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Forex Forum Archive for 08/14/2004

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ny amc 23:10 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
ICT...ML... Very well put. Just recently learned that myself and it makes you more disciplined which at the end of it all is what makes or brakes you. GT

ICT ML 22:52 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 20:56 GMT August 14, 2004
It's always interesting to hear the debates about R/R etc ...

Tim, I used to be of that mind as well.....I was that confident in my ability to be a trading genius....and for awhile I was invincible.

But the day that the real world awakened in my trading again....was BRUTAL.

You see, you build up your account over time, and every week you increase your trade size based on the new equity gains of the past week. So all those incredible winning streak trades were MUCH SMALLER than the inevitable first LOSING STREAK trades will be. In fact, depending on how fast the account was built up, one bad week at the same constant leverage% could wipe out half your gains. Another bad week could put you in the hole.

I say this because it happened this spring to my accounts. We went from being up +58%+/- YTD to down -21%YTD +/- between March 7 and March 21.

The good thing, was I realized I was screwed after several days and the trade sizes went back to the Feb levels until I got back on my game. That move saved my asss.

The good side was that from March 21 to April 25 I was on fire again and not only recouped the entire loss but added on top of the previous equity high YTD by another 18% YTD...and I was using lower leverage at that time.

So in my opinion, basing stops on your ability to constantly beat the market at an 80% win to lose ratio is dangerous. I calculated last week our YTD win to loss ratio is a pathetic 51-49, much lower than in the past. But the average winners were bigger than the average losers by a safe margin. And that is the secret to making $$$ and staying in the game.

Bruxville Jim 21:38 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Yet they may not execute at the price you click, rather they execute at the price that is quoted at the moment when your order is actually executed (what a nice sentence...), so there is some room for slippage even on market orders (positive slippage possible). Also, they don't guarantee your stops, rather they execute them at the first price available after hitting your order...
Good night, pals. Or rather have a nice evening if it's not night yet...

cairo K_sh 21:28 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas !

is it even possible to trade on weekends ? How come when all major banking institutes are closed ?! Is it not the case ?

Philadelphia caba 21:27 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
what do you think about sunday-monday $ move and hurricane Charley's damage?

Dallas GEP 21:23 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
BTW, I asked before but didn't get response. Does anyone have a platform that is tradeable on the weekends????

Dallas GEP 21:12 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
SNP...I was reading today in the local paper where Florida officials estimatated 14.5 billion...anyway it was bad regardless the Polynesian Hotel at Disney World in Orland sustained a HIGH degree of damage for example, that area howver was evacuated prior to the storm hitting.

LAX-LGB SNP 20:58 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
tarheel - hang in there
p.s. rem to look both sides before ya cross the street ;-)

GEP
$5 bn is the estimated insurance payout between AllState and State Farm

wisconsin tim 20:56 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
It's always interesting to hear the debates about R/R etc ...

I have been thinking lately and maybe someone else would have a thought (call me an idiot etc) about this.


It seems everyone always talks Risk/Reward on the basis of:
I have a 30 pip stop and hope for a 60 pip gain (1:2 or 2:1 whatever) but noone ever talks about the probability of the 30 loss vs. the 60 gain.
I could be wrong but that what it seems like to me.

If you have a system that would give you +100 pips 80+% of the time before a -200 loss.

I guess I am thinking (and I believe I read this somewhere but just can't find it) risk:reward should be adjusted/judged based on the probabilities of the risk getting hit vs the reward or am I just full of hot gas.

I anyone could help me out with places where I could go for more information it would be greatly appreciated.

wisconsin tim 20:39 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
interesting article in TA of S&C magazine on Forex trading utilizing Wilder's DMI (adx,di-,di+ and parabolic SAR) on both a daily chart and 1 hour chart.

I believe Wilder's DMI system in outlined in TA of Financial Markets by Murphy

Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Great to hear Tarheel!!! I was worried. This will be more costly than Andrew.

Calabash TarHeel 18:20 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hello Gep. I'm very happy to report that hurricane Charley has come in and gone. We had minimal damage and will be back to norm very shortly. My feelings go out to those in Fla. where Charley cut such a damaging swath.

Take Care

Dallas GEP 18:00 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
raton,

you have mail.

One of the very best possies Sunday may be usd/cad long from 1.3080 stop @ 1.3055 target 1.3120 (first one).

wisconsin tim 16:24 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
2nd time's a charm

RE: EUR/YEN bigger one above

Weekly Chart

Bangkok bkk 16:14 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:48 GMT

Thanks ab.

