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Forex Forum Archive for 08/19/2004

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Spr Noods 23:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
the joys of nosey parents!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/MyDailyOrders.htm
Just Updated

houston st 23:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP -- was long this pair myself this afternoon, but took what the mkt would give me and cashed out...it's a cointoss from current level...good trades.

Dallas GEP 23:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ST, great post. I would consider tho that usd/cad support @ 1.2957 will be tested BUT my opinion is that 1.2950/55 level is far more than minor support. We will see of course.

Ltn th 23:53 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Noods// Was at a conference at Cradle Mountain a little while back. I met a very beautiful lady and her husband who told me all about her brilliant daughter who was a star in the Sing fx scene. Cant be too many?

houston st 23:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
*DJ METI: Apr-June Tertiary Indus Activity Up 1.6% On Qtr(DJ)

houston st 23:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
*DJ Japan METI: June All Indus Activity Up 0.6% On Month(DJ)

Brisbane L 23:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Spr Noods imagine BC is having a little chuckle to himself
as he says "anything under 70 is money in the Bank"

Spr Noods 23:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
U r a star AB!

Paris Opera House Phanton 23:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
They call the software Ghost Pips because your money disappears into the spirit world.

houston st 23:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
from MNI:
The commodity bloc made strong gains. The USD/CAD was one of them, thrusted lower to take out option defence and tripping stoploss at 1.3000, to register a low print of 1.2957 in the NYK mkt. US data was soft, leading indicators fell 0.3% vs f/c of +0.1%, Philly Fed mfg survey also fell to 28.5 vs f/c of 34.5. US names were prime sellers for this moves, looking for more weakness down the road as the local fundamentals remained growth (trade surplus released last Friday, rose to CAD 8.6 bln). Minor support now lies at 1.2957 while 1.3009 offers chart resistance.

hk ab 23:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Noody, I smack the yen 109.10, seeing higher oil will kill the Nikkei gains yesterday.

maybe I should be satisfied with 109.50.

Spr Noods 23:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
u cant blame the Japanese for liking Aussie!

Ltn th 23:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps we could start a reality TV show about fx trading with GEP as the star? I made the same mistake and had strange visions.
Thanks for the comments and GEP's reminder about CAD, although eur to aud non-corellation is not that unusual in some situations.
I'm starting to think even-stevens for retracement on monday if today quiet. Odds for today seem to favor long.

houston st 23:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   

Dallas DD 23:23 GMT -- I hear Ghost PIPS is pretty spooky...gl/gt..
:)

Brisbane L 23:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas DD for a minute there thought you were GEP.

Brisbane L 23:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Also Lack of strength in the Euro doesnt help it hardly moved overnight

Dallas GEP 23:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Well usd/cad longs from 1.2965 have not done alot. Seems we have had some consolidation tho and my expectations are for a 1.3110 print tonight as long as AUSSIE doesn't go crazy long.

Dallas DD 23:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone heard of a software called Ghost PIPS? It is a software that trades the Forex. A company called MNDS in Dallas is using the software for their trading floor in which forex traders go there and pay to trade using the data from Ghost PIPS. I am thinking about trying it out and just wanted feedback if someone else out there has tried it with success. I think their web site is www.mndsinc.com , but it is only a one page splash without a lot of info.

Brisbane L 23:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th Hi, agree with that however, there's talk of more in the pipeline still, so its a little dangerous to get too bearish just yet would prefer to short above 73 ish for complete safety (say 73.20) but as you say may not get there ,but to short now is tricky - I feel if the Najaf thing is resolve can see Dollar strengthen today but a drag into the weekend will cause a bit more stress . Aussie is not overbought either

Calabash TarHeel 23:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 23:08 GMT August 19, 2004

Your model gave a good call yesterday, just too bad the pullback didn't happen. I was waiting at 7130, it just never pulled back. My thoughts are that if not out of steam yet somewhere between 7285/7335 it will run out of steam and stumble back 80/100 pips. Too early to call yet. Just MVHO.

Good luck, Good trades

Ltn th 23:08 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bris l // Odd. When I posted yesterday I had thought 150 to 200 pip jump(after a 40+ pullback which didnt happen). The odds(just on past behaviour) are 80+% in favor of skippy being plain tuckered out and that we may have already seen the best part of todays range already printed.
My thoughts were based on tech and not fundys. Given specific fundy as you mentioned, what chances of a repeat of last september's sort of behaviour?

Brisbane L 22:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Seems that uridashi bond issuance behind Aud surge overnight talk that Rentenbank and CBA issued more than A$1.2 billion Gold Coast Martin seems the Japanese are still thirsty for Australia .

Va Raven 22:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
NH, sorry to hear that, but right decision to get out, since most likely another 150 pips to go......Cheers!

brisbane L 21:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Seems Aud surprised a few overnight !!

Gibraltar PW 21:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Van Revdax
Re...//Is US$ going to explode (up)
I think that it cud easily do so. I'm watching to see if 1.8360/1.8400 area to caps cable. 1.8360 = 61.8 of 1.8465/1.8195. If it was to be capped in this area , I estimated that from an EW perspective that 1.7970/10 is the target zone before any significant bounce.
Wait n see i suppose.
Gd luck.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown*75 20:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
test.....

wisconsin tim 19:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
closing all EUR shorts

EUR/GBP -1
EUR/USD -8

only open order buy EUR/USD @ 2091

see ya'll tonight

Surabaya Medallion 19:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
WTF with this crazy oil market today from 46.5 to 48.5? This is just hindering my target point of 108.8. :)

wisconsin tim 18:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
TP around 1.2310 probably but it's open right now and will see what happens.

Gen dk 18:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ina co'z 18:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 18:20 GMT August 19, 2004

wheres your TP ? TIA..

wisconsin tim 18:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
selling EUR/USD here with SAR at > 1.2391

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 18:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 17:54 GMT August 19, 2004
my reason about that is from my TA system.

Van Revdax 18:12 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Today's Special Question//Is US$ going to explode (up)while I am on holiday in the beautiful province of British Columbia in Canada?

What do *you* think?

Wien GD 17:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden thx ... already closed 2/3 of my positions. Hope for some retracement ... target 109.30.109.50??? ... but expect JPY to extend the gains ... repatriation etc.

chester wb 17:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
looking for jpy to touch 108.85

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 17:45 GMT August 19, 2004
I promise you sir/madam.
see you later ladies and gentlemen.
let's see my new scenario for tomorrow...:-)

CA Clouy 17:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:51 GMT August 19
Raden, hourly MACD is still in downtrend, stoch is down, too. The pivotal 109.15 has been breached and 109.00 is ahead. May i plz know the reason u long usd/jpy at current level? TIA. GL & GT.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 17:45 GMT August 19, 2004
wow.. very good, but in my mind I want to suggest you to cut switch here your profit.LOL. Now is the danger level.

hk ab 17:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bkk//so far your strategy are perfect! GT.

Wien GD 17:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas: just for fun ... JPY will break 109 today!
btw. usdjpy short since ... and (posted) since 110.4

hk ab 17:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
btw// saw some small fish short dlr/cad. but I want to evaluate for a while first.

hk ab 17:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
jf// tomorrow eur close is v. detrimental.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 17:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hello... before I go home..
who want to buy usd/jpy now? have get 109.09 as the low.
this level is the key long term level !!!! I thinking about 113.44 from here.

hk ab 17:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
take one at 109.10.

hk ab 17:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
small limit 109.05.

NYC PCM 17:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

I see we have trade and Balance of Payments for Euro zone tomorrow.

That might be enough to push it up through resistance for a final new high before turning to trend down.

so if anybody else is thinking "short" ......................better be careful of this.

hk ab 17:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
BB// I think for a v. short term trade, long here with s/l under 109 is still ok till tomorrow london.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I think a potential trap looming is to start thinking usd/jpy has to be at bargain levels here given it was at 112 last week for medium term traders. More downside ahead IMO. It might pay to wait for a move back up to go long rather than trying to pick a bottom......what you will lose in pips you will gain in percentages.

Boston mpd004 17:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USA/Biscuit Boy// thank you for that reply. GT

NYC PCM 17:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney almin

On the basis that the trend line down from February does hold I'm looking for a short target of around 1.1275 and possibly a lot lower.

The next big nest of cyclical lows is due November 12th - so that would be the time target.

As mentioned in earlier post there's still a window of 2 or 3 days for this to make another high first, but the probability is diminishing.

Bangkok bkk 16:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 16:55 GMT August 19, 2004
LA fxnew 16:20 GMT August 19, 2004

Target "Open"

I mean until Monday next week, of course.

Coventry Ledge 16:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
we need the euro to make a proper break of 1.2350 for a run at figure

Bangkok bkk 16:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 16:20 GMT August 19, 2004

Target "Open"

Barcelona Tony 16:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GEP U AROUND????

USA Biscuit Boy 16:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Boston I feel aussie has more room to the upside. My bias is bullish above 0.7130. Next price to buy around 0.72....target 74/75 cents in coming weeks.

paris jb 16:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 16:33 GMT

yes mate , the only pb is evry moment in the market is unique so never know if 2morrow it will repeat itself, if geopolitical situation is bad ,likely trader will sell $ ahead of weekend GL GT ,,

sar jf 16:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
fwiw -dont get bullish eur at the top - lower high today than yesterday and alot of buying was done today - if any unwinding occurs downside will see s/l - good thing is you can clearly see where you are wrong - long posns dont have quite that luxury - imo gl/gt

Sydney Alimin 16:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 16:34 GMT August 19, 2004

what's your immediate target for euro short and what sort of time frame are you looking to achieve the target?TIA

Le Havre Alphonse Brown*55 16:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sterling: stop at 1.8290

NYC PCM 16:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD
Cyclically there was an outside chance we break the multi-day consolidation to the upside on the basis of a "right translated" 144 day cycle. However time is running out on that option and seemingly we've just failed in yet another attempt to do that.

I'd say the bearish case that the trendline down from the February all time high will hold has gained further strength after todays action.

Sydney Alimin 16:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow is a positive day for euro? well that's just from the daily trend i saw big up, 3 down, up and up again...

Boston mpd004 16:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone care to give their views on aud/usd? tia GL GT

London e 16:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Google above $100. Sold 50 at $101.31 for a joke!

GVI john 16:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:09 GMT August 19, 2004
This is the copy view that not from me.

I have erased the posts that I saw and deactivated the offending poster.
GVI- John

Chicago goofy 16:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I insist the long JPY direction, but I suspect his mentality.

Livingston nh 16:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
lLdn 20:28 GMT August 18, 2004 - nice post - got my head handed to me

Raven - out of CAD - nothing good to be said

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Aus...should this go Up?

LA fxnew 16:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bangkok:

where is your target on gbp/usd?

Thanks

Chicago Irish 16:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
This Raden/Not Raden thing has happened before ,someone in your office Raden?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
good bye my friends !!! see you next time !!

NYC PCM 16:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
well Philly Fed didn't help at all.

Still short EUR/USD, but bored

europe m 16:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OK...here we go... last trade of the week and month... long usdjpy at 109,28.... SL 108,80 TP prefer 110.

