Forex Forum Archive for 09/05/2004

Va Raven 23:59 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
london chippie - Appreciated, mate, cheers!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:52 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
It's about time AB wakes up!!
I talk to u guys latter

london chippie 23:51 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
VA raven.... long = buy ----- short = sell .....when ppl talk about ccy pairs......... they are shorting eur/usd ... what they mean is selling eur /buying dollar.........now relate that to usd/cad.....

i know this isnt the help forum chaps....please excuse me...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:49 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
MADRID ANG ///
Better to short GBP/Yen right here!!!
Go ahead man...
I am always wrong...use me a research tool!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:44 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
MADRID ANG 23:41 GMT September 5, 2004
So better to sell gbpusd for next weeks///
Yes!!...
a 3 put option strik 1.74

london 23:43 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
US recovery 'not helping workers'

MADRID ANG 23:41 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
So better to sell gbpusd for next weeks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:37 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Notice friends over the next few days...
Cable will be really slow
That confirms my post about the next three months

houston st 23:34 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   

the one item of concern I have this month is the semi-annual repatriation of yen in September....BC stated in August that it should get some support this month...gl/gt.

Calabash TarHeel 23:34 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
NYC PCM 23:18 GMT September 5, 2004
EUR/USD

As expected we broke downwards on Friday as the upward retrace out of the small cycle low ran out of steam.

We are now heading down into the next 'nest" of cyclical lows due in the 3rd week of September. an early target for that low is 11619

Don't have a time frame, but looking at 1.1667 as the next landing pad.

Gl,Gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:26 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
MADRID ANG 23:16 GMT September 5, 2004 //
I wish I can agree with you...
I just can not do that.
Longer term cycles will break the small ones..
Cable droped 10 fig...still short?...Hard for me accept!!!

GOES B747 23:21 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
if chart rules than next week brings:

EUR/USD: long for 250pips
USD/JPY: short for 350pips
GBP/JPY: short for 450pips
USD/CHF: short for 250pips

better to wait for another 24HRS as things could go bit of any range, natue (miami & japan) with nukes (Iran, India,Pakistan) and global terror treats may call to define charts.

gt

NYC PCM 23:18 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

As expected we broke downwards on Friday as the upward retrace out of the small cycle low ran out of steam.

We are now heading down into the next 'nest" of cyclical lows due in the 3rd week of September. an early target for that low is 11619.

MADRID ANG 23:16 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP IS MUCH WEAKER THAN USD, SO WHY BUYING GBPUSD??? I THINK THIS WEEK WILL BE SHORT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:13 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
any agree?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:10 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
3 months ---> GBP/USD...DONOT SHort
if U work with non risky margin...Buy it and keep till 1.8650

GOES B747 23:05 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
good night,

the coming week opting two ranges:

(1) Greenspan & Deficit (250pips)
(2) Geo-politics (+++600pips)


Picture will get clear during the next 24HRS, meanwhile safe trading to all.


gt

MADRID ANG 23:05 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD DAILY CHART IS BELOW 20 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE AND NOT REACHING YET DOWN BOLLINGER BAND...I AGREE EUR WILL BE THIS WEEK CLOSE TO 1.1850 OK?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 23:02 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
houston st 22:51 GMT September 5, 2004
///
Thanks
Eur/usd..for me should rally this week
Maybe from 1.1950 to 1.23 area...(Slow I think)
I am Buying Tues session (NY)

wisconsin tim 22:55 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
SURE

MADRID ANGELHG 22:51 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF EURUSD THIS WEEK??? PROBABLY SHORT??? DUE TO NONFARN PAYROLL LAST FRIDAY???

houston st 22:51 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   

BAHRAIN -- I just told you why...I was curious...primarily because I know there have been several here in the past that have been touting their recommendations and then some of their followers found out they were just demo/paper trading...I was trying to recall if that was you or someone else that just traded strictly demo and now I remember who it is...continued success with your calls and your system...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:45 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Live acct
Why?

