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Forex Forum Archive for 08/11/2004

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Brisbane L 23:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
N.Z. 2Q, June retail sales raises prospect of October rate hike beyond widely expected September increase ,OCR now at 6% no telling where it will end !!

hk ab lazy 23:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hm... can eur/jpy reach 200 pips today..... if so, I will exit and go for a 2 days holidays.

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
AB, I did earlier at 1.3257

Philadelphia caba 23:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
anyone long AUD/USD? tp 0.7350; sl 0.7090?

Global-View 23:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
If you are a "reasonably" experienced trader and would like to participate in our bi-weekly forex survey, send an email to [email protected] This is not meant to be a slight to our general membership but we are limiting participation as we develop this survey. We will consider a general survey after we build a history in this one.

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab lazy 23:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
now the mkt is controlled by Jap's hands again.

hk ab lazy 23:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP did you join YIPPEE to short dlr/cad?

Calabash TarHeel 23:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:58 GMT August 11, 2004

My friend, have a most pleasent evening. I am going to, take a break, eat dinner and watch the tube for a awhile.

Take Care

Brooklyn mhi 23:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:48 GMT August 11, 2004
When is the onset?

hk ab lazy 23:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 20:54 GMT August 11, 2004

Yup, thanks ;)

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:58 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel :
'am j..ous of you. that is the best life. Woman want yard man got to su..fer to make it pre...ty woman get g - friend to enjoy

that is our live for the sake pu..sie

Calabash TarHeel 22:55 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:47 GMT August 11, 2004
Good, glad things are going well for you. Weather has been great down here for several days, but that is getting ready to change. Good luck with your shrubs, love the condo life myself. No yard work.

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel : yes indeed the rain....good stuff for my shrubs. things going well over here, been sellin $cad lately foer few pip here and there. someone got to raid the pips. just watching and taking the best info from the best on forum and i thank GOD for them

Calabash TarHeel 22:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:34 GMT August 11, 2004

Everything is lovely, I knew 1.3255 flashed because my sell filled. Missed nzd short fill (6570) by one pip earlier today.
How is everything on your end. I Think we have some serious rain coming.

Mtl JP 22:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
L 22:13 /Thanx for the dream (for most). How does the old saw go: the more things change.. ?

Ta ma de! (ohlalla..)

Cash-strapped firms bend rules (The Standard)
Tim LeeMaster

Beijing's austerity drive is prompting a growing number of cash-strapped Chinese companies to bend - or even break - the rules to raise the cash they need to survive, economists said.

They are evading administrative roadbocks to domestic borrowing by applying for foreign currency loans which are then converted into yuan, diverting approved loans to other uses, and under-reporting production and investment in order to free up internally-generated cash.

I guess old habits are hard to break ?

London Paul 22:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
u have to use code to get the name of the platform

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 22:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel: how u doing over there.... hope all is well

Dallas GEP 22:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Paul those saxxxxxxo feeds just kill me!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 22:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Thanks

Calabash TarHeel 22:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT August 11, 2004
Was 1.3255 high just now on USD/CAD???

Yep, on my platform anyway

London Paul 22:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
i had 1.325450 bid on my platform

Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Was 1.3255 high just now on USD/CAD???

Dallas GEP 22:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
favorite timeframe is 30 minute Use 5 minute for entry and exits and DAILY to confirm trend

I think I missed that dammmm e/y short

Brisbane L 22:13 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The Changing face of China

YEN FOR A PROPERTY BOOM

With Britain's property boom on the wane, analysts say the wise money is being invested abroad. So where can you buy now and make hefty profits in the not-so-distant future?


Talk of a slow down is very premature - as said before its like the Industrial Revolution all over again

Ldn 21:53 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit Breaks Record
In the headlines this afternoon, the U.S. federal government ran a $69.16 billion budget deficit for July.
That figure puts the budget deficit for the first ten months of fiscal 2004 at a record $395.78 billion, far exceeding the $323.95 billion deficit that was incurred by this time in fiscal 2003. The U.S. Treasury is projecting a total deficit of $417 billion for fiscal 2004.

forbes news

CA Clouy 21:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP, newbie questions: Which time frame of MACD and Stochastic, u refer most frequently for ur intra-day trades? what is ur settings of MACDs? Do you use same settings for different pairs? Many thanks in advance.
GL & GT

Dallas GEP 21:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
YIPPIE, I like that possie very much.

U.K. J.B. 21:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I agree with that also Quebec. Ldn 20:54 made a very valid comment but i feel quite a bit of aussie has already been bought ahead of the uridashi issuance so looking for eur/cad and aud/cad to retrace lower GT

Quebec 21:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Also shorted Aud/Cad

U.K. J.B. 21:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Looking for a nice r/r trade again in these very quiet and range driven markets. Euro/cad short 1.6195 s/l 1.6235 tar 1.5800 adj. to be made to profit level if the trade moves onside 75 % exposure GL

NYC YIPPEE 21:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Selling USDCAD @ 1.3245 Stop 1.3265 target 1.3100.

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 21:11 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP :
thanks

Dallas GEP 21:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY shorts could be tried at 135.60 (good) or 135.80 (BETTER)

Ldn 20:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Aussie firmed today, on buying from overlay managers after
failed attempts to trigger stops below 0.7095. The uncertain outlook for the pace of Fed rate hikes and expectation of future hikes from the RBA added luster
to AUD. Aussie made a fresh session highs at 0.7155 as talk of coming Uridashi issuance spurred further buying. There is talk that both Aussie and German names will be out with fresh corporate issuance and with Japanese names rumored to be
buying both Aussie and bonds, the pieces seem to be falling into place, by clearing offers between 0.7150/0.7200,
a fresh uptrend will begin. Thursday sees Aussie employment and unemployment, expected 30k and 5.5% respectively.(ifr)

AB Your fix for today...

Dallas GEP 19:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Took AUD/CAD short @ .9470

Dallas GEP 19:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good point AD....AUD/CAD looks like a nice short from here also

Dallas GEP 19:38 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
NOTE: usd/cad seems to move alot more in US session BTW. Even when things are slower, CAD sometimes will move a littl. Just took usd/cad short @ 1.3257

GER ad 19:38 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CAD,
For the moment if somebody wants to buy CAD, IMHO is less dangerous to buy it on Crosses by any spike (AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD...) instead to sell the USD/CAD.

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Well a conservative TP is 1.3220. You Might could see 1.3200-1.3210 BUT I like to BANK pips a little EARLY rather than a little late

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 19:25 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP & Quebec:

what is ur recom on $cad tp? any help

Dallas GEP 19:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Quebec, that's what the passengers said on the Titanic too..."nice to see we are all on the same boat"

Quebec 19:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Nice to know that others are short too.

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 19:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim
sorry sold @ 13256 <> 13226,.. what do you think for tp any word any body

Dallas GEP 19:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Order to sell usd/cad @ 1.3260 stop 1.3285 TP @ 1.3210

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 19:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim
$cad shot @ 13226

Dallas GEP 19:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
My Canadian Friend, I have an order to SELL usd/cad @ 1.3260 May not get there. I am glad we didn't get HULL. Great guy but doesn't work well at all in the corners and has marginal puck handling skills.

Dallas GEP 19:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
MHI-I mean today At least in US it has

Goes (NL) B747 19:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 19:05 GMT August 11, 2004

oriented or not, the more than USD 400M per day 'bookies' hold some of the 'objective' FX forum owners with USD 400/- a day barking in their behalf.

gt

Bruxville Jim 19:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
re: 2 pips - greed doesn't pay...

Quebec 19:08 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Anyone short Usd/Cad?

Bruxville Jim 19:05 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
sorry, GEP, can't stay very serious (market-oriented) at the moment, heard and read too many funny news from around the world... e.g. Georgian Coast Guard is to shoot-down Vladimir Zhirinovskiy and his boat's crew at the moment... I guess that relates to markets though (USD/RUR)...:)
Anyway, big thanks for your views.

Brooklyn mhi 19:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:53 GMT August 11, 2004
OK right now it seems USD is a SELL on rallies

Did you mean next hour two or next few days and y?

LAX-LGB SNP 18:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
short on eurgbp and long on gbpchf ... prefer to avoid usd after a couple of missed opps - GL TC everyone :-) have fun

Dallas GEP 18:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
WEll JIm, Jay and John do a great job with this site. HArd to referee with all these trader's egos (not mine of course!!! LOL)

Well I missed that usd/chf long by 2 stinking pips!!!!

Bruxville Jim 18:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP, it probably wasn't 'reasonably' market related =)
sserp eteled !nottub

Dallas GEP 18:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
General SHORT term ranges: USD/CHF 1.2635 - 1.2600 EUR/USD 1.2230-1.2195, USD/CAD 1.3260-1.3210 GBP/USD 1.8320 - 1.8280

Dallas GEP 18:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm..I thought the 1.3280 short usd/cad was market related. I must have missed something. LOL Actually 1.3260 short isn't bad either

Global-View 18:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
We realize it is quiet, especially in summer afternoons but have to ask a favor and would appreciate cooperation. Can we keep the discussion here market oriented as always and if you want to talk about other matters, we have a Help Forum for that purpose. TIA

Global-View 18:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
From GVI (budget deficit)

Spotforex NY 18:20 GMT August 11, 2004
re: US deficit

Fiscal year to date (FYTD) deficit is $395.8 bln vs $324.0 in FYTD'03

Bruxville Jim 18:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
B747 // You mean trade deficit?

