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Forex Forum Archive for 08/23/2004

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Sydney Alimin 23:47 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
cable target 1.8080 is reached, i suppose some retracement will happen

nyc jk 23:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
revdax - nice call on the $. glad to hear you are enjoying the "sights" on your trip.

hk ab 23:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
we had 100-200 pips assault on eur on USD-bearish sell the rumour buy the fact dynamics but USD rallies quietly without any need of NEWS. What does it infer?

Syd 23:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
fibo support at 1.2130, break here key for the next leg lower

hk ab 23:29 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
My limit dlr/jpy sell still hasn't filled yet....

hk ab 23:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Yesterday was the "first" day we were free from "USD-bearish-songs"..... Vely quiet.....

Dallas GEP 23:05 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
JC....I mean 6680 is better!!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 23:02 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
One other thing you guys could do if you wnated is to use smaller possie sizes when entering in this environment. For example: Eur/GBP techically is a decent long from here but 6780 area of course is better. If you normally take 10 lots, then you COULD take 5 here at .6715 for example

van revdax 22:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies //Great calls with mathematical accuracy. Estonia must have had a good education system.

SF MRZ 22:58 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ noise range 1.2239, 1.2169 - 1.2127, 1.2057

Syd 22:52 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Aud 7130 now opens up target of 7050/70 low on Aug 13

Philadelphia caba 22:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Thanks for replay, I'm new in Forex..so sometimes that questions..

Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
OK guys need to watch eur/chf.....If eur/chf shorts then usd/chf can short at the SAME time that EUR/USD shorts which according to some people CAN'T happen

van revdax 22:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 22:36 GMT//not quite sure. i am enjoying the sighting of big-frontal development girls here in BC more than the chart of $/JY.

QC WC 22:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, how abt USd/Yen, would it move in same direction?

van revdax 22:31 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 22:30 GMT //up to the individual traders/pip-raiders or rapists.

Van Revdax 22:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Forget about the funnymentals
===========================

Van Revdax 18:12 GMT August 19, 2004
Today's Special Question//Is US$ going to explode (up)while I am on holiday in the beautiful province of British Columbia in Canada?

What do *you* think?

QC WC 22:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, just take profit? You won't reverse?

Dallas GEP 22:29 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
OK this is the difficulty I see at this time from a daytrader's standpoint. Obviuolsy it is better generally to go with the trend (USD long). However at these levels, to go long usd you are betting that we will have enough continuation to break euro's support level of 1.2130, USD/CHF resistance @ 1.2710 etc., USD/CAD resistance @ 1.3090 etc. etc.

If you take USD short possies then you are betting on reversals that HAVEn'y happened YET. So I would suggest if you go SHORT USD you take tight stops say 20 pips or so or IF you so LONG usd your stops would need to be WIDER to allow for at least some retracement.

BEST option IMO right now MAY be to just wait for confirmations IF you can get them.

Philadelphia caba 22:29 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Good evening!
s/l for short EUR/USD?

British Columbia of socialist Canada revdax 22:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Today's Special(August 24)//Taking profit on your long $/CHF positioin, if you had any.....

Dallas GEP 22:12 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Well I am putting my stops on CAD shorts ABOVE 1.3110

Syd 22:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Stops eyed below 1.2130 support on Euro

GA TJ 22:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Ooops
thin market not then market.

GA TJ 22:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, My stuff says that Swissy should be drifting down for the last couple of hours. But the best it can do is sideways. Am wondering if the big boys know something that I don't or is this the results of a then market.
This does make trading a little tough because the entry points are becoming sparse.

LAX-LGB SNP 22:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
expecting a bounce since
eurjpy has broken past TL coming off Jun28 and resting on secondary TL coming off Apr5 - downside is as wide as 130
gbpjpy is resting above TL coming off Mar31 and Jun24 - downside doesn't stop till 195

LAX-LGB SNP 21:56 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
if gbpusd can stay above 1.8086, there are chances that a mid-198 gbpjpy bounce might assist her till 1.82 considering that gbpchf punched right past 2.277x and eurgbp failed ahead of 0.68

Dallas GEP 21:55 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi Razvan!!! Well guys as one who mainly does reversals. I have technically seen several spots where we SHOULD have had some reversals but DID NOT. That COULD mean this USD buying trend WILL continue. As I posted earlier I lost out on some Euro longs and usd/chf shorts. My cad shorts are still in and as an indicator if THEY long significantly then USD IMO will confirm as an across the board LONG.

Bucharest Razvan 21:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, having been through a margin call and all that, my trading has definitely changed.. i'm definitely NOT trading guesses and hunches anymore.. strict (as in i hired a guy to beat me up if i stray from the Rules :) ) rules against overleveraging, and most importantly, i think, improving the odds by looking at several confirmations before entering a possie.. i.e. i was aching to short the eur all through last week, but my strategy said to short 1.2250, and I got filled today.. can't complain, but an open position is an open position, so i won't brag either :)

hope all's well with the great folks i met here..

Bucharest Razvan 21:43 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys, remember me? :) how's everyone?

Mississauga marshi 21:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
You, me (and a lot of other people) are bucking the trend right now. I got the feeling it's going to be a long night, or week or month...

Barcelona Tony 21:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Wonder why "forever long" euro mates (namely saloniko nk and EU Zorro) will say of this dump .... not sure they will be adding too much here on their way to ???1.40????

Brampton AAR 21:34 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello traders,
Posting for the first time in this forum and hopefully for a long time to come. I am short USDCHF at 1.2682. Any thoughts on short term direction will be appreciated. tia, GL GT

Dallas GEP 21:33 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what...I am taking all orders OUT for now. See what new session brings

SF MRZ 21:13 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, range trade Eur/$ for rest of week. Setup Friday for continue down bias. Trade below 1.2113 triggers 3 month bias towards downside, but monthly 1.1962 downside bias seams far away. And so, Sept might be the last down month setup for an up October.

GA TJ 21:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
My irrational psychotic trading method has EUR/GBP as SOR. It should go up some but that would be a Short entry. But then WTF do I know.
My Long Loonie is still barely alive. Missed Stop by 4 pips. Swissy is making a Statement. I am up 256 and gaining. That double/triple bottom going back to the first of the year in the 1.2100 area looks like it may be for real. Confirmation is in the 1.3200 area. Its not going to happen this week but maybe by year end.

Mississauga marshi 21:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn
It's now on my list. I just need a few good Forex days first

Tallinn viies 21:05 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Mississauga marshi 20:45 GMT - you must come to Tallinn. last year over 3 million tourist vistied Estonia.
it is 2 times more we have citizens, under 1,5 million people

Mississauga marshi 20:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Just did a photo tour of Tallinn (never heard of it), it looks beautiful. I grew up with some kids from Estonia but I didn't know too much about it.

