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Forex Forum Archive for 08/16/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:56 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

NYC YIPPEE 23:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota Mark 04:52 GMT August 16, 2004

Are you crazy ? I have a bridge for sale.

Syd EM 22:50 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NAB strategists are expecting a hawkish RBA Deputy Governor Stevens speech today FWIW.

syd 22:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD should test 7195 resistance once its cleared should rally toward 7250

Dallas GEP 20:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Well actually to tell you the truth, I am going to take a break until Asia. So my view for now towards JPY is a wait and see posture.

wisconsin tim 20:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
if AUD/USD high doesn't break .7224 by close today then that should be the cap for at least the next 2 days.

Shorting AUD stops above .7230

Wien GD 20:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hi GEP ... closed that CADJPY also ... a minute ago.
What do you think about USD/JPY ... if I take a look at the 4 hours chart ... it looks like JPY starts strengthening ... reversal ahead (speculation on lower oil prices?!)? ... what is point of view?

houston st 20:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
nyc amc -- I am now....

Dallas GEP 20:18 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/cad longs at profit and also cad/jpy short at profit Square now.

ny amc 20:07 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Houston...St...........you around

Livingston nh 19:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's US CPI could surprise a couple of ways - the Core Rate might be 0.3% or more - real CPI, the headline rate, used a survey period in July that picked up the lowest energy prices (nearly $6 below current level) so the expectation is that real CPI might be 0.1% or less // It remains to be seen whether G'span's transitory inflation view is right -- lack of follow thru to Friday's move may be a sign that even a modest surprise might see 1.22 Eur and 1.82 cable again

USA Biscuit Boy 19:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Florida vv if you are short eur/yen and bought $/yen that is equivalent to entering a short eur/$ position to some extent or another. Might pay to wait for $ to show some strength before buying it against euro (say if eur/$ drops below 1.23).

FloridA vv 19:36 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Maybe now its a time to reload Usd/Jpy longs. But keep yourEur/Jpy shorts if u entered.

NYC 19:26 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Stocks Gain as Oil Prices Decline (RTRS)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday after easing oil prices gave investors relief, while generally positive earnings announcements from retailers fueled the improved sentiment.

Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 2 home improvement retailer, helped push the S&P 500 higher after it reported an 18 percent increase in second-quarter profit even though results trailed estimates as sales weakened in June.

Meanwhile, retailer Kmart Holding Corp. (KMRT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) gained after it reported its third consecutive quarterly profit as cost cuts made up for slumping sales.

High oil prices kept investors at bay, but crude has scaled back some from its all-time high of $46.91 set in overnight electronic trade.

"Oil is certainly helping," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

"The fear was that it wouldn't stop until it reached $50 a barrel, but it looks as though at least short term it has stopped. That in itself is encouraging."

September crude (CLU4: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 60 cents to $45.98 a barrel after Venezuelan electoral authorities said President Hugo Chavez survived a recall referendum, easing fears about the country's oil exports.

High oil prices are generally a drag on stocks because of their impact on corporate profit margins and on consumer spending.

The easing prices helped stocks stage a rebound from fresh year-lows hit last week.

Bangkok bkk 18:11 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 18:02 GMT

ad// Yes, you ‘re right about the JPY cross.

Thanks

KUWAIT SD 18:11 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Euro stands on with its rivals $ and Yen.
I think this could be continued for some more time.

Bangkok bkk 18:11 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 18:02 GMT

vv// Interesting idea.

Thanks

Johannesburg JW 18:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Merlin, thanks for your reply, I should have known better to ask in open forum. I would not expose my own trading system . My appologies, but it is nice to see a fellow trader on the forum. I have been around for about three years and still surviving. good luck and good trades

GER ad 18:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry,
CAD/JPY 84.90

GER ad 18:02 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 17:49,
Is not only USD/JPY IMHO, all Yen crosses are relative high (sell zone) and they correct some time (GBP/JPY from 204.70 EUR/JPY from 137.10 AUD/JPY from 79.70 CAD/JPY from 88.90...). With the USD relative weak on majors this could continue until all crosses breaking through or USD will be stronger on majors. GT & GL.

FloridA vv 18:02 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 17:49 GMT August 16, 2004
Something go wrong with my USD/JPY

Maybe short Eur/Jpy from here with s/l above 137 and 130 as a target for 2 weeks - 2 months is a better option.
GT

Bangkok bkk 17:49 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Something go wrong with my USD/JPY bullish view, maybe JPY need more times to consolidate before take off:

Exited long now @ 110.63 and stay sideline until Japanese trading session.

Johannesburg Merlin 17:33 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg JW:

I am sorry JW, and hello, but I won't be able to tell you. I have spent the best past of the last 8 years to perfect what we do. (Gulp, I think the word 'perfect' here is relative!).
We don't for a big bank or a fund, we have to survive and thrive from this market alone with no safety-net so the incentive and motivation was always there to eat, sleep and drink trading systems! I can only anwer or help in general terms, and ask for similar ideas and advice in return, but I am afraid I can't tell you our method.

Best wishes to you.
BTW we don't trade the ZAR, but do you?

B.A. BOCA 17:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim // the number one problem is that people tend to focus on the rewards first, and drawdowns second. it's simply humand nature to be optimistic and hope for that 10% chance. just look at the lottery and the 'what-if' mentality. it is a tax for the math-challenged.

and the drawdowns can be significant, a margin call in vegas can cost you a couple of fingers!

in my view, small-time forex traders definitely fit in that category-

FloridA vv 17:18 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 17:05 GMT August 16, 2004
wow ... just want to thank everyone for sharing their points of view


Yes you are right
In general if u"re a newbee, placing your trades the way your "cristal ball" is telling you - you have 90% of probability to lose all of it.
But if you spent 2 and more years in this business and stayed in the game, you have learned how to pay your bills and support the family from trading.
Good Luck in your researches.

Helsinki iw 17:11 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Not really disagreeing with you there tim, but casino´s are not really in the gambling business, they are doing statistical arbitrage( much like insurance companies), a fairly low risk kind of business. All they need is the zero on the roulette table.