Global-View GVI 18:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GVI 18:10 GMT August 11, 2004
July budget deficit was $69.16 bln, above market forecasts but forex market barely noticed it.

Goes (NL) B747 18:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
good evening,

any ideas about the deficit data?
which # take USD up and which # down...

tia & gt

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
MHI....it is possible. Some have diffrent feeds based on the TYPE of account. An Institutuional account (larger in size) generally will have slightly BETTER pricing structure with sometimes smaller spreads. MOST have a limit on how many lots you can have auto-execute vs. being forced to request a quote. Some I know for instance on amounts GREATER than 10 lots you have to request a quote so that of course would be a diffrent orice quote than another account may get.

GER ad 18:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Brooklyn mhi 18:00,
Biger amount may have tighter spread by some broker.

Brooklyn mhi 18:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Is It customary for Retail Brokers to show one price on 1 lot and a different on 10 lots?

Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
SA that question is pretty loaded because a week or so ago it was 133.50-134.50. It then BUSTED out of range LONG (just as I took some shorts!! LOL) NOW I would say 135.80 to 135.00. I belive it topped out around 136.50

Bruxville Jim 17:45 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 17:41 GMT // 89-358. lol:)

nyc sa 17:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
can someone plz give me the overall range for euro/yen ? thnx.

Dallas GEP 17:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
"He shot her lady down, he shot her right down to the ground YES HE DID"

I am going to try a USD/CHF LONG from 1.2600 ASK if seen

Bruxville Jim 17:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 17:23 GMT // No, I'm not. I think really experienced is one that's been trading for at least 5 yrs. take care.

GER ad 17:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY,
out at 135.41

GVI Jay 17:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sw, we sent you an email and you can contact us if you have questions. Otherwise, please leave the forum open for market flow.

phoenix az dave 17:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I see euro going up in short term with a stop of 1.2209.This is a day trade only.

Global-View 17:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Reasonable is a relative word. If you feel qualified that you have enough trading experience to participate, then contact us.

phoenix az dave 17:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Jim what is your side of the euro/us ?

Bruxville Jim 17:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 17:00 GMT // What are your 'reasonable' requirements? Just curious.

Bruxville Jim 17:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
did I write 'right'? meant the other side, forgot the name...:)

saloniko 2004 nk 17:08 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 15:35 GMT August 11, 2004

Yes...But frome Lower ...
Favore area to Buy is 1.1888-1.1940..

nk

wisconsin tim 17:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
is there a quiz =) jk

Global-View 17:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
If you are a reasonably experienced trader and would like to participate in our bi-weekly forex survey, send an email to [email protected] This is not meant to be a slight to our general membership but we are limiting participation as we develop this survey. We will consider a general survey after we build a history in this one.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Gann Used the Radio?...1940? U Kidding
Used his math..
Elliot (accountant)...they have an eye for Details...
He must have spent days looking at charts
He did not hae a radio either..
Lived...in Mexico...1955...Hmm...Spanish..
I don't think so
It's All TA

sw broker 16:55 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville, i mean trading within 10 pips or 15

Bruxville Jim 16:55 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay 16:47 GMT // Nice poetry... Interesting article... Thanks.

Dallas GEP 16:53 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
OK right now it seems USD is a SELL on rallies

Dallas GEP 16:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Jim, no I missed it but I WISH I had it now!!! LOL I also missed my SHORT entry at 203.75 (gbp/jpy)

Bruxville Jim 16:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
sw broker // what do you mean by 'trading over very tight range'? Scalping?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
News...Keeps people lost
for the money to go into "The News Dudes" Accounts...
Almost 80 Perecnt of the profits go to proffessional Inc..
why does "G" provide news...
Confussion keeps going...good families live in the streets...walla...the money keeps going into goldman sachs...
USe something basic such as Bolinger BAnd...
Roughly Estiame the the cycle and use in BB

Dallas GEP 16:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY has changed it's tendancies lately. No longer is it the absolute race horse it has been and it's ranges are narrower. 150-200 pips comapred to 225-275PIPS

sw broker 16:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville, it is all matter of trading over very tight range and they consider it as kickback and then deducted my commision to the account and reduced the comission then
do u suggest a bank is better than firms ?

GVI Jay 16:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Fed Sails Toward September Rate Hike (FXA)

Gee if only oil prices would come down then the economy would be on the Greenspan saddle path to eternal prosperity. While the FOMC statement is not a complete display of intellectual dishonesty, it is pretty darn close. Blaming all the US economic maladies on oil and at the same time maintaining the rise in the price of oil is transitory is incredulous. How many months before oil north of $35 a barrel goes from temporary to minimally quasi-permanent? Moreover, the duration of the rise becomes irrelevant if it is resulting in a significant slowing in growth. For the full update, see our new research section CLICK HERE

Bruxville Jim 16:42 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
sw broker 16:39 GMT // Maybe they have a contract with your client, say a 10% trailing stop (have heard of such clause) - when 10% of depo high are lost, all possies automatically close and trading is blocked. Made some nasty trades recently? They probably have a tangible reason for their action...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
if someone can explain why MKT went up during desert storm...went down at desert shield...
I think the news is only an explaination of what cannot be explained...
the news comes after the MKT...
The reverse is not true
Use VaR to trade rather a measure of risk

Bruxville Jim 16:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP, did you take the one from 202.20?

sw broker 16:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
bruxville, they did not mention any about it , and all they have done is suddenly blocked my account of trading and said this is the benefit of ur client ,whom i am trading for

Bruxville Jim 16:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sw Broker 16:32 GMT // See your contract...

Dallas GEP 16:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good longs: usd/jpy from 110.65 and gbp/jpy from 202.20

Sw Broker 16:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Hi All , I have a question if any 1 can tell me is it the right of any brokerage firm to block any account trading with it anytime the firm like?

cairo amgad 16:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil above 44$ again, I closed my USD/JPY at 110.80 from 111.17 as it suffies my target.

Saudia can not give instant supply of oil:
(1) Oil companies there reduced their employee because of terror attacks
(2) It already delivers 85% of its maximum production.

GL,GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
did not mean that.. :)
"Elliot"
I just think this is good work
Almost every trader I meet thinks that I am a fool to try to get a contious Range...many days ahead of time...
I think its possible

GER ad 16:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY,
a test of 135.80 is still possible today IMHO.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:26 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT August 11, 2004
BAHRAIN, I agree as 135.62 is pretty striong resistance//
Thanks...I would leave it till friday
Euro might tough 1.2245 then down again

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:25 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 16:21 GMT August 11, 2004 //
Thanks for agreeing with me.. :)
Good Man!!
No one thinks this is possible...even my Math idols
I Think if Elliot saw this...might have had some doubt publishing the wave
:)

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN, I agree as 135.62 is pretty striong resistance

Bruxville Jim 16:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Coventry Ledge 15:59 GMT // Don't get TOO excited on your E/J purchase, there are still longs out there that need to be loaded off (so rallies will be for sale). 136 won't be seen any more today. imho.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Wed-Aug-11 12:00 PM 135.5894 131.9292 134.6171 132.9016
Wed-Aug-11 12:00 PM 135.59 131.93 134.62 132.90
Wed-Aug-11 01:00 PM 135.56 131.92 134.60 132.89
Wed-Aug-11 02:00 PM 135.54 131.92 134.58 132.88
Wed-Aug-11 03:00 PM 135.52 131.91 134.56 132.87
Wed-Aug-11 04:00 PM 135.50 131.91 134.55 132.86
Wed-Aug-11 05:00 PM 135.48 131.90 134.53 132.85


EurJpy 135.60 should be OK to short

GER ad 16:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Coventry Ledge 15:59,
Thanks, I closed 1/2 at 135.49 and moved S/L for the rest at cost. GT & GL.

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/chf SHORTS at 1.2600. probably has MORE left 1.2580 area AMYBE at thuis time

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
London e 15:57 GMT August 11, 2004
//
Eur

Coventry Ledge 15:59 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GER ad Nice call buddy

melb 15:58 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Swissy mate !!

London e 15:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:52 GMT August 11, 2004
I think it will have to do 1.178 first or at least 1.2080
Sorry, what will? Thanks a lot.

hk ab lazy 15:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg reported higher gold purposely again.

wisconsin tim 15:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
closed eur/yen shorts 135.21
not gonna risk the long side of EUR/USD closing those as well

gt's all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:47 GMT August 11, 2004
E....It could go to 1.2550 I have a tendancy to close early and BAnk pips, 1.2610 area would be first bounce area up

//
It might Dallas...not from this price at least for this week
I think it will have to do 1.178 first or at least 1.2080

eur lg 15:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
While Saudis say they could boost production, EIA reports an unexpected drop in crude and gas stocks this past week. This could explain the bounce in crude the past few mins.