Dallas GEP 20:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hmmm..well if I see .6710 ask I will go long then on EUR/GBP

Quebec Swap 20:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT

I'd long EUR/GBP at present levels. It looks great. But I'm already in EUR/USD.

Mississauga marshi 20:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP
I'd go long but only to about .6735...

Dallas GEP 20:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Told a very good friend of mine to close his NZD/USD short around .6690 because I didn't think it was going anywhere. It has ONLY shorted 70 PIPS since then!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
OK guys, how about some views on EUR/GBP....I say .6710 is a great long....but I am not exactly hitting on all 12 cylinders today so what is your view???

Tallinn viies 20:31 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 20:26 GMT - slow stochastic > exp mov av > bollinger band > knowledge that this is zero sum game - if I loose then you win or anyone else

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
No Tim, I took no offense at all. FACTS are FACTS tho, so far today my trading SUCKS....no way around it...but that can happen at times when you trade reversals.

NYC PCM 20:26 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies
EUR/USD
I agree with adding to shorts in that area.

What type of trading analysis do you use?

Tallinn viies 20:22 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
good evening boyz n galz :)
how are you doing? hope you all fine.
good to see level like this. sadly I closed half of my shorts infront of 1,2180/85 level.
nevermind, I still have half short on bucks on account :)
plan to sell half of the position I closed earlier near 1,2170/75 area. target tommorow will be 1,2015/25. too far? not right now ...
good luck all

wisconsin tim 20:15 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
gep, no offence intended and wasn't directed solely at you.

When your ailing sometimes the only thing you need is a little rest

NYC PCM 20:04 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD

I didn't expect quite such a violent one day drop, but it's good for my short position (except no opportunity to add to it).

Anyway if we end the day somewhere near this zone, the cycle low due at end of month is now projecting to around 1.1871.

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Well Tim, just because you strike out on a few, it shouldn't deter you from trying to make something happen. Personally, Most days quite frankly are pretty good, TODAY is not. But it isn't over yet!!! LOL

wisconsin tim 19:58 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
today hasn't been a day to fade the price action, but i guess if you load up on it enough you're bound to get one

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Order to sell usd/chf @ 1.2710...target 1.2640...stop 1.2743

Mississauga marshi 19:48 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I just went short USD/CAD @ 1.3078 for the night, any comments?

Quebec Swap 19:46 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Still long Eur/Usd. I expect for some retracement more towards European time.

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Stop on USD/CAD shorts is 1.3096. 1.2700 USD/CHF and 1.2135 EUR?USD are TECHNICALLY good possies SHORT and LONG but wait NO confirmation yet.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I have to apologize to the members of this Forum for my earlier outburst it is not like me to do that at all. Eur/usd pair has hit my target support at 1.2130 for now. With intraday indicators in O/S area a bounce is imminent but not confirmed yet. This will help a lot to turn the midterm indicators completely bearish. For intraday positions it is definitely sell on bounces for this pair and that is what I will do. I will be back with more details as we see this pair unfold for what promises to be a good September month coming up IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 19:18 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
OK, this is not a good day!!! Closed out of EUR/USD longs and USD/CHF shorts. USD/CAD shorts still working.

Ltn th 19:02 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
The maths would be much easier if we didnt have weekends and public holidays. But mabee the volatility compensates G!

Gold Coast martin 18:49 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 18:38 GMT August 23, 2004
HE!HE!,,,, cycle analysis is used but it is only small part of trading system....iam happy just to post what my system says...has got a time frame prediction imperfection as have all systems but apart from that it is consistent....g/t

Ltn th 18:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Martin. Congrats again. Numbers looking closer to model which makes your 7020 approachable in next week hopefully with 120 pips bounce for a day or 2. Are you using neural + cycle analysis or just funnymentals as you had make us believe earlier?

Bangkok bkk 18:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 18:12 GMT August 23, 2004

Accually they already bought USD against other pairs(not against Euro) today(NY session)

I am a bit TOO LATE to know this. Anyway I already long USD against those currency pairs too.(I didn't get a cheeper level)

Quebec Swap 18:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Going long Eur/Usd at present levels. this past 10 min drop looks interesting.

wisconsin tim 18:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
locking in +20 lowering tp
gt's

wisconsin tim 16:50 GMT August 23, 2004
selling gbp/usd here stops above 1.8190 tp 1.8000

hk ab 18:12 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
maybe the summer ends a bit earlier than expected.

hk ab 18:12 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
bkk// you meant your A.S. will go with the flow tomorrow to long USD right? GL and GT!
Don't worry about my gbp long small one.
The bigger one (another pair) is on the run....

Gold Coast martin 18:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 18:04 GMT August 23, 2004
One thing i agree with you on is that in a largely volatile summer market such as this a low-leverage trading account is a good move.On the other stuff time will tell ....g/t

Calabash TarHeel 18:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Congratulations. You have almost singlehandedly got the audusd a good 200 pips below where it would otherwise have been over the last few months. Many thanks as this has afforded good trading moves.

Ditto here.
Ideed It has!

Ltn th 18:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
oops. I got carried away 1000 to 1600.

Ltn th 18:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
martin 17:59 // Hope you are right. Much I like the idea of 2000 to 2600 pips for christmass.

Ltn th 18:04 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 16:56 GMT August 23, 2004
The corelation between the aud/usd and nzd/usd pairs is totally out of equilibrium...grear opportunity to short nzd .....g/t

Agree with the first bit but you dont really expect any one to believe the last.
Congratulations. You have almost singlehandedly got the audusd a good 200 pips below where it would otherwise have been over the last few months. Many thanks as this has afforded good trading moves.
A problem is that your influence seems to be waning. The cycles seem distorted and it looks as if audusd is already trying to establish a bottom around 7143 this week before major sustained amble up the mountain.
I have already entered in a low leverage a/c and hope to build tomorrow.

Gold Coast martin 18:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
THAT SHOULD READ :With NO significant resistance levels in between....

GA TJ 17:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Going to lock in 30 Pips on USDCAD. Stop moved to 1.3060. Have had second thoughts about closing if new high not made. Just going with the Stop for now. Swissing Long from 1.2440 last Friday have moved Stop to 1.2630. Locked in 190 Pips. Stepping away for a while so will se what happens later. GT to all

Gold Coast martin 17:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
,,,Crucial level for aud is 7145...should this be breached next stop is 7020 with significant resistance levels in-between...g/t

Calabash TarHeel 17:57 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 17:45 GMT August 23, 2004

Anyone that went to Happy Appy, Carolina, and busted for drinking in OD has to be OK with me. Have a cousin in Carrelton. Have enjoyed my stays there, several memorable evenings in Atlanta.

