 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I have been stopped out of most of aud/usd

Prague JV 06:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Hallo trading people.
Today is day for expecting anexpected , so take care . Gl :)

广东 06:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

**神秘点的探索**8月6日--(yinzi)
一、8月6日的神秘点是:
序 货 币 可能低点 可能高点 天图趋势 操作参考 预测本周高低点
0 DINIW 89.30 90.20 多 88.10 / 90.80
1 RUD/USD 1.1960 1.2150 空 1.1960多 1.1940 / 1.2226
2 GBP/USD 1.8160 1.8330 空 1.8170多 1.8010 / 1.8430
3 AUD/USD 0.6940 0.7120 空 0.6940多 0.6930 / 0.7155
4 USD/CHF 1.2650 1.2850 多 1.2660空朗 1.2600 / 1.2940
5 USD/CAD 1.3100 1.3400 多 1.3130空加 1.3100 / 1.3400
6 USD/JPY 110.50 111.50 多 110.60空日 110.00 / 113.60

以上数据仅供参考,风险自负!但一定要定好自己认为能承受的止损位!!
当买进以后。价上到30点以上就要提止损到买价!以保不亏。这种提示仅供参考,可自行操作。
祝大家好运!
茵子 QQ:30963505
2004年8月6日

Information of Aug 6th, 2004
NO Currency Low point possible High point possible Trend of daily graph Reference for operation The lowest and highest point of this week’s forecast.
0 DINIW 89.30 90.20 Up 88.10 / 90.80
1 RUD/USD 1.1960 1.2150 Down Buy at 1.1960 1.1940 / 1.2226
2 GBP/USD 1.8160 1.8330 Down Buy at 1.8170 1.8010 / 1.8430
3 AUD/USD 0.6940 Down Down Buy at 0.6940 0.6930 / 0.7155
4 USD/CHF 1.2650 1.2850 Up Sell CHF at 1.2660 1.2600 / 1.2940
5 USD/CAD 1.3100 1.3400 Up Sell CAD at 1.3130 1.3100 / 1.3400
6 USD/JPY 110.50 111.50 up Sell JPY at 110.60 110.00 / 113.60


This chart is only for reference. Please be resposible with your own operation. Be sure to set a lowest cut point that you can afford!
In order to prevent lose, after you buy it, when the price increases by 30 points, you can set the lowest cut point to the price you buy. This operation is just for reference. You can do your own operation.
My QQ number is : 30963505,. Please feel free to contact me.
Good luck to everybody!!

Yours sincerely,
Yinzi

Sydney Alimin 05:58 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
wonderful, old buddy 1.2090 is still there :) cheers

GOLD COAST MARTIN 05:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Thank god for the C9s..... giving us better entry levels ahead of tonites Data....god bless them!...g/t

Tallinn viies 05:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
rumours that NFP will be weaker caused this move higher I guess. also consulting frim write that if oil 50$ then maybe Fed dont hike...
speculations only. Morgan stanley expected yesterday that we may see NFP as highas 300K. medium est is 215. Im betting more like 220-240K. even if it under 200K, it cant hurt toomuch as next weeks FED meeting keeps everything under control.
finally euro has shown life during Asian trading. my o/n order to sell more at 1,2084 is done.
plan for today:
to cut half of my position is 1,2124/29 level traded. selling again near 1,2155/80 area. stop all at 1,2204.
moved order to cover half short at 1,2034.

Calabash TarHeel 05:27 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold some eur/yen @ 134.95

KL KL 05:23 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
HK ab, I suppose since it was strong US$ policy collapsing that started to move money out of US in to europe and more to ASIA. I don't think Europe is doing any better today.... best performing still Asia ....but when US sneeze you will be seeing flu soon in Asia...

hk ab 05:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
KL, how do you rationalize the rally in other stock mkt then? They performed better? esp. those european ones.

LA GOLD 05:09 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
$/YEN more likely to visit 112.2 before 111.0.

hk ab 05:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
the word is "collapse".
bye all ,see ya later in NY before NFP.