houston st 22:41 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   

BAHRAIN -- do you trade a live account, demo, or some other type...just curious...tia and gl/gt.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:38 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Buying GBP/Yen at dips (195.50) for keeps to 199 level

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:35 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD I am Shorting this ratio at 1.31 area
That's all

Va Raven 22:27 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
If I have trouble to understand the basic concept of trading, sell/buy or long/short, then I would be careful with any recommendation/suggestion I might introduce to the forum..... No, I would simply read and learn.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:22 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
yes
NZ Should be a buy area .6380 +/- 30 to
0.670 area
Good rally for a month

houston st 22:20 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   

NY Raider19 22:14 GMT -- left you a reply on the Help Forum...good trades.

Va Raven 22:15 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Then you are buying cad, not selling.......

NY Raider19 22:14 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
High Risk Markets //// BTW, I understand the dynamics of spot FX. But when the disparities approach MAJOR amounts of over 20 points, and we are not talking time differentials of seconds or minutes, etc. We are talking about completely different high/lows and movements altogether, period. Some high/lows do not simply show up period from certain sources of the magnitude of 50+ points...

Va Raven 22:14 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
The you are buying cad, not selling.......

Malaga boqueron 22:13 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Any AUDNZD traders out there willing to comment on this cross. Thinking of going long at these levels with a S/L below 1,0600.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:12 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
yes

Va Raven 22:08 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips - Assume you were talking about usd/cad, you mean sell it from 1.31?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 22:05 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
I think Cad is still sell on any gains this week..probably short it this week around 1.31 area

sar jf 22:03 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
raider - read the fine print - you are being offered a representation of the market not the real market because brokers are not banks - they can price anyway they want until regulation is in place to stop them

NY Raider19 21:55 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
High Risk Markets //// I posted a comment on the Help Forum re the immediate post-NFP price movement. I am surprised that there has been little discussion of this. Any comments would be highly appreciated.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 21:51 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold has sort of an abs level ---> I think year High to be around 420 area.
I think gold is over within 2 months
Probably approching a sell level for three to 4 years

Va Raven 21:47 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Indeed usd/cad is wild last week in terms of its strange strength..... that's the nature of that pair and it turns at the moment that is least likely. So I am not to go short on that pair.
The coming BoC meeting is a lose-lose event for cad anyway.

Syd EM 21:44 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Home loans explode
THE Reserve Bank faces the biggest monthly surge in home loan approvals in more than a decade when official figures are reported on Wednesday, the same day it is expected to confirm interest rates are on hold for another month

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 21:43 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
412 if held Longer

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 21:41 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Might pick up from this level
408 if held for some time

Syd EM 21:40 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
The Australian

The number of home loan approvals in Australia rose strongly in July 2004. Information from major banks indicates that loan approvals rose by 9.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted. This will increase speculation that the property market is recovering its strength.
RBA meet 4th September.

nyc tony 21:11 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Addendum to my previous post:

A quick glimpse and there is far too much ground to cover for the pound to break the trend line. Will check some further numbers to find confirmation level but none the less the pound showing signs of life will be the key to the scenario noted.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:52 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
I think the big guys will enter MKT late Tues.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:44 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
PT 1.73 stop at 1.7490

sar jf 20:41 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
10 pips ok - that got down 250 points- how far is the stop on that ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:38 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 20:16 GMT September 5, 2004 //
Thanks :)...
Sort of just buying for 24 Hours

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:36 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Yes...still short Eur/Aus

sar jf 20:32 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
10 pips u still short eur.aud ?

CAIRO AG 20:16 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain// hello from Cairo.... Think 1.5305 will offer a better LONG entry with a stop below 1.5270...IMO

GL & GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 20:07 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Eur/chf might be buy here

GA TJ 19:24 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 18:34 GMT September 5, 2004
nyc tony 17:48 GMT September 5, 2004


It does seem that there are quite a few contradictions at the moment. That CAD and AUD thing caused a few synapse to misfire in my noggin. And I am not sure the picture will clear up over the next few days. Going to spend a little time later to think about playing the crosses instead of the majors. Whatever I decide to do I will play with smaller posi size and maybe even tighter stops.
The other thing I am thinking about is the possibility of some craziness happening as the summer silly season comes to end. Will a trend be established or not? Will the battle cause a lot of whips and contradictions? Heck if I know.