I probably stay sideline from Kiwi and Aussie too. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD is very difficult to predict as their CROSS rate quite strong recently.

However, I see the USD may resume its uptrend again in the next few week, and put the EURO and other currencies in weak zone for a considerable period of time.

Therefore, it is better to be bullish on USD. Especially against the JPY, CHF and CAD.

GL.

wisconsin tim 16:13 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
closing tags are your friend ... GV cleanup on aisle nine please

wisconsin tim 16:12 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
there's a bigger one above on the weeklys

Chart EURYEN

hk ab 15:54 GMT August 14, 2004
eur/usd needs to satisfy some desires to meet a real test on the topside....

What draws my attention more is eur/jpy... T.A. tells you that pix has broken the top pennant and will continue its north move, but... there's a big "?" in the sand.

hk ab 15:54 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd needs to satisfy some desires to meet a real test on the topside....

What draws my attention more is eur/jpy... T.A. tells you that pix has broken the top pennant and will continue its north move, but... there's a big "?" in the sand.

hk ab 15:48 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
bkk// apparently, nzd has broken the double top myth. I will be sideline till the fund guys back in Sept first.
Notes to watch nzd/jpy.......

I fully agree with 747... those sans know something we don't know.

I still insist that a WEAK USD has never helped to reduce the defiicit yet. Once US continues its hike to limit its people crazy consumption, eurozone economy probably crumbles with its high currencies value, aud and nzd maybe exempted from it yet as their currencies are not that overvalued comepared with USD.

lon ram 15:10 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
hello hk ,,
what is your expectations for the euro/usd for the next week?
thanks

Bangkok bkk 15:08 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi hk ab, nice to see you here. How are you?

Have you got any views on NZD and AUD?

hk ab 14:32 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
honestly speaking, I was surprised by that 55. BUT what I think is more important is to analyse the breakdown of the deficit rather than focusing on the BIG number...

Another wonder I have got after a short trip is the living cost in Euroland.....

How those people live with a living index 4-5 times than Chinese and 1.2 times than US?....

hk ab 14:28 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Interesting.....

that "hk ah pak" helped once again...
did you see dlr/jpy hit 112 first?

my short filled there.

Also, played eur range as bc mentioned 1.22-1.23, kicked in a long at 1.22.

All dlr/chf and dlr/cad were exited with lives.

Sydney Alimin 12:10 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, what does your analysis say about gbp/usd next week? any chance to go higher after initial consolidation on monday to see 1.8550/1.86 or do we have a better chance to sell it from this level? TIA

Bangkok bkk 09:40 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Wide Range Trading (1.1970 – 1.2540)

Euro traded in a volatile pattern on full of uncertaintyies recently.

Although short-term treand profile anticipates higher EURO levels vs USD. Looking for a test “Key Weekly Trend Resistance” at 1.2460 and the Fibonacci measurement at 1.2480 (.618 fibo) adjacently , the downside risk to test 1.2000 again remain intact. Making 1.1970 the critical level on a subsequent downturn.

Only a CLEAN breakout over 1.2480 and 1.2540 (resistance since early March, 2004) just beyond would disrupt the impression of a topping out process and give the Euro a medium term move en route to 1.2840 and 1.2930 further out.
A break below pivotal daily trend support (currently at 1.1970) would abort wide range trading EURO outlook. A break of 1.197 would commence a mid-term trend step lower to around 1.1350 by the end of the year.

GL. & GT.

perrie como 08:31 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
For what I saw that Oil CL went up due to problems in Venezuela and Iraq, so will not trust systems nor technical views for the time being, that mean the whole next week.

There are also big asian buyers in shortage of energy.

This means now way to retrace to me from that 45-46 level.

Regarding the euro, saying will stay 1.19 1.25 is little to extreme too, even if undertand the Qindex system is telling that, but since is only a quantized series of data coming out from a long side, I would consider possible errors on those predictions.

If gold resumes It uptrend too, then eur/usd might squeeze many in the upper 1.26-27

maybe next week or two..

perrie como 08:26 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
good morning Mr. Q

Melbourne Qindex 07:00 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to trade in the range of 1.19 - 1.25.

