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Forex Forum Archive for 08/09/2004

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Boca Raton 23:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
And if you believe that load folks, did I tell ya I sold Euro at 1.2922 today? What a complete farce. The thing is, you believe yourself. Been doing this for banks for 15 years, and never seen anything like this.

Dallas GEP 23:53 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Effective Cost: If a possie turns against you you can effectively change the BE price point by taking quicker possies in the same direction and clsoing those at at profit.

For example: Assume you have one set of lots on EUR/JPY at 134.75 STILL short. The possibilty of the market coming back to that proce short term is not great BUT you know that the price SHOULD bounce off the 135.80 area and then short back down maybe 40 pips to 135.40 which IS a reasonable target. Assuming you have 20 lots short originally on EUR/JPY short you COULD take 20 lots short at 135.80 WITH TIGHT stop and if it successfully shorts down to 135.40 and it closes THEN the actual gain on that POSSIE is 40 pips which means the BE on ALL the eur/jpy shorts is NOW 135.15 (134.75 + 40 pips from LAST possie taken). IF pair is range trading then you could even do this another time for another 40 pips and your EFFECTIVE BE point would then be 135.55. It is important to run tight stops on the new adds and it is ALSO important to determione if pair is RANGE trading or on a continuation. This strategy is AGGRESSIVE so beware. Some would say just stop out on the orginal pair with a 30-40 pip loss so that's an option also

Melbourne Qindex 23:47 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 23:47 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
BASRA, Iraq (AFP) - Iraq Southern Oil Company has stopped pumping oil after militia threatened to attack local oil infrastructure, a company spokesman said.

Sydney 23:43 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand's second-quarter jobs data Tuesday showed the labor market was tighter than economists had expected, reinforcing expectations the nation's central bank will increase rates in September and raising the prospect of a further hike beyond that. The second-quarter Household Labor Force Survey showed the unemployment rate dropped to 4% from the first quarter, lower than the 4.3% forecast according to data released by Statistics New Zealand.
The Official Cash Rate is currently set at 6% after being raised by 25 basis points on four separate occasions this year. At the last cash rate review in June, which saw the policy rate raised for the fourth time, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard virtually guaranteed another rate hike at the next meeting on Sept. 9 to contain inflationary pressures.

Recent data showed the economy continues to face inflationary pressures, with annual consumer price index inflation accelerating to 2.4% in the second quarter from 1.5% in the first quarter
NZpress

hk ab lazy 23:41 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
dlrcad has returned back to the gate prior NOn-Farm Payroll on crosses.

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
OK eur/gbp IMO is a nice short from 6670 with stop at 6692 and TP at 6630. This WILL NOT be fast mvoing and may take several sessions.

hk ab lazy 23:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
limit @7125 to close my 7150 short on aud and keep the 7175 one.

hk ab lazy 23:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
correction, the key is 81.30 in stead of 80.30

hk ab lazy 23:32 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Sydney, if you scroll back aud/jpy chart and know where those japs start to buy up their favourite little bird aud/jpy, you will see now we are still under the broad SHS in weekly, unless a clean break and close above 80.30, we are still under this scenario.

With US and China demands slowing, the yield differential will become the ONLY support to current aud price.

And don't forget that japs are very good at crazy selling and buying, esp. when Sept repatriation is approaching.

Melbourne Qindex 23:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : 0.7116

Sydney 23:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Ab talk that overlay managers are said to be very interested
in buying Aussie on dips, rise in commodity prices also added luster to Aussie as oil prices neared $45 per barrel

Sydney 23:17 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Strong Employment Numbers To Buoy Kiwi 17yr Low

Dallas GEP 23:13 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
KEN. basically I believe SHORT term usd/cad will top no higher than 1.3210 and possiblt NOT higher than 1.3190. UNLESS we have substancial USD buying tonight.

houston ken 23:09 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
can someone tell me what they think about usd cad . do anyone think it has topped and to contiune the downward movement ?

Dallas GEP 23:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Very nice close GD on usd/cad long!!!

Dallas GEP 23:05 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
We have been in AUSSIE session for one hour and if THEY don't long AUD/USD then WHO WILL????

hk ab lazy 23:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
oops... aud still being smacked by aud/jpy?
yumm....

I prefer to see a test of the 80 line though, last high only reach 79.80.

If 79.50 marks another high in daily, all the moves will be done according to Martin's.......
And this break of 80 could be done till end of Sept, otherwise, it will be much later.

Ldn 22:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Fed rate hike off the table ???

Sydney 21:28 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Doubts creep in about Fed rate hike on Tuesday


LINK

Syd 21:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
RBA makes case for rate rise
The Reserve Bank of Australia has set the scene for a post-election interest rate rise, warning high oil prices and wage pressures could start to push inflation beyond its target range by the end of 2005.

guidlford 21:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi Mtl JP

Thanks a lot

Simon

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
guidlford / wheather an additional 8,000 losing their jobs added to the 9,600 the month before is bad or encouraging news is subject to interpretation and is the hydrolic fluid which makes the currency market move up, down or sideways. Market typicaly does not care about the previous number at the time of the release, rather it is probably generaly more sensitive to how far off it is in its estimate from the one being released.

I've answered your Qs, but u not mine.

Tallinn viies 20:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC 20:54 GMT - glad I was able to help :)

Geneva DC 20:54 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies
for interbank trades your quotes maybe true.
C.mc always does stops at the level you put them, not where next market quote comes.

then they are a charity
or a bucket shop
great! now I know where to exploit the next liquidity blackhole systematically
thanks!

guidlford 20:51 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
oh yeah got that but if it was -9.6k in june and it is expected to be -8k in july does that mean it is getting better or worse?

And is this like to say 9.6K people in the UK were unemployed in June and only 8K are unemployed now.

I am sure this can't be the case, if you could make things clearer for me i would really appreciate it.

Thanks

Mtl JP 20:47 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
guidlford 20:36 / what it means:
GBP = country code: aka UK
Unemployment Change = that which is being measured
(Jul) = for which month
8:30 = time at which it is released
-8.0 = what the market concesus is (or market expectation)
-9.6k = what the measure was the period before.

Q: are u trading a real account ?

Tallinn viies 20:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC 19:17 GMT August 9 - for interbank trades your quotes maybe true.
C.mc always does stops at the level you put them, not where next market quote comes.

just for your info.

guidlford 20:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi All

Wed 11 Aug this indicator is due to be released, could some one explain what it means?

GBP Unemployment Change (Jul) 8:30 -8.0k -9.6k

Gibraltar PW 20:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB - order yourself a copy of Elliott wave principle by frost & pretcher. Checkout elliottwave.com for other reading materials. The web site also enables you to take free tutorials should you wish. I use EW analysis all the time and find it invaluable. Gd luck.

Goes (NL) B747 19:35 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC 19:28 GMT August 9, 2004

clear, point is clear!
what about calls; not only text against those that make calls.

tia & gt

UAE Oil man 19:35 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Nice link, DC.

Geneva DC 19:28 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
With Friday's eur behaviour, EURUSD joined the "liquidity black holes" (a term first coined by Avinash PERSAUD in EXPLAINING AND FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES WITH ORDER FLOWS) displayed several times earlier this year by USDJPY, after BOJ unexpectedly withdrew dollar bids. There is a significant jump in liquidity black holes in 2004, compared to earlier years - maybe a by-product of electronic trading growth.

