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Forex Forum Archive for 09/03/2004

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Portishead Portishead 23:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas DH 22:59 GMT September 3, 2004

playing the breakout from a news report was (opertaive word: WAS) one of my "bread n butter" strategies (approximate: close to 80% P/L with a 5:1 risk ratio!). with the brokers now not guaranteeing fills/stops you'd either need to find a new broker or re-write yr trading strategy. gt

saratoga sam 23:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas DH contact Jay (Host) for my email. Its the weekend so it may be sometime before contact is made. Good weekend.

Philadelphia caba 23:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:17 GMT September 3, 2004
ELC, It is my opinion that straddle trades rarely work but as an example on EUR/USD you COULD try a short order @ 1.2130 with stop @ 1,2170 and also a LONG order at 1.2240 with stop at 1.2200. This of course assumes we have a big number either way.

I've tried today (trading with censored), just changed a short order @ 1.2120 with stop @ 1.2160. Order placed about 6:30 AM before went out. Order filled exactly and I closed with +64 pips.

Dallas DH 23:05 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone knows how fxsolutions fares?

Dallas DH 22:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
We had orders on both sides and they weren't filled at designated prices nor anywhere near designated prices, plus our stop-losses were totally ignored resulting in losses.

They are "crooks" so beware and consider trading thru some other firm.

Dallas DH 22:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Hey, is there anyone whom trades with Forex.com. They shafted me and my buddy this morning and I know there's more of us out there!

bos rc 22:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
funny thing pip pirate, I didnt have to reread the post, just gose to show what the market can do to the mind, make sense out or disorder....wll done

wisconsin tim 22:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ok Bahrain that is just eerie and interesting

across these pairs: (in pips)
AUD$ +5000
NDZ$ +5372
GBP$ +2900
EUR$ see below
$YEN +4637
EURYEN +5527
GBPYEN +6713
EURGBP -600

Rivonia PipPirate 21:35 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabridge Uinervtisy it deosn’t mttaer in what oredr the ltteers in a word are, the olny iprmoatnt thnig is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit palcae.

The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it wouthit a porbelm. This is bcuseae the human mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by itslef, but the wrod as a wlohe.

Vancouver BC WLV 21:24 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bon Tom: I have no idea how it would play out but for sure they will keep the USD strong. I was nearly wiped out this AM on my long in EUR/USD when it gapped down about 100 pips; I was lucky my stoploss at 15 pips was honored since it was guaranteed by my broker.

wisconsin tim 21:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hey bahrain not too bad for a breakout system, take a little to do the max drawdown, consec winners/losers

Since 12/17/01
Max Loser -197
Max Winner 222
Number Losers 176
Number Winners 232
Total Trades 408
Gross Losers -8081
Gross Winners 13761
Net 5680
Average Winner 59
Average Loser -46

Ave Win/Ave Loss ratio 1.29
Win/Loss ratio 1.32
Profit Factor 1.70

Pecs Andras 21:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Anybody has the current rate of NDZ/USD? TIA

Bon Tom 20:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver BC WLV 20:28:I think u right @100%and this cost me a lot to be honest,and the Q now are we going to break the range,or we will play this range 1,195-1,246 till the end of the election.TIA

wisconsin tim 20:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim

straightened out ... no I don't think they sleep =D

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
The equation is for day trading anyways...
Have to remove orders if no go...

Vancouver BC WLV 20:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
The election manipulation is on. This Bush administration will do anything to win a second term. Does anybody really believe the job report to be truthful?

wisconsin tim 20:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
well if i'd do the calc right LOL

then breakout system is +8232 pips vs fade 360 stops of 393

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Yeah...But remmeber Binomial rule of 5 to 7 runs
"Runs test in Binomial Expirement"
IF some thing rallies 5 to 7 days --->
Has to take a break

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I have noticed this 80% for years

wisconsin tim 20:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
last 2 trades (no data past 8/19)

08/06/04 Short (1.1906) Long (1.2228) -- we go long
High 1.2289 Lo 1.2043 Close 1.2277 Net +49

08/09/04 Short (1.1912) Long (1.2234) -- we go long again
High 1.2289 Lo 1.2244 Close 1.2265 Net +31

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 22%
When Momentum close to 80%...or 20%

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:19 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Break Out happen only 32% of the time

wisconsin tim 20:17 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
if you use it as a breakout [(ie) going long at the higher number and short at the smaller number] and using the opposite number as the stop loss you would of netted 3878 pips assuming all positions were closed at 0:00 GMT max winning position was 225 pips max loser was -194 pips

No positions were stopped out for max risk.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
as a breakout system closing at 0:00GMT (no spread) since 2001

0.3878 total pips
0.0225 max winner
-0.0194 max loser

??

wisconsin tim 20:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
on a daily basis you "might" (low of day was lower than 10*spread stop) have been stopped out fading the signals 188 times of 205 trades

Bruxville Jim 20:11 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Breakout vs. Reversal rule..

wisconsin tim 20:07 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bahrain

what do you want me to explain??

?? isn't much to go on

Bruxville Jim 20:07 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain// Well, I'll see how it works out... Maybe you'll come up with a simple mathematical TP rule later:) Thanks for this one (1.0134) though...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Wisc...??

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Jim...U will Thank me for the rest of Your life.
Enjoy it!

syd 20:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
IMM Commitment Data Released On 03 September

CAD/USD - Net Long 29,138 from Net Long 33,743 the Week of August 24 As expected, last week's highest net long position this year, combined with the
failure to break 1.2950 last week, saw a paring of longs. But with USD/CAD still
hovering near 1.30 despite the stronger USD, most longs may still hold their positions except for position-squaring likely ahead of the BOC policy news

AUD/USD - Net Long 4,738 From Net Long 7,279 the Week of August 24 As expected, last week's end-of-week sell-off saw AUD longs further pared to the
lowest levels since July 27th. The large AUD selling seen Thursday and Friday
should see longs further pared, possibly to flat positions into next week

EUR/USD - Net Long 20,827 From Net Long 24,616 From the Week of August 24 As expected, EUR longs were pared further following last week's test of 1.2000.
These are the lowest net longs in three weeks. The pullback today under 1.2100
should see longs edge lower again next week as well.

GBP/USD - Net Long 7,089 From Net long 7,259 the Week of August 24 As expected, Cable longs were further pared by the fall under 1.7900 last week.
This weeks Cable close around 1.7755 should see longs decline further next week.
Longs are the lowest since May 25th.

JPY/USD - Net Long 525 From Net short -969 the Week of August 24 As anticipated, the convincing break under 109.00 encouraged net long positions
for the first time since July 20th. However, today's USD/JPY rally above 110.50
should see net shorts emerge again next week.

wisconsin tim 20:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
using 0:00GMT close as auto close of position with opposite as stop loss you would have those pips from 12/17/01 to 8/19/04 minus spread of course. I can calculate "real" net later.

You were never stopped out of a position using opposite ... doing fade test now on dailys.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes Sam...
Clever Observation.
Is it working?

Dallas GEP 20:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed long eur/usd @ 1.2061 +6 FLAT now See you guys Sunday

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
am I getting Smiling faces Yet?...No Ha?

saratoga sam 19:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain does that value stay fairly constant or is it something that needs to be adjusted on a day to day basis? If it changes then will you be posting the new constant for those that day trade? Have a good weekend.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Wis//
Expalin pls

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 19:50 GMT September 3, 2004 //
Jim..That equation will save time, Money...and I bet it will do better then many good traders.
Just Use it!

wisconsin tim 19:52 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
as a breakout system closing at 0:00GMT (no spread) since 2001

0.3878 total pips
0.0225 max winner
-0.0194 max loser

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Did I Hear "nice equation"?...Yeah...I think I did

Bruxville Jim 19:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, c'mon, being glued to screen doesn't always work as the best TP tool... lol
btw, it's hard to test such rule:))

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
8/30/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2046;1.2193;1.2042;1.2182
8/29/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2014;1.2068;1.1986;1.2046
8/28/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2009;1.2025;1.1998;1.2014
8/26/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2100;1.2134;1.2004;1.2009
8/25/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2082;1.2121;1.2040;1.2100
8/24/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2080;1.2115;1.2050;1.2082
8/23/2004 5:00:00 PM;1.2140;1.2166;1.2061;1.2080
Open High Low Close
Try it with data...I am sure U will smill sleep tonight.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
30 pips + Glued to the screen Jim

Bruxville Jim 19:45 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain// What is the rule to test? Sell potential high (buy potential low) with a stop of 30 pips (10*spread)? T/P rule?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
saratoga sam 19:41 GMT September 3, 2004
Bahrain curious as to what is the 1.0136? How is that calculated? Thanks.
///
Someone offer a Gift...Do You ask them where they got that from?.. :)
Sorry I can't do that!!

saratoga sam 19:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain curious as to what is the 1.0136? How is that calculated? Thanks.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
1) all it says take yesterday High divide by 1.0136
You get today's Low (appro)
2) Yesterday Low*1.0136
You get today's High (appro)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:35 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
approximaltly

wisconsin tim 19:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bahrain I would but what is ~

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Equation might shock some people here.. :)

paris jb 19:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Arlington Spen 19:15 GMT

discipline is for sure an answerr, but it realy hurt to accept

brokers aleas , trading is already difficult business by itself,

it doesnt need any additional brokers ingredient lol

Dallas MD 19:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your on the mark explanation. I closed it for +10 pips. Have a great weekend.

Gold Coast martin 19:12 GMT September 3, 2004
Dallas MD 18:53 GMT September 3, 2004
Take small profit as euro will not breach 12082 today and come monday it will resume a downward bias with a retracement coming in the afternoon of of tuesdays ny trading.......too long to wait ...not enough reward for the risk(including weekend}....g/t

london 19:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
My thoughts this weekend to all those Russian families forever affected by todays tragic events, some latest reports claiming 300-500 may be dead, mainly children..

peaceful w/e all

Gen dk 19:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
anyone running a simualtion?