Syd 17:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Aussie US names, eyeing stops above 0.7205 watch out for the twighlight zone NY close Asia open to run through

Ldn Viewer 17:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 16:38 GMT - Question for you , are you the same as Merlin Securities Advisors Limited , based in JHB ?

GA TJ 17:07 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry. That was for USDCAD

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:07 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
sell aud/usd now !! stp if show 0.7210
have catch my sell level 0.7199

GA TJ 17:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought there were some options in the 1.3050 area. Those obviously have been tagged. Also dealing with intraday OS conditions would lead me to believe that more downside is limited for now. Maybe not later. So I am going to tighten the stops up from my Short at 1.3100 from earlier today. Thinking TP @ 1.3015 area.

wisconsin tim 17:05 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
wow ... just want to thank everyone for sharing their points of view

came across this while searching on the subject of R/R and trading (basic gambler's ruin problem):

"You have $10 and your friend has $100. You flip a fair coin. If heads comes up, he pays you $1. If tails comes up, you pay him $1. The game ends when either player runs out of money. What is the probability your friend will end up with all of your money? From the second equation above, we have p = q = .5, W = $10, and R = $100. Thus the probability of your losing everything is:

1 - (10/(10 + 100)) =.909.

You will lose all of your money with 91 percent probability in this supposedly "fair" game.

Now you know how casinos make money. Their bank account is bigger than yours. Eventually you will have a losing streak, and then you will have to stop playing (since the casinos will not loan you infinite capital).

A person who has $1000 in capital and bets $10 at a time has a total of W = 1000/10 = 100 betting units. That’s a fairly good ratio.

While a person who has $10,000 in capital and bets $1000 at a time has W = 10000/1000 = 10 betting units. That’s lousy odds, no matter the game. It’s loser odds."

--by J. Orlin Grabbe



Johannesburg JW 17:04 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Merlin, what signals do you use for execution of order
Thank you and good trading

syd 17:02 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hedge Fund buyers on Aud is providing support

Dallas GEP 16:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Thks Laowen. SOMEONE should start selling the cad at SOME point today

San Diego bobl 16:55 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Merlin...
you could really get me going about these subjects, however, let me add a little of my two cents on your comments. First, I have found it is very prudent to vary size according to quality of set-up and probabilities etc. All trade set-ups are not equal. I do not trade the same size on a highly volatile or momentum trade as I would a less volatile market or condition. On losing and scaling down...for me, it depends if FEAR is overtaking the present moment and consciousness. Losses are expected and can be viewed as an opportunity to learn. If losses create fear, then I would not even want to trade until I addressed that cripling concern. I suscribe to the belief that this game is 90% mental, and the other 10% is in your head!

Beijing Laowen 16:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP, shorting CAD/JPY @ 84.71 is a good idea. It is being faced up with a long term resistence ard.85.00.

Johannesburg Merlin 16:38 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk: Sounds good.

We have found we needed to enter every single signal which our system gives, with no second guessing or interference, with the exact same trade size, you simply don't know which is going to be the paying trade. And "cutting down on exposures" during a losing streak, as used by many (even famous) traders is a massive statistical error. If you feel the need to cut down on trading size, you were trading too large to start off with in the first place.
We also use "different timeframes" to stagger / scale into trades which helps with risk and diversification.

These are just my thoughts, I guess whatever works for one, doesn't for another. I'd love to hear more of these ideas shared, as there is no right or wrong, that's why we have a market!
:->
Best to you all.

Dallas GEP 16:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Cad/JPY short @ 84.71

San Diego bobl 16:04 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Good commentary by both...It has taken me years to appreciate the wisdom of letting trades work for you and really staying out or tight fisted when the move isn't there...good stuff.

nyc jk 16:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 21:58 GMT August 15, 2004
Hey Jim and Jk,

To add what you are saying, we have tried for years to trade a system which takes quick(ish) profits in comparison to a larger stop. Our entry technique was very accurate + high frequency of trades. Hence our accuracy was high combined with low profits.
However, we have turned that around completely a few months ago, and returned faithfully to a philosophy of "letting our profits run", using a trailing stop with no profit-target, using the same highly accurate entry technique as before. Result is (obviously) less trades, much lower accuracy, but MUCH larger profits.


Merlin - thanks for sharing your experience. I have generally found the same here. I trade using various techniques, ultimately discretionary, but I have done quite a bit of work with trend following models and use them in part of my trading. Of course, as Viies has pointed out, FX patterns have made it a money losing period for medium trend followers recently, but over time these models do very well in fx and commodities. One of the keys is managing the losing periods (drawdowns) effectively so you are in a good position to take advantage of the big moves. Most of these types of systems have similar characteristics as your own, they make money on a relatively low number of trades, get chopped up in ranges, but when the big moves happen they catch them with big sized postions and that's where the gravy comes.

TJ - on the help forum for you

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:54 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 15:49 GMT August 16, 2004
actually now only action when my entry evel be met.
but for short term if show 1.8422 better tray sell with stp 1.8435 or now you can buy with stp 1.8370 for tgt 1.8425.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf
level sell :
1.2643 stp 1.2660
1.2535 stp 1.2550
1.2603 stp 1.2625
level buy :
1.2369 stp 1.2650
1.2280 stp 1.2265
1.2237 stp 1.2200
1.2221 stp 1.2200
gold :
level sell :
401.80 stp 403.50
402.70 stp 403.50
405.30 stp 406.20
level buy :
397.50 stp 394.50
396.00 stp 394.50

Los Angeles ss 15:49 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
raden mas -- what is your take on GBP from this level at this time?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:47 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy
level sell :
111.23 stp 111.45
110.80 stp 111.45
113.44 stp 113.65
level buy :
109.62 stp 109.50 (major)
109.37 stp 109.00 (major)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
level sell :
0.7199 stp 0.7215
0.7248 stp 0.7260
0.7276 stp 0.7290 (major)
0.7340 stp 0.7360 (major)
level buy :
0.7145 stp 0.7100
0.7125 stp 0.7100

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
level sell :
1.8520 stp 1.8540
1.8590 stp 1.8635
1.8518 stp 1.8635
level buy :
1.8297 stp 1.8280
1.8246 stp 1.8220

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:42 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
My little view :
Eur/usd
level sell :
1.2416 stp 1.2430 (major)
1.2612 stp 1.2640 (major)
1.2499 stp 1.2520 (major)
level sell :
1.2282 stp 1.2160 (major)
1.2237 stp 1.2237 (major)

hk ab lazy 15:38 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
DOWJ knocking 10,000 door again...