Geneva DC 19:17 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:39 GMT August 9, 2004 got stopped out at 1,2134.
Talinn, is this not a little white lie?
There was no offer avalaible after the NFP figure between 1.2058 (before the figure) and 1.2185 (first tick after the figure). Best fill availabale was 1.2180 or 85. (source: major banks).


wisconsin tim 19:02 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
well if is a wave 4 then price will move in wave 5 direction if not then have just learned that wave 4 might not have been a wave 4 and there are no certainties ... take a position based on your analysis, put your stop at a reasonable point which would prove your analysis wrong and roll with it. The market will tell you whether you were right or wrong =)

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 18:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Yes,that's what I thought.
Any more views from an EXPERT please?
TIA:-)

Geneva DC 18:53 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
There is no way a certain Elliott wave can been confirmed (except with hindsight).

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 18:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
howdy everyone.
Anyone here trading with elliots please? is there any way to confirm whether a wave is confirmed.Just some time time ago i saw on the hourly a possible 1-2-3-4 wave? am awaiting a 5th one,but i am also aware that these waves are relative and this cuoming wave may not be wave 5 at all and price may move against me. Is there any way to confirm other than:

1)Wave 3 should be longer than wave 1.
2)Wave 4 shouldn't overlap with 1.

These 2 conditions are fulfilled,so what other confirmations should i look for to make sure it is indeed a 1-2-3-4 wave that has happened on the 1-hour chart some time back today.

Cheers all.
TIA:-)

Gen dk 18:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia NYK 18:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
what's about rate decision???

Wien GD 18:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Thx GEP - closed that possy at +59 pips.
What do you think about EUR/CAD and CHF/JPY... probably a little bit too early for a short?

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Sorry That would be GD

Dallas GEP 17:26 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
WD, If I were long I would TP around 1.3175

Dallas GEP 17:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
I think very possibly the highs for the session have already been set for AUSSIE at .7177, Euro 1.2287, EUR/YEN 135.90, and 1.8441 GBP/USD

Wien GD 17:20 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP: what do you feel about USD/CAD ... looks a bit tired ... time for profit taking?

San Diego bobl 16:37 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Toronto K...
I suggest you contact Jay at Global View. He probably can offer some suggestions on reading etc. If you would like some bottom line answers to your questions I could answer them for you. I'm not sure what Global-view's policy is on giving someone's email address out so I suggest you start there.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 16:27 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 15:31 GMT August 9, 2004 ]
I think after touch 1.8410 chart will rest,so I suggest to exit and wait time action again for entry.

Toronto K 16:20 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Complete Newbie question.

Sofar I have traded stocks (end of day, position trading), and am looking to broaden my scope. I'm looking for information related specifically to trading currencies, (not on general technical/fundamental trading), but

- how the currency markets work, who are the players & how do they impact the market
- what's the relationship between the currencies market and other market factors (fundamentals, commodities, bonds ..)
- about futures , and trading futures in currency markets

I know that there's a ton of stuff out there, but does anyone have a recommendation ( one or two books) to start me off.

Appreciate this, and thanks for any leads K

wisconsin tim 15:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 01:59 GMT August 9, 2004
long aud/$ 7155

closed position here at +19 will await break above weekly or retrace to buy more

Van jv 15:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
seems waiting range ahead of tomorrows FED---expected +.25% /0-.25/

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
THX WB, been doing it intensely for past couple of weeks. BTW until it breaks and it may break soon 1.8375/80 is good long on GBP with 1.8365 stop

Los Angeles ss 15:31 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- is this a good area to short GBP/USD???

chester wb 15:20 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
good to see you posting again gep

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:11 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
I think better exit your buy gbp/usd from 1.8380 area when touch 1.8410. safety profit for short term.

London JZ 15:10 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
For Global View: Which is please your email address?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 14:49 GMT August 9, 2004
gbp/usd., I think have time maximal only 150 minutes from now to stay here.maybe before 150 minutes move up fast.

Dublin Flip 14:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
No worries mate.
Be lucky

GOLD COAST MARTIN 14:55 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 14:28 GMT August 9, 2004

Appreciate your advice...will look into it..
best trades

Global-View 14:55 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
If anyone wants an explanation for keeping broiker talk off our forums, feel free to email us about this or anhything else..

Los Angeles ss 14:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas -- what do you think of GBP / USD now?

Belgrade Knez 14:45 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:43 GMT August 9, 2004

LOL I know you have enough of this, but while market is calm, just wanna sort out this issue.
No more posts from me regarding this matter.
Sorry if I was bothering any of the GV member.

GL & GT to all.

Bruxville Jim 14:43 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade guys, thank you. Excuse me for picking on you. Good trades.

Belgrade Knez 14:41 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 14:39 GMT August 9, 2004

oh, I didn't know that. So when you say Belgrad, you mean Belgrade!

Belgrad KZ 14:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
yes

Belgrade Knez 14:37 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 14:33 GMT August 9, 2004

Are you working in Belgrade in Serbia?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:37 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/usd now !!
seen ready to fly from now.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:35 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:27 GMT August 9, 2004
thanks for your question.
we must remember about wide ranging bar when payroll be announced, so corection to get 1.8380 or 1.8338 is so ideal pattern. I say this because I think not reversal pattern.

Belgrad KZ 14:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
What`s the problem guys? I`m bulgarian, but most of the time I`m in Belgrad, where I`m working!

Belgrade Knez 14:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 14:29 GMT August 9, 2004
Bruxville Jim 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004

I am from Belgrade, Sebia, and I persume that Belgrad is town in Bulgaria.

GL & GT



Sebia=Serbia

Global-View 14:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ldn. Your email got bounced. Contact us so we can reply to your post.

Belgrade Knez 14:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004

I am from Belgrade, Sebia, and I persume that Belgrad is town in Bulgaria.

GL & GT

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:28 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd have broken 1.8178 and give message to get 0.7248, but ideally move down for a while. now is selling time, target maximal at 0.7036 before fly to get 0.7248.

Dublin Flip 14:28 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin I have two brokers. One well known online British group and one australian bank (they should all be very good down there). It means I can day trade on online as little or as often as I like and keep my longer term positions seperate with the bank, recieved better funding and get better service when it's really needed (leaving stops over major numbers). Point being just like in a bank you need a couple of liquidity options. You may deal all day on ebs or r2002 but if you need something special you go direct. Variety is the spice of life.
either way I would never deal with anyone who isn't guarnteed by the BOE or RBA (or equivilent) or has not been around for a very long time.

Bruxville Jim 14:27 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Raden Mas. What is so ideal regarding 1.8593? TIA.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
if show you 1.8370 that's mean confirmation to get 1.8338, but if like this, 1.8593 seen difficult caused by oscilation pattern only maximal at 1.8431

sgp sp 14:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jim,

Bruxville Jim 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004
Belgrad[e] guys// Your titles are suspiciously similar... gl.