Los Angeles ss 15:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Solo, are you there??

TelAviv DOR 15:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
what you hear from the Saudies ?

Dallas GEP 15:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
E....It could go to 1.2550 I have a tendancy to close early and BAnk pips, 1.2610 area would be first bounce area up

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
1.2224...some more short there...

vancouver PB 15:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Got love those NYMEX boys,

Saudi boosts production, and were headed right back to 44.50.

I can't believe I'm going long again.

London e 15:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas let me know if you change your USD/CHF target. Thanks.

hk ab lazy 15:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
next drag will be on eur, watch out.

London e 15:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY is really dropping. Ive taken profit from 111.15.

hk ab lazy 15:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
put a long dlr/jpy limit 110.40.

Bruxville Jim 15:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 15:31 GMT // That seems like jumping on a passing train... maybe better wait next one... lol

Sydney Alimin 15:35 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
saloniko nk: where do you see euro goes? still up?

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED rest of EUR/JPY shorts at 135.30. I know that really pisses some people off/ LOL (inside joke)

saloniko 2004 nk 15:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GBP/J..

same quiet short...shshsh..

imo
nk

GER ad 15:29 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY at 135.17

Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
OK got out at BE on euro longs Not going anywhere right now. LIKE chf shorts BETTER

Hong Kong Ahe 15:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Flip 15:19 - Agreed. It makes sense. ;O)

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
E.....1.2600 would please me

UAE Oil man 15:20 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
1.2550-1.2696 $CHF range today.

Dublin Flip 15:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
US competitiveness- a polite way of saying lower dollar.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Supply is not the only thing that governs....Saving is forgotten...
The Japs did that not of a strategy...sheer concidence

London e 15:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas what is you target for USD/CHF. I re-shorted from 1.2640, but I already lost 2 trades on it today.

wisconsin tim 15:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
well I am just peeved ... had my weekly analysis on EUR/JPY charts I posted earlier and didn't follow the plan.

anyhow re-entered short EUR/YEN 135.60 same stops as original post smaller possie size. Still long EUR/USD

saloniko 2004 nk 15:17 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ab..

E/J..short it quiet..shshshshs..

nk


Dallas GEP 15:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Yeah AB, I wonder where all those guys are now that were telling me I was NUTS to short Eur/jpy??? Although I readily admit I shorted it way too early!!! LOL

Eilat Dolphin 15:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Flip/ ""etitiveness""???, you even had me looking in my best tionary!

Dallas GEP 15:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Got some more usd/chf short on another account at 1.2634

London e 15:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
What do you think of USD/JPY?

hk ab lazy 15:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
more than 100 pips now on eur/jpy short.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Oil Prices are going down...never hit 50...not because saudi Making some sort of Mambo Statment...
the price is too High That's all...

Hong Kong Ahe 15:13 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 15:01 - The daily chart of EURYEN is synchronized with the chart of light crude oil in pace of up and down, but not that with USDYEN nor EURUSD. It may give some hints to Traders in interest of oil price factor. My 2 cents.

Bruxville Jim 15:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 15:07 GMT // I thought Saudis are the only ones that do have some spare capacity actually...

Goes (NL) B747 15:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 15:09 GMT August 11, 2004

YES !!!

gt

CA Clouy 15:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
FYI:
A US investment houses was a seller of [EUR/USD] around the 1.2235/40 levels. Since, multi-account bids have emerged ahead of the figure. Stops are mainly tipped on the downside, below the purported Asian bids at 1.2200 and 1.2180,

B747&GEP, still holding eur/usd long possie?

Sydney Alimin 15:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
if this time we have oil crisis, it is gonna be a huge one since saudi arabia's output is max already

Goes (NL) B747 15:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
what a timing...deficit data will lose attention

gt

hk ab lazy 15:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
QDN.....
too high to short chf?
do it quietly....

Goes (NL) B747 15:05 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
the Saudi royals owe GWB (father and son) their lives and poswer position, the main dishes will follow as soon D-Day gets closer.

gt

Los Angeles ss 15:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for replies, appreciate them.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Everything is a sell...Saudies as included

Dublin Flip 15:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I personally belive the higher oil which has been underpining $jpy for so long is the main stumbling block to more USD etitiveness (i.e. weaker). For all the reasons of late for dollar to come lower the trump card has been $jpy and that's been largely driven by oil in the other direction.

Goes (NL) B747 15:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
*** correction ***

Los Angeles ss 15:02 GMT August 11, 2004

more output means much stronger JPY and higher production of Japan oriented goods.

gt

PAR 15:03 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Saudi starting Bush reelection campaign by boosting output .

GENEVA FHR 15:03 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
YES at 16.53

Goes (NL) B747 15:03 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 15:02 GMT August 11, 2004

more output means much stronger USD and higher production of Japan oriented goods.

gt

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 15:03 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel:

been hiding trying to learn all there is about fx.
how u been doing..long time no talk

Los Angeles ss 15:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Anyone, more output by the Saudis means stronger USD?

Dublin Flip 15:01 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ss it kind of depends.
Market has been selling yen on higher oil and that has been inspiring a but of USD strength in that direction which has spilled over at times. Oil lower should mean Yen stronger so $jpy lower but it's debatable if that means dollar weaker overall or wheter eur/jpy -ve

hk ab lazy 15:01 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
FHR// announced?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:59 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Eur
Next Buy Level might be 1.1780

GENEVA FHR 14:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia ready to boost output by 1.3 mio barrils immediately

Los Angeles ss 14:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
If the Saudis increase oil output to ease prices, that is a USD positive, right?

PAR 14:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
German banks selling EURGBP. Maybe merger related. German bank buys UK bank like they did with UK car manufacturers ?

hk ab lazy 14:55 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jf// it's v. kind of you. GT.

sarasota jf 14:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ab swiss are stubborn they cud buy for weeks- i personally do not play eurchf it does not fit with my timeframe

Eilat Dolphin 14:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Amgad/ Thanks! Should be Yen positive, then $ then E against those that have oil.

hk ab lazy 14:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jf//do you think that big eur/chf order has finished? LOL.

hk ab lazy 14:49 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jf//do you think that big eur/chf order has finished? LOL.

Dallas GEP 14:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/chf 1.2626

hk ab lazy 14:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
last push before 15:30?

eur lg 14:45 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
fwiw i re-entered long eur jpy 135.70 and trying to go long eur usd 1.2195. Both trades based on 4 hour charts coming into support zones and stochastics looking bottomish for bullish crossover.

cairo amgad 14:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Saudi To Make Major Announcement On Oil 15:30 GMT-Reuters

hk ab lazy 14:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
was it out? I don't think so.
IT should be out on Fri. Isn't it?

Goes (NL) B747 14:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 14:35 GMT August 11, 2004

why US deficit data makes JPY to fly for 48HRS after it comes out ???

gt

hk ab lazy 14:35 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
close the eur/jpy short from 136.15 at 135.70.
Now, only holding the one from Dr. Q's suggestion at 136.50.

Goes (NL) B747 14:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 14:10 GMT August 11, 2004

am no expert !!!

just make sure you never go into live account, and try to stay away from FX trading - leverage of 1:10 or less is the key to make money, but how many people will start live account with 10K initial deposit for position of 100K.


gt

CA Clouy 14:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT August 11, 2004
GEP, it's very nice of you to share your settings, probably methods later. that counts, imvho.

Calabash TarHeel 14:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Charlotte, North Carolina svi 14:20 GMT August 11, 2004

Hello Char. How have you been?

CA Clouy 14:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
From Dr. Q. :
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2182 - 1.2244. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.2236 - 1.2265 (1.2236 - 1.2245 - 1.2249 - 1.2259 - 1.2265). The odds are in favour of taking short position.

You guys ever considered this before setting the eur/usd order? Also seemed .2210 is a little hard to breach for up flow right now. TIA.
GL & GT

Charlotte, North Carolina svi 14:20 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP:
The difference is your wilingness to share...........that alone is bi.................g

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Euro,Cable then Aussie...(5:3:1)

Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Clouy, I am certainly no expert!!! From a technical standpoint there are quite a few here that are better than I.

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Thx GH, there are a few tho that don't care for my trading methods at all!!! LOL To each his own. Do whatever works for you!!

Bruxville Jim 14:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Plummeting stock markets should help usd/jpy stay bid... imho.

lnd 14:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
just on the chf someone was talking about fib levels for taking poss well at 1.2630 we are 50% of the move down on friday.

CA Clouy 14:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 14:02 GMT August 11, 2004
Dallas GEP 13:58 GMT August 11, 2004

Thx again, friends. I am just trying to learn how experts trade. I've put the call into my demo account. :-)

also closed eur/jpy long with +14 pips. was scared by bearish views.

Bruxville Jim 14:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
NASDAQ Composite down 2.63% currently...

Newcastle GH 14:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP, Ever thought of putting yours trading methods and settings as part of your ID!

