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Forex Forum Archive for 08/21/2004

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PRG JIT 20:00 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
re: Biscuit Boy: well, well, well, the futures in oil could be a bubble, already every driver in the world knows this "price" and goes with a "light" foot and his car takes not 9 but 8 litres now and the demand will be lower, I did post 2 yrs ago on the other forum that I give to the oil 10, max. 15 yrs only. There are other more flammable chemicals but the problem is deeper - the taxes and the producers - big multibillion companies with effect but in last few ys. the world has enough all the problems with towel-countries. It is a long march.... As for the fxmkt, the Pound was sold too much ag. all (see at least gbp/aud and other crosses) the story that behind this a top in gb rates is a fairy-tale, some big players sold Pound ag. everything as they do from time to time, while the e is holding 2240. Be prepared that the resistance 2385/95 is very weak now. I bought Cable last hour before closing at 8192, 85 and 68 and I am waiting for the recovery. The Friday was full of deviations. Look to buy gbp/jpy lower if seen and sell eur/gbp above 0,68. Gbp/chf could be? a trade near 2,25 but eur/chf went through 1,5395 but in this kind of mkt could be a false break (I sold 1,54 and usd/chf 1,2530) and looking to close this twins fast. Because at present time I prefer to trade eur/usd and usd/jpy - the mkt where large money is going through and lower manipulation could be. (Also see gold and aud!) Defence of the dollar is a short term thing, the hint that the middles sold 2 bln eur is possible a reason. (To fill the looses from stockmkts - they missed the up move last summer when they refused to touch anything American and were buying eur and eur/gbp and then came back to Wall street too late...)
Have a nice Sunday.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:41 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
It is funny the higher the futures market takes oil the lower the price at my local gas station! Hope it hits $100 per barrel and maybe I can buy it at $1 a gallon again lol.

Bangkok bkk 15:58 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 10:29 GMT August 21, 2004

ab// Any views on USD/JPY? ... Do you long or short this pair? What 's your target?

TIA.

hk ab 15:09 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
There are oil stories every news report.

hk ab 15:09 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
oilman, fyi, the local TV newswire overwhelmingly looking to oil price rocket......

Global-View Research 11:12 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
Oil prices unsettle markets - by Investica

Although US indicators are still relatively firm, there will be increased fears that high oil prices will damage the consumer and business spending outlook. In this environment, the Fed will be more reluctant to increase interest rates and this will tend to undermine the US currency. The latest capital flows data offered some relief, but private inflows are likely to be fragile. This will maintain the dollar's dependency on central bank inflows from Asia and flows should be strong enough to avert rapid dollar losses. Greater confidence over global growth would also hurt the Euro and the number of long speculative positions will also make it difficult for the Euro to advance. Nevertheless, despite intermittent rallies, the overall dollar trend is liable to be for depreciation. ..See full update in our new research section CLICK HERE

hk ab 10:29 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 05:49 GMT August 21, 2004

concur with your last statement.. patience.

Haifa ac 06:50 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
London e 19:50 GMT August 20, 2004
Google (GOOG) destroyed me today ... Im back to forex. Have a good weekend traders. // How can you trade forex after you have been destroyed?!

Moskow 06:49 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
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HK [email protected] 05:57 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 17:57 GMT August 20, 2004
RF// You don't wonder why chf goes opp. with gold? just ask.

"Paris ib 18:08 GMT August 20, 2004
HK [email protected] And the U.S. equity markets are rallying on this? And oil is falling? Sorry I don't get it. Wouldn't an Iranian intervention be tantamount to an ESCALATION in the conflict in Iraq??? Or is the U.S. expected to welcome Iranian intervention? I know I am missing something here, I just don't know what it is. "


I do not have too many problems about gold. I just try to base on Tech. to my best personal style.