I can vouch for Belgrade Knez...he is who he says he is. Know him for quite some time already...as for the other, I have no idea who he/she is. :)
gt 2 u.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd ideal move up from 1.8380 to get 1.8593..TOP

Bruxville Jim 14:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
lnd 13:58 GMT // Of course, there's no making money if your broker doesn't allow taking profits... still, the owner of the forum is the king here...

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hello..

GOLD COAST MARTIN 14:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   


USA Biscuit Boy 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004

Thanks for the advice ..i think you are right..time to trade direct with a bank..good trades to you...

USA Biscuit Boy 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Looks like tight range until FOMC. As usual the speech will be more important than the expected 25bp hike.....if accommodative language remains (almost certain IMO) I am expecting another round of dollar selling. From anecdotal evidence looking for further weak US data for July but August seems to be picking up already and heading into xmas with low rates spending likely to continue to gather steam. In short I am expecting further range trading with downward dollar bias for the next month and probably good idea to take profit in the same old places and then think about building long dollar positions.

Martin whats up buddy....time to trade with a bank perhaps? A few good ones in Oz to choose from....a friend raves about MACQ :)

Bruxville Jim 14:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad[e] guys// Your titles are suspiciously similar... gl.

Belgrade Knez 14:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 14:06 GMT August 9, 2004

Thanks.

Belgrad KZ 14:06 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
+1,1%!

Belgrade Knez 14:05 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   

Anyone have US data please?

Belgrad KZ 14:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q u are bullish on USD vs. CAD, but can u be more specific? TIA

Dallas GEP 14:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
test

leeds jb 13:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
if i siad does instead of dose, would that make a difference

Belgrad KZ 13:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Does nobody have comments on USD/CAD and the levels I posted earlier?

lnd 13:58 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Not wanting to be rude to our hosts but most people come here not to talk or chit chat but to get ideas on how to make money and lots of it. If the mechanism through which you make this money is at fault even if you have the right view/idea for a trade then for me that is important. I for one am interested in what jim and crew are saying as I am small time trader dealing with spread betting but eventually I want to move on to a better method but not be stopped from taking my money away from the table when I do win. This is what makes the fourm so useful for me. IMHO.

hk ab lazy 13:56 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
111 could almost be seen.
rafe, did you add?

hk ab lazy 13:55 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
bull doubts on aud/jpy struggles?

hk ab lazy 13:53 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
sell little aud .7180 limit.

Global-View 13:52 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Jim, you are free to email us and we will explain our policies, which have worked well to keep our forums market oriented and unquie among discussion sites.

ln 13:52 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 13:19 GMT. why did they not tell me below 70?

Bruxville Jim 13:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 13:21 GMT // They discourage broker talk, I guess (question is - why?). but that shouldn't prevent you from participating in this forum - there's more to FX than choosing the right broker.

hk ab lazy 13:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
but looks retracment from oversold more.

leeds jb 13:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
dose the 14.00gpm wholesale inventories for june have the abillity to move the market. any ideas

hk ab lazy 13:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Is it what someone saying this morning? DOWJ 2nd leg?

Ldn 13:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy Both.

hk ab lazy 13:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
IF I was the BIG usd bear on last Fri who enter on stop orders, will I risk the bets on the table before tomorrow?
I would rather add later....
but it's good, look mkt caught long now above 1.2250.

hk ab lazy 13:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
No offence, but just curious to ask.

hk ab lazy 13:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
LDN//Do you trade at all? or just advertising the bearish USD everyday?

Ldn 13:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Model Funds Still Looking To Add To Kiwi Longs

Ldn 13:31 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Models Buying Euro /USD Oil Jitters Resume

hk ab lazy 13:26 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
come, on aud/jpy....tell the truth plz....
why japs sold gold since April....
many japs are still waiting for the 8x.xx to unload their tonnes of carry...

Bruxville Jim 13:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Florida// Another type of brokers - they allow you to retain and accumulate profits through favorable spreads and instant execution - and they benefit from you TRADING more (not LOSING more) as you have more capital. I've mentioned one example earlier.
FSA regulations are an important guarantee of reliability. The g company is regulated by law of Belize (an off-shore) instead.
There are many people in the world that are to hook on these censored. And this is a pity.

hk ab lazy 13:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
anyone got the update of the trade deal between China and AUssie this morning?

FloridA vv 13:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bummm
Here we are my post dissapeared and the name of the company in Martin's post too. Well well Nothing strange this site is on the side of those companies.
Bye then.

Ldn 13:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Dips Are For Buying
IFR

hk ab lazy 13:16 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
why rush to sell USD......
same old point: liquidity problem....

lnd 13:14 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN. sorry to hear that someone is stealing your money. it is good to know and we appreciate you sharing your experience with us on this forum. gl with the exits.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 13:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
FLORIDA..have just recently opened corporate account with ........Lucky i only funded the account small time just to test them out...i have several corporate accounts with other platforms and while encountering problems rarely trades get executed eventually..but with these guys it is as if they just dont want you to be in positive positions...i can open positions but cannot close them when positive..but can close them when they are negative without a problem..sorry about the long post but want to prevent traders with parting with their hard-earned cash...cheers

Bruxville Jim 13:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin - I guess you can post the info on HELP forum... That should be of benefit to many people... gl.

NYC 13:00 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Fed May Slow Rate Increases as Job Growth Shrivels (Update1)

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve's benchmark U.S. interest rate tomorrow may be the last until after the presidential election because of an unexpected plunge in job creation, say a growing number of economists and former Fed officials.

``The Fed has to give pause at some point until it gets some greater clarity on the pace of economic growth,'' said Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, who predicts no change in rates next month. ``An accelerated rate hike schedule doesn't make sense.''

The bond market had its biggest weekly gain since January after the Labor Department said the economy added 32,000 jobs in July, less than one-seventh of the number forecast by many economists. While at least 21 of the 22 so-called primary dealers who trade bonds directly with the Fed say the central bank will raise the overnight lending rate between banks to 1.5 percent when Chairman Alan Greenspan meets with the Federal Open Market Committee tomorrow, the consensus for a September increase is unraveling.

Economists at a third of the primary dealers said the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates until after the Nov. 2 election between President George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts. As recently as a week ago, at least six primary dealers said the Fed would raise interest rates at each of the central bank's four remaining meetings this year. ... See full update

NYC 12:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Economists Lower 3rd-Qtr U.S. GDP Forecast in Survey (Update1)

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Economists reduced their forecasts for U.S. economic growth this quarter amid concerns record oil prices and meager job gains will sap consumers' ability to spend, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey.

The world's largest economy will probably grow at a 3.9 percent annual rate from July through September, slower than the 4.2 percent estimated last month, according to the median of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. For the year, the economy is forecast to grow 4.4 percent, a tenth of a percentage point less than what was estimated in the June survey.

``The high energy prices are taking a toll on consumers and now, with less hiring, there is less income as well,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. DeKaser marked down his estimate for third-quarter growth to 3.7 percent from 4.8 percent.

Hiring slowed for a fourth month in July as businesses added 32,000 employees to payrolls, the fewest this year. Anxiety over possible supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices to a record last week. Less hiring and higher fuel costs may knock consumer spending and give the Federal Reserve greater pause as they consider interest-rate increases this year, starting with Tuesday's meeting.

