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Forex Forum Archive for 08/26/2004

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Ldn Robert 23:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
USA ForexxExpert 23:26 GMT//
Ask one of the top 5 Banks.
LOL @ "ForexxExpert"

USA ForexxExpert 23:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Is there any forex expert who can proove documented audited results of forex trading? I am looking for forex trading signal providers.

KL KL 23:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP, g' morn... just ignore those children....keep it up and I am looking to short eurusd now at anything above 1.21...looks like all waiting for figures tonight...or NFP next week....any view on the jpy crosses...what are your possie now?? tia

Los Angeles ss 23:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Anyone -- is today at 2330 GMT the day for a raft of JPY data?

ICT ML 23:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC 20:19 GMT August 26, 2004
"GIPS (Global Investment Performance Standards) is more appropriate (http://www.cfainstitute.org/standards/pps/gips.html)"

Thanks much for that LINK DC.........It will be of great use on our own site. How to best and accurately present past performance has been a hot debate, and that cleared up a lot of things in a few minutes of reading the standards.

You guys have more performance graphs and charts than I'd know what to do with..LOL, but they weren't all labeled clearly (in my eyes anyway).

Syd EM 22:18 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Chris Caton, chief economist at BT Financial Group and a former Treasury official, said the Reserve Bank Australia could move after its next board meeting on September 7 rather than risk waiting until after an election, which may be as late as April.In a research note to clients yesterday, Dr Caton raised the "non-trivial possibility" of a September rate rise. The bank may "be tempted to take the medicine early" rather than wait around for an election that could be held eight months from now. Economists have largely assumed that the bank would not raise rates before an election. But in an interview with the author Stephen Bell, the Reserve Bank's
governor, Ian Macfarlane, said: "If there was a really strong case to do something we would always do it regardless."
BTFG.

Bruxville Jim 22:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Citigroup has taken longs from 1.2075. Proposed stop 1.1950, expected tgt 1.2460. They expect 55-week ma 1.2045 to hold because it's been above the line (on closing basis) SINCE APRIL 2002.

Dallas GEP 21:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW....109.10-110.30 range possible in Asia

LA fxnew 21:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gep:
what is your view on usd/jpy for today?


Thanks

LAX-LGB SNP 21:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
expecting gbpchf above 4hrly TL to break daily 50 sma soon

weekly 50 sma has sucked the steam out of usdchf much before 1.2840

audusd still trapped within last month's 0.7016-0.7048 suggests indecision but potential for move higher

gbpjpy has failed to take out rising TL @ 198.48, also closing below 197.35 ... not much to save my queen except the daily 200 sma

nyc jk 20:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I'm sorry to hear that , Swap. you still holding any long EUR? looks to me like it may have a little upside potential in it, perhaps up to 1.2170-80, assuming tomorrows data doesn't upset the apple cart.

QC Swap 20:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Closed my USD/CAD short.

QC Swap 20:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk

By the way, that average I did with Eur/Usd going long, didn't work. It screwed me over.

QC Swap 20:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I think i'm going to close my USD/CAD now.

Wien GD 20:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP: what about to long usdcad?

athens euro 20:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
10 pips 10 contracts that is mean 1000 $ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

athens euro 20:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
athens euro 19:54 GMT August 26, 2004
LA ARTOFYEN
I have short usdjpy at 109.61 aiming of very short gain at 109.51

USD/JPY now is 109.50

athens euro 20:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
write when u need.........but no rewarding posts

Chicago Irish 20:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP:My question was directed to Boca and the ONLY response I want is from Boca.Thanks.

wisconsin tim 20:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
well, i don't usually agree with the NCAA but I believe they did the right thing. It's just too bad a good (from what I have read) kid has to sit out a year before playing again.

Geneva DC 20:19 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
real auditors are bound by confidentiality too
so records can be audited anyway
besides "audited" is a misnomer
GIPS (Global Investment Performance Standards) is more appropriate (http://www.cfainstitute.org/standards/pps/gips.html)

LA ARTOFYEN 20:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Ok, now I'm pissed....The nazis at the NCAA turned down the Mike Williams back to USC request......Hopefully we can show our protest on teh field in the nation's capital on Saturday!! Urghhhh

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raton AND Irish....Yep, I am going to send an audited client financial statement to one of you YAHOO's and risk losing a million dollar account for 5K AFTER violating a confidentiality agreement with the client. THAT makes alot of sense!!!! Start posting something useful.

Van jv 20:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
athens euro ////slow down, write when U need , , forget your 2 minutes trade notes.....GL

Geneva DC 19:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
re previous post: soft landing (1.2000 - 1.2100)
1.2029 negates

Geneva DC 19:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
athens euro
paying advertisers on this forum are permitted to send update reminders

athens euro 19:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN
I have short usdjpy at 109.61 aiming of very short gain at 109.51

Gen dk 19:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA ARTOFYEN 19:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Athens Euro, It was a play from around 109.70 with stop over 109.85 for a run after the stops that everyone and their dog talked about in the am. They took them out so now it's matter of the key 109 holding the fort or if we can push above 109.85 and run some minor stops up to 110.05-10....Good luck to you and trust your methodology above all others, so long as you can fund it...If that dries up, then it's obvious you need to either find a new methodology that works for you or it's time to hang up the fx trading gloves......all the best to ya

Geneva DC 19:36 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Geneva DC 16:40 GMT August 24, 2004
1.2000 to 1.2100 = intermediate soft landing area, as to the level: GEP it (e.g. scale)


intermediate soft landing finished, mid-point (1.2050) was available, but not much less
think about it!
euro seems well "Buffett-ed" (1.2155 confirms partially, 1.2180 confirms firmly)

athens euro 19:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN
That is right especially when we look at hourly chart of that pair.
Thanks LA ARTOF YEN

GER ad 19:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
athens euro 19:23 ,
If you are a beginner, don't go now in USD/JPY. Could be expensive than $120 what you have made in EUR/USD.
This is only a friendly opinion. GL & GT

athens euro 19:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 19:15 GMT August 26, 2004
Did u mean sell USDJPY now at 109.53 aiming at 109.35?

LA ARTOFYEN 19:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Pecs,

LA ARTOFYEN 12:48 GMT August 26, 2004
Flip, just told the press that a few ticks ago...watch 109.34-40 break as we finally took out the 109.80...The real break on the day occurs below 109 in my book matey but the market is salivating today regarding stops (when don't they?) so 109.35 run is prime...A few good names popping up now infront of 40-50 so might be a little more work than previously thought. Back above 110.05 calls off the blood hounds but until then, 109.35 remains underpressure with 109.00 beckoning right behind.......gl mate


109.80-85 is no decent resistance after the the break lower...Another key is cross holding above 132.00...stop loss city below and should get usd/yen moving below 109 in a hurry....

athens euro 19:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
$/yen has gone to 109.30

athens euro 19:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
120$ in tow minutes not bad for a beginner..lol

athens euro 19:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
buy eur$ 1.2103 now profit target 1.2115 quick trade.

Pecs Andras 18:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 18:55 GMT August 26, 2004
Great post!
BTW, what is your take on dollar/yen now?

LA ARTOFYEN 18:55 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
4x-made profitable is mostly a bunch of frustrated equity guys trying to make some headway into the "hot" new realm of currencies. I went to one of their earlier seminars out here just for "shiates and giggles" and received some very dirty looks on many of my questions. Not that the eager beaver investors all aroound me had any sense of what was going on outside of some great videos of fx traders making huge returns on their very first trade. Best to avoid business like these unless you like the moniker to read 4x made painful!!

athens euro 18:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hi all
I think that EUR$ WILL rise and I have to buy it now at this level....Really previous days witness a very sleepy trend for that pairs hope that this pair move before the weekend

TORONTO aviator 18:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Van revdax 17:49 GMT Aug 26
I have attended several of their seminars in Toronto and I agree with all the previous comments on this forum.
Their presentation is very SLICK, with the sole purpose of obtaining your credit card data to sell a 2 x day course for around $4,000.00.
No details of trading methodoligy, nor brokerage information and no real education.
Several clients have had extreme difficulty in cancelling their credit card transactions, after attending the first day of the course and not been satisfied.
My recommendation would be very negative.

Chicago Irish 18:17 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Raden...you're a good guy!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 18:06 GMT August 26, 2004
sorry.. about "must". only to explain my confidence forcast. I have basic reason why in my TA.
once more.. sorry about that.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
van revdax 17:49 GMT August 26, 2004
They are pushing their product everywhere my advice would be not to trust a program that promises money easy. If that is the case why do they need your money when they can make the money themselves. Second resistance has held off on the eur/usd pair but intraday indicators continue to unwind as traders jockey for position IMHO. GL GT

Rom IRG 18:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
No offense to anyone here. Just wanted to sugest that some rushed, spectacular and emotional posts are better kept inside for confirmation, than thrown in burst on this forum. gl & gt to all.

Chicago Irish 18:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
CYA Raden...the only time I use the word "Must" in Forex is when saying "I must stop trading" before I do more damage.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 18:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
seen not good again to stay,
I hope tomorrow will meet true direction.
let me say see u later fo all here.
thanks for today share.
cuuuu

Boca Raton 18:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Nope.

london dd 18:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com is a good U.S. stock site...has an interesting political odds board too...any1 know a good U.S. bond site?

Chicago Irish 18:00 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Boca:Did you ever got that audited track record you were looking for?

wisconsin tim 17:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
van revdax 17:49 GMT August 26, 2004

search help archives ->

NYC PCM 17:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Forum etiquette

Emotion is the biggest enemy of any trader - it's why 90% who try fail. I've discovered that the only way I can trade successfully is by learning to know myself well enough to recognise my emotions and not allow them to influence my thinking and my decision making - this is VERY HARD and an ongoing work. but it's making me into a better person as well as a better trader. I often tell people that trading is the most spiritual thing I've ever done, and that's the reason.

Emotion is "contagious" and I think we owe it to one another to keep it out of the discusions on this forum.

Just my 2 cents.

GER ad 17:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
The Dollar rally look questionable in this moment, maybe the best is to stay out from the market right now.

Jeddah Abb 17:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hi of $/CHF 1.2785

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Rom IRG 17:46 GMT August 26, 2004
If you do like to folow my TA, please read again my railway scenario.

Tor Pumpkin 17:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EBS high usdchf was 1.2783

van revdax 17:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone heard of 4X made easy?

They are advertizing in Vancouver as if the elderlies could use their retirement pension to speculate in the fx market.

van revdax 17:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone tell me the Hi of $/CHF today? TIA

NYC PCM 17:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
bahrain

That'd be a deeper retrace than I'd expect given the exreme bearishness of the larger cycles.

Rom IRG 17:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I mean we all have some bad days and "gain" some losses, but some of us can help themselves from posting their frustrations, or even worse, trying to help others "gain" some loses too. Am I right?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:45 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Rom IRG 17:39 GMT August 26, 2004
I inform you from my TA system. aud/usd is enough get high level now.(0.7940)

Rom IRG 17:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I'd hate to be a party breaker, but I really think jay should remove most of today's posts.

Chicago Irish 17:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Aflac!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 17:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 17:35 GMT August 26, 2004 ///
What's the problem?

