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Forex Forum Archive for 08/07/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 22:45 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
If there is any confusion just ignore mp posts.

Melbourne Qindex 22:43 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
My term "critical point" used in my system has a similar nature of pivot point but calculate in a different manner. One can use a secondary pivot point to describe the nature of my "key quantized level" in a tradional jaron.

Melbourne Qindex 22:18 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:17 GMT August 7, 2004
EUR/USD : One of my 44-day cycle references suggests that the market may reverse its course around 1.2304. The market rhythm of this cycle reference is represented by 250 pips. Therefore by adding or substracting 250 pips from 1.2304 one can find the rest of its resting stops, projected supporting or resistant points. The critical point is located at 1.2304 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2053. The current expected trading range is 1.2053 - 1.2304.

... 1.1553 - 1.1803 - (1.2053) // 1.2304* - 1.2554 - 1.2804 - 1.3054 ...

Rye, NY et 22:17 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 22:12 GMT August 7, 2004
"Great minds...etc..."
Thanks for your good posts, by the way...
Do you think we're going to see a major pullback before $50?
TIA

UAE Oil man 22:12 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
posted at the same time , Ny ha.

UAE Oil man 22:10 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Yes you can get a fx option with a certain expiracy to fix a certain level (paying a premium), or buy/sell the pair on spot to hedge your stocks value in that particular pair.

Rye, NY et 22:10 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Toronto 21:53 GMT August 7, 2004
Welcome to the forum...
It sounds like you have a simple case of "Foreign Exchange Risk". Every foreign investor in USD-denominated assets has the same problem. There are some very sophisticated methods of managing this, but look first to some simple concepts. Your "insurance" can take the form of fx spot positions (that's what people talk about here), fx options, futures contracts or options on futures contracts. Look up "hedge" and "protective puts" on the internet; those terms might lead you to some basic info. Also, go to the CME and check the education section. The basic idea is that you want to hedge your foreign exchange risk. Hope this helps...

Toronto 21:53 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
I am completely new to currency trading/futures/options, and I'm not sure if I'm posting in the right forum

My initial objective is as follows.

I currently trade US stocks, but have to convert my $CAD to do this. If I have $100K US ( = $130K CAD say) iin my stock portfolio, my $CAD suffers when CAD strengthens, and vice versa. Is there some way I can maintain the value at $130K CAD even though CAD strenghtens (pay some insurance premium for this if necessary). At the same time if CAD weakens, I still want to benefiit from this, ie the $100K US may now be worth $14oK CAD?
This may be a naive question, but any leads would be appreciated . Thanks K

NY 21:46 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:08 GMT August 7, 2004
So you think the US$ is going down cause mexicans are passing the borders.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:08 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Picking up on Haifa ac's comment below, this Friday's USD dive is still "range" action (not a surprize). The 3 yr EURO/USD chart is trending UP (long term 'til sometime in Q1-Q2 of 2005) with a generally weakening USD across the board (check the charts).

From a chartist's point of view, Friday's USD plunge was no surprize...support line from 9-1-2003ish to present was certainly punctured (not grossly - only 60 pips under)> But what's a trend line, who decides on where it "is"?

From a fundamentalist's point of view the USD Friday was also no surprize since we all know (or should) the USA econ is NOT out of the hospital YET..it's still delicate and there's still an I.V. in it's arm. A a little bad news sends it back to bed. Don't expect the USD to sprint a hundred yard dash and get the gold medal. Yet. It will still secum to minor bad news.

So not surprizingly, a relatively small glitch in the form of a weaker than expected employment report and dip in long-term interest rates was all the USD needed for a more "realistic value adjustment" down to occur, which it did Friday. The buck is still overvalued. A lone coyote can kill a sick bull elk many times its size and had the U.S. econ been very very good (which it is NOT) and with a good deficit base (not that gaping hole we have now), Friday's unemployment number wouldn't have made much diff.

I would be surprized actually if we -DIDN'T- see a slow USD decline reaching the forum's concensus figure of 1.29 by year's end...certainly over 1.26. In my humble opinion if the Fed raises interest AT ALL this year, it's a stupid and miscalculated error which the US econ will pay dearly for, maybe even sending the partly cured US back into intensive care, even tho the Fed does have good (not excellent) info gathering resources on inflation prevention etc.. Sometimes the cure (for inflation) like chemo therapy hurts and nearly kills the very patient it's installed to protect.