Chicago goofy 16:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
u r kiding on you own, pal?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 15:47 GMT August 19, 2004
I have answered your question my friend just now. LOL

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 15:47 GMT August 19, 2004
I have answer you question my friend. LOL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas,Finland,Jim...is it working?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
This is the copy view that not from me.
"Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:44 GMT August 19, 2004
If You did not sell usd yen yet, sell now, 109.32 for slide to 108.30.
Act now!!!"
Mr. jay.. please check !!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 16:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I am so sad now because there is some one give view and use my ID. why????
To someone who use my ID :
you want to make lost view(not objective view) to everyone here? for what?. you must know I am only pure little analyst, especially in TA. I am not trader who have no good mentality for that., so don't worry with my unobjective opinion in my view. wrong or not is number two because I have given risk management in my view.the important view maker is must objective in his/her opinion in making view (no bias).
To all my friends here...
If you wnat to know my objective view..please check my scenario in archieve everyday (I hope yview can guide you to make decision).
caused by this...I hope mr. Jay can do something to protect.where is Mr. Jay???? you have known this case?. thanks for Mr. Jay respone.

wisconsin tim 16:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks I hope so

buying eur/usd above 2391 selling below 2303

eur lg 16:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Philli Components
employment 17.2 vs 24.6
prices paid 53.7 vs 46.3
new orders 19.2 vs 35.3
business conditions 52.7 vs 36.3

Very mixed from my perspective

Sydney Alimin 16:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
blah is this it? euro is still not moving...calling the day soon

NYC PCM 16:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
guess Philly Fed # was kind of ok.

Bangkok bkk 16:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 16:00 GMT August 19, 2004

Me too, 1.8305 filled....... :)

Bangkok bkk 16:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 15:58 GMT August 19, 2004

That 's a very great idea.
I will try to take short eur/gbp @ 0.6756(if see) , Tight S/L around 0.6776

GENEVA FHR 16:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Philli Fed 28.5

hk ab 16:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bought one more gbp 1.8305.

hk ab 16:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
number?

usa 15:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sold eur/chf and usd/chf at current levels

hk ab 15:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
the closer the election, the easier for us to see some "artificial" news....

wisconsin tim 15:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sold EUR/GBP .6753 stops around .6800

Bangkok bkk 15:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:52 GMT August 19, 2004

Yes, I agree (for this week) BUT NOT next week.

Gen dk 15:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bris TW 15:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Google opens 100.01 anyone buying? not me heh

hk ab 15:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bkk// doesn't look like the mkt is too tilted one side?

Le Havre Alphonse Brown 15:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sterling : buy order at 1.8305

melbourne 15:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Index - Daily close under 87.50 should bring the euro traders off the beach..

Bruxville Jim 15:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Might sell after 109/112 DNT taken out...

Chicago Irish 15:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OK Raden and your stop for Usd/Jpy?

hk ab 15:42 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp is relatively cheaper.

Calabash TarHeel 15:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Well I'm out of here for a few hours, off to the beach. Wish all a good, lucky and profitable day

Take Care
TH

London e 15:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e 15:09 GMT August 19, 2004
Sold GBP/USD at 1.8340. //
Taken profit now.

NYC PCM 15:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Oh boy.....I guess the only thing that's going to get this thing trending any place is some news. Let's hope Philly FEd jolts things up a bit.

Wonderland Alice 15:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas

Citibank is looking for a prop dealer. You would fit right in.

Bangkok bkk 15:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: The small correction to 1.8285/305 may be the last chance to ride in to the North......IMHO of course.

1.8500++ is coming..........If you were waiting for the opportune moment, that, was it.

sarasota jf 15:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
raden think u skipped the month that gbp fell to the lows

nyc jk 15:29 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ahh demo trades. yes in the real world no one averages those returns over a long time, they blow up before a short time can turn into a long time. nice calls today though, well done.

Calabash TarHeel 15:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT August 19, 2004
Tarheel, did you get your Eur/JPY short IN earlier???

Gep, no I didn't. Set sell order for 135.60 and went to bed. Did catch gbp/jpy on dip that worked well.
Thanks ML!

Like you love to long the cad, but right now I'm afraid of it.

Good luck to Ya!

Ina co'z 15:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 15:20 GMT August 19, 2004
yes..friend ..we are the same boat...and wish get a lucky...:-)

wisconsin tim 15:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
raden, have you changed your system the calls they seem much better the few weeks?

nyc jk 15:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden - if you average 80% return per quarter, that means if you started with $100,000 , in two years it would be worth $11.02 million. I think you have been smoking too much of the good stuff there , pal.

Bangkok bkk 15:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:21 GMT August 19, 2004

Raden// That's a very good ROI, indeed.

Calabash TarHeel 15:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ina co'z 15:14 GMT August 19, 2004

my aud/usd resistance at 0.7282...imo..gl/gt..

With you here, first small short at .7285 if seen.

gl,gt

Bangkok bkk 15:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:16 GMT

Raden// You mean 80% per month or per year?

Bruxville Jim 15:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden, excuse me for my curiosity, but you started that - is it 80% yearly or monthly?

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, did you get your Eur/JPY short IN earlier???

paris jb 15:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:59 GMT

thank u mate, yes 87 is key support

Bangkok bkk 15:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Adjust long order again to 1.8305

Ina co'z 15:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello Raden...
looks like you good today ?

my aud/usd resistance at 0.7282...imo..gl/gt..

Bangkok bkk 15:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:09 GMT August 19, 2004

Raden Mas// You know what "you 're sooooooo lucky". I am very jealous about your GBP position.

You will see GBP trade above 1.8500 by the end of the week, and get MORE THAN 300 pips profit from the QUEEN.

GL. mate

Roumeli anka 15:12 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas... i thought you dont trade, just analyse

London e 15:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sold GBP/USD at 1.8340.

Bangkok bkk 15:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:05 GMT August 19, 2004

FWIW.... AUD/USD may test 0.7340 by tomorrow NY trading session.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:39 GMT August 19, 2004
np.good
I have open 4 lot buy gbp/usd since 8205 and be taken one at 1.8310, still have 3 in open possie until 1.8366 or 8400.
I want to buy again if touch 8275, but loss the train.

Calabash TarHeel 15:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 15:04 GMT August 19, 2004

Ab, thanks as always.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ok. aud/usd seen will smile when touch 0.7266 after broke 0.7255.

Roumeli anka 15:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom ... eurgbp breaks down, the power is with gbp

Dallas GEP 15:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Well AUS/USD and USD/CAD normally will move in opposite directions This correlation is pretty close.

hk ab 15:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel my 2 cents on kiwi is that watch the fib of .7100 to .5900. GL and Gt.

Bangkok bkk 15:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:57 GMT August 19, 2004

Raden Mas// I don't want to miss the train , so i probably BUY GBP around 1.8290-305 area......
Target = In to the NORTH

hk ab 15:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel. I will be more interesting in jpy at the moment. aud looks bid up. don't struggle with it from my experience.
But my eur/aud recommendation yesterday is still valid.

wisconsin tim 15:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
anyone know where/how I can get EOD data from midnight gmt to close of new york?

TIA

gt's

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 15:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
also aud/usd touched the edge number (0.7255)

Le Havre Alphonse Brown 15:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Short more gbp/usd at 1.8330

Antwerp Tom 15:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
If $/cad is an indicator, then €/$ soon to go up imho

USA Biscuit Boy 14:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Don't have one jb.......dollar index heading towards 87 is what I am betting on. As far as I can tell just random moves between those levels I posted so until one of those is met not worth entering for me.

Calabash TarHeel 14:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:47 GMT August 19, 2004
Hello Ab. What if anything are you thinking of nzd/$. I sold some at .6715. Also wondering if aud will print 7285 today.

Thanks
Take Care, Good luck

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gold is walking in the edge level..

hk ab 14:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
jf// someone doesn't know the meaning of the words "political forum".....
I am tired with that already, just leave him. GVI will know what to do later.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:39 GMT August 19, 2004
totally agree with you after gbp/usd show me 8332 as the message to get 1.8366 (top-1) and 8400(top extreme).
but I still wait for buy level at arround 1.8275 in this corection wind.

sarasota jf 14:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ab - nthg

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD at 1.2965 LONG.....This however is trading against some STRONG sell candles. BUYING on a level....


sarasota jf 14:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
al sadr hasnt learnt the bin laden approach to leadership obviously

ln 14:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 14:51 GMT. actually 75. they call it inflation...

hk ab 14:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
jf//what do you see on dlr/jpy? tight range? TIA.

Ldn 14:53 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish love it ,but not the circumstances

paris jb 14:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:17 GMT

hi mate what about ur intraday vue?

Chicago Irish 14:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn:Not good for Al-Sadr....he''ll be meeting 72 bearded virgins soon

sarasota jf 14:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ab some stops above 30 to take out in gbp and then eurgbp can start to bottom out and gbp slow down - some gd aud n kiwi orders but with usdcad movement not as much downside right now maybe bit later on - gt

Gen dk 14:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 14:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Najaf Fighting Could Spark Revolution - Al-Sadr Official - Not good

USA Biscuit Boy 14:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Paris jb I think the following is still a good guide:

EUR/USD Above 1.23 bullish bias
1.2180-1.23 neutral
Below 1.2180 bearish bias

So best bets IMO buy eur/usd around 1.23 or sell if 1.2180 is broken on a retracement. I am looking for 1.25/26 in coming weeks. More of a weekly outlook than intraday tho.....ask Raden for that :)

hk ab 14:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
jf// got some cables this afternoon 1.8220...
thought the news-feeding-selling team has been overdone. go long there.
aud short stopped.
holding eur short.
Will exit the eur short and gb long this Fri.

London e 14:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I like this: http://forex-music.port5.com/

Bangkok bkk 14:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:34 GMT August 19, 2004

Take Profit order should be "OPEN" until Monday next week.

Bangkok bkk 14:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:34 GMT August 19, 2004

Yes, I agree Raden Mas. That 's why I put my long order @ 1.8290 (have 15pips to spare), Stop loss should be consider just below 1.8245

Sydney Alimin 14:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
now if only euro can move its heavy, lazy bump as well zzzZZZzzz

paris jb 14:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:17 GMT

hi mate , what about ur intraday vue?

Sydney Alimin 14:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nice cable rally

Belgrade Knez 14:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   

Bangkok bkk 14:30 GMT August 19, 2004

Thanks.

GL & GT

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:26 GMT August 19, 2004
I think this up move is not strong,because corection ideally come soon . I thinking about 1.8275 as the corection target before go to 1.8409 as the top.

NYC PCM 14:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Bulls not letting go here it would seem.

However this move back up is looking to generate big time bearsih divergences on all my charts if we get back to HOD, implying that a break would be hard and quite probably fail.

Bangkok bkk 14:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:32 GMT

You 're welcome, Raden Mas

Bangkok bkk 14:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Adjust long order to 1.8290

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:26 GMT August 19, 2004
ok. I will thinking buy scenario to get 1.8409 when 1.8330 (bid) show me.
thanks for this share opinion.

Bruxville Jim 14:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
BBoy, thank you...

Bangkok bkk 14:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 14:28 GMT August 19, 2004

The Asian Sharks back from holiday early than I thought. You will see their power soon....very soon.

Bangkok bkk 14:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:26 GMT August 19, 2004

I mean tomorrow(Friday August 20,2004)

Belgrade Knez 14:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 14:26 GMT August 19, 2004

Is that cable view for today NY session, or until end of tomorrow's one?
Thank you

USA Biscuit Boy 14:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jim the fences have been put up, the paintbrushes have been put away and the site will be updated this weekend mate!

Bangkok bkk 14:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:20 GMT August 19, 2004

FWIW......
Believe it or not, but we will see GBP/USD break above 1.8465 resistance during NY morning trading session .(The power of Big Shark can not be undone)

GL. Raden Mas

Tallinn viies 14:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom euro is tied. need rest. correction down to 1,2230 minimum I expect to see

Sydney Alimin 14:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 14:17 GMT August 19, 2004

you don't update your site anymore?

Tallinn viies 14:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:16 GMT - no Im not. from monday till yesterday I played long side. it didnt move.

now I can see vivid images in my head how they gonna sell it down very very soon :9

paris jb 14:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW cable hold above 183 could target 18350

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 14:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd have done at 8315 and get selling attack.
see my scenario railway today in archieve!!