Just for those who don't know Gep here is very willing in helping people right down to the settings on a stochastic etc. Very well done too!

Dallas GEP 14:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I like usd/chf short from that 1.2625-30 area

Goes (NL) B747 14:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 13:56 GMT August 11, 2004

I think that 10mins are right for the rest of the week due to the kind of data coming out and trading volumes.

anyway, my USD/JPY & EUR/USD calls are around - you can always tell me that I was wrong (or not) and remind me that I lost money if market goes against my position :-)

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:01 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani
Take a look before entering...these days is not Your normal days

Dallas GEP 13:58 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
5,3,3

Coventry Ledge 13:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I'm short the Swissie (USD/CHF) from 1.2630, failed to break 1.2635, I have a tight stop @1.2655

CA Clouy 13:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Thx u GEP & B747.

B747//may i know, why changes the chart to 10min?
GEP//what is the setting of ur stochastic?
GL & GT

wisconsin tim 13:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
tp on EUR/YEN shorts +18 will reenter later


should of taken 1/2 @ +35 then could of kept my stop on remaining above 136

wisconsin tim 13:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
bought eur/usd 2208 stops below 2180 tp above 2300

Goes (NL) B747 13:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
here ir comes...USD free fall


gt

Dallas GEP 13:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
MACD is more important and it is oversold

Goes (NL) B747 13:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 13:48 GMT August 11, 2004

move to 10min. charts until this week's close.


gt

CA Clouy 13:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GEP&NL, can I plz know why u long eur/usd at this stage? the hourly stochastic is still going south and not at o/s area either. I'm using 8/3/3. TIA.

Goes (NL) B747 13:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
long EUR/USD @ 1.2202
s/l @ 1.2180
t/p @ 1.2234

gt

Dallas GEP 13:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Longed euro @ 1.2205. Eur/gbp shorts stopped out from the other day. Eur/jpy shorts still working. Aussie from .7140 still working

hk ab lazy 13:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
will the stale longs of eur above 1.2250 cleaned tonight? if so, don't mind to get on some at 1.2175.

Goes (NL) B747 13:29 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:25 GMT August 11, 2004

current spot for USD/JPY is 111.20...looks for me like 111.35 will not print and below 109.50 will print before weekend starts.

look at dates when deficit data came out and how JPY reacted.

gt

hk ab lazy 13:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hope the chf train can stop at my 1.2670 oda( moved up by 4 pips).

slv sam 13:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
sorry target 110.46!

hk ab lazy 13:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
we are still within this big range.... big big range...

wisconsin tim 13:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 04:14 GMT August 11, 2004
selling EUR/YEN 136.18 stops above 136.70 tp 135 will sell more at 135.75


moving stops a little below BE lowering TP as well

slv sam 13:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:18 GMT /
at 111.06 s/l 111.36 target 111.46.GT

Bruxville Jim 13:25 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
B747// What do you mean by 'everything but sell'?

Spr Noods 13:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
we got a lot to learn from HK folks down here...

Hong Kong Ahe 11:40 GMT August 11, 2004
Today's the statistic of unemployment may not be a factor to determine a society's economy. Unemployment in China is 20%. According to the structure of PR China, it may contain a large percentage amongst people being self-employed. They are running their own business as a small business or as an individual proprietors. In mid 80s of HK, a lot of middle class people dropped out from large corporations and ran their own business as proprietors. The unemployment once rose to around 7-8% from 3-4% in 70's. But the society was in prosperity.

Goes (NL) B747 13:20 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 13:18 GMT August 11, 2004

take a look on JPY when deficit data comes out and what happens 24-48 HRS later.

JPY is everything but sell for now

gt

Dublin Flip 13:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Aplogies Jay but after fifteen hours of 1.2215/40 it's pretty dull.

Bruxville Jim 13:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:12 GMT // It doesn't pay to be greedy...
BTW, at what price did you stop+reverse? Hope you'll make your pips back soon...

Dublin Flip 13:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
oops sorry Jay.

CA Clouy 13:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Long eur/jpy @135.64, s/l @135.30. hourly stochastic showed o/s. Any view on this pair is appreciated.

Goes (NL) B747 13:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 13:12 GMT August 11, 2004

it looks like 'bottow of the day' is calling you to take position :-)


gt

slv sam 13:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:08 GMT August 10, 2004
bought $/y 110.83 target 111.50 stop 110.40.GT

closed and reversed!
missed target by 2pips :(

hk ab lazy 13:11 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hm... eur, chf, dlr/jpy have been in v. tight range for many hrs...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
NZ is almost ready to be served...
Couple of hours..
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/NZDUSD.htm

hk ab lazy 13:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy betrayed eur....

now next to see if aud/jpy can guard 79 or not...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:53 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
lnd 12:43 GMT August 11, 2004
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:32 GMT. for the aud what would i do. i am currently long but suppose i have no poss then does your data suggest i do nothing until the level is reached?

//
The data / Forecasts is start a Poss then end it...the other way..is not what I do.
Sorry Man...But looking at the chart...if aussie goes today...might do about 30 to 60 pips...
seems more south to me...so
I am sorry

Global-View 12:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
If you are an experienced trader and would like to participate in our bi-weekly forex survey, send an email to [email protected] This is not meant to be a slight to our general membership but we are limiting participation as we develop this survey. We will cosnider a general survey after we build a hhistory in this one.

lnd 12:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:32 GMT. for the aud what would i do. i am currently long but suppose i have no poss then does your data suggest i do nothing until the level is reached?

Global-View 12:42 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
This is not a forum to crtitique TV commentators.

SanFrancisco tg 12:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Flip in case you didn't notice the US economy was setting a series of 40 year records on the back of the tax cuts, rebalancing of the USD, taking the offensive to the middle east, and reduced rates. Its just like a faucet, it can all be calmly managed. That wasn't done before recent years.

Dublin Flip 12:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I must I was agreeing with Kudlow in late last year/ ealry this year when he called for the fed to "bring it on and raise rates" even calling for 50BPs. Unfortunately the delaying tactics of AG have meant that now they are raising when the stock market is vulnerable instead of when it was rallying. Not surprisingly Kudlow has currently back peddled from the aggresive rate hike talk because the stock market is more vulnerable.
Anyway lunch beckons...

SanFrancisco tg 12:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The stock market run peacked in line with geo-international conditions reaching a point where no more progress was possible for a while. The run was a direct result of stability measures by the Fed and the rest, including the tax cuts. It enabled rebalancing of competativeness for the US without the poison of an overheated currency as seen in past years, against a basket of floundering international economies.

The US taking the fight to the terrorists so to speak aided. But now we are in another stage where another set of conditions must develop for more upside, or which would cause further retracement and possible decline.

The longer the USD stays weak, the longer the damage to competing economies, namely Germany and France, as the economic effect of the overheated USD of the late 90's is re-balanced. However, as the rate differential begins to sway toward USD with rate increases that coincide with peaking oil, reduced productivity and ensuing hiring, the USD will begin to gain and so will the US economy again. But in a more balanced measure than prior years.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dudes
I think Just about all will go down
for the rest of the week...
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani

Dublin Flip 12:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jk you reckon he and Junior's relationship goes back to the old bolovian marching days-LOL
I'm sure they are both clean and sober these days and that was just a chapter of youthful excuberance-LOL

Dublin Flip 12:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I don't know how you figure that.
Kudlow and his followers are long Nasdaq and it's down 70% I'd say he's the simplistic one. Don't you think a massive Tax cut , negative real intrest rates and (accepted at the time) resolution of a War were pretty good reasons to buy the stock market?? Maybe I'm just old fashioned and orthodox-LOL
catch you later.

Roumeli anka 12:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ok now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:26 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 12:22 GMT August 11, 2004
Bahrain... no///
Thanks...could U try now again Please?

Roumeli anka 12:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain... no

SanFrancisco tg 12:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Flip - such a simplistic way of categorizing things will get you in trouble.

saloniko 2004 nk 12:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

Think E/J is close to a Good Bye not Good Buy area..


nk

Calabash TarHeel 12:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 11:34 GMT August 11, 2004
eur/jpy smells bad?

How bad? I'm short from near yesterday's high.

Thanks

Dublin Flip 12:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
tg Kudlow said the stock market was in retracement from mid 2000 till March 2003. He used the NFP figures in mid 2000 as reasons the new economy was real and that the stock market was only having a healthy pullback. The guy is a saleman.
As you may remember even an uber-bear like myself got bullish equities with Greenspan boxing the deflation shadows, Junior throwing a Trillion dollar tax cut party and Iraq's liberation ensuring uninterupted oil flows for generations to come. I thought March2003 was a massive perfect investment storm. I'm just worried where the encore is coming from.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani
Does the links in that page work? Please?

SanFrancisco tg 12:10 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good show of flexibility on Gspans part. He must react to changing conditions no matter the time span.