Melbourne Qindex 06:41 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil (Sep) : Pulling Back to 44.55


In the last New York trading session the market hit a record high of 46.65 and it closed at 46.58. As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is vibrating around the quantized level at 44.55 with an expected magnitude of 42.27 - 46.83. The odds are good that the market will retreat back to 44.55 which is serving as a super magnet in my system.


... // 42.27* - 43.41 - (44.55)* - 45.69 - 46.83* // ...

wisconsin tim 06:17 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Insert Stock Chart
select which one to do (OHLC/HLCV) etc
select the data series with those prices

Now you should have you basic price chart

Ok, now choose view->toolbars->chart to get the Chart toolbar available

Select the Chart, right click->source data
Series->add series->select the cells for the new series ... very important make sure category x labels is blank.

now on the chart toolbar from the dropdown choose the series you just added. Choose the scatter chart (few buttons to the right of dropdown).

Select the scatter points and right click Format and change the Patterns->line to Auto and Patterns->marker to none

Done

Calcutta Vikram 06:07 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi Wisconsin tim.....
Thanks for those charts. Can you please tell me how you've combined Lines and Candles together in an Excel Chart? That's something that I've been trying to crack for quite some time, but not been successful. Your input will be highly appreciated. TIA

wisconsin tim 05:37 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
HI/LO Vol ranges for Monday

see spreadsheet for volitility charts in excel since platform can't make vol bands =(

True Close HI Range LO Range
EUR/USD 1.2273 1.2289 1.2181
GBP/USD 1.8293 1.8298 1.8142
USD/JPY 111.27 112.13 110.95
USD/CAD 1.3199 1.3381 1.3251
AUD/USD 0.7116 0.7166 0.7082
USD/CHF 1.2380 1.2640 1.2510
EUR/JPY 136.59 137.04 135.88
EUR/AUD 1.7233 1.7247 1.7085
GBP/JPY 203.41 203.98 202.44
EUR/GBP 0.6706 0.6734 0.6690

GOLD COAST MARTIN 04:02 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 16:50 GMT August 13, 200
Yes Wien you have missed something...to put it simply the market goes up,market goes down...the higher it goes the harder the correction...As i said numerous times one piece of positive or negative data does not constitute a trend...Friday we had the whole up-down thing in one day.....it is an opportunity for smart traders to capitalise...picking the tops and bottoms is an art......from a position trade i am still a strong supporter of USD and will remain that way until end of 2004..In between we will tale advantage of situations like friday to enhance our positions and day trades......g/t

Melbourne Qindex 01:52 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : The position of my weekly cycle key quantized level is shifting lower from 1.2716 to 1.2589.


Melbourne Qindex 07:01 GMT August 8, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2380 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2716. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2380 - 1.2783. A barrier is located at 1.2447 - 1.2455 and it may block any further downward movement of the market. Initially the market is going to consolidate around the quantized level at 1.2514 with an expected magnitude of 1.2447 - 1.2582. The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart indicates that a strong momentum is required to carry the market from 1.2649 - 1.2783 as suggested by the difference in the frequency numbers between this two projected chart points. The lower barrier is located at 1.2380 // 12447. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2851 // 1.2918. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 135 pips and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2246 - 1.2918. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2380).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2246* ... 1.2380* // 1.2447 - 1.2514* - 1.2582 - 1.2649* - (1.2716) - 1.2783* - 1.2851 // 1.2918* ...


Melbourne Qindex 01:52 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : The position of my weekly cycle key quantized level is shifting lower from 1.2716 to 1.2589.


Melbourne Qindex 07:01 GMT August 8, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2380 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.2716. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.2380 - 1.2783. A barrier is located at 1.2447 - 1.2455 and it may block any further downward movement of the market. Initially the market is going to consolidate around the quantized level at 1.2514 with an expected magnitude of 1.2447 - 1.2582. The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart indicates that a strong momentum is required to carry the market from 1.2649 - 1.2783 as suggested by the difference in the frequency numbers between this two projected chart points. The lower barrier is located at 1.2380 // 12447. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2851 // 1.2918. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 135 pips and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2246 - 1.2918. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2380).

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

... 1.2246* ... 1.2380* // 1.2447 - 1.2514* - 1.2582 - 1.2649* - (1.2716) - 1.2783* - 1.2851 // 1.2918* ...


Dallas GEP 00:33 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel are you OK....I am worried about you friend with the hurricane thing

Calabash TarHeel 00:16 GMT August 14, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:31 GMT August 13, 2004
Anyone had current price on GBP/JPY please???

203.77 Bid on my platform.

 




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