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Forex Forum Archive for 08/29/2004
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Ltn th 23:21 GMT August 29, 2004
Dublin Flip 18:27 GMT August 29//
Your assaement seems spot on to me. The way little jonny has come off the blocks this morning, bodes well for him and economy which is his no. 1 issue.
Va Raven 23:18 GMT August 29, 2004
Will payrolls break EUR/USD range?
The market is already shifting its focus to this week's payrolls release, but the case for a range break in euro/dollar from a large positive or negative surprise is not clear cut, says Trevor Dinmore, FX strategist at Deutsche Bank in London
The past four negative surprises on payrolls from the releases in February, March, July and August pushed euro/dollar higher by between 1% and 2% on the day of release. The rally in euro/dollar following the negative payrolls surprises in February, July and August was also extended by another 0.5–1% in the seven trading days after the release. But these effects failed to carry through the end of the month and establish a multi-week trend.
Turning to positive surprises on US payrolls, the pattern is more mixed. In May 2004, euro/dollar dropped by almost 2% following a strong US payrolls release, only to rebound and erase the loss over the following two weeks. April 2004, however, stands apart as it presented the first major positive surprise, so the sell-off in euro/dollar immediately following the release dictated a trend for the rest of the month.
Putting these pieces together, we believe a consensus (currently at 160,000) or disappointing payrolls result is likely to produce a euro/dollar rally but is not likely to force a break of the upper bound of the euro/dollar range (1.2460). A positive surprise on payrolls, however, may push euro/dollar to the bottom end of the range (1.1950). But we also believe a repeat of the April 2004 path is doubtful, as a positive payrolls surprise is unlikely to fundamentally alter the market's assumption about the probable path of Fed tightening.
Singapore Sfx 23:14 GMT August 29, 2004
So's the money they charge to view it, Raven ..
Va Raven 23:13 GMT August 29, 2004
Fast enough to make the point of speed pointless......
"EBS Live doubles data delivery frequency
LONDON – Electronic broker EBS last week announced an enhancement to its recently launched direct data feed EBS Live to double the frequency of its FX spot rate ‘time slices’ to 500 milliseconds.
Launched in February 2004, EBS Live aims to cut delays in the distribution of its spot prices from third parties such as Bloomberg, Moneyline and Reuters by distributing prices directly to banks from the EBS Spot dealing platform.
Bill Moran, EBS’s chief operating officer in London, said the new 500 milliseconds time slice doubles the frequency provided by the majority of other solutions, “while delivering the same levels of consistency and speed our customers have come to expect”.
EBS Live targets financial organisations that manage competitive e-commerce products or remote sales desks as well as arbitrage FX traders who need an accurate real-time view of the market".
Va Raven 23:11 GMT August 29, 2004
Interesting piece......time changes, the rule of game never does.....
Pension funds scramble for FX management
LONDON – UK pension funds' demand for foreign exchange management has gone through the roof over the past year, as trustees and managers seek to limit risk and improve returns.
The low growth offered by equities recently and the sharp fall seen by the dollar this year has led pension funds to focus on how they manage their currency exposure. Bill Muysken, global head of research for Mercer Investment Consulting in London, said: in the area of currency management has picked up substantially. For the year to date we've seen 20 clients asking for advice on currency compared with just four for the whole of 2003."
Anita Higgins, director of institutional business at BGI, also saw an upsurge of interest leading to significant flows of business. She said the group's currency funds now run £27 billion of assets compared with £5.8 billion in 1999. She reported significant interest in a currency-hedging fund BGI launched last year. Aimed at small and medium-sized UK pension funds, it offers hedging against the average UK pension fund's overseas exposure. "There is substantial demand for this type of product from those pension funds that do not have sufficient funds to manage the risk in-house or buy a bespoke tailored currency management solution," she said.
Similarly, the UK's Record Currency Management has seen a big increase in demand for its services that are tailored to pension funds. Chief executive Neil Record said funds under management doubled in the year to July to $16 billion.
He noted the recent devaluation of the dollar has ignited an interest in controlling currency risk. "For about 10 years the sterling/dollar rate traded in a fairly narrow range of about $1.40 to $1.60, so investors tended to forget that large fluctuations can happen. When the dollar fell to $1.90 to the pound, equity managers were finding that their efforts at effective stock selection were being scuppered by the weakness of the greenback, which instigated demand for stripping this risk out."
Muysken pointed to the two main factors driving demand for currency management: reduction or risk linked to holding equities listed in different world currencies, and a desire to add value by delivering returns through active currency management. He said while a greater proportion of US pension funds traditionally used some form of currency overlay, interest there has dipped, while it is now much higher in the UK.
Thanos Papsavvas, vice-president, global fixed-income at Credit Suisse Asset Management, noted a change in attitude among pension fund trustees was also adding to the demand for currency management. "With media attention on losses incurred by ignoring currencies and more liberal rules on where pension monies can be invested, trustees are starting to look at how it can be managed to their advantage," he said.