Bangkok bkk 15:38 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:34 GMT

See you tomorrow ab.

hk ab lazy 15:37 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Aud/jpy had spent so many days and still couldn't succeed in closing above 79.5 fwiw (with one day exception)......

Bangkok bkk 15:36 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:32 GMT

AUD/USD? .........Probably not until Monday/Tuesday next week when the FELLOWSHIP of the Asian Sharks begin.(Will tell you this story later...)

hk ab lazy 15:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ask Dr. Q and he may be able to give you the answer :D

hk ab lazy 15:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
got tired, see ya all later.
bkk// Just keep an eye on eur/jpy, it may beat a lot of chart works.

Bangkok bkk 15:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:25 GMT August 16, 2004
some gravity on eur/jpy observed?

Yes, but I don't know why Euro fell sharply against JPY today.

hk ab lazy 15:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
aren't you interestd in aud short at the moment?

hk ab lazy 15:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
aren't you interestd in aud short at the moment?

Bangkok bkk 15:29 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 15:25 GMT

Yes ab , I already exited with only 40 pts profits @1.2340

However, I probably stay sideline from EUR/USD until the middle of the week and try to go long at the lowest level I could get on Wednesday.

GL.

hk ab lazy 15:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
some gravity on eur/jpy observed?

hk ab lazy 15:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
bkk, have you exited your eur short yet and long here?

Bangkok bkk 15:03 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY long order filled @ 110.60 , Stop at 110.20 , T/P at 111.50

Chicago Irish 15:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Viies......hypothetical warnings apply. Good hunting mate.

Bangkok bkk 15:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Melb R K 14:29 GMT August 16, 2004

IMHO ...on EUR/USD

Robot trading system for EUR/USD: Very Short-Term View (Day trade / Intraday trade)

The euro rallied 200 pips last Friday as the trend of weak data from the US continues. It is expected that EUR/USD will retest 1.2385/400 resistance zone early this week, and then fell to the level of 1.2300/1.2325 support zone to consolidate. Towards mid-week it is expected to become firm to the level of 1.2350 and by week end is expected to rally to the level of 1.2450 – 1.2480

Trading Strategy: 1) Take short during rise to 1.2380/400 on Monday and cover during correction to 1.2310/330
2) Good time to take long position during correction to 1.2310/330 before the end of the week and cover during rally to 1.2450/480 by the end of the week.

Note: For Intraday trade / Day trade

1.Always operate with 30-40 points stop loss above or
below the entry level.

2. Always, in a day, make it a point either to take long if
low price achieves first or to take short if high price
achieves first.

GL.

Tallinn viies 14:49 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
brent is up 50% year on year and up 35% from the beginning of the year.
history have seen moves more than 100% per year.
so, what if hictory repeat itself?

London e 14:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
American stock markets going up today.

Chicago Irish 14:42 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
gvm:if the someone is Joe Bloggs then you are right.

Surabaya Medallion 14:41 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like market is still waiting for the CPI data before resuming EUR trend.

hk ab lazy 14:40 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 14:36 GMT August 16, 2004

From local reports, the COOL down by China is a drastic cut on oil consumption, along with other commodities. And yet, the official said, the cut is NOT enough.

hk ab lazy 14:38 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
one piece of USD bearish scenario in my chart is nzd breaking .6630 double top. BUT, with such a thin mkt in nz, could you expect it takes the lead? (not challenging the move, but it's just not convincing enough). And aud/nzd is touching those sensitive low as well....

Dallas GEP 14:37 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Cad pairs are starting to look a little bullish now.

Sydney gvm 14:36 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish - India/China may not have a choice about oil price they pay if terrorists hit a few crtitical pipelines - dont you think/? I find the skepticism and accusations of manipulation a bullish factor - someone' short and caught

hk ab lazy 14:35 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
gvm// I am happy to see such move we have now in the summer on usd.....GT and GL. This summer thin mkt is a must.

Ldn 14:35 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy ahhh and not all from me dickhead

hk ab lazy 14:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 14:30 GMT August 16, 2004
hk ab lazy think you have been listening to too many stories

At least, I have got more than 5 "USD-bearish" stories from ldn.

Chicago Irish 14:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Agree on trend Viies especially backwardation type but supply/demand sets trends in the long run.

Tallinn viies 14:30 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
some words are missing ...
nevermind

Ldn 14:30 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy think you have been listening to too many stories

Melb R K 14:29 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hi guys
anyone there care to make prediction on eur/usd
I thought eur would go up but so far I am wrong
any thoughts welcome

Tallinn viies 14:28 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 14:22 - thnks a lot. I know those details but trend is trend as long it bends (as they. something like that)

and as I said earlier we are overhedged right means short.
means picture is not rosie for but very greay at the moment if this continues ,....
fwiw

Sydney gvm 14:24 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy - but who are you talking about ? Macro Hedge Funds? Prop traders at investment banks? who exactly are these funds? Which market are you referring to in terms of manipulation?

Chicago Irish 14:22 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Viies:Don't want to disturb your rosy outlook but gas prices have been falling at the pumps for weeks now.....so demand in the US not matching supply apparently,backwardation markets always go further and farther than neccessary before the whiplash effect hits.Overall oil will have decent demand from China India etc in the future but not at these prices.

hk ab lazy 14:22 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
gvm// This break is normal every year.
Otherwise, we couldn't see such a lot of manipulated move.

Ldn ;-) 14:22 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 14:08 GMT August 16, 2004
once Sept fund guys come back
are you joking, I suppose they are all on the beach

Sydney gvm 14:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy whaddya mean by Sept Funds guys? Personally I dont know any Funds that take a holiday in August?

Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 14:08 GMT - why you think in sept guys start to sell?
oil has been basically single market where hedge funds have been able to follow the trend. they dont want to ruin this trending market....
of course fundamentals may change the picture dramatically if millions of ships finally arrive to US.
imho

hk ab lazy 14:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
the twins eur/jpy and eur/gbp once again betrayed its cousin eur now....

hk ab lazy 14:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
sounds like you just got a eur long @ 1.2360...

Ldn 14:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy again its wan.kers like you that ruin a good website

hk ab lazy 14:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
once Sept fund guys come back, ldn, let's see who's the idiot....

I don't care, simply.

hk ab lazy 14:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ldn// I look forward one day you can tell us what your entry/exit is.... not just ample of advertisement everyday.

Dallas GEP 14:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
In on eur/cad long @ 1.6140

Chicago Irish 14:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn....Thankfully it's just an oil well and not a pipeline

Gen dk 14:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NYC PCM 14:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Anybody else use cycles?

I see EUR as moving down from here into the 40 week cycle low which theoretically is going to be around November12th.

Ldn 13:57 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NEWS: Shi"ite Militia Set Oil Well On Fire-Iraq Govt-Reuters

hk ab.. arrogant and very ignorant you idiot

USA Biscuit Boy 13:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
It might pay to wait to buy dollars until next month.....July was just as bad if not worse than June over here. Maybe 1.25/26 a good place to build long dollar positions. Just wait for the first signs of improving US data and the markets belief in that data (look at the Dow for a hint). GL and GT.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 13:45 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Euro reverting back to short term trading range of 12225-12285
range....g/t

Los Angeles bernie 13:42 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain --- what is the Baharine denar in US dollar and Euro please. Is there any difficullty any trading the Baharine denar?

PAR 13:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Stil looks like european central banks are trying to cap EURO strength ?

Cuper 13:31 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
buy the fact ? means that us economy is not as bad as the rumours, and it is now to buy usd ?

Gen dk 13:27 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London e 13:24 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
US Economy: Sell the rumour, buy the fact.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 13:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab Hear AC/DC " Fly on the wall" )) lol

hk ab lazy 13:21 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
where's the "gold fly"?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 13:20 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
I am Not sure...
I think the yen will be very volitile this week...
Buying cad at 1.3030 for a figure

FloridA vv 13:19 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Its up to you.
I still stick to my shorts and will add below 2330/25
GT

lon ram 13:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
mr florida,,thanks about the information
after what you mentioned about i mean the (TIC)repeort,,what do u think about euro now,?should we buy?

NYC PCM 13:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/EUR

this failure to break reistance angles on those reports leads me to feel my bullish TA picture is correct. Shorting Euro here

FloridA vv 13:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
According to the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report foreigners madea $71.8 bln net purchase of US securities in June, up from a revised $65.2 bln in May (prev. $56.4 bln).
The report suggests foreign demand for dollar assets picked up and inflows are still more than sufficient enough to cover the current
account deficit.

Cuper bw 13:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone is going to buy euro now ?

H.K. SH 13:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
71.8 B and last month was 65.2 B

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 13:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js1858.htm

Eilat Dolphin 13:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
How come we get this TIC so late? Is Greenie riding some camel now?

hk ab lazy 13:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
syd// per your mention "funds are waiting to dump USD".... any hints on the names?

Los Angeles ss 13:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
71.8 Bln in equity inflows.

slovenia M 13:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ANY infos on what moved a market minutes ago...

NYC PCM 13:05 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
anybody know what the TIC # was? I guess no too bad looking at mkt?

hk ab lazy 13:03 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ldn et al... buy your euros here now, otherwise, it will "fly"...

hk ab lazy 13:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
any number?

hk ab lazy 13:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello oilman....

Do you rely on Bloomberg/CNBC/CNN often? hehehe....

NYC PCM 12:59 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD - consolidating here just above my key resistance angles, getting more bullish.

Johannesburg Merlin 12:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv: My ally is patience....the essence of it might even allow both of us to make money!

But patience is often the hardest thing in the world. I guess that's why not everybody can do this.

Best to you

GL GT

UAE Oil man 12:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like dollar needs a new injection of dollar confidence by Alan Greenspan.
It was nearly a week ago(a very long time this days in this biz..), market has forgotten you said economy is ok, how the rates are going to increase at a measured pace..Market has short term memory, or is starting to have doubts (again), you better come back and beat the iron while it's hot.

hk ab lazy 12:55 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Nemo, fly? ....hahha

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 12:49 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold fly ... what's on?

CA Clouy 12:47 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
FYI:The headline Empire index came in at a disastrous 12.57 for August, vs 36.54 in July. That is the lowest reading since May of 2003. The median estimate was for a 33.40 reading. The prices paid index came in at 49.59 vs a prior 56.41, employment, miraculously, at 16.98 vs 13.06. The new orders index cut in half to 14.85 vs a prior 28.57. This will provoke anxiety till the bigger factory surveys either confirm or refute the Empire results.

Eilat Dolphin 12:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Florida/ Watch your roof, but don't hold to it!

NYC PCM 12:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD

Still feeling more bearish, but situation somwhat more amiguous after that run up on empire State news.

Not willing to short ahead of TIC though.

FloridA vv 12:43 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
And it looks like its gona Drop, Drop, Drop. So picked up some shorts @ 2360 will add below 2325 stops above 24
Good trades to everyone

slv sam 12:40 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
the real test for euro is 1.2450/60 this week...this will open the way for 1.30/31 target during September AIMHO.GT

London e 12:40 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2391. 15 pip stop.

FloridA vv 12:39 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 12:31 GMT Obviously something is holding it from usual hop hop hop

Johannesburg Merlin 12:31 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
And here we go, hop on, hop on!

GENEVA FHR 12:30 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Empire State 12.6

Johannesburg Merlin 12:28 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hey Tallinn Viies: One man's side-ways market is another man's very short term trends!

Tallinn viies 12:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 12:18 - this year they are all dead :)

GER ad 12:22 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY,
Out at 203.91 (don't like surprises - data...)

Johannesburg Merlin 12:18 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
My two-cents worth:

The intermediate trend is your friend. The EUR and its kissing cousins will continue to strengthen this week.