Take Care

Bangkok bkk 17:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 16:03 GMT August 23, 2004

ab// Just came by and saw your post.

fwiw.....my lovely big A.S. are going to step in to the fx market tomorrow.......Short USD against other major pairs is a bit very risky this week. It's better to go long USD(on dip, of course) against other major pairs this week. Especially.....(refer to your post at 16.03GMT).....

For some reasons, I can not say much about this. I have to go now.

GL.>.

GA TJ 17:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel

Yes, Atlanta. Undergrad at App State, MBA from UNC. Massive amounts of Beer on OD. Haven't been back to Myrtle Beach since the last time I got busted for drinking on the beach. Got to be on a first name basis with the judge.

Calabash TarHeel 17:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 17:28 GMT August 23, 2004
Fwiw: I respect the info you post and am wondering if you are from the state of Ga.?
Take Care & Good Luck

GA TJ 17:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 17:22 GMT August 23, 2004
GA TJ 17:20 GMT August 23, 2004

Indeed. But how much stress can there be in Phantom Trades?

Guayaquil mhr 17:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi, can anybody confirm the Head & Shoulder on the daily Eur/$....if it is so then the current behaviour makes sense, dollar would be bullish until neck line its hit, Where is the neckline 1,2000 ??
BTW good call GEP, GL-GT

GA TJ 17:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:59 GMT August 23, 2004

GEP, FWIW my stuff is starting to show little signs of strength on the euro and weakness on the Swissy. Have just tightened the Stops on Swissy long from last friday.

Same with my USDCAD posi from this morning. Failure to make a new high in the next thirty minutes and I will close posi if not stopped

Calabash TarHeel 17:22 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 17:20 GMT August 23, 2004

It would seem Raton's trades are tanking again.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
There is no answer to your childish crap besides I was talking to GEP (RAT) I mean Raton and I have your pussie right here. I put my comments here in this FF like GEP for years where is your contribution besides negative crap. I guess it is better to jump on others comments then put your cards on the table chicken sh***. Your are not even worth the bother to answer but this time I could not help myself sorry Jay for the outburst I will step away now so this wont take anymore space here. GL GT

GA TJ 17:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 17:07 GMT August 23, 2004
What a bunch of pussies. The minute a pro comes in and corrects or questions, you people start to talk about "restless natives". Give me a break. The fact is we just see right through some of the BS that is posted here.

Totally agree with Boca.
I see right through your crap.

Gold Coast martin 17:19 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 17:07 GMT August 23, 2004
By a pro are you reffering to robots who work at dealing desks for major banks...get real pal....if you want to say something say something constructive other wise continue to regurgitate forex info like a pro...g/t

sf mike 17:12 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP I don't know what these guys are telling you. What I'm telling you is that your subconscious mind may be reading it differently. You mind made you make the typo.

Boca Raton 17:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
What a bunch of pussies. The minute a pro comes in and corrects or questions, you people start to talk about "restless natives". Give me a break. The fact is we just see right through some of the BS that is posted here.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:02 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP sounds like the natives are restless LOL. Take care buddy. ;-)

Dallas GEP 16:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
1.2190 would be the long on the euro. I am so confused now, I think I will just stop posting for a while. Appreciate all the help. LOL Later

Dallas GEP 16:57 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I am glad I have you guys to correct me!!! YES 1.3070 is the short on CAD but that looks to be a bad add presently. 1.3090-1.3100 is the real resistance on this apparently.

hk ab 16:57 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
long some aud/nzd 1.0755.

Gold Coast martin 16:56 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
The corelation between the aud/usd and nzd/usd pairs is totally out of equilibrium...grear opportunity to short nzd .....g/t

Spookville PipPolice 16:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Obviously he meant 1.2190, seriously you need to relax dude(s).

nyc jk 16:53 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
guys you act surprised, buying below the low and selling above the high are routine occurances here on the FF.

sf mike 16:52 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP that could be a subconscious message. You should by at 1.2090.

hk ab 16:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nk// in eur/jpy yet?

wisconsin tim 16:50 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
selling gbp/usd here stops above 1.8190 tp 1.8000

gt's

GER ad 16:49 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza 16:45,
Last time on Aug 06

houston st 16:48 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- please let me know which broker you are using...I also want to buy 100 pips under my current platform...thanks in advance.

Dallas GEP 16:47 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
YEP

Gaza Ibiza 16:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur traded 1.2090?

Dallas GEP 16:44 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Took some more lots short on USD/CAD @ 1.3070. Got some EUR/USD long at 1.2090 now as well.

In an environment where you are looking for reversals and they are not yet confirmed, it is better to take smaller lot sizes if you are going to intiate those possies. Of course the alternative would be to wait for confirmations but lately in this market reversals have been occcuring PRIOR to confirmations.

saloniko 2004 nk 16:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Euro and E/J..

I think is a Good risk to Buy here and risk few pips..


GL
nk

hk ab 16:33 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
QDN=0......

hk ab 16:26 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
McTeer on CNBC.

GER ad 16:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY long,
closed 1/2 at 133.52 and moved S/L for the rest at cost.

censored 16:21 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone use automated trading on the censored system? How do you like it?

macd 16:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone use the macd to trade? I am trying to figure if 1 hour or 2 hour is more profitable..

hk ab 16:03 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nk// I am sidelined after the eur roller coaster.
gbp long is still there planning to add a little lower.

and waiting dlr/jpy to short. (sorry for against your view).

saloniko 2004 nk 15:47 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ab..

Think will see a good bounch here ,,,

2lows @ once ??

nk

GER ad 15:47 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY at 133.37 S/L under figure

saloniko 2004 nk 15:44 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

hk ab..how are u?

nk

hk ab 15:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
When RBNZ opens their big mouth, it will be time for the nzd to join the teams.....

nk// any view on eur/jpy?
a pal sees eur/jpy 126 by Sept 6th....

hk ab 15:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// mkt could short dowj too heavy and now needs dlr to cover their shorts....