HK [email protected] 12:33 GMT July 3, 2004
GOLD on a chart fantasy....This time the current trend may break the 430$/Oz. multi-year Res. On the way to 450$/Oz first.
Though looks like hallucinating on some indicators I could only estimate a target. To my great sorrow things are moving by waves and not straight lines, so I had to absorb the shocks by sinking my hands deeper into my pockets. but now(out of the wood), I am more confident as that target above has begun to appear on shorter time frames.

It is nice to toy with fundamentals, but one has to take care that when they appear, the market may take the reverse course of what those Fund. are suppose to cause. Thus always watch the Tech.
And try
to have a simple criteria to exit with profits in a volatile market.

Bangkok bkk 05:49 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 03:11 GMT August 21, 2004
bkk// it would be kind if you will stay tune on Monday. :D
I prefer gbp than eur 'cos of the clear reversal signal on eur but not on gbp
----------------------------------------

Yes, ab. I will.

About GBP, one thing that we should keep in mind is that "before GBP/USD sustainable plunge through their long- term trend line support, market tend to test them first by making shallow penetrations". Although these dips are warnings of impending trend reversals, one more spike higher(gbp/usd) is IMMINENT. Especially in the THIN MARKET CONDITION. So I probably stand aside from the GBP until I see the more trades behind a price move, the stronger volume, the conviction there is in the marketplace of the trend.

As for the EURO, I still doubt if it is going to fell sharply lower on Monday? , cause I didn't see any Asian Sharks adjust their SHORT eur/usd orders from above 1.24++ (Not yet, but they could do that if they want to)

So, I probably won't rush in and sell eur/usd on Monday or Tuesday until I have a confirmation.

As the old cliche said that good things come to those who wait.

GL. and have a good weekend.






hk ab lazy 04:07 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
I am fine, amc.

ny amc 04:03 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
hk...ab...........please remember that some of us do really appreciate and learn from your posts. so please KEEP THEM COMING

hk ab lazy 03:12 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
best play however shuold be short dlr/jpy (but no room now)...
needs some retracement to start with to avoid buy high/sell low.

hk ab lazy 03:11 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
bkk// it would be kind if you will stay tune on Monday. :D
I prefer gbp than eur 'cos of the clear reversal signal on eur but not on gbp.

HKG SK 02:07 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
We really have to rethink the association between Gold and the US$ from now on.
GOLD
There is a common fallacy that gold can't go up if interest rates are rising. Well, this simply isn't true because in the 1970's gold went up several -fold at the same time when interest rates went through the roof. The case for owning gold is even more compelling now because rising rates will surely censored the monster debt-bubble and the public will turn to the only asset, which is free from debt.

US$
Over the past 3 years, the world's reserve currency has lost more than 30% of its value. However, this year the US$ has gained back some 6% or so. From a sentiment point of view, now would be a perfect time for US$ to enter a phase of multi-month rally. the public remains bearish while smart money seems to be accumulating dollars. Oil has now surged to $48 perbarrel and the fuel of choice is traded in dollars. A surging crude price may also be affecting the dollar demand in a positive way. Remember, more dollars are needed to pay for expensive oil. The dollar may rally and recover 10-155 of its value over the coming months.

So, now is the time to buy gold and buy dollars.

GT

Bangkok bkk 01:52 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
hk ab lazy 18:03 GMT August 20, 2004
bkk, key day reversal on eur likely....

ab// Yep, it could be a reversal day for the euro.
By the way, I already exited my eur long @ 1.2320 with only 30pips gain.

hk ab lazy 00:01 GMT August 21, 2004 Reply   
ldn// compare with the eur, your gold move from 404 to 412 is only about 200 pips move in fx.

With out that cloud, I still manage, gbp long, eur shorts to get a bigger movement than that.
MOREOVER, your 'cloudy-aud/jpy-prediction' turns out to be a "130 pips s/l wiping" and YET, it's still red and under 79...

So, it could only be regarded as a "0-0" view, nothing worths celebration.

Sept 6th will tell the truth......aren't you feeling uneasy dlrchf can't benefits from the rising gold?

 




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