The Fed's target for the benchmark overnight bank lending rate will reach 1.5 percent by the end of the third quarter, according to the survey median, implying policy makers will hold the rate steady at either their meeting tomorrow or the one on Sept. 21. The median forecast calls for the target to reach 2 percent by the end of the year. See full update

Riga RIA 12:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
good NOKSEK n EURNOK selling from German names thru stops 8.32 to 8.3000 , we cud holds abv 8.2950 now , expect 8.2950/35 at mom.....EURCZK nice drop to 31.40 with next tgt 31.20...GL

Bruxville Jim 12:55 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin - who was it recommended by?

Dallas GEP 12:55 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin, I had the same problem with one of my platforms and the only way I could get out is by entering an order

FloridA vv 12:54 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
MARTIN Share your experience nail the scammers What "company" you are with?

Dallas GEP 12:53 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
SP I am not going to waste my time on this with you. You are unaware of the lot sizes as I said with each entry, I could care less what you think. I have several accounts in this same scenario, mine and others. This is my last comment on this. WASTE of TIME!!!

GOLD COAST MARTIN 12:51 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
fwiw..While your guys are arguing about exit and entry positions my platform has not been allowing me to exit positions that are positive...so much for state of the art automatic execution...i feel like i am playing chess with a super computer...every time i am in a winning position it does not let me exit ...it one of the recommended platforms in this forum...just a note of caution...g/t

hk ab lazy 12:45 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Laowen, if yo have a chance to exit the aud/jpy short, try it.

I have a feeling that those bulls have a strong desire to crash the 80 line. However, the chance of succeeding and not succeeding will be even.

My pic. is that this 80 line will be held till Sept and aud/jpy will be flirting around 80 line +/- 30 pips.

GL and GT.

Summersville SP 12:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Thats mathematically impossible. Your "average" on how many lots was 134.45. Then sold more at 134.97, trippling up I assume. Then you sold again at 135.87. So you think you have an average at 135.55? Fictitiuos trading is one thing. At least do the math before you BS everyone here.

Dallas GEP 12:41 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Great SP. While you are checking the archive. maybe you should verify my statements RE: the fact that I thought the USD would rebound today, that USD/CHF was a good long from 1,2500, that usd/cad was a good long from 1.3100 etc. etc. etc. All of that would be a good use of your time. LOL

Dallas GEP 12:32 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
y, the answer to that question can be misleading unless you are aware of the relative lot size each time. ON the yen pairs I have been entering 1/2 my normal lot size each time. ESPECIALLY on gbp/jpy` SO average NOW based on 1 1/2 my normal lot size is 135.55 stop @ 136.15 and target 135.20

Summersville SP 12:26 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Not to worry, I will check the archive.

Summersville SP 12:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,

How many times did you short Eur/Jpy? What is your average and stop loss please?

Dallas GEP 12:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Jim I got out of some of them at +30 but I have more left effective cost 135,20. I just NOW added more at 135.87 with 136,15 stop

Belgrad KZ 12:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dr.Q thanks! If u think so, what`s your target? My sell orders at 3170, 3195 and 3230! Pls friends any tips appreciated!
TIA

Bruxville Jim 12:17 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi, GEP. Are you out of those E/Y shorts?

Melbourne Qindex 12:16 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Belgrad KZ 12:15 GMT - USD/CAD : It is a buy!

Melbourne Qindex 12:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It took so long to see 1.2246.

Belgrad KZ 12:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Interesting move in USD/CAD
Dr.Q what`s your opinion about it! I think its close to sell levels! IMO

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab lazy 12:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad smacked hard by crosses.

jf//have you moved to Tokyo yet?

hk ab lazy 12:02 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ln// it's up to you. Today, the bias is slightly bias towards the long side.

Dallas GEP 12:02 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
YEN pairs breaking long

Dallas GEP 11:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/gbp shorts at BE.

ln 11:56 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 11:19 GMT. woudl you wait for the 50% fib or anything before?

hk ab lazy 11:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Trades on the coming days are pretty straightforward, if you are USD bear, wait till those fib level from the crazy Fri. hit before entering with stops on hrly, 30 mins t/l.

IF you are USD bull, wait till some ma support hit to enter, don't chase. (If the move is fast, last Fri. low could be the added entry with stop below).

hk ab lazy 11:16 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Two reasons I am against those "carry-trade" talks.....
1)If rate differentials is such a major factor, dlr/jpy, eur/jpy, gb/jp should be at 150, 200, 300 respectively.
eur/chf should have hit 1.6 long long ago.

2)Low rate and Low USD HAVE BEEN PROVED to fail to cure the deficit problem over the last two years. So, why bother FED needs to concern the high/low USD? Indeed, LOW USD cause the deficit widen due to the larger imports values.

Leave these talks well to those infamous commentators.

Strongly agree with bc that REAL money (esp. hot ones) flow is the long term move of currencies.
The lower the USD, the more monies gone. It's really sth explicit now.

hk ab lazy 11:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Rafe// No short or long order limits hit on dlr/jpy, hope that your short have taken profit.

I will decide if 111 prints, if not sideline for a while first.

China Byron 11:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
nt// Just checking chart in China... nice move on aussie and kiwi... your 0.6950 MT long view is great!!!

hk ab lazy 11:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
all good.
Laowen, the aud/jpy 80 line will tell us truth soon on aud....

Melbourne Qindex 10:57 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas DH 10:56 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Tight consolidations all over. Many staying on the sidelines until the FOMC decision.

Roumeli anka 10:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Asia and London dont willing to sell more $. Could NY latter on ? What do you think ?

eur lg 10:14 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Random Thoughts:
1- Fed could raise zero tomorrow. Measured to me means measured. Recent soft date doesn't measure up to rate hike, in my mind.
2- As was pointed out below, in an environment of high oil prices and heavy dependence on oil, the yen should be vulnerable especially given todays unfortunate nuclear accident. The risk is sometimes bad news is good for the yen due to repatriation.
3. Most logical positions to me are still long eur/jpy (saw a tech thing this mng saying buy 135.30 stop 134.10 target 138 and later 141), and short eur gbp.

London 10:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
The RBA delivered a hawkish policy message Mon also given the broad USD weakness, the AUD should make progress. outperformance of Tsys lately, interest rate spreads moving in AUD's favor and an AUD/USD move back to 0.7200 is likely.
ABN Amro

Gen dk 10:02 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 09:56 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
09.08.2004 (4.00am US Time).

COULD FED RISE RATE MORE THAN 25PB?


USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 110.42) – RESULT FRIDAY`S VERY WEAK US DATA WAS SALE OFF USD. USD/JPY FIND SUPPORT AT 109.80 REGION. CLOSE BELOW 110.70 AT FRIDAY MIGHT SUGGEST NEXT FALLS TO 109.00 REGION.. BUT IF TODAY USD COULD BACK TO 110.70 AND CLOSE THE DAY ON THIS REGION IT WOULD HELP BULLS IN NEXT BATTLE BY HIGHER REGIONS.