Rom IRG 17:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas // Hey, how about your audusd?

chester wb 17:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
boca-who are you to assume if someone is truthful or not-your comments are the problem

Boca Raton 17:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

I agree. Either we start policing ourselves, or we start telling the truth.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
there is good chance/good level for gbp/usd to sell now arround 1.7960., 1.7970 is ideal top.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 17:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 17:24 GMT August 26, 2004
EUR/USD
///
Might wanna sell it at 1.2250

NYC PCM 17:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Standing to one side here. Still a serious chance that we're rallying out of minor cycle low, in which case I'm witing for a short entry higher up - likely in a few days.

In the event that we don't rally out of this consolidation I'll add to shorts after we come out the bottom (note: this option depends on time criteria)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 17:20 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Guys...Aus is Buy...at 1.7024
Not a "sell"

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:20 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
In my system..aud/usd now have maximal 10 minutes to stay here..or before 10 minutes down so fast. be carefull !

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd "must" make new low.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
don't worry..about aud/usd up.
sell more again. this is the hard battled sellers and buyers..
false movement I think.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
keep selling aud/usd.especially when touch 0.7035.. TOP.
maybe down fast from there.be carefull.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 17:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 16:48 GMT August 26, 2004
Bahrain, finding your site is a missioN impossiblE...

///
Might take a day I think...
Just made about 6 hours ago

Dallas GEP 17:04 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
OK guys, I am out of here for the time being. Quite frankly I am getting tired of some of the BS posts here that are geared primarily towards a personal attack on different people which obviously is specifically against forum guidelines. And I don't see it being Jay's job to make sure we don't verbally kill each other so either we police ourselves here or this forum could easily become a worthless tool.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 17:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd seen on the start level (0.7021) to move down again to get below 0.7000, maybe 0.6965..(bottom).

wisconsin tim 16:55 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
selling aud here and will sell more if 7060 is seen stops above 7080

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
okay.. have touched 109.69.
let's go !!

lahore omar 16:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
bahrain

i cant find out KhalidFree on msn users

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I look usd/jpy pattern seen confirmed to get 110.05-09. be carefull maybe sellers wait there.
seen move up from low 109.68, very good if show me 109.82 again as the key information.

Bruxville Jim 16:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, finding your site is a missioN impossiblE...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 16:30 GMT August 26, 2004
Bahrain // No, doesn't...
///
Working?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hello. friends !!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF is a sell

Boca Raton 16:37 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I have a bridge for sale is anyone wants to bite.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Jim
http://www.msnusers.com/
Look For KhalidFree

Dallas GEP 16:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Jim, I will move the stop if I see that other currencies are NOT moving in the same direction as the one I am holding at the time. FOr instance, USD/CAD was pretty much moving on it's own long because eur/usd for instance wasn't shorting hard and neither was gbp/usd really PLUS their is some resistance as well at 1.3150 so that type of decision I will make on the fly sometimes. I know that drives some people CRAZY here but that's how I do it and that might not work for anybody else in the world but it works for me.

Bruxville Jim 16:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain // No, doesn't...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
NZ is Buy Now
Chf is a sell

Calabash TarHeel 16:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT August 26, 2004
SWAP 1.3090 is likely bounce right now

If 1.3080 prints, I'll give it a shot for +30/40 pips

QC Swap 16:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT

Yeah, a slight bounce. But my method says 1.3050 TP for now. This isn't a quick trade. I might expect to hold it until tomorrow depending on how the afternoon goes.

Vilnius NM 16:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 16:09 GMT August 26, 2004

same here!
what a coincidence :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 16:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim ///
Works now?
If not look up at msn...clubs KhalidFree

Bruxville Jim 16:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP - btw why do you set up stops if you move them when price approaches?

Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I am happy to be a source of amusement for you guys RATON!! LOL SWAP 1.3090 is likely bounce right now.

Boca Raton 16:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
We had bets in the trading room you were for sure were going to come out and say that you sold more at 50, as 10 was given.

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
SWAP.....two diffrent platforms showed a high od 1.3157 ASK so I am sure it was hit...I wasn't fast enough to change stop on BOTH platforms

QC Swap 16:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:05

I'm going to hold this Short on USD/CAD.

Ina co'z 16:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:53 GMT August 26, 2004
yes raden..seen support at 1.7883...GL ! :-)

Dallas GEP 16:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/CAD shorts @ +15 but with stop hit on second set of lots at 1.3155, net possie was a small loss

Oakland daimyo 16:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD intraday (15 min) appears to be setting up H&S w/ right shoulder coming in @ the 1.2099 current Fractal top. Big guns sitting on 1.2124 (4 Hr & 60 min Fractal top) so this area looks capped for time being. Current buy/sell pressure favors downside test as it appears rumored option related defense is waning. I would not be greedy if I was long this market. We could see re-test of lower levels 1.2050/60 1st target. If this level gives, look for continued movement to 1.1984 (H&S price tgt) &/or 1.1955 (weekly pivot-S1). There are no lines in the sand. Downtrend remains in tact w/ range trade focus. In other words, still selling upticks. GT to all.

Bruxville Jim 16:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain // It says: "You are not authorized to view this page"

QC Swap 16:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

I like to know what platform you are using to have lost the USD/CAD on that spike up. Some brokers can be a bit unscrupulous. I'll ask jay for e-mail. if thats o.k.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 15:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Might have to use hoootmmail id

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 15:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay 15:48 GMT August 26, 2004 ///
The site with msn is cool with the forum right?
I am not collecting user info in there...so
Just changed the webpage host...cause of FTP Problems with geocities...
If Not OK..Please let me know Jay
Thanks
http://www.msnusers.com/KhalidFree/Documents/index.htm

Arlington Spen 15:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay, I am sorry, I shut up

QC Swap 15:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT

as per my last post. Thats what i'm talking about. Some brokers know that there are orders just hanging around a certain number. Unfortunately though it just means I have to take a slightly larger hit if the break is confirmed.

Bribane 15:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread)
doesnt work

Sydney M 15:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
yeah... Me too ;-)

Arlington Spen 15:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk, you are correct it would be many other agencies than SEC, but don't forget about all the overambitious Democratic attorney generals and liberal journalists that would be all over this kind of programming of quotes against clients.

What you say can exist informally, not in code and on paper. And you cannot profit from it consistently because for every buyer there is plenty of sellers out there. You screwed the buyer, but in turn got screwed by the sellers. So what's the point of programming quotes this way?

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Stopped was moved to 1.3165 on CAD but I did lose one set of lots at 1.3155 on one platform

NYC CS 15:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Jay...I'm done...no need...

QC Swap 15:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT

I am aiming more towards 1.3050 but that might seem to lofty for this week. I was kind of hoping more of a reaction to the unemployment numbers that come out for CAD earlier.

As for the SL. I try not to pick a round number because sometimes a lot of brokers know that there are many orders at at such a price. and with a large pip spread it gets arbitrary.

GVI Jay 15:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Arlington and CS, this is a good discussion topic for our Help Forum. Suggest taking it there.

NYC CS 15:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dude - I'm not guessing. I know. I've spent my entire career sitting on institutional trading desks, either as a market maker myself in FX, FX forwards, or interest rate derivatives, or as a price taker. It's a fact of life.

Also, if you don't understand that trading is all about probabilities, you shouldn't trade. Any market maker can be read incorrectly on any given quote, but as long as they are right for more volume than they are wrong, it pays to read.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 15:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
You guys think it's going down ha?
Check again
http://www.msnusers.com/KhalidFree/Documents/index.htm
euro is going up to at least 1.22

Arlington Spen 15:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Sydney M: if someone has a wide spread, this does not mean they are "skewing quotes".

If you asked some programmer to write a platform that automatically bets against new clients, you would be in jail by now, because the benefits for that person of telling on you to SEC, newspapers, what have you, would far exceed any salary you might offer.

Granted some dealers may try to read minds when giving a quote on the phone, but a systematic hard-wired conspiracy is not likely.

nyc jk 15:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
spen , without agreeing or dissagreeing on the conspiracy, the SEC does not regulate FX trading in the US. The NFA and CFTC have started to take a more active role in oversight but it is no where near as structured as equities, futures etc, so if the dealers are truly skewing prices, there is nothing to stop them on the regulatory front.

Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Shorted CAD also 1.3125 stop 1.3155 Target 1.3090

Newcastle GH 15:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
My Q was to Arlington Spen

Newcastle GH 15:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Have you been doing this long? Tried many platforms? I doubt it!

Sydney M 15:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
50/50??? I don’t agree at all, My IB rate was an expensive dedicated feed, It was very good, I never could fault any quoted value. But the dealer, a major one, consistently quote a skew priced. Very easy to see on tick data, I saved some of the data and back tested a system based on the discrepancy. You could make money from the dealer if your trades where executed fast enough.

Arlington Spen 15:36 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
NYC CS 15:24 GMT August 26, 2004

if what you say is true, and there is a wide spread conspiracy among dealers against "the little guy" and there is a programmed "reading of clients" minds, SEC would be all over it by now. You underestimate how many politicains and DAs out there want to score political points by attacking some "evil" fat cats and standing up for "the little guy". censored likewill do it even without any valid reason, but if something like what you are suggesting were really taking place, they would be all over newspaper headlines.

Again, you cannot read the mind of your client correctly. How do you know that I want to close a position and not add to it?

QC Swap 15:32 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Short Usd/Cad 1.3125

NYC CS 15:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Should say no market maker will ever admit it to a client.

NYC CS 15:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Arlington - every market-maker reads, unless they don't have a clue which way the client is going, or if the clients interest suits their position.

Every market maker reads, and no market maker ever admits it.

Arlington Spen 15:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Sydney M: I asked several brokers that I have dealt with about quotes and guarantees on stops and limits, they all said that they try to stay market neutral, and never bet against customers. I noticed the quotes are sometimes different on different platforms but they are not consistently in my favor or against. I guess it is just the result of the decentralized global market.
The notion that newbies are always wrong and you can safely bet against them, is prabably not true. More like 50/50. It is true that most run out of money because of undercapitalization.

Sydney M 15:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
As far as time scales go, i only noticed it on a tick charts

NYC CS 15:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Market makers will skew their prices according to which way the flow is going. If EBS is 1.2084-85, everyone is lifting their offers and they don't want to get any shorter, they will quote 1.2085-90.

If a client asks for a quote on large size and the dealer has some idea of whether the client is a buyer or seller, he will "read" the client accordingly, i.e. if he believes that the client is a buyer, he'll quote 1.2085-90, and if he thinks the client is a seller, he'll quote 1.2080-85.

Electronic trading platforms have your account/position info easily accessible, so they "read" their clients correctly the vast majority of the time.

Sydney M 15:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Arlington Spen - It was very short term. You could try to take advange of it, BUT they notice what you do and terminate the account. A few times i entered a long position while they skewed it up, as soon as the market dropped a little they skew it down. Problem is, its effectly a 15pip spreed.

hong kong nt 15:19 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
AB -- agree with your bearish view on NZD, see .6420 ...