KL KL 05:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
During 2000-1..US lowest interest, oil at $10-12....no recovery was seen until 04....that too can consider fragile growth.....now with higher everything.....seems like magic hands at work to keep DOW & S&P up until after election

hk ab 05:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
If US goes into recession again, AUD will be the first to collapse.

Sydney Alimin 04:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex has proposed to fight the high oil price by slowing down world's economy....recession is lurking...come on fed, keep increasing the rate..it's all good

hk ab 04:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
aud might blip some more on the aud/jpy leg to furnish its long missed 79 goal. Move stop on aud short a little bit.

dlr/jpy 112 sitting there with tight s/l above.
also eur/jpy 135 short for position trade.

hk ab 04:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nt// oilman pointed out that it depends on which period we see.

But if that's the case, that means we could well be at another TURNING point of the correlation. So, no reliable trend/forecast can be seen.

btw, I am assessing the eur long suggestion you gave last night. Thanks very much.

Sydney Alimin 04:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab: haha, sorry mate... can't help it since my bloody order is not filled yet...maybe should wait for the reaction to nfp data first

hong kong nt 04:46 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB 02:07 -- really no correlation between USD and oil since 2002?!

hk ab 04:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Alimin..... quiet sh shshsh....

will be much better otherwise, I have to turn to bull camp...

Sydney Alimin 04:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
euro stil can't go through 1.2090 :) come on bulls, show me the 1.22 that has been talked about...we might just be ranging tightly here till the indicators unwind themselves and ready for another big leg down

hk ab 04:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
quiet actions.....

eur is in the zone now again....

Argentina moscar 04:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone recived an email from censored anounce their change of policy of the stop orders?

Any comments?

Thanks.

Brooklyn mhi 04:19 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd creeping up

hk ab 04:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Noodys, thanks for the blessing..

have a nice trip and rest.

Spr Noods 04:04 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
yeah AB long weekend and all resting
good tip from one of the regulars on Dlryen on GVI
cut and turn long some when it went 20 bid
but did not stay the course
out at 40 since day started have no real possie
zzzzzzzzzzzz

going away for hols back on Wed u take care gt gl

Calabash TarHeel 03:57 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 03:54 GMT August 6, 2004
Thanks anyway.
Live long

hk ab 03:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
another day to sell eur "quietly".
thanks for giving us confid. to short more dlrjpy, ah bak.

hk ab 03:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, no view on gb/jp, sorry.

dlr/jpy 113.xx?...

hahaha another thankful and CLEAR contra indicator?

dad? o... it means new "Ah Bak" index.

hk ab 03:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
geez... 1.2070 miss again...

Calabash TarHeel 03:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 03:33 GMT August 6, 2004
Ab, any thoughts on gbp/jpy for a short. I am thinking maybe 204.20 if seen.
Thanks, Good Luck

hk ab 03:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
someone big sets in?

hahha
and helping me to get the eur/jpy short limit at 135?

hk dad 03:45 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk babab ask and you shall get, you can call me dad.
noody, black gold did a number on us last night. lol dollaryenny now has legs to 113.50 take care.

hk ab 03:33 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel my bias to the short side.

Calabash TarHeel 03:28 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 03:13 GMT August 6, 2004
Hello ab, you planning on going short/long eur/jpy @ 135.00?
I've got a short waiting @134.90

Tia, Good Luck

hk ab 03:13 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
dlr index, looks a bit flat.

the aud/jpy ...still can't climb back above 79 my shorting zone.

eur/jpy was so close to my 135 shooting region.

looking at the oil chart, looks the exhaustion is within 5 USD now.

oilman, now the oil listens to you and fly so high, do u have any contracts at hand to take profit?

hk ab 03:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
(bid)

hk ab 03:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
mhi// the aud short stop is now at b/e .7043.

cairo amgad 03:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,

Long USD/JPY at 110.90 S/L 110.37 T/P 112.25 (may raise T/P upon receiving US Data to 112.50 then 113.30)

GL GT

If i had not shorted USD/JPY at 111.72 S/L 112.25 T/P 110.90 I would not do it now before US Data.

Ltn th 03:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
oil v's gold.

hk ab 03:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
IF 111. fig seen prior NFP will exit the 111.54 one and keep the 111.70 short.