Bangkok bkk 14:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Placed order Long again @ 1.8285

USA Biscuit Boy 14:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
It looks to me the market has found a nice equilibrium at these levels for the moment. Upside and downside risks for the dollar almost evenly weighted with downside risks perhaps slightly higher at the moment (growing current account deficit, softish data, as always Iraq, possible terrorist attack leading up to the election vs. Greenspan's optimistic medium term economic outlook, probable future rate hikes at measured pace, resiliant stock market and private sector willing to purchase bonds where BOJ left off) so we should see the dollar slowly fall against the majors in coming weeks until stronger than expected US data returns, and then it might be time to head back to the other side of the range IMO. GL and GT's.

Bruxville Jim 14:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
viies, sorry, but can't imagine you saying 'upside' instead of 'downside'... I guess that's called a BIAS... Man, you're one-way biased:)

God bless Baltics.

Antwerp Tom 14:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello Viies, why do you think downside? GL GT

paris jb 14:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
FWIW cable next key resistance 18350,

Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
we have been in the very tight range today.
need to expand it soon.
probably donside gives away soon.
imho

Le Havre Alphonse Brown*30 14:12 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
close sterling at 1.8295 , short at 1.83

Sydney Alimin 14:12 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ok, last chance for stubborn euro, philly!
i am tired now...euro doesn't wanna make a move

GVI john 14:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 14:06 GMT August 19, 2004
LEI -0.3%

Bruxville Jim 14:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sydney, it's rather a mere cat'n'dog game...

Sydney Alimin 14:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
any data out just now?

Msc rocket 14:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Eur ag usd looks very bearish to me . Risk tod hi.

Coventry Ledge 14:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e....no trades made on google so far

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 13:44 GMT August 19, 2004
and Sydney
thanks.. just my lucky.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
yes... I got the conclusion gold have touch the top at 408.22.
sell more !!!! sellers wil come !!

Mississauga 13:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I'm here new - hi everybody - good day !!!

Swidnica - I like your comment from yesterday - I'd like to ask you for your opinion for EUR/USD - thak you s much!!!

good trade to everybody

Thank you!!!

GOLD COAST MARTIN 13:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
INDONESIA SOLO RADEN..As quite a heavy trader of the aud i congratulate you on your call so far,,,,where do you think it will finish up short term...g/t

Melbourne Qindex 13:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil (Sep) : It may like to take a rest around 47.80.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 13:42 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
So, any news about Snow? TIA

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 13:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd have done as the top.
see all my scenario in archieve today!

Coventry Ledge 13:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e.....you should get 1.2491, i'm tightening my stops ahead of the filly fed

London e 13:29 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Coventry Ledge,
Yes still holding USD/CHF. I don't have a price target though, but will exit at 2000GMT if still in.

NY Raider19 13:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOOG /// Now Bloomie indicating that IPO's on NASDAQ typically start trading between 1000-1200 ET, w/ expectation of 15 min warning...

Coventry Ledge 13:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e.....you still long the swissie? I went short the € 1.2370 looking for a test of previous lows where i will consider going long around 1.2295ish lower EBB on the 4hr

London e 13:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 13:13 GMT August 19, 2004
Some people place them above or below the last fractals. Others position themselves before with a stop.

London e 13:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 13:13 GMT August 19, 2004
Some people place them above or below the last fractals. Others position themselves before with a stop.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown 13:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sterling reverse at 1.8250

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 13:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
US troops attack As- Sadr site near Baghdad

London e 13:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Coventry Ledge 13:11 GMT August 19, 2004
Thanks. We will see, I won't trade it though, just interested.

paris jb 13:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
cable to test 183 again likely, should break this is the third time

leeds jb 13:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
if you straddle a fx pair waiting for news where do you place buysell orders to avoid being cought in a bull or bear trap? need help guys.

Coventry Ledge 13:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e....sorry buddy if i'm wrong on Google but i heard it on bloomberg that they were

Ldn 13:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Al-Sadr Has Rejected Iraq Govt Truce Ultimatum

Melbourne Qindex 13:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 13:01 GMT - You got mail.

NY Raider19 13:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOOG CFD /// Perhaps it takes some time to set up the CFD, or not. It is scheduled to commence trading on NASDAQ at 0930 ET.

NYC PCM 13:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

have to day I didn't expect the action after I quit yesterday afternoon..............another run back into consolidation range and this morning anoher attempt to break out at the top.

Still holding a swing short so that was a bit nerve wracking this morning.

However the failure to break out bodes well.

So I remain bearish Euro and believe it will break to the downside when if finaly breaks...............

London e 13:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
My CFD broker said Google is not trading today???

NYC PCM 13:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gold

It's been moving up on daily chart in a shallow channel (usually bearish formation). In addition it looks to be going diveergent on MACD as it re-probes highs of the channel.

I think it's going down soon in a continuation of the trend from the high.

CA Clouy 13:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:49 GMT August 19
Dr. Q. the email has been sent. TIA.

Le Havre Alphonse Brown 13:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
long gbp/usd at 1.8265

Bruxville Jim 12:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
today, of course...
Bloomberg TV commentary - expect a spike above 100, but also a probe below 85 afterwards...

CA Clouy 12:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
[US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS] New claims for the week ended August 14 (the payroll survey week) stood at 331k vs a revised 334k in the prior week (was 333k). That took the 4-week average to 337k, the same as in the July survey week. Continuing claims in the week of August 7 stood at 2.904 mln vs 2.888 mln in the prior week. The insured unemployed rate came in at 2.3% for the August 7 week, unchanged from the past 3 weeks. These data suggest no change in the jobless rate in the August release. The 337k 4-week average should point at considerable payroll strength, but that certainly didn"t prove true in July.

Sydney Alimin 12:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
watch out gold is coming back to earth, is it in the process of forming an evening star on 4-hour chart? well if it is, you dont wanna go long...gl gt all

Melbourne Qindex 12:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : I guess we have seen the daily high already.

GER ad 12:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e 12:45,
Yes and after going with 85 in auction we may see prices over 90 today.

Bangkok bkk 12:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Cancel order long @ 1.8260

Coventry Ledge 12:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e.........yes Google are floating today on the NAZ

Bruxville Jim 12:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
E// GOOG trading starts tommorow, I think...

Sydney Alimin 12:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:24 GMT August 19, 2004
see my little view about aud/usd scenario !!!
be carefull when touch 0.7237...top?

so far so good, Raden Mas...good call there

London e 12:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know if Google is going to float today?

nyc jk 12:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
looks like it Alimin, just squared up long EUR...will either buy a break of resistance or a dip lower

ny hh 12:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bought $yen 109.38 stop 108.80 tgt 112 good luck to all

Sydney Alimin 12:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hmm...i think party is still waiting for philly

Global-View GVI 12:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 12:30 GMT August 19, 2004
331K vs. rev 334K, as expected

Bruxville Jim 12:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Previous month was revised up a bit though, fwiw...

Ldn 12:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 331,000 in the week ended Aug. 14

Sydney Alimin 12:35 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gold is going up to heaven :)

Sydney Alimin 12:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
where is the jobless claim?

Nanjing bl 12:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
it hangs up there !

Sydney Alimin 12:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bring them on..i am ready yippie

Spr Noods 12:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
"The data since the FOMC meeting (on Aug. 10) confirms there was a soft patch in June, and a lot of the new data we have got on July suggests that the lull in June probably won't linger," said Loretta Mester, head of research at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and top advisor to President Anthony Santomero.

Santomero will be a voting member on the Fed's interest-rate committee next year.

"It seems it was a lull, as opposed to a change in the underlying economic outlook," Mester said in a telephone interview.

She cited a recovery in retail sales in July and upward revisions for June, improved auto sales and a rebound in housing data and industrial production in July. The last two figures were released on Tuesday and showed industrial production rose 0.4 percent in July, while housing starts jumped the most in nearly two years with an 8.3 percent rise.

Nanjing bl 12:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
are you kidding?

EU ZORRO 12:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello all....!!!!

...everybody ready for 1,2460....?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
see my little view about aud/usd scenario !!!
be carefull when touch 0.7237...top?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 12:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hello.. nice about gbp/usd..have done all.

nyc jk 12:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
risktaker - the story was on Reuters news service so sorry I don't have a web link for it. perhaps you may try on the Reuters website though, or look at the post :
Dublin Flip 10:58 GMT August 19, 2004 - the majority of the story is posted there, cheers.

Sydney Alimin 12:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
i just dont like the look of dollar index, it maybe in the process of forming another big down bar...ok let's see the data...bring them on

London Rich 12:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
from a dealer friend..

Morning,


Lot of stuff going around about Sterling this morning with the currency coming under a lot of pressure particularly against the Euro and Yen. Main sellers have been European banks but judging by the size and quality of names I think we could be in for substantial extra downside on Cable over the next few months.


Key level for Sterling is around the 1.8190/ 1.8200 level initially with size stops seen on triggers of 1.8150. A lot of banks are calling for a substantial sell-off (some as low as 1.7500) over the next few months. Based on the above macros I would tend to agree that we could be in for a decent sell-off over the next few months, especially if the labour market in the US starts to improve.

To take advantage pf this idea I would suggest utilising a currency option play and have found something which I think looks quite interesting. Due to the expected sell-off in sterling, put options (i.e bearish options) are relatively expensive with the 1.8200 at the money put costing around 447 pips. As I think Sterling is likely to trade lower I think a better and cheaper option is to sell a call against it to offset some of the premium cost.

Idea: Buy the December 1.8100 put and sell the December 1.8200 call for a premium package cost of around 96 ticks. (based on spot around 1.8200)

By doing the December it means that the long put will not be subject to time decay for a while and also means that the position could be hedged if necessary with December Sterling futures (delta will be to the put, hence the hedge will be long futures).

Ldn pm 12:19 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
stavanger risktaker 12:07 GMT

Reuters interview with Loretta Mester (head of research at Philly Fed)- on Reuters at 2048GMT yesterday - if that helps

paris jb 12:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
chennai kj 12:05 GMT

yes lets hope so, but US data now will take over thecnical issue, take care

Bruxville Jim 12:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
martin// Gracias por haber venido. !Hasta otro dia!

BRUXVILLE JIM 12:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
MARTIN// CON MUCHO GUSTO!!!

stavanger risktaker 12:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
comments last night from the Philly Fed research head, risk may be for a strong number there,

JK.........,Do U have link to that statement? Most analysts I spoke with are exspecting horrible numbers around 15-25 so U got me pussled there.

chennai kj 12:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
paris jb

hi, looks like the expected bounce from 1.8265 has started..lets hope

GOLD COAST MARTIN 12:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 12:01 GMT August 19, 2004
Vilnius Georgas// Do it baby one more time...

Spacibo bolshoe, Brittany Spears...

Bruxville Jim 12:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Georgas// Do it baby one more time...
Gerai, gerai lietuvishkas braljukas:)

Vilnius georgas 11:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT
yeap , good luck to Ausies

Vilnius georgas 11:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT
yeap , good luck to Ausies

Vilnius georgas 11:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT
yeap , good luck to Ausies

Sydney Alimin 11:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
market has got something for everyone, today maybe a day for usd bears...just maybe...

Spr Noods 11:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Congrats to those on the Aussie Love Boat

Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Aussies look good against US in the basketball

Nanjing bl 11:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
jk, thanks for your comments.

nyc jk 11:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bl - I am biased for the upside in EUR, but I am a bit cautious because we are bumping up near an area that has been resistance and after the comments last night from the Philly Fed research head, risk may be for a strong number there, so just trimming the position back a bit to reflect that. if after all the data today EUR can hold in and break 1.2390, I think it will look very bullish imo.

Sydney Alimin 11:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
wow, nice rally by aud though but i wonder if it has entered the sell zone...hmmm

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 11:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Guys,
Can't chat till next monday....
I am grounded and so is HK AB...
we'll talk soon

ny cc 11:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
JOHANESBURG .....
i will wait any way till the figures and see what happens there may be some turbulence will give me a nice entry... happy hunting evry one

Ldn 11:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin any view on aud from here

Nanjing bl 11:35 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk, do ou think the eur/usd will go down instead of going up for the negative data ?