Bruxville Jim 15:17 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
QC Swap 15:15 GMT // Don't forget The Grandpa...

QC Swap 15:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Looks like range trading for the rest of the week. Tomorrow's economic numbers I don't think will push Eur/Usd past 1.2030-1.2150 range.

Arlington Spen 15:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Sydney M 14:56 GMT August 26, 2004

dealers adjusting quotes to a "trend" sounds like a fantastic scenario. First off, if you wanted to screw your customers, how do you decide what timescale of the "trend" to use? 10-min? 1-hour? 1-day?
Second, this is a self-defeating strategy as many reversal guys like myself, would be shaving off extra pips on exaggerated quotes.
Third, this trend adjusting behavior means that trends as a technical tool always work and you can make risk free money just by following a trend or adjusting your quotes to some arbitrary trend.

Dallas MD 15:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bye All, Got to go to renew my driver's license. Good Trading all!

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Well, the feeds also in some cases are tailored to whether you are long or short. So I have seen with the SAME platform where the feed was slightly diffrerent if you were long on one account and short on another. It wasn't to your advanatge either!!! There are certainly feeds that are more PURE and more closely follow IB rates

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy.
be carefull ..maybe chart will wake up again from here (109.56 area) to make new high 110.10.

Dallas MD 15:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Way to Go Greg!

Dallas GEP 14:59 GMT August 26, 2004
Closed eur/usd longs @ +28

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:00 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
San Diego Devi 14:44 GMT August 26, 2004
oh..welcome
I follow GV rule about request e-mail. stay tune on gv.

Dallas GEP 14:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/usd longs @ +28

NYC 14:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bank dealers have always skewed their prices to suit their book and view. This is nothing new and part of market making.

Sydney M 14:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Yes, dealers seem to quote a skewed prices between different plantforms and inter bankrate.

Say interbank is 1.2550/55 and trending up, then the dealer quotes 1.2255/60.

If interbank is 1.2250/55 and trending down, then the dealer quotes 1.2245/50

When action is sideways they folllow inter bank more closely.

I asked them about it, they tried to blame the data feed. They just did not want to admit what they were doing.

Maybe some fast pip raiding traders could use it to there advantage?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/usd now. 1.7960 is the top before make new low below 1.7900.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd from 1.2101 ideally down again.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
enough here arround 0.7040, maximal 0.7052..maybedown again to get new low 0.6993 or 0.6965

Dallas GEP 14:45 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FHR.....interesting idea but NO I haven't done that.

hk ab 14:45 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
trailed eur/jpy 68, enough.
dlr/cad is a long run.
dlrjpy 110.

San Diego Devi 14:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Thanks for ur reply. I checked the archives, couldn't find anything related to what you mentioned. Is this something you would be willing to share ? I sent my E-mail address through Jay last week I think, but I can resend it to you if you are willing to share.
TIA

GENEVA FHR 14:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep as a matter of interest have you been able to do arbitrage between your different platform.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd..in fact that number waited by buyers since yesterday.

Dallas GEP 14:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Jim, that is not one of the ones I am using presently

Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
C ya MD!!!

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:33 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
San Diego Devi 14:02 GMT August 26, 2004
yeah..I have answer about question before.
are from Indonesia.
I called it "Nyi Roro Kidul system"

Bruxville Jim 14:32 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP, isn't one of your platforms GiCiIi? their quotes are sometimes unrelated to the market... proprietory trading platform and proprietory quotes, you know...

Dallas MD 14:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Out my lat EUR/USD short @ 1.2080 for +9 pips. Calling it a day @ +55 pips. See you all tomorrow & gl to all. Thanks Greg.

Johannesburg JW 14:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, thanks, I know you cannot disclose the platforms you use ,but i will appriciate if you could email mw at [email protected]

Dallas GEP 14:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
JW, I have currently use three diffrerent platforms. The feeds are diffrerent on each one sometimes up to 5-7 pips, sometimes more.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd still will catch 0.7013 (maybe buyers wait here to take action) and if show 0.7005.. it's mean it will go to 0.6965. Another chance!!!

hk ab 14:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/jpy breaks 77! Let's see any one can help him. (her?)

KL CODAIN 14:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EURO

Johannesburg JW 14:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, do you use two platforms to trade longs and shorts?

hk mom 14:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
oh...my long aud .7220.

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
1.2035

Calabash TarHeel 14:18 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
One of my indicators on US growth, sales of Jack Daniels continue to post strong numbers.
Happy Trades.

Rio 14:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas...which is your stop loss for this long eur?

Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Took a long on euro at 1.2065...target 1.2110

hk ab 14:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy can't climb above 132.50 n the last hr was the reason of the selloff. Now, the next hr is coming.

San Diego Devi 14:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raden,

How do u determine your price levels ?
TIA

Dallas MD 14:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Out 2/3 of my EUR/USD short @1.2066 for +23 pips. Holding 1 lot for further downside with a 10 pip stop.

KL CODAIN 14:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hail EURO
Bearish side having too much already while the 2050 support will give final defence of the Bullish side. Its time to see either the market will retreat a little bit to below 2000 region and push up to 2500 region with a good strike out.

KL CODAIN 14:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hail EURO
Bearish side having too much already while the 2050 support will give final defence of the Bullish side. Its time to see either the market will retreat a little bit to below 2000 region and push up to 2500 region with a good strike out.

hk ab 13:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
new buy limit on gbp 1.7905

hk ab 13:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
seems some news is out.

hk ab 13:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raden, I am not greedy, dlr/jpy longs tonight from 109.55, 109.50 p/t will be at 110.

Gold Coast martin 13:55 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
AUD is moving towards the critical 7020 barrier....Should euro breach 12045 aud should breach this barrier comfortably...if not tonite wait for tomorrow as "Chainsaw Al" will perform some corrective surgery on both ....g/t

UAE Oil man 13:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
B747, going to 112(only 250 pips) or even 115(only 450) is not yen weakness if you want to talk about a single asian currency and few years time frame.It is something you won't even see on your monthly charts, just a little spikes in the world of volatility,
Not when you look at monthly charts rolling down since brentwood from 400 (or hiroshima at 600.)..Talking Yen has no reasons to go down (so $/yen up) has little real sense (at least to 112, would understand you doubting 180...), as people do get stopped or take profits, and market is efficient in anycase up to a moment/point.
In anycase i have also drown the fish like you did with a more or less Obscure post with infos which comes as MEANINGLESS due to time frame differentials and everyone's RISK LIMITS.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd..at 1.2073.. ideally stay arround here, wait usd/jpy up for a while,.see cross eur/jpy.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
1.2073..have done.

hk ab 13:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
747// I have a feeling that the major move on dlr/jpy will be done when the crosses finish their half ways... So, right now, range trade till it breaks with a SAR under 109.

Goes (NL) B747 13:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:44 GMT August 26, 2004

this is a good reason, but there are still other 6BN people on earth and some of them will not be on your side for the speculation.

just make sure that 50.0000000001% of money inside USD/JPY trading is on your direction and than you will manage the move. :-)

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
thinking about 110.10
as the top of my friend "cahyo.8817"

hk ab 13:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
747//I am dying for that 112 very much....nothing is better than that bargain.

Dallas MD 13:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Patience is my biggest defect in my trading.

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT August 26, 2004
A word of caution here. Market is starting to move a little now and the tendancy is to jump into a position thinking it may NOW FINALLY be going somewhere. It's VERY hard to do but you may wish to wait just a little bit before jumping in.

van Gecko 13:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
All Major/Jpy crosses are at vely good scale in accumulation levels here.. use Usd/Jpy 109.00/10 (if seen) as a "bargain" baseline reference..
near term, all Jpy crosses will correct with their Major counterparts while Usd/Jpy languish down here at the Geisha dog house..fwiw..
Cheerios..


Goes (NL) B747 13:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Majority of Japanesse exports is not 'Made In Japan'; it is better to see Japan as CH of Asia.

JPY is going to get stronger and stronger upto the moment that ASIAN single currency will be available; there is not single reason for JPY to go down.

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy buyers..
let's go !!

prague viktor 13:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Oil man..Good day..thx mate I will watch that level..G/L G/T

Bruxville Jim 13:36 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
"London, August 26: There is a plain-vanilla 109.50 option rolling off at today"s NY cut (14:00GMT), with another 109.50 strike, plus a 110.00, expiring at the NY cut
tomorrow (Friday)."

source: censored

BATANGAS MAN 13:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:33 GMT August 26, 2004
seen eur/usd ready to fall again.
1.2073 not yet be get.

i don't understand. you mean, it can go lower than 1.2073?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hi friends..
I suspect usd/jpy will up to 110 area from now.

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
A word of caution here. Market is starting to move a little now and the tendancy is to jump into a position thinking it may NOW FINALLY be going somewhere. It's VERY hard to do but you may wish to wait just a little bit before jumping in.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:33 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
seen eur/usd ready to fall again.
1.2073 not yet be get.

hk ab 13:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
amc//now two entries, one at 109.50, one at 109.55.

UAE Oil man 13:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Japan should profit from the 'soft' landing (sometimes called hard landing depending which side of the fence you are sitting again) and credit crunch happening in china with a weaker JPY, and enter a exporting heaven with a weaker yen.

hk ab 13:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
martin//short nzd .6521, 6526, 6531.

hk ab 13:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
amc//yap, 'cos I see the fall will not be that fast on this pair. so buy 109.55/50 and exit the next day is ok.
in for 1 take.

hk ab 13:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
As said, we can see 131.xx for eur/jpy.
cad/jpy breaks the 84 is now in trouble. if the last daily support can't be held, a long way to go...

ny amc 13:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk......ab.......you like usdjpy long here

hk ab 13:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
747//from the weekly chart, that move to 112 may furnish the last upmove before the south mission. IMVHO.

Gold Coast martin 13:25 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:22 GMT August 26, 2004
Very wise moove ab..anything over 65 is a great short for short/medium/long term....g/t

hk ab 13:25 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
also dlr/jpy 109.55

slv sam 13:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
yes! it is very very INTERESTING tomorrow and Monday!!GT

Goes (NL) B747 13:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 13:22 GMT August 26, 2004

thank you for you opinion, even if I do not agree with you.

Japan exports down 0.3% while Japan imports were 1.2% lower, means that Japan trade balance gets better and firms generate more profits, is that a sign for a weakness the will take us within 3 session to 112/- ???

tia & gt

hk ab 13:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd long 1.0805 filled.

hk ab 13:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
oilman, 112 is the mother T/L from 135.xx...

UAE Oil man 13:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
$/yen looks like a nice coockaroo unless 108.80-109.40 gets taken, and closed under..before that technically a good long for 112 tommorrow and monday.

hk ab 13:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
add nzd shorts every 5 pips.

Calabash TarHeel 13:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man
Morning Oil Man, happy to see you posting again. Great call on gbp/jpy range: 204-198.
Hope all is good for you.
Take Care

ABOUJA bankruptcy 13:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   

SORRY
I think it is suitable time to buy EUR$ pair today at this level the next target will be 1.24 stop loss 1.1975

Syd EM 13:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Talk of investors building long positions on gold after strength, despite oil price retreat and dollar's appreciation. Support at $403 held well for gold this week, with safe-haven buying on terrorist concerns after the two Russian plane crashes, also ahead of next week's U.S. Republican Party Convention in New York. some analysts see a test resistance at
$415 next week.