Gold Coast martin 19:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Deepest sympathy go to the people of russia for the terrible loss,and our thoughts are with the people of florida over w/end,,,,OMIL,VV,BOCA....stay safe ....all have a good weekend....g/t g/l

Arlington Spen 19:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
paris jb 18:50 GMT September 3, 2004

Well brokers are a bit hypocritical regarding "no commissions" and "guaranteed orders". But I don't believe more regulation is the answer. The answer is individual discipline, IMO.

What cracks me up is the claim that you pay no commissions on a trade margined 400:1, "only a fixed spread". On EUR/USD, one is actually paying the broker about 10% of one's capital just to enter this kind of trade.

The business is very lucrative for brokers, no doubt.


Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I Bet AB is running simulation on that equation...Right? AB

Gold Coast martin 19:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 18:53 GMT September 3, 2004
Take small profit as euro will not breach 12082 today and come monday it will resume a downward bias with a retracement coming in the afternoon of of tuesdays ny trading.......too long to wait ...not enough reward for the risk(including weekend}....g/t

Dallas MD 19:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I closed it. Have a great weekend!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys...
Easy way to Day Trade the euro is;
Zig Zag...
assume You are in day(t=1)
then the Low(t)~High(t-1)/1.0134
and The High(t)~Low(t-1)*1.0134
Get out with anything
Try that simple equation...You will better Off...

Dallas MD 18:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
In the same boat with my broker. I am long EUR/USD @ 1.2058, should I hold them until Tuesday or take the small profit?

paris jb 18:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Arlington Spen 17:56 GMT

well it's certainely a tough issue but i think unless users organised themself in group or something like that , some brokers will exagerate using such volatility as excuses,

my broker just told me to wait again after being told since 4 hours that they need 4 hours to revue my case!!

london chippie 18:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
o/b...not o/s

london chippie 18:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP...no worries...just browsed the archives.....see you were limited out at .6778....and ta for last responce........i think i'll hold out for 6705.....divrgence on hrly graph and daily still o/s.....see how far this puppy can stretch!

paris jb 18:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 17:56 GMT

well mine is not answeering, i think they r pro in stoling money, they already stoled me twice, i should change them

GER ad 18:19 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD crosses,
Closed all positions for a small profit.
Have a nice weekend.

chicago jms 18:19 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone think usd/jpy will hit 111?

Los Angeles ss 17:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone recall what the fx markets did over Labor day weekend into the London session tuesday morning last year?

London chippie 17:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP ...you still short eur/gbp.......?

Los Angeles ss 17:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Paris jb -- I had an experience once with my broker in a similiar situation, think it was last month when the same data came out. Their trading platform seized up for many seconds and orders disappeared. I called them and they referred me to a manager to research. They called me back and reinstated the order so I ended up in very good shape. So their desk dealers can do this for you if you approach it in the right manner, and talk to a manager directly. Might want to give it a shot. Good luck.

Arlington Spen 17:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
One of my brokers dropped the guarantee on stops last week. I guess, such a guarantee can put a broker out of business after one catastrophic price move, at least wipe out all the profits. If a brokers holds the amount of clients positions many times its capital, then such a guarantee would be a real problem. Anyway, I personally wouldn't count on those stop guarantees. Better diversify, lower leverage per trade, and use wider or mental stops. IMO

paris jb 17:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 17:44 GMT

well this explanation is quit acceptable but what about a sell order euro at 12142 this morning?? it just disappear from my order window and broker said volatility!!!! ~ 60 pip far away

from market price before number and broker said volatility !!!!

well they exagerate definitly and cftc should do something

Los Angeles ss 17:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD -- I think all brokers are reinforcing this policy. I called mine, and they clarified the policy somewhat, in that they will guarentee your stop order to the nearest price if the price skips across your stop price during volatile times. These skips may occur in a 15 -30 pip spread as volatile movement occurs. So for example this morning, if you had a stop on cable at 1.7880 when it was trading at 1.7920 and moved down suddenly, your stop might have been executed within 15-30 pips of your 1.7880 stop, say at 1.7860. In any event, that is the way my broker explained it to me so you would be somewhat protected by a stop nevertheless.

wisconsin tim 17:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
are all retail platforms pretty screwy or would one be better served going someplace like censored (or is it just the same)

they seem to have better spreads than most, thinking of switching any comments on them

paris jb 17:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas MD 17:18 GMT

welcome to the club MD, u may c what hapened to me below

also my broker advertise here and evrywhere,

they run after small capital and accept as small as 300$ to open an account just to stoped out people on margin call!!!

Gold Coast martin 17:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EURO....RESISTANCE LEVEL AT 12042.....will not be breached today,,,,,look for breach of above level at commencent of asian session monday with a daily target of 11943 by end of euro trading.....resistance level for aud 6887..will not be breached convincingly today...look for breach of above level with a daily target 6827..timeframe same as euro....nzd..resistance at 6426 .no breach today....breach on monday with target of 6378..timeframe same as aussie and euro......g/t to all....

CAIRO AG 17:35 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Lisbon: I suggest that u start getting used with 4h, daily and weekly charts cause in such existiong situations, 1 h charts will probably NOT HELP U TO DETECT WHAT IS NEXT.

GL & GT

Dallas MD 17:18 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I just found out that my broker, which advertises on this forum, doesn't guarantee Stop Entries. So much for a good day.

Lisbon eueu 17:16 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd 5-min chart short but 1-min chart is nt???

wisconsin tim 17:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
"When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us."

--Alexander Graham Bell

with that in mind shorting eur here looking for the 20's

Lisbon eueu 17:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
anybody have a view on how will be the opening of eur/usd after holiday?

Brooklyn mhi 16:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bill Clinton In Hospital After Heart Attack -NYT -4-
Clinton felt chest pains the last couple of days at his home in Chappaqua, N.Y., north of New York City, Fox News said.

He first went to a hospital near his home in Westchester County. After tests, he was transferred to Colombia Presbyterian Hosptial in New York City. Tests there found blockage in his arteries and doctors are considering bypass surgery, Fox said.

prague viktor 16:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin:yes mate Oil man advices are like amoney in the bank G/W

Sydney Alimin 16:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
UAE Oil man 15:48 GMT September 1, 2004
GBP/$ retracing again most of the gains , time for a pullback in euro?
Watch 1.2222 and 1.2105 for the next conclusive move.


UAE Oil man 15:17 GMT August 17, 2004
Gbp/$ retraced most of the gains from the friday trade.
Last week the same configuration happened with euro following a bit later..
I guess watching 1.2270 on euro$ should be conclusive.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
well done on both occasions Oil man!! cheers mate
have a good and safe w/e everyone

Lisbon eueu 16:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd good level to short till the end of day target 1.2040

kong kong nt 16:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
AB -- May I know how you get .6666 on AUD?

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Maybe not...but at least we are on the runway. Hopefully we are pointed in the right direction but who REALLY knows?? LOL

Antwerp Tom 16:18 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, i think we're taking off

Antwerp Tom 16:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
B747 same to you (inderdaad) enjoy the weekend

NYC PCM 16:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Everybody have a good weekend.

short EUR for at least a couple of weeks

Goes (NL) B747 16:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OK...just finished my FX trading week !!!

both daily targets were printing: USD/JPY @ 110.50 & EUR/USD below 1.2050

healthy, good & successful weekend to all

indonesia newbie 16:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
paris i already send email to jay
and i think it is way need long time before i got reply
maybe u can send me ur email at [email protected] dot com
(sorrie jay)

Goes (NL) B747 16:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 16:03 GMT September 3, 2004

dit moet een grapje zijn !!! :-)


gt

Antwerp Tom 16:05 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, i'm one of the guys with less sense than you LOL

paris jb 16:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:56 GMT

yes market extremly oversold but they may want 120 before

back to market after labor day??

I shorted gbp at 17810 and euro at 12080 and still short after my broker stole my initial position ....

Antwerp Tom 16:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
long €/$ 1.2055 TP 1.2090 (labourday weekend, don't wanna be long $)

Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Please understand guys there is a high degree of risk on thse dollar bear possies. Keep stops tight and possies relatively small. People with more sense than me probably shouldn't trade at all right now.

paris jb 16:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 15:36 GMT

thank u mate

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
currencies dont change the direction b4 long w/e

i d like to be eurobuyer at 2030 if it ever gets there

besides buy signal hasnt been generated on 1hr

LA fxnew 15:57 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gep:
you are safe by 3 pips now :)

Dallas GEP 15:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:05 GMT September 3, 2004
Sell level on Euro now IMO is 1.2130/35, GBP sell level 1.7845, USD/CHF buy level 1.2625 NO MORE THAN 30 PIP STOPS!!!!

Well I guess we need some usd sell levels now!!!
LONG 1.2045 with 1,2035 stop on EUr/USD
SHORT 1.2740 with 1.2765 stop on usd/chf
LONG 1.7750 with 1.7735 stop on gbp/usd

SMALL please, don't bet the FARM!!!!


paris jb 15:54 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
indonesia newbie 15:44 GMT

offcorse mate,

my email at global view should be updated will send to jay my new email and u can ask him to email me,

Lisbon eueu 15:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EYR/USD walking towrd 1.2000 in lazy steps but anyway it will reach it before the close of this session

melbourne farmacia 15:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Running the old fibo calculator suggests gbp/usd 1.7735 this round fwiw

LA fxnew 15:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gep:
looks like your possie is in danger

indonesia newbie 15:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
to paris jb seriusly
i need somethink to discuss about
and ur problem is similar wityh me,before this they asked me to wait two hours and then said it is because of volative.so plis can we discuss about it??

Dallas GEP 15:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I see 1.2040 as a bottom TODAY on EUR/USD, but I could be wrong (it has happened before!!! LOL)

Dallas GEP 15:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
1.2037 , NO MORE on eur/usd long STOP

GER ad 15:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Shorted CAD on crosses AUD/CAD; GBP/CAD; EUR/CAD (0.8970; 2.3075;1.5655) the big risk is in AUD/CAD but also the bigger potential.