Interestingly I have found that a lot of traders on this forum like picking tops / bottoms, selling high and buying low, etc.
Any short-term traditional trend-followers out there?

GL nonetheless!

Eilat Dolphin 12:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi all! Anyone has the estimated number of TIC (Treasury International) due out in 45 minutes ?

Tallinn viies 12:15 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 12:09 GMT - noooo, I still think most of the guys want to buy on dips even here. this is just tiny time correction before new push higher. imho of course

Haifa ac 12:13 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Energy// CNN "FINALLY" had the ubiquitous piece about COMMODITIES SPECULATORS who "gamble" and push price of oil higher (while informing us that there is NO SHORTAGE OF OIL) (with the pictures of the young bucks in the pit....)

More often than not--when the network are given the signal to push such news-- that means that the game is over.
We shall see.

hk ab lazy 12:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
viies// avalanche has started with the piece of Venezula news?

GER ad 12:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Long GBP/JPY at 203.77 tight S/L

Gen dk 11:59 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NYC PCM 11:48 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
also we poked our nose fractionally above some key resistance angles since late Friday, but now we're dipping back below again.......... Looks like the upward break is failing.

the only way I see this truning back up is if the TIC report (or some other news) is awful and we just blow through resistance and the bearish divegences like a rocket. and that's all together possible!

Melbourne Qindex 11:48 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Keep an eye on EUR/JPY.

NYC PCM 11:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD

My TA says this is going down, that likely the trend has turned back down. cyclically it looks like it's going down into a nest od cyclical lows located near mid-November.

The top yesterday had major divergences on my charts which tend to back up the idea too.

Yet I find myself doubting it from a Fundamental analysis angle............. Especially with the TIC report today, which has huge upsdie risk for Euro.

What do you all think?

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 11:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
16.08.2004 (6:30am Us Time).

TODAY`S DATA:

8:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) PREV. 36.54 FOR. 32.15

8:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m (Jun) PREV.-2.6% FOR. -2.0%

13:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) PREV. 67 FOR 66

19:50 GBP RICS House Price Survey (Jul) PREV. 17 FOR. 10

USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 110.92) – FRIDAY`S FATAL US DATA WEAKED USD TO 110.40 REGION. TODAY DURING JAPANESE SESION WE TESTED THE NEST MINIMUM AT 110.32 REGION. NOW WE ARE WITNESSES THE CORECTION, WHICH SHOULD GO TO 111.00/40. UNTILL COURSE IS BELOW 112.50 STILL IS A CHANCE FALL BELOW 110.00.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2339) – AS WE EXPECT FRIDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.2350 SUGGEST THAT LONG POSITION WAS REBUILT AT 1.2320 AND THERE SHOULD FIND NEW TRADERS EAGER TO BUY EUR AND IN THIS WEEK WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.2500 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2427) – AS WE EXPECT AT FRIDAY 1.2490 REGION WAS BROKEN AND WE REACH MINIMUM AT 1.2380 REGION. AT 1.2470/80 SHOULD FIND NEW TRADARS EAGER TO BUY CHF.

GBP/USD ( CURRENT LEVEL 1.8441) – FRIDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.8340/60 CHNGE NEGATIVE IMAGE OF GBP, AT 1.8340/60 SHOULD APPEAR THE NEXT DEMAND FOR GBP. IN THIS WEEK BULLS SHOULD MANAGE RESISTANCE AT 1.8460 AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.8550 REGION.

Melbourne Qindex 11:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Speculative selling will increase if the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 136.52 - 136.66.

Bangkok bkk 11:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: Intraday Trade
Adjust order long usd/jpy to 110.60 , Stop 110.20 , T/P 111.50

Melbourne Qindex 10:54 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT - You are welcome.

Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks Albert, in that case, entry waiting at 204.65 on gbp/jpy short

Melbourne Qindex 10:47 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : A projected barrier has been established at 204.66.

Melbourne Qindex 10:41 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:40 GMT August 16, 2004
GBP/JPY : Expected trading ranges are 201.50 - 203.33 - 205.15

Dallas GEP 10:39 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Will try short gbp/jpy short with tight stop IF 204.70 is seen

syd 10:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Buying The Dip Propping Market, Funds Look To Dump USD

Los Angeles ss 10:31 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all for the info on the TIC announcement.

pd cumino 10:29 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
QC PGM 10:24 GMT August 16, 2004
The hours are right, the rest is an error type. This is:
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/index.html

QC PGM 10:24 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Cumino, thnx, will check it out.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 10:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:21 GMT August 16, 2004
BTW Bahrain No reuters feed right now

//
Thanks...

pd cumino 10:21 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
http://www.davesite.com/webstation/html/chap04.shtml
13:00 GMT 9:00 NYT

Dallas GEP 10:21 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
BTW Bahrain No reuters feed right now

Dallas GEP 10:19 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
At 70MPH and 43 feet to the plate, a girls fastpitch fastball gets to the plate FASTER than a MAjor Leaguers FASTBALL. We had a radio staion guy here BET a high scool fastptich softball pitcher that he could get at least OUT out of 10 pitched balls in play. NO CHANCE he didn't come close and when he tried to bunt she threw him a rise ball LOL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 10:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:13 GMT August 16, 2004
BAHRAIN, BTW your call on GBP/CHF was just about PERFECT......made some very nice money on those longs!!!

I Thanks for that... :)

Los Angeles ss 10:13 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone -- when will the US Capital inflows be announced today?

Dallas GEP 10:13 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
BAHRAIN, BTW your call on GBP/CHF was just about PERFECT......made some very nice money on those longs!!!

Dallas GEP 10:11 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Well that's a good point RE: EROS.....BTW The SO Afican Swim 4 x 100 relay team was UNBELEIVABLE new World Record.

saloniko 2004 nk.. 10:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

GBP/J and USD/J moved surply higher..
daily candles scare me..cos might will move higher..

The lesson better cut one finger than all the harm as my Dr say might be right cos u have less stress..