Global-View 13:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ss bankruptcy,. We asked you to use a proper lcoation. Please cooperate.

hk ab 13:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
next wave eur/jpy selling is coming....

Dallas MD 13:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas GEP! What is the procedure for us to exchange emails so we might get to know each other if you wish?

ss bankruptcy 13:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I think it is suitable time to buy EUR$ pair today at this level the next target will be 1.24 stop loss 1.1975

Dallas MD 13:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I am short EUR @ 2089 for 23 Pip target, stop @ 2099 (may be a bit tight)

Dallas GEP 13:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Morning Maurico!! How's the weather there??? LOL

UAE Oil man 13:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raven, I hope you were on the good side of the fence...when we discussed the conclusiveness last week of 1.2280 :)

Dallas MD 13:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Dallas GEP

Surabaya Medallion 13:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ss bankruptcy 12:56 GMT August 26, 2004

I don't think the market will lift Euro up ahead of Mr Greenspan speech on Friday. Afterall, I still remember when I got burned at Yen from 108.6 to 112 something when Mr G spoke in 2 days (1.5 months ago). Right now I am 50:50 USD JPY after sold Euro at 1.2335 last week.

boulder dat 12:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Livingston....

This is from The Dismal Scientist.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 last week to 343,000. The Labor Department estimates that half of the week's rise in claims is directly attributable to Hurricane Charlie. This leading indicator of labor market conditions continues to trend below 340,000, signaling solid labor market conditions and providing hope that payroll employment will rebound from the disappointing gains of the last 2 months.

UAE Oil man 12:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hello victor,

Yes watch 194.80-195.20 for the bounce.

UAE Oil man 15:17 GMT August 17, 2004
Gbp/$ retraced most of the gains from the friday trade.
Last week the same configuration happened with euro following a bit later..
I guess watching 1.2270 on euro$ should be conclusive.


UAE Oil man 12:58 GMT August 16, 2004
Looks like dollar needs a new injection of dollar confidence by Alan Greenspan.
It was nearly a week ago(a very long time this days in this biz..), market has forgotten you said economy is ok, how the rates are going to increase at a measured pace..Market has short term memory, or is starting to have doubts (again), you better come back and beat the iron while it's hot.

ss bankruptcy 12:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya Medallion 12:52 GMT August 26, 2004
what do you mean??

Sydney Alimin 12:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
it is nice today, finally we got better tradable range for euro, was sick of watching 20-30 pips range

Dallas GEP 12:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
SS, resistance is at 1.2110. Range trade 1.2110 - 1.2060 ROUGHLY for now until it breaks range

Global-View 12:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ss BAT Man and others. One of our rules is to post a proper location. Your cooperation would be appreciated.

Surabaya Medallion 12:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ss bankruptcy

Don't underestimated Mr. Greenspan tomorrow.

hk ab 12:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
short nzd .6521.

Calabash TarHeel 12:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Morning Gep
No I didn't get 198, knowing I was going to be asleep during London opening, split the difference, left order @ 198.30. Oh well, btw good call on $/yen by your friend. Didn't take it either, but good call none the less. Back to the drawing board for today
Take Care

ss bankruptcy 12:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
it is something crazy ....immediately just after buying EUR/USD at 1.2103 it dips to 1.2098???????????????????

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
BAT MAN 12:41 GMT August 26, 2004
you are so polite..about "newbie"
I use my old sytem 2 years ago after testing new systemalways and seen bad result. I back to old my system.
I use pattern, and in my testing give me fact that specific pattern will be repeat always , but be repeated on different level.

NYC PCM 12:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Rally failed at critical Gann angle resistance . Probability higher for a lower low between now and Monday

hk ab 12:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
lowered down dlr/jpy entry to 109.35
will set target for eur/jpy when it trades under 132.

ss bankruptcy 12:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD AM NOW BUYING it at 12103 target 1.2115 in coming few minutes..................

Syd EM 12:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
German Economics Minister Wolfgang Clement said Thursday that the decline in business sentiment this month is no reason to expect a halt in country's economic recovery.
reuters

BAT MAN 12:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:30 GMT August 26, 2004

What kind of tech analysis are you using? Indicators?

Livingston nh 12:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Boulder dat - interesting that Florida didn't report a big jump in claims - the impact of the hurricane disrupted filings - will probably show up in next Thursday report

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:37 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd ..ideally down to 1.2073 and then up again.

BAT MAN 12:36 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:30 GMT August 26, 2004
BAT MAN 12:28 GMT August 26, 2004
I don't trade friend.
only demo

Thank you my friend. i see your levels quite good. it helps newbies like me. :) tx

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:32 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I mean 109.55 - 110.53

Tallinn viies 12:32 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Im out. sad of course but luckily oil is falling out of bed at the moment...
plan to sell euros again if no follow trough,

Ldn 12:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
US Jobless Claims +10K To 343K Aug 21 Week; Survey +4K

hk ab 12:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Raden// we wil see eur/jpy 131.xx today.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
BAT MAN 12:28 GMT August 26, 2004
I don't trade friend.
only demo

boulder dat 12:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I have a feeling the intitial claims will be a little skewed today because of the huricane. let's see.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
be carefull about probability oscilation usd/jpy from 109.53-110.89. have touch 109.66 as buy level.

BAT MAN 12:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:04 GMT August 26, 2004

Are you IN Long Euro @ 1.2118? gl

hk ab 12:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
close gbp long from 1.7945 @ 80 keep the 1.82.
add more short eur 1.2115.
long dlr/jpy limit 109.55.

NYC PCM 12:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

We're at a crirical reistance Gann angle here. If we go higher and break it then the odds are we're rallying out of that small cycle low.

syd 12:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
tks everyone

prague viktor 12:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
AG:the tone for some of us became agressive....

Its strees+slow mkt

Ldn 12:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.2125 Strike Expires Today NY 14 gmt

Sydney Alimin 12:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
someone might know something about the data, could be a retracement day

Belgrade Knez 12:25 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
syd 12:22 GMT August 26, 2004

409.00/409.50

Sydney Alimin 12:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gold: buy 408.9 sell 409.4

Roumeli anka 12:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
409

nyc jk 12:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gold - either side of 409, syd

Dallas GEP 12:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Profit targets hit on both euro longs and CHF shorts. Square now,

syd 12:22 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold price anyone tia.

Chicago YM 12:19 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
morning all

Global-View 12:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
We have allowed some more leeway than usual to let our members vent feelings given the current choppy environment but one rule we will insist on being followed is

6. Personal attacks on individual participants are not permitted. Readers are encouraged to respect the ideas of those who have been kind enough to contribute to the forum and treat one another with civility and respect.

CAIRO AG 12:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Regardless of the fact wether or not i / WE agree with any opinion HERE... why RECENTLY the tone for some of us became agressive....

We re here, I ASSUME, to exchange some ideas to make money.... IN CASE some of us dont like someone's opinion, i think he has TWO EYES that can enable him NOT TO READ THE POST when he sees any post coming from the part that he does not like ...... WITHOUT THROWING COUPLE OF WORDS THAT HAS NO MEANING!!!!!!!!

Back to trading..

Goes (NL) B747 12:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
must read: "weekly jobless claims" - sorry !!!

Goes (NL) B747 12:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
picture got clearer:

IMO, and nothing more/else !!!

NFP data will move the markets as the following (from 12:29 GMT close price:

(1) EUR/USD 70-90pips
(2) EUR JPY 80-120pips
(3) USD-JPY 60-80pips
(4) GBP/JPY 120-140pips

does not matter what data will be (even no change) the a.m. represent the movement until 15:00 GMT - the only thing I miss to see/forecast is the direction :-)

means, the ranges above will be the profit/loss depends on the position takes.

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:04 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ln 12:00 GMT August 26, 2004
you mean about me?
if yes.., sorry..that's my conversation art in my country.
mean is implisit message..
thanks.

ln 12:00 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
am i going mad or is someone having a conversation with himself on the forum...back to mkt.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
yes.. we all know about selling reaction when banker quote 1.2118.

Sydney Alimin 11:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
profit taking plus some stops being trigger i guess

Johannesburg JW 11:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
What caused this junp in the Euro?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
what will happen when eur/usd touch my number 1.2118?
I want to know..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gold
Level sell : Level Buy :
4019.60 stop loss 420.50(extreme) 400.20 stop loss 399.00 (major)
417.55 stop loss 418.20 (major) 395.60 stop loss 394.50 (major)
392.30 stop loss 390.00 (major)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf
1.2804 stop loss 1.2815 (major) 1.2593 stop loss 1.2580(major)
1.2852 stop loss 1.2860 (major) 1.2512 stop loss 1.2500(major)
1.2885 stop loss 1.2900 (major) 1.2719 stop loss 1.2700(major)
1.2669 stop loss 1.2645 (major)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy
Level Sell : Level Buy :
110.53 stop loss 110.68 (major) 108.52 stop loss108.15 (major)
110.89 stop loss 111.30 (major) 108.27 stop loss 108.15 (major)
111.15 stop loss 111.30 (mqjor 109.63 stop loss 109.40 (major)
108.85 stop loss 108.60 (major)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd
Level sell : Level Buy :
0.7119 stop loss 0.7130 (major) 0.6993 stop loss 0.6980 (major)
0.7149 stop loss 0.7180 (major) 0.6945 stop loss 0.6920 (major)
0.7153 stop loss 0.7180 (major) 0.6937 stop loss 0.6920 (major)
0.6800 stop loss 0.6750 (major)
0.6771 stop loss 0.6750 (major)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
Level sell : Level buy :
1.8034 stop loss 1.8060(minor) 1.7866 stop loss 1.7855 (major)
1.8050 stop loss 1.8060(major) 1.7824 stop loss 1.7800 (major)
1.8084 stop loss 1.8095(major) 1.7755 stop loss 1.7735 (major)
1.8139 stop loss 1.8150(major)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd
Level sell : Level Buy :
1.2118 stop loss 1.2125 (minor) 1.2010 stop loss 1.1995 (major)
1.2175 stop loss 1.2210 (minor) 1.1960 stop loss 1.1940 (major)
1.2213 stop loss 1.2230 (major) 1.1934 stop loss 1.1925 (major)
1.2282 stop loss 1.2300 (major) 1.1800 stop loss 1.1790 (major)

Sydney Alimin 11:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, are you looking to reverse by shorting euro as your long target reached?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
to gold players
409.70 ideal as the top, if move down from there, chart will entry oscilation area 403.30 - 408.30, but if show you 410.50, go to 414.00 - 415 is nice area for sell.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya arek suroboyo ye
Now I have spare time.
want to chat?
you can ask Mr. Jay in GV to help you sending your email to me.
I believe Mr. Jay can help you for this with kindly.
Bankcruptcy... have asked Mr. Jay about my email?

hong kong nt 11:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Undoubtedly, there are significant merits of your good effort here. To make your valuable contributions closer to perfection, you may pay more attention on the style of presentation. Using a more structural way of presentation maybe one effective way out of many possible choices. For example,

Observation:

Recently, many small investors, newspaper analysts, etc are calling for lower USD...etc

Analysis:

Technically, yen crosses are heading lower plus bullish divergence shown on USD index...etc

Conclusion:

An imminent USD bottom maybe seen. Time to scale out USD shorts and buy USD on dips...etc

Implementation:

Using descending daily TL as a reference to sell Euro, 1.2300/50, stop at 1.2400 or on 2 consecutive close abv said TL...etc

Hope that may help...