SanFrancisco tg 15:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - been taking little nibbles long sterling on bounces of 50 which is against the bias, so I'm not really doing what I normally would haha, but its working. I think 50 euro might go that way too but sure is contrarian eh?

jb - search commidity trading futures commission, and national futures association for help.

Austin rb 15:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I guess I need to start increasing range on straddle entry. When I looked at one minute chart there was 40 pip range prior to release of news to take out limit and stop orders

Goes (NL) B747 15:35 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT September 3, 2004

good afternoon,

too risky from my point of view, big money coming in to support short EUR/USD 14:30-15:10 EST (ex. NYC)

as long we do not know how hard will be the move under 1.2050 we will not be able to long EUR/USD and not matter for how many pips.

anyway, you talk about few pips of loss - but losing pip is a losing pip :-)

gt

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
LISBON, technically you are absolutely right BUT I bet there is SOMETHING at 1.2050. Possie and risk is small

indonesia newbie 15:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi paris i got similar prob here,maybe we can do some chit chat cause i'm really f*ck up

Lisbon eueu 15:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas becarefule the rally will break 1.2000

Pecs Andras 15:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Lisbon eueu 15:24 GMT September 3, 2004
My platform closes at 20:00 GMT I think

FloridA vv 15:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 15:26 GMT September 3, 2004

Having a print screen of your trade station will enable you to fight your money back.

paris jb 15:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 15:13 GMT
yes they use volatility as excuses, when order is 10 or 20 pip far away market one can undrstand that it could not be filled

but i had order ~60 pip far away market, since they cant defend how it could not be filled my broker just erased this order from my orders waiting window !!!!!

CFTC should do something

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
WEll dammm...just said that BUT I will am in SMALL long on EUR/USD at 1.2055 with 1.2040 stop, target 1.2085

Sydney Alimin 15:26 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 15:20 GMT September 3, 2004

yeah, that's a very good idea but perhaps a slippage like this there won't be much I can do,will there? in the case of paris jb, that's a serious one though

paris jb 15:25 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 15:20 GMT


they just told me they need another 4 hours to let me know about their resolution !!!!

last october i won a prize, they never paid me, since it was 250$ i let it go ,but this time it's more than 7k$ we r talking about
i will not let things go

so pleazeany one have a link to cftc claims???

Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OK looking at price action, probably NOT good to pick bottom on USD. Better to buy usd on dips against it.

Lisbon eueu 15:24 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
pecs do you know when the market will be closed today ....eur/usd will surely break that level if the market closed at its regular time

hk ab 15:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gold is not a betrayer.

hk ab 15:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
no bounce on aud >.6950 will mean .67xx coming soon.

Lisbon eueu 15:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
plz

Pecs Andras 15:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Are we going to break this 2050 barrier tonight? What do you guys think?

SanFrancisco tg 15:20 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jb - yes go to the CFTC. Anyone being taken by a US firm during economic releases should. The more who do the better the retail firms will be forced to perform.

Lisbon eueu 15:20 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
when did the market close today?

FloridA vv 15:20 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Just added Usd/Cad longs @ 1.2995. Time to catch up with the others

Syd. Alimin always make a "print screen" before important data release. It will be you insurance.

Sydney Alimin 15:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Austin rb 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004

yes, i did straddle on gbp before, it was 30-40 pips from price prior to data release but the stupid broker 3T slipped my stop sell price by 14 pips 25 minutes after data so that left me 25 minutes feeling nervous...when i called them they said they couldn't decide on which price to fill in my order immediately due to volatility after data release...as usual excuses excuses

paris jb 15:11 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:02 GMT

this time i certainely will go to CFTC, coz i also had a sell order at 12142 far away from euro market before number,
this order just disapeared from my orders waiting window!!!!

NYC PCM 15:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Our first obvious target is now the 8/30 low. We might even test that today.

Sydney Alimin 15:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
wisconsin tim 14:56 GMT September 3, 2004

you are not alone mate, now i am a bit pissed off having to go out for a while 1 hour ago

Sydney Alimin 15:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
LOL, came back and saw euro and gbp go down more

hk ab 15:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
If people say real trend starts from Sept, so, does it mean now the trend for the coming months is USD long?
Trust the T.A. not the news-trading games.....

Some of my positions were not posted here due to the incidents and after taking profit tonight, I think it's good to take a break from fx, as well as gv.

All in all, charts have included many expected events....

GT 747, martin.

nyc jk 15:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jb - well that's really bad then. I guess all you can do is point out the time of the deal to them and how much margin was avaiable and hopefully they will make you whole. I think I know the clowns you are dealing with based on something you said previously, so I wouldn't expect to hear anything back real soon, they are terrible when it comes to response time based on some stories I have heard. if they are truly f..g you over, you can threaten to file a reparations claim with the CFTC and see if that gets you anywhere.

GA TJ 15:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Occasionally I take a peek at what IFR is doing. they just sold the Swissy. I was Short Swissy until taken out with this mornings spike (at Triple digit profit). I am wondering what they see that I don't. I have missed a few things in the past. But I think that this data has the potential to move Swissy to the long side next week. Please no commentary pro or con about IFR.

Is anyone else selling Swissy?

wisconsin tim 14:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
well I did it again this Friday ... exited positions too early

I need a partner to control my winning positions ... losing positions are easy, hit your number get out. I have to beat this do not let a winner turn to a loser mentality out me, or something.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin// As far as your long goes, I say yes based on the 1 week/1 year EUR/USD chart and the fact that the US econ is really all that solid (yet). I still say it appears we are going long (big picture) big time generally the rest of this year. You may have to wait but I think it's coming. My friend Mex sjs disagrees with me, he sees a trend change coming involving a long term short of that pair. I say this because he's right A LOT and when I'm not. I look for his analysis on the help forum (hint JJ amigo!!) so I (we) could gain from his insight.

wisconsin tim 14:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 14:47 GMT September 3, 2004
thanks ... yeah, no need to do anything till tuesday

paris jb 14:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:42 GMT

one minute before number i liquidated $/jpy short and left gbp/$ short without stop,

broker sent me filled at 8:44 at exact price 8:29 price 10914,

but meantime he liquidated my gbp/$ on erronous margin call since he didnt count money available due to closed $/jpy position !!!

till now no answerr from my clown ......

Goes (NL) B747 14:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:27 GMT September 3, 2004

they rip you when it comes to CLOSING positions and most important, never trade options through them - NEVER !!!

gt

Livingston nh 14:48 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
rate hike in Canada next week is unlikely - Dodge has stated that the Canadian exapansion is tied to health of US economy which is now running behind Canada - the inflation figures in Canada are not threatening - Dodge may not be as confident as G'span that the soft patch is behind us (plus I'm sure he remembers the last time he hiked rates)

Dublin Flip 14:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
tim Probably worth reminding oneself with the holiday monday it could be pretty thin monday in Asia.

SanFrancisco tg 14:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - and maybe the market used the liquidity(longs) at the optimum time too.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Austin rb 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004//
I use a "hedge" property on my platform to put opposing bets thinking (not KNOWING) that one will come through. Trick is to set the stops and limits "right" and that part is shear luck. The platform seems to honor stops and limits as in tense times you CAN NOT put in an order and expect it to execute. At worst I just get double stopped out if it whips much but as of yet it hasn't happened but once. I never tried a straddle.

wisconsin tim 14:45 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
thinking of buying EUR around .2040-.2050 if seen, stops below .2000 any thoughts

paris jb 14:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Austin rb 14:30 GMT

hi mate, usualy broker i used did this but recently he changed his policy, and may be worse than that he is probaly joining other brokers wich they take volatility as excuse to stole our money

Pecs Andras 14:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP
There will be a hike in NDZ sooner, maybe also AUD and there interest rates are much higher anyway. I still dont understand

nyc jk 14:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jb - how far in advance of the numbers did you place the order? did you actually see it show up as an executed deal and reflected properly in your position before the numbers?

hk ab 14:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Andras// Next week bank of Canada meeting.

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
The reason USD/CAD is going short is that there will PROBABLY be a rate increase on the CAD SOON and so the bias on USD/CAD is short EVEN in the face of some of this USD buying.

paris jb 14:39 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
i spent 1 hours and haf with my broker no resolution yet,

some brokers r using volatility after numbers to stole our money

unbeileivable

to be continued......

Pecs Andras 14:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry: I meant, why is CAD...

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Wisconsin Tim// Tks for your input. Personally I (like most John Q. Public) didn't realize there were still that many big but archaic systems still out there in 1999. Tks 4 the facts. Hope you made some good rescues and $$ too.

Pecs Andras 14:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Wha is CAd the only currency going against the overall dollar bullish sentiment today? All other ccys are near or at their lows why CAD is flirting with its high.

paris jb 14:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

FloridA vv 14:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi there
Very sad that things turned out that nasty at Beslan school.
Lack of appropriate training, panic and ruthlesness - those are the reasons. Think from now on western media would avoil calling chechen terrorists - "rebells".

Omil Frances is loosing her eye allready. Hope hot weather and high presure which we have now would turn her in a storm
Anyways I'm not going to save my b..tt trying to escape from my house.
We have plenty of everything now just 30 miles from Orlando you can get as much gas as u want, and at a regular price.
Some news correspondents though like tragedies and horor
Thats what we see somtime on TV
As for trading still long Usd/Jpy, Short in Eur/Usd And couple of min ago picked up a bottom (as I hope) of Usd/Cad, but fallin Eur/Cad drags it down, thik 1.2940 will hold.

GT

Goes (NL) B747 14:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
when EUR/USD goes below 1.2050 it will make USD/JPY very atraactive for a short (3-5 intraday sessions).