Sydney Alimin 11:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp looks bullish now, but data could just make it do a U-turn, i'd wait and see

nyc jk 11:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
just closed out half of EUR longs 1.2365 fwiw

Ldn 11:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
snow talking

Snow: US Should Make Tax Cuts Permanent, Pass Energy Law

Ldn 11:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Oil rising near $48 will push gold higher and seems the most negative at present for the Dollar

Problems in Iraq today will keep oil high
Explosion Hits Heavily Fortified Green Zone In Baghdad

Johannesburg Merlin 11:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
New York, maybe just wait a while with those dollar buys against the Yen. My 2 cents.

ny hh 11:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
do u think that the news will give a better entry for dollar bulles? maybe i should wait for 109.05 to 109 20 ...u r right

Nanjing bl 11:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
is it a good time to buy eur/usd, since the the data to be released are mostly negative ? the pair supose to go up for awhile, then retrace. i will put a tight s/l in case i am wrong. any idea ? thanks.

Quebec Swap 11:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ny hh 11:17 GMT

I am leaning towards that view. but I'd rather wait until the news comes out this morning to see where it goes.

ny hh 11:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
the divergence on the hourly and the 2 hours chart in $yen is very strong in my opinion ..i think a major leg up will occur in $yen from here .... any one agrees with me or am i wrong in something?

Quebec Swap 11:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Closed my Gbp/Usd long position.

Belgrad KZ 11:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
The Phily FED!IMO

ny hh 11:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
buying $yen at 109.40 stop 108.90 tgt 111 and above .... any views

Johannesburg Merlin 11:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
..or this Philly Fed Business Index?

Johannesburg Merlin 11:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys, say which figure would be the most important for the forex market today, the jobless claims, or the leading indicators? An hour-and-a-hlaf seperates the two.

Thanks opinions?

Dublin Flip 10:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I kind of think this is worth noting though from GVI last night...

nyc jk 01:08 GMT August 19, 2004
Well call me crazy, but interesting comments for the head of research for the Philly Fed to be making the night before the figure is released??

06:48 19Aug2004 UPDATE 1-Fed official sees pick-up from soft patch By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Recent economic news seems to support the Federal Reserve's view that the soft patch in the U.S. economy in June was temporary, a senior Fed official told Reuters on Wednesday. "The data since the FOMC meeting (on Aug. 10) confirms there was a
soft patch in June, and a lot of the new data we have got on July suggests that the lull in June probably won't linger," said Loretta Mester, head of research at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and top advisor to President Anthony Santomero.
Santomero will be a voting member on the Fed's interest-rate committee next year. "It seems it was a lull, as opposed to a change in the underlying economic outlook," Mester said in a telephone interview. She cited a recovery in retail sales in July and upward revisions for June, improved auto sales and a rebound in housing data and industrial
production in July.

Dublin Flip 10:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
No worries martin,daiymo.
Like I said I have no idea and it's right to be wondering whether an appearance has significance. I just remember the NFP in particular as Haines and co would read out a long list of spokesmen who would be on the show and lo and behold good numbers. It's politics.
On the other hand, Snow did come out BEFORE the last batch of bad numbers and said the usual positive platitudes. I kind of think he's in his own little dreamland myself but it shows how predicting from these guys schedules is pretty iffy.

Ldn 10:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Looks like all the fun over for now

Coventry Ledge 10:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
London e...........I like your long the swissie, I'm also long from .16

Bangkok bkk 10:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Placed order LONG @ 1.8260 , S/L 1.8225 , T/P 1.8340

chennai kj 10:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
paris jb

u are rite...now 65/70 should support for a break above 1.8300

Oakland daimyo 10:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:30 GMT August 19, 2004

Great observation & post. Who knows w/ these guys but the scenario seems plausible. In an era of "West Wing" and others, the propaganda machine is quite busy. I guess that's why it's hard to believe the doom and gloom talk. It has been my experience that the "plunge protection team" has a vested interest and will work hard to maintain the supposed equilibrium (status quo). They think static not dynamic. Gonna take a break until US data.

paris jb 10:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
cable not very energic rejection of 183, a break is likely here wait n c

nyc jk 10:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sure Martin, that's what makes a market!

GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:35 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN FLIP...thanks for trying to cushion the current blow...good trades...

paris jb 10:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp 183 first attempt

Dublin Flip 10:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
It might mean good numbers you never know.
When NFP (and others) were coming out good we had plummages of Admin spokespeople doing the big shmooze (and had been annouced they were appearing the day before). When NFP and GDP came in crap it was tumbleweed time from the administration. If it's bad the best way to downplay it is to not even acknowledge it. If it's good it's a media face time competition.

paris jb 10:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
chennai k.j 10:21 GMT

i have 18350 AND 18373 key resistance but first we should c what 183 will give us,

eur 124 break or failur also whould give a bias for the market

GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 10:24 GMT August 19, 2004
Thanks JK....can we use you as a contra just for today?...lol....good trades...

milan las 10:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:09

First data to be released today at 12.30 gmt

nyc jk 10:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Martin - I believe it is 9.45 am NY time, 13.45 gmt that Snow speaks

chennai k.j 10:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
paris jb,

tku mate...looks like..but donot see scope above 1.8360 for the moment.

Dallas GEP 10:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel , this 135.40/50 may be all you can get at this time as promised!!! LOL

GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn pm 10:18 GMT August 19, 2004
....that is what guy on bloomberg said..may be someone out there knows the correct time...

sarasota jf 10:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp is alot better bid today than eur - some eurgbp correction before next rally to be seen - 6735 then - 6810
gl

Ldn pm 10:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:09 GMT
Is the Snow interview time correct, because the first US data out today is weekly claims at 1230GMT ??

paris jb 10:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hi traders,

chennai k.j 10:01 GMT,

hi mate, cable just reversed to long on hourly chart, this give a chance to break 183 level wich is the confirmation to upside move, make or break 83 level will give a clue,

also US data can change evrything so trade wise, i longed euro at 12351 and gbp at 18251

GL GT

Ldn 10:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Cable Approaches Sell Zone

Oakland daimyo 10:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc daimyo --- I love it--keep it coming. Looks like we have Ronin to deal w/.

Ldn 10:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN
not to worry dollar not on the agenda . he has Bush on his mind and the election talking his book big time or else he is out of a job

Ldn SC 10:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 09:47 / "Patience at this time is required...patience generates money ..."

The BOJ says that too.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 10:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
...Wonder why SNOWhas scheduled himself to appear on bloomberg at 11.45 gmt...straight after the US data...to re-assure market the economy is on track despite the soft figures..food for thought,,,,,g/t

nyc jk 10:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
viies - talking very short term maybe 30-40 pips. I shouldn't have posted as I am not trying to talk anyone out of their position, just saying seems uncanny whenever a few people or more do something at a certain level it usually goes through it in the short term. I first noticed it a couple times when I was one of the few people lol. gl

Tallinn viies 10:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 09:37 GMT - how much other way? 1 tick or 200 ?
right now Im 15 points in red. I went after 150 points by the way

Cairo mdr 10:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
longed euro @ 2350 and looking to reverse @ 2385

chennai k.j 10:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
any view on cable from here..1.8290

nyc daimyo 10:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I hear ya Daimyo, EUR may struggle above 1.2380 for today anyway so may look to lighten up a little soon. think if 1.2390-00 breaks though it may be off to the races. gl

Oakland daimyo 09:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 09:48 GMT August 19, 2004

Thanks. Not trying to fight the flow. Just intraday punting until Oct. Not looking to take any position trades during slow mkt. GT to you.

Melbourne Qindex 09:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
IST Sez 09:49 GMT - bascially my view is the same but do make some ajustment, details in my page.

IST Sez 09:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Mr Qindex,may I ask your wiew has changed on eur/jpy?
İs it valid 134,28 ?
tia

nyc jk 09:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo - not taking a position at this level based on what people are doing, I am just pointing out something I have definitely observed over time on this forum, watch for it yourself in the future. as for my position I am long EUR, I posted this yesterday on the GVI side

nyc jk 16:11 GMT August 18, 2004
Mel, thanks vm. I have also gone long some EUR today, worse level than you, 1.2303. Thinking new highs possible before week out as well.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 09:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Patience at this time is required...patience generates money,,,g/t to all...even the C9s....

London e 09:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF target 1.2483.

Oakland daimyo 09:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I find it interesting how many of you take positions counter to TA or anything other than playing off others. Take a view and trade it. I for one am still in this thing. Maybe out the gate a little to aggressive but have a view and willing to trade it. Scale in/ Scale out. Lets see who has the ammo. Range trade still in focus. I know you guys aren't buying the highs??? Let's see who's C9 GT and GL to everyone.

Melbourne Qindex 09:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT August 19, 2004
EUR/USD : Use the weekly cycle charts for reference if the market is trading below 1.2308.


... 1.2308* // 1.2325 - 1.2341 - 1.2357 // 1.2373* ...

Plovdiv Gotin 09:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
e/Target?

sid (syd) 09:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sing exactly

london 09:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
aud on the charge lads...

couple uridashi issues coming, apparently.

watch the brl this afternoon, and of course the cad.

London e 09:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bought USD/CHF at 1.2412. Stop 15 pips.

Sing 09:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sid 08:48 GMT August 19, 2004
That's how it works. When i post, buy euro.

Ldn 09:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Gold Fixing $406.30

nyc jk 09:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Haifa, I have noticed exactly the same thing on this forum -

nyc jk 13:08 GMT June 3, 2004
.....the other one I have noticed that has a good success rate as well is when 3 or more people enter the same position near the same time, the market usually moves the other way......

Oakland daimyo 09:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:22 GMT August 19, 2004

Point taken. GT

Syd EM 09:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
US Crude Hits USD 47.52 PB On Mixed News From Iraq
probably dollar negative

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 09:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
19.08.2004 (04:17 Czasu Polskiego)

Today`s data:

04:30 GBP – Retail Sales m/m (Jul) prev. 1.1% for. -0.3%

04:30 GBP – M4 Money Supply m/m (Jul) prev. 0.5% for. 0.5%

04:30 GBP – Public Finances (Jul) prev.. 10.6b for.. -6.6b

08:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Aug) prev. 333k for. 335k

10:00 USD – Leading Indicators (Jul) prev.. -0.2% for. -0.2%

12:00 USD – Philadelphia Fed Factory Survey (Aug) prev. 36.1 for.. 30.5

11:00 – 13:00 – USD – Snow speeks

19:50 JPY – Tertiary Industry Index m/m (Jun) prev. -1.0% for. 0.4%

19:50 JPY – All Industry Activity Index m/m (Jun) prev. -0.7% for. 0.0%


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.56) – YESTERDAY WE TESTED 109.10/45 REGION. NOW WE EXPECT BOUNCE TOWARDS 110.00 MAYBE 110.40 AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE FALL BELOW 109.00.

EURUSD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2141) - STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.2395. EUR IS STILL BELOW THIS REGION. IN OUR OPINION TODAY WE COULD TEST AGAIN 1.2280 OR EVEN 1.2260 REGION. AFTER THIS BULLS SHOULD AGAIN ATTACK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2345) - STRONG RESISTANCE 1.2505/15, SUPPORT AT 1.2370. CHF SHOULD BE STRONGER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8212) - SUPPORT 1.8130/50, RESISTANCE 1.8300/20.

IST Sez 09:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
to MR.Qindex

IST Sez 09:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone !
.
Mt Qindex,may I ask your wiew has changed on eur/jpy?
İs it valid 134,28 ?
tia

eur lg 09:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts
EUR/USD
Slight downward bias to the usd. But I have to ask whats holding the eur back from going higher ?
- Fear of Greenspan.
- Lack of trust in the data specifically payroll numbers. While the traditional survey shows weakness, the less followed household survey or even less followed jolt number do not show anywheres near the weakness of the traditional number.
- Barrier play.
Thus hesitation.