Then u will focus again on ur direction..
Think when u lose is time for Holidays..under the sunn!

nk

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 10:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...GM,
U have a reuter's screen?
I need Historical Hourly data for the NDX Dow (2000 + Data Points)

Date/Time Open High Low Close

If anyone could help with that...I would really appreciate it.
Thanks

QC PGM 10:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
PD Cumino
may i ask for the link where u got the data on TICs? tnx

GER ad 10:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:53,
Try Eros, must be now in Athene...

QC PGM 10:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on the TICs data later at 13:00GMT? tia

Dallas GEP 09:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GOOD ANSWER......That's what I thought EXACTLY. LOL

Rivonia Pi(m)pPirate 09:56 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:53 But not the spelling Dr.

Rivonia Pip(m)Pirate 09:55 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:53 Why me of course.

Beijing Laowen 09:53 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Very quiet market, making one drowsy.

Dallas GEP 09:53 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Pippirate, who would the LOVE doctor be????

Rivonia PipPirate 09:47 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ny omar 09:01 GMT If you were sick would you go onto a forum on the internet for advice? You need a financial doctor. Here is the address of a FX doctor, right click "login products" and pay Dr Qindex for a consultation.

hong kong nt 09:46 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
CRUDE OIL may see monthly high at ~47.8..FWIW..

Melbourne Qindex 09:45 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:44 GMT August 16, 2004
Spot Gold : 399.3 / 399.7

The current expected trading ranges are


... 396.4* // 397.3 - 398.2* - 399.1 - 400* // 400.9 ...

Ldn 09:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe I am in agreement with you but feel it may stay high until the early part of September , along with the others

Dallas GEP 09:44 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp/chf longs for profit. Square now.

GER ad 09:42 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY short,
out at 204.32

Hong Kong Ahe 09:40 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:04 GMT August 16, 2004 " ...Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott says it's just a matter of time before the USD loses ground against all major currencies, with NZD leading the way........"
I am having a query that the strength of NZD. In NZ, it is now in winter and it is not an oil producing country. Therefore, it is under influences by high oil price, no less than that of Japan. The Japanese kept buying NZD due to higher interest differential. But I'm afraid, no sooner than later, NZDUSD may slide from snow-top hill. IMO. Good trades to those who long NZD.

pd cumino 09:36 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Brief notes of TIC to put things in perspective ($bill):
Year to date: 2003 298, 2004 385. (Total net portfolio flows).
Ytd 2003 foreigner equity inflows +9, 2004 -8.
Ytd 2003 US foreigner equity purchases 25, 2004 37
Net equity infl.Ytd 2003=-16 2004=-45
Last three months on average -14.7 per month.

Finally while Ytd corporated and agencies inflows 2003 and 2004 are roughly equal (~100 corp., ~100 ag.), Ytd treasuries 2003=78, 2004=203.

In FX terms net equity inflows are those important, being the others mostly hedged. The other important source not hedged is FDI (mainly cash portion of M&A) Last BOP shows 18 inflows 1Q and -57 outflows. The extimated 2Q seems not better. FWIW.

hk ab lazy 09:36 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
th// thanks.

ldn//it's your choice.

Ldn 09:34 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy
FWIW I watch all the Newswires Bloomberg CNBC CNN etc etc and find a good variety of views across the board which fit into my own trading habits and have served me well , each to ones own

Ltn th 09:33 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
correction.... imports heavy crude...

Ltn th 09:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ab & farmacia. You were questioning Australian oil production a little while ago. My understanding is that Australia exports a proportion of its heavy crude but exports a serious proportion of sweet light crude. This does not benefit the country as a whole because of the governments import parity pricing scheme wherby the oil companies and government divvy up the obscene windfall profits and the businesses relying on fuel and transport suffer like those europe and US. This is on top of already punitive excise and taxation. Any country stupid enough to tax transportation or communications deserves what it gets.

hk ab lazy 09:30 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
LDN// I agree on further improvement in Asia but not in Europe.

hk ab lazy 09:29 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
LDN// You trust what CNBC says?.. a bit amazing to me.

Melbourne Qindex 09:29 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 09:28 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy watching CNBC analyst last week on that, they say that most will not want to repatriate as looking for further improvement in Europe and Asia. Different situation to Japan totally.

GER ad 09:28 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD short,
out at 1.2338

hk ab lazy 09:24 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
And seems everyone has overlook the effect on the Home investment plan.
Do you want to witness an effect on repatriation? Scroll back the weekly chart on dlr/jpy in 1998 and check it out.

hk ab lazy 09:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
nt// I don't mind to go with THAT direction if the Sept turns out to sell USD.

hk ab lazy 09:21 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, nt//I am sure that the answer will come when fund guys are back in Sept. GL.

Ldn 09:19 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Propelled by high oil and copper prices, Anglo-
Australian resources company BHP Billiton (BHP) is expected to report fiscal 2004 net profit of US$3.3 billion (A$4.6 billion) on Wednesday, up more than 70% from the previous year

Not everyone is reeling on the oil price..

lnd 09:17 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
ny omar 09:01 GMT. best help that i can give is to stay out. get back your composure and come back into trading again after a few days off. otherwise you will be prone to take silly trades just to try and recover your losses. i am not saying it cant be done but you need to be there mentaly to make money otherwise you will only compound your losses. this was a lesson i am still learning so not trying to be a smart a.s.s. or anything. gl to you.

London e 09:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Resold GBP/USD at 1.8444. That was just taking stops out. 10 pip stop at 1.8454. Good trades.

GER ad 09:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD ,
out at 1.3121 per limit order.
GBP/JPY short at 204.70 (maybe too early, but you never know...)

Ldn 09:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD stabilizing after slump, potentially weak manufacturing and securities inflow data later Mon could hit it hard

PAR 09:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Have suspicion some european central banks are selling Euro .

Gen dk 09:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London e 09:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
-9 pips. Now maybe 1.86 for short.

PAR 09:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Impressive move in Sterling helped by very high UK interest rates and sound policies of BOE.

Ldn 09:04 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt very true

ny omar 09:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
i have lost 20000$ in the past week .. i need immediate help!!!!!!!!!!!! tell me some exact trades ..
thanks

London e 09:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sell GBP/USD 1.8445 [email protected]

Gen dk 08:41 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hong kong nt 08:41 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:45 GMT August 16, 2004

"At the right opposite, US needs to find a way to cut down the spending to reduce the consumption. "

most American start to find a way out only after crisis surfaces..