@ 1.2050 JPY will finalize is duty regarding EUR/USD and will gain some for himself (herself is also OK).

if seen, than USD/JPY top will set @ 109.90-110.20 for the comiung 2-3 months.

gt

Austin rb 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
meant to type buy limit

paris jb 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

Austin rb 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have any success placing a straddle order before news announcement lets say a but limit 20 above and below current price. thanks

SanFrancisco tg 14:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, it would have been irresponsible for business and govt to not address the potential problems that were possible regarding y2k. Regarding not taking action against terror, that would not have helped stop the nazis either, and there would have been millions upon millions more dead by such a blind and shallow lack of action. We must stop it now, and anyone blaming my country instead of the terrorists is totally amazing stupidity. Tell it to the parents of the dead children today.

May I ask we stick to foreign exchange?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:58 GMT September 3, 2004
Again as I said before this was not meant to offend and I hope I have not offended anyone by my feeble attempt to bring to light that we have more important things we forget about when we are busy looking for the all mighty currency. We tend to ignore precious things simply because we have them but we are tragically reminded of them when they parish in the dust.

I appreciate your gesture GEP I might have to move in with you soon LOL. I really appreciate everyone’s concerns and I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend (hopefully) I will see you on the other side. GL GT

Sofia Milen 14:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
1.7762

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
This is a trading question: Has anyone had any bad experiences with the "what you click is what you get" "no downloading" outfit in Switzerland? It seems this outfit does give you exactly what you click due to a web based arrangement where they HAVE to. Any feedback + or - without giving names please on this unique trading platform (advertised sometimes here)?

lahore rugal 14:26 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me the high for jyu in electronic market is 9143 around 20 mins before, because i am seeing the high of 9133
somebody plz help me

thanks

wisconsin tim 14:26 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
don't want to argue this but please ...

99.72% of all computers had NO additional work done on them and they ALL came thru just fine, so Y2K was B.S. CIA hype.

true 90% (whatever percent of personal computers vs top business computer) had no additional work. It was the cobol and other "ancient" code bases that ran some of the worlds biggest systems that could of had problems. Would these failures have caused us going into the dark ages??, probably not but there probably would of been a mess that could of taken years and more money to clean up.

Personally, I had just graduated from college in MIS and took cobol my last semester just to land a good paying job to help fix this mistake. I was putting in ~70-80 hrs/wk for almost a year and a half fixing crap. Please, don't try and tell me Y2K was a CIA propogated farce

NY Raider19 14:25 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD //// If anyone can confirm the low it would be most helpful. thx

QC Swap 14:24 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
paris jb 14:21 GMT

Out of curiousity. Who are you with?

paris jb 14:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi traders

i spent 1 hour and half with my broker, no resolution yet...

some brokers r using volatility due to numbers as excuse to

stole our money, unbeileivable what hapened to me,

i liquidated some position before numbers and left others to have enough room for knee jerk,

and the market went my way gbp/$ DROPED MORE THAN 150 PIP, but my broker liquidated it on margin call!!!


when i checked out i found that he executed position i closed before numbers only after data is out!!!!!!


to be continued...

Dallas GEP 14:16 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Orlando International Airport will close today at NOON FWIW. In bound routes in many cases are closed to allow for more outbound traffic.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco TG// I drink it black most times. As far as trying for more pips now, raiding crumbs is risky amigo. What I was hyping was hype itself, not discounting terrorism. The public is moved/manipulated by hype (i.e. forex!). It's a long story but we are ALL the victims of terrorism, and terrorism's hype, not to be confused with funny fizzles and frauds like Y2K. 99.72% of all computers had NO additional work done on them and they ALL came thru just fine, so Y2K was B.S. CIA hype. But only sick-o's take schools hostage & yes, we need to zap that mentality worldwide but at what expense, how many more innocent soldiers' lives..surgical or not the USA needs to chill and not go to more war. Humanity has always been like this, even more so in the past. Viking fleets regularly raided/pillaged the coasts of England and France (and got their women). To eliminate terrorism and anarchists would be to eliminate humanity, ya ain't gonna do it. Not that the ecology of the planet would complain.

Rio 14:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Oscar... there is change in the legislation going on to solve this little problem!

nyc jk 14:11 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gvm - yeah clearly a mistake on your part as it's very obvious Arnie doesn't need any security, didn't you see him in Terminator?

GA TJ 14:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:46 GMT September 3, 2004
What you failed to take into account is the psych impact of terror. I don't know how to measure it but it is there. One of the most visible examples is the US Airlines after 9-11. Load factor dropped considerably. Consider the small business vendor to airlines that is hesitant to expand due to lack of confidence or has gone out of bussiness. Or the multinational that is unwilling to risk money on expansion in the middle east. Businesses will shy away from political unrest (terrorism). It is the nature of the beast. The greatest negative impact on the world economy is not the EUR craddle to grave social security or the US competiveness or Chinas fixed currency or anything else other then the unrest and psych fear caused by terror.

The chances of someone being a direct victim of terror is incredibly small and the chances of someone being an indirect victim is much greater - losing a job, certain freedoms - that list goes on and on. It will have an impact on currency trading depending on what currency/country is under attack.

oskar oslo 14:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 14:06

One problem - Arnold can not run for President, only native born can do so.

Sydney gvm 14:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Jk - my mistake - I thought you had the all the security in town coz "Arnie" was there - looks like he might beat Hillary in the next election - being the terminator that he is

Sell dollars anyway

Dallas GEP 14:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I hope you and your family are well along with VV's and Boca Raton's. News repoorts are saying people are running out of gas during thr evacuation phase now and are leaving their cars on the side of the roads. If there is something I can do for you, just let me know how I can help.

jkt-aye 14:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
sorry, typo...62.8

jkt-aye 14:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
62.08

eur lg 14:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EBS stands for Electronic Brokering System. Its amongst the industry standards used by most banks dealing in FX.

Global-View GVI 14:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GVI 14:01 GMT September 3, 2004
ISM Services PMI 58.2 vs. 64.8 in July
Employment rose to 52.5 vs. 50.0 in July
Prices paid 70.0 vs. 73.1 in July

bombay a 14:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
what were ism nos

Dallas MD 13:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Be aware that NYC traders are leaving early today for the Labor Day Holiday.

malay bhd 13:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
what does EBS mean

Lisbon eueu 13:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
when the coming US economic data come?I was told there will be another data realse today?

melbourne farmacia 13:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL - stay safe mate..GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL// my heart goes out to you Floridians..my son lives in Bradenton...on the water too. Ouch. Hip waders. GEP's hip to gulf storms and is right tho..I always have 20 gal. gasoline in two 10 gal jugs here in bananaland (Valdez' gas station). Typical public world wide..."dah, let's do it tomorrow Martha and wait 'n see". The early bird gets the worm.

Watch for violent weather in the future...climatic changes worldwide suggest a series of anomolies which unfortunately erupt in violent weather, super hot-cold spells. The brunt of it will be in the Atlantic coastal areas north of the equator as well as tornado and wind storms inland. Ecuador's in a drought! Build a pipe south, we'll take your excess.

Sydney gvm 13:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - I never said terrorists aint real. They are as real in my life and yours and millions of voters globally as the EUR-USD hitting 85 before the NY close - ultimately they should not and do not impact on currencies - and neither should/would/could Bush's speech nor some lame NFP figure

NY Raider19 13:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD //// Realize this was prob posted several times. May I confirm the spike low post-NFP on GBPUSD from EBS or other, etc. please, thx

nyc jk 13:54 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gvm - no dispute that the odds of any given individual being harmed by a terrorist attack are pretty small in general. but to say they don't threaten are way of life is a joke. look at the Russian schoolkids and their parents right now? you don't think their way of life is threatened? come to NY right now and see the massive security presence all over town, you don't think that might have anything to do with protection against terrorists do ya?? while the number of incidents might be small on a relative basis you can't say the threats aren't 100% real. happen to read anything about night club bombings in Bali, embassy bombings, train bombings, plane hijackings down there???


bombay a 13:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
thanks dallas md

Sydney M 13:52 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Millennium Computer Bug, did not cause too many problems because programmers and companies spend many months/year fixing most of their software before hand. At one stage we had 20 of the 45 programmers working on y2k bugs six months before hand. Mainly so we would not get sued.

SanFrancisco tg 13:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
My sincerest condolences regardless to those in Russia where the children are being killed by terrorists in the school. You wont find me complaining if you decide to take serious action to end this element. I wouldn't mind if the US went in to help alongside Russia, we can be more surgical and thus spare vastly more lives as Russia is still limited to wiping everything out. Valdez, I don't know what you put in your coffee today but this element is real and it needs to be stopped.

Though very saddened by this, I am trying to focus and took a few pips long near the big figure, and am looking to short later into 1.7850.

Dallas MD 13:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
10:00 AM NY Aug Services ISM

bombay a 13:41 GMT September 3, 2004
any more us data due????????????

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Terrorists are real if not ask the mothers and fathers of all their kids killed and injured by terrorist today in Russia. Forget the market hurricane Frances is going to probably cause some more deaths here in Florida too. Sometimes we forget the real important things in our lives. This is not meant to offend just thinking out loud as I wait out hurricane Frances. GL GT

wisconsin tim 13:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hmmm ... maybe the y2k bug wasn't a problem because of the $$ and effort to get systems compliant

Sydney gvm 13:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jk - there is a .0000000001% chance of some terrorist blowing up a car that I am standing next to. If you trade currencies then you should know probablities. We are talking the fat end of the tail re: standard deviations for the chances that the voting majority will ever have any contact with anything resembling a terrosist attack. Its all censored spin

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
The millenium bug! How well I remember. The CIA (like cows..out-standing in their field) website even proclaimed doom and gloom; the US tres had truckloads of bills already printed to dole out to the banks (fiat) in case there was a run on banks. And not ONE DARNED COMPUTER failed. I remember the consulate calling me long distance and asking if my computer was OK. It was and I chatted with an guy in Madrid about the hoax. Now figure...how many billion$ were $pent on protective "thi$ and that" to avoid the millenium bug? Sorta like anti terrorist gizmos, gadgets and "services" eh? Who gained from that? The sellers of security, gizmos and patches. It's all about hype and money, honey. Give a gov't an excuse and your tax revenues suddenly are diverted to stupid stuff, voted in by those highly informed unwashed who watch the Simpsons.

