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Forex Forum Archive for 08/22/2004

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Global-View Research 23:52 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

What's Up With Yen? (FXA)
This past week saw the yen strengthen in the wake of very soft 2Q GDP data from the prior week and a record high in oil nearing $50 a barrel. No it's not intervention. Japan has not conducted any currency intervention since March 16 of this year. No the worlds' central banks are not switching out of dollar reserves for yen. Japanese investors are still reporting on average decent net outflows into foreign stocks and mainly bonds.

So what has turned the yen on its heels?... See full story in our Research Section CLICK EHRE

boston mpd004 23:49 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on USD/cad anyone? up-down? TIA gl gt

sar jf 23:15 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp 6770-6735-6822 - 1st 2 done 3rd on way

London chippie 22:35 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
My 2 cents worth
eur/gbp -- daily ....rsi above 70 candles inside BB / slow stoch o/b --- hourly chart ....slow stoch turned down / macd about to cross/ divergence ...rsi below 70.. candles inside BB/divergence. .........stalling expected around .6785 .....short @.6778 ..stop .6778 .6705 (32% retracement) ...first support .6740-35

Goes (NL) B747 21:48 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Quebec Swap 21:46 GMT August 22, 2004

good evening,

make sure it is only for some pips, take a note the south may start sooner than later.


Quebec Swap 21:46 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Hope everyone had a nice weekend.

Went long USD/JPY. I expect some retracement. before it heads much further south. not expecting too much of a move but a few pips would do just fine.

Goes (NL) B747 21:38 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
From "The Privateer" -

"What’s Next?:
The Republican convention starts on August 30. On the day that it ends, September 2, the European Central Bank meets to decide on European rates. Then comes Labor Day, and then the US election is ON.

Once the election IS on, the ACTIONS of the Bush Administration will provide the best indicator of how severe they see the situation as being. If the Congress fails to raise the debt limit, they risk the financial system blowing up in their face. And if the Bush Administration attacks Iran, they risk a global political AND financial debacle of mammoth proportions."


CA Clouy 21:38 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

My gbp/usd long possie still open with abit profit. I'm wondering how long the bullish momentum will keep, plus me always bad at closing t/p. Any view on this pair is appreciated.

Barcelona Tony 20:45 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:49 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Oil...two weeks -------->42

Goes (NL) B747 19:32 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:53 GMT August 22, 2004

6th of SEP/04 target is still there, did you enjoy 500++ pips on GBP/JPY ???

btw, do not follow the oil panic as current price is speculation only; as most countries are paying USD 23-26 per barrel.


Deptford HMan 18:29 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Anyone, any thoughts on usd/cad?


Los Angeles ss 18:18 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 18:16 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Well if we are talking about gbp/jpy specifically, after my platform closed I saw it go down to 198.05 on censored. So with support at 198.19, it was debatable whether or not that was BROKE. Opens up with 198.50 so My guess would be 198.19-198.90 range in Early Asia. Howvever things in general may move very little until London

CA Clouy 18:13 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:57 GMT August 22
bc//u still around? i'd like to know ur long-term view on eur/usd and usd/jpy. Do you feel that the "below 1.20" and "below 110" bullish view still hold? TIA.

Los Angeles ss 18:13 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Sorry GEP not geb -- not awake here yet!

Los Angeles ss 18:12 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
geb == what are your thoughts on this for the asian and london sessions?

Los Angeles ss 18:11 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Geb-- I show 198.5

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have live feed for gbp/jpy???

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 14:52 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
HSI 12,593 12,207
Nikki 11,087 10,734
FTSE 4,409 4,317
for the next few days

hk ab 13:53 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
747, I am waiting for your Sept 6th....

hk ab 13:19 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
bkk//dlr/jpy, bearish but seeking levels to sell.

NYC PCM 13:00 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

the more I look at the gold, silver, or any of the gold/silver mining companies charts the more they look dangerously bearish to me with what looks like an imminent steep drop coming.

They've all been moving up in shallow channels from the May low (a bearish chart pattern) and they're now all probing the upper boundary of the channel with bearish divergences on MACD (looking at daily charts).

So either:
1) They burst through the top of the channels in short order here and blow away the divergences, or
2) The more likely scenario - they begin to drop in a 3rd wave dwon from end of March/beginning of april highs.

shanghai bc 12:57 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

NT 06:37 -- Oil may correct for short-term towards 40-45 region..But medium to long term,Oil and the commodities are in mega bull market based on real demand growth from China and India,40% of the whole humanity..Oil and Commodity markets should concentrate more on demand growth side which is a real driving force in these markets..There are too many short-term specs from time to time which needs to be cleaned out but the underlying conditions in these markets are fundamentally bullish..Either China and India's modernization drive collapses or Oil is used up opening a new chapter to another era in the end..Whichever comes first,the Oil and the commodities are to ride once in our life time mega-bull-ride for years to come ..Forex market or even stock markets look like the market for retired folks in their 80's when compared to Oil and Commodity markets these days..

Bribane L 08:33 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
UK 'Tax super-rich at 50%' proposal

Inheritance from £263,000 to £288,000 would be taxed at 22% marginal, increasing to 40% from £288,000 to £763,000.

The 50% rate would apply to inheritance over £763,000 so that only the 13% of estates over £808,000 would lose out.

houston st 06:43 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 06:37 GMT -- the Sep04 contract expired on Friday, making Oct04 the front-month

hong kong nt 06:37 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you think selling sep crude oil future at $50-51, if seen, is a safe trade for next few weeks? Many good trades to you..

NYC PCM 00:33 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   

Very preliminary targets for the mid November cyclical low are between 1.1275 and 1.0851.

Quite a large margin for the moment, although I'm inclined to favor the lower end of the spectrum.

Keep in mind none of this is fully validated as targets until we break the trendline up from the 5/14 low.

Right now with various key cycles pointing down I'm assuming that the tendline down from the February high will hold and we have begun the move down into that big nest of cyclical lows in November.

Goes (NL) B747 00:20 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:14 GMT August 20, 2004
b747, you have left the forum?

Sir, again - I am here.


Goes (NL) B747 00:18 GMT August 22, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 03:17 GMT August 18, 2004

yes, I am here!



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