"As an old morale, when US has a flu, Aussie, kiwi, Goose will get a big COLD"

what if US hasn't got a flu but in critical condition? will situation be different?


PAR 08:38 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable upside potential to 1.8600 if 1.8450 gives away.

eur lg 08:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
I sold half pos here at 110.81. Will sell the other half at 111.20 and reassess above 111.50.

Ldn 08:04 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott says it's just a matter of time before the USD loses ground against all major currencies, with NZD leading the way. For USD/JPY, she says momentum will turn bearish below 110.40 with dnside pressure increasing if prices hold below 111.00 this session
reuters.

hk ab 08:03 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Revdax// Don't tell me you have a retirement life now in van.

hk ab 08:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
new 1st entry eurjpy short 137.30, 2nd 137.85.

hk ab 07:59 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
many wishful thinkings today....

eur lg 07:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Is usd/jpy a sell soon ? (and from where ?)
FOR
1- Oil should correct lower this week. I can't see it maintaining this steep a rate of ascent without correcting lower. (usd/jpy the preferred vehicle due to likelihood of a eur/jpy correction as well)
2- Overwhelming weak data out of the US, combined with tomorrows flows data should give it a shove.
3- Not sure but I think there's a coupon redemtion coming soon which is usually accompanied by yen strength.
4- Seasonality. Although its not 100%, late August into Sept is more often than not a period of yen strength
AGAINST
1- Asian currencies are into this competitive deval thing. Its a tough fight going against this. If they don't want their currencies to strengthen- they won't.

Moskow 07:32 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Wanna test your trading system on a reliable history data?
Intarday forex history collected for seven years.

Melb R K 07:31 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
well done ty Ldn

Plovdiv Gotin 07:28 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Some ideas about $/SF mates? TIA.

London e 07:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
MelB go here
http://www.global-view.com/beta/forums/forum_ticker.html?f=1

KL KL 07:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
stop out eurjpy ...grrrrrr....136.97...or bah hum bug?? back to drawing board

Melb R K 07:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hi there
is there anyway to get scroll bars on this forum
I had them on friday but none today
any help would be appreciated

bahrain gd 07:09 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
calcutta,Vikram:At present I m having NRI status, therefore nothing required for it. For future Resident status ,I was interested to know. I consulted with some of my friends here but nothing clearly fall out.

Calcutta Vikram 07:05 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain gd.....I believe this is a very GREY area and the RBI seems to be very ambiguous about it. The law does not seem to debar it, but the RBI does not seem to want to encourage it either. Its not permitting Banks to offer even "multi-currency deposits" to Resident Indians. What is your own reading on this?

BAT BVI 07:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone! im new to trading forex and from what i've read, i think this forum is a very helpful one. btw, can someone advice me on a good stoch parameters? thank you all! :)

Ldn 06:48 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Weak US Capital Inflows May Hurt USD "if the coming numbers show a decline in capital inflows related to securities investment or indicate that equity-related inflows - which have strong ties with the foreign exchange market - remain weak, the market will take it as a dollar-negative factor."
- JPM

bahrain gd 06:37 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
calcutta, Vikram: IS there any RBI obligation required for starting Forex Trading as Resident IND.?

Tallinn viies 06:26 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:49 - good morning, yes fighting here with the trend.
as a terminal owner we have hedged some (right now over hedged) and trying to make money. hard work I must say .
FX much much easier :)

Sydney Alimin 06:24 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
thx Martin, that certainly gives me some trading ideas...cheers mate glgt

GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:19 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
That should read... 12250 by weeks end....g/t

GOLD COAST MARTIN 06:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 06:10 GMT August 16, 2004
The euro after a brief retracement back to 12320 will clinb back to 12375 after tonites data.....this is today only...with the declining oil price euro will grind its way back to 1250 range by weeks end and remain in the 12245-12285 trading for the another 9 trading sessions ...g/t..long term though euro has a lot of structural weaknesses and therefore a downward bias.....g/t

Calcutta Vikram 06:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have a decently reliable INTRA-DAY Support in GBPUSD, please? TIA

Sydney Alimin 06:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Martin, where do you see euro and aud go from here?TIA

KL KL 06:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Short eurjpt 136.72 sl 15 above looking for 50 pips below...maybe mistake this trade ..so careful gl gt

Syd 06:06 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Sellers at 0.7180/0.7200; Large stops above
IFR

hk ab 06:02 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
eur long exited.

hk ab 06:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
B747, look mkt is so kind to leave us so much room to short this little eur/jpy bird.

usa dollarbull 05:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
The Dollar is Screwed
the Federal Reserve is planning to destroy the U.S. economy by: printing the U.S. dollar in exponentially riskier quantities until it blows off the charts and crashes, and by easing credit and rates until the average individual and corporate debt loads are so enormous that the resulting massive distortions in the economy suddenly bring on an economic heart attack, leaving no possibility of a short or even medium-term recovery. That day is here!

hk ab 05:56 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
What those funds guy will think when they come back in Sept?
Would it be easier to do the opposite to clean up the herd or follow the herd?....

Summer summer, summer.

hk ab 05:56 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
What those funds guy will think when they come back in Sept?
Would it be easier to do the opposite to clean up the herd or follow the herd?....

Summer summer, summer.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 05:54 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:49 GMT August 16, 20002

When something reaches boiling point it starts to cool down afterwards...look for a correction back to 40-41 dollars for crude by end of this week....g/t

hk ab 05:49 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
oil is near to its boiling point soon. Viies, any interest in it?

hk ab 05:47 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
near my trail of that eur long now.

hk ab 05:45 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 05:00 GMT August 16, 2004

I guess you have at least got 10,000 + contracts in shorting USD.... otherwise, you don't need to keep up so many advertisements daily.

Why dying for USD weakness so openly? A lie becomes a truth after repeating a million times?

At the right opposite, US needs to find a way to cut down the spending to reduce the consumption.

As an old morale, when US has a flu, Aussie, kiwi, Goose will get a big COLD....