EUR/JPY
Despite yesterdays price action think its a buy around 135.00. As long as oil is not coming down, and to the extent that the Japanese authorities want to manage their currency the yen should weaken.

EUR/GBP
Pretty much got this one wrong, but will stay in denial for a while longer hoping that sooner or later the overbought technicals will correct.

Haifa ac 09:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 09:07 GMT // I don't talk my book. But I have noticed that when the room tilts one way-I should be careful it works about 70% of the time! I have been scorched a few times when ignoring this!

Ldn 09:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
An Iraqi Cabinet minister said Thursday that Iraqi forces could begin an offensive against Muqtada al-Sadr within hours

Ldn 09:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Iraq Oil Infrastructure "Systematically Targeted" - Min

Cliff Lemming 09:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
just sold EUR/USD at 1.2350, everyone is doing it!

LJ rookie 09:14 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Can someone tell me pls who is/are C9?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp still have space until 0.6798 before down.
impact to eur/usd down and gbp/usd up

Roumeli anka 09:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I have a note on my screen from yesterday: usdcad market is long and wrong. I will add a second today: C9’s sell euro at market.

Ldn 09:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Attackers Kill Iraq N Oil Co Security Officer - Police

Kiev uhf 09:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Pls anyone: 3 month USD LIBOR + 750 basic points - what's the current rate ? TIA...

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:08 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
malang Kyai Profit !!!
met kenal !!
dari kantor deket museum (belakang museum?).
mean is just say hello.

Oakland daimyo 09:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ac-- you think??? Time will tell. Speak up. Which way for you? or are you just watching the show?

Ldn 09:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Market talk is that USD on defensive as investors eye the session's US jobless claims and Philly Fed mfg survey for further signs of economic weakness

Gen dk 09:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Haifa ac 09:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OOOPS, too many euro sellers here all of a sudden!

Melbourne Qindex 08:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Oakland daimyo 08:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 60 min 1.2351 Fractal Top holding ground + -. 4HR 1.2366 Fractal Top should contain all. Stops over this area recommended for sellers. 51 is the current "hinge" Add more on failure of this level. GL! Range strats remain in focus. Higher probability trade.

saloniko 2004 nk 08:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ab,

humans...

A fair promice is always in our mind..

nk

sid 08:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Sing does that mean its a buy ?

Ldn 08:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Iraq Govt Gives Al-Sadr Hours To OK Ceasefire Terms- BBC

Sing 08:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
C-9's selling euro at market

saloniko 2004 nk 08:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning...

GBP/J and $/J still not look so nice...

So this 2may press E/J lower..
This in my opinion will slow down the Euro up move..

That mean we have to take a look first gbp/j and usd/j b4 take a position shorting Euro

Have a nice day!
GL all!
nk

Roumeli anka 08:42 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. The move of spot gold doesnt support any $ retracement at the moment.

europe M 08:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
already seeing take profits from eurgbp longs.... on back of UK retail data.. as at least some liqudity puring in....
we could see those long liqudations to put more pressure on eurgbp pushing it bellow 0,6770.

Tallinn viies 08:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
good to΄know :)
we have lower highs and lower lows. should work I hope.
of course it may be flag and break upside as sometimes happens but as long as weekly high untouched Im on the board.

hk ab 08:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
too bad can't keep promise myself, nk..
anyway, nice dinner waiting for me tonight see ya NY.

Last Night Chinese accounts mighty is respected..

hk ab 08:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
viies//shorted eur 1.2355, aud .7170 here.
but I have a long gbp 1.8220 (some confidence)...

Sydn 08:35 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
UK July Retail Sales -0.4% On Mo; +6.6% On Yr

Oakland daimyo 08:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Viies-- I'm right behind you. 2 sets in @ 1.2352 & 1.2350 looking to offer more under fig. Test of 1.2282 in sights.

Kamensk Andy 08:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Olimpic Pingu

http://yeti3.yetisports.org/_ylympics/

GL

Bangkok bkk 08:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 08:27 GMT August 19, 2004
bkk//changed your bias?btw, is your old email still valid?
---------------------------------------------------

No, ab. I just booked some profits and will long EUR/USD and short USD/CHF again tomorrow.

My e-mail still valid. You can contact me anytime.

GL.

Tallinn viies 08:29 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
as I said yesterday close under 1,2360 very bearish.

Sold euros at 1,5354. more to sell at 1,2379.
target 1,2130. minimum 1,2285/90
stop over weekly high.
fwiw

hk ab 08:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bkk//changed your bias?btw, is your old email still valid?

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 08:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
please check my scenario of gbp/usd.!!

Bangkok bkk 08:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Exited long @ 1.2345 (booked 45 pips profit)
USD/CHF: Exited short @ 1.2445 (booked 55 pips CHF profit)

PAR 08:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Expect strong rise in UK retail sales instead of announced decline. UK forecasts are always biased to the downside. Looking for + O.9 m/m .

Haifa ac 08:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I knew her too!

LAS 08:19 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I had a girlfriend like that once sydney :)

Sydney Alimin 08:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
euro is one tough customer, doesnt wanna go up and doesnt wanna go down

Ldn 08:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Chief economist Norbert Walter at Deutsche Bank Group Walter - Global economic expansion will continue to gather ground this year, led by robust growth in the U.S. and China, but the outlook for next year is clouded by higher oil prices and large external imbalances in the U.S. China will remain the main engine of growth in Asia, with investments and domestic demand likely to sustain its steady growth into 2008 - the year it hosts the Olympics.
For Europe, Walter said, the world economy has achieved enough momentum to start pulling the region out of its anemic expansion. He said that while euro-zone exports remain buoyant, economic recovery in this year and in 2005 will accelerate only if domestic demand finally steps up.
reuters news.

malang kyai profit 08:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
i have short gbp/usd last night @ 1.8245 and i still believe gbp/usd will fall to 1.8180/1.8150 today.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 08:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view
gold
be made when at 404.35
Level sell : Level Buy :
405.30 stop loss 406.50 397.50 stop loss 394.50
405.20 stop loss 403.50
railway scenario :
Like my view before about number 405.30 will get selling attack and now have been done.Now 405.30 seen difficult to pass with easy to show me 406.50. High possibility price will move down to get 397.25 or 395.20 before wake up with shoot distance until 418.60.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view
usd/chf be made when at 1.2456
Level Sell : Level buy :
1.2643 stop loss 1.2660 (minor) 1.2434 stop loss 1.2420
1.2535 stop loss 1.2550 (major) 1.2425 stop loss 1.2380
1.2603 stop loss 1.2625 (major) 1.2237 stop loss 1.2200
railway scenario:
Like my view for yesterday that psrice get oscilation from 1.2416 to 1.2503 and have been done and show me 1.2512 as the key information about number 1.2535. If today price move down to get 1.2434, high possibility will move up from there to get 1.2535 as the top . For middle term have been clear information about number 1.2603 adn high possibility selling attack will come in big scale and emotional.

hk ab 07:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
also like to long gbp 1.8220.

hk ab 07:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Just don't want to let some one say it's a hinsight.
short eur 1.2355 filled, short aud .7170 done, s/l placed and talk on Fri.

LAS 07:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks to all that replied... still kinda upset at censored at taking there guarentee prices on all entry, stop and limit since i loved to trade the news but i guess filling everyone at there price bit them too hard over the last couple of weeks seeing how the markets gapped. easy ride is over and need to get back to real trading again. Again thanks for all advice :)

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view
usd/jpy when at 109.56
Level Sell : Level Buy :
110.89 stop loss 111.35 (major) 109.22 stop loss 108.70 (major)
111.23 stop loss 111.35 (major) 109.09 stop loss 108.70 (major)
113.44 stop loss 113.65 (major)
railway scenario :
Like my view several days ago about number 109.37 is the target and have be get now and have given buying reaction from there. The pattern for now is price give high possibility still make new low at 109.22 or 109.09 as the extreme low. That band is ideal bottom before go to 113.44 as the top extreme for long term scenario. Now price give possibility move up to get 110.89 before go down .

london 07:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
watch usd/brl....breaking down.....brl an under watched lead indicator sometimes.

london 07:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
solo..

aud is 70 bid now.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view
aud/usd when at 0.7148
Level sell : Level Buy :
0.7237 stop loss 0.7265 (minor) 0.7125 stop loss 0.7100 (major)
0.7248 stop loss 0.7265 (major) 0.7088 stop loss 0.7065 (major)
0.7276 stop loss 0.7290 (major)
0.7340 stop loss 0.7360 (major)
0.7157 stop loss 0.7200 (minor)

railway scenario :
Like my view before(yesterday) from level 0.7130 price got buying reaction and when at 0.7163 will get selling attack. Now give me information that oscilation until 0.7125 -21 become objective for today and if that band be broken, chart will show you 0.7088 as the extreme bottom for major scenario. But since touch 0.7130 for yesterday actually have been ideal level to move up again for target 0.7237-55 (minor) and objective target at 0.7266. For now pattern of getting 0.7248 as the top have been moved to 0.7276 as the major top. Major scenario to get 0.7340 as the extreme top have been clear actually.

London e 07:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bought GBP/USD at 1.8215. Stop 1.82.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view
eur/usd when at 1.2338
Level sell : Level Buy :
1.2409 stop loss 1.2430 (major) 1.2282 stop loss 1.2160 (major)
1.2612 stop loss 1.2640 (major) 1.2242 stop loss 1.2200 (major)
1.2499 stop loss 1.2520 (major) 1.2265 stop loss 1.2200 (major)
1.2344 stop loss 1.2375 (minor)

railway scenario :
Finally 1.2282 have be touched and have given buying reaction from there until arround 1.2344. The key level for today is 1.2369 as the confirmation to get 1.2409 - 1.2416 as the danger band (possible as the top) if 1.2369 be broken and never break 1.2282 before. Now chat pattren still not yet give clear information for up except 1.2369 be broken. Price still on stay arround resistant level at 1.2344 and give potential move down from that level to catch new low at 1.2242, but when at 1.2282 be predicted will get buying attack to move down with easy.

Ldn 07:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
The greenback has weathered a squall of negative news recently, but it could still turn out to be the perfect storm for dollar bears.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that the recent slowdown in U.S. economic activity, combined with a widening trade gap, heralds renewed dollar weakness.

The U.S. unit may need to depreciate another 31% in trade-weighted terms, they estimate, to place the external U.S. current account balance on a sustainable path.

This raises the possibility that the bank's six-month forecasts - the euro at $1.32 and the dollar at Y98 - may be reached before the year's end.

"The dollar is more likely to go down than up" said Mark Austin, global head of FX strategy at HSBC, as its cyclical support is receding. With U.S. data continuing to disappoint, the Federal Reserve will either have to lose a bit of credibility and revise down its optimistic view of the economy, or imply that interest rates will go up more slowly than originally expected, he adds. HSBC forecasts

Ldn 07:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
S Africa rand seen strengthening after offshore banks went too long dollars, traders dwith the rand's following the euro stronger over the past day or so and looks to be heading to the ZAR6.35-40/USD area reuters..

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 07:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
my little view :
gbp/usd when at 1.8236
Level sell : Level buy :
1.8297 stop loss 1.8330 1.8192 stop loss 1.8145 (major)
1.8315 stop loss 1.8330 1.8165 stop loss 1.8145 (major)
1.8322 stop loss 1.8330 1.8075 stop loss 1.8055 (major)
1.8366 stop loss 1.8375
1.8400 stop loss 1.8430
railway scenario :
Oscilation to get 1.8075 still attack for middle term as bottom oscilation to get 1.8491 from there. level 1.8221 have be get and have given buying reaction. Up move pattern seen still not too clear caused by resistant 1.8252. If today move down early at 1.8192, that's mean high possibility buying reaction will comeand dominant, but if move up early and get 1.8297 or 1.8315 or 1.8321 selling attack will come from that levels. But if show you 1.8330 up move oscilation to 1.8366 can be hope as the extreme top.

houston ken 07:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
aussie run is it for real or good to short at the top anybody?