Bucharest Razvan 13:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
stopped for -50. such is life :)

bombay a 13:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
any more us data due????????????

nyc jk 13:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 13:32 GMT September 3, 2004
.....
- Govts who scare us into thinking "terrorists" can really threaten our way of life.....

Terrorists can't threaten our way of life? Mate are you sure you are in Sydney and not in the outback somewhere cut off from the rest of civilization?

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
They basically have run out of gas in the Orlando Area the news reports. Now wouldn't you fill the tank a couple of days BEFORE the storm rolls in????

Anyway, one strategy at this time would be to SELL the dollar at or NEAR the respective highs or lows on the pairs and run 20 pips stops. This COULD work but use smaller than normal lot sizes.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 13:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Gonna Start Longing Monday-Tues
1.76 for cable and
1.1850 for euro
960 Points Today...(Nice!)

Sydney gvm 13:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
120.75 Buy Euro...why coz the range aint broken by such a dull figure. We are sure to see 122 next week coz thats what the govts want ( yes the same bunch of idiots and beaurocrats elected by morons who watch reality TV all day)
- Govts who scare us into thinking "terrorists" can really threaten our way of life. (so called terrorists have been with us for decades if not centuries) No one seems to remember the false scare called Millineum Computer Bug. The sad bunch of people who we allow to set rules for our life (called Govts) are using the "terrorist threat" to scare us all into maintaining the status quo... they stay in power - we stay scared - its all a very seriously manipulated joke

wisconsin tim 13:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
well gonna take everything and run

got burned for 25 pips slippage as well on 2 sells but at least it wasn't in the wrong direction. Have a safe and merry labour day all.

Budapest Daniel 13:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
okay i'm totally broke now. back to programming, the programming side of the fx market works much more better for me. :-/

SanFrancisco tg 13:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP 1.7790 is going to be hard to crack very near term I think, so odds building I pick up Sterling a little later as the figure resolves.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Well, I guess that's that for a while...happy trades all, outahere.

Goes (NL) B747 13:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 13:13 GMT September 3, 2004

since last night, as the following:
long USD/JPY: 62pips (build during 90mins before data)
short EUR/USD: 47pips
short GBP/JPY: 102pips
but, with low stakes/volume.
autopilot did the closing work.

gt

KL KL 13:20 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Syd, can you see bid for eurusd and gbpusd as well?? and what levels are they forming..tia

mark warsaw 13:16 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
tks ldn and dallas. appreciated.

Syd 13:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: bids Forming Between 0.6900/10

Sydney Alimin 13:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
B747: did you manage to get something out of the market?
my weekend starts early mate, have a nice w/e

Eilat Dolphin 13:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Frances waves are starting to hold the Euro.

Dallas GEP 13:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
You can see on the EBS rate mine was OFF MARKET

Sydney Alimin 13:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
closed gbp 1.7821, got to go now

Dallas GEP 13:11 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I have 1.2070 BID 1.2073 ASK on LOWS

Global-View 13:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:

Ldn Cashman 12:57 GMT September 3, 2004
1.2065 EBS low

Cairo MDR 13:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Had a euro short 2 days ago, and i forgot about it, so i think i will let it run to 2000-1980.
GL and GT

mark warsaw 13:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi all, what was the lowest offer pls in eurusd ??, tks frds

Dallas GEP 13:07 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GVM, I don't control perceptions....market says buy USD right now whether or not we think the number is good or not...

Roumeli anka 13:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
well... Quindex level at 12067 touched again. I suppose 12146 is a sell if seen

Dallas GEP 13:05 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sell level on Euro now IMO is 1.2130/35, GBP sell level 1.7845, USD/CHF buy level 1.2625 NO MORE THAN 30 PIP STOPS!!!!

hk ab 13:05 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
747// I took eur/jpy shorts instead, got burnt many time few years ago on gbp/jpy, no good memories on them.

eur/jpy was short starting from 133.33 and 5 pips up till 133.58.

Now only the dlr/cad bothers. I wonder how could this little bird get strangled with a huge number contracts on itself.

Sydney gvm 13:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas

Why is 144k a buy ? I 100% disagree - but then again - there's a convention on so what the censored do I know

romania ib 13:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bahrain:interesting.could describe shortly how does it work?thanx.

Gold Coast martin 13:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
..The kiwi especially will shed more feaqthers than any other commodity currency as posted 4 weeks ago....next stop 6394...g/t

Goes (NL) B747 13:02 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 12:55 GMT September 3, 2004

you are welcome; Jay got my email address so it is available for you!

btw, did you take the GBP/JPY shorts @ 11-12/AUG/2004?


gt

NYC 13:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, what about this?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 19:08 GMT September 1, 2004
Might see cable at 1.8110 for
thursday high

Cut us some slack

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 13:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Rom;
One I made myself in Excel.

Dallas GEP 13:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OK guys BUY usd on rallies against it

Sydney Alimin 13:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
it is certainly TRIED, TESTED but NOT TRUSTED!

GER ad 12:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 12:54,
Maybe they know where this day will go...

Ldn Cashman 12:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EBS low EUR/USD 1.2065. Forget what the platforms say.

LA fxnew 12:57 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bahrain:
you were right about cable.

But will ur broker honor stop/limit during data?

Bris TW 12:57 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Between 3 brokers I have 1.2069 , 1.2095 and 1.2075.

romania ib 12:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bahrain-what system u use?

Budapest Daniel 12:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
what do ya think guys, will the eur/usd go back where it was before the event?

Brisbane L 12:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW I also have 1.2069

hk ab 12:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
747// Just want to exchange some other ideas. :D

Bris TW 12:54 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg terminal shows euro low 1.2060. why are the brokers all wrong??

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 12:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
NYC..Remmber my post Monday I think
GBP 1.7750 somewhere?

Goes (NL) B747 12:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 12:44 GMT September 3, 2004

(1) may I ask why?
(2) did I wrong to you :-)

gt

NYC PCM 12:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Well I was right with the cyclical analysis. Now it's down all the way into 3rd week of month.

Short on re-test of PDL.

Pecs Andras 12:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Despite all previous warnings I did manage to get into an NDZ short quite easily tight after the announcement

mex sjs 12:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
am there already....

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi sjs, por favor send me an email of why you expect eur/usd chart to nose dive or better still post it in help forum. You must think the big uptrend is finished. Sorry been out of touch..busy here. Yahoo chat?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 12:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
what was shock...wow
My system bought gbp/chf while I was a sleep...made 120 points with about 10 minutes

hk ab 12:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
747// would you mind sending your email to me thru Jay? Million thanks.

Toronto WR 12:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Cable low 1.7790 correct?

KL KL 12:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Any body caught some short eurusd?? mine did not trigger??

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
True story Goes. Read my last quip on help forum. But 5.4% can be taken two ways..one is the banks are scrambling for customers who can't pay more, tightening profit margins, the other is boom in the housing mkt. Frankly I can't figure out which to take stock in. Maybe one will cancel the other.

Togliatti Ant 12:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs, agree with you

nyc sa 12:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
any sense of direction in trading gbp/jpy ? levels please ? thnx .

hk ab 12:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gold is telling the truth?

gecko//maybe the gold will disappoint you again not to close above 405 in weekly chart.

Goes (NL) B747 12:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
fell=down

gt

mex sjs 12:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
eurusd en route to visit year`s low....next weeks....and even lower...good trades

Goes (NL) B747 12:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
with the revised # it is very USD positive and especially when % rate fell to 5.4%

gt

Budapest Daniel 12:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
good, i'm broke....

Goes (NL) B747 12:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
OK...goods USD longs will pay good until tonight's US session.

gt

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
nothing like a 100 pip ride. I think I'm getting this stop/limit thing down..just racked in 79 pips net.

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Limited out eur/gbp. Can't get NEW position in

hk ab 12:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
But WHAT could initiate that????

a big fall in dlr/jpy?

look the elastic rubber band on gbp.

Time for gbp bottoming out.

hk ab 12:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Ithink there will be a 2nd shot.

GVI john 12:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Small upward revisions to July and June . No Charley impact

hk ab 12:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jk//cheers

Kaunas 12:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
144

GENEVA FHR 12:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
NFP 144000

GVI john 12:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
jobs +144

Gen dk 12:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SanFrancisco tg 12:28 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Great Flip. Maybe we can revisit this or something else later, it is 5am here and I am still working on the first cup of coffee with one eye open and 4hrs rest as I think you can tell by my typing.

Dublin Flip 12:25 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
tg that was my point. That 4% was an unrealistic starting point. Clinton average over the longest expansion and the dotcome bubble crescendo ending @ 4% is 5.2%.
I think 6/8% is condition normal over the past 50years. anyway enough history

Livingston nh 12:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Geneva - Because of the low numbers the seasonal adjustment is very high plus the plug factor used for new businesses will magnify the effect of any job growth

SanFrancisco tg 12:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Not at all Flip, I just want to be sure we are clear that 4% is bogus. My experience is that those who don't get it bring it up, and those who do not even care to mention it. So I see the 4% a bs, not saying your statement is.

Geneva DC 12:17 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
previous August NFP numbers
1994 303
1995 278
1996 203
1997 -7
1998 355
1999 193
2000 -28
2001 -141
2002 11
2003 -25

prague mark 12:17 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
is data in 13 min?

Dublin Flip 12:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
amazing tg.
Even when someone agrees with you, you lose the rag.

hk ab 12:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// Do you see my 0.666666 now?

hkg panda 12:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
nt - where do you see the end of this AUD downside bias? GT

SanFrancisco tg 12:12 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes I was waiting for that Dublin, surprised it took you this long this time. That 4% was a very temporary phenomenon, and the result of a dot com boom that became a dot com bust. You had a flood of businesses riding on no business plan, large investment secured on napkins, no real tangible service/management/product for 50% of the employers, with the politicicians/salesmen of the time pumping it all the way as if they had some legitimate role in it the new technology. All it took was a pin for the hot air to escape. You should probably save the bs for another day when someone with the truth and reality isnt lurking about :)

Geneva DC 12:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
For NFP optimists:
Seasonal Consideration
August is has statistiscally the lowest NFP number (as measured over the last 10 years)

hong kong nt 12:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
AB -- No big problem on AUD, just a relocation of proportion between commodity ccy players on aud election issue plus cad inflation data, after present downside bias, we may see good level to MT buy...