Roumeli anka 12:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
thanks mate

Dublin Flip 12:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
While on NFP and how good a baromter for the economy and (therefore stock market one presumes) I'm noting here that virtually the highest NFP of the past ten years occured in March 2000 @ 493k - yep the month the stock markets topped. It arguably inspired greenspan to raise 50bps in May (by 50BPs) which he reversed only 7mths later. And people why I call him affectionately Mr Magoo

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I recommend U short Euro at this level
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EURUSD.htm

GA TJ 12:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
US Presidents are undeserving of the credit or blame for the economy. Even the Fed Res has limited power and effect on the economy. There exists a little thing called economic cycles. Thats what rules. At best only the peaks and valleys can be smoothed. As for jobs, they have been created. Problem for US Economy is that they have been created in other countries via outsourcing. This is caused by nothing more than disparities in wages and Execs never ending goal of making the bottom line look better. After all, their personal income depends on it. We can all sit here and bad mouth the Pres and Fed Res Chair but that is not going to alter the cycles.

SanFrancisco tg 12:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Well he was right the last time people were jumping on the "crash" bandwagon when he said it would only be a retracement. Now we are in a predictable sideways/retracement again but larger picture is unscathed, and not breaching/holding alarm bells like 8% retracement. As soon as people are satisfied the oil pricing is stabilizing the retracement prospects dim.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EURUSD.htm

Dublin Flip 11:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
tg you know me well enough to know I'm only having a bit of fun. Interesting no one on bubblevision is using "the Stock market is a leading indicator of the economy" axiom this year. I guess for that clown Kudlow it's only a leading indicator when it goes up-LOL

SanFrancisco tg 11:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Flip - the 18 year high for small business disagrees with your "negative" economic assessment. The US employment rate is where it was in the late 1990's when you prefer to say we had an economic "boom" that ended in recession from the overheated dollar among other things.

Roumeli anka 11:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain... do you have an EURUSD graph for this week ?

SanFrancisco tg 11:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Ahe - Agree, hence the 18 year high in US small business also a show of strength for this country. Hong Kong has been very productive despite the 20%.

There should be no carry over to Walmart pricing (deflation) because of the 20%.

Oil inflation has put many a business out of business, so I'm having trouble with the sentiment that it has no tangible effect. There is carry over all the way to the consumer, and business respond by degree of dependancy, especially manufacturing or freight/airlines.

Dublin Flip 11:45 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Oops
that's 9.6 mio jobs behind budget (8.5 needed and 1.1 less actual)

Dublin Flip 11:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Tg According to the US department of Labor when Junior took over 132,388K American were working (NFP). Last month it's estimated 131,272k Americans are working. A deficit of 1,116k Jobs. In the 43 months Junior has been "doing some good" from the oval office the US population has grown by further 8.5 million. So the therefore the economy needs to grow 8.5million jobs just to be flat. Now as I’ve said many times before I blame Junior for a lot of things but globalization and being on the wrong end of the economic cycle is not one of them. Saying that for whatever reasons, George W Bush’s is 9.1 mio jobs behind budget.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/AUDJPY.htm
it should be a short cross here..or soon

Livingston nh 11:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
In the US energy price hikes do not curtail spending - total spending is merely redirected - credit growth determines spending // wouldn't take any economic forecasting from the Fed too seriously

Hong Kong Ahe 11:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Today's the statistic of unemployment may not be a factor to determine a society's economy. Unemployment in China is 20%. According to the structure of PR China, it may contain a large percentage amongst people being self-employed. They are running their own business as a small business or as an individual proprietors. In mid 80s of HK, a lot of middle class people dropped out from large corporations and ran their own business as proprietors. The unemployment once rose to around 7-8% from 3-4% in 70's. But the society was in prosperity.

Livingston nh 11:38 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
G'span changes indicators the way most people change socks

SanFrancisco tg 11:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bottom line for the 32k NFP figure was weaker than expected growth, it was not a negative number. Economists set their expectations too high and did not account for the effect of high oil prices curtailing business spending and hiring in what is a seasonally slow month in addition.

Dublin Flip 11:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Because it currently looks better -LOL
If the NFP was more flattering it would then be preferred by the governement. AG has always said the NFP is what he uses. Maybe he's changed his preferences

hk ab 11:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy smells bad?

hk ab 11:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
will add long cad 1.3205.

eur lg 11:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Which gives more credibility to the household survey numbers ??????

SanFrancisco tg 11:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The overall unemployment rate has dropped from 5.6% to 5.5%. Many large job placement firms such as monster and manpower say orders and placements are strong. Also there were about 25k lost in finance, many in the mortgage area. This is also a seasonally low month. Its quite likely we are seeing a declining labor market, seasonal effect, and with business orders going fine, a temporary effect.

Unemployment in Germany is 10.6%. Unemployment in France is 9.9%. Unemployment in China is 20%.

SanFrancisco tg 11:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The US Small Business Index is at an 18 year high.

Dublin Flip 11:17 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
No worries martin. I'm not disagreeing that the market will probably be all set up for an upside surprise, after four lower NFP it's more likley than not with something that has such a huge margin for error (+/-150k) i.e. like the enormous guesstimation for self-employed they had to presume was what prevented the occaisional negative result.
I thought what was more salient last friday was that the market estimates were actually lowered and still came in lower. I thought that displayed dealing intentions and positon fears and the NFP only confirmed them.
anyway all this is sounding like navel-gazing-LOL
be lucky

hk ab 11:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
1.266666666666

SanFrancisco tg 11:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
In 2003 there was a net loss of jobs in the US, by this time 2004 there is a net gain of 1.2 million.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 11:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 11:04 GMT August 11, 2004

yes AB..time is our greatest friend ..and enemy...g/t

GOLD COAST MARTIN 11:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   



Dublin Flip 09:35 GMT August 11, 2004
FLIP....Your view are always appreciated and respected....g.t

hk ab 11:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Martin, there're about 3 weeks to verify the move you mention.. GT.

PAR 10:59 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
BOE inflation report reads more like a fairy tale than an economic report.

Far Side Norton Anti Minus 10:45 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
test....

hk ab 10:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
a sustained stay above 79 aud/jpy will be even more supportive, at the moment, there're some doubts.

hk ab 10:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
together to close the shorts.

hk ab 10:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
nt// now, I am looking at levels to buy some aud on DIPS.

hk ab 10:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
.382 fib of that crazy Fri. move.

hk ab 10:21 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
nt// first limit sell chf 1.2666666666

London e 10:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
If/when USD breaks higher. Will resell USD/CHF at 1.2685 stop 1.27.

Gen dk 09:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 09:53 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The "German investors" bought gold and they made money in the last New York session. Now it is the turn of the "Japanese Investors" who sold gold in last few days.

Melbourne Qindex 09:49 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 09:43 GMT - Do me a favour and send an e-mail to Jay, otherwise I can't justify myself. It is a FREE trial!

LA fxnew 09:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Mr Qindex:

I am still waiting for your gbp/usdd :)
Thank u

Oakland daimyo 09:42 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Coventry Ledge 09:15 GMT August 11, 2004
I'm on the other side of you, take care. Time will tell. Selling upticks Today. GT

melbourne farmacia 09:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm - yeah that's the one.
I run a similar Dollar model as my DJIA index... next turning period not for months yet. GT

hong kong nt 09:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 09:15 -- dangerous to think US econ is infallible, US is not invincible which is well demostrated by the happening of 911..

Melbourne Qindex 09:35 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:50 GMT August 11, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2182 - 1.2244. A projected resistant level has been established at 1.2236 - 1.2265 (1.2236 - 1.2245 - 1.2249 - 1.2259 - 1.2265). The odds are in favour of taking short position.

Dublin Flip 09:35 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Martin it's ironic that you have mentioned pavlov's dog again. The human variation is that people always back against a trend of data because they expect some give-back instead of accepting the future direction is more likely to be continued in sympathy with the current. A bit like always backing against the favorite in two horse race.
Given NFP of.....
March +353
April +324
May +208
June + 78
July + 32
I understand (like a 3% GDP 2nd Quarter ) 32k is now a fairly low bar for employment to jump at the next test and therefore should improve but having only breached the monthly >200k employment growth hurdle three times in this 32 month expansion the jobs picture can't be described as anything but abysmal. You can only lower the bar so low. Eventually you have to look at it in its totality. 3% GDP Last month, CPI @ 3.3 % and anemic jobs whilst being Fed a constant diet of negative real intrest rates is hardly the stuff that breeds investor confidence.

London e 09:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
"London e 08:47 GMT August 11, 2004
Bought small GBP/USD @ 1.8255 stop at 1.8240. Trailing stop."
Out at 1.8278

Spr Noods 09:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim...no Jim I just make the coffee around here

Sydney gvm 09:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia I think I saw the same chart - was it a Kagi 4% reversal 1985 - 2004 ? Quite a compelling case I thought. As is often the case I am locked between the absolute and relative scenarios but I think Yen strength might be the longer term play against the US$ longer term

GER ad 09:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Closed short EUR/JPY from 136.40 (yesterday post) at 135.77

KL KL 09:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ok out eur jpy short, +39 pips ....from 136.18..still hit and run

melbourne farmacia 09:20 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 07:53 GMT August 11, 2004
Well.. based on long term Dollar Index chart I received few days back.... some expecting the low 60's before any respectable dollar recovery.. fwiw

hk ab 09:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jf// do you think the upside test on eur/jpy is enough?