EUR/USD(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2260) – COURSE EUR/USD STOPPED AT 61,8 REGION, ANNULMENT OF FALL WCHICH WAS STARTED 19 JULY 2004
(EUR/USD IS LITTLE ABOVE NOW), THEY SHOULDN`T BREAK 1.2271 WHAT COULD SUGGEST NEXT RISES. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE - 1.2340/60 SUPPORT 1.2215 AND 1.2165 ( LOOK: FIBONACCI ). GENERALLY NOTHING IS IN THE WAY TO TEST 1.2460 PERHAPS FED RISE RATE BY 50 PB AND NOT BY 25PB.

USD/CHF(CURRENT LEVEL 1.2550) – BEARS KEPT VERY IMPORTANT 1.2840 REGION. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE FROM 1.2500 REGION THE NEAREST RESISTANCES - 1.2575 AND 1.2635. WE HAVE POSIBILITY TO TEST 1.2400 REGION IN THIS WEEK.

GBP/USD(CURRENT LEVEL 1.8415) – FRIDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.8390 SUGGEST RISES EVEN TO 1.8700 REGION IN THIS WEEK. SUPORT AT 1.8300 REGION.

London 09:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Iran Confirms Kidnapping Of Diplomat In Iraq
TEHRAN (AP)--Iran Monday confirmed that one of its diplomats in Iraq was kidnapped, a day after militants in Iraq said they had taken a top Iranian diplomat hostage.

Melbourne Qindex 09:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected]om if you have no access to my page.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 09:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
....It seems my platform is again lagging 3 pips behind the market in euro /usd...not very impressed...gee..cee..ai...just like last friday.....

Surabaya Medallion 09:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
It seems peoples are still warry of taking position ahead of FOMC meeting on Tuesday. Short Euro for me whenever it hit 1.228.

Gen dk 08:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Riga RIA 08:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
SA holiday today the price action could be volatile. Very possible hold 6.20/6.05 range, talk abt good offers ahead 6.20/22 n stops below 6.10/....GL

ln 08:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
syd 08:06 GMT. they woudl say that...the facts are better hidden to prevent panic. dont touch yen until it has been confirmed.

Riga RIA 08:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
07.00gmt - Hungary - Trade / CSO mth EUR (June) - median 240m (last -338m)

11.00gmt - Poland - 52wk T-Bills auction
...............................................................Expect choppy EURPLN range 4.36/42 n quiet EURHUF 247/248 now...GL

Beijing Laowen 08:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ab, good time to short some aud/jpy? I sold one lot @ 79.09

Makati Obelix 08:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, could i know your views on GBP/Yen?

syd 08:06 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Kansai Elec: No Radiation Leakage In Fukui Accident

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
There has been an accident at the Fukui nuclear plant in Japan. Kansei Electric has just said they are shutting it down. Isnt Japan vulnerable enough to high oil prices without losing sources of alternative power?

Anyone else feel this might push usd/yen and eur/yen higher?

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:58 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 07:49 GMT August 9, 2004
sorry jim...should have been precise...actual leverage is 1:5 on corporate..1:15 on personal...cheers

Melbourne Qindex 07:52 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bruxville Jim 07:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin, I mean what is the leverage of your trade/position. Real leverage used not maximum available... I also have 1:100 to 1:200 available, but I usually use 1:5-1:15.

London 07:47 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Beware the return of the carry trade!
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve will more than likely stick to its expected schedule and raise interest rates by 25 basis points Tuesday, Friday's disappointing non-farm payrolls numbers have lowered expectations of further rate rises thisyear.
"The Fed is not going to go above 2% if that," said Charles Dumas, chief U.S. economist with Lombard Street Research in London.
Before Friday's payroll data, the Fed was expected to raise rates every month between now and the end of the year, taking the Fed funds rate to as high as 2.5%.
The sharp downturn in rate expectations is likely to spark just what many dollar bulls have feared: a return to carry trades in which investors sell the low-yielding dollar in favor of high-yielding currencies elsewhere.
This could push the U.S. currency out of the trading ranges it has established in the past few weeks and send it reeling down to levels seen earlier this year.
"Investors have spent a lot of this year getting out of their dollar shorts in anticipation that U.S. rates are rising," said Michael Metcalfe, senior currency strategist with StateStreet Bank in London.
"Now there is plenty of room for these (short positions) to be reestablished," he added. "This will encourage investors back into positions they had at the start of the year."
Certainly, last Friday's payrolls numbers were far worse than anyone was expecting. By rising only 32,000 last month, instead of by 215,000 as the market had expected, the data have cast serious doubt over just how fast the U.S. economy is recovering.
Until now, the market was taking Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan at his word, assuming the soft spell in the second quarter was now over and that economic growth was rebounding to the levels seen earlier in the year.
(Reuters)

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
sydney..he!he!...i stay away from it...forex is enough headaches....

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
BRUXVILLE.....have different leverage on different accounts..on personal have 200:1 LEVERAGE.....on corporate accounts have 100:1 leverage....cheers

Bruxville Jim 07:41 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin, may I ask, what's the leverage you use?

Sydney 07:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN been to the casino a few times

Tallinn viies 07:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
fridays action was totally real thing.
got stopped out at 1,2134.
for today I see too much air inside the euro.
guess FED decision about rates should be done deal. 25 bips hike included, although right now markets seems to doubt if it really done deal. so, basically tommorow after Fed decision we could see relief rally for the dollar.
plan for today:
anything near 1,2280-1,2320 would be nice sell area.
anything near 1,2160-1,2200 would be nice area to try long position.
what Im saying is we are closer to selling area....
gt

London JZ 07:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
-Is anyone using 'Currenex' with RREEFFCCOO?

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY...no tipple today friend ..may need one though until trend is re-established...situated at broadbeach....

London JZ 07:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone using 'Currenex' with censored?

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:27 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
FWIW..still hold aud day 7155 short with 7185 stop ...target 7095-7105...g/t

Sydney 07:26 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN I am familar with the Gold Coast what area are you

Sydney 07:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN should stop the lunch time tipple

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
..DID IT AGAIN...EURO TARGET..12195-12205...g/l

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY...Thats correct....last post was regarding euro...should have read...had euro short at 12075 with tight 12085 stop...stopped out at 12085 and re-entered with target 12095-12205..posting and trading sometimes not always compatible...cheers.....

Melbourne Qindex 07:17 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Sydney 07:13 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN Aussie high today 71.66 ??

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
That should read stopped.....g/l

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Sopped out of aussie short at 7185 but re-entered at 7187 as i believe aussie has good downside potential today ..target...7095-7105

Haifa ac 06:56 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Equities. For all the weakness in the dow and the nasdaq--Europe is showing impressive resilience. There is a double bottom on the World dow (DJRW2 in CQG) at the 143 level. Friday seems to have been only a test of that DB. IF this is correcto--we may have rather surprising strengh in equities soon.

houston st 06:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
eur pairs showing a little weakness the last few minutes...good trades today.

hk ab 06:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, you mentioned about cycle day of eur, any update? THANKS.

plovdiv joyrex 06:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   


Ldn 06:36 GMT

Close on what time frame you mean? hourly, half-hourly?

TIA

Ldn 06:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Euro -overall sentiment is bullish and dealers report bids building at 1.2250 as investors look to build positions into a dip. The multi day high at 1.2290 is the initial resistance and a close above here targets a test of 1.2350, the high on July 21.

hk ab 06:14 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
What is nzd suffered from?

aud/nzd?

hk ab 06:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
nt// have you got any aussie at hands?