KL KL 12:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Seems like EUR like a Rock now....maybe can crumble with worst % when jobs data released....I am suprise it staying unmoved power at the moment

Dublin Flip 11:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Boston. I didn't catch the train of conversation.
cheers and be lucky

Dublin Flip 11:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
tg As I've said before, Unemployment was at 4% when Junior took office. It was economically and statistically unsustainable. The dotcom bubble created jobs for anyone who could plug in a printer. I'm not disputing Bush grabbed the keys as a recession was being delivered. It's all part of the economic cycle that he got on the wrong side of whereas Bill managed to fortutitously avoid.

Goes (NL) B747 11:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Russia & USA are running hand in hand against terrorism; very bulish for USD against European CCYS and we will feel that with weeks (not months!).

gt

Sydney gvm 11:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
40 minutes. Place your bets Gentlemen & Ladies.

Best of British

May the best man win

This is afterall the classic punt; technicals and fundamentals out the window.

It has become the once a month on a Friday global Big Tent Circus

Step right up....!!!

hk 11:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hard working diver shorting dlr/cad without noticing the number of contracts, similar to eur @1.29

BOSTON mpd004 11:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
DUBLIN/flip...I watched the convention all week including last night, so many things were said. But can I recall whether he acually said more jobs? No, I was just speaking on what an earlier post had said. That's why I said 'if' he said that.

SanFrancisco tg 11:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Since the jobs abyss created by the recession which began before he took office, compounded by 911, of course jobs have been created, plenty. Net average unemployment rate of 5.5% is the same of the 1990's, compared to 10% in France and 9.9% in Germany.

LA fxnew 11:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I hope market will give a suprise and hit 1.82xx in gbp!

Dublin Flip 11:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
mpd004. Did junior say he's created jobs or will create jobs (in his second term)???
I'm not slagging. This is a ligitimate question. Did you see him or read his speech??? I had a quick browse earlier and didn't catch any reference but maybe I missed it.
TIA

Goes (NL) B747 11:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Perth pm 11:40 GMT September 3, 2004

looks very bad, most of Chechen leaders are located in Western European countries with permission of the 'hosts'.

gt

Sydney Alimin 11:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
in my opinion, 'create jobs' is very vague, it can range from 2 to anything bigger than 2, what's important is the market expectation to the numbers and whether it is fulfilled or even better

Geneva DC 11:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
No reason not to be in position through the NFP number.

If you can risk 50 points in a normal market with full position
then take a 25% position size for a potential 200 point swing after the number (for the same dollar gain or loss)
or a 15% position of your ususal risk is 35 points etc.

Why should we abandon a long term mkt view for a few hours oscillations?
If you HAVE a view, that is :-)

Perth pm 11:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Just seen on TV terrorist hostage over after short battle, no other detail.

kitay tim 11:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
test

Gen dk 11:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BOSTON mpd004 11:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Just my opinion, but, President Bush knows that this is a very critical stage of the election and I would think that he would evade saying anything that the 'other guy' could turn around and use against him especially the very day after he said it and the numbers come out. He also knows that it was the economy that croaked the old man into not getting a second term. I think if he said that they created jobs, then he means it. FWIW

GVI john 11:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
For regular access to this report contact: [email protected]

STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels
eur/$ 1.2180… $/yen 109.25
DJIA -33 pts… 10-yr 4.18% -3 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE
The focus of trade all week has been on the release of the August U.S. employment report on the open today. Street estimates center around an increase in jobs on the order of +150,000. After having been burned several times this year on hopes for an above consensus outcome, it may be that the market is now low-balling this figure. Misses in the consensus payrolls forecast have been worth large moves in the dollar in both directions, so the stakes on the data are very high for spot traders and have resulted in illiquidity and extreme volatility on the release. This situation could be exacerbated by the short session in the U.S. ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. We note that the terrorist hostage situation at a school in Southern Russia is ongoing and that Hurricane Frances continues to close in on Florida and will likely make landfall this weekend. In overseas trade, Asian bourses fell on the Intel earnings guidance and European indices are narrowly mixed as they await the data from the U.S. JGB prices fell while bunds and gilts are a touch weaker. The early call on U.S, equities is for a weaker open and treasury prices are higher. Oil is currently higher from its NY close and well above the $44 level. The dollar is holding mostly steady.

In Europe, the Eurozone August services PMI fell to 54.5 vs. 55.3 in July. The 50 line marks the break between expansion and contraction. The German subcomponent was 53.5 in August after 53.9. France saw a larger decline to 54.0 from 55.1. The high cost of oil and an ongoing unemployment rate of around 9% remain heavy drags on the European economy. July Eurozone retail sales improved by +0.4%, they were +1.1% yr/yr. June data were revised up to +2.1% mo/mo, and +1.1% yr/yr. In the U.K., the August services PMI improved to 56.9 from 56.2. On the other hand, the Halifax index of home prices saw a decline on -0.6% in July. This is the first decline since August 2002. Year on Year prices were still +21.3%. Recent housing data suggest that the five recent Bank of England rate hikes are starting to take hold, and some are already indicating that the central bank might have been too aggressive in its efforts to slow the economy. No change in policy is expected from the BOE policy meeting next week.

The price on the benchmark 10-yr JGB gave up some ground Friday to end the week at a yield of 1.55%, +6bp from its close on Thursday. A key focus in Tokyo trading was the U.S. employment report. Hopes that the economic soft patch in Japan will not last long are based on the outlook for demand for exports from the two major global growth engines, the U.S and China. On this score, the Intel mid-earnings period warning was a blow to the heavily tech-weighted Nikkei index which eased 130 points to close at 11,022. A key focus Thursday was comments by Bank of Japan Governor Fukui, who clearly would like to move away from the emergency zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as early as possible to an ordinary rate driven policy. He indicated that he is watching oil and that the economy was not as weak as the 2Q04 GDP had suggested. The Bank of Japan monetary policy committee meets next Wednesday and Thursday and will undoubtedly keep key interest rates steady for now. The 2Q04 GDP revisions will be released one week from today.

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 11:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I thing today BOJ on the orange status, caused by strong of Yen.thinking about 108.03

GER ad 11:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF,
closed 1/2 at 1.5348 and moved S/L for the rest at cost.

Goes (NL) B747 11:24 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD & USD/JPY calls based on NFP @ +++240K
normally, it is better to enter trading 20-25mins after NFP data as chances for wrong call are there in higher than normal odds.

gt

Indonesia Solo Raden Mas 11:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hello everybody !!

Goes (NL) B747 11:18 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
imo, dollar will go below 1.2050 and over 110.50 today.
against the EUR it will be strong $ bull trend setting and against JPY it will be support to the move against EUR.

USD/JPY will go towards 105-106.50 (next 3-4 weeks) after printiong 110.80-111.20 ///

gt

Sydney gvm 11:17 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
immaturity/fragility of the current fx market shown by focus on a presidents words - I have never seen this focus taken seriously before in my 20 years of trading

Dallas MD 11:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Vote Quimby!

Sydney gvm 11:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ah fogot one last - stay short natural gas

Sydney gvm 11:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
sell dollar - buy oil - buy gold - wear diamonds

Dallas GEP 11:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
PAR, what makes you think he didn't look at them???

Gen dk 11:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london phil 11:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
194.65 june 24 base

Prague JV 10:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy .There is much more to come on downside .

PAR 10:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
President could look at job figures yesterday but did not do it . Why ? Is he not interested in the economy ?

Dallas MD 10:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Pres. Bush said early on in his speech that the Republicans "created jobs".

Dallas MD 10:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Traders!

GER ad 10:49 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/CHF at 1.5335, will buy again 1.5320 if seen S/L under 1.5280

NYC PCM 10:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Morning All

EUR/USD

Well here we are back around the 12170 # and winding tighter and tighter.

The cyclical picture still favors down to my mind, and the longer we don't break upwards the more likely that is. However in this tightly wound situation I'm becoming more reluctant to go into the number today anything or than flat. the risk of a massive spike is too great. I figure I can always enter a little later on the coming cyclical down move even if I miss the top!

So I'm going to get rid of my short and look to re-enter after news - either higher, or lower.

hk ab 10:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Very few of us notice the divergence on gold with eur.....

GER ad 10:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF (1.5339),
Because the situation in Russia (I hope with so few victims as possible) may to close higher today today (1.5375+).

Togliatti Ant 10:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
school under control of Russian troops

QC Swap 10:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed my USD/CHF short pos. overnight

Togliatti Ant 10:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Thank you HKG SK, most of hostages alive reuters says

New York City pws 10:20 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I cant be sure where speculators are positioning themselves going into the number at this point. In my opinion dollar long positions seem to be picking up...but when the tale hits the tape, all bets are off. I am personally looking for a stong NFP number today...targets for EURUSD at 1.1950 and 1.7750 on cable for the downside and 1.2250 and 1.81 if the number misses to the downside. Whisper numbers on the street seem to be upping their forcast...I do know however this morning JP morgan downgraded theirs to around 100K.

HKG SK 10:18 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
It has to be 50% long and 50% short or else no deal will be made.

Paris jan 10:09 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
New York City pws: do u know howq the mkt is now long usd or short I mean %long or short

HKG SK 10:07 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
We should say prayers to all those unfortunate people in Russia.

Gen dk 09:57 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bribane L 09:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3624024.stm

Battle erupts at Russian school
now on sky news

Kaunas DP 09:56 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:51 GMT
agree...then 1,2134 should attract some fresh air and who knows maybe they will be lucky ones..:)

Dallas GEP 09:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Guys, I think it is quite possible eur/usd could go back down to it's daily low TODAY PRIOR to NFP. Some of longs I THINK will square out.