Brooklyn mhi 03:00 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:50 GMT August 6, 2004
I asked on the AUD/USD. you wrote you were short aud. tia

Ltn th 02:54 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry wrong chart. comments meaningless. But????

hk ab 02:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Noody, are you resting today?

Syd 02:53 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
October 2000 ? You mean just around the time Bush came to power ? All things US and all things Oil changed forever, somehow. By some coincidence.

hk ab 02:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
th// thanks, it looks like the oil lags behind aud rather.

hk ab 02:50 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
mhi//If dlr/jpy doesn't break 112 by NFP, I will adjust the stop prior to the announcement, right now, there's a limit at the door and a stop slightly above 112.

Ltn th 02:49 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
ab// with acknowledgement to BC.
Try this chart. It appears that there was a good natural correlation of oil to USD which switched to gold in october 2000. I wonder what this means?

New Jersey Adil 02:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Is there any Modified version of the "Turtle Trading rules" (http://www.forexlisting.com/free_stuff.asp) being applied to Forex Trading.

Just very curious.

Thanks

LA GOLD 02:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
AB, agree about cnbc being a contra indicator.
Not a good thing when cnbc advertises anything.

Brooklyn mhi 02:43 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:07 GMT August 6, 2004
What is your stop and target on usd/usd short

melbourne farmacia 02:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

Just a idea: if anyone benefits from straddling the market on NFP release... how about donating some or all profits to the Red Cross Sudan appeal....

hk ab - nothing on my radar next tuesday

hk ab 02:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
bc// for gold, what's your suggestion?

hk ab 02:39 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
duh.... eur can't reach 1.2070-75 again?

Zorro, I need your help :)

hk ab 02:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
One key "contra-indicator" found this morning is the wide-spread of "buying dlr/jpy on the rising oil" in CNBC....

seems the advertising effect is enough now....

could add short to dlr/jpy if 112 doesn't break comfortably.

LA GOLD 02:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
GA LEE, thanks will do.

shanghai bc 02:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   

AB 02:07--Good morning..Oil is just one of the many factors in influencing Dollar's relative value against other cureencies..The most important issues must be real interest differentials and capital flow issues lasting more than three months between currencies..Good trades..

LA GOLD 02:31 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
I am planning on going long $/yen based on high oil prices.
looking for a good level to enter @ 110.50/80 for medium
term target of 113.80- 114.50.

Ga Lee 02:30 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Do an archive search for "Dublin", initials are "ck", and you'll have your answer via some links he kindly posted.

LA GOLD 02:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
What is the correlation between rising oil prices, and $/yen?
In the last few sessions, $/yen rose along with rising oil.
is it a coincidence or been the case in the past?

hk ab 02:14 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
oilman, thanks.

farmacia// is next Tue of FOMC one of the major cycle day in your count?

UAE Oil man 02:12 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
there is or isnt correlation Ab, depending at the period you look at.

hk ab 02:11 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
viies, any open interest on eur today?

hk ab 02:08 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
also got the two dlr/jpy shorts at hands.

hk ab 02:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
gd morning bc, in other words, no correlation at all?

when gold is still finding its way on the cross road, I will put back my limit entry of eur short to 1.2075 today.

don't open anything else new but kept those aud,nzd shorts, cad long...

shanghai bc 02:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
correlation between Dollar and oil since 2002

Brooklyn mhi 01:52 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 01:44 GMT August 6, 2004
I dont completely understand. My ? was the Spread will be the same.

UAE Oil man 01:44 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 01:34 GMT August 6, 2004

harder to raise with 0% GDP than 4%, and a dead economy.

nyc jk 01:41 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
cheers nh, signing off here too. gl all

Livingston nh 01:35 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
g'nite folks - big day tomorrow ??

Brooklyn mhi 01:34 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
To the forum
Why is so much emphsis being made on if the Fed raises with 1/4. THE BOE Raised and ECB can follwo thus the spread would be the same?