I hate to bring this up but we all know the USA is on heightened alert; intel knows something & tired of being accused of being lazy desk sitters in the face of blatent enemy activities. An attack would kill Bush's election as well. If the USA does get hit (and hard...NBC - nuke-bio-chem or mixed coordinated attacks), an already weakish econ goes into relapse, paranoids appear w/ USD to sell fast 'n hard instantly, USD sinks like cement overshoes to 1.30.

But, unbeknownst to the stupidity of the terrorists, a weak cheap USD (created by attacks & the inevitable paranoid USD sellers) is JUST THE TICKET for the USA to recover! I'm not saying it's cool that thousands of people die to accomplish that (it sucks big time), but that's the bottom line of it.

I saw on the news last night FINALLY the yank gov saw the gaping hole in the Mexican border...one brown skinned brown eyed black haired individual is about the same as the next...Mid Eastern or Latino (not a racist statement..only "to the eye" color match!). Easy money for infiltrators (and our very corrupt yet rich border guards).

hong kong nt 17:29 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 03:23 -- how can you ascertain those disappointing numbers not been adjusted by imagination?? cosmetic surgery has its limit..

Haifa ac 14:39 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Euro . NEITHER BULL NOR BEAR.
Here is what I said a while ago:

Haifa ac 15:14 GMT June 23, 2004
Euro. Unless we rally several handles--the Euro is going to close the quarterly and semi annual charts with a Key Reversal. That is a strong signal that indicates at least a TRADING RANGE in the coming months.

We are in a range between 117 and 129. All talks about bull or bear--is futile.

In a range buy the bottom , sell the top and in the middle--scalp!
If you have a deep pocket--sell straddles and play golf!

Spotforex NY 13:39 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 11:25

EU Zorro was on this week as well with his usual perfect timing.

Hats off to those Euro bulls who laughed in the face of darkness!!!!

Global-View Research 11:31 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Fed in focus after payroll shock (Investica)

US dollar confidence has received a serious setback following the weaker than expected employment report and dip in long-term interest rates. The Fed is still likely to increase US interest rates this week, but there will be speculation over a pause in September. The markets will also scale back the timetable for rate convergence between the US and Euro-zone... See the full update and other stories in our new research section CLICK HERE

saloniko 2004 nk 11:25 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
One think i get frome Life is that if someone want to make Fat pocket have to try to think as a fool......

Cant imagine a BIGsmart one to be BIG Rich too..lol!


Nick the Greek!

Surabaya Medallion 09:53 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Look Gloomy

http://ask.slashdot.org/askslashdot/04/08/06/2244249.shtml?tid=187&tid=98&tid=4&tid=1&tid=218

Ldn 09:48 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.
Winston Churchill

London 09:21 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Markets in shock over poor US jobs figures
US employers hired a meagre 32,000 extra workers in July, government figures showed today, shocking markets worldwide and shattering hopes of a labour market rebound.

The report seemed to show a jobs spurt, in which 1.5 million new positions have been generated since August 2003, fizzling out.

Private economists had generally predicted a gain of 243,000 net jobs.

Those expectations evaporated.

Employment in June, too, was weaker than previously reported, the Labour Department said, with net jobs up just 78,000, far lower than the modest 112,000 initially estimated.

Stunned investors sent the Dow Jones industrial average plummeting 147.70 points, or 1.48 per cent, to finish at 9,815.33, the lowest close since November 2003.

The jobs news could be a blow to President George W. Bush, fighting for re-election on November 2, in part on the strength of a rebounding labour market following years of heavy job shedding.

"Our economy's been through a lot," Bush said in a campaign speech at Stratham, New Hampshire.

I'm running because I understand how to take a strong economy to make it stronger. I say we have a strong economy, and it's getting stronger," he told cheering supporters in a field strewn with bales of hay.

Democratic challenger John Kerry pounced on the report to accuse Bush of mismanagement.

"The president keeps saying we've turned the corner. But unfortunately today's job numbers further demonstrate that our economy may be taking a U-turn instead," Kerry said in a statement.