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
TJ, I don't trade that alot anymore because it is like gbp/jpy. If it gets moving the wromg way you are talking about a couple hundred pips !!!

wisconsin tim 15:34 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:15 GMT August 23, 2004

baaaa .... baaaa

wisconsin tim 15:33 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
baaa

GA TJ 15:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, since you got me to follow the EURAUD a few months ago it is your fault that I am about to long it as soon as confirmation is flashed. If I lose money I will send you a bill. If entered it will be my first trade of this pair

sarasota jf 15:24 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
$yen stops higher u may get yr level in a day or so -ab

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:19 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW pivot support for eur/usd is around 1.2264, 2219 and 2162 with pivot resistance around 1.2321, 2366, 2423 and 2468. Although intraday indicators are in O/S area there is still no long signal for these pair just yet. IMHO. GL GT

Tallinn viies 15:17 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
good evening
here at 1,2194 closed half of my short euro.
reselling it near 1,2260/70 area.
ok, leaving now.
thnks for everything.
cu after nyc close

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:15 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
This USD market, if speaking of short term of 1 week or less is moved by pure hype, fear and gutless wonders who panic at the impact of a bird dropping. It's no wonder that the USD is recouping the hype losses of a week and 2 weeks ago. The FX market is unpredictable yet everyone seems to try invane to predict it. No wonder we see predictions below with 400 and 500 pip spreads from low to high! Any bafoon can do that. Out of here for another week, had to go come inside to use the bathroom so I flipped on the charts to see the array of garbage patterns.

GA TJ 15:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT August 23, 2004
Ok that 1.3040 entry short on USD/CAD looks a little premature...

If the only thing in our life that is premature is FX then we will be happy men. Picked the the wrong Yen horse this morning. Should have gone with EURJPY. That stinks. Still have Swissy from last Friday. Am pleaseantly surprised that no substantial retrace has happen to stop out the posi. I still expect it to happen at any time now.

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF short also for that matter

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok that 1.3040 entry short on USD/CAD looks a little premature...

PAR 15:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Big GBP options at 1.8100 and 1.8000 being protected.

GA TJ 15:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 13:07 GMT August 23, 2004
Long Loonie at 30. Should long unless that wacky bird decides to fly south for the summer

GA TJ 14:10 GMT August 23, 2004
Dallas GEP 14:01 GMT August 23, 2004
1.3045 USD/CAD
I am thinking that if it gets to 1.3050 then it should be good to get 1.3080 +. That is if I don't get stopped first on my long.



Stops now at B/E. Will consider TP at 1.3100.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. Eur/usd has hit the major support I was commenting about and now with intraday indicators in O/S area there might be a bounce from here. I believe that this move has almost made the mid term indicators turn bearish and the long term is turning although no bearish confirmation yet there either. We are still in the daily pennant range so far so no control over this pair by the bears or bulls just yet IMHO. No back to my vacations. ;-) GL GT
Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:28 GMT August 20, 2004
Nice call Qindex next major support in my radar for eur/usd is around 1.2200-10 and 1.2120-30, which would be the target set for now as intraday indicators unwind IMHO. GL GT

hk ab 15:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// A fight between elephant and jap sans?

Van jv 15:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
From Richard Russell.....any comment
I'll tell you the truth. My thoughts on the dollar are very mixed. The obvious (and this is the way almost everybody is thinking) is that the dollar would come apart in a recession.

But there's another possibility. The enormous total U.S. debt is denominated in dollars. If the U.S. goes into recession, there could be a panic to accumulate dollars in order to stay solvent. This could upset the plans of the dollar bears.

hk ab 15:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
PAR// can't deny it... It's me.....

PAR 15:00 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Who keeps buying GBP ?

wigan qw 14:56 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hi guys where is the eurusd heading

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks AB, I am not going to give it much room

wisconsin tim 14:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
alim, yeah i thought 2137 was good close, o well

hk ab 14:52 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP// be careful with dlr/chf... unusual

Sydney Alimin 14:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
man, i am eating my hat now, closed euro short position too early!

Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
IN now on USD/CHF short and USD/CAD short

hk ab 14:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
gold 408.9....

ldn// most of your cloud got cleared.

hk ab 14:43 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
don't tell me all those "Fridays" move will be revenged within one single day.....

hk ab 14:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf//honestly, didn't expect so much south today....
cut the eur b/e now sidelined.

sarasota jf 14:39 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:36 GMT August 23, 2004
yes todays move is fine - but what positions do people want for tom - u gotto allow for that movement as well

hk ab 14:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// can understand your say "tomorrow move is impt".

IST Sez 14:32 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hi

GA TJ 14:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:01 GMT August 23, 2004
1.3045 USD/CAD

I am thinking that if it gets to 1.3050 then it should be good to get 1.3080 +. That is if I don't get stopped first on my long.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 14:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
My orders
Currency 08/23/04 10:05 Short Long
EURUSD 1.2526 1.2182
USDJPY 110.90 107.90
GBPUSD 1.8538 1.8082
USDCHF 1.2628 1.2250
EURCHF 1.5450 1.5270
AUDUSD 0.7356 0.7107
USDCAD 1.3145 1.2832
NZDUSD 0.6837 0.6570
EURGBP 0.6805 0.6682
EURJPY 137.13 133.12
GBPJPY 203.25 197.35
CHFJPY 89.27 86.53
GBPCHF 2.3019 2.2531
EURAUD 1.7310 1.6856
EURCAD 1.6233 1.5842
AUDCAD 0.9522 0.9249
AUDJPY 80.36 77.70

wisconsin tim 14:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
exiting all signals from this morning and remaining flat, see page for more details.

gt's everyone

Trade Results

Dallas GEP 14:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
1.3045 USD/CAD

Dallas GEP 14:00 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
1.2620 on usd/chf and 1.3045 are both good shorts IMO

Dallas GEP 13:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Well TJ, I think that 109.70 short could work

GA TJ 13:58 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Crap USDJPY stopped at B/E. No harm no foul.

NYC PCM 13:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

I think we have or are close to completing wave 5 of big wave 1 down from the 17th.

So I figure we've got some kind of bounce coming, but with most cycles pointing down it may not be significant.

My strategy is to add a short postion on a swing trade on this bounce and hold it into the cycle low due on the 30th. Cover there and then wait for the bounce out of that to add to my long term short position. I plan on slowly building the long term short on cyclical bounces and then hold the total all the way down into the mid-November lows.

hk ab 13:44 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy looks so cool....

Los Angeles ss 13:44 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Where is Raden Mas????

Roumeli anka 13:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Athens 2004, medals :
http://www.athens2004.com/en/OlympicMedals/medals

hk ab 13:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
SAR.

hk ab 13:26 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
s/l 1.2193.

hk ab 13:26 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
done...

hk ab 13:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
small limit buy eur 1.2230.

Los Angeles ss 13:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone thoughts on cable for the rest of the morning?

hk ab 13:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// thanks.

Dallas GEP 13:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Greek man won a gold medal in gymnastics on the rings BTW.

GA TJ 13:19 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Moved Stop to B/E on USDJPY Short at 55. If it is going to go it needs to do so soon.