Belgrade Knez 05:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   

Heard on news two days ago that AlQaeda worned Italy to pull out their troops from Iraq until 15th of August, otherwise Italy will be in blood, and no place will be safe there!

Bgd PS 05:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   

Ldn...............thanks.

Ldn 05:31 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Iraq

Melbourne Qindex 05:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bgd PS 05:28 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:21 GMT August 9, 2004

Please tell me where is that?

Ldn 05:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Car Bomb Explodes In Baqouba Targeted Diyala Province Deputy Gov - Police

London 04:32 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia thanks ,but no thanks, Drudge has enough of it for me.

sf mike 04:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Anybody here trade with Wells Fargo Bank?

melbourne farmacia 04:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Well London, if you're interested in where some of this intelligence is coming from... try this Arabic Forum Qal3ah.... just be warned, your computer id will be monitored.

CA Clouy 04:05 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 04:02 GMT August 9

No worry, what u get from the demo is just same as from the live acc.
eur/usd is still a bit higher than 200MA. But, who knows.
gd nt.

Beijing Laowen 04:02 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Clouy, My live trading plan is to look to LONG eur/usd, aud/usd and usd/jpy @ some level after they retrace, as the trends imply...

Beijing Laowen 04:00 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:36 GMT August 9, 2004 //

I am with a demo account of G F T, mate. I found the price was weird @ as low as 78.23/27 so I closed a my short possie from 78.57 and was confirmed and gained the 30 pips profit! :-)))

I believe the correct price should have been around 78.93/98. If this is the case with the live account, I wonder if they would let you own that profit.

I noticed only this pair was quoted in such a frozen price.

KL KL 03:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Having shorted eurusd earlier does not mean I am $ bull or bear just a trading opportunity....will long it or SAR later today or into tuesday. These days it takes one figure to move market...depending on the fancy of BIG boys....

London 03:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
TIME MAG DETAILS EVIDENCE OF POSSIBLE AL-QAEDA ATTACK ON U.S. ‘This is looking more real every day,’ says senior intelligence official
Sun Aug 08 2004 09:59:10 ET

FBI official warned a congressional leader he and others could be targeted in Washington and on trips around U.S.

New York – An FBI official warned a congressional leader that he and other top legislative officials could be targeted by al-Qaeda in Washington or on their trips around the country, TIME has learned. The warning came two days before Ridge issued his nationwide alert.

TIME reveals exclusive new detail of al-Qaeda attack plans, in the cover story/special report “Al-Qaeda in America. Inside the Terrorist Group’s Plot to Attack the U.S. Can We Get to Them Before They Strike?” (on newsstands Monday, Aug. 9).

Assessing the accumulation of evidence of a possible attack inside the U.S., a senior intelligence official tells TIME, “This is looking more like the real deal every day.” TIME also learns that Osama bin Laden may already have ordered up another attack: a top homeland security official tells TIME “We have a number of times picked up information that al-Qaeda wants to attack us before the election, and some of the communications attribute that desire to Osama bin Laden.”

Though surveillance for the al-Qaeda attack plans seized July 24 was mostly done in 2000 and 2001, “there remains plenty of cause for concern,” according to TIME. A surveillance report notes windows behind the six columns in front of the New York Stock Exchange building make it appear “a little fragile.” Operatives specifically discuss using “usual methods” such as a heavy gas truck or oil tanker to attack facilities. Surveillance of helicopter ports and cockpits in New York City suggest al-Qaeda has investigated using them for an airborne attack.

A U.S. law-enforcement official told TIME that a recent Pakistani intelligence report made available to senior U.S. intelligence and security officials offers details of alleged al-Qaeda plans to use speedboats and divers for attacks in New York harbor before the November 2004 elections.

TIME has learned that one seized disc contains an updated photo of the Prudential Building in Newark, New Jersey that was added in January of this year. Operatives noted it might be difficult to drive a truck or van into the Prudential’s underground parking garage. So they proposed acquiring a black limo, gutting all but the front seat and presumably filling the empty portion with explosives, TIME reports. They also discussed using an oil truck to ram through the front entrance. Information on New Jersey Transit passenger rail systems and PATH train timetables suggested al-Qaeda may have been exploring ways to escape after pulling off the attack, TIME reports.

A senior U.S. intelligence official tells TIME that the three laptop computers and 51 discs seized in a July 24 raid in Pakistan represent an unprecedented “treasure trove” of information about al-Qaeda’s determination to pull off more acts of catastrophe on U.S. soil. “The discs revealed far more detailed, wide-ranging and current research” than has been made public, a source tells TIME. A senior law-enforcement force tells TIME the FBI is pursuing information from computer files that may lead to al-Qaeda members in the U.S. Perhaps a half-dozen individuals are believed to have been in contact with at least one of three men apprehended in Pakistan.

Developing...

CA Clouy 03:36 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 03:21 GMT August 9, 2004

i'm with it. Both are same on the prices.

Still holding short possie on eur/usd?

GL & GT

wisconsin tim 03:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
yeah the live platform's been wishy-washy the last week. "Apparently" they upgraded servers and such, now why they'd do that in the middle of the week with all the USD data coming out last week is beyond me.

Seems stable now though

Los Angeles bernie 03:31 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
79.04 to buy right now on censored

Beijing Laowen 03:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Thanks tim. Was the live account platform of G F T frozen on Friday morning 08:30~08:50 EST?

wisconsin tim 03:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
78.91

Beijing Laowen 03:21 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi anybody is using G F T? I am playing with a demo account of G F T, where Aud/Jpy is now at 78.23/27 and can be traded at this price, while I see on other platforms it is 78.92/95. Whoever is using a live account with G F T could tell me what the price of Aud/Jpy on the live platform is. Interesting.

London 03:08 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Pakistan has given American officials what they regard as credible and specific information indicating that Al-Qaida has considered using tourist helicopters in terror attacks in New York City, domestic security officials said. As a result, the officials said, security measures for helicopter operators will be stepped up in a new directive as early as this week. Among the new measures under review is a requirement to screen passengers for suspicious items, said an official with the Department of Homeland Security who had been briefed on the plan. So far, no groundings of helicopter operators are planned.
The New York Times reports in its Monday edition.

Ldn 03:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew
I think your correct , even if the Fed hikes another 25bp it is a long way from the 5% that we will soon see in the UK and 55% AUS and 6% Kiwi another possible 12 months before even close. Terrorism is a big negative on the USD GT

LA fxnew 02:51 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
I think traders preferr to long gbp/usd since the effect of friday is still there.

I would say gbp/usd will hit 1.8500 today.

melbourne farmacia 02:51 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
chester wb - yes

CA Clouy 02:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 02:32 GMT August 9, 2004
Dallas GEP, you may be right and looking at hourly they all seems overbought

KL, I second to u on the hourly chart. But according to mass psychology theory, crowd may have fear because of the sign of weak usd eco. and run out of holding $.

chester wb 02:38 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
farmacia--may I ask jay for your e-mail--I have some fib related questions I want to ask you -tia

Dallas GEP 02:32 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
These levels with tight stops SHOULD work; USD/CAD long from 1.3100, USD/CHF long from 1.2500

KL KL 02:32 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, you may be right and looking at hourly they all seems overbought and I am a seller until near tuesday....my fear is the suprise aggresive rate hike in USD and rate drop in EUR....after all might as well get all the bad news out and have the run up to US election set up nicely for the bush camp

Dallas GEP 02:27 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY has great influence on AUD/USD and it's bias is SHORT. SHORT term my view is AUD/USD is a short to at least .7120.