Livingston nh 01:32 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
jk - absolutely - GDP is reduced by rising import price of any commodity // G'span's "productivity miracle" takes a double hit when imports rise accompanied by inflation -- he can't "core" that away

nyc jk 01:20 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
should read "GDP impact" in that last post.

nyc jk 01:17 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nh - agreed re the June consumer spending figures. you agree that higher oil prices have a net negative GBP impact on an oil importer like the US though right?

Livingston nh 01:07 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
One of the GREAT myths is that Gold is a leading indicator of inflation - the death of Bretton Woods changed a lot of things

Livingston nh 01:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk - total expenditures in the US are not affected by the higher oil price - spending is merely redirected - a lot of inane comments blaming June's reduced consumer spending on oil when the reality is that credit spending was curtailed -- aggregate retail consumption includes gasoline as well as big Macs or new cars

houston st 01:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
posted an article in the Financial Forum today regarding oil demand and price you might find interesting.....good trades.

Syd 01:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
In times of uncertainty Gold will be a winner

Livingston nh 01:01 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
When the Fed monetizes the price increase of oil/energy the inflationary spiral will begin in earnest - so far the money supply has not compensated for the higher costs// if NFP employment numbers are below 200K tomorrow we will start to hear again that the Fed may be on hold -- this Fed chairman has no problem raising interest rates and allowing money supply to rise even faster

nyc jk 00:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Q - agreed that those objectives are long term ones. can't agree that Greenspan would purposely try to create a global recession though under any circumstances so will just agree to disagree.

Rafe - although the US is a big oil producer, it consumes much more than it produces, to the tune of roughly 12 mio bpd (according to figures from the Economist), so being a net importer of oil, as oil price rises it has a net drag on US economy and vice versa so should oil prices come off it will be a net + for the US economy.

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold : I am bias and negative on gold.

Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 00:48 GMT - Gold is following the movement of USD and ignore the up/down effect of Crude Oil for the last few weeks.

Spotforex NY 00:48 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Q - If this was the first time that we faced an oil crisis I would be more sympathic to the politicians...but this is the fourth or fifth crisis with oil...and the consumers have not changed some ugly habits (in fact they are worse with SUVs etc...)

But both parties are to blame....

What I find interesting is the lack of upside in gold recently....

Melbourne Qindex 00:42 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 00:38 GMT - Good morning! May I ask who are you going to vote for on the day of election if the gasoline price is well over 2 USdollars per gallon?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:40 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
could not help but watch the fundamental discussion..

what is the worldwide effect of oil falling quickly down to affordable levels.

also what would be the effect of oil fallingf down quickly on the US economy?

hope you don't mind the stupid question but new to fundamentals.

Spotforex NY 00:38 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
What is China's usage of oil on a daily basis??.....That part of the equation was not factored back in the 80's.....It is a different story now.

Q - I agree about your pivot point. Above $45 can IGNITE upside potential in oil......The 50 handle will be a shock when it occurs......

Brooklyn mhi 00:37 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
0034 GMT [Dow Jones] Some sobering math on likely impact of higher oil prices on the world economy from London's Monument Securities. House says conservative estimate would put 2004 oil price average $6 above IMF's $28.99/bbl estimate for 2003, or $175 billion in extra costs to oil consumers. This is $25 billion higher than the total increase in U.S. corporate profits for 2003. (DC)

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 00:30 GMT - If the time frame for the following statement "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates" is 10 - 15 years, then we have consider every possible act.

nyc jk 00:30 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:50 GMT August 5, 2004

Qindex the other problem with your thesis is it has absolutely no basis in fact. I quote from the US Federal Reserve Act, which says the Fed should seek "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates".

Can't seem to find any objectives in there about precipitating a world recession.................

"

Sydney gvm 00:24 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
May see a decent short squeeze in the bond markets after figures tonite but selloff when market realizes we are in the midst of classic '70s stagflation.

Melbourne Qindex 00:21 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 23:55 GMT - Good morning! Yes there is a lot of uncertainty and we have to wait and see.

Syd 00:06 GMT August 6, 2004 Reply   
Agree with that Sydney, the US economy has just recovered Greenspan is not about scare the markets , also with the Terror situation Elections the last thing AG will do is the unexpected not his style .

 




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