Coventry Ledge 09:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I've been long EUR/USD from 1.2225 since early asia, Daily's remain bullish although a bearish cross on the stoch's forming, but an intra rally to 1.2260+ should prevent that from forming, intra-day a little bearish, I still hold for my initial target of 1.2359

hk ab 09:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
nt// There're times when dlr/jpy 1 and 600....

London e 09:13 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 09:08 GMT August 11, 2004
I have 4 pips spread (included in 15 pip stop). Agree with what you say about 15+15, am working on this, but the first USD/CHF trade was too early - I should have sold @ 1.2616 with my analysis, but I feared it wouldn't reach. Need to learn a lot still.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:13 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
christchurch CA 09:02 - Hi CA, are you from NZ christchurch? Good Trades.

hong kong nt 09:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Where're you when usd/jpy and usd/chf trading at 80 and 1.11?

hk ab 18:23 GMT August 10, 2004
tg//agree that we need more document to support the view.

BUT, weak USD--> more out flows + bigger imports burden--> eventually, US econ. collapse.

In Chinese, we have, there's a turn for everything.
It's now their turn to hike.

hk ab 09:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
a close of aud/jpy under 79 tonight will be a curse.

FloridA vv 09:11 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
slv sam I bougt your Usd/Chf here thanx.

Bruxville Jim 09:08 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
London e 09:04 GMT // May I ask what spread do you have on USD/CHF? And 15+15 adds up to 30 already...

slv sam 09:07 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
short it of course!

slv sam 09:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
yen is the weakest ccy these days...safe to hort it everywhere!GT

London e 09:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Ive resold the USD/CHF @ 1.262 stop at 1.2635. If it doesn't break higher soon it may see lower. If not I lose 15 pips.

christchurch CA 09:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The NZD/USD will be 0.663 then go down
down till Nov./2004
or just rec

slv sam 09:01 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
1.2180 is good area to long euro 4 only day trade imho.GT

London e 09:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 08:52 GMT August 11, 2004
My counter strategy using 10-15 pip stops aiming for upto 150 pips is proving profitable even though I have about 4 times as many losses as profits.

London e 08:58 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 08:52 GMT August 11, 2004
Im trading short term. The USD/CHF was a bad trade though, I will resell if it fails to break higher soon.

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 08:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
11.08.2004 (3:26am US Time)

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111.26) – AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY USD TESTED 111.30/40 REGION. BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TO 111.70 AND EVEN 112.45 REGION. NOW WE HAVE SUPPORT AT 110.70.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2235) – BEFORE FED DECISON EUR TESTED 1.2315 REGION. BUY AFTER THIS COMMUNICATE ABOUT RATE ( RISE BY 25PB) EUR FALL BY 100 PIPS. BUT SUPPORT AT 1.2200/15 HOLD (WE MENTIONED ABOUT THIS SUPPORT YESTERDAY). TODAY RANGE 1.2200 – 1.2300.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2596) – AFTER FED DECISION USD FORTIFY BY 100 PIPS AND TESTED 1.2630 REGION. RESISTANCE 1.2630/50, SUPPORT 1.2530/50.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8275) – SUPPORT 1.8245 AND 1.8200,RESISTANCE 1.8350/80.

houston ken 08:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
london e why are trading against trends?

GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
HAIFA..since yourbrought the rampant bulishness up here is a a further observation..'' Expect the rate of accelation of the euro and aud that i posted on the 31st of july, to commence tonite and the first port of call is for the euro and aud to give back the pips that it gained last friday....g.t

London e 08:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bought small GBP/USD @ 1.8255 stop at 1.8240. Trailing stop.

FloridA vv 08:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Yeh. Finally London traders finished their morning tea and came back to work :)

Gen dk 08:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa ac 08:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EURO// What happened to the RAMPANT BULLISHNESS of 2 days ago?

hk ab 08:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I would wait for the .618 fib to short.

sar jf 08:39 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ab yes u are lucky i was ok in eur but cad view was dead wrong its been good lately but last 24 hours a struggle but thats mkt for you- really slow trading tho

London e 08:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sold USD/CHF @ 1.2610 stop @ 1.2625. Targeting 1.2575

hk ab 08:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
jf// I got a lucky hand yesterday to long dlr/cad 1.3140....

FloridA vv 08:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:16 GMT
Wow, nice to see that poor Pavlov's animals have something to be inherited by currency brokers. ;))

I do agree with you Martin, actually I started shorting Euros from January this year and wil continue until it hits the bottom @ .88 in a couple of years.
My point is, that US $ is still supported by the global devotion, that means if it is weak the reason - somebody needs to take profit, unload and clear up old debts and reload longs later.
From the other side yong Euro stil has a long way to go to prove its value and is very valnurable to internal events like skandals and disobidiens between its members, wich we will sertainy see in the future.
Sorry for taking too mach space
Good trades to everybody.

Dublin Flip 08:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
As a yardstick the US needs to create 200k jobs every month just to keep pace with population growth. So one shouldn't get excited if NFP come in 200/250 either as it means the employment sector is just treading water. Last months meagre +32k result and June's +78k actually mean -168k and -122k growth adjusted jobs made.

slv sam 08:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
us$/cad price tells again us$ is heading for another strong day today. I am keeping my long $/yen.GT

PAR 08:18 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Expect UK unemployment to drop to a new all time low due to government hiring. Whether somebody gets unemployment benefits or works for the government makes budgetwise no difference since they are both paid with taxpayers money.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 08:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY..GVM...U.S employment figures like 342,000 cannot be sustained month in month out..the market has unfortunately been conditioned to expect such figures every month and reacts adversely if it doesnt..While the last 2 employment figures have not been good and i am certain the the next set will be an improvement on the last ones,the market will be conditioned the opposite way which is, not to react adversely when figures that are not as high as 3-4 months back are published..it is simply before a matter of time before the ''conditioning"process starts to sink in and at the end combine this with interest hikes,general good growth and you have the inevitable:a strong USD...That is why i keep saying that the Euro in order to enhance its value has to start creating its own positive spin in the eurozone instead of trying to walk in the USDs shadow..This though seems to be light years away judging by the attitude of the ECB and the structural and fundamental problems of euroland...now you know why i am A MEDIUM and LONG TERM supporter of the usd...
The market is a bit like PAVLOVS DOG...In the past it has been barking loudly when it got a scotch fillet...unfortunately it has got to learn to bark less when it gets only a bone...Like Pavlovs dog that learned to do that so will the market....

Bruxville Jim 08:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 08:09 GMT // Huge amounts of capital are flowing into oil market - and they might use any excuse to push its price higher...

FloridA vv 08:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Dont warry Singapore, Putin just wants Ukos in his backyard, they've got scared of the power which privet sector of the economy gained recently. They just not used to see new capitalists having more money and power than the government.
More to say Russia alone has never been the major supplier of oil. So, those events wil not push the market significantly

Singapore Sfx 08:06 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
nice thots lg .. thanks.

Sydney Alimin 08:05 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hi everybody, is greenspan gonna speak tonight?

Plovdiv Gotin 08:05 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Hi mates. Some ideas about $/SF?TIA.

eur lg 08:04 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts:
1- Greenspan has made it clear that oil is everything right now. View on anything has to start with whats your view on oil prices.
2- Greenspan comments imply high oil prices are the cause of the recent "soft patch". Thus in taking positions look at the calendar for data releases. Data such as consumer confidence, which would be negatively impacted by high oil, one should position accordingly for (short usd). On the other hand high oil which should hurt other countries exports, and slow US imports should result in a lesser US trade deficit, and likewise be positioned for accordingly (long usd). Conclusion is its a traders market. Don't get married to any views for the time being.
3- Technically for me its not clear. We have a gap in prices from yesterdays FOMC within a gap from fridays payroll. Momentum signs are mixed. Waves counts errrrrr subject to interpretation.
4- I like simple, long eur/jpy is the only thing that still makes sense.

Singapore Sfx 07:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
russain govt energy agency to ask bailiffs to unfreeze yukos accounts. - says yukos oil exports will be hit of accounts stay frozen ..

reuters

Sydney gvm 07:53 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN your rampant bullishness regarding US economy is intriguing. From a relative point of view it's fair enough to say the US economy is outperforming the Euro economy but from an absolute point of view I find it difficult to hold your level (& Greenspans) of confidence that this soft patch is temporary and we are off to the races sooner rather than later or at at all. It is not only oil prices that impact on consumers,producers & consequent GDP & debt paydown ability - job creation is an integral part of economic recovery both in a direct sense - money in consumer pockets and indirectly - in terms of confidence. Combined with the current debt level in America and the consequent housing (& Equity?) bubble - I would suggest there is some room for hesitation in calling the recovery on track and consequently the dollar continuing it's bull run.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 07:48 GMT August 11, 2004
Thanks JIM,got to keep those stops pretty tight!!!!...g/t

Bruxville Jim 07:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Martin, for EUR/USD, I guess it's
Sell @1.2560, stop 1.8380, target 1.2190
GL (-:

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
hallo..
I hope my view can help you.
eur/usd
level sell : 1.2362 - 1.2416 - 1.2254 - 1.2285
level buy: 1.2165 - 1.2115 - 1.2080
gbp/usd
level sell : 1.8593 - 1.8493 - 1.8333
level buy : 1.8280 - 1.8225
aud/usd
level sell : 0.7159 - 0.7248 - 0.7357
level buy : 0.7070 - 0.7040 - 0.7100
usd/jpy
level sell :111.88 - 109.62
level buy : 110.96
usd/chf
level sell: 1.2669 - 1.2715 - 1.2635
level buy : 1.2416 - 1.2560 - 1.2540
gold
level sell :401.80 -402.70
level buy : 391.70 - 395.60
have a nice trade !!!