Bris th 07:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex .....Top advice Dr Q

Melbourne Qindex 07:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Oakland daimyo 07:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Also try plotting weekly pivots on the 4 hr or 1 hr chart. This will help you focus on the bigger picture. Be patient and do not trade between pivots. Prices will either oblige you or not. Some entries are missed simply because the move started before your level. NP, you win some you lose some. I can deal with an unfilled order better than I can deal with a poor entry as a result of a chased trade.

Melbourne Qindex 07:08 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 06:50 GMT - Don't try to watch the monitor. In most of the time the market movement has a nature of random walk. So set up your trade, place a stop and go away.

Oakland daimyo 07:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 06:50 GMT August 19, 2004
the more times you run across the freeway, the higher the chance of getting hit. Pick and choose your battles, many aren't worth fighting. You don't need to trade everyday or every pivot to be successful. Wait for pullbacks, retracements, etc. Do not sell below pivot or buy above pivot unless you have strong evidence of trendline break or some other price pattern. Remember price action is the mother of all indicators and range trade during slow summer months is the name of the game. GL & GT

Melbourne Qindex 07:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LAS 06:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
one of my problems is there are too many pivot points... i shorted gbp/usd at 11:20 pst at a price of 1.8237.. would of liked it at 1.8240 but oh well i am in... now price did go in my favor but now we at the next one.. will it bounce or keep falling?? that is the question that runs through my mind a million times and it gets me out of the trade to later see it break or i stay in and see it bouce and now back to a break even trade...

MONACO OGA 06:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 19/08
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2340), 20 pips lower than yesterday opening. The USD recovered against majors excepted JPY yesterday printing 1,2283 in the US session before retracing to current levels at NY close. The market is directionless and consolidates inside 1,2280-1,2380. Overnight, the pair hovered inside 15 pips range. Our intraday strategy remains the same as yesterday: EUR's rally seems to be exhausting ahead of last month's 1,2460 resistance and we'll be looking to sell ahead of 1,2400 for 1,2310 and 1,2280 targets. Our range trading strategy since last spring is still valid for the time being, with a 1,1950-1,2525 range.

Data out today:

GER PPI M/M 0,6 against 0,2 expected 08.00 GMT
UK M4 July expected 0,7 08.30 GMT
UK retail sales M/M July expected -0,4 08.30 GMT
UK PSNCR public finances July expected -8,2 Bio 08.30 GMT
US initial claims 14/08 expected 335K 12.30 GMT
US leading indicators July expected -0,1 14.00 GMT
US Phily fed August expected 25.0 16.00 GMT

Gold at 404,00, with WTI Sept at 47,26

***JPY***
USD/JPY (109,50), broke 109,75-112,50 triangle yesterday prinitng a 4 week low (109,28) on active JPY buying against USD but also against EUR and GBP. Reported Japanese importer bids below 109 should support the pair today while 110,80-111 looks toppish. Our medium term range trading strategy is still valid as long as we stay inside 107-112. Only a daily (weekly) close above 112 would open way to critical 115 pivotal point.
EUR/JPY currently 135,15, retracing lower but nevertheless neutral. Support around 135 and resistance ahead of 137.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8230), was attacked yesterday again, testing 1,82 support zone. MPC's last meeting minutes expressing a dovish stance on BOE's interest rate policy contributed to pressuring the GBP lower. The GBP is looking offered but like yesterday we don't feel confortable selling at current levels. Resistances at 1,8350 and 1,8410 while support zone still around 1,8200.
EUR/GBP (0,6770), dinally reached our 0,6770 target (high 0,6775) as expected yesterday. We remain slightly bullish with a 0,6810-20 target.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Moskow 06:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   

Reliable history data
for trading system verification and precise technical analysis
Intraday data are presented since 1997

houston ken 06:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
oil is oversold yen making a comeback ha ha

LAS 06:42 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
i too have a mini account and the way i think is... if i can't make money with mini then thank God i didn't go big... but if i do make money... i can add more lots and more lots etc. etc and one day be a player... i really don't mind losing the money... just seems my calls are all wrong.. so just looking to see on what are some of the entry set ups that some people here use... thanks for your comments though

Wien GD 06:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS: additional comment - the difference is the (NOT) used margin/funds - now I feel, like I have VERY VERY DEEP pockets - feels good, I feel good - indeed I'm trading with mini account!

Wien GD 06:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS - my experience:
I had a standard fx acoount with 30K ... lost it within some weeks ... for me: too large amounts of money moving ... therefore to much fear etc.
Followed my instinct: since some months I'm trading with mini account, where I can decide how large the amount is ... and I can optimize false entries with further positions ... it's also very good for learning.
Now I'm profitable since the very beginning with mini forex.
Think about it.

Ldn 06:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
BERLIN (AP)--The outlook for the German economy has brightened as strong exports support the recovery of Europe's largest economy, the German finance ministry said Thursday.

wisconsin tim 06:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
i almost never look at anything besides 4hr + longer charts

i am still testing a few systems so am only take positions here or there as they arise (see previous posts by me for what I trade).

And I am by no means an expert so take my advice for what's it worth.

Melbourne Qindex 06:03 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:59 GMT - Send me an e-mail and I will give you the location of my monthly cycle chart's key quantized level.

LAS 05:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
To wisconsni:... u say that is how u interpret those indicators but are those the indicators u use to trade off of?? If not what ones are u using? Thanks for you help and to all that have answered so far

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:59 GMT - This is a very sensitive question. Nothing is absolute, so place a stop loss and have a peace of mind.

guangdong 05:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   

Information of Aug 19h, 2004
NO Currency Low point possible High point possible Trend of daily graph Reference for operation The lowest and highest point of this week’s forecast.
0 DINIW 87.50 88.70 Down 87.00 / 88.80
1 RUD/USD 1.2280 1.2450 Up Buy at 1.2300 1.2270/ 1.2500
2 GBP/USD 1.8200 1.8350 Up Buy at 1.8180 1.8280 / 1.8700
3 AUD/USD 0.7100 0.7200 Up Buy at 0.7100 0.7060 / 0.7280
4 USD/CHF 1.2300 1.2550 Down Buy atCHF 1.2540 1.2220/ 1.2600
5 USD/CAD 1.3000 1.3120 Down Buyat CAD1.3110 1.2800 / 1.3250
6 USD/JPY 109.00 110.20 Down Buy at JPY 110.00 109.40 / 112.00


This chart is only for reference. Please be resposible with your own operation. Be sure to set a lowest cut point (short point)that you can afford!
In order to prevent lose, after you buy , when the price increases by 30 points, you can short at the price you buy. This operation is just for reference. You can do your own operation.
My QQ number is : 30963505,. Please feel free to contact me.
Good luck to everybody!!
E-mail: [email protected]
Yours sincerely,
Yinzi

LAS 05:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
very nice post... i see things a bit differently now... thank u so much for the chart... easy entrys after the fact... to me they don't see that clear till the next day :)

wisconsni tim 05:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
well here is how I interpret those indicators.

If the long wouldn't of been confirmed by MACD on the next bar it would be time to exit.

The problem is this is sooooo easy after the fact

See 15 min Chart

ICT ML 05:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 05:31 GMT August 19, 2004
because nothing moves in a straight line.

for a trend to be in place there has to be fresh fuel to the fire. Most people like to add on dips/spikes to fib areas, and some will buy/sell new highs (deadly in a sidewinder market like we have now)

but anything is possible, just put the odds more in your favor before you go pushing the flashing buttoms.

wisconsin tim 05:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
well those indicators look like in no man's land to mildly bullish on 15 minute chart for EUR/USD

MACD is crossing for buy but not as low as I would want it and RSI has rising bottoms

Ldn 05:33 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
AUD S/T Bullish On Charts - Citi

LAS 05:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
To wisconsin::: imo.. how can the ST trend be up if the price is at S1... seems to me if price is at S1 then the ST trend would be down since price had to drop to S1

wisconsin tim 05:28 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
well before when I was using h/l/c pivots I would apply a filter for ST trend. IE. if ST trend is up I would only buy @ s1 with stops below and ignore r1 except as a potential TP area

LAS 05:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
right now here is what i am looking at....on the 15 min chart i see the eur/usd about 10 pips below pivot point.... RSI, ROC, and MACD not looking good... i look at the gbp/usd and it is right at the pivot with all bullish RSI, ROC and MACD... now one looks like going down.. one looks like its gonna go up... /shrugs... i just feel lost... is there something more i should be reading into?

ICT ML 05:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 05:17 GMT August 19, 2004
All I will say is the last 30 min signal we logged on eur-usd was a buy at 1.2300, and it was a pretty good signal. I would not go short on it until it fails at the upper resistence of the past few days myself

LAS 05:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
so u look for buys at S1 and sells at R1??? if that is the case what would u do if price breaks S1??? Thanks for the info

wisconsin tim 05:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
if you are in the middle of the s1/r1 range you have to allow (if your risk tolerance says its ok) for larger stops. If your risk tolerance doesn't allow for a larger stop then you shouldn't enter the position.

imo gt's

syd 05:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Options expiries at the NY cut tonight
1.2340 and 1.2400
AUD/USD Solid bids at 0.7130 Knock out options at 0.7200 & 0.7220

LAS 05:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I am happy with pip grabbing and happy with most trades that go 20 or so pips in my favor but it just seem i am mostly wrong. I have pivot points set up off of yesterdays o/h/l/c but my entry stinks.. i think it will bounce off of R1 and it goes through it and visa versa... so what should i be looking for off of a 15 min chart??? To me right now i am thinking of shorting the eur/usd .. what u think???

ICT ML 05:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 05:00 GMT August 19, 2004
for starters get rid of the 5 min chart

look at 15-30-60 for intraday pip grabbing
look at 60 min and 4 hr for swings
look at daily-weekly-monthly for trends

works for us

Minneapolis DRS2 05:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
LAS 05:00 GMT August 19, 2004
You might consider trading off a longer-term chart instead. I started with a 5-minute chart, but ended up screwing up my perspective due to "noise".

I ended up switching over to a 15-minute chart. I find that it gives me a balance between the "responsiveness" of the 5-minute chart and the "longer-term view" of the longer charts.

The 15-minute chart and accurate pivot point calculations every day have really helped my trading. Small things, to be sure, but they are the kind of things that really help.

Hope this helps...

LAS 05:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys... struggling trader for 10 years and just opened up to the forex a few months ago but not much success. can someone please help me out with a few pointers if i am trading off of a 5 min chart? Thanks to all that can help :)

LAX-LGB SNP 04:56 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
$$$ stands to gain IF EURUSD stays below 1.2344-38 & USDCHF above 1.2445, also Gold below 404.96-404.30

wisconsin tim 04:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
well the test results from the link previous is based on taking a long position at HI CLOSE stop @ LO CLOSE or vice versa and closing @ EOD tomorrow

The other way which I "believe" would be better but really can't test unless I get into 15 minute data for each day. Would be to to fade near the extremes (see my AUD short a couple days ago) with stops just outside the extremes.
The premise of this is that 60% of the time (across all pairs)the close will be between the first 2 numbers. The other premise is that the extremes (last 2 numbers) has only been crossed 15% of all times in sample set.

This is based on predicting the range of RSI for tomorrow which you can then use and extrapolate the prices for that RSI level.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 04:12 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd 04:10 GMT August 19, 2004
Cheers...and good trades......