GA TJ 13:16 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 13:07 GMT August 23, 2004

ROTFLMAO. You are are one demented individual.

sar jf 13:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ab - i think .6822 can be touched - but on the day 85 level was solid - needs little more time to rotate back up- eur surprised me in downside today thought wud hold little higher but thats what happens in an unwinding mkt - also its not so important todays movement but where we will continue tomorrow - gl

hk ab 13:11 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Alimin// Simple....
On some Fridays, USD were sold heavy by spect on bad news (quite exaggerated)....
Aud was the one move the most little, so does it now.

hk ab 13:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// do you think eur/gbp has finished its north mission? or one more thrust to .6825?

Sydney Alimin 13:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
amazing, aussie is still hanging there, euro and cable have dropped..maybe it is next

GER ad 13:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Cable,
0.6785 in EUR/GBP was this morning once again rejected so we got some correction to 0.6735 and because this Cable a little stronger on crosses (especially GBP/CHF but still not a clear direction). The inability to go through 0.6785 pushes also EUR/USD lower (already under pressure because EUR/JPY-correction in JPY crosses). At this moment 1.2235, 1.8160, 1.26.../ 109.45 is still not clear for me where are we going so I am playing safe: just looking...
Maybe I will sell some spike in crosses.

Gold Coast martin 13:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Friction destroys equilibrium....anywayhere is something that totally destroys equilibrium but it is not friction:
"In another setback to the Greek olympic team,the Greek Leap-frogging olympic team got disqualified today for jumping leapfrog too low!"...there was no drug testing to enforce the disqualification!.....g/t

GA TJ 13:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Long Loonie at 30. Should long unless that wacky bird decides to fly south for the summer

Sydney Alimin 13:04 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Goes (NL) B747 12:51 GMT August 23, 2004

hi too! i closed my euro short position too early about 45 minutes ago after coming back from a meeting and now i am crying for it! blah...
i dont hold anything at the moment....
thinking of trading gold at the moment, but will see

sar jf 12:58 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
syd - i guess when syd becomes the fx capital of the world - you will let us all know

zhongshan boc 12:55 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
sorry,jyp on non-usd/jyp cross is very strong

hk ab 12:55 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
syd// good for yourself FIRST! Loser yell.....

NY NC 12:55 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Thnks Mom!

Livingston nh 12:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW -- Cable is on the verge of breaking its rising 200da mva - it has been here often in the past few months and held BUT This Time It's Different (he gagged) because the 21 da has crossed the 55 da - a break below this level will likely bring the swissy with it and EUR back beneath it 's 21 and 55 da support (trading in anticipation of this break may be hazardous to your wealth)

Syd 12:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
IMM data showing a rebuild of dollar shorts by the speculators (the net speculative position in EUR recovered to 49k contracts from 32k, just shy of the July peak of 56k) any positive surprise in US economic data will likely force a short covering rally to the 2200 and possibly the 2100 handle in the EUR/USD.

hk ab , you have rather a big mouth for someone so small , it would be wise to keep it shut

zhongshan boc 12:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ga, jyp on usd/jyp cross is very strong

hk mom 12:53 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
aud will soon surge above .7220.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 12:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 12:41 GMT August 23, 2004
Anyone care to voice an opinion on what Cable will do. It is rare that I get both a Buy and Sell Sginal at the same time. But that is what my stuff is flashing on Cable. Interesting. Probably means that a decent move is on the horizon but which way.//
I have the same...
It's a conflict


Los Angeles ss 12:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
TJ-- Not for sure in the short term, but if she gives a sustained break of 1.8130 down, down, down.

Goes (NL) B747 12:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon Alimin,

How are you ???

do you mind to share with me your EUR/USD & USD/JPY positions & would be positions ???


tia & gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 12:50 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I think the euro hit the low for the day

Goes (NL) B747 12:48 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 12:41 GMT August 23, 2004

"The Queen Is Dead"

gt

GA TJ 12:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone care to voice an opinion on what Cable will do. It is rare that I get both a Buy and Sell Sginal at the same time. But that is what my stuff is flashing on Cable. Interesting. Probably means that a decent move is on the horizon but which way.

GA TJ 12:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Short USDJPY Stop 109.65

Loonie looks like it might be trying to start a run north. But since this pair is nuts will wait a little longer for lots of confirmation

NYC PCM 12:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney almin

If I'm right the answer is "no". In fact I'd say it peaked Friday and is now embarking on the next leg down.

Sydney Alimin 12:13 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 12:05 GMT August 23, 2004

thanks mate, lately i am interested in trading gold and see if i can correlate my forex trading with gold

if i dont get it wrong, does it mean that gold can still go up till 427 area which is end of march/early april high before a move down can be expected?

NYC PCM 12:05 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney almin

Should add that I haven't done a cyclical analysis of gold, so my opinion is less reliable (in my view) than anything I post conerning EUR/USD.

I need to duplicate the work I've done on EUR/USD for other mkts. The thing is I'm really trying to decide if I want to kick my trading up to next level (get an office and empolyee to do some fo the laborious stuff), or just stick to the easy going life style of working from home. It's the big toss up between more money or fre time and fun.

NYC PCM 11:56 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney almin

Below is my post from the weekend on gold ( and yes I think there's correlation with the Euro):

Gold

the more I look at the gold, silver, or any of the gold/silver mining companies charts the more they look dangerously bearish to me with what looks like an imminent steep drop coming.

They've all been moving up in shallow channels from the May low (a bearish chart pattern) and they're now all probing the upper boundary of the channel with bearish divergences on MACD (looking at daily charts).

So either:
1) They burst through the top of the channels in short order here and blow away the divergences, or
2) The more likely scenario - they begin to drop in a 3rd wave dwon from end of March/beginning of april highs.

hk ab 11:53 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
If 110.30 can't be reached, will do it at 110.

hk ab 11:49 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
sorry, should be "ldn" and "syd" in City....

Quebec Swap 11:48 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Got out of my long Usd/Jpy

hk ab 11:48 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
syd// you know exactly what I AM TALKING about if you check the archive with the initials "ldn" and "syd".

GL and GT.

I rather like to keep silent so that the QDN can be kept at low level ;)

GA TJ 11:35 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 10:46 GMT August 23, 2004
hk ab 10:42 GMT August 23, 2004
..just out of curiosity....what levels are you waiting for the usd/jpy pait to short? tia

I will Short this pair at the first sign of weakness in the currrent area. It might have some ups left in it but I think it will be limited.

syd 11:29 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab may I ask what you are talking about

Sydney Alimin 11:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM: where do you see gold will go from here? any correlation with euro?

Lugano,CH franco 11:03 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
thanks viies!

hk ab 10:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nt// understood ;)

hong kong nt 10:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
AB -- enough for me after some ~15% rebound, guess time to be not too greedy, guess AUD may follow NZD in a similar fashion..

hk ab 10:47 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
martin 110.30.