Rio 23:00 GMT August 29, 2004
Can you rate the news providers you mentioned? Or just tell me what you now about each one. I am tired to wait a a minute, couple of minutes or more to see the news in censored platform!
Rio 22:55 GMT August 29, 2004
Barcelona...did you check frequently the akmos statistics to see how many times or in what percentage the bigger possitions are wrong?
I just thought to do it, but never did!
PARIS DENIS 20:51 GMT August 29, 2004
Thank you Raton,
Chart, news, or economic fundamentals.... who is right ?
For my opinion,
The chart give the way it goes and the news the time when everybody go on in the same way.
And you all what is the best way to have start and stop point to catch the wind ?
Goes (NL) B747 19:46 GMT August 29, 2004
good evening all,
the biggest news during the weekend were the no attention to Russia's "discovery" that both planes crashed due to terrorism.
imo (only imo), we see (the beginning of) establishment of US, Russia, Japan & China partnership (industrial powers)...we do not talk about days, weeks or months but well about years.
Europe just received their thank you calls from Iraq & Iran for their investment in the future of these countries since the 70's...I say that Europe (including UK) cannot and do not understand how to make business outside of Europe.
The old continent proved (again) that where "credit insurance" stops it is where they raise the white flag as their businessmen cannot make business on human base/levels.
going short against JPY is very risky as there are too many points (i.e. prices) that JPY never print again after hitting the opposite currency. (example: JPY will hit 80 before it will hit 140 against USD)
gt all and take care
*** read carefuly, maybe by me being wrong (or not) it will enlighten someone for his lifetime shot ***
Ldn 19:26 GMT August 29, 2004
PARIS DENIS the best I personally have come across is Dow Jones because it gives you a selection of up to the minute news for funadamentals and technicals . FWIW
LAX-LGB SNP 18:56 GMT August 29, 2004
looking to load up on gbpchf longs on dips below 2.29
usdjpy looks good ahead of rising daily TL near the mid-109s
wanted to buy eurusd as long as 1.2023 held but very skeptical now since price has closed below weekly 50 sma ...
same goes for gbpusd ahead of 1.7865 but expecting sub-1.76 sometime soon
its may be time to look @ USDEUR and USDGBP charts ...
Dublin Flip 18:27 GMT August 29, 2004
The Aussie election "news" may see some initial knee-jerk selling due to early morning thing liquidty but it's not exactly "out of left field" stuff. As has been discussed here and anywhere over the past few weeks including friday a Oct9 election (after the olympics and twin ozzie football grand final weekends) was largely expected by anyone with a minimum of intrest in politics or who work in financial markets.
I'd say the biggest driver of the ozz this week will be the USD direction not something that has been heavily discounted for months now. The over-riding USD +ve bias held sway last week and therefore usual trading orthodoxy assumes it should continue at least into the start of this week. If anything some of the uncertainy has been lifted thanks to Howard pulling the trigger and deciding to allow the Australian domestic intrest in the US electoral timetable to uncontrollably affect his fortunes. Apart from Bush, Tony Blair is having some tests of his own so I guess it's smarter politics to be the first of the triumvirate to clarify ones future than allow the uncertain fortunes of the others to unduly influence his own.
Boca Raton 18:25 GMT August 29, 2004
There are several of the out there. 1. Reuters. 2. Bloomberg. 3. Moneyline/Telerate. 4. Associated Press. Those are as you say "real time". Also, you have to pay them. Nothing is for free in FX. It is nice to see someone on this forum care about fundamentals and news, rather than the typical moon phase/list a thousand numbers/chicken counters. Best of luck to you.
PARIS DENIS 18:18 GMT August 29, 2004
Someone woukd be kind to give me the best real_time news web site ?
nyc jk 18:17 GMT August 29, 2004
oh of course, bkk. just who were you referring to then?
Bangkok bkk 18:04 GMT August 29, 2004
nyc jk 17:54 GMT August 29, 2004
jk// I NEVER said it was you. You yourself should read my previous post a bit more clearly before you make anymore wrongheaded comments. (I said "some of it")
nyc jk 17:54 GMT August 29, 2004
bkk - as part of an agreement with Jay, I won't be carrying over any of the debate from last week with ab. As far as YOUR comments go though re "jealousy", I would suggest that nothing could be farther from the truth and you may want to read my posts a bit more clearly before you make anymore wrongheaded comments.
Bangkok bkk 17:46 GMT August 29, 2004
hk ab 16:48 GMT August 29, 2004
ab// I also agree with sar jf.
Do not waste your precious time reply to those who keep bashing you. You know what? I think some of it is just jealously.
GL.& GT. as always
sar jf 17:21 GMT August 29, 2004
ab - why let things worry u - fx trading is not judged in terms of who is right - today or tomorrow - its judged by a longer term picture than that- you should not let day to day comments interupt your trading thoughts.... and thats the price everyone pays by stating a view or comment you open yourself up to potential criticism - but like they say "nothing ventured nothing gained " gl/gt
ny amc 17:16 GMT August 29, 2004
HK....AB....what are your thoughts on usdchf here. thanks
hk ab 16:48 GMT August 29, 2004
TarHeel//Just leave them, time will tell the truth, the ULTIMATE truth.