Syd 04:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN
Sorry mate - nothing on our books for BOJ until 105 yen.

Ina co'z 04:09 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
IMO..support for cable at 1.8164...gl/gt...!

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 04:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
good morning everybody...
finnaly eur/gbp done at 0.6775

Quebec Swap 04:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 03:59 GMT

I'm long Gbp/Usd @ 1.8250. I'm looking to get out above that. There should be some retracement sometime which would most likely be capped at 1.8330 at the top end. But i say we will hover close to 1.8290. The real issue could be retail #'s which come out from U.K. in 4hrs or so.

Dallas GEP 04:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Tim , give us an example of an order you would place for EURO tom both Short and Long using this data with stops and targets please

wisconsin tim 04:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
ranges for tomorrow:

HI Close Lo Close Hi High Lo Low
EURUSD 1.2391 1.2303 1.2412 1.2248
GBPUSD 1.8295 1.8139 1.8350 1.8127
USDCHF 1.2494 1.2377 1.2564 1.2341
USDYEN 109.95 108.83 110.57 108.89
AUDUSD 0.7191 0.7126 0.7194 0.7097
EURYEN 135.68 134.43 136.43 134.20
EURGBP 0.6798 0.6753 0.6796 0.6729
USDCAD 1.3087 1.2973 1.3148 1.2959

CA Clouy 03:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:22 GMT August 19
Dr. Q. a friend of mine longed GBP/usd @ 1.8400ish with half of her equity in her standard account. Yesterday's low almost wiped her out. May i plz have ur view on the near future on GBP/usd? should she run now with huge loss, or wait for some bounces? Your opinion is highly appreciated.

CA Clouy 03:54 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
tim //still waiting for ur daily range info. I kept ur monday and tuesday's forecast data and verified them, the results are very nice. TIA.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 03:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd 03:40 GMT August 19, 2004
No desk will have such information....except after the fact....disclosing sources is not the way you stay in business in this game...nothing misleading about it ..just a factor you may or may not want to take on board....g/t

Syd 03:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 02:17 GMT August 19, 2004
Our desk has no information of this kind. You need to identity your source or include IMO etc to avoid misleading statements.

GOLD COAST MARTIN 03:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 03:07 GMT August 19, 2004
HI TIM
Your system has definitely got merit...it has a strong capital preservation factor...a good system for conservative traders...definitely tradeable....of course as all systems it needs patience and capital...good luck with it....g/t

Ldn 03:31 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel (smile)

houston ken 03:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bulls and bears on dollar are struggling , greenspan is saying one thing and the economic datas are saying another thing God help us all. the best thing is to trade the crosses.+

Melbourne Qindex 03:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 03:21 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 03:00 GMT - You are welcome.

Calabash TarHeel 03:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 03:01 GMT August 19, 2004
Denying the Obvious

How many times must the cold, hard reality of bleak economic data slap USD bulls in the face.

Never! Long Live the USD Bulls!

wisconsin tim 03:07 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Hello all,
Well I am done testing a system across the pairs i trade.

Is this system tradeable? Results Here

Basically you enter long at R1 (or short at S1 whichever comes first) stop at opposite (S1 or R1) or close at end of day. Spread is taken into into account in results.

After number of trades is a # in () this represents the number stopped out. In a small sample (10) of those, I hand checked these and you would have regained an average of 32 pips to enter the next trade there.

Comments appreciated

Ldn 03:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Denying the Obvious

How many times must the cold, hard reality of bleak economic data slap USD bulls in the face before they finally accept it? Instead of hitting a "soft patch" the US economy seems to be teetering on the edge of a black hole with deflation and recession looming inside. The lower than expected CPI number came as no surprise to us as data world-wide - not just in US - has consistently shown complete absence of pricing power with secular deflationary effects of China and India continuing to exert their influence on the world economy. The bizarre irony of a negative CPI caused by lower gasoline prices as oil hits daily record highs was well explained by our colleague in last night's US wrap up note and is worth repeating here. The gasoline surplus is temporary and should disappear by September, at which point the US consumers will be faced with the unenviable choice of paying more for fuel or buying less of other goods as their wages remain stagnant. It is this inability of the US economy to produce jobs and corresponding wage increases -- that is the driving force behind the deflationary pressures that persist throughout the system.

The Fed, by trying to stifle the inflationary impact of oil prices, as usual is focusing on the wrong problem. Through its single-minded desire for higher rates it may tip the country into a recession. Virtually every economic statistic of the past month has disappointed to the downside, including yesterday's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both of which printed below expectations. More importantly still, forward data continues to show a contraction in trend. The Redbook weekly retail sales have reported a 2nd negative week in a row implying that Retail Sales for August may be tepid at best. Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust observes that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey which showed a precipitous drop to 12 from 32 expected, has a 90% correlation with the ISM number. According to Bangalore, this months decline in Empire could have a very negative affect on the upcoming national ISM report.

Yet while the dollar is weaker against the yen finally breaking the 110 handle in the European session, it is maintaining strength against the euro. Why? One simple reason is that most European market players are on the beaches of St. Tropez happily ignoring the depressing drumbeat of data. The other, perhaps much more important explanation is that many traders are reluctant to establish new euro long positions at these levels without additional supporting economic data. As the euro trades to the 1.24 handle it approaches the natural top of its long term range against the dollar. Tonight's mixed Euro-zone data (FRF Trade Balance better this month but last month revised downward, CPI lower than expected) offers little guidance for the session that will have no US data to report. We may even test the 1.2300 handle as dealers probe stops in what is shaping up to be a directionless day. Yet for players looking longer term, the persistent stream of negative US eco data will eventually catch up with the dollar and may even make Goldman Sachs' quixotic 1.36 year end target on the pair seem like a reasonable price.

Forex market News.

Calabash TarHeel 03:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
Hello Dr. Q. Congrats and many thank for your post for todays action on gbp/jpy. Were it not for your call I would have been out way to soon.

Thanks Again.

Melbourne Qindex 02:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Calabash TarHeel 02:50 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Gep,
Depending on whats happening across the board, if it hits 135.50, I may take it short then.


Thanks Martin, I Have been holding out for 67, but giving up on that for now. Hopefully it will give us a shot at .6550/60

Thanks again, guys

GOLD COAST MARTIN 02:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 02:23 GMT August 19, 2004
Afternoon ..My system picked a severe correction for AUD and especially NZD which i posted 2 weeks ago...main reason for this is slowing down in demand of commodities....Quantifying this demand decrease within an exact time span is very hard.. it is more of a human equation than a mechanical one...the human equation is saying that the kiwi top trading range is 6650 for now with 64 range to be seen during 1st week of september and gradual drop to 62 by late seprember,afterwhich it will 43-discover the 59 double bottom level...from there....god knows!!....g/t...BOTH AUD AND nzd have been running their own race in the past month...until this coomodity factor starts to apprear visibly, their correlation with all the other currencies will continue to be non-existent...both pairs right now are good for medium to long trades...they are non-rerformers for day traders...g/t

Dallas GEP 02:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
tarheel, YES I do look at 1 hour chart

Ltn th 02:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I have one model suggesting a very major jump for skippy(audusd) preceeded by a dip outside my normal 40+ sl. I wonder if any neural cycle analysts or others would care to indulge in that disgusting habit of bottom picking and suggest an entry point?

Calabash TarHeel 02:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN

Hello Martin. Wondering if you think the kiwi has topped out or does it have a little upside left in it yet.

Thanks

GOLD COAST MARTIN 02:17 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:19 GMT August 19, 2004
It clearly means that large institution has been given instructions by BOJ for the months of august and september to keep the yen ""consistently above 10950"".. g/t

Calabash TarHeel 02:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep
Do you see any chance of getting to short eur/jpy around 135.50/60?
Thanks

ICT ML 02:08 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Thinking Gbp-Jpy is a buy here for 201 maybe soon. Starting to diverge a bit on hourly, so this last dip or the next might be a good buy.

Syd 02:08 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CHINESE SICK LEAVE

Hung Chow calls in to work and says, "Hey, boss I not come work today, I really sick. I got headache, stomach ache and my legs hurt. I not come work."

The boss says, "You know Hung Chow, I really need you today. When I feel like this I go to my wife and tell her to give me sex. That makes everything better and I go work. You try that."

Two hours later Hung Chow calls again: "Boss, I do what you say and I feel great. I be at work soon. You got nice house."

CA Clouy 02:05 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 01:51 GMT August 19, 2004
Ken, may i plz know the reason of shorting eur/yen now? hourly chart is still bullish. TIA. GL & GT

cairo Amgad 02:00 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT August 19, 2004
Thank you; 1 lot for daily trade

Sydney Alimin 01:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk: you might be right, we still have some room to the upside for euro, data might just help pushing it up there

Dallas GEP 01:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
MY Noody girl, I say we got 109.80 - 109.20 range for asian boys and girls, what do U think my lady????

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Jay//
What's Your call?

Ldn 01:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Aus.leading indicators of wages point to pick-up in wage pressures and conditions likely to put rate hike back on RBA cards by December
AMP

houston ken 01:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sold euro yen

houston ken 01:51 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sold euro yen

Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
AMGAD, 1 lot based on taking up $100.00 margin for that ONE lot

Sin HS 01:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Dr. Q, any thoughts on gold and silver, thanks in advance.

Bangkok bkk 01:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD:

Refer to my post yesterday Asian Trading Session:

"It is a very good opportunity to take LONG position today, if we see EUR/USD dips lower to around 1.2290-1.2315 as refer to my previous post on Sunday"
---------------------------------------------------------

Today(Aug 19,2004), EUR/USD may test the more expected high price of 1.2390/400 during European trading session today possibly and then it may sell off to the low level of 1.2300/1.2310 again during US trading session.

However, if the Euro stand above 1.2390-400 until NY close today, we probably don't see 1.2300/310 again this week.

Trading Stategy: 1) Try to exit Euro long position around 1.2360-380
2) Re-establish EUR/USD long agin around 1.2290-1.2310 if see during NY trading session.

Note: No short EUR/USD recommendation so far for today and tomorrow due to the risk of the Euro sustainable gain above 1.2390-1.2400.

GL. & GT.


Dallas GEP 01:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
One of the HARDEST things about FX IMO is to learn about the relationships that each pair has with other pairs so that when a stop is under attack. whether or not it is an across the board situation or specific to that pair ALONE. This requires the very quick analysis of perhaps 3 or 4 differenent pairs. PLatform operators are NO DOUBT stop running much more than they used to so the analysis of other pairs to your existing possie helps to determine whether or not this is happening.

cairo Amgad 01:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004
(That's why many of us do NOT like to carry more than 5% or total equity on any one trade).

May you give me an example

If I have 2000$ equity 5%=100$ and i trade mini-forex (1:100 margin,100$ margin per lot), how many lot i could open simultaneous?

Thank you, GL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 01:30 GMT August 19, 2004 ///
I don't know...
That's the best I can do...
For me to do more I have in a big Research firm with others that believe things can work the way i think can...
I am not rich...looked for creditior...Got non

Brisbane L 01:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Perrie ...Just thinking its great to see some old faces back on too

Calabash TarHeel 01:36 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Eur/Gbp @ .6775
I have never been able to get many pips out of this pair. Maybe this time.

Gl, Gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 01:23 GMT August 19, 2004 //
Thanks alot...appreciate that positive attitude...
I will do that soon.
The stops are hardest...had many attempts...
to tell you the truth...I can't find Empirical nor mathematical proof...
maybe attempt it soon though...
And thanks again Clouy

Calabash TarHeel 01:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Gep
That's why many of us do NOT like to carry more than 5% or total equity on any one trade

I totally agree with you there. I pretty much stick to max 4% per trade. Allows me run some pretty deep stops, still keep trading. I totally understand the method you trade and have no problem with it. Do it myself on occasion. Stops are not cast in stone, regardless of what some cry here.
Good Luck

sar jf 01:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bahrain no ofence but if yr system cant narrow it down a little more than that its not worth playing around with - u can come up with something more effective - i need to identify im wrong alot faster than that in relation to my payoff expected

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:26 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
L.A CS 01:20 GMT August 19, 2004
Bahrain Within 10 Pips, why do you keep on copying and pasting others' posts? You're already taking up enough space with your own BS.