Bruxville Jim 07:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods 07:20 GMT // Aren't you accidently an analyst in my local bank?:)

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
bruxville jim...BTW,,which pair is the euro/usd pair among your local banks recommendations?..lol...jist kidding....g/t

Spr Noods 07:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
like your ideas Jim gl gt

Spr Noods 07:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
48 high so far mate
think u got the idea on the right track

Bruxville Jim 07:28 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
MARTIN // THANK YOU FOR YOUR VIEW.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 07:25 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
T.T.T.(toothless tiger trichet) will make a good Rip Van Winkle..he will awake after 100 years of sleep and try walk into a shop with 1 euro in his hand to buy a loaf of bread,,,..seriously/the only thing that will give the euro strength is a ECB rate hike..the euro can no longer draw its strength from usd WEAKNESS..THOSE DAYS ARE GONE..IT HAS TO CREATE ITS OWN STRENGTH AND A RATE HIKE IS THE START.....G/T

Bruxville Jim 07:25 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Recommendations from my local bank:
Sell @1.2260, stop 1.2295, target 1.2190
Sell @1.8340, stop 1.8380, target 1.8225
Buy @1.2560, stop 1.2530, target 1.2680

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods 07:20 GMT August 11, 2004

Thanks for sharing your view, Im short already and want to sell more on rallies with an out above 1.2300 ish..
I think momentum guys have been whipsawed of late and are left still a bit long and will bail below 1.2150 .

Spr Noods 07:20 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
on my own order Im offering 1.2255 s/l is sitting tight 1.2290 if wrong hope to see 1.2185-80

PAR 07:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
ECB seems to be the "sleeping beauty" among the worlds central and it could take years before Trichet realizes inflation could be a problem like he never believed in problems at Credit Liyonnais.

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods 06:59 GMT August 11, 2004

Do you think 1.2260-70 good level?

Spr Noods 06:59 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
be short the Euros some stage ciao

Spr Noods 06:58 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
yeah Spr boring city but enuf places to hang out

Bruxville Jim 06:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
An alternative example to those who like hieroglyphs...
Maybe will start adding translations next week or so:))

Mizuho Bank. Рекомендации по евро/доллар 10:34 11.08.2004

Комментарий. Пара не сумела закрепиться выше 1.2300, что предполагает консолидацию ниже этого уровня, возможно, до конца текущей недели. На сегодня мы ждем движение в пределах 1.2200/1.2300. Прорыв выше 1.2300 позволит быкам снова попытаться подняться до ключевого сопротивления 1.2460/1.2500.

Стратегия. Покупка 1.2240, добавить на 1.2200, стоп ниже 1.2150. Закрыть лонги на подходе к 1.2300, возобновить покупки выше 1.2320 с целью 1.2450.

(Please don't take this too seriously, there's just nothing much to do in the market...)

Spr Noods 06:57 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
no offence ... pretty academic reading?

hk ab 06:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
no matter you like to see it or not, ldn.

hk ab 06:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
We will be surprised by the string of artificial "good data" later.

Ldn 06:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The dollar edged down against the yen in Asia Wednesday, weighed by lingering skepticism over the U.S. Federal Reserve's upbeat economic in doubt ."The shock from (last Friday's) weak U.S. payrolls data was quite big," so the Fed's optimistic words alone aren't enough to eliminate traders' worries over U.S. economic uncertainties,
Senior trader major Japanese bank

Ldn 06:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
The dollar edged down against the yen in Asia Wednesday, weighed by lingering skepticism over the U.S. Federal Reserve's upbeat economic in doubt ."The shock from (last Friday's) weak U.S. payrolls data was quite big," so the Fed's optimistic words alone aren't enough to eliminate traders' worries over U.S. economic uncertainties,
Senior trader major Japanese bank

Moskow 06:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
if you are looking for reliable historical data for trading system verification
and precise technical analysis visit this
This is one of the trustworthiest & effective forex quotes history for intraday trading over net.
Intraday data are presented since 1997.

KL KL 06:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim, how about you posting something in Navaho language....LOL...btw what are your possie now?? been a bit of a wait like watching grass grow. I am flat just waiting to see some action in London & NY session! Ok...short eur jpy 136.18...sl 15 above looking for 40 pips below first..gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 06:47 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 05:14 GMT - Send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see my page. The first 2 weeks are free trial anyway.

Sin Sam 06:45 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
HI SPR Noods,

you from Singapore too?

Cheers

Bruxville Jim 06:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Correction: that girl. GL.:)

Bruxville Jim 06:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, didn't notice the English translation, I guess previously that guy didn't translate. But there is little use of hieroglyphs to vast majority here whatsoever...
Anyway, seems many of you get some kind of emotional satisfaction from watching hieroglyphs, so let it be...

Spr Noods 06:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
YiChi sounds pretty much a lady's name btw

lima 06:33 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
its chinese, and she is a girl. gl gt.

Belgrade Knez 06:32 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 06:22 GMT August 11, 2004

You can show little courtesy here. There is a translation in English if you haven't notice.

Ldn 06:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
We should thank the guy for taking the time to post , not attack him .. not having a go jim but seem like good levels and logical post there

Spr Noods 06:30 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
the top half is Chinese the bottom half is a replica of what he says ...in English

KL KL 06:29 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Mr. Bruxville Jim.....before you shoot from hip NOTICE the English version.....all languages no prob man as long as they are translated. .... after all this is a UN forum!!!

Bruxville Jim 06:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
I'm very sorry, maybe they are japanese. Still, the same applies...

Bruxville Jim 06:22 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
XXX 06:16 GMT // Is it so hard to notice that this is an English speaking forum??? Getting p off by these chinese pictures... gl.

中国 06:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   

**神秘点的探索**8月11日--(yinzi)
一、8月11日的神秘点是:
序 货 币 可能低点 可能高点 天图趋势 操作参考 预测本周高低点
0 美元指数 88.00 89.00 空 87.00 / 89.40
1 欧元/美元 1.2190 1.2300 多 1.2200多 1.2130/ 1.2500
2 英磅/美元 1.8200 1.8380 多 1.8200多 1.8300 / 1.8670
3 澳元/美元 0.7080 0.7200 多 0.7080多 0.7050 / 0.7297
4 瑞朗/美元 1.2560 1.2680 空 1.2680多朗 1.2320/ 1.2680
5 加元/美元 1.3140 1.3320 空 1.3150空加 1.3000 / 1.3250
6 日元/美元 110.60 112.00 多 112.00多日 109.40 / 111.30

以上数据仅供参考,风险自负!但一定要定好自己认为能承受的止损位!!
当买进以后。价上到30点以上就要提止损到买价!以保不亏。这种提示仅供参考,可自行操作。
祝大家好运!
yinzi QQ:30963505 E-mail: [email protected]
2004年8月11

Information of Aug 11h, 2004
NO Currency Low point possible High point possible Trend of daily graph Reference for operation The lowest and highest point of this week’s forecast.
0 DINIW 88.00 89.00 Down 87.00/89.40
1 RUD/USD 1.2190 1.2380 Up Buy at 1.2190 1.2130/ 1.2500
2 GBP/USD 1.8200 1.8380 Up Buy at 1.8200 1.8300 / 1.8670
3 AUD/USD 0.7080 0.7200 Up Buy at 0.7080 0.7050 / 0.7297
4 USD/CHF 1.2560 1.2680 Down Sell CHF at 1.2680 1.2320/ 1.2680
5 USD/CAD 1.3140 1.3320 Down Sell CAD at 1.3150 1.3100 / 1.3400
6 USD/JPY 110.60 112.00 Up Sell JPY at 112.00 109.00/111.30


This chart is only for reference. Please be resposible with your own operation. Be sure to set a lowest cut point that you can afford!
In order to prevent lose, after you buy it, when the price increases by 30 points, you can set the lowest cut point to the price you buy. This operation is just for reference. You can do your own operation.
My QQ number is : 30963505,. Please feel free to contact me.
Good luck to everybody!!
E-mail: [email protected]
Yours sincerely,
Yinzi

Ldn 06:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Base Metals Ignore Fed Hike Copper Up On China buying

Syd 05:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR /USD Techs suggest market may be oversold .EUR/USD option-protection at 1.2320, ahead of 1.2325 exotic strikes. Stops at 1.2355 and above
Options today large USD/JPY 110.00 rolls off today. AUD/USD large 0.72 and 0.7175 strikes expire. FWIW

GOLD COAST MARTIN 05:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good Afternoon...Should euro breach the 12220 barrier in the next 3 hours 12175 will be seen today...should euro breach the 12245 barrier within the next 3 hours it will resume trading at the high end of the trading range that i posted last sunday(12225-12285}which is 12285...note that this only applies until end of ny trading session...g/t

LA fxnew 05:42 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Everyone seems sleeping after interest rate announcement :)

Ldn 05:41 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
SEATTLE (AP)--The ferry terminal in downtown Seattle has been closed to all traffic since a suspicious package was found by a ferry employee at about eight-15 this evening.