ICT ML 18:34 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc tony 17:48 GMT September 5, 2004
That works with us, as we targeted 1.2675 on the goose when it broke under 1.3450.

Found it odd that the $CAD and AUD$ were selling off at the same time, which caused some head scratching for the Euro and Pound direction.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (S/L = 10*Spread) 18:12 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Currency 09/05/04 14:09 Short Long Short_C Long_C
EURUSD 1.2308 1.1424 1.2138 1.1948
USDJPY 113.0236 105.0042 111.3881 109.4679
GBPUSD 1.8087 1.6948 1.7866 1.7636
USDCHF 1.3035 1.1987 1.2826 1.2593
EURCHF 1.5452 1.5006 1.5370 1.5261
AUDUSD 0.7091 0.6429 0.6981 0.6824
USDCAD 1.3263 1.2451 1.3103 1.2916
NZDUSD 0.6661 0.5974 0.6546 0.6387
EURGBP 0.6887 0.6577 0.6821 0.6751
EURJPY 136.3309 126.0432 134.2504 131.9308
GBPJPY 200.6053 186.0764 197.7490 194.5953
CHFJPY 89.1966 82.1255 87.7469 86.0923
GBPCHF 2.2949 2.1694 2.2724 2.2436
EURAUD 1.7832 1.6717 1.7577 1.7278
EURCAD 1.5947 1.4989 1.5755 1.5543
AUDCAD 0.9180 0.8436 0.9058 0.8884
AUDJPY 78.1020 71.9117 76.9896 75.5331

nyc tony 17:48 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Short week approaching and I am thinking about doing what I never should, contra trading. I have always posted that I like to use the goose as an indicator, it is very tough b/c it obviously doesn't apply quite often and the trick is identifying when it does. I believe it does here and will go to 1.27 before any significant move above 1.30. This would correspond with the euro holding above 1.20. The censored child in this scenario is the pound and will have to get healthy quickly. A break of the daily down trend will confirm this scenario. all imvho. good trades

wisconsin tim 16:36 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
projections for tomorrow: personally staying flat since holiday

Date Currency Close R1 Close S1 R1 High S1 Low
9/3/2004 AUDUSD 0.6942 0.6854 0.7009 0.6831
9/3/2004 EURGBP 0.6814 0.6770 0.6837 0.6741
9/3/2004 EURUSD 1.2104 1.1993 1.2232 1.1985
9/3/2004 EURYEN 133.70 132.60 133.88 131.55
9/3/2004 GBPUSD 1.7817 1.7640 1.7981 1.7635
9/3/2004 GBPYEN 196.84 195.05 196.91 193.80
9/3/2004 NDZUSD 0.6494 0.6410 0.6566 0.6395
9/3/2004 USDCAD 1.3036 1.2941 1.3068 1.2913
9/3/2004 USDCHF 1.2777 1.2654 1.2782 1.2534
9/3/2004 USDYEN 110.98 110.04 111.14 108.75

Haifa ac 11:16 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
Any Japanese trader? what is the real effect of the earth quack?!
I hear 6.8 and fear of tzunami?!

Beijing Laowen 10:29 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
sar jf 17:42 GMT September 4, 2004 //
I've already been in GVI for some time. Thanks~

London 04:25 GMT September 5, 2004 Reply   
SECURITY SCARE CLOSES LOS ANGELES AIRPORT

Los Angeles International Airport had to be shut down for more than four hours, after a reported security breach. Officials evacuated four terminals on Labour Day weekend, one of the busiest travel holidays of the year, after a person bypassed security. In a separate incident at the airport's international terminal a flashlight in a bag blew up in a screener's hand. Federal officials say no terrorism is suspected.