Gold Coast martin 10:46 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 10:42 GMT August 23, 2004
..just out of curiosity....what levels are you waiting for the usd/jpy pait to short? tia

hk ab 10:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nt// you turned bearish to aud?

syd//what HAPPENED was someone overwhelmingly expressed his "anti-US" tones in every of his posts. Check the archive and we could almost do a literature search on "him".

GL.... waiting dlr/jpy levels to SHORT!

Global-View 10:35 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd (and others), trust that we are here and working behind the scenes to keep our forums flowing smoothly. Note how the Woinderland references have been removed.

Gold Coast martin 10:32 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
..."man who feels invincible stays invisible"...source:me......g/t

syd 10:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Many will not post here if they get constantly ribbed, every post is of use not just those who think they are gods gift to FX.

ln 10:21 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:12 GMT. what does WTF mean? Is this a technical forex term?

Bris TW 10:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 06:41 GMT August 20, 2004
Yes Dr Q this barrier seems tough to overcome and with little data today euro will fall if it doesnt break 1.2385.

Im short from 1.2378 stop 1.2398.


Took profit at 1.2260. Will sell again soon.

Bangkok bkk 10:09 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Exited long @ 0.7207

Tallinn viies 10:02 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
1,2255 reached. here my 99% money making promise expires.

probably we will see lower and lower within next 48 hours but minimum correction levels seen.

Tallinn viies 09:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
syd 09:40 GMT - yes I know,
I prepared for my ACI exams using his books BUT as I said I dont care.

I do better

syd 09:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies he is very well respected in the FX world check out his books. FWIW

chennai kj 09:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nyc pcm,

tks..i am following elliots wave in sterling with added confirmations frm moving averages, volatality index and cci
and i trade only in sterling

Tallinn viies 09:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
syd 09:32 - with all respect to Cornelius Luca I rely on my own analyses.
cant see any reason why his analyses got to be better than mine.

Gen dk 09:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

syd 09:32 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies yes you may be right there
The dollar mounted a strong and unexpected rally on Friday versus the European currencies, but managed only to salvage losses made against the yen. It should attempt to add to these gains on Monday.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar slumped on Friday and there should be further weakness in stock.
Below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 19 August 4 downtrend at 1.2273, the pair has support at 1.2215 from another Fibonacci retracement level. If the decline accelerates, then the euro/dollar will test the 1.2180 area
Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
Cornelius Luca
censored.com

hong kong nt 09:31 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
AB -- NZD 0.59 X 1.15 = 0.67..

NYC PCM 09:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
chennai kj

Hi. I'm really only using Elliott Waves as a kind of "fine tuning/confirmation" kind of tool. My main tool for trading EUR/USD is Hurst type cycles.

EUR/USD is the only market I trade. I Day trade it using a method based on divergences and as I said swing/position trade it using Hurst.

Tallinn viies 09:22 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
after we took out last week low Im more than happy to bring my stop buys lower.
at 1,2335/40 should be enough...
cu near 1,2230

chennai kj 09:21 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
nyc pcm,

Hi, u seem to be following elliots wave...are u tracking that in sterling as well?

Dallas GEP 09:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp/jpy long from 199.10 from last week at 199.05

NYC PCM 09:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

However in a wave 5 down now so we may see some retrace or consolidation Tuesday/ Wednesday before next leg down.

After that the next wave dwon should be quite precipitous.

NYC PCM 09:11 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Up 100 pips on original short position for the moment. With a couple of the smaller cycles due to make lows next end of week/beginning of next week we can expect more downside over next few days.

Just day trade scalped 15 on that last drop.

Gen dk 09:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

syd 09:03 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
South Africa rand is trending weaker on offshore banks, fund managers accumulating dollars dealers

Tallinn viies 09:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
HK Byron 08:57 - 1,2235 is the level where even I would consider take half profit. fwiw

HK Byron 08:57 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies// let's see 1.2230 at least. :)
gl & gt

Tallinn viies 08:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
we hit 1,2275.
minimum 1,2255/60 now.

Gen dk 08:35 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tallinn viies 08:32 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
this is one of those days as I call "trade with closed eyes".

you have heard it before of course.
selling euros today against dollar should give you money back 99%.
after 1,2275 traded next level is 1,2255/60...

Tallinn viies 07:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 07:38 GMT - Im short already. no need to sell under support. sell on upticks, why to sell down there?

Gold Coast martin 07:51 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 07:41 GMT August 23, 2004
A s i posted the aud has been trading on its own steam of lately.....i still expect the aud to re-discover its correlation with the euro and start to follow the euros re-discovered downward bias...as the euro falls back into the 12245-12285 trading range (as per my post of a week ago},expect the aud to find a level of 7120-7180 for the reat of this week.....Today has given a little indication that the aud is starting to follow the euro....g/t

Swidnica/Poland profi-forex 07:50 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
[b]23.08.2004 (3:08am US Time)[/b]

[b]Today`s data:[/b]

08:30 CAD Retail Sales m/m (Jun) prev. 0.5% for. 0.1%

08:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos m/m (Jun) prev. 1.4% for. 0.3%

CAD BoC Dep Gov Longworth speaks on Monetary Policy

[b]USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.27)[/b] SUPPORT AT 108.80 HOLD. TODAY WE EXPECT BOUNCE TO 109.70/110.00 REGION. ONLY BREAK 110.70 REGION WILL CHNGE IMAGE ON THIS MARKET ON POSITIVE FOR USD.

[b]EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2294)[/b] IN LAST WEEK BULLS DIDN`T BREAK VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.2395 REGION. AT FRIDAY EUR WEAKED TO 1.2280 REGION. AT THIS REGION SUPPORT HOLDS WHAT COULD SUGGEST POSIBILITY TO TEST ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. IF WE BREAK 1.2280 WE COULD SEE FALL TO 1.2250 AND EVEN 1.2200 REGION

[b]USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2525)[/b] RESISTANCES: 1.2575 AND 1.2650. SUPPORT 1.2480 AND 1.2400.

[b]GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8165)[/b] SUPPORTS: 1.8120 AND 1.8080. RESISTANCES: 1.8250 AND 1.8350.

chennai kj 07:46 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
as long as sterling doesn't take out 1.8190...the chances are it is going to go below 1.8140 shortly...else it might take more time to go below 1.8140...i am terribly bearish sterling

hk ab 07:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
martin, the aud is reluctant....being spoiled...

hk ab 07:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone mind to suggest short levels for dlr/jpy?
I hope to see 110.30.