Dallas GEP 02:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
If you look at the last 5 NFP data annoucements, the USD the next day has rebounded. History doesn't alwys repeat itself but I think the pattern is clear

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Too bad about columbia...and I don't think any place is safe from these terrorists.

They even had the airports in mumbai on alert, only place left now is the caribbean region a tourist and financial censored...

melbourne farmacia 02:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Aud/Usd - At least two rate hikes by year end ( ABC )

sydney 02:17 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
RBA now has clear tightening bias with "timing the only issue" says Michael Blythe, economist at CBA
RBA monetary policy "very upbeat", says Citigroup senior economist Annette Beacher, noting RBA revised up inflation forecast, very optimistic about international outlook, impact on exports;"it all seems to fall in place that further tightening is required." Adds it backs Citigroup forecast RBA to raise rates
A few bank views

houston st 02:14 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 02:07 GMT -- yes, and it's a beautiful stadium....next door to the old Astrodome - the "eighth wonder of the world" at one time...let me know the next time you are going to be here and we'll get together...Packers are in Houston on Nov. 21....that could be a barnburner....good trades.

Ldn 02:12 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Rafe
BOGOTA (AP)--A small bomb exploded at a crowded flower festival in Colombia's second city of Medellin, injuring 35 people, including eight children and a police officer, the mayor said. The homemade device went off Sunday on a bridge in the city center moments before a parade of vintage cars was due to start, one of the highlights of the annual weekend festival that draws thousands of tourists, Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo said. The festival continued because we are not going to give in to these barbarians and terrorists who destroy lives," Fajardo told reporters. He said most of the 35 people hurt by the bomb suffered only light injuries.
It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the attack. The bombing came as security forces were put on high alert amid fears that Marxist rebels might try to launch attacks this weekend when hardline President Alvaro Uribe celebrates two years in office. Four soldiers were killed late Saturday in an ambush by suspected members of the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in violence-wracked northeastern Arauca province, the army said in a statement.Alleged FARC guerrillas also mounted an assault Saturday against the town hall in San Calixto, a rural municipality 450 kilometers (280 miles) northeast of Bogota, leaving three police officers wounded and damaging buildings and a nearby energy plant, police said Sunday. Uribe has launched an unprecedented, U.S.-backed offensive to crush a 40-year-old Marxist insurgency and restore state authority to lawless provinces. While his tough security policies have reduced the number of kidnappings and killings in Colombia in the past two years, attacks continue. Colombia's civil war pits the FARC and a smaller rebel group against right-wing paramilitary factions and government forces, killing an estimated 3,500 people every year.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 02:11 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   


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China Byron 02:05 GMT August 9, 2004

Stop loss for aussie day trade is 7185....g/t

Sydney 02:09 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
It seems that the Australia's RBA statement stronger than many had expected indicating rates will go higher .

wisconsin tim 02:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
sl below 7100 init target hopefully 7340+

thanks, you have a couple beautiful stadiums down there in H-town was in the ballpark for a cubs game last year. Want to get to a f-ball game in the texans stadium as well, what is that Reliant Park?

China Byron 02:05 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 01:54 GMT // hi martin, may i know ur stop loss setting? TIA

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:05 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ldn// can you post the link?

TIA.

Ldn 02:04 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Bomb Hurts 35 At Colombia Flower Festival

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dlr/Yen bounced off my first stop level (becoming surer???) that this pair will short well.

110.42 110.60 110.78.

Ldn 02:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD "really horrible" U.S. July job data put USD in downtrend by cooling speculation over U.S. rate outlook, says Mizuho Corporate Bank's senior trader Dai Sato " market now inclined to sell the dollar across the board, the Aussie tends to lure more (investors) with its high interest rates" than other currencies. could hit 0.7300 in August.
Mizuho Bank Tky

houston st 02:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 01:59 GMT -- where are you putting your "cheesy" s/l and t/p's? tia and Go Packers!

wisconsin tim 01:59 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
long aud/$ 7155

GOLD COAST MARTIN 01:54 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Good Level to short aussie....7155...for day day....g/l..target..7112...g/t

Sydney 01:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Australia's RBA Adopts Tightening Bias

Australia's central bank shifted its policy focus away from house prices to emerging inflation pressures Monday, warning that it would be surprising if interest rates don't have to be lifted again. Indicators on the domestic economy are also strongly positive, with growth still running at "a good pace" and consumer confidence at its highest level in a decade.
The Reserve Bank also pointed to the impact of generous government handouts to families announced in May, saying the A$5 billion in fiscal stimulus was "significant."

Sydney 01:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Australian and Chinese officials are currently conducting a scoping study of a free trade agreement between the two nations. The study could be issued early next year. China is Australia's third-largest trading partner with fast growing two-way trade in 2003 totaling A$23.33 billion.



Ldn 01:40 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar Gains Slightly On RBA Rate Comments on more rate hikes needed

CA Clouy 01:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Close eur/usd short @.2268. Thx u GEP for ur view. Probably will short eur again @ .2280ish if seen.

syd 01:37 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
RBA

Rates Still Mildly Accommodative
CPI Likely To Bottom Out Around 2.0% Government Payments Provide Significant Econ Boost US Recovery Firmly Established
Econ Growth Continues At "Good Pace

dm 01:35 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
hawkish statement from rba , talks of further rate rises . should be supportive of aussie dollar

Melbourne Qindex 01:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 01:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney EM 01:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Near 2-Week Low; Fed May Skip Raising Rates in September
LINK
The current environment is U.S. dollar negative,'' said Robert Rennie, a currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. ``The market's debating two or three rate hikes this year instead of three or four.''

Ldn 00:54 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
According to Axle Rudolf ANALYSIS NZD/USD has a upward bias this week after last week forming minor uptrend line from July low; short-term outlook will stay positive while this trendline, at 0.6450 and rising about 0.0025/day, holds. Minor underlying resistance around 0.6600 but key resistance at 0.6647, 61.8% retracement of drop from February peak, which capped market in July - any clean break (at least one daily close) above this would be very bullish, triggering reverse head & shoulders potentially pointing back up to February peak of 0.7100 in subsequent weeks.
reuters

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:53 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ab// ur making me wish i had gbp/jpy, eur/data data now LOL

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:52 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
clouy// I sorta of was considering it.. but having a website was not part of it.

Almost undecided yet on what i will do about that signal service, whether to start it or to just trade normally. too many ppl in this biz anyway and well the crooks are spoiling the ethics of the business and putting a bitter taste in customers mouths, not sure if i want to work in that type of environment, also need proper track record going back longer than i have under my belt.

i guess whatever god intends, but for now nothing.

hk ab lazy 00:51 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, if I could have a chance to short dlr/jpy in the zones mentioned, I will exit the eur/jpy shorts first.