Dallas MD 11:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
San Diego Devi, Thanks for the insight.

San Diego Devi 11:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD,

I use the 3 line price break not so much for looking at the price break, but I have plotted MACD with the 3line price break. I use this MACD (which I find it to be very useful) in conjunction with the MACD from the regular Japanese candlestick chart .

sar jf 11:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
las - well done with 5-5 but as you know working at a casino yourself how many blackjack players go 25/25 or 50/50- gr8 your trading with confidence and best of luck

Gibraltar PW 10:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.. I think possible reversal points in cable are 1.8060 and 1.8110, these are based on EW corrective fib projections, and assuming the low of the day to be 1.7930.
Gd luck all.

Dallas MD 10:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone. I was wondering if anyone used 3 Line Price Break Candlestick method in their trading. Good Trading everyone.

nyc jk 10:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
that's how I feel about all your posts ab. I am not wasting anymore time responding to you now.

GVI Jay 10:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, did you get my email?

hk ab 10:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
short eur/aud limit 1.7150.

Bruxville Jim 10:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
DON'T BET YOUR HOUSE...

hk ab 10:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 14:07 GMT August 25, 2004
7 entries on dlr/cad so far....

hk ab 14:01 GMT August 25, 2004
GEP// switch off the chart and come back 2 weeks later on dlr/cad...

hk ab 13:53 GMT August 25, 2004
I really love this cad to give us so many good levels to buy again...
collected all the pips on the trail. Now, relong 1.3053


JIM// From 1.3053 to 1.3023, 7 lots long average is 1.3038
The rest... you count it.

Goes (NL) B747 10:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
good morning,

imo, it looks like brokers/dealers made today's weekly jobless claims to make the markets move towards one or another direction.

it looks like s/l orders placed by day traders are under heavy attack.

gt

Bruxville Jim 10:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
500 pips:)) ab, you're a funny man... Got to go now... Good luck to you boys and girls...

Ina co'z 10:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hi all !..

My little expected for daily support euro and cable at...1.1970 and 1.7795...GL/GT...!

Bruxville Jim 10:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ab// did I get it correctly - those 300 Caddy pips come from 30 pips X 10 possies? A 300 pips run on that pair is long time no see... gl.

hk ab 10:36 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
and not to mention the 500 pips collected from "chicken" long dlr/cad yesterday.

by the way, "steal chicken" means "do it in a sneaky way" in Chinese terms, just in case if you don't understand.

NYC PCM 10:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Morning all

EUR/USD

Basically in the same trading range still as yesterday. Now only 1 day from projected minor cycle low so we should still go down further into that low, however the danger that we may already have made it is increased to near 40% now. So - short is still the way to go but with the risk of being caught in a rally out of that low...........so careful stops.

The larger picture remains extremlely bearsih with all the major cycles pushing down into a nest of lows due mid Novemeber.

hk ab 10:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
jk//a special note for you...

at least the b.s. helps to get >1000 pips this week with only one mistake on gbp long 1.82 (which is again caused by selling USD). and SAVE a lot of people not to go long at 79.40 aud/jpy by our good BIG USD BEAR ldn....

right now, the dlr/cad is enjoying more than 300 pips run....

Roumeli anka 10:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Sydney... this is a weekly chart. When I move to daily I see a straight line from sub 88 to 89.6 , without a base or some accumulation or a "fear" correction. I dont think its ready for a break.

Sydney Alimin 10:20 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 10:08 GMT August 26, 2004

nice chart there, looks like it is about time for the triangle to be broken isn't it? it is more than 1/2 the length of the whole thing, perhaps tomorrow with greenspan speech?

Dallas GEP 10:17 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, hope you took that 198.00 short on GBP/JPY.

GER ad 10:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 10:07 ,
You may be right about next week but first we could test 1.1970/80 (if 1.2035/45 breaks) and if this point hold than after go back to 1.2130.

Dublin Flip 10:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
(I know this is shamefully ozzie bullish but this NOT a daily trade recommendation)
While many seem to subscribe to the “when US (and currently fashionable to be substituted for China) sneezes Australia catches a cold” theory when looking for good copy, recent history just don’t bare that out. Over the past half-decade, S+P -26%, NASDAQ -63%, Dax -46%, Nikkei -41%, FTSE -37% and Australia ‘s ASX still manages +26% over the same past five turbulent years (ASX had only one -ve year as opposed to the other’s three). The fact is that they don’t NEED China to grow at astronomical figures. They already can’t keep up with the demand now and have recently been announcing they have no intention of increasing supply. Thing is the big miners merged from the multitude during the down years and currently reveal spending money on R+D just plays into the hands of the buyers. Whereas in the nineties Japanese companies would tell the mining companies what discounted prices they were prepared to pay and played one off against each other now it’s the other way around. There are only a couple of suppliers of any size and the current theme is “why increase supply and kill the goose after a few eggs”.
It’s what’s known as a sellers market. Whether China manages to slow to <5% growth I have no idea. Whether ozz comes lower as part of a USD bear market rally I don’t know either but considering both China and India are still at embryonic stages of infrastructure development for their 2.4bio population’s development (i.e. over 1/3 of world population) I’d say there is a natural “bid” in the market at some point in commodity and energy land. Remember nothing comparative has occurred since the post-WW2 to early seventies massive western explosion of infrastructure. For all of the noises about “growing the pie” given the potential of the next twenty years we’re just starting to get the ingredients out of the fridge.

slv sam 10:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:08 GMT /
when jpy starts to gather strength...e/$ is possible to go up and e/y goes down at the same time imho, we have seen before!.GT

Sydney Alimin 10:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
i am very tempted to go long cable here, but it can turn very ugly as it is sitting on 200 EMA, 23.6 fib from feb's high to may's lowand capped for the moment by 61.8 fib from may's low to july's high..very tricky

Roumeli anka 10:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
here is the chart
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=25902&u=contrarian&a=contrarian%5C%27s&id=497

Tallinn viies 10:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
as long as euryen sellers cap the cross at 133,10/15 level. eurusd is safe sell.
target 1,1970/95 today

Roumeli anka 10:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GER ad... what I see is eur and gbp loosing momentum. I think only minor spikes and marginaly new lows for now.
Look at the weekly chart of USD. Traped within a triangle testing the 50 sma. I dont think we will see any break this week and it is possible to have a retest of the lower barier at 88 next week.

Sydney Alimin 10:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
any data out from UK?

QC WC 09:55 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, seem you made your call on Usd/Chf a bit early, hope it will go down now!

Dallas GEP 09:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Well usd/chf shorts in but market came wi 1 pip of my stop Eiro longs still working from 1.2065. Targets on both now 1.2085 and 1.2730

GER ad 09:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 09:35,
Be caution, this could be only the rest for the storm.
And why to sell the currencies low if you can sell them a little higher. Interesting that CAD a little weaker (this could be also cross pressure) and EUR/CHF a little higher - so no signs for the moment of lower USD IMHO. GT & GL

Roumeli anka 09:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Well, it seems sellers have dried up a bit for gold and majors against dollar. No more drama till the end of the week.

wellington am 09:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
liverpool Adele
When you don't know what you're doing, and have no fear, you can probably do very well - for a while. But when you get hit, you'll get hit hard.

Making money out of this game is very hard, and screws with your mind. With good money management, and patience, it does seem to be possible.

I've been trading for about 9 months, and am only now starting to recover from some early mistakes. Take your time, paper trade until comfortable, and never:
- over expose yourself;
- be afraid to take a loss;
- rush to make your money back if you do lose.

GL.

long kiwi, looking for 0.6580

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 09:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Surabaya arek suroboyo ye 09:07 GMT August 26, 2004
yes I have, but sorry.. now I am so bussy. sorry..
see my archieve..still valid.

Surabaya arek suroboyo ye 09:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Mas Raden, do you have yahoo massanger ??? Can we share ???

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 08:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf.. be carefull with 1.2804..top?
see my archieve !

hk ab 08:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I suggest some people look at the initials carefully, those posts were from "hk ark" not me.

too tired with these nonsense. GL.
Martin, B747, viies// see you all after the deadline 6th Sept.
It's crystal clear here who has a valid suggestion and who's crying wolf. Keep up the good work.

hk ab 08:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Syd EM 08:03 GMT August 26, 2004
hk ab, most here trade currencies both ways and dont need your patronising remarks thank you

PIPS OFF with your news-related-trades disasters...bye.

Ldn 08:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
BAGHDAD (AP)--Saboteurs have attacked multiple pipelines in southern Iraq, a top oil official said Thursday.
The attacks took place in Berjasiya, 30 kilometers southwest of the southern city of Basra, the South Oil Co. official said.

china 08:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   

"Hereunder are forecasted highs and lows and suggested buy and sell points for Aug 26h, 2004 based on the trends observed on daily charts.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Currency Forecated Lows Forecasted Highs Suggested buy and sell points Suggested Stops Forecasted lows and highs of this week

0 DINIW 89.06 90.00 87.00 / 90.12
1 RUD/USD 1.2010 1.2190 sell 1.2180 1.2230 1.2000/ 1.2280
2 GBP/USD 1.7800 1.8084 sell 1.8070 1.8120 1.7700/ 1.8180
3 AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7120 sell 0.7100 0.7150 0.6900/ 0.7150
4 USD/CHF 1.2650 1.2850 sell 1.2670 1.2620 1.2600/ 1.2850
5 USD/CAD 1.3000 1.3100 sell 1.3010 1.2980 1.2820 /1.3100
6 USD/JPY 109.50 110.60 sell 110.50 111.10 109.00/ 111.00

his information is for reference only. Please keep in mind that you and you alone are responsible for your own trades and for the maintenance of stop loss entries at levels you can afford. In order to help preserve trading capital, it is suggested that when prices move in your favour by 30 points, you change your stop to a breakeven position.
My QQ number is : 30963505,. Please feel free to contact me.
Good luck to everybody!!
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.678678.com/bbs/index.asp
Yours sincerely,
Yinzi







Gen dk 08:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast martin 08:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Canberra 08:26 GMT August 26, 2004
...If anyone is not confused by the forex market every day is a liar....out of confusion clear signs arise....if you read all my posts from that time you will see the downward pattern developing with the timeframes being not always to the accuracy that i would like them to...still that is my system talking to me and i am sticking to it.....g/t.