Warsaw mach 07:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD trading below one year uptrend line. If we menage to close below that line we may see drop to 1.75. On the way down one must watch 1.81 and 1.80 levels. In my opinion it's better to wait till we see daily close below that levels before going short.

Gold Coast martin 07:40 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 07:37 GMT August 23, 2004
Always here AB,....

Surabaya Nunu 07:39 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I have buy gbp/usd @1.8177, what do you think about it???

hk ab 07:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
viies, are you going to sell stops below 1.2280?

hk ab 07:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Martin, there?

Los Angeles ss 07:32 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have a take on GBP/USD today? Thoughts are appreciated.

Bangkok bkk 07:11 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Just took small long AUD/USD here @ 0.7220 tight s/l is needed.

Tallinn viies 07:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
short euro still prefered strategy. even suggest to add short positions near 1,2330. all the way up to 1,2390/95 is basically sell area. stop over last week high.
first trigger for deeper move down is 1,2280/85. breaking this level gives bears more power to chase new stops all the way down to 1,2235 > 1,2180 and finally even 1,2130 is not too far away during the week.
have a nice week.
lets make money now :)

hk mom 07:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
buy more aud .7220 on dips!!! I trust ldn.

hk ab 07:03 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
did dlr index make a key-day-reversal as well on Fri?

MONACO OGA 06:42 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 23/08
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2305), 60 pips lower than Friday opening. The USD regained ground against majors excepted JPY and commodity currencies in a rather lacklustre market and with no major economic data being released. It is probable that the ending of the Nadjaf battle has helped the USD recover, as Oil and gold retreated from highs ($49.30 and $414). The market still consolidates inside 1,2210-1,2380. Overnight, the range was 1,2290-1,2317). Our intraday strategy remains the same as the days before : EUR's rally seems to be exhausting ahead of last month's 1,2460 resistance and we'll be looking to play the range and sell 1,2330 and 1,2390 for a break of 1,2280 (target 1,2210). We believe the USD is being defended and kept from falling further ahead of the US presidential elections. A line in the sand seems to have been drawn at 1,2400. Our range trading strategy since last spring is still valid for the time being, with a 1,1950-1,2525 range. However, chances are good that things change in September, so we'll closely monitor any break on both sides.

Data out today:

German import prices July -0,1% against +0,3% expected 06.00 GMT
CAN retail sales June expected 0,3% 12.30 GMT
OPEC annual report and press conference 13.00 GMT

Gold at 411,50, with WTI Sept at 47,58

***JPY***
USD/JPY (109,30), remained under pressure and was rejected at 109,70 on active JPY buying against USD but also against EUR and GBP. Japanese importer bids below 109 should still support the pair today while 109,80 offers first resistance level. Our medium term range trading strategy is still valid as long as we stay inside 107-112. Only a daily (weekly) close above 112 would open way to critical 115 pivotal point.
EUR/JPY currently 134,45, hedging lower and looking to test 134 and 133,25 supports. Resistance around 135,50 now.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8170), lost almost 2 full points and broke 1,82 support zone in late NY on Friday. Overnight the pair printed a new intermediary low at 1,8125, almost challenging rising support 200 period weighted moving average on the daily chart. Any break of 1,81 level implies a sharp drop to at least 1,77. Nevertheless we still favour range trading inside 1,81-1,87. Resistances ahead of 1,8350.
EUR/GBP (0,6770), looking to retest 0,6785. We remain slightly bullish and looking to build up long position around 0,6740 for a 0,6810-20 target.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

hk ab 06:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
747, I think I should not be greedy and just grab some profit when gbp swims above its head on the 1.82 line.

Goes (NL) B747 06:04 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk mom 06:01 GMT August 23, 2004

good morning mom,

maybe time to buy some USD/HKD ???
maybe it will go over 7.8000...I mean, if you going long means CCY moving with your purchase than please do the same to USD/HKD...please !!! :-)

anyway, gl & gt

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all! Highly appreciated any views on Gold... TIA

IMO it have big rise potential to 415-16 area.

hk mom 06:01 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
GOOD, the aud move starts!
longed .7220!

chennai kj 06:00 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
any view on sterling ..to me it looks like sell at 1.8200?

hk ab 05:56 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
bkk// too many early bird in the markets.....
sharp sell off on aud? depends on whether Chinese wants to lose grip first/ or not.....

Bangkok bkk 05:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 05:18 GMT August 23, 2004

0.71-0.73 ? You mean it is unliklely to see the sharp sell-off on AUD/USD like we saw in Feb, 2004 ?(more than 350 pips in 3 days)

About JPY repatriate.....you know why did this happen too early?

hk ab 05:18 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
bkk//one possibility is that it will hold the range .71-73 till Sept ends.

hk ab 05:17 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
bkk// better wait to see what's going on, on aud/jpy first.

pix seems couldn't pick up last week momentum to go north....

nervous on "repatriation"?

Bangkok bkk 05:10 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ab// Any views on AUD/USD?

hk ab 05:02 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
747// my message meant your info on yen crosses seems showing up earlier than 6th Sept deadline.

GT and GL.

chinga 04:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
"Hereunder are forecasted highs and lows and suggested buy and sell points for Aug 23h, 2004 based on the trends observed on daily charts.
------------------------------------------------------------
Currency Forecated Lows Forecasted Highs Suggested buy and sell points Suggested Stops Forecasted lows and highs of this week

0 DINIW 87.90 88.50 87.00 / 90.12
1 RUD/USD 1.2250 1.2380 Buyat 1.2250 1.2195 1.2220/ 1.2450
2 GBP/USD 1.8100 1.8350 Buy at 1.8130 1.8080 1.8010/ 1.8380
3 AUD/USD 0.7190 0.7300 Buy at 0.7200 0.7150 0.7180 / 0.7350
4 USD/CHF 1.2460 1.2600 Buy USD at 1.2460 1.2410 1.2450/ 1.2670
5 USD/CAD 1.2900 1.3010 Buy CAD at 1.3000 1.3050 1.2820 / 1.3100
6 USD/JPY 108.40 109.90 Buy JPY at 109.80 110.30 108.00/ 110.30

his information is for reference only. Please keep in mind that you and you alone are responsible for your own trades and for the maintenance of stop loss entries at levels you can afford. In order to help preserve trading capital, it is suggested that when prices move in your favour by 30 points, you change your stop to a breakeven position.
My QQ number is : 30963505,. Please feel free to contact me.
Good luck to everybody!!
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.678678.com/bbs/index.asp
Yours sincerely,
Yinzi

Goes (NL) B747 04:27 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 02:38 GMT August 23, 2004

good morning ab,

please exdplain the a.m. messeage/remark ???

tia & gt

hk mom 04:05 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
buy aud .7220 looking for the .7250 crush again!