New York City pws 09:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Some ideas for those of you looking to take a postion into the NFP number...especially for those of you like myself who trade with censored and know of their recent issues with stops, limits and execution grarentees...best of luck to all on the trade.

1. Depending on your opinion on the number, look to sell spikes or buy pullbacks up 45 min into the release and place a stop 5 min before the number comes out. If last month is any indicator, give yourself 40 pip stops so that a quick spike will not stop you out. If you are right you will do very well. The key is that you will be up in the position into the number, so look for a 30 pip move in one direction prior to the report then go the opposite direction, depending on your opinion on the report.



2. Look to sell a spike, buy the quick pullback before the number and place a stop on that position. Then go the opposite direction with another pair 10 minutes before the number and place a stop in that position with a 40 pip stop. In the best case scenario you will lose 20 pips on 1 position and make 150 on the other, not a bad risk reward. The only risk you take is that it is an in line number and the market gaps up then down and you lose on both.



3. Try to trade the number after the report comes out. This will be the most difficult trade to make as censored will have all their accounts on manual execution. One way to try to get around this is to place a 40 or more ‘market points” order to the trade. This SHOULD get you the first gap up/down print, but there are no guarantees. If it is an inline number we would recommend not doing this trade as you may pay up only to see the trade come the other way HARD.

Budapest Daniel 09:42 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
If it is the correct word in English for this then yes.. :)

GENEVA FHR 09:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Budapest better put a stop in euro/yen as you will have a euro/yen position

Ldn pm 09:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel - In my opinion make a donation to your brokers favourite charity instead !

Sydney Alimin 09:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 09:35 GMT September 3, 2004

in other words you are hedging your usd positions?

Budapest Daniel 09:35 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
what do you guys think about the next strategy before the NFP data(don't laugh if it is ridiculous cos' I'm new to the fx market):

I'll go short for eur/usd @ market and put a stop -30 pips from the market level.
and
I'll go short for usd/jpy with the same strategy...

UK ELC 09:34 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP Thanks.......Hope you get some sleep before the action!!!

Sofia Milen 09:25 GMT September 3, 2004
ELC/Site name pls.TIA
http://www.igindex.co.uk or "spread betting" in Google

My mistake, a STOP LOSS is gauranteed but a FILL is not, ie subject to slippage.

sar jf 09:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
if you get large enuff move out of broker platforms and into bank ones where you have more freedom of movement and less control of the house

Sofia Milen 09:25 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ELC/Site name pls.TIA.

Geneva DC 09:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin 09:08 GMT September 3, 2004
there is another possiblity of price movement after data where there could be a gap but then the subsequent price action is to FILL the gap immediately, in other words immediate stop loss is important too even if one decides to straddle...think about it


No such luck on Friday August 6, where eur$ gapped from 1.2055 to 1.2185 (and eventually moved on to a high of 1.2390 on August 17). The gap was never filled until Aug 24.

Dallas GEP 09:17 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ELC, It is my opinion that straddle trades rarely work but as an example on EUR/USD you COULD try a short order @ 1.2130 with stop @ 1,2170 and also a LONG order at 1.2240 with stop at 1.2200. This of course assumes we have a big number either way.

Sydney Alimin 09:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
personally i think it is quite possible too that there won't be any fireworks after NFP since everyone is already talking loud about it,whipsawing several pips both ends and that's it...end of the week

UK ELC 09:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP
In the UK we have spread betting platforms such as IG Index these people ABSOLUTLY GAURANTEE a fill at your price regardless of market conditions, what in your opinion is the best way to play given this gaurantee.

Sydney Alimin 09:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
there is another possiblity of price movement after data where there could be a gap but then the subsequent price action is to FILL the gap immediately, in other words immediate stop loss is important too even if one decides to straddle...think about it

TelAviv DOR 09:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
YINZI 8:30 , which is the suggested buy /sell point & which is the s/l ? your numbers lack one of this 2 ( ??).

Antwerp Tom 09:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, thanks for the useful info. Appreciate it. GL to all with NFP, in a contrarian thought there might be no significant move since everybody expects a fx hurricane...but very unlikely imo

Dallas GEP 08:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
DP.....I have had MANY conversations with some trade desk guys and this seems to be the consensus.....

For example let's say just prior to release Euro is trading here around 1.2170 and you put an order in the SELL at 1.2130 thinking the number will be GOOD and that Euro will short. OK so assume the number is US positive and there is an 100 PIP almost immediate drop on EURO. WHERE will you get filled at??? Well the response I get is that you will get filled on a limit at FIRST available price so if that is 1.2070, THEN you will get filled THERE (this assumes market gaps like last time). SO it is MORE likely that you will be SLIPPED on a LIMIT than on a STOP because MOST trading desks are more senstive to those BUT in this SAME example let's say you were ALREADY long from 1.2170 on Euro and you STOP was at 1.2130. The chances of you being stopped out at 1.2130 on your long are NOT likely if market truly gaps a hundred pips SHORT. Usually the trade desk will work the STOPS first before the limits so you may be slipped LESS on your STOP than you would be on your limit order to sell eur/usd if you had one. It also depends on the SIZE of the order. A larger order is MORE likely to be slipped than a smaller one. Lately some trading platforms have stated specifically that they can NOT guarantee stops and limits under ABNORMAL market conditions such as the last NFP release

slv sam 08:55 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
it is interesting Friday and Monday! are we going to see euro/$ breaking 1.2450? I am aside!! for gamblers...I advice them to try their luck in casino instead of this market!!GT

Kaunas DP 08:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what do u think about limit orders execution in order to get position after data considering all these new excuses from platform providers

Dallas GEP 08:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Remember as we approach NFP in 4 hours, and non-USD based pairs will be MUCH safer if you are in market or plan to be before NFP.

Gen dk 08:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Jiangmen yinzi 08:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Here are forecasted highs and lows together with suggested buy and sell points for Aug September 3rd, 2004.
Listed after the currency pair is the forecasted low/high for the day, the suggested buy/sell points, the suggested stop and the forecasted low/high for the week.

1 EUR/USD 1.2070 1.2250 Buy 1.2070 1.1990/ 1.2280
2 GBP/USD 1.7800 1.8052 Buy 1.7820 1.7800/ 1.8100
3 AUD/USD 0.6960 0.7050 sell 0.7040 0.6900/ 0.7150
4 USD/CHF 1.2550 1.2700 buy 1.2700 1.2550/ 1.2900
5 USD/CAD 1.2930 1.3080 buy 1.3080 1.2930/1.3250
6 USD/JPY 108.80 110.20 buy 110.20 108.30/ 110.50

These forecasts are for reference only.
Please keep in mind that you and you alone are responsible for your own trades and for the maintenance of stop loss entries at levels you can afford. In order to help preserve trading capital, it is suggested that when prices move in your favour by 30 points, you change your stop to a breakeven position.
Good luck to everybody!!
Guangdong, China
Yinzi

Bribane L 08:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip and them too

Dublin Flip 08:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
What's the L??
The Australian Cricket Board are on the bid in the ozzie???

Lndn Ron 08:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
pls help me figure impact of NFP if below 150 say 100 $ positive, if up over 200 euro positive is this right ?

Budapest Daniel 08:15 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Viktor: To be honest I've always been a bad oracle, therefore I won't do anything until the data release.

Brisbane L 08:07 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone.
AUD supported above 6940 with rumours of ACB was bidding for the pair preventing further fall

prague viktor 08:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 07:31 GMT September 3, 2004:the range is from 95k to 180k for me I can see it on the lower side whats about u.

Dallas GEP 08:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
FXNEW...yes I do. Next level if broken would be 1.7820. FLAT now on all pairs EXCEPT eur/gbp

HKG SK 07:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Just square 1/2 of my short GBP position. Sitting on the other 1/2 tillNFP. Add some buy US/Chf at 1.2605. Hoping we will get a good figure tonight. Got enough pips on the GBP to cover a 50 pips SL for this CHF position.

Eilat Dolphin 07:48 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Mark/ There is something else we know for sure:
"The market will fluctuate!"

LA fxnew 07:41 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone can say for sure the direction for gbp/usd regardless data comes out or not?

TIA

Budapest Daniel 07:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Mark, are you sure about it? ;-)

prague mark 07:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 07:31 GMT
there is only one thing for sure - some will win and some will lose...

Budapest Daniel 07:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Good mourning guys and gals, what are your plans for today's NFP data release? Is there anyone that could predict the eur/usd movements after release? I mean is there anyone who is going to say, "OK, I'm sure the NFP data will be worse than expected therefore I'm going to long eur/usd" ?

SF LongView 07:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
houston ken 05:37 GMT September 3, 2004
bush is a man of honor........

LOL....Houston Ken, I like your sense of humor.....ROFLMAO

LA fxnew 07:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gep:
do you see 1.7850 is a strong support?

Dallas GEP 07:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Took some more eur/gbp shorts @ 6812 off an order that was waiting, Target is 6778

PAR 07:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Huge EURGBP option at 6835 being defended with all means, otherwise big problems.

hk ab 07:21 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
It looks like the operators want to bend the eur/gbp first.

ICT ML 07:06 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Someone hammering GBp in general right now...nothing else moving.

Tallinn viies 06:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
have been extremely busy with oil markets. volatilty is killing if to be honest :)
my euro spot trades from the end of august didnt work out as planned and hoped. too much loss but nevermind, even with loss august wasnt too bad.
although no positions on eurousd right now I still think euro is sell as long as 1,25 not traded. with target near 1,14-1,17 area in 4Q or 1Q 2005
we have seen NFP dissapointed 3 times in row. this time I hope they will show upside suprise. on the other hand Im not sure how adecvate the reaction to numbers will be if monday is holiday in America.
from tuesday normal liquidity should be start picking up again. next three months should show us a lot about further trends...
gl

Syd 05:54 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Russian hostage situation may be even worse than thought with released hostage, regional official saying militants holding at least 1,000 students, teachers, parents at school near Chechnya; initially number was around 350 but released teacher says there are around 1,500 being held. If this ends in Bloodshed what will Putin Do?