A ferry spokeswoman says the Washington State Patrol has called in the bomb squad to determine whether the package is a threat. Pat Patterson says a box was discovered leaning up against a pillar inside the terminal on the car deck level. That's the area where cars are held prior to getting on the boat.

Goes (NL) B747 05:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
due @ 18:00 GMT: US - July Treasury deficit

(1) The amount by which a sum of money falls short of the required or expected amount; a shortage: large budget deficits.

(2) A business loss

(3) A negative retained earnings balance. A deficit results when the accumulated losses and dividend payments of a business exceed its earnings.

for more: http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=deficit


gt

Ldn 05:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
High-Profile Political Assassinations Eyed By Al-Qaeda - Drudge

LA fxnew 05:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
qindex:

I dont have access to your page.
Could u share your view on gbp/usd?

Thank u much

FloridA vv 04:55 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Goes, but the only link I have its my charts, You have them too.

Goes (NL) B747 04:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 04:36 GMT August 11, 2004

the best news from your post are:
EUR/USD
EUR/GBP
GBP/USD
may you link me to the source?

tia & gt

Sydney EM 04:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Good news on Australian jobs outlook, with government's leading employment indicator rising for 6th consecutive month in August; indicator at 0.371 vs 0.347 in July. "This provides further evidence that employment growth could return to a rate that is above its long-term growth rate in the short to medium-term, following a brief period of moderation," Employment Department says. July jobs data due out tomorrow, expected to show monthly increase of 27,500, keeping unemployment rate at 5.6%
ABC news

FloridA vv 04:36 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Actually from monthly charts it looks like Yen pairs are building a long term uptrend. But question is, if those would be able to pierce 141.00 for Eur/Jpy, 125.00 for Usd/Jpy and 209.00 for Gbp/Jpy without giving up 400 - 800 pips first ?

FloridA vv 04:27 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Looks like its going to be a good trade for the next couple of weeks if not for months. Levels to be watched 134.45 & 131.80
I'm joining.

wisconsin tim 04:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
selling EUR/YEN 136.18 stops above 136.70 tp 135 will sell more at 135.75

wisconsin tim 03:54 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
next few weeks could be interesting in eur/yen

$/Y and E/Y Weekly Charts

Ldn Viewer 03:42 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:38 GMT - Always remember you must make own calls and pull own trigger , if you happy with position run it , happy with stops run it , you may of course be correct ..

My hourlies MACD still bullish , no sell signal yet ..

To me this market is at event risk , Techs are hard as events take out supports and resistances .. IMVHO

CA Clouy 03:38 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 03:19 GMT August 11, 2004
CA Clouy 03:15 - Watch oil prices .. if above $45 ,
Thx u for ur reply.
ouch, it's already $45.04/barrel now. but both short-term charts gave a sell signal. hmm, still a lot to study.

Ldn Viewer 03:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:15 - Watch oil prices .. if above $45 , USDJPY should go up as local importers will buy more USD to cover oil imports. Yesterday post FED the move up in USDJPY was all oil related hedge buying ... relief rally so to say , higher interest rates helped ... IMVHO

CA Clouy 03:15 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Peaceful market, silent forum. Shorted usd/jpy @111.42. s/l 111.65. Any view on this pair is appreciated.

Singapore Sfx 02:48 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
1.3205-08

la tim 02:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me where usdcad is at. my platform is down

Melbourne Qindex 02:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Sydney 02:35 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Australian Employment To Pick Up Again In
July Polled 22 economists shows that on average they expect the economy to add 27,500 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate tipped to stay at 5.6%, and the participation rate forecast to rise slightly to 63.6% from 63.5% in June, a surge in retail activity in June and July may fuel further jobs growth. The unemployment rate touched a 23 year low of 5.5% in May. It hadn't been lower since June 1981, when it was at 5.4%.
reuters

Chicago Irish 02:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GA:Lee.Pol Forum

Melbourne Qindex 01:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk m 01:52 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 01.40 - Thanks for that

chester wb 01:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, still got you email address-just need to get it to go thru.thanks

houston st 01:43 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Q -- I hope it listens very, very closely to you...if you're looking for a place to vacation, here is something I posted earlier on gvi...

China's first nude beach opens Aug. 12...if you need to contact BC better do it by the 11th...the entrepreneurial spirit is a wonderful thing.

good trades and a great vacation to you.

Spotforex NY 01:40 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
HK M


This may answer your questionSwiss Economic Info

Melbourne Qindex 01:37 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
houston st 01:14 GMT - I hope the market can listen to me a few more sessions then I am a happy man and ready to take my vacation.

hk m 01:34 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Anyone pls - is there any Swiss data out today or tomorrow?
Thanks and gt

Melbourne Qindex 01:31 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 01:11 GMT - Good morning! You are right, I need to concentrate more on my tradings.

houston st 01:14 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Q -- good day....hope the market is going your way this week.

melbourne farmacia 01:12 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
chester wb - ok.... do u need my email again ?

Spotforex NY 01:11 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Q - remember you need to pay the rent......

Melbourne Qindex 01:02 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : 396.8 : 397.3

chester wb 01:00 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
farmacia--I sent you a couple of e-mails but they keep bouncing. I'll keep trying

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 00:56 GMT - GBP/USD : Okay I will work on this one first instead of Gold.

LA fxnew 00:56 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
mr qindex:

what is your gbp/usd range for today?

Your range prediction is awesome.

Thanks for sharing.

Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

melbourne farmacia 00:50 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 18:31 GMT August 10, 2004
Faramcia, are you still long GBP? Where is your stop?

Closed out before sleep time...

Ga Lee 00:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Funny stuff Irish, don't happen to have that link to the "operators" still around by chance do ya? :-)

Sydney EM 00:46 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Index of consumer sentiment in Australia rose in August from July to 119.6 points, according to compilers Westpac and Melbourne Institute. Index managed to hold last month's hefty gains despite - oil price spiked 25% leading to 5% rise in domestic petrol prices, stock market was weaker, AUD fell 2.7%. "The resilience of consumer sentiment emphasizes the current strength of the Australian economy and confirms the likely need for higher rates later this year," Westpac head of economics Bill Evans .Westpac Bank.

KL KL 00:44 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish, did you mean the funny one or the serious show....I prefer the Mr . chow I & II LOL took profit on the remaining gbpusd long at +34 profit....prefer to have few bird in hand for 2 week food rather than only enough for dinner. Looks like all ccy will be in wire dance until someone use a stick to tip them over....gl

Chicago Irish 00:29 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Quindex:My eyes are working overtime these days :-)

Melbourne Qindex 00:26 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 00:24 GMT - I can only guess the range and will post it in my page only.

Melbourne Qindex 00:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 23:59 GMT - EUR/USD : For position trading one can easily get 100 - 130 pips in the current market condition.

CA Clouy 00:24 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT August 11
Dr. Q. will you post the range (high, low) on eur/usd for today's session? TIA.

Melbourne Qindex 00:23 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Keep an eye on Spot Gold and GBP/USD today!

Sydney 00:19 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Despite FOMC's optimistic statement about U.S. economy, some think it's more worried about weakness than it's admitting; Fed unlikely to raise rate to 2% from 1.5% within this year. Thinks Fed's positive statement was simply designed to justify latest rate hike and reassure markets about economy - and there may have been political considerations before presidential election
Mizuho Securities

Chicago Irish 00:17 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Q:God of Gamblers is one of my all time favourites!

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 23:59 GMT - EUR/USD : Foe position trading one can easily get 100 - 130 pips in the current market condition.

KL KL 00:16 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Morning all...a suprise that my "stop trap" caught quite a few gbpusd at 1.8250....so I will long it till ...not sure when. Already reduce half my exposure for +33 pips cos I made mistake by longing too much...nearly into margin call if it went down 20 more pips...oh well some mistake are good..reset sl loss to 1.8256.....some left for some nice dinner ...gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 00:13 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 00:11 GMT - Good morning! I see you watch cantonese movies too.

Chicago Irish 00:11 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
Qindex..........The Chow Yun Fat of analysts(and Gamblers too !)

Melbourne Qindex 00:09 GMT August 11, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 23:59 GMT - EUR/USD : It is better to look for a level to take a short position and try to get at least 50 - 100 pips.

 




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