LA fxnew 03:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
200 pips is too large for 100k account. If it is mini, I think its still fine ...

well, everybody has its own strategy.

Thanks for sharing tim.

wisconsin tim 03:36 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
CA, anyhow, yes 200 pips to get 20/30 pip is a lousy risk/reward ratio

wisconsin tim 03:21 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
CA,

if it is for you then don't trade the signals. Since I am testing using EOD (H,L,C,O) there is no way I can test for stops or take profit levels on a breakout system like this.

There are other ways to manage risk than stop loss vs. tp levels. All I can tell you is in GBP/USD since 2001 using this system the max winner was 299 pips and max loser was 236 pips. And out of 429 trades only 27 where stopped out.

gl/gt's

CA Clouy 02:59 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
tim//plz correct me if i am wrong. With gbp/usd example referred in my last post, a long possie with 1.8270 entry, and stop @1.8083, 200pips s/l, is it too big for 30~40 t/p? TIA again.

hk ab 02:38 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
747, your story unfolds sooner than expected....

SF MRZ 02:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
I think today's Eur/$ trade going to be intial short and reverse to buy the dips.

SF MRZ 02:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$, if prices continue to go down looks like shorting. 1 pip at a time.zzzzzzzz

Philadelphia caba 02:08 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Good evening! Enyone short EUR/USD?

Calabash TarHeel 02:00 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Hello All. Anyone watching and have any thoughts on eur/jpy?
Tia, gl,gt

Cairo Amgad 01:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 01:30 GMT August 23, 2004

I like the simplicity of your signals, wish you luck and success

wisconsin tim 01:50 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ca cloudy, that is correct except I don't use tp's but you could.

From my testing those 2 numbers on the right (1.8384, 1.8083) are extremes that hold the day range pretty accurately across all pairs so I would probably lower tp level. Those 2 numbers are also great places to fade say 30-40 pips above s1 low/below r1 high with stops just on other side.

CA Clouy 01:39 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
tim// given the following entries:
8/20/2004 GBPUSD 1.8270 1.8107 1.8384 1.8083
a buy order is set as [email protected], s/l 1.8107, t/p 1.8384? I visited ur webpage, but still got a bit confused. TIA. Nice work!

wisconsin tim 01:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
fxnew, See web page for more details, but basically I buy break of r1 close (stop @ s1 close) and sell s1 close (stop @ r1 close)

Bangkok bkk 01:25 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 00:43 GMT August 23, 2004
bkk//so what's your suggestion today? sideline?

ab// Yes, sideline today.

hk ab 01:24 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
all depends on the japs.....

Sydney Alimin 01:23 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
any view on gold? can it keep going up all the way to 427? i have read an article on the weekend saying gold can go up to 450 by year end

LA fxnew 01:22 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
tim .. how to read your signal ie for gbp/usd?
dont quite understand what r1 and close s1...


thanks

SF MRZ 01:22 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Does it feel like Eur/$ gots some negative energy for this month?

wisconsin tim 01:18 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Current Signals for tomorrow

Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Close
8/20/2004 AUDUSD 0.7282 0.7212 0.7294 0.7184
8/20/2004 EURGBP 0.6799 0.6756 0.6805 0.6728
8/20/2004 EURUSD 1.2368 1.2285 1.2426 1.2241
8/20/2004 EURYEN 134.95 133.67 135.90 133.79
8/20/2004 GBPUSD 1.8270 1.8107 1.8384 1.8083
8/20/2004 GBPYEN 201.12 199.81 201.12 197.28
8/20/2004 NDZUSD 0.6785 0.6697 0.6803 0.6653
8/20/2004 USDCAD 1.3021 1.2905 1.3042 1.2895
8/20/2004 USDCHF 1.2552 1.2442 1.2588 1.2354
8/20/2004 USDYEN 109.55 108.50 110.10 108.55

See web page for more details

hk ab 01:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
same for dlr/jpy shorts....
so, may enter at the upper fib on dlr/jpy from 111.

hk ab 01:06 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
some gbp longs seen in c9 forum... worrisome...

hk ab 00:54 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
somone said that 1.2535 was "ultra-important" right?

Gen dk 00:52 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 00:45 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
next trade should be on dlr/jpy, find a right lvl first.

hk ab 00:43 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
bkk//so what's your suggestion today? sideline?

Charlotte,North Carolina SVI 00:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Quebec Swap 21:46 GMT August 22, 2004
Hope everyone had a nice weekend.

Went long USD/JPY. I expect some retracement. before it heads much further south. not expecting too much of a move but a few pips would do just fine


tHKS went lg too. gl gt

CA Clouy 00:41 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Cairo Amgad 00:35 GMT August 23
Amgad//r u doing intra-day trading? may i plz know why u prefer 4 hour to hourly chart? I always miss the turning points with hourly chart for intra-day. How could u handle this with even longer frame? plz take it as a question from a newbie. Also do u think we can still see 1.8118 today? TIA again. GL & GT

hk ab 00:37 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
jf// that one is for a bit longer term trade.

Cairo Amgad 00:35 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 00:28 GMT August 23, 2004

Yes, i use 1hour chart (BB(20,2,Close))
4 hour(MACD and Stochastic slow)

Gl

sar jf 00:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ab - u play agst eur/gbp movement with yr gbp view

sar jf 00:30 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
$yen profit taking day for 111.00 shorts- also residual euryen demand from friday

CA Clouy 00:28 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
ab&Amgad, thank you guys.
I closed my long possie with +2 pips. I was dissapointed but now am happy because another -30 pips loss would have been made.
Amgad, may i plz know ur setting of BB? I'm using 20/2 with close price. are u using hourly chart? TIA again. GL & GT.

Cairo Amgad 00:20 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
CA Clouy 00:14 GMT August 23, 2004

GBP/USD break friday Low and also break July Low at 1.8138
GBP/USD buy at 1.8118(lower BB on 1Hour chart) and1.8081 (June Low) S/L 1.8011(May Low)

GL GT

boston mpd004 00:16 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
correction, 2nd lowest level in a year

hk ab 00:15 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Clouy, I am one of the people buying on some dips for gbp....but right now, I am only holding 1.82 for 1 lot.
adding later.

boston mpd004 00:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
san diago/devi///thanks for your thoughts, same as mine, in at 2979 long. Lowest level in 1 year it looks like. I'll put it aside and see what happens. gl gt

CA Clouy 00:14 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Gee, gbp/usd was on roller coaster... printed new low after last friday. Where are the bulls? Any view on this pair? TIA.

San Diego Devi 00:07 GMT August 23, 2004 Reply   
Boston MP,

My 2 cents on USD/CAD is up.

 




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