HKG SK 05:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Too many people have been waiting in the passed few days for US$ to drop looking for 1.23 Euro. When this happen, usually the market will go the other way trapping all $ bear.

houston ken 05:39 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
brown did you say u bought or sold euro?

houston ken 05:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bush is a man of honor he will not do that

Le Havre Alphonse Brown 05:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
bought euro at 1.2171

HKG SK 05:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Any one here who is a good friend of Pres. Bush? Please give him a call and ask him about the NFP, remember to tell us too.

HKG SK 05:26 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
There must be someone in this world that know the NFP figure now. If Pres. Bush saw the figure already there must be someone else that already know the figure. If they do they can make billion of $ within a day.

melbourne farmacia 05:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - Possible Gbp/usd targets: 1.7687/1.8253 on NFP outcome. GT

Surabaya Medallion 04:53 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I'm curious about people position here. USD bullish or bearish for tonight?

melbourne farmacia 04:51 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - Would need to see at what level Gbp & Euro were trading @ 8 am EST to determine straddle points. I'll let you know tonight.
Based on some platforms new non Guarantee fills / stops etc... the risk is 2 high.

KL KL 04:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, I mean for example just before NFP, and gbpusd is trading at 1.79...if figures were good on NFP and gbpusd drops like rocket where will you set your sell limit...and vice versa if NFP bad where will you set you limit buy. No one can catch the jump so one needs to set the limit buy and sell I think if you have open possie no differet to setting SL levels. Just want to know the level that will attract buyers and sellers.....tia.

melbourne farmacia 04:01 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - Not 100% on your Question...

OK SZ 03:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
St, have been away for sometime trying to get my feet back in..hope you have been doing good..have a good evening and will chat tomorrow..gl/gt

Gold Coast martin 03:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Thai central bank bought some aussie ..that accounted for aud spike to 6980...expect back to 6950 and if breached within 2 hours ...6894 before data.....g/t

KL KL 03:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, do you play the breakout by setting your SL. eg for gbpusd or eur usd where will you set your break out both ways up and down...tia

houston st 03:37 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   

OKIE -- haven't seen you in awhile...hope all is well...I'll shoot you an email tomorrow...any thoughts on this market?...good trades to you.

Bribane L 03:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD some p/taking in early Asia, US invst names were cited as prime bidders in the pair under 0.6960 lvl, Mkt already short AUD upon break of 0.70 figure yesterday with specs and non-players jumping on the gun. Ahead of US numbers, a need to exercise some point on caution, talk of bids below 0.6950. interesting

Brisbane L 03:22 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia many thks

melbourne farmacia 03:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane L 02:50 GMT September 3, 2004
If over 0.6997... good for 0.7010/15. GT

OK SZ 03:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ML, appreciate it

ICT ML 03:08 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Sure SZ. Anytime.

OK SZ 03:05 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ML, if your around can you send me an email? my computer got hit with a virus and i lost all..i need to ask you a question..thanks pal hope your well..go sooners:)

hk 02:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
The dollar headed for its biggest weekly loss
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for its biggest weekly loss in four versus the euro in Asia amid speculation a report today will show U.S. job creation fell short of some predictions for a third month.

Bribane L 02:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
On this Day

Brisbane L 02:50 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Mel Farmacia do you see Aud targeting 70 + now its broken r 6975 cheers.

Ldn 02:45 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg says [PRES BUSH] won"t see job data before speech scheduled from 2 GMT. Some in the chat room has suggested rumor that Bush has already seen the payrolls figures and they are good. Meanwhile, our offshore desks reported speculation that the Republicans could announce the capture of Bin Laden at today"S convention with unconfirmed reports doing the rounds that Pakistan officials captured the Al Qaeda chief up to 4 weeks. With little else to trade on, the market will pay attention to Bush speech.

melbourne farmacia 02:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 02:11 GMT September 3, 2004
As a dispensary of medicine to sick looking ccy, i'll buy your position on any spike reversal GT

ny dm 02:36 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
seems the word is that there may be a barrier option at .6930 being protected by asian name. when he put his bids in the market ran for cover .have to see what happens when london comes in

wisconsin tim 02:32 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
gah
web site

wisconsin tim 02:31 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow levels, added historical projections to the site
web site
Personally, gonna be flat into data, gt's all

Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/2/2004 AUDUSD 0.6986 0.6902 0.7059 0.6886
9/2/2004 EURGBP 0.6818 0.6771 0.6833 0.6768
9/2/2004 EURUSD 1.2211 1.2112 1.2241 1.2094
9/2/2004 EURYEN 133.62 132.45 133.91 132.22
9/2/2004 GBPUSD 1.7967 1.7814 1.8018 1.7786
9/2/2004 GBPYEN 196.65 194.72 196.96 194.20
9/2/2004 NDZUSD 0.6506 0.6418 0.6588 0.6404
9/2/2004 USDCAD 1.3048 1.2947 1.3125 1.2932
9/2/2004 USDCHF 1.2669 1.2553 1.2701 1.2529
9/2/2004 USDYEN 109.83 108.97 109.96 108.86

Calabash TarHeel 02:30 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko

Waiting for your 30 pip risk, 3 for 1 piker special to buy the aud. Might add, Morning to You. Evening here.
Take Care

wisconsin tim 02:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
too bad there wasn't an over/under spread on the word
"job(s)" for the speech

Ldn 02:16 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
NZD/USD: Surges Through 0.6500 ifr

Ldn 02:13 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
As Arnie says four more years four more years

HKG SK 02:11 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
I still feel that the GBP is ver sick and have added to my short which I did at 1.7960 yesterday. Just short at 1.7902 looking for 1.7780 by tonight.

van Gecko 02:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ny dm 01:47.. there you go..;) its TarHeel and his croonies from Calabash.. good job ML.. Kanagroo$ in the bank!

Pecs Andras 02:10 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Bush just starting to speak

Rio 02:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi

Here is the info I was looking for about NFP. I believe could be interested for all to see...


http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_054.html

nyc jk 02:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
good stuff ML, well looking good so far. gl with it.

Calabash TarHeel 02:04 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ny dm 01:47 GMT September 3, 2004
somebody is buying alot of kiwi with no regard for the price

Hope they like it all the way to .6550/55

gl,gt

ICT ML 02:03 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
JK I bot it earlier, not on this last little dip. Bot it when the "Gecko Master" pointed it out.

nyc jk 02:00 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
also ML, as a couple folks here pointed out earlier, 40/50 area a bit of chart support, I covered my short ahead of that earlier today, so I guess other people looking at that area as well, at least until tom.

nyc jk 01:58 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
ML - you scooped some in at 50? nice work! I really don't know, friend at a bank just said this fund was buying a good amount, probably gets back up to 90/00 tonight and then we depend on the NFP tom to tell us direction. if anything, I would rather get short on a rally going into the figs tom?

ICT ML 01:54 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
JK...we bot it (AUD) at 50....you think there is enough flow to carry it up from here? Techs say maybe.

ny dm 01:47 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
somebody is buying alot of kiwi with no regard for the price

nyc jk 01:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
andras - big fund bought it on the dip.

Pecs Andras 01:44 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
How come AUD does not collapse after much worse than expected retail number?

van Gecko 01:43 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
morning TarHeel.. indeed, sure looks like they're having a Boxing day sale in September.. get them while they last.. lol

KL KL 01:40 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
So all ready to analyse Bush speech like Al Span speech...looking for jobs improving words like measured pace.....I think tonight figure on NFP will be 100K better than last month but below expectation....150K. What is interesting is eurusd have started to move lower...maybe 122 is too hard and 117 easier..

Calabash TarHeel 01:29 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko
Little roast Goose served with Kiwi sauce does sound rather tasty.

china qq 01:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
hi..guys... how many ppl gonna agree U.S. econ. Stats. favor for U.S. dollar.. ? ...... in my personal point, i believe, Mr. Bush will surport the U.S. econ. Stats. and U.S. dollar will still climb up higher...and u? thx

Ldn 01:27 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   

New Yukos warning after $2.6bn ruling

http://news.ft.com/censored/s/7dc95b92-fd1b-11d8-ab9f-00000e2511c8.html

GVI Jay 01:26 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (FXA)

It seems like an eternity since the US employment data, namely payrolls, was at all predictable. Well it was not that long ago...until January there were about 3 years of consecutive monthly declines in non-farm payrolls. And payrolls have grown on average about 175,000 a month since January. Easy enough. The economy seems to be weakening, or so the thinking goes, so shade down the average...hence 150,000 expected. Not sure the "rigorous" model crowd is generating more accurate estimates. But the problem is that the data points in the last 7 months have been anything but clustered around the mean as in a normal distribution. So economists forecasts on payrolls are little better in recent months than a randomly generated number. See our new research section for the full FXA update CLICK HERE

van Gecko 01:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Gondomar fxbasilio 22:56..:)) Going to tell Grandma you're ready to cook the Goose down at the fx silo too?

wisconsin tim 00:59 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers (six if one went to Harvard).
Edgar R. Fiedler

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.
Edgar R. Fiedler

Syd 00:46 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Decent Buying Noted In Early Asia ifr

Livingston nh 00:38 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
the President is advised of every significant economic statistic the night before it is released // this speech tonight is a "vision" speech with a rehash of where we have been - payroll figures are not significant enough for specific mention but there will be a broad reference to a resilient economy in the face of overwhelming adversity - he is preaching to the choir tonight - it is a Pep rally

Like every NFP number it will be spun and the market will buy the spin or pass //

Sydney Alimin 00:33 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
morning guys, looks like the giant euro black hole is sucking everything again
will be interesting if we still trade this level into NFP, allowing 200 pips movement either way will mean we are still within this dreadful summer range after data!

Prague JV 00:23 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
If I was him , I would . would'nt you?

Ldn ;-) 00:14 GMT September 3, 2004 Reply   
Reuters Reports That Bush Won"t "Sneak A Peak"

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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