Dallas GEP 00:49 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2290-1.2260 TIGHT range for now is my view`

Brooklyn mhi 00:48 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Good night all

Dallas GEP 00:47 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
First support level on eur/jpy shorts would be this 135.30 level. THEN 134.90 area. Prior to BAD US numbers last week Eur/jpy was trading 133.50-134.50. GAPS exist in the 134.50-135.00 area that in theory SHOULD be filled.

Brooklyn mhi 00:46 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:44 GMT August 9, 2004
TY will wait for fed statement and keep all bets off thill then.

Ldn 00:44 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi
Market beginning to question sustainability of U.S. economic recovery after weak July jobs data, higher rates may no longer work in favor of USD, says JPMorgan FX analyst Junya Tanase. "When concerns are growing over the outlook of the U.S. economy, it's unlikely that further rate increases ahead will support the dollar, especially as credit tightening is basically not positive for the U.S. bond and equity markets

CA Clouy 00:43 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:41 GMT August 9, 2004
Clouy// website??? never had plans to put up one, sure it was me who said that?

Huh? haven't u considered a signal website before? sorry if I was wrong.

GL & GT.

GEP, what's ur view on eur/usd in short term? TIA.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:41 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Clouy// website??? never had plans to put up one, sure it was me who said that?

GL GT.

Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Clouy.....No I closed right before platform close and kept my Aussie shorts, E/JPY shorts and Eur/GBP shorts.

Dallas GEP 00:38 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
OK guys THX rE: aussie.

CA Clouy 00:38 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:18 GMT August 9, 2004
I'm short dlr/yen from current level targetting 109.50-24.

Hi Rafe, how's ur website? still in preparation?

GEP, are u still holding ur short position on eur/usd from Friday?

Brooklyn mhi 00:38 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:34 GMT August 9, 2004
Why?

Ldn 00:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Fed Rate Hike No Longer USD-Positive - JPM

dm 00:34 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
gep i do not believe it is a rate annouccement in aussie. What it is , is the reserve bank policy statement. Some are looking to see if the bank makes a hawkish stand . Which would be a step up from the last policy statement where they were somewhat concernec about a possible housing price lslowdown

Brooklyn mhi 00:33 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:29 GMT August 9, 2004
If under stood properly this is not rate hike meeting just Montery Policy Statement and consensus is no rate hike till after elections. Remeber PM Howard statement Sunday " doesn't see need for rate hike

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
ab// too early to know for sure yet and i don't bet the farm on it.. but i think (gut feeling) we have seen the high for the day already.. on dlr/yen 110.61.

111 for shorting probably not today 110.50 yes very likely.

CA Clouy 00:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:20 GMT August 9,

Thx u Dr. Q. The major part of Gendk's signal is posted at late night EST, which is really hard for me to follow. I do trust his view, tho.

Just shorted eur/usd @.2284. s/l @.2305. t/p: .2260.

Ldn 00:30 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
According to Axle Rudolf analyst
Key resistance at 1.2483 (61.8% retracement of drop from February peak), which capped market in July; any break would signal decent chance of return to February peak of 1.2929 in subsequent weeks

Brooklyn mhi 00:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
High of AUD/USD on friday .7157 Bid and today .7150 bid

Dallas GEP 00:29 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
OK guys so what is your view is a rate INCREASE already priced in on AUSSIE???

Brooklyn mhi 00:26 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:25 GMT August 9, 2004
1:30 GMT

hk ab lazy 00:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
all xxx/cad could be a long for 2 weeks?

Dallas GEP 00:25 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
What is the GMT on this RBA rate annoucement??

hk ab lazy 00:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
short aud .7150 just for day-trade.

hk ab lazy 00:24 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Rafe//Though, short on eur/jpy 135, 135.60.
but I have some desires to long dlr/jpy at the fig....

but if 110.50-111, i would like to go short.

Brooklyn mhi 00:23 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:18 GMT August 9, 2004
Where is your STOP?

nyc tony 00:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
As most all have said in the past Qindex, thanks for posting some of your analysis for free.

CA Clouy 00:22 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
To Mhi: Thanks.

Eur/usd just gives a turning signal. But I'm still a bit scared by weak signs of $ and all around usd bearish views. Any inputs on this pair is appreciated.

Melbourne Qindex 00:20 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 00:13 GMT - It is only a trading reference and you have to set up your trading strategy. Gen dk is more suitable, he will set up everything for you.

Brooklyn mhi 00:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei Correction from high of Friday. Currently @ 10,737.4

KL KL 00:19 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all...SHORT eurusd 1.2282...sl 18 pips above...looking for 122 or lower.... Waiting for to short pound and aud...

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:18 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
I'm short dlr/yen from current level targetting 109.50-24.

when i talk my book i lose on my trades.. but let's see what happens today.

Melbourne Qindex 00:18 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:17 GMT August 7, 2004
EUR/USD : One of my 44-day cycle references suggests that the market may reverse its course around 1.2304. The market rhythm of this cycle reference is represented by 250 pips. Therefore by adding or substracting 250 pips from 1.2304 one can find the rest of its resting stops, projected supporting or resistant points. The critical point is located at 1.2304 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2053. The current expected trading range is 1.2053 - 1.2304.

... 1.1553 - 1.1803 - (1.2053) // 1.2304* - 1.2554 - 1.2804 - 1.3054 ...

Brooklyn mhi 00:18 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 00:13 GMT August 9, 2004
Yo u need ot use your own judgement. But he gives you the extremes and trading range etc.

Melbourne Qindex 00:15 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
nyc tony 23:59 GMT - For a big time cycle (22-day, 44-day, monthly or 3-month projection) if the market can't reach the projected chart points at the beginning of the cycle we usually have to wait for the expiration, i.e. at the end of the cycle. Anyway there is sill no guarantee for anything.

CA Clouy 00:13 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 00:07 GMT August 9

Mhi, what did you find Dr. Q. system? Is it a grey box which still needs subscriber to do technical analysis partially? or a black box which can be simply used to set up entry/exit possie to get money in a flow? Is it good for day-trading? or just for position trading? TIA.

Dallas GEP 00:11 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
RE: Pound. I would be surprised to see a HIGH much past 1.8460

Ldn 00:11 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Fed's statement on rate decision Tuesday signal it's likely to take time raising rates after U.S. jobs disappointment, gold stands to benefit from renewed fund interest near to medium term, dealers say, in which case $405, $407, $410 levels targeted
reuters

CA Clouy 00:09 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
FYI: US homeland security adviser said on CBS "Face the Nation" on Sun that the US had received info about additional possible terror targets in the country including the [US CAPITOL] in Washington. NYT reported that the Pakistani whose arrest prompted an alert on threats to US financial institutions was in communication with al Qaeda operatives intent up disrupting the US elections.

Brooklyn mhi 00:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei tanking almost 200 point from high today

Brooklyn mhi 00:07 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
nyc tony 00:01 GMT August 9, 2004
I have used his analysis in the past and followed his Comments from end of 2001 and he is on the moeny

LA fxnew 00:06 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
gep:

what is your view on gbp/usd?

Will reach 8500 ???

Dallas GEP 00:03 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
Thnx Guys regarding AUSSIE annoucement

nyc tony 00:01 GMT August 9, 2004 Reply   
do you subscribe mhi or just use his freebies?

 




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