Oh Thanks for asking...
Got my BS in Engineering...
Thank You!!!

CA Clouy 01:23 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, it's very nice of you to post your orders *Free of charge, to help newbies like me, to earn some $$$. To me, they are like mid-term or long-term trade because the stops are way too high compared with the profits. Even 10% of those orders go wrong would definitely negate all profits earned from others. On the other hand, a system with 90% accuracy is already a dream haven.
Can you tune your system to provide lower stop orders? say 1:3 ratio? with higher hit probablity entry, (I guess euro 1.2472 is a bit hard to get soon) and post the (daily/weekly) range information like you did before.
Anyway, nice work!

L.A CS 01:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips, why do you keep on copying and pasting others' posts? You're already taking up enough space with your own BS.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:20 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK 01:16 GMT August 19, 2004
Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:10 GMT August 19, 2004

Thanks its clear now


Your'e welcomed and everyone else in this room...(With no exceptions)

Spr Noods 01:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
No offence, but when u get stray cats fights
U know trading market is not doing fab trades

perrie como 01:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
tks ldn
will stay apart for sometime, contact Jay if any for my address

g/l to all anyway

helsinki JAK 01:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:10 GMT August 19, 2004

Thanks its clear now

Melbourne Qindex 01:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:10 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK 01:04 GMT August 19, 2004
Do we have to place all 34 orders///
If You have enough to cover your margin used
The (Margin used)/Equity<5%
Margin Used Max~Number of orders*Margin Required*.06
NY...bugeting it to 5%...will give enough time for the other covers to happen and still handle the Stop (If ever happens 1:10,000,000 Trades)

Ldn 01:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK perry como is an old act here fwiw

perrie como 01:06 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
just to answer

JAK you look a newbie, by the questions you post...so pls consider It...

Bahrain...AB in sprintime was questionin my long term views as distortin her short term pipping....now she understood there's a long trend going on


pls be yourself not hiding in commercial numbers


hope this end our talks

helsinki JAK 01:04 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Do we have to place all 34 orders

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 01:02 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004
bahrain...I bet 100 bucks that in a year youll not be posting anymore since your side strategy will kill you///

Ask HK AB...he never gives credit to anyone...Oh..he is on a break for a few days...he might be there...
You guys will fit just fine

helsinki JAK 01:01 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
pierre.
Who forced you to come to this forum?
If some one is taking his or her time to help out please respect that.

nyc jk 00:59 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, well that's a good idea re the margin, you should do some backtesting during a strong trending period though, say $/JPY in late 1998, to make sure if it does go wrong you don't get wiped out with stops that wide. cheers

perrie como 00:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
leaving this arabian forum

stay well to friends

Bangkok bkk 00:58 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Still holding long @ 1.2300 , Profitable Stop loss @ 1.2315 , T/P order 1.2360

USD/CHF: Still holding short @ 1.2500 , Profitable Stop loss @ 1.2480 , T/P order 1.2425.

GL. & GT.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:47 GMT August 19, 2004
Artificial Intelligence is my guess. 6 or 7 neutrons. System fed with historical data.

///
LOL Dallas...6 is what's left in my brain from working on this..
Might have to the system 7 hours to come up with one levels for eur...
Not to question how to come up with a nuarl network for the ai to do it correctly.....it's not correlation matrix...trust me

Gen dk 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
A good trade from a bad trade is easily determined in my mind by the amount of pips LOSS you have to carry compared to the eventual PIPS gained when you take profit. For example, although I did make a small amount on money on multiple Eur/JPY trades last week I had to carry an interim loss of over 100 pips. So if you could have made MORE money going the opposite direction of your possie THEN really your possie or entry was NOT good. The HIDDEN cost of carrying a bad tRADE would be if you are UNABLE to take other trades while you are nursing the bad one. That's why many of us do NOT like to carry more than 5% or total equity on any one trade.

perrie como 00:57 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bahrain...I bet 100 bucks that in a year youll not be posting anymore since your side strategy will kill you

perrie como 00:55 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I will leave you in about a second since you are a bunch of numbers that are more similar to a religion than to the market

maybe you might fill northern up to you

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:53 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 00:47 GMT August 19, 2004
bahrain I know your island was the first thrown by an asteraid in the last ages, but this is not giving you any rights to fool people here...
market is not a bunch of asteroids you have to be cought of

///
Critics are welcomed...only from the same field...and that they contributed something in any filed of estimation...
U try it Dude...I think you will give up in about a week.

globalview 00:52 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
dallas md
emails postings are not allowed ..pls contact Jay
btw you shd post the reason you wd meet people

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:49 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK 00:45 GMT August 19, 2004 //
Could be the time...application.wait now+Something/60/60/24...in the macro
Might wana change that somthing to slightly higher values...they are seconds...
Could be your PC is slightlty slow

Dallas MD 00:48 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I would like to meet any Forex traders who live in Dallas, Texas. Please email me at [email protected]

Good Trading Everyone,

Mauricio

perrie como 00:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
bahrain I know your island was the first thrown by an asteraid in the last ages, but this is not giving you any rights to fool people here...
market is not a bunch of asteroids you have to be cought of

Dallas GEP 00:47 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Artificial Intelligence is my guess. 6 or 7 neutrons. System fed with historical data.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:46 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK 00:43 GMT August 19, 2004
Bahrain

How do you come up with these levels?///
Lots of Mathematics

helsinki JAK 00:45 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
My platform gets stuck when placing the order. any hint to why?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 00:37 GMT August 19, 2004
thanks Bahrain. I can imagine that your % of winning trades would be very high.....would be a bit painful though if you got stopped. one losing trade would wipe out 15 winners. as GEP suggested, have you tried backtesting it using tighther stop parameters? obviously would decrease your number of winning trades, but maybe decrease your risk / improve your performance? just a thought

///
It's the margin that worries me
The orders/Covers...work in an independet way... with a max 5 in possition for every 34 orders...so whatever the number of orders in there...say 100...Your Margin should not exceed 5% when (5/34*100*Margin/Lot)/Total equity <5%...
Controling the number of orders is whole thing

nyc jk 00:44 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
gotcha perrie como.....yeah, that's why I was asking the question! cheers.

helsinki JAK 00:43 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain

How do you come up with these levels?

perrie como 00:42 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk

will not comment an aroun 5 pct stop loss in a side trend market...but who does the business knows It's stupid

Dallas GEP 00:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ok BAHRAIN.....so 30 PIPS WON'T hold MOST of these trades in????

Sin Sam 00:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT August 19, 2004
Como, no time to sleep, I will sleep enough when I die!!! LOL

I totally agree with what you say mate... Cheers :)

perrie como 00:41 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
superbian texan

think might need some extras to the New Orleans Carnival with a shot down there in Dallas......consider It next year, inflation hear beating my censored :_)

nyc jk 00:40 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
mars?

perrie como 00:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
sorry but It seems you talking about Mars

nyc jk 00:27 GMT August 19, 2004
Bahrain, very good programming job to automate orders directly to your platform, impressive. just looking at your levels and trying to understand, say in EUR for example, you would sell at 1.2490 with a 1.2961 stop and a 29 pip t/p?? am I reading that right?

Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Como, no time to sleep, I will sleep enough when I die!!! LOL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:38 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:30 GMT August 19, 2004
///
It wont...I tested this over 500 trades non happened..
The likelyhood that it would is about 1:10,000,000 Trades...
Maybe about 1:1,000,000 Days...
We don't live that long i Guess...LOL...
Plus before one happenes...I think you will be rich to effort it!!
LOL

Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Well BAHRAIN, based on what I see from the list BEFORE the last on you posted it looks like the closest entry we have at this time is a EUR/GBP short from .6701 and a GBP/JPY long from 198.76

perrie como 00:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
hi frnd GEP do you sleep any :))

have luck

but sleep lil more too, as if not luck cd be misanderstood


stey well

nyc jk 00:37 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
thanks Bahrain. I can imagine that your % of winning trades would be very high.....would be a bit painful though if you got stopped. one losing trade would wipe out 15 winners. as GEP suggested, have you tried backtesting it using tighther stop parameters? obviously would decrease your number of winning trades, but maybe decrease your risk / improve your performance? just a thought

perrie como 00:35 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nice
still my favourite Japanese Yen strenghtening view from... is the best across

tks all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:34 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
helsinki JAK 00:25 GMT August 19, 2004
Noo still has problems with decimals///
Control Panel...Reginol ..Languge..set to English USA

Syd 00:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Citigroup faces probe over bonds
Link
Citigroup shook the eurozone government bond market first by selling €11bn of securities in less than two minutes, and then buying back €4bn at a lower price soon after. This forced EuroMTS, platform operator, to limit the amount of bonds a bank could sell within two minutes

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:32 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 00:27 GMT August 19, 2004
Bahrain, very good programming job to automate orders directly to your platform, impressive. just looking at your levels and trying to understand, say in EUR for example, you would sell at 1.2490 with a 1.2961 stop and a 29 pip t/p?? am I reading that right?

///
Yes U are...It won't hit!!
The covers will hit before.

Dallas GEP 00:30 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain.....I have no doubt the stops won't hit but the problem is I may be one of the few here that could hold those stops . We are talking here about 300-400 pip stops. If you look back at the HISTORY of these calls would 30-35 pip stops hold MOST of these IN or not???

nyc jk 00:27 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, very good programming job to automate orders directly to your platform, impressive. just looking at your levels and trying to understand, say in EUR for example, you would sell at 1.2490 with a 1.2961 stop and a 29 pip t/p?? am I reading that right?

helsinki JAK 00:25 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Noo still has problems with decimals

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:24 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
I will run the orders now
2 Minutes...BRB

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT August 19, 2004 //
Yes

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:18 GMT August 19, 2004 ///
The stops won't hit...trust me!!
Try this for a while...
I am sure it will be worth while and will outperform any good trader...it's just orginzed

Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OK BAHRAIN....you are working on FFFXXXCCCMMM platform it appears then right. Does your program feed the orders DIRECTLY into the orders board???

Syd 00:19 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST MARTIN 14:41 GMT August 17, 2004
USD/JPY 10950 area is BOJ revised area for august september.....be careful,,,,,g/t

What does this mean ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:11 GMT August 19, 2004
Ok Bahrain, How about those orders that were Mons. and Tues and that HAVE not been hit yet. Where can we find them because THOSE are still valid right???? Once the order is hit IF we see that price again later, have you been re-entering???///
They are valid...I guess I have regrenerat them...
if it was hit then should never use them again...Have to enter the ones after...
if they hit and have not covered..just have to wait...might hit the day's after and average down/up...never change the covers..they will hit

Dallas GEP 00:18 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, those numbers are DIFFRERENT than the ones you posted earlier. Are THESE last ones the WEDS list??? I would also suggest to you that a 35 pip stop SHOULD keep most of those entries in....MOST would NOT be able to carry those LARGE stops even on small lots.

Bruxville Jim 00:16 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
btw, do the old orders still apply? Or only the new set?

Bruxville Jim 00:15 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OFF now... will overview your posts later... GN

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 00:13 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
OK Jim
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/MyDailyOrders.htm

Dallas GEP 00:11 GMT August 19, 2004 Reply   
Ok Bahrain, How about those orders that were Mons. and Tues and that HAVE not been hit yet. Where can we find them because THOSE are still valid right???? Once the order is hit IF we see that price again later, have you been re-entering???

 




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