Canberra 08:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin - hi, was reading your early work because of this post:

GOLD COAST MARTIN 16:09 GMT August 6, 2004
BRUXVILLE JIMM..how misguided you are...we have been at the 12270 level for only an 3 hours in a log long while and you are already assuming a a trend has developed..Also just to correct you if you go back 6 months and read my posts i was calling for traders to short euro when it was at the 129 levels and every body was calling 130 plus ..also was shorting aussie at 79 when the concensus was 80 plus..have been following the overall general downtrend ever since for both currencies and this will be the theme until the end of the year,,,so please do not make generalisations before studying the facts...g/t

Nothing about telling us to sell Aud at 80, only this :

Gold Coast martin 07:47 GMT February 13, 2004
just getting frustrated in relation to the current rapid rise of the australian against the usd.Is the likelihood of a pullback likely in the short term and how much of a retracement will there be?I am just getting confused every day reading conflicting reports.Your comment will be appreciated.

PAR 08:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Weak IFO and weaker expectations due to dismal German domestic demand are putting further pressure on the Euro.

Bruxville Jim 08:18 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:11 GMT // Cautioning us?

rom nick 08:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The Ifo indicator of business climate in Germany fell to 95.3 in August from 95.6 in July, a decline that was less than the anticipated decline to 95, AFX News said. The August business assessment index, a measure of current conditions, improved to 94.7 from 94.1, while business expectations fell to 96 from 97.1.


Tallinn viies 08:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:02 GMT - not reversing there as daily stochastic is still down and hasnt crossed yet.

i would better want to sell again if move higher only stop hunt and euro doesnt form platoo for the new push higher

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
liverpool Adele 08:05 GMT August 26, 2004
It is an illusion, now test your good luck to see if it last for years. There are good traders in this forum use the archive and read. There is plenty to learn here IMHO.
I have retracement numbers for eur/usd pair around 1.2120-30, 2170-80, 2210-20 and 2250-60 for now IMHO. GL GT

German IFO - August - 95.30 Vs 95.10 Consensus (IFR)

Pecs Andras 08:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
liverpool Adele 08:05 GMT August 26, 2004
Adele
If you are new, try a demo first, or better a live mini, and you will see how difficulé it is to make money consistently

Tallinn viies 08:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
dont trade jpy

Bruxville Jim 08:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
data out...
"LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The Ifo indicator of business climate in Germany fell to 95.3 in August from 95.6 in July, a decline that was less than the anticipated decline to 95, AFX News said. The August business assessment index, a measure of current conditions, improved to 94.7 from 94.1, while business expectations fell to 96 from 97.1. "

nyc jk 08:10 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
yeah the IFO data was just released 9 minutes ago, can we please not waste forum space talking about that though and instead focus on the quacking ducks.

hk ark 08:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
can any body inform if any data is out in germany

nyc jk 08:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Martin - well you scenario may indeed come true. right now my view is we are closer the bottom of the short term range than the top, but if we are really going to 1.10 as you think, there will be plenty of chances to sell between here and there.

ab - don't worry it was only the IFO data that came out of Germany, not important information like someones grandmother trading 2 lots of AUD.

liverpool Adele 08:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I have had a good look at forex trading and for the amount of money it seems can be made from it, it does not seem difficult. Is this an illusion and what would the requirements be?

Syd EM 08:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, most here trade currencies both ways and dont need your patronising remarks thank you.

slv sam 08:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:02 GMT /
sorry that was for veiis

hk ark 08:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
any data out in germany

slv sam 08:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
THX! will you reverse then...or you wait better level to sell euro again? imho position traders might not wait for low 1.20 and they already started 2 buy the euro for the all time high!!GT

hk ab 08:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
add short eur/jpy 132.96

hk ab 08:00 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
place limit to add aud/nzd 1.0805.

hk ab 07:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
viies//thanks by the way on your eur suggestion 1.2089...

martin//leave them alone, they will see the consequence after Sept starts.

Gold Coast martin 07:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 07:47 GMT August 26, 2004
Point taken JK...But end of summer is approaching and the range of 11980-12385 will soon end...right now we are trading at the bottom end of this range with a new trend to be established by end of august...With current trading and most indicators pointing to a downward bias balance of propabilities points to breach of 11990 and a downward path to 110 or parity or 110 range by 31st of december...you will have to be a brave man to be longing euro at 120 with a target of 125+ by end of december....g/t and see you on the other side....

Rom IRG 07:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tallin viies, do you trade jpy? How do you see the next move in usdjpy, eurjpy? Thanks!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FWIW 1.2050 option barrier has been taken out for eur/usd pair now players are targeting the bigger option barrier at 1.2000 (IFR). Resistance is now at 1.2090-2100, 2120-30, 2155-65, 2200-10 and major resistance 1.2260-70 for now IMHO. GL GT

Syd EM 07:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk whilst the aud was embarking on a run up to 73.50 from the low of 67.70 , I recall GC Martin was calling 65 at the next NY close.

check the Archives.. one would be very heavily down on a short from there, as was Martin

Tallinn viies 07:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 07:31 - 1,2124

nyc jk 07:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 04:30 GMT August 26, 2004
Gold Coast martin 04:09 GMT August 26, 2004
Hello Martin
This forum is unique when it comes to the aud. I can't remember a week lately when there hasn't been at least one copy and paste extolling the reasons for an immediate run up for the aud. The net result of all of this is that in the last six week the aud is down 300 pips. Until it proves otherwise, my book is sell on bounce.

Tarheel - very true, however was it also not true that some of the same bullish AUD stories were posted as AUD embarked on a 500+ pip rise from .6780 ish to .7340 ish in the June-July period? be careful, the mind can selectively draw on examples to support a thesis and it can see a pattern where there is none.




hk ab 07:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Flip//thanks.

current eur move looks to me someone can't tolerate the pain of the fast fall in eur/jpy.....but yet more fast falls to come if 747's story comes true.

chennai kj 07:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hi, is there anyone who is doing intra-day sterling trading in this forum pls

Rom IRG 07:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Allways follwing viies. He's one of the most pertinent posters on this forum, so I'm pretty sure he's right now too.

PAR 07:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Expect dramatic decline in German IFO of business sentiment. Exports are relatively ok ,but internal demand keeps falling due to too high taxes and too low interest rates. Since German consumers have no money to spent the german economy is crazy enough completely dependent on US and Eastern consumers. Maybe something wrong with German economic policy?

slv sam 07:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:21 GMT /
may be both trade will meet target different time scale of course.
May I ask your s/l plz? thx

Ldn 07:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Bk's inhouse data suggest the mkt is currently very short EUR/USD. The risk therefore remains that the mkt readjusts its positioning ahead of Sep 3 US payrolls. This would see the pair head to the mid-point of the current indicative "fair value" range of 1.2140-1.2410
censored rept

Tallinn viies 07:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
order filled.
sold m,ore euros @ 1,2086. target now 1,2005

Syd EM 07:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko thanks

slv sam 07:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
bought e/$ here at 1.2088 target 1.2350 s/l 1.1970.GT

van Gecko 07:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Short/Mid/Term positional players are given good buy levels for the European trios & the Downunder twins here compliment of Gold's mini correction of its $30 rise from the recent 385 swing low.. a weekly & monthly close above 405 this week could be the trigger for another $80 labor day to year end long march up to the 450's..
needless to say, the Majors would follow Gold like Pavlov's dog up to new heights..
Cheerios..


indon kmgn 07:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hi room, anyone care to comment on chf? I got slugged for placing too tight stops. Wud it go further up?

Ldn 07:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras just caught it on one of the wires, not sure

BAT MAN 07:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Hello Traders! im a new fx trader and i find this forum very helpful. Specially inputs from Dallas, hk, tallin.. etc.. good luck to all. Tips coming from all of you would be very helpful. thanks. :)

Dublin Flip 06:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Ab I think you are right. There are just too many negative economic stories being posted out there. Three digit PEs??? – I see that as Potentional for growth and underscores the inherent optimism in the economy. Foreigners owning +40% of all US treasuries?? – Another vote of confidence by the international community. Exploding US budget and trade deficit??? – As herr Cheyney says deficits don’t matter anyway. A dearth of public and private saving – who worries about rainy days when we can control the weather. An economy that’s grown accustomed to luxury –ve real intrest rates for the past few years - I’m sure Keith Richards can attest that one can function with a dependency.
Did I mention jobs, terrorism, the mess in Iraq, US’s damaged relationship with Europe, the consumer’s dependence on cheap Asian imports, the drag on the economy from punitive Health care and retirement costs??, how about the aging demographic and baby boomers ??? When you get some fluffy, up-vibe pieces give them a spin. But I forget that’s Alan Greenspan’s job.

Pecs Andras 06:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 06:43 GMT August 26, 2004
That one must have been taken already.
The low was 2039/44 on EUR

LAS 06:44 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
got my 25 pips on NZD/USD trade... woot woot... now just waiting for news release for CHF in about 30 mins. I was looking to go long the usd/jpy but i see it is right below resistance line so i am passing on that one for now... i'll see what develops in next few hours... trades this week i am 5 for 5 totaling 93 pips.. hopefully more to come :)

Ldn 06:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Talk of option-linked defense at 1.2050 on Euro/US by Asia names

eur lg 06:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
If memory serves didn't Dr Q mention before he left 1.2048 as an important level ?

wisconsin tim 06:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
or
web page

ICT ML 06:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Likewise OMIL. I saw that sucker punch coming at the 1.2050 barrier earlier and didn't have my order in for 1.2045.........missed an easy 30-50 pips there.

I been sucking on timing lately after my mini vacation. But its all good.

wisconsin tim 06:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
thursday levels -

Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
8/25/2004 AUDUSD 0.7087 0.7008 0.7110 0.6984
8/25/2004 EURGBP 0.6749 0.6707 0.6756 0.6705
8/25/2004 EURUSD 1.2119 1.2016 1.2150 1.1995
8/25/2004 EURYEN 133.34 131.97 133.93 131.31
8/25/2004 GBPUSD 1.8022 1.7837 1.8058 1.7790
8/25/2004 GBPYEN 198.16 195.99 198.91 194.96
8/25/2004 NDZUSD 0.6527 0.6434 0.6574 0.6409
8/25/2004 USDCAD 1.3102 1.3002 1.3175 1.2976
8/25/2004 USDCHF 1.2811 1.2689 1.2839 1.2656
8/25/2004 USDYEN 110.40 109.45 110.88 109.12

see Web Page

Sydney Alimin 06:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
just be careful with going long euro, it seems that everyone is expecting a bounce up from near 1.2 or below

LAS 06:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
i have a general question to all that would like to answer.... if u have been a successful trader what is about your daily average pips that u make per trade and average length of trade and what time frame u trade off of. Thanks for anyones input

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good to see your comments ML I have several platforms that traded through the rumored 1.2050 option barrier that is why I don’t believe everything I read LOL. I have support now at 1.2020-30 and 1970-80 for eur/usd pair for now. Hope you’re doing well buddy. GL GT

Ldn 06:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:09 GMT
australias answer to Greenspan !!

hk ab 06:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
The only bias I would be interested in is oilman's one.

ICT ML 05:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Did EBs trade through 1.2050 just now or just our retail shops?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good to see some of the long timers here once in a while guys I still think this support will hold for now on eur/usd pair TL, 55ma weekly, and option protection you name it. Seems the bulls have placed their strong hold technically here in this support. I know I have said it before but I still believe in a bounce before the bears can make any major moves IMHO. GL GT

hk ab 05:56 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
eur short from 1.21 will be closed @1.2005.

