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Forex Forum Archive for 09/04/2004

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Global-View Research 20:36 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Limited employment recovery - INVESTICA Ltd

The US economic data has been slightly weaker than expected, but the overall evidence has been inconclusive. There will, therefore, be further short-term uncertainties over growth and concerns that the economy could falter during the fourth quarter will continue. The payroll report was also not strong enough to dispel doubts over Fed policy in September, but the most likely outcome is another 0.25% rate increase. These factors should help support the dollar, especially with Euro-zone growth uninspiring. The dollar is, however, likely to face tougher conditions in the fourth quarter, especially if consumer spending falters. A renewed increase in oil prices would also unsettle the US currency and increase the market focus on structural weaknesses such as the trade deficit... See the full update in our Research Section CLICK HERE

sar jf 17:42 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 16:20 GMT September 4, 2004
you should join gvi and speak with people who deal in the real mkt and are knowledgible not someone who has been in the market 2 weeks and is paid 30 k a year to answer phones - that is the silliest thing ive ever heard - no offence to you i know the looney told u that but he has no clue

Athens 16:48 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Re Dynex DC 04:48 GMT August 25, 2004
and a real gem
8 July 1997
Plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose.
Also: Athens' first day on the GV Forum

Dynex DC, I don't know what you had in mind when you posted that because the link to "8 July 1997" doesn't work. One thing is for sure, it's been a very long time and I am much older and more tired (smiles)..

Athens 16:21 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Paying a visit after more than a month to just say hello to the forum. Going through some of the recent postings I notices that there have been quite a few participants posting from Athens these days. Regarding my general market view, I still stick to what I wrote here at the beginning of this year, 2004 won't be a trending year but one of a long lasting consolidation. More than six months have already passed since February's USD bottom and correction and I have found no good reason thus far to change that old view.

Beijing Laowen 16:20 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 14:16 GMT September 4, 2004 //
I also feel what I related is very funny. The story about Soros was told by a dealer of my brokerage firm. GL and GT

Beijing Laowen 16:18 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT September 4, 2004 //

EURGBP looked toppish since early last week. But this pair moves so slow that I am now try trading GBP/CHF instead,whose range was raely smaller than 100 pips every day.

wisconsin tim 14:59 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
actually the cancel if gap through could actually help you as well. I remember a data day a few months back where the price jumped up 80 pips then proceeded to tank down 150 pips

if you wouldn't have been cancelled on up move you would of been looking at a big loss when they then stopped you out ... and you would of had no position going the other way

sar jf 14:21 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 14:16 GMT September 4, 2004
go and see how much capital some of these places actually have - and realise who you are trading with

sar jf 14:16 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Laowen 07:22 GMT September 4, 2004
this is the funniest post ive seen

Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Very nice CABA!!! THAT straddle trade certainly worked!!! I purposely stayed out of USD based pairs and had EUR/GBP short. TP was filled when data was announced.

Jiangmen yinzi 10:39 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Here are forecasted highs and lows together with suggested buy and sell points for Aug September 3rd, 2004.
Listed after the currency pair is the forecasted low/high for the day, the suggested buy/sell points, the suggested stop and the forecasted low/high for the week.

1 EUR/USD 1.2005 1.2118 sell 1.2100 1.1960/ 1.2150
2 GBP/USD 1.7700 1.7880 sell 1.7870 1.7490/ 1.7954
3 AUD/USD 0.6820 0.6980 sell 0.6980 0.6800/ 0.7000
4 USD/CHF 1.2640 1.2800 sell 1.2640 1.2580/ 1.2900
5 USD/CAD 1.2930 1.3080 sell 1.2970 1.2950/1.3200
6 USD/JPY 109.20 111.20 sell 109.20 108.90/ 111.80

These forecasts are for reference only.
Good luck to everybody!!
Guangdong, China
Yinzi

Beijing Laowen 07:22 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
FloridA vv 06:13 GMT September 4, 2004 //

Agreed! xxxx is among those who commit to execute at the designated price on stop orders. I ever talked about this with different brokers. They said sometimes some brokers can keep their word to return to the clients the loss caused by slippage,but only applicable to the small acounts below 50K USD deposit. They never dare to commit exact execution on the stop orders placed by giant names like Soros because they cannot pay for it.