Sluggish job growth also cast doubt over the Federal Reserve's determination to keep pushing up interest rates at a measured pace, with a quarter-point rise anticipated next week.

"It is very disappointing, it indicates that [the] economy is stuck in a soft patch for a much longer period than we anticipated," said Wells Fargo Bank chief economist Sung Won Sohn.

He expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the next meeting on Tuesday but to suspend the tightening cycle in September if further signs of labour market weakness emerge.

One bright note emerged from the labour market report: The unemployment rate, measured by a separate Labor Department survey of households, dipped to 5.5 per cent in July from 5.6 per cent in June.

A breakdown of the jobs showed:

* Within the services sector, retailers shed a net 19,000 workers, leisure and hospitality employers cut 2,000, professional and business services hired 42,000, the education and health sector hired 20,000 and government jobs were flat.

* On the production side, factories took on 10,000 workers and builders hired 4,000 people.

The report fit in with a slew of other soft data for the summer, muddying the economic outlook.

Consumer spending dropped by an expectedly sharp 0.7 per cent in June, recent government figures showed, and retail sales for major stores such as Wal-Mart were sluggish even in July.

Auto sales, however, appeared to be picking up last month.

Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan is still broadly expected to boost the federal funds target rate, which commercial banks charge each other, to 1.5 per cent from 1.25 per cent next week.

Greenspan has said he believes a lull in consumer spending will prove short-lived.

But the policymakers must now confront the combination of declining jobs growth and the menace posed by world oil prices bubbling at all-time highs, at least in nominal terms.

New York's main crude oil contract hit a record $US44.77 a barrel in electronic trade. After adjusting for inflation, however, oil prices are well below the levels reached in the 1970s oil shock.

AFP


Surabaya Medallion 07:26 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
I hope I could buy Yen at 110.5 which look tasty at current level on Monday and sold it on Tuesday. I don't have the gut to face Mr.G on TV after what he did in the past 2 weeks. :)

Melbourne Qindex 04:13 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 17:08 GMT - Thank you for your compliment. There is a change in market rhythm for EUR/USD and USD/CHF and long term cycles analyses are required for reference.

melbourne farmacia 03:35 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
ab - Yeah agree... anyway still within range market... under 1.1950... well deeper range. Have good weekend.. i'm off to the snow. GT

hk ab lazy 03:23 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, together Bush will be in deep water now. very deep indeed. If I were him, I will ask those statistician to make a "prettier" number. Otherwise, it's simply sending the votes fast to Kerry.

hk ab lazy 03:22 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, that's true.

cairo amgad 03:21 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
good morning,

may i ask, what is EUR/USD rate now in weekend, I see it on Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/financeCurrencies.jhtml) now (delayed 20 minutes) 1.2321, is that right and GBP/USD is 1.8490?

Thank you and good day

melbourne farmacia 03:08 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
Morning ab - i will post my next cycle periods early next week for euro. After friday's action, I'm happy to be holding long euro positions entered sub 1.2000 on last wednesday's cycle period. GT

Beijing Laowen 02:47 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 12:55 GMT August 6, 2004//

Mate, may I know what platform you are using? Thanks.

hk ab lazy 02:45 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
bali sunny = hk ah pak.

no worry, sunny, the eur rocket rises too fast, almost no chance to place a short there around.
So, lifted up the actions. but I did enter the eur/jpy.

Beijing Laowen 02:28 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
ab, thanks for your advice. I went out to a dinner with my friends and missed the big move last night, hoping to earn some from the ongoing trend and/or retracement. Being unconfident about the direction after NFP, I closed all my positions before I left the computer (Long Eur/Usd from 1.2025, long Aud/Usd from 0.7036), missing the long march rocket... :-))) However I never regret. As for Eur/Jpy, I feel shorting from at least above 136.50 might be safer given Usd/Jpy looks poised to climbed again.

bali sunny 01:51 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
ab: hope you have not been in the pan when fire was set on euro. from where and to where to you expect retracement
in euro/usd

hk ab lazy 00:00 GMT August 7, 2004 Reply   
but no doubt on a weekly break basis with the current sentiment, eur/jpy can break upside more easily than downside.

USD tone turns bearish till Sept when we see those fund guys back.

 




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