Tallinn viies 05:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hit the iron as long it is hot!
good morning world!

euro still SELL. stop buy order (cut shorts) now should stand over previous day high which was 1,2115 bid. so resistance at 1,2110/15. stop at 1,2124.
from yesterday have tiny short position from 1,2095. trying to keep it all the way down to 1,2 and add if possible. sell order now at 1,2086.
As I said yesterday if move down to 1,20 seen I would be lucky to start building up new longs. if yesterday my prefered buying area was 1,1990/1,2025 then it has moved down a little bit.
staring to cover my short positions and turn slowly long from the area 1,1970/1,2005. if moves lower further wouldnt mine to buy more cheap euros near 1,1900.
thats it, good luck

hk ab 05:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
place limit to close eurjpy short from 133.33 @ 131.55.

hk ab 05:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
close dlr/jpy short from 110.20, 110.30 x 2 @110.05.
Place new short limits at 110.45, 110.70.

ICT ML 05:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, I bot gbp last night at 49 thinking it was headed to 1.8125-50 area, and ended up stopped at even again after it failed at 1.8010. Guess I need to set 50 pip targets for now. We'll see if that is still in the cards today ....

hk ab 05:38 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
close eur/gbp short @6725 for 15 pips long gbp 1.7945

Dallas GEP 05:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
WEll ML, they will need some volume to do it. Could happen but I think London boys might long gbp and euro might follow will see

ICT ML 05:21 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEPPER I was looking at that too....but think they will slam that option barrier first, so I'll hold off a bit and see what they do. Maybe I can get in at 45 or so don't know.

Dallas GEP 05:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
1.2065 euro long IN, 1.2035 stop 1.2110 TP

Calabash TarHeel 04:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good Night All. Happy Trades!

Gold Coast martin 04:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
CALABASH TAHEEL...you will not get any argument from me on that....figures speak for themselves...g/t

LAS 04:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
well i still don't see where you are coming from wis. from my understanding is that most of the time my broker takes the other side of my trade and then he tries to off set it so does it really matter if i go long or short? With all things being equal if i buy at 10 it has the same chance to go to 15 as it does to go to 5. Also i still don't understand where u got the number 100 from in your first example, and one last... if u say i have a 91% chance of going broke then what is your percent of u going broke? Not trying to argue just looking more into the math of trading

Calabash TarHeel 04:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:09 GMT August 26, 2004
Hello Martin
This forum is unique when it comes to the aud. I can't remember a week lately when there hasn't been at least one copy and paste extolling the reasons for an immediate run up for the aud. The net result of all of this is that in the last six week the aud is down 300 pips. Until it proves otherwise, my book is sell on bounce.
Take Care

Gold Coast martin 04:29 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 04:17 GMT August 26, 2004
As i dont have any current exposure to the yen i havent done any detailed analysis on it to offer an concrete opinion...it is a mixed bag at he moment..if i were to have exposure to the yen in the next week or so i would avoid trading the usd/jpy pair and instead trade the crosses like eur/jpy,aud/jpy and if you can get it NZD/JPY...more $$s to be made on the yen crosses with less exposure to a loss than the usd/jpy...g/t

wisconsin tim 04:17 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
well, if you are buying then someone has to be selling, markets don't exist in a vaccuum.

the bigger players have something smaller fish don't have, just like a casino, staying power.

KL KL 04:17 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin , G'DAY what about YEN does it weaken or strengthen based on your current scenerio..my view is that they will strengthen...not sure how they will trade against other ccy!!imho

sar jf 04:16 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LAS 03:54 GMT August 26, 2004
your problem comes when u see the mkt poorly n lose 8-10 trades- you are playing a complex game for bank interest basically

Gold Coast martin 04:09 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:54 GMT August 24, 2004
Good afternoon....The euro may have re-discovered its downward bias but be aware before confirming this downward trend there is one more kick in the lig=fe of the euro before descending further south...look for an upward move from 12150 to 12225 to occur by end of ny trading wednesdsay...as fars as aud and kiwi as previously posted aud after a breather at the 7115-7145 level will descend to 7020 level by end of this week..the kiwi as posted before many times will shed more than any other commodity currency in its downward path...after a brief period of trading between 6585-6620 until end of ny trading wednesday look for a descend to the 6450-6475 level by end of ny trading on friday...Should above time frames prove correct as i posted 2 months ago euro will confirm long downtrend on its way to parity or 110 by 31st of december..aud on its way to .57 by 31st of december and nzd .5150..we have all talked about it before but with the end of summer approaching the signs are starting to appear and materialise..if you are an intraday trader trade the dips as there will be a lot more of downward movement with less minimum upward correction...if you a long term position trader just dont get caught on the wrong side of the fence....good trades to all bulls and bears...
NOTICED:A lot of space has been taken in relation to the aud on this forum...i brought this post out of archives in order to put the current and future aud position into perspective and for traders not to lose focus of the current state of affairs in the last 3 directionless trading sessions....g/t

Prague JV 04:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I d like to add , that B4 all your trending indicators come all togeather , you will probabli allready be long way from your pivot point , and if you looking for only 25 pips and risking 25 , the ods are good that you enter just B4 pullback .Not wise , but if its working for you , no problem .

LAS 04:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
in that case i would agree with u 100% since my day job is in a casino but i don't see how that is the same to my situation. first of all... if i can pick trades that can go up 50 pips before the go down 25 pips i would do it.. but i have been beat up so many times in the last 10 years i don't have much confidence atm. in your example u gave me a person with 10 and a person with 100... if i am the person with 10 i am not sure who is the person with 100 since i am trading by myself. i also believe but not totally believe that any trade put on is basically 50/50 and we just use educated guess to either choose to buy or sell. which brings me back to my post... to make math easy... say i risk 100 pips to make 500 pips... with my math shouldn't i only win 1 time outta 5 to give me the break even senario? Thanks for your post Wis..

Selmer,Tn dmholt 04:03 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
I am very interested in trading the Fx Mkts... but am wondering where is best source to get a good understanding of just how to trade FX. I have traded futures & options for approx 15 years.... am wondering how my previous knowlege/experience will relate to the Fx Mkts? Appreciate any helpful advise, before I start to trade.

wisconsin tim 03:59 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
LAS -

"You have $10 and your friend has $100. You flip a fair coin. If heads comes up, he pays you $1. If tails comes up, you pay him $1. The game ends when either player runs out of money. What is the probability your friend will end up with all of your money? From the second equation above, we have p = q = .5, W = $10, and R = $100. Thus the probability of your losing everything is:

1 - (10/(10 + 100)) =.909.

You will lose all of your money with 91 percent probability in this supposedly "fair" game.

LAS 03:54 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
i have a comment off a post from yesterday... i been trading lately with a 1:1 risk/loss ratio on all my trades. Someone said that isn't that good cause i need to win more then i lose to make money and i understand that.... but the way i think is that basically whether i buy or sell, mathimatically i should lose because of the spread. so when someone says that i should risk 25 points to make 50 points i should trade % wise 67% losers and 33% winners??? Am i thinking correct or would someone like to claify me with my thinking. The way i trade now is i need 3 trending indicators to line up and have a bullish MACD if i go long so i need 4 indicators to be looking good and then i look at the nearist pivot point... if i am looking to go long then i should be just above the pivot which was the case in my NZD/USD trade. So i am pretty conifidant that my trade has a better then 50/50 on it. Can someone let me know if my thinking is messed up?? Thanks for all that provide info...

LAS 03:47 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
went long NZD/USD at .6503 profit 25 pips and stop at 25 pips. Any comments are welcome on my trade as i am still learning. I trade off of 15 min charts. Thanks for any input

Brooklyn mhi 03:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep
AUD/USD From the low fo 7/29 (.6928) to the high of 8/19 (.7261) the following fibs appear .7134, .7095, .7055

Arlington Spen 02:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk and GEP: thanks for clarifying that NZD move. I have a lot to learn.

nyc jk: good night and my smaller winnings add up because I do not trade one pair, but many simultaneously, so the overall leverage is high. I will give you an extreme example: you can bet the bank 1:20 on one trade, and you will have to use a tight automatic stop as well. OR you can place ten trades 1:2 margin each without stops. Profit potential is about the same and total margin is the same.

In the first case volatility is your enemy because it will most likely knockout you out of the trade with a small loss, not to mention that it will also cause you to toss and turn at night.

In the second case, you don't care much about volatility because many small fluctuations cancel each other out. But you can just as well make a good profit from ten smaller gains. And you can exit bad trades manually without panicking.

Diversification is the key, IMO.

Dallas GEP 02:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Yep trader, i was told about that around two years ago because I was confused as to why aud would long against usd when usd was longing against other pairs and that's what HE told me. And it's no secret that it is easier for the japanese to push around aud/jpy than it is to affect the other higher volume pairs. Aussie at the time was currency of choice for asian investors and I suppose not much has changed since then.

AUS trader 02:41 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:14 that BOJ trader is right.
the recent corrections by NZD & AUD were cross led. notice how quickly AUD/JPY bounced from the spike down to .77? the next test of .7950 could clear the way up to .81 and push AUD/USD above .7350. NZD/USD already poked above the 5 month high last week.

Dallas GEP 02:37 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
tarheel, So basically I would take some lots short at 198.00 and MORE at 198.60 if seen. WARNING to OTHERS....................GBP/JPY most dangerous pair on board at times. Be EXTEMELY careful MOST should NOT trade it.

Dallas GEP 02:35 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel as you know. GBP/JPY right now is PARTICULARLY difficult but SHORTS from 198.00 area if SEEN should work VERY VERY well.

Calabash TarHeel 02:33 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:18 GMT August 26, 2004
Well that brings us to the gbp/jpy. Short @ 198.65 didn't fill today, so where to from here. Can the gbp get any help from London tonight to offer a better short is the question as I see it.
Any comments appreciated!

nyc jk 02:32 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
sry one more thing Spen, NZD did no such thing in the real market, probably just some retail broker playing games. cheers

Dallas GEP 02:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Spen....I think that was a false spike in which case the platform providers should have put people back in their possies where they entered them.

nyc jk 02:30 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
spen - there are a lot of different methods out there, so a bit hard to speak just in general terms, but my own experience have found it better to take the more frequent, smaller losses than the less frequent bigger ones. makes sense that if you are using low leverage you won't have to contend with risk of ruin on a large move against you, however it is a tradeoff, because if you use too low leverage, you obviously won't be making much money on the moves in your favour. the ideal amount to risk on a trade is one in which you can afford and be comfortable in taking losses, but yet provides you with meaningful winning amounts. i'm off now so good luck figuring things out!

Philadelphia caba 02:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, any view on AUD/NZD? Thanks.

Arlington Spen 02:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Check out a 200-pip spike in NZD/USD today Aug 24 at 14:00 est!! The price shot up some 220 pis and returned within minutes. If someone was margined 1:50 on this currency pair, he or she lost everything in a blink of an eye.