All in all, I think it is better for us who are small accounts to get used to the real world's slippage and adjust our strategies.

I was told that in 1998 when FED,BOJ intervened USD/JPY, the real price gap was 5 big figures! Soros lost hundreds of million USD in that event because his stop orders were filled with so big a slippage - 500 pips!

Jeddah abb 06:15 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
can some one to tell me please
what level these pairs usd/cad, eur/cad and aud/cad what level can reach after Bank of Canada Interest rate Decision next week, on all cases (if keep 2% or increse 2.25%).

FloridA vv 06:13 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Have something to add: xxxx has or had that policy of execution at a price u requested, and once I had a talk with them when my trades were closed smthing abt. 40 pips below s/l, they ran a check and returned my money. Though the same talk I had with the XXXX. And they never agreed to return 170 pips saying market was too fast and my s/l were in the gap. Since than I keep on with the first one.
Make ur pick
See you next week

Beijing Laowen 05:53 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver BC, to have a broker who commit to guarantee stop prices is the ideal of all FX players, however, per my experience no broker can guarantee to execute your stop orders exactly at the designated stop price, especially when your designated price was very close to the market 1 minute before the news was released. Shorting EUR/USD at a stop price @1.2120 on Friday after NFM figures and the order was filled was no surprise because that price was already 50+ pips lower than before the news was announced. My stop order to enter a short eur/usd @1.2155 was also filled but with a slippage of 10 pips at 1.2145. The price just prior to the news was 1.2175~1.2197.

I have been interested in the execution and price guaranteeing for the recent two months as I changed my trading habbit from a position trading to a intraday trading,which requires more exact stop and entry prices than before. I have tried quite a few brokers by using their demo account, studying their policies and talking with their sales with focus on their execution guaranteeing.

My conclusion is that no broker dares to guarantee 100% execution at the exact stop prices in extreme market conditions including those after the fundamental announcements.

After getting this conclusion, I seriously reviewed on my intrday strategies and tried to refrain from placing orders at a time nearby any big event occurs.

Per my recent browsing of different brokers, X, Y and Z commit to execute stop orders exactly at the designated prices, bu X and Y have a remark that this guarantee does not apply in a extreme market conditions where the price moves very fast. :-D does not have this remark and their demo account cannot show the real fact regarding the fulfilment of the stop orders.

What we expect should be that the slippage be as small as possible, which depends on which bank the broker is trading with. All orders from the clients are executed inter bank by most brokers, except for a few of them who digest some internally by hedging opposite orders between different clients. We should not have extravagant hopes that any broker can fulfil your stop orders 100% exactly at the designated.

I'd like to repeat my concusion that if an intrady strategy is too perfect based on exact execution orders, fence with it! One should leave safe margin for the broker.

All IMHO. GL and GT

Vancouver BC WLV 02:58 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Now how do we say names here without getting censored?

Vancouver BC WLV 02:55 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas DH: I started in Forex trading with xxxxx, they don't guarantee stops. One time the market went crazy and gapped up, my stoploss was ignored... a good thing it gapped right back in a few seconds but I wasn't able to close the position because the trade was "frozen". I have to open a hedge position and call them on the phone to close my positions.
After this experience, I switched to censored or censored. They guarantee stops placed.

wisconsin tim 02:21 GMT September 4, 2004 Reply   
ok now i feel stupid =D

bahrain your levels don't always "wrap" the possible day range (ie. both values could be above the high and the low for the next day) hence the error in testing since i just used the xls from my system which always starts outside the possible day range

 




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