I don't feel easy to argue here anymore for who's right/who's wrong. If you are interested to contact me, please contact Jay for my email.
Remember ONCE some well respected traders said, "Trends are set, newswires-trading leads to death." JIMVHO.
nt//aud/nzd might be affected a little by the election but the 1.2 anticipated goals are set. It could be done by a fast rallying of aud later after a true bottom found.
I thought fx success are from real indicators/flow infos (not freebies news/legends.) But it seems to me there are some simulations of fore-xnews with gvi lately.
Martin/Dr. Q/B747, credits go to you always.
Ltn th 16:16 GMT August 29, 2004
Sorry about that.
Taiwan JJK 13:25 GMT August 29, 2004
What effect do you think the Australian election will have on the AUD tomorrow? Up or down?
Calabash TarHeel 13:24 GMT August 29, 2004
Ldn 06:43 GMT August 29, 2004
Slowdown in US growth proves greater than thought
If nothing else you are consistent. Regardless of your doom and gloom posts, don't see myself taking up residence under a bridge any time soon.
Global-View Research 10:45 GMT August 29, 2004
September crucial for dollar - ny IINVRSTICA
US economic conditions are likely to become clearer over the next 2-3 weeks. This should also provide greater market direction, especially as liquidity will increase after the summer. Growth trends will be important and the US currency will attempt to rally further if the data is strong. A series of weak reports would, however be damaging, especially as it would lessen the chances of a Fed monetary tightening... For complete update, go to our new Research section CLICK HERE
Palma GMJ 09:52 GMT August 29, 2004
Paris: Try Reuters.com
Ldn 06:43 GMT August 29, 2004
Slowdown in US growth proves greater than thought
By Christopher Swann in Washington
The Financial Times
The US economy slowed even more abruptly than previously thought in the second quarter of this year, further tarnishing the economic record of President George W. Bush ahead of November's election and next week's Republican convention.
The US growth rate slowed to an annualised 2.8 per cent between April and June, down from an initial estimate of 3 per cent. The quarter was the most sluggish since the first three months of 2003, and well below the 4.5 per cent growth registered at the start of 2004.
Roger Altman, economic adviser to John Kerry and deputy Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton, said the figures underlined the Bush administration's economic failure.
“The economy is clearly not growing at the fastest rate in 20 years, as the Bush administration has been saying,” he said. “This administration's record on jobs and incomes is the worst in 70 years.”
The downward revision to gross domestic product came a day after the Census Bureau released figures showing that 1.3m people slid into poverty last year, the total without medical insurance rose by 1.4m, and median real income had stagnated.
The scaling back of the growth estimate stemmed largely from a further widening of the US trade deficit. Export growth was revised lower to 6.1 per cent from 13.2 per cent, and the rise in imports revised higher to 14.1 per cent from 9.3 per cent. These changes shaved 1.3 percentage points off the earlier growth estimate. “These figures reinforce the sense that the quarter was generally a big disappointment, after four very strong quarters of growth,” said Geoffrey Somes, an analyst at Economy.com.
An upward revision to consumption growth from 1 to 1.6 per cent provided only modest comfort. Economists said demand had remained anaemic.
The impact of the deteriorating trade position was partly offset by stronger inventory-building by companies. Business accumulated an additional $57.7bn (€48bn, £32.2bn) of inventories at an annualised rate over the second quarter up from $40bn in the first. But some economists worried that this reflected companies' inability to sell their backlog of supplies, rather than a conscious effort to add to reserves in the expectation of stronger demand.
Ldn 05:51 GMT August 29, 2004
Two Arrested In Alleged NY Subway Bomb Plot
NEW YORK (AP)--A U.S. citizen and a Pakistani national were arrested in connection with an alleged plot to bomb a subway station in midtown Manhattan and possibly other locations around the city, police said.
hong kong nt 04:28 GMT August 29, 2004
AB - your beloved AUD/NZD may see MT low at 1.07...
hong kong nt 04:23 GMT August 29, 2004
AB -- is it 9 lots?
hk ab 14:02 GMT August 27, 2004
shrot from .6545-.6585 average 6565 for 8 lots.
hk ab 07:09 GMT August 27, 2004
syd//p/t and reloading starting .6545 for every 5 pips.
PARIS 03:41 GMT August 29, 2004
Am looking for the best real-time news website to get on the wave on time and not delayed looking the profit passing over me. Thanks for any good adress.
Gold Coast martin 03:35 GMT August 29, 2004
Gold Coast martin 03:34 GMT August 29, 2004
AUSTRALIAN PM HOWARD ANNOUNCES THE 9TH OF OCTOBER AS OFFICIAL DATE FOR A FEDERAL ELECTION...impact on the aud will be felt on mondays trading...g/t
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A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
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