Calabash TarHeel 02:23 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:14 GMT August 26, 2004
I don't know Gep, but it seems like it to me. So probably it is worth something. IMO.

Dallas GEP 02:18 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
One more note...I just had a message from a very close friend of mine who basically feels usd/jpy is a good short from HERE @ 110.15. He generally is right about these things so that IMO is worth a shot. Already short usd/chf so I am not in at this time .

Dallas GEP 02:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
One more Aussie note...I was told one time by a trader for the Bank of Japan that one of the keys to AUD/USD is to watch AUD/JPY. It generally moves FIRST and much faster than AUD/USD. FWIW (probably nothing!!! LOL)

Arlington Spen 02:12 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk: occasional big moves against you do not matter much if your leverage is low in any given trade. You can always pull the plug yourself if you see that this is not a computer spike. Of course you have to watch out for predictable big moves, like employment reports. IMO, persistent losses from automatic stops and spikes are worse than rare losses from real bad news. But on the other hand, I am not an experienced trader

Syd EM 02:07 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FWIW according to Tokyo dealers Aud/USD underpinned by lingering crosstrading interest among Japan securities firms buying aud/jpy relating to aussie uridashi bonds also Australian exporter bids in low 7000s resistance 7100-7126 for now however.

Calabash TarHeel 02:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 01:52 GMT August 26, 2004
Dallas GEP 01:46 GMT August 26, 2004

Fwiw: I'm not longing the aud from anywhere. I was hoping to see .7120 today to sell it.

Good Luck Guya!

Dallas GEP 02:05 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Well thanks for Aussie info guys. I will say that from a daytrading standpoint IMO AUD/USD is NOT one of the better pairs....it is tho IMO a great pair to position trade. I am reluctant to trade it very often because it moves way too slow for me and I lose patience with it to tell you the truth.

Prague JV 02:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
S:A:X:O:

Prague JV 01:58 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
DC / censored

I d like to note , that it is in human nature to feel exitment from makeing trades , which seems extraordinery and feel plesure from feeling great . However , only well caltulated risk ,understanding and sensible profit targets with unemotional aproach will keep you in the game .

nyc jk 01:57 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
GEP - .7025/30 a good place in the short term

Spen - probably makes sense most of the time, but I think you need to have some level where you just need to pull the pin and get out of the trade. there are occasions when prices have run multiple big figures without any meaningful pullbacks. the only way to definitely avoid getting whipsawed from time to time on stops is to just stop trading.

Syd EM 01:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP just think you have to watch situation daily as most top analysts at present dont have a clue , think the wide range between 68 - 73 best played

GA TJ 01:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:46 GMT August 26, 2004

Not about to venture a bottom to enter long from but I do see another 100-150 pips down for AUDUSD on this move. Unless of course .7100 is taken out then that might be a good time to go long.

Arlington Spen 01:51 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 00:02 GMT August 26, 2004

with an automatic stop, a spike in price will knock you out of a position, while the price returns to the same level as if nothing happened. Market price is about the same, but you lost 100 pips or more for nothing on your wide stop.

With a mental stop nothing happens to you when the hard stops are triggered, you just see a spike in a chart later and no change in your P/L.

You execute your mental stop if price action moves into unwanted territory naturally and stays there and gives you bad signals, through conscious trading of people as opposed to automatic trading of computers. The latter usually returns the price to the previous level as violently as it blows through the stops in the first place.

For this reason I prefer to diversify into many low margin trades, and can still leverage my account to good levels without overexposure to any one currency or to electronic runs on stops. Now all I need is to become profitable ;-)

Syd EM 01:49 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk agree with that market bias for now bullish USD


Interesting views
Economists not overly comfortable with upbeat outlook from Fed officials - Bernanke himself even seemed bit unsure in recent remarks, appearing to suggest Fed has wiggle room on inflation to hold policy steady if has to; "this is a classic situation for the Fed when you have a supply side shock to the economy, your first reaction is to freeze like a deer in the headlights. You have this Hobson's choice between fighting inflation or fighting a growth slowdown. Your natural reaction is to stall for time," says Lehman's Ethan Harris from Reuters.

Geneva DC 01:48 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV 01:08 GMT August 26, 2004
This is coppy from one of banks FREE SERVICE :

Which bank?

Dallas GEP 01:46 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Well OK guys, then where in your opinion, should we LONG aud/usd from?????

nyc jk 01:43 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
that's the very short term view of course, longer term implications as EM has just mentioned.

Syd EM 01:42 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Outlook for 2004-05 extremely strong with result consistent view economy robust underpinned by strong profits RBA bias to tighten rates will remain

nyc jk 01:40 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
well how about this mhi - the range of estimates I saw for the number was -2.0 to + 7.0%, with the median being just under 4.0 so the actual number, while within the range of estimates, was above the median and close to the high end of the range. This SHOULD have been a slightly positive number for the AUD, but as you can see from the price action, AUD couldn't muster any gains, which tells you something about the market positioning/bias/ order books. one might reasonably expect to see AUD test the support at .7025 ish now in the absence of anything else.

Syd EM 01:39 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Private new capital spending on buildings and equipment in Australia rose 5.8% to A$14.02 billion in the second quarter of 2004 from A$13.25 billion in the first quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.
Spending rose 9.2% from the second quarter of 2003.
Economists on average had expected that spending in the second quarter rose 4.0% on a quarterly basis
ABS

Brooklyn mhi 01:34 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Syd EM 01:31 GMT August 26, 2004
can you explain to the forum the meaning of the numbers please

Brooklyn mhi 01:33 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Australia 03-04 Capex 7th Estimate Up 0.8% Vs 02-03

Syd EM 01:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Australian 2Q New Capex +5.8% Vs +4.0% Consensus
Australia 04-05 Capex 3rd Estimate +8.8% Vs 2nd Estimate


Oh but sorry hk ab this information is not useful here

Brooklyn mhi 01:31 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Australian 2Q New Capex +5.8% Vs +4.0% Consensus
well i dont see this this moving anywhere

LA fxnew 01:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
thanks gep!

Brooklyn mhi 01:28 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Syd EM 23:36 GMT August 25, 2004
Just to add the previous number of the australian "private Capital Expenditure" was -2.5%

nyc jk 01:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
ab - I don't have a permanent anti - anything bias. As Jesse Livermore once said, "There is only one side to the market, it is not the bull side, it is not the bear side, it is the right side". So I am happy to go with any position that I think can make money. As for your contention that 90% of the newswire posts are USD bearish, well I am not going to go through and count them up, but if that is true, isn't that valuable information? perhaps it hints at an extreme in sentiment? why do you want to knock a potential good indicator off the forum?

Dallas GEP 01:26 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
FXnew, I think usd/jpy is in the MIDDLE of it' range. 110.40 good short and 109.50 good long

LA fxnew 01:25 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
gep:

what is your view on usd/jpy?
THanks

Dallas GEP 01:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
BTW 1.2710 TP and 1.2785 stop on that 1.2750 short USD/CHF. If you are now in this CHF short, you may want to cancel 1.2065 long because basically it is the same position

Dallas GEP 01:13 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
In @ 1.2750 short on USD/CHF....Order got taken.

AUS trader 01:11 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
NZD/USD & AUD/USD s/t side to up bias intact.
buy on dips within range .7000<->.7150 <->.7250 ->.7350

Prague JV 01:08 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
This is coppy from one of banks FREE SERVICE :

Bought GBP at 1.7980. Move stop-loss from 1.7875 to 1.7775. Keep profit target at 1.8650.
Buy GBP at 1.7830. Stop-loss: 1.7775. Profit target: 1.8650.

Bought EUR at 1.2078. Move stop-loss from 1.1980 to 1.1960. Keep profit target at 1.2500.
Buy EUR at 1.2030. Stop-loss: 1.1960. Profit target: 1.2500

NO COMMENT ( it tels you all )

hk ab 01:00 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
jk,EM//Guys, check your archive and see the % of your posts/newswire which are bearish in USD and probably, you will find it more than 80%.... or even 90%.....

What I meant was, many of you have an anti-US bias but not looking at the mkt with all perspective. You can't deny the fact that news-posters in this forum seldom put up any USD-bullish newswire's info here.

Good enough and see which turns out to be fatal.

I am enjoying my ride in eur/jpy and dlrjpy still.

That's said.
sorry farmacia if anything bothers you.

Dallas GEP 00:53 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
If you look closely at the bollinger bands (BB) on most of the pairs you will notice they are getting tighter meaning the trading ranges are narrowing. This happens in consolidation mode and generally means that a breakout of range COULD be forthcoming. Use LONGER timeframes and pay very close attention to the MACD's Stops while always important are even MORE important during consolidation stage because if procing breaks out of these ranges it COULD be sometime before your entry on you possie is seen again if you are going the wrong way.

wisconsin tim 00:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
110.49/109.43

Prague JV 00:52 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Japan"s main concern is the impact of weaker demand in the US and China
on its exports. Exports to China maintained double-digit growth in July, but
the 22.0% was down sharply from 36.3% in June. The rise in the surplus pushed
up the twelve-month total to a five-year high of Y12.42tln, up from just
Y9.41tln a year ago.

LA fxnew 00:50 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hi ..
does anyone have high and low for usd/jpy for yesterday?

Thanks

Syd EM 00:27 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk cheers.

nyc jk 00:24 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
cheers GEP. makes sense , choppy markets at moment.

EM - I trade the AUD fairly frequently, so seeing posts about the economic data, etc is something I find useful. gl

Syd EM 00:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk many thanks for your support, and agree some traders have access to immediate important information also data which is of great use

hk ab appears to enjoy seeing himself , judging the amount of his posts .

melbourne farmacia 00:15 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Have to agree... give it break ab.

Dallas GEP 00:14 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Actually JK, I find the chicken thing pretty humorous. But I absolutely agree that it is better to run less leverage and wider stops in today's environment. It used to be I could run 20 pip stops and stay in MOST of the time if I had a good entry but NO MORE IMO in today's environment ESPECIALLY on certain pairs like GBP/JPY. Also because market is thinner, platform operators tend to RUN stops more often with the resultant overrun on traditional support and reisistance points.

Prague JV 00:06 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JF . No I dont read GVI ,this one do the job for me . :)
gbp/jpy seems to me limited to bouth side in the mid term , but You as a experienced trader might consider have a go in usd/jpy as it IMHO offers something in the longer run . ( after we get from this little mess ),and sell when it becomes too obvious.

nyc jk 00:02 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
spen - that wasn't exactly what I meant, but I think that is a good idea in general, to err on the side of wider stops with lesser leverage. I guess I don't understand exactly how you execute your mental stops....if you just place a market order when the ccy pair gets to a certain level, how would that enable you to get whipsawed less than if you just left a stop order with your broker?

ab - you obviously have some sort of problem with anyone who posts a newswire report or an update of some economic numbers, etc but quite frankly there are people here that think that occasional highlights of that type of information is much, much more useful than hearing constant updates of the c9, quacking ducks, chickens, etc.

Syd EM 00:01 GMT August 26, 2004 Reply   
hk ab excuse me, who gave you the right to censor this forum if you dont like it dont censored read it

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

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