GL with your USD shorts positions.
(Though, I also got a long eur from 1.22)...

Ldn 05:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Continued strength in Australia's jobs outlook will spur faster wages growth in coming months, says Australia's biggest Internet job site. As of Friday, Seek had about 75,000 listings, up 50% from a year ago, reflecting both the buoyant employment scene and the increasing tendency of employers to advertise positions via the Internet.Australia's unemployment rate has been perched below 6.0% for the past 11 months, the longest period of sub-6% unemployment since 1978.In its statement on monetary policy last week, the RBA told financial markets it would be "surprising" if interest rates don't have to be raised again in the current economic cycle, flagging the rising potential for a wages-led inflation breakout
reuters.

Ldn Viewer 05:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
From censored -Adds weight to theory

Economists have revised down Q3 and Q4 growth f/c to annualized 3.8% and 4...

Economists have revised down Q3 and Q4 growth f/c to annualized 3.8% and 4.1% from 4.4% and 4.2%, according to WSJ (Aug 13 edition). Fed does not admit house prices are in the bubble, as Greenspan denied such phenomenon a year ago. Greenspan of course knows house prices keep rising despite deteriorating income and employment, but he has to stick to his old words. One key point will be employment situations, since maintenance of income and employment will conceal the problems of housing loans due to rising house prices from the market. US's balance sheet problems have not been solved at all since Greenspan switched the IT bubble issue to house bubble issue. US's monetary and fiscal policies are near the speed limit. The only and easiest policy for Bush to adopt is therefore weak Dlr policy to win the election.

Ldn Viewer 04:58 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Another very quiet Asian session .. come on Ldn and NY ..

USD should weaken across the board , the Twin Deficits are back to the fore , event risk is as always USD negative and Interest rates well , Can the US do another hike and risk cutting off the lifeline to US economy at the moment right before an Election .... GL all IMVHO

Brisbane L 04:57 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv Oil rise this morning in Asia to nearly $47 is mainly connected to Venezuela election they are a major oil producer and founding member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Fears of instability here, in addition to worries over supplies from volatile Iraq, helped drive oil prices to a record close Friday.


Calcutta Vikram 04:56 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Very decent chances of 1.25 on Euro in a couple of days. Any dip towards 1.2325 today may be manna from heaven for a Long position. Look at the Bull Flag on the Daily Candles.

Have a great trading week, Friends

Minnesota Mark 04:52 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 04:23 GMT August 16, 2004 -- Plenty of commentary on that wonderful program in the help section.

Ldn 04:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. hedge funds -short-term players waiting to sell around 110.80 after soft U.S. data last week fueled doubts over Fed Greenspan's optimism Tokyo bank dealer reporting

FloridA vv 04:33 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 03:40 GMT August 16, 2004
Yukos May Declare Bankruptcy

And ......??
Who cares? It will just change the name and management which will be more obiding and flexible to the government
But oil export from Russia wil never be decreased, so recent jump in oil price may be connected with the cheap dollar only.

NYC YIPPEE 04:23 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
I am watching an HBO commercial for
4xmade easy and I am sick to my stomach !

What are these guys talking about ??

Brisbane L 03:40 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Yukos May Declare Bankruptcy In The Next Few Days

houston st 03:35 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
crude is making new highs overnight, currently @ $46.85 (+.27), so mind your risk...good trades.

NYC YIPPEE 03:25 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW

Looks like a great risk reward trade selling EURUSD 1.2375 stop 1.2405 and look for 1.2230.

Bangkok bkk 03:16 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY:
Place long order @ 110.50 , Stop @ 110.20 , T/P @ 111.50

Springdale BDH 03:10 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Sold AUD/USD 0.7171

Brisbane L 02:59 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
BNZ view that a 50 bps of tightening needed to slow NZ economy and curb inflation hikes in OCR to 6.5% may not be enough they are saying that 7% cannot be ruled out they say that the NZ economy is running out of control and the potential for an inflationary spike is looming large.
BNZ reprt

Minnesota Mark 02:12 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
LOL--- MiniJay?? ROFL

Springdallah Ronk 02:08 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi there
this is just a test for me
as I am new to this
did well on friday Eur/Usd 100 point gain
thanks to this forum

Spotforex NY 01:59 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 23:13

LOL

Not a science for me....but a lab experiment gone bad in my case......

The storm charley passed thur NY last night and it enabled me to recharge my trading robot...mini jay.

NYC PCM 01:52 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC TS - thanks.

Gen dk 01:48 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 01:31 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : My current expected trading range in Asian Session is 397.1 - 400.3.

NYC TS 01:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 00:57 GMT August 16, 2004

The TIC data will be released Mon Aug 16 at 9am NY time.

Singapore Sfx 01:01 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM ... Check the stuff on this site.

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/using-tic.html

NYC PCM 00:57 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Hey anybody know what time to tomorrow we get the US foreign investment inflows for the month?

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:51 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Looking for levels to sell AUD/USD, too hard to sell last Friday at 0.7070 so think its getting a tad overbought up here.. should top 0.7195-05 for pullback to 0.7150 ish

Dallas GEP 00:45 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Limited out usd/cad longs @ 1.3110

Dallas GEP 00:42 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Limited out on GBP/jpy shorts

Beijing Laowen 00:17 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 00:14 GMT August 16, 2004 //

Sorry,mate. I seldom trade Gbp/Usd. Technically it is consolidating with a bias of downwards. Ask VA Raven for GBP/USD, who is expert on this pair.

Beijing Laowen 00:15 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd, bullish, but needs consolidation. Placed an order to buy @1.2336.

LA fxnew 00:14 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
laowen:
you trade gbp/usd?

Beijing Laowen 00:13 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
Aud/USd, bullish. Place an order to buy @0.7153.

Ldn 00:00 GMT August 16, 2004 Reply   
A major shift of U.S. troops with the withdrawal of about 70,000 from Europe, Asia, following a long debate within Pentagon over how to reposition troops to combat new threats, reflect end of Cold War. With more than 100,000 troops in Asia/Pacific and have already taken large slice of forces from Korea FWIW food for thought here !!

 




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